Dear friends,
Today I sharing with you a document which I personally consider as absolutely crucial: an in-depth analysis of the China-Russia Strategic Alliance (RCSA) written by somebody who looks at it from the “Chinese side”. I want to tell you a few words about how this document came into existence.
I was talking with Larchmonter 445 about the development in Russia when I realized that a lot of his arguments centered around the relationship between China and Russia and when I probed him further I realized that he knew a lot about it. Not only that, but he had come to the exact same conclusions about the RCSA as I had, but he came to the from the other, Chinese, side. That’s when I asked him to write a short analysis of this topics, and Larchmonter 445 agreed. Except that is as a perfectionist workaholic and his short analysis ended up 25 pages long and with 39 footnotes! As a result, what I can now share with you is a comprehensive survey of all the officially known components of the RCSA (you can bet that there are many more which I kept secret!).
I find Larchmonter 445’s image of a double helix particularly appropriate because what we are witnessing here is the birth of a new geopolitical “life form” so to speak, an informal alliance of two countries which goes much deeper than most regular alliances do: what we are seeing is the mutual agreement to establish a full-spectrum geostrategic symbiosis between two civilizational realms as both Russia and China are what used to be called ’empires’ in the past but which today are what I call “civilizational realms”: multi-ethnic, multi-national and multi-religious ex-empires whose influence extends beyond their current national borders and whose international strategic “weight” makes far more akin to continents then to countries.
Make no mistake, what we are seeing is something unprecedented in history and it is much more than just an “alliance”. After all, an alliance can easily be broken and country A can decide to switch from an alliance with country B to an alliance with country C. In the case of the RCSA what we are seeing is something much more akin to the birth of Siamese twins: in a geopolitical tectonic shift, Russia and China have decided to be shared not just “at the hip”, but with many “vital organs and systems” including energy and defense, of course, but also their economies and long term development policies. Each symbiont will keep its own head and brain, but they will share “torsos”.
I would argue that this is by far the single most important political development since the end of WWII and probably the most important one in this century: it is hard to overstate the implications of what this means and Obama’s famous “pivot” to Asia is completely dwarfed and, really, rendered utterly irrelevant by this new reality: typically, while the Obama roared and barked, Putin and Xi Jinping quietly, but profoundly, changed the planetary equilibrium. I wonder if somebody will dare tell the White House.
I urge you all to carefully read Larchmonter 445′ White Paper and to keep it for future reference (in particular all the recent developments he lists). Since it was too long to post here, I have made it available for download from Mediafire in ZIP, ODT, DOCX and PDF file formats. You can find the link to the Mediafire directory right under Larchmonter 445’s introductory remarks below.
A big THANK YOU to Larchmonter 445!
I hope that you will enjoy this great read.
Cheers,
The Saker
——-
Introduction by Larchmonter 445:
Saker asked me if I could provide an article regarding China and Russia. I told him that I thought the entwining of the two was far deeper and meaningful than ‘deals’ for commodities and weapons. He added that the two militaries had gone through highly unique, for the two nations, training and had scheduled more for next year to push their integration capabilities.
I felt that what I had learned studying China for over a dozen years, the relationship was qualitatively unique in international history, far from just a special partnership category. There was a bonding in process. Double Helix was, to my mind, an ideal metaphor. Thus, the article became a large presentation. But the two nations are two of the largest and the bonding in process is comprehensive. To give it light, it took length and some depth.
One other note, I could have added another 20-30 footnotes, but it is another purpose of the philosophy of the Vineyard, as Saker has expressed, for the visitors, readers, commenters and participants do research of their own, contribute material and facts dug up and shared. In other words, one voice does not make anything authoritative and final. I agree. In the spirit of Orthodox practice, challenge whatever you find in error or doubt.
I found it best to read in pdf on my iPad. Merry Christmas, Happy Holidays and remember to donate to the Saker. He uses most of 18 hours a day of nearly every day to make this blog work for you. The Vineyard is our megaphone and resource in the resistance to hegemony and the destruction of life and human values. Chip in with ‘green ammo’
Larchmonter 445
Mediafire download directory:
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/fpid1fhd6nv59/China_Russia_Double_Helix
Some errata: page 4: ‘Czech apples’ -> ‘Polish apples’.
very very auspicious… again… thanks a lot!
The net effect of Western Sanctions against Russia and currency speculation that sent the ruble in a downward spiral has been for China to step in and provide “muscle” and wisdom.
What China has done with both Russia and Argentina is to increase bilateral trade in their own currencies. This has had the desired effect of arresting the volatility in Russia’s and Argentina’s currency.
It works like so, first the speculators sell futures shorting the ruble, but China buys rubles to pay for russian goods in rubles. The speculators’ futures shorting rubles are worth less and less now so that their business dries up as China has the “muscle” to overwhelm them.
Next thing that Russia could do is for the EU to pay for Natural Gas in rubles, gold or yuan. The net effect is that those shorting the ruble are left holding worthless paper.
What most observers are saying is that this has accelerated the exodus from the US dollar system for the BRICS and emerging markets.
Why is China, while dominated by self interest and pragmatism, so interested in propping up embattled Russia in this Western attack?
1) Economic synergies. Russia has vast energy and mineral sources that China needs
2) China is not a maritime country and thus it doesn’t have a blue water navy to rival the USA. Evidently China wants to increase trade by rail in Central Asia and extend it to Europe. This keeps the US with its huge blue water navy virtually out of China’s business
3) Russia and China’s defence industry are intertwined. China has limited access to Western military technology and know how and has always relied on Russian jet engines.
4) China shares a long border with Russia and would not like to have a balkanized Russia friendly to US at its doorstep
5) China shares the same wahhabi islamic terror separatism forces with Russia and India.
6) China correctly interprets that in its quest for wide spectrum domination the US empire attack against Russia is a stepping stone for its pivot to Asia.
For these reasons, expect China to be on Russia’s corner.
It looks like nobody explained to Mr. Obama that in order to bring down Putin, he needs to bring down China at the same time and that is a tall order.
Just by saying it was willing to intervene sent the futures that were shorting the ruble, tumbling. The ruble recovered ground and stabilized.
The New stealth fighter that China is testing depends on russian jet engines to name only one known defense related project synergy.
They are also buying Russian subs, Sukhoi 35, the S-400 anti aircraft missile and will surely be interested in acquiring the upcoming S-500.
But for my money there are three even more important reasons for China to stand 100% by Russia.
a) If there ever was regime change in Moscow, and a US stooge entered the Kremlin, then China would be surrounded on all sides and the act of destabilizing her would then become easy. The days of the Chinese Communist Party would be numbered. Not only that, but the days of China as an economic powerhouse would also be over. The country would then be broken up into a South East China, an inner Mongolia, a Manchuria, a Tibet, a Xinyang and what have you.
b) Russia is not only a very big potential new market (along with most ex Soviet States) and her natural resources are not only of massive economic benefit to China, but also of potentially life saving strategic value since oil supplies from the Middle East could be blocked by the American Navy.
c) The Chinese openly admit that they need Russia’s superior diplomatic experience.
re: economic blow back. Even Yahoo financials is beginning to question Obama’s European sanctions:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/fallout-obama-russia-strategy-spreading-110000192.html
DEC 22 just up
pepe escobar “empire of chaos”.
19 minutes
Pepe ESCOBAR – Blowback after blowback for the “Empire of Chaos”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NRYJ2ctBLHI
Meanwhile in west. Arrogance veiling terrible situation looming behind the scenes of economic situation.
Read this one:
http://www.awarablogs.com/study-on-real-gdp-growth-net-of-debt/
“The Western countries have lost the capacity to grow their economies. All they have left is a capacity to pile up debts. By massively accumulating new debt, they are able to keep up a semblance of at least sluggish growth, or of hovering around the zero growth mark. “
http://www.awarablogs.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/gdp_chart1.png
http://www.awarablogs.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/gdp_chart4.png
“The USA is leading the pack with an increase in the debt load in years 2004 to 2013 of USD 9.8 trillion (in the chart in euros, EUR 7 trillion). In those years, the growth of the USA public debt exceeded the GDP growth 5 times (500%), which is illustrated by Chart 5, comparing the proportion of growth of debt to that of growth of GDP.
The comparison of growth of debt to growth of GDP reveals the UK, as the country that has amassed the most amount of new debt relative to GDP growth, having a new-debt-to-GDP-growth ratio of 9 to 1; in other words UK has taken on 900% new debt relative to the GDP growth. But the picture is grim for all the Western countries surveyed, less so for Germany, while Russia’s debt increase amounts to only a fraction of the GDP growth. “
GREAT (!!!!!) summary! Sincere and massive thanks from a swedish reader for this outstanding summary. I will pay back by donating to the Saker blog as the author suggested, in a few days when I’ve gotten my salary and have an estimate on how much I have left after necessary Christmas purchases. Great stuff, this!
This white paper needs to be crammed down the throat of every tool who did a complete volte face vis a vis Obama’s version of Imperial Maintenance.
For years I listened to apparent hypocrites cry about Bush and his abuse of the law. Now when their boy gets a turn, they are strangely supportive of more or less the same tactics!
What this shows, more than anything is: the Right-Left paradigm in the USSA is a phony ploy to keep people divided and fighting. Sure one side might be more permissive about gay-rights and abortion and torture than the other, but when it comes down to issues that matter, rather than cosmetic differences – both corporate parties are quite the same. It took me only paying attention to politics for the full 8 years of the right-leaning Bush II reign, and now a half-dozen of the left-leaning corporate tool of Obama to see this. I am more amazed at the strength of the propaganda to get people to cheer for things they despised simply because the person they voted for is doing it. And not just typical carefree sheep, but intelligent people. Idiots always made me mad, but now it’s good friends and family who turned into Kool-Aid true believers and it’s sad that they don’t see themselves similar to the people they made fun of from 2001-2008.
-Farflungstar
Zio Occupied AmeriKa
http://news.yahoo.com/us-seeks-overthrow-venezuela-government-official-234048242.html
Caracas (AFP) – Tighter new US sanctions against Venezuela are aimed to foment violent unrest to try to overthrow President Nicolas Maduro, his defense minister said Saturday.
“This US interference is aimed at promoting violence… against our institutions” to oust staunch US critic Maduro, Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino told Telesur television.
further to my last post:
I guess everyone wants to feel like they are on the winning side once in awhile, and I guess people change and get stupid with age, sellout their principles and beliefs and backbones and their ability to tell right from wrong (Or at least not-so-right).
I’m glad for like-minded people on here on VoS, ICH, MoA…the hypocrites and the dumbasses everywhere really get me down sometimes. Stupidity is not uniquely AmeriKan, but boy, we sure put our own special shine on THAT.
Farflungstar
Zio Occupied AmeriKa
An excellent paper Larchmonter 445 thank you!.
Dismantling an empire takes time,it took America 60 years and two world wars to settle Britains status and dismantle her empire “as peaceably as possible”.
Little is being said about the new canal being built by China through Nicaragua,making the Panama canal redundant,we can expect a colour revolution to put a halt to that project perhaps?
cheers.
Larchmonter445 and Saker, thanks a lot for writing this article about this interesting topic and for providing it on this blog. I’ve downloaded the text and will read it carefully during the Christmas holidays. Donation is on the way.
In my home village there is a poor Internet access, so this is my last post this year. I wish the whole Saker community a merry Christmas and a happy and peaceful new year.
Very interesting read, well done. Hope this spreads.
Let’s all remember that on May 2, 2014, as the Odessa event went down, Merkel and Obama made an appearance on the White House lawn. For her part, Merkel declined to take any action re the NSA. For his part, Obama basically restated his intention to attack Russia. Merkel and Obama are the epitome of modern Nazism. Never forget, because their party is coming soon to a house near you.
Vineyardofthesaker
Favourite: Username of the Year, Farflungstar.
” Commentator of the year, too many to cite.
” Statesman/politician of the Year, Sergey Lavrov
” Soldier of the year, (daren’t say Strelkov), all those amazing fighters for freedom and truth in the Ukraine.
” Editor of the year The Saker
Saker, you don’t believe the following quote, so why have it on featured on the website?
“Roger Waters
“I am prepared to die, but there is no cause for which I am prepared to kill. I object to violence because when it appears to do good, the good is only temporary; the evil it does is permanent.”
Sure, let the Kiev junta Nazi puppets cleanse Ukraine of Russians. Preventing that would be a mere “temporary good.” Lay down you arms Novorussia.
And this one is the worst:
“Malcolm X
“Globalize the Intifada!”
As an Orthodox Christian here in America, you’re not winning any friends here by associating with black Muslims like the one who murdered two cops today. Muslims go home. Only an iron fist like that of Putin’s will keep Islam in line. We don’t have that, in fact a black crypto-Muslim racist doing everything in power to bring Islamists to power throughout the world.
Great paper by Larchmonter 445, enjoyed reading it!
“Those friends thou hast, and their adoption tried, grapple them to thy soul with hoops of steel.”
W Shakespeare
@Anonymous:
It took my a while to decide which part of your post I should single out as the dumbest. There was so much to pick from! From the mis-attribution of the quote of Ghandi to Waters, to the idiotic statement about Muslims killing cops to the epic “Muslims go home”. I think the last one is the winner though, as it implies that
1) there is a “Muslim home” Muslims have to go to
2) that somehow some other groups belongs here (and I doubt very much that you meant Native Americans)
3) to the ludicrous idea that writing that would get any cred on this blog.
Dear Anonymous, are this perfect example of the mix of arrogance, stupidity, crass ignorance, bigotry and self-righteous pomposity which makes blogging at times so frustrating. How does one deal with a moron like you? My instincts tell me that I just ought to toss your comment into /dev/null, and I usually do, but I hate letting you spew this shit without challenging you. Then what? Take it apart, statement by statement? But why? Not for your benefit (you have no need of knowledge) and its not like anybody else will agree with your nonsense.
Maybe I just ought to tell you to go back to watching Fox News or the Porn Channel, but they I get all the whiners who tell me that I am not being “nice” to you. Ah, if only we met in person… then I would let my hands do all the talking and you would most definitely get my message.
Even though I do believe that Good is the biggest force in the universe, I cannot single handedly take on #2 and #3 (Evil and Stupidity), especially when they are married in such a wonderful combo as your post.
So, it appears that you win, dear anonymous, I give up, I surrender. You win!
I have quite literally nothing to say to you.
Most sincerely,
The Saker
Well I have ONE thing to say to him:
Americans go home. Stay home. Fix yourselves.
Bomb yourselves for all I care – just stop bombing others.
Destroy your country for all I care – just stop destroying the countries of others.
Search for the soul you have lost and find your humanity again.
Because you are the monsters under the bed.
I’ve learned from history that sometimes countries harm their own self-interest from stupidity of their ruling elites.But hoping that this won’t happen in this case.I’d say few countries could gain more from each other’s friendship than China and Russia.The only others I can think off now are Germany and Russia.And history has shown they are the perfect example of the first point about ruling elites harming their own interests.
A strong stable Russia assures China of a protected north.Something a country like China needs for the future.Russian natural resources can be a vital help to China.And co-operation in defense makes the difference in China being able to defend herself from a US assault.
For Russia a strong stable China on her Asian border assures Russia of not having to worry about that huge border region.Remember it was Stalin learning Japan didn’t intent to join in Hitler’s attack on the USSR that allowed him to move Siberian armies to Moscow and defeat the nazi attack.Without those forces the USSR might have fallen to the nazi attacks.As well as the unbelievable strength of China’s growth is a ready market for Russian exports.And able to replace almost any imports that now come from the West.Truly a marriage made in heaven.
The hubris of the West has literally been the matchmaker in that marriage.I think (hopefully) it woke them both up to the Western danger they both face.And as a US rebel leader said during the American Revolution about the joining together of the Colonies “if we fail we will hang together instead of separately”.It is clear as glass that the US wants to destroy both Russia and China.And if they don’t work together,they will “hang separately”.
Uncle Bob
Events in Kiev – December 2014 edition.
Chronicles of the Collapse of Kiev – Edition 2014-1
http://bread-circuses-today.blogspot.co.uk/2014/12/chronicles-of-collapse-of-kiev-edition.html
This is a great article and explain a lot of the interactions between Russia and China.
It also shows why India now is so important to the US. India is very similar to a poor underdeveloped US. What I mean by that is, the government has no control over the people. The police dont even carry fire arms or even a stick. The untouchables and underclass think they have rights.. They have privileges, they have the right to be prevailed. The very same mentality some in the US had before affirmative action was removed. The people elect a government who gives them the most freebies.. hence India can never compete with China on large scale projects like infrastructure.. How can a project even move on when 30 minutes into the work day its tea time then lunch nap time and then tea time before going home..
BUT because an Empire created it and used it as the backbone to keep the empire running, The new empire can fine tune it and change things to keep the current empire working as well. Americans are not capable of handling many of the tedious tasks of running the empire… They need people who are educated but pliable to the dirty tasks that an empire needs done.. And of course it has to be vastly profitable. One of the main reasons why African empires failed is because you can not assign them a job and expect it to get it done.. And they did not have enough whites to supervise them.. How it works for Indians is, you have a manager who supervises a supervisor who tells the boss man what needs to get done.. The boss man tells the coolie to oil the joints and the manager, supervisor and the boss man all looks to see if the coolie is oiling the joints properly..
But not to worry.. After the job is finished there will be 3 sets of inspectors who will certify the oiling job..
As you can see, the Americans have streamlines this and the Indians who work under them are far more efficient.
So the Indians in places like Dubai are not far below the competency levels of Europeans even if the Europeans get 500% higher pay by skin color. But again, Dubai is not a democracy.. The cops carry machine guns.. Executions are common and sentence is passed without a defense..
Just disappointed that Putin could not make do anything short term in india.. I already know Americans can accomplish a lot with a little patience since they have shown how to leverage them.
Saker,
your site is a goldmine. Thanks!
wow – fascinating – it really is a new geopolitical life-form.
A symbiotic living organism being born – many thanks for this :)
Mark
Although I mainly agree with the sentiments of the author I do believe the article way too optimistic in what will be accomplished. Centralized power always seems to corrupt once the elites get a taste.
Holiday wishes to the Saker and all the commentators.
To the Saker:
It seems Putin & Xi do not share some of the more racist thoughts posted above about India and Indian people.
Putin just signed 100 billion dollars of new deals with India – 50 billion alone in nuclear generating stations. Morsi confirmed that Russia will be their #1 defence partner going forward. China meanwhile is expanding their presence by way of huge infrastructure projects.
Instead of a double helix, the image should be a triple helix (or King Solomon’s three strand cord). Both Putin and Xi need Morsi as a balancing force. With only two partners, one is bound to dominate over time, with the inevitable corruption that power brings.
With three partners, there is less harmony but far more balance. A multi-polar world depends on the partnership of the three, not the two.
May India (whose currency along with Brazil is also under attack) take this opportunity to step up to the plate and embrace a radically different future.
“”Isolated”? China Officially Offers Help To “Irreplaceable Strategic Partner” Russia”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-22/isolated-china-officially-offers-help-irreplaceable-strategic-partner-russia
And Reason’s Greetings to one and all :)
In case anyone wants to read it on some ereader here is the epub version. (I only quickly converted it).
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BzTjYw5csIzxN1I3QTBYUWRBLVU/view?usp=sharing
Thanks. Great counterpoint to the US-Canada-EU leadership-Ukraine NEXUS including the Venus (Ukrainian origin) Ishtar Sink analogy.
I believe russia is playing catch-up with china with that touted NG pipeline deal announced signed by putin a few months ago, since it is clear that turkmen gas has all but supplanted russian since the 2009 Central Asia- China NG pipeline was built in 4 years & went online first DEC/2009, then 1 year later the twin came on.
Turkmenistan–not labelled but shown is THE key NG field Galkynysh aka South Byolotan SE part of map:
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-5N1NfzPxhPQ/Te9uhncBBRI/AAAAAAAAH3Y/abyqSlocbq0/s1600/south%2Byolotan%253B%2BTurkmenistan%2BGas%2Bgalore……jpg
this great article on a great site BTW for eurasia energy news with pie chart sums it up well (to save pie chart, open article in “print version” link at top, then right click the .png link near top of article you’ll see of this pie chart, & save).
http://www.eurasianet.org/node/67356
note china still produces about 2/3 of its NG needs internally, only starting importing heavily (tens of Bcm/year) since 2008.
pie chart is 2012, after that major NG pipeline turkm-china opened in 2009/2010. russia only providing 1% of China NG imports.
much gas russia sells to western europe thru gazprom pipelines is actually imported from turkmenistan!
Thank you for the comprehensive paper on the strategic partnership of Russia and China!
The People’s Bank of China and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority are members of the Bank for International Settlement(BIS) Here is the reference. China and Russia are members of the IMF. Reference
China and Russia are members of BIS + IMF. It is my opinion their central banks are governed by the membership rules of the BIS + IMF. Certainly this has been an issue of discussion in the Vineyard this last month of monetary and market turbulence.
China and to a lessor degree Russia are advocating for a change in composition of voting rights in the IMF as well as joining IMF + BIS in balancing a basket of currencies(SDR) to more accurately reflect the weight and composition of the world economies. As you know…the world economy and political system has changed since the USA established and dominated the IMF as an instrument of USD hegemony. The BIS was never an instrument of USA power, but an entity unto itself.
The IMF + BIS are trying to get the US Congress to pass a treaty relinquishing the USA veto and preponderance of voting privilege at the IMF. The US Congress has refused to change the by laws governing the IMF even though the US Treasury has lobbied for the reform. The IMF + BIS will now move forward without the USA to destabilize the USD denominated world markets and to replace the USD as the reserve asset of the Central Banks with SDR as the reserve asset or gold in the case of the ECB. Both Russia and China are proceeding to establish a parallel system as well as bilateral trade agreements settled in local currencies. This returns the world to the cold war of closed systems. I think the strategic partnership of China and Russia will provide the muscle and money to make a peaceful transition from USA hegemony to a new multi polar world system, with one international governing body for international trade settlement.
This is a complex and dynamic topic and I am not an expert. However, I would like to offer an opinion that Russia and China are partners with the IMF + BIS in forcing the USA hegemon to accept the loss of empire and exorbitant privilege by gradually moving away from USD as the world reserve asset and instrument of settlement of international trade balances to an SDR system. |
I am optimistic that the world monetary technocrats(priesthood) of the IMF + BIS backed by the strategic partnership of Russia and China are going to transition to a new world monetary system, while averting thermonuclear war.
I have been pondering whether this new SDR monetary regime cam enable multi-polar world civilizations? Countries will relinquish international monetary sovereignty, which the USD now enjoys. Can a fair and just SDR basket stabilize and maintain world trade without one country gaining exorbitant privilege?
Thank you again Larchmonter 445 and Saker for this excellent work. I will sent a Christmas donation tomorrow to express my appreciation!
Dear Saker,
My gratitude to Larchmonter 445 and yourself in your capacity as editor for this.
There is one aspect which is not elaborated, because most of what has been done is very low key and yet more visibly in Latin America, where the Canal of Nicaragua is being started, a railway in Brazil to the Pacific through the Andes and the Amazonian forest. The Andes has disjointed South America and now this will be no more. Infrastructure in South America is very poor. The other world is Africa, where China is building a railway from South Africa to the North. But what China can do in infrastructure, Russia can provide their new fission thorium reactors. Energy in South America is a big issue. For the Hegemon, both these continents have been frozen for a backyard expoliation, but this condition is untenable. The Hegemon has lost much influence in South and Central America. China and Russia can produce softpowerwise much overdue transformations.
Hi Larchmont. I’m going to get my friend to print it, as I can concentrate better when reading paper not computer screen.
I just read the Q & A of Khazin from a couple of weeks ago,and in there he doesn’t seem to think that Russia and China are “joined at the hip” although I can see from what Saker says in the intro of this thread that, yes they do seem to be joining up. I wonder though, if it were not an emergency that they become joined, whether it wouldn’t be better to be independent…not joined at the hip. And I always think, “if only Germany was free of the carcinoma, then that would be so important for the future of Europeans.
Oh well, I’ll know more after I’ve read it..
@Larchmonter 445
You have loaned the phrase ‘The Hegemon’ from me and I am honoured.
I must confess I borrowed it from Plato:
‘The tyrannical man is the son of the democratic man. He is the worst form of man. He is consumed by lawless desires which cause him to do many terrible things such as murdering someone unjustly. He comes closest to complete lawlessness. The idea of moderation does not exist to him.’
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plato%27s_five_regimes
It is vitally important in the transfer of power from one generation to the next that the power structure does not regress. All powerful nations could end up as the tyrant personifed: The United States
Great article, thanks!
Anon, Roger Waters is only repeating a phrase that was written by Ghandi I think…it might not be Gandhi but its certainly not a Roger Waters original…and as far as your Orthodox Christianity…you’re not a christian buddy. Give up the name…you are post-Christian for sure…the world needs to rid itself, not of Islam but of the mentality you display…
Excellent write-up! Thank you so much from this dispirited Yank with a teenager…I feel these days not so much like a man without a country as a man without a government that even faintly resembles the needs of my country. I’m green with envy.
The described North Korean coup would be a masterstroke. Brilliant.
“There had never been a hegemon so desperate or so fundamentally weak, yet so powerfully equipped to destroy all normalcy, perhaps, most of humanity, if need be, for it to survive.”
Surely the IMF/BIS sees which way the wind is blowing and is poised (with Lagarde’s threatened ‘Plan B’ in light of US Congressional inaction on IMF reforms) to drop a little ‘strategic surprise’ of its own. The BIS is internationalist. America is standing in the way of growth everywhere. The Bankers need growth of any hue (or currency). Their allegiance is hardly to the debt-besotted USD. BRICS is not a parallel IMF wannabe. New global realities will be reflected in the SDR’s revised market basket of currencies. Or is the writer suggesting this a Clean Break? I’m dubious. Not in the intermediate term at least. My question? Is the IMF/BIS a constituent part of the Hegemon. Can’t the latter transcend the current Anglo-Zionist stranglehold? At least the current verbiage from the IMF says ‘yes’.
“The China-Russia plan for international reserved currency is to propose a bundle of currencies, not one, as the dollar serves today. If the IMF does not act favorably, there may be turmoil coming to that system. China has many allies for such a move.”
“Ironically, only the Hegemon’s military will remain.”
I might have used ‘ominously’ in place of ‘ironically’.
“There had never been a hegemon so desperate or so fundamentally weak, yet so powerfully equipped to destroy all normalcy, perhaps, most of humanity, if need be, for it to survive.”
Yes, ‘weak strength’ indeed. The paradox of too-big numbers. I’m still liking ‘ominous’ as I ponder the end-game of a wounded beast with large claws and a centuries-long sense of entitlement. -NB
Excellent write-up! Thank you so much from this dispirited Yank with a teenager…I feel these days not so much like a man without a country as a man without a government that even faintly resembles the needs of my country. I’m green with envy.
The described North Korean coup would be a masterstroke. Brilliant.
“There had never been a hegemon so desperate or so fundamentally weak, yet so powerfully equipped to destroy all normalcy, perhaps, most of humanity, if need be, for it to survive.”
Surely the IMF/BIS sees which way the wind is blowing and is poised (with Lagarde’s threatened ‘Plan B’ in light of US Congressional inaction on IMF reforms) to drop a little ‘strategic surprise’ of its own. The BIS is internationalist. America is standing in the way of growth everywhere. The Bankers need growth of any hue (or currency). Their allegiance is hardly to the debt-besotted USD. BRICS is not a parallel IMF wannabe. New global realities will be reflected in the SDR’s revised market basket of currencies. Or is the writer suggesting this a Clean Break? I’m dubious. Not in the intermediate term at least. My question? Is the IMF/BIS a constituent part of the Hegemon. Can’t the latter transcend the current Anglo-Zionist stranglehold? At least the current verbiage from the IMF says ‘yes’.
“The China-Russia plan for international reserved currency is to propose a bundle of currencies, not one, as the dollar serves today. If the IMF does not act favorably, there may be turmoil coming to that system. China has many allies for such a move.”
“Ironically, only the Hegemon’s military will remain.”
I might have used ‘ominously’ in place of ‘ironically’.
“There had never been a hegemon so desperate or so fundamentally weak, yet so powerfully equipped to destroy all normalcy, perhaps, most of humanity, if need be, for it to survive.”
Yes, ‘weak strength’ indeed. The paradox of too-big numbers. I’m still liking ‘ominous’ as I ponder the end-game of a wounded beast with large claws and a centuries-long sense of entitlement. -NB
Let’s dream a bit. A modicum of archaeological knowledge is necessary, but all the relevant information is readily available on the net.
The late Neolithic period is dominated by two cultural complexes characterized by a high quality painted ceramic. The dominant motif is a double spiral! One flourished China along the Yellow River (mostly known as the Yangshao culture). The other one is the Cucuteni- Trypillian culture in Ukraine and Romania. The “Taoist” background (the Ying-Yang design) is striking.
Occupied AmeriKa, I have to say the you hit the nail on the head with that comment, It is sickening how the Feds have dumbed down education to the point that the young have no critical thinking skills. Our Gvt have become nothing more than gangsters trying to shake down the world for the Zionists
Carlos Peligro
Farflungstar, “Stupidity is not uniquely AmeriKan, but boy, we sure put our own special shine on THAT.”
As another citizen of the Zio Occupied AmeriKa, I have to say the you hit the nail on the head with that comment, It is sickening how the Feds have dumbed down education to the point that the young have no critical thinking skills. Our Gvt have become nothing more than gangsters trying to shake down the world for the Zionists.
Carlos Peligro
Already being translated to Brazilian portuguese…
http://redecastorphoto.blogspot.ch/2014/12/do-livro-branco-do-saker-o-duplo-helice.html
Cheers
The White Paper is excellent.
Thank you!
I wish everyone a Happy Dongzhi Festival, a Merry Christmas (on whatever date it falls), and a Happy New Year.
From Canada with love and best wishes.
@Alien Tech:
Hi Alien, It seems to me your name is very much appropriate at the least in the context of India.
Russia is a long time friend of India. In India we have a very different meaning of Friend. And we never deceive or backstab our friend. Even during the Yeltsin Time we didn’t say anything to Russia because we understood what were the situation.
We perfectly understand what USA is. USA can never be a Friend whatsoever. It is like a Whore who has only interest. So there is no friendship with US or with West in general. It is a huge cultural difference.
India is there forever not like USA of stinking history of 300 yrs.
Moreover India is a democracy by character even a begger of India is democrat by character.
What US is doing trying to destroy Indian culture but India is very devin Land. Before anything would happen to her, US and West would be finish by itself. Just keep watching the drama unfolding if you can otherwise live denial like East is West.
The climax of the Western World is the legalization of the marriage of the LGBT. I don’t what they call themselves advanced. May be the machines are advances it doesn’t mean the people. In fact it is otherway I see.
Good Luck to you all Mordern People.
Anonymous said…
‘Saker, you don’t believe the following quote, so why have it featured on the website?’
*slow, sad shake of the head* insulting people who don’t share your viewpoint shows nothing but your limitations as a human being.
HI Ann:
I am Sanjay here. Thnx for giving me compliment on my comments. I do read Saker and his blog so of course yours too just to check my thinking. In fact what is happening now I used to talk abt these almost 20 yrs ago and at that time I was knows as total absurd. But then what I could say.
In fact I listen to Khazin too. What surprise me is this that he is underestimating Putin and his company. May be Khazin wants his system of thinking should be applied immediately means head on. In my view it is not good until all or almost all pieces are in place. But this kind of voice is also neccessary so that the pressure on the Central Bank should be always there. The Lady of Central Bank who is prtege of Putin of course not fool.
We say in India when Ocean is churned then first the poison comes out and then the nectar. But there must be somebody who could be able to drink the poison. Whoever drinks the poison becomes THE SHIVA(The Hindu system).
Russia has to go thru this penance. The west doesn’t have penance at all there is only very low-level life qualitatively which they try to negate with gadgets.
And one more thing they claim that they could destroy the entire planet. Only devine power could do that.
Russia in the end would win and win big. But it is anxiety under which we all want immediate results to our favour. Hence Khazin too. But look at Putin. How calm and composed he is. One a person who posseses TRUTH could have.
Let us pray that the TRUTH should win not those whores and pimps.
Sanjay “SK”
Here is a quote from the The Peoples Bank of China which should be read to understand the position of China with regard to IMF + BIS reform of the international monetary system. This ‘reformed’ system would negate hegemonic power based on control of the international monetary system. The system would allow member nations central banks to focus on their domestic economies, without the burden or privilege of being the world’s reserve currency. This evolution to a non-hegemonic system will be chaotic, as it implies the devaluation of 100 Trillion USD assets used as savings or asset reserves around the world. Russia and China keep calling the USA Empire their partner, so that this idea comes to supplant the sense of entitlement and hegemony that haunts the USA. The USA is invited to be a normal partner in a multi-polar world. I am optimistic that after some chaos to provide political cover for the USA elites they will stand down short of thermonuclear war.
“2. A super-sovereign reserve currency not only eliminates the inherent risks of credit-based sovereign currency, but also makes it possible to manage global liquidity. A super-sovereign reserve currency managed by a global institution could be used to both create and control the global liquidity. And when a country´s currency is no longer used as the yardstick for global trade and as the benchmark for other currencies, the exchange rate policy of the country would be far more effective in adjusting economic imbalances. This will significantly reduce the risks of a future crisis and enhance crisis management capability.
III. The reform should be guided by a grand vision and begin with specific deliverables. It should be a gradual process that yields win-win results for all
The reestablishment of a new and widely accepted reserve currency with a stable valuation benchmark may take a long time. The creation of an international currency unit, based on the Keynesian proposal, is a bold initiative that requires extraordinary political vision and courage. In the short run, the international community, particularly the IMF, should at least recognize and face up to the risks resulting from the existing system, conduct regular monitoring and assessment and issue timely early warnings.
Special consideration should be given to giving the SDR a greater role. The SDR has the features and potential to act as a super-sovereign reserve currency. Moreover, an increase in SDR allocation would help the Fund address its resources problem and the difficulties in the voice and representation reform. Therefore, efforts should be made to push forward a SDR allocation. This will require political cooperation among member countries. Specifically, the Fourth Amendment to the Articles of Agreement and relevant resolution on SDR allocation proposed in 1997 should be approved as soon as possible so that members joined the Fund after 1981 could also share the benefits of the SDR. On the basis of this, considerations could be given to further increase SDR allocation.
The scope of using the SDR should be broadened, so as to enable it to fully satisfy the member countries´ demand for a reserve currency…..”
We’re now 2 years out from the end of the Mayan calendar, which is supposed to usher in a new age of wisdom and understanding. As things come into focus, we now see how it is being made manifest.
I’m hopeful for our future. Of course, the cancer is not yet fully exorcized, but the process has begun and is as inevitable as the sunrise.
Pardon my waxing metaphysical …. I’m usually a practical sort …. but the larger hand moving events should be acknowledged. Vladimir Putin has been chosen to be the instrument of this sea change.
For me, this is well-encapsulated in the Beatles’ song, “Blackbird”.
Godspeed (for all our sakes) Mr. Putin!
Looking forward to when there’s a synergistic blending of their financial systems! Right now the Chinese National Bank is a lot more robust than Russia’s.
Larchmonter445 and Saker, Dear Friends, thank you so deeply for your selfless gifts of knowledge.
Bless you both from the bottom of my heart.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/fallout-obama-russia-strategy-spreading-110000192.html
I am reposting this from teranam 13 upthread
It is the best corporate media analysis of the reality of what is at play here
Obama is forcing Europe to bear the pain of the Economic War against Russia
For the debased American hegemon it is a two for one: cripple two competing blocs for the price of one
The way i see it, either the EU fractures or it leads to WW III
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-22/former-airline-ceo-claims-us-military-shot-down-mh370-near-diego-garcia
Obama did MH370
http://itar-tass.com/en/world/768593
Ukraine did MH17
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-22/ukraine-central-bank-conned-swapping-its-gold-lead-bricks
Definition of a failed state
http://tabletmag.com/jewish-news-and-politics/187217/borislav-bereza
The Chosen People
Thanks for the Xmas gift.
Many thanks to Larchmonter 445 (and The Saker) for this lucid and highly informative article. I have made the PDF version available at this URL:
http://www.serendipity.li/China-Russia%20Double%20Helix.pdf
Links are welcome. (IE may not allow the download. Use Firefox or Opera.)
North Korea would be mad, insane, crazy to give up their nukes, insignificant as they are, as the article proposes, no matter what guarantee Russia and China might give. Without them the U.S. would attack, or the South Koreans, or both.
http://www.kp.ru/daily/26323.5/3204312/
Interview with airman stationed at the airbase from which the Su-25 was based that shot down MA17. Russ blog has the translation. Very interesting confession…maybe bonafide. Was aired on Russian TV news tonite.
Says that 3 aircraft took of, one returned without AtoA missles; other two aircraft shot down. Says the returning pilot stated “that (boeing) was in the wrong place at the wrong time”. Said the aircraft was armed with expired missles that were ordered to be “un-expeired” a week before the shootdown.
Several aspects of story don’t seem to fit with what is known…but “what is known” still has many gaps.
http://fortruss.blogspot.com/2014/12/meet-pilot-who-shot-down-malysian.html
Nardami
(Kudos to Larchmonter)
behind Financial Times paywall
Russia Faces Full-Blown Crisis says Kudrin Jack Farchy
Russia faces a “full-blown economic crisis” next year that will trigger a series of defaults and the loss of its investment-grade credit rating, a respected former finance minister has warned.
Real incomes will fall by 2-5 per cent next year, the first decrease in real terms since 2000, said Alexei Kudrin, a longtime ally of President Vladimir Putin and widely tipped to succeed Dmitry Medvedev as prime minister.
His warning came as Russia’s central bank was forced to prop up a mid-sized lender in a sign of the strains on the banking system.
“Today I can say that we have entered or are currently entering a full-blown economic crisis; next year we will feel it in full force,” Mr Kudrin said in Moscow on Monday.
In unusually blunt comments for an establishment figure, he also called on Mr Putin to do what was necessary to improve relations with the west: “As for what the president and government must do now: the most important factor is the normalization of Russia’s relations with its business partners, above all in Europe, the US and other countries.”
His bleak forecasts for the Russian economy come after a week of high drama in which the ruble fell by as much as 36 per cent in one day, rattling popular confidence in the government.
On Monday, the ruble rose 5.1 per cent to 56.5 to the dollar following a series of measures announced in the second half of last week to shore up confidence in the banking system.
The central bank said it would inject 30 billion rubles ($530 million) into Trust bank, the country’s 28th-largest lender by assets, “to prevent bankruptcy”.
<p>Russia to enter 'deep recession' in 2015?</p> <p>With China's foreign minister offering to help Russia if needed, Neil Shearing, chief emerging markets economist at Capital Economics, discusses how Moscow is fairing, saying 2015 will show a "deep recession" for Russia.</p>
The wild gyrations in the ruble and on Russia’s equity and bond markets last week have taken their toll on banking sector liquidity, with interbank interest rates rising to the highest level in nine years. The central bank and government have announced a series of measures to support the banking sector, including a 1tn rouble ($18bn) recapitalisation plan announced on Friday.
The central bank said the state deposit insurance agency would take over administration of Trust bank while a buyer was sought. “It is assumed that the investor will be one of the large Russian banks,” the central bank said in a statement.
Mr Medvedev told the heads of Russia’s big banks on Monday to make sure that during the new year holidays people had “an opportunity to relax without worrying about what is going on in the banking sector”.
In another sign of pressure, the government said it would impose duties on exports of grain, which have boomed because of currency weakness, forcing prices up for domestic consumers.
Mr Kudrin said the economy would contract by at least 4 per cent next year if oil prices remained at $60 a barrel, echoing central bank forecasts of a 4.5-4.7 per cent contraction. There would “certainly” be a recession in 2016.
“Russia will have its rating downgraded, it will be cut to junk,” he said. “Due to the economic disruption . . . payment discipline will fall significantly and we will see a series of defaults of medium-sized and large companies.”
Mr Kudrin also predicted an increase in dissatisfaction among the population that could have a political impact. “There will be a fall in living standards, it will be painful. Protest activity will increase,” he said.
He declined to comment on his own potential return to the government.
http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/russian-sailors-leaving-french-port-warship-27687055
If Putin doesnt demand his money back plus penalties then he is nothing but a weakling enthralled to his true Atlantic Integrationist desires
Funny how Russia is broke as a joke but wont demand immediate payment of the Uki deadbeats 3 billion bond
We’ve heard him talk, mow let’s see him walk the walk
Suvorov
Here’s my take on the NK nukes. Presently, they are not weaponized. And he might only have five or six devices. He’s got to keep exploding them to prove he has them and will use them.
He is cut off from any new potential to build better missiles. China and Russia will help with sanctions against him if he doesn’t give up the arsenal. So, he can play the game for 5-10 years, then his regime will fall. He is up against inevitability.
He is exporting meth to China for his major export. The Chinese are pissed royally at him. They will send in a team to decapitate his mafia regime. That too is inevitable. Check out what they did in the Mekong River with drug dealers last year. They shoot to kill when they finally decide.
His only future is a deal with Russia and China for protection.
The US is not going to march up the peninsula. The last time they did that 53,000 Americans died. He can take Seoul on the ground faster than the US can take Pyongyang. So the US is all about posture, not strategy to knock him off.
He has to step down from his delusion that he can win. He can’t even last a decade more without Chinese assistance, and they have had enough. He’s a huge danger to China, not the U.S. They fear 3 million refugees coming into North China. They also don’t want war on the peninsula.
Dalian is close and a huge commercial, Free zone and naval base for shipbuilding. It is very close across a short piece of water. Dandong is another port used right at the border with NK. Chinese have tremendous investments in the area.
Now, Russia will be developing the Far East right next door. That is why the Russians and Chinese are developing electrical production and transmission for the region. To build up North Korea is part of the plan.
Kim can keep control of N.K. only one way. Play ball with Putin and Xi. Or he may find a cup of tea is his last thought. There are a hundred ways his ending can be arranged. And it will be. Mafia Dons are a dime a dozen. And he’s no more valuable than Joseph Colombo or Albert Anastasia.
He’s sitting on a key piece of turf. He either plays ball or the inevitable happens. North Korea does not have an ally or a friend and no one needs what he has except for other criminals.
And his people will celebrate for a month when that regime falls. Particularly, if they see China and Russia are there to invest and build their nation.
Thank you Saker!
And very funny retort ^^
Y’all ain’t gonna sell S-400 to someone who will switch to C tomorrow and then use
’em against Y’all. The message is clear for Pentie and Bruxeless.
Ah Bob Kay, I’ve been reading your posts the last couple of weeks with great interest. Your comment above apparently came out in the same batch as mine (I’m the anonymous ‘dispirited Yank’ who appears twice above at 23:32 and 23:33 –sometimes this system seems to compel two blog entries!)
You say:
“I would like to offer an opinion that Russia and China are partners with the IMF + BIS in forcing the USA hegemon to accept the loss of empire and exorbitant privilege by gradually moving away from USD as the world reserve asset and instrument of settlement of international trade balances to an SDR system.”
I’m in lockstep agreement with you. The US is the recalcitrant power (increasingly isolated hegemon) arrayed against the combined forces of the IMF/BIS and Russia-China. The entire direction of Western history has been convergence on a unipolar world through the unassailable arithmetic of usury and the concomitant extinguishing of what really is the font of multipolarity: national sovereignty, cultural variance, etc.
BRICS is not a usurper to the IMF. Who is better equipped to shepherd Eurasian growth than the emergent regional powers? Bankers need growth. They do not become enamoured of any currency. Bankers are in the business of debauching currencies and moving on.
My one slight critique of this summary is that, in its enthusiasm, it overworks the new paradigm trope. Meet the new boss. Same as the old boss.
Anunnaki said…
“He declined to comment on his own potential return to the government.”
I’ll comment on it.
Since he just planted himself firmly in the 5th column.The likelihood is very slight he ever returns to government.
Uncle Bob
BOB KAY !!! – Christmas quote of the year:
“The USA is invited to be a normal partner in a multi-polar world. I am optimistic that after some chaos to provide political cover for the USA elites they will stand down short of thermonuclear war.”
This is “Succinct Analysis Of The Year”, my prayer, my Christmas wish, and surely every diplomat’s Grail.
Larchmonter445 – I thought you were absent a lot lately – what a work you have wrought! Saker, what a dude you are. The two of you together discussing hope for the world. In fact, all we want is to survive and have a future where reason still survives. When I compare the end of this year with the beginning, the surge in my hope and good feeling should be put on one of those ZeroHedge charts, and it would shoot upwards to the stratosphere.
Will Russia Insider publish the entirety of Larchmonter’s analysis? Let’s try to get an online version somewhere that the alt media can link to. Saker, actually you could publish the whole thing, you’d just have to truncate it in the main page (time you thought about doing this with all the posts anyway old friend).
What a Christmas, here in the old world. What good tidings, what hopeful thoughts of possible futures, held on shoulders of honest giants, so that ordinary people may simply live. There is no greater good, no more worthy endeavor. Saker, Larchmonter, I raise a toast to you both.
Great essay! Very interesting!
The Green Tara said:
2015 is the Year of Goat (from Feb 19) in the 12-animal pantheon of the Lunar zodiac. It is also the symbol of Russia that rose from the USSR collapse in 1991.
By tradition, the sign of the year is also in direct conflict with the ruling Lord Jupiter of that year.Coincidence or not, it is already clear that 2015 will represent a passage of crisis for Russia.
Luckily, it has a strong leader in Vladimir Putin, a Dragon in the water element (1952), who will be fluid and adaptable to overcome the adversities.
The Chinese saying: the river water should not disturb/offend the well water presents an analogy of the US-led sanctions to submerge Russia.
The besieged little well also has the metaphysical power to conquer and swallow the mighty river instead!
At the end of the 2-year time frame foreseen by Mr Putin, the next American presidential candidates may run on a platform to end the sanctions on Russia that have inflicted reverse damage on Washington – and by then damaged or brought down some vassals in EU.
http://blogs.rediff.com/mkbhadrakumar/2014/12/22/russia-china-neither-allies-nor-rivals/
Dissenting view from India
The 21st Century will be spiritual or will not be.(Malraux)
Highly mpressive article which seems to me to be based upon the kinds of materialist thinking which have led us to where we are now…
I feel I must apologise and wish I was in step with it all but I am not and am disappointed.
The double helix growth organism thinking is new but applied to old methods of thinking.
China essentially belongs to the past and Russia to the future. Will there be this future? I do not believe in the prospects of longer term meaningful development with China.
Where are they who are the ‘salt of the earth’, why are the words of the great prophets and poets and artists and thinkers swept aside like dry leaves by the onward rush of a blind force that ignores them?
Million upon millions of people have died at the hands of wars and the terrorist regimes of the 20 century. I believe we will see it again, and it is over simplistic to say ‘only God can destroy the planet’. WE have created the means of destroying the planet and now we have to find the responsibility to be like gods, or universal co-creators and it will not be through oil and reductionist thinking.
Thank you, Larchmonter. You have written what I would call an academic paper and, believe me, I know how much time and effort that takes. You do research, you write and then you edit. You add and delete and probably check all your sources, links, one more time. People need to know how much work your paper cost you. Thanks, again.
NoBC4U said… 22 December, 2014 20:20
Events in Kiev – December 2014 edition.
http://bread-circuses-today.blogspot.co.uk/2014/12/chronicles-of-collapse-of-kiev-edition.html
Thanks, NoBC4U. We need more information about the situation in Ukraine and you provide it.
Larchmonter,
Thanks for your efforts.
By the way, if you are in the mood for some non-standard thoughts on the Asian world …
The history of Japan and Korea is not politically correct for anyone. Too dangerous. The Yakuza, for instance, are overwhelmingly Korean, especially North Korean. Kind of funny for super patriots, right? The massacres and population transfers inside Korea, and the massive flood that entered Japan during the Korean War period have influenced things today.
So the right wing that we know and love in Japan is very tight with NK, both for current financial reasons but also from a historical perspective. So you can say that China is now unhappy with NK, but this also needs to be put in the context that NK is close to the current government in Japan. And that gets into Fukushima, which was and likely is where so much of Japan’s nuclear weapons research goes on.
In any case, NK has massive resources, and is about to open up. Japan wants to get the lion’s share of these contracts.
Seems Pepe Escobar agrees with this article..
A case can be made that the geopolitical shift towards Russia-China integration is arguably the greatest strategic maneuver of the last 100 years. Xi’s ultimate master plan is unambiguous: a Russia-China-Germany trade/commerce alliance. German business/industry wants it badly, although German politicians still haven’t got the message. Xi – and Putin – are building a new economic reality on the Eurasian ground, crammed with crucial political, economic and strategic ramifications.
It has not leaked to Western corporate media yet, but independent-minded academics in Europe (yes, they do exist, almost like a secret society) are increasingly alarmed there is no alternative model to the chaotic, entropic hardcore neoliberalism/casino capitalism racket promoted by the Masters of the Universe.
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/World/WOR-02-231214.html