At his year-end press conference, the Russian president let drop nuggets essential to understanding what lies ahead on the Eurasian geopolitical chessboard
by Pepe Escobar (cross-posted with the Asia Times by special agreement with the author)
At his trademark annual year-end press conference in Moscow, Russian President Vladimir Putin once again let drop selected foreign-policy nuggets essential to understanding what lies ahead on the turbulent Eurasian geopolitical chessboard.
By now it’s well known that Putin will run again in the presidential elections scheduled for March 18 (“it will be self-nomination” and “I hope for the overall support from the public”). The Man in Charge might as well continue to be in charge. So it’s always enlightening to bring down the (spin) noise: sit back, relax, and just listen:
On President Trump: “I am on first-name terms with Trump; yes, we would probably use the familiar ‘you.’ I hope he’ll get the opportunity to improve relations with Russia. Look at the markets, how they have grown. This means that investors trust the US economy, this means they trust what he [Donald Trump] is doing in this field.”
On Russiagate: “What’s so strange about this [diplomats speaking with officials in their host country]? Why do you have this ‘Russian spy’ hysteria?” On accusations of Russian interference in the 2016 US presidential race, Putin said, “They have been invented by those aiming to delegitimize Trump. These people don’t understand they are undermining their own country – they aren’t showing respect for the Americans [who] voted for Trump.”
On working together with Washington: “Russia and the US can work closely on a range of issues” even given the “well-known limitations” on Trump.
On potential US withdrawal from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty: “We hear about the problems with the INF Treaty. Apparently conditions are being created and an information-propaganda campaign is being run for a possible US withdrawal from the treaty. There is nothing good about a US withdrawal, that [would] be highly detrimental to international security. The US has de facto left the INF Treaty already, with the deployment of the Aegis ashore, but Russia is not going to leave the treaty. We will not be dragged into an arms race.”
Putin stressed that Russia’s defense spending was US$46 billion a year, while the US plans to spend $700 billion in 2018.
On the Arctic: “I have visited [the Arctic archipelago] Franz Josef Land; several years ago foreign guides, accompanying foreign tourist groups, would say that these islands ‘recently’ belonged to Russia. They had forgotten that [Franz Josef Land] is a Russian archipelago, but we reminded them, and at the moment everything is fine. We shouldn’t forget it. Developing all those resources in the Arctic should take place in sync with taking care of the environment … we should not impinge on economic activities of ethnic minorities.”
On Ukraine: “The Kiev authorities have no desire to implement the Minsk agreements, no desire to launch a real political process, the completion of which could be the implementation of an agreement on the special status of the Donbass, which is enshrined in the relevant law of Ukraine, adopted by the Rada [Ukraine’s parliament]. Russians and Ukrainians are basically one people” (the audience is audibly pleased).
On Syria: “The US is not contributing enough to the successful resolution of the Syrian crisis. It is important that none of the participants in this [Syrian peace] process have the desire or temptation to use various terrorist or quasi-terrorist radical groups to achieve their immediate political goals.”
On Iraq: “Let’s say, militants are parting for Iraq. We are telling our US colleagues, ‘Militants have gone this or that way.’ There is no reaction, they [militants] are just leaving. Why? Due to thinking that they could be used in the fight with [Syrian President Bashar] Assad. That’s very dangerous.”
On Russia possibly influencing North Korea to abandon its nuclear program: “Your congressmen, senators look so good, they have beautiful suits, shirts, they are seemingly clever people. They put us alongside North Korea and Iran. At the same time they push the [US] president to persuade us to solve the problems of North Korea and Iran together with you.”
On a nuclear DPRK: “On North Korea, we don’t accept it as a nuclear country. As for the US, it has gone beyond previous deals [with the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea] … and has provoked North Korea to withdraw from agreements. I think we heard the US would stop military drills, but no … they didn’t. It is vital to act very carefully when dealing with the DPRK’s nuclear program.”
On China: “I have full confidence that cooperation with China is beyond any political agenda. We will always remain strategic partners, for a long period of time. We have similar approaches to the development of the international system. We are both interested in joint [economic] projects, including integration of OBOR [One Belt One Road] and the Eurasian Union.”
Crafting the integration soundtrack
And that takes us to the heart of the geopolitical New Great Game in Eurasia: the Russia-China strategic partnership, once again reaffirmed, and the deepening of integration between the New Silk Roads, formerly OBOR, now Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAUA).
Putin is clearly positive about the benefits for Russia from this economic interpenetration. He noted how “Russia was able to overcome major crises: the collapse of prices for energy carriers and trade sanctions. But the country is moving in the right direction with a greater focus on domestic production. Our internal trade grew by 3%. This has to mean something.”
Stressing how Moscow is totally on board the BRI, Putin implied how this cooperation extrapolates to both the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) and the SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization) spheres as well; and that’s where we should place Moscow’s current efforts to convince New Delhi – also a BRICS and SCO member – that betting on the BRI favors India’s interests.
As recently as early this week in New Delhi, after a trilateral meeting with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Indian Foreign Minister Sushma Swaraj, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has been adamant: “I know India has problems, we discussed it today, with the concept of One Belt and One Road, but the specific problem in this regard should not make everything else conditional to resolving political issues.”
New Delhi has to be listening, as it was one of Moscow’s staunchest allies during the Cold War.
In a parallel development, Iran is bound to join the EAEU as early as February, according to Behrouz Hassanolfat, director of the Europe and Americas Department of Iran’s Trade Promotion Organization, as quoted by the Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA).
As Asia Times has reported, India and Iran are getting more in sync economically via a parallel Silk Road to Central Asia centered on the port of Chabahar. Iran is also an essential BRI hub, and now will become an EAEU hub as well.
As much as Beijing in relation to its BRI, Moscow has been on a charm offensive to enlarge the EAEU. Turkey – already on board the BRI – is a possible EAEU candidate for the near future, as well as India and Pakistan.
Even as Putin at his presser once again advanced the cause of these multiple cross-pollinations of Eurasian integration, India sometimes may give the impression of being the odd partner out. New Delhi has just hosted the first ASEAN-India Connectivity Summit, which can be interpreted as an attempt to go against the BRI. Yet the emergence of an anti-China bloc across Southeast Asia seems far-fetched.
In parallel, Moscow certainly does not welcome a somewhat evolving “Indo-Pacific” US/India/Japan alliance. The undercurrent narrative in Putin’s script could not be more crystal clear: The roadmap for Eurasia integration is all about the coming together of the BRI, EAEU, the SCO and BRICS.
One thing that i fail to understand is the constant attempts to make it excuses for America
“Big deal” being on first name with Trumo – when they are sanctioning your country. And will do all they can to undermine you – it’s pathetic
Where has putins refreshing honesty gone?
VVP wants America as an ally…is play long game.
Rail link across Bering Strait to Alaska, Sakhalin to Japan rail, Alaska to west coast… Is natural economic development process.
Think about the long game.
Nobody seems to understand that is a fantasy, a daydream. USA and Russia are mortal enemies, only one will survive as a dominant power, it’s a fight to the death, an epic clash of civilizations
Exactly !!!!
No chance to even consider that one could believe the US.
Couldn’t agree more.Putin plays for keeps.
Asians will always talk to their enemy – the difference between the west and the east.
In this case VVP is illustrating how far out of synch the US versus Russia is. “Our partner” versus ‘Our enemy’, this will not be lost on the rest of the world, the use of polite speech versus denigrating speech.
As anon states – the long game.
Eurasia has once again been confirmed as the upcoming chief economic zone in the world. And yes, Vladimir Putin is the man who will make the greatest contribution to this, being indeed the “connector”.
re: connector.
You misspoke. What you meant to say is the Mr. Putin is the “Conductor” as well as the connector, of course!
i thought putin said no more back-door deals and lies to the public? oh, yes he did!
“Look at the markets, how they have grown. This means that investors trust the US economy, this means they trust what he [Donald Trump] is doing in this field.”
this is a blatant lie. the US markets are up coz the US FED is printing money. not because trump
did this or that.
It’s not really that simple.
People think in symbols and although Wall Street is a poisonous place, so are the professional sports teams and bread and circus stadiums and arenas that excite the passions and loyalties of many investor Americans, or mere spectator Americans that fantasize about someday being able to invest or otherwise”be a winner”..
It may be hopium (the DJIA is a ridiculous metric of economic health) but it exists and it dampens fear.
This does not mean the sheeple won’t be shorn so hard they bleed or that hope alone is going to rebuild a looted nation of decaying infrastructure or that the architects of the bubble won’t do their best to blame Trump for what they engineered……….but it is not entirely assured they will succeed in that narrative if the bubble blows very soon in his first term, and escape their far, far greater blame.
I am fairly certain Putin understands this and you might consider adopting a more subtle, nuanced approach to a pretty complicated situation, rather than being so upset about his statement……which….read in this way I suggest…..is very very far from a “blatant lie”.
It’s not the complete truth either, but so what? Even if one arrived at possessing such a thing by Divine Dispensation do you imagine it would be communicable in a few short sentences?
Ergo, get over expecting it any time soon, IMHO.
Probably in the event of armed coup or civil war in the USA Trump can be used as their banner to intervene. Other than that either he is honest to say Trump is actually different from TV to be impressed or he’s throwing a lifeline to the few Trump supporters to raises their morale.
Likely the praise about stocks being up was the only thing Putin could think of at that moment to say something “diplomatic” about trump. :-D
Putin verbally attacking trump does nothing to further Russia’s interests. On the other hand, Putin appearing friendly to trump probably helps fuel the fruitcake nonsense about Russian influence in the regime. Such interference probably doesn’t amount to much in tying up the zionazis, but every little neutralising agent helps. :-)
i agree with you guys, both vot tak & bro93,
i just had some pent up urge to finally see the bad guys get a punch in the nose.
i’m waiting for the day to see someone anyone stand up & approach nikki haley and just
b!tchslap her while she spews her neocon bullsh!t. right in the UN. in front off all TV cameras.
mmmmmm one can dream….
President Putin understands that President Trump is constrained in his actions by law, the Special Counsel and the DC Swamp.
Putin’s positive words are an attempt to loosen Trump’s straitjacket by undermining public perception here that Russia nurtures malice towards us.
The key phrase in Putin’s presser on this topic was his “well-known limitations” on Trump.
President Putin’s subsequent phone call to thank President Trump about the St Petersburg terrorist warning is consisted with his effort to change negative public perceptions here in the US.
If that is the strategy its s foolish strategy.
The more Purim talks positive it just makes more people believe in Russia gate.
Putin should focus on the facts of the USA – Russia bilateral which is in the toilet
“President Putin understands that President Trump is constrained in his actions by law, the Special Counsel and the DC Swamp. . . . The key phrase in Putin’s presser on this topic was his “well-known limitations” on Trump.”
that was my take and the phrase that popped out at me.
“”Dogwhistle,” if you will, regarding the current political/deep state circumstances in the USA.
To Russians and also to Americans and others. EU citizens. Etc.
What Trump would do with a decent cabinet and without the constant interference, the Russiagate nonsense, the questions cast on his sanity, impeachment threats, etc etc etc none of us, actually, knows.
Also in the USA.
More evidence, in the current Nation, that the Weinstein thing is partially targeting Trump politically, where Trump is referred to as “our predator in chief” (p. 4, bottom of page.).
I guess this actually in connection with comments made on the Consortium News story about Russiagate by Stephen Cohen. But it has some relevance here. Putin is signaling that he understands that trump is handicapped. He is giving him the benefit of the doubt.
Katherine
There is no delusion in Putin’s eyes or mind.
Russia is building an entire new Army for the Far East-Arctic military district.
Chinese-Russia exercises this past weekend were for practicing down to the PAP (People’s Armed Police and Russian Regardie levels of the two militaries air missile defenses.
Russia has a naval force with missile defense systems and EW in the Sea of Japan should the Korean Peninsula go hot.
As all the diplomatic, trade and finances go forward, so too are all the military capabilities for integration of Russian expertise and weapons systems. Tajikistan is getting an army built up to full size by Russia which has three bases there.
Everyone who watches Afghanistan knows the US is up to dirty tricks with information war and concurrently bringing in thousands of ISIS fighters to keep the charnel house death and chaos churning.
The Russians are very aware and make moves of their own. These are not just reactions.
Though Trump is new to the game, he bathes in the hegemonic aura. Being a bully comes naturally to him. Domination is a tradecraft for the salesman from NYC.
I believe the Russian FSB has a good psych-profile now of Trump the President and his pals in the Pentagon and Langley. The faces have changed but the Hegemon has not and will not.
In my opinion, it is unlikely that the US-led ‘lets mess up anything positive in Eurasia’ policy will go down without a fight. While Australia remains a treacherous, right-wing enemy of Asia its gaggle of high-tech bases facilitated to the US will ensure that the Eurasian project/the OBOR (BRI) will be dead in the water. No country in the World is safe from the impact of the Tony Abbott-defined military regime and its US allies whilst the comms set up remains active and growing.
@India sometimes may give the impression of being the odd partner out.
That India was prepared for long to play the odd partner, was obvious at least since 2009 when a keen observer of the Indian scene, M K Bhadrakumar wrote:
“Indian policies are predicated on the assumption that a Sino-US clash of interests is inevitable as China’s surge as a world power has become unstoppable, and Washington will have use of Delhi as a counterweight to Beijing sooner than most people would think. Surely, there is disquiet in Delhi about the Barack Obama administration’s regional policies, which no longer accord India the status of a pre-eminent power and which place primacy on the US’s alliance with India’s arch rival, Pakistan…
One thing is clear. Powerful Indian lobbyists have been at work in whipping up a war hysteria and xenophobia over China. The Washington Post recently featured a Delhi-datelined report on the shenanigans of these Indian fat cats who mainly comprise retired Indian defense officials and senior bureaucrats who act as commission agents for big American arms manufacturers. There was a time when the Sandhurst-trained Indian military personnel retired to the cool hill stations and spent the sunset of their lives playing bridge or going for long walks and regaling their visitors with their wartime stories while sipping whisky…
Now, all eyes will turn toward the visit by Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to Washington in November. Obama has let it be known that Manmohan will be the first dignitary to be honored with a state banquet during his presidency.
The Americans are vastly experienced with the Indians’ Himalayan ego and by now they know well enough where and how to tickle Indian vanities. How they pedal fresh dreams to the Indians and pick up the fruits of their endeavors will be keenly watched not only by the multitude of Indians back at home, but also by the Pakistanis, Chinese and the Russians’.”
It worked like clock-work. There is a geo-political reason: India doesn’t really belong to ‘Eurasia’, but rather to ‘Oceania’. Hence her profoundly ambivalent stance. Add the rising fumes of ‘great power’.
Look at Hebrews from India and you may have a reason for this.
@Anonymous December 18, 2017; 7:31pm
2 points:
1) You do realize that Manmohan Singh, ceased being India’s Prime Minister more than 2 years ago when his incompetent party was crushed at the polls by current Prime Minister, Narendra Modi’s BJP, back in 2014? In what way is cutting and pasting an obsolete shoddy Bhadrakumar opinion piece, contribute or relate to, in any way, the above mentioned Pepe Escobar? This is perplexing and illogical given that the US President has also changed as well as US foreign policy.
2) is it not against Saker blog moderation rules to cut and paste “wholesale”, an article from another publication nto the comments section?