Just after the head of the Progressive Socialist Party MP Walid Jumblatt finished his press conference on Sunday, Israeli media went for analyses. They read in his speech a direct message to Hezbollah Secretary General Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah. Jumblatt openly stated in his speech that he’s ready for war. “If you think that we are going to sit with our hands tied, then perhaps we would have to burn everything. If you want war, then we welcome war. We have no problem with war. We have no problem with weapons or with rockets which we will take from you,” Jumblatt threatened. How did Israel welcome the PSP leader’s position? In information published about an Israeli scenario for the next war on Lebanon, it was revealed that a sudden air deathblow against Hezbollah accompanied by airdrops in regions under the control of Jumblatt, Lebanese Forces chief Samir Geagea and other February 14 figures.
Jumblatt had previously admonished Israel’s deputy chief of staff Moshee Keplensky during a conference organized by the Washington institute for Middle East policies. Jumblatt told Keplensky that a “confessional militia has defeated you and in the end you left Hezbollah’s arsenal intact to kill us with, because you did not enter south Lebanon and you did not destroy its weapons warehouses.” Many Israeli sources confirmed a one-hour-meeting had taken place between Jumblatt and Keplinski under the auspices of the Institute’s administration that gave both men the chance to address the annual conference for the founders of the institute.
Keplenski promised Jumblatt that Israel will thrust more ground forces in the second round of the war to destroy Hezbollah’s arsenals and training centers.
For its part, the ‘Omedia’ news website, reported information about a secret meeting that was held between Jumblatt and Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak and another one between Jumblatt and Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert’s representative in the presence of US Vice President Dick Cheney, adding that that both meetings were positively concluded.
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Commentary: So the plan is to use the militias of USraelian stooges in Lebanon (Jumblatt, Siniora, Gemayel & Co.) as ground forces against Hezbollah and the Free Patriotic Movement while providing them with Israeli airpower cover. This is a standard Imperial strategy which has been “successfully” used in Afghanistan (Tadjiks, Uzbeks and Hazaras on the ground), Kosovo (KLA on the ground), and in Croatia/Bosnia (with the Croatians on the ground): it minimizes combat losses, at least for Imperial soldiers, it makes use of the ground element’s knowledge of the terrain, and it allows for large-scale massacres without involving the Imperial High Command.
In the case of Lebanon, such a scenario would also allow the Siniora regime to crush the opposition in the name of “national security”, it would make it possible for the USA and Israel to sustain a long campaign “in defense of the democratically elected President of Lebanon” and it would provide Israel with a great opportunity to try to finally crush Hezbollah. But would this approach really yield the expected results?
What are the real lessons for Lebanon from the Afghanistan, Kosovo or Croatia/Bosnia campaigns?
In Afghanistan the Taliban, pressed by the Pakistani ISI, took the fundamental decision not to fight, to retreat to the south of the country to wait for US and NATO ground forces to invade the country. By refusing to fight the kind of war the US/NATO wanted the Taliban chose the best strategy possible: waiting until the nature of the conflict would fundamentally change. As a result, the Taliban control most of the country, the NATO alliance is in a crisis, the invading forces are taking many casualties, Karazai is known throughout the country as the “mayor of Kabul and the US/NATO forces are now being defeated quasi-officially (meaning that the corporate media now reports on some problems with this campaign).
In Kosovo the air campaign was an abject failure. The (4th – if I remember well) Serbian Army Corps lost only a few tanks and APC and was totally unscathed by NATO’s huge bombing campaign. The Serbian army achieved this amazing result not by the strength of its air defenses (which, even if staffed by very competent operators, were antiquated) but by its mastery of deception, camouflage and use of decoys. Neither US/NATO spotters not KLA fighters were able (or willing) to find useful targets for air attacks. The Empire switched tactic and bombed the civilian population in Serbia and Montenegro while promising Milosevic that he would be allowed to remain in power if he would be willing to betray the Kosovo Serbs. It is that latter method which brought about the Serbian capitulation. It is also important to stress here that while the Serbs were a rather small minority in Kosovo (courtesy of Tito’s – a Croat Jew – ethnic cleansing of Kosovo after WWII) the Shia are the biggest part of the Lebanese population.
In Croatia and Bosnia the occupation of the UN controlled areas of Croatia was achieved not only by a Croatian ground attack supported by the US Air Force but also, which is less well known, by ordering the UNPROFOR forces protecting these areas to step down and let the Croats through and by making Milosevic agree to withdraw his regular Yugoslav Army Brigades away form their areas of deployment. All the weapons of the Croatian Serbs were held in “secured storage” as a “confidence building measure”. In other words, the Krajina Serbs were defeated by the joint action of the US, NATO and the UN and betrayed by UNPROFOR, and Milosevic. No such scenario is imaginable in Lebanon.
If anything, the examples of Afghanistan, Kosovo and Croatia/Bosnia illustrate the limitations of this “war on the cheap” strategy which, by the way, has already been tried in Lebanon in 1982: does anyone still remember the images of the Phalangists drinking champagne and toasting to the IDF while the Israelis were entering Beirut and shelling its Muslims neighborhoods? I do not expect Olmert or Bush to remember any such thing, but an old fox like Jumblatt? I bet you he does. So my guess is that he is just making empty threats and trying to impress Hezbollah. Either that, or the man has become senile.
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UPDATE: looks like the old fox is biting his tongue, or is he? He denials are lukewarm at best, and he still blames Hezbollah for the situation even though Hezbollah is the party which demands the strict application of the rule of law and the *only* party in Lebanon which never used violence against its fellow Lebanese. Among other things Jumblatt declared “we are not American or Israeli agents as they always accuse us“. Really?! LOL!
Sounds like bluster to me too.
While it is all but certain that the Israelis will again try to salve their wounded pride with another (unsuccessful) war on Lebanon, Jumblatt will not be an asset to them. Quite apart from the fact that even the most unprincipled of Lebanese ‘leaders’ would not dare openly side with Israel, Jumblatt could not organise the proverbial p***up in a brewery.
Jumblatt,the Druse? No way can he crush Hezbollah alone! Even with the Israelis’ help he might face annihilation before he finishes. And even if he succeeds, won’t he antagonize every Lebanese who has an ounce of patriotism if he attacks Lebanon’s only defender?
I totally agree with you, even though we should never underestimate the role corruption plays in Middle-East politics: the Phalangists are such SOBs that they would sell out their entire family into prostitution or slavery if that could bring them power and $$$
Kind regards!
VS
I saw Jumblatt’s comments. I hope the Lebanese avoid another worthless and meaningless civil war about nothing.
Jumbalatt, the sunni arabs (including Palestinians), and Christians (excluding one politician) are allied against Hezbollah/Syria/Iran at the moment. I hope none of them do anything stupid.
I don’t get why all of them (and Israel for that matter) all forget this nonsense . . . and agree to kiss and make up. Their stupid fights are getting ridiculous.
For details on the ANA and ANP, see:
http://www.longwarjournal.org/oob/afghanistan/index.php
CJR wrote this. He will update again in two months. I think very highly of CJR.
The ANA and ANP haven’t been beaten by a long shot. However, they operated on a shoe string budget until November 2006 (Rumsfeld blocked aid to them.) That has since been rectified.
It is important to note that much of the violence in Afghanistan isn’t AQ/Taliban per se. It is more local warlord, organized crime, ordinary crime.
Many districts in Afghanistan still have almost no ANP or ANA, let alone NATO (because of previous severe ANP/ANA funding shortages.)
A huge problem in the ANA & ANP is literacy. Another problem is that the ANA/ANP pay a lot less than many private sector employment opportunities, causing a lot of experienced cadre to leverage the job experience and education they have gained in the Afghan security forces to find much higher income private sector jobs.
See the 2.8/08 Western Afghan security forces briefing (specifically the West 207th Corp ANA—still has only one green brigade, and Western ANP . . . including Heart ANP which seem to be performing well.)
I have heard from many sources that most ANA units remain very green. But I have yet to come across any documentation of motivation issues (quite the opposite in fact . . . too much enthusiasm can be an issue.)
ANP is not as good as ANA.
Iraq’s MoD has 208 K trained and equipped, MoI has 343 K , ISOF has 4 K. By contrast the ANA has only 40K even though Afghanistan has more than 30 million people. There were massive funding shortages in the Afghan MoD and Interior ministry until November 2006.
I blame the whole world for not helping the Afghans and their security forces, America pre 11-06 too.
This guy is totally Insane !! really , and he pretends to care about Lebanon. shame on those who support such a deluded warmonger who parrots what the zionists tell him in washinton , what a poor Loser Puppet .
anand
May I suggest you look up an article on the washington Post called ABC to Jihad , read it from beginning to the end , you might learn something that might shock you .
Thanks for your suggestion Fatima. I always enjoy your insightful comments. Please send me a link and describe what you would like me to learn about.
I am on the side of Druse, Christians, Shia, Sunni Arabs, Palestinians, and Israelis. I see no contradiction, only complementarily in my position. I really want all of them to win and succeed. None of them can truly win unless all the others win too.
Fatima, I also love reading stories about the prophet’s daughter Fatimah. She was an amazing woman. I hope every muslim woman draws inspiration from Fatimah, and tries to become more like her. Imagine the paradise that the whole world would become if that happened.
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