by Pepe Escobar (cross-posted with the Consortium News) by special agreement with the author
Vast swathes of the West seem not to realize that if the Strait of Hormuz is shut down a global depression will follow, writes Pepe Escobar.
The Trump administration once again has graphically demonstrated that in the young, turbulent 21st century, “international law” and “national sovereignty” already belong to the Realm of the Walking Dead.
As if a deluge of sanctions against a great deal of the planet was not enough, the latest “offer you can’t refuse” conveyed by a gangster posing as diplomat, Consul Minimus Mike Pompeo, now essentially orders the whole planet to submit to the one and only arbiter of world trade: Washington.
First the Trump administration unilaterally smashed a multinational, UN-endorsed agreement, the JCPOA, or Iran nuclear deal. Now the waivers that magnanimously allowed eight nations to import oil from Iran without incurring imperial wrath in the form of sanctions will expire on May 2 and won’t be renewed.
President Trump’s decision to withdraw from the Iran deal upheld his highest obligation: to protect the safety and security of the American people.
Why Iran sanctions are necessary: https://t.co/YQtmSA9hZX pic.twitter.com/n5r8mhZTl5
— The White House (@WhiteHouse) August 6, 2018
The eight nations are a mix of Eurasian powers: China, India, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Turkey, Italy and Greece.
Apart from the trademark toxic cocktail of hubris, illegality, arrogance/ignorance and geopolitical/geo–economic infantilism inbuilt in this foreign policy decision, the notion that Washington can decide who’s allowed to be an energy provider to emerging superpower China does not even qualify as laughable. Much more alarming is the fact that imposing a total embargo of Iranian oil exports is no less than an act of war.
Ultimate Neocon Wet Dream
Those subscribing to the ultimate U.S, neocon and Zionist wet dream – regime change in Iran – may rejoice at this declaration of war. But as Professor Mohammad Marandi of the University of Tehran has elegantly argued, “If the Trump regime miscalculates, the house can easily come crashing down on its head.”
Reflecting the fact Tehran seems to have no illusions regarding the utter folly ahead, the Iranian leadership — if provoked to a point of no return, Marandi additionally told me — can get as far as “destroying everything on the other side of the Persian Gulf and chasing the U.S. out of Iraq and Afghanistan. When the U.S. escalates, Iran escalates. Now it depends on the U.S. how far things go.”
This red alert from a sensible academic perfectly dovetails with what’s happening with the structure of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) — recently branded a “terrorist organization” by the United States. In perfect symmetry, Iran’s Supreme National Security Council also branded the U.S. Central Command — CENTCOM — and “all the forces connected to it” as a terrorist group.
The new IRGC commander-in-chief is Brigadier General Hossein Salami, 58. Since 2009 he was the deputy of previous commander Mohamamd al-Jafari, a soft spoken but tough as nails gentleman I met in Tehran two years ago. Salami, as well as Jafari, is a veteran of the Iran-Iraq war; that is, he has actual combat experience. And Tehran sources assure me that he can be even tougher than Jafari.
In tandem, IRGC Navy Commander Rear Admiral Alireza Tangsiri has evoked the unthinkable in terms of what might develop out of the U.S. total embargo on Iran oil exports; Tehran could block the Strait of Hormuz.
Western Oblivion
Vast swathes of the ruling classes across the West seem to be oblivious to the reality that if Hormuz is shut down, the result will be an absolutely cataclysmic global economic depression.
Warren Buffett, among other investors, has routinely qualified the 2.5 quadrillion derivatives market as a weapon of financial mass destruction. As it stands, these derivatives are used — illegally — to drain no less than a trillion U.S. dollars a year out of the market in manipulated profits.
Considering historical precedents, Washington may eventually be able to set up a Persian Gulf of Tonkin false flag. But what next?
If Tehran were totally cornered by Washington, with no way out, the de facto nuclear option of shutting down the Strait of Hormuz would instantly cut off 25 percent of the global oil supply. Oil prices could rise to over $500 a barrel, to even $1000 a barrel. The 2.5 quadrillion of derivatives would start a chain reaction of destruction.
Unlike the shortage of credit during the 2008 financial crisis, the shortage of oil could not be made up by fiat instruments. Simply because the oil is not there. Not even Russia would be able to re-stabilize the market.
It’s an open secret in private conversations at the Harvard Club – or at Pentagon war-games for that matter – that in case of a war on Iran, the U.S. Navy would not be able to keep the Strait of Hormuz open.
Russian SS-NX-26 Yakhont missiles — with a top speed of Mach 2.9 — are lining up the Iranian northern shore of the Strait of Hormuz. There’s no way U.S. aircraft carriers can defend a barrage of Yakhont missiles.
Then there are the SS-N-22 Sunburn supersonic anti-ship missiles — already exported to China and India — flying ultra-low at 1,500 miles an hour with dodging capacity, and extremely mobile; they can be fired from a flatbed truck, and were designed to defeat the U.S. Aegis radar defense system.
What Will China Do?
The full–frontal attack on Iran reveals how the Trump administration bets on breaking Eurasia integration via what would be its weakeast node; the three key nodes are China, Russia and Iran. These three actors interconnect the whole spectrum; Belt and Road Initiative; the Eurasia Economic Union; the Shanghai Cooperation Organization; the International North-South Transportation Corridor; the expansion of BRICS Plus.
So there’s no question the Russia-China strategic partnership will be watching Iran’s back. It’s no accident that the trio is among the top existential “threats” to the U.S., according to the Pentagon. Beijing knows how the U.S. Navy is able to cut it off from its energy sources. And that’s why Beijing is strategically increasing imports of oil and natural gas from Russia; engineering the “escape from Malacca” also must take into account a hypothetical U.S. takeover of the Strait of Hormuz.
Night view of coast of Oman, including Strait of Hormuz. (Intl Space Station photo via Wikimedia)
A plausible scenario involves Moscow acting to defuse the extremely volatile U.S.-Iran confrontation, with the Kremlin and the Ministry of Defense trying to persuade President Donald Trump and the Pentagon from any direct attack against the IRGC. The inevitable counterpart is the rise of covert ops, the possible staging of false flags and all manner of shady Hybrid War techniques deployed not only against the IRGC, directly and indirectly, but against Iranian interests everywhere. For all practical purposes, the U.S. and Iran are at war.
Within the framework of the larger Eurasia break-up scenario, the Trump administration does profit from Wahhabi and Zionist psychopathic hatred of Shi’ites. The “maximum pressure” on Iran counts on Jared of Arabia Kushner’s close WhatsApp pal Mohammad bin Salman (MbS) in Riyadh and MbS’s mentor in Abu Dhabi, Sheikh Zayed, to replace the shortfall of Iranian oil in the market. Bu that’s nonsense — as quite a few wily Persian Gulf traders are adamant Riyadh won’t “absorb Iran’s market share” because the extra oil is not there.
Much of what lies ahead in the oil embargo saga depends on the reaction of assorted vassals and semi-vassals. Japan won’t have the guts to go against Washington. Turkey will put up a fight. Italy, via Salvini, will lobby for a waiver. India is very complicated; New Delhi is investing in Iran’s Chabahar port as the key hub of its own Silk Road, and closely cooperates with Tehran within the INSTC framework. Would a shameful betrayal be in the cards?
China, it goes without saying, will simply ignore Washington.
Iran will find ways to get the oil flowing because the demand won’t simply vanish with a magic wave of an American hand. It’s time for creative solutions. Why not, for instance, refuel ships in international waters, accepting gold, all sorts of cash, debit cards, bank transfers in rubles, yuan, rupees and rials — and everything bookable on a website?
Now that’s a way Iran can use its tanker fleet to make a killing. Some of the tankers could be parked in — you got it — the Strait of Hormuz, with an eye on the price at Jebel Ali in the UAE to make sure this is the real deal. Add to it a duty free for the ships crews. What’s not to like? Ship owners will save fortunes on fuel bills, and crews will get all sorts of stuff at 90 percent discount in the duty free.
And let’s see whether the EU has grown a spine — and really turbo-charge their Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) alternative payment network conceived after the Trump administration ditched the JCPOA. Because more than breaking up Eurasia integration and implementing neocon regime change, this is about the ultimate anathema; Iran is being mercilessly punished because it has bypassed the U.S. dollar on energy trade.
Does anyone know if the Yemen war is so Saudi Arabia can build a pipeline through Yemen to bypass the straights?
Not necessary. Saudi Arabia has a long coast on the Red Sea.
@ F Tuijn, they are not building the pipelines towards the red sea. They are bulilding them through the pro saudi controlled areas in Yemen.
@SusieQ, Having in mind, that geopolitical questions have multiple answers, what you mention has little to do with the war in Yemen. There are aspects of the Yeme war, that we seldom talk aoubt out side the islamic world. Still it is about the survival of the whorehouse of saud, but not the way, you think.
Yemen, Iran, Iraq and Syria and lebanon, There is a common thread, but still not the usual Shia vs Sunni charade, you hear day after day. Take a look at what the slogan of the Yemei is.
I know it is not directly about the pipelines, but while the western media favors to call the wahabi Sunni, the highest ranking sunni and shia clergy have always declared them to be apostates. Abudl Wahhab hiimself was declared an apostate by his father and brother, whom themselves where sunni clergymen. The father of Wahhabism Ibn Teymiyye was a socalled converted jew himself. Wahhabism is a jewish religion. They know it, we know it. It is not all about oil!
Where ever the pipline ends the olil has to be shipped the rest of the way. Almost every country worth it spit has a military base in Djibouti. Take a look at the map of the area. Without the contro over the waterway all the pipelines are worthless.
With regards
@Kevin,
Some months ago I listened to a podcast which told some of the context on the war on Yemen. I may be remembering wrongly, but among other information shared were the following assertions:
1. that the Saudi Aramco oil fields were running low,
2. that the IPO listing of Aramco had been delayed because of this,
3. that there were vast oil resources in Yemeni territory (surveyed when the Arabian peninsula was still under British colonial power [one might say it still is under Anglo control though that is more complicated and for a different discussion I think])
4. that the war on Yemen has been all about accessing this oil
This is the podcast:
Isa Blumi: The Geopolitics of the War on Yemen
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=92R0ed58NMY
In addition on Saudi Arabia, I can share that some expats I’ve spoken with (I am a resident in the Middle East) who visit there report that the Saudi state is facing significant instabilities. There is a large, comparatively impoverished (as compared to the royals), and repressed population which has been pacified to date with state hand-outs and controlled through various strictures imposed by religious policy.
In addition, there are many factional and tribal groups which have only partly been bound together as a state by the original King Saud’s strategy of uniting disparate peoples through marriage (he married at least 22 wives and some think even more, see here for example: https://www.quora.com/Why-did-Saudi-Arabias-King-Abdullah-marry-so-many-women).
Should the handouts cease because there is no more money in the oil fields, these factions may well split along only recently covered over rifts. So civil war and rebellion is possible and with all the US/other weaponry purchased by the Saudi kingdom, it could be horrendous in its scale and effects.
One further tidbit that I came across today is that Le Cercle or those related to it may be playing in the Yemeni conflict. This was mentioned at around 12:00 minutes into this podcast discussion on Le Cercle:
https://www.spreaker.com/user/williamramsey/visup-on-le-cercle-fascist
@SusieQ
Thank you for that very informative reply. I think your points 1-4 are probably correct, obviously none of us knows for sure.
I don’t think any of USA “leaders” are crazy and stupid enough for an actual ground attack on Iran, but a high capacity pipeline from Saudi to Arabian Sea makes a limited war, e.g an air force campaign, less economically disastrous.
A pipeline is being built, Iran will not close the strait without being attacked, and USA will not cause a global depression by attacking Iran while Iran can close the strait….I’m confident in these assertions.
Can’t build a pipeline through a mountainous region, too costly and impractical
I love the smell of neo Ashkenazi desperation in the morning. Russia, Iran and China will do the world a huge favour and put the dumb ass “Good for the Jews” sociopaths out of their morally retarded misery.
https://tomluongo.me/2019/04/22/trump-kicks-the-sanctions-can-on-iran-oil/
Has there ever been a country, and most of its society, that pursues national self-destruction as assiduously as the Judaic apartheid state? Led, as it is, by a truly barking mad bladder of piss, manure and raw hatred, Bibi, King of the Jews (Self-Annointed)and suffering a number of syndromes, eg the Masada Complex and the Samson Option to take a ‘Jew-hating world’ down with us’, as they self-immolate.
And there is another psychological pathology that I do not think gets the attention it is due-survivor guilt. I feel that many Jews, thoroughly brainwashed, day in day out, by incessant ‘Holocaust’ commemoration until it becomes a pseudo-religion (the same situation pertains in the West for the subservient goyim, but with different consequences)have developed a subconscious desire to be consumed in the fire, like their forebears. I’ve seen the symptoms described, by Atzmon I think, as ‘pre-traumatic stress syndrome’, where the Jews, indoctrinated in the firm belief that all goyim merely exist to kill Jews, sometime or other, live day to day under immense psychic tension, manifested in extreme rage and aggression (as any Gazan child, old lady at a West Bank check-point or Jeremy Corbyn can attest, among countless others)and relentless manipulation of the societies that host the Diaspora. The campaign to destroy the BDS movement and to criminalise all support for the Palestinians and any criticism of any Jew, anywhere, at any time, for any actions, as ‘antisemitism’ shows just where we are heading, ie towards a dictatorship of Zionazis and their Sabbat Goy stooges, and just how far down the road we have been driven.
Yes, I’ve noticed there’s a lot of good articles to read at the unz review.
It seems to me that the “self hating” jews are considered “abnormal” jews because they value ethical behavior.
Whereas the “normal” jews have been socialized by ideology and religion into “narcissistic sociopaths” who value Machiavellian behavior.
In my opinion, ideologies create metaphorical antichrists out of believers and most people are incapable of understanding that their conceptual map of reality is not reality.
Eventually all ideologies including neo ashkenazi oanism run into a reality brick wall.
For the US war is cheap.
With no consequences whatsoever.
Motherland is untouched.
Not much military casualty.
European and others obey.
Everyone pays the US to maintain their lifestyle. US printing money out of thin air to pay for their imports with unreal trade balance.
Thus basically making the world slaves giving goods for about 400 billions USD each and every year (about the amount of US trade unbalance) !
That is smart scheme ! Isn t it ?
So the basic question is why should the US stop ?
They have power, they have money, they are untouched they consider themselves above others and indispensable. And they are lawless.
The so called US soft landing is pretty BS.
That would require smart and strong leadership
Not something seen in western hemisphere for decades.
Not sure liberal democracy ( bankster led) political system could even ever steer clear of such dangerous path.
IMHO only semi democratic or autocratic system could.
This could onlyend up with US bloody nose.
Or world war in worst case.
With either Russia, China and Iran. Against the US.
Others not being sovereign will simply follow suit or try to escape in whatever rat hole they find.
Something clearly stated by Iran MOD in Moscow Security Conference yesterday.
Words cannot be clearer. Speech here.
http://en.farsnews.com/newstext.aspx?nn=13980204000950
But notice the cracks in the armour.
In the missile age, the world is smaller and no one in protected.
The United States not only avoids casualties, but can not stand them. The whole war machine is built on the premise that the people can be distracted (in many ways) and not pay any attention to the war being conducted in their name. That premise evaporates when the body bags start coming home. Even the level of casualties that they were taking in the Iraq occupation would no longer be acceptable. The endless wars have gone on for two decades now, and the Americans have been saying they want them over since about 2005. The last two elected Presidents both had to lie and pretend that they were against war in their campaigns, defeating the more obvious warmongers like Hillary and McCain.
This means that in a case like Venezuela, the options to the US are very limited. The USA can not send its own troops in to fight a guerrilla war in jungles, mountains and urban areas. The casualties involved would quickly break the system of conducting wars expensively but quietly. The Vietnam level of casualties did cause a revolt back then, and even an Iraq level of casualties could not be born by a government that most people do not like and do not trust (whether its the red team or the blue team in charge).
Thus, the US only has the options of getting Colombia or Brazil to supply the cannon fodder, and while both are allies of the US and friendly with the Trump regime, neither has been willing to do so. Thus, the US looks increasingly impotent after the blustering threats it delivered. And this following the Syria case where even when they had the willing, suicidal, cannon-fodder, they were still unable to turn billions of money and high-tech weapons into a victory. Thus, this American way of war is being revealed as unsuccessful, and after 20 years of continuous war, the people at home are not willing to take any more, so the options for the warmongers to up the ante are limited or gone.
Sometimes we miss the mark. When you are planning to defend your country against America you have to hit where it count, in this situation it is the pocket of its citizens that matter. Let us assume the worst case scenario, if (a big IF) war should breakout between Washington and Tehran the most potent weapon in Iran possession is the closure of the strait of Hormuz.
Imagine the ripple effect of it against the western economies and westerners at large. In fact, this may be the wake up shot the westerners needed to throw out their capitalist/zionist ruling class. The only thing a capitalist and walking zombie citizens of the west understand is what can take extra money out of their pocket without bringing in more.
As for the Saudi/UAE/Israel they do not really matter because when the shooting war started it is the US that would do most of the heavy lifting while these opportunists will be saturated with internal dissension, Iran and its allies missiles and asymmetrical warfare.
Europe will do sweet FA.
The utterly contemptible bought and paid for Washington/ Zionist stooges and satraps crawling on their bellies to their masters have limited this “special purpose vehicle” to the import of a max $1 billion of food and medicine, provided Iran complies with a laundry list of ludicrous US demands like destroying its conventional ballistic missiles, ending support for Hezbollah and Hamas, withdrawing completely from Iraq and Syria, recognizing Israel, changing its constitution and legal system, kissing Netanyahu’s butt, kissing Trump’s butt, and a laundry list of equally crazy demands – like the Austrian ultimatum to Serbia in 1914.
The Shabbos Goy Orange Baboon in the White House has to earn his shekels from Adelson. Declaring Netanyahu’s sovereignty over Jerusalem, Golan, West Bank, and Outer Space, just doesn’t cut it.
War is on the cards, yet another illegal war for the Chosen People with the dumb goys providing the muscle, the money and the blood.
Get used to it goy.
Suck it up.
But don’t expect anything from Manny “Rothschild” Macron, Theresa “Je Suis Juif” May, Boris “I Am A Fervent Zionist” Johnson, or Tom “I Am A Proud Zionist” Watson. These whores are bought and paid for.
If a ‘friend’ is running amuk, murdering defenceless civilians, particularly children, and abusing anyone decent and human enough to criticise that mass murder, a true ‘friend’ would organise an intervention to help the patient wean itself off the self-destructive and Evil behaviour. But the Sabbat Goyim of the West respond to every new Zionazi atrocity either with feverish support, and abuse for any who dare to differ, or some mealy-mouthed, impotent hand-wringing, to pretend that they are ‘concerned’. Even that may still draw hysterical abuse as an ‘antisemite’. With ‘friends’ like these groveling bootlickers who needs enemies?
Pepe is right that the US Navy can’t keep the Straits open. While I still have not seen any proof that Iran has Sunburn missiles, the real threat is mines. Iran has a long coast on the Persian Gulf. They can dump mines into the sea which will take months or years to clear. The last time the US Navy conducted a mock mine-clearing exercise in the Gulf, they only found fifty percent of the dummy mines involved. Even if no oil tankers are damaged by mines, the shippers won’t dare to traverse the Straits and the insurance companies won’t pay for “acts of war.”
The only way the US can even attempt to control the Persian Gulf is to put tens of thousands of Marine and Army troops right on the shores of Iran, attempting to control every little place mines could be launched from any one of probably hundreds or thousands of sources. All the while being attacked by the Iranian military and the million – or ten million, depending on whose source you read – Iranian militia. US casualties will be in the thousands per year, not like the minimal hundreds of casualties of Iraq and Afghanistan.
In short, the war will cost the US taxpayer at least four times the cost of Iraq and Afghanistan combined, in terms of casualties, expense, and geopolitical chaos. And that’s if the war remains between the US and Iraq and doesn’t involve the rest of the Middle East, or the big players Russia and China.
And it will almost certainly involve another conflict between Hezbollah and Israel, probably including Syria, which will bring in Russia against Israel. Which is why the US is ramping up sanctions and interference in Lebanon, because Israel can not defeat Hezbollah alone.
Colonel Pat Lang referred the other day on his blog to what happens if the US starts mass tactical carpet bombing of southern Lebanon and the Bekaa Valley in an attempt to clear out Hezbollah positions. This is what Israel needs to happen in order to prevent Hezbollah from raining 6,500 missiles per day on Israel in support of Iran. It would be a mass slaughter of Lebanese Shia civilians with no guarantee it would prevent Hezbollah from continuing to fire missiles.
I’ve been warning about a US/Israel-Iran since at least 2006. Everyone on every Web site called me crazy, saying such a war is “impossible.” Well, maybe. But as Pepe lays out here, it’s not looking that way.
The Persian Golf is shallow. the deepest parts of it belong to iranian territorial waters. Iran has so far allowed ships to use its territorial waters. When Iran says, it will close the strait, it is enough for it to close its own territorial waters to shipping.
The entire Persian Golf is a close waterway. It is actually shaped like a horseshoe. Anybody understanding military tactics will tell you, that it is a natural trap. It only needs to be closed for a short time to do the shooting in a barrel thing.
When it comes to military strategy, Iran has been redying itself for war with the usa for the last 40 years, not the uae or the horehouse of saud or the other gasstation around the Persian Golf. If it comes to a war, I assure you, that the usa will lose its entire 5. fleet within the very first hour of the it. You can take it to the bank. The Millenium exercises proved even to the usa military planners, that Iran will be able to defeat the usa in the Persian Golf.
Iran has manufactured specific military weaponry for this specific scenario, being it Hoot torpedo, which the deadliest torpedo in the world, the Khalij Fars antiship BALLISTIC missile with a 300km range or the shallow water Qadir anti ship subs specificly built for the Persian Golf waters. It will rain missiles on the usa ships like no other time in the history of mankind. Even if the american ships dont enter the Persian Golf, they will be destroyed by the Iranian longrange antiship missiles with a range of 2000km. If you understand what a ballistic missile is, you know, that there is no defense against it in the usa navy. The usa navy does not have a chance in hell againt Iran. It will be destroyed like a childs play. Still I do understand, if you have a hard time accepting this fact. After all it goes against everything people in the west imagine about their own military power and invincibillity.
People often compare the siuation with Iraq before the second Golf war. Nothing could be further from the truth. Iraq was devastated in every aspect including militay before the war. They had no ability to purchase or produce their military needs internally. Iran on the other hand is capable of producing and replacing its military equipment as it needs.
We have a solid air defense and are capable to counter your airforce. Ask Sadam! And back they we couldnt even by barbwire from anybody! Sure you will be able to bomb us. Not even the fable iron dome can manage a it all, but you will bleed!
Politically and socially the two countries can not be compared either. One of the biggest factors with regards to the iraqi defeat was the treason of the iraqi military commanders.Before the war began, they were contacted through the jordanian intelligence agencies and were bought with 10 000 dollars each. They were told to just leave the soldiers under their command and go their way. The jordanians have openly admitted to this fact!
No doubt there are traitors and infiltrators within the iranian military. But the iranian IRGC and regular military are ideological institutions.They will fight till the last drop of their blood. And they are not going to do it alone. If you think, that the americans are going to face only the current military and IRAGC, they are truely mistaken. They will be facing 4 generation of our forces. And I promise you, that if the americans field 500 000 soldier, they will be facing 5 000 000 and lif they field a million they will be facing 10 000 000 iranians. They will bleed for every meter of land, they try to occupy.
I am one of them. I will be fighting till I die! All I need to do is to kill A SINGLE american soldier and my job is done. Any more dead american soldiers is the icing on the cake. That is how we will destroy you. Hopefully the coming war against Iran will be your last war.
The only way the americans can posibly win a war against Iran is to go nuclear! And it is quiet posible because of the sheer number of the americans casualties.
To us shia death is what the sea is to its inhabitants. What else do you have to threaten us with!
Iran doesn’t even have to lay a single mine the close the Strait to shipping, it merely has to declare that it has laid a minefield and shipping stops. Western MCM capabilities are negligible and few outside the MCM/MW world appreciate how difficult it is to clear a field to 90%, let alone the theoretical maximum 99%.
Ground mines are especially effective in shallow water like the Strait and very, very difficult to hunt. It would take months to clear the Strait and ships would still be sunk after clearance as a field is never cleared 100%.
How are Russian ‘Yakhont’ missiles ‘lining up the Iranian shore when it’s known that these missiles have not been sold to Iran…?
Iran does have the Russian P270 Moskit missiles, which are indeed formidable, supersonic, wave skimming anti ship missiles…but their range of about 100 km is considerably shorter than the ‘Yakhont’ which is better known as the P800 Oniks…
These kinds of gross factual errors do not do much for the credibility of this article…in case of actual war the US could probably keep the strait open, but would certainly take heavy damage…missile range is important…to reliably repel US carrier groups a missile range of about 1,000 km is required…preferably launched from multiple platforms encompassing air, sea, and land…100 km is not going to do it…
Iran does have a 2000km antiship ballistic missile. The americans know, we have it. It has been tested in front of the usa navy in the indian ocean! Still Iran has always said, that what they show during parades is not all they have. But regardless if the rumors are true, and people at VT believe it to be, the usa weapons are worthless against Iran. The rumors have it, that Iran possesses the same technology, that disabled uss donald cook, some iranian military have indirectly hinted it too.
Regardless a war with Iran will be the very first time the usa will actually be fighting a real army since the second world war.
@FB
If shipping insurance becomes cost prohibitive by the threat of Iran closing the strait it won’t matter if Iran does close it.
The US might be capable of keeping the strait open, but politically it won’t be palatable for the US public…..and Russia/China will make the US bleed where they can
Elijah Maginier analyzes the possibilities of a USA/Israel-driven war of aggression in the Middle East:
“CLOUDS GATHER ABOVE THE MIDDLE EAST: WAR OR NO WAR”
https://ejmagnier.com/2019/04/25/clouds-gather-above-the-middle-east-war-or-no-war-2-2/