By Francis Lee for the Saker Blog
The boom to bust economic cycles always seem to bring out the manic behaviour of the market participants who believe that this is the chance of a lifetime to make some real cash. But it was Sir John Marks Templeton an American-born British investor, banker, fund manager, and philanthropist who was moved to comment: ‘’This time it’s different.’’ He was of course being ironic.
In the Autumn of 1929 the prominent Yale economist, Irving Fisher, opined that ‘stock prices have reached what looked like a permanently high plateau.’ A few weeks after this somewhat premature pronouncement the Dow Jones Industrial Average (the US stock market) was down by one third. By the summer of 1932, the Dow closed down nearly 90% lower than its 1929 pinnacle. Fisher and many others had made the mistake of thinking that the long bull-market of the 1920s (the roaring 20s) had assumed an unstoppable momentum and would go on rising forever; an end to boom and bust if you will. Unfortunately, such sentiments have remained, as surely as summer turns to winter; and this will always be the case when a free-market capitalist system – a system underpinned by a tendency toward cyclical instability – founders on the rocks of these cycles. *
Throughout the 1920s the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) had risen inexorably; this was in part due to the new technologies and production methods – Fordism – which were allowing scope for considerable economies of scale and therefore increases in output so that a mass consumer society was to come into being. Moreover, modern management and marketing techniques could keep this consumer boom humming along in perpetuity, or so it was asserted. This situation of optimism and, as Keynes put it, rising animal spirits, was conducive to the general propensity to invest in stocks and bonds. Everyone was playing the market; the party was in full swing even in this era of prohibition. Something of the flavour of the times is captured in the novels of F Scott Fitzgerald, The Great Gatsby, and This side of Paradise.
Of course this situation was never going to last, bubbles never do, no matter how big or irreversible they may seem at the time. It should also be noted that it is precisely when the bubble phenomenon and attendant growth levels reach their most febrile and bloated state that the correction becomes imminent. And so it turned out.
The impact on the real economy of the stock market crash was that by 1933 unemployment had reached 25% of the American workforce and the economy had contracted by 30%. Worse still the catastrophe had spread to Europe as a result of the Vienna Bank of CreditAnstalt’s failure in 1931. Unemployment levels rose inexorably in both Europe and the United States. Now the writers of the age were John Steinbeck graphically illustrating the conditions of life in 1930s America in The Grapes of Wrath. The UK also felt the chill winds of depression best expressed in the literature of Arthur Greenwood’s Love on the Dole, or George Orwell’s documentary, The Road to Wigan Pier, which was his account of his travels in the depressed regions of the North of England during the 1930s
On the other side of the pond F.D.Roosevelt was elected US president in 1933 and immediately started to use active fiscal policies to create jobs and stimulate the economy. This did meet with some partial success as unemployment fell and output expanded. However in 1937/38 there was a fresh downturn and unemployment began to rise again. Moreover the geopolitical situation was beginning to change, with the seeming rise of militarism in both Germany and Japan which eventually was to push America into WW2. Of course this was led by massive military spending and a precipitous fall in US unemployment.
As an interesting sidebar worth noting is how the US economy moved into high gear in order to meet the exigencies of WW2. According to the (very orthodox) British Marxist economist Michael Roberts:
‘’The US war economy did not stimulate the private sector; it replaced the free market and capitalist investment for profit. Consumption did not restore economic growth as Keynesians (and those who saw the cause of the crisis as underconsumption) should expect, instead, it was investment in mainly weapons of destruction.
In many industries corporate executives resisted converting to military production because they did not want to lose consumer market share to competitors who did not want to convert. Conversion thus became a goal pursued by public officials and labour leaders. Auto companies only fully converted to war production in 1942 and only began contributing to aircraft production by 1943. The bombing of Pearl Harbour was an enormous spur to conversion. From the beginning from preparedness in 1939 through the peak of war production in 1944, the war economy could not be left to the capitalist sector to deliver. To organize the war economy and be sure that it needed the goods for war, the Federal government created an array of mobilization agencies, which often purchased goods, closely directed those goods’ manufacture, and heavily influenced the operation of private companies and whole industries.
The military services were largely able to curtail production destined for civilian consumption (e.g., automobiles and many non-essential foods) and even for non-war related but non-military purposes – textiles and clothing. The Department of the Treasury introduced the first general Income Tax in US history, and War Bonds were sold to the public. Beginning in 1940, the government extended the Income Tax to virtually all citizens and collected it by deduction from wages at source. Those Americans subject to Income Tax rose from one million in 1939 to forty-three million in 1945.
With such a large pool of tax-payers the US government took in $45 billion in 1945, a huge increase over the $8.7 billion collected in 1941, although still far short of the $83 billion spent on the war in 1945. Over that same period, Federal tax revenue grew from approximately 8% of GDP, to more than 20%. All told taxes provided about $136.8 billion of the wars total cost of $304 billion. To cover the remaining $167.2 billion. The Treasury expanded its Bond purchasing programme, which served as a valuable source of revenue for the government. By the time War Bond sales ceased in 1946 85 million Americans had purchased more than $185 billion worth of securities, often through automatic deductions from the pay checks.’’ (1)
Whatever the US economy was from 1933 until 1971 it certainly was not in the classical sense a free-market. The reversion to economic orthodoxy began circa 1971. This saw the return of economic orthodoxy of the marginalist school of the 1870s, which became popularised with the Thatcher-Reagan period and inspired by the monetarism of Milton Freidman and the Chicago School. But the theory was based upon a number of dubious assumptions – most importantly the abolition of boom and bust – a ‘theory’ which did not hold in either theoretical and policy terms as growth was to slow down in both the US and Europe to a snail’s pace and punctuated by ever more violent downturns.
Since the turn of the 20th to 21st century we have experienced a triple whammy of financial and economic collapses; the dot.com boom at the turn of the 1995/2000 century, the great property bubble of 2007/2008 and now the ongoing blow-out of 2020/2021. It should be noted that each successive downturn was more encompassing and deeper than those which preceded it. What gave rise to these financial bubbles was the biggest credit and property bubble in the history of capitalism. The boom from the early 90s until mid-2007 and then even worse to 2020 were all essentially floated on a sea of debt. In 2008 the collapse of the market in mortgages were advanced to almost anyone who wanted them regardless of their ability to pay; individuals spent freely on credit cards without a thought for the morrow. Their debts could be rolled over or compensated by increasing asset prices (property). So as consumers borrowed against the ongoing increase in their house prices, banks would lend them more. So we had an upward spiral: the increasing level of credit led to an increase in property prices and the increase in property prices led to an increase in the availability and uptake of credit; the classic bubble scenario. Worse still the mortgages held by the banks were repackaged (securitised) into new financial products, Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) and Collateralised Debt Obligations (CDOs) and often sold on to other financial institutions: Hedge Funds, Pension Funds, Insurance Companies and so forth. Okay so far, so good, the party roared on.
However the weak link in the chain was the American sub prime market. A group termed NINJAS, No Income, No Job, No Assets. This group began to default, and the banks were found to be holding assets of very dubious value. This initial default was the detonator which burst the house price bubble in all of those countries which had experienced a property boom – particularly the US, UK, Iceland, Ireland, Spain, and Australia.
The meltdown also started to affect countries who had not experienced a property boom but whose banks had foolishly purchased mortgage-backed derivatives (MBSs and CDOs). Banks in Germany, Switzerland, the low countries, Iceland, and more especially Eastern Europe, began to feel the heat. Many banks (and even countries – Iceland) were now insolvent and had to be rescued by the governments or loans from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Enter the credit crunch. Credit dried up even though property prices were falling. Since the US and UK economies had been essentially based upon the property market it was inevitable that the banking and property collapse would impinge very directly on the real economy. At the time of writing unemployment was rising very sharply, and deflation with falling (or static) prices and wages. Retailers were under the cosh with falling sales, and bankruptcies and boarded up shops were an increasingly common sight. We were already in a recession. Moreover there were to be further eruptions to come in the murky world of Credit Default Swaps and Derivatives. These were totally unregulated and highly leveraged markets involving literally tens of trillions of dollars.
The only question remaining was how long and how deep this financial/economic downturn would turn out to be.
The aetiology of the 2008 crash went as follows:
When a market bubble explodes the market participants which are most vulnerable are those which have expanded most rapidly and are the most highly leveraged. As real estate prices declined in the summer of 2008, Lehman Bank (2) was subject to two runs – investors and hedge funds sold their shares, both those they owned and those they could borrow, and the owners of Lehman’s IOUs were reluctant to renew their loans to the firm as they matured. Both groups were concerned that Lehman was slowed in raising capital to counter the decline in its net worth from the fall in the value of its mortgage-related securities
When Lehman’s failed, the credit markets froze, liquidity disappeared. Trading volumes declined sharply. There was the traditional rush to cash that occurs when the financial environment suddenly becomes uncertain; the firms which were in a position to extend were extremely reluctant to do so because they wanted to increase their liquidity and their holdings of cash and the firms like Lehman that relied extensively on borrowed short-term funds to finance their assets found that it was extremely difficult – and extraordinarily expensive – to refinance their maturing IOUs (3)
What an ignominious end to the fatuous claim ‘no more boom and bust’. The shame was that it was all so predictable. And the mortifying part was the extent that the government of the day colluded in and made possible this bubble creation by the financial and banking sector.
No matter. Of course nothing was learnt and the taxpayers and governments around the world were instrumental in bailing out the financial sector. Billions of monies were made available for the rescue of a delinquent financialised system that showed no signs that it had learnt anything. It was like listening to a cracked record as the 2008 crisis gradually morphed into the even deeper 2020 crisis. The Corona pandemic was simply the pin waiting for a mega-bubble – it found one. But what else did we expect? The Powers That Be (PTB) in the Western World may be appropriately compared to the ‘Bourbons’ a group of Royalists restored to power in France involving the restoration of the monarchy in 1814 by the Quadruple Alliance, Louis XVIII became King (1814–24) and was described by Charles-Maurice Talleyrand the French Diplomat, as ‘having learnt nothing and forgotten nothing.’ Such a description aptly fits our own ’Bourbons’.
These are early days in terms of the current economic situation in the world economy, particularly the western economies led principally by the USA. The present situation seems extremely unstable with large and unpredictable movements of capital in its various forms. The period of low to zero to negative interest rates in addition to massive printing and injections of Fed monies, has apparently become the bell-weather of the Fed’s monetary policy. The policy which, to a certain degree, was able to stabilize the 2008 debacle, but over time and in other areas of the economy the Fed policies have begun to unravel. The Bond Market has seen a rise in interest rates – which is a function of prior Fed monetary policy – a policy which worked at the time but which now in turn is causing negative feedback chaos in the stock markets. Rising bond yields are a negative input to the stock market as many companies finance growth through debt. If interest rates increase, then loan repayments increase which will hurt earnings. Rising interest rates are especially alarming for (REITS) Real Estate Investment Trusts and utilities as these companies use debt extensively and higher bond yields will hurt their valuations. Moreover the huge volumes of newly minted monies being injected by the Fed cannot help but to engender an inflationary push to the economy. The Fed clearly knows this but is toying with the idea that inflation is necessary in order to have any impact on debt levels – levels which are reaching ominous dimensions. In an economy which mollycoddles its inefficient businesses, economic stagnation becomes the norm and debt facilitates this policy.
Taking a leaf from Joseph Schumpeter we can say that there is no alternative to the disruptive part of the economic renewal, but there are ways of mitigating the human costs through assisting people into better jobs, this presumes though that those good jobs in new sectors and industries are being created. In preventing a business cycle shakeout the policies of the governments and central banks are strengthening the economy but making it more depressed. In operationalising low interest rates zombie economies are created. Weak businesses survive, directing cash flow to cover interest on loans that cannot be repaid but that banks will not write off. With capital tied up banks reduce lending to productive enterprises, especially small and medium-sized ones (SME’s), which account for a large proportion of economic activity and employment. Firms do not dispose of or restructure unproductive investments. The creative destruction and reallocation necessary to restore the economy does not occur.
Instead of economic renewal and growth, low interest rate returns, and central bank monetary methamphetamine have encouraged asset price bubbles, which in turn create conditions for a future financial crisis which is now coming into view.
Where we go from here is anybody’s guess; but It seems that the one lesson from history we learn is that we don’t learn from history.
NOTES
*This crisis tendency has been noted by such notables as
(i)K.Marx, who ascribed such crises as the long-run tendency of the rate of profit to decline.
(ii) Joseph Alois Schumpeter who argued that capitalist crisis therefore is not an anomaly to be eschewed, it is not an aberration to be corrected, it is not a temporary setback waiting to be remedied: crisis is the very essence of capitalism; capitalism is permanent crisis.
(ii) J.M.Keynes on the long-term decline in the marginal efficiency of capital
(1) Michael Roberts – The Long Depression 2016 – p.57.
(2) Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. was a global financial services firm founded in 1847. Before filing for bankruptcy in 2008, Lehman was the fourth-largest investment bank in the United States (behind Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and Merrill Lynch), with about 25,000 employees worldwide. It was doing business in investment banking, equity and fixed-income sales and trading (especially U.S. Treasury securities), research, investment management, private equity, and private banking. Lehman was operational for 158 years from its founding in 1850 until 2008.
(3) Kindleberger & Aliber – Manias, Panics and Crashes 2011 – p257.
Boom bust cycles, electoral cycles, fashion cycles, etc etc.
It’s like we live in a large computer program that repeats itself, the only thing that really changes is a new interface.
Humans need reprogramming to stop been obedient drones, only maybe then we can follow different cycles where we are in charge of our futures.
I disagree – that “Humans need reprogramming” .
Humans – that is Anglo – Norman – Saxon – Arabic – Latins humans, need to learn how to think again. As one delightful writer from Russia said “The inherent ability to think has been given to all us – but it’s asymptomatic in many. As with nearly all writers of Oceania, this writer too, sees America and her vassals as being all t here is of “Humanity”. All there is of “the World.
Well, No. There are other peoples, with different gene pools, cultures, history, mythology, ways of knowing and mind sets.
But certainly, The last 5000 yrs of Arabic – Franco-Germanic- Latin civilisation has been one of stupidity – increasing incrementally.
This is the Humanity which is now so stupid it cannot survive. At least – not those whose civilisations exemplify this massive stupidity. I dont include the Orientals of the Pacific North Coast of the Northern Continental Massif. Nor, most emphatically, the Russian peoples of the Global North – the only Northern people in the world.
But the current dominant but toppling Empire of Oceania, the Norman-Saxon Anglo Empire, has been growing more and more stupid over the last 300 yrs, such that it now cannot walk and chew gum; it can hardly understand simple language, let alone anything else.
It has allowed itself to become trapped in the high worn walls of outmoded, archaic, systems and the institutions they built; now it cannot see over those walls into the green fields of alternative possibilities beyond.
It cannot shake itself free of a pattern of thought and mindset, dictated increasingly as it is by “feeling” ** and devoid of all logic; it cannot see any alternative to the increasingly narrow path leading to a trap there is no backing out of; it has already driven itself into psychosis;; the inability to grasp reality as different from illusion and delusion, of Schizophrenia; the need to control and suck energy from others in order to fill the abyss within, of Narcissism, and the total lack of any empathy, imagination, soul, of psychopathy.
We know we speak of “the rulers” .. Well, yes, there are many among the Hive Mind Masses who are good and decent people who are horrified at what they see around them; but those Rulers cannot have got where did alone – and when it comes to perception manipulation, or brain washing, you can only make people believe what they want to anyway.
Where to go from here? The World must needs treat Oceania like a committed mental patient, on all fronts, leave it to fall over as it must, for a house divided against itself cannot stand, and grow in it’s own way down the years, ignoring this now forgotten, dust gathering, once – “Empire” as it collapses like Ozymandias, and then starts perhaps to learn a new way of being.
Pamela
“The World must needs treat Oceania like a committed mental patient …. That is correct. However, this mental patient is very dangerous, having at it’s disposal nukes and being prepared to do something very foolish on the international scene in order to preserve it’s empire, which is cracking up.
The legacy of FDR is a very unfortunate one. He is remembered for his “New Deal”, which only reduced social suffering and unemployment, but did not remove them. It was only World War Two which drastically reduced unemployment in the US, not only because of the need to produce, but because more than 10 million men ended up in uniform. FDR’s behavior was anything but honorable. He provoked Japan into war by introducing a blockade which prevented the import of oil, and he knew that Japan was going to attack Pearl Harbor (the US Navy removed its aircraft carriers and newest ships from the Base, leaving Japan to bomb old ships from the First World War). By provoking Japan into war, FDR also ended up with a war against Germany, Japan’s ally, something he wanted, as this promulgated Anglo-American globalism. Today you have US troops in both Japan and Germany. People forget that FDR was a 33 degree Freemason, just like Truman who succeeded him.
The war ended in 1945 and the US ended with the Military Industrial Complex, which cannot function without war. Just five years later, the US fights a war in Korea, one of the most brutal it ever fought. Today it is fighting in Syria, Afghanistan,etc., and provoking both Russia and China. Not wise. Then again, what is Wall Street going to do when it’s looking into a gigantic foreign and domestic debt, dollars backed by nothing, seeing the rise of both Russia and China while at the same time seeing the US lose it’s influence and prestige throughout the world, not to mention it’s empire breaking up ? No doubt we shall see what Wall Street is going to do through it’s proxies, the US military and politicians on the Capitol.
** “Feeling thinking, as defined by Jung and expanded by Myers-Briggs. It is a refusal to use objective logic which “thinks, ie. evaluates the evidence gathered in order to arrive at a non-contradictory conclusion to direct decision, and which looks for objective evidence, and instead arrives at it’s conclusions dependent on the emotions generated within, irrespective of logic or evidence.
“If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks…will deprive the people of all property until their children wake-up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered…. The issuing power should be taken from the banks and restored to the people, to whom it properly belongs.”
– Thomas Jefferson in the debate over the Re-charter of the Bank Bill (1809)
All of this is relatively new historically speaking: fractional reserve banking, electronic fiat currencies etc.
Its a Western experiment that is not sustainable and is extremely corrupt made to suck wealth from the people and keep them poor.
Marx makes a profound statement in Capital III: “Usury centralises money wealth.” “It does not alter the mode of production, but attaches itself to it as a parasite and makes it miserable. It sucks its blood, kills its nerve, and compels reproduction to proceed under even more disheartening conditions. … usurer’s capital does not confront the labourer as industrial capital,” but “impove-rishes this mode of production, paralyses the productive forces instead of developing them.”
This is an excellent and most accurate summation of how we’ve arrived at our current fork in the road. Rest assured that the people pulling the strings know the details by heart already and have long been planning accordingly. Where do we go from here? Enter the Great Reset. In short, we’re not here by mere happenstance. Agency on the part of criminally bad actors is what’s missing here.
exactly! we have not arrived here by happenstance! where do we go from here?
the Covid situation, also not by happenstance as there is nothing natural about it, suggests planned deliberate
creation of what someone has already described as ‘techno feudalism’.
that appears to be where we go from here: the enslavement of the entire ordinary western population by vaccine and further engineering, into total, controlled compliance. then soon the actual replacement of the techno enslaved by Cyborg
Yep. I see the “selling” of the various vaccines’ efficacy is a regular part of my newsfeed every morning now. Only a matter of time before they tighten the noose around our necks and make these things impossible to avoid. Luckily for me, I’m getting up there in years now. No need to worry about lack of retirement funds, as it appears the big boys have other plans for most of us.
** “Feeling thinking, as defined by Jung and expanded by Myers-Briggs. It is a refusal to use objective logic which “thinks, ie. evaluates the evidence gathered in order to arrive at a non-contradictory conclusion to direct decision, and which looks for objective evidence, and instead arrives at it’s conclusions dependent on the emotions generated within, irrespective of logic or evidence.
Thank you very much for this essay as it comes on the heels of what I wrote over at the ourfiniteworld.com. There I commented:
Whats ahead?
The other week I overheard a conversation at work of someone who bought a house over 100,000 asking price. My friends were in disbelief really and I complained bitterly how absurd that was and unbelievable really. It’s just going to cause more and more homelessness. I then gave my friends and fellow co-workers a quote by a central banker Paul Warburg who wrote and complained bitterly about the political incompetence of his day 1920’s. After watching the roaring 20,s he said:
“The world lives in a fools paradise based upon fictitious wealth, rash promises and mad illusions. We must beware of booms based upon false prosperity which has its roots in inflated credits and prices.”
I have a dear friend who owns a house valued at 1.2 million dollars. It is a nice house but for a house that is worth that kind of money i just shake my head in disbelief. You would think for that kind of money the home would come with real wood flooring but no its laminate. What about the fixtures all no name cheap brands. What about views any? No nothing. No mountain views, no river views, no nothing but the neighbors next door? As for the layout? the laundry room is next to the living/kitchen and so narrow the door doesn’t open fully? As for the location hardly anything to write home about. It is actually in an area that 25 years ago was known as the least desirable.
1.2 million? I wouldn’t give you 500,000 for the place. So what makes it worth that kind of money? If one were to build it from scratch today just the materials alone would hardly come to 200,000.
If Paul Warburg were around today he would be aghast truly aghast that nothing changes. It’s all greed, that’s all it really is. Lets just sing and dance ourselves into the graves folks and as for our children don’t have any I’d say! I know my friend has nightmares about what his teenage children will face and how is he going to afford it all?
I also have another dear friend a maintenance apprentice working towards his ticket and says to me he would be more than happy to work for 10.00 dollars an hour if only the cost of everything would come down. As he sees it by the time he gets his ticket even at 35. an hour he wouldn’t be able to afford a blasted thing. I mention to him the story above and he concurs the new way to become wealthy its through greed and stupidity. Buy something one day for 250,000 spend some money on renovations and turn around and get someone to give you double that price. Meanwhile the homelessness just continues to grow because guess what there are no jobs at 100 dollars an hour?
Energy Gail Tverberg? There are so many variables at work and at the heart of it all is sin! Paul Warburg had it right didn’t he “false prosperity” and its roots is where? Ultimately, in the human heart.
The insanity of it all is just so well insane. I’d actually like to see interest rates go back to 18%. lol Everybody would be homeless then what? Go visit the grave of the one guy who understood it all really. Paul Warburg.
Truly Mr. Lee we learn nothing from history, nothing.
https://ourfiniteworld.com/2021/03/20/headed-for-a-collapsing-debt-bubble/comment-page-2/#comment-285566
Do not be fooled by the likes of Paul Warburg, a clever international banker, who devised and organized the secret meeting on Jekyll Island, when a group of his cronies got together to create and write the Federal Reserve Act of 1913, that legalized fractional reserve banking, that allows private banks to create money out of thin air every time they make a loan to the US Treasury, US corporations and private citizens. This effectively took away the power of the US Treasury to create the American money supply and and gave it to an exclusive group of international bankers, who charge compound interest on all money so created. No debts = no money
After President Woodrow Wilson was inveigled to sign the Bill before Congress, he later regretted his foolishness.
“Despite warnings, Woodrow Wilson signed the 1913 Federal Reserve Act. A few years later he wrote: “I am a most unhappy man. I have unwittingly ruined my country. A great industrial nation is controlled by its system of credit. Our system of credit is concentrated. The growth of the nation, therefore, and all our activities are in the hands of a few men. We have come to be one of the worst ruled, one of the most completely controlled and dominated Governments in the civilized world no longer a Government by free opinion, no longer a Government by conviction and the vote of the majority, but a Government by the opinion and duress of a small group of dominant men.”
– President Woodrow Wilson
@ Kapricorn4
Yes, don’t be fooled. I always get this when I quote this morsel. In any case I believe it was Aldrich who wanted and pushed for that agenda more so than anyone else really. Beyond that here’s something to chew on about the Political incompetence that Warburg would have understood completely and it occurred interestingly enough the year after his death?
“In 1870,America’s banks went on the gold standard. This meant that any American could come back to the bank with his paper currency and exchange it for gold. In 1933 however, this was changed. In the aftermath of the crash of 29 and the depression that followed, the morale of the nation was such that it was willing to accept any revisions or suggestions which might point to a way out of their misery. Mr. Roosevelt asks the government to pass legislation demanding that the American people give up their gold. This they did, receiving in exchange paper money showing they had received 20.67 an once for their precious metal. Immediately however, the government raised the price of gold to 35.00 an once, realizing a 3 billion dollar profit. When asked his opinion on this particular action Senator Carter Glass replied to President Roosevelt on April 27, 1933,
“I think it is worse than anything Ali Baba’s forty thieves ever perpetrated.”
Cantelon pg 43
Shame we don’t have Warburgs take on this yes?
@ Kapricorn4
Do you ever feel that the more one learns the more questions there are? Like for example If the Aldirch plan was so great and Warburg was the great evil why did the above happen? What didn’t they have or find the solution?
What gets me though is after WW2 the name Carroll Quigley comes up and what do we learn from him? Well, after being given access to all the secret papers and such he makes the claim that these bankers are the hope of the world? Hence his book Tragedy and Hope?
What was the tragedy? Roosevelt?
This from Shamir riles me off! He has created a mystifying something here that makes Magufuli look the innocent jackass. and also left the murderous deep state look and unknown unfathomable and impregnable and unstoppable force in the world.
It seem clear that Magufuli did not think so, that he had a chance against them, that they are not impregnable and unstoppable. and Magufuli would have known who they are and their relative power in the world and thought he could make his way through safely.
the Globalist deep state or whatever the hell it is, could not have been as mysterious to him as president of a country that is pretty developed, not a barnyard of a country. as mysterious and impregnably powerful as Shamir paints the Globalist deep state his effort does appear to be the creation an unnecessary mystery.
what I did was try with focus on Tanzania to get a sense of those around Magufuli: his cabinet and party especially, the opposition, the general treatment of his disappearance and the attitudes of all around Magufuli in Tanzania. I was looking for everything/anything that could have helped shed light on what was going on.
my resulting impression is his party/the government all knew what had happened to him…at least those I saw repeatedly in the reports I read and saw. they all appeared to have known what was up, knew before it happened, knew when he was killed and he was dead quickly, right at the start of the so-called disappearance, into and through the length of Magufuli’s ‘disappearance’. Magufuli was missing for about 3 weeks. he was likely dead at the start of that period which is why the disappearance story. so his party was playing games with the Tanzanian public all along
Magufuli’s fatal mistake was apparently, not considering his own party to be traitors up to the point and extent of killing their own president directly. he knew of their corruption, fired lots of them: he knew they were capable of much but of going all the way?
maybe if he did think that way about them he would have neutralized them, cleansed them, bring in new people would be committed to the nation, people whom it would take some doing and time to corrupt, time in which much of his program and its positive effects would/may have been realized
Magulufi could not have been killed save by his own in Tanzania. It is not as if foreigners could have been sent in white men/women, or foreign Black men, to kill the president. that would not wash unless they were clandestine terrorists who set bombs that blew up the presidents car, or plane/helicopter, or blew up his office for eg., which would leave a huge bloody mess and tell tale signs no doubt
No! that murder was best to have been done by stealth, and stealth could be only in the province of nationals. and by none but close to the president himself, those around him constantly!
it looked like they all knew what was afoot, his own party members and cabinet: It looked like they all agreed and carried out the murder. whether Magulufi was mistaken and remis relative to them or not, it seems clear to me that he was killed by his own party/cabinet, in the service of the globalist deep state.
no grand mystery at all. how can there be a grand mystery when the logistics that I see are considered. it makes everything obvious. Magulufi must have had major Tanzanian police and military security as president of the country. where in the hell were they?
No foreign entity would have been able to get through such security to harm the president? any such foreign parties would have been quickly identified and neutralized in Tanzania.
I generally enjoy Shamir agree with him or not. not this time however. this time he pissed me off! who the hell is Shamir actually working for? his writing purports disagreement with the status quo in the world, and the state of the world they have engineered. this time I am not so sure that is indeed the case
Thanks for this contribution regarding Magulufi.
I haven’t noticed much written about him (but I don’t watch the MSM and so there might have been a lot of reporting on this situation that I missed), yet I think it is very important to understand exactly what occurred in T’nia.
Was it related to M’s making fun of the whole “pandemic” routine?
Or did the betrayal and intention to eliminate him predate the “pandemic”?
SoIi was glad to see the Shamir essay, but his implication is that M was eliminated by international Deep State actors. Have you posted your comment/feedback at the Unz Review (which is where I read the Shamir piece)?
Perhaps Shamir needs more input on his speculations?
Katherine
How does that quote go again, “I can hire one half of the poor to kill the other half” (its actually “I can hire one half of the working class to kill the other half”, but same difference). Poor people are easier to control, the more uneducated and the lower the IQ the better. The Kalergi Plan has a definite focus on Africans, as has been eloquently demonstrated by Magulufi.
Its usually the big mining companies who decide who governs in Africa, but even fruit trading companies can conduct coups, as happened to Honduras as a result of actions of the Cuyamel Fruit Company, hence the now well known term “banana republic”. Looks like the vaccine companies are getting into the action as well. The various 3 letter agencies are always involved.
Just a hunch, but maybe the dynamic of “not learning” from past cycles because there is an underlying linear agenda and progression to the whole thing:—namely, consolidation of a small elite, concentration of wealth and power in this particular elite,—all done in cyclical fits and starts. The mechanism of this is through endless conflict-strife on all levels, ranging from physical violence and warfare through mental and spiritual violence and warfare, so as to generate the maximal amounts of rage energies and fear energies as the ultimate ends in themselves,—to feed “emotional organisms” that might as well be labelled as “devils” or “demons”. Distinctions and differences on the basis of money and material possessions, and/or religions, and/or races, and/or ethnicities-nationalities-cultures, and/or gender, and/or even such factors as age,—they become pretexts for violent conflicts and heightened hostile emotions, those energies of rage and fear.
oh boy! I apologise for the misplacement of my comment above. and the Saker still posted it up. Thanks I guess.
I am not unappreciative at all but I must change my old habits. I tend to go on and on but I am older now and diabetic and always hungry as there is little I can eat safely. and at 4 am I should have gone to sleep to refresh some hours before.
Thanks saker.
Well, I appreciated seeing the comment!
Katherine
Thanks for your support!
there isn’t much alternative commentary I have found of the Tanzanian situation, discussing the likely murder of Magulufi. there are a few links I have marked and will post up soon.
most commentary and analysis is mainstream. here is a link the the T’nian Citizen that covers much of the issue including Magulufi’s funeral, conveying an idea of the unhappiness of the population about Magufuli’s death:
https://www.thecitizen.co.tz/
https://www.globalresearch.ca/john-magufuli-death-african-freedom-fighter/5740438
Only sissies learn, because they’re weak.
Real men don’t learn, because they’re strong, and might makes right.
In case you were wondering, yes, I’m being sarcastic . . . except that this is one of the dominant assumptions in American society.
Forgive me.
Is it not obvious that markets are manipulated?
Is it not obvious that boom and bust cycles are manufactured?
Is it not obvious that the private central banks have engaged in these activities with and without the cooperation of government(s) for the benefit of their owners and associates?
Is it not obvious that media are part of the deception and, either by incompetence or prostitution, gleefully herd the lemmings to the cliff, over and over again?
Is it not obvious, in the United States, that government has taken control of local education to dumb down education so that graduates are intelligent enough to perform their slave skills and docile enough to tolerate the situation?
The Australian property market, long propped up by inefficient taxation and prolonged crazy migration continues on its merry ride to Armageddon. Property prices increased 20% during covid. An 0.1% increase in interest rates sees 40% of mortgages stressed. Nuts
The AU bubble will burst eventually due to high gearing and int rate % sensitivity.
One the experts once said once an eco or financial cycle turns up or down nothing can stop it until it has run its course.
The question is with all the money printing will this cause a real increase in physical demand-supply or will it caused stagflation like the 1970s ?
Underlying the problem is though the lack of jobs in western countries (US EU etc…) caused by structural changes and imports and the alleged pandemic effecting the very people who would spend it on new production items. This then effects second and third world countries.
The build up over decades of a stock of assets and produced item also result in liquidity traps for money Govts spend or hand out and banks loan. These vortex are like black holes in the financial system.
Overshadowing this is the climate agenda which is behind the pandemic which seeks to contract production to cut emissions.
The interplay of all these will normally result in problems.