World leaders wrestle with a maelstrom of complex, burning issues as they prepare for November 30 summit
by Pepe Escobar (cross-posted with the Asia Times by special agreement with the author)
The G-20 in Buenos Aires on November 30 could set the world on fire – perhaps literally. Let’s start with the US-China trade war. Washington won’t even start discussing trade with China at the G-20 unless Beijing comes up with a quite detailed list of potential concessions.
The word from Chinese negotiators is not at all bleak. Some sort of agreement could be reached on about a third of US demands. Debate on another third could ensue. But the last third is absolutely off-limits – due to Chinese national security imperatives, such as refusing to allow the opening of the domestic cloud computing market to foreign competition.
Beijing has appointed Vice-Premier Liu He and Vice-President Wang Qishan to supervise all negotiations with Washington. They face an uphill task: to pierce through President Donald Trump’s limited attention span.
On top of it, Beijing demands a “point person” with the authority to negotiate on behalf of Trump – considering the mixed-message traffic jam out of Washington.
Now compare this with the message coming from the research institute fabulously named Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era under the Party School of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC): the US has started the “trade friction” essentially “to hinder China’s industrial upgrading.”
That’s the consensus at the top.
And the clash is bound to get worse. Vice President Mike Pence accused China of “meddling in American democracy,” “debt diplomacy,” “currency manipulation,” and “IP theft.” The Foreign Ministry in Beijing dismissed it all as “ridiculous.”
It’s enlightening to pay close attention to what Foreign Minister Wang Yi told the Council on Foreign Relations – as diplomatically as possible: “China will follow a path of development different from historical powers.” And China will not seek hegemony.
From the point of view of the US National Security Strategy, that’s irrelevant; China has been framed as a fierce competitor and even a threat. President Xi Jinping will not cave in to Washington’s trade demands. So expect a possible non-meeting between Xi and Trump in Buenos Aires.
The threat of a nuclear first strike
Things look even hairier on the Russian front. For all of Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s Taoist patience, Moscow’s diplomatic circles are exasperated by serious American threats – as in the US Navy possibly enforcing a blockade to restrict Russia’s energy trade. Or worse: the ultimatum that Russia must stop developing a missile that according to Washington violates the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, otherwise the Pentagon will destroy it.
This is as serious as it gets – because it amounts to committing to a US nuclear first strike.
In parallel, BP CEO Bob Dudley told the Oil & Money conference in London that any additional US sanctions against top Russian energy companies would be disastrous. “If sanctions were put on Rosneft or Gazprom or Lukoil like what happened with Rusal, you would virtually shut down the energy systems of Europe, it is a bit of an extreme thing to happen,” he said.
On the BRICS front, Russia and India deftly maneuvered on their own and managed to squash some US geostrategic planning against the three major poles of Eurasia integration: Russia, China and Iran.
The Quad – US, Japan, Australia, India – was conceived to box in China across the Indo-Pacific, in parallel to confining Russia’s margin of maneuver. The Quad is not exactly in sterling form after India decided to buy Russian S-400 missile systems. Trump has promised revenge.
On top of the S-400 deal, Russian companies will be building six additional nuclear reactors in India, at a cost of $20 billion each, over the next decade. Rosneft signed a 10-year deal to sell India 10 million tons of oil a year. And India will continue to buy oil from Iran, paying for it in rupees.
On the EU front, it’s all about Germany. There are few illusions in Berlin about the EU’s wobbly future. The export-centered German economy is focused on Asia. Germany is doubling down on solidifying an Asian-style model – a few large companies that are national champions able to turbo-charge exports. The US market – under protectionist winds – now is just an afterthought.
Toxic tropics
Then there’s the Brazilian tragedy. President Mauricio Macri ruined Argentina with a neoliberal shock. The nation is now a hostage of the IMF.
A possible scenario is a G-20 in which Argentina will be learning how to deal with a fascist leading its close neighbor and top trade partner, Brazil.
Former paratrooper Jair Bolsonaro may be xenophobic and mysoginistic, but is certainly not a nationalist. The self-billed tropical “Messiah” routinely salutes the US flag. His economic hit man is a Chicago Boy bent on selling the country out – much to the delight of “investors” and “market” experts from New York and Zurich to Rio and Sao Paulo.
Forget about creating jobs or even attempting to solve Brazil’s immense social problems: acute social inequality, pressing investments in health and education, urban insecurity. Bolsonaro’s only “policy” is to weaponize the population in a Mad Max remix.
Everything under Bolsonaro should proceed under the unmitigated reign of a Hobbesian “free” market. Forget about any possibility of a moderating state intervention in the complex relations between Capital and Labor.
This is the apex of a complex process unleashed years ago in Brazil via think tanks such as the Atlas Network, loads of money and, last but not least, an evangelical/neo-pentecostal tsunami.
The pillars of the Brazilian carnage are powerful agro-business and mineral exploitation interests, toxic Brazilian mainstream media, evangelicals, a financial sector totally subservient to Wall Street, the weapons industry, the completely politicized judiciary, the police, intel services, and the armed forces.
And the stars of the show are of course the Beef-Bible-Bullet combo – with their scores of Congress members – overseen by the Goddess of the Market.
Neoliberalism never wins elections in Brazil. So the only way to implement “reforms” is via a sub-Pinochet. Expect widespread social-environmental havoc, indiscriminate killing of rural and native Brazilian leaders, an unmitigated bonanza for the weapons industry, banks celebrating Christmas every week, abysmal cultural repression, total denationalization of the economy, and workers and pensioners paying for all these “reforms.” Call it business as usual.
Bolsonaro’s fascist tendencies were normalized not only by the powers that be in Brazil. Argentina’s Foreign Minister Jorge Faurie qualified him as a “center-right” politician.
Beijing and Moscow – for BRICS reasons – and the EU in Brussels are appalled by Brazil’s descent into the maelstrom. Russia and China were counting on a strong Brazil contributing to a multipolar world as during the time of Lula, who was a major BRICS driving force.
For the EU, it is hard to stomach a fascist leading their top trading partner in Latin America, and the heart of Mercosur. For the Global South as a whole, the implosion of Brazil, one of its leaders, is an unmitigated tragedy.
Now picture Washington as a raging compendium of threats and sanctions. An EU fractured to the hilt – denouncing Asian illiberalism while impotent to fight the “rise of the deplorables” at home. BRICS in disarray, with two in a serious clash with Washington, one out of the game and one on the fence – among the top four. The House of Saud rotting from the inside. Iran not even at the G-20 table. Time to sing What a Wonderful World.
Most of the problems arise from US actions. The US should be declared a threat to global humanity.
Absolutely Spot On ! They (USA) are the Worlds Biggest terrorist Organization.
”For the EU, it is hard to stomach a fascist leading their top trading partner in Latin America, and the heart of Mercosur.”
Sounds promising. Makes you wonder what fascism in Brazil has that upsets the Zionazis in Brussels (EU + NATO).
Thank you Pepe, fantastic work as usual.
The US is willing to burn the rest of the world, literally, rather than be overtaken by the natural course of events and assume a place as a nation among nations.
The real problem is that the US is not a rational nation; deep in it’s collective unconscious is a core belief system that whatever it does is right for no other reason that they are doing it. Even if it is wrong it is right (Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan, Native American indians, Korea, Yemen, you name it). Any negative aspect will be rationalized because by default America cannot possibly be Evil (see movies such as American Sniper etc, so popular with people afflicted with this mindset).
You cannot argue with such a mindset, it’s like trying to argue with a religious fanatic – arguments, no matter how valid, does not penetrate because reason is beside the point, it’s a belief system which is forbidden to be examined because the self identity is tied to it.
America is a fascist military junta. It will go down in flames and take as many of the rest of us it can just because it’s not the most popular guest at the party and is finding it increasingly difficult to buy everyone cake after it’s playground bully boy tactics have stolen everyone else’s pocket money.
Just be careful to notice the difference between the leadership of the American oligarchy and the American people. With the last two Presidents, Americans have elected the candidate who promised a change of course over the choice of an opponent who was an obvious warmonger (Obama over Mad Bomber McCain, and Trump over Humanitarian Armaggedon Hillary.) We’ve been trying to get some change. Unfortunately, both Obama and Trump were serial liars and con-men. But hey, in American politics, the oligarchy only allows us two choices.
@ Anonymous
Two choices yes – Neoliberalism and Neoconservatism OR Neoconservatism and Neoliberalism. All candidates work for their Oligarch donors, the War Racketeering Industry and Wall Street. I know there are a lot of intelligent and awake people in the US I just don’t think they can vote their way out of this mess, the system is far too rigged and controlled by the Oligarchy. There are far too many booyah “patriots”, too many Israeli firsters and Zionists, too many Evangelicals, too many GOP and DNC party-bots, too many supremacists, too many fake “liberals”, too many self-serving Boomers, too many “Red/Blue staters” vs. “Blue/Red staters”, too many one issue voters and so on.
Until all these people are prepared to reject the entire rotten US System and start again nothing will change. So nothing will change. Reality is the US has been a military fascist junta married to a banking cabal since JFK was murdered, if not before, but the American people have been telling themselves otherwise to feel better about themselves (Freedom and Democracy TM).
I think all comments do or should be understood as against the leadership and not against the citizens. And, living in Canada I sympathize with your dilemma. All our choices are controlled by powerful forces it seems. This would seem to indicate that a solution will not be found by voting in national elections. You mention the last two presidents, Obama and Trump, both promising change. I would have voted for Trump based on the stark differences in what he promised and said he believed in compared to Hillary or any of the others. It didn’t take long to expose that fiasco. But with Obama it is different. I followed his first election very closely. It was in the midst of the great financial meltdown. As I listened to him string together long, flowery statements which didn’t really say much or answer the question posed, and when I realized who he was connected with and that he intended to ‘fundamentally’ change America, well it scared the crap out of me! I lived in Toronto then, in possession of the family home. Never intended to leave there. But, with all this, I sold the house and left Toronto and became mortgage free. So, while we are focused on the oligarchs in our condemnations, there is also a big problem in western society. We have been conditioned in our thinking to the point where morality doesn’t play a part. Our prosperity economically trumps all. If morality played a part, why would anyone vote for Obama, a man who as a senator voted against trying to save little babies who survived abortion? This is the heart of a monster, not a savior. So, until a moral sense can be instilled in a large part of society, our world has only one direction to follow, and that is down. We are circling the toilet bowl.
“The US is willing to burn the rest of the world, literally, rather than be overtaken by the natural course of events and assume a place as a nation among nations.who cares whether the USA is a rational player or not. I don’t! and I hope the Russians don’t care either.”
the Jews/Khazars who control the USA are going to burn the world anyway..if they think they have to. they are behind all the supposed irrationality of the USA.
Russia and the nations of the world must do what they must do without any dam consideration of and for the USA and its irrationality. to hell with them. let them burn. they will burn too.
we must also put no salt in our mouths to impede what we have to say about the USA and the Jews/Khazars. they must hear and know what the world thinks of them. in there may be seeds of their own survival that may lead to different more positive outcomes than a consuming fire.
what the hell else can the world do relative to the Anglo/Zionists?
bending over backward in appeasement, playing the extraordinary rational actors wont work. regardless and besides, the Anglo/Zionists will convert any and all appeasement into assessments of the weakness of the rest of the world and play it that way.
so they will attack relentlessly, what they will see as weakness even if they know better. that is the way they will play appeasement! period!!!!
the Khazars control and they will not tolerate a world in which they are not in control, in-charge, dominant. they will not be satisfied until they have created a prison planet, and have ‘domesticated’ the rest of the human species. they believe their own “chosen” bullshit… and if there is real insanity, irrationality in the equation, there is where it is.
the Khazars are the antagonists in the human piece, who if not totally contained will destroy the humans species anyway, regardless. the Khazars have already done so much evil to humanity I do not see how the rest of the world can avoid calling them to account. and the khazars know this…and wont tolerate any such development. they will blow the planet first
based on the evidence how does the rest of the world deal with the Khazars on trial for their crimes against humanity..indescribably evil behavior?
it is not that the rest of us are saintly. we are not! but my god! look at what the Khazars have done..and what they keep doing to the human species! who can let them get away with that?
so what do you/we do with them..how to punish them for their crimes..and that means you must collar them first.
which is where we are at and why the consuming fire looms. and why in the equation Appeasement is not a good strategy at all, inviting the very fire appeasement is calculated to prevent.
only the real threat of the fire from the opposite side is valid. and even that may be no deterrent because the fire is the last refuge and resolution of/for the antagonist himself.
so what must be done..what policy to follow?
the rest of the world must follow the real interest of survival..democracy and general prosperity and human development..period, clear, in normal human terms and ways.. looking for the ways and means of the general security and prosperity we need to live, exist… unapologetically and without appeasement relative to the Anglo/Zionists..without a hint of concern for their losses and negative potential, for their failure and descent into the poverty they have imposed on the world for centuries.
its their time now and they must make the best of it. we can work with them if they are peaceable and positive. to hell with them if they are not. and if its the fire its the fire. you are welcome!!!
they have to burn,the judeo-zionists, a good part of the world in order to mantain the value of their “printed” fortunes.today’s hegemonic powerhouse of the West,the centralized financial system needs to “shake” the status quo:the time is running against them.
The chaos and consented violence process that is looming over Brazil is not a fairy tale.
the mounting tides and overflows seem unthinkable.
I don´t remember of such a nazi fasci outburst ruling over a large, populated , mid income and socially complex country ever before. Things like what is oncoming have ocurred in places like Mianmar, Cambodia or congo which are a far different kind of states and societies.
And in the previous latin dictatorships there was no Web, no instant communications, no such social complexity…
Bolsonaro will be greeted with red carpets in Washington, London and Berlin. He will sign billion dollar arms deals while Brazilians starve and the Amazon is burned. Democracy no longer exists in Latin America, the USA interferes intensely especially via Evangelical protestant fundamentalism. Bolsonaro was appointed already by CIA as Reichskommisar on behalf of the Empire. There is never a problem with Fascism morally for the USA and west Europe- they rehabilitated Nazis right after the war, many of them becoming rich and powerful and living to old age, especially in the USA Operation Paperclip which made developers of genocidal weapons into millionares. USA acts textbook Fascist wether Obama, Bush or Trump is at the head.
Indeed things look like Empire’s nazito forces are assembling in attack posture. See in addition to Pepe’s essay this tasty-bit…https://www.globalresearch.ca/on-us-naval-blockades-and-a-hard-days-war-economic-warfare-against-russia-is-not-working/5656970
One defends when one calculates sneak attack on one’s self in imminent. VVP has said as much. And the Russians use, they have said, a predictive analytical computer to calculate rick and proximity o such a first strike. Nazito disposition seems to imply that there is a real serious hair-trigger scene coalescing just now.
I found the pair of articles taken together very sad-making. One supposes Mathis the mad-dog does not support this plan – and they say he’s about to go bye-bye…another point to correlate…
Anyway…excerpt:
“agreed at the NATO Summit in Brussels that the 2nd Fleet will also become a NATO command should hostilities break out. It is so important to them that the NATO officer commanding the massive Trident Junction military exercises taking place in Norway this month is an American admiral, Admiral James Foggo, who also serves as NATO’s commander of Joint Force Command in Naples.
The Trident Junction war games posit an imaginary invasion of Norway by Russia. Since such an invasion is not conceivable it must be assumed by Russian military planners and neutral observers, by any intelligent person, that the exercise is meant to be major provocation against Russia, a threat, for to put 40,000 men, 70 major ships, including a nuclear aircraft carrier strike group, and hundreds of aircraft into Norway, a major effort in logistics and planning is not just to show Russia NATO’s capabilities. It’s a practice for the real thing…”
And this is the arena for the G20…another point to correlate.
Further excerpt: “…reliance on Russian oil is anathema to the American strategic planners, yet a blockade of that oil supply would raise oil prices to very high levels, hurting US consumers while helping Russia increase its revenue. Some US oil companies would benefit from higher prices, if there was no war, of course, but not as much as Russian companies in this scenario, so again, the threat seems as stupid as it is reckless, because it would not benefit the US and would lead to war. So why make it? And why make the threat shortly thereafter of a preemptive strike on Russia to “take out” Russian defence [sic] systems?…”
In an rhyming of the 01 June 1916 fubar in the Skagerrak Strait…only with modern long-range gizmos and gadgets… What could go wrong?
Think I’ll got watch “On The Beach ” (the old version)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ue8hC5qqMt4
” The G-20 in Buenos Aires on November 30 could set the world on fire – perhaps literally.
Maybe it is too early,one extra year is more realistic.
It seems like most the American continent have gone collective bonkers. Maybe the rest of the world should impose a reverse Monroe Doctrine:
“Dont have anything to do with the savages in Americas.” Unfortunately the few picks of green hope, in Venezuela, Cuba and Nicaragua have all been almost eradicated. But hopefully Mordor will soon go tits up, and we will see what then happens,
It’s the “curse” of the Native Americans. From its inception the US are nothing more than conquered lands at their worst. While there are many conquered states and lands over the course of history, only few exist today which have experienced such genocidal approach as the the American continent (north&south). Even in the ravaged African continent the native descendants claim at least some power and life. But in the US?
This history of annihilating and opressing the original population is a collective nightmare of the highest order and will taint almost everything they do until they admit to their errors and start atoning and rapprochement with the remains of the native people.
I am not seeing that in any form.
Any news of a ‘coup’ against Putin this past week end?Rumors on social media.
I recently gave a short speech to a bar crowd of maybe 30 or 40 people about America’s imperialist adventures in Ukraine, Syria, Libya, Yemen, and the true nature of the people our country has supported in these countries.
At the end of the speech, someone asked me in a semi-depressed voice: “Is there any good news?”
Well, shit. That’s how this article makes me feel.
“If sanctions were put on Rosneft or Gazprom or Lukoil like what happened with Rusal, you would virtually shut down the energy systems of Europe, it is a bit of an extreme thing to happen,”
Via Trump’s Iran Nuke Deal fiasco, Europe has already established that it does not have to automatically follow Trump’s every sanction. Thus, should the US be foolish enough to try to levy such sanctions, they would find themselves all alone with Europe choosing to ignore Trump as opposed to freezing through a winter. Whatever hopes the Americans had of using sanctions to extort their way into selling LNG into Europe’s energy market are now gone with the wind.
“friends shaking hands
saying how do you do.
they’re only saying
I love you.”
What A Wonderful World – Jerry Garcia Band (w/Bruce Hornsby)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z_-fWBE9QUU
or, if you prefer the original ….
Oh, What a Wonderful World.
by Louis Armstrong
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2nGKqH26xlg
I’m glad the author mentioned Big ag from the west (U.S.) as a pillar in Brazil, because as I read this I started thinking about the Zika virus. Remember that BS about this virus causing shrunken heads in new born babies in Brazil? From all I’ve read this sad condition is actually caused by exposure to the vast quantities of agricultural chemicals being used there. There were a number of articles leading up to the Olympic games held there and how much risk athletes may face being in the waters along the coast, which are highly contaminated.
For years, Brazil has fallen under the control of giant conglomerates in agriculture etc., to the point where the country is like a giant petri dish being used as part of a chemical experiment. And all for money! We must never let morality intrude when money and power is the goal.
This is one of several reasons why Trump will not be the change he promised. If you put a moral imperative up against making money, he will choose money every time. Case in point: the murder of the journalist in the Saudi embassy in Istanbul. Initially, Trump threatened severe punishment if it was true. But then he said he won’t do anything to jeopardize the huge arms sales deal. And then there is the oil. So this will all be swept under the rug, though now Trump is in a bit of a trap because now he is being portrayed as being in cahoots with this butchery of the house of Saud. There is never any morality in any of this. At best, Trump is amoral.
I don’t know how Brazil is going to become a good partner in the Brics arrangement, as long as they are under these U.S. corporations, banking system and leadership which is western controlled. It would be the best choice for the people as Russia is determined to be the leading exporter of organic produce to the world. This is something Brazil and all of us need badly. Good, healthy, health promoting, non-toxic food.
Craig, if Brazilians and all of us need non-toxic non-GMO food so badly why dont we grow it like Russia does? There are plenty of so-called Organic farms in various countries, so what’s the problem with Brazil?