What happened and why IAF bombed near Palmyra/T4 airbase where there are almost no Hezbollah/zero RGC
News dispatch from the Kulak, citing veteran journalist Elijah J Magnier’s sources in Damascus
1. What happen between #Israel and #Syria today in #Palmyra?
#Israel tried 2break "redlines", attacking inside the "allowed zones & targets— Elijah J. Magnier (@EjmAlrai) March 17, 2017
‘As expected Netanyahu is unhappy he got nothin but nice words and a 500+ year old copy of Josephus Antiquities of the Jews from Putin (according to Unz writer Israel Adam Shamir) during his latest visit to Moscow.’
‘The old barely upgraded SAA S200s were fired as warning shots, one exploding over the Israeli Golan if not the northern Jordan Valley — apparently missing the IAF F15s. Next time if Tehran wants to send a message the Iranians just might blow one of those vaunted IAF F35s out of the sky with an S300. Then all hell could break loose from badly wounded DoD/Israeli MoD pride that the latest greatest stealth jet can be detected and engaged by 25 year old design S300s with a few S400 upgrades electronics thrown in.’
‘For now the Trump Admin and Kremlin both need an Israel-Hezbollah/Syria war distracting from finishing off the ISIS Caliphate in the Euphrates valley like holes in their heads (see MoA on the Kagan family’s too little too late demand for US occupation troops where SAA is threatening to link up from east of Palmyra to besieged Deir Ezzor).
‘The Israelis made a big mistake in having one of their top generals openly admit a few months ago he’d rather have ISIS on his border (with their virtually nil attacks on the IDF) than Iranians.’ – all by The Kulak
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There is an info virus that was recently released to discredit Russia’s weapons.
It’s started with alleged claims that Defensenews posted an article that Ru C300 couldn’t see the Israeli jets bombing Hezbollah.
The MOD issued a statement today, saying that “seeing” and “shooting down” are two big differences, as they say in Odessa.
Plus, they say that Russian air defense systems protect RUAF objects.
Now, just look at this con-artistry.
Israel asked Russia do not shoot their jets. Russians agreed. They even had joined military drills in December 2015.
Now, when they know that Russia is not going to shoot their jets, they claim that Russians are not shooting down their jets bombing Syrians, because they can’t and that Russia’s C300 or C400 are no good.
The level of depravity of their media is beyond belief!
This is to assume that their intelligence is not involved with this provocation.
However, Iranians say that this indeed was true, and Iranians never lie.
Syrian army: Israeli jet shot down, another hit
“The Syrian army says four Israeli jets breached the Arab country’s airspace on Friday morning, adding its air defense shot down one of the aircraft and hit another.
Israeli warplanes “penetrated our airspace at 2:40 a.m. (0040 GMT) via Lebanese territory and hit a military target on the way to Palmyra,” said an army statement carried by state news agency SANA.
“Our air defense engaged them and shot down one warplane over occupied territory, hit another one, and forced the rest to flee,” the army said, apparently referring to the Golan Heights. “
The Israeli media immediately came out denying the fact. But, whom would you believe, an official statement of the Syrian military or the lying liberal presstitutes?
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News agency RIA Novosti reports that the Israeli jet crashed on the territory of Jordan.
More on this from SouthFront
Syrian Military Claims 1 Israeli Warplane Shot Down after Strikes against Targets in Syria
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Interesting, that they only have images and videos of RUAf aircraft being shot down, but never Israeli’s.
It’s almost like those journos are being warned beforehand.
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In parallel with the info-virus targeting the Russian made weapons, the Western media released another info-virus or fake news about the US made Patriot “missile worth millions was used to shoot down a $200 drone from Amazon.”
All these right AFTER the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) themselves admitted that Patriot missiles are useless.
- The THAAD and Patriot missiles are worthless – according to the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) themselves; that’s why they tried to improve them with Iron Dome.
- Israeli Air Force Fails in 3 Attempts to Intercept Drone Flying from Syria
“The Successful Drone flight carried out by Hezbollah over the occupied Golan Heights, an important step at all levels, The Drone penetrated the skies of the Golan and all “Israeli” the modern defense systems (Three rockets, including rocket fired from «F-16» plane) failed to knock it down, which drew ridicule from «Israeli» commentators on «the Israeli air superiority.” Nidal Hamada wrote in Lebanese Al Binaa
While Israel bombed Syria’s south, the US bombed Aleppo killing 47 civilians and injuring a hundred people.
“A photo showing a fragment of an air-to-surface AGM-114 Hellfire missile has emerged. It leaves no chance for the US-led coalition to remain silent as usual and for diplomats to spout anti-Russian rhetoric,” Major-General Igor Konashenkov said Friday. “I think we should expect comments from the US partners anytime soon.”
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Israeli Ambassador to Russia Gary Koren was summoned to the Russia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs to explain their attack on Syria.
First, Sergei Ryabkov, the Deputy Foreign Minister of the Russian Federation, talked to him.
After that he faced Mikhail Bogdanov, the Russian President’s Special Representative for the Middle East and Africa, Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs.
There is always Sergey Shoygu, but hopefully Israelis will come to their senses before that.
Israelis have immediately started constructing the web of elaborate fakes.
After Israeli Attack in Syria: Russia Summons Israel’s Envoy for Clarifications
One of their inventions is that Israel attacks Syria to “prevent advanced arms from reaching Hezbollah.”
Just recently Lavrov has answered their concerns by offering them to “show any evidence.”
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PM Medvedev was absent from the Security Council meeting, Peskov says due to him being busy.
Most likely, because he refuses to give up his iPhone.
Песков объяснил отсутствие Медведева на совещании Путина с членами Совбеза РФ https://t.co/lqMmiHlwvR
— Интерфакс (@interfax_news) March 17, 2017
Scott Humor
Breaking News from Veritas
In development of my previous SITREP video of a racoon
“An angry Moscow petting zoo is suing an advertising agency for having rented a raccoon for a nude photoshoot. The zoo says the individual racoon was left traumatized and obsessed with women’s breasts, and that the reputation of all raccoons is at stake……”
There shouldn’t be any dispute. The Syrians or Russians can release video images of the downed plane. Even if it crashed in Jordan they should be able to get a video of it. Drones do that all the time. And RT by itself has a lot of them they use in filming.If they did shoot the plane down its not hard to prove.Hopefully they did. It might stop future attacks happening.But just claiming to isn’t good enough without showing proof.
It doesn’t matter if you or I believe. The Israelis know.
Uncle Bob 1
Will they release any video footage proving that the Patriot missile took down an Amazon drone?
Citing you…
“just claiming to isn’t good enough without showing proof.”
Who knows? But unlike in this case. Does it matter if they do or don’t?
Yep. Is a manner for de-escalate. If the story goes on, Syria-Russia would be forced to retaliate and al least worsen diplomatic-economic relations, and that is costly. Better don’t take the bait, and make asymetrical responses (S-300 for Syria, S-200 conected to Hymeimin AB?).
You don’t ‘prove’ anything by showing pictures.
Funny that gift of Josephus’ Antinquities from Putin to Netanyahu, a long running fraud written by a Jewish traitor who became publicist for Flavian Caesars.
The message is unmistakable:
We will cooperate on the manufacture of unreality to keep the peasants a-chattering while we establish the new order. You make up your fake news and we’ll make up ours.
C’mon folks, the m/o should be well understood by now, especially by dedicated observers. Just because you saw it on teevee does not mean it’s true. In fact because you saw it or read it or heard it it is guaranteed to be misdirection. It’s the truth they don’t tell you.
Josephus a Jewish traitor? A Jewish realist caught between a rock and a hard place perhaps.
What does a well mind think of the CIA Fascist takeover of The Ukraine through the actions of a paid, violent mob on the Maidan. Proabably what a well Jewish mind thought of the crazies in Judea who ended the nation in a Maccabbean ‘revolt’.
Let’s see.
After initially leading Jewish resistance to Roman forces in Galilee, Josephus surrendered to Vespasian and clever boy he was told him he had had a vision in which Vespasian would use gold looted from the Temple to eventually become Caesar, then promptly led him to the horde.
Vespasian was so grateful he adopted Josephus and put him to the task of writing the history of the war in Judea from a Roman perspective. Josephus lived out his days in splendour being granted residence at Vespasian’s former digs when he indeed used his military strength and newly aquired wealth to seize power.
Life of Brian – The People’s Front of Judea
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WboggjN_G-4
They call it TV ( and radio) “programming” for a reason.
Tell-lie-vision.
Also content in newspapers are called “stories”.
Journalists and editors don’t call their work “facties” . They themselves call their work “stories”.
Tells you all you need to know about the CIA-6-corporation controlled US media.
Spot on!
The Russians will be loathe to present any proof of a shot-down Israeli aircraft. This will be extremely negative for Russia’s image in the US, where Trump seems determined to pursue a policy of detente with Russia despite immense Deep State opposition. Russia does not care about Israel beyond Israel’s involvement in the Syrian War. Moreover, whether the Israeli F-16 was shot down or not is almost irrelevant at this point. Judging by the Israeli reaction, the Zio-State is extremely agitated, even panicked, which is a break with both protocol and tradition for them.
If Russia really wishes or to put it better, is forced, to do harm to Israel they can very easily do so, and Israel will be in a world of pain. But Russia has little interest in doing so, its priorities lie elsewhere where there are infinitely bigger fish to fry. The Zio-statelet backed as it is by the US is more of an annoyance but also at times a useful decoy as Israel’s interests compromise US policy in the Middle East presenting Russia with very useful and lucrative openings, such as with Iran, Iraq and Syria.
One more thing to note. Israel is nowhere near as important in Russia’s calculations as Turkey is. Turkey controls the straits that link the Black Sea to Med, a major leverage that Turkey has over Russia, while Israel has nothing to threaten Russia with. Additionally, Turkey is the base for the Rat Revolution that has forced Russia to intervene in Syria in the first place. Thirdly, Turkey is a major customer of Russian gas and grain. In short, Israel is a minor player vis-a-vis Russia’s designs in the Middle East while Turkey is a major one.
In my estimation, what Israel is trying to achieve with their latest antics, is to embarrass the Americans into charting a policy that is suited to Israeli interests. By ramping-up tensions with Russia as well as presenting the US as weak vis-a-vis Russia, they are trying to have the Americans collide with Russia and Israel’s work for it. Hence why they publish inanities such as this one: http://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/1.777920
more importantly: what was IDF bombing in Syria and why…
Next time shoot ALL of them down. Then the liberal presstitutes/IDF can say that there was absolutely no strike on that day, to not lose their pride.
Schrodinger’s Jet.
The jet is either shot down or not, but no one knows until they switch on the box and watch the news report…
It would be good news if the (reportedly) S-200 cost Israel some shekels, but hit or not it should give them pause in invading Syria’s air space again — but also bad news in that it encouraging Israel to buy more planes from the US and enrich the US MIC — but also good news in that what’s on the menu now is the fantastically expensive F-35 which isn’t very good for much anyway.
But then, the big question is which news box to open and which to believe…
Made me laugh, Blue. Thanks.
We need more bad days for the Empire.
Indeed, Happy St. Patricks day!
also, the fact that even if Israel does buy more F-35’s —-
The American taxpayer will foot the bill – Trump administration’s new foreign aid policy in fact –
Thanks for the update and info, I’ll paraphrase a bit from my comment on the South Front Palmyra sit-rep:
This smells very fishy. Previous attacks by Israel have been in Damascus or in the mountainous Syrian/Lebanese border area. Both attacks were claimed to have targeted Hizbullah itself or their supply lines and/or depots. That this attack happened on the front line with Isis is a major escalation. Israel’s (dubious but MSN-believable) assertion to be attacking Hizbullah simply has no traction in Palmyra/Tadmour; there are no supply lines coming from Isis territory nor depots in the area, the attack therefore was in full support of Isis (a la the US raid on Deir Ez-Zor).
Whether or not a jet was shot down, in my opinion, is still up in the air. Israel will always deny losses, however Syrian officials often exaggerate their successes. Here I agree with Uncle Bob above, to paraphrase, ‘pics or it didn’t happen’.
In my mind, this leaves three scenarios: 1) the attack had the behind-the-scenes green light from Russia, 2) Russia was unaware ahead of time but didn’t want to risk the fallout from downing the jets with the S-400, or 3) Russia fired the S-400s but to no effect.
I highly doubt it was 3), my guess would be a mix of 1) and 2). If I am correct, this raises some serious questions, mainly to what extent will Russia allow Israel to attack not only a de facto ally in Hizbullah but an out-and-out ally in Syria in their fight against Isis? I doubt a one-off raid by four F16s or 15s would have any significant battlefield impact, so if this is a ‘message’, how was it received in Moscow and what will be the response? Personally, I think a non-response would be the worst option as it paints Russia in an untrustworthy light in the eyes of their allies Syria, Iran, and Hizbullah. At the end of the day, Syria still lacks manpower and the only entity with fighters to spare is Iran. How willing will Tehran be to up the ante if it knows Moscow will turn a blind eye to Israel in bombing their troops/allies on the battlefield? A response is now needed, and I don’t believe back-channels will suffice.
You begin with Russia is at fault. And you conclude that Russia must fight everyone.
Syria is Syrian. Syria is allied with Iran. Those two have every reason to “fight” any invaders.
Russia is there to preserve Syria and protect its own regional economic interests.
Your theories are flawed.
Russia doesn’t green light Israeli moves.
Israel risked flying over Syria and got chased, if not damaged.
They clearly will be shot down next time.
They were probably on an EW scavenger flight, gathering info from the systems on the ground. They haven’t been able to defeat S 300 upgrades much less S 400 electronics. They may be concerned whether S 300s are functional in Syria.
Here’s what the Syrians have:
Inventory
Soviet Union 320 Lavochkin CP-75 Dvina/S-75M Volga (SA-2) launchers – under upgrade
Soviet Union 148 Pechora +12 2M Isayev S-125 Neva/S-125M Pechora (SA-3) launchers – under upgrade
Soviet Union 48 S-200 Angara (SA-5) launchers
Soviet Union 200 2K12 Kub (SA-6) launchers
Soviet Union 60 9K33 Osa (SA-8) launchers
Soviet Union 20 9K31 Strela-1 (SA-9) launchers
Soviet Union 35 9K35 Strela-10 (SA-13) launchers
Soviet Union 20+8 9K37 Buk М1-2+Buk М2 (SA-11) launchers
Soviet Union 6 9M311-1M Tunguska (SA-19) launchers
Russia 50 Pantsir-S1 (SA-22) launchers
Russia + S-300 (missile) (SA-10) launchers – Delivered but not completed. Status unclear.
The Israelis are toying with the idea of a war in Lebanon. Factor that with anything the Israelis do in Syria. Golan and Lebanon. Those are their primary concerns.
And remember that many in IDF and Mossad want a change in Israeli policy, so Bibi wants to force more war. He’s like McCain. They can’t get enough war.
The supremacy of their psychopathic ideas requires war to justify their existence.
Unless there is a large ongoing war, they are unstable. Psychotic syndrome.
Thanks for the info. I must admit my understanding of the coverage of the air systems and DE ranges was way over-simplified. Things make more sense now.
I wasn’t saying Russia must start WWIII as a response, so much as saying a public rebuke of the attack would soothe some minds.
Don’t listen to him Don. He is here to misedirect you. You are on the right track.
All sides are working together to cull the jihadi herd. The inconsistencies and contradictions which you highlight are explained by this frame. Syria too has an interest in killing off these captagon soaked jihadi mercenaries, before victory can be declared and life can return to normal. Israel would not mind prolonging this war for a decade or more. Unfortunately, the weak and cooperative Russian position, working with their Western ‘partners,’ does not bode well for ending this war anytime soon.
Oded Yinon remains the objective, with western Syria and Lebanon likely reunited in the final settlement, which is still years ahead. By then most of us obsevers will be too tired to care, and the survivors in Grand Liban will be grateful for an end to the war.
Think not in years or decades but in centuries and millenia. This is how the Zionist Priesthood perceives and manages our reality. They will not be put off of their goals.
.
yeah there are other scenarios – like Russian intelligence working with Iran intel…why are you so worried when the (damn) plane got shot out of the sky –
Once its gone, what does it matter that the cow ate it ?
Sufi philosophy at its best
There is also the possibility the US/Israelis have realized the situation in Syria is lost for them, and are trying destroy evidence and/or kill “moderate rebels” which would (again) show just how directly involved the US/Israel/Saudis are in backing “ISIS” (and whatever other name they dreamed up this week…) I’d bet those “moderate rebels” will not be happy that the US/Israel/Saudis hung them out to dry as dupes, so the SAA/Russians/Hezbolla can steadily mop them up. (Could this be why ISIS “is collapsing”?) Killing the “rebels” off is preferable to having them heading to Israel for revenge. There may be method in the apparent Syria/Russia madness of allowing “rebels” to evacuate, creates a pool of a whole lot of “rebels” unhappy at the US/Israel. Note the evacuation conditions specified not fighting against Syria…
The Israelis really care about holding the Golan Heights, so expect all manner of nastiness as Syria/Russia/Hezbolla eventually turn their attention there.
I love Saker and like you, Scott, so much!
Somebuddha, I love you too, buddy.
This was Israeli overreach. And they got burnt.
4 F-16s. No countermeasures?
Against decades old technology.
Maybe they wanted a sacrifice so they can put their new alliance with the Arabs into action.
Syrian war window is closing. The Israelis need Trump to go all in or Russia and diplomacy will take this into political resolution.
An incident between Syria (Iranians) and Israel’s IDF would be serious blood lost. And you know how that is the currency of the warmonger sector in Tel Aviv. A drop of Israeli blood is worth an ocean of other people’s blood to those who love war. Not all Israelis want more war. But Bibi needs to distract from his scandals and loss of regional influence. He’s on his back foot and risking IDF sons and fathers. Not very wise.
So, Bibi didn’t like the Moscow results, there are some in the IDF who want to push Trump against Iran and Hezbollah, and everyone in the West wants Assad out and Syria broken up.
Several strong causes of the Israeli mission in these suppositions.
And now, Syria is the winner of the duel in the Palmyra skies.
Does anyone dare test the Russian S-400s?
Not with a manned plane.
To fly a warplane over Syria (except for the far east border area with Iraq which has no coverage from the system in Latakia) you had better get a “hall pass” from principal Putin.
The US military will try to create “safe zones” and bases in the East when the “shooting” stops. It will be a test of wills between Trump and Putin.
Kill all those bastards there. Shoot them down. And never apologize anything. Play it hard, dirty and be tough.
“PM Medvedev was absent from the Security Council meeting,”
Scott, why do you think Medvedev became PM again? I know there was talk of a deal in place before, with Putin representing the military, FSB, etc. and Medvedev representing the financial side. Is that still in place? Or is this some judo strategy in motion?
S113
iPhonchik himself is not a problem, but the deep state is.
“…interesting, that they only have images and videos of RUAf aircraft being shot down, but never Israeli’s.
It’s almost like those journos are being warned beforehand…” Scott’s quote -.
Do you mean Southfront is being warned ? I guess you are probably meaning Israeli news agency
Ann,
It was the Turkish journalists and someone from the Anna-news who “just happened” to be in Latakia mountains to take perfect videos and images of the Sukhoi Su-24 to be shot down.
Then they started signaling someone in the woods, showing where the pilots parachuted.
They admitted that much!
Then a search-and-rescue team was attacked and a Marine was killed.
if those journos are that lucky, why wouldn’t they buy a Powerball lottery ticket?
Southfront has nothing to do with all this. They report news, they don’t try to make them.
okay, sorry I misunderstood, actually I did figure it out by myself in a second read….is Anna News also Israel’s puppets ? Yeah, I was wondering if anyone got killed – the marine ? What country from ?
I wish Israel and Iran would go at it for a couple of days, but I suppose assholes worldwide would step in.
PM Medvedev was absent from the Security Council meeting, Peskov says due to him being busy.
Most likely, because he refuses to give up his iPhone.
Priceless!!!
This might explain why Medvedev was “busy” …
Liberal Democrats walk out of Duma session after corruption row with United Russia.
https://www.rt.com/politics/380796-liberal-democrats-walk-out-of
(Would keep the PMs of most countries “busy”! )
…Zhirinovsky replied by stating that half of United Russia MPs had no right to be in the State Duma hall and ordered that his party members walk out from the session in protest.
State Duma Speaker Vyacheslav Volodin then asked the lawmakers to “calm down their emotions,” noting that to him the events looked a lot like a road rage.
This was not the first open standoff between nationalist and populist LDPR and centrist-conservative United Russia. In September 2015, a representative of United Russia’s ally group – the United Popular Front – asked state prosecutors to discipline Zhirinovsky who had called United Russia MPs thieves and accused them of fomenting anti-government riots. At the time, all Liberal Democratic Party members also left the State Duma session hall in protest of the alleged violations during the elections in Amur Region in the Russian Far East.
Maybe it was just the way RT reported that story, but… no one screams “fake news!”?? Instead complaints are heard that Zhirinovsky was too mean in the way he verbally confronted the corruption (which is targeting his party)?
Shot down or not is irrelevant. What is important is the fact they have been shoot at.
This was a warning what to expect next time and think twice before conducting airstrikes in Syria. And I am quite sure they will do exactly that.
This is my own “one cent”
I think Israel is practicing what I call DPS (Deep Penetration Strikes) in Syria which they may use against their bigger foe (Most likely Iran). From my own point of view I think what Israel is doing is what any calculative person would attempt against an Opponent. No real Strategist would sit still and watch a rival wax stronger in different ramifications, they would take steps to scuttle that progress if they can achieve theirs. Now for Russia’s presence, They know Russia is there and is the Sheriff in Town. What they don’t know is what Russia’s limit is for them. Most peeps think Israel would think twice after Syria’s response, I don’t think so. They would keep prodding until Russia says Stop. After which from the Israel I know Russia would still have to show they mean Stop by taking a decisive action against Israel and of course Putin has vast options to choose from.
From an avid reader
There are reports that USA is presently bombing Syrian infrastructure: water plants, damns, bridges,etc. Russia could prevent these actions but has chosen not to.
They’ve been doing it for a last 3 years, it has not just started now. Same tactics they used when bombing Yugoslavia, Iraq. It is not just about destroying military targets but civilian infrastructure as well. Why? In order to firstly destroy economy, infrastructure and than take full control and make profits by borrowing money for rebuilding those countries, through IMF and other financial institutions under their control. They have probably miscalculated or didnt expect Russia to interfere in Syria though. Money for rebuilding Syria after war will come from China, Russia, Iran. Maybe they are aware of that and just want to make it harder for those countries to rebuild Syria.
Same tactic is in use in Ukraine by Ukro nazis and obviously controlled and managed by Washington. Ukrops are well aware that Donetsk and Lugansk are not coming back to Ukraine and the only thing they can do is to destroy everything they can to make it harder for Russia to rebuild Donbass later on.
Exactly so. Familiar to those in USA as “the Urban Renewal Racket.” Pioneered by Sherman’s infamous “March to the Sea” in Georgia (USA) during the War Between the States.
Relevant Quotation : “Wars are fought TO CREATE CONDITIONS.”
I don’t know what Russia could do exactly to stop this, but the US is very busy bombing things.
If Syria shot down some (invading) US planes it wouldn’t bother me at all.
https://www.rt.com/news/381205-syria-mosque-strike-pentagon/
Pentagon’s claim Syria mosque untouched by US airstrike challenged by devastation footage
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mPEyTPjoFow
At least 50 killed in Aleppo mosque strike, US admit targeting building nearby
Trump better his act together and stop US terrorism or he’s going to have huge problems.
The israeli attack may have had something to do with distracting attention away from what the americans are doing. It may be a provocation intended to harm the Astana negotiations. It may have been in direct support of a particular daesh grouping, or a group of their us-nato controllers. It may have been to test air defense capabilities. It may have been intended as a “fu” by israel to Russia in response israel not getting their way in netanyahoo’s recent Moscow trip. It could be all of the above.
I believe this was the first time the israelis actually flew into Syrian airspace, rather than the flying near the border and launching stand off missiles they’ve done in the past. This takes the israeli aggression to a higher level, and mean israel is planning to get more directly involved.
One thing is certain, the americans were notified before, and probably aided in the planning of the attack.
yes that would explain the failure…did the pilot get killed ?
The only way to stop the US attacking nations is to jointly for Russia and China to tell them to stop. Obviously, US is challenging Russia to dare them. The involvement of China (not war) but to,be,by the side of Russia if true, is more than needed now. The U.S will continue the end goal, partitioning Syria slowly but surely. Iran must be involved too in preventing this. The US/Israel are doing what they want to do and nothing can stop them unless there is challenge from Russia, China and Iran and even other nations with one voice.
The rigidity of Assad also costed many lives and must take responsibility. Assad could have replaced another president (pro Syria)not those fake opposition who are bought and paid for by outside. This could have shut the West up for a while wanting to remove Assad because they have no reason to complain, although their end game is partitioning Syria whether Assad is there or not.
Release any idea that had Assard “gone” as the Demons (Obama/Cameron/Sarkozy/aussie-Abbott) were howling, that the situation in Syria would have been any different.
Exhibit A: Ukraine. Yanukovych “went”, but some now blame him for not “staying”!!!!
Remember Vicious “F* the EU” Nuland plotting: “Yats is the guy”
Well despite being their puppet, he did not stay in favour long:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-04-11/ukraine-prime-minister-yatsenyuk-resigns/7314798
Ukraine Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk resigns over ‘artificially created political crisis’
Posted 11 Apr 2016
Ukraine PM Yatsenyuk has announced his resignation in the wake of a months-long political crisis that paralysed the government and stopped the release of vital Western aid.
Key points:
His resignation comes weeks after surviving a non-confidence vote
“Having done everything to ensure stability and make a smooth transition of power possible, I decided to step down from the post of Prime Minister of Ukraine,” the pro-Western leader said in a television address.
“The political crisis in the country was created artificially. The desire to change one person blinded politicians and paralysed their political will for real change,” he said.
And why was “Yats the guy”?: because the Demons had caused the legitimately elected president Yanukovych to flee for his life, (and was being hunted across his country by assassins, before being extracted from his country by RF special forces acting on Putin’s authority) *
A Year After Maidan: Why Did Viktor Yanukovych Flee After Signing the Agreement With the Opposition?
On February 22, 2014, Ukraine’s then president Viktor Yanukovych surprised the world by fleeing Kyiv, just after an agreement had been reached with the country’s opposition to put an end to several months of political crisis and protest.
http://carnegieendowment.org/2015/02/25/year-after-maidan-why-did-viktor-yanukovych-flee-after-signing-agreement-with-opposition
*
In doco: “Crimea, long way home,” Putin gives a dramatic account of the RF special forces trying to locate Yankuovych, who they knew was heading towards an armed ambush, where, Putin says, “there would be no discussions”.
Exactly Anton….Syria is getting pummeled …while powers just watch.
Syria’s shortage of standing army could be supported by Iran and Russia.
Palmyra probably would not have fallen again. …Deir Ezzor endless Seige ended.
Syria would have presence on the Euphrates. ….instead of it being ISUS hi way.
Russia has demonstrated many weapons in Syria, …some are possible Foreign export.
The conflict gives Russia military duty cycle testing of various systems.
Russia is paying into support of Syria,…while obtaining the above benefits.
The US partner nonsense is over the top….when as you point out Anton,…US,Nato, Turkey
And Israhell….pummel the hell out of Syria daily.
I was impressed when Russia destroyed 100s of ISUS tanker trucks going to the Mad Caliph.
Yet now….that may have been an insider financial tussel between Russian Oligarchs and Mid east
Monied play.
Erdogan continued to support ISUS from Turkey and bomb Syria in their support….Putin’s
Tanker blitz didn’t turn Erdogan….who probably still is supporting the Assad must go game,
Except on the redux
If Syria did not down 2 IAF jets (separate incidents )….Thier airdefence only has 1 Turk F4 Reece,
And a few drones to show….for 6 years.
Not very good…in fact. ..it invites question as to Syrian command and operators ability.
Israel has pasted Syria with stand off strike weapons,
Syria has numerous air defence systems which are ranged in and capable of knocking cruise
Missiles down….yet news after news with burning fires in Syria is what we find. http://spioenkop.blogspot.ca/2016/08/photo-report-syrian-arab-air-defence.html
A BUK M2E system has range of 20+ miles and 72,000 ft ….This system can give Israel worries
If a few are parked on Syria Golan or near Lebanon border.
Hezbollah could surely use a few : )
I think so too. Usually when US starts some kind of mild provocation, it is to see how the opposite side reacts, its strength, and its military capabilities including what kind of weapons the other side uses. This gives the US in the way it will attack. US/Israel, same thing.
The other reason for the attack could be to give reasons for US to declare direct war against Syria because of its attack against Israel. The only way US/Israel could declare war against Syria directly is by provoking it (like the US did against Japan, provocation>reaction from the other side>declaring direct war. This seems their method). They need to have reason to attack and thus it is only by provoking the opposite side.
I’ve read on Sputnik News that a Zionist plane was in fact blown out of the sky by a Syrian S-200. But, of course, Israel is going to deny it. Just like they denied the previous plane that they lost last December. Admitting losses like those would be the beginning of the end for “the dream” of Greater Israel, which already took a beating on the ground in Lebanon in 2006 and in Gaza in 2014.
Russia should respond by setting up a base with S-400s near Damascus, which would then seal off Syrian airspace to Israel. If old S-200s can shoot down their planes, they will not dare tempt fate by flying in range of S-400s. Well, unless they want to sacrifice a few pilots so they can go crying to Uncle Sam for more handouts…
Nice job on the sitrep, Scott.
Foreign Ministry: Israeli aggression against Syria is flagrant defiance of Syrian sovereignty and international legitimacy
http://sana.sy/en/?p=102361
Syria affirmed that the Israeli aggression that took place on Friday, which is a violation of international law, the UN Charter, and the sovereignty and the sanctity of Syrian territory, was not the first of its kind but is a part of a long series of attacks carried out by Israel to support its agents in the terrorist war on Syria.
In two letters sent by the Foreign and Expatriates Ministry to the UN Secretary General and the President of Security Council, the Ministry said that in flagrant defiance of the international legitimacy and UN resolutions and the sovereignty and the inviolability of the Syrian territory, four Israeli warplanes violated the Syrian airspace in al-Breij area through the Lebanese territories at 2:40 am and targeted a military site in the eastern countryside of Homs province.
“As part of its right to defend the sanctity of its territory, the Syrian air defense responded to this aggression and shot down one of the planes while the rest of them were forced to flee,” the Ministry added.
The Ministry went on to say that the Syrian Arab Republic confirms that all Israeli security, military, and political resources have been harnessed directly and indirectly in order to enable terrorists to weaken Syria and to prolong the terrorist war as much as possible.
“The Israeli aggression this morning comes as a new Israeli attempt to boost the collapsed morale of terrorist groups after they were defeated recently by the Syrian Arab Army and its allies in many areas,” the Ministry said in the letters.
The Ministry added that Syria confirms that all the pretexts and allegations made by Israel to justify the launching of such attacks are cheap diversionary attempts that have been used every time Israel fails to justify the continuation of its illegal occupation of the Syrian Golan, the Palestinian territory, and the rest of the occupied territories in southern Lebanon.
“Syria calls on the UN Secretary General and the President of the UNSC to condemn this blatant Israeli aggression, to force Israel to stop supporting terrorism in Syria, to implement all UNSC resolutions on counter-terrorism, including resolution No. 2253, to withdraw from the whole occupied Syrian Golan to the line of June 4th, 1967, and to implement resolution No. 497 for 1981.
The Ministry concluded its letters by affirming that the Israeli aggressions on Syria not only threaten peace and security in the region, but also threaten security and stability in all parts of the world.”
The Syrian government knows the score.
“An interesting scoop from Al Masdar News: Military sources say that Russian advisors embedded with the Syrian Army were operating “only a few kilometers” away from one of the Israeli airstrikes on Friday morning in western Palmyra.
According to the report, the Syrians also “informed” the Russians before launching several S-200 missiles at the Israeli fighter jets:
The Syrian Air Defense informed their Russian advisers regarding their intentions to retaliate against the Israeli warplanes that attacked their positions near Palmyra (Tadmur), a military source informed Al-Masdar on Monday.
Russian Marines advising the Syrian Arab Army in western Palmyra were only a few kilometers away from one of the sites the Israeli warplanes attacked on Friday morning.”
etc
http://russia-insider.com/en/report-russian-military-advisors-were-operating-area-targeted-israeli-airstrikes/ri19277
reason why Russia bawled out Israel……..
Israel continues to try to get a war between the US/NATO and Syria going. They’ve been doing this all along since the Syria crisis started. This was the GOAL of the Syria civil war – to get the US and NATO to do to Syria what it did to Libya.
Israel and Turkey fired into Syria numerous times to try to get Syria to fire back – but the SAA never took the bait.
Then Obama set up the Ghouta chemical weapons false-flag attack and was within hours of attacking Syria when Putin blew that plan out of the water by getting Syria to get rid of its chemical weapons.
Nonetheless the US continued to make “chemical weapons use” as an excuse for threats against Syria. Meanwhile, Israel repeatedly flew into Syrian territory and attacked Hizballah and Syrian targets. Again, Syria refused to fight back, knowing the goal was to start a war with Israel which would lead to US and NATO intervention.
Then Russia entered the war in fall, 2015. That put paid to that plan.
Now Israel continues to try to find some way to escalate tensions between Syria and Israel and get Syria blamed for some sort of “aggression” against Israel in order to convince Trump to attack Syria.
Syria probably responded this time with their anti-aircraft systems because they knew Russia would have their diplomatic – and potentially military – back.
All of this is just setting up the pre-conditions for a war with Iran, which are 1) degrade Syria’s military, and then 2) degrade Hizballah’s ability to be an effective actor in an Iran war.
The fact that Israel continues to launch attacks into Syria and threaten a war with Lebanon clearly shows they have not abandoned their plans, regardless of the difficulty of actually implementing them.
Once Syria, Iran, Russia and Hizballah end the Syrian civil war, Israel will have to make a decision whether to unilaterally attack Syria and Lebanon – or give up their plans for an Iran war.
The question remains whether the US military-industrial complex and the neocons can convince or bully Trump into starting an Iran war.
Richard!
Have you seen Thucydides? I went to Syrian Perspective and saw he was gone.
As in my comment above, this war has no end. It will continue indefinitely. Greater Israel is still a go. Use your considerable talents and apply this frame. Israel will stir the pot every now and then but it really makes no difference. Unless Russia is willing to engage in direct confrontation with the US, NATO and/or Zio-Leviathan, the war in Syria can not be brought to an end.
Nor, I suppose, would it be wise if they did.
But that doesn’t mean we should continue playing along with the unreality game. It would be good if we showed the Zionist Priesthood we saw them for what they are. They see us quite well but man do they ever get scared when they see us looking back, through what they thought was a one way mirror.
What would the writer of Pericles funeral oration make of it my friend? If he could see how the Greeks eventually destroyed themselves, despite all the warnings from poets, sages and oracles, would he have stopped blowing all that hot air about democracy or justice and freedom?
Less-Than-Friendly Fire: US Conducts Too Many ‘Mistaken’ Airstrikes in Syria
https://sputniknews.com/world/201703181051724303-syria-united-states-air-strikes-civilians/
“These mistaken air strikes take place very often. Of course, this is a war and this is a battlefield, where anything can happen. But the frequency of such ‘mistakes’ that lead to dozens of deaths among civilians and Syrian Army soldiers and their allies, is very annoying both to me and other people,” he said.
“It seems to me that no one can guarantee that this will not happen again. I suspect that such ‘mistakes’ will occur regularly,” according to Juma.
He also noted that the mainstream media as a rule prefers to shift the blame for similar air strikes to Russia and the Syrian Army, in an apparent bid to demonize the political image of Moscow and Damascus.
“[When such incidents occur] the Western media quickly attacks Russia and they don’t care about the fact that half an hour after an incident, there will be thousands of confirmations that it was the US or the terrorists who did it. The main thing is that the ‘demonic’ background [the scapegoating of Russia and the Syrian Army] has been established. Regrettably, this is how mainstream media currently works,” Juma said.”
Also:
Top 3 Most Notorious MSM Fake News Tactics From the Syrian War
https://sputniknews.com/politics/201703181051722298-fake-news-stories-syria-compilation/
“With the Russian military actively fighting to help free Syria from terrorism, and simultaneously sending dozens of tons of aid, providing medical assistance and sappers to demine liberated cities, Konashenkov couldn’t hide his indignation about the defamatory content of many media reports. These, he said are equivalent “to a garbage pile of fakes and bare-faced lies, for which colossal budgets have been spent.”
‘Russian Madmen Deliberately Target Schools and Hospitals’
When the Western media referred to the London Observatory for Human Rights in Syria, a normal human causes only laughter pic.twitter.com/4tVv0ZVxtU
— ivan poddubniy (@solnzedar) December 12, 2016
Syrian Observatory of Human Rights is run by one man. Based in the UK. He was jailed 3 times while in Syria and once after leaving.
— Taz (@TazMort) December 19, 2016
The Award for Best Actor Goes to…
Ironically, the White Helmets even won the Oscar for best short documentary film last month. But as the mounting evidence against them suggests, the award they really deserved was for best fiction screenplay.
Social media and independent journalists discovered the group’s ties to jihadists, their mysterious connections to British intelligence, and gathered photos of them posing with Nusra Front fighters, and toting automatic weapons to boot, indicating that many seemed to serve as fighters by day, PR stuntmen by night.
Child Abuse
The messages were written in excellent English, with Bana publishing up to 120 messages a day from a part of the city known not to have access to electricity. In early 2017, Bana and her family moved to Turkey, where she met with President Recep Tayyip.
Reporters soon began discovering holes in Bana’s story, finding out that the little girl couldn’t speak English. That in turn has led to concerns that she may have been manipulated, with others calling her use for propaganda purposes blatant child abuse. Others pointed out that her father was a member of the ‘Al Safwah Battalions’, an Islamist group supported by Ankara. Unfortunately, by the time the discoveries were made, the Aleppo campaign was over and the media turned its attention elsewhere.
Evidence of this disgusting tactic was also demonstrated with Omran Daqneesh, the little Aleppo boy in an ambulance whose shocked and bloodied image went viral around the world. Rights activists had said that the boy had been the victim of a Russian airstrike one fateful August evening. President Bashar Assad angered reporters when he said that the image was a fake. But social media again soon discovered that the president was right all along.
Ultimately, the pattern emerging from all these accusations, whether from Coventry-based rights groups, jihadist-affiliated ‘rescue workers’, or the accounts of certain social media celebrities, is as follows: the claim is made, the MSM takes the story and runs with it, Damascus and/or Russia disprove the allegations, the MSM forgets the story and moves on to something new. Unfortunately, as is often the case, the refutation often gets much less attention than the initial accusation. And that, most likely, is what those waging this information war against Syria and Russia seem to be counting on.”
Of course that is what the israelis and their colonials are counting on. It is their standard propaganda routine. They honed this sort of fakery in the 2008 5 Day War. The “oscar for al qaida” also shows how deeply institutionally involved the zionist Jewish media mafia is in this disgusting psywar.
RT also has a couple articles up about the propaganda machine worth reading.
Aleppo mosque airstrike controversy: ‘US only considers sources credible when it suits them’
https://www.rt.com/op-edge/381238-syria-us-mosque-strike-controversy/
“Conflicting reports on an alleged airstrike on an Aleppo mosque won’t change the Pentagon’s attitude towards the various shady “activist” groups they cite as “reliable” sources when it suits them, says retired US AF Lieutenant Colonel Karen Kwiatkowski.”
Russia accused of US strike in Syria: ‘80 percent of MSM stories on Mideast wars is fake news’
https://www.rt.com/op-edge/381146-syria-aleppo-mosque-airstrike-us/
“The US claimed it didn’t target the mosque but was targeting a site 15 meters away.
Meanwhile, multiple media outlets accused Russia. While some of them blamed Moscow right in the headline, others were more careful deciding to remind readers about accusations of Syrian and Russian strikes from the past, under a entirely different subtitle “US air raids.”
And some of the news outlets haven’t fixed the claims even after Centcom’s statement.
RT asked analysts what they make of such media coverage.”
Basically, the zionazis and their colonials simply keep piling on the bs, relying upon their audiences having the memory span of a house fly. That short attention span being something the zionazis, along with the capitalist right, socially engineered in their people.
There are ‘protests’ going on in Belarus. Judging by the articles in RFE it is clear that state department is behind it. However there is almost nil coverage in western MSM. Saker could you please shed some light.
It’s unimportant…
And discussion frozen by the fevered devotions that people have to their a-priori stories (delusions). Such as “jewish conspiracies”…and silly conflation between zionist nazis and orthodox Jewish behaviors. Beside, it too late for dialogue, even if possible, to affect the outcome.
What is important is that the shoe is about to drop on the end of a 500 year + period. Shoe? War between the old and the new over the matter of moral compass and canon. Probably days away…
While the outcome is decided, it is unknowable at this time – because no op-plan survives first contact.
So, I shall, I expect, read Saker, but consider it a waste of time to write anything further – since story overpowers logic and worthwhile dialogue.
Bye! Have nice war, friends.
fevered devotions that people have to their a-priori stories (delusions). Such as “jewish conspiracies”…and silly conflation between zionist nazis and orthodox Jewish behaviors.
As if the behaviors that got them expelled from so many countries over many centuries were other than the behaviors of orthodox Judahists . . . (?)
As if the Talmud doesn’t teach that it is their right to cheat and rob outsiders with impunity . . . (?) That in the coming age they will rule the world, unopposed . . . (?) That only Talmud-following Judahists are fully hunan beings . . . (?)
The tree is known by its fruit.
I expect I could find all of that in Christian doctrine somewhere, and in Islam and other religions as well — it doesn’t mean everyone interprets it as such or follows it. Besides, the situations leading to various behaviors is largely social, political, economic, etc., and get rather complicated with many extenuating circumstances. And it isn’t just religion that gets tribal, or pushes groups into situational behavior either.
I don’t remember where or from who I heard the other day, and have not verified it, but the story was the Jews got the banking business and control of money because they could not own land and had little political power so the ruler let them do it because they would not be able to take over as the nobility could. I have also heard in the past that the Chrisitans didn’t wnat it because they leery of violating the religious usury prohibitions. I suppose there are sorts of explanations for this and that, and it’s difficult to verify any of them, much less get general agreement on them.
It’s like the religious excuses for the terrorists while it’s not rooted in religion but in land, power, money, political manipulation, and so forth, as usual. We could go around endlessly trying to sort it all out, but most (not all) of it would not help in dealing with the problems, and much of thinking about why who is doing what can make problems even worse, and feed the manipulations by the oligarchy. Notice how often political ambition and greed turns into religious wares though history, and how people who are well fed and contented seldom become fanatical about politics, religion, or anything else.
It wouldn’t matter matter to me why the raccoon broke into the kitchen, or if it was a mask and a yarmulke it was wearing, or if it though it was fulfilling its manifest destiny, but rather getting rid of the beast.
According to one analyst on Israeli media, the successful detection by Syria of invading IAF warplanes is a ‘ game-changer’:
http://english.almanar.com.lb/215037
Lieberman has threatened to destroy Syrian air-defence system, so looks like the analyst is right…
If Israel could destroy Syria’s air defences, it would do so.
It can’t, so it yaps about it instead.
Lieberman is a thug. He was a bouncer at bars as a young man.
E
From the article link:
“The Israeli analyst said that the exceptional event in Thursday’s clash was that the Syrian radars discovered the Israeli jets as they were flying over the Syrian airspace”
Actually, amir is full of govno here. It is no real challenge for Syria to detect israeli aircraft when they fly across Syria. It was that the buggered israeli cowards this time actually flew across Syria that makes the incident exceptional. Before they launched stand off missiles or attack something very close to Syria’s border. In previous attacks, the israelis used that tactic to avoid being attacked in response. This time it appears they wanted to initiate a response.
The freak lieberman may be just bloviatig, as is his habit, or this could be the beginning of a zionazi escalation of their provocations to provide their american/nato quislings an excuse to attack Syria openly.
Escalation Looming? Israel to Crush Syrian Air Defense if Jets Targeted Again
https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/201703191051746758-israel-syria-strikes/
Perhaps the zionazis are planning a massive strike, or will try and take out Assad and this last air attack was their opening shot? One thing certain, as long as the zionazis back is protected by their us quislings, they are not going to give up their war against Syria.
If they take out Assad, the 50 Iskander/Tochka placed officially under Syrian control will rain down on Israel’s cities.
https://www.rt.com/news/381303-israel-threatens-syria-defense/
Israeli minister threatens to destroy Syrian air defenses
Published time: 19 Mar, 2017 13:39
The Israeli defense minister threatened to destroy Syrian air defenses after they shot at Israeli warplanes, which violated Syrian airspace and bombed targets on Syrian soil.
“Next time, if the Syrian aerial defense apparatus acts against our planes, we will destroy it,” Avigdor Lieberman told Israeli Public Radio on Sunday. “We won’t hesitate. Israel’s security is above everything else; there will be no compromise.”
[…]
Israel is fighting for the terrorists and against Syria more overtly lately — I’ll guess at the behest of the US, who is sending more troops and waging more attacks against Syria.
http://www.fort-russ.com/2017/03/israeli-drone-kills-member-of-syrian-ndf.html
Israeli Drone Kills a Member of Syrian NDF
March 19th, 2017 – Fort Russ News –
– Al Mayadeen – – translated by Samer Hussein –
One member of the Syrian National Defense Forces (NDF), a paramilitary organisation, fighting alongside the Syrian army, was killed during an Israeli drone raid on Khan Arnaba, a town in the Syria’s Quneitra province, located right next to the Golan Heights.
According to the announcement made on the official NDF Facebook site, Mr. Yasser Hussein Seyyed was martyred after an unnamed Israeli drone targeted his car in Khan Arnaba, while taking the road to Damascus. The news was also picked up by the Israeli press.
[…]
Latest: Israeli drone has been used to murder Syrian air- defence officer at Quinetra ( though his status is not confirmed):
http://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/1.778218
So the dust has settled a little since the Israeli raid three days ago…
Just reviewed a good piece by A. Mercouris on the subject…
I have to disagree with his opinion that it is ‘unlikely’ the Israeli F-16 was brought down…
Here’s why…we now know that the Israeli jets did not penetrate very deeply into Syrian airspace…perhaps a few kilometers…they launched standoff missiles at the Tiyas airbase [T4]…then quickly turned back home…
The Syrian SAMs were launched after the jets had already crossed back in…it is certainly not unlikely that a Syrian S-200 would have scored a hit…especially from behind…
The fact that there are no pictures does not prove it did not happen…a SAM hit is most likely to take out the engine…the F-16 being a single-engine plane that means it has to get down quickly…ie a crash landing at a convenient strip…or the pilot bails…
In any case…the crippled plane can certainly glide a distance of a few dozen kilometers…[F-16 drivers claim the plane has a glide ratio of 6…which means that if it’s flying at a height of 5 km [5,000 m or 16,000 ft] it can glide for 30 km…
The Israeli jets would likely have been flying higher than 5,000 m…reports from the ground tell of a sonic boom which means they were going supersonic when they launched their standoff missiles…the higher their altitude at launch the greater the range of the missiles…and the higher the jet the faster the speed it can reach which also will increase the range of the ground attack missile…so it is likely the Israeli jets were flying at a fairly high altitude…maybe 10 km…
In any case 30 km is certainly plenty to reach a base in Israel…where the pilot could have crash landed or even brought the plane in…depending on how controllable it was…
It is instructive to look back at the 1999 Serbian downing of then Lt. Colonel Davide Goldfein’s F-16…Goldfein is now a General and the USAF Chief of Staff…
http://www.f-16.net/f-16-news-article2167.html
He glided for some distance before bailing over a field…he had no chance to reach the Aviano base in Italy…
clearly if the crippled jet was able to make it back to a base there would be no chance for pictures to emerge…
The S200 employed by the Syrians is a capable system…with very good tracking and fire control radars and the missile has a very fast flight speed of over M 8…about 2,500 m/s…
This is a much more capable system than the previous generation S125 the Serbs used to take down Goldfein’s F-16 and the F117 stealth bomber…
In 1995 the Serbs also took down O’Grady’s F-16 over Bosnia with the mobile SA6…[2K12 Kub]…this shorter range but mobile system took a heavy toll on Israeli jets in the ’70s wars…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2K12_Kub#Operational_history
The Serbs also used this system in 1999 and it kept the huge Nato air armada off balance throughout the air war…
‘…Much of the surprise experienced by allied aircrews during their early, unsuccessful forays against Serbia’s integrated air defense system (IADS) in Operation Allied Force may have stemmed from an overconfidence in the Air Force’s SEAD capability, which had taken root in the aftermath of the highly effective SEAD campaign during the opening days of Operation Desert Storm eight years before…’ [my emphasis…SEAD stands for suppression of enemy air defenses]
http://www.airpower.maxwell.af.mil/airchronicles/apj/apj02/sum02/lambeth.html
The Serbs lost just a single S6 battery out of their 20 total in that war…underscoring the importance of mobility in air defense…
Now the Israelis are making a lot of noise about how they can defeat Syrian air defenses…but the fact that they only inched into Syrian airspace before turning back says different…
The mainstream propaganda is that the Israelis and the West have superior electronics and that is why they can jam and defeat Russian SAMs…
Well this is simply childish…the best way of defeating a SAM is to evade the missile…here is where the aircraft maneuverability…engine power and pilot training come into play…for these short hops into Syria the Israeli F16 would be carrying a very light fuel load and only a light weapons load…a couple of short range AAMs and the strike missiles…
As a result the aircraft will have a very good thrust to weight ratio…and with the good maneuverability of the F-16…it has a chance to out-turn a SAM missile…
Jamming pods are heavy and they decrease aircraft aerodynamic performance…and against a modern SAM system they are of dubious effectiveness anyway…
Reason being is the SAM missile’s semi-active radar homing…which does not emit radio frequencies of its own but simply gets signals bounced back off the target aircraft from the ground-based fire-control radar…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Semi-active_radar_homing#Electronic_counter-countermeasure_.28ECCM.29
So the bottom line is that Syria’s claim that it ‘downed’ an Israeli jet is indeed credible…the jet may have been able to make it back to an Israeli airfield…but the aircraft would probably be a writeoff…so it would count as a kill…
The fact that the Israelis are so upset is also a good clue that they have been hurt…
Thanks for your comments.
I’m not aware of the S 200 true performance set,….IE. .it maneuverability vs an F 16.
One report opined it’s a heavy missile. …more suited for lumbering B 52.
Next question is the missile warhead. …radar proximity fuse or command signal (Wiki S 200)
Reports suggest 6 missiles were fired?….less?
If** the S 200 did get near the IAF F 16s…it’s possible the proximity detonation damaged or downed @2.
Possibly Syrian Air defence reacted on confidence of radar track on the IAF F 16s and detonation command
Signal?
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Raad_(air_defense_system)
Syrian BUK M2E/ Iranian Raad….Hezbollah?…
Not saying these could absolutely block IAF from Lebanon /Golan/Jordan borders,
Their mobility and altitude reach…above 72,000ft ?….might limit IAF operations routes,
And Who knows….Maybe an IAF jets evading in a future contact. …drops below 72,000 ft,
And faces the BUK : )
I have to comment here on an article on The Duran site by Andrew Korybko…who asserts that ‘Russia and Israel are ‘allies’…and that Russia will put up only meek protests if Israel ramps up its aggression against Syria…
http://theduran.com/israel-russia-not-verge-war-allies/
This has caused a storm….a number of commenters immediately dismantled this analysis….including the fact that Syria is very strategically important to Russia…and pointing out that Israel had previously armed and trained Saakashvili’s Georgia in its runup to its 2008 aggression against the Russian-protected enclaves of South Ossetia and Abkhazia…not to mention Israel’s ongoing support of terrorists in Syria…
Still…some additional points need to be clarified…
First is this notion that Israel is somehow an ally of the Russian Federation…and that Satanyahoo and VVP have some kind of ‘close personal relationship…’
I will cite here from Korybko…
‘…Far from being Israel’s hated nemesis like many in the alternative media community wishfully pretend that it is, Moscow is one of Tel Aviv’s closest allies, and this is entirely due to President Putin’s deliberate policies. Not only does he enjoy a very strong personal friendship with Netanyahu, but President Putin also sees a lot of opportunity to advance his country’s interests in Israel through the large Russian diaspora there…’ [my emphasis]
The idea that Russia and Israel are allies is so beyond rationality that it beggars belief…allies in what…?…the neocon project to dismantle the RF…?…noting of course that the neocon ringleaders are US Israeli-firsters…and that the Israeli-controlled US Congress is pursuing rabidly anti-Russian policy on behalf of their Israeli lobby paymasters…
As for VVPs ‘personal friendship’ with Satanyahoo…well…we cannot know with any certainty how any major world leader feels personally about any counterpart…with the possible exception of Duterte on Obama…but I think it is enough to say that even Obama couldn’t stand ‘Bibi’…
I seriously doubt anyone truly likes this war criminal on a personal basis…
Korybko goes on to say that Russia has a big-time interest in maintaining some kind of ‘influence’ on Israel because it can help ‘solve’ the Palestinian issue…
Again…it is difficult to know where to start…
First…the Palestinian ‘issue’ no longer exists…any notion of any kind of ‘settlement’ of the Palestinian issue is absurd…
Israel has long ago effectively annexed the Occupied Territories and is looking far beyond the Palestinian lands…its focus now is on further expansion…ie Lebanon…Syria’s Golan…and even chunks of Syria proper…
If anyone thinks VVP does not grasp basic facts like these…then that person needs a straitjacket and a padded cell…
Korybko also mentions how the Israeli gas fields [largely in Gaza’s territorial waters] are of interest to Russia…as well as forthcoming building contracts etc…
Russia’s Gazprom is already the world’s biggest gas supplier by far and one of the most powerful energy companies in the world…if we have learned anything it’s that smaller players are compelled to play by Gazprom’s rules…not the other way round…as one would naturally expect in any kind of business relationship…clout matters…
Now to the real issue at hand…Syria…
VVP and the Russian Federation have drawn a line in the sand in Syria…there will be no backing down…there will be no tolerance of outside aggression…
This is completely clear if one considers that Syria is Russia’s first foreign military intervention since Soviet times and Afghanistan…[some may include the Georgia skirmish and even Crimea…but these do not fully qualify as foreign military interventions…]
Clearly the RF both politically and militarily is deeply committed to both Syria and President Assad…despite what various yahoos might squawk about…
There is a very good geopolitical reason for Russia’s all-in stand on Syria…quite simply it is to block the vital Mediterranean from becoming a Nato lake…
VVP and the RF leadership know very well that the long-term security of Russia depends on having a real sphere of influence in its near abroad…In Soviet times…Syria, Libya and Iraq…among others… were important client states that assured stability and a balance of power in the region…
Is it any coincidence that at precisely the moment in time that Gorbachev was dismantling the Berlin Wall and the Soviet Union…that the US under Bush Sr decided to launch a war against Iraq…?…at the time the ambitions of the US empire were not as grand as today…it was deemed enough to simply ‘de-claw’ Iraq and degrade its military…but no regime change was attempted…
Hot on the heels of that first and somewhat cautious post-Cold War adventure…and right at the same moment in time as the final collapse of the Soviet Union… we saw a much more ambitious Nato gambit…the brutal dismemberment of Yugoslavia…with complete regime change and installation of satrapies in the Balkans for the first time since WW2…
By the turn of the century with the Balkans now ‘pacified’…the empire…duly emboldened with its resounding Balkans success… again turned their cold eye on the ME with an overt war of regime change against Saddam’s Iraq…and also the invasion of Afghanistan…right in Russia’s own backyard…
The sheer bloodiness of all these Imperial aggressions is monumental…but at the same time the West had gained complete information control over their own populations…and even to regions far afield…thus creating for itself a carte-blanche public relations cover for its serial aggression by invoking ‘humanitarian’ intervention… R2P…and the ability to demonize so-called ‘dictators’ and ‘butchers’ it had targeted for violent removal…and thus ‘legitimizing’ its vast crimes against humanity…
At the same time…the West gained near complete administrative control of the UN…being able to appoint dutiful servants of empire to important positions right from the Secretary General on down…In Soviet times it would have been unthinkable to appoint US puppets like Ban…Annan…or even Gutierrez…
Not to mention all the other influential posts like human rights and on down the line…special envoys like De Mistura and others are openly servants of empire…they know where their bread is buttered…
Even in the world of sport Russia has become completely marginalized in administrative bodies which are now wholly political and openly hostile to the Russian people…
At the same time as all of these marginalizations of Russian influence on world affairs have been taking place…the Nato military machine has been pushing east with the determination and zeal of Hitler…
There is no question the final straw was the bloody putsch in Ukraine…this was a step too far…
Let’s step back and look at how the world has changed in the last quarter century since Gorby pushed the self-destruct button on the USSR…and which VVP rightly calls tragic…and which every Russian patriot considers likewise…
Yugoslavia…Iraq…Libya…Afghanistan…all lie in ruins…Syria is hanging on by a thread…the heartland of historical Russia…an artificial state called Ukraine…which literally means ‘frontier’ in Russian…is now being trod upon by gangsters like Biden, Nuland and every possible Khazarian dirtball…
Does anyone think that all these facts of reality are somehow lost on VVP…?
Today’s reality is that Russia is now a nation that has caught its breath…the domestic situation has been largely stabilized…[despite all the neocon support for Chechen terrorism]…
Good progress is being made on all fronts in reviving and revitalizing the military industrial sector…the cornerstone of any Great Power…
Russia is finding its sea legs on the world stage too…its Great Power historical memory is reawakening…as it was always certain that it would…
There can be no more clawing back of Russia’s rightful global influence…Syria is the line in the sand that cannot be crossed…
The situation on the ground in Syria reflects that reality…whether it’s talked about or not…the historic Aleppo victory has sealed the deal…there can be no realistic notion now of bringing down Assad [who happens to be very popular with the Syrian people]…or even carving up Syria which was always the Plan B…
Militarily the RF indisputably has the capability to shut down the Syrian airspace…and declare a no-fly zone…
This is now purely a political question…not a military one…
But this is not lost on the US military…as brought into sharp relief by Dunford’s comments last fall in the context of congressional discussion of a US no-fly-zone in Syria…and the consequences of such a laughable notion…
The empire under the sway of the neocons has been hubristic to the point of utter stupidity…its gamble in Georgia was one example…it got burned…South Ossetia and Abkhazia separated…subsequent Georgian regime has been much more realistic towards Russia…
Empire’s desperate gamble in the Ukraine is similarly coming up snake eyes…Crimea…the crown jewel of the Black Sea is out of reach forever…Novorossiya likely as well…even the entirety of Ukraine has no chance but to return to the fold of Mother Russia sooner or later…the pull of gravity cannot be denied…[with the possible exception of the ethnic Galicians…who aren’t ‘Ukrainians’ anyway…]
At the same time that Russia is regaining its historical strength, the empire is in disarray…the chickens are coming home to roost after 25 years of mindless aggression…needless bloodshed on a genocidal scale not seen since Hitler…and all underpinned by massive denial of reality and mind control of dumbed down masses…
Well…to say the empire is now a house of cards would be generous…
So how does the small matter of the latest Israeli offense against Syria fit into the big picture…?
Well…quite simply it is an irritant…there is not a grain of truth to Israel’s claim that it is actually concerned about Hesbollah getting weapons in Syria…that’s a canard…
What is happening is that Israel is clearly not happy how things are shaping up in Syria…it is trying to stir up what trouble it can…which is not much…but it has no real capability to challenge the facts on the ground…even the US lacks that capability…
As for the Jewish State’s threats to take out Syria’s air defenses…it is completely laughable…I will not go into the technical details here…but it is a physical impossibility…even if the Russian SAMs stay on the sideline…the Syrians are more than capable of putting their newly refurbished hardware…and newly trained SAM crews to very purposeful use against any aircraft Israel can throw at them…[it’s worth noting here that Israel possesses only tactical aircraft…not the heavy bombers the Serbs had to deal with…including B52 and B2…]
I would not lose any sleep about Syria being able to fend off Israeli F16 and F15s…
Now There are a couple of interesting facts that do not seem to be getting noticed…
First we had the US bombing of that mosque in Aleppo province…this is the first time I can remember that the US actually bombed Al Nusra…it was quite comical to see pictures of the White Helmets digging out their fallen Jihadist brothers from under the rubble…
https://theintercept.com/2017/03/17/pentagon-denies-bombing-syrian-mosque-but-its-own-photo-may-prove-that-it-did…
the Nusra jihadists are now quite perplexed by this turn of events and the US U turn
We also see the Kurds in Manbij inviting the Syrian army in as a backstop against the advancing Turks and their FSA [and other assorted terrorist] proxies…while at the same time the US is sending its own troops there and flying the flag…
So we have the following ‘new’ news…The SAA and US forces are on the same side in Manbij…facing down the Turks and the FSA ‘freedom fighters…’
It seems hard to believe the US actually bombing Nusra…when just weeks ago we had Team Kerry pulling out all the stops to provide them exemption from Russian bombing in Aleppo…
Clearly something has changed…and nobody is even noticing…
So who’s left standing after the tune has stopped in mid-note…well for one the Israelis…for another the Turks…
Not that they ever really had any real power on the ground in Syria anyway…other than their proxies…
So no…Israel is not Russia’s ally…it is a good question if Israel is really anyone’s ally…including the US…don’t forget the USS Liberty…
No…Israel does not do Alliances…it does parasitism…always has…always will…
http://lesakerfrancophone.fr/la-superpuissance-etats-unienne-est-en-etat-de-delabrement-interne
As for Russia in Syria…you can bet your bottom dollar that Syria’s sovereignty and President Assad’s tenure [as long as he remains popular] is fully underwritten by the strongest assurances of the Russian Federation…and VVP personally…
Ok…so the issue of Israeli raids into Syria has a military technical dimension as well as political…
I see a lot of comments on this site and others where people wonder if Israel is really able to knock out Syrian air defenses…why doesn’t Russia give the Syrians S300s or even S400s…and even whether these latest Russian SAM weapons could even defeat the Israeli air force…?
Well the short answer is that Israeli jets…or anyone else’s for that matter…stand no chance against Russian air defenses in Syria…the long answer is a bit more involved…and interesting…
The question of SAMs vs air power is one that is of utmost importance in modern warfare and which has a long history…reviewing that history is quite useful…
The first place to start is with a general comment about popular conceptions and misconceptions…
The people of the West have been literally bombarded over the last several decades about the technological superiority of Western air power…to the point that many believe it is invincible…
But the lessons of history paint a very different picture…
It is instructive to start with the Vietnam war…as this was the first mighty test of modern air power [US] vs modern air defenses [Soviet]…
I think it would come as a surprise to many that the United States lost as many as 10,000 aircraft in Vietnam…against 150 to 200 aircraft lost by the North Vietnamese…
This wikipedia article gives a decent accounting…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_aircraft_losses_of_the_Vietnam_
Note that the North downed no less than 17 B52 heavy bombers with SAM shots…
Here is a good recent article by Carlo Kopp…a knowledgeable air power analyst who holds advanced engineering degrees…
http://www.ausairpower.net/APA-SAM-Effectiveness.html
Kopp gives here a good historical overview of the SAM vs air power dance…starting with SE Asia [Vietnam]…then on to the ME and the various Arab-Israeli conflicts…on to Desert Storm [the first Iraq war…and finally closing the loop with the Nato air war against Serbia in 1999…
In brief…the Vietnam war scorecard was that US airpower was not a match for Soviet air defense…
Let us now examine the 1973 Arab-Israeli war…specifically the aspect of Soviet-supplied SAMs vs Western-supplied Israeli aircraft…
As in all conflicts arriving at precise figures is something of an inexact science…since neither side is open or truthful about its losses…incidentally the US is one of the biggest historical liars when it comes to acknowledging its losses…only doing so when the evidence is unassailable…
Still…Kopp notes…
‘…It is widely acknowledged that the Israelis suffered heavy losses of aircraft during the fighting in 1973. Exactly how many were lost to SAMs, and to which type of SAM, has been less well documented. Israeli public claims are that 303 aircraft were lost in combat…’
We have a now declassified memo from one Henry A. Kissinger dated Oct. 22, 1973…which summarizes a discussion with top Israeli officials while the 1973 October War was raging…thw participants included PM Golda Meir and Defense Minister Moshe Dayan…
http://nsarchive.gwu.edu/NSAEBB/NSAEBB98/octwar-56.pdf
The conversation is very enlightening…
Defense Minister Dayan: Would you like to hear something about the Air Force?
Secretary Kissinger: Please.
General Peled: ‘…Our major problem until this morning was missiles, especially the SA6…which were very efficient and of which we took account because we had to. After a few days we went after them. We have lost 32 F4s, 53 A4s, and 11 Mirages, 6 Super Mysteres, for a total of 102 of all kinds…’
the conversation continues…
Secretary Kissinger: To which missile have you lost the most?
General Peled: The SA6.
Secretary Kissinger: Not the SA7?…
General Peled: Also the SA7, but the SA6 mainly. The problem was its good performance, but also because the West has no experience with it.’
The SA6 [Russian 2K12 Kub] is a mobile short to medium range SAM introduced in the ’60s…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2K12_Kub#Middle_East
The above wiki article on the SA6 notes…
‘…The 2K12 surprised the Israelis in the 1973 Yom Kippur War. They were used to having air superiority over the battlefield. The highly mobile 2K12 took a heavy toll on the slower A-4 Skyhawk and even the F-4 Phantom, forming a protective umbrella until they could be removed. The radar warning receivers on the Israeli aircraft did not alert the pilot to the fact that he was being illuminated by the radar. Once the RWRs were reprogrammed and tactics changed, the 2K12 was no longer such a grave threat, but still caused heavy losses to Israeli aircraft….’
The SA7 that Kissinger was worried about is the 9K32 Strela manpad…introduced in 1968 and a deadly little weapon in its own right…we will come back to the Strela a bit later…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/9K32_Strela-2#Middle_East
Again…as in Vietnam…the Soviet air defense equipment proved formidable…while the Israelis did eventually win the war…the Soviet SAMs were seen as a huge problem by US military planners…
‘…The losses suffered by Israel in the 1973 war were so high that it indirectly spawned the United States stealth aircraft program, Project HAVE BLUE. The U.S. estimated that without a solution to the SAM problem, even the United States would suffer depletion of its Air Force within two weeks of a conflict erupting between the U.S. and Soviet Union. The Israelis had lost 109 aircraft in 18 days…’
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Mole_Cricket_19#Aftermath_of_the_Yom_Kippur_War
The next ME conflict was Israel’s invasion of Lebanon in 1982…and the subsequent Israeli air war against Syria…in which they decimated the same Syrian air defenses that had proved so formidable in 1973…
This 1982 episode…sometimes called the ‘Bekaa Turkey Shoot’ was a resounding Israeli success…and it is still trumpeted today in mythical terms…It was ‘the first time in history that a Western-equipped air force successfully destroyed a Soviet-built surface-to-air missile (SAM) network…’
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Mole_Cricket_19
Indisputably it was a resounding victory for Israeli air power…which was able to annihilate Syrian SA6s and down a number of Syrian warplanes in air to air combat [although it should be noted that the Syrians were flying antiquated second-generation jets like the Mig-21 against the new fourth generation US F15s and F16s]…
It was a disaster for the Syrians…
No other event has been as influential in shaping the popular belief about the technological prowess of Western air power…I still remember the hoopla in the media about the supposed 80 something to zero kill rate against Syrian jets…
Here is just one such such bit of hyperbole…
http://www.airforcemag.com/MagazineArchive/Pages/2002/June%202002/0602bekaa.aspx
‘…In Moscow, the Bekaa Valley operation threw military men into a kind of shock. Top Soviet systems had been trounced. On a visit to Czechoslovakia in 1991, [Isreali AF commander] Ivry met a Czech general who had been serving in Moscow in 1982. He told Ivry that the Bekaa Valley air war made the Soviets understand that Western technology was superior to theirs, and in this Czech general’s view, the blow to the Bekaa Valley SAMs was part of the cascade of events leading to the collapse of the Soviet Union.
..’
Now there is no other way to say this but this is complete nonsense and wishful thinking…by 1979 the USSR had already fielded the potent S300 and fourth generation air superiority jets like the Sukhoi Su27 were well into their flight test programs…
To think that the Syrian debacle of 1982 caused serious consternation among Soviet military men is insane…as we shall see…there was nothing wrong with the Soviet equipment used by the Syrians…problem was the way the Syrians used it…
The Syrians in 1982…and the Iraqis in 1991 did have good Soviet air defense equipment and were routed nonetheless…but here is the important point…when it comes to any kind of military conflict whether on land, sea or air…the hardware and equipment is just one part of the equation…equally important are things like discipline, training, tactics and strategy…
Here is Kopp’s informed account of what really happened in 1982 in the Bekaa Valley and why…
‘…The Soviet doctrine of ambush attacks, SAM system mobility, clever use of emission control and decoys, camouflage of SAM sites, and the use of supporting electronic warfare assets was abandoned by the Syrians completely…’
Kopp goes on to cite from another respected author…
‘…Syrian SAM operators also invited disaster upon themselves. Their Soviet equipment was generally regarded as quite good; Syrian handling of it was appalling.
As noted by Lt Gen Leonard Perroots, director of the US Defense Intelligence Agency, “The Syrians used mobile missiles in a fixed configuration; they put the radars in the valley instead of the hills because they didn’t want to dig latrines — seriously.”
The Syrian practice of stationing mobile missiles in one place for several months allowed Israeli reconnaissance to determine the exact location of the missiles and their radars, giving the IAF a definite tactical advantage on the eve of battle.
Even so, the Syrians might have been able to avoid the complete destruction of their SAM complex had they effectively camouflaged their sites; instead, they used smoke to “hide” them, which actually made them easier to spot from the air. It is ironic that the Syrians, who have been criticized for their strict adherence to Soviet doctrine, chose to ignore the viable doctrine that emphasizes the utility of maneuver and camouflage.
According to a 1981 article in Soviet Military Review, alternate firing positions, defensive ambushes, regular repositioning of mobile SAMs to confuse enemy intelligence, and the emplacement of dummy SAM sites are fundamental considerations for the effective deployment and survivability of ground-based air defenses.”
It should also be noted that the Israelis deserve a lot of credit for a meticulously planned and executed operation…Kopp details this in an analysis published in 1983…
http://ausairpower.net/AADR-E-2C-AEW.html
‘…Israel had suffered heavy losses in the 1973 Yom Kippur war, when Egyptian SAMs and AAA accounted for 150 aircraft in a mere 3 days.
Though the IAF was actively involved in electronic warfare even during the earlier War of Attrition, operating converted KC-97 transports for the role, the losses sustained in 1973 were taken very seriously, leading to a growing emphasis on electronic warfare and surveillance…’
What happened after the SAM victory against Israel in 1973 is that they realized they needed to find a way to counter this deadly threat…they focused on electronic warfare…Airborne early Warning [AEW]…ELINT [electronic intelligence and surveillance]…radar jamming and radar-homing missiles [anti-radiation missiles or ARMs]…
Israel purchased Airborne Early Warning aircraft from the US…specifically the Grumman E2-C ‘Hawkeye’…which is a smaller but capable platform used on US aircraft carriers…refitted two Boeing 707 transports as Elint and jamming platforms…and quite importantly focused on developing remotely piloted vehicles…
Kopp describes how the Israelis struck…
‘… Israel executed a precise and deadly accurate attack on the Bekaa valley.
Initially, RPVs were flown into radar range, these being fitted with deceptive electronic countermeasures. Using textbook EW tactics, the RPVs appeared on Syrian radar scopes as fast, low flying fighters, out on a strike mission.
All [Syrian] guidance and tracking radars were powered up, to lock on to the non-existent attackers. At this stage, several E-2C Hawkeyes were orbiting off the coast of Lebanon, these aircraft instantly detected the SAM radar systems with PDS and relayed their positions to waiting strike squadrons.
Meanwhile Wolf missiles were launched at the radars, sited at the detected SAM positions. Once in range, each Wolf’s seeker locked onto an emitter and the missile destroyed it.
It appears as this was going on, the EW Boeing 707s were actively jamming all Syrian communications.
Once the majority of the radars was crippled, the fighters moved into action. Presumably, the first wave carried Shrike ARMs, to knock out the remaining transmitters, these aircraft were backed up with cluster bomb and iron bomb armed fighters, which attacked the actual SAM launchers.
The fighters flew in below Syrian ground based radar, presumably under the direction of the E-2Cs and surprised the SAM crews. Once hit by cluster bombs, the systems were disabled, iron bombs were then used to finish off the job.
It appears that the IAF destroyed 19 SAM batteries and supporting 23mm, 37mm and 57mm AAA systems within an hour or so.
It could be assumed that a lot of chaff was released in the initial stages to confuse the gunlaying radars on the AAA systems, as it is likely these would have escaped the ARMs in the initial attack, as the AAA would serve to defend the SAMs systems…’
So there is what really happened in 1982…the outcome had very little to do with the technical abilities of the Soviet equipment…it had everything to do with the Syrian sloppiness and inability or unwillingness to follow Soviet operational doctrine…and of course the Israelis’ meticulously prepared and executed attack…
There is nothing mystical or magical about it…yes the advent of electronic warfare equipment and drone technology certainly played a major role…but the same kinds of technology were also possessed by the Soviets at the time…as well as rapid development in electronic countermeasures to defeat the use of EW in aerial warfare…
This move-countermove is still going on of course…but it is important to review this history in order to get a feel for where we stand today…
So the scorecard to this point is that Soviet SAMs won in Vietnam and in the Yom Kippur war of 1973…but lost in the Lebanon war of 1982…
Now before we get to Desert Storm and Serbia…it is instructive to review a hubristic US raid on Syrian air defenses in Lebanon just one year later…in 1983…
This incident was a huge redemption for the Syrian air defenses after the 1982 debacle… and a hugely embarrassing punch in the nose for US air power…and is understandably little discussed today…
there is a good account of this incident here…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/9K32_Strela-2#Middle_East
‘…The Strela [manpad] was deployed by Syrian forces occupying Lebanon, along with other Soviet air-defense systems that challenged U.S., French and Israeli airpower in the aftermath of the 1982 conflict and the deployment of the Multinational Force in Lebanon during that year. On 10 November 1983, a French Super Etendard escaped from being hit by an SA-7 near Bourj el-Barajneh while flying over Druze People’s Liberation Army (PLA) positions and, on 3 December, more Strelas and anti-aircraft artillery (AAA) were fired at United States Navy F-14 Tomcats flying a reconnaissance mission.
The Americans responded with a large strike package of 12 A-7 Corsairs and 16 A-6 Intruders (supported by a single E-2C Hawkeye, two EA-6B Prowlers [radar jamming] and two F-14As) launched from the carriers USS John F. Kennedy (CV-67) and USS Independence (CV-62) sailing in the Mediterranean.
The aircraft were to bomb Syrian installations, AAA sites and weapons depots near Falouga and Hammana, some 16 km north of Beirut-Damascus highway, when they were received by a volley of (possibly up to 40) Syrian SAMs, one of which hit a Corsair (AE305 of the VA-15) and forcing the pilot to eject over the sea before being rescued by a USN search and rescue mission.
The attack formation broke, every pilot attacked each objective on its own and it prompted the shooting down of the second U.S aircraft: an Intruder from VA-85 was hit either by an SA-7 or an SA-9. This forced the navigator, Lieutenant Bobby Goodman to eject near a village surrounded by Syrian positions, while the pilot of the A-6, Lt. Mark Lange, ejected too late and died from his wounds soon after being captured by Syrian soldiers and Lebanese civilians. Goodman was captured by the Syrians and taken to Damascus before being freed in January 1984.
A second Corsair, searching for the downed Intruder crew, was later hit by an SA-7 but the pilot, Cdr. Edward Andrews, managed to eject over the sea near Beirut and was rescued by a Christian fisherman and his son who in turn handed him over to the U.S Marines…’
Another more detailed account of this incident was revived by none other than the Council on Foreign Relations in 2012…in the context of a reminder about rushing militarily into Syria..
http://blogs.cfr.org/zenko/2012/02/13/when-america-attacked-syria/
Note the reader comment from ‘Robert…’
‘…I was on the Independence [aircraft carrier] in 1983. It was a hastily executed raid that may have been cover for a ground special op. The only fully loaded aircraft on the raid was the A-6 that was shot down. Very fortunate more planes besides the A-6 and A-7 weren’t lost. Launch an attack in the morning flying east so the sun is in your eyes??? One A-7 can back minus 3 feet of it’s engine exhaust pipe due to a heat seeker…’
Now this illustrates my point in my previous post that a heavily armed and fueled aircraft is far less likely to escape a SAM shot…due to its degraded maneuverability…
However the point about flying into the sun…or the article author’s point about the misty weather conditions… should not in theory be a factor for an all-weather attack jet like the A6 which is designed to be flown by reference to its instruments even in zero visibility…
In any case…we see again that it is not just technology that counts…clearly the US strike force had everything going in its favor…AEW…jamming…etc…but none of that counts for much if the mission is ill conceived and poorly executed…same as the Syrians in 1982…
We see this very same problem with Iraq in the First Gulf War…here again the country’s entire Soviet-equipped air defense system was quickly obliterated by US air power…
Again…it was the Iraqis inability or unwillingness to stick to doctrinal use of the equipment that was the problem…here is Kopp on that…
‘…The 1982 Bekaa Valley debacle was repeated on a much larger scale in January, 1991, when US led Coalition air forces annihilated Saddam’s SAM defences, the decisive blows inflicted in the first few hours.
While that campaign is well documented in detail elsewhere, like the 1982 campaign, large scale use was made of anti-radiation missiles, support jamming, and precision weapons. The deployment pattern of Saddam’s forces also differed little, with few batteries attempting to exploit any inherent mobility in their systems, and often undisciplined emissions permitting easy location, targeting and attack…’
It should be noted also that a big factor in both the 1982 and Desert Storm air defense flops was the fact that the Soviet equipment had been fully compromised after Egypt switched sides in 1976…and the West gained access to its Soviet equipment…as Kopp points out…
‘…The Soviets were cast out of Egypt in early 1976, followed by Sadat’s peace treaty with Israel and Egypt’s realignment away from conflict with the West. Chinese and Western contractors took over support of the Soviet SAM systems…
Still…the main issue was still operational…here is Kopp again…
‘…The failure of Syrian and Iraqi missileers to follow Soviet operational doctrine, tactics and deployment technique indicates that the root cause of poor effectiveness in combat was deeply deficient training of missileers, and prima facie, also support personnel. The effectiveness of the very same SAM systems, operated by Soviet, Warsaw Pact and PAVN personnel, was vastly better, whether in the Middle East or South East Asia…’
It is worth pointing out one very little-known incident here…
‘…In the early dawn of 31 January 1991, during the Battle of Khafji in Operation Desert Storm, an Iraqi soldier shot down an American AC-130H gunship with a Strela 2 [manpad], killing all 14 crewmembers…’
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/9K32_Strela-2#Middle_East
So even one good man with just a shoulder-mounted manpad can take out a 55-ton four-engine gunship with 14 crew on board…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lockheed_AC-130
Which brings us finally to the Nato air war against Serbia in 1999…here’s Kopp again…
‘…If we compare Desert Storm to Allied Force, the SAM systems were largely the same, but NATO had better electronic warfare systems, many more Emitter Locating Systems, and an abundance of newer smart munitions, including newer and better anti-radiation missiles. The fundamental difference was in the personnel operating the SAM systems – better educated, better trained, and highly motivated…’
It’s well known of course that the Serbs brought down an F117 ‘stealth’ bomber…damaged another F117…and brought down the F16 of current USAF chief of staff David Goldfein…
What is less well known is that the Serbs were able to deny the vast Nato air Armada of 1,000 aircraft…including heavy bombers B52, B1 and B2…large chunks of Serb airspace right until the end…
Dr. Benjamin Lambeth in Aerospace Power Journal writes…
‘…Before the initial strikes, there were reports of a large-scale dispersal of SA-3 and SA-6 batteries from nearly all of the known garrisons. The understandable reluctance of enemy SAM operators to emit and thus render themselves cooperative targets made them much harder to find and attack, forcing allied aircrews to remain constantly alert to the radar-guided SAM threat throughout the war…
Moreover, unlike the more permissive operating environment in Desert Storm, limitations to airspace availability typically made for high predictability on the part of attacking NATO aircraft This situation also had the effect of denying some high-risk targets for a time, increasing force-package size, and increasing overall requirements for SEAD sorties…’
http://www.airpower.maxwell.af.mil/airchronicles/apj/apj02/sum02/lambeth.html
In other words…Nato jets had to avoid risky air corridors and fly in more predictable routes…this is a major crimp on any air strike operation…and it is a far cry from establishing air dominance…
‘…In the end, as noted above, enemy SAM fire brought down only two aircraft (both American), thanks to allied reliance on electronic jamming, towed decoys, and countertactics to negate enemy surface-to-air defenses.
However, NATO never fully succeeded in neutralizing the Serb IADS, and NATO aircraft operating over Serbia and Kosovo were always within the engagement envelopes of enemy SA-3 and SA-6 missiles—envelopes that extended as high as 50,000 feet.
Because of that persistent threat, mission planners had to place such high-value surveillance-and-reconnaissance platforms as the U-2 and JSTARS in less-than-ideal orbits to keep them outside the lethal reach of enemy SAMs.
Even during the operation’s final week, NATO spokesmen conceded that they could confirm the destruction of only three of Serbia’s approximately 25 known mobile SA-6 batteries…’ [my emphasis]
Kopp…in a separate analysis…notes that the Nato air war despite not losing many aircraft…had a high cost in terms of aircraft fatigue life…depleted munitions stocks etc…
‘…The air campaign over Kosovo severely affected the readiness rates of the United States Air Force’s Air Combat Command during that period.
Units in the United States were the most badly affected, as they were were stripped of their personnel and spare parts to support ACC (Air Combat Command) and AMC (Air Mobility Command) units involved in Operation Allied Force.
The Commander of the USAF’s Air Combat Command, General Richard E Hawley, outlined this in a speech to reporters on 29 April, 1999. Further, many aircraft will have to be replaced earlier than previously planned, as their planned fatigue life was prematurely expended.
PGM inventories needed to be re-stocked, the warstock of the AGM-86C Conventional Air-Launched Cruise Missile dropping to 100 or fewer rounds. Of the more than 25,000 bombs and missiles expended, nearly 8,500 were PGMs, with the replacement cost estimated at $US1.3 billion.
Thus the USAF suffered from virtual attrition of its air force without having scored a large number of kills in theatre. Even if the United States’ best estimates of Serbian casualties are used, the Serbians left Kosovo with a large part of their armoured forces intact.…[my emphasis]
http://www.ausairpower.net/APA-2009-04.html
So what we see in Serbia in 1999 is quite a wake-up call…as Lambeth puts it…
‘…The unsettling SEAD experience of Allied Force sent a much-needed wake-up call to the Air Force’s EW community…’
Little Serbia was able to keep its antiquated and rather modest ’60s era air defense system intact and active throughout the campaign…despite the fact that Nato launched more than 800 ARM missiles at Serb radars…for a total result of 3 SA6 kills…In turn the Serbs launched over 800 SAMs and brought down two aircraft and damaged several more…basically a Mexican standoff…
Not only that …but just by keeping its defenses alive…Serbia was forcing Nato to use up its airplanes’ useful life…to deplete its munitions…[less than 100 air launched cruise missiles left in stock…!]
Clearly if this had been an air war against a bigger foe…at some point the ‘virtual attrition’ would have caused enough pain for the operation to be either called off…or an escalation to a ground invasion…
The scorecard here is a resounding win for Serbia’s Soviet era air defenses…the combined might of 19 Nato countries…with a population of nearly a billion people…was not able to destroy the Serb air defenses…Nato pilots had to keep dodging Serb SAMs until the last day…as Lambeth points out…
‘…Indeed, the SAM threat to NATO’s aircrews proved far more pronounced and harrowing than media coverage typically depicted, and aggressive jinking and countermaneuvering against airborne SAMs frequently became necessary whenever the Serbs sought to engage NATO aircraft….
So here we have a pretty good historical review of the SAM vs air power tango…
There can be no question that Israel could in no way begin to mount the size and scope of the 1999 Nato campaign…it does not even have many of the higher order equipment…like strategic bombers…high altitude spy planes…etc…
On the other hand…we know that Syria has vastly more modern air defense equipment…and its integrated air defense system is huge compared to that of the Serbs…
Besides the legacy equipment… Syria has the quite modern and deadly Buk and the Pantsir…which has already drawn blood…in the 2012 downing of the Turkish jet…there can be little doubt that even the legacy equipment has been deeply upgraded…
We can also safely assume that with the significant Russian military presence in country…that the Syrian missile crews are now very well trained and disciplined…
The bottom line is that there is no conceivable scenario where Israel could inflict any real damage on Syrian air defense…
On the other hand…the Israelis are playing with fire if they continue their reckless aggression…It is quite possible that Syrian SAM fire on March 17 either damaged or even resulted in the writeoff of an Israeli jet…
From a political angle…it is conceivable that the Russians have been urging the Syrians to show restraint…but clearly that does not apply to Israeli airspace violations and open aggression against Syrian troops…
The Israelis have been warned…that’s why their ambassador was called on the carpet in Moscow…anyone who thinks that VVP is not serious…or that there is some ‘nudge-wink’ going on between him and Israel is obviously a fool…
According to the following source NATO losses were much higher in 1999:
“By April 20, 1999, NATO losses were believed to stand at approximately the following:
38 fixed-wing combat aircraft;
Six helicopters;
Seven unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs);
“Many” Cruise Missiles (lost to AAA or SAM fire).”
https://archive.is/qq6Uo
@”Serbia and Kosovo”
Kosovo is a part of Serbia.