The way I see it the results of the vote in Greece are a huge, tectonic *disaster*.
When I heard of these results, my first thoughts were exactly like Carlo’s: “The Greeks are either crazy, or there was severe fraud in the elections“.
Indeed, how anybody in their right mind could ever not vote for Syriza and the only person with a clear concept for a solution to the Greek crisis, Alexis Tsipras, is simply beyond me.
I just cannot believe that those who courageously resisted for so long are now just going to surrender.
What happened?
What will happen?
Will there now be a violent uprising?
Any ideas?
Greece: the exit poll?
“An old man marched over to me and declared: “I am voting for the thieves.” (This is how a lot of Greeks now refer to Antonis Samaras’s party, ND, and their left-wing partners, Pasok.)” Guardian reporter.
So New Democracy (ND) has won a narrow victory. Indeed, leftist Syriza led among 18-34 year-olds and 35-54s. So the ND victory is entirely due to seniors like those quoted above. There has been a polarisation on the right towards ND and to the left around SYRIZA, but the anti-bailout parties still polled more than the pro-austerity parties by 53% to 47% (including those parties that did not make parliament).
ND’ s victory is a blow to the chances of the Greek people of getting out of the deep depression that the economy is in, with near 25% unemployment, a contraction in output of around 7% annual rate (down nearly 20% since the peak) and the government and utilities running out of money to provide basic services like health, lighting and heating.
ND is the leading right-wing party and responsible, along with ‘collaborationist’ ‘socialist’ PASOK, for the mess in the first place. ND represent the rich, the people who don’t pay their taxes and big business and the banks in Greece. They have ended up as the largest party ahead of the leftist SYRIZA through a combination of fear that Greece will be thrown out of the European Union if the people elect the left; through black propaganda against the left; and through hints and promises by the Euro leaders that the pro- bailout parties can negotiate a better deal on austerity. During the campaign, much was made by ND that it could so. The Euro leaders made it clear that a new deal could be negotiated. And the OECD on the eve of the election called for a new package. These promises just won it for ND.
The EU leaders are preparing a package of incentives to convince the Greeks to stick to the country’s current bailout deal. The package includes further reductions in interest rates and extended repayment periods for the bailout loans, as well as EU money to spur investments in Greek public works programmes through the European Investment Bank. As one Euro official put it, off the record, “In the scenario where Samaras wins the elections, we would like to see him committing very clearly to his adherence to the memorandum. Then we would get together with the new Greek government and say: here is what we can now do to make life a bit sweeter, a bit less harsh.”
…
So what is likely to happen? Germany does not want a Greek exit because of the collateral damage it will do, but it also wants the Greeks to stick to the fiscal austerity programme. The Greeks don’t want or can’t stick to austerity, but they want to stay in the euro.
There are three possible outcomes: 1) in order to avoid a euro meltdown, the Euro leaders make significant concessions on the fiscal targets and on the time to meet them, write off more Greek debt and provide funding for growth projects; or 2) a new Greek government agrees to revised fiscal targets and persuades its parliament and people to implement them; or 3) Greece rejects the targets and/or cannot meet them at the next review by the Troika. So the Troika stops further funding, Greece defaults and then exits the Eurosystem as the ECB stops funding the Greek banks. The Euro leaders take a chance on handling the consequences of a Greek exit by offering more support for Eurozone banks and Italy and Spain.
Which is the most likely? 1) 20% 2) 30% 3) 50%
http://thenextrecession.wordpress.com/2012/06/17/greece-the-exit-poll/