As soon as I finished my post about why the Novorussians cannot go on the counter-offensive they did. Right?
No, no really. Sorry. I don’t want to rain on anybody’s parade, but we have to carefully assess what is going on. I have listened very carefully to the reports from Novorussia and here is what I think has happened:
From guerrilla to combined-arms:
The Novorussian military command has announced that from purely guerilla-type of operations it has switched to “regular” (combined-arms) military operations. What does that mean? Well, in this context it means that instead of the hit-and-run kind of tactics I described yesterday, the Novorussians will go on the offensive in attacks which will include tanks and artillery support. Officially, the Novorussians have formed at least 2 tank battalions, several artillery battalions, and they have freed 7 towns (Agronomicheskoe, Novodvorskoe, Osykovo, Novokaternikova, Leninskoe, Stroitel and Novoazovsk) and surrounded six more (Blagodatnoe, Kuteinikovo, Voisovskii, Ulianovskoe, Uspenka, Alekseevskoe). The southern cauldron been fully reformed, and now includes 5000+ surrounded Ukies including the Aidar, Donbass and Shakhtersk National Guard battalions). Finally, the Ukie forces in Ilovaisk are in full retreat. This is all very good news. But this is not a strategic counter-offensive the Novorussian suceesfully take Novoazovsk and move towards Mariupol this will be far from over.
For one thing, while it appears that the Ukies were caught off guard, they are far from being down and out yet. Second, if the Novorussians really make a move along the seashore towards Mariupol, they will risk being surrounded the way the Ukies have been in the “southern cauldron”. Last, but not least, a couple of tank battalions, even supported by artillery, are not the kind of forces that will liberate all of Novorussia.
Don’t misunderstand me, what has happened is definitely very good news, but this is not the “counter-offensive to Kiev” some have been expecting. Still, if the Novorussians are truly successful this time, this could mean that the junta has reached the “breaking point” I have mentioned in my recent post.
Ukie Independence Day celebrations in Kiev and Donetsk
It was a bizzare day today. While the Nazis were celebrating their (now truly lost) “independence” in Kiev, the Novorussians were parading Ukie POW in the streets of Donetsk and, in a recreation of the German POW parade in Moscow in summer 1944, washing the street after the prisoners. That kind of parading is a violation of the Geneva Conventions, but against the massive and systematic violation of every concievable norm of civilized behavior by the Nazi junta since the coup which brought them to power, this is a rather modest violation on the Novorussian side. And the Ukies really deserved it. It was also a great PR move. Best of all, it really denied Poroshenko his much expected victory for the 24th. Instead of taking Luganks, his forces were pushed back, surrounded and paraded as POW. I can just about imagine his rage :-)
A good day, but not V day (yet)
Bottom line: today has been a great day and I want to congratulate you all with all the good news, but let’s not assume that this is the beginning of the end and that the Ukie forces are finished. It is *possible* that the Ukies are near or at the breaking point, but at this point in time we don’t have the elements to conclude this.
The Saker
Saker Message:
Auslander said…25 August, 2014 05:38
That sort of all encompassing corruption is institutional in the USA as well. Some different ways it is applied, the ami have 200+ years at it, so their corruption is done more subtly, but the same total lack of power in the population over politics and most aspects of their day to day needs.
вот так
Anonymous said…25 August, 2014 08:02
“(the really fun part is that the traditionally “leftist” newspapers are the most rabid pro-Nazi propaganda outlets)”
Supposedly left and progressive sources promoting ZPC/NWO propaganda themes and policies is usually a very good indication of zionist corruption of those sources.
вот так
An excellent summary of the current military situation in Donbass (in english) is here
http://slavyangrad.org/2014/08/25/novorossiya-military-briefing-situation-as-of-august-22-2014/
(well, current as of Aug. 22; things are developing so fast there now :-)
Auslander,
Thanks for the backgrounder on how things “work” in the ‘democratic entity of Ukieland’.
Questions for you: There were 4.2 million Russian speakers in the Eastern region when this started, reportedly.
Now around one million have gone to Russia.
What is the census really of Donbass? How many people at the start were Russia-speakers, how many were Ukrainian-speakers and where are they all now? Are people just moving around locally, because it does not seem like half have left to Russia, though it is often said the cities are half empty.
The big cities seem to have lost significant population, but do we have any totals that indicate what really is the base left?
Have the Ukrainian-speakers left the region also?
We know that in Slavyansk the Ukies have repopulated with people from the West after filtering our Russian-speakers.
Is this filtering out and repopulating going on in other cities?
Are there large numbers of refugees coming to Crimea?
Thanks for always providing the Vineyard with solid, clear information.
Auslander,
The corruption flowing to Kiev may be what most folks care about, but the geopolitical issues are not so simple. The US wants the bases in the Crimea, and to wipe out Russian-oriented businesses in the southeast. Then there is the NATO question.
Do you think federalization could really work when so many in the country seem to hate all things Russian? As long as the US controls the media and educational bureaucracy, more and more citizens will likely hate Russia, even in the Donbass. This latest failure under Poroshenko can just be another step in the glory of Ukraine, where the evil Russian enemy has harmed them.
Mohamed,
Thank you, you’re very kind — but an awfully good writer yourself, you know… ;~)
VladTheFluffy says:
Dear Saker
One swallow … etc. but perhaps it may be, as Churchill described El Alamein in one of his speeches, “This is not the end, it is not even the beginning of the end, but it may be the end of the beginning”. That, at least, is a very comforting thought.
Another interesting trend may be on the horizon. The British Daily Telegraph published what may be a quite revealing article: http://goo.gl/n1KEUU . As you well know the Telegraph has long been a mouthpiece of the British establishment, even more so since the British Times was taken over by Murdoch. Note that even though it was written by a correspondent in Kiev, the tone is strangely neutral. There’s no obvious propaganda against Novorussia. Are cracks appearing in the edifice?
There are also rumours that Strelkov is coming back, but this time not in a “headline” position but as a “military consultant” for offensive operations.
There have been many reports about Ukraine’s financial situation, including the drop in the Hryvina. Effectively they are running on fumes. Although CIA drug money can fund large black ops, how long can they fund a full scale civil war? Porkoshenko’s boast that they will invest around $3 billion in the Ukraine military isn’t money that’s coming from Ukraine. How long can the fourth reich carry this corpse when they haven’t the cash to fully complement their own overseas military bases, many of which are described as ghost towns?
There are NO valid arguments against an intervention!
Let us now destroy any “arguments” against such action.
“There will be sanctions if Russia intervenes” – My dear, the sanctions are already upon you if you haven´t noticed, and they will increase whatever you do. So you might as well get something for the “price” you are paying anyway.
“There will be war if Russia intervenes” – No, there will not be open war with the west, they are afraid of you and their interests in Ukraine are not a national priority for any Nato country. They are already at war with you in all other ways except open military confrontation and this is as far as they will go. They have said this repeatedly.
“If Russia intervenes, Ukraine will join Nato” – No they will not, because Nato rules do not admit to take in new members if they are in armed conflict. But Ukraine is alredy joining Nato in all un-official ways, and taking occupied Novorossia into Nato also. Russia must not allow that, at least Novorossia must be kept out of Nato at any cost, because later, if and when fascist Ukraine joins Nato, it will be more difficult to liberate Novorossia!
“The west will stop buying Russian gas and oil” – Yes, they will, but only when it suits them. So why wait for that? Stop selling them gas and oil in stead, before it suits them, before they are prepared, when they will feel pain from not having your gas and oil, not when they are ready for it. The gas and oil export is a Russian weapon, use it as long as it is effective!
“The Ukrainian people does not want a Russian intervention” – There is no “Ukrainian people”. There are the fascists in the west and the Russians and Russian-speakers in Novorossia. The fascists of course are very afraid of an intervention, knowing all the crimes they comitted, but Novorossia is longing for an intervention! Western Ukraine may offer resistance, but the Russian troops should not go to western parts, just liberate Novorossia and Transniestria too.
“The people of Novorossia has not risen” – They have, but Russia let them down (so far). What was Odessa, Mariupol, Kramatorsk? What is the fighting in Donbass now? It is the peoples uprising. Only the strongest and most courageous rise first. You cannot expect the ordinary people to commit suicide when they do not see any Russian help on the horizon. But when the first Russian soldiers come, then you will se an enormous uprising in Novorossia!
“It is a trap to get Russia to war” – No! (and this I said before) The trap is to fool Russia not to intervene, because if Russia intervenes the Kiev hunta will fall and Russia and Novorossia will win quickly. So the trap is to scare Russia not to intervene.
“Russia will be called aggressor” – Russia is already being called aggressor, Russia is always being called aggressor by the west, so what?
“There will be dead Russian soldiers” – Yes, there will be, unfortunately. But there will be many more dead Russian soldiers later if there is not an intervention now!
“The Russian people wants no war” – No-one wants war, but war is upon you already and your only choice is to win! This fact the majority of the Russian people understands very well, and they want to help Novorossia (and thereby themselves). Just look how they cheered when Crimea was liberated.
And last: “Economy is more important than geo-strategy” – Really? Then, just look at the Americans.
You either put the Russian flag in Odessa, Nikolaev, Harkov, Donetsk, Zaporosje, Lugansk, Kherson and Dnepropetrovsk, and Tiraspol, (and even in Kiev!) or you watch the Russian flag fall from the Kremlin!
What do you choose?
Anonymous 17:06,
What the AZ Empire is trying so hard even here to get Russia to do? ;~)
“Russia will be called aggressor” – Russia is already being called aggressor, Russia is always being called aggressor by the west, so what?
==================================
My comment for the whole.
I have enjoyed, very wise words.
Thanks
Croat and Russophile
Larchmonter445
On the language thing. I’ve traveled in the last decade or so to Kiev, Odessa, Nikoliev, Kherson, Lugansk and points in between plus all over Krim and Kherson Oblast. We went to old book shops wherever we were, local markets and the odd hobby shop, plus of course VCO wanted to shop (it’s genetic with women as far as I know, and it’s a good thing VCO is busy with the children and Nora is a ways away with her cast iron skillet after that statement). I have never heard a word of Ukrainian spoken the whole time, either up north or in Krim. The lingua franka at least east of the Dnepr and west to Odessa is Russian. Even officialdom, which from at least 2005 wanted every document I needed for residency translated in to Orkspeak, spoke Russian only and at least in this berg they wanted the documents in Russian also.
The very first law Ork Rada passed while maidan was still burning was to ban the use of Russian. That was a blatant provocation and they got the reaction they wanted, albeit the reaction turned in to a bit more than they expected.
While well over a million citizens of Novorossiya have fled to RF, a surprisingly small number, relatively, have applied for official refugee status. I don’t have the number at my fingertips but if memory serves it is well less than half the total. Reality is probable two millions have fled the area and many of those are in RF staying with family and friends. A good number of citizens of the cities under bombardment have also left the cities to stay with family and friends in less combative areas.
The refugee situation in Krim is being taken care of. I shut my big mouth about our specials and there’s a very good reason for that which I will divulge after the dust settles. There are about 12000 to 15000 refugees in Krim, actual number depending on what document you read on what particular day. Today was the beginning of the transfer of refugees to the mainland. Krim is not equipped to handle that many people with fall and winter coming on. Many of the facilities the refugees are housed in have no heat systems, they are for the summer crowds. The refugees will be settled in mainland Russia. They will be taken to the city that RF chooses (Siberia is not on the list), given jobs commensurate with their education, work history and skills, flats, weekly stipends until they get on their feet, and the children will be registered for school and colleges the moment they arrive. Older people, pensioners, will be taken care of also. No one will be hungry or cold this winter in RF.
Paul II
I am fully aware of the plans US Navy had for School #5 in Radio Ghorka and they also had covetous eyes on the Russian Navy facility across the street from the school, you know, the one that has that nice gentle slope all the way down to the Sea a klick away behind it, slope being in their plans to make a nice little 500 hectare plot of American Suburbia after they demolished all the dachi and summer homes located therein. If US Navy/NATO wants our harbor and city, bring it. See you at the barricades. My wife and I will be two of the thousands who are shooting your ass off at 500 meters.
VladTheFluffy says:
Dear Saker
What Anon 25 August, 2014 17:06 says above has some merits. These two articles: http://goo.gl/J9XNPe and http://goo.gl/wV4oze show that the fourth reich is really desperate for a real war and the lengths it’s prepared to go, no matter what the consequences, or at least to give Russia that clear message. The messages coming out of the poodle pack’s (laughably called European country leaders) mouths are just words coming from the ventriloquist.
Paradoxically this is probably the strongest argument against following this course. I keep on saying it, and will continue to do so if necessary, but some rules of war are inviolate. One is that you never do what the enemy expects and another is you never do want the enemy wants. As Saker has so wisely observed in a previous post, Russia’s imposition of counter-sanctions on countries that imposed sanctions demanded by the fourth reich was a masterclass of timing and execution. The poodle pack will be feeling plenty of heat from their constituents, most of which is concealed by the MSM.
In examining what the enemy wants you to do is very often the key to destroying them. Given the pressure on Vladimir Putin to intervene, my guess is that this rule is a partial explanation for why he hasn’t done so thus far.
Anonymous said…@ 25 August, 2014 17:06
In professional operational advice it is the norm to define terms and context in preface.
For example what is your definition of “intervention”.
The purpose of many of the opponents is to make the intelligence/advice further a pre-planned purpose – predetermination being an impossibility, although fortunately opponents’ behaviours suggest that sometimes opponents seek to transcend this through denial or silence.
Consequently many of the opponents fail to precisely define terms and contexts in preface, and are much given to positing false dichotomies to underpin “their intelligence/advice”.
I was disgusted by the parading of the prisoners. It is in many ways wrong:
– it goes against basic principles of treating others as fellow humans
– it tells the people in West Ukraine that the people in the East are as barbaric as Kiev propaganda would like them to believe they are. You can bet that Poroshenko will be happy with this incident.
– it is a violation of the Geneva Convention. I have seen all the comments that Geneva doesn’t apply: what they miss is that this convention is about how humans should deal with each other in a situation of armed conflict. Such decency should also be strived for in a situation where the Convention strict legally doesn’t apply.
– you can bet that after this show the treatment of captured rebels by the Ukrainian army will deteriorate.
– Some people refer to the Moscow 1994 prisoner parade. What they miss is that that conflict was much more brutal than the conflict in East Ukraine now. In a normal armed conflict this is not acceptable behavior.
– As for the propaganda value: just look in the Western press. You will find general disgust. And they just ignore all those legalistic niceties about Moscow 1944 and the Geneva convention not being applicable.
@WIM ROFFEL: 14:04
Wim, you’re entitled to your opinion. I think you are totally wrong and that your views are shaped by a lack of knowledge and your own emotional set-points.
The people being paraded were Ukie Irregular forces and Interior-Ministry forces at that. The Geneva convention does not apply to internal policing or paramilitary forces. In addition, the people being paraded have MURDERED innocent women, children and elderly by indiscriminate and deliberate targeted shelling – they’ve committed serious war crimes many orders of magnitude graver than simply marching a group of neo-nazi cowards and haters in front of their victims (the civilians of Novorossiya).
Also, you must not lose sight of the fact that the Western MSM (BBC, etc.) have been consistently lying about the military situation in the Donbass: The Western MSM has maintained the propaganda that Ukrainian army was winning and the fall of Donetsk was imminent – A Total Lie. The DNR leadership shrewdly proved to the world that this Western MSM propaganda was a lie by parading the evidence of Ukrainian defeat: captured aggressors of the Ukrainian forces and their shot-up military gear.
Finally, that fat-bastard, Petro Parashenko, had boasted on Aug. 24th, Ukrainian soldiers would be marching down the center of Donetsk in a ‘victory’ parade. So the DNR leadership decided to grant Fat-Bastard’s wish and made it a reality: by marching all those capture Ukrainian Natzi-Guard surrender monkeys thru the middle of Donetsk in the middle of the day on Aug. 24th they made Parashenka’s wish come true (although with an ironic twist that that fathead had not considered). What could possibly be wrong with that? Technically they even marched in a victory parade, too bad for the idiot Ukrainian nazi-wannabees that it happened to be the DNR-Novorossians’ victory parade! Oh well you can’t have everything can you now??
And quiet frankly I don’t think too many people care about the opinion of Europeans that might have been offended by seeing those poor murdering neo-nazis being forced to march as prisoners. Such European citizens are irresponsible and willfully poorly informed, it is because of these lazy-minded types that European Politicians can get away with aiding and abetting war-crimes. It is better to offend these weakwilled coddled sheeple with a display of Ukie prisoners being marched in order to prove to them the truth that their media has been lying to them about an imminent EU/Ukrainian-Junta victory. So if the situation requires that these irresponsible European citizens be offended in order for them to receive the truth then so be it! The truth is worth it.