By Batko Milacic for the Saker Blog
With Russia’s military operation in Ukraine going on for more than a month now, it seems that the Ukrainian army, which has gradually been losing its positions, has an unlimited supply of weapons and ammunition. Does this mean that Zelensky’s government has been smart enough to make huge stockpiles of weapons, and numerous allegations by the Ukrainian opposition and the Russian media about most of the money allocated to Kiev for the rearmament of the Ukrainian armed forces over the past eight years having been stolen simply hold no water? Or, maybe it means that Russian shelling of military warehouses have been absolutely ineffective? No, sir, it only means that Kiev has an ideal and virtually inexhaustible source of arms and ammo.
On March 28, the well-known Bulgarian investigative journalist Dilyana Gaytandzhieva published a detailed analysis of arms supplies to Ukraine, backed up by documents from the Pentagon. As it turned out, most of the weapons and ammunition for the Ukrainian army has been coming from Bulgarian military factories. Small wonder, since the pro-Western Kiev regime has done nothing for the sake of rebuilding the country’s military-industrial complex during the past eight years. Kiev lost its last remaining cartridge-making factory, along with Donetsk, in 2014. However, this did not prevent President Poroshenko and his successor Zelensky from selling their stockpiles of old Soviet-made weapons to countries in Asia and Africa. And all that time, the Ukrainian leaders were making half-hearted attempts to rearm their military according to NATO standards – something they never really succeeded in. As a result, all Ukraine could boast about at the start of the conflict with Russia were old Soviet weapons. Modern warfare requires huge outlays on ammunition, as a single day of war eats up tons of shells, cartridges, mines, etc. Without them, you simply can’t go on fighting.
Luckily for Kiev, however, some NATO and EU countries have preserved the old Soviet-era legacy, above all Bulgaria with its Arsenal, VMZ, Arcus and Emco factories. Sofia has for many years been supplying Soviet-designed weapons to African and Arab countries. Some of these weapons were even sent to anti-government militant groups in Syria.
Even though Bulgaria, which never tires of reiterating its non-participation in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, is making no direct arms deliveries to Kiev, the details of the very unpretentious scheme exposed by Dilyana Gaytandzhiyeva show that Bulgarian weapons are exported to Ukraine via a network of middlemen, namely two Polish companies, “Arm Techsp. Zo.O” and “Vismag Jacek Jakubczyk,” and the Czech firm “Excalibur Army Spol.S.R.O.” Moreover, all information about these “arms deals” is openly available on government websites, which is exactly where Gaytandzhiyeva found it. The problem is, however, that according to international law, weapons can only be re-exported with permission from their country of manufacture, which has never come, at least officially.
As for the Pentagon, which is behind this whole arrangement, it considers such permission just as an empty and unnecessary formality. What really matters is that the Ukrainian buyer – Spetstechnoexport Company – is regularly receiving weapons that are desperately needed by the Ukrainian army. Moreover, this scheme was earlier tested out in Syria where supplying the jihadist rebels with familiar Soviet weapons proved cheaper than arming them with the most advanced US-made weapons. The very same scheme is now at work also in Ukraine.
In spite of all the evidence pointing to the illegal re-export of weapons, the Bulgarian government would certainly prefer to avoid a scandal over military supplies to a de facto warring country, all the more so since its arms manufacturers, who are making money hand over fist, just couldn’t care less about international law. As for Ukraine, the generous supply of arms and ammo it has been getting from Bulgarian gunsmiths will allow it to keep fighting for several more months or weeks, thus increasing the number of victims.
How do bulgarian supplies enter 404? Which country allows passage?
It is predominantly done through Poland and Romania.
It’s as much about profit and loss than win or loss. You can see it as military support, yes, but remember it’s also war profiteering on behalf of the seller, bloodsuckers.
“As for Ukraine, the generous supply of arms and ammo it has been getting from Bulgarian gunsmiths will allow it to keep fighting for several more months or weeks, thus increasing the number of victims.”
Months? Don’t think so. Those weapons wont make any difference, except in some isreali subordinate oligarch bank accounts. The bulgarian abomination was on the wrong side of history during WW2, they repeat their error again.
Russia is now transferring 60,000 troops from the Kiev front to Donbas, while Ukrainians can transfer a maximum of 25,000 troops. So the Ukrainians are already preparing reserve positions near Zaporozhye and Pavlovgrad. When we add Odessa and Kharkiv to that, it is clear that the Russians cannot settle the situation quickly, because in big cities, due to civilians, progress is slow.
They can’t transfer shit to the Eastern front (Ukraine that is) because they don’t have enough equipment and mechanized armor vehicles. They start to move en masses they will be met with precision missiles and attack aircraft.
25,000 troops all moving? Yea right. They would be lit up before they made it. They can form an offensive that far whatsoever. They only have small arms and anti tank with some drones. This war can go as fast aa putin wants it to.
You have no idea what is also coming over the border from Russia. Let’s just say it is a lot more than is being transferred. Ukraine is going to be wipe out in the Donbas.
Mr Kinzhal please meet Bulgarian arms producers.
I agree.
:) I guess it’s old Soviet factories anyway, time to get rid of that junk.
Russia needs to somehow deal a blow to the weapon suppliers ASAP before Ukraine turns into Syria….
They are working on that ….
I liked the article.
I just think it is gettng tough to rearm Ukraine. Supplies are probably being blown up or used up faster than they could possibly be resupplied. Never mind about logistics.
Worlds policemen, or worlds villain?
And is there a new sheriff in town
The whole situation reminds me of Gary Cooper in HIGH NOON (film 1950).
The sheriff Cooper (Putin) is facing attack from several vicious outlaws coming to town to get him.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High_Noon
Very striking parallel.
They ought to play that on Russian TV with an appropriate commentary from the Kremlin.
Germany pledges 150 tanks . Maybe a few other nations chipped in. But not long ago i read they were washing old recruits underwear and giving them out as new kit. Now thats a tight budget.
Sean Penn calls for billionaire to step up and buy aircraft for Ukraine
Actor urges someone to spend $300m on ‘12 aircraft with better tech than Russian MiGs or SU’s’
https://www.theguardian.com/film/2022/apr/01/sean-penn-calls-for-billionaire-to-step-up-and-buy-aircraft-for-ukraine
The man is stark raving bonkers. $300 million dollars would pay for just over two F35’s [providing they did not crash on their way to delivery to Ukraine] without the maintenance and spare parts and the months of pilot training involved. He also threatened to smelt down the Oscars he won if Zenelskiy did not get a speaking slot at the Academy awards, he didn’t, Still waiting for the smelt down. The man is a joke.
He’s just doing what he’s always done, reading from a script.
The old shell game appears alive and well which is standard practice for arms dealers.
Bulgaria needs to be targeted as does Poland.
Perhaps if a Russia missile aimed at UKN rebels or secret NATO facilities accidentally went astray and hit a Bulgarian arms factory (the ones supplying ammo to UKN) Moscow could issue bewildered apologies.
Another thing that could happen is an old Russian satellite in orbit unexpectedly decays fast and lands on one of the Bulgarian ammo factories supplying UKN.
A lot things being just plain bad luck could happen in Bulgaria I suspect.
Funny as a joke, but wouldn’t actually work. Sats aren’t exactly aerodynamic, and neither are their thrusters (or fuel) designed for pinpoint landfall. You could make them go down in a designated area, but not hit a specific building.
No need for apologies, they could just say it was a technical mistake.
Like NATOs precision bombing of Chinas embassy in Beograd. Shit happens.
My oral history and family name is Polish, but my genetic test put me in Sofia Bulgaria. I could be a throwback to Old Great Bulgaria, which in the 630’s was centered right around the Sea of Azov.
So then the question should be asked what will Russia’s response be to these countries directly aiding in the killing and wounding of Russian soldiers. I can tell you what it should be at least. Criminal charges being made on the people involved in that,and warrants offered for their apprehension.Along the same lines as the old “dead or alive” posters.Those killed resisting arrest will be a shame of course (sarcasm),but the others would then be tried and punished severely under the law.If done diligently,the word will spread,and fewer companies will involve themselves in that type of thing. While at the same time some needed jobs in Siberia will be staffed by a whole new group of multi-national workers.I’d call that a win-win for Russia.
I read today the Ukraine has British Star Streak missiles. Mach 3.5 man portable missile, which cannot be defeated with countermeasures. No cooldown time. Laser guided, with 3 penetrator warheads that spin in a 1.5 meter circle.
Devastating!
Basically a Man-portable No Fly Zone.
[link to en.wikipedia.org (secure)]
what are you smoking? M 3.5 launch from a shoulder device? do you know the amount of kinetic energy needed to get it to that speed and how big it has to be to overcome air resistance? how big is this sucker? an Iskander from one’s shoulder?
When used in the light or MANPADS role, the Starstreak missile is transported in a sealed launch tube. This tube is attached to an aiming unit for firing. The operator tracks the target using the aiming unit’s optically stabilized sight. The process of tracking the target allows the aiming unit to compute the right trajectory to bring the missile together with the target. The operator can indicate wind direction to the unit and, in the case of a long-range target, provide superelevation.[clarification needed] When the initial tracking is complete, the operator fires the missile by pressing a button.[6]
The missile then fires the first-stage rocket motor; this launches the missile from the tube but burns out before leaving the tube to protect the operator. Four metres (thirteen feet) away from the operator, when the missile is at a safe distance, the second stage fires. This rapidly accelerates the missile to a burn-out velocity exceeding Mach 4. As the second stage burns out, three dart sub-munitions are released.
The dart housing is made from a tungsten alloy. The darts are each 396 millimetres (15.6 in) long, 22 millimetres (0.87 in) in diameter, and about 900 grams (32 oz) in mass. Around half the weight of each dart – approximately 450 g (16 oz) – is its explosive charge, detonated by a delayed-action, impact-activated fuse.[6] Each dart consists of a rotating fore-body, with two canard fins, attached to a non-rotating rear assembly with four fins. The rear assembly of each dart also houses the guidance electronics including a rearwards facing sensor.
The darts do not home in on laser energy reflected from the target; instead, the aiming unit projects two laser beams which paint a two-dimensional matrix upon the target. The lasers are modulated, and by examining these modulations the sub-munitions sensor can determine the dart’s location within the matrix. The dart is then steered to keep it in the centre of the matrix. The sub-munitions steer by briefly decelerating the rotating fore-body with a clutch. The front wings then steer the missile in the appropriate direction. The three sub-munitions fly in a formation about 1.5 metres (4.9 ft) in radius, and have enough kinetic energy to manoeuvre to meet a target evading at 9 g at 7,000 metres (23,000 ft).[6
definition of vaporware
The reason why constructor made missile with 3 submunitions is that one warhead guided with overly complicated system could not hit the target at all.
Attempt to use laser guided missile on airplane is fools errand. Distance and speed are too big to maintain reliable lock on moveable target in variable atmospheric condition. Double laser matrix on multi km range? Really?
I am sure it works perfectly in computer simulation. Or in vacuum.
Another overengineered weapon like Javelin.
It is virtually impossible to conclude if Ukrainian military depleted it’s ammo or not after only one month of war. Luckily, we have aftemath from similar war not so long ago. Bombing campaign against Yugoslavia ’99 showed that Yugoslav military depleted its AA missiles after two and half months and almost all ammo for AA guns at the end of the war.
That means Ammo stockpiles were enough for, say, 100 days of non-stop fight. Destruction of number of weapons cashes is predictable,and normal in war, so starting figure is at least doubled.
Yugoslavia had its own ammo production, but no import. Ukraine is just the opposite. Which is bigger factor is impossible to say.
But it is safe to assume that Ukraine stockpiled ammo for MORE than 3 months of war. After only 1 month, ammo is (still) not an issue. On average.
In encircled cauldron’s it can be, depending of multiple factors. Food supply can be much bigger problem for Ukraine military, than ammo.
It is way to early to draw conclusion on the topic.
There is an interesting detail about this arms story: it has been happening for years that “accidents” happen at ukrainian ammunition and weapon warehouses and they burn down quite frequently.
What obviously happens is that the ukrainian warehouses get looted, their contents get sold on the black market, and then they get burned down to hide that they are nearly empty. That is also why Zelensky is constantly requesting new supplies (the other is to ensure that NATO countries get drawn in and so fight the russians).
From the reporting, the oil refineries and depots have been severely damaged by Russian air and missile attacks. I was wondering how does the AFU maintain any mobility, They should be running very low on fuel by now.