https://southfront.org/what-war-between-the-united-states-and-iran-could-look-like/
The US-Iranian standoff in the Persian Gulf has once again entered an acute phase. On April 22, US President Donald Trump announced that he had ordered the US Navy to “shoot down and destroy” Iranian gunboats that follow or harass US ships. In response, Commander-in-chief of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps, Major General Hossein Salami declared on April 23 that Iran will provide a swift, “decisive” and “effective” response to US forces if they threaten Iranian “vessels or warships”.
One of the reasons behind the escalation is the consistent and strengthening anti-Iranian rhetoric of the White House as a part of Trump’s presidential campaign. Another driving force of the US actions is likely the sharpening global economic crisis and the turmoil on the energy market that has led to the dramatic collapse of oil prices. Indeed, a new conflict in the Persian Gulf could theoretically return the oil prices to $50-60 per barrel.
In the current situation, Iran is not interested in an escalation of the conflict with the United States. The escalation could, however, be instigated by the US military:
- A warship or a group of warships could enter Iranian territorial waters;
- A US military aircraft could violate Iranian airspace;
- US forces could block for Iran the civilian maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, or detain an Iranian oil tanker;
- Warships of the US Navy could imitate an attack on an Iranian submarine;
Iranian forces would have to respond to such a provocation. Thus, a military confrontation could start. After initiating a localized military incident, the White House would accuse Iran of aggressive actions against US forces and the US navy could carry out a demonstrative missile strike on a target or several targets inside Iran. Such an attack would prompt an Iranian response that would involve both its regular and irregular warfare capabilities.
The IRGC Navy doctrine reflects irregular warfare principles that include the use of surprise, deception, speed, flexibility and adaptability, decentralization and highly mobile and maneuverable units, all of which are used at sea. These include hit-and-run style surprise attacks or the amassing of large numbers of means and measures to overwhelm the enemies’ defenses. In this scenario the employed naval forces might be described as a mosquito-like swarm of small boats using their size and maneuverability to track and hunt down enemy warships.
The IRGCN’s mosquito-fleet concept enables rapid formation of tactical groups of small crafts to carry out a surprise strike at any given time from different directions in a particular area of the offshore zone. Such groups can deploy in attack formation immediately prior to reaching the area of the attack.
Crafts from the formation reach their assault line position either independently or in small groups. This is the way the Iranian Navy would employ the swarm concept. It is important to note the high motivation and ideological training of the mariners involved, who well understand the high level of threat to them personally in the event of the employment of this tactical scheme. IRGCN personnel are motivated and ready to accomplish any feat to defend their homeland. This factor (the high motivation of the personnel) makes a mosquito-fleet armed with missile, torpedo and anti-air weapons especially dangerous to naval forces of the US.
Th aircraft carriers and large warships of the US naval group would become the main priority target of the Iranian response. In the event that the Iranian attack succeeds, the US would have to carry out a massive strike on Iranian infrastructure objects or political and military command centers. Teheran would have either to accept their defeat in this limited confrontation or to respond with another attack on US forces in the region.
Current US military doctrine dictates the prior employment of mobile interoperable forces, unmanned and robotized systems, as well as massive strikes with high precision weapons in conjunction with the maximum usage of electronic warfare and information warfare. If the confrontation develops further the US would be forced to conduct a limited landing operation on key parts of the Iranian coast. The success of such a limited operation under the likely condition of a strong Iranian military response is improbable. Furthermore, the move would be hampered by the weak psychological condition of US service members caused by current developments inside the US.
The US military would have to either retreat or venture on to a large-scale military operation in the Persian Gulf region. If the number of forces involved does not allow Washington to deliver a devastating blow to Iran within 1-2 weeks, China or Russia could intervene in some form likely turning the military standoff into a frozen conflict.
It is likely that despite all difficulties, the US would be able to create an occupation zone inside Iran, likely in the coastal area near the Strait of Hormuz. The Iranian oil trade would be fully blocked and the US shale industry would be rescued. At the same time, Washington would have to deal with a permanent insurgency in the occupied area.
Another possible scenario is the defeat of the United States in this limited conflict because of significant losses in warships, aviation and service members of the involved interoperable forces. In this case, US influence in the region would be drastically undermined and the White House would start drawing up plans of revenge.
I’ve been worrying about SF for many months. This is clear indication that they have lost it.
The last four paragraphs are inane.
The US objective is to crush the Iranian government. To do that, they would decimate the military of Iran.
To prevent retaliation by the proxies of Iran in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and the Gulf States and Saudi Arabia, the US will also hit whatever formations, HQ and depots are important to short circuit the asymmetrical counterstrikes.
Nearly all those strategic targets will be missile and guided bomb targets.
72-96 hours and it will be over. US and Israeli F-35s can stand off 100-200 miles and do the job.
Air and sea-based cruise missiles can be hundreds of miles away and deliver their arsenals.
There is no reason for US to put a single boot on the ground. No US ships or boats need be close to Iran.
Thus, Iran only has the US bases in the region as possible targets. Presuming the US strikes first, Iran will have few premium targets to counter strike. They may get off a volley of large missiles in the first hours, but not much later. The US doctrine will be to totally crush the Iranian military in hopes of regime change.
Problem there is that we’ve already seen in syria that those same missles can be intercepted and do no damage, so starting a conflict that goes public would only lead to embarrassment for the military, and they dont really need any moore embarrassments at this late hour. So its really not over except on paper and funding, those depts will remain open for business.
As for actual war, not going to happen, the plate is full, the coffers are empty, and the war instead is a domesticated economic one.
So basically no “occupation zone inside Iran, likely in the coastal area near the Strait of Hormuz”…? (Second to last paragraph)
@Larchmonter
If the US military launches missile attacks on Iran, Israel might just be wiped off the map as a consequence.
As I indicated, the US will engage with all Iranian proxies. They aren’t going to allow Hezbollah and the PMUs in Iraq and whoever else has a missile capability to launch at will.
If you start out with the notion that the US and Israel lose, then no point arguing.
It is far more likely should the US launch an attack, it won’t be small. It will dwarf whatever the US has ever done anywhere before. Trump will insist on certain victory. His mindset has been influenced by the Jews in his life, his son-in-law, Bibi, his daughter-in-laws, many of his closest friends, Mossad, rabbis, et al. Then you have his nearness to Dominionists like Mike Pence. Evangelicals talk to Trump all the time.
If the CENTCOM war plan calls for 3000 Tomahawk missiles, Trump will demand they fire 5000. If the plan calls for 1000 guided bombs, he will demand 2000 guided bombs. Trump believes that the military doesn’t know how to win wars. He will push them to an excessive campaign. He will not want to limit them in any way.
Furthermore, the Israeli military and Mossad will help shape the total war plan. They will demand and get targets hit in Lebanon and Syria and Iraq.
Why people think Iran and its allies will do well in such a war is beyond me. No one will go unscathed. But the US will accomplish its goal.
does Iranknow this or are the asleep at their wheel?
will Iran sit and wait to take thsi massive attack, which is as certain as it is argued above, big, huge, decisive on the part of the USA?
In fact I think the US attack will be even bigger that here argued..might even include nuclear. that attack will certainly include nuclear if Iran goes after Israel before the USA wipes them out
I see the sakers argument about Iranian asymetrical warfare that pains a picture or Iran I did not expect..as a limited military with mosquito swarms and so on..an enfeebled nation taking on a mighty nation if even that mighty nationis ideologically troubled and weak at this point.
the Impression I have had for some time now is that Iran is more formidable militarily than the impression created by the Saker in the lead
the Saker and Larchmonter live in the USA dont they? I hope that fact isn’t affecting their judgement and balance relatively. if it comes to war I do expect the americans to respond overwhelmingly. but I do expect that the Iranians can do a great deal of damage on their very own to USA/Israeli interests
That is an important point, Ben.
Arguments like Larchmonter445’s assume that the Iranians have no imagination and no appreciation of the art of war. He assumes that they will fight any war exactly the way the Americans (and the Israelis) expect them to fight.
Basically, that the Iranians will fire off missiles in all directions but otherwise just sit back and “take it on the chin” as the USAF and the IDF pummel their infrastructure from 200 miles offshore.
Why, exactly, should anyone expect the Iranians to do that? Why would they do exactly what the USA wants them to do, in precisely the manner that ensures the USA will make very short work of them?
Isn’t it prudent to assume that they will do something completely out of left-field i.e. something designed to upset the American Apple Cart so that the USA ends up reacting *to* their moves rather than vice-versa.
Because – and let’s be honest here – covid-19 shows that US decision-making falls to pieces when faced with unexpected setbacks.
Here, a simple way of upsetting all the well-laid plans: mobilize 500,000 men and march them around the gulf into Saudi Arabia.
Whenever I have mentioned this I have been ridiculed: THAT’S CRAZY!!! What on earth are you smoking???The USAF would easily monster that invading force and destroy it from the air!!!
Hello……. There is only one USAF.
It is either launching precision missiles into Iran from 200 miles away, or it is running tactical ground support from zero feet in support of badly-outnumbered ground forces. But it won’t be doing both.
So even if the **only** thing that tactic achieves is to force the USAF to concentrate on close-support ground-attack then that will be a worthwhile tactic, because *every* sortie in support of their meagre ground forces is going to represent one *less* sortie against Iran.
Not to mention, of course, that you can’t run close-ground-support sorties from 200 miles away. You have to get close. And that allows the Iranians to shoot back.
Simply put: I do NOT except the Iranians to do what the USA expects, and especially not when they have one enormous advantage over the USA: *they* have an army in-theatre, and *Trump* doesn’t.
Larchmonter, whatever the US will do to Iran, Iran will do to the US. Not a single US base will be left standing, and neither would the 5th fleet. It’ll all be gone too. Iran will take thousands of US troops hostage when the PMU’s storm the Al-Asad, Taji and Balad bases. We’ve seen this movie before in Lebanon 2006.
What we will see is a missile war. Iran has missiles. The US has missiles.
I think the US will prevail. The bases may be evacuated and men and machines gone.
The US has the initiative. Second strike counters are very difficult to reverse what the aggressor can do.
I don’t doubt Iran can inflict some harm on US bases and on Israeli cities.
I just don’t think it will be determinative.
This is theoretical arm chair brain-storming, which for me is really based on Trump, how he thinks, what he needs, his potential reaction to an opportunity to strike Iran.
“What we will see is a missile war. Iran has missiles. The US has missiles.”
Iran also has a very large standing army in-theatre. The USA has not.
Why do you expect Iran is going to be content with a missile-war when
a) Iran can make it into a ground war
b) The USA can not.
Your argument is akin to insisting that we are going to indulge in a knife-fight because everyone knows that you have a knife and I have a knife sooooo…. a knife-fight it will be.
And all the while I’m thinking: Gosh! I’m also carrying a gun, and you aren’t….
I’m with Larchmonter445 here, the USA will want to emulate its great successes such as Libya & Yugoslavia.
Only enough American blood need be spilt to enrage the proles back home. That is the purpose of the bases in Iraq, and the minor vessels around the gulf – sacrifices, bait.
To counter this Iran & allies must be willing & able to devastate soft targets such as water sources & glass cities. The USA will certainly not hold back from such targets if Serbia is any benchmark.
The reason the DPRK is still autonomous is not because of any direct threat to the US mainland or military but because of the devastation it can inflict on US regional allies.
The “best” time for the empire to escalate may be soon, while oil is less a factor and the prospect of extending a presidential term under the auspices of war are a prospect.
antitermite
“the USA will want to emulate its great successes such as Libya & Yugoslavia”. Indeed. The NATO air campaign against the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (Serbia and Montenegro) lasted 78 days. The Serbs shot down 137 NATO aircraft and 25 helicopters, and this included one F-117 stealth bomber and one B-2 stealth bomber. I don’t know how many cruise missiles were shot down.The hospitals in Albania were full of NATO and Albanian wounded. The Serbs achieved this with basically old Russian AA systems. The only reason NATO “won” was due to political pressure on President Milosevic of Serbia. The opinion today is that he should have continued with his defiance, as in the end only American and Turkish pilots were flying, all the other having given up.
Trump attacked Syria on two occasions. During the first attack against that Syrian airfield, the US Navy fired two waves of Tomahawk cruise missiles. During the first wave, 30 Tomahawks were fired. One misfired, while the remaining 29 Tomahawks were misdirected by the Russian Khirbiny jamming system. Not one missile struck the airfield. During the second wave, the Russians did not use the Khirbiny, wanting to see the efficiency of the Tomahawks. The Syrians used their AA systems. Not a single Tomahawk struck the runway. A few Tomahawks struck two hangers housing old combat aircraft being serviced, while others struck either the ground around the runways, or else villages killing civilians.
During the second attack against Syria, the Syrians shot down (as far as I remember), 71 cruise missiles and aerial bombs and capturing another two which failed to explode. The damage to Syrian military infrastructure was minimal, being almost non existant.
A war against Iran ? Not impossible, it being dictated by the economic and financial situation in the US. However, such a war would be very foolish, and for the following reasons: (1) US military bases in Iraq and Syria would become targets, (2) US warships would become targets, (3) Iran could close the Strait of Hormuz, and the consequences would be immense for oil exports, (4) Israel and Saudi Arabia would become targets, especially Saudi oil fields, (5) The political consequences for the US on the international scene would be immense, and this would include Europe, which is none too pleased that the US applied pressure on it to implement sanctions against Iran.
The US capturing Iranian territory in the Strait of Hormuz ? Laughable. The US military cannot function without air superiority, as proven in World War Two and in all the wars after 1945. How could a US force land in Iran without air superiority, bearing in mind the size of the Iranian conventional military ? Any US combat plane shot over Iran would mean either the death or capture of the crew. An efficient Naval backup would be impossible.
When it comes to Iran, the US has two options. Either a nuclear option (an insane course of action), or else an air campaign, which would have questionable success, bearing in mind the “success” of the US against the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia and Syria. Whatever military course of action the US applies against Iran, one thing is certain. The price the US would pay on the international political scene would be immense.
Let me give you examples from the world of boxing.
Cassius Clay vs Sonny Liston and Muhammed Ali vs George Foreman.
The first were two fights with the very young Clay and the deadly heavyweight slugger Liston. Liston virtually never landed a punch on Clay in either fight. In the first fight, Clay was too fast and elusive. In the second fight, Liston got close and got knocked out with a six-inch karate punch on the button of the chin that dropped Liston’s head to his chest and floored the beast of a man. No one thought Clay could beat the man in either fight except people who understood that Liston was a punching bag for Clay’s lightning hand speed and elusive feet. The people who were shocked by the results had projected Liston’s punching power into an entirety of skills he did not possess.”How could such a strong man be knocked out?” Simple: he was an easy target to hit.
The Foreman fight again misjudged strengths and weaknesses. Foreman was strong, had more skills than Liston but had never confronted a Rope-a-dope tactic Ali displayed. He allowed Foreman to expend all his energy and speed, punching on Ali’s arms and body. Then Ali countered with precision punches and knocked out the unbeatable opponent.
People could not understand how Ali could win a fight by allowing an opponent who was younger and stronger to beat on him for half an hour. He trained for it. He inflated his stomach muscles to deflect the punches. And he kept his head from being hit. Then, all he had to do is pick the round where Foreman’s punches lacked power, signaling Foreman’s fatigue. And Pow! Victory.
The lessons? Know your opponent’s strengths. Defeat his strengths with tactics easy for you. Victory is inevitable.
The Iranians can hurt the US bases. However, unless the Iranians launch first, they will find that when the US attacks them, those bases will be near empty. Just as all the naval vessels will be out of range of Iran’s ship-killing missiles.
Iran will also suffer EW impacts. They will be without communication networks, radars, electrical grids, etc.
The US will have them like Ali had Foreman, spent. Easy to KO.
The Iranians are like Liston, hoping the US would stand in place so they can knock him down. But the US will be elusive like Clay, not stationary.
Having a big offensive punch (Iran) still requires defense. Iran may have some missile defenses, but the US will be spoofing with decoy missiles, drones, and hacked electronics.
I know many people here think I am anti-Iran. Not so. I just do not think they can win in a major conflict with the US/Israel. And they will be set back 20 years if it erupts. I don’t want to see Iran go backwards.
Iran is too important for Eurasia to lose in a senseless war.
There is not only a grave overestimation of Iranian military capability among some people, but a grave underestimation of the US ability to inflict calamitous damage on a nation.
Two things I want to make abundantly clear: I do not want to see Iran pulverized. I do not want to hand the Hegemon and Israel a victory.
I hope the Iranians will listen to President Putin and devise a “defense” that prevents war.
Larchmonter445
I never stated that Iran would not get hurt in a potential military confrontation with the US. Yes, it would see part of it’s infrastructure destroyed, because in military confrontations the US makes no difference between civilian and military targets, like during the 1999 NATO attack against the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, which was attacked without declaration of war, when civilian targets were struck, like TV Serbia, when 16 journalists were killed (The International Tribunal For The Former Yugoslavia in the Hague never brought charges against NATO, and legal experts can claim that this makes the Tribunal complicit in NATO crimes; I trust the Tribunal has not forgotten the Nuremberg Tribunal and the Judges Trial against Nazi judges.).
Yes, the US can withdraw troops from it’s illegal bases in Iraq. It can also withdraw troops from it’s illegal bases in Syria. It can also withdraw it’s ships, which would then fire cruise missiles from a “safe” distance. US bombers, like the antiquated B-52 could do the same, ie. fire missiles from a “safe” distance (just to point out that one Tomahawk cruise missile cost’s more than a million dollars.). However, could all of this work ?
Nobody really knows Iran’s military potential, with the possible exception of Russia, from whom Iran has been purchasing weapon’s. Do we really know what Iran bought from Russia ? Iran also has an impressive domestic ‘military-industrial complex’, if one can call it that. For example, it has produced a long range AA missile system which look’s suspiciously like Russia’s S-300 missile system. A few days ago it launched it’s first military satellite. As I mentioned above, in a military confrontation Iran’s targets would be US military bases in Iraq and Syria, US ships within range of Iran’s missiles, targets in Saudi Arabia and Israel, while any US landing on Iran’s territory in the Strait of Hormuz would be out of the question.
Therefore, is a US led war against Iran possible ? Unfortunately it is possible, not only because of Iran’s oil and gas deposits, but also because of it’s geopolitical position and entry into the Euro-Asian Economic Union.
However, such a war would have devastating economic and geopolitical consequences. I wonder if the Washington political establishment is fully aware of this.
If such a massive attack….would there be time for Russian intelligence to pick it up and warn its friends? Can it pick up smaller individual missiles sufficiently?
Russia can wipe out any nation on earth within 18 minutes – there won’t be a problem .
Unannounced movement of US personnel out of bases in Iraq and Syria will be noticed locally.
Already civilians are blocking US movements in Syria.
The US starts shooting unarmed civilians to evacuate?
There will be no path to a moral victory for the US.
Israel has some 200 nukes.
During the first hour of those 72-96 hours stand off attack on Iran from US and Israel, thousands of missiles will rain on Israel from Hezbollah, Syria, Gaza and “other locations”. Iran and its allies will definitely target naval and land based US targets around them, but their main strategy is to hold Israel hostage. This will also entail Hezbollahs incursions into northern Israel and the Golan. Palestinian incursions from Gaza and possibly the West Bank.
This stranglehold posture will continue to squeeze until Israel demands the US to stop its attacks on Iran, ask the Russians and the Chinese to mediate and find a way to negotiate. This will be the best outcome. The worst would be the use of nuclear weapons and the all bets are off scenarios that would follow. Although Israel is known to have nuclear weapons, I would not bet that other middle eastern countries (not referring to Pakistan) do not have secret nuclear stockpiles or can quickly put some together.
In the meantime, there will be other squeezes against US and other allies in the region. Below are just samples;
– Taliban and other factions take over of Afghanistan and kicking out of US troops
– Massive Yemeni land attack on Saudi Arabia from the south
– Take over of all US bases in Iraq
– Take over of US bases in Syria
– Massive Shiite uprising in Eastern Saudi Arabia
– Targeting and destruction of major cities such as Dubai and oil and gas infrastructure along the Persian Gulf
– Overturn of Bahrain Sunni Monarch, and Shiite control of the Island and kicking out of the US fleet.
– Hezbollahs take over of Lebanon
Maybe the closure of Strait of Hormuz, destruction of oil and gas infrastructure and the subsequent rise in oil prices could be the only positive outcome seeing how low oil prices are now. Positive for Russia and US shale oil companies.
Correct. The resistance axis of Iran led Shia nations have millions of volunteers. Hundreds of thousands are already paramilitary trained. Iran will invade the GCC, if their bases are used against Iran by the US. Nothing will be left of any US presence in the Persian Gulf. The US does not have the forces on the ground/ in theater to counter Iran, barring the use of tactical nukes.
anon, i have a feeling that there is a lot of resistance axis sleeper cells in the imperial homeland.. The oil fields and electrical grid will probably be attacked asap if the orange zionist goy attack Iran..
Just as the US will activate their terrorist cells inside Iran, Iran seems to have better protection of their turf tho.
Remember that the entire el-grid in the US is easy to destroy, i read that taking out 10 points will be enough to make most of the US go dark + most of the US grid is outdated like the rest of their infrastructure.
Researching how to take down the US grid is easy, lots of people have sounded that alarm and there is a ton of articles about it online. I certainly believe IRCG and Iran know this to.
“There is no reason for US to put a single boot on the ground.”
There are no worthwhile boots on the ground anywhere within the region of the Persian Gulf, except for Iran’s.
The Saudi’s are worthless.
The Kuwaiti’s likewise.
The other Gulf principalities? Laughable.
And the USA simply doesn’t have any boots there worth counting.
So I can pick out one very good reason why the USA would be forced to put boots on the ground.
It is this: the Iranians could mobilize half-a-million well-armed and superbly-motivated troops and order them to sweep around the Gulf and not stop until they have that entire shoreline under their control.
What would stop them, other than US boots hurriedly assembled and frantically-deployed?
The first rule of war: hit ’em where they ain’t.
The F35s are useless – The US would just be humiliated – the very reason they are not starting any wars lately.
Russia – Iran and the SAA wiped out 200 thousand ISIS in Syria and there was nothing the US or Israel could do about it.
I haven’t visited this site recently’ but can’t believe how naive you seem to have become – Venezuela was the Zions/US ‘Waterloo’ – they are simply now a laughing stock.
@ Larchmonter445
I am surprised not to see the wider prospect in any kind of war scenario between the Anglo and Iran.
IMHO the US doctrine from the fall of USSR up to now has been and still is based upon the Wolfowitz doctrine.
“Our first objective is to prevent the re-emergence of a new rival, either on the territory of the former Soviet Union or elsewhere, that poses a threat on the order of that posed formerly by the Soviet Union. This is a dominant consideration underlying the new regional defense strategy and requires that we endeavor to prevent any hostile power from dominating a region whose resources would, under consolidated control, be sufficient to generate global power.”
That is not new doctrine.
Only a post cold war revamping of the Anglo-Zio-Western Imperialist doctrine.
At this stage of world systemic reconfiguration and big power tensions. It is hard to see how China and Russie would not be involved one way or another.
Russia intervened in Syria.
Iran would only be higher stake.
Speaking about wide scale war without computing the wider context seems nonsensical.
@An . . .
“At this stage of world systemic reconfiguration and big power tensions. It is hard to see how China and Russia would not be involved one way or another.”
Neither Russia nor China have national interests so deep that they would fight alongside Iran. What they will do and are doing is offering support diplomatically, economically and militarily with weapons systems and defensive systems and whatever munitions the Iranians might need.
Russia entered Syria in its own national interests which coincided with the nearing collapse of Syria as a nation-state. It is in Russia’s security interests to kill terrorists in Syria and not have them return to Russia or the USSR states and then have to fight them locally. Also, Russia has a Mediterranean port access in Tartus. It entered with a operational strategy to supply air power and General Staff management, air defenses, and training Syrian troops. That was putting a toe in the fight, not even a whole boot, much less some significant force size.
China has sent logistical support to Syria. It never sends troops anywhere unless they are blue helmets of the UN. It has some security units in South Sudan, a base in Djibouti, a few security units in Iraq where the oil fields are under contract to China in a few places.
China hasn’t even sent troops to guard the CPEC corridor in Pakistan. The Pakistanis have to use their troops to guard against AQ and ISIS (paid for by CIA to disrupt the development.)
Though the three look to be “allies”, they are very far from military allies. They have a common adversary, the USA. But only Russia and China coordinate in their effort. Russia and Iran coordinate somewhat in Syria. But these are far from “defending Iran” should the US wage a war against Iran.
Russia and China will be ready to help the Iranians pick up the pieces.
Iran has proxy allies. It has no national allies.
that analysis makes sense as it is a report on thngs actually are. it is not logical that Russian and China got to war if Iran is attacked. it is indeed in all of our collective interest that Russia and China help to ensure that Iran can fight back, causing the americans as much grief as possible..that Iran can indeed cause the unravellng of the fabric of the american nation
my concern is that this thread began with the dismissal of Iran as sort sort of nuisance in the mix, capable of insect bites as the USA pounded then into the dust. I have been convinced that after 40 years revolutionary years the Iranains are stronger than that and can cause the americans real pain in a war..and nothing I have seen so far turns me away from that conclusion
what evidence is there that Iran is little but a mosquito bite militarily to the americans?
what evidence is there also that Iran is formidable enough to inflick real pain on both the USA and its Israel proxy in that region?
if for eg, the Iranians can lauch satelites into space successfully..to the moon is it..why are they incapable of defending Iran beyond a 200 mile limit from shore to sea..or around their maritime borders?
the first insurance from that kind of scientific ability that can lauch satelites into space, that can travel considerable distances, would be to apply some to their weapons/missile array, to be able reach wherever they need to, on planet Earth. I dont know the science involved and its transfer to weapons..but surely that cant be impossible or insurmountable if they can send satelites into space
this appears relevant also to Iranian submarines. I have read where the Iranains do have submarines..so can these travel the oceans-wide and long..travel the 7-seas? if the Iranians can use their satelite technology for submarine missiles then Iran can attack america directly, from the seas..underneath the waters of the Atlantic and Pacific.
how many submarines do the Iranians have in service?
so what is the real Iranain military capability then..what can they do in retaliation to american attack by all means they may posses?
who can render an unbiased opinion, clear sighted and useful?
my bias? I love the Iranian revolution and it would not would be in the best interest of humanity if the revolutionary Iranian nation is destroyed.
on the opposite side I dont like America for the most part, and will never live there despite the amount of Black americans there are..given that I am a Black man myself. I am not calling for the destrucion of America but the end of the USA as the monster state, Hegemon and threat to all life on planet Earth. and all and every nation that develops the means to deter and stop the Hegemon militarily, contributes to the end of the monster state and its rapacious policies on the people of the world
“China hasn’t even sent troops to guard the CPEC corridor in Pakistan.”
Not true. There are Chinese troops in Gwadar. You can look up atimes for articles, or if the Saker wishes, I can dig up and post.
A war between the US and Iran would not be a war between equals. More like a war between the blue bloods at Yale w/ backing of USAF versus the USSR circa WWII. One side has all the equipment but the other side has the will to survive.
Watching the dog and pony circus going on right now with coronavirus and financial meltdown, I do not see how the US could survive in any recognizable form once casualties started. Factor in the crybabies in Jerusalem – self promoting myths aside, doubt any of them would survive a paper cut – and this is a recipe for disaster.
And then we have the Orange One to consider. He still thinks international diplomacy is done by making outrageous claims with nothing to back them up, then changing 180 degrees the following day.
I have no doubt the US could inflict terrible damage to Iran, but remember this, Iran is composed of Iranians just as Syria is composed of Syrians. The US and Israel are composed of flakes with no allegience to anything but their own satisfaction. If the US were to inflict massive damage on Iran, I am sure that ancient nation could find a way to inflict enough damage on the US to wreck our financial system and destroy what little is left of our national fabric.
After all is said and done Iran would still be Iran but the US would be no more.
Just my opinion.
The threat will be to shoot at Tel Aviv.
Here is why you are totally in the wrong head space, your head is full of US exceptionalism………At least 30 Iranian guided missiles hit Al Asad Air Base in Iraq, home of the United States Air Force and largest base in Iraq. The pentagon now admits 109 casualties, there are many dead and the cover up is a disgrace.
The US deployed multiple batteries of Patriot Missiles to the base in May in case of such an attack. America’s air defense ships in the Persian Gulf stood down, no AEGIS or Patriot protection for 5000 US troops stranded in Iraq by Trump’s criminal insanity. With US forces on high alert, and billions of US air defense equipment on site we do not have one video of an incoming missile taken down when ballistic missiles are supposed to be the easiest to intercept.
Here is the true reality…….If Trump retaliated the US troops would of been slaughtered. This is how Iranians saved Iraq from the Western backed terrorists. They put their lives on the line for Iraq and saved the country, that is why Iranians in Iraq are heroes, And that is why Trump murdered these Generals, and ISIS celebrated.
The truth is that Trump threatened to murder the PM of Iraq, ordered the Marines to murder protesters and ordered the murder of Soleimani while he was on a peace mission. Crimes don’t get worse than this. The death of the top CIA officer Mike D’Andrea “Prince of Darkness” involved in the US assassination of prominent Iranian General Qassem Soleimani is justice served.
As the Iraqi Prime Minister explained……..After my return from China, Trump called me and asked me to cancel the agreement, so I still refused, and he threatened me with massive demonstrations that would topple me. Indeed, the demonstrations started and then Trump called, threatening to escalate in the event I did not cooperate and do as he asked.
This is what led to the US Attacks on Iraqi Military and PMU Hundreds of Miles from the “Incident” at K1 base. The attack Trump claims to be retaliating against was against an Iraqi base, not an American base, an attack by ISIS where an American oil worker was killed on an Exxon oil facility…where oil has been stolen from Iraq for years. This is Trump escalating the situation in Iraq as he threatened to do.
The base which was attacked housed not just Iraqi regulars but PMF units, who were also attacked, the same units Trump says staged the attack. The attack was using a Romanian built 122mm rocket, that was supplied to ISIS by the US. The BBC admits that the K1 base housed PMF militias who were there to protect K1 from ISIS. Trump used his ISIS proxies to escalate by attacking K1. Trump then bombed PMU forces in northern Iraq who were actually fighting ISIS which then led to the US embassy being attacked, Trump then escalated further by murdering General Qassem Soleimani in the most despicable way possible
Impeach him and present him to the Hague….To all those people who support Trump, you are no better than he is.
In theory perhaps.
But russian satellites – and now one recent iranian satellite of their own – are vigilant all around the skies.
It would be easy to see and to reach a conclusion of any large amassing of planes and forces 300 miles from Iran.
It s just enough to take a precaution move that shows the enemy that its surprise factor is nt anylonger possible. Putin did that in Oct 2013 when the pentagon was gathering forces in the mediterranean around Assad for a strike. The strike was aborted and the empire turned furious – and prepared with success a coup in Kiev four months later, remember?
The coup was sucessful but moscow prevented its completion by controling Crimea in a few days thus blocking the plan to cut the only russian door (Bosphorus) to the mediterranean.
The analysis overlooked the fact that any US attack against Iran would not remain just between Iran and the US.
The entire Resistance Axis would be mobilized.
US bases and the ‘allies’ who host these bases would also be targeted.
Just yesterday, Commander of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps Aerospace Force Brigadier General Amir Ali Hajizade pointed out that in January, Iran was prepared to strike no less than 400 US targets, If the US had responded to Iran’s retaliatory missile attack on Ain al-Asad, after the US assassinated General Soleimani.
If we recall, Trump had threatened to strike 52 targets in Iran, if Tehran retaliated for Solemanei’s killing – including cultural sites – yet when Iran slapped them across the face, Trump went silent for hours.
Word is, US intelligence saw were Iran was prepared to do exactly what Ali Hajizade said they would and they told old “bone spur” to stay of twitter and go to bed, lest he foolishly stumbled into a war for which the US was ill prepared.
Remember, this is the same IRGC that did not hesitate to “slap down” the US $220M Global Hawk drone in June 2019 for viloating Iranian air space.
Look, the IRGC is not afraid of the US, and just like how the IRGC surprised them on Wednesday with the flawless launch of a military satellite into space, the IRGC will suprise them even further if they make a wrong move and opt for war against Iran.
Selah
By “resistance axis,” I take it you mean Russia and China, among others. Hard to believe that they wouldn’t be drawn into such a conflict as well, especially since the Covid-19 release was essentially the opening shot in this war. The AZ axis is a little far out over their skis on this one. The stink of desperation is palpable. By the same token, it’s hard to imagine the Zionists ever admitting defeat in an actual conflict either, unless it was overwhelming and inescapable. Likely just another military slap down for political purposes with an immediate face saving retreat. My how the mighty have fallen!
Selah
Indeed. And let’s not forget what the Pentagon knows deep in the back of its throat, stuck there from every simulation of war with Iran that it has ever undertaken: the US loses every time. In every permutation of war game devised by the Pentagon, there is no way to win in any fashion that can be acceptable to the US.
The “jewel in the crown” of Pentagon war-game failures against Iran was the “Millennium” exercise about 20 years ago. The US immediately lost, so it stopped the game and changed the rules, upon which the US commander playing the Iran side quit the exercise in disgust, and went public with the failure. Even with the rules changed, the US still loses – because real life will not allow this kind of fantasy rule-changing.
Nothing we have seen in the last 20 years has shown any sign that the US can win against Iran any more than it ever has in any exercise.
All this massive failure and loss of US life – and the undoubted defeat of Trump in the election – just to bolster the shale industry? No way. The Fed alone can carry the shale industry, if it chooses.
~~
So it will have to be words alone that moves the oil price, if anything will. And in a war of pure bluster and nothing else, of course – in which Iran does not engage – the US always wins.
Today’s bluster winner? Same as ever was, the great US. So, celebrate that winner, any who care for that war of bluster. Reality doesn’t care.
Not sure failure and massive loss of life equals an undoubted defeat for Trump. Americans are famous for rallying around the flag in times of war and supporting the sitting CINC, especially when the difference between victory and defeat is so tenuous in the hands of skilled US propagandists.
As for the famed Millennium Exercise, it will be quite interesting to see whether the current generation of US military commanders have learned the lessons it should have taught. Granted, senior military promotions have no doubt become even more politicized in the interim, but the focus on serious academic studies has as well. Not at all sure whether that second point should be considered a positive development in this context, however; as academia has proven to be just as prone to politicization as any other field.
Just as? try fomented it. We’ve entered the realm of the grade A disaster in spades. I call it as I see it.
The inability to win militarily explains why zionazia went to terrorism, biowarfare/chemwarfare and economic warfare. This is why the u.s. has not launched any major military weighted wars under israel’s colonial trump regime. It has zero to do with the bs lines they sold trump with regarding antiwar policy. He didn’t because his massas’ literally couldn’t.
S-400
I’m no military strategist but I’m with you nevertheless. At the same time, I’m absolutely wracking my brains trying to remember the last time the US won a war.
By the same token though, for Warshington, is winning of any consequence anyway? Will it be just another Bankers War…rhetorical question. Sadly perpetual war is the lifeblood of an obscene proportion of the US economy.
Also, Iran is not just another 2-bit country that they can pick up and throw against a wall.
I simply can’t see Russia not intervening if push comes to shove…this is practically their back yard!
Judging by the last exchange which exposed to the whole world just how pathetically vulnerable the Hegemon can be, for the life of me I really can’t see that Russia would even be needed.
The only certainties in this riddle for me are…
#1 A skirmish in that region would solve the oil glut almost overnight.
#2 Don’t look for sound reason or logic in any of Trump and his goon’s escapades…on the contrary, remember that at least two members of his war council are flat-out foaming at the mouth evangelical rapturists.
Just my 2 cents worth but
Col
Hi Col…’the farmer from NZ’,
You state ”#1 A skirmish in that region would solve the oil glut almost overnight.”. This is exactly what I was thinking about. All the scenario’s discussed here are about winning a military battle(s). I am not American but I do know shale oil means a whole lot for the American economy. If it goes down, banks will go down with it. With that the reserve status of the Dollar. Something I am sure many policy makers in America know is inevitable.
As far as I can see Trump (and thus his backers minus the Israel faction) wants MAGA. That can only happen when the reserve status of the Dollar is destroyed. The Empire is already slowly being dismanteld. So you have to have an excuse to withdraw troops. To super summarise it. If I was American president willing to sacrifice Israels interests (what I doubt). The following is what Id do.
Retreat from most if not all bases the US has in the Middle East. This achieves the promis of bring the troops back home. Then launch a massive attack on Iran. Mostly with (cruise) missiles and the likes. Keeping the big capital ships far away. Blame corona for them to having to go to home base.
Then watch and enjoy Iran attacking everything they can. Including many oil producing counties like Saudi Arabia and most of the gulf states that helped America in the attack on Iran. Praying the the straight of Hormuz will be closed. It probably will and then do nothing serious to try to reopen it.
Then watch and enjoy the oil price sky rocket. Once high enough, stop the attack on Iran. This so called under pressure of Saudi Arabia, the Gulf states and the likes. By now they probably know the plan (if not earlier) and stop supporting the petro Dollar. Thus ending the overvaluation of the Dollar. The following inflation in the US be bad. But it will ease the debt burden big time.
The Resistance will call it victory. It isnt. America saved its shale industry and thus banks, eases the chocking debt obligations, brought home the troops from basically the whole middle east and then some. On top, it can start seriously with rebuilding its industrial base. Corona of course laid the foundation for that.
Not bad an outcome from ”loosing” a conflict with Iran. Of course this is a very risky gamble. But seems to me that is what mr Trump does not mind.
Regards,
Hugo
Hugo
Gedday, from the south seas.
You said..
“So you have to have an excuse to withdraw troops. To super summarise it. If I was American president willing to sacrifice Israels interests (what I doubt). The following is what Id do.”
Just my 2 cents worth but I don’t see much evidence that POTUS has any real power anyway. Whether it is Trump or someone else, the whole Presidential charade is little more than Kabuki theatre orchestrated to give the illusion that there is some sort of functional democratic structure operating when there clearly is not.
If there was any logic in the MAGA mantra then the first thing that needs to be done is to let the shale industry die since it is farcically negative energy-producing anyway. It is another product of MMP and ludicrous malinvestment that is totally unsustainable financially…this is without even mentioning its disastrous permanent environmental impact.
Likewise, don’t look for sound reason in any of the military escapades. Warshington will not vacate any war theatre voluntarily or based on sound logic…just look at the current examples of Afghanistan, Syria, and Iraq…if they ever do appear to withdraw Govt forces they will always endeavor to stay on in the form of private mercenary occupations and proxies. They will also stay on doggedly even when it violates every international law in the book.
IMO when it comes to the ME strategy, MAGA has very little sway…MIGA still calls the shots just as it does in so many aspects back home in Warshington.
Between the monumental AIPAC lobby and Trump’s personal and family ties with Israel, MAGA is rendered completely incoherent…it has to be one or the other, the US cannot conduct both policies concurrently…to try to do so is totally incoherent.
By the way Hugo, with you being an ‘awakened’ citizen of the Netherlands and if you had the time, I would be most fascinated to get your personal perspective on the MH17 debacle and the global geopolitical forces that played such a huge part in this tragedy.
You could access my email through Amarynth [Sakers Assistant] at the bottom of the home page.
Very best regards
Col
Some interesting news has appeared regarding US hi-tech being given to China by Israel causing one Israel to resign!!!!
“Secret U.S. missile and electro-optics technology was transferred to China recently by Israel, prompting anger from the U.S. and causing a senior Israeli defense official to resign.”
“The head of defense exports for the Israeli Defense Ministry resigned after a U.S. investigation concluded that technology, including a miniature refrigeration system manufactured by Ricor and used for missiles and in electro-optic equipment, was sent to China, according to the Israeli newspaper Maariv.”
And then get this China is being the keys to the port of Haifa!!!???
“China will operate Haifa port, near Israel’s alleged nuclear-armed submarines, and it seems no one in Israel thought about the strategic ramifications”
https://www.military.com/defensetech/2013/12/24/report-israel-passes-u-s-military-technology-to-china
https://www.haaretz.com/us-news/.premium-israel-is-giving-china-the-keys-to-its-largest-port-and-the-u-s-navy-may-abandon-israel-1.6470527
Taking everything in consideration – Trump is bluffing again.
I cannot help myself, I must comment on two absurd statements from this video.
If the confrontation develops further the US would be forced to conduct a limited landing operation on key parts of the Iranian coast.
They say that amateurs talk tactics, while professionals talk logistics.
Would Trump send the entire US Marine Corps & US paratroopers to conduct an amphibious + airborne assault on Iran? Even if Trump could convince UK Royal marines, French Foreign Legion, Australian SAS, Israel’s Sayeret Matkal, South Korean marines, & Saudi Arabia to join an invasion, how would they all get there undetected? Does anybody really think Moscow would refuse to provide real-time surveillance data to Iran? Wouldn’t Moscow & Beijing gladly provide Iran with munitions, engines, fuel, & other equipment to Iran?
It is likely that despite all difficulties, the US would be able to create an occupation zone inside Iran, likely in the coastal area near the Strait of Hormuz.
Again, where would the USA get the troops from, NATO? Iran’s neighbours like Pakistan, India, or China? Will Trump empty the US prison population & send them to occupy Iran? Can Blackwater/Academi immediately hire 500,000+ mercenaries for occupation duties? Even if US marines could secure a beachhead, will Trump close down most US bases worldwide and concentrate that manpower inside an Iranian “Green Zone?” Would Iraqi militias stay idle & allow Iraqi territory to be used as a staging ground for invading Iran? If USA has enough trouble securing the Green Zone in Iraq, why would an Iranian “Green Zone” be any easier?
Talk about armchair warriors. The most sensible observation was that the Fed can cover the shale industry all on its own, it rescues far bigger fish after all. The Pentagon may enjoy playing toy soldiers with unlimited $$$ and is certainly not going to jeopardise that with ill- conceived ventures.
Can I just point out the utter insanity of Trump PUBLICALLY announcing this change in the Rules of Engagement?
It leaves him hostage to the good graces of the IRGC, because the only “good” outcome for Trump is for them to respond by saying “Oh, OK, we didn’t know it was upsetting you. We’ll stop immediately. Sorry”.
If he had quietly passed the same message to the Iranians via the Swedes then he would have given himself wriggle room to maneuver regardless of how the IRGC responded to those secret communications.
1) The Iranians heed the warning and back off? Splendid, tensions eased and nobody loses face.
2) The Iranians set a trap by upping their harassments? OK, I can either let the bullets fly, or I can tell the sailors not to fall for such a transparent trap, but *either* *way* the choice is still mine to make.
But by PUBLICALLY announcing this policy he has left himself no wriggle-room at all lest he lose face and, furthermore, has left the Iranians very little wriggle-room either without likewise losing face.
When did reducing your options every get smart?
Here, a simple bit of war-gaming: what if the Iranians now respond by installing hundreds – and I mean hundreds, easily enough to overwhelm the defences of a US destroyer – of anti-ship missiles along the shoreline, and then instruct their small-ships to do their harassing (very conspicuously) only when they are within the distant cover of those missile batteries?
What to do…
What to do…
That destroyer captain can then follow his very public orders and toast a few of those speedboats.
But is that *wise* when it is simply indisputable that the Iranians would be entitled to provide covering fire for their forces if they come under attack? After all, *and* military is fully entitled to shoot back when someone starts the shootin’…..
Trump’s PUBLIC announcement allows the IRGC to set a trap, one where they could trade a few speedboats and in turn sink a US destroyer, and it would be very, very, very hard for the USA to explain why that destroyer wasn’t begging for it.
Trump’s PUBLIC announcement is as stupid as it was unnecessary.
Or, in a word: incompetent.
The israelis/zionazis ordered trump to make those threats for the express purpose of removing “wiggle room” in order to make conflict between Iran and their pindo colony more likely.
Very doubtful, vot tak, for the simple reason that what Trump did was not at all out of character.
The Iranian tactic was annoying him, so he went up on stage and vented his frustration by publicly threatening that the next time they did it his ships would open fire.
Anyone who gave themselves a moment’s thought before going up on stage would understand how stupid it would be to say that out loud. Issue the order, fine, but don’t publicly commit yourself to it.
But Trump shows no signs of thinking deeply about anything, and certainly not when he is up on a podium.
I think he issued those orders because he felt that he had to do *something* – no matter how ill-advised – and having issued those orders he lacked neither the insight nor the self-control to stop himself blurting that out in public.
Simple as that really: It was amateurish to say what he said. Not necessarily evil, just….. amateurish.
Yeah Right
Classic case of PTS [ Post-Turtle Syndrome] as simple as that.
Cheers
Col
I should have worded my comment better and used less shorthand. When I wrote israel ordered trump to make that threat, I really should of explained that I meant the threat comes from israel/zionazis and was deliveted through their trump doll.
With trump, israel has an ideal quisling. The sort who really only needs a slight push to get going in the “right” direction. With Iran issues, he only needs the slightest of “guidance”. Rather than outright ordered by israel, what likely happened was he was advised in a manner like:
“Those Iranians are making us look weak, we need to do something to send a strong message to them.”
“Our navy boys are being humiliated, untie their hands and let them show those Iranians a thing or two.”
The “people” advising trump are hard core neocon and similar zionazis. So is trump. They know how to “massage his ego”, “push the right buttons”, especially that israeli son in law, in order to get trump doing exactly what they want him doing.
While what trump says appears to be off the cuff poorly thought out emotional nonsense, especially his tweets, this is for the most part untrue. It is actually part of the psychology being employed by his handlers’ psywar. Trump’s outrageousness is deliberate and an intimate part of the psywar strategy being employed. He knows his role and plays it quite well. That is why zionazia selected him to be the “governor of their premier colony.
But of course the Achilles Heel of the US is Israel. The US is obviously out of reach for Iran but Israel isn’t. And the Israeli’s must know this and they will make sure that they have the last word and are prepared to give the nod to Trump. A moot point perhaps.
Or, Iran could take out the Saudi oil fields making Trump and American Shale Oil happy as clams. In fact, they’d owe Iran big time. Iran might as well target all the Gulf states’ oil production facilities in the way of a big thank you to the EU for [never] supporting Iranian political and human rights all these years. The economic collapse ought to be made really world wide if this is how Washington wants it to go down, undoubtedly taking out remaining Iranian, Iraqi, Syrian and Libyan production. The only ones left peddling petrol internationally will be Russia, Canada, Mexico, Brasil and Venezuela and hopefully most will be sold to China. That American shale will suddenly become a coveted domestic product only. The American banks will have all the world’s dollars, as has been so nicely arranged, but they will be worth squat in a broken world economy.
What war with Iran would look like? The US would first bomb the Saudi oil facilities (like they did the last time, only for real this time) and blame it on Iran, then bomb the Iranian oil facilities & close the Hormuz strait in “retaliation”. It would help US shale oil business and create massive demand for more missiles from the MIC.
Of course, there would be unintended consequences…
@Norwegian: “‘Of course, there would be unintended consequences…”
1. House of Rothschild would spank the POTU$A for bombing KSA, the Jewel in their ME crown.
2. AIPAC would spank the POTU$A for inciting Iran to bomb bomb bomb Israel.
3. City of London would spank the POTU$A for blocking a major artery of world cash flow.
Once again there is a discussion about a potential future US/Iran all-out war without any mention at all of a vital area of modern warfare – namely cyber. In 2003, when theatre commander Admiral (“Not on my watch”) Fallon disobeyed a direct order from the White House (Cheney not Bush) for him to attack an Iranian coastal facility to precipitate a ‘Gulf of Tonkin’ type pretext, the Iranians realised just how insane the neo-cons were, and how real the threat of an existential war was.
Although they have a good domestic MIC, they knew they could not compete with the vast US military, so they looked at an area where the could attain parity. One asset they had was a wave of highly educated mathematicians, scientists and engineers graduating through their high quality university system. Consequently they have developed a significant capability in the cyber arena – remember how a few years ago they hacked and hijacked a US drone, soft landed it and no doubt gleefully disassembled it adding to their own drone capability.
My speculation is that in the event of an all-out conflagration, a lot of American weapons systems would go haywire or simply fail to work, and if it really was all out, then I would expect to see the apparently highly vulnerable US domestic infrastructure being seriously disrupted too. In which case the National Guard would be too busy at home to head to the Gulf.
Presumably the sane people in Washington (there must be some) understand this.
Through a rich friend I used to know a lot of well-to-do Iranian professionals living with green cards or citizenship in the United States. To put it mildly, they were generally not pleased with American or British foreign policy, and most certainly not our overbearing Zionism. Moreover, they constantly get hassled by the feds, yet they come and go freely between the two countries. Frankly, if the situation ever explodes into the scenario envisaged in this article, I would be surprised, even disappointed in those people, if they did not take massive fifth column actions against this country for what will be more heinous war crimes in America’s name. Washington only proves everyday that it does not stand for a single ideal set forth in the Declaration of Independence and the American Constitution. It only represents what Saker calls Anglo-Zionist power and interests.
War by the US on Iran could look like a viral pandemic….
US would most probably use nukes since with only conventional weapons very unlikely enough to defeat Iran. Israel and probably Saudi will be actively implicated with the US against Iran. Iran will have no choice but to attack both of them using different means, misiles, militias (Hezbollah?) to make them feel “the pain”. Russia but specially China should not let Iran without help.
US won’t get near Iran – You have no idea of the electronic and scalar weaponry Iran possesses – nobody does .
Iran has already disabled US boats in the Persian Gulf..
Russia displayed over 70 types of ‘never before seen’ weapons in Syria !
If the Zio/US thought they had any chance against Iran – they would have done it by now.
@Jack
“You have no idea of the electronic and scalar weaponry Iran possesses – nobody does .”
But you do. They told you. And the Russian GRU and SVR could not know, eh?
Fantasy land . . .
I know nothing about military operations, tactics, strategy or weapons systems but I know one thing…. If the US and their allies were convinced that they could successfully attack Iran without suffering significant retaliation from Iran and iran’s allies, they would have attacked Iran long ago. Short of using nuclear weapons, there do not seem to be any options to achieve anything that could be seen as “victory” against Iran. Yes, the US has (on paper) the overwhelming advantage in technology and numbers of weapons systems but the Iranians and their regional allies have some capabilities of their own as well as the ingenuity and motivation to use them in unexpected ways.
There has been almost no reference to what could be the reaction of the American people.
One comment was, in a time of war the American people tend to ‘rally round the flag’ In my opinion, not this time! The era of delusion, like Capitalism, and Imperialism itself, is crumbling.
People are awakening. Americans and the working class or (non-working in the case of many countries) around the world have just about had it.
Armies will be marching alright, they will be marching on the ruling class, There will be no massive support for war by the people. There would be massive and I’m sorry to say violent reaction to any such attempt to ‘take it to Iran’ or any other major player in the world.
No disrespect to Southfront intended, but this is not a particularly good article as it is focused on a very unlikely direct clash between militaries whilst failing to acknowledge / recognise the ongoing and long-standing assymetrical war between Iran and the Anglo-Zionist Tripartate of the US, UK, and Isreal (a war over 50 years old!).
.
Sadly, an article speculating on what a war between Iran and the US would like is pointless when it fails to acknowledge that Iran and the US, indeed Iran and the Anglo-Zionist tripartate, have actually been engaged in almost continuous assymetrical warfare since the Anglo-Persian Oil Company days.
Indeed, how many times have the British MI6, the Israeli MOSSAD, and the US CIA directly interveined INSIDE Iran (and against Iranians interests internationally) in just the last 50 years?
How many Iranians have been killed or lives / businesses destroyed by the actions of the intel services (much less the militaries) associated with the Anglo-Zionist tripartate?
The British, Israelis, and Americans have engaged in assymetrical warfare in the fields of:
Political,
Economic,
Industrial,
Technological,
Resource (including food and medicine!)
Intelligence,
Information (propaganda against Iran goes off the scale)
and of course military.
There are other fields but I dont wish to labour the point.
This constant (and relentless) assymetrical warfare (now called “maximum pressure” by the Trump Regime) has been at huge cost to Iran.
However, Iran has engaged in very sophisticated forms of assymetric retaliation – many forms never getting reported in the West – except when so high profile they cannot be covered up (such as the recent x3 hi-tech drone captures / downings over Iran and Syria, and other EW reveals in the form of air defence – and of course the precision missile hits on US bases).
Iran well knows that it is at war to the deth with (the Satanic Powers of) the Anglo-Zionist Deep state and thier enforcement arms of the Intel Agencies and the International Bankers (sanctions, sanctions, and more sanctions), otherwise known as the Luciferian Globalist Elites. Fortunately, Iran recognises that the people of the UK, Israel, or the US are slaves to the deep state so we dont see our very vulnerable and exposed infrastructure (including water, food, power, industry, finance, and transport) hit in assymetrical ways.
Instead of hurting the ordinary people of the UK, US, and Israel (and in contrast to those nations), Iran has instead been engaging in a very ‘Hot’ war with the MI6 in Iraq and Syria, the CIA in Iraq, Syria, and Afghanistan, and MOSSAD just about every where (as they have infiltrated just about everywhere).
If there is a provocation / false flag leading to an escalation involving the militaries engaging directly with each other, Iran has a little known ‘Sampson Option’ of its own.
I will let you do your own research on this, perhaps someone with detailed knowledge can even post an article on it, but when faced with total war, Iran will take out the locations and facilities of all MI6, CIA, and MOSSAD anywhere they are with extreme prejudice – along with key Globalists and family members (destroying thier blood line is the biggest threat you can make to an ancient “family”).
Iran already made (a final) demonstration of thier ability to take out secret protected assets when all major CIA comms and buildings related to drone warfare inside Iraq (protected deep inside in key US military bases) were taken out by precision missile strikes – with a warning given to the military that they were NOT the target of the incomming – it was the CIA. The military bunkered down and it was CIA drone related infrastruce that was destroyed.
Iran, just like Hezbollah, have also sent ‘special messages’ to key personnel in the Deep-State to, quote – “Do not test our capabilities”. Those special messages were recieved loud and clear, and although the combined military forces of the US, Israel, and the UK can of course smash Iran back to the stone age – especially if nukes are used – it would be a pyric victory at best on account of the assymetrical retaliation which could not be fully prevented.
A concomitant risk of a pyric victory is the leaving of the US (and Israel in particular) vulnerable to the predations of greater powers such as Russia and China (or opportunists such as Turkey and Saudi-Arabia regarding Israel).
So, to cut a potentially long comment short, no discussion of a new (hot) war between the US and Iran will make any sence whatsover unless it also recognises the ‘old’ war that Iran and the US (with the UK and Israel) have been engaged in – on an assymetrical level – for well over 50 years (currently fought between Intel agencies and proxies and overlooked seemingly even by ‘trained’ eyes).
PS
On a side note, dont forget for a second that we are currently in the midst of a slow burn global economic collapse currently masked by the Covid-19 issue.
There WILL be food and supply shortages in the months ahead – so prepare accoringly.
When it comes to Iran, NK has to come into play since Iran and NK have been doing joint research and development for a long time. NK has ICBMs, SLBMs, EMPs, nuclear subs, etc that can cover the entire US continent (hence talk between Kim and Trump in Hanoi). So it is safe to assume that Iran has similar weapon systems and capabilities to NK’s. Iran has advanced missiles and launched satellites in the past including a satellite launch a couple of days ago and that indicates Iran’s ICBM capability. Then what about nukes considering NK has nukes? No one knows. Most of Iran’s important military and industrial facilities are deep under the ground just like NK. Iran also has a large sub fleet with about 50 subs (US has about 70 subs, Russia about 70 subs). Iran has a population of 85 millions and a large land mass with tough terrains in north and so war depth is very deep. Then world war 3 possibility. There are many uncertainties for US and if US lost, US would be done. Keep in mind what Sun Tzu said.
An intetesting, though very general analysis.
“One of the reasons behind the escalation is the consistent and strengthening anti-Iranian rhetoric of the White House as a part of Trump’s presidential campaign.”
Doubtful the israelis are ramping up the war against Iran to get trump elected. With respect to israeli war mongering, trump or biden, either quisling will do. The war against Iran is an israeli war, primarily.
“Indeed, a new conflict in the Persian Gulf could theoretically return the oil prices to $50-60 per barrel.”
Or see the price rise much higher. It could result in massive destruction of saudi oil infrastructure, along with the others located along the Persian Gulf. This would cause instability in energy worse than what is happening now.
A military confrontation between Iran and israel’s american colony could go several ways. It’s clear Iran has the ability to strike land assets. But a lot depends on the Iranian ability to retaliate against sea assets and their air defense abilities. These are not really known to any reliable degree.
Has anyone considered what the Iranian Sleeper Cells would do inside the United States?
HOW THE IRAN/USA WAR WILL PLAY OUT FROM THE WHITE HOUSE SITUATION ROOM.
Scene: D-Day -24hours, a secure room dominated by a large screen of a PowerPoint map of Iran. The Chairman of the JCS stands up and swaggers to the front of the room. The briefing begins….
CJCS: Mr President, at zero hour F-35 jets will attack here, here, here and there (points laser, targets blink out). B-2 bombers will sweep in (animation plays) to take out these installations (laser flicks again). Meanwhile carrier-based FA-18 Super Hornets will destroy this and this and those (and again).
POTUS: Good, good, and then?
CJCS: By D-Day +48hours all the primary targets will be destroyed, we move on to these secondaries (points again). We expect to start running out of worthwhile targets by D-Day +7days, give or take. At that point the war will be over, Mr. President.
POTUS: Good, good, and how many boots will you need?
CJCS: [Beaming] None, Mr President! This will be an Air-War. No additional troops on the ground other than what we already have in-theatre.
POTUS: And how many is that?
CJCS: [Non-plussed, confers with flunky] Around 40,000 ground troops, all-up. More than enough to handle the Taliban, the PMU, and the Hezbollah troops inside Syria.
POTUS: You’re sure about that?
CJCS: Nothing they can’t handle, Mr. President.
POTUS: Then it’s a GO from me, General. Issue the orders.
CJCS: YES SIR!!!
BAMMMMMM! BANG! SWOOOOOSH! ZING! ZANG! KERPOWEEEEE!
Scene: D-Day +48hours, the same secure room. The CJCS wipes his brow and clears his throat.
POTUS: Well, spill it, General. Are all the primary targets destroyed?
CJCS: Errrr, yes, Mr. President, that part is panning out as we expected, more or less.
POTUS: THAT part? Isn’t that the ONLY part?
CJCS: Errrr, yes, Mr. President, that was the plan.
POTUS: And? And? Spit it out, man!
CJCS: [Blurting] We need another 450,000 men, Mr. President. Plus 200,000 from our NATO allies.
POTUS: WHHAAAAAAATTTTTTT! Didn’t you tell me that 40,000 men can handle the rag-tags?
CJCS: [Panic in his voice] I did, Mr President, and they are, it’s just that……
POTUS: Spit. It. Out. Man!!!
CJCS: We forgot to include the Iranians Army in our force calculations.
POTUS: [very quietly] The what… what? How big is their army?
CJCS: Over a million men, Mr. President. They have mobilized and are marching on our 40,000 men as we speak.
POTUS: [Orange tint drains from his face. Unintelligable gurgly sounds issue from his throat]
And it will all start to go downhill from there….
The US will not attack Iran directly, attacking an enemy at home is never a good idea if you’re not willing to sustain significant losses.
Dropping bombs on Iran alone does not guarantee regime change no matter how sophisticated the bomb or the quantity.
Nuclear is not a good option for all the reasons Saker has labored in the past.
That said the US have shown their willingness to carry through on plans to destroy 7 countries even if it takes more than 5 years.
Iran, Lebanon & Syria are unfinished business for the neocons, and not for the lack of trying, likely they will double down on efforts soon (yrs not decades).
I agree its likely the US will want to destroy Iran in spectacular fashion but it’ll most likely be a coalition force not just the US and it won’t necessarily be Trump who leads it. Imagine shudder the thought if sleepy Joe became POTUS by nominating Killary as VP.
Anyway for many reasons Covid-19 has made a coalition more likely!
I still see the possibility of a very large formidable force landing in Northern Syria/Southern Turkey with the intention of drawing out Syria, Lebanon and Iran into what the West would predict as certain victory.
Furthermore while Lebanese forces were engaged in northern Syria, Israel would likely try attacking Lebanon from the South (again) and yet another attacking force would push through Aden. Aden also cuts China off from the Gulf of Aden and their base in Djibouti. All these landing points have been softened up already.
Covid-19 has made a major conflict more likely not less. If we cast our minds back to 1932, economic hardship, desperation, a population managed by fear, Thucydides Trap then like it was planned we entered WWII. Couple this with the current status under Pandemic legislation of free speech/sensorship, right to free assembly, right to protest and medical martial law and it would easy to interpret these as signs we might be months away not years.
Donald Trump may well be the last president of the former United States of America.
America thinks it can whip up nationalistic war hysteria to suppress the fissues in the American Empire that have been revealed by the USA’s criminally lackadsaical response to COVID-19.
It should think again.
America and its allied crime partners will reap at home the wars of aggression that they wage around the world.
Rest in Pieces, disUnited States of America
It seems that non western powers have decided to seriously and officially push back the AZ out of their backyard.
In addition to Iran clearly stating that US is not welcome and acting as such.
Russia is doing the same.
Is it a concerted effort ?
It seems it is the end of western dominance.
Russia has delivered the ultimatum of the United States on the Black Sea
http://avia-pro.net/news/rossiya-postavila-ultimatum-ssha-po-chyornomu-moryu
BTW:
China boosts oil imports from Russia, while slashing purchases from Saudi Arabia
https://www.rt.com/business/486917-china-russia-oil-imports/
“As crumbling demand for crude and lack of storage space have been wreaking havoc on the oil market, China has been boosting oil exports in a move seen as taking advantage of record low oil prices. Covid-19 has severely cut the demand of one of the top global importers, but in March China purchased 9.68 million barrels per day (bpd), that is 4.5 percent more than it did during the same period in 2019.
Russia and Saudi Arabia supplied almost equal amounts of oil to the country last month, with shipments standing at 7.02 million tonnes (1.66 million bpd) and 7.21 million tonnes (1.7 million bpd) respectively. However, the data released by the General Administration of Customs shows that purchases from Riyadh fell 1.6 percent, while Russian crude imports rose 31 percent, according to Reuters calculations.”
&
Crude price collapse will finally force US oil industry to cut production or go bust
https://www.rt.com/business/486404-us-forced-oil-production-cut/
“The pandemic did become the last nail in the coffin for US shale companies, as they initially were not meant to survive for long, except for some heavyweights of the Permian Basin, like Concho, EOG and Pioneer.
“If we had not had the coronavirus we would have half of those companies going bankrupt anyway this year,” he said, explaining that their business model is the problem, as they have to constantly drill, requiring massive funds. “I’d be shocked if the government bailed out the shale drillers.”
“It’s three to five years before US production gets back to the level it is now,” the analyst concludes. “Tens of thousands of people are going be laid off. It’s a bloodbath in our economy in the US.”
A hot war on Iran by zionazia would see oil prices rise and possibly save the u.s. shale oil industry for the big guys, who will gobble up the small producers, as planned. On the other hand it could see the u.s./nato booted from the Mideast and Central Asia and leave massa israel much more isolated. Does massa israel think saving some fracking companies worth it in such a potential outcome?
If US had been able to attack Iran, it would have happened a long time ago.
“If US had been able to attack Iran, it would have happened a long time ago.”
It has always been able to attack Iran. Still is.
It just hasn’t prepared from what comes next, which is why the USA has been too scared to take the plunge.
In Gulf War 1 the USA spent SIX MONTHS building up its army of 750,000 fighting men (500,000 GIs, 250,000 Allies), and it was only then that Operation Desert Storm was launched.
In Gulf War 2 the USA assembled over 250,000 GIs to take on a much, much weaker Iraq, and in hindsight that number was far too small to pacify the country. But even so, it took many months to position those troops.
CentCom currently has 40,000 ground forces, scattered all over the Middle East. There is no sign of troop buildup.
That is nowhere near enough to fight a major war against a much stronger and far better prepared enemy than Iraq ever was.
All this talk of this being only an air-war is wish-fulfillment, pure and simple.
It *entirely* relies on the Iranians agreeing to that proposition, when they have absolutely no reason to be so compliant to American wishes.
If the USA starts an “air war” the Iranians will mobilize their army and turn it into a ground war.
After all, why shouldn’t they? THEY have an army in-theatre. Trump doesn’t, and he is too lazy to do anything about that.
There are targets and there are submarines.
Iran has a lot of subs in addition to mention missiles.
Iran will sink all US warships in the middle east with missiles and torpedos. Then where would US planes take off from? Iran has domestically built anti aircraft and missile defense systems comparable to s-300.
US will have to use sub launched cruise missiles, which looks the most viable system for US. This will not do it for US.
“Then where would US planes take off from?”
Apart from the Marine Corp version of the F-35 the USAF does not have a single jet fighter that can operate from anything other than a very long concrete runway.
The Iranian missile attack on the Al Assad airfield shows that they have missiles that not only can hit an airfield – they can actually hit specific hangars, and precisely punch holes in specific taxiways.
Twenty-four hours after the Americans launch an attack they will find that the only planes they have left are those that were lucky enough to be in the air when the Iranian counter-attack began – everything unlucky enough to be on the ground will be splattered all over the airfields. The airfield concrete runways will be cut in two, and then into quarters, and put out of action when that Maximum Effort! was required.
That’s if the Americans actually launch the attack. If they give an “ultimatum” then it is much more likely that *every* USAF aircraft that is in-theatre with get taken out before they can get off the ground.
The first rule of air-warfare: the overwhelming majority of planes are lost on the ground, not in the air.
And the USA has spent 50 years designing planes that are spectacularly vulnerable on the ground.
For a better analysis see this video interview of Sharmine Narwani – especially after minute 20 and how the USA loses because it has war gamed what would happen if it attacked Iran and it has never been good for the USA. That according to her is the reason that the US has not yet attacked Iran. Now take this further – the war games were staged in 2001. Iran has not been sitting idly by. Follow this up with the scenario that Israel was kicked out of southern Lebanon by the people that became Hezbollah, then the fact that Israel lost the war in its invasion of Lebanon in 2006 (and sued for peace – http://www.conflictsforum.org/2006/how-hezbollah-defeated-israel/) . Now consider that Hezbollah has gained enormous battle expertise in Syria – all with the backing, training and influence of Iran.
Then take the fact that ISIS occupied 1/3rd of Iraq and that the US could do nothing until Iran Via Suleimani stepped in and defeated ISIS.
Further , after the assassination of Suleimani Iran attacked 2 US bases in Iraq.(More than 100 soldiers injured as admitted – very difficult to get the truth from the US). And Iran let it be known that if there was retaliation about 400 US targets would be attacked.
The US stood down.
IMHO if your back is against the wall and you are prepared to annihilate and be annihilated then the big bully which is egged on by its allies will show its true colours. Will America attack Iran – not unless Trump has no option and decides that maybe it will work – like injecting insecticide into a person to rid them of COVID19. What he does not know is the patient will be dead long before the virus is killed. You can guess who is the patient and who the virus is from an American perspective!
Why does so many Armchair American Warriors think that the Iranian response will be limited to the area around Iran?
Can you think of Sleeper Cells inside America destroying the power grid? Maybe every oil refinery and storage area aflame from even large toy drones with incendiaries? Less than a hundred fanatics could black out the whole country AND since we get our replacement Grid Equipment from China we may take years if ever to restore it. NO we don’t have enough spares friends, I checked. Just In Time strikes again just like the COVID19 PPE shortage.
Thankfully schools and malls are closed so those soft targets for terrorism are unavailable due to COVID19.
These people strap BOMBS on themselves to kill an American patrol. Fear of death seem not an issue for them so the you’ll get killed doing an attack on …. is not much of a deterrent.
As a retired American Soldier I *still* wonder what we misplaced in the middle east that we need to spend so much money and blood, unless Israel really does run our government? Much cheaper I assume to take our money to bribe congressmen to “defend” Israel instead of allowing them to stand on their own merits?