By Pepe Escobar, posted with permission and first posted at Asia Times
Few geopolitical hot spots across the planet may rival the Caucasus: that intractable, tribal Tower of Babel, throughout History a contentious crossroads of empires from the Levant and nomads from the Eurasian steppes. And it gets even messier when one adds the fog of war.
To try to shed some light into the current Armenia-Azerbaijan face off, let’s crisscross the basic facts with some essential deep background.
Late last month Ilham Aliyev, Azerbaijan’s proverbial “strongman”, in power since 2003, launched a de facto war on the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh held by Armenia.
At the collapse of the USSR, Nagorno-Karabakh had a mixed population of Azeri Shi’ites and Armenian Christians. Yet even before the collapse the Azerbaijani Army and Armenian independentists were already at war (1988-1994), which yielded a grim balance of 30,000 dead and roughly a million wounded.
The Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh declared independence in 1991: but that was not recognized by the “international community”. Finally there was a ceasefire in 1994 – with Nagorno-Karabakh entering the gray area/no man’s land of “frozen conflict”.
The problem is that in 1993, the United Nations had approved no less than four resolutions – 822, 853, 874 and 884 – establishing that Armenia should withdraw from what was deemed to be roughly 20% of Azerbaijani territory. This is at the core of Baku’s rationale to fight against what it qualifies as a foreign occupation army.
Yerevan’s interpretation though is that these four resolutions are null and void because Nagorno-Karabakh harbors an Armenian-majority population who wants to secede from Azerbaijan.
Historically, Artsakh is one of three ancient provinces of Armenia – rooted at least in the 5th century B.C. and finally established in 189 B.C. Armenians, based on DNA samples from excavated bones, argue they have been settled in Artsakh for at least 4,000 years.
Artsakh – or Nagorno-Karabakh – was annexed to Azerbaijan by Stalin in 1923. That set the stage for a future powder keg to inevitably explode.
It’s important to remember that there was no “Azerbaijan” nation-state until the early 1920s. Historically, Azerbaijan is a territory in northern Iran. Azeris are very well integrated within the Islamic Republic. So the Republic of Azerbaijan actually borrowed its name from their Iranian neighbors. In ancient history, the territory of the new 20th century republic was known as Atropatene, and Aturpakatan before the advent of Islam.
How the equation changed
Baku’s main argument is that Armenia is blocking a contiguous Azerbaijani nation, as a look in the map shows us that southwest Azerbaijan is de facto split all the way to the Iranian border.
And that plunges us necessarily into deep background. To clarify matters, there could not be a more reliable guide than a top Caucasus think tank expert who shared his analysis with me by email, but is insistent on “no attribution”. Let’s call him Mr. C.
Mr. C notes that, “for decades, the equation remained the same and the variables in the equation remained the same, more or less. This was the case notwithstanding the fact that Armenia is an unstable democracy in transition and Azerbaijan had much more continuity at the top.”
We should all be aware that “Azerbaijan lost territory right at the beginning of the restoration of its statehood, when it was basically a failed state run by armchair nationalist amateurs [before Heydar Aliyev, Ilham’s father, came to power]. And Armenia was a mess, too but less so when you take into consideration that it had strong Russian support and Azerbaijan had no one. Back in the day, Turkey was still a secular state with a military that looked West and took its NATO membership seriously. Since then, Azerbaijan has built up its economy and increased its population. So it kept getting stronger. But its military was still underperforming.”
That slowly started to change in 2020: “Basically, in the past few months you’ve seen incremental increases in the intensity of near daily ceasefire violations (the near-daily violations are nothing new: they’ve been going on for years). So this blew up in July and there was a shooting war for a few days. Then everyone calmed down again.”
All this time, something important was developing in the background: Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, who came to power in May 2018, and Aliyev started to talk: “The Azerbaijani side thought this indicated Armenia was ready for compromise (this all started when Armenia had a sort of revolution, with the new PM coming in with a popular mandate to clean house domestically). For whatever reason, it ended up not happening.”
What happened in fact was the July shooting war.
Don’t forget Pipelineistan
Armenian PM Pashinyan could be described as a liberal globalist. The majority of his political team is pro-NATO. Pashinyan went all guns blazing against former Armenian President (1998- 2008) Robert Kocharian, who before that happened to be, crucially, the de facto President of Nagorno-Karabakh.
Kocharian, who spent years in Russia and is close to President Putin, was charged with a nebulous attempt at “overthrowing the constitutional order”. Pashinyan tried to land him in jail. But even more crucial is the fact that Pashinyan refused to follow a plan elaborated by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov to finally settle the Artsakh/Nagorno-Karabakh mess.
In the current fog of war, things are even messier. Mr. C stresses two points: “First, Armenia asked for CSTO protection and got bitch slapped, hard and in public; second, Armenia threatened to bomb the oil and gas pipelines in Azerbaijan (there are several, they all run parallel, and they supply not just Georgia and Turkey but now the Balkans and Italy). With regards to the latter, Azerbaijan basically said: if you do that, we’ll bomb your nuclear reactor.”
The Pipelineistan angle is indeed crucial: for years I have followed on Asia Times these myriad, interlocking oil and gas soap operas, especially the BTC (Baku-Tblisi-Ceyhan), conceived by Zbigniew Brzezinski to bypass Iran. I was even “arrested” by a BP 4X4 when I was tracking the pipeline on a parallel side road out of the massive Sangachal terminal: that proved British Petroleum was in practice the real boss, not the Azerbaijani government.
In sum, now we have reached the point where, according to Mr. C,
“Armenia’s saber rattling got more aggressive.” Reasons, on the Armenian side, seem to be mostly domestic: terrible handling of Covid-19 (in contrast to Azerbaijan), and the dire state of the economy. So, says Mr. C, we came to a toxic concourse of circumstances: Armenia deflected from its problems by being tough on Azerbaijan, while Azerbaijan just had had enough.
It’s always about Turkey
Anyway one looks at the Armenia-Azerbaijan drama, the key destabilizing factor is now Turkey.
Mr. C notes how, “throughout the summer, the quality of the Turkish-Azerbaijani military exercises increased (both prior to July events and subsequently). The Azerbaijani military got a lot better. Also, since the fourth quarter of 2019 the President of Azerbaijan has been getting rid of the (perceived) pro-Russian elements in positions of power.” See, for instance, here.
There’s no way to confirm it either with Moscow or Ankara, but Mr. C advances what President Erdogan may have told the Russians: “We’ll go into Armenia directly if a) Azerbaijan starts to lose, b) Russia goes in or accepts CSTO to be invoked or something along those lines, or c) Armenia goes after the pipelines. All are reasonable red lines for the Turks, especially when you factor in the fact that they don’t like the Armenians very much and that they consider the Azerbaijanis brothers.”
It’s crucial to remember that in August, Baku and Ankara held two weeks of joint air and land military exercises. Baku has bought advanced drones from both Turkey and Israel. There’s no smokin’ gun, at least not yet, but Ankara may have hired up to 4,000 Salafi-jihadis in Syria to fight – wait for it – in favor of Shi’ite-majority Azerbaijan, proving once again that “jihadism” is all about making a quick buck.
The United Armenian Information Center, as well as the Kurdish Afrin Post, have stated that Ankara opened two recruitment centers – in Afrin schools – for mercenaries. Apparently this has been a quite popular move because Ankara slashed salaries for Syrian mercenaries shipped to Libya.
There’s an extra angle that is deeply worrying not only for Russia but also for Central Asia. According to the former Foreign Minister of Nagorno-Karabakh, Ambassador Extraordinary Arman Melikyan, mercenaries using Azeri IDs issued in Baku may be able to infiltrate Dagestan and Chechnya and, via the Caspian, reach Atyrau in Kazakhstan, from where they can easily reach Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan.
That’s the ultimate nightmare of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) – shared by Russia, China and the Central Asian “stans”: a jihadi land – and (Caspian) sea – bridge from the Caucasus all the way to Central Asia, and even Xinjiang.
What’s the point of this war?
So what happens next? A nearly insurmountable impasse, as Mr. C outlines it:
1. “The peace talks are going nowhere because Armenia is refusing to budge (to withdraw from occupying Nagorno-Karabakh plus 7 surrounding regions in phases or all at once, with the usual guarantees for civilians, even settlers – note that when they went in in the early 1990s they cleansed those lands of literally all Azerbaijanis, something like between 700,000 and 1 million people).”
2. Aliyev was under the impression that Pashinyan “was willing to compromise and began preparing his people and then looked like someone with egg on his face when it didn’t happen.”
3. “Turkey has made it crystal clear it will support Azerbaijan unconditionally, and has matched those words with deeds.”
4. “In such circumstances, Russia got outplayed – in the sense that they had been able to play off Armenia against Azerbaijan and vice versa, quite successfully, helping to mediate talks that went nowhere, preserving the status quo that effectively favored Armenia.”
And that brings us to the crucial question. What’s the point of this war?
Mr. C: “It is either to conquer as much as possible before the “international community” [in this case, the UNSC] calls for / demands a ceasefire or to do so as an impetus for re-starting talks that actually lead to progress. In either scenario, Azerbaijan will end up with gains and Armenia with losses. How much and under what circumstances (the status and question of Nagorno-Karabakh is distinct from the status and question of the Armenian occupied territories around Nagorno-Karabakh) is unknown: i.e. on the field of battle or the negotiating table or a combo of both. However this turns out, at a minimum Azerbaijan will get to keep what it liberated in battle. This will be the new starting point. And I suspect that Azerbaijan will do no harm to the Armenian civilians that stay. They’ll be model liberators. And they’ll take time to bring back Azerbaijani civilians (refugees/IDPs) to their homes, especially in areas that would become mixed as a result of return.”
So what can Moscow do under these circumstances? Not much,
“except to go into Azerbaijan proper, which they won’t do (there’s no land border between Russia and Armenia; so although Russia has a military base in Armenia with one or more thousand troops, they can’t just supply Armenia with guns and troops at will, given the geography).”
Crucially, Moscow privileges the strategic partnership with Armenia – which is a member of the Eurasia Economic Union (EAEU) – while meticulously monitoring each and every NATO-member Turkey’s movement: after all, they are already in opposing sides in both Libya and Syria.
So, to put it mildly, Moscow is walking on a geopolitical razor’s edge. Russia needs to exercise restraint and invest in a carefully calibrated balancing act between Armenia and Azerbaijan; must preserve the Russia-Turkey strategic partnership; and must be alert to all, possible US Divide and Rule tactics.
Inside Erdogan’s war
So in the end this would be yet another Erdogan war?
The inescapable Follow the Money analysis would tells us, yes. The Turkish economy is an absolute mess, with high inflation and a depreciating currency. Baku has a wealth of oil-gas funds that could become readily available – adding to Ankara’s dream of turning Turkey also into an energy supplier.
Mr. C adds that anchoring Turkey in Azerbaijan would lead to “the creation of full-fledged Turkish military bases and the inclusion of Azerbaijan in the Turkish orbit of influence (the “two countries – one nation” thesis, in which Turkey assumes supremacy) within the framework of neo-Ottomanism and Turkey’s leadership in the Turkic-speaking world.”
Add to it the all-important NATO angle. Mr. C essentially sees it as Erdogan, enabled by Washington, about to make a NATO push to the east while establishing that immensely dangerous jihadi channel into Russia: “This is no local adventure by Erdogan. I understand that Azerbaijan is largely Shi’ite Islam and that will complicate things but not render his adventure impossible.”
This totally ties in with a notorious RAND report that explicitly details how “the United States could try to induce Armenia to break with Russia” and “encourage Armenia to move fully into the NATO orbit.”
It’s beyond obvious that Moscow is observing all these variables with extreme care. That is reflected, for instance, in how irrepressible Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova, earlier this week, has packaged a very serious diplomatic warning: “The downing of an Armenian SU-25 by a Turkish F-16, as claimed by the Ministry of Defense in Armenia, seems to complicate the situation, as Moscow, based on the Tashkent treaty, is obligated to offer military assistance to Armenia”.
It’s no wonder both Baku and Yerevan got the message and are firmly denying anything happened.
The key fact remains that as long as Armenia proper is not attacked by Azerbaijan, Russia will not apply the CSTO treaty and step in. Erdogan knows this is his red line. Moscow has all it takes to put him in serious trouble – as in shutting off gas supplies to Turkey. Moscow, meanwhile, will keep helping Yerevan with intel and hardware – flown in from Iran. Diplomacy rules – and the ultimate target is yet another ceasefire.
Pulling Russia back in
Mr. C advances the strong possibility – and I have heard echoes from Brussels – that “the EU and Russia find common cause to limit Azerbaijani gains (in large part because Erdogan is no one’s favorite guy, not just because of this but because of the Eastern Med, Syria, Libya).”
That brings to the forefront the renewed importance of the UNSC in imposing a ceasefire. Washington’s role at the moment is quite intriguing. Of course, Trump has more important things to do at the moment. Moreover, the Armenian diaspora in the US swings drastically pro-Democrat.
Then, to round it all up, there’s the all-important Iran-Armenia relationship. Here is a forceful attempt to put it in perspective.
As Mr. C stresses, “Iran favors Armenia, which is counter-intuitive at first sight. So the Iranians may help the Russians out (funneling supplies), but on the other hand they have a good relationship with Turkey, especially in the oil and gas smuggling business. And if they get too overt in their support, Trump has a casus belli to get involved and the Europeans may not like to end up on the same side as the Russians and the Iranians. It just looks bad. And the Europeans hate to look bad.”
We inevitably come back to the point that the whole drama can be interpreted from the perspective of a NATO geopolitical hit against Russia – according to quite a few analyses circulating at the Duma.
Ukraine is an absolute black hole. There’s the Belarus impasse. Covid-19. The Navalny circus. The “threat” to Nord Stream-2.
To pull Russia back into the Armenia-Azerbaijan drama means turning Moscow’s attention towards the Caucasus so there’s more Turkish freedom of action in other theaters – in the Eastern Mediterranean versus Greece, in Syria, in Libya. Ankara – foolishly – is engaged in simultaneous wars on several fronts, and with virtually no allies.
What this means is that even more than NATO, monopolizing Russia’s attention in the Caucasus most of all may be profitable for Erdogan himself. As Mr. C stresses, “in this situation, the Nagorno-Karabakh leverage/’trump card’ in the hands of Turkey would be useful for negotiations with Russia.”
No question: the neo-Ottoman sultan never sleeps.
Adding this to the paragraph “What’s the point of this war”:
5. To prevent Iran and Russia from linking their power grids which was announced this year.
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Iran-To-Link-Its-Power-Grid-To-Russia-Azerbaijan.html
“Iran’s power grid could be linked and synchronized to connect with other grids either via Azerbaijan or via Armenia and Georgia, Ardakanian said, as reported by Iranian Fars news agency.
“Iran welcomes either of the two routes which gets ready first,” Fars quoted minister Ardakanian as saying. ”
Well it looks like neither of these routes will be ready for that now.
You are right and it seems they are dragged in,
first Russia will have to deal with obligations towards Armenia,
yes, time has come as the very territory of her allies was attacked – Armenians S-300s have done their job, somehow in much better shape than the Syrian’s
https://youtu.be/stFRxm6vXIE
https://youtu.be/2Ejzz3B_nTI
Enough of scholarship, time to act. And do not stop until taking Istanbul!
This is true. Erdogan, like lukashenko, can betray any country. Erdogan bought the s-400s to prevent the americans from stabbing his back. To further remove future american coup attempts, he is also working for the americans in syria, libya and now azerbaijan.
Serbian girl’s analysis is most correct, and most geopolitically important. The american anglozionist empire will go all out to prevent the physical connection of the two countries the usa can never beat because these are too smart. Once iran and russia are connected by utilities infrastructure, trade and highways, the two countries can completely destroy the usa in the middle east.
More so, as iran can increase financial support to hizbollah by 10x or more — the doom of israel will then be guaranteed. A russia, azerbaijan and iran integration will make all 3 incredibly rich and militarily invincible.
Further, russia will already set up in iran by october 2020 incredible oth radar stations, aew, hypersonic air defense systems, kilo++ subs, s400++, and su-57s and mig-35s. That’s just for starters.
And germany will love the russia-azerbaijan-iran nexus as this will turbocharge the eurasian and sco integration. The pent-up anti-covid demand for luxury european goods in eastern eurasia alone is huge.
So, while russia loses nothing by letting azeris and armenians murder each other to their heart’s content, completely securing the future wealth of uzbekistan, and shooing away the turks and their isis slaves (who will later mass murder azeri shiite civilians due to their criminal nature), works best for iran and russia jointly ensuring the uzbeks win without turkic support.
Armenian politicians, like belarusian ones, have betrayed russia too much to be trusted and helped. Unless armenia kicks out the americans as a show of good faith.
Somehow, armenia is not aware that no country will weep if it loses and dies against azerbaijan. Stupidity kills very cruelly.
There are many 2nd and 3rd order repercussions that pepe e hasnt tackled yet. He should write another article on azerbaijan on this topic by next month.
Iran power grid is connected to both Azerbaijan and Armenia
Since Pepe provides us with rich, intelligent and up-to-the-minute Sitreps on major and minor global events, processes and conflicts for free, I wanted to plug his new ebook.
Those who want an archive of his works, check out the book and purchase it.
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Thank you Pepe and your friend Mr C for this. A much needed and succinct primer on the Armenian-Azerbaijani problem.
It was hard to see initially the political aims of this particular iteration of the long-running Nagorno-Karabakh conflict but Mr C’s input has cleared much of the fog. Baku desires a negotiation over N-K. Yerevan wants to preserve the status-quo — which was actually kept frozen to Armenia’s advantage by Russia over the years.
So, to put it mildly, Moscow is walking on a geopolitical razor’s edge. Russia needs to exercise restraint and invest in a carefully calibrated balancing act between Armenia and Azerbaijan; must preserve the Russia-Turkey strategic partnership; and must be alert to all, possible US Divide and Rule tactics.
My thoughts exactly. Russia seems to be somewhat tired of Yerevan’s ungrateful behaviour, being taken for granted, and will act on geopolitical terms only with no religious baggage — the Saker mentioned this in his article. As will Iran.
This war is one of a quartet Erdogan is masterminding. He threatens Cyprus and Greece also, for the fourth one.
Syria, Libya and Armenia have been turned into Russian setbacks.
The setbacks in Syria are significantly aided by the persistent presence of the American troops, and the aid sent to terrorists in Idlib, the desert and the Kurds. Russia has to cope with all these, which at times looks coordinated with Erdogan who pays thousands of ISIS and AQ fighters.
Libya was sabotaged by Haftot who refused to follow Moscow’s plans, opened a huge operation to take Tripoli and lost badly. Erdogan moved into the war with technologies that gave the government force a victory thought impossible just a month before Haftot went rogue.
Now Armenia. Another bozo President who refuses to listen to Moscow.
Erdogan is riding high beyond his borders. The question is can he save his economy?
Russia could solve these dilemmas if Erdogan was gone. In fact, likely, if he isn’t gone, there will be no solution to these problems. They all have the quality to linger for years, open wounds that will pain Russia and distract its gains as regional power.
By any estimate, Erdogan is a powerful net minus for Russia. His dream of a second Ottoman Empire is in formation. It’s early. But he is winning. And his actions serve the purpose of the American Hegemon, so the US is not going to get in his way. He is working their plan to contain Russia, weaken the BRI of China and paralyze the Eurasian Integration. Erdogan’s disruptive wars strengthen Israel’s regional hegemonic dreams. So, the US is very pleased with Emperor of Ankara.
It’s almost payback time for Erdogan. The Russian pilot, the Russian Ambassador, the recent roadside bombing that took a Russian general and his aide, an interpreter from the Russian military academy, are scores yet to be settled with Erdogan.
Meanwhile, as Pepe writes, Erdogan is placing geopolitical time bombs along the Turkic language pathways through Caucasus, Central Asia, all the way to Xinjiang. He has the fanatic proxy fighters and bankrolls from Qatar and the West to destabilize Russia and China, and to ignite decades of wars throughout Eurasia.
Erdogan brings war just as the US does. It is time for his reign to end.
“Erdogan brings war just as the US does. It is time for his reign to end.”
What happened when his reign was about to end, that is, his own military couped him?
Oh, right, Russia saved him and has spent the last four years appeasing him in every way it can.
Biswapriya,
The coup in Turkey wasn’t a popular anti-war uprising. It was US/CIA backed regime change. Russia, Syria and Iran did gain from saving Erdogan as he did become cooperative for a while..
I am sure he also instigated this, and it is a huge game changer :
https://avia.pro/news/azerbaydzhan-vypustil-rakety-po-rossiyskim-samolyotam
I never shared the sentiment on this blog that the US Empire is collapsing or declining. In fact the empire is doing very well and advancing. One simple psyop and NS2 stalled! Russia and China don’t have any answers to the cold wars carried out by the US. If they don’t have the solution for Libya, Lebanon and Syria then BRI will be stalled just like NS2. Right now it does not look like Russia is succeeding in Syria. Russia bribed Turkey with Turk Stream and S400. The Turks took everything, slapped Russia in the face and walked away with the trophy. Ukraine and Georgia are the permanent conflicts set up by the US, and Belarus and Nagorno-Karabakh are in the making. Right now Russia is a kind of quiet and overextended just like China. It is amazing to see the US in Syria, with a few hundred troops and minimal effort, can bleed Russia to death, with Turkey’s little help!
In Syria, the US troops are nothing. The US commands tens of thousands of Kurds with terrorists among them clothed in SDF uniforms, ISIS leftovers, probably 4000-8000 at al Tanaf and Hassaka area, Deir Azor and thousands more who can drift over from Iraq into the expansive desert. ISIS is a US operation. In Idlib, there are 50,000-60,000 fighters who want to fight to the death, al Nusra, Uyghurs and other AQ fighters. The Russians and Chinese want to make that desire come true.
So, @convoy, just because you can’t count and obviously misunderstand military operations and how Russia chooses to operate in Syria, this all doesn’t mean Russia isn’t managing the late stages of the Syrian War.
The nemesis of Erdogan is a bullet or plane crash away from resolution. He still doesn’t trust his Air Force. He has put elite troops into harms way very infrequently, using proxy Turkmen and Islamic terrorists who fight when he pays them. He’s going broke, has destroyed his domestic economy and has one ally, Qatar, who don’t fight alongside him. In fact he had to go rescue them a few years ago and permanently station troops there to save the regime from the Saudis which wanted to wipe out Qatar since it failed with the Caliphate.
Yes, the US wants to bleed Russia in Syria. So far, the casualties are all Americans when the two face off. If it gets to actual shooting, the Americans will run to Iraq as the Kalibrs come to hasten their exit.
With just one more S-400 unit into Syria, the Russians can enforce a No Fly Zone from Iraq to the Mediterranean. And the Su-35s can guarantee nothing flies over Syria or Lebanon without Russia permission.
That’s an expensive operation when it goes on for months. So timing it with the entry of China to begin reconstruction projects is one consideration. Of course, it would eliminate Turk air supply into Syria. The convoy entrances would be bombed shut. His troops, the few thousand there would be at the mercy of the Kurds.
As for Erdogan, without export of his tomatoes to Russia and import of Russian tourists, his economy cannot grow. That’s an easy switch Putin has over the Sultan.
AS for Libya, the disaster was the misjudgment of Field Marshal Haftar. The dominant hand Turkey played was swiftly countered by 2 Mig-29s sent to Libya. Russia repainted over their colors and sent to Libya to control the Turks. Syrians flew them.
Erdogan has had a good run of late. He’s clever, but he never solves his own domestic problems. He’s playing a double game with Russia. That historically is the fast track to disaster. Note how many problems get instantly solved if Erdogan is gone. History has its lessons. He is a poor student of history.
Remembered the “coup”? After that “coup” Erdogan purged his military, consolidated his power and prepare for wars which everyone can see unfolding now. And those wars and conflicts only serve the US and no one else. Is someone out there still thinking the US wanted to “take out” the Sultan? Russia tried to contain the Turks with bribery. In return the the US, with minimal efforts, and Turkey are containing Russia with wars and conflicts along her borders. I doubt NS2 will be finished ever; again just some neutral observations here.
You’re delusional. US isn’t containing anyone in Syria. They’re there to rob Syria’s oil resources. You’re overestimating American capabilities in Syria
What can Russia do about it OR what Russia is going to do about it? Wait until US troops withdraw by themselves so Russia and China could rebuild Syria? Remember 1/3 of Syria is occupied by the US and NATO Turkey! Ever heard of US casualty in Syria? Now take look at Russian casualty!
That’s because Russia actually fights a war in Syria whereas the US only supports the terrorists, the rebels and the turks. Russia or the Syrian Army doesn’t attack them either.
What do you want to be afraid of when there are no opponents around?
Your argument doesn’t make any sense
Convoy,
Regarding your comment about S400, Russia sold this weapon to Erdogan (export version, training not yet completed) because Erdogan probably doesn’t want to end up like Allende in the Moneda Presidential Palace being bombed by his own air force. It was part of the Russian package of saving him from US regime change. It’s not a “trophy” to be integrated into NATO military equipment.
SG,
“… saving him from US regime change.”
Turkey’s actions serve US’s interests in North Africa and ME very well!
So no regime change here but maybe in Belarus?
Russians don’t sell their too tier weaponry to foreigners. They keep the best for themselves.
Russians don’t sell their too tier weaponry to foreigners. They keep the best for themselves.
Either way, any “downgraded” versions of the S-400 in Turkish hands are still enough to devastate Syrian, Greek, or Armenian aircraft. Furthermore, it provides Israel & NATO a great opportunity to reverse engineer technology that is far better than whatever NATO produces, so it is still bad.
I don’t think that Russian’s are that much dumb to let their cutting-edge technology slip into the hands of their enemies.
Reverse engineering has been around for a long time. Even the Chinese do that with Russian weapons, but they aren’t as good as Russian ones when it comes to quality. Russia constantly upgrades its arsenal, so it wouldn’t be a problem.
Perhaps you would enjoy a shooting war perhaps even nuclear in Syria which would happen if Putin went after the Americans,as they say a Russian doesen’t take a crap without a plan, so lets just wait and see what Russia has ups it sleeves.!!!
You sem to be missing the fact that turkey is fighting on several frontiers at once with a faltering economy.
They’ve grabbed more than they can chew.
This is definitely a “more will be revealed” situation. I’ve been wondering since the get-go about what was offered to the Azeris. Playing 2nd fiddle to Turkey? dubious. An easy victory? double dubious. If they can be bought by one party, then, why not by another when the time is right? It seems to me that an Iran, Russia, Azerbaijan axis is naturally more beneficial one for them.
Artsakh is Artsakh so that will never be traded away. To whose advantage is a Kashmir II type situation anyway? It would be a terrible bleed on Azerbaijan to hold it with the present population– please do not expect me to believe that the Azeris as victors are going to “play fair”. But perhaps other land and population swaps could be arranged. I suppose Armenia really does not want to be surrounded, cut off from routes to Iran, by Azerbaijan circling to its south either.
Playing for time seems to be the order of the day especially as Erdogan is shaky enough in Turkey these days—maybe this drawn out war will be that which breaks his budget given the total chaos about to take place in the technofascist run USA which will no longer be able to assist him much.
As for all those Jihadis? Maybe Soros and Adelson can join financial forces with the CIA’s black budget to give plausible deniability to their creep along into the Soft Underbelly States. Make it a refugee issue. And of course an anti-Russia crusade.
News : Armenia has withdrawn its ambassador to the occupied Palestinian territories, and has denounced the Israeli regime for supplying weapons to Azerbaijan.
“We have made the decision to call our ambassador for consultations (…) the supplies of ultramodern weapons from Israel to Azerbaijan are especially unacceptable,” as the press secretary of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Armenia, Anna Naghdalyan, announced on Thursday in an information session.
The spokeswoman also denounced that while the international community continues to advocate for the immediate cessation of the conflict in the Nagorno Karabakh region, Israel is trying to fan the flames of the crisis between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
Russia must always regard Israel as a terrorist country.
regards !
Is the West putting pressure on Israel to stop aiding Azerbaijan? Not at all.
This is a very big tell of US policy in the region.
Russia is competing with the Amerikastani Empire to be subservient to the zionist entity.
Biswapriya Purkayastha,
How is it that you seem to be the only one here who sees this?
Two drones were shot down by Iran today. More missiles have landed in Iran since yesterday. And apparently one helicopter was shot down and has crashed in Iran.
Russia is on the other side of the Caucasus mountains, physically isolated from this conflict. And I’m sure Netanyahu has promised Putin that as long as Russia does not involve itself, no missiles will “accidentally” land in Russia.
Russia is not the center of the universe. Everything that happens in the world is not about Russia. Russia is a subservient “ally” of Israel and a US trade partner to the tune of over 30 billion dollars a year.
There will be no US-Russia war. The US is not any kind of threat to Russia. They are working together beautifully, with Russia playing the bad cop, to manipulate US public opinion.
And here’s what the Israelis have to say about the conflict:
https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium.highlight-netanyahu-and-erdogan-in-unlikely-alliance-against-iran-in-nagorno-karabakh-1.9197671
I don’t know why nobody else brings this up since it’s self evident to me, and, obviously, you. Maybe it’s selective blindness. There is none so blind as those who will not see.
Israel can’t attack Russia. To think of such a possibility itself is hilarious.
Israel attacked the United States of America on September 11, 2001, and suffered absolutely no repercussions. Russia is not equal to one toe on the USA’s foot, in terms of gdp or military spending.
Israel attacked the USA in 1967 also. The USS Liberty. Now the best documentary on that attack is now available to be seen. The source of information is from the men on the ship. Its tilted “Sacrificing Liberty”
trunews.com
Hum, nice article. Still I found a slightly different, maybe complementary, narrative:
https://indianpunchline.com/the-time-of-troubles-in-transcaucasia-part-1/
I think P.E. missed some relevant links…
@ Lisbeth Salander
MKB’s take is skewed to overlook Erdogan’s machinations, instead gives us Israel as a major player in the scene.
Not much else of “relevance”.
The Israelis at one time hoped to use Azerbaijan air fields to launch air attacks against Iran.
Pepe is right – the Armenian diaspora in the US is mostly pro-democrat. I know this as I have been among the diaspora in Los Angeles and San Francisco. The huge problem of the US Armenian diaspora is that they substantially internalize western supremacism. They put pressure on Armenia to turn to the US, EU, and NATO, and they don’t like Russia. They get confused and mumble when I point out to them that without the Russian military base the country would be in a two front war and be overrun.
The US backed Pashinyan coup has been a disaster for Armenia. He has allowed subversive western NGOs to flood in and the Pentagon to set up biolabs (at least one and there is evidence of up to six) and he badmouths Russia. The worst of it is that Pashinyan gave Armenians the illusion of having powerful allies in the West when actually they allowed themselves to be played by the West against Russia. Is the West telling Israel to stop weapons shipments to Azerbaijan? Not at all, in fact Israel is rushing supplies in the last three days. Vile Israel is squeezing Armenians out of their quarter in Jerusalem and assisting Azerbaijan to overrun and massacre Armenians. Mr. C is wrong – Azerbaijan will not play nice with Armenians in NK, they will murder them but do it quietly; they won’t do it in the open like they did on the streets of Baku in the 1990’s.
Armenia is in a terrible geopolitical and strategic position between implacable enemies and with few allies and little resources. On top of that it has a long history of making terrible strategic decisions for one disaster after another. I would understand Russia standing back to let Armenia stew in its own sauce but even that won’t do any good. The combination of Pashinyan with the US Armenian diaspora is a poison pill.
That one Russian military base is all that is holding Turkey back from walking over Armenia. In the 1990’s when Turkey was massing to invade Armenia is was Yeltsin that told the Turks if they invaded Armenia they would be at war with Russia. This while the US/UK/EU cried crocodile tears and worked on their pipeline plans for once Armenia was out of the way. They still have those plans.
Correct.
Armenians might be smarter than the Kurds but they make the same foolish mistakes. Sad. :-(
Arius,
Regarding NGOs I saw that the World Food Programme (WFP) is active in Armenia. This NGO needs to change its name to World Spy & Subversion Programme because the food they distribute in the form of “aid” or “school meals” is just a prop.
This NGO was operating in Serbia back in the 1990s. They usually targeted children giving out food and then asking questions about their families and spreading ideology. Twenty years ago we were still raised by actual parents and/or grandparents (not a video screen) so we were taught to be suspicious. Today, however, children are so very gullible. I would advise your friends and family in Armenia to steer clear of the WFP: do not accept their food, do not answer their questions, do not engage with them.
Thanks. I didn’t know about the WFP.
This is a far better analysis than any other on this site. As I have myself said, the idea that Russia can “punish” Armenia into turning back towards it by allowing Azerbaijan to attack Nagorno Karabakh is asinine; if anything the opposite will happen with Armenia rushing into NATO’s arms before Azerbaijan can. Also the prospect of a jihadi headchopper ministate in Russia’s underbelly, protected by the Ottomans, is now fast becoming a fact on the ground.
In addition, Russia finds itself “on a razor’s edge” of its own choice.
First, by bending over backwards to appease Erdogan since (to me inexplicably) saving his bacon in the 2016 coup. Ever since, Erdogan’s been able to get away with anything he wants, and Russia’s response is to sell him S400s, offer SU57s, and Turkstream. It’s like giving your enemy free run of the sharpest knives in your drawer.
Look at this:
If this isn’t blackmail, what is?
Secondly, this whole circus has played out in full public view. If even I, with no resources except the news, could tell instantly that the Ottomans were responsible for the Azeri aggression, I refuse to believe Russian intelligence didn’t know about it. So what exactly was the Greatest Geopolitical Grandmaster Genius the Universe Has Ever Seen doing?
As a consequence, Armenia is finished in Nagorno Karabakh. It can try to escalate matters by attacking Azerbaijan only at its own extreme peril. It can’t survive a battle of attrition against the Ottoman-Azeri-Headchopper Alliance. If Russia attempts to impose a ceasefire at this stage it has no real ability to do so. The least that will happen is a substantial portion, if not all, of Nagorno Karabakh being retaken by Azerbaijan. And then the Ottomans will obligingly garrison it to “protect it from Armenia”.
Let me repeat: the Ottomans are still the biggest and by far, no comparison at all, the best (indeed the only competent) military force in NATO. Despite all the fond hopes of certain people, NATO isn’t about to kick them out. Also,
What people don’t seem to realise is that the Ottomans may be in an economic hole now but they’re just doing what their predecessors five hundred years ago did: wage war to secure economic advantages. Then it was loot of conquered cities. Now it’s loot of natural resources. The Ottomans aren’t flailing around; their wars are far more carefully chosen than that.
In sum: Sultan Erdogan seems to be a far better geopolitical player than the Greatest Grandmaster Genius The Universe Has Ever Seen, Vladimir Putin.
One day we will learn about the real scope of the chess grandmaster’s genius. The archives will open in 20-50 years.
So far we can only speculate on the rumours concerning the huge geopolitical successes of modern Russia, i.e. Georgia in 2008 and Crimea in 2014.
Some facts indicate that both of them happened to be victorious only thanks to operative thinking and acting of the generals, not the politicians (don’t forget the taking of airport in Bosnia by Russian special forces). Followed by giving up Serbia and later assisting the mess in Lybia by Medvedev.
Let’s remember Putin as the one who enjoyed the Beijing Olympics while his troops were ambushed in Osetia. Not mentioning how he screwed for years by just watching Ukraine to deteriorate…
And no one please tell me about the high game in Belarus – all arranged to drive it in Russia’s hands? Really, with all stakes of Moscow placed on the moronic Lukashenko? NS2 depending on the health of Navalnyi surviving the honey trap?
How does it come that Moscow still has no friends or allies being attracted? Except some silly dictators who bow down only temporarily just to use Russia when stacking up their price to the West…
A sad story of our era indeed. People of Russia! Let the patriotic generals rule, not the rotten oligarchs.
You’re overestimating erdogan and turkey here. Don’t forget that countries that grabbed more than they can chew rushed to disaster.
Azeri oil won’t help covering all the war expenses for turkey. Even in Libya, more than 2/3 of the landmass is under the control of Haftar. Turkey doesn’t have much power in Libya.
Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh have every right to self determination and to live in an independent homeland.
There is no possibility for Armenians to live in peace under Azeri rule, a hostile dictatorial country that will persecute & forcibly exile Armenians
Even if international law recognizes Nagorno-Karabakh as an Azerbaijani territory, Armenian population have the right to live in their homeland. And there are many historical and pragmatic issues that prevent a solution to the conflict or a reintegration into Azerbaijan
1) Azerbaijan used to be Persian territory & then Russian Empire / Soviet territory, with an Azerbaijani soviet socialist republic firstly created by USSR. After USSR abruptly imploded, a new independent Azerbaijan state was declared. But these borders and the inclusion of Nagorno-Karabakh was a soviet decision and does not reflect the will of Armenian population who are the majority of Nagorno-Karabakh.
2) Borders in USSR were sometimes abruptly created or changed and do not reflect national self determination (such as the Crimea handover to Soviet Ukraine in 1954 etc).
After USSR dissolution, there were many minorities that were left in newly independent republics (such as the ethnic Russian in Baltic States, Kazakhstan, Caucasus, Ukraine etc)
There are also many ethnic conflicts and border disputes in the post soviet space.
Abkhazia and Ossetia were legally part of Georgia but are now recognized as independent by Russia
The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is very similar to Abkhazia and South Ossetia conflict or even Transnistria conflict in Moldova
3) Even if Russia is militarily allied to Armenia, Russia will refrain from intervening due to trying to maintain good relations with Azerbaijan.
Russia only intervened when countries became hostile, following anti-Russian policies and becoming pro-Western
As Georgia became more anti-Russian, Russia finally intervened and recognized Abkhazia and South Ossetia
As Ukraine became more anti-Russian, Russia intervened and rejoined Crimea into Russian Federation.
Only by bringing back internationalism bolshevique this chaos can be overcame. We are living in a epoch of wars, civil wars but unfortunaly not of revolutions, epoch of Capitalism decadence, of Imperialism in its ugliest moment
Looks like the author wrote this article in haste
This line
“It’s no wonder both Baku and Yerevan got the message and are firmly denying anything happened”. Instead of “Yerevan” should be “Ankara”
and the author speaks about “Azerbaijani gains” not defining what those gains are ? They are getting slaughtered in the battlefield.
And no one in Armenia seems to want this war to end. Azeris have a total blackout of social media and most of the internet. Why?
This hardly seems the case that Armenia is going to allow this war just to end without substantial territorial gains.
And the author ignores another elephant in the room. The Arab factor. Armenia’s leaders have been talking with anti Turkish Arab leaders who have every incentive to pour money and even weapons into Armenia in order to check the Turks.
There’s the Iranian factor too. The Iranians may have a business relationship with the Turks but in Syria they are defacto enemies. The Turks are still a NATO Empire tied to Washington and Azerbaijan is getting weapons from Israel. The Iranians don’t want NATO (or Israel) on it’s border with Armenia or Azerbaijan.
People speak with the assumption that Armenia doesn’t have much options here. Erdogan has threatened Armenia of Armenia attacks Azerbaijan. Here is what Armenia can do. Do a full scale military attack against Azerbaijan and conquer a lot of territory like in 1990’s and see if Erdogan is bluffing. If Erdogan’s Turkey attacks Armenia either directly or through landing Turkish divisions and armor in Azerbaijan, then Armenia can invoke the Russia-Armenia mutual help clause. Russia will either come to Armenia’s help directly and slap and humiliate Turkey and stop the war, OR, Russia can dump Armenia, in which case Armenia can sue for peace with Azeris and Turks and return most of the land and kick out Russians from Armenia once and for all. Or the long term option for Armenia is to make some kind of temporary peace with Azerbaijan and secretly develop nuclear weapons over the next 10 years then close Russian military bases in Armenia. Both of the options are very difficult, but doable.
One of the worst analysis I have read. I almost fell on the floor laughing. In one of the paragraphs Mr. C says Azeris will be model of liberators, then the article goes on to tell you that the Azeris have imported jihadist, the very same jihadist that have been terrorizing Syria and its diverse population. I doubt they will play nice with the Christian Armenian population. Also, the author is unaware of the fact that the minorities within AZ are rebelling and are refusing to be draft into Azeri army and go to the front lines. Poorly written and very surface level bs. Devoid of facts.
Second, the hit on a Armenia SU-25 within Armenian territory was not denied or covered up by Armenia. In fact, it was well documented and a mini documentary was released on the pilot. Again, incoherent and poorly written article. These are the just the few surface level incoherency.
Are you the sean that post over on the Unz review the one that they labeled a troll.if you aren’t I apologize but you post the same way.!!!!
Many people have some expectations from Russia … Russia this, Russia that … why Russia does not do this, why Russia does not do that…
I really can not see what Russia can do
To support politically and diplomatically Armenians on Nagorny Karabakh issue … Russia cannot do that …NK is officially part of Azerbaijan
To fight on Armenian side for Nagorny Karabakh … impossible, it would be treated as aggression against Azerbaijan
Russia can defend Armenia and help them with weapons, intelligence data and to protect sky above Armenia but against Turks
Russia can offer to be diplomatic mediator for negotiations in order to achieve some piece agreement and political solution but it is impossible because this problem is unsolvable by political and diplomatic way.
Two sides do not want any agreement and do not want to stop fighting
And Russia can do nothing here. Just to let them fight and that’s it.
Armenia is the modern day version of a naive village girl who had an honest hard working man as a boyfreind (RS) but was seduced by an out of towner who seduced her with bright beads and cheap jewelry.
She has since realised that that flashy bf with the cheap suit and fake tan is actually a drug riddled impotent dandy (US)
And very soon the reality will set in when her teary eyed texts to her old bf go unanswered..
The NATO angle might be possible. But I think its more likely that Turkey instigated the war to get leverage on Russia in Libya and Syria. Its a conflict he can always inflame, even after a new concat line is established, to get back to the Russians.
However, Erdogan is a spent force in Europe. While Merkel still holds back, Macron is more eager to intervene on Armenia’s side than Putin. So Turkey not only has to watch out for Russia, but for the EU as well. If Turkey gets involved militarily, its very likely lights out for its export economy. Turkey’s exports to the EU are around 50% of its overall exports. EU sanctions on Turkey will tank what is left of its economy.
It all depends on the Azeris sticking to the script. If they hit Armenia proper, Armenia can use that to destroy the gas pipeline through Georgia to Turkey. What will Erdogan do next? That is his red line. But the stupid Azeris served the casus belli to Armenia.
If Russia sticks to being patient, others can do enough unforced errors for Russia to capitalize on.
There is a certain length a country can go with its capabilities, resources and the allies it has.
turks have grabbed more than they can chew. That’s with a faltering economy and with no reliable allies.
Their downfall wouldn’t be so far. Remember what happened to countries that That started fights on several fronts at once
Your assumption is correct. Russia is waiting and examining the situation right now. Remember how it went in Belarus first.
It is worrying that there is no America on the scene. Usually, the Pentagon picks a point on the map and sends a lot of soldiers and equipment and declares itself competent and everyone freezes sh*t in the a*s. That’s good with Americans even though it doesn’t end positively for everyone. The Russians, of course, play “chess” that boring brain game (figure skating is more interesting) that doesn’t yield any “tangible” results. VVP would still have to be careful and decide once and for all which figures he wants to play with. White or black. It seems to me that some of his pieces might decide to leave the chessboard on their own.
America is slowly giving in (intentionally or unintentionally – yet to be established) and there will be more and more local wars in the next few years that could easily end in one big one.
This is so funny because the Americans said that without their leadership there would be conflicts all over. And they were right.
Sanjin
I think another conflict is brewing in Kyrgyzstan right now as their election approaches. And the EU and cia are setting it up.
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/6214920.html
MoA is has a good analysis of the situation:
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2020/10/is-the-war-over-nagorno-karabakh-already-at-a-stalemate.html
Artsakh was annexed by Lenin, not Stalin. Stalin didn’t come to power as leader of the USSR until 1929….
The UN resolutions against Armenian and Artsakh are challenged by Armenians. How can anyone honor the governing of a nation that no longer exists? How does international law conclude that USSR divisions remain in effect when there is no more USSR? What is the legal precedent?
And how does the world ignore the precedent is condoned when Israel just up and invaded another sovereign territory? In that case, there was no DNA evidence (and still isn’t) that Jews ever occupied Palestine (or that they are actually God’s chosen people and that God gave them the land).
Yet the international community condoned murder and terrorism on the part of Jews. Yet you, like others, cite UN resolutions against Artsakh? Wow. Bizarre is not the word….
You also missed an important event. Putin offered to station a division of the Red Army in Artsakh. Pashinyan, being the moron he is, refused and rebuked Putin. So now Putin is going to let Armenia bleed….
IMHO, Pepe should not just rely on “C” for an understanding of the genesis of the wars and claims of ethnic cleansing in Nagorno-Karabagh, but also contemporary studies done 25 or more years ago, including by the British commission chaired by Baroness Caroline Cox. See for example, http://sumgait.info/caroline-cox/karabakh-eng.htm and http://sumgait.info/caroline-cox/ethnic-cleansing-in-progress/contents.htm