By Batko Milacic for the Saker Blog
Amid numerous discussions about the future of Ukraine – a country that has been unable to form a single nation in 30 years of independence, and is torn apart by interethnic, linguistic and economic contradictions, Europe should ask itself just what Ukraine really means to it. And the answer will be the same – a buffer zone, because this clearly reflects Ukraine’s geopolitical role in relations with NATO and the EU. The Alliance needs Ukraine as a buffer zone.
During the early 1990s, when Ukraine was not yet torn apart by civil war, NATO was seriously eyeing this former Soviet republic. As for Russian president Boris Yeltsin, he also left the possibility for Russia to become a member of NATO. In 1994, NATO signed a framework agreement with Kiev as part of the Partnership for Peace initiative.
Five years later, Ukraine demonstrated its “pro-Atlantic” slant by supporting NATO’s operation in the Balkans. On June 12, 1999, Kiev even closed the country’s airspace for Russian planes flying to Pristina for several hours. That move caused an angry backlash from many Ukrainians, who consider themselves a part of the Orthodox Slavic world. And still, the first small step towards Euro-Atlantic integration seemed to have been made.
There is no place for failed states in the Alliance
Twenty-seven years on, Ukraine is a fragmented country, with a crumbling economy, a corrupt government and a vague foreign policy. Its biggest foreign policy breakthrough was gaining a “visa-free” status, which gives Ukrainian citizens a chance to look for illegal jobs in prosperous European countries without the need to apply for entry visas. That said, all the assistance Ukraine got from the United States and Europe did not help it to bring back Crimea or gain victory over its own citizens in Donbass. Moreover, Brussels and Washington have strong doubts about the country’s defense capability. The fact is that of all the post-Soviet countries NATO was smart enough to accept only the former Soviet Baltic republics, which spent 2 percent of their GDP on defense – a great deal of money considering their small budgets (for comparison, Belgium spends 0.9 percent and Hungary 1.27 percent).
With Ukraine’s official defense outlays of at least 5.93 percent of GDP (2021) the country should be a mighty military power not afraid of anyone and a welcome new member for NATO. However, military supplies have long become a source of easy money for the country’s political elites, and the change of presidential teams did not change this a tiny bit. Ukraine keeps getting all imaginable foreign assistance, which is written off, disappears on the front line of a smoldering war and is resold to third countries. Meanwhile, despite its wealth of unresolved problems, Kiev keeps knocking on NATO’s door, apparently hoping that Brussels will help sort them out.
Ukraine’s main role is that of a buffer zone
In fact, the only role Ukraine can hope for is that of a buffer zone. In the European geopolitical model, the conflict with Ukraine is forcing Russia to put on hold its aggressive intensions in Europe, and having snatched yet another chunk of Ukrainian territory, the Russians will take some time to digest it. Kiev is certainly not happy about such a scenario and in June, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy appealed to NATO with a demand to immediately accept the country into the alliance. He emphasized that NATO membership will be the only way to end the conflict in Donbass. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg promised that someday Ukraine will become a member of the alliance, but this will not happen overnight. Naturally enough, Ukraine’s pro-presidential media ignored that latter part of Stoltenberg message and started describing in glowing terms the joys of an early entry into the Alliance. And this despite Russia’s firm opposition to NATO’s expansion, which means that Ukraine’s entry into the Alliance would automatically entail active measures by Russia to ensure its own security.
Realizing full well that neither NATO nor the EU are eager to take in Ukraine any time soon, President Zelensky and his administration started portraying Ukraine as a “Shield of Europe”. Well, this propaganda ploy, intended for foreign and domestic consumption, might work for some time for some EU countries, which remain jittery about the imaginary picture of Putin’s tanks racing down Europe’s highways. And again, the Ukrainian right-wingers will have a new reason to pride themselves on their role as “defenders of Europeans” against the “Russian hordes”. But why on earth should Putin want to seize Europe? Who would he be selling gas to? What kind of a threat is Moscow posing to Brussels then?
Gas blackmail? But this is “just business,” and there are other gas suppliers out there. Meanwhile, the “Shield” is costing Europe a great deal and the price tag keeps going up. Kiev demands to preserve gas transit for itself, wants gas supplies at preferential prices and new sanctions against Moscow. At the same time, Ukrainian politicians insult their neighbors, make no attempts whatsoever to rein in the domestic ultra-right, who pose a threat to the whole of Europe, and are mired in corruption. So whether NATO and the Russian Federation really need a buffer zone is a big question. What we certainly do not need, however, is a “Shield” that we pay for from our own pockets…
European geopolitical model – what is this? I don’t understand it. As a European, I don’t have any geopolitical model.
Yes, you do! It is written in Washington. And you europeans do not have the balls to get free.
Why is Ukraine not in NATZO? Follow the money: Ukraine can afford neither the entrance fee to the club nor pay the annual dues.
But why on earth should Putin want to seize Europe?
No offense, but I don’t think Batko understands what both Europe and Brzezinski understand. And that is without Ukraine, Russia is not a Power. Not even without Kazakhstan. Her people live there. It is demographically weak, and it leaves NATO to determine how certain ethnicities will be determined. Well, I guess you know from Serbian history, Batko, what happened with Croats and Bosniaks or Albanianized or Bulgarianized Serbs. The biggest massacres in the last century, the century of genocid against Serbs, were committed by former brothers because of the short-sightedness of politicians. So if Russia doesn’t want to take them in her arms, then they will make them the biggest killers of the Russians. At the same time when they drink tea or coffee or beer in Berlin, Paris, London. They would finished the work for them that they failed to do on their own. It is not without Tajikistan either, because it cannot influence the events in the Hindu Kush, where the three nuclear powers are already in the knot. It is neither without energetic control of Krasnovodsk nor without Baku. NATO knows the same as China, that Russia would have to make the Russian world to become a third player, which includes certain parts of the former USSR. Instead of the Tzaristic imperial feud or the Soviet ideological brotherhood. These parts independently survived the fall of the USSR and are on their feet again today. How much? That’s the question. Hudson explained, for example, how much ravenue remains to Kazakhstan or Kyrgyzstan from the natural resources they sell. Not so much. Governments of individual states are week to confront lobies and interests of international organistaions. But together, this is another story. Near Angloamericans there come China with her interests. And I am pretty shure that they are not proRussian eather. The Silk Road without the control of these parts can easily bypass Russia. There is nothing from the liberal lie and Lisbon Vladivostok story and that is why Russia must work for an alternative or it will be a second-class power.
“And that is without Ukraine, Russia is not a Power.” But Russia is a Power without Ukraine.
It is best to do little. Wait until the contract to transport gas through Ukraine runs out. Then make sure that Europe has the choice: either give money to the Ukraine, or give food and housing to Ukrainian refugees.
…and we all know the Brussel Sprouts’ position on refugees. So, they get a service by not paying.
Ukraine is a basket-case run by a corrupt Nomenklatura and the educated youth are running away. Poland eyes Galicia and Lwow and stirring the factions is key to creating a failed state – the preferred US Model for the Middle East and former USSR until the Siloviki rescued it under Putin and reconstituted the Russian Nation State.
Ukraine lacked a national identity outside the USSR and lost its economic strength once the Russian Federation repatriated defence and technology enterprises.
All Ukraine had otherwise was trusteeship over Crimea which ceased once the USSR collapsed and Russia was de jure successor State.
Western Europe certainly does not want Ukrainian agricultural output destroying its feather-bedded agricultural-political lobby and Ukraine cannot afford to be a dumping ground for EU exports. Turkey wants to keep it unstable.
Ukrainians have been screwed
What is Ukraine’s position in the Financial Empire’s global construct? How will the Empire absorb Ukraine in its institutional framework (EU, NATO,…)?
The Financial Empire started establishing its kleptocrats in Ukraine to capture and control it since early 1990s. The Empire owns many assets in Ukraine and its objective has been to install administrations that implement its plans. Ukraine, like Afghanistan is a key bridge between Russia and Europe. It provide fertile lands, cheap resources & workforce, ,… The Empire playbook calls for Ukraine to be captured.
Russia-Vladimir Putin disrupted Empire’s plan in 2014 and forced its game to plan B. The Empire has its administrators installed since then and ensured that they don’t implement the Minsk agreement and has kept it afloat through IMF loans. It doesn’t care about Ukraine’s crumbling economy. Its lackey kleptocrats can buy assets cheaply. The Empire is master at playing boom-bust waves while doing socio-engineering.
The Financial Empire doesn’t care about rules, which it makes. So Ukraine will be absorbed by it at the time of its choosing and institutionalized. What will Russia do then? What do Ukrainians what: Suzerainty or Sovereignty? How are they working towards achieving it? Is Russia being proactive or a follower?
https://wikispooks.com/wiki/Document:Battleground_Ukraine
Kyiv’s creative revolution, Maidan dreaming
https://youtu.be/A62KTwbyU6s
It’s already occupied by the US, which has de facto military bases there. And who knows, maybe missiles 5 minutes from Moscow.
To assume that Ukraine is not a NATO dagger aimed at Russia’s heart, based on presumed disadvantages is not a chance Russia should take.
The USSR “assumed” all sorts of things from the West and was destroyed.
Don’t assume anything from NATO.
DPR-LNR are investigating potentially 10 mass burial sites as victims of Ukrops….that might add to the long list of crimes against the Ukraine to that has been brought by Russia recently.
https://dan-news.info/en/society/dpr-authorities-informed-of-10-alleged-mass-burial-sites/
Ukraine’s membership in NATO is little or not important at all, at this moment Russia should have already engaged in military defense of Donbass, but it is not reacting, and it should not have withdrawn forces from the Ukrainian border last time, and that encouraged Uki to attack.
Totally disagree about Ukraine as buffer zone for the Alliance.
It is and will be a platform for launching threats and attacks. Why did NATO want Crimea? For the beaches? Just a big R&R resort on the Black Sea?
Get real. Ukraine is now and will be much worse if it is NATO turf.
Ukraine absorbs 40% of the military budget expenses of the RF MOD budget, if you include the military exercises all year long to keep the Southern and Western Districts read for instant war.
It is a passive object in the scheme. Compliant like any poor prostitute or old, gay male hustler, they serve whatever the client wants to pay for.
All the other issues are very distant and tangental.
They have killed over 13,000 Russian speakers and NATO and EU would like to multiply that by 10 or 100 times.
The raison d’être of NATO is to destroy the Russian Federation. Ukraine is a weapon, platform, strategic asset in that goal.
interesting documentary re 30 years of Ukraine seeking independance
via
https://www.rt.com/russia/538722-ukraine-30-years-independence-documentary/
which summarises the film
“The movie details how civil war and the ensuing chaos further crippled the economy, incentivizing many to escape poverty and rampant corruption and look for a better life elsewhere.
“The result of the country’s development in 30 years is the loss of industry, loss of population, loss of territory, confrontational relations with all countries with which Ukraine has a border, and defending other countries’ interests without taking into account the interests of its own people,” Derkach said. “So what are we celebrating exactly?”
It seems more likely NATO want to install a Military Base in Ukraine. It is also using Ukraine to creates anxiety in Russia using their Ukronazis such that if Russia move in NATO will scream Ah, I told you Russia has designs thereby justifying its existence. It like paying cat and mouse.
Basically, Ukraine is a failed state and Russia should shut off its Gas supplies passing through Ukraine despite what members of the European parliament says. In this process it must preserve those European who respects Russia like Hungary among others.
“There is no place for failed states in the Alliance”
Really??? NATO has created so many failed states. This is what one calls chickens have come home to roost!
The NATO alliance is the most warmongering institution today! I think Author somehow believes that NATO represents civilization. The sad reality NATO by the way they behave on international stage do not represent civilization in the slightest. Quite the opposite!
Corruption? Give me a break! US Europe are extremely corrupt. They just do the corruption legally. In addtion I cannot imagine anything more corrupt than Pentagon wasting trillions of dollars on fultile war, while infrastructure rots at home! Talk about hypocricy. Clean up you own yard first! As Jesus said: “O hypocrite take a beam out of your eye, than pointing a beam in someone else’s.”
You’re quite correct , NATO is the biggest terrorist organisation on the planet by far. 90% of the genocide in this world is directly or indirectly attributed to NATO/Western Bankers, From the Brit-Irish potato famine, their East-India Company’s Indian mass genocide, right through to their present day sanctions in Afghanistan, Yemen and Syria . . . . spreading more death, darkness and despair.
I adore Djoles fantastic theories that project what individual states will do IF, if, if, somefacts happen. Economic , political, even Media-driven moves ..
and without Ukraine Russia is no Russia, without Dagestan …etc How dantesque.
And the underlying hypothesis is that the errors of yeltsin times with regard to neighbors will be repeated by current Russia, regardless of the last 20 years experience.
Zbigniev Brzezinski-The grand chessboard, not mine. Probably he knows what is talking about. Otherwise never would happpend what Realy did. Dont you think so? Putin-De Goal’s project of a united Europe to Vladivostok failed. Years are wasted. Ukraine is economically destroyed in order for shareholder flows to pass. In which European transnational companies also have a division. Did it pay off for Russia not to react when it was needed at the beginning of the Maidan and to support Yanukovych, who was already seeking reciprocity in the sale of Ukrainian goods on the EU market, which the latter refused? Especially after the first experience with the first Maidan in 2004? Are the people today more or less warmed to the Ukrainian nation after so many years of brainwashing and the Anglo-Zio media? The hatred that has developed will last for generations. Why? To move the engine and aircraft industry to Russia? Do you think that the Russian leadership did not know how everything would end? We’ll see what will be left of Ukraine in the end? If they sell their people there, I claim nobody, but nobody will no longer take them as serious allies because they will not trust them the way the world do not trust the US and the interests of their transnational companies.
Forward stationing of intermediate missiles in the Ukraine is the American version of hypersonic missiles that can reach Moscow in minutes. LOL
Do you remember when they were discussing Ukraine coming to the G789?
It was considered the most promising piece of the old Soviet Union, on its way to being an economic power the size of France.
Boy did they blow it.
Russian land forces’ movements in October
https://rochan-consulting.com/russian-land-forces-movements-in-october/
31/10/21
Extracts:
Author:-Konrad Muzyka
Ukraine is not a “buffer zone”. Ukraine is Russian territory.
We don’t say that Texas is a “buffer zone” between Mexico and U.S.
Texas is U.S. territory.
Ukraine is Russian territory that must return to Russia.
You are confusing “is” and “should”.
In realpolitik, there’s only “is” and “may” — people even half as cynical as those who get anything done on that level reserve “should” for motivating armchair cheerleaders.
The survival of Ukraine, at least as a state, is to start some military conflict with Putin´s Russia &—–lose it. The script is there everybody to see: Only giving an ugly face to Russia that the failed state of Ukraine could carry on receiving financial contributions from the Otanish West.
I’ve come to the realization that NATO is actually not sorrounding Russia, but rather Germany, NATO is a bigger threat to Germany than it is to Russia, but Europe is blind and in slumber.
I think Ukraine is more than welcome into NATO – by NATO. I therefore disagree with your premise. It is precicely because NATO has become more involved in the civil war in the Donbass, that Putin has decided to act diplomatically by amassing troops on the border with Ukraine. He has been watching Ukraine ‘drifting’ towards NATO membership, and he’s not going to tolerate it. He’s seen Ukraine become neoliberalised and thereby impoverished through the privatisation of its public utilities. The West is asset-stripping Ukraine, as they did in Russia under Yeltsin’s regime. Putin has decided that this is a good time to carry out the invasion of Ukraine, and I’d be surprised if he doesn’t carry it out – and successfully. There isn’t much NATO can do militarily; the supply lines are long, and Putin would be in Kiev before NATO could organise itself.