https://southfront.org/why-s-300-in-syria-not-being-used-against-israeli-aircraft/
Written and produced by SF Team: J.Hawk, Daniel Deiss, Edwin Watson
There has been considerable speculation in recent months concerning reasons why the S-300 air defense systems supplied to the Syrian Arab Army by the Russian Federation have yet to fire a shot in anger at Israeli aircraft encroaching on its airspace and launching ordnance against a variety of targets on Syria’s territory. This video attempts to explore a reasonably complete range of explanations. On the one hand, the S-300 batteries in Syria operate under a handicap of operational and political restrictions. However, it would be a mistake to believe that just because missiles are not being launched, that the weapons in question are ineffective.
Israel’s Human Shields
One crucial aspect of Israeli aerial operations is their use of civilian air traffic and also US-led coalition operations to shield their aircraft against Syrian air defenses. It is noteworthy that Russian cruise missile strikes, for example, are invariably preceded by international notifications and closures of relevant airspace in order to prevent tragedies. Israel has not followed similar procedures and has frequently sent its combat aircraft into airspace used by civilian airliners over the Mediterranean and Lebanon. Considering the “international reaction” that would have inevitably followed in the event of a Syrian or Russian air defense shoot-down of a civilian airliner, it is rather likely that rules of engagement
used by the Russia-led coalition forces in Syria include strict prohibitions against engaging hostile aircraft when there is even a remote danger to civilian aircraft. The loss of Russian Il-20 with its entire crew to a Syrian air defense missile clearly shows the dangers of engaging remote targets in a crowded airspace.
The Lebanese Doormat
Few examples illustrate the hypocrisy of Western powers’ supposed belief in the sanctity of national sovereignty better than its condoning of near-constant Israeli violations of Lebanese airspace. While that country’s territorial sovereignty is rarely challenged by Israel largely thanks to Hezbollah’s ability to inflict severe casualties on the IDF, neither Hezbollah nor the Lebanese military possess an air force or an air defense system capable of doing the same for the country’s airspace. This allows Israeli aircraft to use Lebanon’s terrain features, specifically the mountain ranges flanking the Bekaa Valley, as a shield against long-range air defense systems. Israeli aircraft using stand-off munitions such as the SDB or Delilah are able to position themselves close to their targets by flying below the Syrian radar horizon, then popping up to launch their GPS-guided weapons before dropping down below the horizon to return to base. In order to deny Israel that ability, Syria and Russia would have to extend their air defense network to the Bekaa Valley and/or patrol it using their own fighter aircraft, a measure that would likely provoke “international condemnation” and risk a massive escalation of the conflict. By the same token, the “international community” has imposed a de-facto embargo on the provision of modern weapons systems of any kind to the state of Lebanon, rendering it unable to defend itself against Israeli incursions.
Russian “Equidistance”
Further complicating matters is the fact that the Russian foreign policy is attempting an extremely difficult task of maintaining reasonably good relations with both Israel and Iran in order to achieve its foreign policy objectives and bring the war in Syria to a successful conclusion. It really is a testimony to the skill and perseverance of Russian diplomats that it has managed to remain in good standing with both of these states. No other major power can claim a similar success. But the downside of this kind of diplomacy is that it makes Russia, and therefore, by extension Syria (over whose national air defense system Russia exercises considerable control simply in order to safely operate its own aircraft) unwilling to engage Israeli aircraft except in the extreme cases of Israel attacking Russian bases or assets in the area. Israel, for its part, has refrained from striking Russian and high-value Syrian targets which does suggest there exists something akin to an understanding between Russia and Israel that was reached in the wake of the aforementioned loss of the Il-20. That loss led to a serious, though apparently temporary, deterioration of Russia-Israel relations. Fortunately Israel’s leaders value Russia’s good will, which is evidenced by Netanyahu’s nine meetings with Vladimir Putin in the space of 3 years and so far have been unwilling to risk even their brand-new F-35s against the S-300s. The combination of these political factors has limited Israel’s attacks against Syrian territory, which is also a contributing factor to the apparent idleness of the S-300 batteries.
The Iran Factor
As if these problems were not enough, it doesn’t help matters that Iran is pursuing a range of objectives of its own, which may not be consistent with Syrian and Russian interests. One visible example of the relatively low level of trilateral cooperation was the abrupt cancellation of the permission given to the Russian Aerospace Forces to use an airbase on Iranian territory to enhance the effectiveness of bombers operating from Russia against targets in Syria. While Iran’s efforts to ensure its security vis-à-vis the United States, Saudi Arabia, and Israel are understandable, given the brutal nature of the power struggle in the region, in practical terms it means that Russia’s leadership does not feel an obligation to protect Iranian assets in Syria every time Israel attacks them. There certainly is no evidence of any security agreement between Russia and Iran suggesting a commitment to mutual defense. The dependence on Iran-provided or Iran-supported manpower in the form of IRGC troops, Hezbollah, or Shia militias has moreover meant that Russia had relatively few levers of influence over Iranian policies in the region, since Iran’s ability and willingness to put “boots on the ground” in Syria made it an indispensable part of that loose alliance. To the extent that there exists an understanding between Russia and Iran in matters regarding Syria, it seems to consist of Russia giving Iran a more or less free hand to do as it pleases, in return for Iran not expecting Russian air cover for its activities which in turn allows Russia to remain on good terms with Israel whose goodwill it definitely needs to end the war in Syria.
Conclusion
While the situation remains relatively stable with few escalation risks, it cannot be said it is a satisfactory state of affairs because considerable ambiguities remain and will remain for the foreseeable future. Iranian forces in Syria will remain indispensable to that country’s security for as long as US forces remain in Syria and the status of Syria’s northern provinces controlled by insurgent groups supported by Turkey remains unresolved. Until these issues are addressed, the S-300 batteries in Syria will continue to play their part in maintaining this uneasy equilibrium.
the russians sent it there just to scare the israelis. a “scarecrow” tactic but the israelis are not scared. they keep on bombing syria rendering the S300s completely useless! and now the flimsy excuses, hiding behind civilian airliners, lebanon’s airspace etc etc. why not give air defense to lebanon if s300s can be given to syria?
@Anon — the one who wrote: “why not give air defense to Lebanon?”
Be careful what you wish for, it might come true. — Ancient Greek Proverb.
@Anonymous: Yeah, that sucks because I too would love to see some shekelian birds falling down with blue nice sky of Golan height as the background. That victory would boost moral of Syrian and Iranian side, and nice trophy for Russia if it were F16 / F22. I do not know about Shekelian side, but their PR surely gotta work around the clock. Also, it is not scarecrow, it is an insurance for Damascus to avoid getting targeted by tel aviv.
@Dr. NG Maroudas: that’s good idea but can Lebanon be trusted? I mean at least they got some support from Hezbollah for now. Thanks.
Iran is not doing as it pleases in Syria, Iran is doing as Assad pleases, by invitation. Iran is already under increasing threat from Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the U.S. The U.S. Has made it known that it strongly opposes Russia, which Iran fears, I would conclude through sheer reasoning, would set the stage for an attack by the trilogy of terror. I would guess that Iran is also uncomfortable to a degree of Russia’s willingness to placate the Israeli government in what is undeniably multiple and continuous invasions of foreign sovereign nations in the region. Even meeting with Netenyahu is very perplexing, since he is a known liar, back stabber, and manipulator.
Meeting with Netenyahu from a foreign standpoint gives the appearance that Russia validates Israel’s continuous reign of terror.
I would guess that Iran is also nervous about Putin’s willingness to give legitimacy to MbS also. I don’t think that they would expect Russia to invade or attack either Israel or Saudi Arabia, but it is difficult to trust a nation enough to place weapons on your land, while meeting with their enemies while they are not present.
I can also understand Russia wanting to try to be diplomatic, but diplomacy does not work with tyrants.
I’ve been reading about the problems with Israel and its neighbors for over 40 years.
If diplomacy was an effective method for dealing with Israel and Saudi Arabia, israel wouldn’t be invading other countries and occupying stolen land, which they have claimed as their national right, and Saudi Arabia would nt be attempting to incite war against Iran and Yemen, through the UAE, and Saudi Arabia would not be training terrorists. I did not include the U.S. in this since Russia and the U.S. are not even engaging in any diplomacy at all, which is at least more honest than what Israel and Saudi Arabia are doing, and I believe that it is under the heavy handed threats of Israel and Saudi Arabia that the U.S. is not engaging diplomatically with Russia, from Trump’s own explicit desires in his election, which were not just rhetoric, but sincere.
With Israel, it’s never enough, they will just keep stringing you along, until you’ve lost everything, including your own reputation.
Real answer is the Russians are afraid of loosing a war, especially with volatile ‘nutcases’ on the American side.. who might overreact by design
Russia is more interested in developing , it’s strategy is to develop for the impeding Major War ,Russia has a number of irons in the fire . which are in various stages of development it would be imprudent of Russia to spoil
it’s preparations by creating a reason for NATO to come to Israels aid prematurely , There is a fine line to walk
Russia is going to confront NATO at a time of Russia’s choosing , Israel is just fly droppings on the plan (irritating but not a major consideration ).
Essentially the Americans are weakening every day a little more ,Russia and China are strengthening .
The people analyzing the situation in Germany are very aware of the impeding economic down turn ,the rise of a new GOLD backed order , that will orchestrate , a realignment in the world , The Germans ( think Gas ) are particularly aware of their need of Russian Raw materials and the Silk Route .
At the end of this year /New Year there will be I expect a much clearer picture of the preparations and the logistics ,being planned .
The Saker is a brilliant analysist , I am sure he is well aware of impeding developments , ( Which remain in his head ,) 2020 and the following years will bring a plethora of seamingly new developments .
A lot of people in the west are becoming increasingly aware of Israel’s interests in the USA , it could well bring it;s downfall .
A thousand excuses dont hide the truth. Russia messing up a sale of S-300 to Assad.
Give Assad what he bought. Then Kremlin dont need all these excuses jumping up and down and killing their own Russian Servicemen in Syria.
Assad can handle it. Kremlin can put the blame on Assad and say he did it. Assad has the backbone to save Russian Servicemen.
The “Russians” are only interested in their money from Saudi S400 contract.
Its obvious from the comments that people are starting to lose faith in Russia.
I dont know if people are losing faith …. I sense as has been stated so often that Russia is walking a very very fine line to balance all powers in the middle east….
We must not forget that the Kremlin – a rational actor …. is dealing with – an irrational actor Washington …. Thus international relations theory is ….. being discredited …
So far a super hot war has not broken out between these two huge opponents … and the probable end of life on earth….
But is the US an irrational actor; or do they merely want the Russians to think they are an irrational actor? It’s a game of double bluff. If they believe the US is an irrational actor threatening to launch a first nuclear strike against Russia then appeasement is not going to work. Sooner or later the American bluff has to be called. The sooner the better in fact. Then we will find out how ‘irrational’ the US and its vassals are. As Crooke said in the interview with Lavelle Russia (and China) are being pushed into a corner. This will inevitably result in the war with the US which they both wanted to avoid. As Putin himself has said, ‘if a fight is coming, it’s best to get your blow in first’ or words to that effect. The long retreat that started in Berlin, has to stop sometime, or the alternatives are conditions of surrender to the neo-con crazies. It’s a tough call but it’s the only one.
Faith is going up and down, the Syrian conflict is not yet truly over, and Russia have been there for a while, watching carefully and ready to take action in a second, but they also cannot make any more mistake (IL20). Waiting is boring of course, but in hunting game, it pays off. Thanks.
One of the most outstanding feature of the S300s is that their performance is excellent no matter if used or unused…
I dont know if people are losing faith …. I sense as has been stated so often that Russia is walking a very very fine line to balance all powers in the middle east….
We must not forget that the Kremlin – a rational actor …. is dealing with – an irrational actor Washington …. Thus international relations theory is ….. being discredited …
So far a super hot war has not broken out between these two huge opponents … and the probable end of life on earth….
Fickle minds at play. S300 are useless? Wake up and please pay attention. The Apartheid Air Force currently occupying Palistine are cowards, they do not fly over Syria and since the ll70 incident they do not fly over the eastern Med. They hide over third party countries or behind civilian aircraft and fire from there, like a bully hiding behind his sistamomma.
Should Syria engage the Aparteid target over another country, well, then they’d be no better than Apartheid squatting asslickers. Apartheid cancer is curable btw, but the patient will have to die.
“political restrictions”
Its enough for me… (…all the rest is just more blah-blah-blah, and you know it very well… ;) )
Anyway, many thanks for all the info that I can find here..!
Kind regards
Ienot
I think it is important when armchairing for the Kremlin, that you have no flesh and blood in the game.
We all like to play Generalissimo. If we get it wrong, no problem.
Russia has lost 50+ highly qualified pilots and special forces. Probably more.
They lost 249 civilians in a bombed airliner.
They lost 15 very highly trained technicians and a very expensive Electronics Spy Plane.
They lost several jets off the aircraft carrier.
They have lost medical and humanitarian personnel.
They lost at least one general and several colonels.
They lost helos and other planes shot down.
This gives them the right to do whatever they choose to do.
Do you know who understands this better than anyone here or there or anywhere?
President Assad.
The General Staff of Russian military knows what they are doing.
Putin has not determined what the military can do. Especially, after the IL-20 shootdown, it was very clear that Shoigu was making policy regarding S-300 and S-400 defenses.
Putin ran the Chechen War by turning it over to the Generals and Kadyrov’s father.
The end game will be when the missile defenses are arranged and reinforced to close the Syria air space completely. That is a geopolitical sledge hammer that Putin is holding for the right moment. He knows that game better than anyone.
There are many tactics and strategies the Russians employ. They have many fronts they engage the Hegemon. Syria is but one. Syria has a plethora of players. Russia is atop them all. They know what they are doing.
They lost a whole lot more not due to https://www.rt.com/news/438728-putin-israel-syria-plane/
Putin on Israel’s role in Il-20 downing: ‘Looks accidental, like chain of tragic circumstances’
If the game is called sleeping with the enemy then he knows it better than anyone and “they” do know (100%) what they are doing..
L445
“I think it is important when armchairing for the Kremlin”
I think you give them too much credit. Spamming for zionazia is probably much closer to the mark. ;-D
at the risk of repeating myself:
Today we read that the Iranians have “taken control of several enemy drones”. Fine. But IDF still flies unimpeded over Syrian territory.
this is a month old but still valid
The Syrian air defense system was activated and the majority of the rockets had been intercepted and shot down.”
From reading this report I gain the impression that the Syrian/Russian air defense system in inadequate at this time. None of the IDF aircraft were shot down and whatever warning was received came to late for a full defense.
Given the local geography and the military weakness of Lebanon these intrusions will continue until two or three gaps in the early warning system are closed.
a) An S300 System must be installed at the coast on Lebanon to provide early warning of IDF aircraft taking off an flying N to approach from behind the mountains.
b) as a stopgap one or two AWCAS type aircraft must be on permanent patrol over Syria at the border to Lebanon ‘looking down’ onto the sea.
c) The S440 at Khmeiminm must be fully integrated into the Syrian early warning system.
d) whatever RADAR or other electronic assets Israel maintains on the Golan Highs has to be destroyed in one massive attack. After all the Syrian Armed Forced attacking their ‘own territory’
A retaliatory attack on on or two IDF airbases if successful will be interpreted by the guarantor nation as an ‘unprovoked attack’ against a peaceful nation and be seen as a casus belly.
It could be that the Syrians/Russians a still studying the EW capabilities of the IDF aircraft. As I have suggested at a different occasion the downing of an IDF F15 or F16 or one of the American ‘wunderwaffen’ F22 or F35 the latter regardless of the markings would once and for a long time cement who’s gear is superior.
It seems that both sides Russian and Israelis a avoiding this final showdown. If IDF aircraft can operate with impunity over Syria that means their EW capabilities are superior those of the Russians. If the other way around the “good relations” between Russia and Israel come to an end. However. Not revealing the full capabilities of the Russian system will be an asset in a future war against America.
Ceterum autem censeo Israel esse delendam.
Israel and Russia are allies. They just signed an almost $1billion deal to sell AWACS to India. (1) Why would Russia give up those sales to help Iran?
Iran and Russia are strategic competitors. Lower output of Iranian oil and gas results in higher world prices for those commodities when Russia sells them. Russia is willing to sell arms to Iran, cash and carry, which is a good business not a partnership.
___________
At this point the potential equipment transfer looks like:
— One S-300 command system
— Four S-300 class launchers (or Eight + One)
If someone has photo reconnaissance showing the launchers, please share. The most recent stories showed only four launchers. A full launcher regiment, eight plus a live spare, has also been reported but without a picture.
The logical placement for the system is in Northern Syria to resist very real threats from the Turkish air force. The geography is highly favorable to long range solutions in the general area between Idlib and Aleppo. S-200 and other systems could be placed further North and be integrated into the S-300’s defense network. A North to South strike mission would have to pass through multiple engagement zones.
If it is placed in Southern Syria in an attempt to protect Iranian offensive
forces it will be engaged by Israel. Again, the article points out the highly unfavorable geography and available method:
The S-300 system is dangerous and could destroy one or more F-16I strike aircraft before it is eliminated. However, it does not change the overall balance of power between Iranian and Israeli forces in the Syria/Lebanon theatre of operations.
_________
(1) https://www.theindianwire.com/world/india-finalize-israeli-deal-worth-800-million-another-two-awacs-system-98476/
Sure, it is a complicated mess. Seems the Russians just don’t understand the mentality of the West.
EVERY time the Russian don’t retaliate, the West thumps it’s chest and declares victory. They will not stop until they are stopped. Passivity emboldens their aggression.
Indulging the bully will just result in more bullying. Until he feels the pain, he has no reason to stop.
Sorry “Southern Front”… On a certain level, it might makes sense… but for me it just doesn’t wash…
Don’t get me wrong, that was a valiant effort, but for some reason, it just seems so…what’s the word/s I’m looking for… Western MSM.
Instead I offer this… HEGELIAN Dialect on a Planetary Scale.
The anti-Human psychopathic Uber EL-ites just LOVE their wars and mass killing of Humans.
Terror, death, destruction, misery and mayhem are ALL hallmarks of the parasites running this world at war.
Everywhere I look…psychos in BDU’s slaughtering innocent Humans. The ME, Europa, NorAm and South America, and Asia as well.
“Is-ra-hell” being one of the more psychotic and blood thirsty.
“There has been considerable speculation in recent months concerning reasons why the S-300 air defense systems supplied to the Syrian Arab Army by the Russian Federation have yet to fire a shot in anger at Israeli aircraft encroaching on its airspace and launching ordnance against a variety of targets on Syria’s territory. This video attempts to explore a reasonably complete range of explanations.”
But misses the obvious reason:
Syria to begin using S-300 defense system in March: report
https://mobile.almasdarnews.com/article/syria-to-begin-using-s-300-defense-system-in-march-report/
“The Syrian military will begin using the Russian-made S-300 air defense system in March, the Russia-based Kommersant publication reported on Monday.
According to Kommersant, the Syrian military is completing their training exercises with the S-300 and are not ready to use them in combat.
A member of the Russian Federation Council’s defence and security committee, Franz Klintsevich, said the Syrian crews are currently undergoing training, adding that “the Israeli warplanes are now striking Syria because they are still outside the Syrian air defense range, but after the deployment of the S-300, no one will be able to escape them”.
Kommersant said that it would be possible for one air defense battalion in Damascus to use the S-300, which is important for the Syrian military because the Israeli Air Force often targets the capital and its surroundings.”
Is it March already?
An irony here, or example of one hand not knowing what the other hand is doing, is that Southfront has already answered their question a month ago:
Russian-Supplied S-300 System Becoming Operational In Syria (Satellite Image)
https://southfront.org/russian-supplied-s-300-system-becoming-operational-in-syria-satellite-image/
This article mostly was about israeli propaganda and their bs, but in the article they did mention the March time frame for when the Syrians would have the system ready. So Southfront forgetting to mention this is rather odd, to be generous.
There are actually two main reasons why Syrian S-300s have not been used which Southfront forgot to mention.
The above fact the system wont be ready till March is the first. Using a weapon system before everything is ready about training and integration into the existing establishment is basically throwing the advantages that weapon may impart into the trash. History is full of examples where military units were rushed into service before they were ready only to get neutralised due to that lack of readiness.
The Syrians are not stupid.
The second reason to limit S-300 use, once the units are fully integrated and trained, is to avoid giving away the data that can be used to side step the weapon by the opposing side, for no account provocations. Part of the reason for these constant israeli provocations is to find out what they can about Syrian AD. The less a system is used, the less that israelis can gather intelligence on it. It makes no sense to give them that data to stop minor provocations when the israelis will then incorporate the data in conducting a full scale attack later down the line. Better to sit out the provocations and instead hit the sods hard when they seriously attack.
“Fortunately Israel’s leaders value Russia’s good will”
LOL.
“which is evidenced by Netanyahu’s nine meetings with Vladimir Putin in the space of 3 years and so far have been unwilling to risk even their brand-new F-35s against the S-300s.”
Since the S-300 is not on line yet, that is nonsense. And the israelis have used their f-35s attacking Syria and Southfront probably have written about this.
One gets the impression the writers, or writer, was attempting to ram through some specific views and did so regardless of contrary facts. Southfront did provide some useful content in this article, on some of the israeli tactics, for example, so it wasn’t a total wash.
Excellent analysis. I’m left wondering why Russia does not supply Lebanon with some weaponry. I wish the author had touched upon that subject.