by Aram Mirzaei for the Saker blog
The much expected Idlib offensive has been further delayed as tensions are rising among the major players of the Syrian war. The western mainstream media is as usual focusing heavily on the chemical weapons and refugee issues with fraudulent lies and manipulation of facts. The Idlib offensive will first and foremost not target Idlib city, but rather the surrounding countryside, secondly just as the Aleppo offensive did not create a refugee crisis, neither will the Idlib offensive as Russia and Syria have made sure to set up exit corridors for civilians to enter territory under Syrian government control. Of course this is how Washington and its vassals set the stage for another illegal act of aggression towards Syria. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov disputed the Western mainstream media narrative. He went on to say that “the fact that they are just people who have settled in Idlib, like in a fortress, and want a truce – it’s not true. From there they actively carry out military operations, using the support they somehow receive from abroad.”
All this was expected and predictable, but what will happen to the Turkey-Russia-Iran cooperation on the Syrian peace process?
As the Syrian government troops have been building up their forces across the Hama-Idlib-Latakia axis, Turkey has been building up its forces on the opposite side. Dozens of convoys have entered northern Syria these past weeks, including special operation forces and heavy armour. This is a major violation of the Astana agreement which only allows for a limited number of Turkish “observation points” in the Idlib province. Ankara claims that it is bringing more troops into Syria to intimidate jihadists into either joining their proxy forces or face battle.
Ankara has for weeks tried to delay the offensive with offers to help disarm and clear the region from mutually recognized terrorist forces such as Haya’t Tahrir Al-Sham. This was most likely the main topic of discussion during the Tehran summit last week. Moscow is however growing tired of waiting, and who can blame them? Over the past few months, the Russian air base in Latakia has come under attack on at least 55 occasions by armed Jihadist controlled drones from Idlib. How long will Moscow have to compromise the security of its personnel?
Ankara has been clear that it wants the offensive to be stopped. Erdogan even went as far as to having an article published on the New York times, calling on the international community to stop the offensive, adding that “the entire world stands to pay the price” otherwise. Erdogan also tried to get the EU to join in as he has warned that a “flood of refugees and jihadists will come to Europe” as a result of an attack. The reason for Ankara’s opposition to this offensive is because Ankara has serious fears for its national security as battered jihadists will certainly retreat into Turkish territory, wreaking havoc there instead, a concern shared by the French foreign minister Le Drian, who fears French terrorists will return home. On top of that, jihadists have in recent days posted videos on social media threatening Turkey and Erdogan, warning that militants in north-western Syria have dug a tunnel stretching into Turkey’s Hatay province. The militants in the video threatened to carry out attacks in Turkey if Ankara were to abandon them.
As a result of these developments, Moscow must consider whether Turkey is able to honor its commitment of ending the terrorist presence in and around Idlib. Ankara has been taking advantage of the recent surge in Western threats against Damascus in relation to the inevitable upcoming false flag operations being planned to take place any day now. This has caused Russia to partly shift its attention elsewhere and away from Ankara’s deceitful moves. The offensive is at this moment at risk of being further delayed or even scrapped as all three players (Russia, Iran and Turkey) have some major considerations to take into account while further talks surely are to be held before the launching of any large scale attack. However any delay or cancelation of the offensive is dangerous for Syria and her allies while Ankara rightly believes that any attack will result in a serious security threat for Turkey as jihadists will retreat into their territory as a result of losses on the battlefield.
Ankara’s boldness in this situation has effectively made it a kingmaker here, either it can end this war or create a whole new conflict. Erdogan is relying on his rapprochement with Tehran and Moscow, including the recent surge in commercial ties with the two, to help him get his will through. Still, he should not underestimate Moscow and Tehran’s closer ties to Damascus and their will to end this war. What is clear is that Damascus considers Turkey to be an occupier intent on annexing Idlib, something Damascus will never accept, with or without Moscow and Tehran’s support. The question however remains, will two years worth of diplomacy and political efforts survive this decisive moment of the Syrian war?
Whack-a-mole. Idlib quiet, the French & Israeli dogs of NATZO sneak attacks:
Russian MOD points to French Frigate which fired missile
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-09-17/massive-sustained-attack-syria-russian-s-300-defenses-possibly-active-huge
Russian Military Plane with 14 personnel on-board goes missing the same time Israel was launching strikes in Syria Syrian air defenses were firing en-mass and French Frigate reportedly launched a missile at the same time
So far, I’m keeping an eye on RT and TASS. A small blog by a guy named Tyler who’s watching CNN isn’t going to give me any real information before those two. I am most interested in what the Russian MOD is going to say next, and RT or TASS will have that sort of good info first. I don’t really care what CNN says because they’d only say what the Pentagon or CIA tells them and I wouldn’t believe either one if they told me the sun is going to set in the west this evening. The Pentagon, the CIA and CNN are all known liars and have no credibility. And we all know what the value of an ‘anonymouse US official’ is worth. The good info on this situation will come from the Russian MOD.
**Breaking News**
https://www.rt.com/news/438686-syria-russia-s200-il20/
Russian Il-20 downed by Syrian missile after attacking Israel’s F-16s used it as cover – Russian MoD. Russia says holds the right to respond. Israel only gave 1 minute notice…..Israel held to blame for the downing of the Russian plane – French denying they set off the air defences too by firing from the Med. Hopefully Russia will hold French accountable too:
https://www.rt.com/news/438687-israel-russia-response-il20/
There was no need for that Russian plane to go down – Israel/France set off the Syrian air defences whilst the Russian plane was not in the safe zone. Israel’s recklessness has cost 15 lives according to live news on RT.
It will be interesting to see how the Israelis respond. As the Russians have stated this is a breach of the understanding reached between Israel and Russia regarding mutual military activities.
At the very least I expect the Russians to set new rules for the Israelis- no more bombing in Syria.
Russia to Israel: ‘You are to blame for downing of Il-20 and death of crew’. Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu spoke to his Israeli counterpart Avigdor Lieberman on the phone:
https://www.rt.com/news/438690-russia-israel-il20-blame/
The straw that broke the camel’s back for Russia. Israel will rue the day. This was a massive game changer in Syria.
RIP and condolences to the families of all the radar crewmen whose lives were so callously lost.
But Israel chose to do this, knowing the likely outcome, or to create this outcome.
Why? What does it hope to gain from it?
On the same day, Israel celebrates the 30 year anniversary of the launch of its spy satellite. … by showing high resolution images of Syria’s presidential palace. Subtle or what?
http://www.timesofisrael.com/30-years-later-israel-declassifies-footage-of-its-first-satellite-launch/
Maybe someone needs to publish high resolution images of the residences of Netanyahu, Lieberman, the head of the IDF, and the head of the IAF?
Provoke, hot conflict between NATO and Russia. I believe that Russia will not take the bait, but warns Israel. I’d love to hear what Shoygu said to Lieberman (no doubt in Russian, as Lieberman is likely a dual citizen).
Israel responds … by blaming Assad, and Hezbollah, and Iran … and Israel is the poor victim. SIckening. Murderous bastards.
https://z5h64q92x9.net/proxy_u/ru-en.en/https/colonelcassad.livejournal.com/4464659.html
Nazis or zionazis, France is ever the collaborationist power.
Interesting how neopharisees get on well with nazis, by the way. Ukraine is a case in point.
Russia’s military aircraft disappears over Mediterranean Sea
MOSCOW, September 18. /TASS/. Russia’s Il-20 military aircraft with 14 servicemen on board disappeared over the Mediterranean Sea, an official with Russia’s Defense Ministry told reporters on Tuesday.
The plane went off the radar while F-16 fighters of the Israeli Air Force attacked targets in the Syrian province of Latakia, the fate of the Russian military is unknown, the official said.
“On September 17, at about 11:00 pm Moscow time, the connection with the crew of the Russian Il-20 aircraft was lost over the Mediterranean Sea when the plane was returning to the airbase of Khmeimim, 35 kilometers from the coast of Syria,” the official said.
The ministry specified that “the mark of Il-20 went off the radars disappeared during the attack of four Israeli F-16 aircraft on Syrian targets in the province of Latakia.”
“At the same time, the Russian radars fixed missile launches from the French frigate Auvergne, which was in that area,” the Defense Ministry said.
More:
http://tass.com/defense/1022002
https://southfront.org/category/all-articles/world/middle-east/syria/
Air strikes on Latakia were carried out by Israeli planes – Al-Jazeera
MOSCOW, September 18. /TASS/. The air strikes that targeted the Syrian city of Latakia were carried out by Israeli planes from the Lebanese territory, the Al Jazeera TV channel reported on Tuesday referring to sources in the Syrian army.
More:
http://tass.com/world/1022006
https://southfront.org/airstrikes-on-government-facilities-reported-in-latakia-homs-provinces-russia-allegedly-employs-own-air-defenses/
One can see what the meeting between Putin and Trump was all about; US gets east of Euphrates, Turkey takes Idlib and the Jews keep Golan. Russia maintains a naval base in Syria and then they will all live happily ever after.
But I prefer to wait until the dust settles.
As a typical experience-poor American, even with the help of this blog, I’m still in the dark with this war in Syria. What is possibly going on there?
– Russia is the effective political/military leader/decision-maker of the Syria-Iran-Russia Axis
– Russia is walking a tightrope to “win” in Syria, yet deter WWIII by appeasing the US
– US/Allies are provoking Russia to invite a “hot war” by launching various attacks against them
– US/Allies are proving that they “make their own history”, and can create any narrative they choose
Given the above, if the US desires a Russian provocation for the sake of a hot war, then they surely will manufacture one – when have they not? There are too many players in this “game” for me to have any sense of what is real. Does the US use the perpetual threat of a hot war as a too real Damocles sword over Russian heads, or is this just a backdrop of brinkmanship to a more mundane reality of roller-coaster internal/external politicking?
Other commenters have pointed-out the difficult Turks, and it goes without saying that they are hungry for conquest here — ripe-pickings that the US has handed them either directly or indirectly. Surely, they pose the most potentially provocative enemy for Russia (of all their existential enemies in Syria!).
The reason for Ankara’s opposition to this offensive is because Ankara has serious fears for its national security as battered jihadists will certainly retreat into Turkish territory, wreaking havoc there instead, a concern shared by the French foreign minister Le Drian, who fears French terrorists will return home. On top of that, jihadists have in recent days posted videos on social media threatening Turkey and Erdogan, warning that militants in north-western Syria have dug a tunnel stretching into Turkey’s Hatay province. The militants in the video threatened to carry out attacks in Turkey if Ankara were to abandon them.
Turkey apparently has never heard of reaping what you sow.
Turkey supports and arms terrorists against other nations like Syria, then whines like a b*tch when it fears that its terrorist will retreat into Turkey itself.
You should have thought of this, when you supported these terrorists, Turkey.
Karma is a helluva b*tch.
Turkey will learn this rule the hard way, as will the other terrorist nations like America, Britain, Saudi Arabia, Israel, Qatar, etc.
Russian MoD Blames Israel for Attack Which Led to Downing of Il-20 by Syria
https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/201809181068121621-france-russia-plane-syria/
“A Russian military aircraft with 14 people on board disappeared from radar screens over Syria at the same time that Israeli and French forces were mounting aerial attacks on targets in Syria, the Russian Defense Ministry has stated.
Israel had notified Russia about its operation in Syria via hotline a minute before the strike, which did not allow enough time for the Il-20 aircraft to make it to the safe zone, the Russian Defense Ministry stated.
Israel’s Embassy in Moscow has refused to comment on Russian Military’s statement on Il-20 crash.”
Russian Il-20 downed by Syrian missile after attacking Israel’s F-16s used it as cover – Russian MoD
https://www.rt.com/news/438686-syria-russia-s200-il20/
“The Russian military say the Israeli raid on Syria triggered a chain of events, which led to the shooting down of a Russian Il-20 plane by a Syrian S-200 surface-to-air missile. Moscow reserves the right to respond accordingly.
On Monday evening four Israeli F-16 fighter jets attacked targets in Syria’s Latakia after approaching from the Mediterranean, a statement by the Russian defense ministry said on Tuesday. The Israeli warplanes came at a small altitude and “created a dangerous situation for other aircraft and vessels in the region”, it said.
The military said the French Navy’s frigate “Auvergne” as well as a Russian Il-20 plane were in the area of the Israeli operation.
“The Israeli pilots used the Russian plane as cover and set it up to be targeted by the Syrian air defense forces. As a consequence, the Il-20, which has radar cross-section much larger than the F-16, was shot down by an S-200 system missile,” the statement said.
The Russian ministry stressed that the Israelis must have known that the Russian plane was present in the area, which didn’t stop them from “the provocation”. Israel also failed to warn Russia about the planned operation in advance. The warning came a minute before the attack started, which “did not leave time to move the Russian plane to a safe area,” the statement said.”
https://img.rt.com/files/2018.09/original/5ba0b5adfc7e9310208b45da.jpg
“Map of the incident on September 17 in Syria provided by the Russian defense ministry.”
Russia ‘reserves right to response’ after saying Israel’s actions led to downing of Il-20 by Syria
https://www.rt.com/news/438687-israel-russia-response-il20/
“We consider these provocative actions by Israel as hostile. Fifteen Russian military service members have died because of the irresponsible actions of the Israeli military. This is absolutely contrary to the spirit of the Russian-Israeli partnership,” the statement stressed. “We reserve the right for an adequate response.”
The statement updates the death toll in the incident. Earlier the Russian military said there were 14 crew members onboard the missing Il-20. A search and rescue operation off the Syrian coast is underway.”
In a way it is what you get for letting Israel have its way in Syria for the past years.
The “Chutzpah” to attack Latakia, right close to the Russian Main Base, and even setup a Russian Il-20 to be shotdown by Syrian AA… where does that come from?
well the world is watching,or will the ones who control the major geopolitical narrative ,turn into an ,”NOTHING TO SEE HERE BURGER”…
5 hours of procrastination talks Erdo and Putin –
which does not seem to be teported here- to set up a 15 k buffer zone gave the evil ones time and opportunity to set this up…..Shoigu said there would not be more military action against Idlib while this was happening….I wonder if he was happy about that. Reports suggest Assad going along with the buffer zone. West has used this opportunity to show to show indecision or weakness of Putin with Erdo allowing Erdo a nato partner to get his way for the sake of Turkish- Russian larger perspective relations perhaps? There here hints yesterday as Israel clearly stated their red lines were sharply defined…so….people think Idlib has the potential to calm down but the situation is taken advantage of by countries pretending to have friendly relations eg Macron- Putin. Yuk.
I do not think Russian populace is gonna be too happy with all this…could be part of the plan to lower the ratings of the Russian President. It is all a mess except the announcement of 5000 SDF type forces to leave al tanf area due to a reconciliation agreement reached which deserves congratulations.
More damage to Syrian facilities and more Syrians killed too. This needs finishing once and for all big time.
Very “interesting” listening to the psychotic rabid conservative jewish russian “journalist” from somewhere in deepest Russia.. being interviewed by Nikki Aaron on rt just now…..God preserve us from such peoples.
Oh yeah….such a coincidence after Russian MOD made their presentation about Buk velongi g to Ukraine re MH17 too….it all ties up…. and France IDF attacking Lattakia too illegally betchya UN is keeping quiet about that…note location Russian plane in line of sight Syrian s-200 and French frigate too to prevent that being maybe…….could French provocative action also be inviting a response from Syria to enable Nato forces to then go in full attack mode…..I think so….so if attacked then IDF planes were on hand to attack Damascus and Bashir directly. They have clearly been scheming together.
Let alone even more recent evidence of Israel supplying militants-terrorists with armaments.
Israeli plane apparently passed just in front of the plane, SAA got a lock, Israeli doglegged left, missile lost lock and chose the biggest target…..our plane. Israel violated protocol, called one minute before the attack, not enough time for our bird to get out of the way. The french frigate was window dressing.
It was a setup.
… and probably all very much AI assisted in these applying these type of conflict scenarios.
Absolutely a planned operation by the Western lunatics. Russian’s response will be interesting.
This whole thing is an immense provocation, pure and simple. VVP is not going to let them make him react in a way that will give them any excuse whatsoever to pull a ‘dog pile on the rabbit’ moment. He will chose the time of his retaliation to do the maximum damage with minimum risk to Motherland. Patience is a virtue, and VVP knows this very well.
Auslander
Author
Sevastopol, The Third Defense. https://www.amazon.com/dp/B079KRPLS4 Book 1, A Premonition, The Move South. Set against a backdrop of real events and real places, the reader is left to filter fact from fiction.
Never The Last One https://www.amazon.com/dp/B00ZGCY8KK A deep look in to Russia, her culture and her Armed Forces, in essence a look at the emergence of Russian Federation.
And if Syria had had s-400 that everyone else including a Nato member seems to have oh so easily…..might have shot down the IDF and targeted the French frigate too..?..cos it seems that SAA have now decided to defend themselves well outside their land borders to bring down IDF planes over the sea not just shoot down their missiles when over Syria..that is very interesting to me…although I do not see any reports of land defences being used from Latakia nor any defensive action being taken by Russian navy in the area-why-…….eirher Syrian or Russian considering Russia had put on notice that launch sources after previous attacks would be dealt with….I wonder of MoD are entirely happy with the results of Erdo buffer zone if these are the kinds of consequences they are being dealt with from cheating partners.
Maybe pick one of these from this new list as a demonstration!
/putins-stunning-revelations-about-new-russian-weapons-systems/
…”It Is Official And It Is Over.”…
well this has been the the seven year set up,
to genocide syrians, so nutyanhoo,mericanneocons,nato,gcc can have their spoils,…nothing to see here…assad is bad putin is evil nothing else matters.The narrative concocted by the reality setters has been swallowed up gratefully by the world citizenry.As one of them said,we make realities on the ground and as you correspondents analysis this we are making new realities…or something to the effect…
the narrative is out,”animal assad shot down russian plane indiscriminately”,”isreal was defending itself against terrorist iran and terrorist hisbullah discriminately and it feels the sorrow of russians caught in the line of fire”…cheers yom kippur
Another humiliating blow to Russian Arm Forces.
Shouldn’t IL-20 see unfolding scenario before went down?
We will never know the true as lies now flows from all sides, some to cover shame, the other – a crime.
My guess is that Israelis have very powerful Air Force, and if they want the whole Russian detachment could be wiped off instantly.
The Russian force in Syria is very small, but if Israel ‘wiped’ it off Israel would be facing the full force of the Russian Federation in open war. Presumably this is something they are sensible enough to avoid.
Did the metallic mass of the French vessel act as part of a coordinated shield.? It seems Russia needs a dipolar radar system. A system on land and a system offshore afloat…or at least one other comma plane in the sky covering vulnerable take off and approach. Israel exploited opportunity because there was an opportunity. That opportunity has been used and will now be closed.
Bogdasarov: A Russian response to a new US attack on Syria should include sinking the warships. Aug 30, 2018.
Destroy not just the missiles, but also the ships that launch them.
“Russia must respond to US strikes against Syria by destroying not only missiles, but also the ships that launch them. This was stated by political scientist Semyon Bagdasarov.
According to the expert, the Americans want to organize a provocation with chemical weapons in Syria in order to justify a missile attack on government forces, since this is the only way to stop the Syrian army, which has almost freed the country from US-funded militants. The connection between the impending provocation and Washington can easily be traced from the concentration of serious military forces (destroyers, bombers and missiles) in the immediate vicinity of Syria.”
“Bagdasarov is convinced that it is time for Russia to move from indignation and exhibiting fragments of American made missiles to real action. The political scientist recalled that the key goal of the US sanctions is the destruction of the Russian Federation as a state, and Moscow should call things by their own names.”
“Note that on Tuesday the Russian Defense Ministry announced the deployment in the Mediterranean Sea of the most powerful group of Russian ships in the time of the Syrian crisis, comprised of 10 ships and two submarines. It is expected that these vessels will support the government forces of the SAR when they liberate the province of Idlib, the last stronghold of militants in Syria.” FRN.
1 – The answer of the Hegemon is loud and clear. Russia cannot support the government forces, and they cannot liberate the province of Idlib.
2 – Forget about the territories East of Euphrates. The oil and the area, it is now a NATO Asset.
The Russian fleet has been shown to be impotent by not defending Latakia.
This article misconceive and represents Ankara. Like they did in Cyprus operation by telling Americans they will leave in 2 weeks, they will never leave Idlib and other occupied territories and their fate will be like Hatay which also used to be Syrian territory and taken with such cunning policies
Playing consummate 3D chess in the Land of Hammers goes largely unappreciated. It looks more eccentric than brilliant. The occasional hammer might express a passing admiration. But dumb moves and exquisite moves are squashed much the same. The mathematicians tell us we live in an 11D universe. But if you want to cross the road safely, four will do. We live in a coarse world. Is Putin’s strategic vision too clever by half for the world it seeks to navigate? Or is he winning one bloody nose at a time?
I have questions based upon these known facts.
The SAA missiles batteries are manned 24/7 with regular watches attending to the various radar signatures seen on their scopes. The operators see normal flight patterns in the area including high-speed jets and slower turboprop aircraft. The Syrians and Russians know Israel performs regularly attacks from the air either from Lebanon airspace or by approach from the Mediterranean Sea and target Damascus and outlying areas around Latakia .
It seems to me it is critical for the Russian IL-20 transponder to always be switched “ON” so the SAA can see the IDENT appear on the radar display. The speed of the slower moving propeller plane is clearly differentiated and followed as well.
The missile battery radar operator knew the IL-20 was there because he saw it on his scope. A turboprop aircraft flies much slower than an F-16 so he must have seen the Israeli warplanes approaching at high speed from over the Mediterranean Sea. The F-16’s had to have been on an intercept course with the IL-20 in order to “hide” its radar signature within the larger plane’s envelope.
1. Why did the SAA battery operator launch missile(s) at the F-16’s fully aware of how the missile tracks its target and risk hitting the Russian IL-20?
2. The technique used by the Israeli Air Force was certainly clever but not innovative as it has been used many times in combat aviation history. How was this scenario not planned for in advance to avoid this tragic outcome?
3. Will Russia replace the Syrian missile batteries with their own personnel instead of relying on Syrian operators who appear to be undisciplined and even reckless under fire?
The IL20 is slow as you had said and descending from altitude about to make landing which make them clear from immediate envelope of the missile path at the time they are launched targeting the f16 flying low intentionally. The f16 simply move closer and behind the IL20 AFTER the missile have been launched. Make sense to you ? Yes there’s abort remote signal to disarm and destroy the missile mid flight but by the time they realized it’s already too late.
No, it does not make sense to me as you described it.
You essentially repeated the same response given by the Russian Military. It does not make sense to me that a well-trained missile battery operator who knows the capability of the missile systems under his command including flight characteristics and radar tracking would take the “Fire and Forget” approach to try and destroy the F-16’s. We have a Russian Turboprop aircraft on final approach for landing inside an active air combat battle space. It is too great a gamble, in my opinion,
In fact, the more I think about this, the more I’m inclined to believe the Israeli’s shot the IL-20 down with air-to-air missiles. They did it to blame the SAA since they were actively launching S-200’s prior to the IL-20 tragedy.
The capability of the IL-20 provides for automatic transmission of all ELINT data to ground stations in real-time. The IL-20 detected missiles launched from the F-16’s towards it before the transmission went dead. The Russian military knows this and is covering it up (grudgingly I’m sure) to serve President Putin’s “tragic accident” statement. This is an unconscionable sacrifice of a highly skilled Russian aircrew who flew this sophisticated electronic surveillance aircraft.
Urgent
Down Il-20 Was on Recon Mission Over Idlib De-Escalation Zone – Russian MoD
https://sputniknews.com/world/201809181068135339-il-20-idlib-de-escalation-zone-reconnaissance-mission/
Israel Unlikely to Fly Freely Over Syria After Il-20 Incident – Ex-Official Yakov Kedmi
https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/201809181068132500-israel-syria-il-20-incident-airspace/
Media noise. Kedmi is just a political commentator. No need to fly over Syria in order to aggress it.
A rather good analysis of Turkey’s options in Syria:
https://www.cgpolicy.org/articles/turkey-in-syria-between-a-rock-and-a-hard-place/