Some twenty years ago a local girl called Kate Bushell was killed, I have mentioned her here before, and Genette Tate, her killer was never caught, at the time plod spent a lot of time suspecting her father, now the local news says on the 20th anniversary they are going to spend a million quid re-opening the cold case, and by the way, they have a new clue.
The fact is that back then, it was a local event, eg within ten miles of me, and yet, I actually know very little about it, I do not know exactly where she was killed, it wasn’t really reported, I do not know exactly where she lived, it wasn’t really reported, and I do not know her exact route from where she lived to where she was killed, it wsn’t really reported… all I really knew was she had been knifed.
For all I know, I could have passed the exact route that she took from her home to where she died, and I could have done so within a few minutes of the incident, so even if I didn’t see it happen, I might have seen something, even if as is most likely it was something that could exclude something, yeah, there was a green ford in front of me and no he didn’t stop and drop anyone off or pick them up…
I don’t know how to run a murder investigation, it’s not my field of expertise, but I do know it is going to be all about data, and forensics of course, but we’ll come to that bit later, but data mainly, even if it the kind of data that probably excludes a green ford, just as the data from whoever was behind me probably excludes data about a yob on a murdercycle, but the fact is I have never known if I was within a few miles of the incident or not, along with 100,00 other people in town, or if I was 40 miles away in another town at that day and time… plod made lots of appeals over the following weeks for witnesses to come forwards, but the fact is I never got enough information to even know if I was one, besides, it seemed like plod had spent the first few weeks concentrating on pinning it on the dad, seems the kid went out walking a neighbours dog and when she was late dad went out looking for her and found her body, so naturally plod put him in the frame.
I don’t even recall if there was any sexual motive or assault, or if it was just some random nut job who saw jesus in a cloud and decided to kill the blond kid walking past with a dog.
I dunno what happend to the dog, or even what sort of dog it was.
The media of course was only interested in showing a picture of a cute blond kid who was 12 years old and would never make 13 and how amazingly awful it all was, hang on while we recap the story and show her picture again.
So fast forwards to today, and I suspect that 990,000 of the 1,000,000 that plod are ging to spend on this cold case isn’t real money, it’s money they would be spending anyway on wages and vehicles and offices and shit.
If my ability to know whether I might have been a material witness of some kind 20 years ago was pissed away 20 years ago, good luck pissing in that particular well 20 years later, 20 years, lemmesee, that’s oct/nov 1997, lemmesee, umm, umm, ummm, umm, I think I was working for the post office then, or was I driving a wagon by then, I’m not sure.
But wait, remember I said about the new clue, and no, it’s not one of the local retired and couldn’t solve it first time around but hired back again as a consultant stood in a photo in the local rag holding a kitchen knife, that may or may not resemble the knife that was used to kill the kid, not that it was ever found, oh no.. this is a much better new clue.
Apparently they have discovered “orange fibres” on her body and on a fence near the scene that don’t match anything the kid was wearing… fuck it man, 20 years later and we only now hear about it, hell, could have been orange fibres from a hi vis vest worn by someone attending the scene in an official capacity at the time.
Could have been orange fibres from the pelt of the dog she was walking afghan hound or something, we aren’t told the breed, it wasn’t relevant…. yes, it fucking WAS… trust me, I’m more likely to remember “some bloke walking a dobermann” and no, it could have been a chick walking the dog, but it was a dobey and definitely not a lab or collie or anything else, but no, nobody needs to know what the dog was, hell, maybe the dog was a suspect like the dad at the time, after all, the dog was at the scene….
So now realistically we are at a place where barring some new testimony from some guy who emigrated that afternoon and only returned last week and never heard about it back then but walked right past her that day, the only hope is DNA, and that is only a hope if there is any, which there won’t be if “all” that happened is some nut job stabbed her at random…. barring coincidences like his iranian passport falling out at the scene 9/11 style…
Which brings us back to forensics, and as the father of forensics said, the essence of forensics is there is always evidence, even the absence of evidence is itself evidence of a sort, but whether the forensic evidence is absent or present, your scenarios must adequately explain ALL of it, or your explanation is shit.
It is entirely possible, especially if it was some random nut job who saw signs in the clouds, that the forensic evidence is minimal, there may literally be nothing but a body with knife wounds, and once the killer walks away with the knife, you’re left with a body with knife wounds and nothing else.
It doesn’t take 1 million quid to trawl through a database and find every nutjob who was walking loose in the region at that time, adam smith, no, he was in mental hospital, jim jones, no, he was in prison, steve meyer, no, he was in rehab, fred bloggs, hmm, he wasn’t in prison, or rehab, or the nuthouse, and he did see a doctor not three miles away the day before trying to get some scrips for the voices in his head.
Course, then you have to prove it “beyond a reasonable doubt” in court, something you might have done 20 years ago, but have sweet fuck all chance of now (even if the perp is still alive and hasn’t OD’d in the past 20..)
So what the fuck is it all about, I ask myself.
You know, aside from the family who obviously want answers, but really wanted them 20 years ago, what is the fucking point, and why go large about spending a million quid? Easy to get that, cut back on all the bullshit FRA cases and arresting people for hate speech for wearing a poppy in remembrance and that shit.
And then my door went while I was on the crapper, so I ignored it, and lo and behold something comes through the letterbox, oh yes, of course, local council elections again, and no doubt someone wants to be seen as being strong on crime and civil justice and all that, so a three month campaign of cold cases for plod and saving trees and park benches and creating 14 million new jobs in town.
These worthless cunts (politicians / lawyers / plod) have presided over the destruction of the family and the demonisation of men for so long it has finally come home to roost in parliament, want that white man out of a job, want his job, want a job, just accuse him of something sexual, so hopefully it will soon be percolating down to local politician levels, and maybe when enough of them are running scared someone will do a plea deal, and remember than actually, 20 years ago, the police chiefs / local councillors / local judge’s batshit crazy son / daughter / cousin disappeared all of a sudden like, you know, it’s not like the electric chair is gonna bring some voters dead kid back to life, so why not just send them off to cousin jacks place in portugal for 20 years, why ruin my own career.
I had an uncle, long dead now, he became a local councillor, and then suddenly managed to get both planning permission for a large filling station, and no compliance inspections (so runoff spills and leaks went direct to the local stream, saved thousands…) and next thing you know he is raking it in, corruption and shit ain’t a top down thing that starts with the clintons and works its way down, it’s everywhere and always have been, you either see it or you’re blind to it, and if you see it, you either go along for the ride or don’t make too many waves with your non participation.
And that’s the real reason crimes like the killing of Kate Bushell don’t get solved, if it really is a random nutter thing it’s hard enough anyway, but when you put solid detective work last, behind corruption and career building and being seen on telly and more funding for your department and more overtime for you, well, there is fuck all chance.
What forensics can do is highly over estimated in the eye of the public, it’s the CSI effect, enhance image, enhance until solved!
People outright don’t believe you if tell them how high the false positive rate of DNA tests is, for example, that it’s not a sure thing.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CSI_effect
When something happens, ask the cops if you should secure the crime scene for the crime lab to arrive, and watch the laughter!
Comment by guest — November 7, 2017 @ 11:16 am
Comment by guest — November 7, 2017 @ 11:20 am
A lot of false reasoning with probability theory is also applied to DNA “evidence.” This is called prosecutor’s fallacy. People have been wrongly jailed because of that. Some famous cases of such wrongful convictions are those of Sally Clark and Lucia de Berk. The following article on wikipedia analyzes the wrong math:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prosecutor%27s_fallacy
Comment by Tim — November 9, 2017 @ 6:57 am
looks like it’s only a fallacy when it’s done to women.
Comment by patriarchal landmine — November 13, 2017 @ 2:53 pm