I want to look at some of the practical aspects of electric vehicles, while ignoring the electric vehicles themselves.
Here in the UK gasoline and diesel are bought at the pump by the litre, there are many “independent” retailers and some 88% of the price you pay at the pump is duty or tax of one form or another.
If we call it 37 kWh per gallon (imp) and £1.15 per litre then x 4.54 = £5.22 per gallon and £5.22 / 37 = £0.14 per kWh and as I have always said many times elsewhere when you compare disparate forms of energy they all cost you around about the same in unit price per kWh, and this is of course no accident… if diesel was £0.80 per gallon I could run my old lister start-o-matic and sell electricity back to the grid and make a profit.
A 50 kWh battery is becoming the new norm for electric cars.
Here in the UK we also have a 240 VAC @ 50 Hz mains supply.
It’s AC so it’s not quite as simple as DC, but for the purposes of this post we can call 1 ampere at 240 volts AC equivalent to 240 watts, so a little over 4 hours to get 1 kWh at a 1 ampere rate.
So 4 x 50 = 200 hours to fully charge a 50 kWh battery, except it isn’t, there are losses, so we will call it 80% efficient as a process, including thermal losses in all the electronics and electrical conductors, and losses in the chemical charging process, and 80% is a pretty favourable figure, so 250 hours to charge a 50 kWh battery at a 1 ampere rate.
So 25 hours to charge a 50 kWh battery at a 10 ampere rate.
Here in the UK we have the best domestic plug and socket design on the planet, but what few realise is that the sole purpose of the fuse in the fused plug is to protect the wire, nothing else.
In theory it is a 13 ampere plug, so in theory you can draw 13 x 240 = 3,120 watts, in practice you might want to consider that a temporary peak rating rather than a continuous rating, I tend to be a bit “properly engineered is overengineered” so I tend do go one size up in cable wiring and so on, and still be cautious about current draw… because I tend to base my calculations on voltage drop at full load so when I wired up the shed at the bottom of someone’s garden 35 metres of 4.5 mm2 cable was used inside MT ducting and that shit will carry 13 amperes all day and all night with minimal thermal generation and voltage drop.
Anyway, 25 hours to charge a 50 kWh battery at a 10 ampere rate.
That isn’t practical, it needs to come down to 8 hours, and we can’t shrink the battery, so all that remains is to treble the power draw, so now we are at 8 hours to charge a 50 kWh battery at 30 amperes @ 240 VAC @ 50 Hz
Now we come to the first practical issue, we cannot use a domestic plug and socket because of the 30 amperes, nor can we use the domestic downstairs socket wiring loop, we have to run a new cable from the main breaker and consumer unit, and it is going to have to be 10 mm2 and it is going to have to have its own circuit and breaker maybe 40 amp.
So now we are rewiring part of the ground floor of the house, and it has to be done right, so conduit as well, it will be going through walls so holes to be drilled, and it will need a new earth down where the socket goes and *ideally* a separate local CU/breaker box in the garage just above the new 30 amp industrial socket, which needs a switch too, you do not want it live all the time, so a nice 30 amp breaker switch too.
We are probably easily at £250 in materials here even if I DIY myself, and lets be honest, it’s not a very elegant system, because there is nothing in it to prevent the cooker and electric shower and everything else in the house being turned on, and tripping the main 40 amp breaker from the meter tails to the main CU.
Remember, 40 amps is enough to run everything in a standard house, simultaneously, now we are adding a 30 amp load…
So we can get a bit more sophisticated and put the 30 amp system on a timer, 10 pm to 6 am, bottom line is it can be made to work.
And we just, “accidental like” stumbled across the sole reason for Tesla to sell the power wall, it’s basically a trickle charge tank that fills gradually 24/7 and dumps into the car on demand at power rates that the domestic wiring can’t handle… it’s a good idea, but you add another 80% efficient system into the circuit so now you’re down to 64% overall efficiency in kWh extracted from the mains to kWh charge present in the EV battery.
Because we also just “accidental like” stumbled across the other problem with all this, we can make this system work, for ONE EV PER HOUSE with a 50 kWh battery.
To run TWO electric vehicles per house, we have an issue, because the basic supply and CU (consumer unit) isn’t rated for that sort of power, even if we put it on a timer to run overnight.
So while the supply to the house itself can take the power, out wiring job just got more complex, essentially we will need a complete separate supply and CU from the domestic circuit, and this bitch is going to be an 80 amp circuit from the meter tails to the garage / charge point.
Your DIY £250 parts bill just turned into £1,000, plus you’ll need a certified by the electric company sparky to wire the 25 mm2 tails from your new CU to the existing supply…. and you’ll be running either twin 10 mm2 circuits to independent CU/Switch/30a sockets in the garage, or a single 25 mm2 to the twin CU/switch/30a sockets.
If you have a single EV and draw 50 kWh per night @ £0.15 per kWh then you are drawing £7.50 a night, call it 6 days a week and you have 6 x 52 = 312 days, and 312 days at £7.50 = £2,340 per annum.
OK, you aren’t buying anything at the gas pumps at £1.15 per litre.
What you did do though was add 50 kWh of baseload to the electricity grid overnight, and this is just one house with one car.
5 million cars doing this is 5,000,000 x 50 = 250,000,000 kWh per night, or 250,000 mWh per night, basically you are adding to the grid baseload by 25,000 megawatts for 8 hours every night, that’s 25 gigawatts for 8 hours every night.
And this is ONLY 5 million electric cars.
Now, if you are wondering about actual UK grid numbers, wonder no more, and go here
http://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/index.php
So, as I type this at 1 pm, on a saturday, grid load is 31.4 gigawatts…
45 gigawatts is capacity, and daily peaks often run around the 40 gigawatt mark.
Baseload generating capacity comes from hydro, nuke, or coal/gas, that’s it, there is no solar at night and wind while useful isn’t baseload, unless you want to go back to the days of sailing ships and everyone is 3 days late going to work because their tesla was becalmed.
Currently we only have 8 gigawatts of nuke capacity, so even running all the nukes at max exclusively to charge electric vehicles we are still woefully short of the 25 gigawatts we need for JUST 5 million EVs
So basically that means the coal and gas fired plants are going to be redlined all night every night.. not good for longevity and planned maintenance.
Tree huggers will tell you that connected EV’s are just batteries that can feed back into the grid, and that is true.. but…
But….
But.. so far we haven’t gone anywhere near the level of tech required for that, so far we are only talking about “dumb” loads on the grid to charge our only 5 million EV’s, you may as well start over again if you are going to talk about feeding in to the the grid, because you need extra breakers and safety systems and grid certified pure sine wave inverters that lock sync to grid clock frequency, WHICH VARIES EVER SO SLIGHTLY FROM MINUTE TO MINUTE.
Shit just got *really* expensive, and it raises yet another problem, demand exceeded capacity so 50% of grid connected EV’s just drained their batteries to charge the other 50%, and all this extra shit is extra layers of 80% efficiency being added on, 64% drops to 51% etc.
Speaking as an engineer, efficiency doesn’t matter a fuck to the lone guy out in a field or on a boat, so what if your system is only 50% efficient, you don’t care, you are still getting power where otherwise you would not.
When it comes to the large scale though, the inverse is true, you live and die by fractions of a single percentage point in efficiency, going from 82.3% efficient to 82.2% efficient can ruin your whole fucking week, when you are talking large scale, it is literally hundeds of thousands of wasted dollars pouring through your hands every hour, and that shit adds up *real* fast.
Which means, amongst other things, from the grid perspective they have no choice but to treat inverted feeds from EV batteries the same as solar and wind, it’s not baseload.
We just, all “accidental like” tripped over the third big revelation, you cannot manage a grid like this unless you can manage the loads, and hence so called “smart” meters.
Like everything else in life it starts off “voluntary” and before you have many more grey hairs it’s fucking mandatory, like seat belts and crash helmets, for “the common good”… and it’s pretty fucking easy to enforce, electric is 16p per kWh with a smart meter or 32 p per kWh with an old fashioned dumb meter.
Now the grid can decide that none of the EV’s in Bristol get to start charging at 11 pm, it will be 12 pm instead, and the EV’s in Sheffield can go on grid feed mode from 10:30 pm to 11:30 pm while one of the grid turbines is down for peridoic maintenance and inspection.
Meanwhile those running the grid and generating electricity, you know, greedy corporations, can continue to run pretty much the existing infrastructure for a while longer, and for example Hickley point C (now under construction) will add 3.2 gigawatts, it’s one of eight new stations being built, so 8 x 3.2 = 25.6 gigawatts… just enough to provide overnight baseload charging for 5 million EV’s
What a fucking coinkydink… because 5 million EV’s by 2020-2025 is one of those government think tank numbers.
With 100% new vehicles being EV by 2040, which is just about the right sort of timeline, public acceptance and opinion wise, if you are going to start building 400-450 gigawatts of new nuke power plants by 2040, just in time to run all those EVs, cars and trucks and buses and all.
Given the water cut numbers for Ghawar and all, it’s actually probably sensible, and I’m actually a fan of nuke power, and roll on fusion power… but….
If all this reminds you of the inception of things like Standard Oil and the Railroads in the US, then you’re not far wrong.
Please note, as promised, I haven’t talked about actual EV’s anywhere here, I have talked about the practicalities of the electric power generation and distribution systems required, and NONE of this shit is going to be done along engineering practicality and best practices, ALL of it is being done along the lines of robber barons and corporate hegemony.
Even the one huge remaining practical problem can be solved at the stroke of a pen.
I live in a house with on street parking, and the road in front of me is an A road, my font “garden” is literally wide and long enough for me to park my motorcycle and store two rubbish bins, and out front on the road is residents parking, for which I have 2 permits for 2 cars.
At the stroke of a pen “street furniture” goes up, in UK law those providing “infrastructure” such as BT or cable TV or power grid, do not need planning permission to install street furniture, nor does the council to install parking meters or street lamps.
At the stroke of a pen everyone with on street parking can find a charging post put every car length along this road, and in management synergy you can theh combine residential parking permissions and car charging and vehicle licencing and insurance and everything else, because smart meters and smart cards are not just for houses and phones.
If I am a nice law abiding citizen with a registered domicile and with a legal and insured vehcile and I myself am legal, why, then I can plug my EV into the post in front of my house and both park and charge at the same time.
Easy to put a sensor into the post too, oi, central computer, there is a vehicle next to me that isn’t plugged in, it isn’t even registered to this address, hell, it doesn’t even have an ID (shades of idiocracy… UNSCANNABLE!!!)
Best of all, none of this shit is mandatory, no new laws required, just friendly nice helpful environmentally safe companies providing a valuable service for those who want it.
Whaddayamean you don’t want it… UNSCANNABLE!!!
Of course, it is technically possible to make a 1950’s english electric milk float style EV, but nobody will, every single EV will have MIPS to spare, and it will be used…. look at the new SAFECAR thing being voted in without a peep in the states, no safety standards, the onboard computers do everything, and I mean everything, if the fucking thing can drive itself it can sure as fuck scan every cunt with a phone with bluetooth/wifi/nfc who walks past, and it can sure as fuck report where it is and who is using it, and it can sure as fuck coperate with the smart meter in the smart charging post and the smart utility company to manage profits H^H^H^H loads and demand and so on.
There is NO OTHER POSSIBILITY that what I state here to be actual fact and actual plans that are actually being put into place, all I am doing here is joining the dots.
My only conjectures are that things that could be done will be done, because my life experience tells me that this is so.
You and I, we can sit down and discuss for example my father, and my grandfather, when grandad started driving it was like walking, you bought or made a pair of shoes, and they took you where you willed, and the very idea of licencing was ludicrous, never mind road rules or anything else, sure, there was in theory some shit that applied in far off places like London, but where he was, nah.
Dad was the same, drove for years since he was 14, it was the british army that gave him an actual paper licence, he never sat a driving test in his life.
Me, my dad taught me to drive at 12, ok it was overseas, real culture shock to come back to the UK and be told I needed all sorts of licences and permissions and other bits of paper to do what I had been doing for years, what’s that, you’re sixteen, forget it kid, you can ride a moped and that’s it…. me having ridden motorcyles, driven cars, driver 4 wheel drives, driven old foden arctics, driven boats… you got to be fucking kidding me.
“Smart meters” are the answer to the dumb gas pump, CCTV in filling stations and paying for your fuel in plastic is just a half way house on the road of convenience, full blown CPU’s running full blown OS’s and code in *everything* is the way forwards, and all that shit only makes sense if it all talks to everything else.
And dumb fucks, *especially* dumb fucks in technology, can only moan about why would I want an internet of things toaster, duh…
The Ti disable chip in almost all inkjet cartridges is why, you are not the fucking buyer.
YOU may buy one or two EV’s every few years, to a power generation company, their customers are the guys who manufacture and put 5 million new EV’s on the road every fucking year, THEY talk to each other, YOU do not figure.
Everyone asks what comes next after the fiat money property bubble.
I have ALWAYS maintained that ENERGY PER CAPITA is everything, and have said many many many times, 25 kWh per person per day, that’s basic civilised lifestyle.
EVERYTHING is about energy, and the EV revolution is all about energy, and therefore all about money and power.
For THESE people all the advantages of a gallon of diesel are disadvantages, electrons pushed down a conductor have NONE of the disadvantages of a gallon of diesel, and it gets amazingly double plus good when you can exert extremely fine control and tracking of those electron flows by other electron flows in data streams controlled by CPU’s running software, it’s a fucking wet dream.
Within 6 months you EV CPU will have enough data on you and your usage patterns to allow grid companies to predict six months in advance how much power you will be wanting between 11pm and 7 am on the 13th June 2020.
The only thing we are missing then is the smartest guys in the room, or a hurricane, or lithium whiskers, or stuxnet for scada/canbus, or something, but whatever it is, there will be profit in it, lots and lots of profit.
We aready digitised and virtualised the fiat currency you will NEED to participate in this new energy economy.
Again, all “accidental like”.
All we are missing from the plan is the smart street furniture being remotely addressable on a street by street basis, and then to broadcast as little as 3 metres wirelessly, shut down, or limit power expenditure to drivetrain to 5 kw or 5 mph
Feel free to get out and walk, the shit, EV’s and all, can still track you and your phone walking past.
Most of the building blocks are already in place, the remaining ones are being built as we speak.
What effective measures are in place to prevent abuse, even if it is all 100% “voluntary”
What crime do you believe you will be charged with, should you vandalise or otherwise interfere with any of this infrastructure?
I’ll give you a clue. Terrorism.
At this point, it won’t matter if you are a neo nazi or a raghead or a britain’s got talent fan.
Not that it *has* to be a Huxley distopian future, it doesn’t *have* to be that way, there are ways out if you yourself choose to be a technocrat, as opposed to a user or a luddite.
That it is coming, and as decribed here, that, IMHO, is no longer a subject for debate, there are simply too many connected pieces already in play, to make a profit and survive any large business will have no option but to embrace and extend.
Such is the real nature of technological revolution.
Now you know how all the horse and steam power guys felt when electrictrickery came in… and the wireless telegraph, and the tesla synchronous motor, and the electric light bulb.
Adapt and survive and prosper, or do not.
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