by Sushi for The Saker blog
The Special Relationship
If we examine the position of the UK on the world stage, we observe a pattern of prolonged decline from the august position of imperial hegemon. After the great heights of empire, the UK found itself exhausted and diminished at the end WWII. The Suez crisis of 1956 marked “the end of Great Britain’s role as one of the world’s major powers.”
The UK has since managed to “punch above its weight” in world affairs primarily due to the “special relationship” between the UK and the USA. It was the Blair government that acted to facilitate the US military intervention in Iraq which can only be judged to be a strategic blunder, tactical failure, and humanitarian crime of the greatest proportions.
The current conflict in Syria represents a last ditch western attempt to snatch a small measure of victory from the crushing jaws of defeat. The future of Europe is now called into question due to the resettlement of millions of refugees escaping the conflict zones in Iraq, Syria, and Libya. The internal refugees and displaced persons number in the tens of millions. The attempt to arm “freedom fighters” suffered a massive failure when these various “armies of democracy” achieved spectacular rebirth as ISIS head-choppers.
An entire generation of Middle Eastern youth is now entering adulthood knowing only the misery of war, a series of destructive conflicts caused by intervening foreign armies. The rich citizens of the west have wreaked unimaginable pain and suffering, destroyed entire functioning societies, and have done so because death and destruction is the enlightened way to “democracy” and “freedom.”
If the one word history of the United States is “innovation” and the range of economic growth and opportunity that derives from change, then the one word history of the UK would be “tradition,” the stability that comes from continually recreating the past within the context of the future.
The UK has a traditional head of state, a traditional changing of the guard, tradition embodied in an unwritten constitution, traditional dress, traditional class structure, traditional world view, traditional enemies in France and Russia, a tradition that if you attend Eton, and place your genitals in the snout of a pig, then you will become Prime Minister, and a corresponding tradition that once Prime Minister you shall resign when your proposals are rejected by the public as David Cameron resigned on 13th July 2016 on the outcome of the Brexit vote.
Donald Trump is anything but traditional. The reason “deplorable Americans” elected him was the fact he not only promised a different way of doing things, he embodied that change, and broadcast it daily in 140 word bursts of Twitterese.
In June of 2016, following the Brexit vote, the island nation of Britain entered a period of great economic uncertainty. Across the Atlantic, the Republican candidate for president wanted to tear up all existing trade arrangements and renegotiate them to the benefit of the US. This initiative came precisely when the UK was counting on the US market to compensate for changes in its terms of trade with the EU. Trump’s protectionist, semi-isolationist, platform saw no need for an“obsolete” NATO, did not believe hostility toward Russia served US interests, sought to Make America Great Again but demonstrated little concern for the impact this might have on existing foreign relationships. The welfare of foreign countries was not Trump’s concern; Trump promised to upset the global applecart.
Can you imagine how the Trump campaign was viewed by the upper crust of the tradition bound UK elite? They had not encountered such upheaval since July 2 1776. There was only one thing worse than the Molotov cocktail hurling insurgent campaigner Trump and that was an elected to high office Molotov cocktail hurling insurgent President Trump. You can almost hear the sotto whispers, the elite accents filling dark rooms panelled with 311 years of cigar smoke and brandy fumes, all of them asking “What shall we do if he wins?”
And this brings us round to the Steele Dossier.
On reading the Steele Dossier a number of elements jump off the page.
The dossier opens with the report of a salacious ceremony in the Moscow Ritz-Carleton – prostitutes hired to urinate on the same bed once occupied by President Obama and his wife. No one was grabbed by the pussy but this alleged incident certainly grabs the attention of the reader and compels further reading.
Steele’s sources are described “speaking,” “said,” “confided to a trusted compatriot,” “speaking in confidence,” “speaking separately,” “confidentially confided,” “speaking in confidence to a trusted associate,” “speaking in early August,” “confides directly to Putin,” “Overheard Putin.” The sources appear able to eavesdrop, or participate in, conversations taking place at the very heart of the Russian power structure.
How does a washed up spy in Belgravia cultivate such a network of agents and penetrate deep into Putin’s inner circle? How was it possible for such salacious rumour and intimate privileged communication to come only to Steele’s attention? Steele is located in distant London yet he appears to have better local knowledge than the coterie of MI6 agents and the small army of UK diplomats deployed to Moscow. Diplomats and spies are paid to attend dull cocktail parties with the sole intent to gather exactly the type of intelligence that makes its exclusive appearance in the Steele Dossier. But only Steele has access to this rich haul? Does this not strike you as odd?
Trump is a game show host, a beauty pageant impresario, a casino operator, a golf course magnate, a Hugh Hefner of real estate, a serial bankrupt who has somehow captured the Republican nomination for President of the United States of America, a position judged to be the most powerful in the world, a position with a finger poised over a multitude of buttons. One button triggers Armageddon. The other button sends $150 million worth of Tomahawks screaming into the heart of darkness above Syria. Do you not think the other nations of the world have a degree of concern over the psychology of this game-show host cum political revolutionary? Would they not want to know the character of a man who threatens to tear up all existing trade treaties because they are so not good, so sad, so, so unfair to America? Would they not want to understand his business dealings? Know his true political outlook? His sympathies? His prejudices? The real size of his hands? Would not a thousand pairs of ears be alert for any scrap of information about Trump? But only Steele was listening in?
On Trump achieving the nomination, every state with a half competent intelligence service would be searching the globe for any scrap of intelligence on the man named Donald Trump. Many of these nations are military allies of the US. Do you believe any of them would encounter the explosive material uncovered by Steele and yet not bring it the attention of their governments, or to their counterparts in US intelligence?
According to Glen Simpson’s August 22nd, 2017 testimony before the Senate Judiciary Committee, Steele did not pay his sources. He did pay his “collectors,” a euphemism for a paid gaggle of Moscow spies who then obtained information from unwitting confidants operating in the heart of the Kremlin. Think about that for a minute. According to Theresa May and Boris Johnson the reach of Russian Intelligence is so great and vast the SVR can reach out and murder two innocents in Salisbury, then vanish into thin air. Russia’s motive? Skripal said bad things about Putin.
But, if Steele is to be believed, some of the closest associates of Putin, those entirely familiar with his murderous ways, those who know their lives hang by a thread in a police state which has them under constant surveillance, citizens of a lawless state free to murder anyone at any time using lethal nerve agents such as were used against the Skripals, these same people are willing to risk their lives for a few dollars of compensation from failed MI6 agent Steele? If you believe that story, I have a barely used bridge across the East River that I would like to sell to you.
How does Steele remit payment to his Moscow “collectors?” Can the FSB not trace this flow of money? If the SSSR monitors the communications of Yulia Skripal, is it not likely they would pay close attention to persons communicating with Steele in London? Steele is after all a known secret agent and ran the Russia House within MI6. Any communication with Steele would place the confidant under immediate suspicion. So how does Steele receive his informant information? By letter post? Email? Does he loiter by a red telephone box waiting for his agents to ring him up? London calling North Pole?
Once you begin to examine it, the Steele narrative is found to be as bogus as the Skripal story. But there is a significant difference between Steele and Skripal. The allegations contained in the Steele Dossier resulted in an investigation led by United States Special Counsel Robert Mueller, former Director of the FBI. Mueller’s team of lawyers and investigators amounts to a staff of over three dozen at an estimated cost of $1.3 million per month starting in May 2017.
The outcome of Mueller’s investigation? Four guilty pleas to a charge of giving a false statement to the FBI. One guilty plea in respect of identity theft. One person charged with filing a false tax return and other financial offenses. Sixteen persons charged for wire fraud, bank fraud, and conspiracy to defraud. That is not much to show for over 900,000 hours of legal investigation and $16 million dollars in public funds. And the American grand jury system makes it possible to indict a ham sandwich.
No one was charged for bedwetting in the Ritz-Carleton Moscow. If the Russians had interfered in the US election to get their man Trump elected do you not believe such a fact would have led by now to a charge of impeachment? The accusations against Trump have been many. The evidence against him is nil.
The Steele Dossier includes allegations which can be disproved. The leak of the DNC email server was not performed by a 400 pound hacker sitting on his bed in Petrograd, Leningrad, Saint Petersburg, or anywhere else. Forensic analysis of the metadata embedded in the files reveals they were downloaded to a USB stick, or similar locally attached device, and were not downloaded over a trans-Atlantic Internet connection which results in a significantly greater transfer time. The Steele Dossier wastes considerable ink on an allegation which may be refuted by anyone with some technical knowledge. Julian Assange knows who provided the SNC files to WikiLeaks and he asserts it was not Russia.
Which leaves us with the question: “How did Steele collect information the CIA and MI6 and all the rest of the alphabet agencies missed?” Missed not only by the alphabet agencies but also by the small army of diplomats that accompany them. Steele is clearly a super spy. Put him on the national payroll and you could dispense with all of the alphabet agencies.
Intelligence agencies do not seek out the truth. They understand that “truth” is almost impossible to obtain. The best you can achieve is the probability of truth, indications that deliver advance warning of some unfavourable activity. Intelligence agencies ask lots of questions and then work to make sense of the information puzzle that results.
What if Steele had no “collectors” in Moscow?
What if Steele retained connections to the UK intelligence community? Former colleagues he could approach for material? For saleable product?
What if Steele had a contact inside GCHQ, the British equivalent of NSA?
What if this contact was supplying Steele with communications intercepts of conversations occurring in Russia? The UK is known to maintain an intercept station on Cyprus that vacuums up telephone traffic from much of the Middle East. The May government claims this station intercepted the message “the package has been delivered” and that this phrase refers to the attempted murder of the Skripals.
Any intercept station will collect millions of scraps of information including salacious rumour, and who said what, when, chitchat. If this intercept material was provided to Steele would this not explain exactly how he ran a stable of spies inside Russia without any need of the support services, or technical assistance, available from MI6? When Steele was actually running agents in Moscow, he communicated by using a fake rock. He would not have required such technical aids if all his intelligence was sourced in the UK from within the British intelligence services.
Mixed in with this genuine intercept material would be the disinformation Steele’s true client wanted to deliver to the world. Who was that true client? Was it his former employer? Who had the most to lose with the election of Trump? With the obsolescence of NATO? The rapprochement with Russia? The abrupt change in the terms of trade?
Intelligence agencies are known to engage in Black jobs. If the prospective new manager of the IMF is someone who you would rather not see in that position you might, for example, compromise him with a hotel maid, release the results to the press, and so damage his / her reputation that s/he is no longer eligible for the position.
If your nation had just voted to leave the EU trading area, and your relationship with your top trading partner might possibly be threatened by President Trump, would you not have strong incentive to “manage” the flow of information, to “influence” public opinion, to “nudge” the electorate toward the opposing candidate?
Is it not probable that the Steele Dossier represents an attempt to interfere in the US election? Interference not by Russia but by Her Majesties Government? That a person, or persons, unknown arranged for Steele to be provided with information intended to compromise Donald Trump, to turn the electorate against him, and to emsure a Clinton victory?
Is there evidence to support such an allegation?
First there is the previously mentioned difficulty of managing an agent network inside Russia from a location in the UK. Second there is the question of why persons high in the Russian power structure would risk their position, or their lives, for the few dollars paid by Steele. Third, there is the strange case of the “Alfa group” which is transcribed in the Steele Dossier as the “Alpha Group.” Someone high in the Russian hierarchy would not make this error. A transcription clerk might make such an error; they listen to a raw intercept, hear Alfa and transcribe it into English as Alpha. Steele speaks Russian but does not catch this mistake. Why? Because he does not read the reports allegedly compiled by him? Perhaps he collects them from his mole, correction, his handler within the UK intelligence apparatus, and transmits them to his ostensible client, Fusion GPS? A modern day version of the Zinoviev letter?
In August 2016 Steele traveled to Rome to deliver his material to an FBI contact. No investigation was opened. In September 2016 Steele invites journalists from the The New York Times, The Washington Post, Yahoo! News, The New Yorker, and CNN, to a Washington briefing on his material. No stories are written. Steele then arranges to meet journalist David Corn in New York and on October 31st, eight days before the election, the story breaks. But it gains no traction.
Everyone knew Clinton was going to win. Clinton was the choice of the establishment, the media, the leadership of the FBI, all the important people in Washington and New York, Facebook and Google. She was the status quo candidate, the “We came. We saw. He died” candidate. Nobody seemed to pay much attention to the fact that America, for the 2016 election cycle at least, remained a democracy. And the “Deplorables” still had a vote. They voted for true change, for the candidate they believed best recognized and protected their interests. Is that not how democracy works? Are we not committed to bombing Syria until they understand this basic point?
There is one more meaningful piece of evidence. On January 10th 2017 Buzzfeed publicly released the full Steele Dossier which was known to be the worst kept secret in Washington. On the same day, the May government issued a DMSA notice which prohibited the UK press from revealing Steele to be the author. Thankfully, the colonies now enjoy First Amendment rights. The Wall Street Journal named Steele as the author the next day on January 11th, 2017.
On the same day, Steele packed his family into the car, asked a neighbour to take care of his cats, and disappeared. He did not return until March 27th, 2017 a period of almost 3 months. It is hard to disappear for 3 months when you have four kids, the youngest aged five. But, if your government knows you have been acting on behalf of the state, they will likely make available a safe house in which you may remain secreted until a proper risk assessment can be completed.
How does this effect Sergei and Yulia?
I doubt Yulia transferred documents hidden in a sack of buckwheat. I suspect HMG became aware Skripal was contemplating a return to Russia. He is reported to have written to Putin and to have made several trips to the Russian embassy in London. He had no family in England and spent his free time playing scratch-cards, computer games, and tending to his Guinea pigs.
Is it possible Skripal was involved in providing detail known only to him? Details to ensure the authenticity, and acceptance, of the Dossier material? HMG knew it could rely on Steele and Pablo Miller. All intelligence operatives had been legally silenced since the Peter Wright affair. Skripal was untrustworthy, a double agent with dual citizenship. He might flee and be an embarrassment to the May government. The embarrassment would be all the greater on the election of Trump. The picture at the head of this article portrays the “Special Relationship” as seen at a NATO parade in May of 2017. You can judge for yourself the special nature of the feelings between Trump and May. Can you imagine how that relationship would alter if the allegations presented here were proved to be true?
The revelation that the toxin employed against the Skripals was a cocktail of BZ and a less than lethal dose of A-234 makes sense in the context of an attempt to silence Skripal. The objective was not to kill, but to incapacitate, to place the Skripals in an environment where they were fully under the control of the state, protected from International legal obligations, and denied habeas corpus. After a dose of hallucinogens it should be possible to convince them that their lives were at risk and they should accept the generous offer of new identities and re-settlement in a secret overseas location. If they fail to agree, more BZ may be the antidote.
Cover-ups are always worse than the original crime. A botched cover-up leaves you even more exposed. But May has enjoyed some short term benefit.
Boris Johnson is known for his “dead cat” theory. You throw a bloody feline carcass onto the center of the meeting table and the entire audience is transfixed in horror. They can think and speak of nothing but the awful spectacle before them. This means, of course, they have no attention to spare for other matters.
The Skripal attack occurred on March 4th, 2018. Four days later the May government released information they had declined to produce for public review before March 8th, 2018. A full exposition of what you were not meant to read may be found here.
Goebbels would be impressed.
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Prior articles in this series:
https://10.16.86.131/a-curious-incident/
https://10.16.86.131/a-curious-incident-part-ii/
https://10.16.86.131/a-curious-incident-part-iii/
https://10.16.86.131/a-curious-incident-part-iv/
https://10.16.86.131/a-curious-incident-part-v/
https://10.16.86.131/a-curious-incident-part-vi/
https://10.16.86.131/a-curious-incident-part-vii/
https://10.16.86.131/a-curious-incident-part-viii/
https://10.16.86.131/a-curious-incident-part-ix/
https://10.16.86.131/a-curious-incident-part-x/
–– ∞ ––
Many persons commenting on the Saker blog, and in information sources other than the MSM, have made statement similar to the following:
While scanning for news that morning I noticed that all of the MSM had basically the same text to describe the event, but in a few cases different headlines, mainly dependent on which side of the Pond they came from. I skipped them, they seemed too coordinated.
This lack of critical coverage on the part of the MSM reduces your ability to come to your own conclusions with respect to the truth. This is a critical issue both with respect to an understanding of this Curious Incident, and to the proper functioning of any democratic polity.
The Saker does not tell me what to write. But he is generous enough, and sufficiently concerned over the current state of geo-strategic chess, that he makes these, and other articles, freely available to a global audience. I see he is presently making an appeal for donations to help defray the cost of hosting the site. I am paid nothing, but I do have an IT background and IT is not inexpensive. I ask that if you find this series informative that you support the site.
The Saker has not asked me to make this request.
In memory of David Christopher Kelly, CMG (14 May 1944 – 17 July 2003)
In part X, I asked this:
“Sushi,
If, for sake of argument, we accept that BZ was not used then is it possible that US/Salisbury made ‘Novichok’ was used on the Skripals and an antidote absolutely immediately applied? That US patent applies to an antidote which implies two things, one, that however unlikely, the scenario just described could have occurred and, two, that in order to develop the antidote, Novichok had to have been created, likely in the UK Porton Down, USA or elsewhere such as Georgia or the Ukraine.
Perhaps some kind of additional knock out drug would be necessary? Would the Salisbury hospital’s doctor statement that no patients were suffering from nerve agent poisoning be still valid if the antidote was applied prior to hospital admission?”
I am still trying to reconcile that Salisbury doctor’s statement to The Times and wondered if you would be kind enough to comment on that last line above.
If your hypothesis is true it sounds like Trumps’s 100+ missiles should have been targeted at May?
I also see the Skripal hoax tied in with the Syria chem hoax but fail to see any tangible benefit connection to Brexit.
As the Skripal and Douma manufactured false-flags crumble, as they are and inevitably must, all of this is only a short term benefit to the May regime and long term it will not only hasten her demise but also damage NATO ‘solidarity’?
I’ll give my best response but there is a growing difficulty with this case as it is increasingly impossible to pin down the most elementary facts. Myranazov stated the NOVICHOCK compounds degrade at 3% per year to the point they have no further lethal effect. Uglev, in a recent BBC interview, states a sealed ampoule of A-234 has an infinite shelf life and retains full lethality throughout that period of storage. One says A-234 is extremely volatile and breaks down quickly in the environment, the other says it is extremely persistent hence the need to spend the next two months decontaminating Salisbury.
All this simply adds to the confusion and makes it increasingly difficult to draw valid conclusions about any aspect of the incident. This works to the advantage of May and HMG.
1) Knock-out drugs
I’m presently leaning toward the used of a cocktail of BZ (for the immediate knockout) and A-234 (to give evidence against Russia). Uglev in his BBC interview suggests the use of an A-234 dose below the lethal threshold.
2) Doctor Letter to The Times
At that stage of events there was an outbreak of public hysteria. Emergency services were called to Sarum House just down the road from Zizzi due to a women suffering an acute panic attack. The hospital was seeing a sudden uptick in patients worried they had suffered a nerve agent attack.
This form of public hysteria can quickly build and become unmanageable. My hunch is the NHS consultant may have told a “white lie” to tamp down public concerns and avert further hysterical response.
3) Pre-application of Antidote
A few articles back a reader gave a link to a September 2015 patent. This patent concerned an antidote for OP agent poisoning. It also suggested the same compound be used as a prophylactic i.e. you take it BEFORE you mess with OP agent so that if something goes wrong you have a decent chance of survival. From a medical / technical point of view what you suggest seems entirely possible. But again without factual knowledge of the agent employed the analysis is reduced to speculation.
4) Missiles at May
There is other evidence to back up my hypothesis. If proved correct then it is not going to help HMG in maintaining the “Special Relationship.” Trump appears much more keen on Macron of France and less enamoured of May. The truth of UK involvement may already have been communicated to the US side. If so, then both parties are more likely to bury it then to publicize the matter.
5) Brexit Connection
The May 8 release of Brexit analysis details a negative hit of between 3% and 9% of UK GDP. The release was opportunistic to benefit from public distraction. I do not think the attack on the Skripals motivated by a need to distract the public. I agree with the hypothesis that Skripal created an opening to attack Putin, link Putin with the use of chemical agents, and use that awareness to create public disgust with Russia over a false flag gas attack in Ghouta. The rapid advance of the SAA likely precluded this PR effort. The SAA found 40 tons of precursor chemicals around the time of the Skripal attack. My bet is they pushed the offensive hard as they had warning of what was coming. I suspect Putin’s messaging in early March about new Russian weapons may have also been a warning to all those states playing with fire in Syria.
6) NATO
The US is the worse enemny of NATO. Trump’s sanctions against Russia impose economic costs on the EU and NATO members but have limited effect of the US. I think we will see a move toward a EU military and command structure independent of NATO and the US imposed command. This is already taking place. The EU will benefit from developing its own arms producers, obtain independence from US military and economic policies, likely provide the necessary defence infrastructure at lower cost per EU member, avoid “NATO adventurism” such as occurred in the Ukraine, and rebuff Turkey in its bid for EU membership.
As for the benefits to May, I understand there was a drop in her poll numbers after the Syria attack. Eventually she will lose all credibility with the public and be pushed out of the leadership. Fingers crossed.
Sushi,
Thanks for your very comprehensive reply. My only comment is that I thought NATO was the Hegemon’s proxy muscle boy in Europe?
the fact appears to be that uk british secret services mixed two chemical weapons.
by accident by contamination of tools or on purpose.
but what ever it is the only actors that are able to mix chemical weapons are research facilities like the one in porton down.
it is highly unlikely that criminals can get 2 types of chemical weapons from different parts of the world safely mix them and then keep the the mix intact to arrive in a lab in switserland after applying it in the open air.
or maybe the uk sent an unrelated mix of chemicals to the opcw and the skripals suffered from food poison, who is checking if the sample really is coming from the skripals.
There is a paradox here with the so-called special relationship.
The US entered WW2 only when Britain agreed to relinquish its Empire; and the supply of goods during WW2 (rusty ships) were the equivalent of debt bombs – after WW2 the US insisted on repayment of all loans with interest, to ensure the UK was effectively bankrupt.
When the US torpedoed the Suez invasion by Britain and France it was the final dagger, and ensured the UK had no influence East of the Mediterranean.
Given that recent history, why would the UK want anything to do with the US? Never mind being an “ally” Maybe its the Rothchild banking cabals, and deeper forces at work?
“The revelation that the toxin employed against the Skripals was a cocktail of BZ”
Really? Even RT knows by now that this was a canard sett off by Lavrov: https://www.rt.com/news/424475-opcw-swiss-bz-agent-salisbury/
“Samples of the BZ nerve agent were tested at the OPCW-accredited Swiss lab in the Skripal poisoning case, but only as part of control procedures,” (Emphasis mine.)
So technically Lavrov may have been correct, but of course he knew perfectly that his statements would be interpreted as saying “The Skripals have been murdered with BZ”.
I at first agreed with you and discounted Lavrov’s remarks both for the same reason given by you and because I have some experience in laboratory test proceedures and running a test on a known sample is a standard control to ensure all test equipment is operating correctly.
But on second thought I realized that this is a very highly regarded laboratory and it is engaged in perfroming an assay of some critical importance. And despite this fact it fails to properly clear the control test material before conducting the actual assay?
This does not strike me as the degree of perfromance to be expected from a highly regarded laboratory engaged in perfroming an assay of some critical importance. It stikes me as sloppy and negligent in the extreme.
So something is not quite right here. And this latest discrepancy can be added to the long list of curious incidents associated with the Skripal affair.
Sushi, thank you for your considerate reply! I’m happy to we can still have a friendly discussion here.
As reported by the NZZ (in German), the procedure concerning control samples is like this: The OPCW sends the actual samples together with various control samples to their laboratories, not telling them which one is which. The point is that to twofold: first, to cross-check that the laboratories’ result are correct, by comparing their results for the control with the known substance; second, to try and make sure that the laboratories do not know with certainty the outcome of the investigation.
In any case, even if it is as you say, then what is the conclusion? How do you arrive at your belief that the toxin employed was a cocktail of BZ, if you do not trust the laboratory? And how about Lavrov’s statements, are they highly deceptive or not? I have the impression that you’ve avoided addressing these points.
The NZZ reporting makes considerable sense and clears the Swiss lab of collusion.
My “belief” is a conjectural hypothesis. Is it possible this happened? Are there facts in the case to support such an interpretation?
When the BZ information appeared and I tried to fit that to the known facts with resepect to effects timing and no victim deaths it made some sense: 1) Use a sub-lethal dose of A-234 to give evidence against Russia; 2) Use BZ to ensure the “knock-out” of the victims and ensure they become compliant due to surreal nature of their experience.
In his BBC interview Uglev states his belief that the Skripals were administered a sub-lethal dose of A-234. If that is a correct assumption on his part (it is not yet a confirmed fact) then it is possible A-234 is so toxic that even a sub-lethal dose has significant effect on the victim and incapacitates but does not kill.
If you agree with this line of thinking you are drawn to the fact that 1) some unknown 3rd party had to have suffcient knolwedge of A-234 and its physiological effects to know that a sub-lethal dose was possible and 2) the same 3rd party had enough knolwedge of the victims to properly calculate the sub-lethal dosage forthem.
Taken together, both of these assumptions direct attention toward a 3rd party with extensive scientific knolwedge of the toxin. This is unlikely to be a lone assassin, a criminal syndicate hit man, or a state kill team as all of these either would lack such detailed knowledge or had no concern if the victims died. That was the desired outcome.
The only party who would have an interest in conducting an attack that appeared serious, but was sub-lethal, would be the UK government. Such a conclusion would support the theis given in Part XI.
Thanks for the critique. It is only through an examination of conflicting hypotheses that if becomes possible to come close to a speculative truth.
Cheers!
Uglev i
@Zuri
“Samples of the BZ nerve agent were tested at the OPCW-accredited Swiss lab in the Skripal poisoning case, but only as part of control procedures,” (Emphasis mine.)”
————–
Well. Yeah. The general public and media buy so much pure horsemanure as gospel these days why should this bit be any different? Why on earth would one *add BZ to a blood sample for a control? Answer: you wouldn’t. You’d use blood not contaminated by any chemical agent for a control. (IOW, you don’t doctor drawn blood with BZ and call that a control.)
The gentleman is lying (yawn) – IF there was an investigative journalist out there – they’d ask Spiez. ‘Sides, if I remember right that Spiez report said it was Skripal blood and they found both agents – ie., not a control.
What the OPCW gentleman didn’t explain was how come the Novichok hadn’t attenuated to barely findable after a month – but then nobody asked him either.
——————-
*Add to a sample as opposed to dose a living person with it just to test for it. (Not that I would put that past the British – it would help keep inconvenient and objectionable patients quite amenable.)
David Kelly has not left my mind since. My respects.
Appreciate your continuance of these events!
I could imagine Skripal acting as a channel for junk info to achieve Steeles ends…getting payed sufficiently whilst thinking to return to Russia and restablish himself having enough for a dowry for potential daughters marriage with her friends boyfriend pets and relatives still around …home etc eg a western lifestyle…writing memoirs ..not sure he would qualify for a Russian state pension…then when back becoming rehabilitated…proof of Putins mercy and can claim that the info he sold was junk but still might of value ie roubles to security services to identify non friends of the President plus what he knows now of UK and usa plus Syrian chemical stuff too….
….sounds like a possible double agent redoubling….? And where is boyfriend….. changed his job…still on staff lists…etc etc
Sushi,
The OPCW has released a two-page public document regarding Salisbury:
https://www.opcw.org/fileadmin/OPCW/S_series/2018/en/s-1612-2018_e___1_.pdf
Paras 10-12 (last three paragraphs) are interesting if not entirely illuminating:
[quote]
10. The results of analysis by the OPCW designated laboratories of environmental and biomedical samples collected by the OPCW team confirm the findings of the United Kingdom relating to the identity of the toxic chemical that was used in Salisbury and severely injured three people.
11. The TAV team notes that the toxic chemical was of high purity. The latter is concluded from the almost complete absence of impurities.
12. The name and structure of the identified toxic chemical are contained in the full classified report of the Secretariat, available to States Parties.
[unquote]
And of course State Parties are bound by OPCW secrecy rules. No chance of scrutiny by the public. The UK has announced that it was A-234 and OPCW has implied that it concurs (para 10). At this point those who support the UK narrative will shout, ‘yay’.
But hang on a minute. Hasn’t the RF rep to OPCW forwarded documents to prove that Novichok, another term used by the UK to refer to the said toxic agent, been patented in the US?
Why, yes. According to Tass:
“THE HAGUE, April 18. Russia has submitted the proof that the Novichok agent was produced and patented in the United States as a chemical weapon in 2015, Russia’s Permanent Representative at the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) Alexander Shulgin said on Wednesday.”
More:
http://tass.com/politics/1000583
Better still watch RF Ambassodor to UK’s live interview which he gave last week (13 Apr): https://youtu.be/1zSj_r9pTuw
I think an unintended side-effect is the spotlight shone on Porton Down. I’m not sure if RF can do it under CWC rules, but could RF demand a site inspection of Porton Down? One of the Articles (Art 9) of the CWC, which I’ve read with a layman’s eye, seems to suggest it is possible but I could be wrong.
On another point, it would be interesting to know what motivated a GRU Colonel like Skripal to betray family, friends and country. Was it money? Jealousy? Revenge? Boredom? Or is he an unrepentant spy? He seems to be close to his former (?present) controller, Pablo Miller, and was rumoured to be actively involved in the chemical (as in weapons) trade as well. Who knows.
basil
Well Basil,
If Skripal was involved in compiling the Steele dossier, as an off-the-books op by British intelligence to provide insurance and curry favour with the Queen of Chaos, HRC, a lock to win the US presidency, then her loss to Trump makes the whole op a massive political liability. It’s not just Skripal we haven’t seen for weeks, but Pablo Miller and Steele himself.
Or Boris Johnson for that matter ;)
basil
As another possibility I have wondered if Skripal senior was in fact previously a triple agent and that this was only recently discovered by MI6 who then decided on a soft ‘elimination’ with the ‘Putin/Russia did it’ wrapper tacked on. Having the father/daughter angle is also good for the public media consumption meme.
Agreed, it’s a lesser possibility.
Sushi,
Many of us have been fascinated and instructed by your Curious Incident series, including this latest instalment. That said, I was hoping you might follow up on the extraordinary OPCW claim that BZ was used as a control agent during the testing of A-234. I think it’s clear that the presence of either subject in a state of high purity in environmental samples collected after 3 weeks is very likely proof of evidence tampering.
But why would any lab use BZ as a control substance, being so different from A-234? Why would they use a substance whose effects match what we think we know of the facts of the poisoning? It’s as if they had solved the crime, eliminated (or covered up) the possibility that the substance was BZ, before having performed the test, or chosen a control sample for it.
These inferences may be incorrect, but I would welcome your help with the interpretation.
Your train of thought on these topics mirrors my own.
On first hearing of the BZ I thought it made sense to use the BZ to incapacitate the Skripals with the addition of a sub-lethal dose of A-234 in order to implicate Russia.
The the lab came back with the “It was just a control” explanation.
I first accepted this but then realized it made absolutely no sense for the reasons you and others have mentioned.
It is hard to believe this is a “High quality” professional, world leading laboratory if they make an error more typical of an undergrad in Chemistry 101.
Paul:
See my reply upthread to Zuri which develops some of the ideas in your comment and my reply.
Cheers!
‘A sub-lethal dose.’ What is a sub-lethal dose?
Here’s a definition of a lethal dose: “the dose of a chemical or biological preparation (a bacterial exotoxin or a suspension of bacteria) that is likely to cause death; it varies in relation to the type of animal and the route of administration; when followed by a subscript (generally “LD50” or median lethal dose), it denotes the dose likely to cause death in a certain percentage (50%) of the test animals; median lethal dose is LD50, absolute lethal dose is LD100, and minimal lethal dose is LD05.”
https://www.drugs.com/dict/lethal-dose.html
So a sub-lethal dose would have to be a dose well below LD05. This doesn’t kill the victim but doesn’t guarantee that the victim doesn’t suffer permanent damage either. Since A-234 is a type of organophosphate compound, permanent damage would include neuropsychiatric and possibly heart damage. These effects of non-lethal organophosphate poisoning from use of OP pesticides (which are ‘unweaponised’ OP) are well-known.
Two of the victims have reportedly been discharged but they’ve not been seen in public. The only outsiders who have seen all three victims in Salisbury were the OPCW team members who took the blood samples but everyone’s keeping mum about the victims’ physical state.
The UK authorities are jumping through loops and hoops to avoid the RF having a face-to-face meeting with the Skripals and breaking every diplomatic convention in the process. There’s now a suggestin that RF is seeking the UNSC’s assistance to force the UK to give them access to their citizens who were victims of a chemical attack.
The only reason I can think of as to why UK authorities are unwilling to make the Skripals and/or Det Bailey available to the public is their present condition: they may either be dead, tethered to a life-support machine or… up and about, and none the worse for wear — which would make the use of a ‘military grade nerve agent’, namely A-234, at whatever dose, very unlikely.
basil
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5643003/Former-Russian-spy-codenamed-Gordon-identified-police-Russian-spy-poisoning.html
Claims was person who poisened them….”.Codenamed ‘Gordon’, the 54-year-old former FSB spy is thought to use the cover name Mihails Savickis and two other aliases.
However, police fear the suspect has already travelled back to Russia and may never be brought to justice.
British authorities believe there were six agents acting in the poisoning of Sergei Skripal and his daughter Yulia.”
“Stepan Vikeev – seen clearly for the first time in our exclusive picture – vanished after Yulia and her double agent father Sergei Skripal were poisoned with a Russian nerve agent last month.
Moscow security sources have claimed Mr Vikeev, 30, works for a secretive company called the Institute of Modern Security Problems. The clandestine organisation is run by his mother Tatiana, 61, and is said to be an ‘integral part’ of the FSB, which replaced the KGB at the end of the Soviet Union.
Both Mr Vikeev and his mother – also pictured exclusively today – have gone into hiding since the Skripal attack and are being protected by Putin’s agents, according to well-placed sources.
FSB commanders have even blocked access to Moscow authorities who want to interview Mr Vikeev as part of a Russian probe into the case, it was claimed. Our disclosures deepen suspicions that Mr Vikeev and his mother had a role in the Skripal poisoning which Britain has blamed on Russia.
A UK intelligence dossier recently revealed Russian hackers had spied on Yulia’s emails since 2013 in a bid to track her and her father’s lives.
Now Mr Vikeev’s links to the FSB raise the prospect that he was a ‘honeytrap’ planted to keep a close eye on Yulia and her ‘traitor’ father after he was sent to the UK in a spy swap deal in 2010.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5642691/Yulia-Skripals-mystery-partner-goes-hiding-mother.html
“Well placed sources…uk intelligence dossier…it was claimed” etc…yup how did all this info get released……surely 6 agents would be visible traceable etc..?
Perplexing?
“Former Russian spy codenamed ‘Gordon’ is ‘identified by police as suspect in poisoning of Sergei and Yulia Skripal’…but officers fear they will never be able to catch him”
How convenient that they can give up so quickly, but then:
“British authorities believe there were six agents acting in the poisoning of Sergei Skripal and his daughter Yulia”.
And I love the picture of ‘Codename Gordon’ in the Brit rag link above -that adam’s apple is a dead giveaway as to identity!
The integrity of russiaphobia must be maintained!
That photo is beyond parody! Really worth the click to lighten one’s day. The prose exemplifies how to throw in city landfills of outright crap (everything but the kitchen sink) in order to “prove” a foregone conclusion. Btw, “Gordon” is also a character from a Shaw Brothers kung fu movie, who exemplifies the sleaziest kind of western opium/jade smuggler scumbag. One wonders if I Kuang, who wrote 700 screenplays, is a secret influence on the plot coherency of modern British (spook) fantasies?
In uk the old phrase “Gordon Bennet” is interesting..it is a bit like WTF….with a connotation of “unbelievable”…….because something is not believable…
Just one very simple question:cui bono?
Well, in the short term that’s not hard to answer but in the longer term there’s considerable potential for ‘undesirable’ blowback. Villification can come back to bite.
Can we assume the Boy Dauphin, after going to war and launching a few duds, is having a Napoleon moment and feels the need to embrace his inner ‘coloniser’? The French are still smarting over Syria.
US, France & allies should not leave, must build ‘new Syria after war’ – Macron
https://www.rt.com/news/424816-macron-syria-not-leave/
If also the massive US fleet nearing Syria is all about a ‘proper’ Syrian invasion then the Skripal lead into Douma chemical WMD false flag scripts all make sense -and also nonsense in the WWIII sense.
Manufacturing public consent that is, although by the sounds of the polls they will need to keep topping up the false flags. That assumes it is even thought still necessary; ‘mayhem’ May et al have all acted as dictators in their Syria attacks, bypassing the UN and their own parliaments or equivalents.
A new book investigating the fate of Dr David Kelly. The author is a respected investigator with form and the book has already been rubbished in the Times in a review by Aaranovitch. Peter Oborne, who now has trouble getting published himself due to asking awkward questions himself, writes a good riposte on Open Democracy site, (not linked to here) and some blurb on the back cover.
The author has done a good job of covering the awkward questions avoided in the Hutton Inquiry–which was generally about Iraq but specifically held in place of an inquest into the circumstances of Dr Kelly’s mysterious and untimely death.
https://www.amazon.co.uk/s/ref=nb_sb_ss_c_2_13?url=search-alias%3Dstripbooks&field-keywords=miles+goslett&sprefix=MILES+GOSLETT%2Caps%2C777&crid=2XNNPMLI906Z0
While aware of the Pablo Miller and the probable Steele dossier connections I was not aware of the D notice.
https://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2018/04/probable-western-responsibility-for-skripal-poisoning/
Sushi…latest up date
“So-called ‘Novichok trail’ crossing Salisbury could be even bigger than thought
Sergei and Yulia Skripal found critically ill on bench in city centre on March 4
‘Messy’ assassination attempt and rain may have got it on their hands and feet
Police, nurse and children feeding the ducks also came into contact with agent
The ‘messy’ assassination attempt on Sergei Skripal and his daughter on a rainy day in Salisbury may have led to Novichok getting on their shoes and being spread further than thought across the city with every footstep, it was claimed today.
The desperate clear-up is continuing today two months after the first ever nerve agent attack on British soil took place ins Wiltshire.
The so called ‘Novichok trail’ that crosses Salisbury may have got worse because the nerve agent may have been on Sergei and Yulia Skripal’s hands and feet.
Experts believe that the weapon was smeared on the handle of Sergei’s front door but the ‘messy’ attack and heavy rain saw it diluted and spread on the step and drive.
The Novichok came in gel form but with traces of it all over the place for two miles it has not been possible to locate when exactly it was administered – and the zone could be larger than thought.” Etc…more speculation..coupla more details?
Still UK not realeased its answers to Russia ….and Russia not released that or its latest response…..presumably rheir criminal case is still proceedibg …
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5686471/Sergei-Skripal-daughter-got-Novichk-SHOES-spread-deadly-nerve-agent.html
A statement today from Russia
https://www.rt.com/op-ed/425777-skripal-evidence-classified-poisoning/
Russia has produced a document with the lists of questions and answers or not…
SALISBURY :A CLASSIFIED CASE…
Sushi – Thanks for your series….but could you do one last thing here? Could you write – as short as possible – a few paragraphs explaining ‘your last word’ [for the moment] about this whole fog of an issue please?
Just discovered this series, very helpful. Please see this – including early reports from Salisbury – which cast doubt on the Nick Bailey story: http://acloserlookonsyria.shoutwiki.com/wiki/Talk:Poisoning_of_Sergei_Skripal
Just one thing. Ted Heath. Hated by the Tory’s. took UK into the EU. was a man of the people ( almost a socialist ) Spoke openly. was a shy gay, but most who knew him said no way a pedophile. hated Thatcher and her plans to import debt slaver consumerism from the USA.
may ‘ lost the pedo-files on over 100 MP’s and civil servants and royalty. Heath lived in Salisbury. all those ‘lost files ‘ but not his ?
Police chief claims 100% prof on Heath. But never produced any evidence. Was sacked from Wiltshire police and moved north, Has now been forced to resign. so what was it the Skripal’s had ? And why did they also murder another local person months afterward even when it had been proved Novichok had not been used ! What did that person know ? To me all too obvious the links. Typical blundering Eton boys in MI5 . Had Putin wanted to do a job it would have been rather more subtle and no one would even have suspected. With all the ways available MI5 chose to use the wrong stuff and do it all the wrong way. But then they tend to get far too many things wrong and then have to murder people to stop leaks and facts. What a despiacble useless bunch of cretins and they are destroying the entire country to creep up the arse of their puppet masters in the USA who are equally their equals in cretinship.