Today, I want to ask you a simply question.
Let us assume that Russia does not intervene and that, with time and effort, the nationalists regain control of most of the eastern and southern Ukraine. Let is further assume that the referendum wanted by the Russian-speakers is either not held or ignored, while the Presidential election goes ahead and that Poroshenko or Tymoshenko get’s “kind of elected” in a farcical election which, however, the USA and its EU protectorate will immediately recognize as “legitimate”.
What will happen after that?
Say in June? And July. In August and then in September. Let’s even try to imagine what the Ukraine will look like in October. So 6 months from now.
Now, once you have made your prediction first, then ask yourself what would happen in Russia does intervene between now and the end of May.
Then compare the two outcomes and tell me which one you prefer and why.
In other words – would a Russian military intervention make things as seen six months down the road better or worse?
I am curious as to what each of you will reply :-)
Many thanks and kind regards to all,
The Saker
[PS: I think I have beat the flu (finally!). Should be back to normal by tomorrow.]
Scenario one.
Let’s say all of those things you mention happen. Will this give any sort of legitimacy to the Kiev junta in the eyes of the separatists in the south and east of Ukraine? My answer to that is no. Will separatist fever start to die out? Again, I say no. I believe that by then it will be clear to many in the South and East that the events in Odessa in early May were a pre-planned massacre. Separatism is not going away. Now, will the IMF money start to make a difference? The answer to that is not really. If the IMF sticks to its normal plan, that money goes to banks that are owed money by Ukraine. It does not in any way change things for better or worse for the normal people in Ukraine.
There will be an attempt to show the world that nothing has changed. In the upcoming weeks, here in Kiev, there will be “Europe Day in Kiev,” “a parade of cultures” and the “Day of Kiev”. Still, I am not sure how this overt display of diversity will go over with groups like Right Sector. But they may not be a factor because they’ll find themselves having to deal with problems elsewhere. I am quite convinced that Right Sector is not your normal, common, run-of-the-mill Nazis (whatever the hell that is); I am convinced they are the most dangerous group to obtain any kind of power in Europe since World War II. (Or maybe since the breakup of Yugoslavia. I don’t know enough to comment on that).
I don’t expect any type of “real” reality to settle in over the summer. But come September, a lot will change. The austerity price increases that are not so obvious in the summer months will all of a sudden become a looming reality in September. And I do believe the potential exists for another IMF disaster similar to Argentina, 2001.
Now, let’s say that Russia does intervene and drives the junta out of the east of Ukraine. What’s next? I’m not all that convinced that things will return to normal. Right Sector and Svoboda will not all of a sudden just disappear from the scene. If they can’t get what they think is rightfully theirs, they will leave a lot of damage and destruction in their wake. There may be random hit and run terror attacks on targets in places no longer controlled by the junta. And wherever the dividing line between West and East Ukraine is drawn, I do see the possibility existing of some kind of ethnic cleansing in the area not under the control of Russia. At this point, Russia’s best hope would be to either end Banderastan once and for all (a very dangerous scenario indeed), or through the use of agents on the ground in Banderastan, convince the Right Sector radicals that they have been betrayed by the West, and that their anger should be directed in that direction. (a better option)
So, which to choose? An IMF disaster similar to Argentina 2001, or Russian intervention that doesn’t eliminate the problem; it just shifts it from East Ukraine to central Ukraine. Sorry, I can’t choose either one of them. I may be too close to the heart of this mess to view it objectively.
Russia should do what they did in Crimea.
Support the locals resistance with special ops troops and anti aircraft and tank missiles.(I,m sure they are doing that already).
If they let the US and NATO get away with their shenanigans in Ukraine they will only be emboldened to go further and destabilize the region and Russia further.
Putins credibility is on the line if he does nothing.
Covert ops and support for East Ukraine just like Crimea and deny everything!
Obviously the people in Kiev and the Nazis types there are insane.They should be put down in a humane and swift fashion before they create more chaos.
Great post, great questions, but I am going to mainly duck. First, as Saker said in earlier post, Ukraine is now forever broken. I agree. So now what?
I cannot begin to say because I first need to better understand:
a) what does the West want?
b) what does Russia want?
I can’t get a). I think in terms of b) Russia wants stability to continue to grow in strength and depth as a nation which had a rough 20th century and will never be an easy one to manage given its huge geography. Russia wants a Ukraine (which means border or buffer land) to continue as such but I suspect that in this age of instant communications and the jet engine that the buffering capabilities of a buffer state are far less effective than in the pre-telephone age of the horse, when armies marched on foot and had food supply issues accordingly etc.
Speaking of geography: Russia is a nation of the Great Eurasian plains. If you look at Google Earth, you can see that natural territory includes ALL of Ukraine. I think that if the buffer state concept is dead – as it is at least in terms of the recent Ukraine – then Russia should go for all of it.
Of course by referendum!
Saker
Espina said
Fail to plan-Plan to fail. Although this is an extremely difficult situation for Russia i don’t believe for one minute that Vladimir Putin et al are presently wringing their hands, they’re just giving the bankrupt ones and their fascist lapdogs enough rope with
which to hang themselves.
Patience grasshopper………
regards Espina Scotland
an intervention would necessitate taking kiev first, trying to capture as many of the heads of the junta as possible. you dont want to keep the propaganda structures while trying to pacify the country. i guess russia would try to restore public order, get a constitution going and general elections and then try to extricate themselves.
whenever russia decides to intervene the outcome will always be a Syrian scenario. this means total destruction of the social and economic structures in many regions of ukr, but especially in the east. like in Yugoslavia this is a positive outcome for the west since it will lead to good contracts later on and restructuring of ukr economy on western terms.
so i say: an intervention is a no-go. i guess russia is collecting arguments for more openly supporting donbas and maybe get an organised rebellion going. from my short stays in the east and south i got the feeling this might be difficult, since people are much less inclined to oppose kiev than many here think. kharkov is suspiciously quiet. the city is the youngest city in europe and i got the feeling that most people there want a western “liberal” society. i think both kharkov and odessa are crucial for the resistance. but then as i wrote before Ukraine, mon amour ukraine is a country full of contradictions and people are much more resilient than we think.
so in short: i think it makes no difference when russia intervenes.
We should be wary of the “IMF austerity + social collapse” assumption. Once the Kiev Nazis regain control and maintain their anti-Russia stance they will be made economically successful. The reason is that geopolitics is more important to the Anglos than short term financial gain.
The exact historic parallel is Germany 1933:
1. New York funded Nazism Version 1 takes over after BoE and Fed tightening killed the economy.
2. 1933 sees full blown resumption of economic activity in Germany and re-armament leading to zero unemployment, Reichsbank prez Hjalmar Schacht is a protege of Montague Norman of the BoE.
3. Lloyd George and British nobility (Mitford sisters) cheer on the Nazis throughout 1930s.
4. William C. Bullit, US ambassador to Moscow, continuously reassures Stalin.
5. London and Moscow set up the Polish trap.
6. By closing all other avenues to Germany and reassuring Moscow, the Anglos get what they always wanted since 1918: another Russo-German war.
Bottom line:
1. collapse is not assured.
2. non-intervention + political stabilization + Kiev paying some gas bills is no success for Russia but increases the bet medium term.
Two articles to read:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-04-21/riders-storm-fictional-letter-explaining-what-going-russia
http://oko-planet.su/politik/politikukr/241268-chernyy-may-ili-tanki-na-zapad.html
Scenario 1 bear bating gets messy in Kiev, we have already seen the pro maidan insurgents fight the not far but orbital rightwing groups.
Scenario 2 general winter kicks in. And EU freezes as a result.
Just a point on the commenter on “England” conspiracies, I am from that island and take offense at the blanket insults. It is the government who are the ones who are stirring up nothing but trouble, not the ordinary folks. Wait and see what happens with the so called EU elections on the 25th.
Attempts are being made to pull the rug from under their feet.
The only ones who are rushing headlong into a fine mess are the Washington and Brussels political politigarches
I think where wolf comment above shows the Russian political thinking at the moment.
#1 By the end of october IMF&Co will have a stronghold over the country. Soon after so-called presidential election a currency reform is anounced. Further savings are carried out. When John Doe in the west finally realizes that he has been betrayed it is too late. Any opposition will be crushed ruthlessly. Someone sometime quoted Martin Niemöller on this board. That’s what’s gonna happen to the western population (exept some right wing guays in their National Guard).
#2 A Russian invasion? Highly unlikely. If ever this should happen, I doubt that the Russians would go into the west. But by not doing so, it would give the Interim-government an undue legitimation. Tensions will rise. Though tensions might not immediately unload because a) ukrainian military are assembled mainly in the east and overrun/overtaken by the Russians and b) right wing fighters are eliminated (they will either be so stupid to try a fight or they are forced to fight because they fear the consequences of their ‘atrocities’). But US/Eu will make sure that Russia suffers economical sanctions. No way out for hesitant European leaders. In fact I believe that this would strengthen EU-US-relationship and I further believe that this is the last thing Putin wants.
Whereas #1 will leave the EU with a big problem. Next winter is coming, gas negotations won’t be resolved in time.
Main problem for a reasonable solution might be the right wing. As the idea of May,25-Referendum was knocked down, it is clear that Yats does not have power to enforce his plans. Getting rid of the right wing might be a major challenge.
The only wild card I see remains with the Ukrainian Military. Imagine the May 11-Referendum is carried out – though not everywhere. In fact I believe that the aim of the current clashes in some selected cities is merely to give the Interim-government a reason to decline the results of the May 11-Referendum. But even if the May 11-Referendum is only partially successful, this might give the Military nonetheless a pretence to refuse further action against the population. If the National Guard continues the fight, they might even step in. Eventually talks might be resumed under participation of the East (what Lavrov has been asking for recently) and a federal&unified Ukraine might be reached.
If the military continues its support for the Interim-Government or if the results of the May 11-Referendum are discouraging, I’m pessimistic. We are than back at #1.
Well, what is “Russian intervention” supposed to mean?
There are many ways of how to intervene. What will certainly not happen is a full blown Russian invasion.
Possible Russian interventions are sending weapons and fighters to SE. Organizing resistance. Political work, propaganda work. Dragging the Ukie high militaries to our side. The whole shebang. Step by step. It’s a process.
So, the choice between 1) and 2) is really a false choice. Really 2) is the only choice, the question is only what exactly is 2) supposed to be? And here I think we can’t really know and we have to trust Putin, even if what he does eventually turns out to not have the desired effect, I think it would be still the right decision, because Putin’s decisions are much more informed that any of us think.
It seems like the west wants to force Russia into a binary rationale, but imo what Russia has chosen is the third way, which will be a long process.
I think most commenters are missing the forest for the trees. The key question is – “What is Washington’s strategic intent and goal?”
Without question, it is the demise of Russia as a superpower and leader of the Rest of the World against the West – ie the G7 countries in the main plus the Eyes5 Anglo-Saxon countries. It is also the demise of President Putin as leader of the Rest of The World. It is thus at once, an existential threat to Russia as a country and the removal of President Putin as leader of Russia ultimately, which in Washingtonspeak, is referred to as “regime change” Russia. (Truly, how shamed will the Russians be when this happens. Their “destiny” or fate, determined by a hostile country in the West.)
In short, to maintain and tighten Washington’s grip as the imperial power and leader of Planet Earth.
As such the key to this larger chessboard which determines whether President will intervene in Ukraine, is President Xi and China.
If President Xi backs President Putin and Russia all the way in war as well as in economics, Washington and NATO will stay out of any war against intervention by President Putin/Russia. With the threat of China supporting Russia if NATO intervenes, the nuclear war WILL be too high a price for Washington and Brussels.
Be assured, in such a scenario, Washington, London, Paris, Berlin, Tokyo, New York, Los Angeles, San Franciso, will be taken out also as will Moscow, St Petersburg, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Chengdu. Similarly, ALL of the 1,000 US military bases (or that number thereof throughout the world – from San Diego to Diego Garcia to Okinawa to Guam to Pearl harbor – will all be obliterated with immediate effect. US’s satellites will also be targeted and destroyed, as will Russia’s and China.
cont… in Part2/3
Part 2/3
y itself, Russia is perhaps not strong enough to confront NATO (ie US) and may become cannon fodder. However, with China and Iran and Brazil allied to Russia, Putin/Moscow has a good chance of neutralizing Washington’s aggressive and hostile moves. The costs will be too high if Washington moves its “knights” confront Russia in Ukraine.
It is therefore imperative that Russia MUST NOT be isolated. It must have ALLIES. It MUST NOT be made to stand alone against a an aggressive, hostile global power.
The decision for intervention and triggering a larger war is therefore, NOT about Ukraine and lives of Ukrainians. These are immaterial.
Unless President Putin and Russia is strong supported and allied by BRIC countries and Iran, Washington will have strong cards and will be more willing to start a war with Moscow or calculatingly, initate more moves to nibble away at Russia, China,Iran,and Brazil in order to split them up to reduce their control over natural resources that enable them to be superpowers.
Mr Xi/China MUST find the courage to ally itself unequivocally with President Putin/Russia. He must NOT worry too much about the adverse impact on its fortunes in the Global Economic Order/System controlled by Washington, if he does. With BRICS and Iran, and the Rest of The World, it CAN create a new and separate International Economic Order and continue enhancing it’s peoples’ prosperity. Forget about US and the G7 countries.
Why, when you finally show some spine and stand up for your national pride, sovereignty, and dignity of Chinese (ie be prepared to die for it), you might even find Europe and Japan willingly desert the old Washington-controlled Order and join the New Global Economic Order created by BRICS! Think about it.
Meantime, Washington is unlikely to do anything overt and reckless openly in the timebeing although they are continuing to supply and fund the illegal terroristic regime in Kiev and their “Praetorian” or “Republican Guards” of thugs, murderers and killers. In fact, it has already planned for the Christmas bonuses of its wealthy. Yes, the stock markets in Wall Street and Chicago are due for a major reverse by beginning of next year. But, not before. Nothing must undermine and subvert Mrs Yellens’ plan to hold steady Wall Street’s course until end of year. Then, who cares what happens thereafter!
cont. in Part 3/3
Part 3/3
Then, if you are not a diehard “Prepper”, you are already gone. Senators, Congressmen, corporate chiefs, and directors and financial whiz kids, would all have squirreled their money and assets out already to Cayman Islands, New Zealand, etc. by then.
Those who want War – the extremist so-called “Neocons” (Just call them hypocrites, gangsters, thugs, and murderers) would be ready to hop onto their private jets when the missiles are in the air. Who cares what happens to the world, Wall Street, Mainstreet, the US Dollar, Americans and American cities? Argentina, Brazil, New Zealand, Australia … here we come?
So, under this scenario, what are the possibilities for President Putin and Russia to intervene militarily in Ukraine?
Do it, if President Xi and China, and perhaps the rest of the BRICS countries and Iran signal their clear intent to back President Putin and Russia all the way.
For China, such an Alliance would also put Japan and the US in its place. Any hostile moves against Russia in the Ukrainian issue WILL BE be a MISCALCULATION by Washington when a strong Russia-China-and the rest of the world (principally BRICS countries) stand ready to go to WAR AGAINST the calculating “lame-duck-Obama-controlled-by-his-hawkish-Neocon cabinet/advisors/Washington, and its NATO allies.
So, Mr Xi, the fate of the world and China lies IN your hands. President Putin NEEDS you. Russia NEEDS you. The world NEEDS you. This is a moment of truth, and you MUST rise up to the occasion. You are at a tipping point in History. Find the courage to make the Decision to support and ally with President Putin, Russia and the Rest of The World, and you will checkmate if not close the Chess game or Poker game against Obama and Washington/US, to a Draw.
President Putin’s decision depends VERY MUCH on YOU! Do NOT betray the friendship. Please DO that is RIGHT.
Russia is moving assets to Crimea for Victory Day.
Those assets will stay there and will be ready for use after the Dombass has their referendum. Those assets consist of Strategic bombers and sams batteries.
Once the referendum declares independence the new republic can request protection from RF.
Russia can impose a no fly zone on all of Novorussia without much warning or preparation.
The New republic can defend itself against the armed thugs from Kiev with TOWs and rpgs.
The Ukrainian army will for the most part switch allegiance and side with the Donbass independent republic.
NATO and Kiev will screech but nothing more.
…special operation on junta elimination
If you drive back a dog into a corner it is likely it will bite you. In other words, if Russia openly intervenes militarily in Ukraine, the mad dog=US will probably do something very rash and irrationnal, and Russia’s reputation will be incessantly attacked and damaged by the aligned presstitutes.
If Russia let the situation evolve, that will give time to the western public opinion to have a better grab on the actual reality, and (maybe) to the western politicians to wake up somehow to a better notion of their interests.
Besides, with a probable crash of the conditions of living in Ukraine due to to the so called “help” of FMI, the Ukrainians themselves would be much more aware of the dishonesty of the people in power in Kiev and more determined to get rid of them and to keep the West the further possible.
Abdnour
An indirect response to your question, Saker, through this very interesting article found in The Moon of Alabama (with comments also worthy of note):
http://www.moonofalabama.org/2014/05/ukraine-us-campaign-stuck-without-russian-intervention-and-german-support.html
Interesting thought experiment and some good answers so far. I’m glad you phrased the question the way you did instead of asking “should Russia invade?”
Here’s my take, for what it’s worth:
1. Russia does nothing. The Ukrainian junta defeats the Easterners with a lot of blood-shed and more atrocities. Ukraine is united and “free.”
Results:
Ukraine becomes a failed state. The present coalition of Jewish oligarchs and anti-semitic neo-nazis cannot hold for long. The ethnic/linguistic split remains a festering sore. Add to this toxic brew European imposed austerity budgets and there is no way to avoid continued unrest and violence.
America declares a victory for “freedom” over the evil empire and Europe is left holding the bag. US-EU relations worsen as even the European elites begin to wonder if the Atlantic Alliance is worth the cost.
In Russia, Putin’s popularity begins to decline as a flood of refugees carrying horror stories with them flood into the cities.
2. Russia invades the Donbass:
Russia quickly defeats the junta’s forces. They do not push on to Kiev.
Results: The US/NATO do not respond militarily. The Ukraine is simply not worth the expense and risk involved. US pushes for real sanctions, but the pragmatic Europeans balk. Rump Ukraine becomes a NATO protectorate like Kosovo or Bosnia. The East becomes either a Russian satellite or a full member of the Russian Federation. Big winner is the US military-industrial complex which can justify huge defence budgets.
As a Serbian, I am puzzled with the behavior of Russia.
The Western sanctions will destroy Russia if she intervenes ?
I do not know about that, but I remember very well how Western sanctions crippled Serbia in 1992.-1995. Still, small, poor Serbia din not back down until we got half of Bosnia, which is today called The Republic of Srpska.
I think Russia should intervene, take all of south-east (that means Odessa, not just east of Dniepr river!!!) and definitely take Kiev.
If Serbia could endure the sanctions for 3 long years, I think Russia which has 20 times bigger population and is infinitely larger in territory and resources can easily survive much longer, specially because she can turn to Iran, China and India. Serbia could not turn to anybody (only the Greeks were helping us during the sanctions period).
So I say it would be definitely better if Russia DOES intervene in Ukraine now! Maybe I am wrong, but that is how I see it.
Greetings from Serbia.
Streets of blood.Putin has to get the finger out and move in.
http://rt.com/news/157240-slavyansk-surrounded-citizens-assault/
i agree with Serbian.
If Russia intervenes militarily between now and the end of May, the US and the Kiev gov’t will simply blow everything out of proportion. They will provide arms and maybe even their own soldiers to the Ukrainian government and things will quickly get out of hand. Can you imagine the hysteria if a US soldier is killed or a US pilot shot down? They would definitely making a “Behind Enemy Lines 3” out of the incident) The west is just waiting for Russia to intervene. They want war. They want Russia to attack, the west will use all its PR might to feed the masses to show that Russia is intent on taking over all of Europe! Now if they do nothing, you are right, nationalists will probably regain control of most of the eastern and southern Ukraine. The Presidential election will go ahead and that Poroshenko or Tymoshenko will get elected. Yes, for sure, the US and West will say it’s all legitimate and that democracy has prevailed and all that crap. (I can just see McCain making a speech in Keiv after the election!) I would prefer that Russia intervene but not in the old fashioned way with air power (“shock and awe”) or thousands of troops crossing the border. I think Putin is smarter than that. I say use covert means, provide arms to the resistance (ethnic Russian or Ukrainian) give them the means to fight back but deny any involvement – although it may seem obvious. I’m sure there is already some of this going on already what with helicopters being shot down and all. This seems like the only option. The Ukrainians (they are all Ukrainians right?) in the south and east have to do the dirty work (with a little help!). Long time ago we could see who supported who by the weapons they used (M16 = US, Ak47=USSR) Now everybody is using one type of AK47 or another.
If Russia intervenes militarily between now and the end of May, the US and the Kiev gov’t will simply blow everything out of proportion. They will provide arms and maybe even their own soldiers to the Ukrainian government and things will quickly get out of hand. Can you imagine the hysteria if a US soldier is killed or a US pilot shot down? They would definitely making a “Behind Enemy Lines 3” out of the incident) The west is just waiting for Russia to intervene. They want war. They want Russia to attack, the west will use all its PR might to feed the masses to show that Russia is intent on taking over all of Europe! Now if they do nothing, you are right, nationalists will probably regain control of most of the eastern and southern Ukraine. The Presidential election will go ahead and that Poroshenko or Tymoshenko will get elected. Yes, for sure, the US and West will say it’s all legitimate and that democracy has prevailed and all that crap. (I can just see McCain making a speech in Keiv after the election!) I would prefer that Russia intervene but not in the old fashioned way with air power (“shock and awe”) or thousands of troops crossing the border. I think Putin is smarter than that. I say use covert means, provide arms to the resistance (ethnic Russian or Ukrainian) give them the means to fight back but deny any involvement – although it may seem obvious. I’m sure there is already some of this going on already what with helicopters being shot down and all. This seems like the only option. The Ukrainians (they are all Ukrainians right?) in the south and east have to do the dirty work (with a little help!). Long time ago we could see who supported who by the weapons they used (M16 = US, Ak47=USSR) Now everybody is using one type of AK47 or another.
A different scenario?
From ZeroHedge:
East Ukraine May Be Officially Independent In Seven Days
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-05-07/next-big-catalyst-east-ukraine-may-be-officially-indepedent-seven-days
Having read all the comments, I’m beginning to think we’re all making a big mistake, and that is leaving out two key players here: the Ukrainian military, and the people themselves.
I think we ought to look at this Ukrainian mess a bit in terms of what happened in Egypt – albeit it’s more accelerated in the Ukraine.
In that scenario, after the elections (but before July because of the planned NATO “exercises”), and with the people thoroughly dissatisfied by the rampaging Right Sector (who will feel empowered), there might be a military coup, with the results we’re seeing in Egypt where the muslim brotherhood is being held to account fro their crimes.
Why should that not be possible in the Ukraine?
And why would it be unthinkable that exactly that is being secretly planned, with help from Russia, by some in the Ukrainian military already?
It looks like the Trade Union fire was just the overture:
4 thousand ultra-right militants brought to Odessa — Russia’s Civic Chamber official
Excerpt:
> Right Sector, fighters of the Dnipr and Kyiv-1 special task force battalions, and ultras of the FC Dnipro have been brought into the city and the overall number of the combatants propping up the Kiev regime exceeds 4,000 there now,” Fyodorov said.
“The most dangerous thing is that local police have handed them the lists of the pro-federation movement activists,” he said. “In addition, we have the information the whole city is blocked by checkpoints and traffic inside is practically paralyzed.”
That does not sound good.
Honk
Dear The Saker,
A complex question which I will try to answer – though there is no right answer and outcomes are unknown!
Ther are two sayings which spring to mind when looking at the Russian Govt. perspective right now:
1) Give them enough rope and they will hang themselves and
2) You reap what you sow
I see the Russian Govt as strategic thinkers who look at history and have learnt lessons. They don’t need WWIII – there are other ways to achieve goals. The USG and EU on the other hand keep playing the same games/rules – they have no strategic thinkers and no ability to think outside the box.
Looking at your question from this viewpoint my initial thoughts are as follows:
A) Russia doesnot intervene and 6 months from now.
My prediction for this scenario – economically things will deteriorate fast; fascists and whomever in power will start turning on each other – this is because they fundementally don’t care about the country just themselves. The general public will have grown more and more disenchanted and protests will grow. There was a survey conducted recently and the news story was on VOR or Itar-Tass today where at least 65% (40+15)of Ukrainians have no problem with federalisation – imagine what that will be in October when pensions are cut; salaries lower; no gas; no freedoms etc. The East and South having to keep rump West functioning and not seeing any increase in their livelihoods. GMO foods, Oligarchs still stealing and plundering the country; The resistance in the East/South will continue throughout this period – even if it has to go underground for a while. The Army fed up of not being paid and fed will trun on the Government too and join the people. Russia turns away from Europe and develops a growing and influential economy elsewhere in the world. The start of the collapse of the petro-dollar may happen during this period and the USG will be exposed. Russia will provide support for East/South through other means during this period. BRICS will become more powerful.
B) What happens if Russia does intervene.
USG/EU/NATO get what they want. More death and destruction and the toll on the Russian economy will happen. High potential for WWIII and Russia will be blamed – mark my words – for it.
Which one do I prefer and why – (A)- because long-term this will lead to the demise of the unipolar world and petro-dollar and will be the start of a multi-polar world. End of UN/IMF/World Bank as they stand and replaced by fairer more equitable organisations not based in the US or on the petro dollar.
At the end of the day all we have as human beings are our free will and humanity – just these two things can achieve immeasurable things.
It is truly awful what is happening but Russia cannot be rash or not look ahead. Intervention now is what the lunatics want.
Rgds,
Veritas
Russia is moving assets to Crimea for Victory Day. These assets consist of air to air fighter jets, ground attack fighter jets, Strategic bombers, transport and attack helicopters, paratroopers and SAM batteries. As Putin will attend, there will be a no-fly zone declared for the celebration. This is a test run.
Those assets will stay there and will be ready for use after the Donbass has their referendum.
Once the referendum supports independence of the new republic it can immediately request protection from RF.
Russia can impose a no fly zone on all of Eastern and Southern Ukraine without much warning or preparation.
The New republic can defend itself against the armor brought by Kiev with anti-tank weapons, rocket propelled grenades, Improvised Explosive Devices installed in culverts. Tanks and APCs have a soft underbelly.
The armor that Kiev brought to the fight has their eastern and southern flanks exposed leading to a virtual encirclement by RF. The Ukrainian army can see that too. For the most part they will refuse to fight and switch allegiance to side with the Donbass independent republic.
NATO and Kiev will screech but can do nothing more as there will be no Russian land invasion. NATO’s Breedlove has recognized this scenario for Russia achieving her objectives without a land invasion. Washington is now threatening an all-out-war of sanctions if Russia recognizes the upcoming independence referendums in South Eastern Ukraine.
If Russia takes no action, things will be exactly as Washington plans/intends with an ever tighter squeeze being placed on Russia. The Ukraine will join NATO, as will Georgia.
My two pence worth is that Russia should go ahead and either
a) Issue an ultimatum to the Ukrainian military to stop actions against its own people and arrest the junta
or
b) Take direct military action or support the federalists with intelligence, air strikes, and armaments and training. It should seriously consider also sending troops directly to Kiev (via a heavily air supported rapid action airborne unit) to arrest the junta and take them back to Moscow for a trial and punishment under Ukrainian law.
Washington is already at (undeclared) war with Russia and is going to do what it’s going to do, no matter what Russia does. It realises that it’s getting weaker daily and Russia and China are getting stronger. Time is not on its side and it seems to have started its active phase now. There seems little value in Russia waiting until it does have NATO troops fully encircling it. It seems from the recent meetings that Merkel is going to do whatever Washington tells her to. To me it seems that the battle lines are already drawn, Washington and its satrap EU vs Russia and China. In a knife fight, it’s not much use letting the enemy have a first free strike.
Russia should also start (possibly via friendlies in the US and a/(some) Delaware company(ies)) supporting the secessionists in the US (e.g. Texas, Colorado, etc.), black and Hispanic movements, survivalists, the Occupy movement … anyone who wants to restore the US to constitutional rule and adherence to international law. The US will certainly try to mobilise it’s Russian fifth column. Russia should also expel the NED, USAID and any other GOs (NGOs they certainly aren’t).
World made a big mistake allowing Nazis to secure power and build up strength in Germany. If the East does not get help you get a militarist nuclear armed Nazi Ukraine which encourages far right neo-fascist groups accross Europe and is an immediate military threat to Russia.
From a neutral point of view (I am an Indian) – I will hope Russia doesn’t intervene militarily in East Ukraine. Russia has already shown its capabilities with respect to Crimea. Russia just needs to wait and watch how Ukraine’s purse is carried (if at all) by NATO and/or EU. Russians are good in producing chess champions, and it is a chess match that is going on right now.
I can not believe this!
Putin has just stabbed pro-Russian activists in s/e Ukraine in the back!?
http://rt.com/news/157404-putin-ukraine-crisis-kiev/
Putin calls for end to Kiev’s military operation, postponing referendum in E. Ukraine
Vladimir Putin also stressed that Russia has withdrawn its troops from Ukrainian border.
“We have been told that our troops on the Ukrainian border are a concern – we have withdrawn them.
Published time: May 07, 2014 13:26
Edited time: May 07, 2014 14:23
Maybe I am not smart enough to see the hidden wisdom in this, but it smells like betrayal!
Greetings from Serbia.
LOL, I am afraid NONE of us, armchair strategists, has the least modicum of actual information about both the means and ends of the large number of players involved in this ugly game to make ANY kind of sensible prediction or comment on known events.
This is just a morbid distraction without even the help of beer and popcorn.
RT: Putin calls for end to Kiev’s military operation, postponing referendum in E. Ukraine
http://rt.com/news/157404-putin-ukraine-crisis-kiev/
I have been reading the various comments about a possible intervention from Russia or not. Based on recent comments from Putin about a withdrawal of the military, as well as a postponement of the referendum on May 11, I do not think that Russia will invade Ukraine. It seems that nobody is going to help the civilian anti-maiden activist and pro-Federalists, and we can expect a new genocide. (Serbia + + +)
It may seem as if Putin (and his army of strategy particles) think that they can win the PR war, thus making it uncomfortable for the U.S. government. It will not happen. Nothing is going to change, and we will most likely “forget” these mass killings when the next mass murder happens in some countries United States (government) want regime change in. The propaganda is massive, and people will not think about things anymore . A good term for this is digital dementia, which refers to how people expect others to devise solutions and choose the best opportunities. (Google + + + +). Critical thinking today just seems to be a nice word akademika use to defend their theses.
There is, however, a chance that western soldiers start to resist their leaders if they understand that the war may come to their home. Then it is also a possibility that former soldiers get enough of the mercenaries and take them out. But Russia can not wait on this to possibly happen.
Conclusion:
Russia should intervene because the turmoil in Ukraine will soon come knocking on the door of Russia, and then it is too late to intervene. NATO has decided a slow war, that does not mean it is not fatal.
The Norwegian.
Unfortunately ,I do believe that Russia should stay out of Ukraine.If Russia was to step into this mess,they would be playing into the hands of the pentagon establishment and we would be into a full blown cold war scenario. The only thing ,in my opinion that keeps the US alive,via it’s corporate governance,is the mfg. of arms etc.
Russia was able to take back the Crimean lands along with their port city.Without a shot fired,to their credit. I do believe that Russia will stay out and they can point the finger at the brutal Kiev junta for their killings.
The West wants Russia to attack, and they want it now.
Therefore Russia shouldn’t attack.
Be peaceful like a dove…
hg
The Kremlin should have sent its tanks in Kiev two days after the American-Nazi coup, asking politely “Excuse me?”!
Now it’s already a big mess, and every calculation can result in a miscalculation.
NATO would have done what they have done anyway: bark loudly!
They have no match on the ground against the Russian Army and they know it.
Apart from a nuclear war, which they cannot win anyway but sometimes they dream they could, Nato is good to massacre helpless at distance, not to face Russians fighting for the people and for the land.
It’s the difference between soldiers and mercenaries. Not one person every ten in Europe would support war against Russia for Ukraine.
PR aftermath? Exactly the same Russia is getting anyway: lie, damned lies and proclamations.
Invade? Damn it!
Do not invade? Damn it, it’s slowly invading!
Try to call them to reason? Damn it, it’s destabilizing!
Putin often is described as a good chess player, but chess have very precise rules. That assumes that the D-Empire follow some sort of rules. It does not! The rules are what better befit it.
When you face someone absolutely determined to kill you, what use is to talk with him. Only one thing he will understand: evidences that he’s not able to kill you.
What use is to discuss, to negotiate with the devil? It’s a pretense ancient as the world for people to think they know better than the devil, but it’s a stupid pretension. Devil always knows better than you!
Is Putin not convinced that all the D-Empire wants is to kill (a Sovereign Christian) Russia?
Then he should change pusher.
Does Putin think that the D-Empire will accept a Sovereign only Russia?
Then he should think again.
The D-Empire will kill her anyway, just to be sure. After all, why refrain from a good killing?
Very simplistic, admittedly.
Veterans Today has an article about this today.
“For Russia the obvious danger lies in the fact that the putschist government in Ukraine, as well as the new government to be elected in May, will comply with every wish of the West in order to secure the credits necessary for its survival.
In all probability it will try to join NATO. It would be suicidal for Russia to allow this because enemy rockets would then be stationed along its southern border.
In a Russian language broadcast of Israeli TV that is available on the Internet, a spokesman for Mosaad has predicted that Putin will occupy the entire Ukraine, not in order to annex it, but to install a government that will follow a course that is friendly toward Russia.”
http://www.veteranstoday.com/2014/05/06/ukraine-situation-report-jochen-furst/
I hope at least Russia provide plenty of weapons to the opposition of the Kiev nazist junta.
I hope China will sign an Alliance Treaty with Russia when President visits Beijing in May or June. That will be a warning to Washington. You will miscalculate when you next initiate some hostile or aggressive moves that you think will not create a forceful response. I look forward to an Alliance Treaty among the BRICS members and Iran, Syria, and North Korea, and even with the African Union countries to balance off the warmongering US superpower and its subordinate vassal NATO member countries. You don’t need the SCO as a counter balance to NATO. An Alliance Treaty is sufficient although there will need to be frequent military drills and exercises to ready these countries for a co-ordinated war effort in thwarting the imperialistic NATO countries.
Judo.
Putin blamed right-wing groups, called on the East to postpone May 11 federalization referenda (to which they appear to have agreed), and said Russia is pulling back its troops from the Ukraine border. Burkhalter and the OSCE will develop a roadmap in the next couple of hours with “concrete steps” on four major points, a ceasefire, the de-escalation of tensions, dialogue and elections.
Burkhalter at this point appears to be a genuine partner for peace; hopefully he will remain so. In any case, this was an exceedingly deft move, imo. It de-escalates plus shows all conspirators, RS thugs right on up to Obama, for what they are, plus gives Euro-bureaucrats and maybe even us a way to back down. If we’re smart enough, we’ll let him save us again, just like in Syria.
http://rt.com/news/157404-putin-ukraine-crisis-kiev/
My $0.02 from someone who really doesn’t know the Ukraine well enough but has an opinion anyway is making it up as he goes along:
If Russia does not intervene, the nationalists will attempt to ethnically cleanse as much of Ukraine as they can of Russian speakers. I personally don’t know how strong the ability is of the Russian speakers to resist this process without Russian intervention. Perhaps a significant number of Ukrainian military recruits will simply disobey orders but overall, life will become ever more miserable for the Russian speaking population. So my predication for no Russian intervention is ethnic cleansing of Russian speakers in most of Ukraine and an Israeli style “make them miserable so they leave” strangulation in the areas that resist. Eastern Ukraine will become a massive forward operating base for the AngloZionists but the AngloZionists will also own an economic basket case with no gas for winter. Since The Empire doesn’t give a wet fart for the people of any country it overruns I think they will occupy and set up bases of various sorts (clandestine or not) and missile shields as far East as they can.
If Russia does intervene, I think the Ukrainian state is weak enough where the Russians can halt ethnic cleansing, at least in the East. I am almost always against military intervention, even to attempt to halt ethnic cleansing, as it generally makes the atrocities even worse if the state doing the cleansing has any kind of power left at all. In the case of the Ukraine however, I don’t think the state could muster the forces to stop Russia doing anything she wants in the East. Western Ukraine however will most probably be emptied of Russian speakers. Russia will have a real military and PR problem of being seen as an occupier by the West (though most of the rest of the world will cheer Putin on and Russia will probably not face a particularly hostile occupation). The Empire will entrench itself in Cold War 2.0 with hot air and Pentagon pork flowing at record levels. Russia will have kept the boundaries of The Empire back but will inherit a huge problem that will take resources better spent elsewhere.
It’s a lose-lose situation and it’s a tough call which is “better”. However, the ethnic cleansing of Russian speakers and NATO expanding to the East is unacceptable so I’m sadly going to have to go with intervention IF Russia can do it in a way where she whacks the critical nationalist leaders and trains the locals on how to defend themselves against The Empire.
I liked very much Where-wolf’s story of the Chinese solution – here’s maybe an addendum of my own.
When my oldest son was a toddler, my husband took him for his first visit to a dentist – not just any dentist but advertised as a children’s dentist. Without any forewarning to father or son, the dentist promptly extracted the little boy’s front baby teeth. He came home sporting a bloody gap where the perfectly fine little teeth had been.
Horrified I asked “What on earth was the reason he gave for this?” My husband replied, “He said they were going to come out eventually anyway; he was just getting the process going.”
We never went back to that dentist. And it took a long time before my son trusted dentists again.
Found another nice one
Patience ensures victory
Ali ibn Abu Talib (AS)
Mindfriedo
Dear The Saker,
Some good news today:
http://voiceofrussia.com/news/
1) Gubarev has been freed and
2) Putin has backed Merkel on a round table discussion direct between Kiev Admin and the South East admin. That’s the way to do it – let them talk direct not some FM’s in Geneva.
In other news they are trying to postpone referendum and they have now totally cut off water to Crimea from North Crimean Channel – I am sure that goes against Human Rights of Crimeans……and German businesses are now being affected…..
Could this be a sign the EU may be pushing back a bit and not following US?
Rgds,
Veritas
I’d rather Russia did not intervene directly. As happened with Syria, now again it is important for the rest to be reminded that there are leaders who do not solve everything through military force.
At the same time, I trust that the south east regions will keep moving toward splitting from Kiev. And I hope Russia will support them all along. Using cunning and statesmanship.
In any case, sooner or later, the Nazi-Fascist must pay for what
they have done and are still doing.
Richard
Russia should choose a middle path between doing nothing and an overt military intervention. Russia should arm the federalists so they can resist a Nulandistani invasion. Also, Russian covert forces should do what is necessary to prevent more massacres from occurring.
Time is on Russia’s side. The Empire has no clothes. The key task is helping everyone in the world see that.
If Russia takes no action, things will be exactly as Washington plans/intends with an ever tighter squeeze being placed on Russia. The Ukraine will join NATO, as will Georgia.
My two pence worth is that Russia should go ahead and either
a) Issue an ultimatum to the Ukrainian military to stop actions against its own people and arrest the junta
or
b) Take direct military action or support the federalists with intelligence, air strikes, and armaments and training. It should seriously consider also sending troops directly to Kiev (via a heavily air supported rapid action airborne unit) to arrest the junta and take them back to Moscow for a trial and punishment under Ukrainian law.
Washington is already at (undeclared) war with Russia and is going to do what it’s going to do, no matter what Russia does. It realises that it’s getting weaker daily and Russia and China are getting stronger. Time is not on its side and it seems to have started its active phase now. There seems little value in Russia waiting until it does have NATO troops fully encircling it. It seems from the recent meetings that Merkel is going to do whatever Washington tells her to. To me it seems that the battle lines are already drawn, Washington and its satrap EU vs Russia and China. In a knife fight, it’s not much use letting the enemy have a first free strike.
Russia should also start (possibly via friendlies in the US and a/(some) Delaware company(ies)) supporting the secessionists in the US (e.g. Texas, Colorado, etc.), black and Hispanic movements, survivalists, the Occupy movement … anyone who wants to restore the US to constitutional rule and adherence to international law. The US will certainly try to mobilise it’s Russian fifth column. Russia should also expel the NED, USAID and any other GOs (NGOs they certainly aren’t).
Saker, is this true?
Sniper, who shot ppl in #Euromaidan, later took part in terrorism acts in #Slaviansk, worked for Moscow Patriarch of Ukraine Orthodox church
lennutrajektoor @lennutrajektoor 6 minutes ago
What does it mean?
3 questions
#1 What happens from here to October if Russia does not intervene.
#2 What happens if it does.
#3 Which is preferable.
My answers:
#1 – Ukraine “elects” Poroshenko who is completely under the thumb of the US/Nato and to a lesser degree (as in – as far as it doesn’t contradict US desires) under the thumb of the EU. Without any Russian assistance the seperatists in the South and East might fight for a while but will then melt away and hide because they will be outgunned. There will probably be a full on chase on any seperatists by security services which will be increasingly staffed by Right Sector thugs who will be happy to carry this out.
Meanwhile the economy will grind to a halt. Exports to Russia will plummet, or Russia might even stop them completely, and Russian gas will not be subsidized and might stop completely also. The economy will be on respiratory aid from loans from the EU/US/IMF if it functions at all.
People will be dissatisfied and the regime will answer by blaming Russia, blaming russian agents and increasing the repression against those who voice critisism.
When temperatures drop and there’s no gas for heating a very cold winter will await the people of Kiev.
Crimea, Crimea will be firmly within Russia and some, many, Ukrainians will start to wonder whether they backed the right horse.
In the end not much will havvee been solved and the whole process might well have to be repeated again.
#2 – If Russia does intervene there will be a hell of a reaction. The western media and diplomatic corps will go ballistic.
The problem for Russia in this scenario is where does she draw the line? Which is also why this question is so hard to answer. I’ll divide this into #2a and #2b.
#2a – There won’t be a Nato attack. There will be a “diplomatic solution” where Russia will have to retreat in exchange for a more federal solution in what is now Ukraine, or a partitioning of the country. Russia will back down but Russia will keep Crimea and she will get a Ukraine she can live with going forward.
#2b – Or Russia will become an occupier and then a insurgency will be created against her with the full overt political backing of the west; and the full covert military backing of Nato. The aim will be to bleed Russia in the Ukraine just like the Soviet Union was bled in Afghanistan. We will have a de facto cold war part two (we have already but it will be out in the open and ramped up).
3 – My choice among the scenarios above:
Best: 2a
Second best: 1
Worst: 2b
Which means I have no bloody idea about whether it’s better or not if Russia intervenes because it depends on how that’d play out.
Russia doesn’t need to intervene. They just need to adopt a similar stance as they did in Syria and Lybia and Venezuela… Time is on their side. A chaotic Ukraine will be a huge liability for the US and Europe which are both already in free fall economically and socially. Ukraine is simply not manageable considering the lack of means.
In Ukraine:
IMF plan means austerity, collapase of industry/mines in the East. Ukraine tears apart from the inside once people feel the real pain and get deceived again.
Worldwide:
Why the West wants direct confrontation? In order to be able to reset the system, write off debt an escape demise.
Should the West be served a pretext on a golden plate? No
West won’t stop stirring trouble all over the planet though, more and more desperately, more and more frantically and mainly more and more visibly to the whole world.
Clock is ticking down and social unrest will blow off in the West once the reality of the so far hidden bankruptcy cannot be hidden anymore.
The West tears apart from the inside as well. Just as the USSR did.
World is reshaping slowly all by itself, inertia will do its work. Russia should not speed things up. The best thing they can do is pursuing their policy of setting up new alliances with the Other World.
Together they will make the planet a better place to live though the path to it will be a bumpy one.
Chinese astrology decribe the year of the wood horse what we are in right now, that the first half of the year is going to be extremely dramatic and the another half of the year will be in the mode of the exposure of the past lies followed up by the cleaning process. Lets hope it will be the case in our troubled history.
I do agree with many of the above mentioned posts, but I will try post my vision coming from the latest developments of the situation in Ukraine.
1/ Putin is not going to intervene and don’t be upset with his decision, he and his team exactly know that the West is provoking him just to start the WWIII. It is not going to happen, he has a very intelligent, smart and patient people around him. Even another horrible action is already set in the plan Ukraian people has learned their lesson that these fascist are the mass murderers and because of this, they will take their power into their hands , they are going to built up their own small protection army, Western Europe behind the back of the NATO puppets are going to help Ukraine because they are afraid of the WWIII.
Because of the West MSM tried to stop the information flow and the Facebook did the service, people around the world woke to the shock what happened to the innocent Ukraians. Investigation around the world was launched and by the facial recognition technology and by the use of another technologies it will be exposed to the world who is behind these massacres.
2/ Election is going to be disrupted and it is NOT going to be recognized by the world because Germans ar already fear from the WWIII they don’t want to have a war at all and none of the rest of the Western Europe. The immigration exodus from Ukraine is already in a full swing not just towards the East, and the Western Europe can’t deal with this situation already. In former Eastern Europe the uneployment is incredibly high.
3/Western Europe leaders will finally recognize that they were pushed into the trap and their economy is defintelly threatened.
It will be an emergency meeting for all of the leaders of the world where the evidence who is behind the curtain and pulling the strings will be exposed in full picture
4/ China,Russia,India,and rest of the countries who are already exchanging goods base on the gold coverage will shut down the dolar and the new financial system will be established
5/ Because of the exposure of the Empire, Ukraians fascist who were fighting their own Slavic brothers are going to kill their own government as a revange for the conditions what they have prepared for them
6/ Russia will introduce the new technologies like http://www.keshefoundation.org/ and the oil warmongers will have no choice just to put down the pen and resign.But before this will happen for sure they do have something for us to horrify us as Saker has mentioned many times that if they can’t have what they want they will put everything on fire.
I’m sure China,Russia and rest of the countries are already know what is going to be the last message from the empire and they are prepared very well.
It looks like we are in the final stage because simultaneously so many atrocities are going on right now around the world. These are the last revenge style threats before the final exposure of the biggest financial fraud was made by the small group of absoltelly corupted and psychopathic thugs. There are the statistics made by the professional economist that it is impossible to own to such an amount the money what the bankers claim to lend to all of the countries around the world not to mention the visa fraud. These are just a fictional numbers made by the computer and now the Empire can’t allow to Russia become an Empire or just about not to let Russia get back to their feet finally.
7/ It looks like it will be a mess for another 4-6 months and it is going to be over. Here is some link form the US perspective
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x_FbVQdS_r4
I really hope after this period of time the sunshine will start to shine for everyone around this beautiful earth
What Should Russia Do?
This is a terrifying question because the lives of ethnic Russians living in the Ukraine could be affected. It’s like a game of chess but with dire consequences if the wrong moves are made. I tread lightly.
To start, I am against the use of military power unless absolutely necessary. War is destructive to lives and property and throughout world history it’s always the innocent who are killed the most. The reins of the war horse must be held tightly in control and not unleashed until all other options have been explored.
Here is one idea.
There are approximately 8 million Russians who practice the Christian faith, many of which live in the eastern part of the Ukraine. The Russian Federation could erect temporary structures to house church bells along the border and let the bells ring loudly on Sunday so the people across the border can see and hear them. The Orthodox church could hold services with high ranking officials in attendance (Putin perhaps?) and with choirs singing out in the open at the border to let the faithful worship. The press (RT, Voice of Russia, etc.) could record the sight of humanity separated by a physical border but united in their spiritual faith. Through an act of peace, it would show the world the Russian Federation is sensitive to the plight of their brethren held captive by the puppet regime in Kiev.
It is not by any means a solution but it does delay hostilities and gives pause to find other diplomatic ways to allow the Russian people living in the Ukraine to chose how they wish to be governed.
Quite a few insightful and thought provoking comments here.
What the world will look like in six months if Russia does nothing? I’d say the existential threat to Russia becomes even more serious, perhaps terminally
so. Russia *cannot* “do nothing”. We are now in the endgame which started with
Kosovo. Hopefully, Russia has used the intervening period to be prepared for
this moment in history. It is very important for Russia to assume that it is
really in very grave danger: this is more like 1942 than 1944.
I fear there has been a Coup d’Etat in the West by Zionists, who along with
control of the entire traditional Western media apparatus, now even control
the US nuclear arsenal (is it a coincidence that General “Jack” Weinstein was carefully put in charge of the US nuclear deterrent, using numerous purges within the US military to remove those who might object or sound the alarms?).
One shouldn’t blame Obama very much as he is just a hired teleprompter reader.
Great gig if you can get it – lots of fringe benefits. Only downside for Obama
is that he will be the one who allowed armaggedon to occur. Since he is likely
a gay sociopath, I suspect he doesn’t give a damn.
I’ve always assumed that the true goal of the Zionists is a New World Order where they are in control, but I have been unable to picture either the Chinese or the Russians ever acquiesing to that goal. So perhaps a nuclear war has always been part of the equation, to cut down the world population, so the Zionists can start from scratch, etc. If so, Russia needs to quietly let the
Zionists know that if events spiral out of control enough to the point of a nuclear war, Zionists will be the very first target of a Russian nuclear
strike: sort of a Samson option in reverse.
As adversaries, Zionists are brilliantly smart but insane, sociopathic, and
capable of great evil to achieve their goals. Their weakness is arrogance and
“chutzpah” run amok which can lead them into reckless mistakes. Was the Zionist
Coup in Ukraine proceeding on its original timetable, or was it triggered
prematurely due to Putin’s resistance in Syria? I don’t know – if the later,
then it probably *was* a mistake and that mistake can be exploited to change
the outcome of the game.
What is happening with the West and Russia in the Ukraine is very much like a
dance. The problem for Russia is that the West is leading the dance, hence so
far all Russia has done is to react to the West’s moves. Even though Russia has in my opinion moved brilliantly to what has taken place, they are still
allowing the Zionists to set the pace. Russia needs to start pressuring
asymetrically where the West is weakest (the Saudi Arabian royalty comes to
mind for some reason).
I believe Russia must be genuinely ready and willing to formally intervene
militarily in Ukraine to bring order, but at the same time needs to avoid
doing so as long as is possible. Not withstanding If the Zionists are those
who planned the financial crisis since 2007, the house of cards is starting
to wobble and if Russia can hold out long enough, the West’s ability to sustain
its Military adventures and prop up numerous failed states economically at the
same time will start to falter. They may need a push or two economically to
speed up the process.
In any event, an actual “invasion” would show a great lack of imagination, as there are many, many tools and actions, from support for the partisans in eastern Ukraine to more support of the Iranians and Syrians, that Russia can
take before being lead to the necesity of overtly intervening in Ukraine.
These actions may be able to change the calculus and importantly, the timing of
what the West is trying to do, and might save the world from a really bleak,
terrible future…
And to all those predicting gloom and doom and WWIII: the yankees will NOT commit national and world suicide because of Ukraine. That’s a complete lunacy.
OK Saker, what’s the answer?
@Mohamed
“West is bankrupt. They don’t have the money for an another war. Who will finance their war China/Russia?”
Sure they have money for war. First of all thy have the weaponry already and the kids to weild them are essentilly free. Second they will have benkers becking them churning out “money” in the form of paper bills that will be readily accepted. For those paper bills they will later on get a stake in the very real commodities of the Ukraine, plus interest payments going on for decades.
You don’t have to be rich to start a war. You just have to have the bankers backing.
This will be the script what the Russia,China,India,Brazil and so on will do to the Empire
What is enough is enough
http://www.flixxy.com/bear-animal-nature-film.htm
I believe Russia will have to make it’s move before American troops arrive in Ukraine in July for joint maneuvers with the Ukrainian military. I don’t think the Americans will leave. In the meantime the situation will deteriorate to an such extent that Russia will be justified in making a unilateral decision –given the American refusal to negotiate– to send in peace keepers.
I don’t think Putin gives a damn about US propaganda and it plays no role in his decision making process. I believe he wants to see to what extent the general population in East Ukraine is willing to resist the fascists and he will make his move when he thinks people really, desperately want a Russian intervention.
I am wondering when the Federalists will start using unconventional warfare tactics, IEDs and ambushes on the Nazi paramilitaries, as opposed to only building street barricades and occupying buildings for propaganda purposes. If their manpower is truly increasing these tactics will become evident soon enough.
Sarastro says:
The heart of the matter in 4GW according to John Boyd is grand strategy, i.e.:
a) moral level of war: who gets the moral high ground?
b) alliances: who gets allied, formally and informally, with more centers of order, inside and outside his nation?
c) what’s your final objective?
Let’s see.
1) Russian Army does not enter Ukraine. Kiev, mercenaries and Pravy Sektor provoke civil war, and go on with ethnic cleansing.
Russia appears weak, Putin faces internal problems, maybe reversal
2) Russian Army enters Ukraine. Military operations in urban environment, and in such a confuse situation, are slow and costly in civilian lives. Kiev mercenaries and Pravy Sektor step up the violences, maybe staging some false flag massacre. Russia appears cruel, Putin gets approval at home, divided consensus in Ukraine, is demonized abroad (esp. in UE).
That’s the devil alternative in which Western powers try to confine Russia.
Is there a way out?
Maybe:
A) Politically and diplomatically, it would be a step of foremost importance if Putin could get a joint appeal for peace and reconciliation – first of all, a ceasefire – in Ukraine by both Orthodox and Catholic Churches (by the Pope and the Patriarch of Costantinople). Pope Francis has yet made many steps towards reconciliation with the Orthodox Church.
B) Militarily, Russia could:
1) infiltrate more special forces, organization of russian speaking defence forces, while demoralizing & buying out (by moral and/or economic means) the Ukrainian Army; try to decrease the level of violence by threatening the worst extremists (kill some of the most dangerous people in government and militia, tell the others “stop or else…”)
2) maybe, revive the old antifascist myth (taking it away from the USA) and organize an International Brigade “for saving peace and democracy against Fascism”, just like in Spanish Civil War.
3) If nothing of the above is enough, go on with a full military intervention.
For Russia to escape the “devil’s alternative”, its stated objective must be “let’s save peace, democracy, the rule of law in Ukraine and in Europe against the menace of Imperialism and Fascism”.
Ukrainian authorities restore control over Mariupol – acting Interior Minister
Mariupol has been completely unblocked, Ukrainian acting Interior Minister Arsen Avakov said.
“The city is under the authorities’ control,” the Ukrainian Interior Ministry website quoted Avakov as saying on Wednesday.
“During the operation servicemen of the Azov special purpose battalion of the Ukrainian Interior Ministry and 72nd infantry brigade of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry distinguished themselves. Mariupol is completely unblocked, traffic on streets and access to all administrative buildings is open,” Avakov said.
The building of the Mariupol city council has been freed from anti-Maidan activists, the Ukrainian special services said in the morning, Interfax reports.
Mariupol city council under control of gov’t forces – Ukrainian media
The local self-defense forces were pushed out of the building of the Mariupol city council in the Donetsk region in the early hours of Wednesday, Channel Five television reports, according to Interfax.
The media have reported that the the Mariupol voluntary people’s guards have taken control of the building.
Dozens of tires were burned in the center of Mariupol, and sporadic shooting was heard in different parts of the city all night, they said.
Activists who were inside the city council building also blocked some central streets to traffic. In particular, the central street, Lenin Avenue, was blocked by vehicles on both sides, and then tires and an electric bus were set on fire.
As of Wednesday morning, the central part of the city was reopened to traffic.
VOR@ 16.30hrs
PS- why are Strelkov and his separatists using the women and children as human shields. Isn’t that a purposeful and unnecessary placement of the population at risk for political purposes? In the RT videos the resistance looks well equipped with anti- tank rockets and grenade launchers, why needlessly endanger the captive civilian population in this struggle? Does no one else object to this tactic or am I being too overly concerned?
In my opinion the best Russia can do: Going in and annex all of Ukrain, to ‘stop’ civil war and prevent other nations to enter the country.
What Russia needs most is a substantional bufferzone and control over Black Sea coasline and Odessa harbour.
A vague line somewhere in the middle of Ukraine leaves Russia probable more vunerable as it is yet.
US/EU will do nothing.
Remember Georgia when Putin said to the US:’One US missile and we nuke Tiblisi.
By now, we have become VERY interested in your evaluation of the solutions suggested.
A majority agrees for covert support for east and south.
I still think the nazis have to be wiped out as soon as possible, otherwise they will become a cancer like the wahabi/ salafi foot soldiers.
One off topic question: cursing/ swearing. Not the greatest indicator of civilization of course… But why the $%%%#@@@*()^% hell does mr Putin make this illegal???
We think the most important thing now is to launch direct dialogue, genuine, full-fledged dialogue between the Kiev authorities and representatives of southeast Ukraine. This dialogue could give people from southeast Ukraine the chance to see that their lawful rights in Ukraine really will be guaranteed.
In this context, we appeal too, to representatives of southeast Ukraine and supporters of federalisation to hold off the referendum scheduled for May 11, in order to give this dialogue the conditions it needs to have a chance.
http://eng.kremlin.ru/transcripts/7143
“In other words – would a Russian military intervention make things as seen six months down the road better or worse?”
Dear Saker,
That would depend on the type of intervention. If Russia decides to hold a full scale invasion, it would largely legitimize the Western media campaign against Russia, and lose Putin local Ukrainian support in some areas, as well as provide plenty of pretext for NATO. If Russia strikes, it should strike hard, fast, and take out the command center of the Ukrainian resistance. It should be extremely targeted strikes, with special operations forces and with precision execution. In other words, the Russian military should avoid a conventional military attack at all costs. Anyway, I doubt the Right Sector thugs would be able to resist any sort of military intervention. An invasion of that scale would not be necessary. The Ukrainian army would be another question, but it is already evident that they are at the very least hesitant to fight. Russian troops should also avoid staying in Ukraine longer than needed to conduct the operation and subsequent “cleanup” ops, afterwards an immediate retreat and elections should be held or referendums.
I do feel however, your question assumes that the junta will succeed in suppressing the Eastern and Southern regions. With the extensive public outlash and media coverage of the Odessa massacre, I don’t think the populace of East/South Ukraine would be so susceptible to danger. They will know what to look for — Saint George Ribbons with identifying wrist bands, anything to trick people into thinking they are Russian sympathizers, police being placated, the appearance of football “ultras.” I also assume that security and reconnaissance has been much improved in all pro-federalization regions. Massacres, while horrible, at this small scale do not cause a harm of killing the population of the resistance on a genocidal scale. This means that it effectively causes negligible physical harm to the East/Ukraine populations, only that they would be more susceptible to anti-Kiev sentiment and become more validated to more and more people. In this way, I don’t think the terror-inspired massacres are at all effective for the junta, rather, they achieve the opposite of what they are trying to by increasing support for opposition interests. Also, the Right-Sector thugs seem to be largely the instigator of much of the violence. They are unable to perform a serious military operation, and only can resort to terror, kidnappings, massacres, and the like. This will not be enough to topple the resistance, and in fact will only legitimize it. The longer Putin delays a military attack, the more and more legitimized the pro-federalization forces will be. Don’t forget that Russia is about to announce two “Holy grail” deals involving much oil and gas between India and China, potentially some more deals with Iran as well. In 6 months the dollar may predictably slide in response to these changes and the implementation of the Russian national currency payment system. The existence of Crimea into a special economic zone, the reported Chinese investments into the area, and the continued economic liberalization policies, and the subsequent rise of Crimea’s economic status may be a crippling blow to the junta’s hold on power. How will they continue paying their thugs? Don’t forget, Ukraine is essentially broke. Continued political pressure in Ukraine, geopolitical victories in Eurasia, and economic bondage (vis-a-vis the EU, China, Eurasia, everyone… integrating against the US sphere of influence) of the fruitful kind will eventually drive not only Eastern and Southern Ukraine, but the EU as well to capitulate to Russian interests in favor of American ones. Elections are to be held in the EU soon. It itself is about to fall apart.
Here one Anonymous commenter says “Russia is moving assets to Crimea for Victory Day. Those assets will stay there and will be ready for use after the Dombass has their referendum. Those assets consist of Strategic bombers and sams batteries.” I got an even more ample version of this from the same commenter (I assume) on MoA: “Russia is moving assets to Crimea for Victory Day. These assets consist of air to air fighter jets, ground attack fighter jets, Strategic bombers, transport and attack helicopters, paratroopers and SAM batteries.” We really need sources for this. I suppose there is no such thing as an empty show of force, when you think about it.
If we sometimes wondered how Germany could fall Nazism: here is the answer.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bAspe8EGOKg
Ukraine in 2014: Ukraine Crisis Today Democracy caught on camera this will nev
I hope Russia now have fast this facists can attack Russia.
Russia, from a humanitarian standpoint, should intervene, but from a long-term solution standpoint, should defend its Western borders (allowing refugees to enter, of course), and turn its vast attention to the south and the east, and, most importantly, inward. The West is in free-fall, and it should get out of the way, as best it can.
Confronting the West militarily will merely entangle itself in this Western demise.
Russia, from a humanitarian standpoint, should intervene, but from a long-term solution standpoint, should defend its Western borders (allowing refugees to enter, of course), and turn its vast attention to the south and the east, and, most importantly, inward. The West is in free-fall, and it should get out of the way, as best it can.
Confronting the West militarily will merely entangle itself in this Western demise.
IF Russia doesn’t intervene…
Well, in the coming weeks, I expect the massacres to continue and even get worse, at the covert goading of the US and EU. The new Ukrainian government will be elected in a few weeks’ time, and will seek to gain legitimacy in the eyes of the Ukrainian people, and the “powers that be” that put it there. I expect that it will “invite” NATO forces onto Ukrainian territory, to better train and equip the Ukrainian armed forces and assist with security in the country (June timeframe). NATO will assist its new “allies” since peace and security are always awesome.
With NATO troops on the ground, not much will change, and things might get worse. NATO will train troops and spec-ops in Ukraine, and the (loyal) troops and Right Sector will really massacre the Russians and their sympathizers in eastern Ukraine. Russia will not be able to intervene militarily at this point, since to do so would put their troops onto de-facto NATO controlled land, which could bring about bad things very quickly. As the massacres continue, they will be recorded and shown to Russians, who will see that their President looks like a control freak who cannot protect the Russian people. The 5th column will get stronger, and Putin’s popularity will decline dramatically by August-September. By October, Ukraine will be a quiet police state firmly under NATO’s control, and Russia’s inner political circles will start unravelling.
Key thing to look at to judge the success/failure of the 5th column would probably be Putin’s popularity polls, and whether disillusionment is breaking out on Russian websites.
HOWEVER, if Russia does intervene between now and the end of May…
Overnight most of eastern Ukraine will be “liberated”, and hopefully some provision will be made for Russian sympathizers to join the safe haven behind Russian lines. Russia will instantly become World Enemy #1 again, and maybe a wall or fortified border will divide Ukraine, until the western world figures out some other way of dealing with Russia. The Kiev government will probably collapse, or it will be so bankrupt that it will be just a failed state. The US and EU will be seen as impotent and will spew vitriol against Russia. They’ll have either the choice of collapsing on their own, or finding a false flag or other pre tense to end in fire.
I honestly don’t know what will happen if Russia intervenes… when a military force is used en masse, I think that all bets really are off…
Within 6-12 months, it may very well be the case that either Russia or western civilization will be broken, permanently. I prefer the route of Russian intervention. It will put an end to the massacres, and to the morally corroded decayed “western civilization”.
may find this interesting: published May 5 2014 in FP
“How Putin Is Reinventing Warfare”
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2014/05/05/how_putin_is_reinventing_warfare
If Russia does not intervene this will result into a very dangerous situation for the Ukrainian people, especially since rightwing people miss some serious education the result will be highly unpredictable and violent.
So Russia has to intervene.
If Russia intervenes by regular army the west (us) gets what it wants: a new cold war. The only way-out of the economic mess in the us.
Russia for sure has a well trained secret army and this will eliminate a large bunch of the Nazi’s. This will quiet the Ukraine down to an acceptable level. There will be a referendum and elections and much more healthy situation in the country.
Saker,
I am Russian from Ukraine, particularly from Kharkiv, living in US.
If hypothetically imagine first scenario like peaceful or with some violence, it will be the same situation as it was in October, as you imagined already, but i really mean that new oligarchs will do the same as old ones but now having the absolute power. There are not even new oligarchs actually – they are all old ones trying to take the power. Have no idea what advantages the US (and EU) will have though – Ukrainian oligarchs, don’t care about the US. The US assume having the following control over oligarchs. It is a utopia.
The Ukrainian oligarchs don’t care about people as well, so, a new maidan will be just postponed.
The second scenario is most likely to happen. The referendum will take place in the Southeast with NO Russia intervention, of course, and then regardless of the USA and EU recognize new republic as “legitimate” or not, some new phase of Ukrainian history will begin. They (Southeast) may ask Russia for help, and they most likely will including military one. So, they will start their own development in either way – as a part of Ukraine, independently, or even as a part of Russia.
And the US with EU will have no advantage in this case either.
So, in any case the US and EU already lost with their “strategy”.
Thanks!
Russia does nothing:
A new Ukrainian ‘president’ gets elected.
The new Ukraine government is recognized by US, EU and some other countries.
The new Ukraine government enters into negotations with IMF, US and EU for loans.
Nuland/Kagan (PNAC) will make sure membership of NATO is one of the conditions.
Negotations go very fast (weeks not months).
Kiev Rada accepts bailout package including NATO membership.
NATO countries accept Ukraine as a new member despite Russian objections.
Ukraine is now in NATO.
Russia can no longer intervene, because that would automatically mean war with all of NATO.
US/NATO naval base in Odessa.
US/NATO “missile shields” in western or central Ukraine.
US/NATO “exercises” in eastern Ukraine, staging for invasion of Russia proper.
Greater poverty all over Ukraine.
Forced Ukrainisation of SE Ukraine.
Great resentment in SE Ukraine.
More separatist movements in SE Ukraine.
Extremely violent repression of separatists by Ukraine/Bandera forces.
Many civilian casualties.
Russian still does nothing:
Scenario is repeated in Georgia and central Asian republics.
Russia is no longer seen as a geopolitical force.
China cuts a deal with US/Zion empire.
Destabilisation of autonomous republics of Russian Federation.
Color revolution within Russia.
Global enslavement.
OR: Russia does intervene, but only
after Ukraine becomes part of NATO:
NATO declares war on Russia.
Conventional exchange of fire.
Negotiations.
Surprise nuclear first strike by US.
Second strike on US by Russia and China.
Global famine, disease and death.
Hi Saker I found it on Slovak web (translated from Russian): http://www.chelemendik.sk/Na_Ukraine_sa_moze_objavit_nova_nikym_neocakavana_sila_779976855.html
Oracle 911
Can I just say I’ve seen more good analysis in this thread than I’ve seen in the last ten years in Ziocon media.
This blog could replace 5 floors of highly paid foreign analysts.
To Nora
Someone is trying to discredit the Moscow Patriarch
Not Saker.