Today, I want to ask you a simply question.
Let us assume that Russia does not intervene and that, with time and effort, the nationalists regain control of most of the eastern and southern Ukraine. Let is further assume that the referendum wanted by the Russian-speakers is either not held or ignored, while the Presidential election goes ahead and that Poroshenko or Tymoshenko get’s “kind of elected” in a farcical election which, however, the USA and its EU protectorate will immediately recognize as “legitimate”.
What will happen after that?
Say in June? And July. In August and then in September. Let’s even try to imagine what the Ukraine will look like in October. So 6 months from now.
Now, once you have made your prediction first, then ask yourself what would happen in Russia does intervene between now and the end of May.
Then compare the two outcomes and tell me which one you prefer and why.
In other words – would a Russian military intervention make things as seen six months down the road better or worse?
I am curious as to what each of you will reply :-)
Many thanks and kind regards to all,
The Saker
[PS: I think I have beat the flu (finally!). Should be back to normal by tomorrow.]
With no intervention, Putin is repeating the mistake of Yanukovich. The junta and NATO will take the control all over the Ukraine.
If Russia will intervene, it will probably lead to WWIII.
Nevertheless, being at Putin’s place, I would probably risk the world war. Russia has much better chances to survive it somehow than US and the European members of NATO. In addition to this, giving up in Ukraine Russia will not prevent the WWIII, it will happen anyway, but under much worse conditions. Russia must fight if she wants to survive.
European Parliament deputy from Latvia Tatyana Zhdanok (Tatjana Ždanoka) has requested fellow MPs to support her demand that the European Commission (EC) includes the radical movement Right Sector in the list of terrorist
http://voiceofrussia.com/news/2014_05_07/Right-Sector-should-be-deemed-terrorists-European-Parliament-deputy-0067/
This is an excellent article. It details sequence of events as they took place in Syria. Parallels can be drawn with Ukraine and how things are not what they seem.
http://rt.com/op-edge/157412-syria-hidden-massacre-2011/
Mindfriedo
http://charly015.blogspot.com/2014/05/imagen-satelite-del-despliegue-de.html
In Russian I think, map shows Missile sites.
Good to hear you’re feeling better:)
Veritas: Yes
The EU is imposing its will, which is a federated Ukraine and bringing Russia into the world order on respectable terms.
This is outraging the neocons, who want to split Russia off from Europe and split Russia up.
The reality is that the world is coming closer together and that the dreams of unipolar hyperpower are not going to be part of that future world.
We will all be better off in that regard, and hat tip to Mrs Merkel for driving this agreement home.
East Ukraine will have autonomy, the IMF will pump money into Ukraine and the money will go to paying the gas bill. The petrodollar is dead. Putin accomplished all of this with less loss of life than a typical day in post-America Iraq. Kudos to him.
Fantasists that thought Putin was going to sacrifice Russia to bring down the New World Order will be disappointed.
Veritas: Yes
The EU is imposing its will, which is a federated Ukraine and bringing Russia into the world order on respectable terms.
This is outraging the neocons, who want to split Russia off from Europe and split Russia up.
The reality is that the world is coming closer together and that the dreams of unipolar hyperpower are not going to be part of that future world.
We will all be better off in that regard, and hat tip to Mrs Merkel for driving this agreement home.
East Ukraine will have autonomy, the IMF will pump money into Ukraine and the money will go to paying the gas bill. The petrodollar is dead. Putin accomplished all of this with less loss of life than a typical day in post-America Iraq. Kudos to him.
Fantasists that thought Putin was going to sacrifice Russia to bring down the New World Order will be disappointed.
Is this true?
http://www.counterpunch.org/2014/05/06/the-crisis-in-ukraine-2/
What Can be Done?
The Crisis in Ukraine
by FLOYD RUDMIN
Tromsø, Norway.FLOYD RUDMIN is Professor of Social & Community Psychology at the University of Tromsø in Norway. He can be reached at frudmin@psyk.uit.no
“
The first fact. The Ukraine has 15 nuclear reactors loaded with a 1000 tons or more of radioactive fuels. The largest nuclear reactor in Europe is on the Dneiper River, a little north of Crimea. Plus, there are the 4 Chernobyl reactors, still leaking radiation, still needing constant attention. A rational world cannot tolerate chaos, or a collapsed economy, or a civil war, or any kind of war, in a region with nuclear reactors. If the power grid fails, if workers are unable or unwilling to show up for their shifts, if there is an act of sabotage, an act of war, if something happens to a nuclear reactor, then the Ukraine, Europe, Russia, and the rest of the world will receive heavy doses of radioactive fallout. There is now no government in Ukraine with the resources to manage a nuclear catastrophe.”
Hope it’s worth more than just two cents!
People are claiming that everything that’s is happening is just a trap for Putin to invade Ukraine, but it may well be slightly different – what if European countries established a kind of pre condition, like Russia invading or attacking – in order to ‘punish’ Russia the way US would like? But it can also be that US and EU are completely pissed by Russian move in Crimea and by the unfazed stance of Russia before sanctions? Sometimes it seems the more blogosphere laughs about sanctions they came with a new package… Like kids would do!
I think that priorities for Russia are as follows:
1rst and foremost : control over Crimea — done!
2nd: preserve reasonable interaction with European countries (that requires contention!)
3rd: prevent harder sanctions that could endanger trade and keep all doors open for Russian participation in international fora;
In order to accomplish that Russia is ready to accept another unfriendly government in Ukraine (remember: it isn’t the first time, and back then hey managed somehow to control Tymoshenko. This time around it may be easier, as this government and the clone that will arise from next elections will hardly last. I’ll add that in the natural order of things even the hardcore fascists will sooner or later accommodate to a minimum of civilized kind of interaction. In fact, fighting Russia today helps them to justify the actual chaos: if Russia moves back they will be utterly incapable of delivering!
But Russia must, has to find a leader strong enough to construct an alternative to thugs in Kiev – and they will need him in a few months from now!
On the side of very negative points I think that:
A- The actual resistance to fascist is in Kiev is candid, unprepared and clearly spontaneous. If it doesn’t get quickly organized and well thought, than they will be smashed and nobody will cry for them in the ‘Western’ world (Let me add this: Russia seems to know very well how regime change works, but she doesn’t know how to win over such a move and even less to manage some kind of regime change on their own.)
B- History tells us that regimens in their final moments are dangerous, unpredictable s and chaotic. If they have everything to loose, postponing its end at the expense of everybody else is just fine!
C- But the most important issue is the fact that the so called ‘West’ still enjoys an enough good image (and they control almost all mass media) that allows them to commit all kinds of crimes, international law violations, war crimes and so on, and still they can depict Russia as the violator . Let me assure you all – the people that decides is completely convinced of that narrative! US spends lots of money in think tanks that analyze every aspects of threats to its interests, every way to appear as the biggest, the better, the most powerful on Earth. Russia has nothing that resemble that, but even so Russia managed to build a so strong position in international affairs and its economic recovery that US knows that it must destroy Russia (and this means Putin, because US personalizes this issue on him!) in order to reign unchallenged
D- We must accept that US is stronger than Russia and has more allied/vassal countries on its side than Russia. Russia didn’t consolidate its economic recovery nor its position in the international affairs (and that may well be the main reason why Putin returned and changed the Constitution. He knows very well that Russia needs more time!)
And from all the above I think that Russia won’t invade Ukraine. Russia will wait for it to rotten and then, and only then, they will push to for greater autonomy and later on they will ‘annex’, with people support, the territory to the East of Dniepre River. Wishful thinking? Ok, but it must be done in a few years from mow.
Ana
PS On RT they just said that a new round of negotiations is being ‘negotiated’…
Hope it’s worth more than just two cents!
People are claiming that everything that’s is happening is just a trap for Putin to invade Ukraine, but it may well be slightly different – what if European countries established a kind of pre condition, like Russia invading or attacking – in order to ‘punish’ Russia the way US would like? But it can also be that US and EU are completely pissed by Russian move in Crimea and by the unfazed stance of Russia before sanctions? Sometimes it seems the more blogosphere laughs about sanctions they came with a new package… Like kids would do!
I think that priorities for Russia are as follows:
1rst and foremost : control over Crimea — done!
2nd: preserve reasonable interaction with European countries (that requires contention!)
3rd: prevent harder sanctions that could endanger trade and keep all doors open for Russian participation in international fora;
In order to accomplish that Russia is ready to accept another unfriendly government in Ukraine (remember: it isn’t the first time, and back then hey managed somehow to control Tymoshenko. This time around it may be easier, as this government and the clone that will arise from next elections will hardly last. I’ll add that in the natural order of things even the hardcore fascists will sooner or later accommodate to a minimum of civilized kind of interaction. In fact, fighting Russia today helps them to justify the actual chaos: if Russia moves back they will be utterly incapable of delivering!
But Russia must, has to find a leader strong enough to construct an alternative to thugs in Kiev – and they will need him in a few months from now!
On the side of very negative points I think that:
A- The actual resistance to fascist is in Kiev is candid, unprepared and clearly spontaneous. If it doesn’t get quickly organized and well thought, than they will be smashed and nobody will cry for them in the ‘Western’ world (Let me add this: Russia seems to know very well how regime change works, but she doesn’t know how to win over such a move and even less to manage some kind of regime change on their own.)
B- History tells us that regimens in their final moments are dangerous, unpredictable s and chaotic. If they have everything to loose, postponing its end at the expense of everybody else is just fine!
C- But the most important issue is the fact that the so called ‘West’ still enjoys an enough good image (and they control almost all mass media) that allows them to commit all kinds of crimes, international law violations, war crimes and so on, and still they can depict Russia as the violator . Let me assure you all – the people that decides is completely convinced of that narrative! US spends lots of money in think tanks that analyze every aspects of threats to its interests, every way to appear as the biggest, the better, the most powerful on Earth. Russia has nothing that resemble that, but even so Russia managed to build a so strong position in international affairs and its economic recovery that US knows that it must destroy Russia (and this means Putin, because US personalizes this issue on him!) in order to reign unchallenged
D- We must accept that US is stronger than Russia and has more allied/vassal countries on its side than Russia. Russia didn’t consolidate its economic recovery nor its position in the international affairs (and that may well be the main reason why Putin returned and changed the Constitution. He knows very well that Russia needs more time!)
And from all the above I think that Russia won’t invade Ukraine. Russia will wait for it to rotten and then, and only then, they will push to for greater autonomy and later on they will ‘annex’, with people support, the territory to the East of Dniepre River. Wishful thinking? Ok, but it must be done in a few years from mow.
Ana
PS On RT they just said that a new round of negotiations is being ‘negotiated’…
OK, it seems that Russia is moving forces back from the Ukraine border. In addition it seems they have suggested to the folks in the east that they delay the referendums and I read that at least one of the leaders has said that they will consider the suggestion very carefully as they respect VV very much.
So, the ground is settled. I assume that your question was posed with knowledge of the matters in my preface.
If elections go ahead on the 25th then there is no chance that they will be representative of the electorate because a large part of the electorate will feel that the election is not representative of their needs and without candidates who have any kind of connection with them. Yanukovych may have been many things but he did stand for a united Ukraine and from what I know of him that was a principled position, not simply an election vote puller.
So any national government will be a lame duck from the outset. It is my expectation that such a government will rapidly fall and after more silliness there will either be a fractured Ukraine or a person will come forward who represents the country at the head of some kind of government of national unity, a short term coalition with the purpose of finding a way to get to where the Russians suggested they should have already been. (I think that the Russians have gotten every step of the political dance spot on thus far.)
It is my opinion that if Russia were to have moved into Ukraine that they would have imposed order rapidly, they would have set up some form of government of national unity, a short term coalition with the purpose of finding a way to get to where the Russians suggested they should have already been. Russia will not remain in occupation of Ukraine a moment longer than is necessary, there is no point in doing so.
The problem is that if Russia were to have invaded then they would pull down all sorts of opprobrium from around the world, the price would not be worthwhile given that Russia REALLY does not any part of Ukraine that it does not already have. And yes, I am certain that Putin, Lavrov, Surkov and the kitchen cabinet are fully aware of the geo-political landscape and will carry on with their activities.
I believe it was Surkov who came up with the idea that war is just a part of the process of ascendancy, of shifting and motivating power. So, what will happen is that Russia will, to the Americans appear to have capitulated, there will be much cocking of snooks at Russia and, quietly and carefully the ground beneath the feet of US deep state will be removed until all that is left is hole. That process may well outlast Putin or myself but I have a sneaky suspicion that Putin et al have been learning from the inscrutable fellows to their south about the long term use of power.
The US want a war with Russia now. No matter what Putin does, they will start it. If they are not given a pretext, they will fabricate one, just as they always do.
The Horror…
Does it really matter for the people what could be the decision made?
What ever happens on geopolitical level, it will be the decision of the 1%.
And,remember that the 1% doesn’t only live in USA…see the way they struggle with sanctions (McCain vs Nuland …. Europe). In the end capital will decide, people will suffer anyway.
The winning nationality is of no importance.
—-
I want to share a nice video in honour of the people who fought fascism in the big motherland war. Showing the forgetting generation. In honour of the veterans still alive in silence.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SjLZ3IcASXY
Victory day is gaining significance.
_____
—–
I read about problems with readability of the “Completely Automated Public Turing test to tell Computers and Humans Apart”….CAPTCHA…
Refresh the CAPTCHA and you will get a very readable number.
_____
—–
Thanks Saker, we might not totally agree on idealogical level but your knowledge makes me see de mist.
Three items in ITAR-TASS:
1. Russia increases oil supplies to China:
http://en.itar-tass.com/economy/730732
2. China opposes US sanctions against Russia “with any pretext” :
http://en.itar-tass.com/ukrainian-crisis-sanctions-and-reactions
3. Iran bids to join CIS multi-nation rail network assembly:
http://en.itar-tass.com/economy/730752
You know, it is still possible for us to learn from this, re-evaluate and refocus, before our entire house of cards tumbles down. We won’t, of course. But it will be interesting to see what happens after the May 25 EU elections: maybe some of their leaders will start listening to their citizens and even if that doesn’t stop us, it might slow us down. That would at least save some innocent lives.
Dearest Saker,
Честное пионерское
Натан
Дубовицкий
Без неба
12 марта 2014 15:34
Писатель Натан Дубовицкий, известный своими романами «Околоноля», «Машинка и Велик» и недавно вышедшей повестью «Дядя Ваня» написал рассказ “Без неба”. Рассказ о пятой мировой войне – первой нелинейной войне, где все воевали против всех. Интерпретаций может быть много – особенно сегодня, когда настроения в обществе уж точно нельзя назвать простыми и двухмерными.
http://www.ruspioner.ru/honest/m/single/4131
What you think about the above? I came across while reading the following article:
“How Putin Is Reinventing Warfare”
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2014/05/05/how_putin_is_reinventing_warfare
Best regards,
Mohamed.
In this edition of Wrye Bread and Circuses —
With Operation Missing Plane winding down, Operation Missing Nigerian School Girls gets underway.
Meanwhile the reality based community has already come to a conclusion…
Putin wins again!
Seriously tho —
Putin needs to let his opponents bleed.
Merkel is onside with the Ziocons. Any de-escalation by the West is calculated to give time for fake elections to install Poroshenko — after which Putin will be portarayed as opposing the democratic will of Ukrainians.
Putin’s decision to ask for the suspension of referendums in the east and pulling back Russian troops from the border is a minor stroke of genius. I was shocked to hear a MSM announcer express relief at the decision. Chalk up another p.r. victory for Putin but like I said: let them bleed
Under no circumstances can Putin let the West get the upper hand by creating the appearance of a legitimate election installing a new government in Kiev. This must be stopped in favour of a full a free election throughout the whole country, not before September.
If he gives in he will be effectively accepting the West’s initial offer to annex east Ukraine, shown in the map below.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/10657256/Ukraine-mystery-surrounds-whereabouts-of-deposed-PM-Viktor-Yanukovych.html
Re Katyn: [Side issue, Saker. Please delete if not relevant. ]
“Both orthodoxies are wrong and Russian adherence to this orthodoxy is its Achilles heel – witness Putin’s just-announced “defense of the Nuremberg show trials” laws making it illegal to question the absurdities of – for example “… Germany as the perpetrator of the Katyn massacre (in spite of the opened Soviet archives confirming it was the Soviets).”
I’m not quite sure if the “defense of the Nuremberg show trials” laws do that, maybe so, I’d have to read them. But Grover Furr, an somewhat iconoclastic historian from Montclair State University in New Jersey seems to have questioned the official Katyn account, in the following: http://msuweb.montclair.edu/~furrg/research/furr_katyn_preprint_0813.pdf
If I read his paper correctly, the Soviet archives themselves merely confirm the transfer of a large number of explicitly named prisoners to Katyn and other sites in 1940, but say nothing about their killing. Recent archeological digs in Volodymyr-Volyns‘kiy, Western Ukraine, however, have found the identity badges of two Polish policemen whose names were on the transfer lists, in a mass grave dating at least to 1941 after Barbarossa, maybe later, based on the types of bullets found. According to Dr. Furr, the mass graves at Volodymyr-Volyns‘kiy, Ukraine, exhibit the type of “sardine packing” of bodies close together that the Nazis often used, and also the bodies of many children, whom the Nazis frequently killed but which the Soviets were not known to have done. Dr. Furr also makes the point that the Nazis were not known for their veracity.
Does anyone have any insight into Dr. Furr’s findings ? As far as I can tell from his web site, he is a professor of Medieval history, whose avocation seems to be researching Soviet archives. He also seems to be both a Unitarian-Universalist by religion, and a Marxist politically, odd combination. If his thesis is well substantiated, I doubt Mr. Putin will have us prosecuted.
Hunta just said that it will not negotiate on OSCE terms and it will destroy all “terrorists”. Strelkov from Slavyansk reports that the tanks and infantry are entering city and they will storm now, or early morning. Grad and artillery is ready. Pray to your various Gods for this good people souls. They and many local residents will die today, so that Putin can send Russian army in. If he will not Russians will loose more when any US/EU sanctions can inflict, we will all loose part of our soul… Just pray for them…
They exchanged Gubarev today because they plan to atak with artillery and grad soon. God save defenders!!!
quote “Can you imagine the hysteria if a US soldier is killed or a US pilot shot down? They would definitely making a “Behind Enemy Lines 3″ out of the incident)”
so what/ that is the whole point. so much terrorise the anglos by killling massive number of anglosaxon soldeirs that the anglos will be deterred from their usual mischief for ever.
kill as many anglos as posisble in the wazr. and not let anglos get away with their crime by having mercenaries taking the burnt of casualty.
quote “With IMF-conditions applied to the population, unrest will increase and expand, with Ukraine becoming a failed state”
did the populace of Russia revolt when the kids were pushed onto the streets of moscow and st. peterberg by the anglo-jew junta of yeltsin?
so why do you think that in 6 months the improvished and demoralised east ukrainians will revolt when they have seen that russia did nto intervene when she had good excuse and opportunity?
moscow is poroving ehrself to be a pushover-very bad for her future . you do nto show weakness to shchool yard bully-. russia had moral high ground and military superiorty-waht the pressstitude western media says msut not sway teh action any way.
As for EU you have seen the statement of English bitch Catherine ashton that Ukraine has right to defend her border integrity (apparently Syria has not that right nor Iraq or Libya)
In any civilised society they would have burned that Catherine ashton alive
can the world again trust such low life like that ashton woman?
I can’t forget one post few days earlier, pointing out a few details about eastern-ukrainian protesters; The Author claimed they are not “insurgents” or “pro-russian” – they are just federalists, anti-nazis and anti-ultranationalists, anti-Kiev junta – locals in defensive mode, trying to protect their families and right to have own voice in referendum about their governance. But they are NOT pro-Russian, they want to remain self-ruled Ukrainians and want nothing to do with Russia, EU or NATO.
If that’s true about majority of them, definitely Russia intervention would be of no help here, because they would see it as an invasion. It would only blacken further the image of Russia, as an oppressor of “freedom loving Ukrainians”, even if some of them openly cry to Putin for help. But how many really want such intervention? 10%? 25%? 50% ? Because I don’t think it is a majority. Even those “federalists” do not seem to be majority on the streets. Most of locals stay home, either undecided and waiting or ready to undergo any oppression, as long as it is not from “Moskals”, whom they hate, but gladly would take rubles and cheap gas from. No, I think Russia should not intervene until there is an overwhelming demand for such an action by the majority of locals. But the price of war is too high for Russia and for Ukraine civilians and war machine once started is not easy to stop. Bleeding and weak Russia is a wet dream of the West and bankers. Strong Russia is their nightmare.
Ukrainians should be allowed to solve their problems by themselves, even at the price of great suffering. How are they going to ever build any functioning state, if they let oligarchs rob them again and again with each new election? Instead of blaming and cursing Putin and “Moskals” they should take example of how Putin brought out Russia from the edge of abyss in 1999, by cutting off oligarchs from the political power. But for that, they would need wise and honest leaders ; something not easy to find in such a corrupted country, where banderites are allowed to flourish and terrorize the rest. If they had at least some honorable military leaders, they would drive their tanks to Kiev and force impostors to ensure peaceful referendums, constitutional reforms and fair elections, but above all – disarm right sector and investigate their crimes. And get rid of all CIA, Greystone mercenaries and all imported enforcers. Without that, nothing will work and Ukraine will change into Syria II without Assad but with caricature of “Yats&Turds”. But it will be of their own choice, so they could scream “Slava Ukrainu” while starving themselves on imaginary ‘heroism’ and empty nationalistic hubris.
Yes, Putin does not need all that putrid Ukrainian cauldron to clean up; he’s got more important things to do – not only for Russia, but the whole civilized world, thirsty for something true and dependable. The Russia may become the hope for the world, despite the Zionist shills trying to convince us otherwise.
“Which is better or worse?” – For who? You may mean for Ukrainians, but that is not what will determine what happens.
The western elites, via Obama, want to drag Russia into a tar pit, creating a major war to divert global focus away from the collapsing US dollar and Fiat banking system.
Putin is not going to play their game. He’d like to protect Russian-Ukrainians from the CIA-funded fascists in Kiev, but he isn’t going to sacrifice greater objectives for them. Obama et al would LIKE putin to make that mistake, so he isn’t going to oblige.
One problem is that many Ukrainians seem to have an overly rosy view of the West, the EU, of USA. They understand the flaws of Russia and Putin, but haven’t yet personally experienced the diabolical Satanist mass-murdering Zionist banker scum of the West. It seems to me that Putin may give them that lesson, by doing just enough (very little) in Ukraine to keep the West on their worst behaviour. Let them dig their own hole. If the process turns parts of Ukraine into another ruin like Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, so be it. Russia will stay distant enough that there will be no doubt in anyone’s eyes who was responsible for all the destruction and death. Aided by a few more judicious leaks like the Newland phone conversation too, perhaps.
Russia profits by selling gas to Europe via piplines through Ukraine? The CIA-funded Kiev junta will blow up the pipelines. Thus also cutting off gas to Ukraine, so the people freeze. So will Europe, and the US will be shown as both incapable of doing anything about it, and the original cause of the suffering.
The West imposes banking sanctions on Russia? Russia creates a new banking and funds transfer system, further undermining the failing US banks.
The West imposes trade sanctions on Russia? Putin has a gold coin currency minted, and trades oil in other country’s currencies – the exact same things that Libya and Iraq were destroyed for doing. Except this time China, India and many other nations stand with Russia and will be dumping US dollars, bonds and US banking schemes.
Russia is not going to send tanks into Ukraine. It will be far more effective to simply sit back and let the US tear itself apart.
And perhaps, at the right moment, Russia will tell us what their intelligence says happened to MH370. Proof that the US military took it, landed it on Diego Garcia to capture that mysterious 2 tons of undescribed cargo, which wasn’t to be permitted to reach China, and incidentally the USA murdered all the passengers – how will that change the world?
The game being played in Ukranie is NOT the game the stupid US warmongering White House morons think it is.
Assuming it doesn’t escalate to nuclear war, the results may turn out very well for the whole world. Not for the EU-crats or the arseholes in Washington though.
If Russia does not intervene and Ukraine becomes a US protectorate, then in 6 months the economic situation in Ukraine will be dire. The West cannot and will not sustain Ukraine’s economy. Winter will have settled in, while gas will not be abundant any more – if it’s still there. Compared to the economic miracle that will have taken place in Crimea, due to Russian investment, people all over Ukraine (eastern and western) will curse their luck for being on the wrong side of history. Then they will most probably try to overturn the imposed government and regain sovereignty. With help from Russia, they will manage (most probably). The result is that through lots of blood and suffering, Ukraine will have learnt not to trust the West.
If Russia does intervene between now and the end of May, the situation is way more complicated and chaotic. It will have gained on its side the eastern parts of Ukraine, but it will need to support those financially. The USA & EU will have found a wonderful opportunity to bedevil Russian aggression and paint Russia in the most evil lights not only within the rest of Ukraine but in the entire world. The western parts of Ukraine will become even more hardened, alienated from Russia and chained to the West. Even though they will still face severe economic hardship, they will weather that as a sign of resistance against the evil Russians. The USA will have managed to drive a concrete wedge between Russia and the EU (i.e. Germany), to the detriment of both, but mostly of the latter.
It goes without saying that the first option is better, since it will mean that the Ukrainian people will face the truth that the West has been manipulating them all this time. They will also understand that entry in the EU which the countries in the region have cherished for generations means actually occupation under the West’s orders.
If Russia sits on the fence and does nothing, US will see it as Russian surrender. The Neocons will be encouraged to push Obama for further strangulation of Russia with soft power, the result of which will be a Russian show of force. In either case I see an intervention by Russia. The question will be when.Russia will. Russia must have its way.
Russia will have to intervene sooner or later, better sooner than later.