By all accounts, all sides are ready for war. That does NOT mean that war is inevitable, only that there are no more objective factors making war impossible.
How long can this “neither quite here, nor quite there” situation last?
A long time, at least until the Fall of 2021.
Let’s not pretend like anybody is a prophet and can predict the future (all those who do are, in reality, clueless).
The most likely next phase would be a Ukronazi diversionary/terrorist attack, either in the Donbass, or in Crimea or even somewhere else in Russia. Keep in mind that the Ukie special services have a proven track of successful clandestine operations.
So what I suggest for a topic today is this: what kind of diversionary/terrorist provocations (as opposed to purely military moves) could the Ukronazis pull off the provoke the LDNR (or even Russia) and then declare itself a victim of aggression?
Hugs and cheers
The Saker
Let’s hope so! MAGA!
An opinion by Maria Zakarova on her Facebook. So, if you are like me and do not have a Facebook and refuse to have an account there, there is a way to see this one thing .. somewhere you have to say .. no thank-you, I don’t want login now .. and you can see this one thing.
So, Maria says: ” #Opinion by Maria #Zakharova:
“During her visit to #Donbass, the #US defense attaché to Ukraine visited a memorial to a militant of the Right Sector (an organisation banned in Russia). She also showed up wearing a “Ukraine or Death” shoulder patch. I sincerely hope she gets her “Ukraine.”
This is the way the US, Canadian and other NATO military personnel forge relations with Ukrainian radicals and neo-Nazis, keepers of the collaborators’ traditions and accomplices to the Holocaust.
There is nothing new in these NATO’s tactics. Starting 1945, the Nazis and their proxies were recruited by the CIA on a mass scale. Now they have come to Ukraine for reinforcement. A hellish carousel.”
https://www.facebook.com/MIDRussia/posts/3322981047801313
Moon of Alabama seems to think hostilities may have been called off:
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2021/04/after-the-bear-showed-its-teeth-the-ukraine-filed-for-peace.html
Zelensky himself is now talking about a renewed truce.
This seems to be in response to Russia moving military hardware to the border with Ukraine, including ballistic missiles.
Is sanity going to prevail or is this just baseless optimism?
An interesting analysis…..
Moscow’s new doctrine
The first step in this direction can be considered the holding of an integration forum in Donetsk at the end of January 2021, at which the presentation of the “Russian Donbass” doctrine, representing various options for the political future of southeastern Ukraine, took place. This doctrine formalized the creation of a new, alternative and competitive political entity for Kiev with a center in Donetsk.
The minimum program is the achievement of the administrative boundaries of Donetsk and Lugansk regions. The maximum program is the creation of the political association “Novorossiya” as part of the Donetsk, Lugansk, Kharkov, Dnepropetrovsk, Odessa, Zaporozhye, Kherson and Nikolaev regions, which together should return to the orbit of the Russian world.
The doctrine stated:
“Donbass is a stronghold for the liberation of Ukraine from nationalism and aggressive Russophobia, a refuge for persecuted Russian compatriots and supporters of the Russian World.”
The next public step towards zeroing the political course of Kiev was taken by the Russian administration on March 18, during the celebration of the seventh anniversary of the reunification of Crimea with Russia. On this day, Russian President Vladimir Putin for the first time, contrary to the legalist policy of the Russian bureaucracy, questioned the legality of the administrative borders of the USSR and declared the priority of the historical borders of Russia:
“The Bolsheviks, forming the Soviet Union, for some reason, still incomprehensible, transferred significant territories, geopolitical spaces to the address of quasi-state formations. And then, having collapsed on their own, having collapsed their party from within, having collapsed the Soviet Union, they led to the fact that Russia lost colossal territories and geopolitical spaces. “
Note that at the same time, Putin for the first time publicly questioned the sovereignty of the post-Soviet republics, which the Russian president called “quasi-state formations.” Putin linked their preservation with Russia’s interests in ensuring its own state security:
“We will never agree with only one thing: that someone should allow himself to use Russia’s generous gifts to harm the Russian Federation itself. I hope this will be heard. “
Another, not so obvious, but equally important thesis, Putin voiced regarding the political instruments of the new and not yet official doctrine, implying the use of the precedent of integration.
“Once again, we have clearly, clearly demonstrated to ourselves and to the whole world that our people have the ability and ability to unite around the interests of the Motherland,” the President of the Russian Federation announced.
To summarize, the new Moscow doctrine, in general terms, reads: Russia no longer regards the administrative borders of the USSR as unshakable. The priority is the historical justice of the people of Greater Russia and the security of the current federation. Russia has the right to integrate its historical regions when its sovereignty is under threat.
Let’s take it for granted that if a full-fledged conflict breaks out in the Donbas, Russia will have to use its Armed Forces against the Armed Forces of Ukraine. It will be done explicitly or not very explicitly – it does not matter. The main thing is that Moscow will have to use its troops, because in a duel situation Donetsk and Lugansk simply cannot withstand the Ukrainian army: the Ukrainian side has too great an advantage in forces and means. It is necessary to understand, accept and stop being ashamed of this state of affairs.
We will not dwell on the analysis of purely military aspects of coercing Kiev to peace, such as the “coordinated strike in converging directions from Crimea and Belarus to the rear of the JFO group,” which is constantly being sucked by the Ukrainian media. Let’s go up one floor and look at the map from a geopolitical point of view. So, Russia should have a number of scenarios that will act as positive targets of military action in the event of an active full-scale conflict in Donbass.
The first and main condition for the coercion of Kiev to peace is the recognition by Moscow and, most likely, the further unification of the people’s republics within their administrative borders – with the obligatory inclusion of the Mariupol agglomeration, as well as the industrial region of the same name. In fact, this was a potential, but for various reasons, the scenario of the 2015 model was never implemented. Now Moscow can not only implement it, but also make it an intermediate scenario on the way to the next stages of action.
The next logical step will be the liberation from the post-Maidan administration of Kiev of the southeastern regions of Ukraine: Kharkov, Dnepropetrovsk, Odessa, Zaporozhye, Kherson and Nikolaev, with the subsequent creation of an independent pro-Russian federation on their territory. This stage is much larger than the previous one and much more difficult to implement. The point here is not only in large territories, but also in the fact that in these territories there is now no pro-Russian political asset that could take power on the ground.
Unfortunately, after 2014, Moscow has not been engaged in the formation of such an asset (at least nothing is known about Russian activities in this direction), and Ukrainian political migrants in Russia are disoriented and disunited. At the same time, over the past seven years, Kiev has made a lot of efforts to destroy the pro-Russian movement in the above-mentioned regions of Ukraine and replace it with movements of a radical nationalist persuasion.
However, each medal, as you know, has two sides, so that in the Kharkiv region and other territories of Ukraine there are not only minuses, but also pluses for Russia. The latter are the deep fatigue of the local population from the war and political radicalism, rejection of the course and rhetoric of Kiev, as well as the unprecedentedly low ratings of the Ukrainian authorities. Local radicals retain their power over the street only through the connivance of the authorities and various schemes of cooperation with the special services, where they act as “death squads”.
Let’s not forget that the large-scale redistribution of the legal and gray economy of Ukraine launched by Zelensky creates an extremely high background of resistance to Kiev from large and regional businesses, which is also objectively in the interests of the Russian Federation. Mayors of large cities have long been a stable and cohesive opposition to the president, which also undermines the power of Kiev, which is largely virtual. Small businesses in Ukraine are also generally opposed to Zelensky.
The large-scale repressions of the SBU against not only opposition leaders, but also ordinary citizens of Ukraine demonstrate a steady growth of protest sentiments, which are already taking open forms. In fact, Kiev now retains power largely due to repression. A compromise created decades ago, or, if you like, a social contract based on the division of the legal and shadow economies between the regions and Kiev, is now actively breaking Zelensky personally. Control over cash flows from a unifying idea turned into conflict, which may well undermine the foundations of statehood in modern Ukraine.
Thus, potential partners of Russia are not only local authorities, but also large business in Ukraine, for which it is fundamentally important to preserve supply chains. The elimination of the power of the Kiev administration and its repressive bodies in the person of the SBU and radicals will contribute to the growth of local self-government and the creation of various options for cooperation.
The main task of Russia here is, without entering the space of cities and settlements, to ensure the safety of the population from the security forces and radicals of Kiev, as well as to create conditions for independent political activity. Here, oddly enough, the experience of “military diplomacy”, which Russia actively and successfully used in the difficult multinational conditions of Syria, can be very useful. Models of deconflicting, monitoring and maintaining a peaceful situation in the format of the work of the Centers for the Reconciliation of Parties, acting as effective centers for managing crisis situations, can be in demand not only when cleaning up post-Maidan infrastructure (which can be equated with terrorist organizations), but also for establishing a peaceful life in Ukraine. …
The same scenario can be easily scaled up to the maximum option – moving all the way to Kiev and creating a conditional red line along the administrative borders of Zhytomyr and Vinnytsia regions. Such a projection of power, with no participation in the political process, but creating conditions and a corridor of actions for it, will make it possible to reformat the political and public platform of Ukraine, taking into account Russia’s interests.
At the same time, the announced plans of Kiev to unleash a large-scale guerrilla war in the Center and in the South-East of the country are illusory. The deepest weariness of the Ukrainian population from war, poverty and corruption forms a stable demand for a peacekeeping agenda and a peaceful life. In this case, it will be important to ensure the security of the border with the western regions to prevent the infiltration of sabotage and terrorist detachments from there. In this scenario, any political scenarios are possible: reformatting a unitary Ukraine into a federation, creating a confederation with the participation of Novorossia, incorporating Novorossia into Russia, and so on.
Russia has forces and means
It is this scenario that the United States is trying with all its might to avoid in order to continue attempts to strangle Russia with technological and political sanctions, an international blockade, as well as aggressive actions against Russian citizens. Vladimir Putin’s doctrinal turn, which both the Russian bureaucracy and the United States and its minions in Kiev have tried to ignore, requires Moscow to make bold political decisions. If Kiev does not come to its senses, then the time will come for them. Each new Ukrainian shell that hit Donetsk and Lugansk only confirms this conclusion.
Well, Russia has long had the strength and means to implement its political decisions on the Ukrainian “field”. For example, the 1st Guards Tank Red Banner Army, recreated in 2014. However, this is already a topic for a separate conversation …”
A Russian point of view…. that…
Hi,
Having been reading the American Pravda series in the Unz review, I think the answers lie in the question- what courses of actions benefit Israel the most? They’ve been controlling the game for a long time and are certainly stepping up here. NATO knows the gig and is wary. US and UK are Israeli puppets- other Five-Eyes members aren’t worth spit. Zelensky is a tool and doesn’t piss without permission. Erdogan, a simple dictator desiring power and wealth is the easiest to manipulate while he thinks he’s running his own game. Israel is applying this pressure on Russia and I suspect it’s because of Syria. The OPCW has neutered itself so can’t help sell another chemical attack in Syria or elsewhere. The MSM will continue to print the usual Empire lies so who cares about that. Not I, and I suspect, not Putin. Israel is probing Putin for weak points. It’s a bit of global judo and Putin cannot be pinned and submitted. They will negotiate because that’s what Russia does. East Ukraine activity is a Trojan Horse that won’t get in the gate and will burn outside the walls. I feel that the real play is happening elsewhere. Israel wants something big from Putin. Whether they get or not is another story. False flag attack? Israel to sink a US warship in the Black Sea because the US is Okay with these things.
Trojan Horse . . . I agree with this idea. We are all very concerned about Crimea and the Donbass, even fixated on this potentiality. It seems to me there is an element of distraction in the Ukraine game. The US may be hoping to create yet another long and drawn out conflict in order to fatten the wallets of it’s military industrial complex, and the Pentagon will rake in the cash as long as possible while trying to remain just short of a full-on war. So what are we missing while all eyes are on Ukraine? The effort to hem in Russia is obvious. What’s developing with Taiwan and the South China Sea? While I believe a false flag in the region of Ukraine is imminent, I can’t help but wonder if there is something we are overlooking. Corporate Oligarchs run the US, what is their endgame?
Nema rata, Rusija je zaista premoćna vojna sila, i to svi znaju, tako su ovo neke igre, kojime Rusima izgledaju kao cirkus. Pored uzvišenog Duha Ruske nacije koji je zaista proviđenje, jer uvijek je spasavao čovječenstvo, Rusija se uzdigla u super vojnu silu, jer uvijek je podnosila velike žrtve na oltar slobode, sada Rusija može uništiti neprijatelja na njegovoj teritoriji, i toga su svi svjesni.
—————
Google-translate from mod:-
“There is no war, Russia is a really overpower military force, and everyone knows, so these are some games, which the Russians look like a circus. In addition to the sublime spirit of the Russian nation, because it has always saved humanity, Russia has always filed great victims at the Freedom Altar, now Russia can destroy the enemy, and that is all aware of that.”
What kind of diversionary/terrorist provocations could the Ukronazis pull off the provoke the LDNR (or even Russia)?
Set fire to the historic Nevskaya Manufactory building in St. Petersburg.
One brief ray of light getting through: Angela Merkel is said to have approached Russia to buy the Sputnik-V vaccination. It’s a small but significant move in this tense moment..
Response to your question?
History and experience call out on attacks in strategic infrastructure either in Crimea, the Donbass, or, as you mentioned within Russia.
What would be more painful for Russia? A terrorist attack within Russia would cohesive Russians internally and will put Russians under attack one way or the other even in the mainstream media. So i see it unlikely (however, one can never underestimate Western stupidity).
Same in Crimea. A terrorist attack in there will unify Crimeans and Russians even more.
In that terms, NATO needs to “show” the world Russia is the attacker, not the victim. And due effectivity of the chemical attack has proved bullet-proof in Syria, then my guess is the terrorust attack will commence in the Ukranian frontier with the Donbass. There, NATO will “prepare the Russian offensive towards the control of the world”.
That will prepare the theatrical pharse of the NATO operetta to conquer Russia for now and forever.
As you have already mentioned, Russia has much to lose in a hot war scenario against the Ukranian colony: Being disconnected from the SWIFT clearance way of international payments, good bye to NS2 and sanctions harder to those impose to Iran.
Nevertheless, that would still be preferable to the fall of Russia as a equilibrium against Western Totalitariam and complete control of the planet.
I agree, should the ultimate circumstances come, then Russia will have to take Ukraine down to the Dnieper to ensure the supply of water to Crimea, and then U turn to Central Asia, China and South Pacific and forget the West for the decades to come. Encroach within, and change meridians towards East playing fully with China in a 2.0 East-West cold war in southeast Asia.
My opinion only
Here you go… from a Ukranian ambassador’s account:
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1382410912821342208