Dear friends

Today rather than commenting on the risks of a major war in Europe, or even the entire northern hemisphere, I want to share a few things about the blog.

Minor issue: Twitter “cleaning house”

There are currently two twitter accounts which claim a connection to me:

https://twitter.com/vineyardofsaker
https://twitter.com/VineyardSaker

The first one was run by a friend of mine.
I have no idea who ran the second one.
Please notice that the first one’s last tweet is dated  Jun 17, 2019
The second one last tweet is date Apr 11, 2020

In other words, these are dormant/abandoned accounts.

My friend lost the credentials to the first one, and I never had the credentials to the second one.

I tried to email Twitter, but they did not even bother reading my email and sent me a standard reply telling me that I can log in and deactivate the accounts.  They also told me that they have no way to establish if these accounts are mine or not.  And since I don’t have the credentials to login, there is nothing I can do about this.

So, for the record, I want both of these closed, but since I cannot make that happen, I can only publicly declare that I have no association with either one of these accounts.

That is really no big deal, but I want to make my position public and clear.

Next,

Major issue: the future of the blog

Last year I took three months off for health reasons.  That was the time when the Internet was flooded by a Tsunami of nonsense about Bucha, Kharkov and other Russian “strategic defeats” and I knew that 3 months down the road, all that nonsense would peter out.  And it did (see this interview of Colonel Maccgregor if you want details).  As for me, I took my first break from blogging since 2007 and it was very beneficial to me as it allowed me to take care of some health issues I had neglected.

In the past I have indicated several times that should it come to a direct war between the USA and Russia I would shut down the blog because being a guest in the USA (I only have a “Green Card”) while my country of ethnic origin is at war with the USA puts me in an impossible position.  Again, while I have lived a total of 26 years in the USA, and all my family has US passports by birth, I never requested a US passport (my only citizenship is Swiss) and that is why I think of myself as a guest of the USA.  This places both moral and legal obligations upon me which I cannot and will not ignore.

True, we are not quite there YET, but with the German Foreign Minister declaring that the EU is at war with Russia, and knowing that the EU is just a colonial administration, we are very, very close to a full-scale war between the US and Russia.  What is even worse is that I don’t see how such a war could be avoided.  I explained that in my recent post here.  Simply put, there is *zero* chance of the US/NATO/EU victory, which means that the US Neocons will be faced by a stark choice: defeat or go nuclear (and even that won’t yield a victory for the United West).

Putin tried everything in his power to avoid that outcome, but he was not dealing with rational actors – which is a key assumption of any theory of deterrence – and so it is the US Neocons that forced this outcome on the entire planet.

What the US Neocons will eventually decide is impossible to predict: yes they are cowards, but they are hate-filled cowards.  And I am not so sure about their self-preservation instincts simply because they are too ignorant and stupid to understand the danger.

Frankly, I am appalled and disgusted by the current situation.

I have been warning about these risks since 2008 (that is FIFTEEN years ago!) and all my efforts and all the efforts of those who tried to prevent this from happening have failed.

More relevantly, I don’t think that there is anything meaningful I could contribute to even marginally affect the current situation: I often feel that I have said all that I had to say, I did everything I possibly could, and that now further efforts would essentially be wasted as the guns will do all the talking.

To be brutally honest, I am no prophet and maybe, by God’s Mercy, the current war will not explode into something much larger.  Yes, that is still possible.  But I personally don’t see how so I REALLY hope that I am wrong in my conclusions.

But as of today, I think that only some kind of miracle could prevent a major escalation.

This begs the question: what would be the purpose for me to continue?

Then there is also this reality: I have a wonderful family and that family needs me.  For years I have fully invested myself into this blog and now my family is telling me that they need me.  How can I ignore that?  Furthermore, I am under no illusions about the future of the USA (or Europe, for that matter), which means that bad times are ahead, and my family will need me even more than they do now.  Again, how can I ignore that?

And yes, while some of my health issues have improved, others have deteriorated and my strong feeling of burnout, disgust and horror about the current dynamics are not helping.

And then there is this: there are other people out there who are doing a great job of informing and analyzing.  These are the authors I can sincerely recommend: (in no special order)

and, of course, there is the larger Saker Community:

These are all (the only) legitimate Saker Community sites, but they are run independently.  Make sure to check them out too!

I understand that the worst part about shutting down the blog would be that it would also shut down the platform for our absolutely *fantastic* community of guest authors which, frankly, has been the biggest asset of this blog.  I wish I had a way to keep them going without me, but I really don’t see how (any ideas?).

Now just to be absolutely clear: I have not taken any decisions yet.  My only goal today is to truthfully and honestly inform you.  I also would very much like to hear from you, especially those of you who have supported me for so many years.  While I cannot promise anything, I can promise that I will listen to your suggestions and opinions.

In the meantime,  I want to give myself some time to pray, think and consult with my family and friends, but I don’t want to keep you in the dark about where I now stand.

Andrei

***

And since it is Friday, I want to share with you one of my absolute favorite compositions of one of my favorite Russian composers, Rachmaninov (the other one would be Scriabin).  It is entitled “Suite No. 1 Op. 5 (Fantaisie-Tableaux) for 2 pianos” (1893).  I think of this composition as “prophetic”, as if Rachmaninov felt what would soon happen to his country and his people.  This is one of the most beautiful pieces of music I have ever heard.  Enjoy!