[this analysis was written for the Unz Review]
The murder of the Iranian hero-martyr General Soleimani created a situation in which a war between Iran and the Axis of Kindness (USA/Israel/KSA) became a real possibility but, at the very last minute, Uncle Shmuel decided that he had no stomach for a full-scale war against Iran. Wise decision.
This, however, does not at all imply that the AngloZionist Empire decided to stand by idly, far from it. The need to take quick and determined action became particularly acute following the huge anti-US demonstrations in Iraq (well over one million people in the streets!) which directly put at risk the US occupation (the MSM would call it “presence”) in both Iraq and Syria.
At the same time, Turkish President Erdogan’s refusal to remove all the “bad terrorists” from the Idlib province eventually resulted in a joint Syrian-Russian offensive to liberate the province. That offensive, in turn, clearly infuriated the Turks who warned of a major military operation to prevent the Syrians from liberating their own country.
This begs the question: are Russia and Turkey really on a collision course?
There are certainly some very worrying warning signs including a number of very harsh statements by Erdogan himself, and a suddenly re-kindled Turkish interest for the US “Patriots”.
On the ground in Idlib, the Turks have clearly provided the “bad terrorists” with a lot of support including equipment, MANPADs, tanks and armored personnel carriers. The Turks actually went as far as sending special forces to assist the “bad terrorists” directly. Finally, from footage taken by Russian and Syrian drones, and even the “bad terrorists” themselves, it appears undeniable that Turkish MLRS and regular artillery provided the “bad terrorists” with fire support.
Both sides also agree that a number of Turkish personnel were killed (they only disagree on how many and what these Turks were doing in Syria).
Finally, and most ominously, there is even a video circulating on the Internet which appears to show a US “Stinger” being fired by the “bad terrorists” at a Russian aircraft which, thank God, managed to evade it (unlike 2 Syrian Army helicopters which were shot down).
So the first conclusion that we can come to is that the Turks are already engaged in combat operations against the Syrians. For the time being, these combat operations are just below the threshold of “credible deniability”, but not by much. For example, if the Turks had shot down a Russian aircraft you can be pretty certain that the Russian public opinion (which has still not forgiven Erdogan for the downed Su-24) would have demanded that the Russian Aerospace Forces massively retaliate (just as they have every time Russian military personnel have been killed) kill scores of Turks.
The Russian position is very straightforward. It goes something like this:
The Turks committed to remove all the “bad terrorists” from the Idlib province, leaving only the “good terrorists” who are committed to a ceasefire and a political peace process in place. That did not happen. In this case, the Syrians clearly have to do themselves what the Turks refused (or could not) do. The Russian military presence in Syria, and the Russian military operations, are all absolutely legitimate and legal: the legitimate government of Syria invited the Russians in, and the UNSC agreed to back the Syrian peace process. Thus the Russian Aerospace Forces’ strikes against the “bad terrorists” are absolutely legal. Furthermore, Russia very much deplores the presence of regular Turkish units among the “bad terrorists” which is both illegal and very unhelpful. Finally, the Russian Aerospace forces have no way to determine who sits in which tank, or who provides artillery cover for the operations of the “bad terrorists”. Thus, if Turkish military personnel are killed in Syrian or Russian operations, this would be entirely the fault of Ankara.
So far the Turkish military operation has been rather unsuccessful and limited.
But Erdogan is now promising a major attack.
Will that happen and what can the Turks really do?
First and foremost, Turkey does not have the means to enter into a full-scale conflict with Russia. Turkey cannot do that for political, economic and military reasons:
Political: the simple truth is that Turkey (and Erdogan) desperately need Russian political support, not only towards the West, but also towards Iraq, Iran or Israel. Furthermore, Erdogan has now clearly deeply alienated the Europeans who are fed up with Erdogan’s constant threats to open the “refugees” spigot. As for the Turks, they have already known for years that the EU will never accept them and that NATO will not support Turkey in its (very dangerous) operations in Iraq and Syria.
Economic: Turkey’s economy really suffered from the sanctions introduced by Russia following the shooting down of the Russian Su-24 by Turkish aircraft (backed by USAF fighters). What was true then is even more true now, and the Turkish public opinion understands that.
Military: the past years have been absolutely disastrous for the Turkish armed forces which were purged following the coup attempt against Erdogan. This sorry state of affairs is indirectly confirmed by the very poor performance of Turkish forces in Syria.
What about a conflict limited to Syria?
Again, Turkey is in a bad position. For one thing, the Syrians and, even more so, the Russians control the airspace above Idlib. The Turks are so frustrated with this state of affairs that they have now reportedly asked the US to deploy Patriot missiles in southern Turkey. This is a rather bizarre request, especially considering that Turkey purchased S-400s from Russia or how pathetically the Patriots actually performed (recently in the KSA and elsewhere before that). This, by the way, might well be a case of fake news since, apparently, there are no Patriots available for Turkey even if the US agreed to sell.
Then there is the bellicose rhetoric we hear from Erdogan. For example, he recently declared that:
“The regime, backed by Russian forces and Iran-backed militants, are continuously attacking civilians, committing massacres and shedding blood, (…) I hereby declare that we will strike regime forces everywhere from now on regardless of the [2018] deal if any tiny bit of harm is dealt to our soldiers at observation posts or elsewhere.”
That kind of language is, of course, very dangerous but, at least so far, the Turkish operation has been both limited and unsuccessful. Syrian President Assad was not impressed and declared that:
It also means that we must not rest idle, but prepare for the battles to come. As a result, the battle to liberate the Aleppo and Idlib countryside continues regardless of some empty sound bubbles coming from the north (vain threats from Erdogan), just as the battle continues to liberate all of Syrian soil, crush terrorism and achieve stability.
In the meantime, in Iraq, the US has apparently dug-in and categorically refuses to leave. In practical terms this means that the Iraqis will have to step up their anti-US campaign both politically (more protests and demonstrations) and militarily (more IEDs, convoy attacks and, probably soon, drone, cruise missile and ballistic missile attacks on US targets in Iraq). I don’t believe that the US will be able to sustain that kind of pressure in the mid to long term, especially not in an election year (which promises to be hellish anyway). Right now, the Idiot-in-Chief seems to think that threatening Iraq with “very big sanctions” is the way to restore good relationships. In reality, all this will do is to further inflame anti-US feelings in Iraq and the rest of the region.
Then there is the tactical situation. Please check these two maps: (click on map for a higher resolution)
The part in red shows the government controlled areas. The light blue (or light green on the 2nd map) show the Turkish deployment. The part in olive green (or darker green on the 2nd map) shows the parts of the Idlib province which are still under Takfiri occupation. Finally, the small region around Tell Rifaat are controlled by the Kurds.
The Syrian forces, backed by Russia, have now pushed back the latest Turkish+Takfiri attack north and west of Aleppo and they are now attacking the southern tip of the Takfiri occupation zone around the Zawiya mountain and highlands, see here:
The Syrians have options here. They can either gradually push north, or they can try to envelop the Takfiri forces in a “cauldron”. Finally, the Syrians would score a major victory if they succeeded in regaining control of the highway between Aleppo and Latakia (in blue on the map).
As for the Turkish-backed Takfiris, they are pushing very hard towards Idlib, so far with only moderate and temporary successes (they typically take a location at huge cost in lives and equipment and then cannot hold on to it as soon as the Syrians and Russians bomb the crap out of their newly conquered positions).
All of this is taking place while Syrian, Russian, Turkish and US patrols are regularly meeting, often in rather tense situations which could quickly escalate into a firefight or, even worse, an open battle. There is also the risk of an incident in the air since these four nations also conduct air operations over Syria. And, just like in the case of the ground operations, Syrian and Russian air operations are legal under international law, Turkish, US or Israeli operations are not and constitute an act of “aggression” (n.b: the highest crime under international law).
So far, the various negotiations between the parties have not yielded any result. This might change on March 5th when a conference on Syria attended by Turkey, Russia, France and Germany will meet (probably in Istanbul) to try to find a negotiated solution. Considering that Turkish soldiers are killed every day and already that 2 Syrian helicopters have been shot down, this might be too late to avoid an escalation.
I will conclude here by posting a (minimally corrected) machine translation of a Russian translation of a text originally written by a Turkish political commentator and translated into Russian by a Telegram channel: (emphasis added)
Russia’s strategy from the very beginning was to return full control of Syrian territories to Assad. And Moscow was implementing its plans, getting closer to the goal step by step. As long as Damascus will not take Idlib, the operation will continue. You don’t need to be an expert in this field to understand this. This is obvious. Someone says that Erdogan’s trip to Ukraine played a role in the offensive operations of Damascus. In fact, this visit is the result of the Syrian army’s offensive. The Turkish President went to Kiev just after tensions rose between the Turkish armed forces and the Russian side. Erdogan is in Ukraine made statements that have caused irritation in Moscow.
Turkish diplomacy was at an impasse. We discussed for a long time that you can’t put all your eggs in one Russian basket. And they said: we will buy the S-400, build a nuclear power plant, and develop tourism. And Putin was made a hero in our country. And now the defense Secretary is talking about buying American patriot air defense systems. And the President is talking about acquiring Patriot. “We did not succeed with Russia, we will get closer to the United States” – this is not how foreign policy is done. We need consistency in foreign policy. It is not appropriate for a country with a strong military power to change sides between world powers once a week.
What we are still discussing these days: we need to get closer to Europe and the US against Russia. These discussions worry our entrepreneurs who work with Russia. The tourism sector is concerned. Without Russian tourists, our tourism sector cannot fill all the volumes and make a profit. We have not yet been able to resolve these issues, and we are discussing a clash with Russia. Let’s remember what happened after Turkey shot down a Russian plane. Our tourism sector could not recover for two years. What to expect from a military clash. We have to talk about it.
The goal of our state: to live in peace on our land, and keep all the troubles away from yourself, while doing this to attract new troubles – this is not an indicator of a good military strategy or a well-thought-out diplomatic strategy. Everyone should understand this.
The risk for Erdogan is obvious: in case of a serious confrontation with Russia (and Syria AND Iran, don’t forget them!), the consequences for Turkey might be severe, resulting in a sharp rise in anti-Erdogan feelings in Turkey, something he can hardly afford.
And that brings us to the current US/NATO/CENTCOM posture following the assassination of General Soleimani I mentioned in the beginning of this article. The risks of a quick and dangerous escalation involving the USA and Iran are still extremely high. The same can be said for the risks of a resumption of anti-US attacks by Iraqi Shia forces. Then there are the conflicts in both Afghanistan and Yemen, which Uncle Shmuel probably would prefer to end, but has no idea how. In these countries a rapid escalation could occur at any time, especially following Iran’s officially declared goal to kick the US out of the Middle-East. And now, there is a risk of major escalation between Turkey, Syria and Russia: such an escalation would have a major potential to suck in the US forces in the region, even if nobody does so deliberately (or if the Iranians do that very deliberately).
Right now Uncle Shmuel is busy with a strategic PSYOP trying to get Russia and Iran into a conflict (see this propaganda piece for example). That will not work, as both the Russians and the Iranians are waaaaaaay too savvy to fall for such primitive things. The US also tried to instigate riots inside Iran, but they quickly petered out (as did the rumors about the US deliberately shooting down the Ukrainian airliner).
The Middle-East is impossible to predict, it is too complex and there are too many possible factors which influence the situation. Still, my guess is that the March 5th conference, assuming it takes place, will force Erdogan to back down and re-pledge his commitment to bringing back security to the Idlib province. That is, as far as I can see, the only way for Erdogan to avoid an embarrassing military defeat with possibly very serious political consequences.
Conversely, should there be an open clash between Turkey and Syria+Russia, then I don’t see NATO intervening to back Turkey. At the most, the US/NATO can send forces to “protect” Turkey and equipment, but in both cases these would not be effective (the problems of the Turkish military are too big to be solved by such mostly symbolic actions). While some more rabid countries (Poland, Netherlands, UK and, of course, the USA) might be tempted to get a major NATO action going against Syria and, through that, against Russia, the mentally saner EU countries have exactly zero desire to end up in a war against Russia, not over the Ukraine, and not over Syria.
Thus while Erdogan is desperately trying to pit the USA against Russia, this will not work, especially since this latest pro-US “zag” will only further alienate Iran (and the rest of the region). I predict that after the March 5th conference, Erdogan will be forced to resume his “friendship” with Putin and basically cave in.
If that does not happen, for whatever reason, an escalation will be pretty close to inevitable.
The Saker
PS: Colonel Cassad (aka Boris Rozhin) has published on his blog an interesting article which looks at a theory which, apparently, is popular in the Middle-East and Russia. This theory says that what is taking place is a gigantic show, a deception, in which both Russia and Turkey appear to be at odds, but in reality are working hand in hand to disarm the Takfiris and exchange territory. Here are, in his opinion, the possibly indications of such a collaboration: (machine translated and minimally corrected)
- After some formalities, Turkey resumed joint patrols with the Russian military in Rojava, which is carried out in a routine manner.
- Russia has increased the quota for the supply of Turkish tomatoes to Russia despite the fact that Russia threatened to block the supply of Turkish tomatoes.
- USA did not give Turkey patriot missile, which was described in the Turkish media referring to anonymous sources in the Turkish government. No actual support from the United States and NATO, Turkey has not received.
- Despite the fact that the SAA was not going to stop the offensive and continued to surround the Turkish observation points, Turkey has effectively given Assad’s carte blanche for all of February, stating that no major combat operation will be initiated before the beginning of March.
- The main chain of the new observation points were deployed by Turkey to the North of highway M-4. The southern direction is not actually strengthened. Attempts to cover the Kafr will Sagna or Kafr Nabl were not undertaken, although this is more important points than Nairab.
- The bulk of the Pro-Turkish militants were drawn to Idlib and Carmine, while the southern front was actually exposed for Assad there is a situation of maximum favour for liberation dozen cities and towns.
- The battle of Niravam turned into a week-long meat grinder, where the militants engaged in stupid frontal assaults against Syrian positions with heavy losses but capturing Neirab, there is virtually nothing on the operational level, they did not win – losing people and most importantly – time.
- The Russian and Turkish military keep all channels of communication and exchange information, including on the movement of Turkish columns. The Russian military help to supply the surrounded Turkish observational points in the rear of Assad.
- Moscow and Ankara have repeatedly stressed that not to seek a military conflict with each other, preferring to seek resolution of disputes through diplomatic means.
And Rozhin adds:
Why all this may be part of a backroom deal? Because such a scenario would allow Turkey to look like a defender of Idlib, which is in strong opposition to the plans of Assad and Putin. At least visually. As for Assad and Putin, they can claim to have liberated part of the Idlib province. The battle of Niravam in this logic allow Erdogan to save face before “in the interests of peace and security,” to sign a new deal with Russia with a new line of demarcation, which officially has already been discussed at negotiations in Moscow on 17-18 February. Officially, the Turks rejected it. But it’s official. And if we assume that the agreement already exists and this just fixed sight 5 March, while Assad released another piece of Idlib and the militants “An-Nusra” will be partially disposed in the battles with the SAA in Idlib and in the southern frontal attack on the front under Niranam. In favor of this version may indicate the previous experience of transactions between Russia and Turkey, when Ankara loudly growled at Assad, but de facto did not prevent the Assad regime to clean up the enclaves and win the battle for Aleppo. Against this version can play what the Turks themselves are suffering losses in manpower, and further concessions to Russia may undermine Erdogan’s positions in Idlib, so he tries to bargain.
I personally doubt this version, if only because this is a very tricky and dangerous way to get things done, and because of the many threats and even ultimatums Erdogan is constantly spewing. A more likely explanation for all of the above is that 1) the Takfiris are desperate and are running out of steam and 2) the Turks are afraid of a serious confrontation with Russia. Rozin concludes:
I think that by March 5 the question of whether there is was a secret deal or not will finally be clarified, since Erdogan’s threats are all focusing on early March, at which point he will have to either attack or chose to play the role of peacemaker, which “diplomatically” stopped the advance of Assad.
Here I can only agree with him.
VS
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Well, it looks like Turkish and the SAA are openly slugging it out now – the bylines on RT suggest the Turks conducted an air strike on the SAA which seems odd – I thought Russia and the SAA had Syrian airspace locked down.
Erdogan requires a severe humiliation. His attempt to occupy and seize Syria territory is collapsing in his face. His dirty attempt to save vicious Sunni Islamist terrorists has exposed this serpent djinn in front of everyone and his proxies are being slaughtered in his face too.
I think Russia should continue to hammer and grind away any of Erdogan’s forces that are directly embedded with the Wahhabi terrorists they are protecting.
Putin should continue to placate Erdogan verbally while letting the SAA and VVS puree the terrorists and those elements of Erdogan’s forces that are like minded Islamists.
This is real justice. I can’t get enough of watching Erdogan howl impotently.
Good comment, but if I were you I would use only the world ‘TERRORIST’. There are over a billion Muslim SUNNI that are against those TERRORIST who are misguided Muslims, Zionist Jews, Zionist Christians and Zionists Atheists. So please be smart.
what are you talking about? we are currently looking after 3.8million refugees and they are only HUMANS. as Erdogan says “we do not need your land or oil, we want this safe zone for our securty. Syria belongs to Syrians”. what would you do if you were in our place? It is a shame for your huımanity.
There would be no refugees if Egodjinn and his psycho-zio and wahhabi buddies did not instigate a war in Syria.
SoghdianSon, that was an encore……..Bravo!
Breaking News: 33 Turkish troops killed in airstrike in Idlib.
https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/202002271078422764-nine-turkish-troops-killed-under-fire-in-syrias-idlib-governor-of-hatay-province-claims/
This follows a strike on a Syrian convoy by Turks.
Erdogan calls Emergency meeting of his government.
https://www.rt.com/news/481856-turkish-soldiers-killed-airstrike-idlib/
The airstrike on the Turks was by the Syrian AF. Though early reports had it by the Russians.
As for the total killed, Turkey has been dressing their proxies in Turk uniforms, so we don’t know how many of these 33 are actually Turkish military.
What this incident does is show that the war Erdogan wants is with Assad, and Assad is content to give it him. The Syrians have said all throughout the war, they will fight any nation that has come to Syria uninvited.
It has been confirme that they were Turkish military by the Turks. What is not known is how many critically injured there are. I believe the Russian MOD confirmed that Russia planes were involved in the strike, possibly in response to Turkish troops targeting Russian planes with Manpads.
Saker wil need to update this
Russian MOD claims Syrian forces hit Turks, not Russians
“I believe the Russian MOD confirmed that Russia planes were involved in the strike, possibly in response to Turkish troops targeting Russian planes with Manpads.”
The guardian is not an accurate, nor relevant source for news.
The initial Turk media report on theis airstrike was that dozens of Turkish soldiers were killed in a Russian airstrike. The Turks later said the airstrike was done by the Syrians. The Russians never said they carried out the strike and have officially denied the claims by others it was them.
Live Updates: Russian Air Forces Did Not Carry Out Strikes in Area Where Turkish Servicemen Were Hit
https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/202002271078422764-nine-turkish-troops-killed-under-fire-in-syrias-idlib-governor-of-hatay-province-claims/
“05:51
Russian Air Forces Did Not Carry Out Strikes in Area Where Turkish Servicemen Were Hit – Moscow
“Russian Aerospace Forces have not used aviation in the area of Behun”, the official statement said.”
Larchmonter445
It’s questionable if Erdogan has a clear picture in his head what he is supposed to do. His military is incapable of defeating the Kurds inside Turkey, yet he engages in a mlitary adventure in Syria. Before that he supported ISIS, permitting ISIS oil tankers to enter Turkey with plundered Syrian oil. No doubt he took a percentage of oil sold. And now ? He has found himself in a political and military mess. Worse, the Turkish economy is none too rosy. If he enters into a military conflict with Syria, he risks starting a chain reaction inside Turkey, leading to political, social and economic downturns. It would be wise for him if on March 5th he announced a Turkish pullout from Syria, getting guarantees in exchange.
B.F.
Latest news is that NATO held an emergency meeting at Turkey’s request. Turkey received sympathy and condolences, but no military support, as was to be expected. Did Erdogan really believe that most NATO members would support him in his imperial ambitions, playing off NATO against Russia ?
@B.F.
Erdogan also lost 7-10 men in Libya yesterday. He’s getting his butt kicked in two wars. Since there are thousands of military who are waiting for the right moment to overthrow him, Erdogan is doing the exact opposite of what he should be doing. His desperation phone calls to Putin cannot assuage the strategic errors he is making.
The US is probably ready to swoop in and take Ankara when the next coup occurs. They will use the excuse of securing the nuclear bombs at Incirlik AFB. Then they will install a stooge leader.
Russia is in a position of having to talk Erdogan down from the ledge or lose Turkey as an tactical partner.
Erdogan might have gotten up to 100 men killed and wounded yesterday. He is trying to control his media so his own people blame Russia and Syria. This is doubly stupid. His economy will crash completely if Russians don’t import tomatoes and send over a million tourists to Turkey each year.
The Russians have to help him manage this disaster. And help him dress up a retreat from Idlib. But he has to listen.
Of course, he has to disengage from the terrorists, abandon them completely to the Syrian onslaught, or he will surely experience more devastating losses in the days and weeks ahead.
The offensive is not going to stop. The UN might decry the impact on civilians, but the facts on the ground are the Syrians and Russians have been scrupulous in their targeting. The collateral losses of civilians are human shields and terrorists’ families al Nusra uses to gain sympathy and propaganda from their sponsor nations. It has been minimal.
Assad has two allies geopolitically for the UN issues–Russia and China.
On the ground, he has Hezbollah and Iran’s militias to assist with the ground attack.
In the air, he has Russia.
Turkey has discovered that they fight alone, alongside the terrorists, but with no allies and none to come.
The word is already quietly going around for the ‘elite’ and not so elite take their holiday elsewhere and stay out of Turkei. It remains to be seen if this ‘advice’ is ‘enforced’.
Auslander
Larchmonter, great comment…..on the money too……you seem to know what’s up.
All the commentators forget one fundamental point: There doesn’t need to be an all out war. USA doesn’t need to win a war and/or USA doesnt want to start a war with Russia. Using proxies is what USA/West does. Causing chaos is what they are after, not an outright war. This has been their pattern since WWII. A quick look at all the “wars” USA started but never finished shows they want chaos. Vietnam, Korea, Italy, Greece, Chile, Egypt, the chaos caused was enough.
A small conflict between Russia and Turkey will be enough to immediately start a huge anti Russia/Iran/Syria propaganda in all of Western corporate media and calls for immediate and severe sanctions against Russia. That is what USA is after. More anti Russia propaganda that it can use.
And remember, April is coming soon. That is when by cheer coincidence(yeah, right!) NATO will be starting its biggest war games aimed at (by sheer coincidence once again) Russia with over 50.000 solders. None of this is by coincidence, obviously. The timing itself is worrying. Add to it the obvious man made Corona virus and the pieces all begin to get together. The West is about ready to start a full out assault against Russia/China. They cannot wait any longer because their so called “Capitalism” will not survive even a few more years and is showing clear signs of imminent collapse.
Putin better be prepared, so far he has been way too accommodating and his accommodation has been read as weakness by the West/USA/NATO.
The Corona Virus impact globally looks like a pandemic that will cause a global recession. We’ll see certain signs of this by mid-March.
Then, the US will have enormous need to coordinate with China a fast rebound. Getting China’s factories and exports going, and getting Chinese domestic consumption of high end products, luxury brands and imports from US and EU is imperative.
The US will recover very slowly otherwise, and Trump may lose the election if the crashed economy and an epidemic are the topics pinned on his administration.
This virus has the ability to shut down US major trading partners and the gas and oil industry based on fracking.
It certain already is impacting travel and tourism. Boeing is having enough self-inflicted problems selling airplanes, the US biggest export. The virus can shatter the auto, travel, tourist and aircraft industries.
Maybe COVID-19 will be the Black Swan that mortally wounds the Hegemon.
The corona virus is being used (and maybe created) as an excuse/cover-up for the economic meltdown the elites have been preparing with dedication.
Remember, the 1% percents profits are privatized, but its loses are socialized to the 99%
My thoughts exactly. And isn’t it curious that the ruling class in Iran is struck down by the virus. China and Iran mmmmm…..
Boeing stock has slid to 286.10 down another 1.66 in after-hours trading. This is -21.80% in the last three months. The 2.06 USD ex-dividend date was the 13th of February, so this money has left the kitty.
No banker in their right mind is going to advance loans to a company that has negative equity to continue paying dividends. The February order book will likely show no new sales for the month, as was the case in January. This is a leap year, so the company has an extra day and are thus saved by the weekend before publicizing any fateful numbers.
The majority of multi-nationals have been working with a just-in-time inventory logistics. This is failing big-time. There is no buffer stock for even a minor interruption of a few weeks. Chinese suppliers will have a slow start-up as key people will not be available due to illness or death from the virus infection sweeping the country. If your quality inspector is dead, whatever products you produce cannot be shipped until the comrade is replaced.
The airlines have curtailed many flights to and from China. This has led a crash in the oil market with WTI price now at 45.79 -1.30 in overnight trading. The US oil and gas shale plays are bankrupt at these price levels. Outstanding debt a few years ago stood at about 250 billion USD (this should be about 300 billion by now but not confirmed). The US oil patch desperately needs a large war to drive prices back up to keep their companies afloat.
We will see soon how well the Basel 2 and 3 risk management accords save the banks from themselves. Expect more helicopter money from the Federal Reserve in copious quantities. What a great time for China to sell down their US treasury debt and blame it on the virus epidemic. Buy lots of pop-corn now as we may have to sit this show out at home (quarantine) for a few weeks.
Quite the opposite Larchmonter, a recession caused by covid 19 coronavirus pandemic will not hurt Trump at all. On the contrary, it will provide him with the excuse to blame it on an act of God or Chinese negligence instead of the fact the real reason is that a recession was inevitable irrespective of any pandemic. The West’s pump and dump economic policy of injecting debt sourced capital to keep boosting the economy and stock market (whether from Trump’s tax cut or from money printing) was due an implosion anyway.
Trump is master at deflection and blame shifting with his own people and culture. Trump’s opponents are incompetent and will lose the next election. If Trump catches any wind that China acted against his re-election, his revenge will be very severe.
The US will not cooperate with China, they will use this crisis to further kick China in the head and China is very badly hurt by this disaster: their factories are operating at 30% capacity any GDP growth they might publish showing positive growth will prove that chinese authorities lie and inflate their growth figures further damaging their already heavily damage reputation.
China is in no condition to confront the US, that is a fantasy: they are too vulnerable and dependent on the West.
The timing of this virus is very suspicious.
You really over-inflate the power of the West don’t you.
Come on guys. There is no corona recession and no corona disaster in China. What happens is a completely normal correction when the stock market is overbought.
When the market is oversold, we will be back to normal again in 1-2 month. its just a V. Down and up.
On COVID-19, In addition to your list, the jobs and employment reports for this Spring should be down. And when will Trump discontinue his rallies or at least perform in an enclosed Pope Mobile?
It is also reported that Turkey opened the border for 72 hrs allowing Syrian refugees (and other sorts) to cross from Idlib and head toward Europe. There has long been a threat by the Turks to allow Syrian refugees to pass to Europe. What’s behind this now? What is Erdogan angling for?
“… So far the Turkish military operation has been rather unsuccessful and limited. …”
Unfortunately, that has apparently changed. The Turks & their Takfiri recruits have now recaptured Saraqib – thus cutting the Damascus-Aleppo highway M5.
Fall Of Saraqib: Syrian Army Retreats Under Turkish Strikes In Eastern Idlib
https://southfront.org/fall-of-saraqib-syrian-army-retreats-under-turkish-strikes-in-eastern-idlib/
What will happen next, is anyone’s guess.
Yandex translation: https://www.gazeta.ru/army/news/2020/02/27/14089873.shtml
The source denied the capture by Syrian rebels of Sarakibe
27.02.2020 | 13:51
Approval of the Syrian rebels that they recaptured the strategic town of Sarakibe of government forces, is unreliable.
On Thursday the Russian military source.
Earlier Thursday, Syrian rebels, supported by the Turkish military, said they regained control of the Sarakibe, which is the first significant turn of events around the onset of the Syrian army, supported by Russia, and which brought quick success.
Russian military source denied this version of events and said that Syrian government forces have successfully repelled a rebel attack on Sarakibe.
The terrorists are fast to the Media. They tend to be wrong. And then, they tend to be dead.
Always wait a day or two on such battle news.
Colonel Cassad tonight has the latest:
2. The militants occupying the Sarakibe and the village of al-Taraba, during the day when you could open support of the Turks to push CAA out of Dudycha, Diabase and Kafr Battikha. The evening rolled counter-attack of Syrian army with heavy support videoconferencing.
As a result, in the evening reported 32 dead soldiers of the Turkish army during the attack on the convoy of the Turkish army / in another version at the command post (there are estimates that the death toll was about 50, the total number of dead and wounded over 100). As with many victims among the Turks killed militants, the question is certainly interesting.
Turkey claims that during the campaign in Idlib killed 1709 soldiers of the Syrian army.
Russia has rejected Turkish helicopters in entering into Syrian airspace so that they could take the wounded, so the 300’s were taken by the militants and civilians.
So it seems the Turks got their troops killed in this battle for Sarikibe. 33 dead.
Doesn’t sound like a terrorist victory.
@ Larchmonter445
If that is indeed so, means South Front is not a very reliable source about Syrian events, which would be surprising indeed. The газета.ру brief article refers to a “российский военный источник” (“Russian military source”), but it does not provide any name or title (or a link).
In either case: the actual situation will be known very soon.
Also my understanding, Larchmonter.
Syrian Girl reported that Saraqib was temporarily occupied by rebels. It wasn’t a major or decisive victory for the terrorists at all.
https://mobile.twitter.com/Partisangirl/status/1232915239240224768
Could have been a tactical move on behalf of the Syrian government forces…
“The Turks & their Takfiri recruits have now recaptured Saraqib…”
Thereby putting themselves right into the meat grinder.
Getting info that Peskov refutes the meeting on the 5th, saying that Putin has other duties to attend, he is however willing to attend meeting with Turks and Iran as per Astana agreement in the near future.
So, Putin holds his ground. Excellent news. What business is it of Germany and France to adjudicate in Syria?
Could you please provide the link?
The 2 Clowns Ferkel and Macaroni are only there for their amusement…
Putin Not Currently Planning Talks With Erdogan in Istanbul on 5 March – Kremlin
https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/202002271078418016-putin-not-currently-planning-talks-with-erdogan-in-istanbul-on-5-march—kremlin/
“Putin’s plans do not currently include such a meeting”, Peskov told reporters. “The president has other working plans for 5 March,” the Kremlin spokesman added, when asked whether Putin planned to travel to Istanbul on 5 March at all.”
At 7pm, on 2/28/20, Lenta.ru reported that a 3/5 or 3/6 meeting is in fact being negotiated:
https://lenta.ru/news/2020/02/28/meeting/
I mostly agree with Cassad’s idea. Tought and commented about this kind of “maskirovka” in a good spanish mil-related blog days ago (http://charly015.blogspot.com/2020/02/cual-es-el-proximo-objetivo-del-saa-y.html), and there I offered another thought: this may also be part of the turkish purge of internal NATO forces (including jihad armies), being expelled from Turkey to die in Syria, where they could be controlled and exposed to death either by insolation or steel rain. Russia could benefit from this, preventing the redeployment of such battle-hardened forces to Central-Asia, Magreb, etc.
As I write, syrians already achieved gains in south Idlib towards M4. If we are right, the bastion of Jisr al Choughour should fall.
I have serious doubts that Turks would sacrifice Takfiri gangs in Idlib. Wishful thinking. In any case, we won’t wait for o long to find out Sultan of swing plans.
Erdogan has overreached himself this time by arrogantly insisting that Syrian troops retreat from Syrian soil. He has consistently sided with terrorists throughout this conflict, and he has Syrian, Russian and Iranian blood on his hands.
We all remember Turkey’s downing of the Russian Sukhoi Su-24M in November 2015. Putin at the time described Turkey as “accomplices of terrorists” – which they were and continue to be.
We do not seek or advocate war, but Russia and Iran must stand with Syria to ensure that this puffed up sultan gets the slap across the face that he deserves.
Iran knows a thing are two about slapping these arrogant asses across the face – just ask the Americans who are still suffering from “head trauma”.
Selah
Live Updates: 33 Turkish Troops Killed by Airstrike in Syria’s Idlib
https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/202002271078422764-nine-turkish-troops-killed-under-fire-in-syrias-idlib-governor-of-hatay-province-claims/
Article 5 or ‘Oh my gosh’? What will US do after Turkish troops die in Syria strike
https://www.rt.com/usa/481865-turkey-washington-idlib-syria-nato/
“Oh my gosh,” was the response of US envoy to NATO Kay Bailey Hutchinson, when journalists told her about the airstrike on Thursday. “This is a new development. This is a big development,” she said, adding that “ Of course, everything is on the table.”
The israelis are equally thrilled about the prospects of a shooting war between Turkey and Syria and her allies and have stepped up their cowardly attacks on Syria:
Israeli helicopters strike targets near Golan, injuring at least 3 Syrian troops
https://www.rt.com/news/481861-israel-helicopters-syria-golan/
“Israeli helicopters have struck Syrian army positions in the Golan Heights, leaving at least three wounded, Syrian state media reported. The rocket attacks follow earlier reports of an Israeli drone strike in the same region.”
Meanwhile, back in Turkey:
Turkey in social media BLACKOUT amid fears of all-out war in Syria
https://www.rt.com/news/481862-turkey-social-media-blackout-syria/
“Twitter was the first to go, with national provider Turk Telekom shutting off access around 11:30 pm local time on Thursday. This was shortly after news broke that at least nine – the number has continued to rise since – Turkish soldiers were killed in Syria’s Idlib province.
This was followed by all other social networks, clustered by provider, according to multiple services monitoring internet outages across the globe.
Accounts of major media outlets remained active however, as they flashed updates about the alleged Syrian airstrike and the Turkish response – said by officials in Ankara to be air and artillery strikes against multiple “regime” targets.”
While this censorship could mean the Turks plan to attack, that isn’t the only possible reason they shut these services down. What appears certain, though, is that they don’t want the Turkish population getting information from sources other than official government sources and approved media outlets.
‘ What appears certain, though, is that they don’t want the Turkish population getting information from sources other than official government sources and approved media outlets.’
Agreed.
How ZioNazis work:
pumping up emotions with fake news that a conflict is about to happen, practically forcing Erdogan to make a move (he doesn’t want) or he appears weak/incompetent and the population is rallied up to protest and demand his head.
The March 5th meeting with mutti and le petite Jupiter is to have them sign on to moar refugees. Erdogan is just stallling till he gets a go-ahead.
“Israeli helicopters have struck Syrian army positions in the Golan Heights, leaving at least three wounded, Syrian state media reported. The rocket attacks follow earlier reports of an Israeli drone strike in the same region.”
Ah, the trademarked stab in the back.
What do we know about the leaders involved?
Erdogon always tries to play off both sides from the middle. Its a position that was well-used during the USA-Soviet Cold War, as many Non-Aligned leaders played the game of playing the two powers off of each other. Erdogon is now doing the same with USA-Russia.
From previous crisises, we know that Putin is the martial arts expert. He takes his time, and shows patience. Putin waits for an opponent to put themselves off balance by their own attacks, then he spots the opportunity and strikes quickly and hard. In past crisises, Putin is criticized by his uber-patriots for doing nothing, until he acts, then everyone praises his wisdom and leadership.
It is highly unlikely that anyone in the Russian government or military actually trusted the Turks and Erdogon. They would know that when Erdogon appears to be on your side, he’s only playing a role to what he perceives to be his (personal) advantage.
Russia prefers that Turkey be an ally, and gains advantages when that is true.
Russia has in the past made if very clear to Turkey that their alliance is not indispensable to Russia and that Russia can live without it. Last time Russia put the economic screws onto Turkey, Turkey folded a few months later. Turkey’s economy is weaker now than it was then. US economic warfare in recent months has weakened the Turkish economy. We know Russia can hurt Turkey economically. And it is an open question with Wall Street in a power dive how much resources the Imperial Empire can and will devote to Turkey. I haven’t looked, but “emerging markets” tend to get clobbered when the money retreats to safe havens.
Does anyone want to be in a position where they have to rely on the Americans to keep their word? This is true for Trump personally and the Wall St, Pentagon and CIA sectors.
Putin reportedly saved Erdogon’s life in the past when the CIA plot tried to kill him as part of the coup.
Does anyone want to be in a position where they have to assume that the Russians are bluffing?
The Turks never stopped helping their head chopping buddies. At this time, Turk Army and HTS are commingled and fighting side by side against SAA. The advances that SAA made early this week were negated in one night of heavy Turk arty bombardments and attacks against SAA which forced them out of Saraqib and the surrounding area with substantial losses of men and equipment.
With HTS embedded with Turk army, they have the usual plentiful access to Turk/NATO weapons and use them. At least three, and probably more, Stingers were fired at Russia aircraft and at least one was videoed being fired from inside, actually balcony of the HQ building, of a Turk ‘observation point’. None were successful but the very fact that missiles are being fired at Russian Sukhois from inside Turk installations says all.
Russia seems to have a number of red lines which if crossed bring instant retribution against Turk Army and HTS (the ‘good’ terrorists). Also, it seems that every two or three days another ‘agreement’ is reached with the Turks to basically knock it off and behave, which the Turks never adhere to. This last violation of the ‘red line’ resulted in the obliteration of HTS HQ in Idlib City, which was full to the rafters with Turk officers and operatives waging war in cooperation with HTS and everybody and their grandmother knew who was there. All bit the big one and are now worm food, apparently in excess of 100 Turk senior officers among them.
I have no idea how this current escalation will pan out, but I have no doubts that Erdogan is doing exactly what he’s told to do by Foggy Bottom. Any other scenario just doesn’t make sense.
Auslander
Author
Never The Last One, paper back edition. https://www.amazon.com/dp/1521849056 A deep look in to Russia, her culture and her Armed Forces, in essence a look at the emergence of Russian Federation.
An Incident On Simonka paperback edition. https://www.amazon.com/dp/1696160715 NATO Is Invited To Leave Sevastopol, One Way Or The Other.
Aus, I agree with you. Russia has been patient for a long time, while carefully watching Turkey’s erratic behavior. Erdo, was pretending to play along, until his house of Islamist house of cards started to fall apart. We can see Erdo lost couple of serious elections in Constantinople and Ankara and now he is throwing himself all over the place: Syria, Kurds, Cyprus, Libya, etc. Greek media reported that just few days ago in a speech he threatened to get 4-5 nukes from Pakistan and use them against his enemies. Pakis seem to support him, and it sounds like they do not mind sharing with their Islamist friends. I also, understand that the current Paki president confirmed his support for Erdo.
So, it appears that Russia decided to slap him gently in order to get him to fall in and play nice. Things will unravel in near future. I do not think he will, therefore we need to ready for some hot events.
Things are already unraveling fast, the fighting in Idlib area is strong but off and on, and as a result casualties on both, or should I say all three, sides are mounting fast. Turkey is now flat out aligned with HTS and being open about it. I’m sure this did not sit well with Moskau and it is my understanding that Erdogan called Putin this morning. Unlike Foggy Bottom where it seems 100 colonels listen in when President Trump makes a call, I can guaranty you that is not the case in Moskau. At any rate, we’ll see if the chat between President Putin and President Erdogan makes a difference. My gut feeling is it won’t and I still say Erdogan is doing what Foggy Bottom tells him to do.
As an aside, this foolishness Erdogan wants of Germany and France joining in the ‘peace process’ again points to DC pulling the strings.
Auslander
Asking for Germany (who fears what Erdogan can do to flood EU with refugees and terrorists) and France (who desperately wants to get back into the Levant as a relevant power) shows the desperation Erdogan feels. His own power would be diminished and he would become marginalized.
Eventually, he would be eliminated. Who needs him? Who needs a weak Turkey in NATO?
The man is playing with borrowed chips already.
He has one hope. Putin.
VVP has to fashion a face-saving, ass-saving solution for Erdogan.
Assad will want more revenge for the Turk attack on so many Syrian targets.
And if the Turks keep feeding drones and MANPADS to the terrorists the Russian Military will settle all these issues. It won’t be with words and piece of paper to sign.
Erdogan could soon receive a bigger disaster.
“VVP has to fashion a face-saving, ass-saving solution for Erdogan”.
LOL Larchmonter!
At this late stage, Erdogan will probably have to settle for one or the other. My bet is on saving ass and losing face.
Btw, Turkey has the second largest army within NATO. They must be really desperate if they are asking for help from France or German, as even combined, those two countries have fewer military personnel than Turkey.
Putin saved his nether regions once already when Erdogan was informed of the coup against him. However, it’s obvious that the gratitude for that butt saving gesture is short lived, plus I’m sure that VVP had reasons for keeping Erdogan in power, if none other than any violent change of government usually has the ‘splatter effect’, in other words like a cow voiding her digestive tracts on a flat rock the kaka splatters everyone and everything in the general area.
Auslander
Larch, as for the flood: It seems that Greek government (or maybe Greek military has put it’s foot down) decided to finally act against Erdo’s foolishness and try to stop the next flood of his goons.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/greece-deploys-50-naval-vessels-air-support-after-turkey-opens-gates-refugees.
This pseudo-refugee crises is actually very interesting, and let me explain:
As per Liberal laws (UN) the refugee (real one) must be processed by the country of entry (Turkey in this case), where their claim for refugee status must be examined. Then the real claimants must must be processed and issued proper papers (Turkish) and allowed to stay in the country of entry. As it happens none of those pseudo-refugees have been issued any papers and they flood Greece, Italy, and Spain without any ID.
Interestingly enough, Turkey does not seem to send any of them to Bulgaria or Rumania, as Greece is Turkey’s primary target. Mind you the ones flooding Italy and Spain (Spain and Italy finally decided to act and stop the nonsense) were/are coming from northern Africa mostly Libya. Again, interestingly enough most of them are from the Sudan, why? Why aren’t they processed by the countries of entry, as per International Law, and they move on to Spain and Italy “paperless”. Can you see the pattern here?
that red line should have been that ANY Turkish military IN Syria will not be tolerated,instead the Turks were allowed to send in thousands of soldiers and armour,on top of that Russia sold S-400s to the Turks,if this comes to a showdown with Russia i just hope those s-400s are not used against Russian jets,those turks should have been hit hard as soon as they crossed the border.
@E,
I am sure that he will not be able to use them against Russia, this is why he is asking US for Patriots.
He needed S-400 against Greece.
He will get the ‘export’ version which is nowhere near as capable as the domestic version even though the export version is better than anything CehSha or anyone else has. However, the units are not complete and the training of the Turk crews if very far from complete, so at the moment Erdogan has some expensive flower pots with wheels.
Auslander
I do neither believe in a negotiated solution, nor in a (political and/or military) retreat of Erdogan. One may say that Erdogan, for some time, has rather cleverly used the changes in the International balance of power, collaborating simultaneously with Russia and remaining NATO member. However, Erdogan did this in an aggressive manner, in Syria, in Iraq, in Libya, around Cyprus. He has no more friends and is increasingly under pressure in his country. I rather think that Erdogan’s days are numbered.
The biggest problem for Erdogan is Syria. Apparently, he is driven by an utterly hostile behavior against Syria, which is completely irrational. On the other side, the Syrians have enough and their army is now strong and experimented enough to liberate the whole country.
Erdogan has not the ability of admitting a defeat. So, he will keep going ahead until he is stopped. And this is actually happening, in one way or another. The consequences for Turkey remain to be seen.
Perhaps the obvious solution is for Erdogan to disappear from the political scene. If that happened, Turkey could get a new government that would rule in the interests of Turkey and its citizens, rather than acting out insane fantasies of military glory.
Last time, apparently Russia saved Erdogan. I wonder if they have now decided that was an error…
The big question is whether Turkey has even worse people waiting to step up and cause trouble.
Turkish soldiers were with ‘terrorist groups’ when they were hit by Syrian military – Russian MoD
https://www.rt.com/news/481873-syrian-troops-conduct-attacks-on/
“Turkish troops were acting inside “combat units” with jihadist militants in Idlib province when they were targeted by a Syrian government airstrike on Thursday, Russia’s Defense Ministry said.
The airstrike was carried out when the Syrian Army was repelling a large-scale offensive by terrorist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), an offshoot of Al-Qaeda in Syria, inside the Idlib ‘de-escalation zone,’ the Russian military said on Friday.
Turkish servicemen inside the combat units of terrorist groups came under fire from the Syrian military on February 27 near the town of Behun.
The Defense Ministry said that the Russian Reconciliation Center for Syria was in constant contact with Ankara, “regularly” requesting and receiving information on the whereabouts of Turkish troops. And, according to the data submitted by Turkey, there were no Turkish soldiers near Behun when the Syrian Army was fighting terrorists there.
Turkish officials have slammed Damascus for the airstrike. Vice President Fuat Oktay warned that the Syrian “regime elements will pay a heavy price for this treacherous attack.”
It is not the first time that Russia has accused Ankara of failing to properly notify it and the Syrian government about the movement of Turkish military inside the Idlib “de-escalation zone.” Earlier this month, six Turkish soldiers were killed when their convoy came under fire west of Saraqib after they moved there “without informing the Russian side,” Moscow said at the time.”
In other words, Turkish soldiers were where they should not have been and the Turk military failed to disclose their position there, where they should not have been. The Turk troop casualties were the Turk military’s own fault.
well, interesting article but somewhat old.
1.- the jihadis and turks have taken Sarakib. Official sirian sources recognize this.
2.- there is an ongoing counterattack, but there is not much information about how it is going (they have been using this sarakib battle as a kill zone, where the jihadis are being killed quite effectively)
3.- the turks officially recognize about 30 deads, but social media were spaking about as much as 80 dead (before it was shut down this night, twitter, facebook etc) if the turks lose at least 30… how many jihadis are dead is a fair question, taking into account that both are totally intermingled now, Jihadis and Turk forces.
3.- the Turks are rabid, officials speaking about declaring war to syria (even russia) and Erdogan is goig to make some statements about now 11.00 Hours standard time.
4.- the russians are not going to have a meeting with Erdogan on March 5th (Putin have other things to do) this is official now.Not to mention France, Germany etc… wich are irrelevant in all this matter.
5.- Sirians and Russians are going to keep doing what they do for now. Where they stop might be of discussion, but at a minimun both Latakia-Aleppo and Damascus-Aleppo highways are going to be liberated.
sources: sana (official Syrian news agency) colonel cassad (both his livejournal and Telegram), Canthama (specially twitter)
My oppinion is that after that (liberation of this Highways and adjacent zones, to make the secure ( wich will include Sarakib and Jis as Shugur) they will stop the offensive and consolidate their gains.
Off course rinse and repeat in some months, after all of Idlib is “sanitized” and liberated.
Later on the Kurds will have what they deserve.
Dear Mr Delusionist
while Saker was busy giving his time to writing this article – with all channels open I’m sure – after it was done and ever posted (?) this new strike happened….
I agree with you – it is an interesting article for many many reasons not just the up-to-the-minute strikes of a war.
I wish people would say thank you to Saker, and not put down a fabulous aritcle-writer by calling his new article ‘old’ ..
…think if Saker got discouraged and stopped writing !.
Maybe some here would not lose ? I know I sure would lose all sense of ‘wtf is going on in the world?’
The precedent has been set in the Golan and Turkey has simply followed the zionist land grab. Erdogan sees it as a free for all to take what ever he can. I find it very hard to believe that there can ever be a peaceful solution while Israel is openly permitted to attack Syria at will and the US still infests the oil fields. This war is a very long way from over and wont be until Russia/China stands up to Israel/US aggression. Maybe Russia is playing a slow attritional burn out for the US, the problem is Israel wants regional mayhem and balconisation for the greater Israel project and they dictate US policy. The Turkey problem could be resolved by Syrian forces aligning with the Kurds as the US has betrayed the Kurds and they have a common Turk enemy. Why on earth is a Golan annexation any more acceptable than an Idlib annexation. Until all annexation from Syria is reversed and punished severely there can be no peace and who will police this certainly not the blind to justice UN. The middle east is a cauldron of danger to world peace we need a strong decisive world leader to step up now.
One interesting aspect of this campaign is that it fully confirms what most of us already knew: even by 1944, the day of the armoured vehicle was reaching its end. Tanks and APCs have their uses, of course; but against an enemy with control of the air, they are merely death traps.
An antique T34-76 or Sherman VVSS will kill you just as dead as the most modern Leopard or T90 or Abrams. I doubt we’ll live long enough to see the end of armored war chariots. To kill them and negate their value one has to have control of the air, which Erdogan, and in reality SehSha, does not have. A handy supply of dual charge thermobaric anti tank fire and forget missiles is also nice to have lying around in the general area.
Auslander
My point was that, as the Turks do not have control of the air over Idlib, sending their armour in to attack the SAA is suicidal.
Drone footage shows Turks pounding Syrians:
https://twitter.com/anadoluagency/status/1233337381094350850
Can someone comment on this ?
if these are SAA, they definitely suffer big casualties.
Tass reports that Putin and Erdogan had a telephone conversation today:
The presidents hashed over the implementation of the agreements on Syria’s Idlib, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov informed
MOSCOW, February 28. /TASS/. Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan have held a phone call on Friday, during which they hashed over the implementation of the agreements on Syria’s Idlib, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov informed.
“Today, a phone call between presidents Putin and Erdogan has been held at the initiative of the Turkish leader. The talks were detailed. They discussed the need to do everything possible to implement the original agreements on the de-escalation zone [in Idlib],” he said.
https://tass.com/politics/1124833
So, it looks like Erdogan went crying to Putin again and Putin said .. Nyet!
What is happening to the oil that is under US occupation? Some of that or all must be transiting Turkey? Is Erdogan being pressured that the flow will disappear? I don’t know – these are only questions.
————–
Again from Tass just in –
Putin, Erdogan can meet soon — Kremlin
https://tass.com/politics/1124849
————–
And again Tass just in –
Turkish aircraft, artillery hit over 200 Syrian army targets in Idlib
https://tass.com/defense/1124781
Turkish aircraft, artillery hit over 200 Syrian army targets in Idlib
You forgot to highlight this important qualifier: “Turkish aircraft, UAVs and artillery have hit over 200 targets of the Syrian army in Syria’s Idlib, Defense Minister Hulusi Akar said on Friday.” This is not to deny that there is a fighting there and both sides sustain casualties, but in related news I just slayed 5, no, 7, dragons.
You are of course always welcome Andrei The Dragonslayer :-)
I linked some headlines from Tass very early as they appeared. The experienced co-slayers here would actually go and read what is linked to :-) The ones that do not, well …. we will send those for re-education – camp called, the Fibbing of Erdogan!
(Just kidding for a moment)
https://southfront.org/turkey-releases-footage-of-strikes-on-syrian-troops-in-idlib/
Sickening. So what happens next? Is this a total betrayal of Astana Sochi …whatever?
I personally think the invasion of Syria by Turkey backed by NATO is next. The Turkish president is now at a rock bottom and this is an excellent opportunity for the US to come and bail him out. NATO, with the Turkish armed forces and terrorists will seek to destroy Russian and Syrian armed forces. Use the S-400 against Russian and Syrian warplanes, possibly closing the Bosphorus for Russian ships and remove, once and for all, Russian assets and bases in Syria. A good time for Israel to invade from the south, while the US-aligned Kurds staying put or attack Deir ez-Zor. Those videos of Syrian soldiers being bombed to pieces, unfortunately to me, seems to be the sign of dark things to come.
Turkey is part of NATO and will always be. Russia seems to be a tool or special emergency button to temporarily align or visit, to get a better deal or position when negotiating within NATO or the US. Syria and Russia need to be fully prepared for such a scenario, as China is currently busy with you-know-what.
S 400 units sold to Turkei are not complete and the training of the Turk crews is far from complete. As I’ve mentioned elsewhere, the Turks get the export version, which is still more effective than anything CehSha has but it ain’t nowhere near what the domestic version is. Mother ain’t that stupud.
Auslander
Sounds good but the latest news is that some Pantsir S1s were destroyed by Turkish drones, probably learning from the Israeli strikes. Seems Russia is leaving Syria direct responsibility for its air space and she isn’t doing well regarding drone strikes against AD assets. Grinding away of Syria’s AD could open the way for control of the air by Turkey, NATO and Israel.
Be careful of believing any source, especially ‘twitter’ et al. My info on the Pantsir is it was destroyed in Libya quite some time ago, as in months. I haven’t bothered to ascertain if Libya even has Pantsir, but there is a vast amount of scuttlebutt going around. One has to separate the wheat from the chaff, which is sometimes difficult and sometimes easy. Trolls are everywhere and are dumping a plethora of questionable info, even on a veteran’s military forum I frequent. All are ‘LOOK! LOOK! MORE SYRIAN TANKS, ARTY DESTROYED’ etc etc etc. It’s February in Syria, just like everywhere, and in February in Syria you don’t have clumps of trees hiding tanks with full summer leafy foliage.
Auslander
The Pantsir was on a MAN chassis (i.e. it is UAE-owned), so the footage is from Lybia.
If Turkey closes the Bosphorus for Russian ships, then Russia closes the Bosphorus for ALL ships. Russia is quite capable of mining the straits, and removing mines is a time intensive task.
And quite possibly close Black Sea for all Turk, Romanian, Bulgarian and orc ships and canoes. Whether CehSha likes it or not, Black Sea is a Russian lake.
Auslander
Turkey’s situation is extremely precarious, both politically, geopolitically, and militarily (in regards to Syria). The old rule of geopolitics dictates that you should not alienate all the key players at the same time, which is exactly what Erdogan seems to be doing over the last few years.
He’s alienated the Europeans, who, truth be told, are irrelevant as players on the global stage and especially irrelevant when it comes to the political process in Syria, but Europe plays an important role for Turkey and good relations with Europe were a constant of Turkish foreign policy up until Erdogan. He’s also earned the distrust of Washington, the traditional patron of Kemalist Turkey. We all know that Erdogan’s relationship with Russia is rocky, to put the least, and the Russians don’t trust him a bit. Russian-Turkish cooperation in Syria and the ME is purely a matter of necessity. Erdogan, on the other hand, is an opportunist, his foreign policy adventurist and wildly unpredictable.
The newest confrontation with Russia has the potential to inflict a lot of damage to Turkey, militarily and politically. Turkey is a much weaker position than it had been prior to the coup in 2016, Erdogan has made all the key players mad, has opened up too many fronts and put a lot of strain on the country which will inevitably cause consequences on the long run, but possibly already in the near future. Erdogan’s power base at home is also showing signs of weakening and he seems to be losing the support and confidence of many Turks.
An internal crisis will be looming over Turkey. Erdogan has put too much strain on the country, he overextended his resources and overestimated his influence, alienated both the West and Russia and earned everyone’s distrust. At some, it will inevitably come to haunt him and Turkey.
https://theduran.com/turkey-now-claims-syrias-idlib-province-as-turkish-territory/
Eric Zuesse article
Well that would be a big mistake.
“Don’t do unto others what you don’t wish upon yourself”
Somehow, all the other players Syria, Russia, Iran, Iraq, the Kurds, heck, even the West, could all agree to just take a bite off of turkey (pun intended). I mean, the Kurds are nomads anyways, so all the Kurds from the ‘neighborhood’ could just move to Turkey and split off. Such an outcome noone would object.
The phrase “those whom the Gods would destroy…..”.leaps ineluctably to mind.
The title: “Turkey Now Claims Syria’s Idlib Province as Turkish Territory” does not match the content. Erdogan said “We will not step back in Idlib. We are not the guests in this realm, we are the hosts,”. I don’t know if this difference is due to the duran selecting the title or Zuesse choosing it, but regardless, it is exaggerating what Erdogan claimed, since claiming to be hosts in a speech is not a formal claim to a territory.
Latest from Col Cassad – Machine translation. (Bear in mind that we have to take everything with some caution at the moment).
“About the development of the Idlib crisis.
1. Putin and Erdogan had a telephone conversation about what was happening. The call took place on the initiative of “friend Recep”.
2. Lavrov today officially expressed his condolences to Turkey on the death of the Turkish military and said that Russia adheres to the Sochi agreements, but there can be no compromises with terrorists. Also, Russia does not think that the NATO charter is applicable to the situation in Idlib in any way.
3. Judging by the statements of Turkish media and officials, the discussion within the NATO framework will revolve around point 4. Despite the condemnation of Russia and Syria, so far NATO mainly demands simply to stop the offensive and de-escalation.
4. the UN and EU structures call for de-escalation and the inadmissibility of pushing events to scenarios that could lead to a major international military conflict..
.
5. In assessing the circumstances of the strike, the sides split up – Russia insists that after the strike on the Turks, the fire was stopped and assistance was provided for the evacuation of the wounded. The Turks insist that after the military strike, the attacks continued after the ambulances arrived.
6. 6. All military and diplomatic contacts between Moscow and Ankara remain in place. Both as part of consultations about what is happening and as part of the routine work of de-escalation mechanisms.
7. The calm position of Iran, which has not made any loud statements on the situation, is noteworthy, although Tehran is, along with Russia, Assad’s main ally.
What can be noted.
In the morning, Syria’s war was not declared and martial law was not officially introduced, although they promised (some members of the Turkish parliament have already called on the government to either act or resign). Turkey actually took a postponement until the completion of consultations with NATO.
Russia makes it clear that it does not seek a direct military confrontation with Turkey, but at the same time it is pushing the point that the attack on terrorists should continue.
All this puts Erdogan in a very difficult position, especially since in addition to Syria, bad news comes from Libya – yesterday there were 7 to 10 Turkish soldiers killed, and today the Haftar troops fired up to 50 missiles at Mitiga airport, aiming at the Turkish infrastructure – Hok SAM positions, barracks, ammunition depot and hangar for UAVs. Erdogan, in fact, drove himself into an extremely narrow solution space where he had to either raise his stakes or look for opportunities to dip out of extremely dangerous scenarios.
The fighting in Idlib, however, continues, both in the Saraqib area and north of the Al-Ghab Plain.”
“some members of the Turkish parliament have already called on the government to either act or resign”
Well well well what did RATM write @12:15am… Worth repeating over and over again
How ZioNazis work:
pumping up emotions with fake news that a conflict is about to happen, practically forcing Erdogan to make a move (he doesn’t want) or he appears weak/incompetent and the population is rallied up to protest and demand his head.
The fighting indeed continues:
“On the night of 28 February, the Turkish army struck blows to positions of the Syrian army in Idlib and destroyed a convoy of government troops. The Syrian military lost complexes “Beech” and “Armor”, 23 tanks, the same field and self-propelled guns, and five helicopters.”
https://lenta.ru/news/2020/02/28/kremlin/
I read the news, and it was a statement from a Turkish official. Hardly trustworthy, as the Turks need to appear to act tough. Statements like ‘1700 SAA soldiers’ and ‘200 SAA targets’ hit make me laugh. (Both ‘facts’ taken from comments above)
Extract from
https://southfront.org/turkey-has-fought-russia-16-times-in-the-past-will-do-it-again-if-need-be-erdogan-foreign-affairs-advisor/
“On February 28th, Mesut Hakki Casin, an adviser to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that Turkey had “fought Russia 16 times in the past, we will do it again.”
Mesut Hakki Casin, a professor at Istanbul’s Yeditepe University and a member of the foreign affairs board that advises Erdogan, said 25 million Muslims live in Russia.
He said Russia will be “dismembered from within,” according to a tweet posted by Ahval.”
“Mesut Hakki Casin, an adviser to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan”
Some a-hole tweeted something. So what?!? Hmm why am I thinking of the color orange?
“He said Russia will be “dismembered from within,”
The combined West couldn’t achieve that, but some ex-bus-conductor (Erdogan) will?
And
http://www.alaraby.co.uk/english/amp/news/2020/2/11/erdogan-ally-says-turkey-should-prepare-to-invade-damascus
“A prominent ally of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has called on Turkey to ready itself to capture Damascus after Syrian regime fire killed a dozen Turkish soldiers over the past week.
“The Turkish nation should plan to enter Damascus and destroy the oppressors if necessary,” said Devlet Bahceli, leader of the ultra-nationalist Nationalist Movement Party (MHP).
“Burn Syria, destroy Idlib and damn Assad,” he told parliament on Tuesday during a party meeting.”
It does seem to me that Erdo has become more emboldened since meeting up with Zelensky……
The wise choice is to make a deal with Turkey for some syrian territory (we are talking a small area on a map anyway inside the m5 & m4. Why?
1. Russia will not be able to defend syria shoot at turkey troops
2. Syria is many times weaker and can loose big maybe (even allepo if things get really bad)
3 Russia can be blocked from bospherous and Iraqi airspace by US and wouldnt be able to re-supply anyway
So, my friend Paul2, would your country be willing to surrender 10% of it’s territory for ‘peace’ in a war of foreign aggression that caused half a million dead and wounded and total destruction of 80% of said country? Mine won’t.
Auslander
Would you let a stranger move into your house and use a part of it?
Turkey needs to GTFO of Syria completely.
Turkish army staying in Syria is nothing but further destabilization of Syria, life line for their terrorist puppets.
War will never stop until last Turkish soldier leaves Syria.
Astana agreement was a plain stupidity allowing Turkey to freely infiltrate Syria with thousands of troops.
Just saying as a reminder:
Best to keep in mind on this situation that nitenyaahoo, the master of creating chaos with his american lackies, faces an election early next week. Chaos and hyper-threats are his favorite methods to keep power.
At this time, it is not evident as to what he or pompass could or would do to exaserbate the situation but confident that they are closely considering and monitoring. Niten is always present in the background in the ME like the plague that he is.
Perhaps no one wants an escalation – with apocalyptic consequences: avoiding it is the challenge.
https://www.ghostsofhistory.wordpress.com/
“Again, Turkey is in a bad position. For one thing, the Syrians and, even more so, the Russians control the airspace above Idlib.”
It does not looks like. Turks have just used airforce to devastate some Syrian position. From videos we can clerly see, quite a lot SAA died.
I can already see, Syria will never have Idlib province, because Russians are not serious. It’s over.
Some might say that the reason of this is a fear of nuclear war, well somehow Turks do not fear it.
Syrian Air Defences Down Turkish Drone That Targeted Gov’t Positions in Country’s North – MoD
https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/202002271078421814-syrian-air-defenses-down-turkish-drone-that-targeted-govt-positions-in-countrys-north—mod/
“The Russian military announced on Thursday evening that Syrian air defences downed a Turkish attack drone that had violated Syrian airspace to carry out strikes against government positions in Idlib’s Maarzaf area.
Speaking in a daily briefing, the head of the Russian center for Syrian reconciliation, Rear Admiral Oleg Zhuravlev, noted that Ankara continues to violate the agreements reached with Moscow on the Idlib de-escalation zone.
“In violation of the Sochi accords, the Turkish side continues to support the actions of illegal armed groups in the Idlib de-escalation zone by artillery fire and the use of reconnaissance and strike drones in attacks on the units of the Syrian armed forces,” Zhuravlev highlighted.”
I have seen no evidence that Turkey has carried out airstrikes using piloted aircraft or entered Syrian air space with same. In Idlib I mean. The video footage released by Turkey is from drones and it is not confirmed if it actually depicts recent Turkish attacks on Syrian forces or something else. Until these videos are substantiated, I give them the same credibility I give recent Turk reports of killing 1000+ Syrian soldiers. But then, I’m not a guardianista with a job to do.
There is no difference between piloted aircraft or drone, as long as carries the weapons.
Vot tak,
Wouldn’t it be funny if that video is actually RuAF eradicating some wahabi vermin?
BTW, just like the CIA is operating their own drones, I assume the equivalent turkish agency is doing the same. And they might be gulenists to boot. So when a Russian general accused Turkey of violating the agreements, it might be just to remind Erdogan to reign his 5th columnists in.
Btw, the incident with the Turkish artillery and how it was handled tells me that the chain of command is broken. It could be the Israelis, the pindos, whoever… give the orders to attack SAA positions over the NATO approved communication equipment. I think it’s called spoofing. Anyhow, as soon as the Russian notified the official Ankara, the artillery stopped (proper chain of command was reestablished). I mean, Erdogan didn’t even know they launched airplanes at him during the coup.
RATM
“Wouldn’t it be funny if that video is actually RuAF eradicating some wahabi vermin?”
LOL. Actually of the video’d attacks, the one showing a multple rocket launcher truck with the guy running away from it before the truck is hit, looks familiar.
Earlier I wrote we will find out if Turkey intends war in a few hours. Now we have the answer:
Live Updates: Russian Air Forces Did Not Carry Out Strikes in Area Where Turkish Servicemen Were Hit
https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/202002271078422764-nine-turkish-troops-killed-under-fire-in-syrias-idlib-governor-of-hatay-province-claims/
“12:39
Turkish Parliament Not Intending to Grant Gov’t Right to Declare War – Opposition Lawmaker
“We have not received any official request from the government to pass a document that would give it the right to declare war against Syria if necessary”, lawmaker Erdogan Toprak from the Republican People’s Party stated.
He also noted that the extraordinary session called for Saturday is intended to look into the circumstances surrounding the death of 33 Turkish soldiers in Idlib.
“During this session, we plan to discuss the situation in Syria’s Idlib and request clarification from the government regarding the attack which targeted Turkish troops and the forces that carried it out”.
As RATM wrote the zionazis are hellbent to get Turkey and Syria/Allies into a war. The zionazi-gay media is pushing Turkey to attack and falsifying news in a big way, as usual. Erdogan has made loud noises before only to quietly back off after the initial drama. It’s his style. It looks to me he will not invade and will back off. The Russians will arrange it so he can do so while saving face, as they have now done several times before. The net result is that more of Syrian territory will be freed of israeloamerican terrorists and returned back home to Syria.
BTW, keep checking that Sputnik Live Updates link. It is continuously updated as new developments occur.
For the sake of avoiding profanity, I’ll put it gently: Russia has screwed Turkey big time. That one downed jet in 2015 was repaid by Turkey and then some.
I’ll repeat: Russia has screwed (Erdogan’s) Turkey biiiig time.
Russians were 100% certain that there was no way for Turks to pacify terrorists in Idlib. They made a deal nonetheless, now holding Turkey to this deal while refusing any further negotiations. I love this about Russia’s policy. There is no renegotiating deals. Same as Minsk agreements.
In the meantime, terrorist attacks from Idlib continued. Turks may have honestly thought that they have the upper hand in Idlib. Russia then sold them S400, making Turks think Russia desperately needs them as friends. Oh, what a miscalculation due to delusions of grandiose.
Once the Russians convinced Turks that they are all cosy and buddies and whatever, they then encourages Turks to invade Kurdistan/Rojava. This was the goal all along – to baite Turks into invading Rojava. This was the way for Russiana and Syrians to send massive military reinforcements into northeast while the greatest army in the galaxy (or was it the Universe?) just stood by and watched impotently.
I am amazed by Russian brilliance. They actually made their enemies fight each other.
Now that the Syrians and Russians have establishes a legitimate military presence in NE Syria, there is no going back. The fact that Americans keep stealing Syrian oil is meaningless. Pirates will be pirates. Russians are maneuvering with the long term goal in mind, to kick the Americans out of Syria gradually and without the need to fight. It means nothing to Russia whether American pirates leave the dessert tomorrow or in 5 years. The point is, they will leave.
If it just so happens that pirates need encouragement to leave, that time will come when the rest of Syria is safe from terrorist threats and when S300 or S400 air defense systems are fully operational and covering all of Syria.
And now, for Erdogan. He was played, well, better put, he was screwed. I can only imagine his fury upon understanding that he was used in Rojava. As soon as Russians and Syrians established their presence in NE Syria, massive attack on Idlib started. It’s not like the same terrorist menace left Syrians and Russians alone during 2018 and 2019. No, they patiently defended and bided their time. Once the foothold was establishes in NE Syria, it is now time for Idlib.
In my unprofessional opinion, Afrin and areas north of Manbij will be on the menu after Idlib. So-called Rojava and Al-Tanf will be freed only after all other territories are safe. Or, if for some odd reason, pirates leave without needing encouragement.
But, why is Erdogan so invested into Idlib? Is he a salafist, Muslim Brotherhood kinda follower who cares about his fellow ideologues? Nah, he is a criminal and he would be marching at the head of a gay pride parade in Ankara if it suited his political and criminal intents.
Erogan has a far more practical problem on his hands. How man terrori…er, freedom fighters are there in Idlib? 20,000? 30,000? 50,000? To put it bluntly, they do not stand a chance against the SAA. However, these people will not make a last stand in Idlib. They will not fight to the death. They will run to the only place they can, to Turkey. Turks do not need 50,000 crazed wahabis and their spawn.
Furthermore, who lives in Idlib anyway? Who are all these women and children gettint bombed daily and sometimes hourly by Russians? Who are these millions of refugees? Reading the Syrian Perspective blog, I learned that a lot of those, indeed civilians, are not Syrians. Who knows just how many 100s of 1000s of Uighurs from China, and Turkic peoples from other stans in central Asia moved to Idlib and other parts of Syria, having been subsequently forced to evacuate to Idlib. In addition to Turkic invaders and squatters, there must also be many more tens of 1000s of foreigners living in Idlib.
Erdogan knows that all those people are Turkey-bound. What exactly is the Syrian state supposed to do with those civilians (terrorist spawn) when they liberate Idlib? Say that it’s cool, they’re Syrians now? Nope. Imprisonmemt, deportarion, or bloody retribution. That’s what’s coming.
So, in addition to 50,000 violent lunatics, Turkey would have to take and integrate 100s of 1000s of their spawn and poor migrants from central Asia. Not to mention that those people were promised something for their service in Idlib. Not like they would be happily living in Turkey, content in their squalor.
Erdogan has a hard choice to make. Lose Idlib, gain a bunch of furious refugees, and lose face. A gut punch to his pride. If he was smart, he would accept this humiliation and find a way to surmount it. Russians would help. It is not in their interest to exchange Erdogan for a CIA stooge.
His other choice is confrontation with Syria and Russia. I don’t see NATO starting WW3 over Idlib. They didn’t start WW3 when circumstances were far more favorable, they won’t do it now. They will, however, encourage Erdogan to do something so inconceivable as to start a confrontation with Ruasia. Americans are absolutely prepared to fight Russians until the last Turk. Then put the last one in a zoo.
In all seriousness, NATO will do their best to nudge Turks into this confrontation because they know Turks can’t win. They want to take this opportunity to stage a violent overthrow of Erdogan govment.
If Erdogan can see past illusions and delusions, he will accept humiliation. If he can’t, a spectacular defeat for his army is coming up, and with it, the end of his life.
The irony in all this that I forsee: if indeed Erdogan chooses stupidity over pragmatism, he will die. However, it won’t end with him. I can only imagine how many enemies seek vengeance against him. His family will be targets. Ironically, his family will most likely escape to Russia.
“The fact that Americans keep stealing Syrian oil is meaningless”
I would not say so. That oil is needed as never before.
There is a economic downturn bcs of the corona virus, which means there is a glut of oil on the market and the oil price is dropping.
The pindos sit on the Syrian oil but aren’t bringing it online (to market) bcs it would even enhance the glut, leading to even lower oil prices which would devastate the fracking industry back in the US.
Now that is some sweet irony.
The grand theft of Syria’s oil, by the US, is not at all meaningless, but it is clearly not the top priority, as of now. Assad has though, clearly indicated that the theft will be dealt with at some future point and I tend to believe that he means it.
@ FromSerbia
Please tell me you have a Twitter account….need follow you
great comment – thanks for insights FromSerbia – sounds very close to truth to me.
The Delusion Increases among Erdogan’s officials.
They are calling for Assad’s resignation.
https://sputniknews.com/analysis/202002281078431045-turkey-wants-bashar-assads-resignation–ex-turkish-fm/
Furthermore, they want to build “al Nusrastan” in Idlib. A city of terrorists and refugees, “The Turkish government will build housing on a 30-40 kilometre wide strip along the Turkish-Syrian border”, the politician says.
And off into the Cuckoo’s Nest of Erdogan’s Mind, “The Turkish president also recently talked about replacing Russian aviation patrols in the Syrian sky with Turkish aircraft.”
They must be smoking some very heavy dope to promulgate these fantasies.
The very idea spells out ‘solutions’ from a Nato think-tank or US supplied ‘tame terrorist’ saving maneuver
Please know the facts.
That ex-foreign minister is NOT Erdogan’s guy. Erdogan sacked him because he was (and apperently still is) a CIA asset responsible for the downing of the Russian SU-25 few years back. If I recall correctly, that lil shyster actually himself gave the go ahead to shoot the plane down, even bragged about it.
Russia and Turkey have had 12 wars in thepast several hundred years. the score is:
Russia 7
Turkey 3
Ties 2
The Sultan better not try anything or Vlad will send these guys to kick his butt:
https://i.etsystatic.com/5307484/r/il/b13fed/1128490217/il_fullxfull.1128490217_m0av.jpg
If the Syrian Government captures Idlib, there will probably be a flood of Takfiris into Turkey. This may be what Erdogan fears; it seems to me this will be a significant problem for Turkey.
I am just speculating here, but it occurs to me that a reason that Turkey might have recently involved itself in Libya is to channel the Takfiris away from Turkey and toward Libya.
What will the next game look like? The war between Iran and Israel or the war between Iran and the United States has already been planned, and there are many pro-Zionist officials in Iran. The result is clear and Iran will be destroyed. Israel achieves its goal. But Turkey’s game needs to be analyzed, and Turkey is trying to take advantage of these oppressed Muslims to lead Muslims, and Turkey may be able to influence and arm Muslims from Central Asia or the Mediterranean through Pan-Turkism and Pan-Islamism. Of course, since Turkey is also a country under the control of Zionist officials, their original purpose in protecting or helping these Muslims was to serve Zionism. Turkey, through Muslims, has formed a belt from Central Asia to the Mediterranean to prevent Russia from crossing that belt and attacking Israel. Israel will use such a good opportunity to destroy Iran and Pakistan, and then the Erdogan-led Islamic Army will wage war against Russia and China to serve the Zionists. But since Russia and China know this will happen, both countries will work together with the Zionists to maintain their existence. The result is that Israel will never consider keeping Muslim Turkey, but may allow China and Russia a little. That is why if some people stand on Erdogan’s side and oppose China, the result will eventually lead to the disappearance of Islam from the face of the earth due to the defeat of the Islamic army led by Erdogan. The children of Israel, deceived by false ideologies like Pan-Turkism, return to the truth and return to Israel. Christ will come. Israel will be the lord of the world. The United States will be devastated by the financial war.And will not be as powerful country as it used to be.
This seemingly fantasy story may be Israel’s plan in the Middle East.
Something is very fishy about this whole situation. Just what has the West offered Erdogan to get him to play ball? Oil land around Cyprus ? Whatever is being set up to happen I hope the Russians act decisively –no Mr. Nice Guys.
And ….in an election year
The Deep State is not running nuclear attack scenarios on Russia just for the heck of it.
https://futurism.com/the-byte/pentagon-simulated-nuclear-war-russia
Erdogan speaks to Assad via Frank Sinatra:
Erdogan is toast. Coming to think of it, the Ukronazis could well turn out to be his last, dependable allies against Russia and Syria. The West has already tried to overthrow him.
Hi Saker – what a great analysis – your sentence here –
The US also tried to instigate riots inside Iran, but they quickly petered out (as did the rumors about the US deliberately shooting down the Ukrainian airliner).
are you intimating that the rumour US shot down Ukrainian airline was put out to pasture because it was true ?
Since Andrei Martyanov visited us today, it’s an opportunity to link to his full take on the Turk Military and “Political” statements.
https://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2020/02/fog-of-war-or-schrodingers-erdogan.html
I visit his blog regularly. Not just informative, expert analysis, but very funny comments, acerbic and cultured.
And, he turned me on to Otava Yo!
Can someone explain to me what Turkey’s interests are in this intervention?
I think I have a pretty good grip on a lot of geopolitics, but this Turkey-Syria thing is an area where I am lacking in a good understanding.
Turkey used to rule over a chunk of Syria. They have Turkic people in a section along the border, so flesh and blood inside Syria. The Kurds want a nation of their own, carved out of Syria, Turkey and Iraq. Turkey doesn’t want that. So, Erdogan who is deep into Muslim Brotherhood ideology sponsored the terrorists in rebellion against Assad, along with Qatar, the bank for MB terrorism.
But, Erdogan is facing Israeli and US support of Kurds. That left him to ally with Iran and Russia,so, in essence he is on both sides of the war.
Once the coup failed and his ass was saved by Russia, he leaned on Russia, bought the S-400 thinking he’d need it against a possible air strike second coup attempt.
He has no friends, Qatar is not a military nation. In fact, when the US pushed hard via Saudis to overthrow Qatar, Erdogan had to save them. He has 10,000 troops inside Qatar to protect them.
Meanwhile, due to the war in Syria, Erdogan had to absorb 3.5 million refugees. That is very costly. He wants to put them back inside Syria in a zone he would own. Syria refuses such notions obviously.
That’s it in a nutshell. Erdogan wanted to be the regional hegemon. So does Iran, So does Israel. So did Saudi Arabia. In reality, Russia is “decisive” actor on the scene. Everyone goes to Moscow. Putin decides. The US disrupts and causes chaos. Israel lashes out, but is a big loser in Syria.
Economically, not ideologically or militarily, the East Med zone is loaded with underwater natural gas. Erdogan wants to be the big player. Greece, Israel, Cyprus and Egypt as well as Syria and Lebanon don’t want him to play that role.
Thanks.
I knew about the Kurds.
The rest really helps fill me in.
There is some strangeness goings on here. According to old news reports various terrorist were given the option of fighting to the death or moving to idlib, over the many months a collection of these fellows gathered and some were apparently crossing into turkey to terrorize that nation. Then the turks became frustrated about all this and took over a zone of syria as a buffer to reduce the #’s of people crossing the border.
Somehow after all the bad guys were gathered and an agreement of what to do about them failed, a war broke out, this is the best info I can make of the battle.
Yes, one did wondered all along why all those killers were being purposefully gathered into Idlib – those long convoys of Syrian government green buses – and what the end goal was.
Did the Syrians & allies intend to push them into Turkey at the end of the war? With Turkey going along with that, as he planned to use them in Libya and elsewhere?
As for his plan to settle them in Turkey-Syria border areas, that makes no sense. Must be something else going on there that escapes us…
Regarding Turkey’s claims of having killed scores of Syrian soldiers in Syria, if I were the SAA and its allies, I would take these claims literally and retaliate at least 1:1. Even better then if such claims are mostly Turkish propaganda. May Turkey stop this bullshit or perish on the pile of history.
Today’s (Friday, 28 February) report by South Front clarifies the present military situation in eastern Idlib. The salient points:
[1] “… By the start of the week, the Syrian Army had halted offensive actions east of Idlib city and redeployed most of its well-trained and motivated units from there to the southern part of the province. Troops and equipment of the 25th Special Forces Division and the 4th Armoured Division joined a ground operation to cut off the front salient south of the M4 highway. This weakened the army defence near Saraqib and Turkish-led forces immediately exploited this. …”
[2] “… Turkish-led forces developed their advance towards Saraqib capturing the villages of Salihiya, Afis and entering the town of Saraqib itself. By the morning of February 27, they had gained full control over Saraqib and continued their advance. The M5 highway, which Damascus had officially declared reopened, was once again cut off. …”
[3] “… The fall of Saraqib demonstrated disorganization, an apparent lack of morale and the failure of the fortification efforts by Syrian troops remaining in the area. Pro-government sources also blamed Russia for the lack of close air support during the fighting. At the same time, pro-militant sources reported dozens of Russian air-strikes on their positions. The villages of Dadikh, Jawbas and Kafr Battikh fell into the hands of Turkish-led forces after Saraqib. Al-Qaeda propaganda claims that the goal of the Turkish-led push is to retake Maarat al-Numan. …”
[4] “… It’s unlikely that the situation can be turned to favour of the Syrians without additional reinforcements from the 25th Special Forces Division and other battle-hardened units. Right now, the Syrian military is redeploying its elite units to the area and preparing for a large counter-attack. …”
[5] “… It should be noted that the Turkish gains in eastern Idlib took place amid the Syrian Army’s rapid advance to the south. [my emphasis] In the period from February 23 to February 28, government troops have taken control of over 30 villages and towns, including Kafr Nabel and deployed within striking distance from al-Barah, the last large militant stronghold on the way to the M4 highway. Turkish-led forces demonstrated no real resistance in the area because they threw most of their manpower and equipment towards Saraqib. …”
[6]“… Technically, the Syrian military liberated a much larger area than it lost during the week. [my emphasis] However, the loss of Saraqib is a painful strategic setback that undermines the Syrian Army control over the M4-M5 crossroad and limits its manoeuvrability along the front-line area in eastern Idlib. …”
[7] “… Furthermore, the threat of a new larger war in the region is increasing. …”
https://southfront.org/syrian-army-offensive-in-greater-idlib-results-of-february-24-28-2020/
“but in reality are working hand in hand to disarm the Takfiris and exchange territory.”
So Putin (“the fate of Syria is to be determined by the Syrians” and “national integrity is sacrosanct”) is prepared to throw away his whole integrity for the benefit of Erdogan?
Sure, just like war on Iraq was about Husseins WMDs and COIVID-19 was developed by China to attack Chinese and Iranians.
Hey don’t forget Italians too!
Allegedly, the corona virus claimed the lives of 2 Italian men over 80 and a woman with cancer.
It’s viral. It’s global. Its gonna get ya. Be scared!!!!!!!!!!!
;D
Erdogan owes his live to the Russians (coup), why shouldn’t this be a played out scenario by Turkey and the Russians? They are nicely clearing up idlib, whitout US interference, lost of blabla military dead patriots et. Putting full pressure on the EU, real refugees can flee to relatives into liberated Syria, the bandits can only flee to EU. All cleaned up in a few months or so. Next stop f**k up Lybia, Israe,l Kurds etc, and make Erdogan the gas king, with the Allseas pipeline.
appearance and meaning…that which appears and what does it mean. Turkey is acting with support of the usa and nato. of course deflections, dishonesty and such tend to work on the weak-minded. the western deep state is of course calling the shots. such is the desire of real fascism. Israel is but another puppet in the long line of deep state puppets the west has used since before world war two. what does it all mean? nothing. same game, new year. total control of the world and planet earth is the desire of the fascist. as it has been for centuries. but, those resisting just need to play the waiting game. as fascism cannot go into orbit for the next 500 years. the big step will be when people start attacking more directly usa troops. the stock markets wobbling is being blamed on a bunch of corona beers, but the reality is that other reasons are feeding this issue. it would not surprise me if we are now seeing the economic fall of the west. the military fall will not be far behind. as the latter is a serious cause of the downfall of the former!
America must have some serious dirt on Erdogan to compel him into antagonizing Russia (and Iran and Syria) with this brazen aggression in support of the rebranded Al-Queda jihadists in Idlib and elsewhere.
Erdogan is committing economic, geopolitical, and military for Turkey hara-kiri with this aggression.
And it is America that benefits most from conflict between Turkey and the Russian-led bloc in the Middle East, as it will sabotage Eurasian integration, which America is rabidly hostile towards.
The turks will never be accepted as members in the EU.
The RUssians and consequently syrians can for sure contain the Kurds within syria – and Damascus has no interest in freeing a piece of land to any kurdish sovereignty state- and so
Erdogan or any turk satrap needs not fear anything from this side.
Time and experience have proved to Ankara that Moscow is beyond doubt far more reliable an ally than warshington…
Against Russia turkey has no military option.
So what the crap this Sultan from ankara wants to get from this bellicose tune and approach?
While I salute the bravery and honour of the Syrian Arab Army and the Russian forces in Syria, I think that they have been let down by the bungled diplomacy and naïveté of President Putin. Putin, in 2015, initially tried to create an anti-ISIS coalition with the Western powers. He entered into agreements which essentially conferred legitimacy on the US-led coalition’s presence in Syria. It later emerged that Putin was being deceived by Mr Obama and later by Mr Trump. Putin was also played by Erdogan and he basically allowed the Turkish military to occupy a some Syrian territory. I have ways admired President Putin but his dithering and indecisiveness in Syria are responsible for the present logjam in that country
US Strike Carrier Group D. Eisenhower has entered the Mediterranean Sea after crossing the Strait of Gibraltar steaming to the East at good speed, to demonstrate “fully commitment to our allies and partners”.
Things are heating up in Syria, I am not sure the trukish will not achieve their goals of make the SAA + Russia retreat to their positions of one month agoa, it seems the US will be de bodyguard of Erdogan now (at what price?)
The right answer for the Resistence Axis is to speed up the pressure in Iraq and let the kurds make some damages to the turkish army
Turkey shot down two Syrian jets. Pilots ejected safely. That sure doesn’t look like Cassad’s notion.
Putin now has to decide whether to reactivate Russian air support over Idlib in furtherance of Assad’s order of a “no-fly zone” over Idlib, thus putting Turkish drones and jets at risk by Syrian and Russian jets – and risking Russian jets possibly being shot down by US/Turkey-supplied Stinger missiles or Turkish jets.
The problem for Putin is Turkey is deliberating embedding Turkish troops with jihadists. That’s how those 30 Turks got killed. So Putin is going to have to decide whether to risk further Turkish casualties and Erdogan’s inevitable escalation, or proceed as if Turkey is not involved at all and just bomb the crap out of Idlib.
Personally I see Erdogan continuing to escalate until Putin has no option but to authorize direct Russian/Syrian strikes against any and all Turkish troops inside Syria.
Colonel Pat Lang points out that the Turkish advance is undoubtedly being aided by its large heavy artillery and MLRS systems inside Syria and cross-border from Turkey. He thinks Russian strikes on those guns could halt or slow the Turkish advance, without risking NATO involvement under Chapter 5. I suspect we’re going to see such strikes shortly – if Putin can make that decision after the next Erdogan escalation.
Are Russia and Turkey on a collision course?
No doubt about it.Instead of being happy that he is still alive due to Putin and trade well with Russia, ErrDogan started overtly to kill Syrians in their own country.Making videos about how good the Turkish drones are in destroying and killing ( they are ). But from a PR point of view,this is a disaster in my opinion. Now the Syrian army is shelling the Turkish observation posts. The drones start falling.And the worse is still to come. The best they can hope for is to still keep Idlib city for a while while the Saraqib city, M5 and M4 are liberated and integrated into the country reconstruction effort after so many years of suffering.
PS.Errdogan is home alone,american aircraft carriers cost a lot and have no defence against supersonic missiles.
The last 24-48h were a big mistake (if not a betrayal of his allies!!!)…unilateral halt fire from Russian part…the Turks take advantage of it to destroy a lot of SAA equipment and boost a djihadist attack in al graib plains…SAA have lost there a big part of the recent gains…
https://ejmagnier.com/2020/03/01/erdogan-idlib-is-mine/
Erdogan is just playing politics again. He’s a very shrewd politician who plays everyone against each other, trying to look like the defender of Sunni Muslims and thereby gain more support from the Saudis and other financial backers in the middle east. I’m sure Erdogan gets something out of this, and it probably doesn’t have much to do with any actual war plans.