[This analysis was written for the Unz Review]
The recent Paris summit and the few days following the summit have brought a lot of clarity about the future of the Minsk Agreements. Short version: Kiev has officially rejected them (by rejecting both the sequence of steps and several crucial steps). For those interested, let’s look a little further.
First, what just happened
First, here are the key excerpts from the Paris Conference and from statements made by “Ze” and his superior, Arsen Avakov right after their return to Kiev:
Paris Conference statement: source
The Minsk agreements (Minsk Protocol of 5 September 2014, Minsk Memorandum of 19 September 2014 and the Minsk Package of Measures of 12 February 2015) continue to be the basis of the work of the Normandy format whose member states are committed to their full implementation (…) The sides express interest in agreeing within the Normandy format (N4) and the Trilateral Contact Group on all the legal aspects of the Special Order of Local Self-Government – special status – of Certain Areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk Regions – as outlined in the Package of Measures for the Implementation of the Minsk Agreements from 2015 – in order to ensure its functioning on a permanent basis .They consider it necessary to incorporate the “Steinmeier formula” into the Ukrainian legislation, in accordance with the version agreed upon within the N4 and the Trilateral Contact Group.
President ‘Ze’ statement on Ukrainian TV: (unofficial, in-house, translation) source
“The most difficult question is the question of the transfer of the border control to Ukraine. It’s very funny, because its our border and the transfer of the control to us. But, it’s a weak sport, the Achilles’ heel of the Minsk Agreement.” “It’s what was signed by us, unfortunately. We can discuss this for a very long time. Possibly, the conditions were as such.” “But we signed that we will get the control over our border only after the elections on the temporarily occupied territories.” “We dedicated a very long time to this question, we discussed it in details, we have a very different positions with the president of Russia.” “But this is the Minsk position, we have to understand this. I only like one thing, that we started talking about this. We agreed that we will continue talking about this in details and with the different variations during our next meeting.” “This is also a victory, because we will have a meeting in four months.”
Q. What do you think, is it possible to change the Minsk Agreement?
“This will be very difficult to do, but we have to do it. We have to change it. First, we have to understand that it’s been over four years since the Minsk Agreement was signed. Everything changes in our life. We have to understand that it wasn’t my team that signed the Minsk Agreement, but we as a power have to fulfill the conditions that our power at the time agreed back then. But? I am sure that some things we will be able to change. We will be changing them.” “Because the transfer of the Ukraine’s border after our control only after the elections, – it’s not our position. I said about this don’t know how many times, but this is the final decision.”
Arsen Avakov’s statement on Ukrainian TV: (unofficial, in-house, translation): source
“The philosophy of the border control… the part of the border that we don’t have control over is 408 kilometers. It’s not that easy to take it over, to equip it, even to get there across the enemy territories. It’s a procedure. As a compromise, we offered the following scheme: we will start taking the border under our control stating with the New Year, little by little, reducing the length of the border that is not controlled by us, and a day before the local election we will close the border, we will close this bottleneck. And this way will get the control over the border. Why isn’t this a good compromise? Considering, that at the same time according to the Steinmeier Formula, they have to disarm all the illegal armed formations of this pseudo-state DNR. This is how we see the compromise.”
In other words, both the official President and real President of the Ukraine agree: the Ukraine will not implement the Minsk Agreements as written, made law by the UNSC and clarified by the so-called Steinmeier Formula.
Ukrainian propagandists on Russian TV (yes, Ukronazi and hardline nationalist propagandists do get air time on Russian TV on a daily basis – for an explanation why, see here and here) went into damage control mode and explained it all away by saying “these are only words, what matters is what Zelenskii signed in Paris“. They are wrong. First of all, statements made in their official capacity by the President or the Minister of Internal Affairs do represent OFFICIAL policy statements. Second, this explanation completely overlooks the reason why Ze and Avakov said these things. That reason is very simple: Ze caved in to the Ukronazis, completely. He now uses EXACTLY the same rhetoric as Poroshenko did, in spite of the fact that the only reason he was elected is that he presented himself as the ultimate anti-Poroshenko. Now all we see is Poroshenko 2.0.
So in the behind-the-scenes (but very real) struggle between the Zionist camp (Kolomoiskii and Zelenskii) and the Urkonazi camp (Avakov and Poroshenko), the latter have successfully taken control of the former and now the chances for saving a unitary Ukraine are down to, maybe not quite zero, but to something like 0.0000001% (I leave that one under the heading “never say never” and because I have been wrong in the past).
So what happens next?
That is the interesting question. In theory, the Normandy Four will meet again in 4 months. But that assumes that some progress was made. Well, it is possible that in a few sections of the line of contact there will be an OSCE supervised withdrawal of forces. But, let’s be honest here, the people have seen many, many such promised withdrawals, and they all turned out to be fake. Either the Ukronazis return to the neutral zone (claiming huge victories over the (sic) “Russian armed force”), or they resume bombing civilians, or they never even bother to change position. Any withdrawal is a good thing if it can save a single life! But no amount of withdrawals will settle anything in this conflict.
Second, there are A LOT of Ukrainian politicians who now say that the citizens of the LDNR have to “return” to Russia if they don’t like the Urkonazi coup or its ideology. They either don’t realize, or don’t care, that there are very few Russian volunteers in Novorussia and that the vast majority of the men and women who compose the LDNR forces are locals. These locals, by the way, get the Ukie message loud and clear: you better get away while you can, because when we show up you will all be prosecuted for terrorism and aiding terrorists, that is ALSO something the Ukronazis like to repeat day after day. By the way, while in Banderastan all Russian TV channels are censored, and while they also try to censor the Russian language Internet, in Novorussia all the Ukrainian (and Russian) TV stations are freely available. So as soon as some Nazi freak comes out and says something crazy like “we will create filtration camps” (aka concentration camps) this news is instantly repeated all over Novorussia, which only strengthens the resolve of the people of the LDNR to fight to their death rather than accept a Nazi occupation..
I said it many times, Zelenskii’s ONLY chance was to crackdown on the Nazis as soon as he was elected. He either did not have the courage to do so, or his U.S. bosses told him to leave them unmolested. Whatever the case may be, it’s now over, we are back to square one.
The most likely scenario is a “slow freezing” of the conflict meaning now that Kiev has officially and overtly rejected the Minsk Agreements, there will be some minor, pretend-negotiations, maybe, but that fundamentally the conflict will be frozen.
That will be the last nail in the coffin of the pro-EU, pro-NATO so-called “Independent Ukraine”, since the most important condition to try to salvage the Ukrainian economy, namely peace, is now gone. Furthermore, the political climate in the Ukraine will further deteriorate (the hated Nazi minority + an even worse economic crisis are a perfect recipe for disaster).
For the Novorussians, it’s now clear: the rump-Ukraine* does not want them, nor will Kiev ever agree to the Minsk Agreement. That means that the LDNR will separate from the rump-Ukraine and, on time, rejoin Russia. Good bye Banderites and Ukronazis!
The rump-Ukraine will eventually break-up further: Crimea truly was the “jewel of the Black Sea” and its future appears to be extremely bright while the Donbass was the biggest source of raw materials, energy, industry, high-tech, etc. etc. etc.). What is left of the Ukraine is either poor and under-developed (the West) or needs to reopen economic ties with Russia (the South).
Besides, Zelenskii and his party are now trying to rush a new law through the Rada which will allow the sale of Ukrainian land to private interests (aka foreign interests + a local frontman). As a result, there is now a new “maidan” brewing, pitting Iulia Timoshenko and other nationalist leaders against Zelenskii and his party. This could become a major crisis very fast, especially now that is appears that Zelenskii will also renege on this promise to call for a national referendum on the issue of the sale/privatization of land.
As for the Russians, they already realize that Ze is a joke, unsurprisingly so since he is a comic by trade, and that the Ukrainians are “not agreement capable”. They will treat him like they did Poroshenko in the last years: completely ignore him and not even take his telephone calls. Right now, there is just a tiny bit of good will left in Moscow, but it is drying up so fast that it will soon totally disappear. Besides, the Russians really don’t care that much anymore: the sanctions turned out to be a blessing, time is on Russia’s side, the Ukronazis are destroying their own state and, finally, the important stuff for Russia is happening in Asia, not the West.
The Europeans will take a long time to come to terms with two simple facts:
- Russia was never a party to this conflict (if she had, it would have been over long ago).
- The Ukronazis are the ones who won’t implement the Minsk Agreements
This means that the politicians who were behind the EU’s backing of the Euromaidan (Merkel) will have to go before their successors can say that, oops, we got our colors confused, and white is actually black and black turned out to be white. That’s okay, politicians are pretty good at that. The honeymoon between Kiev and Warsaw on the one hand and Berlin on the other will soon end as bad times are ahead.
Macron looks much better, and he will probably pursue his efforts to restore semi-normal relations with Russia, for France’s sake first, but also eventually the rest of the EU. The Poles and the Balts will accuse him of “treason” and he will just ignore them.
As for Trump, he will most likely make small steps towards Russia, but most of his energy will be directed either inwards (impeachment) or outwards (Israel), but not towards the Ukrainian conflict. Good.
Conclusion
It’s over. Crimea and the Donbass are gone forever, the first is de jure, the latter merely de facto. The rump-Ukraine is completely unconformable (barring some kind of coup followed by a government of national unity supported Moscow – I consider this hypothesis as highly unlikely).
If you live in the West, don’t expect your national media to report on any of this. They will be the LAST ones to actually admit it (journos have a longer shelf life than politicians, it is harder for them to make a 180).
The Saker
PS: to get a feeling for the kind of silly stunts the “Ze team” is now busying itself with, just check this one: they actually tried to falsify the Ukrainian version of the Paris Communique. For details, see Scott’s report here: https://10.16.86.131/kiev-attempted-to-change-the-letter-and-meaning-of-paris-summit-communique/. If the Ukraine was a Kindergarten, then “Ze” would be a perfect classroom teacher or visiting entertainer. But for a country fighting for its survival, such stunts are a very, very bad sign indeed!
(*rump-Ukraine: In broad terms, a “rump” state is what remains of a state when a portion is carved away. Expanding on the “butcher” metaphor, the rump is what is left when the higher-value cuts such as rib roast and loin have been removed.)
I knew from the get go that the orcs would not honor any agreement. Mutti Merkel is a dead woman walking, she’s had at least two strokes and is being kept ‘alive’ simply so she can put her people in the realms of power once she’s gone. Golland from France also signed the deal and he’s long gone from power. So, we are left with the UN resolutions concerning Minsk. Russia did not guaranty anything, Russia did not sign anything, Russia simply provided the opportunity for Merkel, Golland and porky to sign the damned paper and be done with it.
True to form, the orcs tried it again, they learned nothing from their disaster of the summer cauldrons in ’14, and darned if they didn’t continue to arty the bejesus out of Gorlovka and Donetsk City for months, from three sides, whilst building up their forces in the narrow isthmus they controlled between DNR and LNR at Debaltsyevo. Then, out of the mists appeared DNR/LNR units all around them. The orcs had thought of LNR, Lughansk, as the weak sister in Novorossiya that could be bribed in to submission. What a mistake. So, the orcs are offered a corridor to withdraw in, trucks, personal weapons and one backpack only. Again, true to form, after the first few units withdrew with no problems by following the agreement, the following units tried to withdraw with everything they had, armor, arty and loot. In an epitome of idiocy, the orcs even loosed off a few rounds at NAF (Novorossiya Armed Forces) watching them from a distance as they withdrew up the corridor. And the fight, which turned in to a slaughter of orc forces, was on.
So here comes Mutti and Golland again and this time they sign an ironclad agreement with stipulated steps Orcland must take to end the conflict, and UN put it’s stamp of approval on the agreement. The orcs have not done the first thing, not one item, of the ‘to do’ list that Merkel and Golland signed and guaranteed would be enforced.
And now the ‘head orc’ is clearly stating that the agreement will be changed? This comedian lives in never-never land. He would be well advised to look slightly west and prepare to kiss more of orcland good bye. The Land of Poles and Hungary are looking at a couple or so oblasti out there including Lemberg to welcome back in to their fold. Lemberg, by the by, is that charming berg that, like Tribaltica, started slaughtering their Jews a couple days before the Germans arrived.
The orcs have purposely destroyed their industrial base as a ‘revenge’ against Russia, in particular, but far from inclusive, the Antonov Aircraft Company, a company that, under Russian guidance, produced some of the finest airframes the world has ever seen. It’s gone now, as are a large number of other factories and businesses, but you can bet your bottom ruble that all the experts and designers from Antonov amongst many others have been in Russia for a few years, working happily away building Sukhoi’s amongst other state of the art airframes and large marine diesel engines.
Bottom line, the orcs don’t need enemies, they are happily destroying their entire country and what ‘culture’ they had and in another decade, if that long, there will be no ‘Malorus’, it will be gone forever. Novorossiya will, in time, become if not a part of Russia certainly a close and protected ally. South Malorus, again with time I foresee the same process, gradual integration with Russia. In the end it will be Kiev and Zhitomir, nothing more. And by that time, us/eu will have long forgotten Malorus and abandoned them to their fate.
Auslander
Author http://rhauslander.com/
Never The Last One, paperback edition. https://www.amazon.com/dp/1521849056 A deep look in to Russia, her culture and her Armed Forces, in essence a look at the emergence of Russian Federation.
Sevastopol, The Third Defense. https://www.amazon.com/dp/1698430825 Book 1, A Premonition. Set against a backdrop of real events and real places, the reader is left to filter fact from fiction.
Looks to me like these are the same people who were committing pogroms in the nineteenth century. Just uncultured, violent, willfully ignorant people.
Try to find out why there were pogroms. There was a reason. Peasants don’t suddenly start killing tax-collectors and “bankers” for no reason.
The vast majority of Jews were not tax collectors and bankers. Do you actually believe that the Jewish billionaires who give Jews a bad name constituted the 99%. Or the 1%? Yet, Jews are also blamed for opposing these same people. Dirty Jewish bankers, dirty Jewish revolutionaries who opposed the bankers.
Right?
Most were poverty stricken. Didn’t you read about Bernie Sanders and how his family got to the US?
Your comment says more about yourself than about immigrants. It was a Jew, Emma Lazarus, who wrote the poem at the base of the Statue of Liberty, “Give me your tired, your poor, your huddled masses yearning to breathe free.”
Oh that’s right, ‘they’ all several million of them put Christ on the cross.
It’s a pathetic commentary that such comments that use gross generalities to foster hatred are tolerated as free speech.
And no this is not an apologia for the gross human rights violations that the Zionists perpetrate, nor an excuse for the Sheldon Adelsons and Jeff Epsteins of the world.
Dick Cheney doesn’t go to the synagogue either.
EXACTLY. “Nothing is `per se´”
(*rump-Ukraine: In broad terms, a “rump” state is what remains of a state when a portion is carved away.
– A bit weird to call like 96% of Ukraine a “rump” perhaps. If anything the sliver of Donbass would be considered a rump.
the important stuff for Russia is happening in Asia, not the West.
-Seems as much if not more things are happening in west for Russia. Nord Stream 2 among them. Than in east. Not to mention the likelihood of EU rejecting the sanctions and abandoning Ukraine draws ever nearer.
The Ukraine lost about 20% of its territory
And in the meanwhile the general director of Ukroboronprom Aivaras Abromavicius wants to demolish Antonov factory in Kiev in order to build there a housing estate.
Abromavicius is a Lithuanian-born investment banker that has been the Ukraine’s Minister of Economy and Trade from December 2014 to April 2016.
Maybe they want to destroy anything that could be used to the benefit of Russia in case of realignment. Not that it would change much, since they were not producing anything and their equipment was fully outdated…
In case they solve the name and IP issue, it would be nice for Russia to build a new Antonov factory in Donetsk….
Kiev has always been assured of US support, which has come early with $$$ and late with military training and weapons. But during the crucial months of war, from March 2014-February 2015, when it really mattered on the battlefield and at Minsk where Putin had the upper hand, Kiev was left to its own wits (Porky succumbed to Minsk Accords with the idea that as always in Ukraine, agreements were never honored, so there was nothing to worry about).
Five years later, Ukraine has lost its border and much of Donbass,Crimea voted and left to return to Mother Russia. Ukraine’s value to EU is minimal, its usefulness for NATO is as cannon fodder and parade grounds. Its economy is in ruins and corruption is the true currency of the Ukraine. It is a beggar nation, a whore pimped by everyone who champions the Maidan.
Zelenski has no skills that will save his country or his presidency. He has one path charted for him, the Minsk Accords’ 13 steps. Of course, Biletsky and Azov and Yarosh and Pravy Sektor wait with knives and bullets dare the government takes even one Minsk step forward.
Words and propaganda are all that is left to Kiev, regardless who is President.
The Truth is not possible for them to consider in their calculus.
Russophobia, thus, is all the chips they have left. Blame Russia, Putin and fabricate false flags, while keeping the Ukrainian public filled with hate for their Russian brothers and sisters living well across the border that is long gone.
The Russian goal, the Putin goal has been to wait out the filtration of the Nazis by the Ukrainians themselves. Russia wants no war with Ukraine, no occupation of Novorossiya, no alignment that leaves the likelihood of a guerrilla war waged by tens of thousands of Banderaites with the “help” of NATO, ISIS, AQ and whoever the CIA can muster to kill Russians.
How frozen the conflict will become is unknowable. Since there never has been a ceasefire, with Minks Agreement in cold storage, any leverage on Kiev will have to be denial of loans, investments and military support.
It likely will take the EU quite a few years to turn away from Ukraine. The US will never “abandon” this hapless entity. The vested interests, the Khazarian tribe in the State Dept, CIA, in Israel, and the nazis in Canada (ex-pat, refugees, criminals) all are permanent stakeholders.
It is easy to imagine nothing changing for a dozen years or more.
However, the degradation of civility and rule of law in Kiev, a second Maidan, seems very possible.
And from that revolt against the government will result a profoundly violent Nazi regime which would require cauterization. Who does that and how that is done is not predictable.
When the final crisis befalls Kiev, I think a coalition of its neighbors will join with the UN to carve up the big Ukraine and leave a very small Ukraine. That could be a long time from now. It’s really up to the Nazis. They hold the fate of the nation in their blood-soaked hands.
In Ukraine, the ‘crazies’ have always determined the journey forward. The corrupt Oligarchs are too busy stealing everything they can get their hands on to bother with government responsibilities, duties and tasks.
Looks like there is a shred of self-respect left somewhere .. Protests today against sell-of of land. Iulia Timoshenko is in the center of the protests there.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a5NJBf-Eejo
Would this be the same Tymoshenko who four years ago was digging up vast hectares of the rich black soil of the steppes and selling it by the bag in trainloads to Europe? The only difference between her and Kankles is she has a better plastic surgeon.
Auslander
Exactly the same one Auslander .. that one! Take a look at the video, you will see just about everybody, Porky as well, cleaning out whatever is left in those coffers.
You know, I said it before, & I’ll say it again, the west allowed/permitted Zelenski to come to power in order for the disintegration process in Ukraine to get underway. It is like this: if Ukraine can not fulfill its function as a mercenary state to be used by NATO aggressively against Russia, then it can not be permitted to survive long enough for Russia to re-establish any amount of influence there. That, is what it comes down to.
It was obvious to me when the IMF began to show unwillingness to continue ‘lending’ Ukraine money, knowing these supposed loans are actually grants & they are not getting any dough back, that was a clear sign that the Ukronazi state is going to be dropped. The only reason the Maidan was arranged was to prevent Ukraine further cooperating with Russia, especially economically, which could lead to integrative processes, & to use Ukraine as a literal weapon, a dagger aimed at Russia’s heart. The heroic resistance in Crimea & then Donbass stopped that in its tracks. The Germans, & the French to an extent, couldn’t believe it, there they were actually believing that the entire color-Soros revolt was actually about bringing the Ukraine into the EU & NATO, & it turns out all the US is interested in is starting a massive war in Europe – in part to destroy Russia, in part to try to return the world to 1945 when the US was top dog. It is difficult to assess here who was the greatest moron, the leadership in Germany & France, or in the US – they all just lost their minds completely.
Anyway, it is all over. What now? Well, like others with a similar outlook, I think Ukraine has 0 chance of remaining in one piece. The war of the oligarchs is about to begin, but more ominously, the war of some oligarchs against the Banderite-nazis is about to begin, & this is what is going to cause Ukraine to implode. Washington couldn’t care less, especially the Trump faction, they really don’t care & probably hope that happens sooner rather than later, so they can right the Ukraine off as a bad investment by the idiot liberal faction in the US, get some propaganda out of it by blaming them for everything (that is partly what this Biden-Burisma thing is all about) & instruct the IMF to withhold all further loans & extensions to Ukraine. In Ukraine itself it could become seriously nasty, something a little akin to this is brewing in Montenegro, it is not a precise analogy but Milo Djukanovic, the mafia/clan incredibly treasonous NATO PM of Montenegro is – to be absolutely frank – probably heading towards being murdered. Something similar could be in stall for Zelenski, whose petulant behavior will make him a rather forgettable fool, but it will have huge implications for Ukraine. Whatever happens, it is not going to be pretty, Ukraine has had it, Zelenski either didn’t realize, didn’t care, or just didn’t have the power (or all of the above) to negotiate in good faith in France & save his country – he seems blissfully ignorant that many people, including himself most likely, are about to die an ugly violent death at the hands of a bunch of maniacs. Did anyone notice that an ISIS commander was arrested recently in Ukraine? This guy is the older brother of one Tarkhan Baritashvili, known to the world as Abu-Umar al-Shishani, or Omar the Chechen. He was in ISIS’ shura council, a top dog, & he was arrested almost certainly because Zelenski’s people know that he was essentially in charge of organising the Chechen & Russian speaking contingent of ISIS – anywhere between 11,000 & according to Syrian military sources 80,000 combatant jihadists – & he was going to lead a renewed contingent in Ukraine if war breaks out. This is really really bad. Yes, they arrested him, but what does that tell you about what Banderite-nazi Ukraine has in store?
The assesment presented here is pretty good. But, If you will allow, let me explain what I see. What I see is that the three regional powers involved in this situaltion have officially (and publicly) agreed to the implementation of the Minsk accords and their implementation via the Steinmeir formula (again). What I believe is that anyone who wishes to deviate from this agreement is exactly (Removed language,MOD) out of luck.
I think a lot of commentators overestimate the instability of the Ukraine. The whole “it will break apart, now it is inevitable”, “the economy is grinding to an absolute zero”, and so on (these are obviously no direct quotes), I don’t see it happening. I am talking here about more regions additional to Crimea, Donetzk, Lugansk. I would estimate that the economy will grow quite rapidly between 2020 and 2025. The wages are so low and the knowledge base is still there such that investing is a no brainer. People say it is an artificial country but that does not matter. Borders in Europe ‘feel’ fixed, and most people the nonbreakaway parts feel Ukrainian in the political sense. I think the Ukrainian politics will shift to some rather neutral stance like Belarus. The nazi fraction will be happy with that since it will keep immigration lower than a full turn west and becoming a country like Checz Republic. Yes, the more official Anglojewish NATO fraction will be very unhappy and there is a lot of struggle ahead. But I think it will work without a full blown civil war. See also Georgia. It had a very anti-Russian government and society, lost two regions but now it is pretty quite and adapts to the changed geopolitical world (Russia and China stronger then 10 years ago).
”I would estimate that the economy will grow quite rapidly between 2020 and 2025.”
And on what are your estimates based exactly? This sounds more like an assertion than straight fact.
It seems axiomatic that the creation of wealth requires workers to produce value. But Ukraine is depopulating at the rate of 100,000 per month, and since 1991 has lost 10 million in what we might call people flight. I would have thought that a country which is depopulating at a rate of knots will find it very difficult to increase its growth rate or national income.
America will bravely fight Russia … to the last Ukrainian.
That is ultimately how the Americans view the Ukrainians: as imperial cannon fodder to be used and then discarded like a soiled condom.
That is American values for you–sick to the core.
“That is American values for you–sick to the core.”
It is also israeli values, who is essentially running the show regarding “western” ukrainian policy.
Here when an elk or deer is butchered, once the best cuts (steaks, roasts, tenderloin ) are removed, the rest is just hamburger. That said, it breaks my heart to see places like Харьков и Одесса included in that lot.
A ‘macron’ is a ‘mark’.
He is no friend of mankind.
He worships Jupiter the Roman god of fortresses.
By peace he shall destroy many.
It is Macron’s peace plan that will win the contest.
“Russia was never a party to this conflict (if she had, it would have been over long ago).
The Ukronazis are the ones who won’t implement the Minsk Agreements”
-I imagine EU already knows this. And Russia and EU are working together to create a situation when it will be impossible to ignore that Ukraine rejects Minsk 2. Than EU will life the sanctions on Russia.
For those who have forgotten, on July 17, 2014, MH17 was shot down and next year on March 9 a court case is to begin in the Netherlands. For much Dutch people the story begins on that July 17, but I had been following the story for months already. In June “rebels” took a Buk Transporter-Erector-Launcher with three missiles from an Ukrainian army base. In August 2015 the MH17 Joint Investigation Team, of which Ukraine is a member, would publish the finding that that launcher had not been able to launch any missile. Kiev must have known that, it was its own launcher, but when on July 14 an AN-26 was shot down near near Lugansk, with the launcher nearby, Kiev said it had been flying at about six kilometres, implying a missile of that launcher had been used. Three days later Kiev again accused the “rebels” for shooting down MH17. Five days later Ukraine had been included into the Dutch led JIT because “it was necessary in order to collect and interpret evidence in Russian and Ukrainian”. There is a clear lack of evidence and motive but after more than five years ….
I suppose the Buk TEL was taken to “invite” Kiev to organise a False Flag event and that Russia will have its evidence ready, if, that is, the court case will really start on March 9.
It appears very plain to me that the Ukranazi’s have zero intention of seeking a peaceful solution with the eastern republics. They view the inhabitants as terrorists, discounting that many have lived there for there entire lives. If the citizens were foolish enough to disarm a slaughter would follow. I also don’t expect them simply to throw their hands in the air and give up on trying to capture the eastern territories and even Crimea. This is their delusion. The sooner the defacto separation becomes permanent with Russian forces guarding the new border the better it will be for all.
I’m a doctor living in Poland, having previously lived in America. The numer of Ukrainians here is enormous. I don’t have any thing against them. They’re generally regarded as a cheap source of labor similar to how Mexicans and South American are regarded in the States. I frequently treat Ukranian patients. It’s pretty ironic that the ruling party, who are regarded as nationalists (or at least they pretend to be) are responsible for this influx.
When WWI started Germany made a deal with the Ukraine government to be a Supermarket for their army. It didn’t work because the country and its government was so corrupt. Things haven’t changed.
Hello the Saker,
This piece of news, including some analasis, seems to incdate that more came from the Minsk agreement. Via back doors ofcourse. The head line says it well ”’Gas War’ Averted: Russia & Ukraine Agree To Crucial Transit Deal, Defying The Hawks”’ https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/gas-war-averted-russia-ukraine-agree-crucial-transit-deal-defying-hawks
Notable quotes;
”Per FT, a major gas transit deal has been reached between Ukraine and Russia “in principle” and will likely be imminently signed into effect by Moscow and Kiev leadership, ultimately ending a standoff after Ukraine ceased buying gas directly from Gazprom in 2015:”
”And just like that, the central rationale for new US sanctions targeting companies laying pipeline for the massive Gazprom-Europe Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline to Germany has been made mute and obsolete.”
”…The gas price plunge stands to benefit Ukraine as it continues negotiations with Russia not only on the preliminary agreement on prolonging transit to European markets but also on the price and conditions for restoring Russian gas supply for domestic consumers.”
”Crucially, Ukraine gains some $3BN annually as Gazprom is responsible for over a third of the gas consumed in the EU, which must pass through the country in transit to central, southern, and north-west Europe.”
This kind of info makes me think there is hope for cooperation. The pressure in Europe to restore trade and positive ties with Russia is building. Here in Holland our former army, navy and airforce commander stated openly that we had to rethink instead of almost always look to America for what to do
Regards,
Hugo
LDNR is ready for the vote to secede and request to join Russia. The West has only itself to blame. On the other hand, this might have been the plan all along; balkanize the rump Ukraine and give a different homeland to the Jews in Europe where the Khazarians hail from in the first place. This makes sense as, Palestine has been and will be quite inhospitable to the Ashke-Nazis and the new homeland is a natural habitat to return home to. We wish them well and hope they succeed so that it will be easier to nuke them in a concentrated way, if need be.
I find Avakov’s statements particularly slimy. He’s saying cede border area that we can’t take militarily. Oh, and maybe we’ll hold elections. So Novorossiya gets creeping encirclement on a “promise” of elections. Screw that.