by Andrei for the Saker blog
Note: I will be terminating the fund drive today, and I want to thank ALL those who donated, be it prayers, words of support or money. You have made a huge difference to us in a difficult moment and I want to thank you all for this! As for the blog, it is now doing better than ever and I have you all to thank for it.
***
Truly, tectonic changes are happening before our eyes, and today I just want to list some of them but without going too deep into specific analyses, that I plan to do later in the coming weeks. But just looking at this list is impressive enough, at least for me. So, here we go:
The Anglos are circling the wagons:
The planned sale of US/UK SSNs to Australia is nothing short of a HUGE game changer. It is also just the tip of a big iceberg:
- The US seems to have de facto given up on Europe, not only because the UK left or because the EU is crashing and unmanageable anyway, but because the political grip the US had on the continent is now clearly slipping: NATO is a paper tiger, the “new Europeans” have outlived their utility and Russia has basically successfully diffused the threat from the West by her titanic effort to develop capabilities which make an attack on Russia suicidal for any country, including the USA, whether nukes are involved or not.
- By screwing over France, the US has jettisoned a pretty useless ally which had a short hysterical fit, but is already going back to its usual groveling and begging (BTW – those who think that de Gaulle was the last French patriot capable of telling Uncle Shmuel to “take a hike” are wrong, Mitterrand was the last one, but that is a topic for another day).
- Of course, in political/PR terms, the US will continue to declare itself committed to NATO and the EU, but the “body language” (actions) of the US directly contradicts this notion.
- For all its immense progress since the 80s and 90s, China still has two major technological weak points: aircraft engines and SSNs. It just so happens that these are also two real US strong points. By deploying 8 more SSNs near China, the US is very intelligently maximizing the use of its best assets and hurting China where it will hurt the most. This does come with some very real risks, however, which I will discuss below.
The BRICS is close to becoming useless:
Brazil is currently run by the US and Israel. South Africa is in a deep crisis. As for India, it is doing what it has been doing for decades: trying to play all sides while trying to weaken China. So it sure looks like the BRICS are becoming the “BRICS” which really leaves us with “only” the “RC” alliance which actually has a real name: the Chinese call it the “Strategic comprehensive partnership of coordination for the new era”.
Again, I don’t think that anybody will formally dissolve what was a rather informal alliance to begin with, but defacto the BRICS seems to be losing much of its former glamour and illusions. As for Russia and China, they are not going to “save” the former BRICS members out of some sense of sympathy especially not against their own will: let them save themselves, or at least try. Then, maybe.
Also, let’s be honest here, BRICS was an economic concept which was mostly an alliance of weak(er) countries against the big economic and military powers of the North and West.
As for the Russian-Chinese alliance (let’s call it that, even though formally that is not what this is), it is, by itself, already more powerful than BRICS and even more powerful than the united West (US+NATO+EU+etc.).
The SCO is changing (thanks to Uncle Shmuel), fast
If Biden was a secret “Putin agent” (“KGB agent” is the preferred term in the US, at least by those who do not seem to realize that the KGB was disbanded thirty years ago) he could not have done “better” than what he did in Afghanistan. Now, thanks to this galactic faceplant, the small(er) guys in the SCO (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan) are now getting seriously concerned about what will happen next. Even better, the (very powerful) Iran will officially become a SCO member this month! Again, neither Russia nor China “need” the SCO for their defense, but it sure makes things easier for them. Speaking of Afghanistan, Pakistan is already a SCO member, as is India.
It is important to note that the SCO will not become an “Asian NATO” or an “anti-NATO” or anything similar. Again, why would Russia, China and other want to follow a failed model? They have repeated ad nauseam that their alliances are of unions of (truly!) sovereign states and that this union will not impede on this sovereignty in any way (besides, neither Russia nor China need to limit the others SCO members sovereignty to begin with).
The EU is slowly committing economic and political suicide
Initially, France had a major hissy fit, but is probably not doing the only thing France should do after what happened: leave NATO and slam the door on it, very loudly. De Gaulle or Mitterrand would have done so immediately, but Macron? Being the ultimate spineless fake that he is, it would be miraculous if he did anything meaningful (other than brutally repressing all the riots in France).
At this time of writing, the result of the elections in Germany are too close to call, but even if NS2 is allowed to function, the level of russophobic hysteria in Europe is so extreme that the following will almost certainly happen: the EU will continue with its rhetoric until the prices go even further up, at which point they will turn to the only country which the EU desperately need to survive: the much hated and feared Russia. Don’t quote me on that, but last week I remember the following prices for 1000 cubic meters of gas in Europe (just under 1000 dollars), the Ukraine (1600 dollars) and Belarus (120 dollars). I might have memorized this wrong (I was traveling), and this might have changed, but the bottom line is this: only Russia can give the EU the energy it needs, and she has exactly ZERO reasons to make those russophobic prostitutes any favors (other than symbolic). And even if my memory played a trick on me, what is certain is that the prices for energy are soaring, the EU reserves are very low, and the temperatures falling. Welcome to the real world :-)
I won’t even go into the “multiculturalism” “inclusivity” “positivity” and other Woke nonsense which most of the EU countries have accepted as dogmas (even Switzerland caved in).
The US is like an aircraft breaking apart in mid-air
As most of you know, I have decided to stay away from internal US politics (for many different reasons). So I will just use a metaphor: the US is like an aircraft which, due to pilot incompetence and infighting, is breaking apart in mid-air with its passengers still arguing about who should be the next pilot as if that could make any difference. Some passengers will continue to argue until they hit the ground. Others are engage in “mid-air fistfights” apparently believing that if they succeed in beating the crap out of the other guy, they will somehow prevent gravity from doing what it does.
The reality is much simpler: a system that is not viable AND which cannot reform itself (too busy with self-worshiping and blaming others for everything) can only do one thing: collapse and, probably, even break-apart. Only after that can the US, or whatever the successor state(s) will be called, rebuild itself into something totally different from the US which died choking on its own arrogance this year (like all the other empires in history, by the way, the latest one being the Soviet one).
The Russian elections
The results are in and they are yet another galactic faceplant for the AngloZionist Empire. The main Kremlin Party took a hit, the Communists did very well, Zhirinovski’s LDPR lost a lot and a new (moderately pro-Kremlin) party made it in for the first time. Considering the many billions of dollars the West has spent on trying to create a Belarus-like crisis in Russia (Navalnyi, Petrov, Boshirov & Co.), this is yet another truly gigantic failure for the West. If anything, the rise of the KPRF shows that a lot of people are fed up with two things: 1) what they see as a tepid, if not outright weak, Russian foreign policy towards the West and 2) with the liberal (economically speaking) policies of Putin and his entourage. Absolutely NOBODY in Russia wants “better relations” or any kind of “dialog” with the rabidly russophobic West. And to the extent that Russia and the USA simply *have* to talk to each other (being nuclear superpowers) they, of course, will. But the EU as such is of zero interest to Russia. And if Russia needs to get something done (like what anyway?), she will talk to the US, not its EU underlings. For all its problems, the US still matters. But the clowns of the EU?
[Sidebar: the word “Communist” usually elicits a knee-jerk reaction from brainwashed US Americans. But for the rest of them, let me just say that while I don’t think the KPRF is what Russia needs and while I have nothing good to say about Ziuganov or most of the KPRF leadership, I will say that KPRF does not mean Gulags, hammers and sickles smashing Ukie babies, Russian tanks in downtown Warsaw or any such nonsense. There are several “Communist” parties in Russia, and none of them are even remotely similar to the kind of party the bad old CPSU was. So while US politicians feel very witty to speak of the CCP-virus and that kind of nonsense (Ted Cruz is officially my “favorite idiot” in Congress now), this is so far detached from any reality that I won’t even bother explaining it here.]
The COVID pandemic
Wow, just wow. Where do I even begin??? Biden’s speech on this topic was hateful declaration of war on all those who don’t fully accept the “official” White House line. The fact that many (most?) of those who do not accept the official party line DO accept an even dumber version of events does not make it right to force them into choosing between their beliefs and, say, their job, or their right to move around. Again, after listening to Biden I kept wondering if he was a “Putin agent” as his actions are only accelerating the breakup of the “US aircraft” I mentioned above. You can say many things about COVID-dissidents, but you can’t deny them two things: 1) a sincere belief in their ideas and 2) an equally sincere belief that their core freedoms, values and rights are trampled upon by pathological liars and crooks (aka politicians + BigPharma).
They will resist and, yes, violently if needed. Because for them it is both a matter of personal human dignity and even survival!
At least, and so far, the US still has a powerful Constitution which will make it very hard for the current nutcases in the White House to do what they apparently want to do (force 80M US Americans to obey “or else”). Furthermore, Federal courts cannot be simply ignored. Also, US states still have a lot of power. Finally, most US Americans still hold dear the ideals of freedom, liberty, small government, privacy, etc. But EU countries have no such protections from governmental abuse: true, in the US these are all rights that are weakened by the day if not the hour, but at least they have not been *officially* abrogated (yet?).
If you want to see how bad things can get without such rights, just look at the pandemic freak show in Canada, Australia or New Zealand!
Finally, and irrespective of its actual origin (I am still on the fence on that), the COVID pandemic wiped all the make-up and has showed the entire world the true face of the West and its rulers: weak, ignorant, arrogant, hypocritical cowards whose only true concern is to cover their butts and “grab whatever can be grabbed” before the inevitable and final explosion (nuclear, economic or social).
Now back to the Aussie SSNs
The sale/lease of these SSNs is not only a danger for China, but also one for Russia. Simply put, Russia cannot and will not allow the Anglos to strangle China like they did with Japan before WWII. The good news is this: the latest Russian SSNs/SSGNs are at least as good as the latest Seawolf/Virginia class, if not better. Ditto for ASW capabilities. What Russia does lack is the needed numbers (and Anglo submarine fleets are much larger, even “just” the USN alone) and funds, both of which China has (or can have). From the Kremlin’s point of view, the Anglos are trying to create an “Asian NATO”, something which neither China nor Russia will allow. The Chinese already informed the Aussies that they are now a legitimate target for nuclear strikes (apparently, Australia wants to become the “Poland of the Pacific”), while the Russians only made general comments of disapproval. But take this to the bank: the Russian General Staff and the Chinese (who both probably saw this coming for a while) will jointly deploy the resources needed to counter this latest “brilliant idea” of the Anglos. In purely military terms, there are many different options to deal with this threat, which ones China and Russia will choose will become apparent fairly soon because it is far better to do something to prevent that delivery from actually happening than to deal with eight more advanced attack submarines.
By the way, the Russians are also semi-deploying/semi-testing an advanced SSK, the Lada-class, which has both very advanced capabilities and, apparently, still many problems. SSKs are not capable of threatening SSNs in open (blue) waters, but in shallower (green/brown) waters such as straits or littorals, they can represent a very real threat, if only by “freeing up” the SNNs to go and hunt into the deep (blue) waters. Also, the main threat for subs comes from the air, and here, again, China and Russia have some very attractive options.
Conclusion: interesting times for sure…
Like the Chinese curse says, we are living in very interesting times. The quick collapse of the Empire and the US is, of course, inherently very dangerous for our planet. But it is also a golden opportunity for Zone B nations to finally kick the Anglos out and regain their sovereignty. True, the US still has a lot of momentum, just like a falling airliner would, but the fact remains that 1) they ran from Afghanistan and 2) they are circling their Anglo wagons, shows that somebody somewhere does “get it” and even understood that in spite of the huge political humiliation both of these developments represent for narcissistic politicians and their followers, this was a price which absolutely HAD to be paid to (try) to survive.
In my article (infamous) analysis ” Will Afghanistan turn out to be US imperialism’s “Last Gleaming”?” (it triggered even more hysterics and insults than usual, at least on the Unz review comments section), I wrote this: “the British Empire had the means of its foreign policies. The US does not.”
This is now changing.
Yes, what the Anglos (aka 5 eyes) are doing is a retreat. But it is a *smart* one. They are cutting off all the “useless imperial weights” and going for the “smaller but stronger” option. We might not like it, I certainly don’t, but I have to admit that this is pretty smart and even probably the only option left for the AngloZionist Empire. At the very least, it is now clear that the Anglos have no allies, and never had them. What they had were colonial coolies who imagined themselves as part of some “community of civilized, democratic and peace-loving, nations”. These coolies are now left in limbo.
So, who will be the next one to show Uncle Shmuel to the door? My guess is the Republic of Korea. And, frankly, since the DPRK is not a country the Empire can take on, and since China will only increase its (already major) influence on both the DPRK and the ROK, the US might as well pack and leave (maybe for Australia or occupied Japan?).
Okay, end of this overview of developments.
Now it’s your time to chime in as I am pretty sure that I missed quite a few things while on a short trip.
Cheers
Andrei
As far as the Russian elections go I don’t think Wikipedia gives the fullest picture. Here is the full breakdown from the Russian CEC – which shows the United Russia party dominates the State Duma again:
https://tass.com/politics/1341997
“The United Russia political party gained 324 seats in the new State Duma, Central Election Commission head Ella Pamfilova announced Friday, adding that a total of five parties and five self-nominees passed to the lower chamber.
“In the federal electoral district [the entire territory of Russia — TASS], a total of five parties passed the five-percent threshold to enter the Duma: United Russia gained 126 deputy mandates, the Communist Party gained 48, LDPR gained 19, A Just Russia – For Truth gained 19, and the New People gained 13. Representatives of seven parties won in 225 single-mandate districts: United Russia won in 198 districts, the Communist Party won in 9, A Just Russia won in 8, and LDPR won in 2. Representatives of the Homeland, the Civic Platform and the Party of Growth gained one mandate each,”…………
There was also a great interview on Australian tv with Victor Gao – the link is in this article.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/unbelievable-interview-sees-china-warn-23-million-australians-us-pact-now-makes-them
Trying to explain to the host what the AUKUS pact means for the 23 million Australians and how they now have a nuclear target on their backs.
Agree with you about ROK.
thank you for this post!
Andrei
In addition to the above – in regard to US internal politics – the imbeciles in the House of Representatives have done it again:
https://tass.com/politics/1342579
“..the US House of Representatives greenlighted an amendment to the defence budget bill that recommends the White House include 35 Russian citizens, including ministers, major businessmen and journalists, to the sanctions list…..”
The list includes the Prime Minister, Dimitry Peskov, the Health Minister, Margarita Simonyan etc…. Diplomatic hari kari I’d say!
Yes, I saw that. The morons in DC also denied Russian parliament members the right to travel to the UN in NY.
Do they actually believe this will achieve anything or are they just all pretending?
I don’t know, I am an analyst, not a psychiatrist :-)
Cheers
Talking about the morons in DC there is also this news reported by RT a few days ago:
“The [House Armed Services] Committee directs the Secretary of Defense, in consultation with the service secretaries, to submit a report to the congressional defense committees not later than March 15, 2022, on the Department’s strategy for enhancing the United States forward presence on NATO’s eastern periphery, to include assessments of possibilities for potential force structure enhancements at a minimum in Romania, Poland, and the Baltic states, along with options for enhanced deterrent posture in Ukraine.”
The amendment’s supporters believe it is justified by the need for deterrence against “Russian aggression on NATO’s eastern flank.”
Perhaps there should be an ad hoc convening of the UN, minus the USA and any slaves too wimpish to disobey them, somewhere a long way away from NYC where the host nation is on good diplomatic terms with the Russian Federation?
You know, somewhere like Paris?
After the AUKUS deal, I would imagine that Napoleon would jump at the chance to stick his tongue out at Capitol Hill…
Which Andrei? Andrei Matryanov?
Raevsky. (Martyanov has his own separate blog)
It was stolen elections, UR stole lot of votes of KPRF. We Russians all know that, especially impudent it was in Moscow region
https://www.unz.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/MoscowIS.jpeg
The fact that the KPRF has complaints about the elections in Moscow hardly proves anything. Let them do the civilized thing: go to the electoral commission or court and show their evidence.
Also, a picture on Unz is not evidence either.
Finally, by “expanding” the scope of the Moscow controversy to the entire nation, you are “aiding and abetting” the Empire.
As for the “we Russians”, you know as well as I do that this is nonsense. Some Russians believe that, others don’t.
Bottom line: your comment is all slogan and no substance.
Did you vote KRPF by chance ;-)
Picture on UNZ was taken in Russian sources, I was just too lazy to find original.
**Did you vote KRPF by chance ;-)
I did, whole my family did(wife scientist of MSU, son graduate student and scientist from MSU, me)
**As for the “we Russians”, you know as well as I do that this is nonsense
of course you know better than me living here, but ok, I know it’s useless to argue, but elections were stolen and current Russian courts are no more truthful than americans, they are fully controlled by the authorities.
And this is clear that controlling electronic voting is an easy task, I being IT specialist know it well.
of course you know better than me living here
Oh but you, of all people, ought to know that the place of living does not necessarily influence one’s thinking, remember Lenin in Zurich? Or Dostoevsky maybe?
I never emigrated from Russia, my great grandparents left from Novorossiisk to avoid being slaughtered by your party Chekists. At least we kept our faith in five generations (we still speak Russian at home, including my children). And at least my ancestors did not bring down the Russian Empire but served it with their lives.
Also, if you do not want to go through the courts, what do you suggest: storming the Winter Palace (Kremlin) again? Or maybe a “Russian Maidan”?
Last time you guys had a shot at this, we had the worst century in our history.
In fact, I was born where I was born because of your “political forefathers” (the Bolsheviks), along with another 1.5 million Russians. To now hear you talk about where I live is rather ironical, is it not?
So, let me ask you this: who is more Russian, you or I?
You are a Russian in Russia, I am a Russian in exile. Which is harder?
Of course, I do NOT speak for all Russians, but neither do you, even if you live in Russia and you are the one who started with the “we Russians”.
Chubais or Venediktov or Navalnyi also live in Russia, so don’t pull this one on me, as it is utterly unconvincing.
But should you, Communists, ever come to power again, please consider me your direct enemy (недобитый белобандит и злостный антисоветчик – an unfinished/unkilled white bandit and a malicious anti-Soviet activist) which is what your party correctly considered me before 1991.
See you in the trenches :-)
Andrei
Don’t put all Russians into the “we” bracket. The communist traitors have destroyed the country, quite literally by causing its break up, the majority of sane Russians with a good memory are not about to repeat the experience.
I fully concur. Communism is to Russia what a malignant tumor is to healthy tissue: they DO have a lot in common, but the former is a death threat to the latter, precisely for this reason.
However, I don’t believe that any Communist party (KPRF or other) will ever come to power again in Russia.
The absolute horrors of the 20th century ending in a disgraceful collapse have left no illusions about this, at least amongst educated Russians.
Ваши слова, да Богу в уши, Андрей!
____
Approximate translation: “From your mouth to God’s ears, Andrei.”
I don’t think the U.S. is going to leave ROK anytime soon and it would be a massive mistake if it did. Koreans are still very much loyal to the U.S. and have no love for Japan or China. The older generation remembers the U.S. saving them from invasion (Japan, NK, China) and the younger generation is accepting the anti-China propaganda. If the U.S. left Afghan-style, it would be a massive slap in the face for Korea and Koreans will never forget it. Koreans are very much loyal to their allies and don’t forgive those who betray them.
maybe you are right.
But I don’t believe that most folks in the ROK believe in the Japanese or Chinese threat. China is a crucial economic partner, as for the Japanese, they are now spiritually/culturally “broken” by the US so the “Japanese threat” would be only a “US threat” in reality.
my 2cts
I agree: Japan is quite the lapdog for the US. The average citizen believes in the good intentions of the US, and I think they are absolutely right in their gratitude for 76 years of peace. The things that the US compelled them to do in the years after the war (renounce war, institute some basic democratic functions, deny the Emperor’s divinity) were a huge relief to most of the citizens, and they prospered abundantly.
From my perspective here, I cannot imagine the US getting ousted from or leaving ROK. I have friends there and have spent some time in ROK and my general impression is that they still have high regard for the US, and for similar reasons, they have higher regard for Japan than they usually let on. It would be an enormous shock to everyone in Japan if the US were to abandon ROK. I believe it would force a crisis here, and nationalistic elements could gain the upper hand.
I could see the US hollowing out its involvement in Korea, perhaps taking steps to set the stage for reuniting the peninsula.
Allies is one thing but you agree South Koreans see and reflect on what the hell is going on. Just like their brothers and sisters in the North.
There is a lot of simmering anti-US feeling in Korea, in my experience. Also keep in mind that Koreans have not forgotten Theodore Roosevelt’s betrayal of pledges to Korea when he gifted their country Imperial Japan.
@BillB I had forgotten about the Roosevelt betrayal. With 30,000 U.S. soldiers in ROK, I agree that there would be a lot of anti-US feelings. I remember seeing no foreigners allowed signs at some bars in Ulsan (a major port city) and there was the anti-US beef protests fifteen years ago.
I also agree with you Saker that the Koreans are very good at looking long-term. They are also a small country between two larger powers (China & Japan) and generally have a realistic outlook of foreign policy. The Americans were useful as a good buffer for ROK and ROK proved their loyalty to the US in the Vietnam War. I never thought of the Japanese as culturally ‘broken’ by the U.S. but I guess that took place in the ’80s. The worrying element in ROK are local evangelicals with American money, connections, and ‘values’.
As an American who lived in Daegu, SK for a couple of years, I hope that the Korean leadership finds a way to get rid of the American occupation while maintaining their independence from China, Japan, and Russia. Koreans are very proud and know how to suffer in order to achieve good results. if the US won’t back them or provide them with any positive benefit, then they will get rid of the American forces. Korea has the same view of China, Japan, Russia, and DPRK.
The latest propaganda in the Korean media is China claiming to have invented kimchi (Korean national dish) and hanbok (traditional clothing). There is a lot of shared history between the two countries before the modern nation-state. Here is an interesting interview of Korean’s views of China on the street.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Jorm1di7uA
I have also enjoyed Daniel Dumbrill’s take on the situation in China. This is a wonderful analysis of some of the anti-China propaganda coming out of China.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=od6Js490cWI
Saker, I am relatively new to your blog and am unsure of your policy of sharing links, especially to Youtube. I love your work and always learn a lot from your analysis. I may live in Zone A (currently) but I hope to keep my mind in Zone B.
Saker, I am relatively new to your blog and am unsure of your policy of sharing links, especially to Youtube.
Then WELCOME!
As for the rules, you can see them all here: /moderation-policy/
YT links, with comments (like you did) are absolutely fine.
Here is what I would object to:
1) shamelessly promoting other sites
2) links with no explanation added
So you are fine :-)
Kind regards and, again, welcome!
Andrei
German elections
Three coalitions are likely
SPD, Greens and FDP – 30% probability in my opinion
CDU/CSU, Greens and FDP – probability in my opinion 40%
SPD – CDU/CSU – probability in my opinion 20%
New elections – probability in my opinion 10%.
The Greens want to push through their neoliberal and crazy agenda.
But this will only work if electricity and petrol prices rise massively.
The end of the German economy.
I see black for Europe, Germany, Berlin.
It will probably also mean the end of the EU.
With every generation of politicians, the corruption and stupidity of politicians increases.
very interesting!
thank you!
The Fourth Reich destroys itself with relatively few shots being fired, and only, though still sadly, in the former The Ukraine, now CIA Nulandistan. A few generations of US occupation has turned the former enemy into mush.
In discussion of the Australian yellow submarines, both Saker and Martyanov have yet to mention the “lillypad” that was announced about 2 years ago.
The huge US base being built in north west Western Australia.
This will house missiles, and now that Australian nuclear virginity is being fingered away, we can assume the lillypad will have newks.
Along with Pine Gap, Australia is slowly adjusting from a slumbering confidence of being at the arse end of the world, of little strategic interest to anyone, to slowly comprehending that in WW3, we will be a major theatre.
Also to mention Australia’s large uranium deposits.
Australia was always so vehemently anti unranium, now to acquire nuclear powered subs without a murmur.
And of course, to the non thinking public, there is not much between nuclear powered and nuclear armed.
It’s all newks…
Now that I question everything……. why was Australia so religiously neurotically anti newk?
In whose interest was that?
Thank you!
Maybe you can explain this to me: how is it that in most things NZ is just as insane as AUS, but not in the nuclear topic. IIRC NZ does not even allow USN ships to dock in NZ because the US refuses to say whether there are nukes on board or not and NZ declared itself nuke-free.
Why that difference?
Whatever may be the case, if the Kiwis see large mushrooms in the western skies, they will be happy that they showed a better sense of self-preservation than their Aussie neighbors….
Yes Saker, you do remember correctly. Unless the US declares a ship is conventially powered and without nuclear weapons on board, it will nof be allowed into NZ waters. This policy all but wrecked the ANZAC Military alliance back in the 80’s.
This policy still retains broad support in NZ, and if any party in power tries to change it, there will be a very big backlash and consequent electoral price to pay. No party has even suggested tampering with it. I know we are still in the 5 Eyes, but there is no hunger among the general population to move any closer than that. Also presently no enthusiasm for turning China into an enemy. This is how it stands at the moment, Hopefully it doesn’t change.
As to why AU goes opposite, they’ve always yearned to join themselves at the hip to a major power, first the UK, then after WW2 the US. it seems to be hard wired into their DNA now. That’s my thinking anyway.
Well, I sincerely hope that the people of NZ will not allow this policy to change, especially when they see the consequences for AUS (war or not war – threatening and constantly provoking China is plain stupid).
Cheers
The reason is simple: the imbeciles have that imbecilly idea that NZ can be their sanctuary in case of a full blown global or at least western collapse – either nuclear, economical or financial. Thousands of the US 1% have been buying real estate and similar assets in NZ for at least 20 years.
NZ might find itself a nuclear target anyway, for entirely different reasons: A disproportionate number of globalists have set up little bunkers and luxury residences there. A tempting target, with so many of them in one place…
It’s a sobering reminder that when you lie down with dogs, you get up with fleas: Having “ultra-wealthy” neighbourhoods could well turn out to be a huge liability for NZ.
Any nuclear incident in Australia would also impact New Zealand as the prevailing winds would blow any radiation directly their way.
They’re essentially hostages to any attack on or accident in Australia.
I think a lot of US billionaires own a home in NZ as a safe haven. It might be the best place for them to go if NA somehow becomes uninhabitable. So they clearly dont want it destroyed in a nuclear war.
why wouldn’t China just refuse to take any – coal / iron ore / natural gas / sheep etc for five years and let the locals get rid of the government that supports the USA?
seems there are loads of places to get anything that Australia produces
Dear David,
Do you remember ‘Pig-Iron Bob’?
Robert Menzies sold ‘pig-iron to the Japanese prior to WWII. Some of that iron came back to Australia.
How a country, with 25mm people and an economy dependent upon exports, will afford SSNs CAPEX and OPEX is a complete mystery to me. Unless this is a ruse, and the USA will foot the bill for most of it?
Unfortunately the current mob in power are the same ones that Uncle Sam convinced to sign up for F-35s after the previous Labor party halted military spending. That at a time when they claimed poor and cut health and social services but when the Yanks come a knocking the Murdoch backed politicians happily comply.
The same mob created a Home Security like agency that stopped the illegal migrant boats with forceful turn backs, housing refugees (majority financial migrants to be fair) on Manus and Christmas Island to the criticism of Human Rights and UN. Same agency allowed a known terrorist to take hostages at the Lindt Cafe resulting in deaths as the special police botched the operation.
Same mob agreed to purchase missiles again from Uncle Sam to counter China who is one of our biggest trading partners and after botching the Sub deal with the French, have now decided to break the dodgy deal and acquire nuclear subs from the UK/US during a time of national crisis as half the current is in lockdown and small business unable to open, plus mass indoctrination forcing vaccinations whilst forbidding medical practitioners from issuing medical exemptions or alternative treatments…
Welcome to the terror dome that is Australia!
Dear Saker,
All that is very good..
..but something was discussed between the russians and “americans” in that recent sumit. What Was It?
I also think there was.
I have no idea WHAT was discussed but I do what know what was either not discussed or, if it was, rejected by Russia: separating from China.
That is a stupid US delusion which will never happen.
US politicians don’t understand much to begin with, but they sure don’t understand Asia and its history.
En français il y a une expression que j aime bien qui résume la situation:
Les temps difficiles créent des hommes forts.
Les hommes forts créent des temps faciles.
Les temps faciles créent des hommes faibles.
Les hommes faibles créent des temps difficiles.
Je pense que dans les pays occidentaux on a une élite composée de personnes très faibles issues de périodes faciles (40 ans de croissance économique et de développement entre 1950 et 1980) qui sont en train de créer à nouveau des temps très difficiles.
Ce que je ne sais pas c’est si ces nouveaux temps difficiles vont créer une génération de personnes suffisement fortes pour éviter la catastrophe.
Pour le moment je dirais que la partie est mal engagée.
Yandex translation. Mod:
In French there is an expression that I like that summarizes the situation:
Hard times create strong men.
Strong men create easy times.
Easy times create weak men.
Weak men create difficult times.
I think that in Western countries we have an elite composed of very weak people from easy periods (40 years of economic growth and development between 1950 and 1980) who are creating very difficult times again.
What I don’t know is whether these new hard times will create a generation of people strong enough to avoid disaster.
At the moment I would say that the party is poorly engaged.
Merci Laurent!
Que penses-tu de la possibilité théorique d’un coup d’état en France?
Les généraux parlent d’une guerre civile possible, se pourrait-il que ces avertissements soient aussi une menace?
Amitiés,
Andrei
—-
Translation:
Thanks Laurent!
Question: what do you think of the idea of a coup of some kind in France?
The generals spoke of a possible civil war, could that be a type of threat?
Kind regards
Andrei
Je n’avais pas vu que vous m’aviez répondu.
Ecoutez je ne prends pas très au sérieux les lettres des généraux pour plusieurs raisons.
-> il s’agit pour leur grande majorité de généraux en retraite qui ne commandent aucune unité.
-> histotiquement l’armée francaise est légaliste ce qui reduit fortement la propabilité d’un coup d’état.
-> ils attaquent beaucoup l’islam et l’immigration sans dénoncer les responsables (communaute des lumières, interventions militaires dans le monde arabe, appartenance à l UE et à l otan etc).
Ce qui est certain est qu’une partie de la société veut du changement et que le pays devient de plus en plus instable surtout à cause de la profonde incompétence de la classe dirigente. Les gens qui vivent dans les grandes villes sont devenus incompatibles avec ceux qui vivent dans les campagnes. On assiste aussi à l’émergence d’un communautarisme très fort qui crée plusieurs sociétés également incompatibles.
Malheureusement le pouvoir médiatique est totalement controle et nous sommes recouverts d’une épaisse propagande tous les jours. De plus le pouvoir politique est totalement verouillé.
Je pense que le pays va connaitre des temps difficiles. Je considère que le scénario le plus probable est une dégradation plus ou moins rapide du pays. Plus ou moins la poursuite de ce qu’il se passe depuis 20 ans. Je ne crois pas à un coup d’état: les généraux en active sont plus des hommes politiques que des soldats et partagent la meme idéologie que la classe politique.
Pour résumer je ne suis pas optimiste. Je pense que comme vous le dites pour les USA la seule possibilité d’avoir un changement rapide serait par un choc externe. Cependant étant donnée la nature de ce choc externe (grande guerre) je ne pense pas que cela soit souhaitable.
Yandex translation. Mod:
I didn’t see that you answered me.
Look, I don’t take the generals ‘ letters very seriously for a number of reasons.
– > the vast majority of them are retired generals who do not command any units.
– > histotically the French army is legalistic which greatly reduces the propability of a coup d’état.
– > they attack Islam and immigration a lot without denouncing those responsible (Enlightenment community, military interventions in the Arab world, membership of the EU and nato etc).
What is certain is that part of society wants change and that the country is becoming more and more unstable especially because of the profound incompetence of the ruling class. People who live in big cities have become incompatible with those who live in the countryside. We are also witnessing the emergence of a very strong communitarianism which creates several equally incompatible societies.
Unfortunately the media power is totally controlled and we are covered with thick propaganda every day. Moreover, political power is totally locked.
I think the country is going to have difficult times. I consider that the most likely scenario is a more or less rapid degradation of the country. More or less the continuation of what has been happening for 20 years. I do not believe in a coup: active generals are more politicians than soldiers and share the same ideology as the political class.
To sum up I am not optimistic. I think that as you say for the USA the only possibility of having a quick change would be by an external shock. However given the nature of this external shock (great war) I do not think it is desirable.
Winter, one of Russia’s natural allies, will dictate the NS-2 operations.
Europe can hate Russia all it wants, but frozen gonads and icy buttocks, electric shortages and factories working part time will cause Russian gas to flow full pipeline.
Market prices are sky high because the loons running the EU nations have not kept their gas storage tanks full. So shortages drive the price, not the Russians.
Biden has been very helpful by shutting significant oil and gas production in the US. Instead of being an LNG exporter, the US will be importing fuel. It has been buying Russian oil. Maybe Biden will move the production of natural gas so low in the US, Russian LNG will be imported. For the last two winters, Massachusetts has imported LNG from Russia. US may have plenty of gas, but they don’t have plenty of ship specialized for LNG.
Yup, all true!
The Winter will, of course, help Russia (and hammer the Ukies in a major way).
And there is also this: global warming is very good news for Russia: more arable land, the north waterway from Europe to Asia, easier extraction of natural resources, etc. etc. etc.
The future for Russia looks better than in decades or even centuries (not that this will ever erase the total horror of the 20th century).
Hugs
Yes, absolutely Saker.
I read that with climate change (man-made or not) many countries will become very hot, facing forest fires, droughts etc, while large parts of Russia will become quite pleasant… Maybe one day, the Arctic will become the new Mediterranean…
The ‘man-made’ part of climate change (quite suddenly and not surprisingly no longer called ‘global warming’) is caused by intentional geo-engineering perpetrated by the usual suspects during the last decennia (since when many con-trails no longer disappeared after a few minutes).
Climate has always changed, and according to several solar studies there’s more chance of a global cooling down than the feared warming and that in a not very far future.
So don’t stop breathing, CO2 is good for the planet’s plant life and thus good for us. ;-)
It is not all roses! Don’t forget that the melting permafrost is creating havoc amongst the structures of pipelines, oil and gas installations, etc. Much of the infrastructure will have to be rebuilt, from what I have read.
you are absolutely right, but ON BALANCE this is a mostly positive development for Russia, especially when compared to the EU/US.
but, remember, Russians have a lot of money and China even much more.
also, the warming climate might create a drop in temperatures in Europe if the Gulf Stream changes.
Indeed. I recall about ten years ago, some clever journalist asked VVP a presumed “gotcha” question as to whether he “believed” in global warming. His reply, as best I recall, delivered in his inimitable deadpan manner, was something like: “Yes, certainly—and thank God! We can grow more crops, and spend less on furs.”
Trump was correct, in a convoluted sort of way, that Russia has Europe by the balls on energy. Of course, Russia has never reneged on a contract, but that doesn’t mean they can’t strike a hard bargain. During Trump’s sturm und drang phase, the US was still importing a lot of Russian oil and gas. US fracking produces the wrong kind of oil, at the wrong price, and the lack of pipeline and port infrastructure in the US was always a major limiting factor. Under Biden’s green deal this will accelerate massively. I would expect the Russian deals with the US to be even harder – payment in Rubles or gold. And easy to ship via the Northern Sea route with no intermediaries. If anything, the US will be forced to pay for the security of the NSR. The West has committed suicide; the rest is inevitable.
Shortly after year 2000 passed without ushering in the end of the world, I was warning some friends in an Eastern country yet to become ‘European’ and ‘Atlantic’ that Russians have their hands on the tap of gas and oil and that their wet dreams that ‘Europe cum NATO’ would repel the ‘Kalmyk’ hordes beyond the confines of ‘Europe’ and throw and endless bonanza at them, were just that, wet dreams.
From what I understand, EU is not giving NS2 “regulatory approval”.. red tape is preventing the filling of the pipeline…?
https://www.pipeline-journal.net/news/nord-stream-2-now-facing-regulators
Of course Russia is to blame for “manipulating” prices…
https://www.euractiv.com/section/energy/news/us-blame-russia-for-manipulating-europe-gas-prices-moscow-retorts-the-eu-messed-it-up/
Surreal…
Well, I wish the EU “greens” a very fun winter.
I know Russia will have a ball watching them trying to undo reality :-)
I am afraid they will be sitting in the warm pondering about how advantageous for the environment it is when lower class folks have to freeze.
sadly, you are quite correct.
but then the “Serfs” might revolt :-)
you know, an internal contradiction Hegelian style
@Saker
There are reports that Russia’s oil deposits would deplete in the next 30 years.
https://www.rt.com/business/535384-russia-oil-reserves-last-decades/
They need to intensify the drive for economic diversification.
Saker, from what I have read, ukraine could have a very ‘hot’ winter: aren’t Ukrainians due for yet another hike in their energy prices next month, i.e. beyond breaking point, such that, their only option is to make things super hot for the rada etc: when they feel the heat, they will see the light.
They already know, recently they had to turn to coal fired power-plants to make up for the green-energy failure of their renewable energy junk. They are worse idiots than f-tards.
The EU has delayed NS2 until Merkel has gone. Now Merkel is no longer there to defend NS2, and Annalena Baerbock of the German Green party has said if the Greens are in government they will stop NS2.
Instead of energy being a technical problem – what are the energy needs and what are the energy sources – the European Union has made energy a political problem – coal bad, sun and wind good. Russian gas through Ukraine good, Russian gas through NS2 bad.
With civil servants like this, failure is unavoidable.
“US may have plenty of gas, but they don’t have plenty of ship specialized for LNG.”
So, US has capability to build fleet of SSNs for Australia, but can not produce LNG transports? Something’s fishy is under the surface there.
Not the subs, its just Perfidious Albion phishing for an extra tax on their unwilling vassals.
When money is collected, there will be no need to hurry build of real SSNs.
Aussies won’t complain, as maintenance of those vessels is very expensive.
SSNs are, essentially, derived from government contracts whereas LNG ships would be totally private (no guarantees of profit, no protection from losses). Defense industry is basically a State entity (w/o the general public having any direct benefits).
It is possible that The Netherlands will re-open some gas fields that it was intent on closing.
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/harsh-truth-behind-europes-energy-crisis
and how much will they produce and at what cost?
Well some European countries have seen the light and Hungary has signed a 15 year deal with Gazprom today – by passing Ukraine:
https://tass.com/economy/1342991
The gas will start flowing as early as Friday, via the TurkStream and gas pipelines in South Eastern Europe (Bulgaria and Serbia).
The Dutch gas fields have been depleted years ago and are being used as a buffer pumping imported (mostly Russian) gas back into these fields.
This pumping up and back in has worsened the problem of soil deformation and earthquakes. Thousands of homes have been damaged by the movements and instability caused by this.
A lot of the Chinese trading can be and is routed north these days with the development of the northern shipping and train routes by Russia. It would be practically impossible to strangle China there, due to being easier to protect those routes both for China (for some part) and (especially for) Russia. Not to mention the increase in trading between China and Russia and the improved energy and natural resources security of China due to those close and good relations with Russia (unlike foolish Europe). This is part of the big changes and shifts in the world and related.
Yes, southern warmer water routes are still important but not existential anymore. And it makes sense the US will go there (warm waters are their main strength), because doing such tricks in the north would look pathetic.
In this strategic collaboration between Russia and China, they can find means (and should) to increase their strength in the warmer waters. I’m not very versed in this, but the combination of SSKs and SSNs (and possibly other ASW capabilities) can help, plus developing some naval bases in the area (China and also Russia seem to be going this way), possibly Russia sharing some technology with China and/or leasing SSNs. It definitely would be good for Russia to use some of the industrial capacity of China to help building additional modern SSNs (at least the “crude” part of the construction and install all the weapons in Russia). There’s a clear enhancement in Russia’s shipbuilding capacity. More is needed, though.
Also, China and Russia (especially in the nuclear field) can use some of their economical instruments and strengths to make it very hard for Australia to accomplish such a project of owning and maintaining SSNs. China can (metaphorically) sink Australia in economic terms.
It would be practically impossible to strangle China there, due to being easier to protect those routes both for China (for some part) and (especially for) Russia
Right now, the Northern shipping route is a project in development and it is dwarfed by all the trade on the SLOCs near the Chinese coast. Just cutting of trade between the ROC and the PRC could have devastating effects on the world economy.
This is a double edged sword. If AUKUS decide to blockade all the SLOCs to China then the latter can respond by mounting similar actions on the SLOCs between US allies S Korea, Japan (plus Taiwan) and the rest of the world. Having a major advantage in submarines wouldn’t help much when most of those latter SLOCs lie within comfortable range of the Chinese anti-ship missile arsenal. The result of such actions by both sides would most likely be the total collapse of global trade and trigger highly negative consequences for the US dollar and its economy. Yes, this does amount to something of a “scorched earth” policy but the Russians do have a lot of experience with this kind of warfare! AUKUS not so much…….
Also, cutting off SLOCs in the South China Sea would mean disrupting all the seaborne trade between ASEAN and China which is sizeable. Regional powers like Indonesia and Vietnam are not going to sit back and allow this to happen. Especially if one of the blockaders happens to be Australia – a country that commands very little affection or respect from the peoples and nations of SE Asia. No nation in Asean is going to participate in any kind of blockade. AUKUS will be lucky to even get India to sign on to this.
all quite true!
thanks for these points.
Andrei, a couple of questions for you:
1. Blocking of sea lanes (a naval blockade) is an act of war under international law. Before we talk of the consequences for world trade and for other Asian states and their reactions etc., shouldn’t we first be asking ourselves WHAT will China likely do? That to my mind is the most important question because on that will depend the future course of world inter-state relations and history. Your response/thoughts please, thanks you.
2. Given US superiority in subs and attack naval technologies, what military options do you think the Chinese possess?
Thank you.
If we’re making a list, Meng Wanzhou’s very quick release from Canada (with no guilty plea).
Last week, the newly constituted CELAC – huge changes in Latin America and Mexico pivoting to their fraternal countries (Organization of American States will be mainly abandoned).
Mali throwing out French soldiers and using Russian private military to help with their issues.
The Russian going viral hastag effort: #UNCharter is our rules.
The US Covid meeting at the UN attended by less than 10 countries while we were promised 100.
Organization of American States will be mainly abandoned
GOOD! This was a mostly a tool for the US to control Latin America.
CELAC has been working for some time now, The Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC), since 2010. It was a project of Marcelo Ebrard to try and relaunch it as a counterweight to the OAS. It seems to have folded before taking off in the new shape, which was planned to exclude the anglo zionists from up North.
To gain independence from the North american Neo Colonists is a tough dream to accomplish. Nice try Ebrard, he folded saying that the project was not meant to replace the OAS. Colombia, Brasil, Uruguay, and in a way Argentina torpedoed the project. Every top politician in Latin America is blackmailable, if there is such a word, or expendable. The tiny “democracies” continue to struggle and are always on the lookout for some handout from any Caudillo that dreams of independence for Latin America.
This time it was Mexico with Lopez Obrador and Ebrard. AMLO has been losing support as he continues to deploy the Neo Liberal agenda of the feminists in power, Mexico a conservative, catholic, traditionalist, quasi patriarchal society, is in the hands of the feminists from Morena headed by two jewesses, Mexico City governor Claudia Scheinbaum and Yeidckol Polevnsky Gurwitz who headed the party early on from its inception.
Scheinbaum is being touted as “La Presidenta”, heir apparent to AMLO.
Like many Latin American heads of state, he started as a lion against the Yankee empire, and has turned to a pussycat, toeing the line set by Washington, the IMF, the World Bank, The Climate fatalists, and the new sheriff in town, the UN¨s WHO.
Every LatinAmerican country lives on the three theological virtues – Hope, Faith and Charity. and that is it.
It continues to be exploited by oligarchs native and imported, by the multinationals, and the banking kingpins.
Scheinbaum has an interesting past, I remember reading, maybe some three years ago,that her Bio stated her parents were of German and Croatian origin, both Jews, who emigrated after WWII. I might be wrong, the doubt comes because now her wilipedia page states that one of her grandfathers was from Lithuania and emigrated after the Bolshevik revolution, and the other from Bulgaria, migrated during WWII to escape the holocaust.
The Latin American leaders are chosen by the US embassies, they receive training in the USA, even if it is only for a couple of weeks in some phony summer course in some university, and that is all that. is needed. Being a born again christian, as AMLO seems to be, or a jew, is the cherry on top.
Those countries that dare to challenge the hegemon suffer, and suffer, and suffer, if they don´t have some leverage, some power, or some dignity.
“Poland of the Pacific” – exactly! I fear a deal has been done to carve up Australia between China and the US. China gets the iron ore and gold mines. US Big Pharma gets total privatisation of Australia’s Medicare by end of universal treatment via vaccine passports
§§§§China gets the iron ore and gold mines.
Strongly dispute this.
The US base in north west Western Australia protects (controls) (appropriates) Australian iron ore, oil, gold, diamonds, uranium.
Also the Ord River irritated agricultural region.
The base also defends Pine Gap.
The USA /UK is not intending to share/ surrender anything of value in Aust to China (or to Australians for that).
https://www.rt.com/shows/renegade-inc/534523-afghanistan-graveyard-empires-us-withdrawal/
First guest on the above, Scott Ritter, reiterates his usual. But second guest, Alex Krainer, pretty much nails the whole ball of wax in remarkably few words. (But IMO is wrong when he suggests that a better capitalist arrangement as described by Richard Werner might succeed……… but it wouldn’t, for exactly the same reason that Krainer states in the same interview — that it requires perpetual growth. I will add that it wouldn’t be a solution even if it was practiced on an earth that had one, and only one nation that had absolutely no “external” competitors.) However, what Krainer says near the end of the interview is exactly right on. The fatally-flawed, mortally wounded present system is about to fail and It is the common people who not only have to imagine a better system, but bring it into being. The usual-suspect, hightly educated slaves of their Elite masters will never be able, let alone willing to do it. The good thing is that there are a few living examples of a better arrangement that have been in existence for over 50 years.
Dear Saker,
A lovely description of the various chess moves taking place at the moment and ignoring the various ‘checker’ moves taking place within America and Australia.
Now I am merely a retired ‘Plod’ with no military experience except in firing a 3″ mortar for five years with 5RVR, but I have read a little bit. Anyway here goes;
Prior to the 1990’s Australia was on good terms with Indonesia, that is until Gareth Evans became our Foreign Minister and permitted his arrogance to override his little intelligence, and chuffed the Indonesians somewhat. The previous experience of the Indonesians is that they like being on the ‘winning’ side, which meant that they sided with the US, and permitted themselves to be abused, thus when Australia needed their own 911, it occurred in Indonesian territory, in Bali. Again, Indonesia received a warning from Washington three days prior to the event, so the Indonesians are very well aware of what has happened around them, which explains Aceh.
The question is, who will Indonesia side with in the coming future? It will not be the losing side, but will it be China, Russia or Iran? I believe it will be China. In this unfolding chess game, will Indonesia be able to negate the Australian sub move? I’ll let the experts predict that one, but it is interesting.
There is bad blood between Australia and Indonesia dating back decades, as I know you must be aware. Australia has viewed their heavily populated, close northern neighbour as a potential adversary all this time. As does Indonesia of Australia. None of this helped by Australia (and New Zealands) involvement, with total support by Bill Clinton at the time, in wrestling East Timor away from Indonesia. The military of both Australia and New Zealand were involved in this endeavor. Indonesia will immediately see this AUKUS alliance, and possession of advanced SSNs by Australia as directly threatening.
So my money is on Indonesia very quickly siding with China. They really have no other options, in my opinion.
Dear North of the Antarctic,
I am aware of Tony Pitt’s push in the 1990’s in regard to Indonesia. I am also aware of the donation of West Papua to appease Indonesia, as well as the grab of the oil fields in the Timor Sea. And then there was the incident of the five Australian ‘journalists’ executed back in the 70’s where Kerry Packer had some involvement, though I know very little about this. And again ASIO’s involvement during the Howard era in regard to the refugee boats from Indonesia, and a bit o’ sabotage that ensued.
But if the US does a Churchill on Australia and needs our troops in and around China, then the Indonesians would counter this move by simply hinting at an invasion of our north western areas.
Thus I must concur with your last statement.
The question is, who will Indonesia side with in the coming future? It will not be the losing side, but will it be China, Russia or Iran? I believe it will be China.
I really don’t know, this is outside my area of expertise.
In this unfolding chess game, will Indonesia be able to negate the Australian sub move?
I don’t see how. China needs Russia and Russia will deliver.
China needs Russia and Russia will deliver.
I totally agree. However when the US falls there will be many tribes remembering old wounds who will haste to feed off their oppressors, and the likes of Indonesia will be there. And China will have no Saracens though I think Russia would have.
Where would Indonesia prefer to locate its surplus population? China or Australia? Take a look at any map. You don’t need much ‘expertise’ to make an educated guess.
You don’t need much ‘expertise’ to make an educated guess.
Maybe you don’t, but I do.
Speaking of which, can we assume you are an expert in Indonesian policies?
I shall add my knowledge to the pool of debate re Indonesia. 1980s 1990s. I worked and lived in the region 70s 80s 90s
Indonesian nation is hugely populated crowded and spread over many tiny islands and administered in ways outside of western thinking. Extreme wealth and extreme poverty with few social services if any. Community living cares for all. Many language groups, many cultures and many religions dominated by islam The military – state of the art – is mainly used to contain the millions of many different cultures. Its weapons focusing within.
The Indonesian military occupation of west Papua administered by Indonesia and bordering with Papua New Guinea (PNG) is violent as is its previous occupation of East Timor was. All three nations are very rich in minerals and being exploited in usual ways. The islands are extremely rugged and mountainous and lush. Very beautiful with loads of wild life – birds in particular.
Australia built in 70s a huge military airfield (with deep underground nuclear bunkers) in Lae PNG north coast of PNG which doubled as civilian airfield too. ( bunkers were secret until a group of bored expat kids broke in during construction and exposed all. They did time and were deported bac to oz) Today ?
Australia is very wary of Indonesia militarily. relations are cordial.
NZ universities post grad educate some Indonesian Military officers in strategic studies who keep to themselves.
Wealthy Indonesian families pay big fees for sons and daughters to be educated in either Oz or NZ.
just a token
Indonesia is trying to colonize Papua and steal its wealth plus its already sending/allowing folk to migrate there despite Paupuans resistance. Destination for the “surplus” population.
The suggestion the asian world would like to move to China or Oz is a bit wishful thinking. A part from the usual migration to NZ Oz and other places my contacts with them is definitely NOT China but peaceful migration to Oz Kiwi lands – wealthy do this.
A military invasion of Oz is not realistic to then relocate millions.
Papua New Guinea the other half of Papua is first choice because it is there geographically and close to Indonesia…. Plus more easy to administer from Jakarta.
Dear Ross,
Thanks for your Input. I remember appearing at a forum in Mackay in 2004 where a local businessman, Mick Hodge who also spent time in Indonesia told he he had heard an Indonesian speaking and stating that there were only two ‘communist countries in South East Asia, Vietnam and Australia. A nice point to consider.
Where are all these extra SSNs for AU supposed to come from? It will take the better part of a decade to build them due to shipyard and logistics constraints.
The US could lease them Los Angeles class subs, no as good as Seawolfs or Virginias, but still a very serious threat for the Chinese.
SSN Sub are intended to attak both land and surface target. I guess they should not be viewed in isolation but rather in relation to aircraftcarriers. SSN will not win the war.
The big issue for the US Navy is a CVN in the seabed and hundred of sailors dead. On the other hand a victory at sea will not be useful for the US. They have to put troops in the ground: Who? No one.
Very interesting. Thanks a lot.
SSN will not win the war.
Correct, but in case of a PRC vs Taiwan+US+Japan, they would represent a major threat to the PRC.
The good news is that the USN surface fleet is basically useless, thanks to Russian hypersonic weapons and, possibly, Chinese missiles.
And if the carriers have to stay away, then air superiority would have to go to China.
So there is definitely hope.
The SSN’s are not intended for war, they are intended to keep any commercial shipping from traveling to and from China through the Indian ocean. Probably about 70% of China’s trade uses this route at present. Just sinking 1 private container ship will result in say 60% of the commercial traffic not wanting to use that route anymore due to high insurance costs. So it will only be Iranian and Chinese commercial vessels which will run the gauntlet of the SSN’s.
Then there is also the definite possibility that India won’t take kindly to excess Chinese military vessels plying the Indian ocean too close to India, so driving China’s shipping into deeper waters where the SSN’s are waiting. India has the Brahmos missile at its disposal, which together with its su-30 fighters, are perfectly suited to keeping the ocean around it clear of shipping for quite a distance.
China conveniently made an enemy of India, too conveniently some might say. Were the world’s 2 countries with the biggest populations to nuke each other senseless, the expression “what a pleasure” comes to every other countries military minds. One of the goals of the New World Order is depopulation after all.
The release of Meg Wangzu, Huawai. And the answer off china releasing the two canadians kept as .hostages” . Meg return in China as an here, The two Michael have showed themselves .in pitiful moral conditions at their return in Canada.
So about that “inevitable and final explosion (nuclear, economic or social)”…
Maybe a bit of a stupid question – I don’t think you do predictions (for many good reason!) but if you had to bet on this, would you say it would be in the next 6 months, the next 2 years or the next 5 years? I suppose much of this depends on whether or not the Anglos can manage to avoid a major confrontation in the short term. So what would your bet be?
but if you had to bet on this, would you say it would be in the next 6 months, the next 2 years or the next 5 years?
Oh I really cannot call this one since there are way too many variables.
But here is a suggestion: I don’t think Biden will last 4 years. “President Harris” would create a quasi civil war. The next Presidential elections will be inevitably FUBARed .
Neither party seems to have any possible candidate with an IQ over 100 (maybe Gov. DeSantis).
It’s like guessing who will become the Secretary General of the Polituro of the CC of the CPSU after Andropov: a totally useless waste of time, the USSR was going down no matter what.
will it take 1, 2 or 5 years I dunno. But the outcome is not in doubt.
Sorry for this semi-reply, but I really am no prophet :-)
Cheers
This is a good article on the Aussie nuclear subs concept.
The idea of Aussie nuclear subs is only a discussion concept for the next eighteen months. I suspect it was just an excuse to drop the French sub fiasco, the idea of converting a French nuclear sub design to diesel/electric.
Australia’s economy will collapse with falling iron ore prices and falling coal demand. The economy is already on life support due to the Covid fiasco. I am not sure about ‘Poland of the South Pacific’, more like ‘Diego Garcia’ of the South Pacific. Just a US military base, with a couple of rented, old nuclear subs, to be used for ‘training purpose’, while the myth of Aussie nuclear subs is maintained for another five years, before being quietly dropped.
Australia has trouble finding four crews for the small Collins class subs, let alone manning up for 6/8 nuclear subs.
And does anyone want to be a submariner anymore – weeks/months floating around in a sunken tin can. If you are not a psychopath when you get on, there is a good chance you will be when you get off!
Why not buy some Poseidon torpedoes from Russia and have someone sit at a computer station with a cup of coffee. Much more efficient!
The US could lease them Los Angeles class subs, no as good as Seawolfs or Virginias, but still a very serious threat for the Chinese
These new submarines will be Australian on paper only. In reality they will be manned, managed, serviced by US navy. Australia simply doesn’t have enough qualified people for this. Australia reminds me of cat looking at mirror and seeing a lion.
I hope you are right about ROK, but the last time i check, the current more left leaning President is not popular and the next Prez will likely be from the right wing pro US party.
Yes, but unlike the Japanese, the people of the ROK have not been “broken” by the Empire. And they know everything about resistance to foreign invadors, even in terrible conditions.
Remember how they basically told The Donald to get lost during the Olympics?
That was a major warning sign, I think.
I think that the patriotic spirit in both the ROK and the DPKR are strong and they are coalescing, however slowly.
And, let’s be honest here: the partition of Korea was a US engineered obscenity, and the Koreans know that.
As for the “threat from the north”, it is utter bullshit UNLESS, of course, the US or its agents in Korea trigger a war.
The DPRK is un-invadable (terrain), they have some rather decent weapons, enough special forces to flood the south and key cities and factories in the ROK within ARTILLERY range (nevermind their nukes).
As for the ROK, the US “presence” (aka occupation force) is a pure liability (and a shitty “defense” from the DPRK to boot).
The US and the ROC will also compete more and more in the advanced weapon systems market, and Uncle Shmuel will, as always, try to screw them over, further alienating them.
I might be wrong, but I think that there is a very strong anti-US streak running deep in the ROK society, even if, for the time being the Koreans smile and avoid an open crisis. The Koreans, like the Russians and Chinese, are playing a long term game, whereas Uncle Shmuel only has short term reactive quick-fix “solutions”.
My money is on Taiwan reunification first.
-it is easier than Korean since PRC have lots of agents within ROC and a big chunk already in favour of unification. Taiwan has much to lose and lots to gain from unification. One possible scenario- US invades Taiwan to prevent unification and China comes to the rescue. But this would be playing into the US game.
– Reuniting Taiwan will provide the impetus for Korean unification
– Once Taiwan and Korean issues are resolved Japan will automatically follow suit and join China or at least stay neutral
Taiwan first means 3 birds with one stone for China.
The day will come when the majority of Taiwan will ask to be unified with China. Hint… Taiwan has zero resources. Must import all raw materials. TW economy runs on ‘hi-tech’. uh, who produces the RM to feed hi-tech? uh, who is developing an entirely new paradigm to replace silicon? uh, how could a tiny island with declining economy support a military, a social-welfare state, etc?
Taiwan has zero resources
I disagree. Taiwan has all of the following “resources”:
1) it is unsinkable
2) it is under US control
3) it fights a propaganda war
4) it can provide cannon fodder for the Anglos
5) it serves as a superb intelligence base against the PRC
6) it is run by a loyal comprador elite
7) it is form part of a anti-Chinese “belt” (with Japan and, currently, ROK).
The Anglos are willing pour lots of money into Taiwan to maintain these “resources”, especially since Uncle Shmuel can print as much money as he wants.
Being “anti” those who dare to resist the Anglosphere is, by itself, a “salable” “resource” – just look at the 3B+PU and how they “sell” themselves to the Anglos.
Loosing Afghanistan is one thing, but loosing Taiwan would be really bad for the Anglos
Interesting read as always.
The last time I was in Saxony I felt considerable sympathy among the Germans for Russia. I think as far as business concerns go, in particular the energy sector, Germany seems well suited to the concerns of Russia and vice versa. Burning France on the continent may come back to bite the Empire. Western Europe has served a vassal function since the end of the last world war but one doesn’t treat vassals without the pretense of dignity. Especially when there are enormous social issues caused by the empire such as mass emigration and a health and economic crisis in Europe.
Taking these risks shows how desperate the empire is regarding China. The empire knows it only has a short window in dealing with China and probably regards China as the lynchpin to the axis of resistance. Even a BRI at a low capacity is game over for a bankrupt empire. The only card left to play is naval supremacy in this short window.
Domestically the Covid mandate is seriously crazy. Where I work we are already understaffed due to worker shortages and now about half the people I talk to say they are not going to comply with this mandate. Potentially we are going to be about 65% understaffed when the deadline hits. The union is talking about a strike over this issue.
I have talked about before but I feel like saying it again. People really should look into the lobbying group known as PhRMA and their sponsorship of the Biodefense and Pandemic Vaccine and Drug Development Act of 2005 (S. 1873) I know many here like to ask the question cui bono? How much are these pharmaceutical companies making off these vaccines? Can their profits be mandated? Can they be questioned? Please read the key provisions on the wikipedia page for S. 1873 if you don’t have time to read the actual Senate document. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biodefense_and_Pandemic_Vaccine_and_Drug_Development_Act_of_2005
Also there is the question of who and how in regards to this health crisis. I careful reading of this grant for research in China financed by the U.S. government might shed some light.
https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/21055989-understanding-risk-bat-coronavirus-emergence-grant-notice
I know people really don’t like to read but it is important to understand some possibilities. I think if China were doing research on a potential bioweapon in the U.S. and it got out into the American public there is a real possibility this would be regarded as an act of war here.
I hope my comments will not be considered too offensive to the moderation team. I understand the policies here and respect the reasons for them.
I don’t wish to cross any lines, but since you brought it up, I don’t think the CCP released the virus. The Anglo-Zionist Deep State, as well as Big Finance, Big Pharma, and Big Tech, have all profited from this debacle.
I don’t think the CCP released the virus.
Oh, that I TOTALLY agree with you.
I also totally agree. I think the evidence shows that the U.S. is probably responsible for releasing it in China. I would like the Chinese to thoroughly investigate and release their findings.
And any delay in officially recognizing the outbreak was likely due to a concern over any upheavals over it occurring during/following having US military personnel in Country!
In the US the opposition party would be hammering the heck out of something like this: Nationalists would be burning anything Chinese (or anyone who was an “immigrant,” legal or otherwise) to the ground. Imagine if things were switched between the two countries: that China was helping fund a research lab in the US that was working on gain of function research and Chinese military personnel were in the US IN THE SAME location as the lab and there appears a novel virus outbreak in that very area.
In my mind Chinese officials had to be scurrying to basically hide looking like they were responsible for letting the thief into the house. I suspect there was plenty of second-guessing the holding of the Military World Games: who was responsible for that (anyone notice officials losing their jobs)?
So, no, there seems to be no reason whatsoever for the Chinese govt to have been complicit in anything other than trusting the US. The level of evilness of an intentional release was just unthinkable: but history seems to inform that it’s more than possible (thus the Chinese govt CAN be seen as being incompetent in this instance [not going to happen again]).
Outstanding brilliant essay and summary! Thank you for this.
Hey Andrei, I like your style of writing and appreciate the contents just as well.
(You don’t happen to be the Saker’s twin brother? ;-)
I agree that the Anglos (5 eyes, though recently and apparently, just 3 eyes: an issue I hope the Saker will address soon…) are in a smart retreat: cutting loose unnecessary ballast (Europe and MENA), to focus on China and the Western Pacific. Given the last cards the US/UK empire is left with, it seems to me the best way to play them, indeed.
Nevertheless, I believe it can’t be much more than a stay of execution: abandoning Europe (just like Afghanistan) will encourage Europe to regain its sovereignty and (for having been betrayed and dumped, like France currently, not feeling very grateful toward the US any more) team up with the SCO and the BRI. This would strengthen the EurAsian hemisphere and tremendously weaken the already crumbling US/UK empire.
I have a gut-feeling that the geopolitical landscape is going to change very soon, very quickly and very dramatically (like between the fall of the Berlin Wall and the disintegration of the USSR).
(You don’t happen to be the Saker’s twin brother? ;-)
I used the pen name The Saker for a while, it came out of my even earlier “thin anonymity” as “Vineyard Saker” which is just an anagram of a full name: Andrei Raevsky.
I recently decided to mostly stop using the pen name and write as Andrei.
I just felt that it was time to stop using an pen name.
So I am one and the same :-)
cheers
Saker — “…. if the Kiwis see large mushrooms in the western skies, they will be happy that they showed a better sense of self-preservation than their Aussie neighbors….”
Errrrr… much of the time, NZ gets winds from the West.
Kiwis will have no escape from those mushroom clouds.
It is not as if Kiwi preferences can trump Oz stupidity.
Highly likely that Oz will lay seige to NZ to have their way.
Nobody will come to break the seige. Nobody.
You know how sharks eat each other in desperate times?
Except that NZ, in size and temperament, is more whitebait than shark.
NZ will be dragged back into “the family of shared values.”
And shared stupidity.
I did not mean that literally, of course, even the real distances are far beyond the horizon.
Dealing with nuclear fallout is still much preferable to being the actual target.
Look, I am not expressing support for NZ politicians, only saying that as of right now the NZ are better off than the AUS.
Also
I remember Pushkin square in Moscow in 1991 with a HUGE line of people waiting to enter the local McDonalds to get a Big Mac. The sight was pathetic – they looked like slaves waiting in line for some food.
Ten years later, Putin was in power.
So, please, don’t lose hope!
Laurent’s French saying: “Hard times create strong men. Strong men create easy times. Easy times create weak men. Weak men create difficult times.”
Chinese saying: First generation make wealth. Second generation manage wealth. Third generation lose wealth. Repeat.
American saying: Founding generations start nation. Following generations grow nation. Stupid generations build empire. Last generations lose nation. Repeat.
English saying, clogs to clogs in three generations.
For a full understanding of this factual dynamic see Sir John Glubb’s The Fate of Empires (you can track it down online).
I’ll toss an important side note on this: the underlying reason for failure in all cases was that they were operating under the premise of perpetual growth. Glubb didn’t figure this out, but otherwise he provides an excellent overview of the highly predictable parabolic nature (the rise and fall) of empires.
There is a nice visual counterpoint.
The painter Thomas Cole in the early 1800s made two series of paintings on the cycles of nations and of the individual.
The Course of Empire (1833–1836), series of five paintings
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Course_of_Empire_(paintings)
The Voyage of Life (1842), series of four paintings
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Voyage_of_Life
“So, who will be the next one to show Uncle Shmuel to the door? My guess is the Republic of Korea.”
My guess is Taiwan.
Why do you think that?
Copied from another post.
*******
My money is on Taiwan reunification first.
-it is easier than Korean since PRC have lots of agents within ROC and a big chunk already in favour of unification. Taiwan has much to lose and lots to gain from unification. One possible scenario- US invades Taiwan to prevent unification and China comes to the rescue. But this would be playing into the US game.
– Reuniting Taiwan will provide the impetus for Korean unification
– Once Taiwan and Korean issues are resolved Japan will automatically follow suit and join China or at least stay neutral
okay, thank you!
This is a misread of India’s situation vis-a-vis China and aims.
Firstly note that the Indian establishment/deep state is quite wary of their US counterparts for historical and realist policy reasons, which is why they have maintained deep ties with Russia (and Lavrov even as of a few months ago refered to India as a “very close, very special privileged partner” one step below China to be sure but above others) even as they expanded their cooperation with the US in light of technological, economic and geopolitical realities.
The problem for India is China which is far stronger than India (India:China :: China decade+ ago:US). Just as China grew wary of an encroaching US, so did India. Starting with deep relations with Pakistan – which like current UkroNazis (in Saker speak) seeking to wage asymmetrical war on Russia, does similarly with India through funding/allowing anti-India extremists (Pakistan:India :: Ukraine:Russia) – China has similarly developed strategic ties with what India regards as its zone of influence/security (Sri Lanka, Maldives, Nepal, Bhutan). Despite this till two years ago, China-India ties were at all time high since 1960 (similar to US-China ties just a few short years ago).
China, as the stronger of the two, should have been more careful about India’s concerns ESPECIALLY as China feels the same way against a stronger US. Yet under Ji, China has become much more aggressive and unsympathetic not just against the US, but all its neighbours, including India. China expanded its already superior infrastructure along the Indo-China border leading to India’s delayed actions in catching up, which then inevitably led to bloody incidents like Galwan (which was a miscalculation by lower level military leaders on both sides).
For India – which has accepted the one China policy, agreed to be silent on Tibetan independence and though hosting the Dalai Lama, ensured he makes no anti-China statements on Indian soil (vs abroad), not joined in the rhetoric vs China on Hong Kong, Taiwan etc – China has been fairly contemptuous in return and steadily encroaching on disputed areas along the border.
Indeed much as how the West practically drove Russia to China (and China to Russia), China has driven India closer to the US despite India’s traditional reluctance. Whether this is part of a deliberate Chinese strategy or simply the blind arrogance inherent in hegemons is difficult to say. China regards India more of a thorn in its march to greatness rather than a serious country whose interests it should consider.
Alienating India by pooh-poohing its legitimate interests – like the West had done Russia considering it a weak and spent force after 1990 and hardly worth thinking about Russia’s national interests – may be Ji’s greatest blunder in the long run.
For India if the choice is between
(a) a multi-polar balanced world (esp with India being one of the poles);
(b) a world with US as hegemon;
(c) a world with China as hegemon;
the preference order is (a) > (b) > (c).
Indeed, for those who seek a truly multi-polar world, rather than a bi-polar one, India’s push back against China might be useful. I’ll go so far as to say that it serves Russian long term interests to have a country like India be a check on China which is no doubt why Russia takes great pains to maintain such a close relationship with India.
India considers itself to be the inheritors and beneficiaries of the East India Company.
China considers itself to be the victims of the East India Company.
Therein lies the problem.
I’m not even sure how to respond to this totally facile view but I’ll try.
Indian ultra-nationalists – the ones in charge right now – let alone Indian nationalists of the Independence era and whose ethos still is part of the Indian establishment, regard the British East Indian Company by which the British entered and started to control various kingdoms in pre-Independence India (and later dissolved as India came under direct British rule) as an imperialist entity (which it proudly declared it was back when the West was fairly honest with its intentions) that overall set back India (by destroying its local manufacturing capabilities, and making it both a place for raw resources and a market for British finished goods ie how colonialism worked).
So Indians don’t have a warm and fuzzy re the East India company any more than the Chinese do, having suffered similar issues with Opium among other goods.
Indeed, post-Independence, Indian and Chinese leaders saw themselves as natural allies as common victims of Western imperialism.
A few things though fractured the relationship: the Chinese reclamation/claims along the Indo-Chinese border whose border drawn up the British, China did not recognize; China’s allying with Pakistan (including key military technology transfers) against India; and finally China’s rapid economic and technological advance leaving India in the dust (China opened up to Western markets in 1976 on, whereas it was not till 1990, India did).
The current tensions are more about China asserting itself as a peer competitor to the US and challenging US hegemony, including asserting itself in its near abroad (South China Sea, Indo-Chinese borders etc) much as the US aimed to do with its Monroe Doctrine before applying it globally.
India, like Russia, sees itself as a unique civilization with its own national security interests. While China has – for purely geopolitical reasons – so far respected Russia’s interests (though note that China is rapidly developing cooperation with Ukraine), it has not with India since for the moment Russia is useful to Chinese interests but apparently India not so much. Indeed much as the West saw a weak Russia in the 90s as an opportunity to contain it once and for all (a project that has largely failed), China thinks this is the perfect geopolitical moment to change the status quo along the China-India border and contain India. Just as Russia, faced with Western pressure turned East, India faced with Chinese ones is turning West.
But both Russia and India seem aware of the dangers of being subsumed by their powerful partners over time, which is why Russia and India maintain a strategic dialogue with each other.
“So Indians don’t have a warm and fuzzy re the East India company any more…”
They may be the designated bad guy and they left a long time ago but it is in their emulation that shows what Indians really think of the Company. They still follow its economic philosophy, its foreign policy and strategic concepts, its industrial policy etc. They even fought in their imperial wars, with the goading of Mahatma Gandhi, no less. They even adopted the English language as their official language, as if India did not have enough languages!! The Indian elites even think in English and not their own language. How much more subservient to the Company concept can you get?
As for the Opium Wars, just remember that the Tatas and probably other families made their fortune from the opium trade with China which allowed them to be what they are today.
***
“A few things though fractured the relationship: the Chinese reclamation/claims along the Indo-Chinese border whose border drawn up the British, China did not recognize; ”
Perhaps this illustrates my point quite well. China does not recognise the edicts of the Company, whereas India does. Not only that, India accepted meekly the partition of the country, based on dubious theology and even more dubious logic. India allowed CIA arms supply to insurgents in Tibet!!!!
Contrast this with China’s position and dealings on border issues.
****
“…and finally China’s rapid economic and technological advance leaving India in the dust (China opened up to Western markets in 1976 on, whereas it was not till 1990, India did).”
Why should this be of concern to India or Indians? Should China have stood still and waited for India to catch up? India continued on the path of the Company, China chose its own route. China decided to play by the Company’s rules and beat them at their own game while India chose to follow the rut carved by the Company and hoped for crumbs.
*****
“The current tensions are more about China asserting itself as a peer competitor to the US and challenging US hegemony, including asserting itself in its near abroad (South China Sea, Indo-Chinese borders etc) much as the US aimed to do with its Monroe Doctrine before applying it globally.”
So China should accept US hegemony? Of course that is what any Company loyalist would say. And why do you assume that China will behave in the same way that the US did or tries to do? Let me guess- because you know of no other model than the Company model. Everything that the Indians know about China has come to them via the Company. It is no surprise that these type of comments are so common with Indians.
*****
“India, like Russia, sees itself as a unique civilization with its own national security interests.”
All countries, by their very existence, have their own national security interests. So, no surprise that India has them.
Unlike China, Russia, US (or even small countries like Nepal or Korea) what India lacks is a sense of itself, its place and role in the world, where it is going, what it needs to do etc. And this is entirely because the Indian elites are still stuck in the Company mindset. It will take Indians at least another generation to get out of this mindset. This might come sooner with the collapse of the US Empire but it will come at a huge psychological blow. The fall of the US Empire will be a bigger psychological blow to Indians that the Americans.
*****
“While China has – for purely geopolitical reasons – so far respected Russia’s interests (though note that China is rapidly developing cooperation with Ukraine), it has not with India since for the moment Russia is useful to Chinese interests but apparently India not so much. Indeed much as the West saw a weak Russia in the 90s as an opportunity to contain it once and for all (a project that has largely failed), China thinks this is the perfect geopolitical moment to change the status quo along the China-India border and contain India. Just as Russia, faced with Western pressure turned East, India faced with Chinese ones is turning West.”
This statement is entirely consistent for someone whose entire worldview is based on what the Company says about China and Russia.
******
“But both Russia and India seem aware of the dangers of being subsumed by their powerful partners over time, which is why Russia and India maintain a strategic dialogue with each other.”
If you have read enough of The Saker you should realise that the time for dialogue is over and it is time for decisions. I suspect that is what the recent visit by Lavrov to India was about. This is the meeting where Lavrov went to Pakistan immediately afterwards. It is very telling that the Indian chatterati’s comments focussed on the fact that Lavrov went to Pakistan immediately after and not on what the content of the discussions might have been.
very astute. 100% correct.
At the very least, it is now clear that the Anglos have no allies, and never had them. What they had where colonial coolies who imagined themselves as part of some “community of civilized, democratic and peace-loving, nations”. These coolies are now left in limbo.
Yes, the Anglo-American mask is falling off. They cannot disguise their arrogance or colonialist character much longer.
For all their delusional propaganda about leading the supposed “Free World,” the Anglo-Saxon settler nations (America, Australia, Canada, New Zealand, and Britain) view non-Anglo countries as merely slaves to be used and discarded, when they see fit.
The Anglos thus possess a pathological sense of superiority that grows ever more psychologically deranged, as they are enraged that they have not only failed to subjugate nations like Russia, China, and Iran but also fear that their grip on the world is unravelling.
The question is this: Will the Anglo-Americans gracefully accept their decline with the rise of a multipolar world, or will they lash out in a fit of rage that will consume themselves (and much of the world) in a nuclear inferno?
“The question is this: Will the Anglo-Americans gracefully accept their decline with the rise of a multipolar world, or will they lash out in a fit of rage that will consume themselves (and much of the world) in a nuclear inferno?”
They do have a track record of using nuclear weapons for the most flimsy excuses.
@jiri
“They do have a track record of using nuclear weapons for the most flimsy excuses.”
But only on those who can not retaliate.
Andrei My Orthodox Brother,
I am at the point where I hope you are right about the USA collapsing and breaking up into a smaller successor states. I think this would be a blessing in disguise for everyone in the entire world. I just don’t want a hard crash. I’d rather have a mitigated crash landing.
I think Allen West was right when he called for the creation of a Union of Law (meaning the Constitution) States. Middle America simply does not need Washington DC, New York, Chicago, Los Angeles, San Francisco or Seattle. Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Florida could be a nation all on their own but if they actually did break away from Washington DC they would be quickly joined by Oklahoma, Arkansas, Tennessee, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, West Virginia, Kentucky, Ohio, Indiana, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, Wyoming, Montana, Idaho and quite possibly even Pennsylvania, Michigan, Iowa, Wisconsin, Arizona and Utah.
If all the average Americans stood up tomorrow and told Washington DC to stick it they could reclaim most of the country in a heartbeat. If that does happen I think you will see the Woke/Multicultural/Diverse Metropolitan areas becoming modern day City States.
Ideally two Americas would emerge in their own Nation states. One would be the dystopian, Big Tech wet dream of an authoritarian/totalitarian Woke Capitalist society while the other would embody the ideals of Freedom and Liberty, the ideals of the Old American Republic only this time without the Empire.
If it ever comes to be I would like to see an Old Republic that completely rejects neoliberalism and Globalist Free Trade, reigns in the banking cartels and multinational corporations and embraces a more corporatist society that embraces and empowers the working class, breaks up big agricultural firms and creates regional coops of small family farms.
That would be the best of all scenarios, the peaceful breakup of the USA. The nightmare would be the worst of the USSR collapse scenario combined with the breakup of Yugoslavia
Wish you well in your dreams. The prior attempt at US secession was rather bloody, and that was in a era of muskets and horses. The USSR collapsed rather peacefully by comparison. Unless you mean the war against the Czar? In which case you should learn the true identity and motives of the Bolsheviks, and from whom they received their massive financial support.
“I am at the point where I hope you are right about the USA collapsing and breaking up into a smaller successor states. I think this would be a blessing in disguise for everyone in the entire world. I just don’t want a hard crash. I’d rather have a mitigated crash landing.”
It would not only be a hard crash but a spectacularly bloody one besides, but the end result would be . . . the United States of America. All talk about states joining together into multistate successor blocs ignores two facts: (1) Several states are polarized between extremes such that there is in fact no such thing as an “Oregon” or even a “California” that could form part of a Wokeistan bloc. These states are split — angrily — between a “liberal” coastline and a “conservative” countryside. There are similar splits in places like Colorado and New York. (2) When the dust clears, there will be no Wokeistan — at all. Wokeistan has no arms to speak of. Virtually all of the police forces and most of the national guards would be only too happy to suppress any Wokeistan aspirations. The armed forces *could* intervene — posse comitatus is dead, after all — but I don’t see them intervening to challenge what would be a nationwide battle to “preserve the union” which, come January 2023, will once again be dominated by the “right” side of the American double vulture and is likely to remain dominated by that side for quite some time. (I predict that the Democrats will be entirely shut out of all three branches of government for at least a generation, if not forever.) And if the armed forces did intervene? Well, the Navy wouldn’t be of much use and the Air Force has been safely on the “right” for decades. As for the Army, while attitudes there may be decidedly mixed, when the rubber hits the road soldiers almost always obey orders, and by 2025 these orders will be issued by Trump or De Santis or someone from that side.
Another point: There seems trouble brewing in south Serbian province Kosovo:
https://www.rt.com/news/535873-serbian-president-kosovo-tensions/
The situation is similar to DNR/LNR, Serbian army went through serious modernization last coupe of years (Pantsir S1, MI-35..) and will not let its population in the north part of province get slaughtered by Albanian terrorists who are currently in power in Kosovo, they need escalation to draw attention of the collective west because they see empire is dying (similar to Zelensky).
Russian ambassador in Serbia on behalf of Shoygu visited Serbian troops on administrative line with Kosovo together with Serbian Minister of Defense and Chief of the Serbian General Staff, clearly communicating to the west that this time they will not attack Orthodox nation without consequences.
Thank for this update Milose,
I do not see a major war happening here yet…Basically, the Albanians have miscalculated and overplayed their hand. They unilaterally introduced the requirement of new licence plates and sent in their special forces to the border crossing to enforce this new law, without any backing from their sponsors. Albin Kurti is now out on a limb…
Charles Michel, the EU Commissioner has told them to pull back their special forces, which has caused fury.
“[It is] time for both Serbia and Kosovo [leaders] to step back and to de-escalate including withdrawal of special police units and barricades and to continue negotiations”
The climb down will result in a massive humiliation of Albanian leadership in Kosovo… I saw videos of these special forces walking armed to the teeth in the street surrounded by Serbian civilians who were poking fun at them. Clearly the Serbs are fed up and are calling this bluff..
I think Albin Kurti will have no choice but to climb down..Of course this being the Balkans any thing could happen.
True enough, but I can’t imagine the USA would be exactly thrilled by the thought of having the admittedly otherwise useless jurisdiction surrounding Camp Bondsteel threatened.
Neither USA, nor EU are thrilled that on 21 August of this year, Serbia, Macedonia, and Albania created a “Balkan Free Zone”.
https://www.euronews.com/2021/08/31/as-eu-membership-stalls-balkan-countries-make-controversial-move-to-create-their-own-mini-
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Open_Balkan
This could be an opening for the BRI, as China’s trade with Serbia has been increasing, and spilling over to neighbouring countries. The region probably sees this Balkan Free Zone as a way to stimulate economic growth which they all desperately need.
Kosovo was excluded from this zone. I think this could be a reason why this conflict is happening now…
@Serbian girl
“They unilaterally introduced the requirement of new licence plates and sent in their special forces to the border crossing to enforce this new law, without any backing from their sponsors. Albin Kurti is now out on a limb…”
I do not see war either. Just do not believe that Kurti has luxury to make any decission at all. He is UKUS asset. Assets follow orders to the letter … or else. Remember what happened to Kurti’s predecessors.
UKUS is just probing Serbian determination. They plan to increase pressure on Western Balkan (namely Serbs) to “counter Russian malign influence”. Current crisis is measuring tool to aproximate magnitude of involvment. If Russia and China firmly stand behind Serbia (to protect their significant investments), UKUS will abandon Kurti without skiping a hearthbeat.
This may be the reason for his present awkward position. Or it is calm before the storm. We shall see soon. While pressure on Serbs seems inevitable, consequences are hard to predict.
Fate of Serbia is closely tied to amount of support from Russia and China.
Yes, you are probably right. Funny how these flare-ups always arise right before EU sponsored talks which then end up getting delayed.
Its a good thing. Serbia has no benefit from these talks, and Albanians have no interest, so win-win all around..
A big thank to the Saker for providing excellent analysis that is not available anywhere else. Since the emphasis by the empire has shifted to submarines the Russians and Chinese will need to shift focus to increasing their submarine fleets. A big advantage that they both have is not having a 100% debt to GDP ratio like the US has.
Increasing the submarine fleets accomplishes nothing unless the Empire decides to go on the attack. That would be an insane move for them to take IMO.
Something about AUKUS and SSNs.
I think it is not that easy as they imagined.
What makes a SSN to be a dangerous thing? Or to put it otherwise: what is the most powerful weapon of a SSN? And of a SSBN, of course.
First of all, it is deep-blue and vast sea/ocean (difficult to detect, find and sink a sub). Then, it is the nuclear propulsion, not as SSs, ie diesel-electric subs, even with effective snorkel, which must dive right under the surface in cruising mode, or on the surface. With nuclear propulsion – ‘dive and forget’ – at depths of 250-300 m. And final then, it is the weaponry, preferably nuclear one. This order of ‘dangers’ shows how subs are actually vulnerable.
We hear that the candidates to sell/lease to the AU Navy are Los Angeles (project 1972, active 28, test depth 300 m), Seawolf (1989, active 3, 500 m) or Virginia (2000, active 19, planned 66, 250 m) classes (more data on Wiki). These are all good (never mind some are old), fast-attack submarines. Their purpose is to shadow adversary’s SSBNs (sub with ballistic missiles) and attack them when necessary.
Everything changes for them in coastal waters, shallow sea.
If they are intended to control (and close) oil transport (to chase tankers instead of SSBNs) and shipping routes through straits of South East Asia archipelago, I have not good news for them.
In water, you can hear almost everything, and at long distances, even the snoring of a crewman.
It is easy to deploy arrays (with simple artificial intelligence) of acoustic sensors across the bottom of transport corridors (and arround) and record patrol plans of these subs, sound signatures of each of 8 planned subs for the AU Navy, crew habits etc. It is easy to hit any of them from the coast (by a heavy machine gun, it is so close – I’m joking a little).
On the other hand, I am pretty sure it is a kind of theater. The Afghanistan’s swift transition and US withdrawal made the knees of a bad giant trembled seriously (as with its highest envoy – Mr. Biden).
At once, we witnessed eg AUKUS agreement. Not secretly, as it should be (if they were serious), but in public, as a message to ‘urbi et orbi’, that the bad giant is still standing uprightly.
At the cost of French reaction. Again in public. All right, I understand that Mr. Macron is scion (or to put it: sCION) or outgrowth of financial-banking complex, and maybe they are making a theater, but why then in public, through devastating message of their weakness and despair.
Also, I would understand that as a dialog with no words between the A-Z (Anglo-Z) and the SCO (read it as Russia-China). Machine translation (a joke) of this no-word dialog is something like: I will allow you to put a threat on me and I will pretend that I am a upset, just in order to keep your cheek on you face and to calm you down. Otherwise, you could do something more stupid to convince the rest of the world that they should count on you, yet.
It is similar to actions between two generals in the battlefield – they understand and ‘talk’ to each other through moves of their troops.
Another primary question is delivery completion of all (8) submarines. Theater again?
Mr. Saker,
I am French : You say that after de Gaulle, Mitterrand was the last one capable of telling Uncle Shmuel to “take a hike”, and further on that, after the eviction of France from the submarines contract, de Gaulle or Mitterrand would have [left NATO] immediately. You are probably right, and that makes Mitterrand a patriot. You are perhaps right as regard the foreign policy. But, as regard the internal policy, the harm Mitterrand caused to France has been immense (strong rise of immigration, replacement of the persons in key functions by socialist (progressive, liberal) persons, creation of special socialist-oriented schools for policemen, judges, teachers. And so on and so forth). And all those left-oriented reforms are irreversible, nobody has dared to reverse them. The progressive-liberal-leftist wave that Americans are going to know with Biden, the French have already known with Mitterrand.
Oh, I am not at all a fan of Mitterrand. He was a slime bag who always new from where the wind blows. But he took no shit from the Anglos. But I TOTALLY agree with you, internally the Pierre Mauroy government was composed of hardcore ideologues, so much so that eventually, he was replaced.
BTW – the French Socialist Party belong to the Grand Orient masonic loge anyway, so no hope for honesty there.
Not that by now the rest of them (including Marine) are all sold out anyway.
I see no hope from the French political parties at this point.
But I do have hopes that this can change in the future
Ca ira!
Thank you for your answer. It is very true : Marine is sold out and there is no hope.
I used to really like Soral and E&R, but since they jumped on the COVID-thingie I stopped paying attention to them.
Can somebody please resurrect Georges Marchais?!?!?! (Just kidding, of course).
From a number of years now, I have ceased to consult the mainstream TVs, radios or newspapers. I only consult your site and E&R. I must say I do not understand your phrase “since they jumped on the COVID-thingie”. I suppose you mean “since they declared they were FOR the mask, the vaccination, etc.”. In that case, I do not understand. To me, E&R has always appeared as being AGAINST. Perhaps… one day… M. Soral said he would accept to be vaccinated. I do not know, I am imagining your reasons. But his site is against.
Funny you speak of Georges Marchais, I wrote one day — was it to some friend of mine, I’ve forgotten — that Georges Marchais was the last of the French Communist party leaders who came from the lower classes, in other words, who was not ready to betray his country and its traditions. (N.B.: the higher class people — who are in most cases respectable people — are more ready to betray their country and traditions, as they are protected by their money. The lower class people have no defenses except family, hometown and homeland.)
What I was referring to is this kind of stuff: https://vimeo.com/549703880
That being said, I just checked the E&R site and the COVID topic is toned down, so I will resume reading it regularly as there are still a lot of good stuff posted there :-)
Thanks for making me check!
Kind regards
Andrei
“AngloZionist Empire” … is there no “RussoZionist” force extant?
No, not really. There are definitely Zionists in the Russian media and in Kremlin circles.
But they mostly behave due to the public sentiment (Russians have a long memory).
So no, not really.
If you are referring to the “Putin and Bibi work hand in hand” canard, then this is just a western PSYOP to try to hurt Putin combined with a few bloggers who want to be noticed and who are clickbaiting.
Interesting. Thank you for your reply.
Somewhat off topic, but what is your opinion of Alexandr Dugin?
Well, there is a good reason (many actually) while I NEVER mentioned him on the blog :-)
He is a fake, and a toxic one at that. The only “good” thing about him is that he is not “Putin’s advisor” (in spite of the many western claims to the opposite).
That being said, he is intelligent, very educated and a pretty good speaker. That only makes him even MORE toxic than if he was dumb, illiterate and a bad speaker.
I appreciate your thinking, and have reason to dislike Dugan myself. Unfortunately, there are decent folks who have a following that accept his approach. The topic of Eurasianism is probably central in this.
Thanks to Friend Saker for thoughtful essay.
I would buttress his idea of US “break-up”. US State New Hampshire is exploring this pathway. So is much of the West Coast. Search-term “New Hampshire secession”
Glen Diesen’s paper (see last Saker Cafe for link) would also seem to buttress.
Saker I believe the next immediate move will be a withdrawal from Syria and then Iraq. However there is this little morsel I found on the Taiwan issue.
https://www.greanvillepost.com/2021/09/25/chinas-reunification-with-taiwan-might-perhaps-happen-sooner-than-expected/
Very interesting, thank you!
I hope that this is true, but I am afraid that the Anglosphere will never allow that and will do anything and everything to prevent it.
Taken altogether, and if I may levity introduce a smile (and also perhaps sadness) enjoy https://youtu.be/6pAvKBwCTTU (Johnny Cash’s “Weighed in the Balance” (“Belshazzar” by Johnny Cash)) The idea of a Kingdom Divided is central to the geopolitics we see to-day. And it’s a very good song.
The biggest game changer of all. Hpersonic weapons will send the aircraft carrier the way of the dreadnought.
https://i.janes.com/hypersonic-weapons?utm_campaign=Defence_Industry_Brand_Awareness_2021&utm_source=google&utm_medium=cpc&utm_content=hypersonic-webinar-reg&gclid=Cj0KCQjw18WKBhCUARIsAFiW7JwqK6iaR9B6fhePTWdgdo2OSvMMyh0RUv2h3UHc2cSzDiJYks9D0N8aAvmGEALw_wcB
China is developing hypersonic tech that is a real game changer.
https://www.techtimes.com/articles/265870/20210926/chinas-proposed-hypersonic-weapon-wipe-out-power-supply-communication-lines.htm
Interesting and intriguing (provocative) question.
Maybe Solzhenitsyn would be helpful, (quite decent) English translation on
https://archive.org/details/TwoHundredYearsTogetherByAlexanderSolzhenitsyn
In Russian on
http://www.jewniverse.ru/RED/Solzhenitsin/
I am not so competent for the issue.
I think that more relevant question will be about Russian elites (elites comprising the Russians themselves), their factions, layers etc.
It seems to me that the Russians do not need any Zionists to ”successfully” act against each other. Zionist are only a cherry on the cake. Let us remember 1917. The Serbs have similar tendency to discord.
There are people much more familiar with the matter.
200 years together is, in my opinion, THE book on Russian-Jewish relations.
No wonder there STILL is not official translation into English :-)
But, if you can grab an unofficial one, read it, it is work every page.
Also
200 years together is also a prequel to the Gulag Archipelago.
Together they are pure dynamite :-)
The US/Oz submarines are way in the future, the empire will be long gone Their debt is gigantic, both countries leadership corrupt & incompetent.
We all await the second exodus from the jewish state rather than the second coming? Imagine 900k violent settlers returning to the RF, the oligarchs surprise for VVP
At last the end of WWII & the UN’s biggest mistake? A total victory by self destruction? The trigger Soleimani’s traitorous assassination? After decades of trying by ways of peace it’s done? We’ll see
The US/Oz submarines are way in the future, the empire will be long gone
That is my hope too.
Let’s see how the “inclusive” Woke US builds subs (while forcing every employee to get vaxxed!)
But still,
Even leasing Los Angeles class SSNs will be a major development.
So hope for the best, prepare for the worst, and settle for anything in the middle :-)
@Sadness: “Imagine 900k violent settlers returning to the RF”.
The “Let My People Go” immigrants to The Promised Land cannot return to the RF because they did not leave the Russian Federation. The country they left was the Soviet Union, which no longer exists.
Dear Saker, you have my sympathy and attention for years, thanks for all the info you share. However, your position on Europe as a whole is a bit incoherent (EU as US lackey of no importance vs. Anglos have no allies) and seems rather to be reverberating the hurt Russian soul’s lamentation how stupid, short sighted and fool the European answer is for Russia’s generous partnership offers (which is absolutely valid assessment btw.) than the precise analysis we like in all your writings.
As the saying goes – when we see emotional heat, we don’t read analysis, we read propaganda.
I would not bury EU so fast and hope neither your Russian friends at home do. First, the main obstacle in the way of a unified EU response is the lack of a unified EU on any matters – including Russia. There are certainly friends if not of Russia but certainly of the good cooperation with Russia within the community. Greeks, Italians, Hungarians, the soon coming Serbs, maybe the Slovaks and the Czech. I think that many Germans are also on side of cooperation rather than the confrontation. It is clear that mainly US interests push the continent on a collision course with Russia against the popular will through their handled agents on almost all positions of power all across the continent. It is common in the west and US did a fair job to conquer the east as well. Yet, the facts are hard things, and despite of the reluctance of the political powers to answer the geopolitcal changes in motion, the time of reckoning is rapidly approaching for the EU mandarin classes too.
The Americans have already lost their attraction and soft power long, and that is the first serious slip on the slope (eg. nobody had any faith in the future of socialism in the ostblock). Now unfolds the next, the visible deconstrucion of power structures, as things start coming apart at the seams (new parties, new economic alternatives, occupation forces start leaving).
President Putin revealed the secret openly for his western counterparts, the patented way to the defeat is trusting in sheer power that “wir shaffen es”. You don’t.
Still nobody is listening to the eastern experiences on the shiny hills, but the easterner main street sees the similarities and know where this way goes.
My message is that EU is of vital importance for Russia too, not only vice versa. If not in the short term, in the long term for sure (can Russia tame and pacify a much more powerful China long?). If recent EU leaders are incapable of agreement and even discussion, then no discussion will be held. But when the changes will become visible for the stupids in chief, Russia should find the way to make a deal. Recent EU position is ridiculously unjust and nonsense, yet Russia is better to remember that she is an empire – which are by nature evil -, and her past is no foundation of trust. Even the highly esteemed minister Lavrov say such imperial nonsenses which are hair-raising (about the ungratefulness of Europeans for the Russian helps in past; did he think of such things? –
https://weaponsandwarfare.com/2019/08/29/the-lost-war-of-hungarian-independence-1849-part-ii/
). I do not see anything Europeans should be grateful for – with the sole exception of contribution to the European art.
On the other hand, Russia too suffered a lot from invasions and warring with neighbouring countries. It will be difficult to carve out a deal and step over the historical pains, but the other way is non-viable. If Germans and French could make it, we the peoples of Eastern Europe must be capable to make it too. Again cooperation or fail, tertium non datur. For EU, this is a mid term necessity, for Russia only long term, but neither Russia can afford to miss the reconciliation.
the hurt Russian soul’s lamentation how
Since this utter nonsense is the basis of the rest of your comment, I won’t even bother commenting on the rest.
(sigh, rolleyes)
My immediate worry is how cold (and protracted) this winter is going to be.
I have a funny feeling that, absent some major nuclear confrontation, most casualties in western Europe, which I happen to live in, will be be caused by freezing temperatures.
For all its immense progress since the 80s and 90s, China still has two major technological weak points: aircraft engines and SSNs. It just so happens that these are also two real US strong points. By deploying 8 more SSNs near China, the US is very intelligently maximizing the use of its best assets and hurting China were it will hurt the most.
What about concrete submarines? I remember reading a Popular Mechanics article many years ago; is this viable? In theory concrete has similar strength to steel, yet it is invisible to sonar because it is sand…
As for jet engines, I remember also reading a long time ago about China wanting to develop pulse-jet instead of turbofan engines; is this viable?
Pulsejet bsolutely not “viable”. by-pass turbofan axial flow jet engine is absolutely and overwhelmingly best aircraft engine, and being incrementally improved. See MoA “gordog” on this matter. He is expert jet-engine engineer. Pulsejets have terrible qualities. Nice toys though. Easy to make in garage shop.There are rather good piston aircraft engines suitable for low altitude and low speed – cesna 150, piper cub.
Concrete subs? Pop Mech is not a quality source. Some people see PM as see eye eh servant. Concrete shatters on shockwave. Steel is far superior, though a bronze might be interesting. Bronze fishing boats have been built. ( Bronze is not ferromagnetic… )
“Stalingrad” is over. Zone B prevails, though as (also @ MoA) “karlov1” wrote recently, battles remain. See Saker Cafe history. I quoted Mr K. Gordog and karlov1 are solid sources and educated experts. Recall that after Stalingrad the war lasted quite awhile – we are in denouement, as were the previous nazi manifestation apre Stalingrad..
Excellent and timely article, Saker. Thanks. As to the BRICS group, yes, it has evaporated. Brazil had a parliamentary coup d’etat in April 2016, after about 5 years of careful planning by foreign forces. It was sold out to the lowest bidder after that. The Brazilian situation is very sad.
The policy in Australia has always been the policy of who owns the world at that point.
China is Australias biggest trading partner on one hand…and on the other it attacks constantly in the cyber world and makes veiled threats in official broadcasts toward. China have been trying to cleave Australia away from America for years.
What the Chinese don’t understand is Australia is the 51st State of America it just has not been officially recognized for strategic reasons.
Its more likely the UK is trying to pry Australia away from both the US (which it lost effectively since WW2) and latterly China and re-assert control. Any attempt to do so will fail until the UK removes its current ruling set and even then it is too late.
Australians since 1970 see themselves more like Americans, not British. And that something the UK hasn’t grasped and there is no way of changing it now.
The UK also needs to get its own house in order and let Scotland go its own way as it will only continue to be a problem.
Apologies for the following. I have been trying to follow the various changes in geopolitics and finances, especially in the last month or two. I have read / heard the following news (in general):
1) China is cracking down hard on their tech / financial / educational (ie: tutoring) industries. They are tightening up control in seeming contradiction to their booming economy, creating (to a layman like myself) real dangers to their economy.
2) There is rumor (yes, i know, i know) of President Putin being unavailable recently after the election and the runor has it that he missed important meetings with Xi Jinping as well as the Dushanbe Summit. THis coming from Israel Shamir in an article in Unz.
3) The AUKUS deal was just announced recently, and it bodes ill for China and maybe Russia. As someone said, the Anglo saxons are apparently circling their wagons.
4) France has thrown a hissy fit but decided to resume its bent-over posture for The Empire.
5) Iran has just joined the SCO, making the SCO stronger. Iran is one of the countries that Occupied Palestine and the Wannabe Tribe wants erased.
6) An article in Vzglyad outlining a report by Russian intelligence service that comes to the conclusion (if i read it correctly) that war with the Empire is imminent and not too far away, although how far is impossible to say.
7) The last two or three weeks where the Wannabe Tribe in Occupied Palestine has utterly failed to bomb Syria evidently becasue of upgrades to the Syrian air defence system, and the downing of 2 Israeli drones, one being shot down and the other hijacked by Syria.
8) and, of course, Afghanistan.
Based on all of these and other news from around the globe, it seems to me that there is a quickening pace of Empire failures around the world with the AZ Empire becoming increasingly psychotic, paranoid and very frazzled. They are, in other words, scared sh*tless. I think that they feel the need to do something really big NOW.
So, in my extremely amateurish interpretation of all of this news, and trying to connect the dots, it seems that what Russia and China are doing is the equivalent of “clearing the decks” before a major military confrontation. What China is doing is unprecedented – she seems to be endangering her own economic future after decades of hard and painful work and sacrifice. Why? In Russia, Putin is suddenly missing from very important meetings (from my perspective). This comes after Mr Yevgeny Zinichev died under somewhat suspicious (?) circumstances (didn’t he have really good bodyguards to protect him and prevent him from doing something as the official story explains?). I heard that he was touted as a replacement for President Putin when the latter retires.
So i am at the point of considering one of two scenarios:
A) China and Russia have intel that the AZ Empire is about to go kinetic and are thus preparing for it (“clearing the decks”) or
B) China and Russia intend to do something preemptive about the current unsustainable situation (President Putin’s “throw the first punch if you know that a fight is unavoidable”).
I would be honored to have this pseudo-“analysis” based on my very flawed conjecture explained as to why this is like saying 2+2=cow.
Thanks in advance.
So, in my extremely amateurish interpretation of all of this news, and trying to connect the dots, it seems that what Russia and China are doing is the equivalent of “clearing the decks” before a major military confrontation.
I am confident that neither Russia nor China want a war. I will also add that they will do everything possible to avoid it. The ways these two countries chose to avoid this war are different:
1) Russia has become much more powerful than the Empire militarily
2) China has become much more powerful than the Empire economically.
Neither country wants to do something preemptively, but rather they are offering an alternative, and a viable one.
As for the Empire, both Russia and China understand that it is SELF-destructing, so time is on their side and they need not “do” anything different, Just wait.
Now if Russia or China get irrefutable intel that an attack is about to occur, they will strike first, especially the Russians. But the US/NATO know that they are a paper tiger against Russia, and they are desperately trying to prevent the Chinese from becoming military power on par with Russia and/or the US. So their plan is to united the Anglosphere against China in the hope of preventing the Chinese from becoming a peer competitor.
As for a successor for Putin, I don’t see anybody even remotely capable of succeeding him. That is BY FAR the biggest weakness of Russia: it is still fundamentally a “one man show” and Putin is that man. The Russian (more or less real) opposition is mostly pathetic, angry and willing to repeat any nonsense as long as it bashes Putin. We can only hope and pray that Putin has something hidden “put his sleeve”, maybe something like what Nazarbaev did in Kazakhstan, but in a “Russian way” (whatever that can mean). I honestly don’t know and cannot make any predictions about that.
I hope that this is useful.
Kind regards
Andrei
Thank you very much for clearing things up for me. I tend to get lost in the blizzard / tsunami (trying to find the right metaphor) that is “The News” in all its various forms. I do need a regular anchor and position fix to get my head straight…
Thanks again!
I recommend using non-Anglo controlled news sources such as PressTV, the Global Times, RT, Sputnik, Al Manar, CGTN (all are available in English)
On Russia, you can find a list of sources under “News Sources” at the top right of the main page.
Kind regards
Thank you again very much, Saker. I do not read or view the mainstream western media and haven’t for at least 3 or 4 decades now (especially American ones) and instead focus on any “alternative” news websites i can find, perusing them to glean as much information as i can, then i try to correlate any facts that are common and that fit the context of what i see / hear as happening currently, globally. In this way, i try to validate (or not) any information i come across for a better level of trust.
My usual sources are English-language mostly but i use Yandex browser for translations to non-English websites including Russian language sites. I have been a regular visitor to RT, Sputnik, CGTN and an often visitor to Global TImes and Press TV. From time to time, I will visit Zero Hedge to scan news items but i find that even reading the headlines is like having “red-hot sharpened bamboo” shoved under my finger nails, but it can sometimes yield some interesting info, although i can never trust that information until i have seen it in other more trusted non-Western outlets. It’s all about separating the wheat from the chaff.
Finally, i am a regular reader of The Saker Blog. I enjoy your posts very much and writers like Pepe Escobar. Amazing, intelligent and well researched writing and thoughts! It really shows the work and attention to detail that goes into these articles.
Thank you.
Yandex browser for translations to non-English websites including Russian language sites.
VERY good idea, I have other friends who do that too.
I should have mentioned that.
I see that you are very well informed indeed.
And thanks for your kind words :-)
Cheers!
@Saker
China has applied to join the TPP trade pact. It seems that they’re trying to integrate with the global markets as much as they can so that a war would cost a lot not only for the region but the entire world. Apparently, their strategy is to provide other countries an incentive to improve trade ties with China and make them stand against a war with China
I agree, China is a very old civilization, they have always won through economic relationship rather than war in the past, which they think of as the last option. US is like a new kid on the block and generally acts like a bull in China shop (pun intended). It’s almost funny to see USSA++ attempt to ‘corner’ China as if they are Iraq or Libya, to be honest I don’t think they have viable ideas on how to defeat such an adversary. So in my view, the Chinese reaction to AUKUS is two fold, in a way at asymmetrical level offer trade through participation in TPP vs war to neighbors and granting SCO membership to Iran to strengthen defence capabilities in ME. China will be ready, but will do everything possible not to get into a armed conflict with US, a key market for their economy.
In, I believe, a presentation that seems to buttress the idea that some re-alignment of several important, nay, vital, agencies in Zone B and especially Russia as preparation for a more “kinetic” relationship ‘tween the Zones, Mercouris offers “Russia Preparing for the Storm: Putin Holds Series of Top Level Meetings in Russia”
Mercouris sums up> “Something is up.”
Some may take this to the next logical (?) level>
My intuition is that it has been resolved in Zone B that “Zone A” and “Zone B” are already “at war”, and that, therefore, the triggering event for a Zone B counter-action (at obviously at Time when the constellation of fores are highly favorable) direct actions will occur. Probably. When, some say, a Fight becomes inevitable, Strike First. One may muse about the “target-set”
Mercouris has restrained himself, saying only “something’s up.” It’s a careful presentation, and, I think, well worth the time to listen to. The “Reich” has been ” measured in the balance, and found wanting “, if one recalls Daniel…
Recall VVP “We know everything.” And, like the 3rd Reich, this one must also be riddled with men and women who tell…
I will take up only one theme of your post, namely, why is China endangering its economic growth by reining-in some companies? First of all, you need to grasp that the wealth of a few corporations is not equal to the growth and economic welfare of its national economy. If you read economic history you will find that all successful economies have, from time to time, checked and curbed some of their corporations. US did it via its anti-trust legislation to break up cartels which were siphoning off resources to the detriment of the economy as a whole and depriving Americans of economic opportunities. Then again, there used to be tight regulatory laws applicable to big banks, preventing them from aggressive forays in the stock market. Bill Clinton did away with those regulations and 2008 happened! Banks had to be baled-out with billions of taxpayer dollars.
High Priests of the “Free Market” always call for all regulatory restrictions to be removed and, when the inevitable disaster often happens, they are the first ones to cry out for Government help and subsidies to save the “Free Market”.
All that China has done is to reign-in some sectors that were possibly threatening the success of its economic project as a whole. This regulatory change may or may not be the correct call, but one thing is for sure: if ever there is a country that knows how to manage and grow its economy it is China.
Thank you for the quick lesson in this area. I’m aware of past (long ago) regulatory actions re: corporations in the US but i have been distracted by the other geopolitical news that has been rampant and thick in the last few weeks especially. As i’m oft want to do, i tend to imagine connections where there are none but might possibly be. I have difficulty ascribing cause to effect in such complicated international situations. Good to get a better footing on where this news is deriving from.
Thanks again!
You are most welcome. I think it is important to understand the various shades of china-bashing economic propaganda. Some of the propaganda (“Chinese economy is going to sink”) comes from Western intelligence assets, and its purpose is to demoralize the enemy. Some of the other, with the theme (“Chinese economy is distorted because it does not operate under a free market”), comes from neoliberal ideologues (think magazines like The Economist, most of the mainstream Western media, etc.), and then there is the propaganda with the flavor “China must open up its markets fully and privatize”, which, understandably, comes from Big Money itching to get its fingers in the Chinese pie. The hard fact is that China has grown its economy at a speed (and with a quality) never before seen in human history. Moving a billion human beings from poverty and hunger into economic security is a laudable achievement. Facts are facts, and theories are theories!
Over my lifetime i have slowly and painfully learned the perfidy of western press and government announcements and promises, and how the declared enemy du jour is constantly kept in the crosshairs of the West’s incessant propaganda. Long ago, i learned to start decoding the NewSpeak of the propaganda masters, and i started to learn to simply invert (in a lot of cases) the meaning or the claims of these propaganda onslaughts and just reverse the subject with the object to come to a truer understanding of who is doing what, to whom.
China currently is just another of the targets. Yes, demonizing the enemy. It seems anyone “not with U.S.” is another Hitler. Unfortunately, most Americans, Anglo-speaking peoples or Europeans, are so locked into their own “culture” (and i use that term loosely) that they cannot imagine or fathom that different peoples from different parts of the world, having vastly different (and in many cases, much older) cultures, can actually have thoughts that do not pass anywhere near nor resemble what i call “Anglicized Thought”, ie: the West’s view of the world, which has become a delusional world of make believe with a generous helping of anger and racism toward “The Other” thrown in. I think that recent events, like being kicked out of Afghanistan, China’s extraordinary ascension in industry and finance, and Russia’s supremacy in military means, have been one shock treatment too many for them. Thus, the wailing and gnashing teeth and hte lashing out….
I agree with you. Thank you for your response
I would not worry too much about the SSN submarine deal as the current Aust. LNP Govt of Scott Morrison will be thrown out of office and never recover as a result of it collusion and wasting billions $ on this pandemic nonsense and vaccines people don’t want. He may even be removed from office before next years May 2021 election as backbenchers are getting nervous.
A similar fate will behalf that current clown PM of UK and the Conservative Party who are living under the illusion people will forget about current lockdowns etc by the next election. And with a bit of luck also the UK royals will be removed from office too for their collusion in the same agenda.
The Aust. ALP opposition even if they get elected will not go along with this sub deal.
Australia needs to completely cut most of its ties with UK as its Govt and elites are the enemy, just as they are to the US and Canada (because they have been suppressing them for the past century). Why the UK is involved in such a sub deal for the Asia region when UK has no business there at all now needs explaining, unless some UK company expects to pick up the contract for them (stolen from France after BREXIT) which probably whats more behind this – a monetary & trade issue to get a lot of $90bn.
The US currently has a clown called Biden and his team are nothing but fools. Is it any wonder that the EU has been dumped ? And with swine like Macron and Merkel can you blame them anyway ? Could the reason be the US Biden Democrat RINO coalition wants to exit the EU so it can be overrun by immigrants the globalists want to destroy Europe ? Then US interests come in a buy up most the assets at 10 cents of the dollar (splitting the spoils with the EU elites) ?
China is though getting too powerful and I think this is just a chess game check move to keep it in line.
If anyone needs SSN subs I think it is Japan and Taiwan who will deal will China if things get out of hand.
Australia buying such subs – which I suspect was not their idea but forced on them – is unnecessary.
Buy if they were bought and employed you can bet they will have US and UK controlled non-conventional missiles in them. Anyway it wont happen as Morrison and his lot will be gone soon.
This Australian nuclear sub business could backfire. In IR legalese the technology transfer is considered proliferation. I take it as evident that the Americans basically want to sell their ageing but still still capable submarines to Australia and use them for patrolling the Indian Ocean from WA or the NT. The idea proceeds from the naval strategy of blockading the enemies economic system specifically the interdiction of energy supplies to an energy hungry China. Much of this energy will surely be coming from Iran. Preventing China from obtaining energy from Iran is a class A act of war. And preventing Iran from trading with China calls for a response as well.
What kind of response? I don’t know but if it were up to me I’d be making arrangements for Iran, now a fully fledged member of the SCO, to receive state of the art attack submarines and aircraft capable of patrolling the Indian Ocean, because it’s an Iranian ocean to; its sea lanes are vital to its national security, just as much as China. Does that sound like proliferation to you? It’s not nuclear proliferation, but as Andre Martyanov has convincingly argued, Russian missile technology has created a revolution in military affairs. Inexpensive missiles can shoot down anything that flies and sink anything that floats. What then becomes of America’s favoured ‘air/sea’ tactics? If Iranian capacities are augmented and improved then America’s position in the Indian Ocean will be placed decisively in check and nothing short of a fully fledged Indian alliance would be able to alter that. The Indian political class that has condensed around the BJP is green with envy as regards China, and according to S.K. Bhadrakumar dream their fond dreams of an American alliance (while continuing to buy Russian hardware). But they’re not going to fight America’s wars (ditto for Japan, South Korea or Vietnam). In fact, Australia is America’s only ally that seems willing to make the economic sacrifices entailed by a full alliance with America’s aggressive ‘pivot’.
Things are not looking good for American hegemony. They’ve made a serious mess of Afghan withdrawal, alienated their European allies and now circle the wagons with the the Five Eyes, while the domestic situation continues to deteriorate. Unimpressive. As almost always, America faces a socioeconomic problem with a military response which simply cannot achieve the strategic aim of ‘containment’. They cannot stop Chinese industrial and mercantile growth without starting a war that they are more or less sure to lose.
My interpretation of Australia wanting these submarines, is this, do it while it still can obtain can.
Australia knows a massive collapse is heading the Wests way, and as the Saker said, the potential break up of the country .
Who knows what shape the U.S will be in once this occurs.
Remember, U.S citizens have never in modern times had to deal with a standard of living that will nose dive dramatically. There will be hell to pay, from a political point of view, lynching anyone ?
Problem is, no delivery before at least 2035, more likely 2040 given the Aussie militaryt procurement systems past performance. Leased subs with leased crews don’t count because those crews will just sail back home when the going gets messy. In sum it amounts to Aussie taxpayers sponsoring a few yank or British subs and getting to put an Aussie flag on the periscope for the pr value.
Some portion of Australians understand the likely fate of the USA, and it’s impact on delivery of said tin fish, but it is unlikely that official “Australia” understands anything at all, especially with our pentecostal halfwit in chief leading the show.
Don’t know about you BFO, but from where I am sitting on the edge of Bass Strait, Australia could have its own federation problems to sort out before this covid nonsense comes to an end.
The game is changing fast.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/42538/darpa-reveals-successful-hypersonic-cruise-missile-flight-test-has-occurred
I would ask you to try to only post links with a short intro or commentary and not just the link.
As for DARPA or thedrive, I would take anything they say with a few cubic kilometers of salt.
Kind regards
Andrei
A bit off the topic but I feel that the hypersonic missile development in the US has also made some progress.
https://www.rt.com/usa/535989-darpa-hypersonic-missile-test/
However, I wonder how the Americans were able to achieve this just few months later when the chief of a Russian hypersonic weapons development program was detained by the FSB for passing secrets abroad. I wonder this has any relationship to Americans making a breakthrough in their hypersonic weapons program
https://www.rt.com/russia/531832-kuranov-detained-passing-secrets-abroad/
(Remarks to the moderator removed by the moderator.)
An interesting read, few thoughts and questions though
1. The Anglos are circling the wagons: for me the phrase means a defensive move, but I guess one can use it for planning attack as well. AUKUS – SSNs for Australia what does it means – From ground zero to production at least 10 to 15 years, yes that sound like a clear and present danger. If not that then for what? that’s a question I would like to have more thoughts and views on, especially from reading community. Of course one can assume that adversary is idiotic but if not, then what? US and China are still biggest trade partners with each other, so why would US want to destroy China, or more importantly why would China want to crash/deplete US economy, what will it gain? Is the true purpose resource mining ( in near future) in south China and Indian Ocean seas for US and allies – SSNs giving more control to US? The argument of mortal threat is undercut by the author himself under section “The US is like an aircraft breaking apart in mid-air” and planning to conquer/destroy china in 15 years?
2. The BRICS is close to becoming useless: For whom? it is an economic alliance, but author makes it sound more like an mutual defense treaty and then declares it as a betrayal by some. Is it a crime for India to look after her own interests? Its not that Russia and China are in BRICS to dole out charities, its a trade group and I am sure everyone is looking after their best interest. To digress, if one looks at the history of world over a period of last 5000 years rather than last 200 then clearly China and India would lead world’s GDP, so the western dominance is more of an anomaly then long term reality and it should not be surprising if they fall back to their traditional position in world’s GDP. These two economies are likely to dominates economically in the near future, its simply based on population and a premise that Chinese an Indians are are as smart and hard working as any other race in the world.
3. The SCO is changing (thanks to Uncle Shmuel): Too much focus on who has the bigger …. a continuation of zero sum game which in reality doesn’t lead anywhere.
4. The EU is slowly committing economic and political suicide: Actually they maybe trying to avoid their demise for as long as possible, because of policies followed in the past, it maybe/is unavoidable in my view. So in short, desperate strategies when nothing else can work.
5. Rest including the conclusions: The article places too much focus on shiny toys each state has got, a simple understanding who would win a hypothetical war, the result of that no one can predict and more importantly no one would want, ignoring what all can and will be done before first bullet is fired. In the end there is no conclusion
As I understand it, those subs are unlikely to be operational before the 40s, by which time world politics will have changed massively. So they’re hardly a big deal right now. If anything, what they mean is that Australia will NOT have the French submarines that would probably have been ready much sooner, creating a long gap where they will have nothing.
More generally, it’s not like Australia has ever NOT been allied with the US. So this latest thing is a moderate amount of sound and fury, signifying very little except that pissing off the French is one more push for the Europeans to distance themselves, inch by inch, from the Americans.
Interesting news from sputnik news. We learn the last developments of the US military in Central Asia and what milley and Gerasimov talk about. We also learn that the republicans are furious because the us and russian armies are talking to each other. How dumb is that?
Extract from the article on sputnik:
The rapid collapse of the Afghan government in mid-August left the US scrambling to find military facilities nearby from which to carry out reconnaissance or strike missions against terrorists in Afghanistan. Washington has approached several Central Asian nations with the hopes of reaching a basing agreement, but has yet to meet with any luck. We also learn that the republicans are furious because the US and Russian armies are talking to each over.
Republicans from the House and Senate armed services and foreign affairs committees are demanding answers from Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin and Secretary of State Antony Blinken over a report that the Biden administration is negotiating with Moscow on anti-terrorism cooperation and looking to access Russian military installations in Central Asia to keep an eye on the situation in Afghanistan.
In a letter published on his website Monday, ranking Republican Senate Armed Services Committee Senator James Inhofe and his colleagues, Senator Jim Risch and Representatives Michael McCaul and Mike Rogers, said they were “deeply troubled” by the reports of Russia-US talks on counterterrorism cooperation and basing rights.
“Inviting Russia into discussions will not further vital US counterterrorism goals, nor is it the path to the ‘stable and predictable’ relationship with Russia the Biden administration claims it wants,” the lawmakers said, adding that cooperation with Moscow “risks violating the legal prohibition on US-Russian military cooperation” currently in place thanks to the crisis in Ukraine.
“Russia,” Inhofe and his colleagues suggested, “is more concerned with collecting intelligence on the US and our allies than it is sharing information on terrorist threats.” The lawmakers went on to claim that Russia is not really fighting terrorism in Syria, and to repeat the (debunked) allegations that Moscow provided weapons and other support to the Taliban against the United States and NATO.
The lawmakers asked the White House to provide them with an “immediate briefing” on “any negotiations, agreements, arrangements, proposals or other coordination on counterterrorism in South and Central Asia involving the Biden administration as well as [the] Russian government and military,” and its broader “diplomatic and military engagement with Afghanistan’s neighbours regarding US counterterrorism goals.”
The lawmakers’ letter comes in the wake of a report in the Wall Street Journal earlier Monday suggesting that Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Mark Milley raised the subject of the possible use of Russian military bases in Central Asia by the US to respond to terror threats in Afghanistan in his negotiations with Russian Chief of General Staff Valery Gerasimov in Helsinki last Wednesday.
Officials speaking to the newspaper described Gerasimov’s reaction to Milley’s proposal as “noncommittal,” with Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov declining to comment. A spokesperson for Gen. Milley also declined to comment.
After his meeting with Gerasimov last week, Milley offered a series of conciliatory remarks related to Russia, suggesting that Washington should explore the possibility of expanding military-to-military contacts with Moscow, including the invitation of observers to one another’s drills. Milley also emphasized the need “to put in place policies and procedures to make sure that we increase certainty,” trust and stability “in order to avoid miscalculation and reduce the possibility of great power war.”
Pentagon spokesman John Kirby poured cold water on Milley’s comments on Friday, saying coordination between the US and Russian militaries was restricted as “a matter of policy and law” due to tensions over Ukraine.
An article on the Aussie subs, created by the Australian Prime Minister Turnbull, who ordered the French subs back in 2015.
He seems contemptuous of the nuclear decision, at best!
https://www.smh.com.au/national/australia-will-have-to-go-nuclear-to-keep-nuclear-subs-running-20210928-p58vf2.html
After considering this further, because the Aust Govt never has an original idea of its own on these types of matters but merely implements what London or Washington wants, we have to ask who is behind the SSN sub agenda.
The odds seen to favor the UK wanting to indirect stick its nose into China and Asia following BREXIT as they no longer have to pander to EU policies which are more China friendly.
Whether thats to do with Hong Kong or investments in Asian region or monetary issues over China is unclear.
Interesting times indeed!
This is the first time I have commented on any of the Sakers Channels.
I think it is Great that the West has pulled out of the most idiotic war its been in since the Vietnamese War. Don’t get me wrong, I can’t justify any war where we went besides the First Gulf War since 1960.
I think we need to look at China very closely, China is about to fall off a demographic and Economic Cliff face; this is the only explanation I can think of.
China has copied Japans “Window Economic Strategy” pick a few key industry sectors like Toyota has done and with the backing of the Central Bank, and Banking Industry buy Market Dominance; its taken Toyota nearly 7 Decades to get its position as number 1 in the Automotive industry!
However China like Japan is in the process of falling off the demographic cliff and like Japan it will go into Stag Deflation if it isn’t already in it. This is why Xi is behaving erratically, and making comments like China has to take over Taiwan etc is just a smoke screen to keep the people distracted!
The US, UK are fanning the smoke by sailing their massive and powerful aircraft Carriers through international waters!
Japan needs to get off its chuff and start building proper Aircraft Carriers and Submarines and produce more of its own fighter jets and Battle Cruisers!
We all know how tough the South Korean Troops are and they are great ship builders as well!
However I hope Xi comes to his senses and stops his stupid imperialist rants!
India is mentioned throughout the article but never really addressed. It is the biggest aspect of the 3rd world. Along with Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, Bhutan, Afghanistan, Sri Lanka and the Maldives South Asia’s 1 billion 750 million* dominates the 3rd world yet very little is written about the geopolitics of the most populated region of the world. That geopolitics includes several armed secessionist movements since these nations became independent. It also includes the armed Maoists whose goal is to change the existing government and by that differ from the secessionists
The reasons for their determination to break from New Delhi for the most part and the failures of India, Pakistan and Bangladesh are closely linked. I doubt India will remain intact and not knowing the reasons for the reconfiguration of this nation is blind spot for most.
*Africa 1 billion 150 million. East Asia (China/Japan, Koreas, Taiwan) 1 billion 600 million, SE Asia 650 million, Central Asia + Russia 325 million, Europe 771 million, West Asia 350 million