[this column was written for the Unz Review]
I have to admit that before I sat down to write this column I had some misgivings: I thought “not *another* article warning about a potential explosion in the Ukraine! Not again!”. And yet, events on the ground are what they are and ignoring them under the pretext that I am fed up “crying wolf” again and again is not a wise solution either. I will try to keep it short though. First, let me provide you a quick summary of what has been happening in the Ukraine since my last column about the Ukraine on June 28th.
As most of you know, NATO and the Ukraine have been conducting maneuvers on the Black Sea, air and land called “Sea Breeze”. This is nothing new, but this year these maneuvers attracted more countries than usual, see for yourself:
Officially, 32 countries from six continents providing 5,000 troops, 32 ships, 40 aircraft, and 18 special operations and dive teams are participating in this exercise: Albania, Australia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Denmark, Egypt, Estonia, France, Georgia, Greece, Israel, Italy, Japan, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Morocco, Norway, Pakistan, Poland, Romania, Senegal, Spain, South Korea, Sweden, Tunisia, Turkey, Ukraine, United Arab Emirates, United Kingdom, and the United States. Kristina Kvien, the chargé d’affaires at the U.S. Embassy in Ukraine, declared that “USS Ross‘ participation in this year’s Sea Breeze maritime exercise is a tangible demonstration of U.S. support for Ukraine and is necessary now more than ever (…) it is part of the enduring commitment that the United States and our NATO Allied and partner nations have made since 1997 to enhance maritime security in the Black Sea”.
Now here are a few examples of what the Ukies are saying:
- Let’s see if the accursed Mokal’s will dare to shoot at the Ross which (at least according to the Ukies) can sink the entire Russian Black Sea Fleet with one salvo of its super-dooper Tomahawk missiles.
- The Ukraine now has missiles which can bring down the bridge over the Kerch Strait.
- The USA is delivering us fast attack boats while Turkey is giving us Bairaktar drones – with those we will liberate Crimea and the Donbass from the accused Moskal’.
- The Ukrainian military is now the best in Europe (in fact, it protects the entire EU from assaults by the Russian hordes) and it will make minced meat of the Russians for sure the next time around.
- In their current format, the Minsk Agreements are dead and we will never implement them. If the Moskal’ refuse to amend them then we also have a plan B: to build a big wall and totally cut all our ties with Russia. Either that, or we will liberate Crimea and the Donbass manu militari!
- The next time the accursed Moskal’ try to prevent a Ukie vessel from traversing the Kerch Strait we will sink any force trying to stop us.
[Sidebar: keep in mind that all TV channels which are not controlled by Ze have now been banned. The Ukie Rada passed a law declaring that Russians are not native to the Ukraine (makes me wonder where they came from, outer space I suppose). All the main leaders of the rather uninspiring opposition are constantly harassed or even kept under house arrest. All this is to say that the insane examples of what the Ukronazis are saying above is not some minority of hardcore delusional Ukronazis – this is what many of the members of the party of Ze (and others!) are openly saying 24/7.]
Now, let’s cut to the chase and see what is really going on!
| Party | Official position |
| Official White House | We want to contain Russia, maintain a dialog where it is in the interests of the USA and we will defend our friends and values in the region and the whole world |
| US/NATO/EU officials | We will resist any Russian provocation or use of force, we have the means to force Russia to renounce her plans to rebuild the Soviet Union. |
| Ukronazis | The world is with us. Russia is weak and isolated. The US, NATO and our invincible military will teach a painful lesson to the Russian bear which really belongs East of the Urals (the latter are the natural border between the EU and China). We are now rehearsing the liberation of Crimea with our allies. |
| Russians | Just try |
Let’s sum this up: while the top US officials have not held the same kind of language as the US, UK and Dutch Navy officers on their ships last week, it is pretty clear that one of two things will happen: either NATO will try to “poke the bear” or they won’t.
- In the first case, NATO will have looked like it “blinked” and that for all its posturing, NATO is afraid of taking on Russia.
- In the second case, Russia will sink a NATO ship (or shoot down a NATO aircraft) and if NATO does not reply, it will have blinked, hard and with both eyes.
Both of these outcomes are highly undesirable for the US, NATO or the Empire. These outcomes are also bad news for the EU (which cannot afford to lose NS2 to some silly three letter agency provocation against Russia).
The main problem is that many western officials have declared urbi et orbi that “the civilized world (by that we mean “us” of course) has not recognized the Russian annexation of Crimea and, therefore, we don’t recognize the waters off Crimea as legit Russian waters”. This must have sounded really cool to the first simpletons who declared this, but the Ukies and their UK+3B+PU have immediately, and logically (in their own simple-minded way), declared “okay, great! Prove it by ignoring the Russian warnings and send something across this Russian “red line” to prove to the world that you are not only bark and no bite”. In other words, this is yet another iteration of a favorite challenge amongst US teenagers: “and whatcha gonna do about it?”.
Frankly, this is a legit question. And the US/NATO have until July 10th (this Saturday) to answer it. Okay, I guess they could also answer it after Sea Breeze 2021 is over, but since US Americans (and their clueless NATO counterparts) believe that coalition warfare is the way to victory (in reality, it is a way to defeat, as I have explained it in this article) and the real leaders of the Empire also believe that large coalitions offer a veneer of legitimacy (they don’t, as only a UNSC Resolution can) to their (imperialistic and illegal) actions with lots of small Tabaquis to make it all look kosher.
Furthermore, in the Ukronazi media the SeaBreeze 2021 is presented like this: “hey, Moskal’, it is way easier to threaten a small Ukrainian vessel than to take on NATO!!! Right?! If you just move, we will kick your asses from the Black Sea to Siberia (where you belong!)”; and the conclusion, “we are invincible, NATO is invincible, the US is invincible and the entire civilized world, which is also invincible, is against you”.
As for the clueless (and spineless and brainless) EU leaders, they talk about “containing” Russia by interacting with her “from a position of force”. In other words, this is what is really happening now: NATO encourages the Ukraine to try something, the Ukraine encourages NATO to try something, and both sides take a great deal of (quite misplaced) pride in ignoring not only the Russian warnings, but also the Russian capabilities.
I should also mention that much of the imperial propaganda machine (aka “the free press”) is also hyping the expectations of those who still take them seriously. Their message: “our invincible navies will kick the Russian bear in the ass and teach him a lesson”. Rah! Rah! Rah!
In other words: unless the US/NATO/Ukies trigger some kind of incident, the US/NATO/Ukies will lose face by the 11th of this month.
As for Putin, this is what he had to say recently when asked about the risks of a major war:
“Here is what I would like to say. You said that this put the world on the brink of a global war. No, of course, not. Even if we had sunk that ship, it is nevertheless difficult to imagine that this would have put the world on the brink of a third world war because those who did this know they could not win a war like that. This is very important.”
Pretty clear, no?
Putin will come under a lot of pressure, and even outright anger, if he does not back his words with some real action. This is an election year and the Kremlin simply cannot afford being all bark and no bite.
Last, but not least, from a geostrategic/military point of view, the Russian military cannot afford to ignore NATO’s actions.
Conclusion: alas, only more crying wolf…
Crying wolf is a very thankless task, and in the case of the Nazi-occupied Ukraine, this is made even worse by the fact that every time the wolf fails to show up, an increasing number of people get used to the idea that the wolf (or bear) turned into a demure and fully tamed koala.
We shall soon find out which side will “blink” and which one won’t.
The Saker
didn’t South Korea back out from the collective exercise after the British destroyer incident?
Yes.
“Seoul reportedly decided to not participate in Sea Breeze 21 after considering the strategic environment surrounding the Korean Peninsula, including Russia’s role and relations with both Koreas, as well as the lack of availability and capacity to deploy ships to the Black Sea.”
Plain English: ‘We’re not going to antagonise the bear at the moment because if push comes to shove, it can take our head off if it wants to and we don’t think you’ll be of much help if that happens. Please have a good day.’
https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/2021/06/30/national/defense/drill-Navy-alliance/20210630184300187.html
My concern has more to do with the near-completion of the NS2 pipeline. Once this pipeline is finished and integrated with the Western pipeline system, it will be very hard for Germany to shut it down. So, time is quickly running out for “some” event to occur which will enable repudiation of NS2.
I imagine that there are a series of pre-planned provocations, each of which is carefully crafted to draw Russia into some action which will enable a ‘righteous’ shutdown of NS2. It will probably start with small stuff, and escalate until Russia has to respond. Then, it will be proclaimed that Russia is the baddie, and NS2 will be anathema.
I would have a timetable of NS2 completion events in front of me, and calculate the probability of various ‘actions’ occurring by those dates. This includes False Flags, if nothing else works. I hope I am wrong, but NS2 seems to be the ‘hill to die upon’ for the Empire…
While we talk about the Black Sea, there is almost no mention of Blue Stream, whose two lines have been delivering gas to Turkey for almost 20 years, and the recent Turkish Stream (This gas pipeline has two strings, the first string will deliver gas to Turkey, while the second string is intended for gas transit to southern and southeastern Europe through Turkish territory).
That pipeline is essential for the German chemical industry
Gazprom contracts with Germany tend to be Take-or-Pay
That’s exactly my concern too. NS2 (and perhaps a NS3) is Germany’s hope for a future liberation from the empire. A politically correct shutdown of the pipeline is the industrial suicide for the wasall state of Germany.
The real question is why ukraine did not launch its military operation in the donbass in april this year when everything was ready on all sides.
Because Ukraine would have lost the war and the West would have lost Ukraine (broken into pieces for others to take away.)
The Ukraine will break apart sooner or later anyway. It’s inevitable, it’s the fate of every totalitarian/fascist country…
Indeed. The threat to Ukraine lies in its own making. Depopulation. The Ukraine is literally bleeding people; from a peak of 51 million in the early 90s to 41 million today. Anyone with any sense of ambitions is getting out pronto. Not surprising since it is the poorest country in Europe, poorer even than Uganda in Africa. It is being kept alive by IMF drip-feeding whilst it slowly subsides into insignificance. Let it rot, and let it die. It is a neo-nazi abomination.
@ Donald Duck
41 Million is a bit over-optimistic. I read an article about the ‘bread standard’ a few years ago, and based on the ‘consumption of bread’ the most basic of staples and the true guage of what countries population consumes when ‘there is nothing else’ (a bankrupt country always gives up bread last), Ukraine’s population is between 30-35 million. (wish I could post the ‘bread standard’ article somewhere here but ‘alas’ my bookmark links are gone.)
I think I need to take a break… this is all getting quite depressing.
I don’t think this is depressing at all….its a pussy standoff by Ukato
Hopefully this migh just cheer you up ….
UFO: From the point of view of the pilots of the UFO’s
https://youtu.be/phG999W3NWU
NATO and the US are paper tigers, they know it, we know it and most importantly so do the Russians. The US are not going to come to the aid of the Ukies, Jens may allow the rabid poles and some tri state minions to get wiped out 10km over the Russian border but that’s it. For now. Its just rubbish to be printed in western press to keep the illusion going that US/NATO power rules the roost. It doesn’t, not even in the third world. Sure they (and the pathetic British) will keep poking the bear, which will occasionally wake from its nap and fart at them (enough to send them scurrying home) It is a constant state of tension which maintains a rocky balance of sorts. That’s what geopolitics always has been. Russia is doing its best to deal with this and is being sensible and successful at doing so. The question is will someone by accident alter this somewhat perilous state of affairs – are the Ukies dumb enough?
NATO via Turkey had already shot down a Russian war plane. (side bar: before this Serbia was bombed into submission by NATO)
The Ukraine was excised from Russian influence.
The Brits’ warship had entered waters, claimed to be Russian by Russia in Crimea, with weapons loaded and ready to fire.
Now a multinational military exercise is on-going in the Black Sea – right at Russia’s soft underbelly.
The latest provocation happened right after a highly expectant summit with Biden on which Putin appeared to put so much hope that he even repeated his old dream of a Europe from Lisbon to Vladivostok.
I really think that Putin should not have agreed to the summit with Biden. In meeting with Biden, Putin had expended too much political capital with little to show for it – which is exactly what the US intended. And exposed a weakness.
Russia does not have a soft underbelly. she has the 58th Army, the southern MD and the BSF.
ALL her borders are hard to.
That underbelly canard is over a century old.. .
The latest …
Chinese and Russian scientists have developed an AI digital electronic jamming device introduced into hundreds of orbiting satellites that lay a protective anti nuclear field over any designated territory they propose.
The leader in this research was Zhang Zhijian, the vice-president of Harbin Engineering University the college of nuclear science and technology the vice-president of the Chinese Nuclear Society. He was also a member of the standing committee of the Communist Party committee at the university. Sadly he recently fell to his death from a high building on the 18 June this year. There were no suspicous circumstances.
Those who doubt the excellence of Chinese/Russian research in in this area might apply to join the many happy parents that desire to supervise their offspring at play school whenever possible.
That the possibility that nuclear weapons can be aerially disabled before they reach their target has created a storm in the western capitals of Washington and London.
Information regarding this development is highly secret yet the latest positions of Washington and others make it plain any proactive nucelar threat is not on the table.
Of course those followers of the ‘Saker’ are well aware of how reliable, valuable and incontriversial any information I post here can and will effect the international balance of power. When I mention nukes I am not referring to how long my (stunningly beautiful) assistant needs to microwave my dinner.
So anyone doubting my conclusions do so at their own peril. I am not kidding! My video regarding the scientific details will come out shortly.
All I could say is that no one the status of Zhang Zhijian falls to his death from a high building without “suspicious circumstances”.
I await the video with relish. Of course the Starfish experiments were in part designed to learn how to fry incoming nukes and machines in orbit, so it’s perfectly logical that in the rational space the Chinese and Russians – civilizations that value wisdom and knowledge and the not stupid condition would explore such “AI devices, methods. I do have doubts though – the Starfish rodeo approach might very well fry the AI in orbit…and start a big big rodeo.
Awaiting video.
& thanks for welcome idea!
@ simon chow
Get real dude, Putin expected the same as anyone with a half his brain, NADA.
If you believe Russia’s response exposed weakness then you’re braindead like 80% of the Western world.
Those were acts of desperation by a decaying/declining Empire, an intended show of strength which failed miserably and will have the no-show countries rushing to sign up to Russia & China’s Agenda.
The perceived weakness is one of resolve. The bear had allowed its buttocks to be “fondled” many times, so to speak.
There must be a less wimpy way for Russia to show her resolve besides “blunt” words which are just so much water off a duck’s back.
Prior to WW2, if wimpy “peace in our time” Chamberlain (then British PM) had shown resolve, Hitler would likely be deterred and WW2 avoided.
As it was, Hitler steadily took territory with repeated acts of aggression. Each time, Britain the supposed “balancer” of Europe, stood down. It was only when Hitler invaded Poland that Britain took action. By then it was too late to deter Hitler from launching WW2 in Europe.
Both Russia and China must now show resolve in deterring the aggression of the Hegemon and its allies.
I don’t know what people are talking about or thinking?
If you noticed Russia shut down the suicidal game NATO the US and Ukraine played in April/May and everyone went to water!
Then we had the replay with “Defender” and then the Dutch Vessel of….”Into the Valley of Death rode the 600!”
And if you also noted Putin and Xi just let everyone know ……. Pick on one and you get both of us!
Putin is not going to be goaded into a false move, he wants to finish NS2 and shackle Germany in place because their Industries will go bonkers if anyone touches that Gas Supply.
As the Saker said……. There is no soft underbelly …….. Just intelligent people with the grunt to put a serious dent in the ego’s of those daring to chance their arm.
This is not World Wrestling and all show? Both China and Russia will build their economies and wait as the US and Europe squander their efforts to separate them…. It ain’t going to happen.
Why waste their money and resources but when the time comes it won’t be………. “By then it was too late to deter Hitler from launching WW2 in Europe.” ……..It will be “Everyone will know their place” and you work it out which side of the table you would prefer?
He who wears too many hats, can get lost too many ways.
“Prior to WW2, if wimpy “peace in our time” Chamberlain (then British PM) had shown resolve, Hitler would likely be deterred and WW2 avoided.”
You forget that Hitler was, after all, an agent of Britain and the “Western World”. Why would Britain sacrifice a good tool to keep communists at bay on the facist-ruled countries? Just to save Moravia, or Poland?
French and Britain decided to face Germany only after they lost control of their own Frankenstein.
Exactly. The rulers of most European countries looked at fascism as a bulwark against communism. Most countries in Europe was fascist or had many fascist supporters, including Great Britain. Churchill did not initially look at fascism as a negative force, he did however comment on the antisemites of Nazi Germany that he thought irrational. Fascism did not become a problem before the axis powers started their millitary expansion. Even without nazism we would probably have gotten ww2. It was bound to happen aften the ww1 treaties and economic turmoil in Germany. Ww2 was just another war about resources and geopolitics, but portrayed as a epic battle between good and evil, Hollywood style.
If you know nothing about a topic, better to say nothing than be exposed for ignorance. Fact; England declared war upon Germany, not vice versa.
“If you know nothing about a topic, better to say nothing than be exposed for ignorance. Fact; England declared war upon Germany, not vice versa.”
But that was 1939, while the Third Reich began in 1933 had a lot of room for maneuver during 6 years. A time they took advantage of by strengthening their military and annexed Austria and Czechoslovakia. Chamberlain didn’t declare war by then, and for a good reason.
For the good reason that he wanted Hitler to attack the Soviet Union. UK did nothing to help Poland, what followed was the phoney war. And later Churchill wanted the war, probably because it was a risk that Hitler could win and Nazi-Germany become a great power.
“The Brits’ warship had entered waters, claimed to be Russian by Russia in Crimea, with weapons loaded and ready to fire.”…..and what happened ?, the Brits beat a hasty retreat with their proverbial tails firmly be their legs , lied incessantly for a few days (with the help of a very complicit press) until Russia’s provided proof ended their perfidy.
Even without Crimea being reintegrated into Russia – the Naval Base on Crimea was leased by Russia and British warships had no right to enter a secure zone – especially one with an Exclusion Zone between 04/2021 and 10/2021
Europe from Lisbon to Vladivostok. That is also Germany’s EU and US’s Nato dream but preferably with Russia being put in her subservient place, hence Nato knocking on Russia’s door.
After Putin, there is a good chance of that happening – a subservient Russia. From my view, that’s why Putin is being personally targeted – to discredit him in the eyes of the Russian people.
So you really think that Putin is the only man in Russia setting policy ….
Behind Putin is a plethora of competent people. One of them will take his place and Russia will carry on. The momentum that currently exists in Russia will carry on about 12 to 20 years on the current course, mental inertia is the term to remember.
ad hominem removed …mod
If there are “competent” people behind Putin, why did they advise him to waste so much political capital to meet a very dodgy agreement incapable (Putin’s words) US president?
Why did they advise him to stand down his troop deployment near Ukraine that was in response to Ukrainian aggression? To show his sincerity to the Hegemon?
All Putin got was a tweak to his nose through the Brit’s provocation and the current NATO-led muscle-flexing through the Sea Breeze exercise. How would the neutral world see Putin from now on?
The shadow play goes on until the real blow comes. But the initiative is now in the hands of the Hegemon.
A further point, the current multilateral military show of force is to get the world to further see who is the real and decisive world leader. The next show of force will be against China.
My hunch is that unless the Hegemon is checked in his track or both Russia and China capitulate and/or God Almighty intervenes, WW3 is virtually inevitable.
“If there are “competent” people behind Putin, why did they advise him to waste so much political capital to meet a very dodgy agreement incapable (Putin’s words) US president? ”
Where do you get the idea that Putin or Russia are “wasting political capital” for just attending an informal summit? This is just a diplomatic meeting, nothing else. How many do they attend per year or per month with other presidents or premiers?
“Why did they advise him to stand down his troop deployment near Ukraine that was in response to Ukrainian aggression? ”
Perhaps because deploying troops is an expensive measure, only justified when a real threat emerges.
“All Putin got was a tweak to his nose through the Brit’s provocation and the current NATO-led muscle-flexing through the Sea Breeze exercise. How would the neutral world see Putin from now on?”
The “tweek to his nose” is your interpretation and, although I respect your opinion, I deem it unrealistic.
@Andres. The Geneva summit was not an informal diplomatic meet. The delegations on both sides were massive – about 400 high-ranking officials from both sides. Expectations were high.
“Expectations were high.”
Expectations from whom? Not at least from informed people and, as far as I know, Russia is not desperate to make any move or counter any specific sanction.
If expectations were not high on both sides, why the massive size of and seniority of the members of both delegations?
Por que vc insiste nessa tese sobre expectativas? Putin declarou em alto e bom som que iria para essa reunião sem nenhuma expectativa. Se havia alguma espectativa ela era de biden ou seja, de que os russos iriam se impressionar com a retórica vazia daquele boneco de pano. Putin foi, e isso ficou muito claro o tempo todo, só para não dar o pretexto para a propaganda dos eua acusar a Rússia de ter boicotado o encontro. Vc leva realmente a sério o que faz uma suposta potência como os eua, que integra numa pantomima de manobra um navio de uma marinha como a do brasil??? Vc sabe no que o brasil foi transformado pelos eua? Vc acha que os russos não estão rolando no chão de tanto rir ao analizar os “recursos” que os eua alocaram para formar essa força?
Why do you insist on this thesis about expectations? Putin declared loud and clear that he would go to this meeting without any expectations. If there was any expectation it was biden, meaning that the Russians would be impressed by the empty rhetoric of that rag doll. Putin was, and this has been very clear all along, just so as not to provide the pretext for US propaganda to accuse Russia of boycotting the meeting. Do you really take seriously what a supposed power like the USA does, which integrates a ship from a navy like the one in Brazil into a maneuvering pantomime??? Do you know what Brazil was transformed into by the USA? Do you think the Russians aren’t rolling on the floor with laughter as they analyze the “resources” that the US has allocated to build this force?
Simon,
A few days ago you wrote:
To which I replied:
Swapping ”Russia” and ”China” and also replacing ”Germany’s Adrian NonZenz” with ”Russia’s Analny Navalny” is all that’s needed to get a 100% appropriate verdict here.
Nussiminem, if China fights the US and its allies, China will need Russia to watch its western flanks and some intelligence help in the Indian Ocean.
Direct military help from Russia is unlikely at this stage since Russian forces are tied up West of the Urals.
China would need some technological help from Russia. It is still not too late to pass on high output jet engine technology to China. That should fully power up China’s J20.
My bet is that the first round between China and the US in the western Pacific would be a draw but advantage to China because China is fighting an existential ear at its doorstep.
That is very unrealistic that Russia will simply just pass on her crown jewel to another nation like that. China, to Russia, is a strategy partner and there will never be permanent buddy in geopolitics. Cooperation is possible but giving up one’s asset is just fantasy
@vientito. But Russia is a permanent neighbour to China, no? Russia and China have no choice but to live in peace and friendship indefinitely.
Besides sooner or later, China will master the technology of high output jet engines. It is a matter of timing. The sooner China gets the tech, the better for all including for Russia since China would then be better able to seize air superiority in the coming fight.
So it is better for all if Russia passes on the technology now. Of course, it will not be for free.
Simon,
You stated –
“If there are “competent” people behind Putin, why did they advise him to waste so much political capital to meet a very dodgy agreement incapable (Putin’s words) US president?”
The reason for the meeting, which was called for by the American side, could be because –
“Foreign policy aims to prevent conflicts with neighbors and to develop their peaceful relations. However, Westerners have abandoned this objective to adopt the promotion of their collective interests to the detriment of other actors.”
– Thierry Meyssan
maybe you should read this article –
https://www.voltairenet.org/article213592.html
Thank you!
Sudhi, I read through the article several times. But not sure what the author is trying to convey. Likely the Google translation is wanting.
But from what I could gauge, I can say this: that the whole analysis reflects an underlying mindest of aggression including the quoted authorities – Aristotle, Mackinder and Mahan.
Aristotle’s advice to Alexander was so that he could maintain his empire, so that the empire he was about to establish by conquest can last. But ultimately Aristotle’s advice was so that Alexander could conserve the fruits of his aggression, not to restrain his aggression – which would be the better advice.
Of course, both Mackinder’s and Mahan’s propositions are models of thought aimed at domination of the world i.e. domination by aggression.
But I look at it differently and likely because of my Chinese background. I look at the world inhabited by nations, tribes, clans and families, each with its own culture and subculture and not as lands the resources of which I woud plot to dominate and acquire by aggression and conquest.
Of course, I would need some of those resources, including the human capital of those lands to help me to develop my own country.
But I would acquire those resources by trade and diplomacy and not by conquest, domination and plunder.
So the peoples of those lands are the main resource and opportunity. More so because they have already ‘subdued’ the land so to speak and know best how to govern it and use its resources.
So geopolitics for me is first about diplomacy and driving the diplomacy is trade. And trade is about enriching both sides. On diplomacy and trade rest all the other criteria for human intercourse in this less than ideal world.
Through peaceful diplomacy and trade, both sides could develop and grow. But through aggression and domination? Both sides are diminished and ultimately likely to become extinct.
I took a look at history and saw that those kingdoms of the world which relied mainly on military power to enrich themselves – virtually all are extinct today.
Simon,
The article is mainly about development of international law, it is mentioned there –
“The idea of a legal settlement of international relations was pushed by Russian Tsar Nicholas II. The idea is simple: only principles adopted in common are acceptable, never those imposed by the strongest. These principles must reflect the diversity of humanity.”
The author while praising certain world leaders and countries decries others –
“First and foremost, these men sought to develop their country. They did not base their foreign policy on a geopolitical strategy, but on the identity of their country. On the contrary, the present West sees international relations as a chessboard on which we could impose a World Order via a geopolitical strategy.”
and clearly states –
“Geopolitics in the strict sense of the term is therefore not a science, but a strategy of domination.”
“Westerners claim that every country must respect the equality of rights of its inhabitants, but they fiercely oppose equality between states.”
“It follows artificial distinctions and grotesque amalgamations for the sole purpose of legitimizing imperialism.”
In effect the author helps your present arguments by stating –
“If we return to the examples of the great men of the XX-XXIst centuries who were acclaimed not only at home, but abroad, for their foreign policy, we note that it was not linked to their military capacities. They did not try to conquer or annex new territories, but to spread the image they had of their own country and its culture.”
“Soft underbelly” is term from time when power projection – namely artillery range, precission and damage was limited.
Since ICBMs (and hypersonics) you can safely assume that whole world is one big fat underbelly.
Seems few understand that Kings are no more safe and out of the arrow-range on battlefield. Nor is their princesses back home.
“These people must know, however, that we will smash ALL of their teeth, so that they will not be able to bite anything anymore.”
Enough said.
I really think that Putin should not have agreed to the summit with Biden. In meeting with Biden, Putin had expended too much political capital with little to show for it – which is exactly what the US intended. And exposed a weakness.
It’s more likely Putin bought time, & a chance to observe Biden with his own eyes & ears. Time for North stream pipeline to complete construction. Time to implement economic contingency plans. Time for the Russian military to bring new systems online. First hand observations to share with Xi Jinping at their recently concluded summit.
Since everybody already knows the US government, regardless of whoever occupies the White House, is not agreement capable, what did Putin have to lose? I would argue the Russian military already gamed the HMS Defender scenario long before Putin’s meeting with Biden, therefore it was not much of a surprise.
Now that Putin’s been backed into a corner, if a similar provocation occurs he has no choice but to allow the Russian military to use force. An analyst from a different site said the Russian military will still try to exercise restraint by hitting rudders & engines with cannon fire first, instead of unleashing Zircons right away.
Yeah, they should have shot away the Defender’s rudder, make NATO has to tow it away.
That should have been the correct message.
Disabling the HMS Defender’s rudder, besides being dangerous, would not have achieved a better result. The result the Russians wanted was for HMS Defender to leave, and leave she did.
Then the British made themselves look even stupider by trying to lie about the whole thing (in an age where even refrigerators come equipped with cameras).
For those who are disappointed by Russia’s ‘lack of action’ (I don’t believe it’s a lack of action JFTR), I would postulate that Russia is quite happy to watch FUKUS et al make idiots of themselves, domestically and internationally, on an almost daily basis.
Need proof, Biden quite literally knelt before two Israeli politicians (either yesterday or today).
No, Russia need do nothing for the moment, I don not believe that would server her interests in any meaningful way.
Firing live rounds at an adversary’s vessel with the intention of damaging or sinking that vessel could quickly get out of hand in an area full of competing military infrastructure.
What would happen if uninvited a Russian navy unit sailed up the the River Thames?
Easy: Soaring Novichok addiction/poisoning stats. Millions of Skripals all over UK.
Simon I’m going to go out on a limb here and guess that you have no experience being in either a naval command position or responsible for ruling a nation of 100+ million people while under the constant threat of nuclear annihilation. But if you have such experience, forgive me, you’re probably right, and clearly the clueless professionals in the Russian military should promote you up the ranks….
@Krungle, I am one of those global citizens who want to contribute my part to world peace however small.
It is my observation that those in power virtually always suffer from various degrees of the “Emperor’s new clothes” syndrome.
But just for interest’s sake, allow me to suggest what I would do if I wield enough authority. Bear in mind that the bully had already thrown a punch although it turned out to be a feint. But a punch it was.
1) I would first disable the HMS Defender by shooting off its rudders and give a warning that any further false move, I would blow the entire ship off the surface of the black sea.
2) I would allow NATO to tow away the disabled Defender at a time which I will specify and only at that time and hour. And NATO will be allowed to tow away the Defender under my guns and missiles.
3) Then I would test fire at least one ICBM to hit target in the Kamchatka Peninsula (Yeltsin did the same when he was provoked by the Hegemon).
4) I will redeploy troops at the Ukraine border to pressure the Hegemon and its allies.
5) I would arm the militaries of both the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republic to the teeth and ask them to start salami-slicing territories from Ukraine with assistance from my special forces.
A wimpy response like that of Chamberlain to Hitler just before WW2 in Europe will result in very much worse damage for both sides.
The Summit was to get Biden off the hook.
Provoking Russia through UKR led to a mobilisation of Russian Forces to the UKR border at a speed NATO had not envisaged
But why let Biden off the hook? Isn’t Biden ‘hooked’ exactly where Russia wants Biden to be?
And what did Russia get for letting Biden “off the hook”? Let Biden “off the hook” for the sake of a summit and what it portends to promise? Sounds like a con game to me.
it is not sensible to humiliate the opponent’s president/leaders. You may need good relations in the future. For Russia ad China the key is now to assess Biden, to find out who is pulling the strings, is Biden as demented as has been alleged and if so who is really important in the USA. Summits are extremely useful for this.
It is more important for Russia/China to get a good look because there has been a change in US administration.
Stalin thought that about Hitler and even signed a peace treaty with him even when Hitler’s aggression was increasingly demonstrated.
See what happened?
“Stalin thought that about Hitler and even signed a peace treaty with him even when Hitler’s aggression was increasingly demonstrated.
See what happened?”
Oh… but there is a detail that makes a lot of difference: Stalin decimated the Red Army by purging competent officers, to the point that the war with Finland over Karelia has been won at a too-steep price. Putin, on the other side, strengthened the Russian Army.
Hitler was able to attack not only for the meticulous German preparedness but also for many Russian/Soviet faux-pas. Had the Red Army been in shape, the Barbarossa operation may have had a totally different outcome.
”Had the Red Army been in shape, the Barbarossa operation may have had a totally different outcome.”
Ahem, the Red Army defeated Nazi Germany. Sometimes the urge to slander Stalin’s USSR leads to ”fascinating” conclusions. Ergo: Had the Red Army been in shape, Barbarossa may have turned out an epic success. First time ever I saw ”Stalin’s paranoia” being suggested as the ultimate explanation behind Stalin’s undisputed military victory.
Verdade. Stalin era um bobinho que estava transferindo seu parque industrial para os urais só porque não tinha nada mais interessante para fazer e não por ter a certeza matemática que Hitler atacaria Rússia. O anti stalinismo realmente produz cada coisa
inacreditávelmente fantástica.
Truth. Stalin was a fool who was transferring his industrial park to the Urals just because he had nothing more interesting to do and not because he was mathematically certain that Hitler would attack Russia. Anti-Stalinism really produces everything
unbelievably fantastic.
Simon Chow, I like you. You are smart, insightful. You look for new angles and don’t despise reflection. The world is going through a very serious moment. We need to look at it from many angles.
Thank you, Hipolito Suk, for the compliments. I was just contributing my two cents’ worth, like many others.
‘see what happened’?
Wehrmacht annihilated, Germany and the ‘Europe’ to be saved from Bolshevism occupied, the Nazi ‘command’ hanged, Hitler putting a bullet in his head to avoid hanging, USSR the hyper-power to be reckoned with.
And all this because the Red Army supposedly wasn’t in shape, LOL. As for Nazi Germany, its Officer Corps was welcomed with open arms by NATO exactly 10 years after WW2 ended. Quite impressive ”de-Nazificaton” in the Federal Republic of Germany.
There seems to be two versions of what happened at the Geneva summit. The American media is presenting it as nothing much happened. The anternative media (Pepe Escobar, Meyssan, etc.) say the West offered a major de-escalation of tensions. The danger is that both sides may have a correct reading. The Empire seems to have agreed to the completion of Nord Stream 2, and is temporarily offering a reduction of tensions but without any reduction is the military build-up. But this is only a tactical sideways move. German business leaders need NS-2, while Russia no longer needs to sell so much in Europe. As for reduction of tensions, there is zero indication of any long-term reduction of tensions. To the contrary, the political repression in the Ukraine is at a maximum, the Ukie military is as ready as that sorry lot could be, and of course the weapons pour in from Turkey, the US and elsewhere. The Ukraine is already in a serious economic crisis, what skiers call a basket case, and it could explode in the forseeable future. I agree with the Saker that this summer will show what we face. I’m betting a little bit on peace because high oil prices could damage the US economic recovery, but I could lose the bet and we could lose the peace.
Putin like any politician will say nice things, even if he doesn’t believe a word of it, and attend meetings even if he knows nothing much will come of them.
Ending an exercise on the border of Ukraine as a concession is nothing. The US is screaming about a load of nothing? Alright, might as well just offer that to them and see what they do. Because screaming is for the press.
That’s the game and how its played. Its public perception management, and the US inability to reciprocate plays well to the Russians.
That said, Russia is heavily outgunned in the arena of media warfare. So even if as people ask – why doesn’t Russia just expose 9/11 or why is Russia playing along with Covid? Well what is Putin and other renegades from US hegemony going to do about it? Talk and expose what should already be obvious? Remember – this is about what populations believe. And half of them are usually convinced by certain too-big-to-be-untrue propaganda campaigns that Western media put out. This half needs to be managed and catered to if you don’t want it sowing division within your borders. Because even in Russia 5th columns exist who will seize upon a vulnerability which can even be inconvenient truths. So the game needs to be played. Even if there are magical pieces on the chessboard that you opponent made up. It is sometimes easier to play and even take advantage of it in your favor than to convince the sizable fooled public that it isn’t there, because they are already convinced the piece is attacking. And you can also tell your opponent that he cannot make that next move because his their own imaginary piece is in the way.
This is why Putin wastes his time at these things. It’s part and parcel with how the world works. When the West declares its pawns to be queens, then there’s no reason not to point at your pawn and call it a queen too by their own criteria and thus move as you like. So with 9/11 terrorists, so with white supremacy where it doesn’t exist, so as with a pandemic based on PCR testing and redefinitions of words. Putin too will set up his own Russian convenient policies to tackle terrorists, racists and pandemics, in his own way. So the western media can’t declare that Putin supports terrorists, white supremacists or is watching his citizens or Ukranians die of a virus because he’s friends with China or something.
They’ll still try, but if Putin is playing along with any of their narratives, then this makes it much much harder to defame him or Russia.
“…right at Russia’s soft underbelly”.
You do realise that that is only a metaphor, don’t you? It may have been introduced by Winston Churchill in reference to the Axis in Europe. He was thinking of a crocodile – which does indeed have a soft underbelly in sharp contrast to its heavily armoured back – and identified the “soft underbelly” with Italy, the weakest partner in the Axis. Not long after, Italy dropped out of the Axis, proving Churchill right. (Although invading the German Reich from Italy would not have been a pleasant task for any general; the Alps are not really tank country).
As the Saker points out, Russia doesn’t have a “soft underbelly”. In fact, by far the most yielding organ in the vicinity is… the Ukraine. And it’s on NATO’s side.
Right on cue, Sergey Lavrov gave a blunt interview:
“Any US attempts to talk to Russia from a “position of strength” are doomed to failure, and any aggressive move will be met with a harsh response”, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov told the Indonesian Rakyat Merdeka newspaper.
We have blunt comments from President Putin, blunt remarks from the Russian Military, blunt comments from Duma officials.
If anyone in the West miscalculates, they will suffer. The Bear is going nowhere and his turf is inviolable.
The Ukies are begging for a war. They think the loss of a few score tanks and some ‘heavenly hundreds’ more are worth their goal to get NATO to come rescue them.
But, that is not what will occur. All participants of any attack or offensive against Russia will be destroyed. Kiev will be destroyed as a government. Ukraine will be fractured and when the sulphur and smoke settle, Ukraine will no longer exist. In the Black Sea, just one 4-unit group of Bal missile defenses have enough missiles to take down all 32 ships in the exercise. But likely salvos of missiles will swarm those ships. And one or more of the six subs from the Black Sea Fleet will finish off whatever vessels needs a shove to the bottom.
The Russians already demonstrated air power over these ships, flying ship-bombing routines near the interlopers as the Sea Breeze exercises got underway.
The Black Sea may be international waters, but the reality is the BlackSea is a Russian lake.
If there is a search to generate a cause of war against Russia, so far the West only has its irrational hatred of Russia.
Meanwhile, what is assembled in front of the Russians is a significant group of fools, excited by the imbeciles of nazi Ukraine, cheered on from Washington (who is paying for it all).
Russia will dispatch them all if they make a misstep.
There will be no war. The losers are already ordained and they know it. Putin told them so.
To Larchmonter 445
Oh, my dear, I could not have said it any better!
Vladimir Ilich Lenin’s experiment of a larger Ukraine has failed. Now its time for the south and east (From Kharkov, Donetsk, Lugansk, Dnëprpetrovsk Mariopol to Odessa) to return to the Russian homeland, the rest of the south goes to Moldova so she gets her sea access back. The northeastern part (Galicia) may become independent or return to Poland. The Oblast Caparthia returns to Slovakia or Czechia (since ČSSR does’nt exist anymore unfortunaltely, there would be discussions between Czeck and Slovak governments- possible reunion?) and the so-called borderlands (u-kraina) with Kiev are left.
Executive summary: If you don’t like talking to Lavrov, talk to Shoigu instead.
Hi Saker – excellent article – love your writing when its so much like this.
Another 5 days.
Assuming Seabreeze passes with no major incident, ie shooting between Nato and Russia, it still leaves the US backed coup regime in Kiev, along with the whole toxic mass of eternally Russo phobic countries and NATO vassals in place.
Meanwhile, Turkey, a NATO member is putting military base in Azerbaijan. One more brick in Iron Curtain 2.0
Have you been following the US+Ukie color revolution in Belarus?
They have thrown Belarus into the loving arms of Mother.
With it comes military bases, a decent economy that won’t cost Russia like Donbass or if they had to support the 404 Ukies. And additional population for the Russian economy (bigger internal market). And the Belarus military will fight for and with the Russian Military against anyone.
The Russian military is in position and in control of the situation in Armenia-Azerbaijan. That is now frozen.
Iron Curtain? The West is hanging rainbow-colored lace panties around Russia, not iron.
I don’t have any tears for the Armenian loss in Nagorno-Karabakh. They had 25 years to rectify the expulsion of ethnic Azeris and refused to do so. Ethnic expulsion was not the Christian thing to do, but that is what they did. They watched and did nothing while Azerbaijan became wealthy and powerful. Armenians are supposed to be very intelligent people, but their inaction, their refusal to disarm this time-bomb, was stupid. And unethical.
Let’s be serious, those statements were only for idiot (Ukrainian Public ) consumption.
Imran Khan to Joe Blow – No you can’t have a military base on Pakistani territory but we’ll send Abdul & Achtar (my personal chefs ) with our flags and enough curried goat to feed the frontline in the Donbas . . . and still expect our annual military cheque.
Imagine the noise of Western media and politicians if Russia, China (plus Cuba and Venezuela) would do a naval excersize in the Gulf of Mexico, close to US shores.
It would be seen as an act of war, a provocation which needs to be responded, even if the motive of such excercise would be the protection of Cuba or Venezuela.
Assuming the right to enter the Black Sea and do a “Sea Breeze” is already an act of war irrespective if they generate some provocations.
All those participants of Sea Breeze have opened the doors to Russia to do likewise military excercizes on their coast (Japan? Brazil? Morocco? Senegal?…).
Anyway, we have a good and intelligent leader in Moscow and he will respond intelligently to this new and arbitrary provocation.
Cheers from France
”It would be seen as an act of war, a provocation which needs to be responded, even if the motive of such excercise would be the protection of Cuba or Venezuela.”
Given the Empire’s sorry state, that’s actually a 100% correct assessment. The only nasty little problem is how to ’respond’ except by annihilation of Life on Planet Earth? The cohesion and resolve of the resistance have already become unmanageable for the West’s degenerated leadership. As for the ”Sea Breeze” nonsense, Russia could incapacitate every single participating vessel and get away with it. Unless, that is, the Russians are scared stiff by the indestructible Navalny, forever high on booze, pills, cocaine, and his syringes.
“Just try:” about sums it up.
“A laconic phrase or laconism is a concise or terse statement, especially a blunt and elliptical rejoinder. It is named after Laconia, the region of Greece including the city of Sparta, whose ancient inhabitants had a reputation for verbal austerity and were famous for their blunt and often pithy remarks.
A prominent example involves Philip II of Macedon. After invading southern Greece and receiving the submission of other key city-states, he turned his attention to Sparta and asked menacingly whether he should come as friend or foe. The reply was “Neither.”
Losing patience, he sent the message:
If I invade Laconia, I shall turn you out.
The Spartan ephors again replied with a single word:
If.”
(Wikipedia — https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laconic_phrase )
This Nato ‘seabreeze’ must be an ideal Russian war games exercise target — how convenient that the west has agreed to participate with a full complement of rainbow genders to provide Russia with a realistic adversary in ‘action’ to test their strategic scenario software etc.
I’m sure part of the agenda is to watch the Russians watching etc. But unless there was direct red-line provocation then why would Russia expose any secret technologies to this crowd of comic clowns?
Nord Stream II is not far away and a cold wet winter not long after that. It is going to be hard in Ukie-ville without gas to steal. If the desperate idiots in the west (EU/US) push the button then I don’t know why the Russians don’t just declare the east of Ukraine “terra nullius” and set the Chechens loose for a bit of sport to free any Russian speakers etc.
The Turkstream has been completed today(start operating to Serbia, Bulgaria and Austria on 10/01/21).The neocons with Bolton(he is back) are trying to ”colorrevolutionize’ Erdogan again.
https://www.rt.com/op-ed/528274-democracy-turkey-bolton-absurdity-neocons/
Erdogan should this time made the right move, and say ‘F…Nato’ once and forever).He needs Russian tourism, Nuclear power stations, Turkstream, a market for his agri business, S-400 etc…What are the US/EU buying in Turkey?Not so much.He though must stop playing on both sides, stop providing drones to the Ukrops, stop his support in Syria for the Djihadis in Idlib etc….Nothing will happen in the Black Sea as the worst thing(with the biggest value) for the West, would be a total humiliation as they are sure 100% to lose any war in the area, as Russia plays ‘at home’.
This would almost kill the ”credibility” of NATO/EU, and some EU countries would think twice in staying on this crazy train unable to protect them.Slovenia is following Hungary in a new anti lgbtq fight.
https://www.rt.com/news/528354-slovenia-eu-lgbt-hungary/
Even in Georgia now.
https://www.rt.com/russia/528422-lgbt-campaigners-georgia-march/
Austria is neutral.Switzerland is not in the EU.Same for Serbia. Finland is more reserved about the EU anti Russian path.Bulgaria, Slovakia could follow in the collapse of the EU one day.Same for Greece which used to have Orthodox links with Russia before being occupied by Pyat at the US Embassy.Even Italy on the medium term.
Exactly. Austria is not a NATO country, so they just need to leave the EU to be sovereign – same goes for Finland. Bulgaria and Greece are two orthodox christian countries as you pointed out – sooner or later the must leave the EU and NATO, otherwise they would destroy themselves completely (culturally, demograficly, economically, etc).
And Italy had always pro-Russian tendencies. I want to remind of Palmiro Togliatti and Fiat, which helped building up the Soviet automobile industry (Lada, UAZ, Volga, etc). Italians are fed up with the neoliberal dictate from Brussels and being laughted at by those bureaucrats. The italian industry suffers also because of the imposed sanctions. It’s only a matter of time before the EU collapses…
Lenard you mention two countries in your list, Fnland and Italy.
Finland. In 1918 Lenin released Finland from its association with the Russian empire. Just like that it became an independent nation. Over the next 20 years, under the leadership of Mannerheim (that is not a Finn) he allied the Finns with Nazi Germany. This resulted in the loss of about 2/3’s of Karela which was about 10% of their total territory. Given my ancestry that was a painful loss.
Italy. Under the leadership of a fascist government they allied Italy with Nazi Germany. The result was the loss of about 120,000 Italian troops in what the Russians called operation Saturn in the winter of 1942/43 (the Italians were supposed to hold the left flank for the Nazi 6th army in their assault on Stalingrad). Needless to say the Red Army did not treat those Italian forces gently.
The lesson should be obvious. Finland and Italy are simple pawns in the minds of the big aggressive, anti-Russian western forces. May that be Nazi Germany or NATO it really doesn’t matter. Join the war against Russia and you will get seriously hurt.
I do hope that those little fool countries littering the European landscape not make the same errors and follow NATO into another big loss.
So here is the situation. The US will not risk a nuclear war with Russia/China as it will be destroyed. It needs to manufacture fear and for non-nucelar proxies to spring into action as protagonsts so as to enhance the huge US industry that manufactures and sells weapons. In this endeavour it needs to keep such foreign proxy populations in the dark and pay their leaders dollars in variouls secret bank accounts. The US cannot afford to lose the MIC profits even though such investments are a virus to the very survival of their health, education, home furniture and food supply.
Lavrov is correct … a dim future exists for certain western ambitions as the ship’s hull has sprung too many leaks and the lifeboats are in such poor shape thier hope of reaching a distand shore is negligable.
I think the major event prepared by the usual suspects ( US/UK/Mossad ) is a major global cyber attack that will shut down the economies and societies throughout the world ( a 9/11 of cyber warfare ) and blamed on Russia and China. They will try everything to isolate and slow down ( strangulate if possible ) the economies of the 2 superpowers before the real war. The rehearsals have been started for a while now . The incidents with the sitting ducks ( destroyers ) in the Black Sea are only diversions to keep the Russians busy, focused on the wrong angle of attack.
The most ridiculous is that those stupid western clowns think that Russia is afraid if them.
Nobody is afraid of them any more. Not Russians, not Chineses, not Iranians, not fat Kim from North Korea not even Venezuela or Nicaraqua.
As for Ukraine, I think that Russia should start dismantling that artificial freak.
Enough is enough. First Novorussia, then Malorussia with Kiev …and leave Galizia and so-called Western Ukraine to go to hell.
Russia will take Belarus and most of Ukraine back where they belong.
Exactly! The Ukrainians had many chances of proving they are able to form a country. The failed MISERABLY. Now is time to end this experiment.
One more thing – it is beautiful that Ukrainian freaks refuse to implement Minsk agreement.
That gives more excuse, space and opportunity to Russia in dismantling Ukraine.
Saker
I think your two dot points are the wrong way around (about poking the bear, or not). Otherwise, nothing much to argue about.
But, when you say: “Putin will come under a lot of pressure, and even outright anger, if he does not back his words with some real action. This is an election year and the Kremlin simply cannot afford being all bark and no bite” I hope that you are not advocating external military actions for internal, domestic political expediences.
Thank you for the analysis.
Yes, it does look like “calm before the storm”.
The Geneva talks did not resolve anything. The Franco-German initiative was cut in the initial stages. Macrons wishful hope for some concession was met by VVP’s “nyet” – “implement the Minsk accord and UN resolution”.
And the impasse is long-term impossible to maintain.
After the initial 5 billion dolars, suspension of democracy and enforcement of a fascistoid dictatorship, loss of 20% of its (most productive) population and conversion of the so-called Ukraine into an economic wasteland and poorest country in Europe, wasting tens of billions of dolars and euros proping an unstable construction, what should one do?
Pour in more tens of billions of dolars and euros (which are every day harder to divert) into the black hole with the majority of the remaining population being antagonistic to the whole escapade?
Deescalate, (con)federelize the construct, gradually return the democratic mechanisms, enable free trade and independence to the goverment, local authorities and economic entities and enterpreneurs?
Or, close ones eyes saying to deluded oneself “we are the invincible and strongest rulers of the world”, and shout “banzai”.
With the neocons in total control of US, UK, and EU, is it so difficult to sacrifice a ship or two, or organize an equally crazy false flag event where-ever. Prior to the total economic colapse.
Wait…Germany is NOT part of the Sea Breaze aggressions? Normally Washington’s devoted puppet regime in Berlin would gladly send some German soldiers and weapons to such things for helping bring ‘peace’. Perhaps the Bundeswehr soldiers are still busy celebrating the Führer’s birthday with their friends in Latvia…
From Germany I can assure you that especially after years of mismanagement from our then Defense Minister Ursula von der Leyen, we may be lucky when the German Navy could have two ships operational. And just one sub.
Our present Defense Minister. the genderless, charismaless and clueless Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer may spit out career-boosting slogans every now and then, but frankly said we just shrug our shoulders here. Our Bundeswehr doesn’t even have proper guns to shoot with. May the question arise whether Germany might be a danger, our cynical response would be: and with what then?
Cheers, Rob
Germany?
Germany ‘Can’t Explain’ Use of Broomsticks Instead of Guns in NATO Exercise
The German Ministry of Defence says it “can’t explain” why its soldiers reportedly used broomsticks in place of machine guns during a NATO military exercise on Tuesday.
https://www.newsweek.com/germany-cant-explain-use-broomstick-instead-guns-nato-exercise-307902
Maybe this was a clever way for German soldiers to demonstrate their disagreement with NATO’s aggressive “exercises”…?
Sorry to dissapoint you, but this was not a protest by soldiers. This is the German military after Ursula von der Leyen was Defence Minister.
At this time, 95 of the army’s 244 Leopard battle tanks are operational, zero of the German navy’s six submarines are in operation and zero of the 15 frigates are in service.
https://globalriskinsights.com/2018/03/state-germanys-military-readiness/
Just a handful of the German military’s new attack and transport helicopters reportedly were combat-ready in November 2019, prolonging a deep readiness crisis in Berlin’s armed forces.
Local media reported that just eight of the German army’s 53 Tiger attack helicopters and 12 of the service’s 99 NH-90 transports were war-ready.
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/germanys-military-dying-110696
It’s a game of the Ukrainian leadership goading on the West. Actually more complicated: Certain Russian-hating, mostly British-centric elements in the West having installed the puppet regime in Kiev to do the dirty and bloody work for the Anglo-Empire, pushing the Satrap of the day in Kiev to create a mess and push the mostly ignorant Western Satraps into a war with Russia, which Kiev doesn’t want and can’t start itself. So the Western clown show is pushing itself in circles “you go first” and with each round of that circle jerk they feel more confident (fake concensus). The dangerous thing is that at some point one of the Clowns will do somthing stupid (see Johnson sending that RN vessel). What that article does not mention is that the Ukrainan front is connected with Syria and with Turkey-Azerbaidjan-Armenia. Which means if – rather “when” – the shooting war starts the whole Russian southern flank will explode. And that is VERY dangerous, since that will force Russia to fully mobilize to simultaneously protect its western and southern front (hold the line), and at the same time have enough troops for offensive actions against Ukraine and the NATO-Turkish proxies in the south, and having the problem of a very very exposed Syria (and I am affraid Russia can protect it troops in Syria only with nuclear means, against Turkey and against the USN and RN assets in the eastern Med). And all that does not even mention the problem of Russia being totally cut off the West at that moment. There are no good solutions for Russia, and when war is inevitable it might as well be fought for real and then I do not know where the Russian troops will stop.
I’m called a Putin Puppet by a well known Australian ABC Journalist, which I’m not…….. I just admire how this man has pulled Russia out of the sewerage pit in which it was left by the failure of the Soviet Union in the Cold War and the desecration of the Yeltzin 8 years of theft and pillaging. And he has done this in spite of the US realising about 2006 he had fooled them believing he was just another Yeltzin when it was too late and they had distracted themselves with the Balkans War, 9/11, invasion of Afghanistan, Invasion of Iraq and then Libya and Syria.
He want’s Nord Stream 2 finished which will clamp Germany in place to refuse any overtures from the US, and if anyone does anything silly in or with Ukraine I have no doubt Russia will wipe out the Ukrainian Army and take a line somewhere from Kiev to Odessa and leave the Christian Fascist Western part for the Poles and the Romanians.
Which in my opinion would be the wisest thing to do and eliminate the US from the Black Sea.
The real question is what will Turkey do?
We shall soon find out which side will “blink” and which one won’t.
Well, it’s pretty clear that RF won’t blink so it’ll have to be FUKUS/Nato.
One of the main reasons the British regime sought to downplay the warning shots was that Johnson’s navy played with fire — it wasn’t ‘innocent passage’; there were reports of Ukrainian naval commandos aboard doing some training — and got its fingers burnt. Huge embarrassment and a big blink.
I reckon for the Nato criminals, losing face is a better proposition than losing ship. The normal lies followed the Defender incident and now it’s almost forgotten by the great unwashed in the West — being greatly preoccupied as it were with covid, UFOs, the US flag, men taking part in women’s sport and other woke nonsense, the Euros (football), etc. Anyway, for people with no shame or honour losing face is not a big deal.
I have always had a greatest respect for Saker’s knowledge of geopolitics. But political economy and political philosophy are a different matter – but leave that aside at present, there is another more pressing matter which needs to be dealt with.
Ref: the situation in the Black Sea. The A-Z Empire keeps pushing its luck towards some sort of endgame; but it seems obvious that situation cannot endure since the options for Russia are running out, and boil down do fight or surrender: But NATO seems to be talking itself into a trap. For how can any nation – in this instance Russia – allow its sovereignty to be treated with such contempt? We know that the A-Z bloc doesn’t do sovereignty, it does hegemony. So we are back in 1648 and the Treaty of Westphalia which put an end to the anarchy in Europe. The collective west is for the most part made up of vassal states under the hegemony of one sovereign state. The system is called ‘A rules-based world order.’ One needs to know who exactly makes the rules, and who exactly makes the order. Not difficult questions to answer. The problem for Russia is the fact that the collective west is run by imbeciles and lunatics who don’t adhere to notions of peace, sovereignty and democracy. But they have to be faced down since the alternative is unconscionable. We will wait and we will see.
En 20 dias comienzan los juegos olimpicos de Tokyo. Ojala no veamos otro evento como el 080808 Pekin o Sochi 2014. Coincido con un comentario sobre el hackeo a escala mundial. El foro de Davos esta fomentando una programacion predictiva de gran reseteo.
https://youtu.be/dUhHDUVBYhQ
Google translation,MOD:
In 20 days the Olympic games in Tokyo begin. Hopefully we will not see another event like 080808 Beijing or Sochi 2014. I agree with a comment about the hacking on a global scale. The Davos forum is promoting predictive high reset scheduling.
There’s nothing happening in the Black Sea that should concern any of us. Putin already said that it won’t start a war even if Russia sinks an American ship. And the US and Europe won’t even think about starting anything as long as the 32 NATO ships are in the Black Sea and can all be sunk so swiftly by Russia. So, no worries.
Dear Roger, that sounds about right!
You forget US new super-duper Tomahawks and further, US Military Space Command Centre with photonic laser weapons who can hit everywhere on the planet in a precision strike inside Russia and nobody can do a shit about it..
Let’s just remind ourself that NATO (US) are cowards that only attack defenceless third world nations, they’re not suicidal, they know the odds and fighting Russia in its own bathtub is plainly stupid and not an existential matter they would find the motivation and courage to do, for Russia it is, with all its might.
Unless the ridiculous English provocation still counts as such, it might come down to a face saving provocation by the Ukies, egged on by their masters, and unless no nervous pant shitting miscalculations or mishaps on part of the Eurofags and the rest of NATO occur, that’ll be it.
US can’t stand humiliation and has no appetite to risk more eggs on its face. Ukies is a always a safe expendable bet for whatever reason.
If there is any sitrep or summary possible(!!!) re Turkey Russia Syria and Astana process(a meeting due very soon?) ….would be grateful. Been a lot of action perhaps trying to accelerate closure….perhaps a revised Turkey Russian agreement re Idlib…..is Turkey still coalescing various rebel groups….poor old northeast wastelands of stolen oil and wheat….etc
I fully agree!
The Black Sea is the new Pearl Harbor, 5,000 soul’s sacrifice.
1. Provocation
2a. Light response and tit for tat, or
2b. Massive response
3. Preemptive nuclear strike, or
4.Tuck tail and run
or nothing which means the same as 4!
Lose/lose…
Another instance of our ‘rules based international order,’ in this case the ‘World Partnership for Peace’, featuring the leading Atlanticist powers plus fellow travelers and camp followers. Typically Orwellian, the ‘partnership for peace’ is in fact a gang looking to cause trouble. But I don’t think there’s that much cause for concern, though this judgment is merely speculative on my part. It looks to me like the new American govt. is remarkably following in the footsteps of the former Trump admin. When Trump tried to get out of Afghanistan the ‘deep’ state went into meltdown. Now Biden is actually doing it. Just yesterday the Bagram air field was looted; the troops are gone. And while Pakistan is a gallant ‘Partner For Peace’ they decided against providing more basing rights for the Nato occupiers. The motley assortment of ‘Partners’ is of interest as is the fact that the near incident involving a British warship was British. I think that the adults in Beltway country have decided that two front wars are too expensive and want to concentrate their forces in the Pacific. And so they need a Russia solution. Answer: Plucky Britannia. Britain will lead Europe to preserve Freedom against the shameless dictators and their Asian hordes. Accordingly, what this new-look Nato needs is not a war, for the obvious reasons clearly stated by President Putin, but rather some sort of ‘incident’ that would serve the media driven purpose of galvanising a European outrage against the dreaded Bear. No wars, thank you very much, but we need to maintain domestic discipline and a willingness to spend much more money to because the Americans are actually drawing things down. Of course they will continue to lead from behind, but what the jackals of Europe need to do is convince Europeans that the fight against Russia is their fight. So this is what operations like the Partnership For Peace is for. The plans these people are forever making are forever failing. I expect this gambit will be no different. Europe is like the States (and Israel). They are in a condition of stasis, deeply divided along numerous axial lines of opposition, and with no evident way forwards. Time is not on their side.
if your power and military reputation is largely based upon …BLUFF… the last thing you want is to compel a worthy adversary to call that BLUFF revealing to all there is no there…there! once called you go nuclear or lose everything. if you go nuclear you still lose everything only quicker!
nato and washington are in that twilight time just before they are forced to accept reality. for now they can remain deluded and try to keep their part of the world deluded as well but i dare say not for too much longer (a handful of years at most)
nato and the empire are at this point in time militarily (non nuclear speaking) all bluff, they know it russia knows, china knows it iran know.
i suspect even hezbollah and venezuela know it too.
I wonder if there are among the sake readers members of the “free world” and how they react to the dismantling of their ridiculous psychology.
I broke through the glass floor about three years ago, around Putin’s March ’18 speech, and whilst I was always aware of Western crimes etc, I didn’t bother investigating till then.
I don’t think I ever had the ridiculous psychology, maybe cause I was raised Russian – more classically I guess. I have a lot of friends who did and do have the psychology though, but even after my ‘coming out as a Nazi’ (if you deny the court history of world events that is what you get labeled as!) those three years ago to my friends, they are now just mostly muted on being dismantled. Most I think are still hoping, lambs to the slaughter really.
Saker,
To start a war with Russia takes time. I think the idea of a war started seriously in 2007. Is year of Munich speech VP. Same year or a bit before Shell and BP run into problems in Russia. So we are now 14 years into propaganda aimed towards the public of the AZ empire. First their citizen needs to be completely brainwashed. I think in 4 years they are ready. They have by than battalions of 18 years old man/woman (maybe also LTBQ+ ect) ready to die for the shinning dystopia upon a hill. They will have completed their indoctrination program LTBQ/BLM is good Russia/Putin bad. Just my two cents.
The problem with this theory is that as quickly as a portion of the Zone A population buy into the propaganda another portion of that same population are recognising the bullshit for what it is and quietly admiring the professionalism and quiet confidence of the Zone B side, and of Russia in particular. Strauss and Howe, the 4th Turning has a bit to say about this problem.
In that respect timing matters
Also Zone B is getting far more value for every cent it spends on defense investment than Zone A which has encumbered itself with a corrupt and incompetent defense industry system that guzzles cash without delivering value. The longer Zone B can keep that game going without going to war the better Zone B’s chances of winning.
In that respect timing matters.
The question is, can Zone A afford to wait 4 years till their rainbow unicorn squads are “combat ready”.
Somehow, I don’t reckon I would be taking that bet. Buckle up, things could get interesting.
1. Their rainbow unicorn squads. :D :D i like that one. :D :D
2. another portion of that same population are recognizing the bullshit for what it is. Yes, i am one of them. But i am in my 70th
3. and quietly admiring the professionalism and quiet confidence of the Zone B side. Evil people live on both sides and they could come to power in that beloved Zona B. No i am not with you on that.
4. The longer Zone B can keep that game going without going to war the better Zone B’s chances of winning. That looks like running out the clock. The problem is that Zona A knows this. But who says that zona A wants to really win. What if the goal is to get rid of a lot of useless eaters of their own population to balance the books. Or to reset their own economy. If a real good war is fought, both zona A and B will be destructed beyond repairs for a long time. And both zones will not be able to dominated each others territory after that event. I believe some people in Zona A are happy with that out come. And i think certain people in Zone B tambien.
NB: i just put in my two centavos. We have to wait and see. One thing i know a big war you can not start in a few weeks or months it takes years of planning and making the population ready. This is what i see happening now in zona A and B.
Evil runs the Zone A side. The people in control on the Zone B side are not rampaging around the world turning nations to war stricken wrecks, are they?
Rather than worrying about who might succeed them, how about dealing with what we have now.
As you correctly point out we will have to wait and see. And yes, it is difficult to understand what plot Zone A is following, other than to make as many peoples lives a misery while enriching already bloated oligarchs. However, there is quite good past behavioral indications that war will be used to address the out of balance books, and using a pandemic as cover for a herd thinning seems well within their ability for the same reason.
Still we will have to wait and see what actually happens.
De révolution en révolution ce pays continue son naufrage. Quel est l’état d’esprit aujourd’hui des citoyens, des soldats et des officiers ukrainiens ? Avec un tel discours, la direction politique actuelle à Kiev dispose-t-elle du soutien totale de sa population ?
From revolution to revolution this country continues its shipwreck. What is the state of mind of Ukrainian citizens, soldiers and officers today? With such a speech, does the current political leadership in Kiev have the full support of its people?
I agree generally, Saker is far better informed than I, and I see no reason to disagree with his view…except –
Well, I think that, since Saker is a rational and informed man, and a man with a heart, he naturally assumes that other people too are at least moderately like himself, eg not delusional, decent, civil.
In the matter to hand, however, a multitude of delusionals have the power and probably inclination to trigger a series of highly regrettable metadynamic violent events. They do not have the power to stop or interrupt such a cascade, but they can start one.
One thinks of Russian submarine B59 and hero Vasili Alexandrovich Arkhipov, who outvoted (with his vote – consensus was necessary and he prevented it) decision to fire nuke . Just how many such heroes does the imperial navy and quisling helpers have?
And in the Imperial Seat? How many?
Assume that fools and delusionals ought not to be trusted with dangerous explosives. Assume that since thay have control of such infernal stuff, they’ll make big big mistake.
Hawaii was/is stole…and Hawaiian independence has been growing since the coup…
Taiwan and the first sinking in the Black Sea, and Hawaii…Syria, Iraq, Iran – seem to be a constellation of elements, eh? Multi-body dynamics vv complex and not predictable…
……
Somebody wrote that nazi Germany began W2 with Poland. Yes, sorta, but it was England that set it up at Munich and England that declared war on Germany first – and then did nothing for about 9 months, as I recall.
……….
I find it agreeable that Saker speaks of “nazi occupied Ukraine”…as this seems to agree with the view that the imperial force is also nazi, since that force created and paid for the nazi coup… So, shall we speak of the empire as a nazi empire, as the cryptonazi base that rescued and rehabilitated the European nazis after the Reds ripped out the nazi guts in europe? Shall we note that Palestine might also be seen as “nazi occupied”?
Let’s call down the truth, the nazis lost W2, but escaped defeat…and exist today with the same goal.
Their bellicose antics invite their ruin.
“Let’s call down the truth, the nazis lost W2, but escaped defeat…and exist today with the same goal.”
An excellent summation. Some of us, living in zone A , came to this sobering realization in the 90’s. When our relatives were once again being massacred and cleansed by the sycophantic descendants of these Nazi monsters. Sycophants, who were organized, supplied and glorified by the U.S, England (our supposed WWII allies who completely betrayed us in 1943), the Vatican and modern day Germany.
Call them by any name, be it Zone A, AngloZionists, the Western empire, the fourth Reich, etc. As long as one understands that the west is ruled by pure evil. The same beast which has inflicted destruction and caused great misery to indigenous people throughout the world, for several thousands of years. The English rulers are saxons after all. Drang nach Osten lives on.
Yes, and Soviet artist saw as well> https://repository.library.brown.edu/studio/item/bdr:89387/
Zhitomirsky posters… my favorite> https://repository.library.brown.edu/studio/item/bdr:89441/
CPUSA Marxists spoke of the matter even right after the war.
The big fascist corporations and the organization Gehlen prospered – which was enough to make the matter obvious.
Dear Saker and Larchmonter (and Andrei Martyanov if you happen to be reading this),
I’ve been scratching my head over tidbits being released in Russian media about what exactly was the empire trying to gain over Crimea by sending bait from Perfidious Albion.
Sergey Ryabkov said they “tried to hijack our coast guard system and the system of control over our waters.”
US, UK tried to hijack Russia’s coast guard system, says diplomat
https://tass.com/politics/1311003
Peskov earlier said, “President [Vladimir Putin] explained that thus some weak spots are sounded out both in the system of monitoring the border integrity and the response system. This is a deliberate and well-planned provocation,” and “most importantly, as the president said, that information that the reconnaissance plane obtained is not that information that they soughed [sic] to get, but this was that information that the Russian side believed it necessary to provide.”
Kremlin says US is behind provocation with British destroyer
https://tass.com/world/1310367
Please enlighten if you understand it technically, thanks!
The Russian Federation has radars, Electronic Warfare systems and networks of communications that are shielded from the West. NATO and the US are trying to get the Russian Electronic Profile Signals captured, so they can be targeted for destruction, leaving holes in the defenses for a subsequent missile and drone swarms and then bomber attacks to destroy the entire nation of Russia.
Crimea has almost every version of the defenses and the Black Sea is also ringed with the Southern Military District defenses.
This is why the US flies UAVs and Aircraft equipped to gather the Electronic Signals, flying them along the borders almost continuously. This is what Putin referred to in his Q&A.
The US and the Israelis do the same in Syria, trying to get the Signals from the S-400 systems the Russians have there defending the Latakia AFB and the Tartus naval base.
There are tiers of Russian defenses, layered weapons that the US is desperate to penetrate.
The Russians have used some EW to shutdown the recent Dutch ship that made a move to enter the Kerch Bridge-Azov Sea zone. Three years ago the Russians shut down all electronics on the USS Ross in the Black Sea.
The Russians can shut down everything on a ship or in the planes and drones if they choose to do so. Radars, Communications, electronic counter measures go dark, blank, nulled.
The only weapon the US has to create comparable effects against the Russians is EMP (Electromagnetic pulse) and they would have to use neutron bombs to achieve it. Thus, it is the end of the world scenario because the Russians have Perimeter, dead man’s activation system of all the strategic nuclear missiles. It works regardless of EMP or direct nuclear attack.
So, in small form, the Black Sea is a deadly game of hunt and peck. The Russians will just hit the next intruder without even consideration of using EW.
Yes, That’s about what my views are.
I would repeat a story.
Long time ago chatting on a dark 4th of July fire-works display, in a very lush park situated in a very wealthy rente / comprador place/neighborhood not far from Cal Tech in Pasadena…perhaps 1977.
“EMP (special nuke) detonated at (altitude 50 miles was spoken of) at antipode locus will of course waste electronic in locus, but also waste electronic at antipode. I believe we spoke of “doping” the upper atmosphere to improve effectiveness, eg prior sounding rockets distributing stuff like maybe iodine or whatever…to be determined? or probably already known.
Not that I expect such, but it seems to have been researched – the tactic of doing “it” to oneself, and also the guy on the other side of earth, the antipodal state.
See globe for ideas.
Best 2 U old man. P
if memory serves Mr P, Dr Tesla says only ELFs can pass through the earth, the band is so narrow, only several main government militaries use it to communicate, but must take turns due to narrow band width (can’t be hacked or evesdroped on). Tesla was experimenting with ELFs around the time of the Tungusta ‘event’ and actually was permitted to visit the site. UFOs they say…….I’m sure Tesla smiled up his sleave (if one is experimenting, it’s nice to go check on the results), UFOs indeed……:)
Cheers, M
I understood the physicist from Cal Tech to describe the phenomenon to create an isotropic burst of broad spectrum electromagnetic energy (in part)…This energy (some of it) then is ducted through along the E layer (mostly). As energy travels to position 90 degrees the energy density decreases as the area increases, and then concentrates again as the energy front approaches the position 180 degrees. Since the earth core is iron any energy that reaches the core is damped…the through earth transmission does not take place. EMF propagates along duct formed between earth and e layer… more or less. I can push electrons a bit, but I am not a physicist. I’d suppose the attenuation, scattering, losses of several sorts, would waste maybe 1/2 of the emp…but the effect would be heavy at antipode. If, for example, “somebody” set one off in the south atlantic as it is said that SA and IS did (but those “secret” tests were near ground and tiny, near trivial) as they did, then for quiz friday find antipodean locus. Is fun game to consider tactics and loci. He discussed first “doping” the e layer with iodine inserted by sounding rockets – thus implying the ability to create some directional aspect of energy might exist.
Do not over-rate Tesla. In his youth he was brilliant, yes, but later he lost his mind…I have read some of the court transcripts, poor fella.
This fella probably catalyzed far more significant Changes> “Charles Proteus Steinmetz (born Karl August Rudolph Steinmetz, April 9, 1865 – October 26, 1923) was a German-born American mathematician and electrical engineer and professor at Union College.He fostered the development of alternating current that made possible the expansion of the electric power industry in the United States, formulating mathematical theories for engineers.” – but it’s not very interesting at this distance. Prior to Steinmetz and his Westinghouse patron $ for research into specialty steels and insulators power transmission efficiency was totally lossy. All sorts of mickeymouse methods were used – push/pull rods – mile long leather belts – compressed air in pipes – totally lossy and ‘spensive. Modern transformers are one of the machines that have very low losses. Prime movers however tend to waste about 1/2, on a good day, sometimes nearly 100 % waste…which matters a lot if one is paying for fuel, or trying to make a buck. Hertz and Heavyside are probably the founders, imho.
see test ban organization abt Starfish Prime https://www.ctbto.org/specials/testing-times/9-july-1962starfish-prime-outer-space (I knew a guy who was involved in a minor way with the launch from Johnston, it was a terrifying experiment)
Of course it’s best to assume the simple reliable atomic saboteur with Boris Badenov suitcase or goof gas is “pre-positioned” . On the occasion of Able Archer rodeo, I have read claim, Soviet sapper team brought such suitcase to Andrews AFB – and was called off w/o imperial knowledge, so it was said.
Since then I have heard somewhat similar story about Saddam and a SAS sniper team from one of the team…thus inclining me to credit Andrews story as “maybe so”.
Thank you Larchmonter (and MrP and Sean too) for you reply. I think I understand now why RF didn’t use EW against the Defender on that day as she did with USS Ross before and with the Dutch ship later, but swarmed it with bomber jets instead.
Yes, indeed. What is called “provocation” is also more or less “combat reconnaissance”…
The idea is to induce the opponent to expose his abilities…
Sun Tsu (or was it Mao?) Hullabaloo in East, attack in west…and all war is based on deception.
And “Mr Ivan”? He is a not stupid.
https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/library/policy/army/fm/3-90/ch13.htm (details of such matters)
I myself have nagging intuition that “cyber polygon” and the affray in Black Sea etc may be coordinated. Just nagging thoughts…
There was a story, long time ago, where an old valve-based Russian radar from wwii could see one of the Pentagon’s fancy new ‘stealth’ planes … using the UHF band. The thinking was that radar didn’t use that band, mostly used for TV and mobile phone service. The Pentagon had egg on its face.
Heard that story back in the ’80s. Now, everyone has a pocket radio that can hit a tower 20 miles away with a signal so low it’s hard to find among thermal noise on a spectrum analyzer. And you can get a tiny SDR to plug into your laptop that allows anyone to piddle around with digital radio. We have seen videos of car thieves ‘pinging’ the owner’s key fob from outside his apartment and driving away after a minute of work.. Such is the nature of publicly released military radio technology.
I can only imagine how far military radio has advanced since the ’80s. And Russia’s reputation for stealth and ECW remains at the head of the class…
I’m pretty sure the guys in that P8 are saying “come on, just turn it on for 2 or 3 seconds!” as they circle, carefully avoiding that invisible red line in the Black.
Spark gap triggered analogue 20 meter (more or less) and up into centimeter radar is or was considered to be unjammable… One can’t accurately predict the time of next pulse…so an old ham and ships electronics officer “RO” has said to me…back in Vietnam days.
I think the Yugoslavians got a kill too. It’s said that the wreckage was in the Chinese Embassy – the one that was regrettably and by pure coincidence blown to rubble by “somebody”.
“Stealth” is not magic, it’s physics…and the engineers have to make assumptions about the opponent radar. Modern nazi assumed it was not HF or VHF but far higher band…centimeter or higher. Make airplanes accordingly.
UK W2 AD Radar was “Chain Home” – ran at 20 meters. Could vector aircraft to V2 launch site in a few minutes, as I recall reading. (the invention of polyethylene permitted boats and aircraft to have radar of good resolution, due to polyethylene dielectric @ VHF in coaxial cable, lossy but workable feedlines) Germans salvaged polyethylene from wrecks, as they did not make any, so I have read. Magnitron invention big big secret…
Modern OTH also uses fairly low frequencies, because that’s what yagotta use.
Agree, the fine fellas in the P8 (and they are) are praying for a mistake.
Even when Seabreeze ends in a few days, there is another US sponsored drill scheduled in the Western part of Ukraine together with Poland and Lithuania, called the “3 swords”… (17 -30 July).
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-hold-land-military-drills-with-us-poland-lithuania-2021-07-05/
Not right on Russia’s borders but maybe intended to worry Belarus…?
I wonder if all these in-your-face exercises are payback for preventing the colour revolution in Minsk.
Belarus is right in the middle of the land strip they call “Intermarium”. Without Belarus, Intermarium has only a narrow corridor of approx 100 km between Poland and Lithuania, as Kaliningrad is on the other side (Intermarium = between seas of the Baltic- Adriatic- Black)
Please note that Germany is not taking part in Sea Breeze 21. Also there are many participants but less ships of a serious size than participants. I wonder how all these governments could be persuaded to be part of this silly provocation. And I wonder which responsible captains could be persuaded to cross Russia’s red lines. On many vessels there would be mutiny at hand.
In my view the NATO gang does not know how to deal with Russia in a way that they achieve just a tiny success. But they just cannot stop fearing the loss of face.
§§§… I wonder how all these governments could be persuaded to be part of this silly provocation …§§§
In the case of Tabaquis Australia …… I expect our govt begged and pleaded and whined to be allowed to play war “games” alongside the big boys.
Official White House +
US/NATO/EU officials +
Ukronazis +
MSM
===================•=•
Stimmen aus dem Sumpf
In this highly esteemed company, it might in fact be the Ukronazis that pass for the intellectuals, LOL.
NATO has 3-4 countries with any military of note – Germany is not one of them. The sabre-rattlers like Baltics and Poland are consumers rather than producers of security assets. They are sh*t stirrers.
USA is a posturing bully throwing its weight around but terrified of being exposed as ineffectual. It is a thin line between military swagger and empty rhetoric being exposed, or technical capacity laid bare.
China has so much US IP and huge capacity in microelectronics together with engineers trained in US that it poses a huge threat to US “flashing lights technology”. Russia has aviation and jet-engine technology way ahead of China. Together, the US looks very naked with has-beens like France and UK alongside and Wanna-be like Turkey.
Americans have not had a foreign army fight on their soil since 1812 when Britain burned the Capitol and White House. No foreign army will do so now, but devastation – Americans have no idea if Club-K containers are inside USA already.
It takes miscalculation to set the fuse – and Johnson did just that.
Since Russia resumed work on NS2, there was a diplomatic flurry of various US envoys to Germany. They threatend, they bribed, they begged Germans to abandon NS2 to no avail.
West organized major military provocation in April. Failed miserably.
After all those fumbles the spell is broken. Vassals and slaves are not afraid anymore. It is only a matter of time when NATO ranks will start to wither.
Recently, Germans are nowhere to be seen, and now South Corea suddenly have something important to do…elsewhere.
Two most horrifying words for Anglo elite:
DOMINO EFFECT
To repair the loss of authority, Biden rushed to Putin just to set up the stage for Hollywood fable where he ALLOWED Russia to finish pipeline. I doubt he had anything to offer in return.
No doubt, though, that Putin saw through bluff. The Emperor is naked.
That could be the reason for refreshingly blunt tone in recent statements.
“Sea Breeze” and similar manouvers are military analogues of corporate “team bonding” vacations. Useless but fun.
Like hunting imaginary bear, praying not to stumble on real one.
Bottom line: NATO is not organizing exercises for war, it tries to prevent its own disolution.
My impression speaking from Brazil is that the US will not lose much face with Latin America if nothing happens, so there wouldn’t be much at stake if they back off. We hardly hear anything about the Sea Breeze exercise here. I only learned of Brazil being participant from here. I wouldn’t be surprised if this participation were only a few men on board one of the NATO ships (our government is losing popularity fast and may very well have agreed in order to try to make the US happy and willing to give it support).
Although I agree this exercise is an act of provocation, my impression is that it is mostly to show some support to Ukraine (after it having been let down in april, and apparently ignored before, during and after the Putin-Biden summit), to try to show the US is still relevant in EU, and possibly to gather military information on how Russia reacts. Apart from that, nothing much more. Ukraine’s statements seems to be more of a desperate act to get noticed.
The CIA director came to Brazil last week to talk to some of the government officials. Nothing official was said on what they discussed, but the rumors were that the only subject outside Latin America was about China. Here we see more news on the confrontation in the South China sea than on EU/Russia area.
I think Russia is acting in a very balanced and sensible way. It has shown it is talking serious about its defense of the homeland, but it is also respecting the countries which respect it. It is a superb example of the saying “speak softly and carry a big stick”. Hopefully, most nations understand this (and I think they do). I also think the partnership Russia-China benefits everyone (except US/UK, and a few other countries), and that most countries know they stand to benefit more if no aggression to Russia occurs.
Oh, and I think the Putin-Biden summit were favorable to Russia, showing once more that Russia does not want confrontation, but that it won’t back off if others get into confrontation with them.
Now, Ukraine may not agree with any of this, but I think they are very limited in their options. I don’t think they will be able to drag anyone to a war right now. It may be that in the future there is a local conflict, but I think Russia can manage this quite well.
Be safe. Peace to all.
https://sputniknews.com/world/202107061083320654-raab-uk-ships-to-continue-to-sail-waters-near-crimea-after-hms-defender-incident/
Welcome to the show my friends the show that never ends…….
Lol. This is the same Dominic Raab who couldn’t distance himself fast enough as soon as the British ship “Defender” got into trouble with Russia.
https://nation.com.pk/25-Jun-2021/raab-raised-concerns-about-destroyer-approaching-russia-s-crimea-but-bojo-made-final-call
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/boris-johnson-royal-navy-will-keep-sailing-off-crimea-despite-russian-threat-k8l2q96rx
I think what Putin has said here is: “Are you feeling lucky, punks” to NATO, US et al.
So far the response has been a bunch of laughable hot air and BS from Ukraine et al…. afraid to take the bait.
Its that simple. We are in some kind of bizarre real life movie with the script written by idiots from the West with Russia the only one living in reality.
The suspense is killing me. Clint Eastwood, are you ready for your close-up?
I cannot wait for Putin to say “make my day” to these punks. :)
machine translate> Сделай лучший снимок. (take your best shot)
Сделай мой день, панк. (again, machine) Make my day, Punk
On one of two occasions I have said as much, and always with a smile.
My favorite, though, is “If you heard the shot you were not the target” «Если вы услышали выстрел, вы не были целью»
(hope the translations are fair)
“Russia: Just try.” I liked that
There are i think a few significant issues to watch in this strange coalition.
1. Japan and Australia are in- both members of the “quad” but SK and India are not
2. China is not mentioned but is the elephant in the room
3. Israel is in which is relatively unusual for these NATO exercises – suggests perhaps that connections with Russia are increasingly strained/severed.
The unhinged Hindutvas would love to tie their colours to Israel/US’s mast but I think the Indian MIC think otherwise seeing that 60-70% of Indian military equipment is Russian, and there is ongoing cooperation in fighter aircraft manufacture, lease of nuclear submarines, the S400 deal, etc. Best not to poke the Bear.
Israel has played, is playing, and will play both sides in any conflict. No surprise their being in Sea Breeze — they probably invited themselves via their slaves in ZOG.
This exercise isn’t about China; it’s about Russia and the US effort to have a division of labour with Nato regarding confrontation with RF (led by the Johnson regime) and China (US). The others are just window dressing. China in all likelihood wasn’t invited — inviting the PRC would throw a big spanner in the ‘evil China’ narrative wouldn’t it? — unlike RIMPAC where it participated until one or two editions ago if memory serves me right. Also, China has issues with the Ukraine. The US could have invited Taiwan — just to take a dig at PRC — but that would be too much for the others who have no problems with their One China policy.
this warning is very clear…in just few words
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/russia-says-us-engineered-junes-black-sea-provocation-will-sink-any-threat-next-time
I always thought the commemorative patches (pictured above) they issued in conjunction with these operations were the best part of the whole fandango. I know the USAF pilots saved and traded those things like they were money, with the squadron bar’s walls liberally festooned with them from past exploits. Say what you will about militaries worldwide, but they do have a grand sense of heroic mythology.
Barring a stupid misstep by one or both sides, I think SeaBreeze ’21 will likely come to naught. A lot of bluster and chest thumping by both sides, because that’s just what they do, but nothing of substance once again. If I was a little more cynical than I am already (and rest assured, I’m pretty damn cynical!), I might be inclined to think that this whole thing is just so much geo-political theater on both sides part, but for now I still believe that this is just another misstep among many for the western, former hegemonic empire. But my mind is definitely open to the possibilities.
When I listened to the interview of mr. Putin I was frankly worried. Of course no sane western leader would start a full blown conflict knowing that they could not win. I understand that trends analysis are made in the assumption that the other side will be reazonable and take well thought actions. The problem here is that history is full of examples of lunacy (people blinded to reality by ideology) or simple idiocy (gross miscalculations) starting fires they could not control. Think of all the failed policies that turned a relatively minor incident in Sarajevo into the Great War in 1914. Or the conviction of self deluded nazis that another move (now against Poland) would not nesessarily mean an anglo-french intervention in september 1939. Quite frankly, the situation is worrying to say the least.
Next time V. Putin meets leaders from NATO, do a sulfur smell test. The test for evil.
We hear little of life inside Donbass.But several of my FB friends live there and sometimes post about events there.The English translations are rough but understandable:
July 5, 2014 The militia left Slavyansk, and on July 6 we entered Donetsk. I already wrote about it, but I will repeat it. For us, this date is unforgettable forever – as if we were born a second time. We don’t regret anything, although in Ukraine we had to lose a lot, and then everything hung in the balance and death walked nearby.
If Ukrainian troops entered Donetsk, then they would arrest or destroy Russian patriots, eradicate canonical orthodoxy, impose sodomization and drugization, as it happened to other parts of Novorossiya, except Crimea. After the flag of Ukraine in the same Kharkov, the banner with cannabis and with a rainbow were delayed. As in unhappy Odessa after burning people. Whatever the flaws of the Russian Federation are, but there is no such thing here, and there is no in the LDNR.
We really didn’t want to leave Slaviansk, but the order is an order, and we evaluated its correctness later. The militia strengthened the defense of Donetsk and destroyed the two-power there. Prokiev mayor of Donetsk Lukyanchenko, after assessing the situation, stupidly escaped to Kiev. In this regard, interesting evidence of our enemy Said Ismagilov – the pro-Western religious politician of the pseudo Islamist, the grantor of the US State Department, who, before the arrival of the Slavic Brigade, together with other national liberal sectors, conducted ′′ prayer marathons ′′ for unity of Ukraine and Donbass in the center of the rebellious Donetsk (and them no one prevented! ). In his interview, he then acknowledged: “… July is called the day of the Liberation of Slavyansk and other cities in the north of Donetsk. But Donetsk residents remember this date as the day of Donetsk’s final change. Before that, there was no feeling like this. After all, our troops had beaten Shakhtarsk and took Donetsk to the ring by then. It seemed that the liberation of the city was near. But with the arrival of the half-cleaners of Girkin, it became clear that the road to Donetsk was not closed…
… Our prayer marathon was the last refuge of patriots – people of different faith who gathered daily to pray for Ukraine’s unity.
… I and a group of priests of other confessions went to the then mayor of Donetsk Alexander Lukyanchenko to seek intercession from him… But that day, the gangs of Russian espesbeshnik Girkin and in the building of the city executive committee ′′ duty ′′ Stronghold “. The lawful mayor already came to Donetsk. I didn’t decide anything… I miraculously avoided arrest, and they just didn’t recognize me at the exit of the city “.
It is demonstrative that pro-Ukrainian politicians of religious and secular use, who managed to calmly sit in Donetsk until the very arrival of the Slavic Brigade, do not consider Kiev the entrance of Ukrainian troops to Slavyansk at all. They fairly consider this event the day of the loss of Donetsk to Ukraine.
And if you are talking about global aspects, then in a purely human terms after the siege, deprived of light and water of Slavyansk with its constantly hovering deadly threat, we were experiencing cultural shock in the peaceful and rich Donetsk, like some Indians who came from the jungle to the village of old people. I’m a little wipe, of course, but in general, our feelings were just like that.
We’ve experienced a shock, again getting used to the benefits of a civilization like soul, mobile communication and coffee machines. Donetsk residents – well done, they met us very well, the whole city gathered at a huge rally then. Women gave us flowers and owls of food.
Naturally, peaceful life was short, soon the onset of the Armed Forces of Ukraine began, and the shelling of Ukrainian artillery even the center of Donetsk, not to mention its outskirts.
There was a huge number of hopes, it seemed that life was starting over. Not everything planned has come true, but it could have been much worse.
Most militias have long been demobilized, live and work in the LDPR, or in Russia. But, alas, not everything. Due to the ′′ charms ′′ of our legislation, some have not yet received citizenship, alas. But most still settled and working calmly. I have since had two more babies in Russia, so thank God for everything!
Re: the July 10th deadline mentioned in the above article. Perhaps worth considering is the launch of the WEF’s Operation Cyber Polygon scheduled for the 9th. A modelling exercise to simulate a global cyber attack on networks and infrastructure systems.
Dear Saker,
I fear that in the remaining days of their Sea Breeze wargames, the empire will once again play ‘who blinks first’. I’m checking the news every hour.
If the Defender will repeat this again in tandem with a USAF sigint plane above, I believe RF is covered by international law to sink both the ship and down the plane.
—–
UK ships to continue passing through ‘Ukrainian waters,’ Foreign Secretary says
https://tass.com/defense/1311209
They won’t sink the Offender. They simply will disable it and tow it to Sebastopol, so that the crew could enjoy a peaceful ‘conquest’ of the city.
No need for anything hasty or reactive. Time is on Russia’s side. A provocation only works if it provokes a reaction.
Well…recently Ukrops complained of losses whereas their drivers seem to stray off roads and hit mine fields….Ukraine tried to get a vote through at OSCE parliament assembly blaming Russia for everything as usual….Russian rep walked out because it must be a vote by all parliamentarians……but has returned.
That OSCE is getting to be more troublesome perhaps…eg Secretary General did not even know Ukr had shut down 3 tv channels….Ukr getting more desparate?
Meanwhile
“Alfred Heer (Switzerland, ALDE) and Birgir Thórarinsson, (Iceland, EPP/CD), PACE co-rapporteurs for the monitoring of Ukraine are currently making a fact-finding visit to to this country to further assess the honouring of its obligations and commitments to the Council of Europe. They have already met Chairpersons and members of various parliamentary committees, the Ukrainian delegation to PACE, the Prosecutor General, as well as representatives of civil society and the diplomatic community. Meetings are also scheduled today with the Minister for Communities and Territorial Development, the deputy Head of the Presidential administration, the Ombudsperson, and representatives of different anti-corruption bodies.”
Update
MOSCOW, July 8. /TASS/. The Russian delegation’s participation in the activities of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE PA) may be reconsidered after the fall’s parliamentary election, Chairman of the State Duma (the lower house of parliament) Foreign Affairs Committee Leonid Slutsky wrote on Telegram on Thursday. “A decision on maintaining the Russian delegation’s presence on that platform or suspending it should be made in coordination with the country’s leadership. I think that we will go back to the issue after the State Duma election,” he pointed out. The senior lawmaker explained that “the payment of contributions to the OSCE PA is approved by the State Duma Council”. “The Foreign Affairs Committee comes up with proposals based on the Russian government’s order. A decision has already been made to pay this year’s contributions. In the future, we will see how the situation unfolds, and what position the cabinet takes,” Slutsky added. On Tuesday, the Russian delegation refused to take part in the current OSCE PA session due to the violation of regulations in a vote on an anti-Russian resolution proposed by Ukrainian lawmakers.
NATO will probably blink. Nobody will notice. The public don’t think of this stuff as relating to real life. No American expects US saber-rattling to have anything to do with actual events, it’s just the pugnacious stuff they expect politicians to say. And then they move on to the next news cycle.
Do not look at what they say – look at what they do.
On July 1, the land market opened. In reading over the rules and regulations, it is virtually impossible for the common man to understand all aspects of the rules. Swiss cheese would be an apt description. This requires monthly study and updates as far as how its managed and outcomes.
Simultaneously, municipal tax rates were increased with very substantial changes to the taxes levied on the sale of secondary or third properties – they do not tax the net profit, but the value of the gross sale. Land or property in arrears can and will be confiscated by the local authority – you can see where this is leading.
Banking changes will move towards digitization of accounts in the name of snuffing out corruption. However, any utility or governing body that has any type of arrears or payments owing to it, can apply to the debtor’s bank and have the amount automatically garnisheed.
As of July 1, an army of inspectors were sent out to spot check various enterprises to determine compliance with declared number of employees and cash payments. Of 153 inspections, there were 254 citings of under the table activity or cash payments. The Saker community is astute enough to understand what is being done.
Ukraine is being used as a lab rat to test the possibility of digitization of banking while at the same time, sucking more money out of the weakest sector of the population. Considering there are approximately 11 million seniors on pension and about 2-3 million minimum under the poverty line(especially children), this will lead to a culling of the population as those that can, have already left for greener pastures.
There have been no IMF tranches to speak of and diminished transit fees from Gazprom for gas transit – so where’s the money coming from ? Ex pat transfers continue monthly, but for day to day operations, bankrupt entities like Ukraine Railways(check their Supervisory Board – all foreign leeches like our friend Anders Aslund), are magically floating Eurobond issues of 300 million or so, underwritten by none other than JP Morgan. Their credit rating which was basically trash as per S& P and/or Moody’s is suddenly rerated overnight to responsible.
The wholesale personnel shuffles at the National Bank of Ukraine have seen the head(Yacov Smolij) removed last year with his replacement being a figure with an arm’s length relationship with Kolomoisky. The NBU has borrowed a chapter from the Federal Reserve and issues credits(out of thin air) to the selected banks at approximately 6.5 to 7.5 %(depends on the level set that week or month) and with its weekly auctions of “Treasury” paper it sells about 500 million USD at 1, 2,3, & 5 year rates ranging from 10.99 % to 12.5 %
Its a circle jerk folks and the game continues until the music stops.