I really like the Asia Times, but the article I saw in it today left me wondering how it could have gotten past the editors. The article in question is Ukraine: A military-industrial complex to die for by Gregory J Moore. While I most definitely encourage you to read the article in its entirety, its thesis is simple: the Ukrainian military-industrial complex is, if not vital, then at least crucial for Russia. Moore gives several examples which I want to quote here:
1) Antonov is not a Russian aircraft manufacturer, its Ukrainian
2) The Ukraine builds many aircraft and helicopter engines
3) The Ukraine builds missiles, rockets and the SS18
4) The Ukraine accounts for 30% of the USSR’s shipbuilding industry
5) The Ukraine builds APCs and tanks including the T-84
6) The Ukraine builds air-to-air, surface-to-air and cruise missiles
And all this is true. So what is the problem here?
The problem is that all the examples Moore gives are Soviet-era systems. Even the T-84 is nothing but an upgraded T-80. The Ukraine, just like Russia, has inherited a lot of top-quality Soviet technologies. These technologies were, in fact, so good, that both the Ukraine and Russia could literally “coast” for almost 20 years on that technological basis without really developing any truly new systems. A good example of that is the SS-18 missile which is still one of the most powerful ones on the planet. But it’s design is really late 1950s early 1960s technology and it runs on liquid fuel. And yet the Russian Ministry of Defense recently wanted to purchase more of these missile. Why? Money: the Ukrainians were willing to sell them cheap. Now the deal appears dead, much to the delight of the Russian military which did not want that missile to begin with, but which had been told that it was the cheaper solution to a more expensive but also more modern purely Russian alternative.
And here is the key issue here: Russia does not need the Ukrainian MIC, Russia could produce all it needs indigenously, but that would be more expensive. So why spend more when you can spend less and use the difference in developing other sectors?
When the Soviet Union broke apart Russia lost not only the Ukraine but another 13 republics many of which had Soviet MIC resources and many have wondered whether Russia could go by without them. The test of that proposition is simple: can Russia produce completely new weapon systems or not? And the clear answer is yes – Russia can and Russia has.
Take, for example, the new Russian submarines (Borei-class or Yasen-class), new combat aircraft (Su-34 of PAKFA), new tanks (Armata), new ICBMs (SS-27) or SLBMs (SS-N-32). Now, of course, since the weapons-design cycle is very long, all these systems have their origins in Soviet designs, and some might even have part purchased from the Ukraine (or other ex-Soviet states). But the fact that Russia assembled, tested and deployed these systems proves that Russia has the technological know-how to control all the technologies used in them. This is especially true of very complex systems like submarines or advanced combat aircraft. For the general military, the goal is to have the Russian armed forces equipped with new military systems for 70% of all its equipment by 2020. That is ambitious but doable.
At least two top Russian weapons experts (Dmitri Rogozin and Igor Korotchenko) have addressed the issue of the importance of the Ukrainian MIC and, on one occasion, even Putin himself. All three were categorical: a possible “loss” of the Ukrainian MIC for Russia is not a problem for Russia at all, but the perfect opportunity to allocate the funds needed to develop indigenous and much more modern capabilities in Russia. This is exactly the same situation as with the western credit card companies: the US sanctions provided Russia with a much needed pretext and opportunity to develop a Russian credit card system which, as it has been announced in Shanghai, will be compatible with the Chinese one.
Speaking of China: China is the *perfect* partner for Russia in nearly all economic terms, especially in the military-industrial cooperation. And, unlike the Ukrainian technologies, the Chinese technologies are far more modern, if probably more expensive.
Putin and Medvedev have already set as a strategic goal for Russia to become fully independent from foreign suppliers for all its strategic needs. Dumping the Ukrainian MIC is just a logical step towards this goal. It is an opportunity for Russia, not a problem.
Moore concludes by saying that “The value and importance of Ukraine’s military industrial complex to Russia is an important reason Moscow will not let go of eastern and southern Ukraine, and consequently it may be that sanctions alone will not be enough to make Putin back down.” I completely disagree. Not only does Russia not “want” the Ukraine or even the Donbass, it is going out of its way to avoid having to “own” it (following a hypothetical intervention). The very last thing Russia needs is to have to support a huge population working on 20-year old technologies which nobody wants and which Russia does not really need. By the way, and for the very same reasons, neither does the EU or US need to Ukrainain MIC: they have their own which is much more modern and which they control.
I will say it again and again and again. Russia does not need the Ukraine, not its lands, not its MIC, not its coal and not its people. What was true in 1991 is not true any more in 2014. Furthermore, the Ukrainian oligarchs have truly destroyed the whole country and laid waste to its MIC: did you know that the top 50 Ukrainian oligarchs own 50% of the Ukraine’s GDP? It is mind boggling, really. Or why do you think that the Ukrainians are still using (old) Mi-24s used in Africa by the UN instead of their own helicopters? Because that is all that they have left, literally! Recently, when the Russians took control of Crimea they found out that even the most prestigious youth camp (Artek) was in a state of total abandonment. The oligarchs neglected even that jewel.
For years Russia had tried to make some kind of deal with the Ukrainians to develop a very interesting advanced transport aircraft: the AN-70. But the Ukrainian politicians were making such ridiculous demands that the Russians eventually walked away in disgust (they ended up making a deep upgrade the IL-76 and they are now developing a wide-body long range transport aircraft with China which will probably have civilian and military variants). So even if Yanukovich was still in power, how could Russia trust such completely unreliable partners?
The sad reality is that the Russians cannot trust the Ukrainians with anything. Not even paying their bills, nevermind participating in strategic military-industrial projects. For that Russia now has China. Let the EU “enjoy” its new found partnership with the Ukraine. Good luck to them!
The Saker
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Much as I would like to see logic and planning behind the Kremlin’s approach to the Ukraine, doubts creep in. The current coup and uprising didn’t require a genius to foresee. Putin led the Easterners to believe that they would be getting some support, and they’ve gotten almost nothing.
Russia may not “need” the Ukraine for anything, but the loss will hurt. Did Russia really start preparing to not use the Ukraine a few years ago? Kind of wonder, because they probably just wanted to keep the prices down by having a second supplier.
It might be easier to ally with India for MIC stuff. Actually, you should do some posts on what countries Russia should try to do what with.
Paul
@Perception is as important as intention
Many years ago (nearly two decades) I was discussing the fate of Russia with friends in Romania (I was already looking at things from an atipodean perspective). I was saying that despite the fact that Russia is a European country and finally her place would be in Europe, she does not seem to be too eager to join Europe, because she does not really need her. They were apoplectic with laughters. Ha,ha Russia needs Europe, she cannot survive without European investment, know-how, superior et caeteras. They were quick to point out that whatever industry Russia had was “stolen” from the Germans after the war.
I did invoke the gas and oil. But, what if Europe stops bying it? Russia would instantly collapse! I replyed that Europe would collapse economically if Russia turns her back to Europe and reorient herself to Asia. That angered them very much. China? They eat a bowl of rice, that’s China, if you want to know.
On another hand, Ukraine might become the headache of Europe. Europe will not jump to bail her out. And it will not open her gates to the “Ukrainian plumbers, cleaners and carers for the elderly”. Opportunely, Webster Tarpley reminded us how Ukraine brought down the Central Powers at the moment when they seemed to have reached the peak of their power.
Observer said….
While the majority of what you wrote is may be factually correct….
With all due respect, the same can be said for you post as well.
It all comes back again to a couple of simple questions:
Why should Russia have to do the fighting in Novorossia when hundreds of thousands of able bodied males of Novorossia won’t??? Why do they continue to hide behind their babushka’s skirts when Nazi’s are terrorizing Novorossia?
A huge thank you Saker!
When did I say anything different? I never made any reference to Russia directly intervening inEastern Ykraine.
I think you are confused.
Reposting:
I think I’m going to give up on commenting after this one: once again it seems you are portraying reality as you would like it to be instead what it might actually be. While the majority of what you wrote is factually correct (regarding some of the weapon systems), being forced to suddenly build up an additional 20% of the capital infrastructure and tooling required for new factories as a result of disruptions in the Ukrainian end of the supply chain is not a good thing! That is an attempt to put lipstick on a pig, it is self deluding spin.
What would be good for Russia would be to have committed this transition at a sane well planned pace, not being forced into it in a crisis. Russian officials have admitted that this is going to cost them at least 2 years of schedule delays (i.e. in reality 3-4 yrs delay) on their already late defense projects. Secondly, it is and will be advantageous for Russia to have a second source for components from Ukraine because it helps keeps costs and schedules in line compared to sole source bids where the armed forces are at the mercy of whatever monopoly Russia only enterprise they are forced to rely on. And it frees up Russian capacity work on new systems while off loading the manufacter of older systems & spares onto existant Ukrainian factories. Thirdly, losing those industries harms Russia’s natural allies in Ukraine, playing right into the EU’s hands. Alienating and disconnecting further the people of Ukraine from Russia’s economic & geopolitical orbit.
Finally your contention that China could be even considered as a part of the Russian military supply chain is absurd on it’s face and ignores terrible realities that Putin himself stated just 2 weeks ago.
1)China, an openly expansionist power, has long term ambitions on Russia’s far East, a part of the world they consider their backyard. They have some justifiable historical precedents to hold this view.
2)China has not, does not & will not respect intellectual property obligations: the have and will clone Russian military technology without paying one penny in licensing fees. A great example is they way they reverse engineered early Su-27 designs and planes they bought and then mass produced. Unlike the Indians who pay a licensing fee for every Su-30 they build domestically, the Chinese brazenly ignore their legal obligations to Russia and keep popping out Su-27 clones out of their domestic factories without authorization or paying a penny in compensation. Plus China does not contribute any technology back to Russia unlike the Indians who have improved Russian avionics, systems integration, design, etc.
3) The Russian military is livid at the prospect of sharing any further strategic systems with China for the same reasons raised in point #2; contrast that with Russia having no problem co-developing the 5th generation PAK-FA with the Indians also offering the same deal to the Brazilians but not to the Chinese.
4) The gas deal to supply China from Russian, while important, will only account for 20% of China’s current domestic demand, 70% of which will be met by domestic Chinese gas sources; the US state of New York consumes more gas than this deal represents. China intends to expand their domestic production of shale oil and gas as much as possible while reducing/minimizing imports no matter how much cheaper the imports are.
5) China & Russia strategic interests have a strong potential for conflict in the long run:
a) Chinese ambitions in Russia’s far east
b) Russia’s strategic goal to ‘re-industrialize’ on a grand scale to diversify their economy away from being energy export centric; the bulk of this to be in the areas of consumer goods and electronics – meaning trade barriers to the very products China’s globalist owned/contracted factories dump onto the world market. -stated by Putin at SPIEF.
c) The Chinese penchant to run trade surpluses vs Putin’s strategic goal to reduce imports and produce goods domestically.
My comment was lost, but someone quoted it above, so I’ll repost the salient points:
1) http://www.nytimes.com/2006/12/28/nyregion/28veto.html
Putin does not want to end up like this. Perceived as not caring about Eastern Ukraine even if he does still consider it significant.
2) The possibility of Eastern Ukrainians nursing resentment against Russia even if they do gain independence, leading to serious headaches down the road, creating needless strife and friction in Russian society.
3) Potential for Putin’s actions to be seen as a green light to further pressure Russian minorities in the Near Abroad.
4) The majority of the Ukraine must eventually be absorbed by Russia in order to secure its position in the Eurasian landmass. It is not merely an issue about factories, farmland, coal mines, or warm bodies. This is a psychological and spiritual test of the Russian nation’s direction.
5) Russia need to maintain perspective: it is a European nation with vast Asian territories. Pivoting too much to China could bite it in the rear if the PRC does not turn out to be as stable as it appears, or the European states not as beholden to the US as it seems presently.
Yes, it looks like Russia doesn’t need Ukraine for much, but still, it needs to have the pipelines going through it to function properly to deliver gas to Europe. Or is there another route I’m missing?
After a year of being trashed by the world bank and the “chocolate king” the Ukies will be begging Russia to buy their manufactured goods—the German steel companies are not going to put up with competition from them. China will be a problem for Russia sooner or later but the quality of a population is important not just quantity of people and this is something Russia needs to work on i.e. alcoholism, drug use and AIDS.
Didn’t you hear? Putin announced this week that 2013 was the 1st year since the collapse of the Soviet Ubion that Russia experienced natural population growth. Meaning more births than deaths. So unlike sickly, lazy and immigrant dependent Western Europe with its imploding birth rates, Russia is back to expanding its demographics.
So it seems that Russia is addressing the quality issue as well.
As a follow-up to “Observer”‘s point a day or two ago about a bit of a rah-rah attitude creeping in when it comes to the Kremlin, here is something from a Russian website:
“Do you want to know how to make Putin laugh?”
“OK, how?”
“Tell him ‘So, when you did this, and you were thinking that, then …'”
The point is that there is no way to know what Putin is thinking.
What makes me wonder about Russia and it’s politicans and internal changes again and again ist the way some things are being privatised instead of being socialised.
So as to share the wealth of the country systematically instead of by private institutions decisions. For example the housing and supply like gas, electricity, maintenance for the communalskaya is being done by private enterprises but information about them is hard to come by. Prices for daily life are rising steeply and salaries and working conditions are pre middle age for some. I do know this first hand…
For example near SPb whole sections of the sea and beaches are completly blocked the public access to the water with private housing and villas sourounded by walls and security guards. What once belonged to society has been annexed by private greed.
Another one is the privatisation of childrens holiday resorts just like the one mention here in the crimea. Private Investors are trying to make profits from childrens edjucation and are proud already about the grow prospects. Then comes the usual “if it would not be for government regulation” we already could be much further in terms of profits of course. It is for me the very same people and mindset plundering the Ukraine…
@ Celabelle DeCadix
With all due respect, your are missing two routes:
One is called “Nord Stream” and the other is called “South Stream.
The rest is up to Wikipedia or Google.
Sorry not to elaborate further, no time.
I enjoy Asia Times too, but the increasing number of sordid propaganda tracts from Radio Free Asia and other Real Evil Empire disinformation sewers is a worrying development.
I have already posted this from Voice of Russia, but one more time from BBC:
Ukraine to create common military brigade with Poland and Lithuania, NATO members.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/russian/rolling_news/2014/05/140527_rn_ukraine_poland_unit.shtml
I don´t understanf how Russia could possibly decide that the best strategy is simply to ingnore Ukraine until it changes its attitude. Future partnership between hysteric, nationalistic and russophobic Poland, Lithuania and Ukraine can be deadly for Russia. I hope that Putin has some very good secret plan and “Let it be” isn´t the best he can do.
Cicero, of course China may not be ‘stable’. After only 5000 years of civilization, it could fall apart at any moment. Wishful thinking from Mordor on the Potomac I fear.
Observer, a nice disinformation tract, I would say. The Bosses in Mordor on the Potomac fear nothing more than an alliance between China and Russia, with Iran, Central Asia, Brazil, Venezuela and other non-stooge states thrown in, and India likely to follow once they realise that the Judeo-Christian Western Empire only has room for them as obedient stooges. It is going to be a supreme propaganda imperative to sow distrust between Russia and China, along the age-old ‘Divide and Rule’ principles. Russia’s only future with the West is as a slave state smashed into pieces.
Just learned something pretty shocking to me: Russia is continuing to allow Ukraine to get back it’s military gear from Crimea, even thought they’ve cut off the water, don’t recognise it and are immediately using that stuff in Donbass.
They’ve removed $1 Billion worth so far.
http://economics.unian.net/industry/922616-ukraina-vyivezla-iz-okkupirovannogo-kryima-voennogo-imuschestva-na-1-mlrd.html
Is Putin insane!?
About the russian military dependency on Ukraine, here is an interesting article:
http://johnhelmer.net/?p=10798
@China & Russia strategic interests have a strong potential for conflict in the long run:
Nothing is excluded. But what surprises me most is the anger that the Sino-Russian raprochement evokes in some people minds. It is, I suppose, a reflection of a latent Russophobia. It is a secret desire to see Russia harmed, humiliated, belittled. It is conjugated with a Sinophobia, to be sure.
I suggest the answer lies in the author, messenger and context – a delegate’s attempt to undermine morale targeted at the unitiated, mapping that the opposition has the same “problem” that the friends of the delegate have.
One part of the preparation for the next stage is the greater integration of NATO’s military industrial complex under the hegemony of the US – manifested in such things as new coordination standards in weaponry – look at the different weapon systems deployed by NATO – and subsidies to the US MIC for example by the UK replacing trident.
Concentration on the Ukraine is a form of strategic myopia.
I remember seeing a English documentary “world biggest air planes” in which the author went out of his way to introduce Mrya 225 and Ruslan as the biggest “Ukrainian monsters” (and “Ukrainian” this and that) aircraft ever buildt. He came back to it several times, mentioning “Ukrainian” experts and engineers and so on. Not a word of Soviet, or Russian AND Ukranian technicians and flight engineers, no no.
Some baffled viewers must have wondered how such a poor, sick and troublesome country that didn´t even exist when the planes where buildt, all by itself, could have financed education and years of testings and development.
The author of this article seems to be convincing himself the same, all this flight & Rocket science developed out of an independent vacuum or something.
Mikhas
A good read and accurate, imo. Ukraine’s MIC is heading towards a Detroit decommission scenario.
What about the other face of this scenario. Who will buy Ukrainian military goods if not Russia?
Nato counrties rush about desperately trying to sell arms to each other: none of them will welcome Ukrainian competition.
Ukrainian wages already sit at 25% of Russian wages. What will the loss of their most important customer do?
Machiavelli is no longer cutting edge.
Chess is a linear game in which the most limiting rule is that you can only make one move at a time.
Good shepherds know that worrying the goats upsets the milk, so loud noises are not often made.
Men use muscles to think; some their brains and some their penises.
Humans often are subject to mapping and self-delusion.
Apparatchiks including spies- quite low on the intelligence food chain – are controlled through their insecurities, which include but are not limited to a notion of fairness, hope, nationalism, money, seeking to belong, seeking to join the cognescenti, and sexual appetite.
As Hamid Karzai and NSA attest, a would be hegemon has no allies and no friends; only interests and purpose.
Would be hegemons generally have states, departments within which have their interests and purpose; not generally allies or friends.
The “candidates” in the recent “election”, the oligarchs and other cognescenti know this.
Hence hypotheses like paperclip and Zhirinovsky options amongst others.
The rabbit is angling for a job in the IMF/World bank universe, whilst developing his foundation.
Unfortunately not for him the Tony Blair option.
Useful fools are by definition – useful.
It is highly likely that 57 varieties and the cake lady are useful fools as is Mr. McCain, although they may believe they are members of the cognescenti.
Whatever happened to Stepan Bandera?
Perhaps if these hypotheses are factored into the analyses greater clarity may be achieved.
Not only but also.
http://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2014/05/28/what-are-polish-death-squads-fighting-for-in-ukraine.html
On the 22nd of February 2014 a polyglot conventition was held at Maidan.
Reportedly the languages included
English, German, Hebrew, Italian, Lithuanian, Polish as well as the Galician dialect of Ukrainian.
Tusk apparently thinks his name is spelt Pilsudski, and Sikorski Dmowski, but maybe Ryzd-Smigly and Beck.
The dangers of penile stimulation?
For those interested some more articles on Russia and the Ukrainian arms industry:
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/05/19/congress-targets-russia-s-satan-missile.html
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article38442.htm
http://www.rferl.org/content/russia-ukraine-military-equipment/25312911.html
http://www.svoboda.org/content/article/25308098.html
Congratulations to this excellent analysis!
Best wishes from Austria!
Dear Saker
Regrettably, although Asia Times is generally very good, especially Pepe Excobar, they do seem to have a few CIA trolls contributing to them. That article seems to be one of them. Perhaps a more accurate view is that of the Moon Of Alabama in this article: http://goo.gl/tLQYKo.
Once organizations like the Brookings Institute start expressing sentiments like this, often Washington alters course. They are controlled by the same people after all, the people who own the CFR which dictates foreign policy to Washington, their wholly owned subsidiary.
Surely an important point is that Vladimir Putin’s primary responsibility is to the interests of Russia and the Russian people. I’m sure that VP would like to help any people who are Russian speaking and/or culture but he must take the actions (or otherwise) that best serve Russian interests in the long term. Paul Craig Roberts wrote an article a few days ago discussing this: http://goo.gl/zUXMbw. VP knows full well that a war has started, even if the shooting hasn’t. As someone pointed out here a week or so ago, in war it’s important to never do what your enemy wants you to, always aim to do everything they don’t want. If VP is still trying to prise Germany away from the EU and NATO, he has to play his cards carefully, as Merkel still seems to stick to the US, despite public sentiment in Germany. The NSA must have some explosive details about her financial affairs (surely it couldn’t be about anything else!).
As you’ve mentioned, Poroshenko is a prostitute ready to offer himself to the highest bidder. However, he does have substantial assets in Russia. Hopefully if the use of the military against civilians in Eastern Ukraine/Novorussia continues, it will be time to institute economic sanctions against the perpetrator, e.g. the “President of Ukraine” and freeze some assets. That might clarify his thinking a bit and will certainly make Washington look even more like moronic liars if they complain. Also Russia is now requiring payment for Ukrainian gas by the end of May, so that’s a further pressure point.
Regarding any military action Russia might take, you’ve already mentioned that it’s more likely to take the form of jamming all their communications and possibly even lobbing the odd one or two Iskanders into Ukrainian/Nats military assets, without boots and tracks on the ground. Surely that’s still an option?
Further to my comment. Building heavy industry in Russia to replace The Ukraine could boost the entire Russian economy and help the trade balance.
Cicero:
4) The majority of the Ukraine must eventually be absorbed by Russia in order to secure its position in the Eurasian landmass. It is not merely an issue about factories, farmland, coal mines, or warm bodies. This is a psychological and spiritual test of the Russian nation’s direction.
The desirable and elegant solution would be to saw off western Ukraine around about Vinnitsya and let it go its own way and absorb the rest, including Kiev.
Saker,
Do you have a link for the story of the intention for Russia’s new credit card system to be compatible with China’s UnionPay system?
Thank yous!
To old auntie for the alternative pipeline routes (looked them up, I feel relieved)
To Nora for her link about the crazy “Corkers” (Corker and McCain).
The article overall is correct. In the short term it will be inconvenient for Russia [a disaster for Ukraine] but in the long term it will be no problem. It will make Russia stronger and richer. All that will happen is Russia’s re-equipment with more modern Military equipment will be delayed a few years until in most cases it is replaced with better Russian substitutes. Russia has the technology to replace everything they now get from Ukraine in most cases with better gear or easily get it from other sources. The real beneficiaries of the entire episode are going to be the Chocolate King and all his Oligath mates who still control Ukraine and have done since 1990. If his plans come true and Ukraine joins the EU he then will be able to sell his Chocolates all through the EU using slave labor rates in Ukraine. That will soon offset any loss of sales in Russia. As the poorer 50% of Romania, Hungary, Poland etc. now know joining the EU does not mean instant wealth. The poorest 50% are now far poorer than they ever were under Communism. If the East of Ukraine feels that Russia has exploited them they will soon find out what it is to be exploited if they join the EU. The solution in Ukraine as Putin said was for the people to elect an honest Government. That can only be done by the people of Ukraine finally exercising there power at the ballot box in a responsible and sensible way and continually putting in the work to keep there Politicians honest. For democracy to work well you have to put in the work. Australian.