Dreams of a sleeping alligator – dream two: size matters and Obama’s Zugzwang

So was it a good time or a bad time to go on break?

It was a good time.

Why?

Well, for one thing, I *needed* it. Then, well, as you see, I did not really ‘leave’. But most importantly, this is a good time to take a break precisely because the Russians have begun a military operation in Syria. The truth be told, *during* a military operation very few people really know what is going on. Just remember all the rumors about the upcoming Russian military operations and how they were all widely off getting pretty much everything wrong except that ‘something’ would happen. Same here. Only worse. Right now, all parties to the conflict, including the Russians, have a vested interest in not revealing what is really going on. Oh, I am not saying that the Russians are lying the way the Americans always do, only that there is a lot that they are not saying.

Let me give to examples.

Dream two: why size matters, even in Syria

Do you remember all the hyperbole about the Russian military intervention? It is still happening right now. And I am not referring to the rumors about a Russian ground invasion. There are smaller, much less noticeable semi-lies which are creeping in the mainstream public discourse but which are not based in fact. The first one is that Russia has imposed a de-facto ‘no fly’ zone over Syria.

That simply is not true, at least not yet.

First, there is still NO evidence that any S-300 (whether Russian or Syrian) are active. Yes, I know, the Missile Cruiser Moskva is currently off the coast of Syria and it is practicing anti-air defense operations. But the reality is that this presence is limited in time and that the Moskva is not scheduled to say for more than a few weeks. Second, Russia has exactly FOUR dedicated air superiority fighters in Syria. That is not enough to control the airspace. Yes, these are very modern SU-30SMs, with an advanced long range radar, some excellent short and medium range air-to-air weapons and they are fantastically agile thanks to their thrust-vectoring capability. But only 4 of them simply is not enough. In my opinion, it would take at least 12 such aircraft to really “lock” the Syrian airspace 24/7: 4 in the air (2 pairs – 2 in the north and 2 in the south), another 4 on quick reaction alert on the ground and another 4 on maintenance/reserve. And while the SU-30SM is a formidable fighter, much better than the F-16s, F-15s, F-18, and even Typhoons or Rafales NATO could deploy, there are only 4 of them versus, at least in theory, the entire airpower of NATO, CENTCOM, Israel and the US Navy. The truth is that the Russians never intended those four SU-30SMs to create a “Russia only” fly zone over Syria. If, and that is a big ‘if’ the Empire wanted to take control over the airspace over Syria it could do, maybe not without losses, that rather rapidly.

In my opinion these four SU-30SM are simply hear to keep any overzealous Turkish or Israeli fighters from feeling that they own the skies over Syria. That’s it.

And yes, I know that the SU-34 also have a solid air-to-air capability. But, again, not enough to stop the potentially immense airpower the West could bring into play if it wanted to.

Then there is the Russian cruise missile strike today.

Did you ever wonder why the hell the Russians used the Caspian Sea flotilla to deliver this strike rather than ships in the Mediterranean or long-range bombers (like, say, the Tu-95MS)?

Surprise and secrecy, of course. But not only.

First, these missiles flew over Iran and Iraq, thereby making these missile strikes a de-facto joint, coalition effort. Second, this now shows the entire Middle-East that Russian cruise missiles have the range, accuracy, reliability and power to strike at any target in the region. It is one thing to say that a cruise missile can fly 2’500km and quite another to actually be launched from 1’500km away and hit a target with a 3m accuracy.

With this strike, the Russians put everybody on notice. Including CENTCOM, by the way.

So size does matter: 4 aircraft, even modern ones, are not that much and a ripple-launch of 26 cruise missiles on targets 1’500km away sends a powerful message.

There was a lot of sensationalist nonsense written about this operation before it even began, and now that it has begun, there is even more sensationalist nonsense written about it. I urge everybody to take it easy, let the mission run its course and let some time pass before jumping to conclusions, even about apparently ‘simple’ tactical issues. Let’s wait until at least some of the dust settles and then let’s see what has really taken place and what has not.

For whatever it’s worth, I still believe that the real “action” will come from Iran, not Russia. Russia is playing primarily a diplomatic role, not a military one. Why?

Think of it: the Russians know full well that Daesh (aka ‘ISIS’) cannot be defeated by airpower alone. So what are they really doing? What is their real objective?

What they are really doing is using their military operation to achieve a political goal: to force the West to accept Assad. Remember – “war is a mere continuation of politics by other means“. This is also true here. The Russians are not really trying to single handedly wipe out Daesh, they are forcing the West to accept Assad, while boosting the morale of the Syrian military and demoralizing the Daesh/al-Qaeda forces. They are also providing media-cover for the Iranian/Hezbollah intervention on the ground.

While the corporate media and, alas, much of the blogosphere looks at strikes, aircraft, missiles etc. the real “action” is in the political and diplomatic sphere.

In conclusion I would say that at least so far, this move is nothing short of brilliant and that in just a few days Russia has achieved amazing results. As for the Americans, they look like total idiots. The Russians invited them to join the joint information center with the Iranians and Iraqis, and the Americans turned that down. Then they complained that they were informed of the strikes just 1 hour before their execution. When the Americans complained that Russia was hitting the wrong targets, the Russians invited them to give the Russian General Staff a list of targets. When the US, again, refused, the Russians were declared that “either the Americans don’t have a target list or they are not willing to really hurt Daesh“. Again, the Americans looks like imbeciles.

Right now, no matter what the US does or does not do – the result is always embarrassing. This is a situation which in the world of chess is called a Zugzwang: “a situation found in chess and other games wherein one player is put at a disadvantage because they must make a move when they would prefer to pass and not move. The fact that the player is compelled to move means that his position will become significantly weaker. A player is said to be “in zugzwang” when any possible move will worsen his position“.

We should not celebrate too early however. Brzezinski recently wrote that “The Russian naval and air presences in Syria are vulnerable, isolated geographically from their homeland. They could be “disarmed” if they persist in provoking the US“. Guys, I am sorry, but he is absolutely correct!

The way Putin is playing this game is to make it politically impossible for the USA to take direct military action, and I hope that he succeeds, but the more humiliated Obama & Co. will feel, the more dangerous they will become. This is why I predict that Russia will end up offering them a face “kinda saving” solution, precisely to avoid cornering them and making them do something really dumb and dangerous.

So – no celebrations yet and don’t get too taken in by all the media nonsense about what is taking place.

That’s it for now. See you in my dreams :-)

The Saker (temporarily dreaming that he is a dreaming alligator)

Petri Krohn on October 08, 2015 · at 10:42 pm EST/EDT

Ukraine and Syria are one war, two fronts. If the West threatens Russia in Syria, Russia can escalate in the Ukraine. I wrote this on September 28. (Some more chess terminology.)

Putin’s Chess Game on Ukraine and Syria

Russia’s position was very weak at the start of the Ukraine Crisis. It controlled nothing of importance by which it could threaten or coerce the West. It could not close the Danish Straits for Western traffic. Nor the Bosporus. It could not cut the US out of SWIFT or the international credit marker. Russia could not block SouthStream, NordStream or Ukrainian gas transits.

Everything Russia COULD do amounted to shooting itself in the foot; it would be advancing Western and US geopolitical aims. Russia could use its “Gas Weapon” and cut gas from Europe — and lose its main market to US LNG. It could cut Siberian flight for Western airlines — and lose money. It could send tanks to Kiev and be labeled an aggressor and be isolated from Europe for the next 50 years, at the same time guaranteeing a perpetual US occupation of Europe.

The only reasonable thing Russia could do in response to Western provocations was covertly strengthening Donbass and the Novorossiyan Armed Forces. Now this strategy is paying off. In Syria Russia has now “double checked” (chess term) the West. Pepe Escobar correctly points out the two threats; which ever way the West moves, it is still “checked”.

Most importantly Russia has now pinned down the West in Ukraine with Minsk 2.0. Neither Russia nor Novorossiya need Minsk 2.0. Ukraine is already militarily defeated. Europe now needs peace in Ukraine. The West can thus no longer threaten Russia with Ukraine. Russia now has the initiative. Which makes the situation a “triple check”.

Escalation Dominance
(Update September 30)

What makes the Russian position so strong is that Russia now has “escalation dominance” in Ukraine. Kiev has lost the war twice. It can gain nothing by escalation. The situation is very different from what it was in the spring of 2014: the West can no longer pressure Russia through Ukraine.

How To Manage Putin: Russia’s ‘Escalation Dominance’ – February 05, 2015

What troubles some experts about the Ukraine crisis is a phenomenon called “escalation dominance.” The term was coined by U.S. military and national security experts who developed the strategy of deterrence during the Cold War. The concept holds that the United States can best contain conflicts and avoid escalation if it is dominant at each successive rung up the “ladder of escalation,” all the way to the top rung of nuclear weapons. Such a doctrine, based in balance-of-power calculations, is important because that’s how former KGB operative Vladimir Putin and his tight circle of military hardliners and spies seem to think.

As the Obama administration and European allies have responded to Russian provocations with ever tighter economic sanctions, they have capitalized on their escalation dominance in the economic sphere. The Russian economy is increasingly isolated and all but crippled. Yet Putin continues to escalate the crisis militarily to applause from a majority of Russians, because he has taken the measure of NATO and apparently decided that in the military sphere at least he has escalation dominance.

“We seem to have forgotten that even a weaker state with much more at stake in a given region and conflict can have ‘escalation dominance’ far out of proportion to its relative power, and that’s especially true if it’s a major nuclear weapons state like Russia,” said Dmitri Simes, president of the Center for the National Interest and a Russian expert. Those who advocate supplying Ukraine with lethal weapons hope to increase Russian casualties and raise the pain for Putin until he backs down and abandons the rebels, he notes, but it could very well have the opposite effect of provoking Putin to double down once again and escalate the military crisis further. “The West needs to understand that this is a very dangerous situation that could turn Russian into a hostile nuclear power for the foreseeable future, and lead to nuclear brinksmanship every bit as dangerous as the Cuban missile crisis.”

Can the US escalate in Ukraine by ordering Kiev to attack?
(Response to a reader question)

Russia was militarily strong in Ukraine, weak in Syria. Besides, Russian action in Ukraine was limited by international law. Russia could not enter Ukraine, as this would have lead to an American escalation in Syria, one that Russia would have been unable to counter.

Now Russia is strong enough in Syria. The US cannot respond on the Ukrainian front, as that is where Russia is and has always been militarily stronger.

If Russia comes into conflict with the US in Syria, then the gloves are off in Ukraine too. Russia will no longer be hindered from overtly supporting Novorossiya, maybe taking over Kiev too. Also, the Minsk agreement can be interpreted as approving Russian intervention if it is unilaterally broken by Kiev. If it expires on January 1st, without a permanent agreement on autonomy Russia will have free hands to act.

121 Comments

The Kulak on October 08, 2015 · at 1:39 am EST/EDT

Saker,

First, wanted to say another contributor the Unz Review noticed you and Andrei Korykbo have a fan Olivier in Leipzig:

http://www.unz.com/ldinh/flagless-germany/

In his youth, Olliver gravitated towards Sartre, then freebased Joyce, Dostoyevsky, Camus, Strindberg, Hemingway, Marquez and Kafka. “In hindsight, I don’t quite like his convoluted style.” Among contemporary political commentators, Olliver pays attention to Noam Chomsky, Andre Vltchek, Michael Parenti, Bill Mitchell, Michael Hudson, John Pilger, Andrew Korybko, Pepe Escobar, Paul Craig Roberts and The Saker. He hates political correctness. Although Olliver’s English is deft and fluent, he becomes exasperated and even apologizes whenever a word or phrase doesn’t come to his mind immediately. Born in Hamburg, Olliver has been in Leipzig for more than 15 years.

Second, no one is suggesting the U.S. could not cut off the sea and airlift supply lines to the Russian forces in Latakia — IF it were willing to start WW3. That’s the interesting thing about ZBig’s comment is that no one — not Politico or anybody else who picked up in MSM as far as we can tell asked him to clarify what he meant. Even McInsane and Marco Rubio got some minimal pushback on Fox Business and CNBC respectively when they suggested shooting down Russian planes in Syria.

Third we agree that the number of Sukhois by itself does not equal no fly zone. And maybe the speculation about S-300/400s on the ground and the Moskva is overblown. But judging by the leaflet drops getting play even in the Daily Mail courtesy of Sasha Kots and Komsomolskaya Pravda, that Iranian ground assault is coming sooner rather than later. And the usual fanatical Russophobes who eagerly lap up the propaganda put out by the fired by U.S. Naval War College ex-prof. John R. Schindler are plugging the ‘FSA’ boasting about TOW missiles already killing Russians, without any proof. That tells me they’re getting nervous, given the general tendency of Arab forces to crack and break when the leadership bails out as ISIS leaders are, that a major, humiliating rout is coming. One that for the Empire will be even worse than the crushing Kiev junta defeats of August/September 2014 in the eastern cauldrons or Donetsk Airport/Debaltsevo.
- Uncle Bob 1 on October 08, 2015 · at 3:39 am EST/EDT
  
  ” But judging by the leaflet drops getting play even in the Daily Mail courtesy of Sasha Kots and Komsomolskaya Pravda, that Iranian ground assault is coming sooner rather than later.”
  
  When I read the article there were,I believe 280 comments from people, (on that site it shows were those posting comments are from) mostly from the UK,and US.With a few from Germany,Italy,and Russia.I read them,and almost all of the comments were pro-Russian or pro-Putin.While that isn’t a true “scientific” poll.I think it is pretty accurate as to the support Russia’s anti-ISIS stand in Syria generates among the Western public.
  - Peter on October 08, 2015 · at 4:47 am EST/EDT
    
    .”I think it is pretty accurate as to the support Russia’s anti-ISIS stand in Syria generates among the Western public.”
    
    The US promotion of ISIS, starting with 40.000 non-existent refugees trapped on a mountain, or perhaps I should say some refugees that were not trapped, has taken on a momentum of its own.
    The US fell off the wagon and Putin jumped on. Putins just sitting on the wagon waving at the US laying in the dirt behind him.
    
    A bit more serious than that, but that’s the mental picture I get.
    - Daniel Rich on October 08, 2015 · at 9:36 pm EST/EDT
      
      @ Peter,
      
      Q; The US fell off the wagon and Putin jumped on. Putins just sitting on the wagon waving at the US laying in the dirt behind him. A bit more serious than that, but that’s the mental picture I get.
      
      R; In martial arts you never make fun of your opponent, no matter what. You either kill him/her or pick him/her up. Putin keeps reaching out one hand, but the other weeds out the unwanted [note that I left out a comparison to anything living and/or breathing. They deserve it].
      
      After ISIS is eliminated, the collective west will still be there; H.E. Mr. Putin knows that and acts accordingly, as any wise wo/man would.
    - Mulga Mumblebrain on October 10, 2015 · at 12:26 am EST/EDT
      
      Peter, the Real Evil, Exceptionally Evil, Empire is at risk of being hoist on its own Daash petard. They created the chaos destroying the Middle East, deliberately and callously, in pursuit of the Oded Yinon Plan and to cement US hegemony over the hydrocarbon wealth. They created, trained (particularly the psychological indoctrination of a death-squad army of extreme, if not unparalleled, brutality)armed and unleashed Daash, and used it, with the full co-operation of the Western MSM Zionazi hate-machine, to vilify all Moslems as terrorists, preparatory to the destruction of Syria, Lebanon and Iran, and then they pretended to oppose Daash. They expended a lot of propaganda effort pretending to bomb Daash, but, mysteriously, it did the death-squad army no harm, as the supplies of arms and psychopaths flowed from Turkey. And now, in a few days, Russia dares to hit this US investment, hit it hard, and upend all Uncle Satan’s plans. No wonder that evil psychotics like Brzezinski have lost the plot and are demanding WWIII.
      - bill burke on October 10, 2015 · at 8:33 am EST/EDT
        
        appearances. well they can deceive. more likely, is that the daash isis(israeli security intelligence service) group is only needed for tasks that are huge, but limited. Only so much territory is needed, and only so many fighters. So, in cooperation with elite goals, russia kills off the excess.
        putin went to switzerland for his childs birth, putin went to maine when george bush seniior called him and he was no longer president. putin comes from old royalty, Stalin was fully under the control of elites, and when he arrested his local bosses, and rebelled, he was promptly poisoned. Putin is not outside of the top elites control. Who is? Khadaffi rebelled, so, he was killed.
        They are forcing netanyahoo to attack iran, and the dominoes that fall from that (many blamed on muslms as you say), will kill billions of us. Storing food are you? I hope you do.
  - Bjorn H on October 09, 2015 · at 6:01 am EST/EDT
    
    The same thing has happened in Denmark. Comment sections in even the gutter press has gone from russophobe to lovefest for Putin.
The Kulak on October 08, 2015 · at 1:46 am EST/EDT

One more thought…does ZBig really believe the Turks would economically slash their wrists if not cut their own throats by disrupting trade with Russia over Syria, after 4 years of the Tartus/Latakia express? Think of all the rotting Turkish produce this winter if Moscow can find alternative suppliers in Latin America, India or former Soviet Central Asia. Russia could even lift the food embargo for Greek or Italian produce if it became absolutely necessary to prevent an excessive rise of food price imports from warmer climes.

Meanwhile Turkish producers would be facing ruin, and that’s before we get into the risk of a gas supply cutoff this winter, and the fact that Turkey would be in breach of the 1936 Montreux convention if it blocked Russian supply ships passage through the Bosporous. In my opinion the worst Erdogan might try is to stop and search the Russian ships for ‘safety inspections’ or somesuch, and maybe try to prevent the passage of bombs through the Straits on nominal safety grounds. In which case the Antonov heavy lifters alone would not be sufficient to transport all the rockets and bombs to Latakia. THAT may be what ZBig had in mind, since I don’t think even he is delusional or stupid enough to imagine the Turks will go to war against Russia and the U.S. will get to fight Putin to the last Turk or more accurately until the Turkish lira and economy crash and burn horribly. But again, why would the Turks try to ban the passage of ordinance through the Bosporous now when they didn’t do it before Russia deployed its jets to the country and Assad seemed on the ropes this summer?

No if Erdogan was that stupid he’d have to be looking over his shoulder and be worrying about the Turkish Army overthrowing him in a coup, and then swiftly pivoting back towards Turkstream, Putin and the Chinese.

One of my favorite commentators likes to say that desperate people do stupid things. Yes the U.S.A is humiliated and looks ridiculous right now but I still feel a certain trepidation about the Russian intervention like the Saker because I know the Empire could try all sorts of stunts, including false flags or a sudden suicidal Kiev forces offensive against the DNR/LNR, to ‘right’ the situation.
Peter J.Antonsen on October 08, 2015 · at 2:01 am EST/EDT

Dear Saker.

You are not supposed to tell the readers of your website the truth. Who do you think you are?

Your analysis are the best on the planet. Who the hell do you think you are?

Don’t want to praise you too much, but as I am unknown, how much harm can I do?

The Russian leaders and their people are taking some heavy risks to help the Syrian people and their own people in the Ukraine and elsewhere. The struggle is (as you say) far from over, far from decided. But it is the taking of these risks that the Russian leaders, their courageous soldiers, the Militias of Novorossya, the Syrian soldiers and their courageous Assad, the Hezbollah, the Palestinians (many who are fighting within Hezbollah, or with the pro-Syrian forces), that will be recorded in the pages of history as the most valiant of actions in the defense of world liberty.

For the Democratic Republics!

IMAGINE
- Anonymous on October 08, 2015 · at 10:46 am EST/EDT
  
  Your analysis are the best on the planet. Who the hell do you think you are?
  
  Saker has constantly got it wrong wrt Russia and it’s military involvement, in fact he sounds too cocky sure. One thing we have forgotten is that the Russian Orthodox church has fully backed the Kremlin and it’s war on ISIS. The pipelines are to be the spoils of war, the main war is the destruction of history, culture, religion and replaced by fake history. The destruction of Mesopotamia, Syria, Yemen, Iran, parts of Rus is what the Khazars want to achieve. Khazar 2.0 is currently dormant in it’s tracks.
  - Peter J.Antonsen on October 08, 2015 · at 2:18 pm EST/EDT
    
    Your comment is unclear (makes no sense to me). “Saker has constantly got it wrong…” “wrt”=? “Khazar 2.0 is currently dormant in its tracks.” ???
    - Ann on October 11, 2015 · at 7:16 am EST/EDT
      
      to Peter…this is a troll
  - Anonymous on October 08, 2015 · at 2:35 pm EST/EDT
    
    “Saker has constantly got it wrong wrt Russia and it’s military involvement, in fact he sounds too cocky sure.”
    
    High noise to signal ratios have their uses.
    
    “The destruction of Mesopotamia, Syria, Yemen, Iran, parts of Rus is what the Khazars want to achieve. Khazar 2.0 is currently dormant in it’s tracks.”
    
    as do assertion and certainty.
    - Mulga Mumblebrain on October 10, 2015 · at 12:33 am EST/EDT
      
      The Zionazis clearly wish to obliterate all traces of non-Jewish civilization in those parts of Eretz Yisrael that they have not yet occupied. The same happens with Israeli ‘archeology’ where evidence of non-Jewish habitation in the past, that show that Jewish occupation was relatively brief, relatively late and confined to small areas, are often destroyed, and in the infamous destruction of a Moslem cemetery in Jerusalem to build a ‘Museum of Tolerance’. Big Brother would love that last example in particular.
      - Anonymous on October 10, 2015 · at 11:13 am EST/EDT
        
        “The Zionazis”
        
        You probably attended school at some point and possibly realise that name calling was a technique used by the aggreived and ineffectual.
        
        The ineffectual are often hoist by their own anger and the wise often encourage this since it is often one of the vectors of their transcendence. If you need an exampleperhaps this will help
        
        http://russia-insider.com/en/politics/nice-try-ash-carter-tries-scare-russia-away-syria/ri10385
        
        Mulga Mumblebrain on October 11, 2015 · at 2:27 am EST/EDT
        
        Anon, Zionazi is a purely descriptive usage. It means the fanatic pro-Israel Jews and Sabbat Goyim stooges who act like Nazis. They haven’t, yet, moved to the stage of creating industrial scale extermination camps (although some fundamentalist ‘religious’ fanatics in Israel, and a number of political zealots have called for the deliberate genocide of the Palestinians)but have, nonetheless, murdered millions, so far. There, that’s not so hard to understand, is it.
        
        Anonymous on October 11, 2015 · at 11:55 am EST/EDT
        
        “Anon, Zionazi is a purely descriptive usage.”
        
        Words without definition is name calling, and definition is adopting linear practice in a lateral world.
        
        Definition and/or description are barriers to perception as they are often linear binary constructions – ours/theirs, zero or one, plus or minus, this/not this etc.
        
        Your fairly consistent notions of sole or prime agency are further illustrations of your immersion in the opponents’ ideology. Perhaps these notions of agency are encouraged by your own perception and/practice of having no agency excepting contributing to a blog.
        
        A blog is a broadcast medium.
        
        Removed 2 lines ‘Moderator Policy #2″ “All comment have to be impeccably courteous …” mod-hs
        
        However evaluation is always a function of purpose and hence like many contributions, your contributions are useful indicators of levels and spread of ideological integration since,
        
        “The ineffectual are often hoist by their own anger and the wise often encourage this since it is often one of the vectors of their transcendence.”
        
        Thank you for your continued contribution.
        
        Anonymous on October 11, 2015 · at 5:25 pm EST/EDT
        
        “Removed 2 lines ‘Moderator Policy #2″ “All comment have to be impeccably courteous …” mod-hs”
        
        They were courteous in expression and content since they were communicating the results derived from various analyses of the contributor’s contributions.
        
        Broadcasts are made on transmission and hence this information has been received in full by some audiences. All the moderation achieved was to preclude access to the full text to some of “your” audience.
        
        One sentence that was deleted was a quotation from the contributor’s text namely,
        
        “that’s not so hard to understand, is it.” since as a courtesy I decided to leave out the contributor’s “There”.
- peter antonsen on October 08, 2015 · at 3:41 pm EST/EDT
  
  The very next day come the panicked headlines in the largest imperialist website on this planet.
  http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/syria-government-offensive_56165eb5e4b0dbb8000d31c9?sixp3nmi
  
  and from major newspapers,
  
  http://www.wsj.com/articles/defense-ministers-from-nato-hit-out-at-russian-action-in-syria-1444291618
  
  and dozens more, including TV and Radio.
  
  It is clear what the concerns of the imperialist Oligarchs are. They fear for the lives of their terrorist progeny. In the long term, they fear for the lives of the terrorist incubators.
  
  Their media are full of fear, panic, and attempts to explain.
  
  As the pincers closed near Kalach Hitler’s kept media also attempted to explain.
  
  The Zionist American media are attempting to explain, and also attempting to ignore their slaughter of innocent civilians in the “Doctors Without Borders Hospital” in Kunduz, Afghanistan, which was bombed, repeatedly, by terrorist American aircraft.
  https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CB4QqQIwAGoVChMI1qPC2pazyAIVxCQeCh0uEwgZ&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.washingtonpost.com%2Fworld%2Fdoctors-without-borders-announce-they-want-international-fact-finding-commission%2F2015%2F10%2F07%2F24103848-6cd4-11e5-b31c-d80d62b53e28_story.html&usg=AFQjCNEkomREFVk8Peo4WIza69pBke3UKQ&sig2=RLYWhUM0tlTsrBDFCEReHQ
  
  Read the article. There are some interesting portions that leak through the careful Washington Post tint.
  
  Two million murdered in Vietnam, 1 million in Indonesia, another million in Iraq, another million dead and millions dislocated in Syria, Libya, and Afghanistan, a whole nation denied in Palestine, and a War against the Russian people and their Slavic family in Southeast Europe.
  
  Resistance is what they dread!
  
  What they fear is life come to life.
  
  Nations reborn.
  
  IMAGINE
mikhas on October 08, 2015 · at 2:06 am EST/EDT

Putin said this spring that Russia “has delivered some systems” of the s-300’s to Syria. Later it was said that all contracts will be fulfilled including the S-300 and the YAK trainer/fighters.
- no mercy on October 08, 2015 · at 11:24 am EST/EDT
  
  Where did Saker take his 4/4/4 (repair and maintenance counting for 30% time of disponibility) formula for Su fighters?
  That rate could be true for US Black Hawk helicopters with 2 hours per day flying time, otherwise 50/50 is the correct number. Just ask the Egyptian army about their experience with US hardware. Not mentioning that 1:4 pieces is the need for canibalizing the spare parts because of the poor endurance and reliability.
  - Daniel Rich on October 08, 2015 · at 10:42 pm EST/EDT
    
    @ no mercy,
    
    Q; Not mentioning that 1:4 pieces is the need for canibalizing the spare parts because of the poor endurance and reliability.
    
    R; Have you forgotten how an M-16 can be used to smack enemies in the head with? Just ask Jessica Lynch…
chimmy on October 08, 2015 · at 2:25 am EST/EDT

Thank you, as always for the insight.
Peter on October 08, 2015 · at 2:38 am EST/EDT

The US may still own the politicians in the vassal states but they have certainly lost the populations.
I wonder how many NATO countries would follow the US in an attack on Russian forces in Syria knowing that it could easily escalate?
US will be desperate because if they lose here, it wont be long before they lose the petro dollar.
- Jim of Olym on October 08, 2015 · at 3:13 am EST/EDT
  
  not me, but I’m just an 80 year old ‘citizen’ of t he USSA.
  Hope the petro dollars and their ilk last as long as I do….
  - Peter on October 08, 2015 · at 4:58 am EST/EDT
    
    Don’t say that. What happens if you keep chugging along till you’re a hundred and ten? That’s another thirty years. I may not – most likely will not – last that long.
  - augusto2 on October 08, 2015 · at 12:54 pm EST/EDT
    
    nice, Jim.
    Thanks for this moment of smile and laugh to us, The situation is so serious elsewhere that it couldn´t fit better.
  - Grieved on October 08, 2015 · at 3:03 pm EST/EDT
    
    Stick around a while and watch it happen. It won’t be so bad. And it will happen in a gradual way, although there will be shocks along that way. The US will remain a strong regional economy and power. The gradual tapering of the dollar for international transactions will take a long time. There will be very serious price inflation in the US, and many corporations will bankrupt to wipe out debt. There may even be a call for Jubilee, where all citizen debt is erased. The economy will be dead, only a black economy with alternative payment systems will operate. We will enter a several decades-long period of rebuilding a domestic manufacturing economy, and take the opportunity to utilize a lot of green upgrades.
    
    There will also be a massive surge of citizen indignation, unquenchable outrage that government has impoverished the people, probably struggles here and there with militias against militarized cops, and maybe some bankers might go to jail – the last is a dream, but who knows how mad the US people will get. The information war, by the way, will be lost and the floodgates will open to alternative media and an enlightening of the people as they turn to confront the war crimes committed in their name. It will be a time of national shame. The American people may rediscover their transcendent spiritual roots.
    
    Of course, it may not happen this way. But I’m reserving share in the market of potential scenarios ;)
  - Anonymous on October 09, 2015 · at 1:02 pm EST/EDT
    
    “Hope the petro dollars and their ilk last as long as I do….”
    
    Hope and facilitation are different things.
    
    Some in 1929 facilitated the hope by jumping off buildings, but that is likely not to be recommended.
  - Mulga Mumblebrain on October 10, 2015 · at 12:37 am EST/EDT
    
    Chin up, Jim. You’ve got decades left I’m sure. The petro-dollar doesn’t. Mind you, the Real Evil, Exceptionally Evil, Empire will destroy the planet before surrendering its God-given right to rule over it all, forever, so we might all go together when we go.
    - Anonymous on October 10, 2015 · at 11:17 am EST/EDT
      
      “Mind you, the Real Evil, Exceptionally Evil, Empire will destroy the planet before surrendering its God-given right to rule over it all, forever, so we might all go together when we go.”
      
      You seem to be particularly drawn to notions of sole agency.
      
      Are you perhaps looking through the prism of “American exceptionalism”?
      - Mulga Mumblebrain on October 11, 2015 · at 2:33 am EST/EDT
        
        When you have a military bigger than the rest of the world put together, 1000 overseas bases and thousands of thermo-nukes, and are ruled by violent psychopaths who believe God ordained the USA to rule the planet forever, then any other ‘agency’ is utterly redundant. The USA elite is, indeed, ‘exceptional’-exceptionally evil and dangerous.
        
        Anonymous on October 11, 2015 · at 12:20 pm EST/EDT
        
        “then any other ‘agency’ is utterly redundant. The USA elite is, indeed, ‘exceptional’-exceptionally evil and dangerous.”
        
        Are you perhaps looking through the prism of “American exceptionalism?
        
        Analysis suggests that many in the world disagree, are subject to less fear than you apparently are, and are actively involved in facilitating the transcendence of the opponents – who are not restricted to members of the USA “elite”.
        
        As to notions of Samson options discussions with colleagues have been consistently held, but as outlined in a previous broadcast, if these fail some accept and understand that humans die, and so blackmail will likely not undermine resolve.
        
        Some accept and understand that the opponents’ way is the way of coercion and death of varying velocity through war, stress, starvation, and ecological damage to name just a few factors, and that fuller co-operation is the way of life contingent upon the transcendence of the opponents, ergo through transcendence the opponents will be rendered exceptional, just not in the ways they might imagine.
        
        Given developments over many years it would appear that any other agency is not utterly redundant. That’s not hard to understand is it?
        
        roxze on October 14, 2015 · at 7:07 am EST/EDT
        
        -so what kind of dialectics are we talking about here?
        
        Anonymous on October 12, 2015 · at 9:34 am EST/EDT
        
        ” then any other ‘agency’ is utterly redundant. ”
        
        Perhaps this will calm your fears.
        
        http://russia-insider.com/en/essay/us-presidential-candidate-vladimir-golstein-announces-10-point-program/ri10368
- Purple Library Guy on October 08, 2015 · at 5:03 pm EST/EDT
  
  The problem for the West here isn’t that they’ve “lost” their populations. The problem is that they’ve been pushing hard at a fairly consistent propaganda line for over a decade now: “Al Qaeda bad. Muslims bad. Muslims terrorist. Terrorists = Muslims = bad.”
  And at the same time on a clandestine level they have been backing many of the actual Muslim terrorists. So along comes Putin and says “I’m going to wipe out your Muslim terrorist problem!” and what are they supposed to say?
  
  They’re left trying to pull a 180 in a week on over a decade’s propaganda thrust if they’re to get the public behind their new “But our Muslim terrorists are OK and it’s bad for the Russians to kill them” line. Not gonna happen. But it doesn’t mean that Western propaganda has, overall, lost its power. It’s just that Putin has been able to cleverly take advantage of it.
- Nussiminen on October 08, 2015 · at 8:20 pm EST/EDT
  
  “I wonder how many NATO countries would follow the US in an attack on Russian forces in Syria knowing that it could easily escalate?”
  
  Well, we do have the most die-hard, über-retarded populations in Eastern Europe: Psheks, Ukro-trash, and the Brown And Little Tiny Insect CountrieS. Way too stupid to realize their own utter worthlessness. Should be regime-changed by Russia as an extension to her most appropriate and dignified policy with regard to Crimea and Syria, regardless of what the rabble may feel about it.
  - Mulga Mumblebrain on October 10, 2015 · at 12:45 am EST/EDT
    
    Nussiminen, for years in Australia the country was bedeviled by an infestation of Rightwing trash called the ‘Captive Nations’, who worked as shock-troops for the Right. I discovered later that these were Nazi and fascist emigres, from the Baltics, Ukraine, Croatia, Slovenia etc who had fled the Red Army, and that they were nasty vermin. But they were well supported by the Right, even though the Croats, in particular, were dangerous thugs, even detonating a bomb in a Sydney street to protest a visit by the Yugoslav PM. In those days I thought them a cancerous remnant that would atrophy and disappear, but thanks to the USA and the idiocy of Gorbachev, the vermin are back, and, as we can see in Ukraine, are just as thoroughly evil as before, but with an even more dangerous protector and patron than ever.
    - Nussiminen on October 10, 2015 · at 10:42 am EST/EDT
      
      Mulga, interesting to hear about the ‘Captive Nations’. Spontaneously, ‘Gladio’ in Western Europe would seem to be the most appropriate comparison here. Right-wing domestic extremist scum, some of them from Gladio and the World Anti-Communist League, organized and carried out the assassination in 1986 of Sweden’s then Prime Minister, Olof Palme. Coincidentally, back in the 1970ies, there was an Ustasha Croat running wild in Stockholm too, who eventually spent 15 years in jail after having shot the Yugoslav Ambassador right at the embassy (and then temporarily released due to other Ustasha terrorists hijacking a Swedish domestic airliner, demanding freedom for the assassin). Palme was to receive quite a few death threats from Ustasha, but his most fiery, rabid enemies were found right in Sweden’s own national police force, the military, and the judiciary.
      
      With social tensions and fascist reaction becoming ever more pronounced, the entire West is heading towards total disaster — of its own making.
      - Mulga Mumblebrain on October 11, 2015 · at 2:39 am EST/EDT
        
        Nussiminen, I saw a good doco on the murder of Palme, where the complicity of the Swedish police was quite plain. The real villain was probably Carl Bildt, the long-term CIA asset, and real scum-bag, but the Empire has thousands like him, around the world. There are scores of them in this country. In fact, the rise to global dominance of the Yankee Reich will probably prove humanity’s death-knell, if only through the decades of unnatural selection where the decent members of ruling elites have been driven from public life in search of elites that are uniformly and unquestioningly pro-American.
        
        Anonymous on October 11, 2015 · at 12:43 pm EST/EDT
        
        “where the complicity of the Swedish police was quite plain.”
        
        “The real villain was probably Carl Bildt, the long-term CIA asset,”
        
        It would appear that you have limited knowledge on assasinations or “hits” if you prefer, since you fail to understand the probable relative widths and depths of complicity and necessary logistics, and then seek to limit this by assigning prime agency to Mr. Bildt.
        
        Perhaps you require the benefit of further research.
        If so investigation of the question – Whatever happened to Stepan Bandera? – may prove beneficial.
        
        Like the opponents you appear to believe that assassination is a useful strategic tool, like say torture, but many professionals would disagree on the efficacy of both assasination and torture.
        
        Doubt is a useful tool if consciously embraced and used, but is self-defeating if “certainty” by way of assertion is used to assuage doubt, even if conditioned by “probably”.
        
        Assertions are functions of pre-judgements, sometimes known as prejudices.
        
        Analyses of your contributions suggests a consistent prejudice towards the negative with a possible consequence of limiting of challenge to the opponents, whether by design or default.
        
        A tracking of your contributions and correlation against context is also illuminating.
        
        Anonymous on October 12, 2015 · at 9:59 am EST/EDT
        
        “the complicity of….”
        
        Perhaps you require some more practice in addition to testing Whatever happened to Stepan Bandera?
        
        http://www.truthdig.com/eartotheground/item/investigators_search_evidence_implicating_cia_in_murder_chilean_20151011
        
        The protocols on the behaviour of “guests” were similar in Munich and Washington.
mikhas on October 08, 2015 · at 2:57 am EST/EDT

Putin said some time ago that “we have delivered some systems” referring to the contract with Damascus on the s-300’s and later this summer that “all contracts will be fulfilled ” including the s-300 and YAK trainer fighters.
David George on October 08, 2015 · at 3:12 am EST/EDT

Exactly how does Brzezinski expect to “disarm” the Russian Caspian Sea rocket ships? He is a moron! And he is right? Give me a break.
- zweistein on October 08, 2015 · at 9:06 am EST/EDT
  
  Brzezinski. Don’t tell me this old lizard is still alive.
  
  But sure, there he is, spilling some talmudic insights about what Russia should do and what not. His fossilized brain works admiringly, the whole assembly of the twelve tribes of Zionist media is spell-bound.
  
  For a split-second, that is. And then everybody is back at their laptops and ipads, typing in a frenzy their usual fossilized drivel and thus bringing ‘the good news’ to the world.
  - Stavros H on October 08, 2015 · at 12:26 pm EST/EDT
    
    I am personally that such war criminals and all-around scumbags such Zbig and Kissinger are still alive to witness the Putin checkmate.
  - Socho on October 10, 2015 · at 2:17 pm EST/EDT
    
    Brezenji is nit a zuonist if anything as a pole he is a ti jew and a ti russian just like another ploe mad man casper wieberger the defence secretRy under reagan. That casoer ;as a pole ,was anti jew and rabid anti russian and very pro british.in fact mist kf these evil are pro british .they ard rTher english spies
- Nussiminen on October 08, 2015 · at 8:50 pm EST/EDT
  
  Well, as we all know, Zbig is both a Pshek and a Pindo. To wit: his delusions of grandeur should be second to none, especially with regard to Russia. For Zbig, Russia’s complete disarmament is an effortless act of sheer will-power.
  
  Seriously, Zbig is a senile buffoon. That’s sad as he won’t be able to fully grasp what’s happening right now to his long-standing contribution to Pindo Foreign Policy — wahhabi terrorism.
  - Uncle Bob 1 on October 08, 2015 · at 9:06 pm EST/EDT
    
    He is an Empire loyalist,a Pole,and from a Galician background.His entire life screams “Russophobe”.
    - Ann on October 16, 2015 · at 5:04 am EST/EDT
      
      I remember the very first day I ever saw him…I couldn’t believe that Americans would have such a European reptile in the admin.
Dario on October 08, 2015 · at 3:26 am EST/EDT

Dear Saker,

despite our happiness to see the development of Syrian situation, You are absolutely right…
Red Ryder on October 08, 2015 · at 3:39 am EST/EDT

The notion that the US military will take on the Russians in Syria is absurd. The US military could not afford in an election year especially to start a war. They have already declared that if the Russian planes are within 20 miles the US crafts will leave the area. Also, the Israelis are not going to challenge Russia. So, who? The Turks?

No. The US will try on the ground using the US assets with Manpads and anti-tank TOWs to damage the Russians. They would be happy to kill some under the cover of the ragheads.

Obama could be pissed that he looks weak, but he does not want to be leading a military in an open war. He’s good with drone strikes and sending SOF anywhere, in secret. He has no stomach or ideology for a war with his name on it.

There may be an incident if someone makes a mistake, but no one on the planet wants a piece of Putin and his military.

And it is a series of reports from Turks, US and Israelis that electronic and radars are blocking communications and defeating US systems. So, whatever the Russians have in Syria is creating a zone of no other aircraft. It is not yet a total Syria no-fly zone. But something is in place that gives the Russians comfort and scares the hell out of the Turks, Israelis and NATO.

And the Iraqis are asking for the same help from Russia, as are the Afghanis. So, ultimately, the US is being pushed away by its clients and Russia will replace them.

There is nothing Centcom or NATO can do without clearly violating International Law. It’s out in the open. The US is being sent away.

The West may have a thousand jets. It’s meaningless. They have no one to fight with their air superiority and refused for years to take out ISIS. The notion that they can threaten and exert some pressure on Russia runs into the simple notion that Russia would go to nuclear weapons if it faced some overwhelming attack. They just demonstrated their cruise missile with conventional warheads. Imagine 26 nukes taking out US and NATO bases or carriers in response to some attack.

The Hegemon is losing its geopolitical powers. The Orthodox Crucifix nullifies the Demon.
- Anonymous on October 08, 2015 · at 6:02 am EST/EDT
  
  “They have already declared that if the Russian planes are within 20 miles the US crafts will leave the area.”
  
  I’m guessing that ’20 miles’ is not some number they made up. More likely it’s the range of the Russian Khibiny electronic warfare system. Remember the USS Donald Cook, and how the ship’s electronic systems were completely disabled by one Russian fighter plane? After which the Donald Cook ran away post haste. And supposedly most of the crew resigned at first landfall, ha ha ha.
  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Khibiny_(electronic_countermeasures_system)
  From other reports at the time, it seems that Khibiny is more than ‘countermeasures’. It wasn’t clear, but it seemed implied that the Donald Cook’s electronics didn’t work after the plane left. I’m really hoping that’s the case. As a retired electronics engineer, I recognize how far beyond conventional ECM such a capability would be. Can’t help wondering if Russia really has been pushing Scalar Wave research (or something else outside conventional physics), and made some breakthrough.
  
  I really hope so. I’ve been longing to see the defeat of the ZUSUK evil elitist monsters for a long time, and all the better if it’s a stunning and humiliating defeat. Fingers crossed that when Putin said “We can no longer tolerate the current state of affairs in the world” he wasn’t only referring to CIA-run terrorists in Syria.
  
  Saker, maybe Putin/Russia knows perfectly well the ZUSUKs will try some desperate hail mary retaliations, and that’s part of the plan? I mean, both you and I would expect that if we were in Putin’s place, and he’s probably not as dumb as us, right? :)
  
  Remember I suggested the USA’s plan in Ukraine was to get Russia to come into play, and then pull a false flag attack, making it look like Russia used a nuke on a city (or something like that)?
  Intention being, to create worldwide approval of a heavy military retaliation against Russia.
  
  What if Russia is now doing something similar (except morally cleaner)? Goading the West into making some ill-considered attack, that can be used as justification for a much wider scale house cleaning? If Russia really does have a phase-change advance in electronic warfare, they may be confident they can handle anything the West throws at them.
  
  In which case the question would be, how to start the chain of events, while definitely looking like a hero? Assad is no damsel in distress, but the Syrian mess is understood by enough people world wide to be the USA’s creation, that Russia can very easily play (and in truth be) a valiant knight riding in on a white horse there.
  
  I’m expecting everything Russia does in Syria, to be in-your-face insultingly destructive to US/Israeli desires. Banging CIA/Pentagon/Mossad fingers with hammers, metaphorically speaking. Without pause. Bring in Iran? check. Bring in Hisbahallah? check. Palestinians? check. Kill some more CIA arseholes with their pants down, by using cruise missiles hence no Centcom/satellite warning? check.
  A pie in the face for Israel next, I wouldn’t be surprised.
  - TerraHertz on October 08, 2015 · at 6:13 am EST/EDT
    
    “… pie in the face for Israel next …”
    Oops. I meant to sign that TerraHertz
    - Mulga Mumblebrain on October 10, 2015 · at 12:52 am EST/EDT
      
      Israel appears to be setting the scene for a new Intifada, which means massacres on the West Bank and more ‘mowing the grass’ in Gaza, with Palestinian dead irrelevant, while the Western Zionazi MSM weeps tears of blood over any ‘precious Jewish souls’ killed or injured. Then, quite possibly, another attack on south Lebanon. After all, decrepit, diseased, deranged and bloodthirsty as Satan-yahoo may be, he appears almost semi-human in comparison to other elements in his regime.
  - Anonymous on October 08, 2015 · at 2:24 pm EST/EDT
    
    “I’m expecting everything Russia does in Syria, to be in-your-face insultingly destructive to US/Israeli desires. Banging CIA/Pentagon/Mossad fingers with hammers, metaphorically speaking. Without pause.”
    
    The Russian Federation, its representatives and co-operators are likely not so naive as to satisfy your expectations.
    
    One of the reasons is found in the following link:
    
    /dreams-of-a-sleeping-alligator-dream-two-size-matters-and-obamas-zugzwang/comment-page-1/#comment-156065
    
    and some other reasons are to be found following the link:
    
    /putin-the-incredible-abou-ali/comment-page-1/#comment-156026
  - Victor on October 08, 2015 · at 5:35 pm EST/EDT
    
    I would agree. There are reports of Russia moving two Krasuha-4 truck-mounted radar and satellite jamming systems into Syria. This is completely new technology capable of disarming low orbit satellite signel and taking control of gps-guided missile and other weaponry. The developer of the system claims 99% reliability in stopping anything thrown at you. There are other similar systems Russia has developed and now deployed in several theatres that render an enemy virtually blind. These systems can see everything and can hide the source so that the enemy cannot take it out. And not only the Krasuha-4 – Russia’s planes are now equipped with mini-version of these devices that can hide the plane from the enemy and yet see everything around them.
    
    When Putin made his famous statement at the UN, he was announcing to the world that there is a new sheriff in town – Russia is fed up with the games that the US/Israel and their allies have been playing and is making Syria the test grounds for the world to see the new Russia.
    
    As for how the US could cut Russia off from its supply lines, I would really like to see an analysis of that. Syria is virtually in Russia’s back garden. They have the full cooperation of the Iran/Iraq governments. Their Black Sea port is just around the corner, and I doubt Turkey would have the balls to try to stop them. They have anti-ship weapons can can easily sink an American carrier – talk about being far from your home territory – look at American capability! What the hell can America do against such an opponent?
  - LongMemory on October 09, 2015 · at 12:27 am EST/EDT
    
    @Terrahertz aka anonymous
    
    You nailed it on all points; Russia has proceeded exactly as you laid out: “In-your-face” and dismissive of the stupidity of the British/America-Anglophile elements and their janitors the neocons. Didn’t Putin (UN speech) say “these people (Islamist terrorists) are not more Dumb than you (the West)…………. you cannot be sure whether it is you using them or them using you.”
    
    The operative word Putin used to describe the “leadership” of the Anglosaxon West was “Dumb”.
    
    In addition the Russian demeanor since the beginning of the strikes has been blunt assertive and not in the least bit apologetic. In addition unlike what Saker wrote, there has been a defacto no fly zone for Western aircraft over syria: since the beginning of the Russian air strikes over Syria, not a single NATO/US air strike has been registered in Syria.
    
    On the contrary to Saker’s view, I believe that Russia will increase their pressure on the West and their proxies, not decrease it.
    
    Red Ryder’s assessment is right on the mark too.
    
    To further buttress her point that Israel wouldn’t dare risk a confrontation with Russia in Syria, Netanyahu stated in an interview this Sunday on CNN that he was acutely aware that Israel now shared a border with Russia (i.e. Syria).
    - Anonymous on October 09, 2015 · at 11:45 am EST/EDT
      
      “You nailed it on all points; Russia has proceeded exactly as you laid out: “In-your-face” and dismissive of the stupidity of the British/America-Anglophile elements and their janitors the neocons”
      
      The projection of holograms is always interesting whether conscious or not.
      
      The old saying of : there is none so blind as those who do not see should probably be updated to, there is none so blind as those who see what they want to see.
      
      As to pressure it comes in many forms; continuing pressure is best facilitated by not being “In-your-face”.
      
      In your face is the “American” way which consistently appears to be a cul-de-sac.
      
      “I believe” is an indicator of ignorance and aversion to doubt.
      
      Are your assets showing?
- Anonymous on October 08, 2015 · at 11:36 am EST/EDT
  
  @RedRyder
  Much better contribution than the original one by Saker.
  “As for the Americans, they look like total idiots…
  Americans looks like imbeciles”
  Really? And if they do, they are repeating the same mistakes in foreign policy for decades. They do look funny to some of us, but the rest of the world doesn´t care.
  It ain´t over till it´s over.
- Purple Library Guy on October 08, 2015 · at 5:10 pm EST/EDT
  
  Tell me you’re not appealing to US public opinion as a reason for NOT starting a war. US public opinion sometimes sours on wars after they’ve been going a few years, but they always back them at the beginning, no matter how stupid and unjustified.
  It is to be hoped that, despite the temptations of whipping up a frenzy and riding to office on a surge of pseudo-warrior rah-rah Yew! Ess! Ay! jingoism, the politicians will be restrained from starting a hot war with Russia by the prospect of everybody on the planet dying. Chances are pretty good, but I wouldn’t call it a sure thing.
Jim of Olym on October 08, 2015 · at 3:59 am EST/EDT

glad you weren’t sleeping unconsciously. Of course alligators sleep with one eye partiusly shut, just in case, just like you.

Hope you enjoyed your one-eye rest, Saker.
We still need you and your ilk!
vot tak on October 08, 2015 · at 4:35 am EST/EDT

I can understand why zbig (I never can remember how to spell that bum bandit’s name) is upset. This covert use of proxy armies made up of fanatical “Muslim” dupes is his baby. While it worked in Afghanistan 30 years ago, watching the Russians effectively countering that strategy in Syria, especially the humiliating way the pindos are being boxed into a corner not of their choosing, has the old bum bandit irrational with impotent rage.
- The Wend on October 08, 2015 · at 12:28 pm EST/EDT
  
  вот так,
  
  you are back! (Why did you change the Cyrillic writing of your name? :))
  
  Yes, Zbigi must be angry. :)
  
  Anyway, I wanted to hear your opinion regarding yesterday’s Lukashenko’s statement that he will not allow Russians to built the military base inside Belarus. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34463901
  
  Has that something to do with today’s surprising Nobel prize for literature victory of Belarussian writer Svetlana Alexievich ?
  
  http://www.lannan.org/bios/svetlana-alexievich
  
  ” Frequently attacked by the Loukachenko regime, Alexeivitch was accused of being a member of the CIA, had her telephone bugged, and was forbidden from making public appearances. In 2000 she was provided refuge under the International Network of Cities of Asylum and now resides in Paris. ”
  ————————————–
  
  It seems to me that the West has finally managed to secure a serious opposition figure for Belarus!
  
  Whether she worked for CIA or not is besides the point.
  
  She can now be a new leader for Belarus. Just what West has needed. Someone to turn Belarus towards the path of Ukraine.
  - Scott - the Director of Research and Development on October 08, 2015 · at 1:00 pm EST/EDT
    
    The Wend
    
    I have already responded to you yesterday.
    
    /syria-sitrep-october-07th-2015-by-john-rambo/#comment-155856
    
    I told you that you’re spreading the Soros propaganda that was rebuffed.
    You don’t even have courtesy to respond to my modest request to stop spreading the Soros, BBC and Rupert Murdoch vicious propaganda.
    
    Please, seize and disease.
    - The Wend on October 08, 2015 · at 2:56 pm EST/EDT
      
      Scott,
      
      thank you for your response, I read it yesterday. Can you provide an independent news about Lukashenko denying that he doesn’t need a Russian base in Belarus?
      
      No hard feelings, but I’ve been following this blog for some time, and вот так has earned my respect because of the quality of his comments on Middle East, Charlie Hebdo, and we also discussed Belarus once, so that is why I am asking him the question.
      
      Kind regards
  - vot tak on October 09, 2015 · at 5:20 am EST/EDT
    
    The Wend
    
    Thanks for the kind words. I wouldn’t worry too much about what L says. He makes a lot of statements that sound antagonistic to Russia, and has for years. Yet Belarus remains the closest ex-USSR republic to Russia. I’m not familiar with the Nobel prize winning woman, so I don’t know what affect she could have on Belarus.
- Blondinka Florida on October 08, 2015 · at 8:19 pm EST/EDT
  
  Vot Tak,
  
  Both Zbig and McNoBrain need 2 things: 1) tube of crazy glue for the lips and 2) put on a no-fly list.
TerraHertz on October 08, 2015 · at 5:18 am EST/EDT

Did anyone else catch claims from US sources (I forget whether media or official) that ‘terrorists’ might cause nuclear tsunamis?

This is a real thing – during WWII there was research into causing tsunamis using sequenced underwater explosions of conventional explosives. Apparently it works. With nukes presumably it could work exceptionally well. Many have claimed that the Japan tsunami that broke Fukushima was nuclear induced (with the quake and crustal plate slippage being a side effect.)
See also http://www.reformation.org/nuclear-tsunamis.html

Main point though – till now the ‘nuclear tsunami’ idea has been treated like a kooky conspiracy idea by the MSM. Now suddenly there are MSM/official claims ‘terrorists’ could kill millions by causing one?

If anything, that should indicate how panicked and desperate the Zionist/Neocon/NWO types have become. They are even forgetting and contradicting their own lies.

Well gee, maybe the devastating (and useful to US interests) tsunamis in Indonesia 2004, and Japan 2011, *were* caused by terrorists after all. Those fanatical lunatics hiding out in a cave in Washington.
- Purple Library Guy on October 08, 2015 · at 5:27 pm EST/EDT
  
  There are a whole lot of scientists around the world with seismic equipment measuring the hell out of every dang earth tremor that happens. It’s pretty decentralized; I think there are even a moderate number of amateurs. I think it would be obvious to them as all get out if a particular quake was caused by a pinpoint shock like a nuclear weapon; the signature would be way different from that of a normal earthquake.
  And shutting them all up worldwide would be really tough. You could pull a stunt like that and keep the evidence mostly out of the Western mainstream media, maybe, for a while, but people like us would be seeing a lot more than just vague conspiracy rumours, we’d be seeing masses of coverage of the evidence all over the non-Western-corporate-dominated sources.
  So while it’s no doubt possible, I think we can be pretty sure it hasn’t happened yet.
Paul II on October 08, 2015 · at 6:36 am EST/EDT

Sure, but accepting Assad also means accepting defeat. It means no ISIS state, no major split of the country, no occupied Aleppo, nothing, except a Kurdish zone, which is terrible news for Turkey. So one can make the case that Russian air power is tremendously important, and is going to lead to breaking the back of the insurgency. Then the West can accept Assad, just as they will be accepting defeat.

The threat of strangling Russia in Syria is real, but it would mean WWIII or the West cutting Russia off from Western Europe in terms of trade and banking. That doesn’t seem especially likely.
- zweistein on October 08, 2015 · at 10:03 am EST/EDT
  
  Moreover Putin’s Syria surprise puts tremendous seismic stresses on the many fractures in the US power structures. ISIS – nobody seems to notice – is mostly a CIA-Mossad op., not a Pentagon op., though the US military, obviously, is forced to go along with it. The same, by the way, goes for the whole never-ending Ukraine nightmare, dreamed-up by none other then the world’s most precious fossil, Brzezinski.
  
  Therefore the Pentagon folks can’t help but feel a certain satisfaction, when CIA-operators get fried by the dozens in Takfiri command & control bunkers. Rescue missions? Counter-measures? Disarming Russia? Of course! “In a couple of weeks – or maybe months – our rapid reaction forces should be ready.”
  - Anonymous on October 10, 2015 · at 11:23 am EST/EDT
    
    “Therefore the Pentagon folks can’t help but feel a certain satisfaction, when CIA-operators get fried by the dozens in Takfiri command & control bunkers. ”
    
    So US is not the United States?
eimar on October 08, 2015 · at 9:03 am EST/EDT

Kulak,

I am even more convinced the MSF massacre in Afghanistan was a warning to ‘allies’ not to change horses mid-stream.
Seamus Padraig on October 08, 2015 · at 9:13 am EST/EDT

“We should not celebrate too early however. Brzezinski recently wrote that ‘The Russian naval and air presences in Syria are vulnerable, isolated geographically from their homeland. They could be “disarmed” if they persist in provoking the US.’ Guys, I am sorry, but he is absolutely correct!”

That would be an act of war against Russia. Highly unlikely.

Furthermore, it could be said that Russia has indeed established an effective no-fly zone over WESTERN Syria, i.e. the part that is still government controlled. Note that there have been no more Israeli airstrikes against Syria since the Russians arrived. Of course, the US could still attack ISIS in the eastern part of Syria if they wanted to, but we all know they really don’t.
bernie on October 08, 2015 · at 9:29 am EST/EDT

question: would US and allies not take out their “experienced so called moderates fighters” to safety for future use ? somewhere to Turkey or elsewhere

seem hard to believe that they would abandon their plans short even with one (hopeful) defeat
losing a battle not necessary means losing the war sort of a thing?
Are things really turning ? Is this the beginning of the downfall of the forces of evil? I sincerely hope it is !
Stavros H on October 08, 2015 · at 9:41 am EST/EDT

The idea that Putin and his top brass have sent a few dozen planes and helicopters in Syria and left it up to the NATO-ists, Zionists, Turks and Gulf-state apes whether to shoot-down or not is quite ludicrous.

Of course, the Russian forces based in and offshore Syria can easily be attacked by the Coalition of Evil, but what about the goodies that Russia has brought there (or there about) that nobody dares speak about?

I am no military expert such as The Saker or some others on this blog, but my feeling is that Russia definitely must have S-300s, probably S-400 as well, along with several other advanced A/A systems. I also think they have Iskanders over there. Yes, as we have seen, Russia can roast NATO bases from the Caspian, but why not have even more options?

Another factor in the situation is that Russia has brought there powerful radar systems than can detect NATO warplanes and drones from quite a distance. Also, we can be sure as hell that powerful means of electronic warfare are into the mix. As others have stressed, the system used against USS Donald Cook is definitely there and the Empire of Filth is scared shitless of it.

Otherwise, why would the Zionists be so conciliatory or the Turks so timid? Let alone the arch-imperialists of US/UK/Frog-land?

Oh, and one more thing. Is anyone really of the belief that Russia has not somehow deployed (or able to immediately deliver) tactical nukes onto the Syrian theater as well as littoral NATO bases? Give me a break.

The Coalition of Scum are in for a catastrophic humiliation if they try anything stupid against Russian Forces in Syria, otherwise Putin wouldn’t be sending his troops into the Jaws of Hell.

Which gets me thinking. Where would humanity be without Russia? Hitler would have won, for example. India would have been raped (almost certainly starved, as per Kissinger) by the Anglo-Imperialists in the early 70s, and what about today? Can anyone fathom the vileness of the Alliance facing off against Russia? I mean, you literally have all forms of evil in there:

a) Anglo-American predatory imperialism. Fleecing the planet for centuries.

b) Frogs, desperately trying to keep up with the Anglos in plundering other people.

c) Zionists

d) Neo-Ottoman, ISIS-supporting, scum.

e) Arabian peninsula troglodyte Kingdoms. Child-molesters, rapists, pathological misogynists (funny how western feminists never seem to complain about them) corrupt to the bone, Wahabi, terrorist-funding petro-filth.

f) Their vicious spawn of ISIS/Nusra/Insert silly CIA-created name du jour. Head-chopping, liver-eating, 75-IQ-ed savages presented as freedom fighters by the sewer that is western MSM.

Jesus Christ! My logic leads me to think that there is no God, but as things have turned out, I certainly hope he does, because if there is a God, he will be firmly behind Russia.
- Mohamed on October 08, 2015 · at 4:22 pm EST/EDT
  
  Salam Stavros H,
  
  There is God. Both Obama and Putin are cahoots. Poor, poor Netanyahu ………
  
  Rejoice,
  
  Mohamed
  - Ann on October 11, 2015 · at 7:22 am EST/EDT
    
    Mohamed…Do you think Putin and Obama are ‘consciously’ in cahoots ?
- lsammart on October 08, 2015 · at 11:49 pm EST/EDT
  
  There is God, whatever name you want to attach to it…Jesus, Allah, Spirit!
  I see the hand of God in Russia skilfully fighting back, and winning against the Empire: it has been prophetized in Catholic tradition that Russia will bring back Christianity to the western world sinking in atheism.
  - Ann on October 11, 2015 · at 7:23 am EST/EDT
    
    another very powerful name for this being is Truth.
bernie on October 08, 2015 · at 10:47 am EST/EDT

most likely the US+ allies are pulling out their “assets” to a safe place for later use I bet.
I saw a huge fireball with tail to the nW where Russia is situated, these are important sign here. it happened on his birthday. these signs are associated with the passing of a great soul or announcing a big conflict, maybe it was just a big shooting star…..
Anonymous on October 08, 2015 · at 12:08 pm EST/EDT

” “war is a mere continuation of politics by other means“

Clausewitz has been dead a while, and subsequent experience tends to the view that war is politics.

Failure to understand this on the part of the opponents have given rise to “unexpected consequences” and facilitated lateral challenge.
- Anonymous on October 09, 2015 · at 9:14 am EST/EDT
  
  “Clausewitz has been dead a while, and subsequent experience tends to the view that war is politics.”
  
  http://russia-insider.com/en/politics/syrian-war-and-russias-diplomatic-play/ri10358
  
  where as the opponents’ score seems to be missing a few notes such as incubators and diabilities
  
  http://russia-insider.com/en/politics/unnamed-us-official-thousands-orphans-dead-after-russian-missiles-fell-iran/ri10367
JJ on October 08, 2015 · at 12:08 pm EST/EDT

http://sputniknews.com/world/20151008/1028192840/us-syria-no-fly-zone.html

White House Press Secretary Josh Earnest has told journalists that Washington hasn’t ruled out the introduction of a no-fly zone in Syria in the future, but it has “indicated that it’s not something that it is considering right now”; the comment comes amid reports that Secretary John Kerry had asked his staff “to further develop the idea.”

“We’ve not been in a position to take it [the possibility of a no-fly zone in Syria] off the table or to rule it out in the future, but we have indicated that it’s not something that we’re considering right now,” Earnest told reporters on Wednesday.

© SPUTNIK/ DMITRIY VINOGRADOV
Western Media Laments as Russia Foils US Plans for No-Fly Zone Over Syria
“Even things that sound simple, like a no-fly zone, have significant consequences for longer-term strategic decisions that have to be made there,” he added.
At a separate briefing, State Department spokesman John Kirby did acknowledge, however, that the issue has been discussed.

“We continue to have discussions about how to best go after the Islamic State group and particularly there in Syria, in northern Syria in particular,” he said. “To date, there’s been no decision to move forward with a no-fly zone.”

John Kirby however declined to directly answer questions about the reports that US Secretary of State John Kerry has asked his staff “to further develop the idea.”

Read more: http://sputniknews.com/world/20151008/1028192840/us-syria-no-fly-zone.html#ixzz3nyjFYVM3

read-we know what deep **** we would get into , because we understand how we have messed up……….
SunLion on October 08, 2015 · at 12:10 pm EST/EDT

For whatever it is worth, this video is a good illustration of the primal american fear of the Russian bear. The hysteria expressed in this funny video is consistent with the current hysteria regarding Russian “aggression”…

“Bear, you are supposed to be sleeping…” says she with a screeching voice.

http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=b0b_1443705604
- Scott on October 08, 2015 · at 1:41 pm EST/EDT
  
  Thanks, SunLion
  
  Guy in Russia brings his bear to vote at a local election. Notice the reaction of the people around:
  
  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oU1oHO9Z6GI
  - Anonymous on October 08, 2015 · at 4:11 pm EST/EDT
    
    Yea, notice; esp. the lady in the gray suit blithely voting with her back to the bear. Instead of disappearing she was busy acquiring a suitable treat. I love bears.
    
    I think “alligator dreams” from Saker should remain even after he returns from the swamp as an option; we’ll all know what he means. Whereas ‘bear treats’ ….mmm.
  - Ann on October 11, 2015 · at 7:30 am EST/EDT
    
    Sorry to be the party pooper but I hate people that have wild animals muzzled and showing off in public..I feel sorry for this poor bear and I think this is an example of what’s wrong with the world today.
    
    If we really knew what the emotion of the bear was, it would probably love to kill that jerk.
    - Nussiminen on October 11, 2015 · at 8:02 pm EST/EDT
      
      Ann, I didn’t feel too happy about the bear either. Would have been more to the point pulling a vile Ukronazi punk in chains while exercising your democratic right to vote. Could even be truly enlightening to the piece of refuse, mind you.
- eimar on October 08, 2015 · at 8:49 pm EST/EDT
  
  Sunlion – He’s eating her Kayak for g’s sake!
  
  And he’s Alaskan, not Russian.
  
  Scott, totally envy that guy. Gorgeous animal, despite the undignified knitted mini-skirt.
  
  Here’s another pretty amazing Russian bear, and a beautiful looking animal too:
  
  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jqKPswqyPrc&feature=youtube_gdata_player
  
  One of the commenters was uneasy watching this until she realised the Russian was trained.
  
  I don’t think she meant the bear :O
  - Ann on October 11, 2015 · at 7:36 am EST/EDT
    
    I dont’ mind this one so much because at least the bear doesn’t have that dreadful muzzle on.
    this bear is pretty famous…here’s another one of him – Tima –
    
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nqphZBlnXUA
    - eimar on October 11, 2015 · at 7:00 pm EST/EDT
      
      Ann,
      .
      
      The bear couldn’t have been brought into a public space without being muzzled – all it would take is a young kid to waltz up and do something then – boom ! – kid is injured or worse and bear has to be put down.
      
      Re Tima
      
      I am generally against animals being trained to ‘amuse’ humans – especially animals found in the wild
      
      But Tima is a clearly happy camper. His trainer has a light, fluid interaction with him – plus food bribes of course. No signs of coercion. The man has an appreciation of the potential danger and handles him very smoothly and quickly.
      
      Tima seems to spend much of his off-time out in the open, with plenty of natural space and stimulation.
      
      He really looked like he was enjoying himself, and the dog too.
      
      Have to say, he’s a lousy trumpet player..:)
Veritas on October 08, 2015 · at 1:22 pm EST/EDT

Dear The Saker,

Had exactly the same thoughts as you on the Caspian Sea launches – surprise and also sending out a message that Russia can still attack from afar…..Yes Bzig is right they could attack Russia and then what? – do they want to start the big war?

With all these matters there is always more going on. I think one success is it is slowly showing the US and its allies for their true nature and involvement for all to see.

At the same time, the other day Russia sent attack helicopters toTaji which ties up with this:

http://sputniknews.com/asia/20151008/1028199814/isil-afghanistan-militants.html

Erdogan, thinks he can threaten Russia economically – learn from the EU about the boomerang effect:

http://tass.ru/en/politics/827230

and

Russia calls out US – which side are they fighting on?:

https://www.rt.com/news/317983-russia-us-coalition-isis/

Also, AZ’s trying to put pressure from all sides with NATO increasing troops to 40,000 and opening centres in Slovakia and Hungary (I thought these 2 countries were ok with Russia?); FIFA suspensions and Dutch and MSM ratching up MH17……and now apparently ICC looking into South Ossetian war.

Russian MofFA holding yet another press conference today disputing MSM media. They seem more on the ball these days. It is a major information war.

Rgds,

Veritas
- JJ on October 08, 2015 · at 3:34 pm EST/EDT
  
  “MOSCOW, October 8. /TASS/. It is impossible to negotiate with the Islamic State (IS) terrorist organization and the powers backing it, Russian presidential special envoy on Afghanistan, director of the Second Asian Department at the Russian Foreign Ministry Zamir Kabulov said on Thursday.
  “If we let IS go now, then the Taliban movement of the mid-1990s will just look childish. It is impossible to negotiate with these people, their ideology and those standing behind their backs. They will fight and destroy, Kabulov told an international conference on Afghanistan.
  READ ALSO
  Number of militants in Afghanistan up to 50,000 people — Russian General Staff
  Putin and Rakhmon concerned over situation in Afghanistan
  Afghanistan needs Russia’s military-technical assistance to combat terrorism — senator
  The Islamic State trains militants from Russia in Afghanistan, and among those who train them are people with US and UK passports, Kabulov noted.”
  
  MOSCOW, October 8. /TASS/. Moscow calls on London to strengthen stability in Europe, not to station troops in the Baltic States, Russian Foreign Ministry’s official spokesperson Maria Zakharova said on Thursday.
  “We talked about it many times. Steps on relocating armed forces in Europe should contribute to strengthening common European security and stability,” Zakharova said. “It is a big question whether such steps will strengthen security and why they are taken,” she added.
  “Everything connected with such actions should serve only one purpose — strengthening, not undermining stability in the region,” Zakharova stressed.
  
  © AP Photo/Czarek Sokolowski
  Lawmaker: NATO’s plans to defend Baltic States from Russian threat “theatre of the absurd”
  The fact that NATO moves its military infrastructure to Russia’s borders is regrettable and will lead to reciprocal steps, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said earlier today.
  Commenting on the statement made by UK Defense Secretary Michael Fallon on plans to send troops to the Baltic states to prevent possible provocations by Russia, Peskov said: “It is a far-fetched pretext that was voiced about the alleged threat coming from Russia. This is precisely the camouflage that NATO uses to cover up its plans to further expand toward our borders.”
  
  message is ‘ also we cannot communicate with USA, NATO, Turkey and the other players………..we’ll fire cruise missiles when we consider it legal to do so “
JWRebel on October 08, 2015 · at 1:34 pm EST/EDT

The Americans don’t just look like idiots. More important is that they have been exposed as malevolent liars.
Despite the media circus blaming the Russians for hitting the FSA (who were they again?) and the wrong terrorists (even though it is widely known that membership in brigades and alliances between them is very fluid), the Americans have been forced en plein publique to basically admit that they are not there to contain ISIS but to destroy Assad, supplying and supporting “moderate Al-Qaeda” and jihadi brigades, that is, in the middle of a “global war on terrorism” used to justify all kinds of things, the Americans are aiding and abetting if not outright creating terrorism.

This was evident the first day they bombed Syria, when they dropped more ordinance than they had the previous 30 days containing ISIS in Iraq. Where did the bombs land? Why, on Syria’s infrastructure, destroying the Syrian state and degrading the capabilities of regular army units. Just as Turkey flew 178 sorties their first day of bombing the terrorist threat, of which 175 targeting the Kurds.

Actions speak louder than words.
Mats on October 08, 2015 · at 2:07 pm EST/EDT

Just took a tour of the CNN Intl and BBC, FOX news cable outlets.

Discovered that Syria and Russia don’t know anything at all about the targets they should hit. And they should be obeying the US and NATO about what to do, how to do it.

If you want to see a situation comedy on the hour, any hour, tune in.

Listening to Stoltenberg, the anorexic civilian head of NATO (peg boy extraordinaire, it is quite obvious) is particularly hilarious. He is wound so tightly that he considers all airspace as NATO territory.

These Scandinavian stooges that front NATO have been clowns worthy of the Three Stooges. Fogh Rasmussen, midgetized moron, and Jens Stolenberg, represent the runts of litter. This is what tribal inbreeding leads to.

Amazingly, they must have doped up Breedlove who lost control of his bladder over Ukraine long ago. Haven’t seen him lately. Getting his Thorizine treatments, no doubt.
- Daniel Rich on October 08, 2015 · at 11:39 pm EST/EDT
  
  @ Mats,
  
  Q; Just took a tour of the CNN Intl and BBC, FOX news cable outlets.
  
  R; Thank you for taking a bullet for the team. I can’t do it myself, without triggering severe convulsions and itchy rash.
teranam13 on October 08, 2015 · at 2:55 pm EST/EDT

Alligator dreams: Yes, lots of movement under the radar. thanks for the cogent military analysis.

And for those who say Saker has been wrong often: yes, and he has been right also but it is how he has more or less played the game of life on this site that is as important. With Charlie Hebdo “incident” he immediately came out with a principled and correct analysis at a time when hysteria reigned and suffered the consequences for it.

Give credit where credit is due and have some standards of honor in your criticisms. I have been thinking about that concept lately. When the 85 year old Russian-American owner of the park where I live managed to mix several rent checks into discarded junk mail and had to request replacement checks from some of us, she got all sorts of hassle perhaps rightly so. As I wrote the new check I said, ” I would never not pay my rent on time -it is a matter of honor.” She smiled and said, “I know.” When I talk to some of the younger generation about honor, they just do not get it–blank faces. sigh.
anonymous 2 on October 08, 2015 · at 4:37 pm EST/EDT

When grandmasters play chess against wannabes, they play them all together by the dozens and scores. I am not even in the wannabe class, but I see the Russian operation as creating more than one zugswang, several at least, reflecting the limits of my imagination. One for the western armaments industry, another for eastern, central and northern Europe, another for US naval operations in the eastern Mediterranean and another for the major military states of the Middle East.

The cruise missiles were launched from three Buyan class, Project 21631, missile corvettes, tiny, less-than-a-1000 ton boats, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buyan-class_corvette together with a Gepard-class frigate https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gepard-class_frigate. Both vessels have been designed with export in mind. So far, Vietnam has bought four of the frigates, and Kazakstan has ordered some of the corvettes. The Russians are putting on a most impressive arms bazaar through their Syrian operations by showcasing a variety of weapons systems under combat conditions. Now, there will also be greater credibility for Russian weapons not yet demonstrated. Better performance at much lower cost than for “comparable” western products.

The cruise missiles themselves may also be mounted in typical shipping containers. See the illustration here. http://yurasumy.livejournal.com/704034.html Think about the implications of such systems being carried on the ubiquitous container ships, and also made available to whomever wants to buy. “Concealed carry” in spades. For example, China will be able to keep the US Navy out of the South China Sea, but it will have to negotiate resource exploitation with Vietnam, the Philippines, etc., if those small nations have the corvettes, containers and missiles (export version range 300 km), or risk serious disruption to its own commercial activity. So, these small nations will be drawn into the SCO to settle their disputes just as have India and Pakistan, together with the lure of the “new silk road.” https://deepresource.files.wordpress.com/2015/04/iron_silk_road.jpg

The shallow-draft, narrow-beam Buyan corvettes are able to cruise the whole internal waterway system of western Russia from the Black Sea to the Caspian Sea, to the Baltic Sea and the White Sea and cover most of eastern, central and northern Europe, not to mention the eastern Mediterranean and much of the Middle East as far south as Egypt and Saudi Arabia, with almost 3000 km range cruise missiles potentially armed with tactical nuclear war heads. Europeans are being faced with a severe dilemma about being a forward operating base for the USA.

Russia is playing to the rest of the world, which will accept that Russia’s aid to Syria at Assad’s request is fully compliant with International Law, whereas a similar weapons capability demonstration in the Ukraine would have been broadly judged as illegal aggression. The rest of the world will now be convinced of official Russia’s essential innocence in the Ukraine, and, given the admission by several leading political figures in the USA that Russia is attacking US agents and allies in their war against Syria, and also given that the takeover of the Crimea was peaceful with no shots fired, the rest of the world will have no more time for US and western European hypocrisy in their accusations against Russia over the Ukraine. Even the Poles are now collecting “humanitarian” aid for the rebels in eastern Ukraine.

This is one of the classic marketing coups of all time.
- Anonymous on October 09, 2015 · at 10:06 am EST/EDT
  
  “This is one of the classic marketing coups of all time.”
  
  Perhaps an over-exageration – how about we hold these truths to be self-evident?
  
  “When grandmasters play chess against wannabes”
  
  Some opponents may be trying to play chess though, but its such a simple game – Ask Gary Kasparov.
teranam13 on October 08, 2015 · at 5:23 pm EST/EDT

@ Saker the dreaming alligator: My non political friend loves your alligator–such an organic metaphor tying the waters of the collective unconsciousness to the grounding of earth while keeping in contact by dreaming, and she quotes this from the native american tradition

“Gator medicine people refrain from passing judgement until they have examined all the facts and seen all sides of any situation. It may be time to drop opinions and judgements so that the present situation can be fully understood. Gator might have surfaced in the river of your life to tell you to digest the situation at hand before making any rash moves. You could also be dealing with someone who is too serious or rigid. If this is the case, embrace your flexibility, knowing that you are expanding beyond your former limits, even if others are wallowing in their self-created quicksand.”

Sounds like this metaphor links maybe the personal and impersonal situation on the planet.
Anonymous on October 08, 2015 · at 6:53 pm EST/EDT

If it’s any consolation to America, Barack Obama can go back to his weekly Kill List and bomb some more hospitals in Afghanistan, like the recent American bombing of the Doctors without Borders clinic in Kunduz, Afghanistan.

Like his beloved “mentor,” Zig. Brzesinki, Barry Obama needs to restore his sense of manliness after this latest humiliation. And bombing an Afghan hospital (or wedding party) may do just the trick for America’s current War Criminal in Chief, .
Daniel Rich on October 08, 2015 · at 10:10 pm EST/EDT

@ The Saker,

Q; In conclusion I would say that at least so far, this move is nothing short of brilliant and that in just a few days Russia has achieved amazing results.

R; Russia has achieved whatever is has achieved, militarily [thus far]. The ultimate outcome may be politically and economically, but this is not a bodyguard flexing his muscles, this is a whole detail taking down a perp.

Yes, there will be some ‘Allah is Great’ screamers left, when the dust has finally settled, but by including all major players in the region [fill in a list with everything the US departments detests in the ME], a solid foundation has been cemented, one that neither FUKUS or the Apartheid State can ignore.

The mop-up will continue for a considerable time to come, but Europe will be next to bleed out, when all the chickens come home to roost and live out their Post Traumatic Syrian Disorder [PTSD].
Petri Krohn on October 08, 2015 · at 10:42 pm EST/EDT

Ukraine and Syria are one war, two fronts. If the West threatens Russia in Syria, Russia can escalate in the Ukraine. I wrote this on September 28. (Some more chess terminology.)

Putin’s Chess Game on Ukraine and Syria

Russia’s position was very weak at the start of the Ukraine Crisis. It controlled nothing of importance by which it could threaten or coerce the West. It could not close the Danish Straits for Western traffic. Nor the Bosporus. It could not cut the US out of SWIFT or the international credit marker. Russia could not block SouthStream, NordStream or Ukrainian gas transits.

Everything Russia COULD do amounted to shooting itself in the foot; it would be advancing Western and US geopolitical aims. Russia could use its “Gas Weapon” and cut gas from Europe — and lose its main market to US LNG. It could cut Siberian flight for Western airlines — and lose money. It could send tanks to Kiev and be labeled an aggressor and be isolated from Europe for the next 50 years, at the same time guaranteeing a perpetual US occupation of Europe.

The only reasonable thing Russia could do in response to Western provocations was covertly strengthening Donbass and the Novorossiyan Armed Forces. Now this strategy is paying off. In Syria Russia has now “double checked” (chess term) the West. Pepe Escobar correctly points out the two threats; which ever way the West moves, it is still “checked”.

Most importantly Russia has now pinned down the West in Ukraine with Minsk 2.0. Neither Russia nor Novorossiya need Minsk 2.0. Ukraine is already militarily defeated. Europe now needs peace in Ukraine. The West can thus no longer threaten Russia with Ukraine. Russia now has the initiative. Which makes the situation a “triple check”.

Escalation Dominance
(Update September 30)

What makes the Russian position so strong is that Russia now has “escalation dominance” in Ukraine. Kiev has lost the war twice. It can gain nothing by escalation. The situation is very different from what it was in the spring of 2014: the West can no longer pressure Russia through Ukraine.

How To Manage Putin: Russia’s ‘Escalation Dominance’ – February 05, 2015

What troubles some experts about the Ukraine crisis is a phenomenon called “escalation dominance.” The term was coined by U.S. military and national security experts who developed the strategy of deterrence during the Cold War. The concept holds that the United States can best contain conflicts and avoid escalation if it is dominant at each successive rung up the “ladder of escalation,” all the way to the top rung of nuclear weapons. Such a doctrine, based in balance-of-power calculations, is important because that’s how former KGB operative Vladimir Putin and his tight circle of military hardliners and spies seem to think.

As the Obama administration and European allies have responded to Russian provocations with ever tighter economic sanctions, they have capitalized on their escalation dominance in the economic sphere. The Russian economy is increasingly isolated and all but crippled. Yet Putin continues to escalate the crisis militarily to applause from a majority of Russians, because he has taken the measure of NATO and apparently decided that in the military sphere at least he has escalation dominance.

“We seem to have forgotten that even a weaker state with much more at stake in a given region and conflict can have ‘escalation dominance’ far out of proportion to its relative power, and that’s especially true if it’s a major nuclear weapons state like Russia,” said Dmitri Simes, president of the Center for the National Interest and a Russian expert. Those who advocate supplying Ukraine with lethal weapons hope to increase Russian casualties and raise the pain for Putin until he backs down and abandons the rebels, he notes, but it could very well have the opposite effect of provoking Putin to double down once again and escalate the military crisis further. “The West needs to understand that this is a very dangerous situation that could turn Russian into a hostile nuclear power for the foreseeable future, and lead to nuclear brinksmanship every bit as dangerous as the Cuban missile crisis.”

Can the US escalate in Ukraine by ordering Kiev to attack?
(Response to a reader question)

Russia was militarily strong in Ukraine, weak in Syria. Besides, Russian action in Ukraine was limited by international law. Russia could not enter Ukraine, as this would have lead to an American escalation in Syria, one that Russia would have been unable to counter.

Now Russia is strong enough in Syria. The US cannot respond on the Ukrainian front, as that is where Russia is and has always been militarily stronger.

If Russia comes into conflict with the US in Syria, then the gloves are off in Ukraine too. Russia will no longer be hindered from overtly supporting Novorossiya, maybe taking over Kiev too. Also, the Minsk agreement can be interpreted as approving Russian intervention if it is unilaterally broken by Kiev. If it expires on January 1st, without a permanent agreement on autonomy Russia will have free hands to act.
woogs on October 08, 2015 · at 11:10 pm EST/EDT

Defense Secretary Ashton Carter said today that he expects Russis to begin taking casualties in the next few days. Now that’s a pregnant comment if ever there was one.
Anonymous on October 09, 2015 · at 12:25 am EST/EDT

Fairly good (excellent?) analysis as always.
Anonymous on October 09, 2015 · at 6:09 am EST/EDT

I really think Saker.. is half right and half Wrong.. The Cruise Missiles attacks of Russia was exactly
a show of Russia to proof the west cannot disarm Russia..that Russia can hit any military operation in Syria from the caspian sea.. How is Brzezinski the idiot right? how can NATO “disarm” Russia without starting world war 3? I think Saker should try harder and think the next time before claiming
that NATO can “disarm Russia”. because that will be world war 3..and that will require that NATO
start attacking Russian planes ,and Russia can retaliate.. and take the fight to the US 5th fleet close to IRAN.. there is many ways Russia can really punch US and the coalition to really create a world crisis
and force a political solution ,demanding Obama to stop the war..

Saker whenever you do any analizing of Syria or Ukraine conflict you ignore the power that
public opinion can have in avoiding wars. You are wrong in Russian intentions.. Russia simply
will not allow Syria to fall without a fight.. and if US or NATO attacks Russia it will make things easier
because the war will stop being proxy and will become direct.. Again saker you really missed the boat in this report.. World Opinion matters dude.. and all that Russia needs to do to stop the war
is shot down a few american planes in self defense ..in case they start a no fly zone.. and will force
all world powers to sit at the table.. and World Opinion can significantly influence the direction that
the European Union will take… Already the EU is calling for lifting sanctions on Russia.. In short
you cannot disarm Russia ,and it was the Cruise missile attack from caspian sea a signal to the west about that. THis is like strike 2 or strike 3 for Saker in reports about world politics.
- anonymous 2 on October 09, 2015 · at 12:43 pm EST/EDT
  
  The cruise missile demonstration, with every strike recorded in HD by drones hovering in anticipation, was a game changer, and a response to Brzezinski that there are two sides to “isolation and vulnerability.” Four interceptors and an old cruiser with SAMs may seem too little to enforce a no-fly zone against a Nato/Israeli air armada. However, when the Russian Navy can take out every airbase in eastern and central Europe, in Turkey, in Israel and any carrier group in the eastern Mediterranean without leaving its own territorial waters, how does one risk marshalling such an armada. Clearly, there is more to enforcing a no-fly zone than just the numbers of interceptors and SAMs.
FromSerbia on October 09, 2015 · at 1:14 pm EST/EDT

As far as your foreword to the analysis, concluding with this line – “Oh, I am not saying that the Russians are lying the way the Americans always do, only that there is a lot that they are not saying”

All warfare is based on deception? Sure seems like it.
Lisbeth Salander on October 09, 2015 · at 3:29 pm EST/EDT

Hey guys, can realize how the contiguous brain washing by the media made the people silly ?
US officials and some reporters claimed in the last hours that Russian some missiles failed and fallen inside Iran before to hit Syria…
So I think the military officials just wanted to make Russians to know
they monitored the activity inside Iran, on the border with Iraq…
The reporters instead really seems to believe the Russian cruise missiles are low quality stuff and missed fuel before to hit the targets. They seems to believe in the BS themselves say.
Even if it is possible, they does not connect the facts in any way in their minds… what delusional imbeciles. They does not cogitate that Russians targeted exactly the places where they think
the missiles fallen.
- Anonymous on October 11, 2015 · at 5:15 pm EST/EDT
  
  “So I think the military officials just wanted to make Russians to know
  they monitored the activity inside Iran”
  
  Unlikely as this has been known since the 1970’s at least.
  
  “They seems to believe in the BS themselves say.”
  
  Some do, but a more instructive pusuit lies in analysing framing irrespective of “content”.
  
  “Even if it is possible, they does not connect the facts in any way in their minds…”
  
  They have been trained and are regularly encouraged not to do so.
  
  Not all of course – US is neither a, nor the, United States – and the opponents are not restricted to inhabitants of the United States but include to some degree us.
Mulga Mumblebrain on October 10, 2015 · at 12:15 am EST/EDT

I fully agree that placing psychopaths like the US elite in a zugzwang is highly dangerous. It reminds me of chess game years ago between Korchnoi and Petrosian. Apparently they loathed each other (I would tend to sympathise with Petrosian given Korchnoi’s subsequent behaviour)and at some stage, when one of the combatants was in a tricky situation, (whether a zugzwang I do not know)he kicked over the table and the two proceeded to wrestle on the floor. The USA, particularly under the control of its neo-conservative Zionazi Fifth Column, is a very dangerous beast, like a rabid dog being backed into a corner.
- Anonymous on October 10, 2015 · at 10:55 am EST/EDT
  
  “I fully agree that placing psychopaths like the US elite in a zugzwang is highly dangerous.”
  
  The salient questions continue to be – Does a drowning man suit your purpose?
  If not, how to drown a drowning man with the minimum of blowback?
  
  The world is laterally dynamic so some are not playing chess.
  
  The lateral questions are what are the advantages to be derived from “psychopaths like the US elites”, and how to facilitate these.
  
  Or perhaps you haven’t noticed, unlike some of the opponents?
  - Mulga Mumblebrain on October 11, 2015 · at 2:47 am EST/EDT
    
    Is that you Slavoj? Lateral thinking was all the rage, twenty years ago, Edward de Bono a real star of gab-fests. Me, I try to think in four dimensions at least unless I’m contemplating ‘string theory’. Pushing on a piece of string is intensely frustrating, as the Zionazis are discovering, both economically and geo-politically.
    - Anonymous on October 11, 2015 · at 12:47 pm EST/EDT
      
      “Pushing on a piece of string is intensely frustrating”
      
      Not to some.
      
      Pushing on string illustrates method and system inefficiences, at least to lateral thinkers, as do the concept of n.
Sue on October 11, 2015 · at 2:58 am EST/EDT

The Americans and Russians are being directed by larger elites who want them to destroy each other. U.S. pretends to bomb ISIS but in fact armed, trained, and equipped them. WW3 is the goal. Order out of chaos. Duh.
Jalaluddin on October 16, 2015 · at 3:27 pm EST/EDT

Maybe if Vlad is “disarmed” in Syria on Monday he will be in Kyev on Tuesday.

Maybe the Aegis system is not working well, as appears from the USS Donald Duck episode.

Maybe Vlad has something else up his sleeve, after all he probably has quite a few Spanish air traffic controllers working for him.

The Russians also dropped in on Berlin some time back and riffled through the Reichstag files.

Lots of imponderables upon which to ponder – leave Vlad to figure out what to do.