by Ghassan Kadi for The Saker Blog
It is hard to say if Erdogan is running out of choices, friends, time, or all of the above; and his stands on various issues and the contradictions he ploughs through are making his situation increasingly untenable.
For the benefit of readers who haven’t heard this before; Erdogan is juggling being a Turkish Muslim reformer who parades under the photos of Turkish secular anti-Muslim nation-builder Mustafa Kemal; an EU-aspiring member and also an aspiring global Sunni leader; an ally of Israel as well as Hamas; an Islamist who is also at odds with the Wahhabi Islamists; a nationalist Turk who wants to curb Kurdish aspirations not only in Syria and Iraq but also in Turkey; a Sunni leader who wants to restore the Sultanate and Caliphate and the fundamentalist Sunni version of anti-Shiite Islam but is also a friend of Shiite Iran; a NATO member with a special relationship with America, and a special friend and ally of Russia.
Ironically, despite all the contradictions and conflicts of interest, he has thus far managed to get away with wearing not only all those hats, but also turbans and fezzes in between. Clearly however, this maneuvering cannot last forever and, sooner or later, he is going to end up painted into a tight corner. I certainly would like to believe that he is already in this space.
Erdogan however believes that he has a mandate from God. Following his November 2015 election win, in an article titled “Erdogan the Trojan Horse of Terror” (https://10.16.86.131/erdogan-the-trojan-horse-of-terror/), I wrote: “With this win, Erdogan felt invincible. For an Islamist, and this is what Erdogan is, feeling invincible takes on a whole new meaning.
This is a simplistic translation of a Quranic verse: “If God is by your side, no one can defeat you” (Quran 3:160).
Erdogan believes he is invincible because he believes that he is on a mission and that God is by his side. If he had any reason to doubt this divine role he believes he has, the November election results put that doubt to rest.”
Ironically, Erdogan is able to comprehend the contradictions of others. Whilst America for example does not give two hoots about the Syrian Kurds and is only using some vulnerable leaders to dig a wedge between the Syrian Government and the Syrian Kurdish population, Erdogan has most vehemently stated to both the Obama and Trump administrations that America cannot be an ally of Turkey and the Kurds at the same time.
Yet, this same Erdogan justifies for himself the supplying of Idlib terrorists with state-of-the-art weaponry to attack not only Syrian Army units with, but also the Russian Hmeimim Air Base. The Russians have thus far thwarted countless attempted drone attacks on the base, and if Turkey did not directly supply the weapons, it definitely facilitated their transport.
Remember that the Idlib area that is controlled by Tahrir al-Sham (formerly known as Al-Nusra) lies between the Syrian-Army controlled area and the Turkish border. It has an open highway to Turkey where all arms and fighters move freely from Turkey into Syria.
And even though Erdogan has signed an agreement with Russia to end the terrorist presence in Idlib, according to veteran Palestinian journalist Abdul Bari Atwan, he does not want to understand why Russia is fed up with him and his antics and why President Putin is refusing to meet with him. In his article written in Raialyoum https://www.raialyoum.com/index.php/لماذا-يرفض-بوتين-لقاء-قمة-مع-اردوغان-لح/, Atwan argues that the Russians refuse Erdogan’s call for a new disengagement negotiation meeting and that Turkey must adhere to the existing Sochi agreement; which it has broken on several occasions by Erdogan.
Atwan adds that:
Firstly: “the Turkish gamble and reliance on Syrian opposition and the Free Syria Army in particular have failed because those forces abandoned their positions and the Syrian Army entered the towns of Khan Sheikhoun and Maarra Al-Numan unopposed without suffering a single casualty
Secondly: The 12 Turkish surveillance posts that were established in the Idlib district have turned into a liability because seven of them are under siege by the Syrian Army with a hundred Turkish soldiers trapped in each and can easily be destroyed by the Syrian Army in case Turkey launches a major offensive against Syria.
Thirdly: Russian support to the Syrian Army has reached an unprecedented level after the Russians shot down two drones launched by Tahrir Al-Sham yesterday” (ie the 10th of February 2020).
In addition, according to Atwan, “Erdogan missed a golden opportunity when he refused the (recent) Iranian initiative proposed to him by Iranian FM, Zarif, to find a political resolution for the impasse with Syria, and this was perhaps the last opportunity to reach a diplomatic resolution before a direct open confrontation with Syria”
In a Financial Times article titled “Testing Times for Erdogan and Putin” https://www.ft.com/content/cbe31640-4726-11ea-aeb3-955839e06441, the author is a tad short of saying that the relationship between Erdogan and Putin is irreconcilable. According to him, “If Turkey’s president Recep Tayyip Erdogan was looking for a way to convey his anger at Russia over the death of eight of his country’s troops in Syria, a visit to Ukraine provided the perfect opportunity.
At a guard of honour at the presidential palace in Kyiv on Monday, Mr Erdogan shouted “Glory to Ukraine”, a nationalist slogan deeply associated with anti-Russia sentiment and the country’s fight for independence after the collapse of the Soviet Union.
His carefully chosen words — to an army battling Russia-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine — were a clear rebuke to President Vladimir Putin”.
In all of this, what Erdogan needs more than anything, is a long-coming reality check, and it seems more forthcoming than ever.
He may believe that he is a president for life who deserves the purportedly one thousand room palace he built for himself. He may hope to rebuild the Ottoman Empire and resurrect the Caliphate. He may imagine that, having been able to build up the Turkish economy to a level that has earnt a position in the G20, he has become the leader of a super power; but he has not. Turkey is at best a regional power, but it is only powerful if it has more powerful friends and allies to back it up. For as long as Turkey has to literally beg the Russians and/or the Americans to buy state-of-the-art weapons to defend itself with, then it is not in a position that allows it to stand on its own feet; not in the manner that Erdogan wishes it to stand. He should take heed and look at history. Mehmet Al-Fatih built his own guns to breakdown the defence walls of Constantinople. Even though the engineer who built them was from the Balkans, but they were Mehmet’s guns and they were the biggest in the world at the time.
I am not advocating that Erdogan should build his own nuclear arsenal, fighter jets and defence and attack missiles. In the ideal world, no one should. But to add to his list of contradictions, if Erdogan wants to wear the Turban of the Sultan, huff and puff at Russia, he cannot be riding Don Quixote’s donkey at the same time.
And if he thinks that he can now make a U-turn and be the loyal NATO leader and dump Russia, he will find himself again facing the same impasse he had with the Americans over the Kurdish issue. Furthermore, what will this do to his trade deals with Russia and his gas supplies?
And if Erdogan also thinks that America would come forward to save him in Idlib, one would have to remember that the illegal American presence in North East Syria is hundreds of kilometres away from Idlib and separated by the Russian-backed Syrian Army. Why would America, even Trump’s America, risk a confrontation with Russia to save his hide?
Erdogan has thus far evaded Karma because he has been hedging his bets in all directions, working up his enemies and allies against each other. But unless one is powerful enough to stand on his own feet when he needs to, then such a strategy in the long run can only leave one with no friends, a long list of enemies and a hoard of untrusting onlookers.
Above all, what do Turkish people want from the Turkish presence in Syria? Turkey hasn’t been at war for a whole century. The leader that once promised “zero problems” with neighbours is digging in his heels and seems determined to engage in an all-out war with Syria. The average Turkish citizen may ask why and to what end?
Erdogan has hopefully finally wedged himself into a corner that he cannot weasel his way out of without losing face. He will either have to bolster his military presence in Syria and fight the Syrian Army and Russia, or back off. If he takes the former option, he will not find any international supporters, and possibly the support of his own people will become questionable. But if the psychopathic, megalomaniac feels that he has to retreat, he will be scrambling for a face-saving exit, and the options are running out.
Russia was prepared to put the deliberate Turkish downing of the Su-24 in November 2015 behind and move forward. A lifeline was given to Erdogan back then, based on the promises he made and the later agreements he signed. But time proved that he was only looking for buying time, and that window with Russia is up.
Body bags have already been sent to Turkey and there are unconfirmed figures of how many Turkish soldiers have been killed defending Al-Nusra fighters. What is pertinent here is that, in the event of an all-out war with Syria, Syrians will be fighting an existential battle, aided by Russia and regional allies. Turkey however, will be fighting a different type of existential battle; one for Erdogan, not for Turkey itself.
Turkey has no reason for having a military presence and fight in Syria. It is only Erdogan’s ego and dreams that do.
Erdogan’s military has shown little staying power. They have gotten used to putting proxies in the front lines, first FSA rebels, then AQ, now Uyghurs and al Nusra terrorists. Confronting Syrian Army is quite different than fighting the Kurds. Until recently, the Kurds have rarely had heavy equipment, tanks and big artillery. The Syrians come with two air forces, theirs and Russia’s, Hezbollah, and other Iranian militias, and when close to Iraq, Iraqui PMF militias.
His military knows the calculus. They are not going to fight for a few miles of Syrian turf when Russia and Syria will seal the border for them against the Kurds anyway. And the Turks don’t want to die protecting takfiris who are paid better than they are by the same paymaster.
Fanaticism has short legs. It cannot go fast or far. Erdogan has no leverage. Defying Putin in Libya and in Idlib is doubling down on stupid. Insulting Russia in Ukraine is bad manners.
The Russian leverage over the Turkey economy is massive. Just stopping tomatoes from being imported to Russia has a huge impact. Tourism restrictions would be catastrophic to the Emperor.
Breaking from the Sochi agreement over Idlib is truly third rate behavior by Erdogan.
Ultimately, the Kurds will play a role in Erdogan’s future status. The Syrian Kurds are moving away from the US and gravitating to the Russians for protection. This means that the entire Turkey-Syria border will be guaranteed by Putin and Russia, not Erdogan or the US/NATO.
So, short term, Erdogan can take in all the terrorists and move them to Libya, release them to Europe, send them whatever homeland from whence they came, or he can help bury their remains after the Russians and Syrian kill them all, which is the battle plan.
Meanwhile, 700,000 more refugees are heading to Turkey from Idlib. This is because the Turks did not de-escalate in the zones the Sochi Agreement marked.
All Erdogan’s problems are of his own making. And his future is, more so now than ever, in doubt. He is designing his own overthrow, for surely, the military, the Intel services and the business leaders of Turkey will not support his vainglorious actions that sabotage domestic stability and external commercial and trade arrangements.
Just ask this question: who is Erdogan’s friends in the region? Qatar and al Nusra. They can do nothing good for him.
Erdogan has become a speed bump in the final battle for Idlib.
It would not be the first time that an Adventurer of a Politician has sparked a larger war in order to salvage his own existence. I think that this is what Erdogan will try to do.
Dangerous times ahead.
Agree. Note Bibi hanging on for dear life and provoking Iran by bombing their depots near Damascus so a war will start and he can’t be deposed
Syria and Libya as hotspots Turkey is involved in have the capacity in and of themselves to start a major war, with Turkey against not only Haftar and Assad but also Cyprus and Lebanon, Greece and possibly Israel, Bulgaria, and Serbia as well. Not sure about Russia and Iran. And who would be on Erdogan’s side in such a war? That may have surprising answers.
@EOE, actually many people may or do not realize that Hellas is a strong Haftar’s supporter. Haftar’s Minister of defense graduated from Hellenic military academy and is fluent in Greek. This is yet another reason why Erdo is jumping up and down with regards to Libya. Unfortunately for Erdo as far as Libya is concerned Egypt and Hellas are “partners” against him (Erdo). Not to mention Russia which is training Haftar’s people as well. This is also the reason why Western EU is trying to prevent Haftar from winning the Libyan conflict which would stop the cheap oil flowing to Western EU. Haftar is already making his moves by stopping the oil flow. The West is stuck as Russia will not support any Western aggression against Haftar (this is why Putin put Medvediev on presidential chair before so he (Putin) would not be blamed for what had happened, which he (Putin) expected to happen).
All good points sir about Greece, and Egypt too, which is also against Turkish adventurism.
Larchmonter:
“Defying Putin in Libya and in Idlib is doubling down on stupid.”
You underestimate Erdogan’s utter idiocy. Erdogan is a dumb bast*rd, he’s egotistical, an evil snakish Islamist whose only redeeming qualities are his his greed and corruptibility. Yes, you know he’s a special type of lowlife when being greedy and corruptible are his redeeming qualities: this is because, it’s only these two qualities (bad qualities) that act as a restriction or moderator on his murderous Islamist impulses and megalomania.
Erdogan is on the hitlist with the West, he’s on the Chinese hitlist, he’s on India’s hitlist, now if he double crosses Putin, he’ll be on Russia’s hitlist and that will be the end of him. It takes a special type of stupid to make enemies with every major power pole on the globe (ie.: the West, Russia, India, China). Add to that the he’s regionally despised by both Iran, Saudi Arabia and Israel and he’s ineptness is in full display.
He’s only topped by the U.S. congress and military so his life expectancy has great potential.
Larchmonter445
Erdogan has two problems. He is living in the present, but cannot forget the past, namely the Ottoman Empire, which he wants o resurrect by joining the EU, which of course has turned him down.
He is relying too much on the Turkish military, which has shown its self incapable of even defeating the Kurds in Turkey. The quality and moral of his military is questionable. A Turk from a rich family can avoid military service by paying an exoneration tax. This of course means that the military is made up of recruits from the lower, poorer classes, who are being asked to fight for the country. To use an old phrase, the poor are being asked to fight a rich mans war. I watched their performance on the Internet when they entered Syria. The moment the Kurds opened up, the Turkish troops turned around and fled, a tribute to their fighting spirit and moral.
Finally, Erdogan is playing the old political card of looking towards both the East and West, hoping to gain profit from both and turning both against each other for his benefit. Laughable. Nobody is falling for that. What he should have done after that coup d’etat against him was analyze the situation and set up his future priorities, namely turning towards the Euro-Aasian Economic Union and departing NATO. He has not done so, taking the risk of having both the East and West turning against him.
@BF Erdo has not departed from nato and will not be kicked out any time soon as he is useful. This is why there is more noise about some “article” and the need to support the “member under aggression”.
Great comment. Thanks
Erdogan has not lost his USA nukes. They’re still on Turkish soil.
That’s the acid test right there. Everything else is just Mossad Autism coming out of Tel-Aviv.
Erdogan made a deal IMHO, back when the USA last tried to pull a coup on him, he was smart enough then to make a ‘deal’, a deal where he would play good-cop/bad-cop around the region as the USA dictated, in return he kept his nukes and his life.
The 50 B061 nuclear bombs stored at Incirlik AFB are not Turkey’s.
The US stores bombs and other nuclear munitions in Italy, Germany, Japan, South Korea and other nations’s bases, but the “owner” and “operator” is the USA.
Should Turkey attempt to take possession, US special forces would utterly destroy the interlopers.
B-61 and other versions of US nukes are not gifted to others. They are imposed on them and always under US control.
L445
“Should Turkey attempt to take possession, US special forces would utterly destroy the interlopers.”
I strongly suspect the usa pulled their nuke stash in Turkey out some time ago. Probably soon after the failed gulen coup. That’s what I would have done. They are not really necessary there and more of a liability, regardless the real Turk-american/nato relation.
As for u.s. special forces causing grief, inside Turkey, or any other country the usa might be stationing its nuke assets in, the grief would be mostly in the families of said special forces…
And US nukes at Volkel airbase in the Netherlands and one in Belgium.
I am reminded of one Ali Abdul Saleh of Yemen – formerly, he manouvered and manipulated for years. He ended up with a bullet in his head.
I think Erdogan will likely acquire nukes. That to me seems likely to the end-result of his megalomania.
And a bit of stereotyping to boot! ” he has thus far managed to get away with wearing not only all those hats, but also turbans and fezzes in between”
(Removed – no attacking the author. Mod.)
” if Erdogan also thinks that America would come forward to save him in Idlib….”
That alone is a ridiculous idea- One would wonder why it would even be suggested except as a straw man to be torn down by the author.
That thought wouldn’t, IMO, cross the minds of the Turkish leadership- understanding full well the fickle ways of America.
Erdogan made statements like this as well
https://www.dailysabah.com/politics/2020/02/04/erdogan-russian-attack-on-turkish-military-in-idlib-violation-of-sochi-deal
” Erdogan: “We will discuss everything, but not with anger”
“We cannot overlook these (strategic partnerships with Russia). That is why we will sit down and discuss
everything (with Russia). Not in anger since it would only bring harm,” Erdoğan said.
In 2018 the Astana Trio signed an agreement to open the M4 and M5 highways- and they did.
There were disagreement on the what, where and who of it all, but in the end the highways are opening and trade can commence including in the bigger silk road picture.
Other way around, Erdogan is rescuing the CIA merc’s that are trapped in Idlib
Erdogan is working for Uncle Schmuel in DC-London-TelAviv
Both the Russians and the Iranians must be really regretting saving this clowns life when the coup attempt happened. Hind sight is 20/20.
I’m really not sure about that – to me it resembles Hillary vs Trump question. An American proxy would probably be worse off overall.
“An American proxy would probably be worse off overall.”
Yup. An israeloamerican proxy would be much worse.
BraveNewWorld
The Russians made no mistake. Had Erdogan been overthrown, a CIA puppet would have been installed.
Things are has clear cut as explained in this forum.
There are vested powers in the region to bring everything together its called “Greater Israel” aka The Yinon Plan.
The people who killed Solemani did so because he opposed the “New Order” for the region. An order paid for by China ( “Silk Road” ) and managed by Israel.
Given that Erdogans son has been selling stolen Iraq/Syrian oil ( for $15/barrel ‘super bargain’) to Israel for some 7+ years I would say that Erdogans family has some very deep ties to “Greater Israel”. Just like the Clintons all these elite players intend to keep their kids, and their kids “In the Game”.
You publish utter fiction and offer no facts to support the fantasy.
“An order paid for by China ( “Silk Road” ) and managed by Israel.”
Complete fantasy fiction.
Please, changing your comments’ name fools no one. You are obsessed with these pipe dreams. It’s tiresome.
NWIA, look at a map:
Anatolia has the most direct rail link between SW Asia and Europe.
All that Israel has is some Mediterranean coastline which Lebanon, Egypt and Syria also share…and land transit through those neighbors to Africa or Europe.
Egypt has the Suez Canal and that is obviously THE best connection point in the area between The Maritime Silk Road and the OBOR Over Land Silk (Rail) Road network.around Sinai, for containers to go off ships and onto rail cars and vice-versa.
Me thinks that China offers Israel a PEACE and a Piece of the Action nevertheless, to entice them to get out of the “Sow Chaos & Destruction Among Your Neighbors” mindset.
Win-Win-Win
The only loser would be Miles Mathis and his “Your Resistance Is Futile” Zio-Poison.
Lay off it for a while. You’ll feel better, and Do Less Psychological Harm…..to yourself…and others.
https://www.beltandroad.news/
This is China’s HK Silk-Road website, use their search algo for “Israel”, you will see that there is some $250 Billion USD investment to date in Israel for Silk-Road, Israel is to be the Western BridgeHead of the Silk-Road.
Why do people work so hard? Port Ashdod exists, so does Haifa; China paid Israel $10Billion USD for both to develop ‘deep water ports’ the largest and deepest in the region, in return China promises to protect Israels Nuclear Navy at the ports, all air power and policing to protect Israel assets to be paid and manned by Chinese PLA stationed at the ports.
https://www.beltandroad.news/2019/11/30/israel-a-chinese-bridgehead/
Stop trolling this post with different names. Mod.
Quite often people are posting comments with a big fat lie embedded with a few truths in order to raise the acceptance of the lie. We just gotta expose them as they come along.
Thanks, Ghassan Kadi, for this analysis, it seems very true to this moment in time.
I have been one of the more patient observers with Erdogan among commenters, often saying how I have admired his ability to juggle the different positions he holds simultaneously. But with the liberation of the northwest now happening as we speak, it does seem possible that Erdogan has misjudged the tide of history.
He sailed on the cross-currents to become more valuable to both Russia and the US at the same time – no small accomplishment. But now the tide seems to be carrying him past the open mouth of the safe harbor, and out into the dangerous open sea.
It will be tragic for him if he makes a fatal mistake at this time – if he allows hubris to carry him forward. I don’t think it’s been hubris to date that has guided him, I think it’s been the cold calculation of a very seasoned politician. And I have always felt that he had room to play his game, until now.
He may have miscalculated, or even worse, ceased calculating at all, as you suggest.
But what will become of him?
Time will tell. Thanks for your regular supportive comments
Erdogan threatening Syria to pull back (retreat) by March, seems quite silly to me, I would think rather it offers Syria a reason to push forward as hard as possible.
The Turks have been sending massive armed convoys over the border into Syria,its either bluff or they really are looking for a show down with SAA,i just hope Russia backs the Syrians all the way if that showdown takes place,those convoys should have been hit from the air a long time ago,also i hope the Russians have supplied Syria with some of those TOS-1s because they should incinerate those turkish invaders on the ground they occupy.
Don’t worry about Erdogan and Turkey. The US, Israel, PKK terrorist run “Greater Kurdistan” (aka Israel 2.0), Daesh, FETÖ, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Egypt, along with the rest of the AngloZionist Empire (all enemies of Turkey) are the real enemy (occupiers) of the Syrian (and Turkish) people (Turkey hosts over 3.6 million Syrian refugees).
Catherine Shakdam wrote a likely article about a possible “grand alliance” between the Muslim Brotherhood and the Houthis.
Hi Laika:
Laika said : “The US, Israel, PKK terrorist run “Greater Kurdistan” (aka Israel 2.0), Daesh, FETÖ, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Egypt, along with the rest of the AngloZionist Empire (all enemies of Turkey) are the real enemy (occupiers) of the Syrian (and Turkish) people (Turkey hosts over 3.6 million Syrian refugees).”
How is it that this fact slips the minds of so many? Of course the zionist crowd glosses over that time and time again. Preferring to present Kurds as being used -victims “Whilst America for example does not give two hoots about the Syrian Kurds” and fighters of ISIS, while ignoring entirely the live as it happens intent to create a “greater Kurdistan” or as I like to label it an Israel 2.0.
What strikes me as vastly greater concern for the zionist crowd is the fact that the M4 and M5 highways are open, signalling further opportunities for cooperation between Turkey, Iran and Syria and an impediment in the desired goal of expanding Israel 2.0. aka Greater Kurdistan.The zio teeth gnashing has been obvious this past week.
When the question is asked “who is Erdogan’s friends in the region?”
Since I don’t actually believe in the concept of “friends” in this context.
Let’s rephrase and ask – Why Turkey has no allies in NATO any longer?
Could the displeasure NATO displays towards Turkey be played out through our media talking heads?
In the battle for our minds? In the management of our perceptions?
I’d think so.
I hope so.
Zionists – aka eternal war mongers – detest the very notion of peace because it runs counter to their agenda which revolves around the subjugation and domination of their neighbors.
So what do they do?
The blood-soaked war criminals simultaneously play the victim and cry wolf continuously, while sabotaging all attempts at peace, whether between themselves and others – just check out how many times successive Israeli governments deliberately spurned possible peace with Syria and the Palestinians.
And they continue to encourage and foment sectarian tensions across the region, to keep others distracted.
Now this: Gen. Soleimani assassinated to sabotage Iran’s talks with Saudis, UAE following Israeli briefing: NYT
https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2020/02/14/618645/Soleimani-assassinated-to-sabotage-peace-talks
Successive US governments – whether Republican or Democrat – and the various apparatuses of the state are held captive to the interests of Zionists, and this will untimately end badly for Americans.
Selah
Some billboards in Tel Aviv carry the slogan …
“Peace Comes Only From Vanquished Enemies.”
https://twitter.com/LaraFriedmanDC/status/1228444712538923008?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Eembeddedtimeline%7Ctwterm%5Eprofile%3Alobelog&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Flobelog.com%2Fthe-real-plight-of-idlibs-civilians%2F
I am in no way pro-turkish nor do I want to excuse all Turkish actions but simplistic emotional analyses don’t help much.
Mistake #1
Do not equate Turkey == Erdogan. Turkey is a country of almost 80 million ppls. Erdogan got elected pandering to various interest groups, even extremist ones, so now he has to give lip service to them all, hence the inconsistent statements.
Mistake #2
Not all Turkish actions are ordered by Erdogan. Turkey got its own Atlantist 5th column, trying to stir things up between Turkey & Russia/Syria/Iran. The same that did the failed coup, are they all caught ? I would think some stayed hidden and escaped Erdogan’s purges.
Mistake #3
Statements without concrete actions are just that – statements. As far as I am concerned, Erdogan can bark as much as he wants so long as he doesn’t give concrete orders for the Turk army to engage the SAA.
RATM
The israeloamericans have had decades to make Turkey in their interests, and Erdogan, regardless of his personal goals, is no dictator. He has limited power. How much israeloamerican influence remains within the Turk establishment, I don’t know, but his post gulen purges probably only partially removed them.
Sorry RATM, but Erdoğan thinks he is Turkey. He and his corrupt coterie are in control. He has pretty much purged the military, not only of Gulenists, but any officers that would oppose him. He has made a former Chief of General Staff and supporter, Hulusi Akar, his Minister of Defence.
Blue Dotterel on February 15, 2020 · at 2:35 am EST/EDT
Sorry RATM, but Erdoğan thinks he is Turkey.
And you know what Erdogan thinks? How? Psychic?
That type of statement is always a head scratcher to me.
@RATM, did you read this paragraph?
“Above all, what do Turkish people want from the Turkish presence in Syria? Turkey hasn’t been at war for a whole century. The leader that once promised “zero problems” with neighbours is digging in his heels and seems determined to engage in an all-out war with Syria. The average Turkish citizen may ask why and to what end?”
Ghassan Kadi:
Of course I read it. I agree that the regular Turkish citizen is opposed to the involvement in Syria, but there are vested interests that do want to profit from war & chaos. Differentiate those two.
RATM:
“Statements without concrete actions are just that – statements. As far as I am concerned, Erdogan can bark as much as he wants so long as he doesn’t give concrete orders for the Turk army to engage the SAA.”
I like that thinking! Words are deployed for so many reasons- Some statements made by leadership anywhere in the world have specific audiences they are hoping to reach- Domestic, foreign, local political parties, unions- different words for different contexts- It’s highly doubtful that the Turkish army will engage SAA. Not impossible, but, doubtful-
“simplistic emotional analyses don’t help much”
actually they don’t help at all- overwrought emotionally charged analysis is used to incite- not to create an environment conducive to thoughtful, rational analysis.
@Penny. Let me enlighten you with the Greek saying, which I am translating “The tongue has no bones but it breaks bones”.
I do not thing I need to explain this?
Also, Poles have a saying, which I am translating as well “Keep your tongue behind your teeth”
Which brings me to another “silence is golden”
This is why another usually follows “I did not mean that!” Therefore the last one above applies.
Thanks Sir for the informative article
Erdogan needs a hard slap across his ugly face. Perhaps Iran should use some of their smart missiles to target a strategic position/site in Syria that Erdogan regards as a red line. Iran as a stakeholder can play a more active role in breaking the Turkish – Russian impasse over Syria.
Mr Ghassan Kadi, the Sunni vs Shiite divide is a weakness that has been exploited by the enemies of Islam for centuries. The Muslim world must find a solution to this challenge as a matter of great urgency. This problem poses an existential threat mankind. Mr Kadi who in the Muslim world is doing what about this particular issue ?
Thanks for the important question Daniel. To give it justice, I should dedicate a whole article to it in the very near future. Thanks again
I look forward to reading it.
It certainly seems as though the Sunni/Shia split is totally counterproductive for both the people and the leaders of lands where Islam holds sway.
And where in the picture does the idea of secularism even have a place or a role?
Seems like Saddam, basically a secularist, used the Sunni/Shia split domestically just as the Yanks do it internationally and “domestically” after invading a country. That is, favored Sunnis and created total imbalance in country that softened it up for invasion and also post-invasion.
HOwever, I may well have this history wrong, in which case I apologize.
I don’t denigrate the idea of a religiously based government, a la Iran.
A country can do what it wants!
But Something Must Be Done to reduce the open wound, inviting invasion and infection, that is the Sunni/Shia standoff in the Middle East. Perhaps Doing Something was Solameini’s mission.
Katherine
The Treaty of Zuhab in the early 17th century did bring a sort of peace and recognition between the Ottoman and Safavid (Persian) empires that lasted until the US empire managed to put into practice their divide and conquer philosophy after 1979.
Of course, Sunni Arab states after the Ottoman empire dissolved may have continued some animosity after the fall, but as far as I know for about 250-350 years there was a live and let live attitude between the two sects, with minor blips. Modern Syria in fact epitomized this where normal Sunni (except for Wahababi/Salafist/MB extremists) and Shia have coexisted quite well, along with Christians and Jews.
Fog of war . Poor visibility and big uncertainty. Idlib knot is very complicated .Two possible resolutions : “bravely” cut it or slowly undo ( unfasten) the knot. Cutting the knot is unlikely-
too risky .So we are facing very tedious procedure of slowly resolving problem and avoiding escalation or larger conflict.
Problems in Idlib are Al Nusra Front , White Helmets and western powers who are sending
them money, but are not going to fight for them.
So Erdogan is not a main problem he is possible solution in this exhausting procces of undoing
the knot.
It is even possible win-win-win outcome ?
And not only NATZO’s puppet Turkey, but the master himself; Men from Uncle call in Apache helicopters, and Saaraqib becomes the new Saigon:
“A unit of the SAA intercepted a military convoy of the American occupation forces, that tried to enter the village of Tell Shamiran in the western countryside of Tell Tamr and forced it to retreat,” the Syrian newspaper’s reporter said.
The Syrian state-TV also shared footage of the incident showing U.S. armored vehicles leaving Tell Sharman under the cover of Apache attack helicopters.
https://southfront.org/in-video-syrian-army-confronts-u-s-patrol-in-northern-al-hasakah/
BRAVO!!
An astute and thorough analysis.
Very good text. Erdogan played on the map of neo-Ottoman demagogy and gathered supporters among Muslims in areas of the former Ottoman Empire that still nostalgic for those times, but also in areas inhabited by Turkic peoples, and with that pan-Turkism gained many enemies.
Muslims from Bosnia and Herzegovina, from Sandzak and from all over the former Yugoslavia, and probably beyond, are very fond of Erdogan’s populist nonsense about rebuilding the Ottoman Empire because they never got over and always regretted the departure of the Ottomans from our region.
They were the ruling caste at the time and Christians were slaves and they mourn for such times.
But the times are much different today, Erdogan has long managed to play on all sides and swim in different waters, but that has come to an end. He pushes Turkey to ruin. I hope there is someone influential in Turkey who is aware of this because they have to neutralize it if they think well of their country Turkey.
As far as I know, there is a caldron slowing developing in Syria, the soup to be served this time will be a Turkish one. I want to see what Erdogan will do when he get informed his mens are trapped in a caldron and are about to die. Sure enough, the caldron is developing slowly probably to give to the civilians the opportunity to flee away from the area. Syrians know that a lot of these civilians are actually Al-Nustra guys, so they are being pushed to get inside Turkey as refugees. When the civilian level became acceptable, the sky will fall in Erdogan’s head. Before this happen he will be offered a saving face option to go away… maybe. Actually, some friends of mine believe it has been offered to he already and it was called Libya, but the dumb dude, blind in his megalomania, could not see it.
The Kurds will be happy to participate in Erdogan’s obliteration. Everything will happen early enough to get Trump with pants down handling his re-election. No one will move a dam finger to help him. NATO leaders are fed up of Erdogan, I don’t see Merkel/Macron sending german or french troops to die for saving Erdogan wet islamist dreams.
I bet he will be overturned soon, in a coup and for sure this time no Russian call will arrive in time to alert him.
Let me conclude with a statement about dumbness:
“The problem with dumb people…, I mean, their main problem, what makes them so undesirable is that they create the worst problems to the others.”
author: an owner of a small bar in the São Joaquim Market, Salvador, Bahia – Brasil.
I did a search for “Mercadinho São Joaquim”. There are some photos on Google Maps. Interesting. Thank you. :-)
Very different from winter in eastern Europe.
“The problem with dumb people…, I mean, their main problem, what makes them so undesirable is that they create the worst problems to the others.”
Hmm, very interesting, so true, I often thought the same myself in more enlightened moments . . . . .
The israeloamerican (zionazi-gay) war between Syria and Turkey isn’t going to happen.
Regarding Erdogan, would a zionazi-gay 100% controlled gulen proxy regime be preferable? Is there a serious option in the Turk establishment to Erdogan thst isn’t compromised by being an israeloamerican quisling?
When the ideal isn’t available, one makes do with what is…
Inadequate. You either have principles / morals / ethics, or you don’t.
Yes, “… You either have principles / morals / ethics, or you don’t. …” sounds very nice, but it does not address the central question:
“… would a zionazi-gay 100% controlled gulen proxy regime be preferable? Is there a serious option in the Turk establishment to Erdogan that isn’t compromised by being an israeloamerican quisling? ,,,”
Thanks, Peter. I suppose the Turks could appoint/elect ant and then Turkey would have that leader with “principles / morals / ethics”. But on the other hand it wasn’t specified what sort of principles / morals / ethics wrre being insisted upon, so perhaps Turkey could be worse off in that scenario. ;-D
More seriously, though (and this not directed at you, Peter, but me thinking aloud), who picks the Turkish leadership? Turks, or outsiders? Ideally Turk citizens do. I don’t know how Turkey’s internal politics work, so cant comment on them. I also don’t know how Erdogan fits in with the Turk power hierarchy, what his power actually is, what it is not, nor do I know what he wants. For all I know, Erdogan, netanyahoo and trump may be in a passionate 3 way love affair. ;-D
What I mean is Erdogan is the current Turk leader, everybody has to deal with that. The gulen coup was to instal something more akin to saudi arabia or jordan zionazi quislings. From israel’ s perspective, that would be peachy keen, but from a human viewpoint, toxic. So unless one wants to go the israeloamerican route of regime changing foreign governments to force one’s geopolitics down the throats of those one has no business assaulting, one needs to work with these leaders as is.
The alternative is more war. Exactly what israel wants. Though not so much by their direct hand, but using the hands of their proxies. Even if Erdogan is a total fraud and 100% working in sync with zionazia, the non war options need to be pursued first.
Much interesting food for thought. Personally, I have the gut feeling that the slimeball Erdogan’s entire misadventure in Syria would be unthinkable if it weren’t (possibly by ”lucky accident”) perfectly in sync with Israel’s land-grabbing designs as per the Oded-Yinon plan. To what extent Erdogan actually cares about Tel Aviv — I have no idea. But of course he knows that stirring up chaos in Syria is a ”safe bet” with regard to the approval of imperialism and Zionism.
One thing I’ll have to say for Erdogan is that his orchestration of EU’s refugee crisis in 2015 was a masterstroke. After all, it wasn’t Erdogan/Turkey who started the mess in Syria, but Turkey got flooded by Syrian refugees. Thanks to capitalist greed on the part of EU’s corporatocracy, the problem was swiftly solved (from Turkey’s point of view). Erdogan’s amusement watching the agonizing Euro-cretins, most notably Tsipras in Greece, can readily be imagined.
Lastly, some words about His Highness Erdogan’s visit to Kiev: Not that the Ukronazis could ever be expected to understand anything, but given their adulation of ”Europe” (as per their own fantasies), they should be ”rightfully” mad at him. He trashed their sweet dreams of ”Europe” forever. The Ukronazis are in no position to cleanse Western Europe of any undesirables. They had better not try, or they will find out what being undesirable really feels like.
“After all, it wasn’t Erdogan/Turkey who started the mess in Syria, but Turkey got flooded by Syrian refugees. ”
Bit of a stretch here. The influx of terrorists into Syria began before Qaddafi fell, passing from North Africa through the Libya port of Benghazi to Turkey and thence across the border into Syria. The murder of ambassador Stevens was necessary to avoid the risk of his scheduled appearance before Congress revealing this covert traffic in terrorism. Remember the video of that endless ISIS convoy of identical new Toyota trucks traveling from Syria’s northern border all the way to Anbar Province in Iraq? Pretty obvious where that convoy originated, no? Erdogan has had his finger in this pie from the beginning.
I’m of course not saying Erdogan is innocent. Above all, Erdogan is an opportunist scavenger. According to Wikipedia:
This is Erdogan in a nutshell. He watched as the conspiracy of the real plotters — the ones who masterminded the whole thing — played out in Syria, encouraged it, and then joined in. It was the US, the UK, and Saudi Arabia that started the war by arming al-Qaeda and the Muslim Brotherhood from March 2011. I am quite sure Erdogan thought it would be a feast of fast and easy spoils strengthening his power and hence the prospects of his awesome Ottoman delusions. Huge miscalculation, sure, but Erdogan would not be Erdogan if he didn’t have the dexterity and cleverness to deal with unintended consequences such as the Syrian refugees flooding Turkey.
The logistics of sending hundreds of thousands of mercenaries from 80+ countries into Syria from Turkey could not have been carried out without 100% cooperation by Erdogan and Turkey. This thing took years of planning, training and preparation. To claim that Erdogan jumped on the bandwaggon is unreal.
The Wikipedia is a bad source of information about things like this. It is an Israeli/Jewish operation from A to Z. I only trust things like its Table of Elements. When the situation changes today, their scribes rewrite what happened 10 years ago.
”This thing took years of planning, training and preparation. To claim that Erdogan jumped on the bandwaggon is unreal.”
Again: Erdogan is not innocent by any stretch of the imagination. And of course the Zionazis knew his moral stature inside out. Yet, Erdogan was and is itching for land-grabbing at Syria’s expense and hell-bent on not ceding any territory — neither in Turkey, nor in Syria — to the Kurds, hence complicating the plot. Look at a map of the region and ask yourself if it was crucial to have the erratic Turkish regime flooding Syria with Takfiri rabble when the heartland of that plague is a mere stone’s throw away down south, separated geographically from Syria only by territories ruled by compliant regimes. The early North African contingents could be shipped to Saudi Arabia as well as Turkey. The depraved Outhouse of Saud has never been anything but a hotbed of truly evil reaction for export abroad, independently or at the request of Zionism and imperialism. Erdogan’s Turkey is more like Poland: a greedy hyena.
This is the best understanding of Erdoğan and his approach to foreign policy that I have read. And the comparison to Don Quixote is more than apt. Erdoğan has created his own dreamlike reality, and his sycophantic advisors are incapable or unwilling to present a rational alternative to him.
The Turkish people were quite able to buy into the PKK threat theory, but Idlib and Libya are not supported by any but the most radical neo-Ottoman nationalist types of Erdoğan’s (and Bahçeli’s) supporters.
The US suckered and sucked Erdoğan into Syria by supporting the Syrian Kurds, and now hope that the Turks will supply the cannon fodder to continue to destabilize Syria. Erdoğan was once aware of this, and tried on his part to get NATO involved so that Turkey would not have to go it alone. But he has outwitted himself, and now either has to go into a disasterous quagmire for Turkey or back off and lose face. He will choose the former, as he has no rehard for Turkey, only for his neo-Ottoman Sultanic dreams of conquest.
My friend, the Saker, has been blessed by the Lord-God with what is emerging as one of the most important sources on the internet of reliable and strategically important information and analysis of international affairs. This is particularly true of events that have been continuously unfolding in Syria and Iraq for the last several years. Perhaps it is time for analysts to devote some attention to the prophecy of Prophet Muhammad (صلي الله عليه و سلم) who prophesied an End-time conquest of Constantinople by a Muslim army. It seems to me that Erdogan is taking Turkey in precisely a direction which will inevitably end with civil war. We look forward to that conquest of Constantinople because it will open the way for Hagia Sophia to be returned tot he Orthodox Christian world and, as a consequence, for an alliance between the those who faithfully follow Jesus and Muhammad to take place. It is these two people – Christians and Muslims – who will lead the struggle for the liberation of the oppressed and for the triumph of Truth and Justice at the end of history.
For the time being, Constantinopla has been lost to the Turkish Social Democrats……
No idea whether there are Christians or Muslims amongst them…
A few years ago Turkey was vital to Russian interests in the Middle East, yet Turkey was firmly in the Nato camp. Now Russia has grown militarily to such an extent that Turkey does not count for much anymore, even if Turkey is still in the Nato camp. Turkey is now just an irritant to be tolerated for as long as possible.
And as others have said, just like Viktor Yanukovych in Ukraine was sitting on the fence playing off Russia and the USA for better deals until he fell off his horse and Ukraine went down the drain, similarly Erdogan is now just sitting on the fence playing off Russia and the USA for better deals until he falls off his horse and Turkey goes down the drain.
Amen.
(in case some of you have missed this book i will link it, http://imranhosein.org/inhmedia/books/DajjalQuranBeginningofHistory.pdf )
The 2 humans that changed my perception of Islam is Hr Hosein and Hr Mazaheri, for that i am eternally grateful.
Defintely true for me. I have watched every YouTube video by Sheik Imran Hosein.
I had to restrain myself not to follow up his comment with a string of questions. I am glad for whatever he shares with us.
Esteemed Sheikh Imran thanks for you comment. I understand Fateh (الفتح), and please correct me if I’m wrong, it is the opening of the hearts and minds; not the breakdown of city walls. It is the conquest of the soul against its inner demons and evil in all of its shapes and forms. Armies may break down walls and barriers and coerce people into following their beliefs, but unless souls are purified and willingly choose to uphold right against wrong, good against evil, humanity will not progress towards righteousness .
(Removed language,MOD). Erdogan has constantly tried to play off play off Yankee/NATO against the Russian Federation.
Meanwhile his armed forces and government has been supporting his own idea of religious control (Moslem Brotherhood) in contrast to Saudi Arabia (Wahabbists). Turkey as been a major supported of the Islamic State, buying oil off the Kurds also ISIS. His brother-in-law, Bilal, is deep in this.
S-400’s? Why not, best things there. Patriots are a joke, not even Israeli’s will have anything to do wtih them.
In the end, he is simply yet another war criminal… Like Tony Blair, John Howard, George W Bush, None of them have bothered to satisfy the Nuremberg Principles of War.
Why is it they all get away with murder?
Its the way of the world, no one has done more damage (especially to the ME), than Hillary, and she was idolized here in the states and almost became president doing those same things you mentioned.
”But to add to his list of contradictions, if Erdogan wants to wear the Turban of the Sultan, huff and puff at Russia, he cannot be riding Don Quixote’s donkey at the same time.”
Maybe add, say, one thousand janissaries making unbearable noises with bass drums, horns, bells, triangles, and cymbals. Even Putin might be scared 😱
Erdogan only joined the Syria- Russia-Iran alliance in 2016 after the botched 2016 US backed coup in Turkey. It was self-preservation that drove him to Astana and Sochi.
Now that the imminent threat to his safety has been neutralised at home (or so he thinks) by his purges in the army (and other sections of Turkish society) he has now reneged the a/m agreements and is back to his neo-Ottoman aspirations, which he fundamentally never abandoned. In the meantime, the tide has turned in favor of Syria…
Erdogan has faced and cashed reality checks before.
Erdogan is kind of like the Turkish Donald Trump; there is no other nationalist alternative.
As long as nationalists are the decisive force in the country, Turkey is stuck with Erdogan.
Surrounded by forces he cannot say ‘no’ to, Erdogan is going to look unreal, saying what he has to say, to do what he has to do.
Well this is right up the Americans alley. They are just salivating at the opportunity to encourage Turkey to escalate things in Syria.
This is a very good and detailed analysis. It is very timely as well.
It seems to me that Erdogan has ensnared himself in a web of deception, which he thought he could navigate, but cannot. Dancing to the fiddler’s tune will be his undoing.
As the web of lies that he has surrounded himself with unravels, so shall he.
It may well be that he was ‘promised all of the kingdoms of the earth’, but it will not be so.
If he believes that he can ‘do no wrong’ because he is ‘chosen’ or, ‘so very special’ then, he truly has been decieved.
No man is so special, or important, that he can do no wrong or, that the world just cannot go on without him.
That is a delusion of the false ego.
Because, the ‘what’ is more important than the ‘who’ in many many cases.
Especially in matters of such great import for so very many.
an interesting oped from neo journal:
https://journal-neo.org/2020/02/13/where-does-turkey-stand-in-the-syrian-end-game/
“A Turkish full-wheel U-turn to the US/NATO and the EU, despite the latter’s various attempts, therefore does not seem possible for obvious strategic reasons. An alliance with the US/NATO would be counter-productive in that these countries/alliances favour the establishment of ‘Kurdistan’ and continue to arm and aid Kurdish militias dedicatedly fighting for a nation-state of their own.”
Imminently more sensible
Hi Penny – Yes, that’s (the NEO article) a lot more realistic than what the mainstream Western and Arab media claim. (actually, Guess Whom dominates the media worldwide, and whatever they claim, think the opposite)
Anyway, there’s no rift between Russia and Turkey whatsoever, least of all because Turkey is openly killing Syrian soldiers (oh wait, it’s the other way around). So, rather than Erdogan, it’s Assad who’d be shooting himself in the foot. Russia, Syria, and Iran are far too soft on the Empire’s most popular – but worst of all – (Trotskyite ‘communist’ PKK) terrorists.
Hi Laika: I found it to be an excellent article- thoughtful.
So far it appears to me that Turkey and Russia are still communicating on Idlib and trade and s-400 purchases are all on- As is undoubtedly the nuclear power plant, the pipeline deal, the banking deal and all other agreements they have between them.
The author calls the agreements ‘frameworks’ which is what they are and is really all they can be
“Yet, the candid disagreement and/or failure to honour the deal has not led to a total breakdown of the Sochi process itself, a process that continues to provide the main framework for joint operations inside Syria.”
given the circumstances on the ground, the realities, all the agreements can serve as if frameworks
Also
“The Kurdish factor boils down to deep enough a convergence between Russia/Syria and Turkey that can easily withstand disagreements arising out Syrian operations, the killing of Turkish forces and a wave of refugees that Turkey feels it will have to accommodate due to a Syrian offensive in the northeast of Syria. A damage control mechanism has already been set in motion to not only to control the damage and repair, but also to prevent the US from fishing in troubled waters.”
Laika “Guess Whom dominates the media worldwide”
Alt and mainstream.
[Neosultan] Erdogan has dreams of creating a 21st century Ottoman Empire and is determined to annex Syrian territory. Over the last week, Turkish-backed rebels in Idlib, have shot down two Syrian military helicopters. For a leader who promised “zero problems” with neighbors, Erdogan is now one mistake away from a major war in Western Asia. Apparently, Erdogan has forgotten a fundamental axiom of war- a wise general always leaves at least two routes of escape. Just as Trump has done by exiting the JCPOA (aka ‘Iran nuclear deal’) and targeted assassination of Iranian General Qassem Soleimani in Iraq in January, Erdogan has backed himself into a corner, with no good exit strategy. If Erdogan withdraws Turkish troops, his is admitting failure. If he continues attacking the Syrian Arab Army, he risks escalating the conflict, potentially into a direct military confrontation with Syria, Russia, Iran and Hezbollah.
The Russians are publicly rebuking Erdogan over supplying US MANPADS to the terrorists. Through most of the war, there has been an agreement between US and Russia deconfliction talks to not introduce MANPADS in the Syrian war. Since the US is a prolific user of helicopters in Syria, they had an interest to be safe from these weapons in Syrian or Iranian militia hands, also.
It is a very destabilizing weapon that Erdogan has introduced as a wild card.
It is in his own self-interest to reclaim these weapons before a Russia craft is hit. The Russians, no doubt, have Kalibrs from submarines in the East Med or on boats in the Caspian pre-programmed for Turk assets, men and machines, command and control posts. These counterstrikes will be 100:1 payback, for certain if any Russian is hit with Turk-supplied weapons.
Presently, I have read, that Putin is not taking Erdogan’s phone calls nor has he agreed to meet with the faux Emperor.
Erdogan has taken his eye off the big ball of success awaiting Turkey, its Turkic share of the BRI. SCO membership also is another economic benefit in the near future. The Emperor may have misplaced these future riches for Turkey’s economic development but thousands of businessmen in Turkey certainly have not.
It won’t be the military that coups Erdogan next time. It will be the business elites who see clearly that Russia is a significant market for them and Eurasian Integration is 5-7x the market that EU would ever be.
A war, even a few days of war with Syria-Russia-Hezbollah-Iran, would be a catastrophic embarrassment to the military of Turkey. White flags of surrender might soon drape over Erdogan’s casket. Certainly, the inevitable defeat would embolden Gulen and his CIA handlers. The Emperor would have to flee to Doha from whence he would likely never reappear.
Erdogan is a master of miscalculation.
Larchmonter 445 @ “Presently, I have read, that Putin is not taking Erdogan’s phone calls nor has he agreed to meet with the faux Emperor. “
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/ap/article-8007397/Turkey-Russia-discuss-grave-situation-Syrias-Idlib.html
A Turkish delegation will travel to Russia on Monday to discuss the situation in Syria’s Idlib province amid mounting fears of a humanitarian disaster there, Turkey’s foreign minister said.
https://tass.com/world/1120481
It was reported Feb. 11/20 that Erdogan and Putin would be talking
https://tass.com/politics/1118773
“Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is planning to hold a phone conversation with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin to discuss the situation in Syria’s Idlib”
The lines of communication appear to be open still and I for one am glad for that
We shall see if Putin gives him time and attention.
Erdogan’s bleatings today threaten combat against Syria and, by inference, Russia.
https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/202002151078324418-erdogan-demands-syrian-forces-immediately-leave-idlib-refuses-to-wait-until-end-of-month/
and add this about Libya:
https://sputniknews.com/world/202002151078324359-moscow-rebuts-erdogans-claims-about-russian-private-military-companies-operating-in-libya/
Also, the Tass report on the “delegation” to Moscow does not indicate who they will be talking to. Additionally, planning to have a phone conversation is not a scheduled phone conversation.
It all might be happening, but the ambiguous wording and nebulous scheduling indicates Putin is in no mood for Turkey’s not fulfilling the Sochi agreement. Putin has given Turkey well over a year to clear the Idlib province of terrorists. Erdogan did nothing. Now he arms them with MANPADS and tried to put his forces into battle with al Nusra fighters against the Syrians. That resulted in wholesale slaughter of the terrorists.
Since Putin knows Erdogan only changes when disaster strikes, the next event will be a disaster for the Turks.
It is like Zelensky who thinks he can “work” his way around Putin and the Minsk 2 Accords. He even thinks that changing Surkov for Kozak to deal with Zelensky’s Ermak for negotiations related to Ukie-Russia issues is a win for him. Putin still requires the Minsk 2 Accords be fulfilled, and really hasn’t gotten rid of Surkov from handling Donbass issues. Putin plays a patient long game.
Putin is a simple man to deal with. You keep your end of the agreement or you get nothing from him.
The fact you quote the daily mail as your top source – speaks for itself! “Planning” to hold a telephone conversation and sending a delegation doesn’t mean Putin.
Going to Ukraine and insulting Russia and chanting Nazi slogans – does not bode well. Lying about Russia in Libya – does not bode well.
Meanwhile the Russian Ambassador to Turkey has been threatened
https://sputniknews.com/russia/202002131078309506-russian-ambassador-says-faced-threats-due-to-hostile-sentiments-in-turkey-over-idlib/
and the Kremlin has made it very clear it expects its diplomat’s safety to be taken care of.
https://sputniknews.com/world/202002141078314030-kremlin-believes-turkey-to-ensure-russian-diplomats-safety-amid-threats-to-ambassador/
I think Peter Ford sumed it up quite well recently:
“Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s “adventurism” and escalation of conflict between Ankara and Damascus may backfire on Turkish forces in occupied Idlib, especially if Turkish aircraft violate Syria’s Russian-backed airspace………..”
https://sputniknews.com/analysis/202002041078219683-erdogan-sends-turkish-troops-on-mission-impossible-in-idlib-by-violating-syrian-airspace/
@ V- the social media threats are fodder for the gullible—- since there is no way of knowing who actually made the statements-
an example
https://www.armytimes.com/news/your-army/2020/01/31/how-an-army-vet-became-the-cyber-rambo-in-an-alleged-bolivian-coup/
” Suarez saw claims of a coup by Morales supporters as their own form of misinformation, so he wrote a 25-line code algorithm that would retweet anti-Morales posts. It was, he said, something that “any programming student could have done.”
It worked.
The algorithm managed to cycle more than 13,000 retweets in just a few days, at one point managing 69 tweets per second.”
algorithms and social media manipulation walk hand in hand.
America is laying traps for Turkey, which Erdogan is stupidly falling for.
These American traps involve baiting Turkey into militarily intervening in Syria (like Saraqeb) to advance a broader agenda.
In particular, America’s Machiavellian agenda is to foment tension between Turkey and the Russian-led bloc in the Middle East and ultimately prevent Turkish orientation towards Eurasia and the Eurasian integrationist projects (like Russia’s Eurasian Economic Union or China’s New Silk Road) that the Americans are instinctively hostile towards.
Indeed, the American Empire is weaponizing a tactic that their ancestors, the British Empire, have historically wield: fomenting conflict and playing Turkey against Eurasia.
Is Turkey smart enough to see these American traps and not fall for them?
The choice for Turkey is between a stable Eurasia vs. America and its system of perpetual chaos throughout the region.
Will Turkey Continue Walking into the Traps Set for It by the US?
https://ahtribune.com/world/europe/3864-traps-set-for-turkey-by-the-us.html
This sounds right.
What is Turkey doing messing with Russia in Syria and Libya?
What is his actual strategic aim with all this backing and forthing?
It reminds me of certain French films, where the wife and the mistress get so sick of the faithless, game-playing male in their lives that in the end they both slam the door in his face.
Katherine
according to https://twitter.com/Canthama and several other Syrian “war bloggers” the number of surrounded turkish observation posts is now 10(last night).
That means the SAA have ca 1000 hostages/corpses if your assesment is 100 solidiers @ each post, the turkish wannabe sultan seems to me to be loosing his composure and finally got trapped by his own hands.
Erdo threatening Syria to leave Idlib now not later….really really big build up with military cannot imagine him backing down…SAA has some thermobaric missiles ….this could be it folks. Russia Iran must stop it and support SAA I wish.
https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/202002151078324418-erdogan-demands-syrian-forces-immediately-leave-idlib-refuses-to-wait-until-end-of-month/
… Erdogan is a paper-tiger …
Erdo threatening Syria to leave Idlib now not later…
Definitely escalating here toward a head, given that we see only this past week MANPADS shooting down those 2 so far Syrian helicopters.
i was just checking the latest progress of the SAA and this video appeared
“Turkey will disappear from the face of the earth as a state-Prophecy Elder Paisios from Greece.” (linking source tweet)
https://twitter.com/mihirdjin/status/1228765737411661824
To claim someone is “psychopathic and megalomaniac” and that “Erdogan however believes that he has a mandate from God”, then explain all the actions of the same person using these “facts”, is a not a basis for constructive analysis.
Turkey is doing in the region what all other states are doing: trying to increase its influence. The means it is using for the relevant purpose is not much different from other states. Why is Russia in Syria and Libya? Why does Iran’s arm extend in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen? What is Egypt and UAE doing in Libya? Why are Saudi Arabia and UAE bombing Yemen?
Russia is on the same side with Saudi Arabia/UAE in Libya, the countries that are prime exporters of extremist ideologies and empire’s long-lasting allies — the same countries that are ruthlessly bombing Yemen to its smithereens. States do not form policies based on predilections but according to their interests. (Personal attack removed, mod)
Esteemed Imran N. Hosein it is pleasing to hear from you .I first got acquainted with your work from this very site and I am impressed.
I have pondered over the end of time prophesy for a long time and often I wonder, what does it really mean. My understanding is that time does not exist as a separate independent entity like say the five elements (Earth, Air, Fire,Water and Ether/Space). Time is synonymous with thought movement or to put it simply it arises out of the need for demarcating events/instances. There exists two types of time,namely (i)Clock based time and (ii) Psychological time. The clock time is a practical indispensable tool for regulating activities. The Psychological time implies man indulgence with his weaknesses. it is synonymous with what scriptures describe as “the fall of man’. Ussually the stopping of this time happens at an individual level man .Typical it happens that under certain circumstances, a man comes to a categorical realization of their utter “nothingness” a stage that is followed by Absolute Surrender to God. Such an evolution implies a shift in consciousness and stopping of psychological time. The fall of Constantinople could imply global shift in consciousness .A hot war(killings) bad as it is, pails when compared to a psychological war. It is far easy to stop the current Idlib conflict than to convince a White Supremacist that a Black man is equally human as he is. My people say,” A rock and jealousy were once cooked together in a big pot , the rock melted but jealousy remained un-touched’. Human psychology has been stagnating for millions of years , it is time for it to evolve to the next stage/go beyond the mind (Absolute Surrender to God) Constantinople must fall otherwise Computers and their AI will enslave man.
The big question : how to melt jealousy.
A brief question, a brief answer, and the solution of all time.
First of all :
Step 1. Understand the big question fully.
Step 2.. Understand the significance for the potential of melting jealousy.
Step 3. Ask yourself if you really want to.
Jika:
I would guess that you wrote that line “to convince a White Supremacist that a Black man is equally human as he is” without much thought; just using an expression that ‘everybody believes’.
In the Autobiography of Malcolm X, the author tells of a meeting between two groups: one consisting of white nationalists, and the other consisting of black nationalists. The meeting was conducted with great cordiality. Both sides fully understood the others’ points of view and were quite sympathetic. Moreover, there was no virtue signalling (to use a current term), nor any hypocrisy.
Each side saw the other as fully human and worthy of respect; but different in important ways, with different interests and goals.
Naturally that one incident cannot speak for all members of all such groups, but it is at least a counter example to the view that you put forth.
Ed Walsh
Inner war is more difficult than outer war. Jesus puts it quite simply when he was called upon to judge a certain prostitute. He said (not verbatim), ‘Let he who has never committed a Sin be the first to cast the stone”. None of those guys could lift the finger, because the master had skillfully reversed polarity from the “other”(outer) to the “self”(inner) . The “Other” is a convenient escape from facing the ‘self’. It is wisdom to realize that the self is identified by the other. There is no ‘self’ without the ‘other’.
Jika:
Your reply has shed additional light on your original post. Truly the inner and the outer. In the original post it was the fall of Constantinople and the inner change of heart — in an individual, in a country, in an era.
Thanks for being willing to share such deep insights with this blog’s community.
It is no mystery that Erdogan Turkey along with the USA, Saudi Arabia, Israel, Qatar, ISIS and Al-Qaeda is a major player in the plot to destroy yet another secular, national Arab country!
Turkey was and still is the transport highway of arms and terrorists to Syria. Without Turkey’s facilitation, terrorists and arms couldn’t have flooded Syria.
Turkey’s hands are soaked in the blood of Syria and the Syrian people and is fully responsible for the horror, agony and misery imposed on Syria and the Syrian people!
If there’s justice in this world, Syria would and should make Turkey and the axis of monstrosity and evil (USA, Israel, Turkey and Saudi Arabia) pay with everything they have and perhaps one day it may just happen.
The Saker, please, give me your opinion. Now Erdogan is in against Russia, the negociation with S-400 is bad?
Don Quixote didn’t ride a donkey; that was his squire Sancho Panza. Don Quixote rode a broken-down old horse called Rocinante.
Canthama BTL #309375 in SyrPer:
“In response to the threat from Erdoggy that the SAA should retreat and return all area liberated by blood of Syrian soldiers, the Syrian Government asked the SAA to speed up the advances and go all the way to the border with Turkey…it seems erdoggy’s game did not play well….
1) A new front was opened in southern Idlib….Rakaya and Ash-Shaykh Damis were liberated, it seems the SAA will go the full liberation of al-Zawiyah mountains, all the way to M4. The key town of Kfar Sejena and Tal Al-Nar are now surrounded from 3 sides.”
And according to Iranian Press TV not only NATZO’s Turkish puppet but The Man himself is feeling heat under his feet:
Uncle $cam under pressure as Russia, Syria step up efforts to counter occupying U$ troops.
https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2020/02/15/618713/US-Syria-Russia-pressure
My thoughts
– geopolitics makes things very complex with seemingly erratic behaviour. E.g.
— threats from empire to Erdoggie to participate in Syrian destruction together with promises of benefits if actions requested are obeyed.
— same from the other side; Russia, axis of resistance etc but of course with the empire being the instigator of chaos
– Erdoggie then has to play both sides for survival as well as furthering his own ambitions.
– threats can destroy Turkey itself, let alone Erdoggie. So what can he do? Play erratic and inconsistent games.
—- I personally think, Erdorggie has changed. He was initially very enthusiastic in pursuing what empire wanted for personal gain but later, after being schooled on the price to be paid by following the destructive empire designs, found the cost too high since empire would just use and discard him. But being caught between a rock and a hard place, he has to pull stunts that do not fully reveal his hand. Sometimes for one side and then next for the other (those hats). But I believe he sees his future with the east and that is why he is pulling really outrageous stunts like in the Ukraine, warning to attack Syrian forces etc, to fool empire.
My thoughts
– geopolitics makes things very complex with seemingly erratic behaviour. E.g.
— threats from empire to Erdoggie to participate in Syrian destruction together with promises of benefits if actions requested are obeyed.
— same from the other side; Russia, axis of resistance etc but of course with the empire being the instigator of chaos
– Erdoggie then has to play both sides for survival as well as furthering his own ambitions.
– threats can destroy Turkey itself, let alone Erdoggie. So what can he do? Play erratic and inconsistent games.
—- I personally think, Erdorggie has changed. He was initially very enthusiastic in pursuing what empire wanted for personal gain but later, after being schooled on the price to be paid by following the destructive empire designs, found the cost too high since empire would just use and discard him. But being caught between a rock and a hard place, he has to pull stunts that do not fully reveal his hand. Sometimes for one side and then next for the other (those hats). But I believe he sees his future with the east and that is why he is pulling really outrageous stunts like in the Ukraine, warning to attack Syrian forces etc, to fool empire.
— finally, I forgot to conclude that, either way, he is in deep dodo; obey the empire diktat and pay the price from the other side, refuse to comply with empire diktat and pay the price from empire. So, the article is right on the sense that his hand will be called.
I do not believe Erdo has any Islamic beliefs. His only loyalty is to himself and Islam is just a tool. Exactly like Hinduism for Narendrabhai Damodardasbhai Modi in India, whose regime closely patterns itself on Erdogan’s, using the same tactics, and is also fast running out of choices.
I see no rational reason for Erdogan to obsess about meddling in Syria–other than doing the bidding of Israeli / Zionist interests. Through banksters’ speculations and interventions, the Turkish lira has been massively devalued already. I can only speculate that Erdogan has been blackmailed by the US Treasury Dept or Wall Street (pretty much the same) into being the goyish frontman of advancing the Yinon plan of splintering the Middle East into warring factions. He must be getting something in return from the usual suspects for this otherwise insane obsession.
I am absolutely convinced now that the Syrian Lion is emerging victorious. I just watched the evening news where they lamented very much about the Syrian you-know-what and its even more rotten, main ally ”bombing civilians” in Idlib. It’s so ridiculous it’s comical. As if Assad and Putin had not one single supporter among the population. One ’refugee’ across the border proclaimed: ”Do you really prefer Assad to 25 million Syrians?”. Tempting reply: ”More likely, the overwhelming Syrian majority prefers Assad to a despicable mouthpiece providing drivel learned by rote”.
I believe we have the victory.
In a mission from God. Means he has no brain.
However, even if he wears sun glasses and a hat, il will still prefer the blues brothers.On a serious issu, Erdogan will not succeed where europeans and anglo-zionists have failed with their proxies.
Monday 17 Feb 2020 / Tehran – 05:28 / GMT – 01:58
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http://fna.ir/df0ccz Sun Feb 16, 2020 7:26 Ein Al-Assad, An Unending Nightmare for US
Ein Al-Assad, An Unending Nightmare for US
TEHRAN (FNA)- Washington is still trying to control information about the size and the scope of the damages and casualties incurred on the US army at Ein Al-Assad Airbase in Southwestern Iraq after Iran’s missile strike last month that came in retaliation for the assassination of IRGC Qods Force Lieutenant General Qassem Soleimani.
Lieutenant Commander of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) Brigadier General Ali Fadavi underlined on Saturday that the Americans’ lies will be disclosed soon, and said, “All aspects of Iran’s military attack against the US base, Ein al-Assad, will be exposed by the Americans during their partisan plays and we have much information about Iran’s attack on Ein al-Assad, but we prefer the Americans to admit the damages of Iran’s attack on the airbase.”
Media reports have said that US President Donald Trump has not yet allowed any official to release information about the heavy casualties and damages of the operations and threatened them with heavy punishment, if they leak any information.
But the IRGC’s missile strike against Ein al-Assad in Iraq was a part of the Islamic Republic of Iran’s harsh revenge from the US for the assassination of Lieutenant General Qassem Soleimani. The development is still one of the top headlines of the world media after 40 days due to the American officials’ lies about the number of the dead and wounded soldiers in the attack; the US officials still continue to increase the number of casualties every week.
The big operations codenamed ‘Martyr Qassem Soleimani’ against Ein al-Assad – which was conducted at 01:20am (local time) of January 8, the same hour when the vehicle carrying General Soleimani came under attack on January 3 and and just a few hours before his funeral ceremony – left 120 American soldiers dead and over 200 others wounded.
Confusion of the US military and security bodies and media
The US National Security Council immediately held a meeting to investigate the catastrophic blow and approved a secret bill based on which the US government declared war emergency situation, stressing that any information about Ein al-Assad missile strike should remain confidential and leaking any information about the attack before coordination with the US defense department would be a stern violation of national security; yet Newsweek had already released a report and put the number of casualties at 270 before receiving the urgent notice.
The editor-in-chief of Newsweek for world news service corrected the news minutes after receiving the notice without any explanation and deleted the number of casualties from the Newsweek website but the original text of the report is still available on the internet and its print screens have been saved by readers.
Trump canceled speech after US National Security Council’s approval
Also, the approval delayed US President Donald Trump’s TV speech for one day in which he claimed that the Iranian missile strikes against the US base have taken no toll from either the US or Iraqi armies due to the US army’s deterrent measures, precaution and redeployment of forces in different places.
Some minutes after Trump’s remarks, the aviation websites reported flight of a Boeing cargo plane, C17, from Baghdad airport to Ramstein Air Base in Germany for treatment missions at Landstuhl Regional Medical Center. The plane is also equipped with numerous fridges to carry dead bodies.
Capabilities of US base in Landstuhl in the heart of Europe
The Landstuhl Regional Medical Center (LRMC) is an overseas military hospital operated by the United States Army. LRMC is the largest US military hospital outside the continental United States. It is near Landstuhl, Germany, and is the nearest treatment center for wounded soldiers coming from Iraq and Afghanistan.
In addition, it serves military stationed throughout Europe and Africa, as well as their family members.
The medical center also serves as a stop-over (evacuated via the nearby Ramstein Air Base) for serious casualties from Iraq and Afghanistan before being flown to the United States.
What was the cause of the large number of US casualties in Ein al-Assad?
The IRGC’s missile strikes on Ein al-Assad were conducted in two stages with an interval of 30 to 40 minutes. In the first stage, 9 ballistic missiles were fired. The US army was on alert in anticipation of Iran’s reprisal attack for the assassination of General Soleimani, and most US troops had been transferred to shelters, but given the high destructive power of the Iranian missiles, a number of them were killed in the shelters. After nearly half an hour when no missiles were fired, the American commanders assumed that the operations had ended and ordered evacuation to rush to aid the wounded; and it was then when more missiles landed at the base, killing and wounding scores more.
After the attack, Trump claimed on his twitter page that “All is well! Missiles launched from Iran at two military bases located in Iraq. Assessment of casualties & damages taking place now. So far, so good! We have the most powerful and well equipped military anywhere in the world, by far! I will be making a statement tomorrow morning.” Later in a televised address he repeated the same remarks while he was confused and frustrated.
Damage control and phased admission
One week after the attack, Trump, his Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and the US military spokespersons and commanders all claimed that the American soldiers in Ein al-Assad are sound and safe, but the Pentagon was forced to first admit casualties followed by gradually increasing the number of the wounded forces, speaking of traumatic brain injuries, although US Secretary of Defense Mark Esper only spoke of headache among the American soldiers deployed at the base.
The US soldiers’ “traumatic brain injury” was first revealed by a Kuwaiti newspaper that also revealed transfer of a number of severely injured US troops to a hospital in the Arab country. The Pentagon increased the number several times to 16, 34 and 64 from 11 and finally, on February 11, the Pentagon confirmed traumatic brain injury of 109 military men in Ein al-Assad. The number seems to rise to 200 in coming weeks, specially considering that the Petagon has said 109 is not the final number of the wounded.
Some reports said that a number of US democrat senators are aware of the number of casualties but they have decided to disclose it on the threshold of the presidential election.
Damage estimates
Reports on Ein al-Assad attack said nearly 4 helicopters, two cargo planes and the watchtower of the base’s military airport were destroyed. But the US officials never allowed the reporters and photographers to take images and footages of the destroyed watchtower, command center and radar center, confining reporters’ visit to the site to a several-hundred-meter area of the base to show some burnt tents, a big hole in the runway and a devestated building. They declared other parts of the base as forbidden zone.
Meantime, reports said when the IRGC carried out missile attacks against Ein al-Assad, 8 US-made drones were flying but their contacts with the control center at the base were cut due to the IRGC’s jamming operations and then the control center was targeted by missiles.
The US forces immediately started search operations to find the 8 drones but they found the debris of 3 aircraft and they still lack any information about the fate of 5 other drones.
US bases and Israeli army on high alert for 40 days
Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution and Commander-in-Chief of the Iranian Armed Forces Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei several hours after the IRGC’s missile attack against the US army positions in Ein al-Assad said that “Iran slapped American on the face last night. Military action like this is not sufficient. What is important is ending the corrupting presence of America in the region”.
After his remarks, high-ranking IRGC commanders and resistance groups’ leaders, including Hezbollah, stressed that operations against Ein al-Assad was only the first step of more extensive and crushing operations in the future and the US and the Zionist regime will be forced to leave the Muslim world and the West Asia region.
These repeated threats have both lowered the US forces’ morale, given the long time they have been kept on high alert and because they have been kept in the dark with regard to the true number of the Ein Al-Assad casualties, as they are waiting for a bigger operation against another US base; they know an attack is in the offing, but they don’t know when and where and that’s wearing off their threshold of tolerance.
Commander of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps Major General Hossein Salami, who addressed a ceremony to commemorate General Soleimani 40 days after his martyrdom, said General Soleimani has been replicated and the resistance front has been aspired again.
“The US was slapped in the face, but the strong and final slap will continue to come until the last US soldier retreats from the Muslim lands, and this reality is close,” he said.
Now, the Muslim world is waiting for repeated, confusing and destructive operations by the resistance forces across the region and the world.
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Joshua, Thanks for this bulletin
.
The Yanks seem to expect Persians, inheritors of a thousands-years-old culture, to be dumb desert rats.
Katherine
Excellent news.
Soon, the Pindo mercenaries will be traumatized by the very word ”Assad”. The leader of the Syrian ”regime” plus the military base struck by Iran. As for Pindo brain injuries, they are a national characteristic.
Abovementioned description of the Iranian attack seems quite plausible to me. Don’t underestimate the demoralizing effect of it, comparable with the downing of their most sophisticated drone in Iranian skies a while ago.
I don’t believe one bit of over a hundred soldiers with traumatic brain injuries. That’s fabricated to ease their families, who haven’t had contact for quite a while, I guess.
Cheers, Rob
Speaking of Americans being traumatized by the attack on their airbase, the video below includes interviews with some of these US soldiers at Ain al-Assad base.
They are clearly chastened, and some of them are almost choking back tears as a result of the attack, as they realized that they are now on the receiving end of all the bombings that America routinely perpetrates around the world (often on civilians like Afghan peasants). One irony is that these US troops were forced to hide in Saddam Hussein’s old bunkers as ballistic missiles rained down on their heads.
These’s nothing like facing your own mortality to put the fear of Allah in you.
The video is the smaller second one found in the link below.
RGC Aerospace Forces Commander’s debriefing about Iran’s strike against Al-Assad US Airbase
https://www.greanvillepost.com/2020/02/15/irgc-aerospace-forces-commanders-debriefing-about-irans-strike-against-al-assad-us-airbase/
Well who cares the number of casualty ?
The point is rather symbolic and strategic.
It is well said by Salami.
https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2020/02/17/618895/Salami-IRGC-Soleimani-US-base-Al-Mayadeen-Ain-al-Assad-missile
Quote
In his interview, Salami emphasized that the IRGC’s attack was also a military response, because the Islamic Republic had to give a “clear, understandable, and credible response that could be witnessed by the entire world in order to shape global norms that are used to judge our power and the will that backs that power.”
He said Iran needed to carry out the attack as it proved the country’s power and determination, adding “We had to stop the Americans at that point and show them that their calculations and hypotheses must be changed when dealing with the Islamic Republic of Iran.”
End quote
There does not seem to any reports of Turkish airforce flying around near Syrian borders…does this indicate a division between airforce and Erdogan…..does he realise that might be potential signs or intention that would be too far to go…..having got rid of Gulen influences…is the military in total obedience or subjugation….there is no dissent within either because they are such loyal followers….who governs the military… Erdogan directly or a council of sorts….is there much of an internal dialogue within the military regarding the validity and level of support for Erdogans strategies and what appears to be increasing hardware support for The National Liberation front HTS other groups??????? Or is the military brainwashed by Erdogans personality and modus operandi??? Will they advise no further at some point?
Soooo….two days Turkish Russian talks…..a joint patrol resumed in Syria somewhere.. no further public news announcements ….procrastination so Russia and SAA can continue as declared against terrorists or they have made up to some extent……???? Reports HTS moving out their ammo dumps etc and refused Turkeys offers to transfer to one of its more mainstream groups directly supported by Turkey…….
https://southfront.org/turkish-russian-negotiations-on-idlib-finish-with-no-breakthrough-airstrikes-pound-turkish-friends-from-al-qaeda-in-idlib/
Comment from Sergey Lavrov
https://tass.com/politics/1120913
“Military representatives of both Russia and Turkey, who are on the ground in Syria, in Idlib province, stay in constant contact, review situation changes. They have, as we hear both from Russian and Turkish military, full mutual understanding,” the minister said.
He reminded that the next round of negotiations between inter-agency delegations of Russia and Turkey takes place in Moscow.
“All facts are on the table,” the minister said. “I hope they would be able to present ideas that would allow to de-escalate this situation [in Idlib], based on agreements, reached by the Presidents of Russia and Turkey.”
“… Comment from Sergey Lavrov …”
I have always admired seasoned diplomats’ supreme ability to appear to say something, when in fact they are saying nothing :-) Russia & Turkey have just ended a day of “talks” in Moscow agreeing on … nothing … and are to continue more of the same on Tuesday… The bottom line: one must sooner or later back off. Make guesses…
”Turkey has no reason for having a military presence and fight in Syria. It is only Erdogan’s ego and dreams that do.”
Very little has been said or written about to what extent Erdogan — in the specific context of the war in Syria — is a tool of Israel. The Zionist Entity certainly appreciates the weakening of a reputable enemy state, in particular when the enmity clearly encompasses the Zionists’ expansionism by land-grabbing. So while Erdogan’s delusions and pure self-love do form part of Turkish foreign policy, there may be something more to it.
In a Monday’s article titled No Agreement Between Turkey and Russia on Syria (Keine Einigung zwischen Türkei und Russland zu Syrien, https://www.berliner-zeitung.de/politik-gesellschaft/keine-einigung-zwischen-tuerkei-und-russland-zu-syrien-li.76229 ), Berliner Zeitung, commenting on the failed Moscow talks, reports that while Moscow was trying very hard to resolve the contention between Turkey and Russia over Syria – Ankara is placing Turkish troops in Syria “in state of highest alert”.
Hmm. Just more noise?
I do not believe that complete liberation of North – West Syria is possible without war with Turkey. Erdogan is lunatic and he is not going to quit just like that.
It is not only Idlib region, ti is also Afrin region in Syrian North border with Turkey.
Erdogan is insane person with specific obsession about renewal of Ottoman Empire and I do not think that rational reasoning with him is possible.
Only military defeat can be solution for Erdogan problem. And as we can see, significant percentage of Turkish population is poisoned with such an ideology.
“… I do not believe that complete liberation of North – West Syria is possible without war with Turkey. …”
It does appear so. Whether Erdogan is indeed a full blown lunatic or “only” acts as one, hardly makes a difference…
The Moscow based “МК-Турция” reports that today, on Wednesday, 19 February 2020, Erdogan made this reply to the journalists’ question of how Washington could support Ankara in case of a possible Turkish military operation in Idlib: “Between us and Trump can at any time appear any kind of solidarity”.
So … he’s openly playing the U.S. vs. Russsia…
https://mk-turkey.ru/politics/2020/02/19/mot-erdogan-ne-isklyuchil-chto-ssha-podderzhat.html
The same agency reports also that Erdogan, addressing today members of his party in the Turkish parliament, announced an impending start of a Turkish military action against Syrian armies, to expel them from the territory surrounding 12 Turkish observation posts, adding: “We will not leave Idlib. Whatever it costs.”
https://mk-turkey.ru/blog/yashar/2020/02/19/yashar-po-povodu-vozmozhnoj-operacii.html
UNSC meeting re Syria now wonder what is said…
Duran has a discussion but it is from 8 hrs ago…an interesting view point is from Mark Sleboda here
https://sputniknews.com/analysis/202002191078353759-turkey-syria-idlib-standoff-will-continue-libyan-conflict-may-be-used-as-bargaining-chip–analyst/
..due to vast numbers of Turkish troops militants and supported HTS etc…not wishing to confront Russia although even now Russia seems completely fed up with Turkey but their teminders of what is broken and fulfilled seems to syraight over Erdogan’s head….what is left untaken by SAA now will turning into a frozen conflict…. with Turkey launching occaisional attacks against SAA as a reminder of their power control and remove Assad standpoint.Otherwise an all out by Syria to retake all Idlib province would be severely damaging to it and take 5 years possibly. To me….just depends on the level of Erdogans bluster and or fanaticism of his seemingly mixed volatile personality…including apparently Turkish peoples support for Russia’s action in Syria has vastly declined and Erdo might view that he has popular support for his recent declared intentions to go at any time with huge build up of his military in Idlib. Which militants would see as tacit support rather than a cover for their withdrawal…their own fanaticism makes them wanna stay and Erdo does not want those troublemakers back in Turkey at least he was happy to pass them onto Idlib .
Strange times. Anybody else read the runes?