by Jorge Vilches for the Saker Blog
Europe has now painted itself into an infamous corner with only two choices left, nothing else. Both are definitely bad and terribly expensive — probably un-payable — in political and financial terms. On May 30, Brussels (a) dropped its previous declared strategy of ´buying Russian oil to prevent Moscow from selling it elsewhere at soaring prices´ (???) and (b) approved its sanctions package No. 6 imposing a ban on Russian seaborne oil imports. But by Christmas such ban will supposedly exceed 90% of total Russian oil as Germany and Poland have ´volunteered´ to reduce their own pipeline imports by then. Still, 65% of European consumers who today import Russian seaborne oil will suddenly face either one of the only two possible highly detrimental options explained hereinafter. Meanwhile the remaining 35% would theoretically benefit from the Russian Druzbha pipeline which will continue to safely feed them with the excellent Urals oil. But not quite and not really, because an ugly catch is awaiting Europe already cocked — line, hook and sinker — as if planned by its enemies, not its leaders as is the case. Migrations and unemployment cannot be avoided with the self-destructive ideology now rampant in the EU political mindset. Probably unknowingly, the EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen paraphrased Mao Zedong by considering this “a big step forward”.
Ref #1 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61638860 + Ref #2 https://www.rt.com/news/555989-eu-russia-embargo-explained/
the rub
There is a very important game-changing rub that short-sighted EU politicians haven´t yet fathomed, let alone sorted out. And it will hit them hard, head-on, blindsided without any protection whatsoever. Not even their favorite protection, i.e, political cover for an obvious self-inflicted harm that public opinion is now witnessing front & center. Because, as duly forewarned, there will be tons of very serious problems with the 65% of consumers using — and most negatively affected by — the new non-Russian seaborne oil blends which literally no one would be exempt from.
Not even the remaining 35% of supposedly “Druzbha safe” oil consumers. How come ? In one minute you´ll find out.
Ref # 3 https://www.rt.com/news/556292-eu-oil-embargo-ukraine/
atomic fall out
Apparently, European brains are AWOL. The sole exception could be Hungary (sorta) the most prominent amongst the opponents of the embargo comparing its potential effect to “an atomic bomb”. So now here we have the atomic bomb being dropped, although rather than an extraordinary explosion it´d be a silent implosion of sorts that not even Hungary has thought of. For, theoretically, this EU ban on Russian seaborne oil would not affect Hungary et al, at least for now, as they would supposedly continue business as usual (not). And supposedly the same would happen with refineries such as all-important Schwedt which, for the time being at least, same as Hungary will continue to receive the Druzbha pipeline feedstock all with 100% normality with excellent Russian oil they are most used to consume, process and refine regularly … But not quite not really anymore, because the non-Russian oil fed to the other refineries and other chemical processing plants in Europe (65%) will cause havoc with knock-on impact throughout the economy directly affecting the remaining 35% of supposedly still “safe” consumers that will continue receiving the Druzbha pipeline feedstock with excellent Russian oil. So, it´ll be an all-around contagious bloody mess.
scenarios
You just can´t have 35% of the plants processing and/or running with “good” Russian oil still fed by the Druzbha pipeline… while the remaining 65% run on “bad” unknown non-Russian seaborne oil. It just doesn´t work that way.
Basic laws of physics, chemistry, geology, logistics, engineering, politics, business and trade are being violated without mercy by such an approach. Economies are integral, non-divisible. Will any Karens fill up their fuel tanks with “bad” gasoline / petrol derived from “badly” refined non-Russian oil… or intermittently supplied at filling stations on and off as in now-you-have-it but then you don´t ? What about trucks and plant machinery ? Petrochemicals anyone ?
Will any businesses want to deal with and buy products from associates processing new, yet unknown non-Russian oil blends plagued with problems of every sort derived from their lack of proper matching with their now necessarily hurriedly modified & retrofitted processing plants ? Reference #3 below describes the severe harmful differences between Russian and non-Russian oil blends regarding reservoirs + investments + price + quality + quantity + delivery + refinery feed + Baltic ports modifications + logistics + refine-ability + vendor performance + contract sustainability,etc.
Ref # 4 https://10.16.86.131/dear-ursula-you-are-dead-wrong/
Option 1 (expensive) cheating
As European businesses know perfectly well, Option 2 simply means suicide, no doubt about it. So per Option 1 Europe avoids Option 2 and just plain cheats, still hurting itself badly by buying the very same Russian oil it says it´d be banning (not) but actually paying for it to third parties through “triangulation” which is far more EXPENSIVE. That´d mean that Russian oil would be sold to third parties as many times as needed so that the original Russian source can no longer be traced thus declaring it to be non-Russian and delivering it at European ports. This may also include STS or Ship-To-Ship transfers. Actually, even before being downloaded to the very first tanker somewhere in Russia, the now EU banned Russian oil could already be sold at least once, maybe more times. Of course, with each pass of hands, some mark-up is added to justify the investment…and the risk of being caught red-handed somewhere along the line. So the very same excellent Russian oil would get to Europe with at least a 35 to 50% higher price which would defeat the purpose of the EU Russian seaborne oil banning decision. Additional cheating could also include mixing Russia´s Urals oil with other third party blends of different origin OR tapping the South Druzbha pipeline branch into Hungary et al so better keep a close eye on that also. Still, whatever the cheats would still be far more expensive.
Option 2 (expensive) harm
If Europe effectively bans seaborne Russian oil for real, it´d fall into the infamous TRAP of ruining 65% of its industrial base through the failed attempt to use third party non-Russian oil blends with TONS of problems derived from the necessarily incomplete/unsuccessful attempt to adapt refineries and processing plants in 6 months time as repeatedly explained to death in deep detail and forewarning flashing signs at Ref #5 https://10.16.86.131/why-russias-oil-ban-is-impossible/
The EU would thus still have the remaining 35% of traditionally excellent products derived from the Urals oils blend delivered by the Russian Druzbha pipeline and refined and/or processed as usual INTERMIXED and “competing” in the very same European economy with a rainbow planoply of different products obtained from different yet-unknown oil blends (65%) through differently modified process plants and refineries which would not be a close equivalent of original Druzbha products obtained with this excellent, proven Made-In-Russia raw material which European refineries and processing plants are specifically tuned-in for. For Heaven´s sake which part of this is so hard to understand ???
worse of both worlds
In a sense, it´d be the worst possible of all cases. It would mean a wholly unfair competition as Druzbha pipeline fed plants would have tremendous advantages over those fed with the new unknown oils plus the corresponding retro-fitting / reconversion downtime (or plain non-performance) kicking them outright out of the market for unknown period of time possibly bankrupting them and creating EXTRA-ordinary logistics problems to consumers throughout Europe.
Allowing for the Druzbha pipeline to continue feeding 35% of Europe with excellent Russian oils will mean the perfect comparison standard of practice. And it would reveal the fallacy of the premise itself, i.e, that Russian oil can be substituted easily and without enormous great pain. But no rewinding is allowed, sorry. And history will not be kind watching how “the EU makes sure to phase out Russian oil in an orderly fashion, in a way that allows us and our partners to secure alternative supply routes minimising the impact on global markets” Who are you kidding Ursula ?
bad options
The new unknown oil blends cannot be described because they do not exist and quite possibly may never exist,
Russian Urals oil = enormous, well-known, geologically & physico-chemically stable reservoirs, reliable, well studied.
Unknown new oils = experimental mix from occasional “beach-front bazaar” vendors variable in time, not well coordinated. Venezuela oil, not good. Middle East oils, not available. Will North Sea supply ALL of Europe ?
In a nutshell, the world wasn´t anywhere nearly prepared for an EU ban on Russian oil… or other Russian fuels…
So now an EU Russian seaborne oil ban would require deep — and in many ways impossible – urgent modifications of European refineries and chemical processing plants throughout in order to adapt them to new yet-unknown feedstocks if ever possibly attainable as explained hereinafter. Instead of shooting itself in the head temple Europe now chooses to shoot itself in both knee-caps and both elbows…Is there not 1 thinking mind in Europe to stop this utter nonsense ?
European ports
Each and every European port will probably require modifications adapting to new handling, unloading, storage and additional delivery requirements of non-Russian oil from whichever tanker fleet is found, yet unknown, if any. This means building new dedicated facilities per specific consumer and tanker fleet needs (supposedly fixed, unchanging) in order to match the processing foreseen and executed until today with necessarily different Russian oils. As well known examples, below please find equivalent modifications to be urgently made at Baltic and North Sea ports which may also need to be similarly executed throughout European ports as needed. It´s an unfathomable mystery how all of this will be done simultaneously while maintaining current production at refineries and processing plants as current supply requirements dictate. Of course, countries will be selfish and, just as an example, Poland will not accommodate for German needs at its Gdansk Baltic port. Poland now has other priorities and helping out Germany is not one of them. This will severely affect German refinery logistics, most specially at Gdansk.
Baltic & North Sea ports
Rostock is a not-fit-for-purpose port with only tanker berth No. 3 which accepts crude oil with handling & unloading equipment also very limited. So upgrading and retrofitting is urgently needed plus specific dedicated facilities for storage and delivery capabilities. Also, Long Range (LR) 2 vessels are the maximum size accepted by this Rostock berth, thus limiting crude unloading volumes by each vessel. Furthermore, Wilhelmshaven (North Sea, Germany) and Gdansk (Baltic, Poland) also require dedicated storage + equipment for rather smallish yet frequent deliveries plus dedicated outbound logistics to Rostock port storage terminals which would be the only hub available in such area.
Rostock port in turn needs berth revamping for larger oil tankers from Wilhelmshaven or elsewhere plus dedicated equipment for larger, more frequent seaborne batches. Also required are logistics for internal delivery via inland waterways + rail + road inbound to both Wilhelmshaven and Gdansk dedicated storage terminals with additional linkage to the Rostock – Schwedt pipeline as the refinery just chews up unbelievable volumes of crude oil every day.
Both Wilhelmshaven and Gdansk despite already being large deep well-furnished ports still also require modifications.
Argenschwedt blues
Germany and Poland have also “volunteered” by Christmas 2022 to substitute Russian oil today delivered to both thru the Russian North Druzbha pipeline branch only for a few more months. This means — among many other impossible projects already described in detail — to find a solution for adequate feedstock delivery to Europe´s largest and most politically important refinery namely the troglodyte monster Schwedt that only T-Rex Russian oil can feed. So say no more and refer to fully seasoned Ref #7 https://10.16.86.131/germans-schwedt-hard-for-russian-oil/ whereby the more than obvious ´Krautensuiciden´ is described in detail. Just as teaser, please be advised that the Schwedt refinery “solution” goes far beyond Baltic and North Sea ports deep modifications. It necessarily also includes the Rostock-Schwedt pipeline enlargement, upgrade, and revamping, a real-life mission impossible under current circumstances where ALL of Europe is turned upside down indefinitely while it still needs to consume what is still being normally produced until today with superb Russian oil perfectly matching all current and future refinery needs. Please allow
me to repeat myself: It´d be like trying to change all four tires while the car keeps on running non-stop at 100 km/hr.
So don´t cry for Argenschwedt, but be reminded of the required new oil feedstock definition, testing and vendor selection, approval, certification & contract + retrofit and full revamping modifications per Option (3) + enhanced storage facilities + handling equipment for large & frequent batch deliveries. Without very deep and years-long modifications of the Rostock port, the Schwedt refinery will starve to death. And without the Druzbha door-to-door Russian oil feed — besides the poor quality of the non-Russian oil substitute and its probable non-matching with the pertinent technical requirements — the Schwedt refinery would chew up the largest possible Suez tanker in just 4 (four) days. Still, this is impossible today at Rostock port so a string of dozens of far smaller tankers would have to cue up like school children at the infamous berth No.3 the only one apt for oil handling and unloading onto yet to be resolved storage and transmission lines to the Schwedt terminal…and then onto the obsolete 1963 Soviet era pipeline today way too small to make any difference thus badly needing urgent enlargement. Europe has obviously gone full bananas trying to unnecessarily do all of that and plenty more by Christmas. This very bad idea should not end well.
And pray that trying to execute the required modifications with such an unbelievably tight and impossible schedule does not mean – as usual — any physical injuries directly or indirectly to anyone involved in new feedstock lines and infrastructure, an atmospheric distillation facility, a vacuum distillation system, a cat-crack unit, a visbreaking facility, an alkylation unit, a catalytic reformer, an isomerisation unit, and a very important ethyl tertiary butyl ether facility.
price
An EU Russian seaborne oil ban will shrink the number of vendors and the volume of oil offered to Europe very significantly thus ruining the supply side of the EU oil price equation. The much lower the supply, the MUCH higher the price. With Russian seaborne oil banned, the potential European supply is much smaller both in number of vendors and/or of the volume available for bidding. An unnecessary procurement mess, a harmfull self-inflicted policy.
Russian Urals oil = cheap, unbeatable, un-subsidized, already fully amortized facilities, in-expensive operation
Unknown new oils = unknown, but definitely FAR more expensive with terrific freight, logistics, and final delivery costs.
Not low enough – let alone very high prices — means disrupting the EU and the world with inflation beyond imagination
The unit price would not include pay-back amortization or the many huge investments / modifications / reforms made.
This means that the real effective price would be even far higher if the required monumental investments are priced in.
Ref # 8 https://www.statista.com/statistics/468405/global-oil-tanker-fleet-by-type/
Ref # 10 https://www.rt.com/business/556051-eu-new-gas-pipeline/
quality
Russian Urals oil = proven, fully vetted high-quality homogenous blend, low in sulphur, light- intermediate API gravity.
Unknown new oils = wishy-washy-iffy, does not even exist, will mean an engineering-chemical-logistics nightmare that does not bode well, and which will necessarily be heterogenous with batch to batch variations. A lower or mis-adapted oil quality would mean poor performance and operational risks with serious breakdown troubles and injuries plus down-time probably beyond repair at refineries, processing plants and final end use One single ‘bad’ batch would produce never ending down/time impact, damages, repairs, claims, potential accidents with possible injuries, non-compliance and altered delivery schedules, liabilities everywhere. It has happened before with non-Russian oils.
quantity
Russian Urals oil = unlimited, smooth, on-demand.
Unknown new oils = chances are that there is no enough volume available, not even in Africa, let alone Iran.
It´d also have to be “incremental” export volumes beyond current production for two reasons: one would be potential growth in EU demand and the second reason is that no vendor will leave traditional customers abandoned high & dry just because the EU has now gone bananas. Furthermore, these contracts could might all turn out being short-term ephemeral un-sustainable ´purchases of convenience´ with no future. Not enough and well delivered quantity means degraded European livelihoods and failing economy, with shut down plants and refineries affecting everything. Price would go up. Meanwhile, India increases its purchase of Russian seaborne oil by 25 times, that is 2500%. Just sayin´.
Ref. #11 https://www.rt.com/business/556345-russian-oil-exports-jump-india/
refineability
Russian Urals oil = efficient, well known, reliable with excellent guaranteed performance for decades allowing to refine with excellence a range of products including petrol (gasoline) diesel, aviation turbine fuel, LPG, extra light heating oil, heavy fuel oil, bitumen, benzene, toluene, xylene and sulphur.
Unknown new oils = fully unknown, risky, requires carefull constant testing of all-around refinery modifications (details on that later) adapting internal processes to new yet unknown oil blends required to remain constant for at least 30 years, preferably 50 years. No data possible yet. Lots of work yet to be done. Refinement process jeopardized, final distillates quantities and qualities unknown. Politicians believe that technical problems will always be solved by technical people. And though saying that contains a grain of truth, what about time, money and human resources ?
Technical people are not magicians.
matched & mated
Refineries are very closely matched and subtly calibrated to very specific and foreseeable supply feedstocks which are also very difficult to substitute and with great uncertainty regarding the final outcome. Changing anything either on the refinery side as well as on the feedstock requires lots of time, effort, money, dedicated facilities, experimentation, mistakes, trial & error, specific expertise, risk, and most important fixed, unchanging feedstocks always complying with specs. It´s not a “plug & play” substitute.
This means that Russia today supplies Europe with specific Urals oil that would be almost impossible to get from unknown third parties fast enough and cheap enough in enormous quantities. A very delicate and tight matching has already achieved between the European industry and reliable, vetted, well-known Russian oil vendors.
Ref # 12 https://www.ifo.de/en/node/69417
first-hand SKovacs
Many EU refineries have been built to process certain types of oils found in Russia. The very design & build of these refineries was based on certain specific oil types within narrow variation in blend/quality and steady supply — variation normally of less than 15% vol/day — guaranteed for over 30 years (most commonly 50+ years). Obviously enough, the continuous supply of quality feeds is critical to the operation of a refinery or any chemical plant.
complications
Adapting an EU refinery to new types of oils requires detailed laboratory knowledge of the new blend with constant composition and formal guarantees for its continuous delivery for decades, convoluted & lengthy contracts and procurement processes, extremely detailed engineering plans, manufacturing of parts, shipping, installation, testing, commissioning, optimization, permitting etc. etc. etc. before it can be declared “done”. Any element of this incomplete list, if missing, renders the whole affair a failure both technically and economically.
guarantees
The above assumes guaranteed efficient and continuous shipping and receiving network(s) are always in place and fully operational (!) Such work involves thousands of people, complex processes and of course many billions of euros, regulatory permitting process, inherent lawsuits etc., i.e. A LOT OF TIME – years. If Europe were also deprived of oil + metallurgical coal from Russia — and also iron ore — is unlikely to build much. Never mind the finer components that require other alloy metals which are also provided by Russia… Ref # 13 https://10.16.86.131/europes-mad-ban-on-russian-oil/
length of contract
Russian Urals oil = 50+ years, Made-In-Russia will be missed.
Unknown new oils = can´t know, but for decades-long contract requires mammoth reservoirs such as Russia has.
Christmas 2022
Every European refinery and chemical process plant affected (say, 65%) will now immediately require modification of internal processes adapted to new unknown non-Russian seaborne oils. This re-vamping and retrofitting will consume humongous amounts of euros, human resources, expertise, trials & errors, risk and lots of hard work and lots and lots of time. Plus all sorts of sensors, software & firmware modifications and purchase of new equipment. Unbelievably, Christmas 2022 is the simultaneous deadline for all of the above. Schedule non-compliance could lead to outward chaos by continuous damage beyond repair of machinery, processes, sensitive devices and installations that EU plants currently have in place. No equivalent madness has ever been planned and implemented except for enemies.
Apocalypses now
So the goal is to simultaneously modify all affected European chemical plants and refineries by adapting them to whatever non-Russian feedstocks of whatever quantities (better find enough…) quality and variations are effectively found, contracted and delivered by yet-unknown non-Russian vendors willing and able to deliver to Europe under current circumstances… Geopolitics anyone ? So the name of the game is to modify, adapt, retrofit for non-Russian substitutes of unknown origin with yet undefined all-around characteristics nor vendor track record. These oils would all be different and obviously not interchangeable. Possible storage and delivery cross-contamination are not allowed. Impossible having a “toggle-switch” for alternate feed of different oils to the same piece of equipment. No way.
Also this mammoth undertaking would have to be done without Russia´s accommodation meaning it´d be utmost difficult to phase-out of Russian Urals oil as gradually as needed while new non-Russian blends phase-in… while the rest still awaits modification thus still requiring Russian oil grades which Russia would not supply in the way that Europe would need to keep importing. Russia would have other priorities, not accomodating for European needs.
The EU today has highly sensitive plants finely tuned and used to Russian high quality oil during decades. And no plant will run without continuous, foreseeably constant feed of the right quality product in large enough quantities which most probably will grow in time as demand increases. Europe is now trying to change that in 6 months by executing 11 (eleven) new and very complex and unexpected projects just for the Schwedt Refinery alone. No Pre-Feasibility nor Feasibility studies whatsoever. If this were not a very serious matter I would take it as bad joke.
No batch system in the whole wide world no matter how well designed and built – Swiss and Germans included– is anywhere comparable to a modern door-to-door pipeline such as Druzbha. Tankers have a costly service life if only for the regulation/inspection requirements. So they are a higher risk and higher cost. Also there are negative seasonal availabilities of hydrocarbons and shipping vessels types and sizes which means lots of negotiation, coordination, funding, expertise, risk, new fixed and variable costs and surprises from yet unknown trade and business partners, new procedures, modus operandi, brokers, insurance companies, etc. Can´t make this stuff up.
Human resources are probably the weakest link with tons of people missing with yet to be defined job descriptions, yet to be interviewed, hired, trained, teams put together, deployed, etc. Current operational and maintenance + staff & field personnel would probably demand being switched to other jobs… or will drag their feet… or would simply resign thus necessarily compounding the problem to uncharted depths. New, young, inexperienced hands do not help under these circumstances.
The Schwedt Refinery badly needs a 200 km. pipeline upgrade + revamping on a partially-buried heavy structure built with obsolete materials and technology commissioned in 1963 and already repaired many times. The old pipeline trace goes through highways and urban areas, pristine environments, rolling hills, valleys and ridges, forests, rivers, lakes, home to fish and wildlife with strong winds, rain and snow. People will not like all of that in their back-yards.
This new EU plan needs to cover absolutely 100% of all of Europe´s current and future oil consumption, not just a part. Because Russia now has other priorities and will no longer cooperate with and adapt to EU needs in any way.
So forget about gradual Russian oil substitution. It´d be the opposite. For example, and just to entertain the idea, even if eventually achieving constant delivery of 75% fully-compliant non-Russian oil… it´d still mean digging a 25% deep hole into Europe´s economy, which Russia will not help to solve by supplying the missing 25% oil. This and other important matters led to the title of this article. Europe now will either cheat & pay more or harm itself beyond belief.
My suggestion is get out of Dodge.
Ref # 14 https://10.16.86.131/europes-mad-ban-on-russian-oil/
Dear God. The current Western politicians are even more incompetent than I thought; and I have an exceedingly low opinion of them, as I have to deal with their idiocy in the healthcare sector.
It is pretty clear that they are scrambling for the lifeboats. Bastards.
I was about to say may the Gods have mercy on us.
But then, as the saying goes, if the Gods want to destroy you, first they’ll make you mad.
So… I’m really not sure if asking for mercy makes any sense at all.
Gods are angry.
And they want to destroy us.
Ricardo, do not blame the gods:
“Against stupidity even the gods are powerless”.
“Only two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity, although I am not sure about the former” – Albert Einstein
You missed the game plan of US companies buying top Euro companies for pennies after their collapse.
Working as intended.
Now I finally understand why “Sanctions,” are a weapon. The article lays bare the reality of big oil as the situation accelerates and it’s as complicated as tossing a hand grenade in a trench. Your comment simply encapsulates everything, ”Sanctions away business as usually; USA.”
Until it doesn’t work any more. We have reached the pivot point, there is no turning back. I can feel the ground move from middle earth. Sanction no longer scare anyone anymore.
Thank you very much.
It’s not just that the puppet leaders are grossly incompetent. They have to be given how corrupt they are and how they I’ll gained their positions.
But also the west was conquered by hostile forces using fifth generation warfare.
Tje average person is oblivious to how much danger they are in.
Actually I think the average you refer to is in reality closer to 80%.
“Don’t underestimate your enemy”…..Western politicians know perfectly what they have been doing for a long time. Not only now when the shit hit the fan. It is all on purpose. They don’t give a f…k and care about us. Who? Davos crowd has been pushing transhumanism / technocracy / green energy transition in a broader strategic agenda: to bankrupt the current system (economically, socially and of course politically) in order to create supranational one world government, run by the few at the expense of so many (bunch of unelected beaurocrats brandishing with “democracy” slogans).
From internet (I) through internet of things (IoT) to internet of bodies (IoB)……….. e.g. 24/7/365 carbon footprint tracking per capita = unlimited control pipedream…………
So far they have been covering it all up smartly. Now (just finished WEF forum in Davos) they say it point blank, openly in public, because they are desperate following tectonic shifts in geopolitics since 24 Feb 2022. They do not give a damn about logic, common sense, science and fate of ordinary people. They hubris, greed for power and utter disdain for common people have been finally exposed. Only a moron would buy all this bullshit (energy independence by cutting off ‘Russian umbilical”).
Don’t allow any crisis to be wasted……..They know it very well. Try walk in their shoes……. Noone will give you as much as politician promises……. Therefore, by the US mid elections in November expect a tsunami of “green” propaganda as a remedy to safequard UE from those damned “Ruskies” and their “energy blackmail”…… What a perfect voting slogan, would you not use it?
What possibly could go wrong?
“Davos crowd has been pushing transhumanism / technocracy / green energy transition in a broader strategic agenda: to bankrupt the current system in order to create supranational one world government,”
Absolutely true. but their other huge agenda is depopulation – they have many ways to try and bring this about as we have witnessed in the last couple of years.
The “green” war on vital fossil fuels is another major one.
If gasoline in the US is up to $9 to $10 a gallon by fall I think the last thing the citizens are going to be concerned about is green propaganda. I would hope that most of the sleeping sheep will be seething red.
They say scratch a Green and just under the surface you find Red but – I would say that the USSR system was way more human orientated than anything these Greens are and their real agenda like that of the Davos crowd is massive depopulation.
They have a war on Carbon and we are those Carbon Units they want to get rid of.
Also note that they (the Western mouthpieces) still talk of Oil and Coal as Fossil Fuels which is a lie but it is one that promotes their agenda of Eco Fascism and Scarcity (which is great for milking the populace). There seemed to be more honest science coming from the USSR.
People need to wake up for the Davos / WEF / Trans humanism agenda is a catastrophe for us as species.
As H.L. Mencken once said “The urge to save humanity is almost always a false face for the urge to rule it.” That pretty much sums up the Davos freaks, and the green weenies.
Most certainly there will be atleast a second ‘storming’ of the Capitol, only THIS time around it will overmatch the projected media hysteria in the real – you cannot cheat the matrix only dampen the resulting effects – which they screwed big time, thus it MUST happen in real now and worse. Such are the eternal rules.
The Elites believe very wrongly they will control the ensuing chaos, while in real they will be controlled by the ensuing chaos – they were never in control to begin with, that is the lesson they will be teached now – a rather harsh awakening is waiting for them. Human costs ? Irrelevant when the thing comes to fruition – saturation will be total – number ratios will count a kind of “Stalingrad on steroids” on e new plane of dimension !
Good – benefits self & others
Bandit – benefits self while harming others
helpless – benefits others while harming themselves
Stupid – harms self at the expense of others
From the European citizen’s perspective, the EU leadership is Stupid.
From the Russian perspective, they are helpless.
Either way, the day is coming soon when Europe will experience a second French Revolution in each capital plus a possible sealing of the EU Congress building and burning the place down with everyone inside.
And it will serve them right.
Stupid people have no business in any position of power.
Most likely they will play title transfer games with some third parties. But as written above – that costs extra.
Another option is a version of the 90 days scam like they do with natural gas. That requires immense storage, probably floating aboard. Also expensive.
The greenies want the end of fossil fuels. What better way to get that than screwing up the refineries royally? People will have to get a belly full more of this chaos before they decide to put the greenies out to pasture…..or roll out the piano wire.
Events are being driven by the energy, military, and financial complexes without regard for the survival of humanity.
I opt for cutting to the chase and unrolling the piano wire.
this is being done on purpose to usher in the green new deal,the great reset,the trading of carbon credits which would be a global taxation system — https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2022/05/31/nec-director-brian-deese-defends-policy-as-u-s-economy-transitions-away-from-oil-and-gas-to-windmills-and-solar-power/#more-233689 ” What is being done by the government, in this decision to switch from an oil and gas economy into a wind and solar economy, is being done on purpose. Yes, everyone at every level of government, both political parties and every agency within it, and the entirety of the corporate media are pretending not to know this is the Green New Deal taking place.”
homer D & Clinteastwood
Thanks both for your valuable input which certainly makes all of us THINK… and that´s good !
Regarding renewables, we gotta be very careful because renewables do not really help.
“The more renewables you add, the more natural gas you need”
When renewables in large quantities are added to the electrical grid, costs go up – not down — as they have to be backstopped by thermal plants that today run on Russian fuels. .
Renewables have other known serious problems but also require humongous loads of Russian nat-gas, oil, coal, minerals and commodities. Wind turbines require thousands of tons of nickel and rare earths (from Russia) Any such large structures are moved and erected with Russian fuel-powered equipment. Solar energy requires silver beyond belief (Russia). Everything regarding renewables points to Russia.
As Russians have repeatedly said : if you don´t want us as friends (…and although we can be lots of fun…) we will not be offended. Let´s just be business associates. But please don´t make us your enemy. We do not want or need any enemies, and neither should YOU… (let alone nuclear hypersonic Russia)
Germany had 15 nuclear plants in operation. The last 3 operating nuclear plants in Germany were scheduled to be decommissioned permanently in 2022. Part of the “Green Agenda” in the EU is to eliminate nuclear plants. France does not approve this, but is having technical trouble with its nuclear plants. France has said it will shut down 50% of its nuclear plants for critical maintenance this year at the worst possible timing imaginable. Cordially Jorge
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-61298791
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/lighting-gas-under-european-feet-how-politicians-journalists-get-energy-so-wrong
The Green Movement is completely unaware of the concept of baseload. It appears that they think we “only” need significant energy during the working day, however the working day for many very critical industries now lasts 24 hours.
As to the “We’ll get around this with energy storage systems” it is useful to see how well such storage systems have worked in the past (when energy demands were considerably lower). Battery storage is NOT efficient (but very convenient) whereas pumped water storage is somewhat more efficient (in terms of energy recovered), but more capital and maintenance intensive. Lithium Polymer offers the best energy storage per kg battery (but has a known ignition risk). The Lithium Iron Phosphate battery system is safer, offers far better cycle lifespan (and charge retention) but has only 50% charge capacity / kg of the polymer system, and this appears to be a “hard” barrier.
Any storage system will have to be safe, efficient (space-efficient) and durable. The move from fission power (although very much a “Green Agenda” item) does seem extraordinarily short-sighted.
Phil,
The problem with Lithium batteries is they have woeful capacity at scale. To create a battery that can supply overnight drawdown for a city would have a price tag that would make you wince. Remember the magical Tesla facility in Adelaide, Australia? It’s only used as a smoothing device to store\release irregularities in power supply. It only stores a few seconds of the actual flow going through it, and the flow going through it is only a proportion of the small cities total supply. Maybe a thousand of them might be able to bank up the flow to supply overnight.
The hunt then naturally moves to ‘big scale’ approaches like hydro. In some places of the world they pump the water back in to the dam in the day and release it back at night. These kinds of approaches are flawed for most use cases because of the dreaded round turn conversion ratio. To push power in to a storage device then pull it back out each way loses power. Large scale storage generally have abysmal round turn conversion ratio’s. To make these kinds of techniques economical you need to have almost free energy, that’s also irregular. By almost free I include the asset needed to obtain the energy.
I think that the future of power is probably Small Modular Reactors(SMR) for baseload, feeding excess in to a store\release system like a salt water battery so irregularities in demand don’t create too much baseload waste.
“Regarding renewables, we gotta be very careful because renewables do not really help.
“The more renewables you add, the more natural gas you need”
When renewables in large quantities are added to the electrical grid, costs go up – not down — as they have to be backstopped by thermal plants that today run on Russian fuels. . ”
No matter how often one points this out and explains this point to the wind and solar crowd, they just don’t get it and ignore the basic issue of base load and the data on the rise in use of fossil fuels that tracks the rise in adding intermittent renewables to the grid. They double down on hope that somehow, with enough turbines, things will even themselves out.
As a committed environmentalist, bike rider, bag recycler—rasied in a very frugal fashion, as we had no amenities— I myself was a big proponent of the idea that enough distributed generation could be “coordinated” by “smart” grids and even out the problems of intermittent energy generation. But it just does not seem to be possible, so far.
It may be possible in the “micro-grid” scenario, if enough local distributed generation can be added together. Still, it is a big question whether a large collection of low-density energy sources can ever become independent of high-density energy sources.
Hello everyone, I live in Spain;
I have a country house in front of a Serranía sown of air mills and I am witnessed to see them many days without the blades and other days, half of them move.
How much energy generate I have no idea, not much I think.
Another mystery are the solar panels, also planted in the fields, on 2-hectare surfaces, without being connected to anything at first sight! And far from any electrical network.
I understand that important EU grants are received to plant them but the small print does not say anything that they have to be plugged in. Officially in Spain, 25% of electricity is “green” from which 20% of that energy is hydroelectric but in reports is not named with all its letters.
Removing Spanish corruption How many green energy is generated in Spain is still a mystery and in Europe?
Beware a rich man about to go poor
It is to be sincerely and deeply hoped that someone will lay Jorge’s article before the eyes of the European public and politicians.
The engineers and chemists probably know what nightmare is shaping up, but do the people?
Surely those who manage the Schwedt refinery are perfectly aware that they are being swept along in an insane self-destructive mania.
Where are Germany’s labor unions?
The whole thing is totally incomprehensible.
Green fanatics are destroying Europe.
Very good article by Patrick Lawrence on the erection of the new Iron Curtain.
http://patricklawrence.us/patrick-lawrence-the-new-iron-curtain/
Taffy, as always, many thanks for your much needed encouragement. Cordially Jorge
Taffy, me thinkx that the answer to your most valid objections is Option (1) re plain cheating that is buying the same old same old Russian oil only now by “triangulation” which avoids sanctions albeit at a much higher price.
With every new/mixed source of crude, new retrofit/modifications would be needed with all the added work it entails. :)
They better stick to Ural crude via third party at least then will have only logistical problems to solve. Replacing pipeline supply with Crude tankers will need storage facility for crude.
What a stupid bunch of people are these politician.
Cutting their noses to spite their faces.
Stupidity comes naturally to them or is it an acquired trait?
“What a stupid bunch of people are these politician…..Stupidity comes naturally to them or is it an acquired trait?”
I do not think they are stupid, greedy and craven for sure though. They are order taking puppets doing as instructed. They know to refuse their orders will be their destruction; either their fortunes, ‘reputations’, of lives will be forfeited by their hidden masters.
@grr
Yes, full of stupidity, immaturity, hate, ignorance, incompetence, corruption, greed, and completely lacking vision or/and wisdom. Could we summarize by saying that they lack any moral compass?
I think the way it works is that they don’t shift to governing, they just terminally campaign. The idea is; what can I say today that will keep my approval numbers up? That’s all. Next they let the permanent gov employees take care of the details.
Unfortunately I heat with LP gas. I wonder what that is going to cost this year?
Ok. What happens when they’ve cancelled their contract with Russia and then that oil and gas is dedicated to another customer? Surely Russia will take pity, cancel the new contracts and resume sales to Europe./s
EU sanctions Russian oil
EU should also sanction Saudi oil as their humanitarian standards are despicable
EU should also sanction Iranian oil
EU should also sanction Venezuelan oil, surely not buying from Chavez !
EU can then adopt the apt idea of sticking their heads up each other’s arses to stay warm.
Poland proposed to sanction non European countries that trades with Russia.
51 countries jumped on board Uncle Sambo’s sanctions from hell caravan directed towards the RF.
143 countries did not.
The Polenuts therefore want to sanction 80% of the planet!?!
What are those Warsaw wankstains on?….no, seriously, what are they smoking/eating/drinking/popping?….is it available over the counter?…
This appears to be an embargo rather than sanctions. Embargoes ARE regarded as an “Act of War”, and the EU bureaucracy would do very well to remember the cause of Japan’s attack on Pearl Harbour.
If they are hoping for a similar outcome (in their favour) along the lines of the Pacific aspect of WW2, they would do well to note that Russia has the means (and evidently the mind-set) to look after Russian interests very well, and US or EU “nuclear threats” or actions might not be quite so one sided as in the 1940’s.
I really do wonder what they’re thinking, these Eurocrats. They could just say no. But they don’t, they won’t, for some reason unfathomable to me they simply can’t.
Sooner or later the penny will drop, and they will realise that America has no interest in coming to their rescue. No interest in them at all, poor dears. They will then find themselves far up a very deep creek with one paddle in Eurasia and the other one in North America.
And western Europe as we have known it will fade into history. It will take its place alongside its Spanish, Portuguese, Dutch, Belgium and British empires as a thing of the past. And future historians will marvel and wonder, did they really not see that coming?
I admit I have been rather ignorant of oil grades, and the equipment requirements thereof, to the extent the author has explained them.
As the character in the Castrol ad used to say “Oils ain’t oils”.
Anyway now I have been educated by this article it is plain to see the madness and ignorance of the Euro lemmings.
Jorge, with India increasing it’s Russian oil imports 2500%, do they have issues adapting their refineries to a different oil type as you are saying Europe will have?
And if not I’m interested to know why that is. Thanks.
@Joe
Thanks so much for your question which expands OUR constructive debate among us all here. And I just love / need being here with you guys right now. It shows, doesn´t it ? This is home to me okay ? Besides, your comments give me ideas for my next article. And also keep me on my tip-toes because your folks ask sound, deep but ´friendly´ questions. Imagine Ursula and her gang asking me questions !!! And besides, when not here I miss you a lot… Buddy hand shake with you @Joe.
Yes Joe, India is no exception of course but the difference must be they have a VIABLE plan.
Europe has a plan also, but what they don´t know and don´t want to know is that it´s a CRAZY plan a NON-viable plan and just a back-of-the-envelope wishfull hissy fit of sorts, not a “Plan” or anywhere near it. The EU leadership just wants to make favorable headlines saying ´we did this´ and ´we did that´, etc.,etc. And so far they ARE making those headlines allright, but the problem is in the near future they´ll be making TERRIBLE headlines although not aware yet so for now just all smiles and photo ops and press releases with pim pum pam we hit Putin here and there yadda yadda paf pof as in comic books.
Now then, what plan does India have ? Well, I honestly dunno, really. But it must have some of the following, or otherwise they´d have the same problems as Europe will have basically improvising (badly) as they go along.
INDIA — or whomever — must be different in that
(A) Everything takes place with the command of a single country authority in charge: India´s national / federal authority, not a bunch of Eurocrats trying to make favorable headlines while losing their stupid war.
(B) That´s very different from the EU´s funny system of overlapping bureaucratic jurisdictions whereby decisions are made by 27 unanimous votes while limiting or even opposing decisions are made by individual countries. In other words, command & control is VERY different in India from the EU. And command & control matters LOTS here no room for dilettantes okay ?
(C) Seaborne deliveries: for whichever reasons we would both probably guess, India must have already got worked out the seaborne logistics with deep ports for large Suez vessels, the right berths, the right docks, the dedicated handling equipment and the dedicated storage and systems terminals required for anything from feeding pipelines (if any) to transferring the received oil wherever needed. For example a refinery sitting right there next to the docks meaning that the imported oil does not move and stays still only a short time right before being processed. Indians are smart and hard working people, no nonsense allowed…
(D) They could also have 1 (one) or 2 (two) or just very very few plants farther away now receiving the Russian oil thus having to modify internal processes (possibly simple, not complex modifications thanks to ad hoc lab work) in order to match and mate the CONSTANT quality Russian oil with (or to) a single GIVEN refinery or plant. Marriage, not promiscuous occasional dating, clear enough ? Mathematically it´d be a 2 x 2 matrix, NOT a sixilion by sixilion EU matrix… And by federal decision that plant or refinery in India will FOREVER be fed with one and the same CONSTANT Russian oil, not a “beach-bazaar” hodge podge mix of probably variable non-Russian oilssssss with an “sssss” meaning changes variability whatever… or plain discontinuity because because (the article explains it clearly…) sorry we can´t deliver the same oil as last time but we can get you some so don´t worry. Get the picture ? It is NOT plug & play. It is NOT dogfood. Russia is a proven, vetted, seasoned, reliable, trustable vendor that delivers a top quality CONSTANT oil in unlimited quantities, exactly what Europe needs…. Instead, the EU now will have a hard time finding (a) anything similar to a Made In Russia top quality and CONSTANT oil in unlimited quantities it badly needs (ask Schwedt) and (b) anything similar to Russia itself as a reliable and responsible vendor,
(4) OR India could just do thorough lab work with Russian oil samples and decide to have it as base stock to be mixed with whatever other CONSTANT reliable vendor they may already have from the Middle East (or wherever) but by mixing with Russia´s oil at 30% DISCOUNT everything works out right because the also very constant ME oil is compatible with the very constant Urals Russian oil …and both together in a given certain proportion already worked out at the labs also constitute a CONSTANT mix which happens to be compatible (or nearly compatible with minor processing modifications) at a GIVEN refinery with a GIVEN compatible process for such mix, for example. OR maybe they do have to modify — but only ONCE — a given refinery to be fed with a CONSTANT mix of oil containing 50% of Russian oil … or maybe 100% of Russian oil. I can´t know and the Indians will not tell us no matter how many times we ask. But it´s common chemical / physical sense. The scenarios are almost infinite same as the possible combinations. Still what really matters has been explained above pretty much
Joe, now on your own compare the differences with the EU today, doing AAAALLLL the refineries and processing plants modifications at the saaaaaame time throughout Europe in 6 months — not even 6 years would be enough — modifying EVERYTHING from docks to refineries and everything in between (LOTS) not even having the CONSTANT chemically and physically viable source oil as the new EU vendors are fully unknown today. See the sixilion by sixilion matrix now ? By the way, because of market tightness the EU could very well find itself with NOT enough vendors offering enough oil… Ever thought about that possibility ? Like the EU finds itself in the middle of a paint job with the bloody paint running out…
In sum, India has the enormous advantage ( a requirement really) of having a constant source of the very same and excellent Russian oil. So that´s something that Europe does not have, only a mix of unknown vendors and oil types. India may also have to modify refineries but ONE at a TIME … not AAAALLLL the refineries in Europe at the same time without even knowing what to modify for if the source oil is not known (!!!) and even when known it may still very well be constant allright but non-viable (Venezuela´s for example) or not available (Middle East) or not constant and then the modification would be for every single batch while the refineries break down miserably in pieces and deliver NOTHING to the market !!!! And when they do deliver it´d be all slightly different. Will BMW and Volkswagen like that ? How about Terex mining trucks ?
Joe, we can both think of many scenarios. I don´t know what India has been doing but (a) it must be WAY different from this messy contagious EU mess and (b) it must be working otherwise they would not have increased purchases of Russian oil by 2500% agreed ?
Please keep up the valuable input and questions and comments and objections. I love responding to objections because doing it convinces many skeptics that are now surely reading this but not participating
Jorge, Thanks for bringing a new kind of expert viewpoint to this community. The answer to the question raised by Joe is to be found in the following quote from the website of the Federation of Indian Petroleum Industry (FIPI) :https://www.fipi.org.in/we-represent.php
”
The Federation of Indian Petroleum Industry (FIPI) is an apex Society of entities in the hydrocarbon sector and acts as an industry interface with Government and regulatory authorities. It supports the Government in resolution of issues and evolution of policies and regulations. It represents the industry on various Government bodies, committees and task forces and has been instrumental in voicing industry concerns with various ministries and regulators.
It aims to be the most effective and influential voice of the oil & gas industry to facilitate its development as a globally competitive industry in India that enjoys the respect and trust of the society. Several Government policy initiatives have their genesis in its reports and publications, some of which are quoted in documents like the Integrated Energy Policy.
All major companies operating in the oil & Gas sector in India are members of FIPI. It has a Governing Council which is represented by the top-level executives drawn from the large oil and gas companies operating in India. It has a Director General as its functional head and leadership team consisting of experts drawn from the respective functional domains. It has 15 Functional committees which cover every aspect of the oil and gas business and are represented by senior professional executives from the member companies.
FIPI organizes seminars, conferences, workshops, roundtable meetings and brings out study reports to support the Govt. with evidence based policy recomendation.
Acknowledging the contribution of oil & gas companies, FIPI on behalf of the oil & gas industries organises annual award programme where the performance of companies are judged by a respected Award committee and an eminent panel of Jurys.
FIPI has tie-ups with international agencies like World Petroleum Council (WPC), World LPG Association (WLPGA), International Energy Forum (IEF), IPIECA and International Gas Union(IGU). FIPI was also instrumental in bringing CERAWeek to India.
FIPI, in association with World Petroleum Council (WPC) organises workshops and conferences on various topics of interest like Carbon Emission Management, International Cooperation & Sustainability, and Energy Storage Systems. These workshops are organised jointly with WPC and their findings are presented in a special session at the triennial World Petroleum Congress.
FIPI, under the aegis of the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas, Government of India provides support in organising Petrotech – an International Oil and Gas Conference and Exhibition which is the largest Petroleum Industry biennial event in South-East Asia.
FIPI participates in international conferences and exhibitions and is open to collaborate and forge alliances with international bodies and associations to promote the oil and gas industry and to serve the interests of its members.
On directives from MoPNG, a CGD Helpdesk portal has been developed at FIPI to provide a centralised platform to all CGD entities for raising their Government Department / Ministry related issues for required intervention at the level of MoP&NG.
”
So the Government does not take politically motivated technically stupid decisions. At least THIS government does not (it is full of people who have long ago renounced worldly pleasures and pursuit of ill-gotten gains and is motivated by a quasi-religious, nationalist, cadre-based organization like the RSS https://www.rss.org/)
Secondly, there are academic institutions which have been doing research and development in petroleum refining technologies so there is a steady input of young engineering talent into the hydrocarbon industry that has been going on for several decades. Most senior professionals are local talent who have been nurtured and mentored locally.
Thirdly, there are huge petrochemical complexes like this https://www.ril.com/ourbusinesses/petroleumrefiningandmarketing.aspx “The Jamnagar manufacturing division is the world’s largest refining hub.”
and this https://www.ongcindia.com/wps/wcm/connect/en/about-ongc/ongc-at-a-glance/corporate-profile/
“ONGC is the largest crude oil and natural gas Company in India, contributing around 71 per cent to Indian domestic production”. They have the built-in capability by design to adjust their process flow to whichever oil feedstock is currently most economical. They are not firmly tied to long term supply contracts with any one vendor, unlike European refineries
The Government of India has asked state-run companies to consider buying Russian oil assets.
https://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/centre-asks-state-run-companies-to-consider-buying-russian-oil-assets-122042801291_1.html
Besides, India gets a hefty discount of $35 per barrel over the prewar price https://www.livemint.com/news/india/russia-offers-oil-to-india-at-35-bbl-discount-from-pre-war-price-11648704105136.html
So, India has good reason to ramp up imports of Russian oils, rejected by Europe on political grounds.
Latest on this topic
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/russia-uses-chinese-ships-and-indian-refiners-stay-ahead-oil-sanctions
Excellent.
You contribute a great deal to this blog. If you have a professional connection who has your level of knowledge about the Electricity Grid ask them to drop an article, so the economic and social horror that awaits us all might get the attention of the stupid voters.
Social Security and free money is the new all powerful opiate of the West. No heat, no food no free money might get some votes or a lot of blood on the streets.
Aaron, thanks man ! And as a matter of fact I do know savvy people in the Electric Power sector but them are “captured” by the system and just play games here and there. Not many people are willing to expose themselves saying the real truth and risking their jobs while they are at it. Still, many thanks to you Aaron from Jorge
“And by federal decision that plant or refinery in India will FOREVER be fed with one and the same CONSTANT Russian oil, not a “beach-bazaar” hodge podge mix of probably variable non-Russian oilssssss”
On the basis of the info Jorge has provided on the match-up between oil characteristics and refining infrastructure, this looks like a biggie.
If India makes a long-term deal with Russia for a high-volume oil supply, that justifies making big investments in custom-tailoring refinery characteristics to that oil.
Comparable to the long-term investment of building a gas pipeline. Only long-term contracts can ensure financing of the construction/maintenance/operation, reliable payment of bonds, dividends, or whatever (not a financier).
This is why the EU idea of forcing Russia onto its “competition” model and sell gas on spot markets etc. was utterly stupid.
It is one of the causes, IMO, of the whole Ukraine crisis. Because terminally moronic, opportunistic politicians and oligarchs in Ukraine tried to take advantage by playing both sides against the middle.
(As soon as I read about the Power of Siberia pipeline, a few years ago, I bought some Gazprom stock for my old age. Fortunately I sold it at a modest profit before the ax fell on trading any Russian shares on US stock markets. Now my remaining five shares are like a stuffed owl in a glass cabinet!)
And now, the EU is messing up even bigger, screwing the oil supply, too, where the volume/quality/consistency/reliability are even more axiomatic.
Taffy, spot on, 100% right. Excellent summary of yours. Cordially Jorge
Jorge
My two cents worth. India and China have many refineries each one designed based on the range of crude properties. It seems in India many refineries use medium sour Oman spot crude which is some what similar to Urals crude. So, refineries can use Urals with minor tuneup.
https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/032422-middle-east-crude-grades-feel-the-pressure-as-russian-urals-head-to-asia
SMarsh most valuable input of yours with the kind of detail that scares the devil. Good data, please keep them coming. Cordially Jorge
SMarsh you say,
“It seems in India many refineries use medium sour Oman spot crude which is some what similar to Urals crude. So, refineries can use Urals with minor tuneup”.
https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/032422-middle-east-crude-grades-feel-the-pressure-as-russian-urals-head-to-asia
SMarsh, thanks for comment, but now then focusing a bit here — and even if the tuneup of the Oman oil ends up being really “minor” as you say at EVERY SINGLE refinery in Europe (I seriosuly doubt it) — 2 (two) HUGE problems remain.
First, ALL of them doing such modifications and tuneups at the SAME time with terrifically strict deadline. Second, a loaded question that everyone knows the answer to. Is there ENOUGH Oman oil (or equivalent) to subsitute for Russian Urals ? With the added complication of seaborne batch deliveries also ? No, of course not, not even close. Russia is the T-Rex of European troglodyte crude oil consumers. I´d say that the problem that Europe has just set itself up to is being short of QUANTITY of the right QUALITY in a context of constant change
Looks like Russia needs to stay in Ukraine until their current government collapses so Russia’s pipelines through Ukraine can sell in Rubles to Europe, or at least Hungary & Serbia.
Well the Long Range 2 (“Aframax”) Tankers have a carrying capacity of about 750,000 barrels of oil, so one will keep Schwedt running for just over three days . . . . .
Useful comparison of tanker types via this link – https://www.saferack.com/glossary/tanker/
When people hear of an “oil crisis” they think of immediate uses that impact them (transport and heating). Problem is the petrochemical industry, along with the “energy” industry, reaches ALL parts of our lives. Obviously plastics / polymers, but also many “invisible” areas such as printing inks, pharmaceuticals (ALL Pharmaceuticals!), medical and industrial gases (polymer based sealing rings / membranes), power transmission (transformer and LV switchgear oils), agriculture (fertilisers, pesticides, delivery / application systems), refrigeration and storage systems, the list goes on and on.
The guaranteed potential for a SIGNIFICANT knock-on effect is evident. Sudden unavailability of key intermediates (especially in the current era of “just in time” delivery) WILL lead to disruption and shortages in essential materials. Right now there’s a Global shortage of the drug Oxybutynin simply because of a shortage of ONE intermediate compound, and we’ve seen similar “one intermediate causing Global supply problems” many times in the recent past (e.g. the total Global disruption in supply of the IV antibiotic / beta-lactamase inhibitor combination Tazocin a few years back).
It will be the “little things” that cause the biggest problem – things such as specialised O-ring seals, composite seals, or custom boutique polymer mouldings – those “industrial consumables” without which the process stops.
All aspects of modern manufacturing are as optimised and finely balanced as the very best mechanical pocket watch technology, and the deliberate actions of the EU’s “leaders” are more analogous to smacking said watch with a 1kg lump hammer, that “just” sticking a wrench in the system!
If this craziness does come to pass, it’ll have far reaching effects on not only the EU’s “captive population), but everyone else too.
Phil S.
Your “just in time” considerations are of utmost importance. The current “just-in-time” world would obviously not function without proper and constant “just-in-time” deliveries. This will impact consumer-based economies.
WITH Russian oil European plants + European industry + European transportation etc etc (… even European military, imagine !… ) were all very stable. WITHOUT Russian oil they will all suddenly become unstable and uncertain. ´Just-in-time´ will be replaced by ´barely-alive´ methinkx. Many basic things today taken for granted will suddenly have major significance. Cordially Jorge
Well you’re definitely missing the one and only point, which is that even before Christmas, Putin will be dead, killed by his military in a coup over the unacceptable Russian dead from his failed as attempt to conquer supreme Ukraine. By October armies of Ukie tanks will be running for Moscow.
So all these new sanctions will not be applied by then and the new US puppet installed in Kremlin will literally open the tap and give away their oil and gas for pennies to Europe, while totally shitying off supply to China. Thereby causing the collapse of China’s economy.
No stone kills 2 birds! The ultimate in US Hybrid War!
You can take this to the bank. The Europeans are not stupid. They saw the coming future.
/end sarcasm
Yep, Mr Novichok Navalny will be sitting in the Kremlin and Pussy Riot will fill in all the executive positions of Government.
Hunter ‘junkie’ Biden will be the new CEO of Gazprom.
The bells will ring throughout Yankee Natoland in celebration, yeehaaaw!
LOL!
The Clintons will become Czar & Czarista
Kill European industry and kill Europeans for the Davos Reset. Bloody good idea.
Merry Christmas and here is a lump of coal from Transgender Santa.
That lump of coal which you won’t own and you’ll like it.
Another winner Jorge, you’re destined to be offered a position at the European Commission. Hell you even could replace Von der Lederhosen. Wait, you’d have to relinquish all ties at The Saker, branding them anarchists.
How she and her ilk retain their jobs comes down to never having to face re-election. I hope you’ve forwarded this and previous related materials to the Commission. Don’t these idiots have whole Departments of people for appraising such projects. Shows us the amount of waste that goes on throughout these institutions, starting at the top. Still, remember Greenspan at the Federal Reserve saying he had 2000 mathematicians at his disposal, yet no one seen economy falling over a cliff.
Listen, I thought that you just pour stuff in one hole, toss in a few chemicals and hey presto, straight into your tank and off you go.
It’s a pretty complicated process, eh? I remember reading a few year back that around 30 cars burst into flames in Nigeria having filled their tanks with the wrong specification of premium motor spirit (PMS). You have to ask yourself what happened to SGS Port/Custom Inspection? How could it get through to some Tank Farm and onto the petrol station? Obviously the specs used for Africa are different to European engine requirements in terms of combustibility.
The AfD Party in Germany, other opposition Parties in European countries for example should be all over this, but the truth is they are ‘All-One-Of-The-Same’.
WTFUD, thanks your comments make the difference and oblige me to keep publishing in “The Saker”. Here you guys make me feel at home. Cordially Jorge
Jorge – a LOT of us look forward to your postings, and your replies are always both useful and welcome! You are a very “key member” of the Saker Contributor Community!
“Schedule compliance”: good luck with that. Everything will be behind schedule from before it begins. There simply is not enough time to properly plan and execute any single one if the necessary projects. Maybe if the best of the best in these fields were put to one of the refineries with an unlimited budget and no red tape. Maybe. Probably not, but maybe.
Lex, I agree 100%. Thanks for your input. Cordially Jorge
I heard of a plan to obtain Algerian oil, problem is, is that the Algerians have a high methane pollution rate from a lack of equipment maintenance, this would normally be punished for greenhouse gases contribution to global warming and sanctions placed on them.
But since this is an extraordinary event, that can be overlooked in the name of energy independence, I don’t know who at the end of the day stands up in front of the global judge to explain this hypocrisy, but I know it wont be me.
As an “accelerationist” I can only hope for acceleration. Bring it!
Bring it NOW.
I am getting older. I am not interested in having the Boomer evil visited on my children. Bring it TODAY.
I am waiting for it. Ready. Eager (better me than my kids). Bring it.
Europe and the rest of the West has backed their people to perfectly into a corner for this to be run of the mill incompetence.
No other feasible explanation than this is their intent.
To what means? Usher in a “great reset”? People still have to eat, buy gas and heat their homes in the meantime.
Force people to sign on for all out war against Russia? That ends in a nuclear exchange.
There is no way they can even build the infrastructure for their green new deal BS within a time frame that would save what is left of the economy and society.
Makes me think a big, big war is coming like we have never seen before.
Jorge,
I really appreciate reading these detailed, well written pieces of yours. Truly incredible to live during these times. My take is the highlighted stupidity of the collective WEST is being done to actually incite upheaval in all and every one of it’s jurisdictions. Fear seemingly doesn’t factor into any of their egregious “decisions”. It’s going to get mighty ugly in the next year or so.
Archie, thanks for your favorable comment. And I agree that ” It’s going to get mighty ugly in the next year or so.” Cordially Jorge
I believe the refinery problem can be overcome. Note for example that without any great difficulty India shifted to importing Russian crude. What they are now not importing will be available and could just go to Europe. The big deal is that the market for oil is global. If Europe imports oil from somewhere else, that ‘somewhere else’ oil was going somewhere, and wherever it was going, they will have to buy oil, thus a market for Russian oil.
It all comes down to transportation and cost. If they can ship the oil around to new locations fast enough, a lot of oils can be substituted with proper blending. That is one big ‘if’. Apparently Europe isn’t going to be able to come up with enough oil quick enough. And natural gas is a bigger problem. The stuff is a natural for a pipeline but is hard and expensive to haul by whatever means. Plus if they stay with there current policies it will all cost a lot more permanently. Probably hitting Western Europe worse than most other locations.
Venezuela has huge reserves, but it is all very heavy and does require the specialty refineries that we have. I believe they blend it with lighter oils because it is such sticky goo that is inconvenient to handle in its native state. Plus they haven’t been maintaining production. And nobody wants to stick money into the country because things have a way of getting seized. Arabia won’t pump more because they don’t like us. And apparently most everybody else is pumping oil at the natural depletion rate. Pump too fast and it is apt to damage the well. So… either the world consumes less oil or the sanctions are a bust. My advice to Russia is to be in the planning states for shipping their raw materials to new markets, just in case this stuff doesn’t go a way. But then the probably are even without my advice.
Hi John Stone and thanks for your valuable comments that certainly contribute positively to the debate. I fully agree on your take regarding Venezuela oil and Middle East oil. I also agree in that ” the market for oil is global” and the consequences that you infer. Regarding India above @Joe asked a question my answer to which I believe would interest you. Please scroll up and find my longuish answer to @Joe´s very short question regarding India.
(…” …I believe the refinery problem can be overcome…”…)
John, I´d prefer to call it the “refinery-OIL problem” not the “refinery problem” that you mention. Because the refinery is matched and mated for a given (and constant !) oil. Refineries do not refine just any oil. It is not plug & play, nowhere near that. So it´s a “specific refinery – specific OIL” happily married coupling for many years to come. Accordingly I do not understand — or possibly I do not agree — when you say that …” …the refinery problem can be overcome…” If we don´t even know what OIL the EU will find in enough quantity, quality and type (BTW, they don´t either !!) and which of the hundreds of REFINERIES we are talking about… and in view of what you correctly explain regarding world oil markets… well then how can we say that such “problem can be overcome”. We can´t know that until both the right oil is locked in the required amounts and terms of delivery … and corresponding refinery is adjusted to it, if all possible which is not always the case.
My first question then being which problem are you referring to as we don´t know neither the OIL nor which one of the many hundreds of refineries and their corresponding tuning / matching / mating for a given specific oil we could be talking about.
Please allow me a zoological example. The problem is finding the right elephant / trainer couple. By elephant I mean a heavy set animal representing the right and always constant oil delivery in large enough quantities. By trainer I mean the refinery finely tuned / matched to train such specific elephant. The problem is not a pride of lions chasing a whole bunch of deer. Fast moving vessels delivering whatever is not the problem because vessel speed would not really matter that much, and the “whatever” oil is impossible to process if not the approximate type with constant and large enough deliveries.
I don´t know what you might mean by ” It all comes down to transportation and cost ” Or maybe I might cordially disagree. And of course many oils just cannot be blended to obtain something meaningful and adapted to a given refinery. So, big messy mess for the EU now
Is it too early to wish the morons in Europe a very merry Christmas? Oh wait, the Grinch stole it.
i think you’re right. Perhaps nuclear exchanges limited to European soil? Both the U.S. and Russia know the ultimate red lines regarding nuclear exchanges on their respective homelands, but that doesn’t really apply to Europe, does it. The U.S. signaled their disinterest in what happens once the Congress reimbursed their elites for their $40 billion failed investment. So how little of Europe can be made radioactive without triggering a great conflagration?
This reminds me of a humorous story of Mulla Nasruddin. The Sultan is tired after a week of horse riding which has shaken his bones. He suddenly gets an inspiration: What if my horse can fly? He calls his Wise Man Nasruddin and orders him to teach his horse to fly otherwise he would be beheaded. Nasruddin thinks and says “Oh Sultan, this is a difficult and expensive task. But if you are willing to bear the cost, I can teach your horse to fly in twenty years” The Sultan is very pleased at having solved his problem in an innovative fashion. Later, a friend asks Nasruddin “How could you agree to such an obviously impossible task?” Nasruddin replies” Think of it this way: in twenty years, I might die. Or the Sultan may die or the horse may die. If none of this happens by a miracle, why the horse may actually learn to fly!”
The moral of the story is: all kinds of charlatans will come forward to participate in the plainly impossible task that Jorge has meticulously described. They will claim to have done “their” part property and blame the failure to deliver the ultimate results on somebody else. In short, it is a scam to rip off the stupid citizens of the EU and fill coffers of dishonest players. Unfortunately, this is what the West has taught itself to be the height of business acumen. It has also internalised the notions of “All is fair in love and war” and “collateral damage is unavoidable in war”. Well, they are about to get a taste of both very up and close and personal.
esskumar, thanks for the comment and a certainly good story I will share with family and friends !
Esskkumar.
Yes, the whole thing reeks of three-card monte.
Guess which card the oil is under now!!
Thanks Jorge for the blow by blow demolition job on
the collective European economies,what a ridiculous
situation these neoliberals have created for their societies.
Thanks Aussie for your favorable comment. Cordially Jorge
“Russia’s flagship crude grade, which was sold mostly to Europe before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, is still selling, but predominantly in Asia, and at a huge discount to Dated Brent.
The price of the key Russian export grade, Urals, averaged $73.24 per barrel between the middle of April and the middle of May, according to data from the Russian Finance Ministry cited by Bloomberg. The price of Urals was nearly 32 percent lower than the average Brent Crude prompt futures price during the same period, per Bloomberg’s estimates.
Urals has always sold at a discount to Brent, but the spread widened to record highs following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The discount of Urals was fewer than $2 a barrel to Brent at the beginning of this year, only to widen to more than $5 per barrel on the day Russia invaded Ukraine.”
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Russian-Oil-Sells-At-Huge-Discounts.html
Ernest, valuable data there. Please keep it coming, it is certainly helpfull. Cordially Jorge
Russia’s budgeted crude price for this year was $49. At $73 they’ll cover all those pesky known unknowns.
In the transport industry it is a known process to load a shipment, go deliver, get new paperwork form the receiver, and deliver the untouched goods to the actual destination as the product of the middleman. Alternatively you get to reload the same goods in a different trailer, hook up to it and boogie. Internationally, with any sort of goods from refrigerated to auto-parts.
Have been the driver for about 10 of these transactions across national borders over the years.
What you get is higher prices and questionable quality and plenty of corruption/slash funds, criminality.
Thanx for the technical details! If I have one bone to pick it is, that the results are not a bug – but a feature. The process is planned and malicious by design – as the green agenda is, well, it is an organic segment of it a`la coal, ETC…
Now who’s going to be in the %35 category receiving the proper blend from the Druzbha pipeline and who’s the other %65 unlucky ones not getting it? I bet Germany will be in the %35 category and those mostly around the Mediterranean in the %65.
maskazer, thanks for the question.
The article includes a map of the Druzbha pipeline with both branches North & South. The Druzbha South branch got the exemption to the benefit of Hungary et al. The Druzbha North branch would benefit Poland and Germany but apparently them both “volunteered” to self-harm themselves and cut-off imports by Christmas 2022. The rest of Europe had been receiving Russian seaborne oil but now wil be cut off from them. So it´d be only Hungary et al covered by the Druzbha SOUTH branch that ´benefit´ from continued pipeline supply of Russian oil. Germany and Poland voluntarily resigned to their Druzbha NORTH supply of Russian oil. Go figure.
Still, as the article says from the very beginning, all them immersed in the same European economy won´t really benefit much because the impact of this decision will be felt throughout. That´s the catch, the rub that will bite them all. Cordially Jorge
It is hard to imagine that Ukraine would allow the continued transmission of oil through the southern pipeline in the event that the war continues into the next year. Hungary and Austria will be in a hard place along with thew rest of the EU.
The tyranny of reality will crush EU snake oil dealers.
According to 2 wellknown Greek analysts, Europeans will continue to buy Russian oil but their hands will be clean and their wallets will be lighter. Middlemen will supply Russian oil under tactful anonymity (at a price) through Greek shipowners registered in Liberia and manned by Filipinoes.
This in addition to the “nuclear option” of incompatible new blends mentioned by the author.
They used to make “stupid Pole” jokes. But today: How many Europeans does it take to open an oil tap?
A.Deplorable hi there !
It´d be great to have a link to the papers or articles or whatever to the 2 wellknown Greek analysts. Because, oh yes, certainly we definetly agree. What you are mentioning is analyzed in my article above per “Option (1) expensive cheating” so it´d be nice to have more details from the Greek analysts regarding how much lighter would the European wallets end up. This Option (1) may actually be what Europe actually does as Option (2) is suicide. The article mentions it and they know that in Europe by now. And those that don´t soon will realize.
Despite the incompatible blends problem explained therein the “nuclear option” is actually not mentioned as such. But the “atomic bomb” example is actually mentioned but as explained by Hungary´s President Orban although in a slightly difference sense. Still, doesn´t change much, does it ?
I expected as such, the ever-growing increase in oil prices will force into compliance populations to accept the green agenda without risking a total collapse of the EU. All of this while pretending Europe is opposing Russia. Politicians hypocrisy at its finest.
Smoke and mirrors ….. This is not happening because of incompetence or mistake ….. What we’re seeing is a push towards Global Governance that is being camouflaged and cloaked in humanitarianism, multiculturalism, as well as environmental threats such as global warming in order to condition the population into accepting globalization and with it a One World Government. In order for this to occur the elite are creating a global financial crisis the likes of which the world has never seen. Out of the ashes of this financial crisis the public will be told that the only way to stabilize the world economy and save what little remains of the public’s wealth, is the creation of a New International Economic Order.
why would the globalist elite collapse the world economy, wouldn’t they destroy their own wealth in doing so and the answer is no. Over the past 15 years the elite have been slowly consolidating their wealth in order to protect it. When the world financial system crashes they’ll be positioned to buy whats left for pennies on the dollar. Where does this leave the rest of the world financially? The answer is in bondage to a Socialist World Governmental System. You see the truth is everything around you is being engineered towards this one goal including you.
When you analyze this specific issue as Jorge has done around the oil/natural gas it makes zero sense from a logical/moral standpoint of preserving the economic stability/industry of the EU/NATO for their respective citizens.
I just can’t wrap my mind around it unless there are other more sinister factors at play. Even here in the US I was filling up at Costco this evening and the lines were long and it took 60+ dollars to fill up a tank that was a little under half full on my SUV, a full tank would have been around $120 for about a 22 gallon tank. I have the money so it’s not a huge inconvenience for now but I was remarking to my son that for the first time I would be voting in my life (I don’t really believe in US politics) against any Democrat at the national level and would be voting against Biden/Democrat if he runs for reelection. My son who is 10 years old has always found it extremely odd I do not vote in any elections, asked my why I would be voting in the next set of elections. I was honest and told him I couldn’t come to any conclusion other than that Biden and the Democratic Party(and the GOP also) are actively trying to destroy the country.
The same applies for the EU/NATO/Ukraine( with perhaps the exception of Hungary), seem to be actively destroying their economic and industrial bases as well as long held principles about property ownership/non racism/etc it makes no sense. Everyone but the elite is confused by this, even independent media in the US is confused, they don’t know what the narrative really is, the hosts of one of the shows I listen to were talking about how Putin might be really sick/have cancer/etc. almost gleefully while not factoring that even if that were the case(I don’t believe it is) and he died, that really wouldn’t fix any of the structural problems. I also thought if we are questioning the health of Putin why not question the health of Biden who seems clearly confused/is having speech issues daily and is clearly making disastrous decisions sometimes daily and looks out of control compared to Putin.
I gotta agree with others, leadership is not this stupid even though we may wish to think so, there are larger plans afoot somehow and whatever the plan is , it’s not going to be good for the average person.
I think in the core of Jorge’s excellent article is “suprising fact” that all oil is not the same. Likely 99,999% of people are still thinking that it doesn’t matter where nations and companies are getting their crude oil. But isn’t it same with let’s say wood? There are huge differences using wood coming from cold boreal forest zone to that from Uruguay or even from southern Germany. People of construction and paper mill business know these facts.
Even without these decisions Europe generally would have been doomed to be marginalized as minor player in world economy. Now thanks to boneheaded play by EU the process to world where China-India axis will dominate 70-80% of world trade will speed up. Actually we are moving quite normal times. In mid 18th century China-India axis has same share of world trade. This reveals how transatlantic centric our history books are.
Some EU based manufacturing plants are considering to reshoring their investments where Russian and other cheap energy available countries otherwise these products not going to competitive. I know US is take advantage on this chaos created by US for their own sake
Travis, thanks for the input. And yes, true enough, oils are all very different ! Venezuelan oil in many refineries would just produce grease and coke, not much gasoline for example.
In Europe, at least 50% of cars and almost 100% of trucks are diesel-powered. Because of that, European refineries are currently finely tuned to distill tons and tons of diesel from Russian Urals crude. Of course, switching these European refineries over to different and varying types of other crude blends will take an enormous effort and time that we have described herein. But them better produce tons and tons of diesel fuel.So then which crude oil blends — basically from where, which reservoirs — would be most similar to Russian Urals ? Apparently not many, maybe none in enough continuous quantities. Russian Urals have a Nelson Complexity Index refinability of 9.8
Interesting article.
But a bit too long and repetitive. With respect the same could have been said in half the words.
Also it ignores that some EU countries are used to other oil sources.
UK does not use much Russian oil.
Germany and Poland do.
Most likely a French refinary or similar will be adapted of not already adapted and then be distribution point.
Transport costs for oil will increase but I don’t think the be impact on EU will be as severe as stated. Dumb as the EU is the have a plan
Let’s see how it works.
@Truth Seeker, thanks for your comments and for finding my article interesting. Your critical thoughts are also very well taken, but I will reply to those a bit later as right now I am VERY short of time. Still, please allow me to briefly respond to the initial part of your post although I could (and possibly I should) reply to you thoroughly and in length.
But this is not about me. Obviously NO, it is not. So regarding this subject please be advised that I have (a) tried everything IMAGINABLE and also far far far beyond in every single sense, to absolutely NO avail and (b) I will not ever deviate from the overwhelming success finally obtained and enjoyed with this very exact way, lengthy as it is (YES) repetitive as it may be (YES) and rather technical (funny you didn´t mention it)(also with a very loud YES). And certainly with a very peculiar style which some important people you get to read daily have called “rare” and “populistic” whatever that may mean in this context.
As we speak I am receiving offers from massively read blogs offering me to publish therein after having sent them (with acknowledged receipt) in the recent past DOZENS of my drafts in many different styles, lengths, and content, again to no avail. So I now find myself in the very ackward situation whereby high level massive-audience “famous” blogs have decided to RE-publish what you have been getting to read in “The Saker” all along and which after not accepting my original drafts for many months now wish to publish me first with them. My answer is NO and will remain NO. I will just keep publishing only here in “The Saker” with the very same successfull style and format which thanks to the freedom of written speech allowed by its editors Andrei and Amarynth gave us all the opportunity to address this enormous problem in a very successfull way. And I also learn a lot right here in this comments section as explained many times already. And that´s one of the reasons why I feel at home right here. So to make a long story short, the current all-around “formula” for my articles here in “The Saker” shall remain unchanged in view of the outstanding success made obvious by very different and objective indicators some of which I can only know about per the direct impact I receive privately, including favorable comments from top level EU politicians and (today) one Nobel laureate in economics. And so be it
@Truth Seeker
Oh yes, I fully agree. Like EVERYTHING could certainly be gloriosuly summarized in 3 short words, period
(1) Buy Russian oil (minimum length)
(2) Buy the bloody Russian oil (better yet)
(3) Just buy all the bloody superb and cheap Russian fuels as former German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder thought it out bottom up, top down, sideways, crossways, you name it and in the late 1990s reached the conclusion that Franz should marry Natasha and so now we have plenty of healthy children (Europe) that crave for delicious and cheap Russian food that Natasha prepares every single day.
But beware, to make your case details are always demanded by your audience, otherwise your opinion is as good as mine, be carefull. So be it.
And to make a VERY long story short the truth we both seek Truth Seeker ends up with my current tremendously successfull all-inclusive, repetitive & longuish just-read-me-first-then-ask format here in “The Saker” now my home. Plain do not waste time I am not changing anything at all and not moving anywhere I don´t even care about famous New York / London MSM already been there done that got the T-shirt for many good reasons made clear already. I am pushing 75, end of story.
Now then, re ” (some) … EU countries are used to other oil sources. UK does not use much Russian oil.” Oh yeah, sure enough, so what ? The world oil market is a single finite market one and the same. What you giveth, someone else taketh. The EU decision means that the UK and others in the continent will find that they now suddenly have spanking new fully unexpected competitors (yes Germany and Poland and many others too) per European countries bidding for what used to be THEIR vendors, their oils, including Norway´s which, of course, has finite supply capacity and will end up not selling to all of them, maybe just the traditional European countries and that is IT. Same for Middle East producers that besides negative geopolitics are not stupid enough to increase production in this senseless and most probably not sustainable temporary vaccuum of sorts now created by the EU. That leaves the “beach-front bazaar” oil suppliers and good luck with that. Besides the UK and others in the continent true enough have been importing non-Russian oils but beware them have been perfectly matched & mated and fully adapted to their processing plants and refineries which could take years to achieve, if ever.
Sorry here but I´m clueless regarding what this phrase of yours may mean ” Most likely a French refinary or similar will be adapted of not already adapted and then be distribution point.” Same goes for other sentences that follow. Finally, if the EU has a plan nobody knows about it. If you do, please let us know. The only announced plan is unwarranted Russophobia and as you correctly say Truth Seeker ” we shall see how it works ” … Very SOON I´d add.
You do know Jorge that Truth (hmm) Seeker is our resident Grim Reaper, a troll, who’s sole objective is to obfuscate all that you/we discuss/comment upon here?
Please don’t waste your valuable time on him.
Thanks WTFUD I´ll do just that from now on.
Still, the question allowed me to explain things to the silent part of our audience that peeps but does not show up including MSM and politicians (and Nobel laureates I learned today…) This is home to me, so I can go along with a stray cousin a little bit and as long as the conversation with real brothers and sisters is not distorted hahahhahhh !! Take care WTFUD
Cordially Jorge
Russian Export Blend Crude Oil, commonly referred to as Urals crude, can be matched by blending crudes from other places — but it will be more costly. So it’s not that the refineries in Hungary, Slovakia, Germany, Poland and Croatia etc won’t be able to operate, that’s simply not true, they won’t be able to operate as efficiently or as profitably.
The article is not factually correct on refinery capacity.
Please cut out the childish abuse. You sound like a particularly immature American.
The article in my view does not consider fully the refinery capacity across Europe and I don’t think refining will be a major issue.
The bigger issue is port capacity and transport costs.
I have traded commodities and no one is panicking about refinery capability.
Truth Seeker true enough, as you say port capacity + lack of logistics infrastructure + transport problems (imagine the 1963 Rostock-Schwedt pipeline to be revamped and upgraded) will necessarily bite very hard and I fully agree. As we differ regarding refinery capabilities let´s leave that aside for a moment okay ? ( back to that later ) Now then, as a commodity trader you might know about the tremendous European need for diesel fuel. So your input is welcome Truth Seeker. At least 50% of cars and almost 100% of trucks in Europe are diesel-powered. Because of that, most European refineries are currently finely tuned to distill tons and tons of diesel from Russian Urals crude in theory no longer available. Venezuelan oil is way too heavy to even try to tune a refinery for diesel fuel. In turn, Middle East oils are clearly not bidded for whatever reasons even geopolitics. So then which crude oil blends — basically from where, which reservoirs that you know of — would be most similar to Russian Urals with a Nelson Complexity Index refinability of 9.8. Repeat, always assuming that refineries will process such crude blend without problems.
In other words Truth Seeker, now NOT having Russian Urals blend because of the EU ban, exactly which crude oil — from where ? — will European refineries process in EUROPE (not Kenya or Argentina) in order to distill MASSIVE amounts of high quality diesel fuel needed by European cars and trucks market ? THAT is the question. And I am assuming that, as you say Truth Seeker, current European refineries can process oil blends from anywhere you say. I do not agree, but… okay, as a given premise I temporarily accept it that European refineries today without any matching or modifications can process crude oils from anywhere then. So, WHICH oil blend from WHERE ? NOT Venezuela, not Middle East. From where then, which oil blend ? Oman ? Nigeria ? You say — and I believe you — that you have deep knowledge of the world commodities markets, so you should know, right ?
Buenas noticias para el mercado negro; es decir para las mafias; es decir para los dueños de los partidos políticos europeos. Todo encaja, no son tan tontos como parece. El negocio es el negocio.
The Empire of Lies de-petroleumisation is not a flaw, it’s a feature.
WEF Plan #1
In Hungary all supplier (except OMW) buys Hungarian refined oil products (which made from Urals). Hungarian citizen can buy gas at a highly discounted prize, while MOL (Hungarian oil company) makes a gigantic profit selling the refined Urals to westerners, because we refine much more than we use. This sanction pack is a huge win for Hungary, we still have have good oil, MOL makes more money, if oinkers destroy friendship pipeline we can import Urals by sea, we took no obligation about ever stop using Urals.
@Jorge
Tass picked up a Corriere dela Serra report :
UK’s Johnson floats idea of alliance as alternative to EU, newspaper reports
https://tass.com/world/1456651
Il piano segreto di Boris Johnson per dividere l’Ucraina da Russia e Ue: il Commonwealth europeo
https://www.corriere.it/economia/finanza/22_maggio_26/piano-segreto-boris-johnson-dividere-l-ucraina-russia-ue-commonwealth-europeo-02d3b232-dc6b-11ec-b480-f783b433fe60.shtml
After Brexit, this leak shows UK policy is to indeed upturn the EU, form a European Commonwealth, a remake of the old Intermarium from pre-industrial days.
Forcing archaic geopolitics on a highly industrialized Europe, is the problem.
It sure looks like the EU Commission is either unaware of BoJo’s prank, or are actually full witting partners.
Alex mercouris focused on Boris Johnson in a recent Duran videocast.
Mercouris finds Johnson downright sinister in his activities that prolong the Ukraine conflict while he lofts the idea of an alternative EU, after he was “hired” so to speak to get the UK out of Europe.
It is such a joy to watch how easily Russia got the EU over a barrel — pun fully intended — with the happy bonus that both the oil price and the ruble are rising to stratospheric levels.
Putin is potentially freed from his old contracts signed at lower prices with those European Idiots.
He can now sell at higher prices, which, wait…. enlarges his war chest !!! Sacre Bleu !!!
And didn’t snake oil salesman Ursala swear just days ago that to prevent Putin from doing just that the EU will not stop buying Russian oil?
Brent crude oil price is not necessary the avarage price Europeans got their oil. Companies have made long term contracts of oil price and daily ups and downs don’t inflict rapidly to those prices. In fact there is no real “global oil price”. There are tens of different prices. In same way big buyers will always get cheaper average price what ever material than those buying small numbers with daily market prices.
Natural gas has ever more diversed market price system. They are local, not global. Any natural gas producer will gladly sell gas 30% cheaper if it’s question about 40 bln cubic meter than 0,5 bln with higher price. (1 MMBTU = 26,8 cubic meter of natural gas)
In global market just tiny shortage% of what ever critical is skyrocketing prices. Overproducing sink prices as we wittnessed with crude oil during period of 1980-1986. But in many ways this magic “global market” is overhyped and media folks are undermining long term huge volume contracts made by real big playes, nations and corporates. What we do know is that OPEC has targetted the price of oil – $120. We also know that both US and OPEC are unable to increase production fast and enough. Global oil production per capita is now lower than it was in 2018 and this level of 2018 will be very very hard to beat.
Which has me (and no doubt every other UK and European) wondering why it is the process described has not occurred in the cases of gas prices since last autumn?
Because if it did work as described gas prices across ‘local’ Europe would have stayed the same rather than become more expensive than rocking horse droppings.
There’s theory, and then there’s practice.
Frankie
A comment and question for you. Please input your take on this.
At least 50% of cars and almost 100% of trucks in Europe are diesel-powered.
Because of that, European refineries are currently finely tuned to distill tons and tons of diesel from Russian Urals crude, no ?
Of course, switching these European refineries over to different and varying types of other crude blends will take an enormous effort and time that we have described herein. But them better produce tons and tons of diesel fuel right ?
What can you add regarding the European refineries diesel problem ?
Venezuelan oil is way too heavy to even try to tune a refinery for diesel fuel right ? So Venezuela would not be an EU candidate vendor, right ? Middle East oils clearly not bidded for whatever reasons even geopolitics. So then which crude oil blends — basically from where, which reservoirs that you know of — would be most similar to Russian Urals ? Apparently not many, maybe none in enough continuous quantities.
Russian Urals have a Nelson Complexity Index refinability of 9.8
Thanks Frankie
How is it possible that EU energy experts are quiet about this?
They have universities, institutes….
You can bet they aren’t but our medias silence them.
A very well written & informative article. I feel like I just had a crash course on oil & gas, at least where it concerns the EU, refineries & global products. Thank you for posting. It does make me wonder, did Ursula, Borrel or the like even consult with refiners or oil businesses? My ignorance is one thing, but theirs amounts to criminality.
@Trubindl Thank you so much for your kind words.
You now know and understand what EU leaders do not.
Yes, it´s criminal to merrily decide upon such a high impact topic they know nothing about.
Regular folks will pay for this, inflation will spiral out of control in Europe and possibly elsewhere as a consequence. All they are doing is following orders. The US counterparts are salivating for the known outcome. I I cannot fathom how Germans at large allow this to happen for no reason. Cordially Jorge
There is one more thing that needs to be taken in consideration. The whole oil embargo thing was blocked by Hungary before they duped it to accept ‘seaborn only’ oil sanctions.
Let’s just imagine that both the euroctats and the ukranians want some revenge for it. And now they have a perfect opportunity not only to make complete Russian oil embargo but also make a demonstration what happens in Europe to those who refuse to obey the siucidal orders of the masters.
And it’s done very simply.
The Druzhba pipeline goes through the Ukraine so just one call from the masters to Zelensky and the flow of oil in it is stopped (he’s got lots of ways to do it including those framing the Russians for blowing up the pipe for some additional PR value). The result: Russian oil embargo to Europe is complete and Hungary is severely punished and given to the mercy of its euroctat overlords…
Orbán thought about this if the Ukrainians shut off the pipe we are allowed to import Russian oil by sea, the EU agreed to this.
Who “owns” the Druzhba pipeline?
Gazprom?
Resuming all the text. The people from Europe will suffer, thanks to the blinded vision of their leaderships. In September the temperature start getting cold, going up to April/May. General “Winter” will be present to clarify the europeans minds.
Here is the problem I have-
1. The huge discount on Urals oil, negates completely the major rise in oil prices
2. The west ensuring that ships transporting Russian oil are uninsureable
3. No access to Western technology in the oil sector
4. No access to foreign investment in the oil sector
5. Refineries in India and China produce alot of their own oil products. Forget about the crude for a minute – the Russian refined oil products ( Russia being a big exporter in this also) will have not many places to go with the european ban and pressures/limitations put on shipped oil.
Surely the plan here from the west is simply to cripple or kill the Russian oil industry completely – forcing Russia into capitulation over Ukraine or even better – capitulation into signing over Russian oilfields and companies into western companies. The same things they are trying to do with the Russian banking system
It’s obvious that big news will come, if not during this summer but before 2024. Digital Dollar or as called also Digital Fiat Dollar (backed by nothing but “intellectual capital”???) destroying old Fiat Dollar created after Nixon’s shock.
https://secure.brownstoneresearch.com/?cid=MKT602858&eid=MKT639036&assetId=AST220276&page=1
The Nixon’s shock (1971) created dollar not backed by cold. The digital dollar will make America as cashless society. Let’s see can they make it but one thing is sure: they have the propaganda machine to claim “it was made to safe American people” though it’s nothing but another heist. There are DNC ruling class, Bill Gates, Visa, Ford, United Nations etc behind this scheme.
This all sounds really just conspiracy theory. The sad thing: there are facts more than fakes behind this story.
How is this different from the World War II Morgenthau Plan which called for the deindustrialization of Germany? Yet here Germany and friends are doing it to themselves.
Jorge, another great and insightful read. You’ve truly earned a huge koala hug today!!!
Same there Godspeed0511 !! ( ahahahhhahahhh )
Cordially Jorge
Subservience to Uncle $hmuel is not without it’s costs. The U$ says “jump Froggy,” the EU says “Yes Master, How High?” Wouldn’t you just love to know how much it costs Uncle $hmuel to buy his “friends and allies?”
Add to all this the possibility of some oil spot market scheme concocted by the City of London and their Wall St. brethren, and prices will skyrocket even more.
Hats off, Jorge!
This is the most thorough presentation on the real practical issues triggered by an utterly stupid drive to ditch a reliable supplier as if they were switching from one bakery to another. God save the people of the collective west from their selected “leaders”.
One of the root causes of this artificially created energy crisis is the “green agenda” championed by WEF and their questionably talented young disciples. But what is the green agenda really designed to achieve by quoting “scientific” nonsense most of the time…?
Parts of the green agenda can be traced back to Maurice Strong who stated in 1992: ” What if a small group of world leaders were to conclude that the principal risk to the Earth comes from the actions of the rich countries? And if the world is to survive, those rich countries would have to sign an agreement reducing their impact on the environment. Will they do it? The group’s conclusion is ‘no’. The rich countries won’t do it. They won’t change. So, in order to save the planet, the group decides: Isn’t the only hope for the planet that the industrialized civilizations collapse? Isn’t it our responsibility to bring that about? ”
– whether this was his original idea or not I cannot verify, as there were others before and after him who espoused the same general concept and talked about it
– Maurice Strong was a high school dropout, made his fortunes from oil&gas and mining, became a founding member of WEF, and a Machiavellian influencer of UN and western governments.
– you can read some more scary quotes from this criminal (deceased) at https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Maurice_Strong, and you will recognize that these ideas are being implemented by the graduates of WEF’s young leadership molding factory, who are now in power in most western governments and banks
– deindustrialization of the west can be achieved via an energy crisis, which will lead to a tsunami of impacts on every aspect of life and economy as we knew it until now, and will also lead to population reduction – another stated goal by these psychopaths
Thank you again, Jorge, for a thoroughly researched article.
Best regards,
SKovacs
Dear SKovacs, true enough I tried hard to research into details because that´s precisely where the devil awaits… And the most detailed paragraph of all I guess — the real spine of this most successfull article — is all yours, literally SKovacs.
I am referring to the ” first-hand SKovacs ” paragraph which for reasons of space this time around I did not mention its specific origins, namely yourself. In my previous article though I did mention the following : ” The comments section of my latest article gained greatly from the input offered by SKovacs an excellent and friendly poster who shared his first hand 30-year knowledge in the oil & gas business with us all. Please see link referenced below. So I´ll just summarize and/or quote what this most experienced poster had to say…”
So, obviously, thanks to YOU dear Skovacs for confirming and expanding with your first-hand 30 years experience what I was trying to explain without your credentials. No better expert witness than yourself SKovacs. And I hope that this example makes it clear why I say that I feel at home right here right now this is home to me SKovacs.
Koala bear hug and cordial hand-shake from Jorge
SKovacs, comment and question for you. Please input your take on this.
At least 50% of cars and almost 100% of trucks in Europe are diesel-powered.
Because of that, European refineries are currently finely tuned to distill tons and tons of diesel from Russian Urals crude, no ?
Of course, switching these European refineries over to different and varying types of other crude blends will take an enormous effort and time that we have described herein. But them better produce tons and tons of diesel fuel right ?
What can you add regarding the European refineries diesel problem ?
Venezuelan oil is way too heavy to even try to tune a refinery for diesel fuel right ? So Venezuela would not be an EU candidate vendor, right ? Middle East oils clearly not bidded for whatever reasons even geopolitics. So then which crude oil blends — basically from where, which reservoirs that you know of — would be most similar to Russian Urals ? Apparently not many, maybe none in enough continuous quantities.
Russian Urals have a Nelson Complexity Index refinability of 9.8
Thanks Skovacs
Dear Jorge,
Thank you for being so generous for my truly trifle of a contribution to this topic.
We are looking at plausible solutions to technical and logistical problems generated by lunatics based on geopolitical and social engineering agendas. Since the political agendas change faster than one can switch winter to summer tires, it is probably futile for us to contemplate technical solutions to problems seen today. Tomorrow there will be other problems to solve. The technical and logistical problems are to be solved by companies/corporations invested in these businesses, not by by bureaucrats who created them. Since we have corporatocracies and not democracies, the demos (plebs) has little say in the matter.
I can’t speculate on what solutions these western “leaders” contemplate regarding the unnecessary artificial energy crisis, when I am sure they can’t define the real problems they have generated themselves – and continue generating. It seem like they don’t care, as long as they rinse repeat the same BS to remain consistent with the narrative assigned to them… until their role is guaranteed on the stage.
Finding pragmatic & practical solutions to existential problems is not part of the green agenda. They let “their mysterious scientists” figure that out (note that most scientists are traditional and quiet, i.e., not prostituted by corporate or pseudo-academic B$), and then after millions of hours of committee meetings and congresses (attended on the wings of emission free Griffon birds ) they will develop a new narrative that we have to listen to and marvel that the TV and radio internet didn’t blow up from the sheer stupidity of those words packed in one sentence or PPT presentation.
– I strongly believe that all this wef crowd learned lesson nr 1 from Don Pompeo – we lie, we cheat, we steal… and that is exactly what they do. After all, unhindered access to fossil fuels, coal, metals and related businesses made them rich and influential in the first place!
– In this instance they steal everything from their own people!
Diesel vs gasoline cars in Europe:
– the proportion of diesel engine cars was above 2/3 of personal vehicles in Europe until about 2015 or so. The lorries and other heavy trucks are commonly diesel (>90%), bar some exceptions.
– Since the manufactured diesel gate saga unleashed by the US upon their mindless Germanic allies (= vassals) in 2014 or 2015, there was a steady decline of new diesel cars on the European market.
– In 2017-2020, some ~28% of newly registered cars are diesel – shocking decline (https://www.acea.auto/figure/fuel-types-of-new-passenger-cars-in-eu/).
Note the emphasis on Newly Registered cars! On the road I bet more than half of the cars are still diesel, but no official forum would bring that to the fore…
The EU proposed to kill all diesel and gasoline vehicles by 2035! https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/eu-proposes-effective-ban-new-fossil-fuel-car-sales-2035-2021-07-14/
– meaning they will stop producing them by 2035!
– Is 2050 is the deadline for abandoning all combustion engine vehicles?
I wonder how this will pan out…
This does not seem to be based on broad public support – not aware on any referendum about the subject. It is a green agenda pushed by the Davos crowd…. Germany introduced diesel ban areas back in 2019. Yet they used to produce some of the cleanest diesel cars!
Let’s assume (wish I could say “ad absurdum”) that Every EU citizen will oblige to chuck his/her combustion engine car by 2035 or 2050… where would this waste be stockpiled? Will it be shipped to Africa or Asia, and then EU (if still alive) will sanction those nations for air pollution? Just like they want China and SE Asia to act as the industrial manufacturing hub of the globe, bitch about them and blame them for massive proportion of CO2 emissions? While they are sitting on a pile of debt, impotent and arrogant, contemplating a green future on an all inclusive resort devoid of animal protein? Btw, vegetables need CO2 to grow…. So if they succeed in reducing CO2 emissions and cover agricultural land with solar panels (and junk cars refused by Africans and Asians), then where will the food grow?
Well, the EU – AUKUSCAN are truly exceptional! Lunatic asylums. Run by lunatics.
Russia must be pleased to see the new iron curtain being erected on its western borders to keep these lunatics outside of Eurasia. Hopefully the curtain will be solid enough until this lunacy ends.
As for oil grades/types:
The Ural oil blend (one of many produced/exported by Russia) is similar to the quality of Brent oil and is even better than WTI oil. Urals blend is a mix of heavy sour crudes from the Urals-Volga region and light sweet crudes from West Siberia.
The heavier the oil, the more expensive oil products one can produce by processing it – as you already explained.
Urals blend is generally a medium (about 31.7 API) gravity sour (about 1.35% sulfur content) crude oil blend.
In comparison:
Western Canadian Select (from bitumen extracted from oil sands): 20.3 API, and 3.43% sulfur
Venezuela – Mesa grade 30 API and 1.01% sulfur
Interesting details on various oil types from the Americas can be found here: https://www.spglobal.com/en/
– Note that there are a few hundred different types of oils of different gravity and varying levels of sulfur content on the market
– Matching the Ural grade is technically possible by blending oils from different sources, BUT maintaining the blend specs and volumetric flow requirements to meet refinery capacity/specs is very difficult!
The Urals blend is shipped to Europe via the Druzhba pipeline and the Baku-Novorossiysk pipeline, and traded at 25% discount relative to WTI and 27% discount relative to Brent.
SO: – what the hell is wrong with buying cheap and reliable energy for the past 60+ years and for the foreseeable 50 years? Once an entire delicate system is built around it!
Thus far the EU was shopping at a large discounted supermarket and has become a major economic power (nominally) because of low cost input and high price output. Now it will go and shop at random boutiques at luxury prices, rejig infrastructure on the fly and hope to maintain the same economic output and profitability? That would be some miracle.
Just savour the thought: before February 2022 Russia the Supplier was accused of using energy as a weapon against EU. Now the Buyer is weaponising its energy needs against Russia by refusing to buy one of the most essential commodities in the bloody world! You can’t make this $h17 up!
US was the loudest accuser of Russia, yet it has increased its oil purchases from them – quietly…
You think Pompeo was kidding? Perhaps the only true and honest thing he ever said was “we lied, we cheated, we stole…”
Since the US is running the EU, it will attempt to steal the EU industrial assets pennies to the dollar, and will either kill it or use it – both are valid business calculations if you are the US. If it decides to use it, then it will try to get access to any cheap energy source it can to make it work, even if it means shipping gas on NS2, and if necessary upgrade it to NS3, whatever it takes.
Un abrazo amistoso, e buen trabajo continuo!
SKovacs
I’ll bet $10, a friendly bet, that the Nord Stream 2 pipeline is open by fall of 2023. It will be done quietly and under the table. Plans are probably already in the works.
Certainly could very well be César !
Now I bet you $20 dollars (super friendly bet) that if the NS2 pipeline is commissioned it cannot be made under the table and the whole wide world would know it and Ursula von der Leyen and the German Greens would resign. Cordially Jorge
I’ll take that bet!
That is, I bet that Jorge is right.
They might do some palavering under the table, but once the spigot is opened, Jorge and I collect $20.
Whee! Enough for a gallon of gas!
ahahahahhhhhah
BTW Taffy, please look below at the very bottom (or almost) my petition for input to sort out the “conundrum” regarding ´which oil exporting countries will now replace the missing Russian oil for these “unfriendlies” to buy ?´
Jorge, your Saker contribution is referenced by Mike Whitney today at the Unz Review.
Thanks Taffy, good eye, excellent input !!
We all here in “The Saker” made it to the Unz Review on Mike Whitney´s Henry Kissinger piece…
” Germany currently imports 34% of its oil from Russia. And Russian oil is a fully-proven, high quality Urals blend that is delivered in vast quantities via the Druzhba pipeline to German refineries that have been engineered to meet particular processing requirements. Different oil from different providers would throw a wrench in the whole refinery process. It would require significant “modification of new feedstock lines and infrastructure, an atmospheric distillation facility, a vacuum distillation system, a cat-crack unit, a visbreaking facility, an alkylation unit, a catalytic reformer, an isomerisation unit, and an ethyl tertiary butyl ether (ETBE) facility. Plus brand new storage facilities + handling equipment for Rostock feed to substitute the 24x7x365 smooth Druzhba pipeline.” (“Germany’s Refinery Problem”, The Saker)
So, all oil blends aren’t the same?
Nope, not even close. On top of that, industry experts estimate that the refinery modifications would take roughly 6 years to complete. In the meantime, Germany’s economic growth– which is closely aligned with energy consumption– will dip dramatically, businesses will be shuttered, unemployment will spike, and the EU’s most powerful and productive country will be brought to its knees.
https://www.unz.com/mwhitney/kissinger-nails-it-for-once/
Excellent. You are a Master Jorge. Your article-analysis-premonition intertwines geopolitics with the “Infinite Tenths.” You approach Neruda and Violeta (“… it’s like deciphering signs without being competently wise”)
Greetings from Sweden
Víctor gosh what to say, thanks for all your praise man I´m speechless. I do reckon I try hard, that´s all I do. And if we can make a difference with all you guys helping me out the way you always do the better the results. This is why I say this is home to me Víctor. Cordially Jorge
Jorge,
You state “. At least 50% of cars and almost 100% of trucks in Europe are diesel-powered. Because of that, most European refineries are currently finely tuned to distill tons and tons of diesel from Russian Urals crude in theory no longer available. Venezuelan oil is way too heavy to even try to tune a refinery for diesel fuel. In turn, Middle East oils are clearly not bidded for whatever reasons even geopolitics. So then which crude oil blends — basically from where, which reservoirs that you know of — would be most similar to Russian Urals with a Nelson Complexity Index refinability of 9.8. Repeat, always assuming that refineries will process such crude blend without problems.”
– This is a poor example. If I buy a diesel car from Germany I can fuel and drive it in Kenya, Argentina, Dubai or America with the diesel at the petrol stations in those countries wherever they get it from. So that is a non issue.
Where the diesel blend is an issue is in industrial uses.
Truth Seeker, non issue ??? Poor example ????? Either you or myself is missing something important here.
I am referring to Europe, diesel fuel availability in 2023.
EUROPE assume you and I live in EUROPE
You reply well just fuel it in Kenya, Argentina, Dubai ???
EUROPE, will there be enough same quality diesel fuel by 2023 ?
That´s the question, the issue here.
Not Kenya or Argentina. EUROPE after banning Russian Urals blend.
I am willing to discuss diesel blend in industrial uses. But first — always in Europe vis-á-vis the banning of Russian crude oil — will cars and trucks run just fine Truth Seeker. Why so ?
In other words Truth Seeker, now NOT having Russian Urals blend because of the EU ban, exactly which crude oil — from where ? — will European refineries process in EUROPE (not Kenya or Argentina) in order to distill MASSIVE amounts of high quality diesel fuel needed by European cars and trucks market ? THAT is the question. And I am assuming that, as you say Truth Seeker, current European refineries can process oil blends from anywhere you say. I do not agree, but… okay, as a given premise I temporarily accept it that European refineries today without any matching or modifications can process crude oils from anywhere then. So, WHICH oil blend from WHERE ? NOT Venezuela, not Middle East. From where then, which oil blend ? Oman ? Nigeria ? You say — and I believe you — that you have deep knowledge of the world commodities markets, so you should know, right ?
Good – benefits self & others
Bandit – benefits self while harming others
helpless – benefits others while harming themselves
Stupid – harms self at the expense of others
From the European citizen’s perspective, the EU leadership is Stupid.
From the Russian perspective, they are helpless.
Either way, the day is coming soon when Europe will experience a second French Revolution in each capital plus a possible sealing of the EU Congress building and burning the place down with everyone inside.
And it will serve them right.
Stupid people have no business in any position of power.
The head of the International Energy Agency (IEA) Fatih Birol, warned today that ” unprecedented fuel rationing may be coming to Europe with bottlenecks with diesel and petrol ” (gasoline)
So banning Russian oil would help, or not ? Or is it part of the cause ?
https://www.rt.com/business/556430-fuel-rationing-coming-europe/
I don’t believe for a minute that the Western politicians are stupid, ignorant or fools. They have planned this for quite some time to achieve a predetermined result and the prize is Russia. Ever since the closing down of the USSR, don’t believe it collapsed but the effort to finish the Cold War was sabotaged by the US, most notably since the Ukrainians shot down MH17 and Russia got blamed the West has been pruning its’ citizens towards a major World war. An outbreak of unknown diseases and the global lockdown were used to condition the citizens and what will come is further restraints, famine, unemployment, homelessness and any other catastrophe that the Western ‘leaders’ can conjure up to make their population more pliable and controllable. A starving subdued population will do anything to sustain some standard of living, even go to war and fight against the accused who through propaganda are the cause of their dilemna; the accused is Russia.
All this is actually very familiar to how WW2 commenced.
The Great Depression was used to trigger off Hitler and the prize then was Russia.
Your other angle is a good one! Russia’s wealth has been historically a coveted price. The quadrillion size financial bubble is another source of tension, as it is hard to make it disappear without a big bang. The false flags and social engineering/psychological controls were/are used on purpose – no doubt.
Trying to put a finer point to your intro; those western politicians are simply actors, and as such are mostly narcissistic exhibitionists, stupid, ignorant and fools. But their handlers are a clever calculating bunch! However smart those handlers are (the likes of Kissinger), they make some fundamental mistakes in their assumptions, and we keep witnessing the results of that. Ironically the fundamental mistakes are not new, but a repeat of old mistakes…
“They have planned this for quite some time to achieve a predetermined result and the prize is Russia. ”
Premise: A cabal of Britons, starting in the 1890s, was intent on bringing down Germany to destroy a competitor and also destroy Germany as a state that was assisting the Ottoman Empire in its economic and military development—and this cabal and intrigued relentlessly to do so. AND it was also salivating about crushing the Ottoman Empire as well, to gain control of oil resources on Ottoman lands.
If this premise is correct, then it is only logical that the same people—OK, call them imperialists—have exactly the same agenda concerning Russia (also China) qua competitor and also as the owner of resources needed by them, the imps, the MIC, and their bankers.
Please help me to sort out this conundrum.
Approximately 50% of the world´s total oil imports are from Japan + South Korea + Australia + New Zealand + Canada + US + Europe. Supposedly, none of these will now be buying any oil from Russia, so they will have to buy non-Russian oil from someone else. In the case of Europe it´s 36% of their oil imports that they now have to substitute. Obviously a HUGE amount and not just of any oil. For example, Venezuela´s oil would not be fit for purpose.
Which oil exporting countries will now replace the missing Russian oil for these “unfriendlies” to buy ?
For example, will they have the right quality and enough quantity to substitute Russia´s previous oil export volumes to Europe ? Would it be Saudi Arabia ? Iraq ? UAE ? Kuwait ? Nigeria ? Kazakhstan ? Norway ? Angola ? Brazil ? Oman ? Mexico ?
In order to substitute for Russian oil, these oil exporting countries will have to either (a) suddenly increase their production (?) and how would they do that exactly (??) … or (b) disregard their traditional clients … and now suddenly cut them off high and dry and go out to sell to Europe. In that case where would their traditional clients find an exporter to buy the right quality oil from ?
OPEC decided today to bring forward their increased production plans…not sure how much difference it will be.
The group of oil-producing nations known as OPEC Plus agreed on Thursday to a larger increase in supply than planned for July and August. The White House hailed the higher output as a diplomatic breakthrough after months of lobbying Middle East oil giants to raise production to ease price pressures.2 hours ago
From telegram sputnikz
🇸🇰🇪🇺Europe may be left without oil products due to anti-Russian sanctions.
The Slovak oil refinery Slovnaft issued a warning about this.
The plant processes Russian oil and exports most of its products, the newspaper České Noviny writes.
However, the new package of anti-Russian sanctions threatens the supply of products to the Central European market.
JJ good eye there ! Slovnaft is a make-it-or-break-it refinery for Slovakia the same way that Schwedt is for Germany. No Slovnaft no Slovakia as we know it.
Please post us links (any link) if all possible, including Spuntnik.
Thanks JJ from Jorge
SLOVNAFT – ” The striking feature of the Slovnaft refinery is its high complexity i.e. its high conversion factor and processing flexibility, ranking it among the top 3 in Europe. Installed conversion technology and intensive deep hydro-desulfurization enable production and sales only of top quality sulfur-free fuels.”
* 6 million tonnes of RUSSIAN crude oil is processed annually.
* 80% of production is exported, mainly to EU member country marketplaces.
https://slovnaft.sk/en/about-us/our-company/profile/
Thanks to Taffy´s excellent input (!!!) we all here in “The Saker” can be found referenced at “The Unz Review” on Mike Whitney´s Henry Kissinger piece – https://www.unz.com/mwhitney/kissinger-nails-it-for-once/
” Germany currently imports 34% of its oil from Russia. And Russian oil is a fully-proven, high quality Urals blend that is delivered in vast quantities via the Druzhba pipeline to German refineries that have been engineered to meet particular processing requirements. Different oil from different providers would throw a wrench in the whole refinery process. It would require significant “modification of new feedstock lines and infrastructure, an atmospheric distillation facility, a vacuum distillation system, a cat-crack unit, a visbreaking facility, an alkylation unit, a catalytic reformer, an isomerisation unit, and an ethyl tertiary butyl ether (ETBE) facility. Plus brand new storage facilities + handling equipment for Rostock feed to substitute the 24x7x365 smooth Druzhba pipeline.” (“Germany’s Refinery Problem”, The Saker) – /germans-schwedt-hard-for-russian-oil/
So, all oil blends aren’t the same?
Nope, not even close. On top of that, industry experts estimate that the refinery modifications would take roughly 6 years to complete. In the meantime, Germany’s economic growth– which is closely aligned with energy consumption– will dip dramatically, businesses will be shuttered, unemployment will spike, and the EU’s most powerful and productive country will be brought to its knees.
https://www.unz.com/mwhitney/kissinger-nails-it-for-once/
SMarsh said a while ago,please scroll up.
“It seems in India many refineries use medium sour Oman spot crude which is some what similar to Urals crude. So, refineries can use Urals with minor tuneup”.
https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/032422-middle-east-crude-grades-feel-the-pressure-as-russian-urals-head-to-asia
SMarsh, thanks for comment, but now then focusing a bit here — and even if the tuneup of the Oman oil ends up being really “minor” as you say at EVERY SINGLE refinery in Europe (I seriosuly doubt it) — 2 (two) HUGE problems remain.
First, ALL of them doing such modifications and tuneups at the SAME time with terrifically strict deadline. Second, a loaded question that everyone knows the answer to. Is there ENOUGH Oman oil (or equivalent) to subsitute for Russian Urals ? With the added complication of seaborne batch deliveries also ? No, of course not, not even close. Russia is the T-Rex of European troglodyte crude oil consumers. I´d say that the problem that Europe has just set itself up to is being short of QUANTITY of the right QUALITY in a context of constant change