by Ollie Richardson for The Saker Blog
Over the past five years my work in the information space has been consciously aimed at explaining why the Russian military does and doesn’t do certain things, whether it be in relation to Ukraine, Yemen, Iraq, Syria, Venezuela, etc, and why demanding that Putin bombs everything in sight is exactly what the CIA wants so-called “pro-Russians” to say. Yet I haven’t exhausted (maybe I never will exhaust it?) this topic because it is so vast and, ultimately, complex. And it is because of this seemingly insurmountable complexity that questions like “Why doesn’t Russia liberate all of Ukraine”, “Why doesn’t Russia save Donetsk and Lugansk in the same way it saved Crimea?”, “Why doesn’t Russia boot America out of Syria?”, etc are asked on social media.
But one statement that I haven’t really addressed (until now) is “Why doesn’t Russia liberate all of Idlib in one fell swoop?”. Many “geniuses” like to say that Putin is in bed with the “Ottoman butcher” Erdogan and has thus “betrayed Syria”, similar to how shaking hands with Netanyahu means that Putin is a Zionist and has “betrayed Syria”, or even that a visit of the Saudi King to Moscow means that Putin has the blood of Yemen on his hands.
So, those “pro-Russian” readers who fear that they may be one step ahead of the Kremlin and can see an iceberg on the horizon needn’t worry – another Putin-esque zugswang is in progress!
When Russia sent its aviation to Hmeymim airbase in Syria in 2015 the primary mission was simple: remove Turkey – the main belligerent – from the game. Ankara benefited from ISIS’ theft of Syrian oil and controlled many jihadist groups on the ground (Ahrar al-Sham being the main one). Then in November 2015 the CIA (via the PM at the time Ahmet Davutoğlu) decided to float a test balloon and see how Russia would react to a carefully designed scenario. A Turkish F-16 shot down a Russian Su-24. It didn’t matter if the Turkish jet was in Syrian airspace or not, as Moscow knew exactly what had happened, and all the other players knew that Moscow knew. The actual murder of one of the ejecting Russian pilots was carried out by a proxy (a Grey Wolf), and not by a Turkish soldier. But in any case, this test miserably failed, because Russia did not react in a way that would contravene international law (the immediate response happened hours after the shootdown – Russian “advisors” and Syrian troops went to Latakia with MLRS and wiped out the “terrorists who were responsible”, who just happened to be Turkmen). Since military operations generally take place within the framework of economic conflicts (securing assets), the manner in which Russia responded to Turkey in the format état-à-état was the equivalent of what the lunatic Zhirinovsky suggested to do, just without the war crimes.
The sanctions on Turkey (aimed at the CIA-Gulen bloc in reality) negated what Ankara was gaining from stealing Syrian oil, and so the Syrian theater became a zero-sum game for Erdogan. In May 2016 Davutoğlu was removed from the picture. Erdogan was forced to take part in the Astana Agreement and start the process of throwing his proxies in Syria under the bus (or onto green buses!) within the framework of what was given the reputation-saving name of “de-escalation zones”.
This was Moscow’s way of countering the game orchestrated by John Kerry, where a pocket in Eastern Syria would magically open (ISIS would go on an offensive) at a time when al-Nusra was on the ropes in Western Syria. This tactic hoped to tire out the Syrian Army and Russian “advisors” and maximise their casualties. Whilst never admitted in public by Moscow (naturally), “de-escalation zones” actually meant “we will liberate Aleppo and thus recapture all of the ‘useful’ (where most people live, in the West) part of Syria, after which the pace of the theater will have been slowed down enough to start work on eliminating the other players”.
After Aleppo was liberated (the Turkish-controlled groups magically withdrew), Russia continued, via the “de-escalation zones”, to whittle down the large list of terrorist groups into two categories: terrorists no longer supported by Turkey (loyal to al-Nusra leader Jolani) and tame terrorists still supported by Turkey. The former category would be shipped to Idlib via green buses, and the latter category would be used to keep the trecherous Kurds and the CIA-Mossad “Rojava” plan at bay.
In parallel to this, the Astana group managed to smash the Gulf bloc into fragments, liquidating their pet terrorist proxies in Syria and forcing them one by one to normalise relations with Assad, since the dollar is becoming a suitcase without a handle.
The question of the S-400 is more complex and isn’t just about defending Turkish skies. It symbolises more a commitment to play by the rules of the newly emerging world order (based on self-defence and international law) and to no longer indulge in the casino known as “Responsibility to Protect” (or in simpler terms – multipolarity vs unipolarity). Similarly, Turkish Stream is another example of Moscow thrusting a lance through the rotting corpse of NATO. In general, Turkey is geographically positioned almost in the center of the battle of superpowers. For Ankara, bearing in mind that the US tried to stage a coup there in 2016 and had a hand in the assasination of Andrey Karlov, the Russian ambassador to Turkey, it is more profitable to look East than it is to look West, and this was why Turkey wasn’t in a hurry to join the EU, since it saw the geopolitical storm brewing on the horizon and wasn’t prepared to kiss the ass of the IMF anymore.
So, returning back to the Syrian timeline, whilst al-Nusra was being herded into Idlib, and since Trump cut aid to US-backed terrorists, Turkey was able to monopolise the “Free Syrian Army” aesthetics (abandoned by the US) and occupy areas of Northern Syria whilst making it look like they are “Syrian rebels” and not Turkish proxies, all for the purpose of preventing the Kurds from travelling any more Westward than they already have. And here is where the array of interests becomes interesting:
- Russia and Iran have basic diplomatic relations with the YPG/SDF (they are Syrian citizens after all) and want them to abandon the US/Tel Aviv/Riyadh;
- The Syrian State wants the YPG/SDF to return to the bosom of the state and hand over the territories they occupy back to the Syrian Army;
- Turkey wants the YPG/SDF removed from the picture/disbanded entirely, but has developed ties with Russia and Iran;
- The YPG/SDF will not negotiate with Turkey unless it can hide behind America’s skirt;
- Formally, Syria views Turkey as an aggressor, although behind the curtain Damascus has a pragmatic consensus with Moscow, which gave Turkey the green light to enter Syria in order to quell Rojava, and which is trying to stabilise the region and include all regional players in the Eurasian bloc;
Yes, it’s complicated. But here is a simple fact that helps the layperson to understand the situation: America has nuclear weapons. This is why Russia cannot stop the US from occupying Northeast Syria (which was plan B, plan A being a replica of Gaddafi’s removal, which failed after Russia cemented the Minsk Agreements in Ukraine). It can squash its proxies that are West of the Euphrates, yes, but it cannot touch US (non-proxy) assets, in the same way that Washington cannot touch Russian (non-proxy) assets. Or rather – they can directly touch each other’s assets, but any “victory” will be completely pyrrhic. From Russia’s perspective, the aim is to make friends with everyone, since the fewer enemies one has, the better.
While the core of the Turkish proxies is busy caging in (so-called “outposts”) al-Nusra militants in Idlib governorate, repelling the Kurds, and occasionally killing US soldiers, a kind of negotiation game between Turkey and Russia is ongoing:
- Turkey needs a terroristified Idlib as leverage against all players but is happy to hand the governorate over to Assad piece by piece in exchange for pieces of the S-400/Turk Stream/general Eurasian bloc project;
- Russia occasionally bombs Idlib in order to exercise its superior leverage over Turkey (the media presents this as “there were talks, but Russia continues to bomb Idlib”), the interim “ceasefire deals” are simply checkpoints in these grand negotiations;
- Turkey turns a blind eye to al-Nusra’s oil operations (which feed their occupation of the governorate);
- As an act of “hybrid war”, Russia and friends assist in the process of assassinating the commanders of al-Nusra in Idlib, since the less leverage Turkey has, the quicker the Idlib circus can end;
- The West broadcasts propaganda about hospitals being bombed simply to cover up the fact that they have been arming and funding Al Qaeda for decades.
The “x-factor” in this conundrum is Trump’s “pull-out”. If US troops pull out of Northeast Syria completely, it would be in Russia’s interests if Turkey filled the void and proverbially herded the Kurds back towards Assad. For America, the sooner this war ends the quicker US troops can return home, but Trump won’t exit without getting something in return. However, there is a big problem – Zionism. Tel Aviv tries to keep America in Syria. Netanyahu didn’t spend all that time begging Uncle Sam to invade Iraq just for him to leave when the going got tough. Moreover, Iraq is already falling into the hands of Iran, and sooner or later the S-400 will be sat in Mesopotamia. Not to mention the fact that Russia is entrenching itself in Lebanon. Did I mention that Trump’s (purposeful?) decisions (and failed “deals of the century”) are strengthening the Palestinian resistance (example)? So what in all honesty does Israel hope to do?
Well, since everything that happened in the Middle East since 2001 (and arguably even earlier) is mainly in Israel’s interests, especially the Syrian war, it’s not a surprise that 8 years of full-scale local proxy warfare has reduced to… Israel taking aerial pot shots at a limited slice of Syrian territory. I have already explained why Russia doesn’t react to these airstrikes in the way that social media guerrillas would like, and all that has happened since is Netanyahu’s election victory. I would only add that bombing Syria became even riskier for Tel Aviv, since the SAA air defence units gain more experience with each new raid. Moscow managed to make a nice gesture to Israel, recovering from Syria the remains of an Israeli soldier missing since the 1982 war in Lebanon, but it wasn’t done for the purpose of stopping the airstrikes. It was simply a typical Russian diplomatic move based on the concept of “violence doesn’t beget violence”. Deflecting Israel’s airstrikes is the job of the Syrian air defences. The Israeli media presents this as “Russia has friendly relations with Israel and knows that Jerusalem considers Iran its leading existential threat, so does not block Israeli strikes at Iranian targets and those of its proxies, but on one condition: Stay out of Russia’s way and give ample warning so there won’t be a repeat of incidents like the one in which Syria shot down a Russian spy plane, possibly because of confusing signals by Israel”. However, in reality Russia wants Syria to become an independent adult, capable of defending itself without requiring Russia’s help, and it is only in this way that Syria will be able to successfully integrate itself into the Eurasian bloc. Of course, logically speaking, if Israel just left Syria alone and minded its own business, then Iranian forces wouldn’t even be in Syria. But I think that most know by now that Israel wanted (and maybe still wants) to carve Syria into 3 pieces along sectarian lines.
Another layer of the Israel problem is the fact that America is standing behind it (and thus the diplomatic support of many banana republics) and an illegal nuclear program, so it’s leverage when compared to Syria’s is superior, hence why the airstrikes happen in the first place. The incident with the downing of the Russian surveillance plane didn’t really change much, because Moscow knows that apartheid Israel is the main troublemaker in the Middle East (and even more so in Ukraine – those who truly understand Ukrainian history will understand why I say this), and the Syrian war coming to an end (whilst strengthening Israel’s neighbours in parallel) is in itself a blow to Tel Aviv.
What is very common to see now is countries seemingly sat on two chairs – the West and Eurasia. For example: Serbia, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia show signs of looking both West and East. What is going on in reality is many tugs of war between superpowers, and the stronger Russia’s military and China’s economy become, the more it tips the scales in their favour, and the more “multipolar” the world becomes. It’s not that the US’ influence in a “converted” country disappears (the creation of NGOs is not illegal, and liberalism as an ideology cannot be physically destroyed), but more that the influence becomes less as the country adjusts to the new global economic reality. Although if Trump is indeed playing 4D chess with the “deep state” and is deliberately de-globalising the planet, then this shrinking of influence may be more fluid and less volatile than it seems.
In summary: Turkey – the driving force behind the Anglo-Israeli proxies in Syria – was forced to abandon its plans in Syria after NATO’s Su-24 shootdown gambit failed; Ankara and Moscow now mutually exchange a piece of Idlib for a piece of S-400; the Syrian war is now at the “exit negotiations” stage, but Israel doesn’t want to be left alone with a stronger Syrian Army, Hezbollah, and Palestinian resistance at its border; Russia isn’t in a hurry to liberate Idlib, since an alternative plan is to let the jihadists kill each other like spiders in a jar, thus the lives of SAA soldiers are not put in danger unnecessarily.
PS I am well aware that Turkey creates local councils, military adminstrations, and civilian infrastructure in North Syria, and I am not an advocate of such behavior but I don’t pretend to be more qualified than the Kremlin when it comes to solving such problems. I doubt that the Kurds would have behaved any different had they succeeded to create “rojava” in the summer of 2016. As for America, just look at what it has done to Raqqa and Mosul. Out of these options, I would prefer a temporary Turkish occupation, knowing that in the near future the situation would improve.
Thank you very much, Ollie Richardson!
This is a clear-headed overview of the situation that explains much, and puts the Turkey element into perspective. An excellent reprise of the timelines, and the position of Russia.
@ Jason T
… ” us government / deep state will fight to the end … ” …
Us government and ” usa deep state ” are not on same level of policy unfolding.
Us government is down below , and ußa deep state is issuing orders.
Since us government is following orders , they will act as ordered.
And ” usa deep state ” has role to level down power within usa ,
to level with some plain state , like some average state , say as Italy , or Spain.
So usa government will get to its power end ,
and will not fight to end of world , unles ” world deep state ” decides so.
But it is not up to usa government. Its role is highly overestimated.
… ” Rusia and China are trying to play endgame with hope to diffusing nuclear ” …
Rusia also has its own ” rusia deep state ” ,
and China also have ” China deep state “…
And they are also following orders from ” world deep state ” .
All those countries in world deep state play roles set by world deep state.
… ” but i do not think they will be successful … ” …
Plans of ” world deep state ” are hard to undetrstand ,
but they are also following orders from those above them…
” solar system deep state ” … and all other levels up in cosmic order..
Earth is just a tiny peace of rock in endless universe.
And usa government is of size and level of single bacteria in that order.
the Judeo-Zionist does not make compromises, never. only check & mate will work.
Russia’s population = 144.5 million, USA’s population = 327.2 million. Plus Russia has a much larger landmass to defend, a western border with active NATO units, a southern border full of potential Islamist insurgents, and on it’s eastern side is China who might just like to extend their border north and east in the right circumstances.
The only way to I see it to check-mate Zionism is if the west(s “leaders”) chooses to stop supporting Zionism.
Russia has allowed China to send people to Eastern Russia to work, problem is few wish to endure the climate.
I’d imagine the climate would be very hard. But as we’re heading into the age of robotics that might be overcome. There must be loads of goodies to dig up in that vast area, looks to be at least 2/5ths of Russia.
This from Wikipedia: The Far Eastern Federal District (Russian: Дальневосто́чный федера́льный о́круг, Dalnevostochny federalny okrug) is the largest of the eight federal districts of Russia but the least populated, with a population of 8,371,257 (75.5% urban[4]) according to the 2010 Census.[2] The entire federal district lies within the easternmost part of Asia and covers the territory of the Russian Far East.
In fact it is ‘Tiu’s’ little mates, the Real Evil Empire, that intends breaking up Russia into a number of vassal stooge states run by mini-Yeltsins. China does not, and I very much doubt ever will, have such intentions. Pretending that they do is pure hasbara and psychological projection.
Good stuff, Ollie. Excellent sources provided and a nice acerbic humor to make the read a glide.
Russia has used its power and influence with great parsimony, but impeccable timing throughout the Syrian operations.
For instance, as you point out, they first went after Turkey. And they did that by destroying in the first weeks 2700 oil trucks. The US for several years had attacked under 200. This oil transport system was run by Erdogan’s son and was the money-producer for his proxies. By the end of month one, he and his son were virtually out of the oil transport business.
Another feature of the Russian Aerospace usage is when they really get into attack mode, they use massive sorties (Russia flies 3 attacks per flight, day and night). The US planes fly one attack. The reason is logistical on the US side. They have machines that can’t work as hard and as intensely as the Russian attack planes.
Moreover, the Russians seem to really lay down the right munitions for the right targets. Kaliber missiles, or Tu22M3 bombers from Russian bases or sometimes from Iranian bases, missiles from surface ships and submarines in the East Mediterranean, and helos when the Syrians or special forces need really close support.
So, what we have seen is the Russian strategic, tactical and, manifestly prudent, logistical system that has flown for 3.5 years and killed 90,000 or so terrorists, according to the MOD. The Aerospace Force will be used as long as sizable target groups or arms caches or installations require aerial attacks the Syrians cannot accomplish.
Clearly, the Russians could be more aggressive, more callous regarding civilian collateral damage, more cavalier and emulate the US/coalition air power. But this is the Russians. They do war morally, legally, and with great honor. Even when killing terrorists, they are pure professionals.
They have a plan, its geopolitical. They have techniques of diplomacy. And they are there to stay a long time. They certainly will end the al Nusra hold on Idlib and return all of Syria to Assad and the Syrian People. All will occur when it best can. Putin and Russian military really know what they are doing.
But this is the Russians. They do war morally, legally, and with great honor. Even when killing terrorists, they are pure professionals.
They have a plan, its geopolitical. They have techniques of diplomacy. And they are there to stay a long time. They certainly will end the al Nusra hold on Idlib and return all of Syria to Assad and the Syrian People. All will occur when it best can. Putin and Russian military really know what they are doing.
They shipped terrorists to Idlib, but there is no longer a place to ship them. So, the logical conclusion is to kill them all.
Except, Eastern Syria.
It makes sense now to negotiate as much as possible with the terrorists (and selectively assassinating recalcitrant leaders) with the ultimate aim of telling Kurds and Arabs east of the Euphrates “It is much better to negotiate with us than to cling to your foreign backers.”
In doing so, and in winning back all of Syria this way, they also advance the program to secure a peaceful, independent (adult) set of neighbors along the entire southern border.
JS, no need to kill them. They get regularly shipped (by the Turks) to EU and other places that created them to start with, so they can get the taste of what they do to others.
Otherwise they should be shipped back to their places of origin, as they made enough money anyway.
There is one flaw in all the argumentation that I have seen in the discussions on the Saker threads I have followed for the past few years, which is really brought home to me on this thread.
Simply stated, the U.S. government/deep state is psychopathic AND they have many, many nuclear weapons.
I do not know how Russia, China or any other country or organization on the planet will be able to prevent the U.S. government/deep state from using them when all other options become ineffective.
Even psychopaths don’t want to die. If they use nukes then they and all that they own, possess or are connected to are incinerated.
MAD (Mutual Assured Destruction) works. It has worked for 70 years. Even through crises, the psychological states are not an issue. No one will be a survivor of nuclear war.
Now, there are some sociopaths in think tanks and a few officials, all with no power and no one listening to them, who insist that a First Strike and Surviving is possible. Russia keeps demonstrating to the world, there will be no hope of survival. Russia’s weapons will destroy the continental United States so that it will be geographically unrecognizable. Not just cities flattened and smoldering and covered in radiation. The landmass along both coasts will be destroyed for hundreds of miles inland. There will be enormous state-sized craters wiping out everything within the impact for hundreds of square miles. Everything alive will be dead. One Sarmat missile can destroy all of Texas or the country of France.
The “psychos” understand MAD. However, we are entering a phase of new warhead development. Combined with the end of the Intermediate Range Missile Treaty by the USA, this is leading to a dangerous period if talks are not begun to stop this process and go back to limitations, so a single accident or misjudgment does not trigger a massive response.
The greatest danger now is human misjudgment not psychopathic hegemony.
Larch and Jason, thank you both for very relevant discussion points.
Having myself looked into the history of the parasite of nations, I am not so sure that they can be expected to self-repress within the framework of MAD.
The extremist sect of hatred of humanity has no ‘off’ switch; they are conditioned from birth to be acculturated so.
Their history falls along a very robust trend of undermining … everything, regardless of negative sum gain outcomes.
But we’ve reach a historical physical and logistical limitation of unlimited gaming the system, and those with no ‘off’ switch, become, in truth, for the first time, completely antithetical to the survival of civilization, humanity, and quite possibly, the biosphere, as we know it (anyhow).
The truth can set, at least some, free.
The first slaves of the slave-masters are the (((little))) slave-masters, and they are critical to the success of the over-all slave-master program!
Many of these people may be tempted to give up the collective’s promised advantage in upward social mobility, if they know the extent of what is behind the label they self-identify as.
We must use our cognitive resources to rescue these people, and find away for them to come back to humanity.
And for every one, the parasite is reduced.
What is needed is for the sociopaths (Bolton et al) and the merely delusional (Feith) to believe that the command structure (NY and DC) would be eliminated but flyover country would not.
I think the rabid set would suffer more from the torches and pitchfork crowd than they think possible now.
LM445
…”Even psychopaths don’t want to die”
With the utmost respect, what about evangelical psychopaths that get off on delusions of an inevitable rapture…we have a truly terrifying situation where three out of four people that drive Washington’s foreign ‘policy’ fall into this category.
Plus we have an extraordinarily unpredictable baffoon completing the quartet. With a team like this steering a wounded and already unpredictable Hegemon and all the while egging each other on, I humbly suggest we cannot make any comfortable assumptions that are based on normal human logic or instinctive self-preservation.
Yes, Col, you hit the nail right into the lid there. Mind you, I do suspect the determination and steadfastness of a lot of these lunatic God-botherers, like Pompeo and Pence. After all, if they read the Sermon on the Mount and the teachings of the Nazarene, as they have been handed down to us, let alone any other moral philosophy worthy of the name, then take a good long look into the mirror, and honestly interrogate their consciences, could either of those thugs or any of their ilk really call themselves ‘Christians’. I mean, surely they fall at the first two hurdles of ‘Do unto others as you would have done to yourself’, and ‘Let he who is without sin cast the first stone’.
True that the crazies don’t want to die, but if they can talk themselves into only ‘getting their hair mussed’, then there is a real problem. They didn’t think WWI would last longer than a few weeks/months. Hitler didn’t think Russia would last a few weeks/months. And I’d say that the same type of delusive thinking that they could get away with murder so many time still colors their thinking. It’s in the DNA.
The country and especially the Christian Fundamentalist military and Vice President Pence himself long for Armageddon, and then there are the myriad General Turgesons talking to each other as noted in Dr. Strangelove, where the idea of a massive nuclear strike against Russia is forcefully advocated.
“Mr. President, I’m not saying we wouldn’t get our hair mussed, but I do say that no more than 10-20 million [Americans] killed, Tops!”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vuP6KbIsNK4
Jason, Larch,
Interesting discussion indeed.
I believe two scenarios are possible:
1. As Larch pointed out, an accident is always possible. The probability of this possibility increases the more these two parties stop communicating (due to Americans of course) and the more these two parties increase nuclear weapons developments.
2. The second scenario which I believe is also possible, is that Israel instigates a false flag (or even making it look like an accident) whereby a nuclear exchange is triggered at a time of its choosing.
This second scenario in my opinion can come after Israel has secured the Middle-East (no Iran, Turkey or any other regional power is left, even the Gulf countries can be sacrificed if necessary). Once the Middle-East is secured, Israel is willing to sacrifice the US on the condition that Russia and China are nuked. This scenario is based on Israel calculating and guaranteeing its survival after a nuclear exchange.
Mind you, in the first scenario, Israel also has a possibility to survive. It would need to destroy any country left over in the region after WWIII takes place.
After a few months of watching a little Fox and MSNBC every day, and a dash of NPR, I am firmly of the opinion that the ruling elites in the USA are, in fact, deranged, death-seeking, psychopaths. Just why, is a little mysterious, but easy enough to discern.
There have been generations of selection for psychopathy and moral Evil. That process worsened after the Rightwing reaction set in following the Powell Memorandum in 1971, and the imposition of ‘neoliberalism’, where ‘The Market’, ie the money power of the rich, steadily consumed society and every social and human relationship, marketising and commodifying them so that everything, even life itself, became a matter of ‘user pays’, ‘loser rots or dies’. The moral collapse that this utterly inhuman and vicious ideology engenders was worsened by the debacle in US ‘Christian’ life, with theologies like Dominionism, Pentecostalism, ‘Prosperity Gospel’, and Christian Zionism etc eliminating the Nazarene’s moral message and supplanting it with xenophobic fear and hatred, raw selfishness and greed, the last seen as a sign of ‘God’s blessing’.
The economic Holocaust worsened after 1989, when the USA saw no ideological obstacles remaining to the enforced imposition of neoliberalism and US Full Spectrum Dominance onto every country on Earth. If the prototype Colour Revolution in Beijing had succeeded, today China would have been vivisected and reduced to a string of supplicant successor states, ruled by Chinese Yeltsins, with Xinjiang and Tibet (at least) ripped off and full of US bases. And there would have been no Putin, that’s for sure.
Now, of course, we can see that neoliberalism has, inevitably, hastened the USA’s economic, moral, intellectual and spiritual decomposition. In response the ruling psychopaths have become INSANELY belligerent, attacking China, Russia, Iran and anyone who dares defy the Gods Upon the Earth. All this is occurring, of course, at the same time that neoliberalism’s deadliest blessing hastens our extinction. A death-cult that simply dismisses a living environment and the habitability of the planet as ‘externalities’, to be ignored besides the holy calculus of profit and loss, was certain to one day reach this apotheosis, the very topmost peak of Evil.
@ Jason T
…. ” us government is … “….
Us government … is governed…
from orders and strict instructions from ” usa deep state ” levels above them.
Us government is bunch of clerks , paid to follow orders.
They are not decision makers. They just follow orders , it is not to be forgotten.
…. ” and they have many , many nuclear weapons … ” ….
Yes , there are nuclear weapons.
But weapons are not property of usa government.
Nukes belong to ” usa deep state “.
And ” usa deep state ” also follows orders from levels above them ,
” World deep state ” . And they decide what has to be done. And issue orders down.
So , stories from so called us government are just horror stories. Maybe psychotic.
Did you miss that nail… Base commanders and the responsible people on board of ships and submarines do NOT need the presidential football with its firing codes nor do they need the POTUS nor anything from the Pentagon to fire missiles with nuclear warheads. Check it out for yourself…
@ Jaques Cuse
… ” … nor do they need potus nor anything from pentagon … ” …
Yes , there are strange things about potus and usa army relations.
Usa army officer does not say oath to potus. So officer may ďisobey potus orders.
Than whose orders he follows ?
Those coming from ” usa deep state ” !
All those actions from ministry of war , from joint hq , from pentagon…are just theatre productions , foggy statements , scenarios written somewhere else,
so tv audience may think that usa government rules… something…but nothing.
Because usa army is PRIVATE army of ” usa deep state ” .
It is not army of usa people. Private army !
Nato is also private army of ” usa deep state “.
Did not us government plan to withdraw us troops from syria , and replace them with another private army , ” blackwater ” ( or some other name ) , hired army ?
When usa army general retires , where he gets new job ? In private army , mic !
So officer knows who gives him salary , and whom is he to obey. Private orders !
And money officer gets , so called $ , is also private money from ” usa deep state “.
$$$ are printed by FED , group of private bankers , that sells their $ to usa banks.
So how government that does not have its money can be independent ?
It can not.
It is owned by ” usa deep state “.
So orders comes from deep state , not from potus.
.
How prevail the razon over the force . With the time go on Russia will prevail over his enemies.
The U.S. government/deep state will fight to the end. Even if the Chinese collapse the U.S. economy by selling off all their U.S. Treasury bills, the nuclear infrastructure remains, and those employed in it will continue to be paid. It is impossible for Russia and China to destroy this infrastructure. As a last convulse of the dying Beast, those in the nuclear infrastructure will be ordered to launch – and they will – because the majority of those employed in the U.S. nuclear infrastructure are propagandized idiots or simply too fearful to act against the stupidity of their actions.
Russia and China are trying to play the endgame with a hope to diffusing the nuclear catastrophe, but I do not think they will be successful. Compound that with impending global climate catastrophe, there is little collective will left to deflect the coming extinction event. The only hope is two fold:
1. That there will be left a sufficient number of humans to restart our civilizations; or,
2. That a new intelligent species will evolve to fill the niche left by humans, whether that new species is biological, technological or both.
Hi Jason T,
There will be no survivors from nuclear exchanges….
30,000 nuke heads… give or take …. shared between Russia and the US utilising systems we know little about just to keep launching …… Fire storms nuke power plants melting down plus plus plus all nasty !
Subscribe to abolition caucus and read extensively the essays and scenarios posted there.
I recommend Prof Steven Starr .
we really do not want to test all this out.
We the worlds plebs wont know what is happening when it happens – the internet and all manner of communications will drop – and neither will we have time to boil the kettle …. Today things move way too fast…
sobering thoughts
Oh, I just loved it!
So full of useful information and very appetizingly laid out.
Very enjoyable.
Nugget after nugget of golden truths, like an oasis.
I hope your mid-term forecast for Idlib are accurate.
I constrain my hopes, having studied the long and incredibly consistent history of the collective behaviour of the parasite of nations, thus knowing its irrational behavioural patterns, which are ultimately suicide by genocide; mitigating this will be a milestone challenge for humanity, but it looks like there’s still a chance.
HI Ollie – its wonderful that we have this analysis now…thank you so much. Its way easier now to understand you and your views –
“I would only add that bombing Syria became even riskier for Tel Aviv, since the SAA air defence units gain more experience with each new raid.”
Lot’s of excellent points in this piece but the above was my favorite. The operators sit there and drool for the day they get the go ahead.
As for bombing Syria to win the support of the electorate, Wake the hell up people! You might win a war, with a lot of help, but you also created a whole new generation of enemies, when you could have made friends.
” Although if Trump is indeed playing 4D chess with the “deep state” and is deliberately de-globalising the planet…”
I doubt Trump knows how to play chess or at best he should be in Class F. When we say Deep State we mean AlphaZero. And in general the brain commands the legs not the other way around.
Anyway,he was the best choice for USA and the world , 2 years ago and there is no hope for a better one,at least for now.
Deep State motto: Islam is bad in Orient but is good in Occident!
One of the other reasons the global Deep State is destroying the countries having economical or political relations with Russia,China or Iran is to provide refugees to Europe,to destroy the national social cohesion,rise the Anti-Semitism and alienate the Christians . And more and more costs for the Foes. Less resources for national defense or economy. Anacondas everywhere.
Unfortunately , the war in Syria and Middle East is going to be an Odyssey, finalized or merging in the third and last world war.
PS. Very good analyze,Ollie!
Of course Trump plays 4-D chess. Dumb, Dumber, Dumberer and Dumberest.
Thanks Ollie Richardson, your summation of events really helps me to understand the current geopolitics of the Syrian war, whilst also leaving me quietly confident that the Russian players in this realtime drama with an existential dimension for humanity are acting as rational, intelligent and courageous adults.
Let us hope that others will wish to follow their example.
President Putin has contributed to preventing the tragic Syrian civil war escalating into something much worse: an international confrontation, the war everyone in their right minds wants to avoid. But can even the most skilful prevent that conflagration forever?
https://www.ghostsofhistory.wordpress.com/
“So what in all honesty does Israel hope to do?”
Very witty! I spilled my coffee, then laughed and laughed.
Interesting indeed and we have bigger picture to see now. Isisrael is actually standing alone in the region. Yeah we could say that Saudi-Wahabi-Scum & Jordan are their cousins but they don’t have strong army. Not strong enough to defend themselves from Iran, let alone Hezbollah and Houthi. Sure, US & NATO will help isisrael through military support but for how long? How long before they got checkmate by Russia & China before make any move?
Historically, it is a must for anyone who wants to rule the world must ruled Jerusalem. But one cannot fully controlled Jerusalem if they don’t rule Syria and Turkey on the North, and Egypt and Libya on the south. These are important passage of chain and supply for Jerusalem. Isisrael does not control these areas yet, and they with their allies are struggling to oust Assad, been 8 years now. They can’t even handle the crowd in already super- crowded Gaza. So, there must be something very very evil going to happen in the future, for isisrael to finally control the greater land of Sham (Syria, jordan, Palestine, saudi, lebanon, Iraq & egypt). Either it’s going to be nuclear war or something else. But my guess it’s going to be the first. Thanks.
The horehouse of saud are fabian jews and have destroyed more muslim holy sites than isis and are doing their best to help israhell and americans wreak havoc in the region. Abdul Israhell the monkey sitting on the throne in Jordan is a jew on the mothers side, not even daring to go to the toilet before asking Washington for permission. He is also creditted with the idea to create isis to counter Hezbollah. Egypt is ruled by a jew, the son of a jewish spy on the mothers side, doing his best to destroy Egypt always willing to give a helping hand to the israhelli with regards to Gaza. Libya is destroyed. Iraq is destroyed. Syria is destroyed. Then there is Sudan, Somalia and Algeria. Glory Glory….!
There is the question of destroying the syrian chemical weapons, which was the only deterrence, Syria had against Israhell. Then there is the S-300 delivery charade. Then there is the staying- leaving, staying-leaving play. Then there is the russians sitting there and counting the missiles raining on Syria again and again. Then there is allowing the americans to occupy Syrian territory. Then there is Russia acting as syrian foreign ministery…. Then there is the russians voting for sanctions of Yemen. I am sure all of it can be justified and explained away, though some of the justifications have been outright cowardly. But the fact of the matter is, that Russia has made a lot of mistakes in Syria. On the other hand it seems like they are learning form it. If only lavrov stopped saying “our partners”. The fact of the matter is, that russia can not go it alone and it seems they are looking for the wrong partners! If you want to know, how back it looks for the russians, just imagine if Iran had the military power of the russians! My guess is that the americans would crawl back to their “shithole” of a country!
@ Minute by Minute
…. ” there is s300 delivery charade “…
… ” staying_leaving , staying_leaving play ” …
… ” rusia sitting there and counting missiles raining on syria … ” …
Yes , quite a list of actions rusia should improve , by opinion of some ,
and did not , but why did not ?…
In other words rusia should conduct war with its armies to completely liberate syria …
But why should rusia do it ? Is syria former part of rusia , former rusian republic ,,are syrians rusian brothers ?
If rusia was attacked , would syrians help them and sent soldiers to help rusia?
But anyway rusia did help , not enough some would say , but many rusians were killed in syria , helping asad stay in power.
Is asad so good politician , worthy a help , is syria worth that rusians get killed helping them ? How many mistakes asad made in his rulling syria ? Those asad mistakes made usa determine he is target worth to be replaced. Attack wronged.
List of ” rusia delays ” , tells us rußia is buying time.
Rusia knows , is not capable of great war , yet. So rusia is preparing new weapons.
Small military actioñs , yes. Like in syria. Just to show it is gaining power.
But not large war . until new weapons come in service use .
Only 20 years ago rusia military power , during gorbachow and yeltsin , did not exist. Rusia was in knock down , boxer unconcious on ground , fighter unable to move. Rusian soldiers hungry , without slice of bread for lunch, no salary.
Rusia desperately selling rocket missiles , at large , throughout world , just to earn some money, for food for soldiers , for country desintegrated. Robbed from outside.
Who did help rusia in those years ? Nobody ! Syria not , certainly!
And now , somebody expect rusian soldiers to die to liberate syria and asad.
Rusia is small country , population close to nigeria , bangladesh , mexico , japan…
And nobody tells nigeria to fight for asad , and liberate syria , at last.
So asad could repeat his mistakes , again ? Syrians should learn a lesson.
Rusia lost 15 milion people in ww1 , and 30_40 milions in ww 2 … Great loses.
Rusia does not have surplus of man to die fighting and liberating arab countries.
So , yes , rusia is sitting there , counting missiles raining on syria.
Let syrians fight out for their liberation. Like rusia fought hitler to liberate people.
… ” rusia acting as syrian foreign ministry ” …
rusia should be also acting as ministry of war , as it is liberatig syria , reducing previous syrian mistakes , slowly returning syria to peace , and diplomacy talk.
then why should not rusia not act as foreign ministry , since syria is not able.
…. ” our partners ” … Lavrov and Putin use to say …
as rusians often repeat , as much as it strange sound. Naming usa partner ?
Partner that wants to conquer you. To kill you , but not alowed to. Orders above.
That indicates that ” rusia deep state ” , and ” usa deep state ”
have common master , ” world deep state “.
And than , rusia and usa are partners. World partners. World masters above them.
All I will say is: “thank you for proving my point”. You are not doing Russia any favors by defending her the way, you do, quiet shamefull I may add.
Just a few examples for you.This is how we do thing. And we are not even close to the power of the mighty Russia! With freinds like Russia………!
/nasrallah-in-iran-war-all-us-forces-interests-to-be-eradicated-israel-saudi-to-pay-price-english-subs/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OWLVF1lwfpg
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XYmkQESgpM8
@ Minute by Minute
… ” you are not doing rusia any favours ” …
Well , in few lines i wrote above , my intentions were not to do rusia favours.
Not at all. On the contrary , i could compile quite a list on rusia wrong doing to my tribe, many ill advices … S300 felivery charade…staying_leaving , staying_leaving…
rusia acting as foreign military adisers,… and also other examples , not listed ,
and many of my tribe members were killed by those actions , or not actions.
But such is behaviour of empire country. They do not highly consider small countries, empire does not meet interests of small countries , but its own.
Such are empires throughout world. Rather selfish , one might say.
… ” by defending her ” …
I am not defending her , rather pointing out weak points , and most critical point is number of population. Rusia is decreasing in people numbers, weakening.
Remember , osama cia laden father had something about 53 sons , not coumting daughters. And rusia family is one or two kids.
Second critical point is extremly low number of rusians in high government positions. In rusia there are aboit 80% of rusians , but only 4% in ruling positions.
Ruling positions are held by khazars ( pretending to be jews ) , and real jews.
It is to be awaiting long time for rusians to come in proper number in government.
And those khazars in form of liberals , 5th column , 6th column , atlantists , jews oligarchs , khazar oligarchs , are stopping advance of rusia.
… ” not even close to power of rusia ” …
Yes , rusia has some military power , but not enough , yet.
And has many problems aroused by western sanctions. Economy suffers. Stagnates.
Milions and milions of people in poverty , suffering , awaiting arms race to slowdown
Liberals awaiting for usa and uk to return with its advicers and to conquer and steal resources and turn rusians into slaves. Return of another gorbachow or yelcin.
So i am worried about rusian population , not to unnecessarily die in ME , but to increase population to achieve at least 250 to 300 milions of rusians.
I strongly separate rusia-government and rusia-people.
Those two are not at same road , yet.
Rusian people and their christian souls are most important value.
That would be mighty rusia , colective soul , not number of nuclear missiles.
Empire government actions may be as … ” it could look like blackmail too ” …
Yes , they could use those steps , such are steps of empire. They ask obediance.
Good luck to you and to Russia.
Russia has done what is necessary to save Syria and the process continues.
Keyword: necessary
You call it necessary, It could look like blackmail too!
If Russia wants real allies, Russia has to become a real ally.
@ Minute by Minute
… ” if rusia wants real allies ” ….
Why should rusia want real allies ? Want ? Need ?
Meaning rusia needs allies to defend her from attack? To sell her some important items rusia does not have ? To lend her money ? To let rusian student learn something in ally coumtry ? To import technical knowledge , patents ?…
To my knowledge rusia is qiite selfsufficiemt country , without help from ally.
… ” rusia has to become a real ally … ” …
To whom ? What for ?
Meaning like if she become ally to some coumntry , rusian people in rusia would benefit from it ? Rusian standard of living would increase by help from ally ?
…. ” real ally …
Meaning , something like , rusia as real ally should fight and die for some country ,
while , for hypothetical example , that country is importing airplnes from usa or europe , and while that country is exporting oil to europe , and while that country is not buying airplanes from rusia ? While that country is storing gold in usa ?
Meaning rusia is defending us , while we trade with west ? Or something like that ?
So question is what that ally country would contribute to rusia. ?
Ally sides need to be balanced , as i think…
If not balanced it could compromise ally relations.
Elephant and mouse could be allyied , but how to be balanced ?
Well , those couple of lines indicates that my knowledge of allys is rudimentary , maybe there are some good explanations as what ally is ? I am interested.
бели орао збг,
First tell me what your name means, and we will countinue. Maybe your name is important for this dialogue.
Still you have had the answer to your last question. I doubt, that you understand the debth of what you are saying. In the larger scheme of things, your replies are horrofying. Maybe it is your world view. Maybe if you are a christian, you should contemplate on your story of the crucifiction. But if you were a Shia, you would know better! Still your comments would make better sence, if you were a fanatic materialist or a neocon.
@ Minute by Minute
… ” i doubt that you understand depth what you are saying … ” …
Hmm… what to say … I am low educated one , low level of primary school,
with barely hundred words of this language text is typed. Lack of education.
Also i agree i may not understand what i am typing ,
since when i start , i do not know what will be typed out.
Just some kind of inspiration, maybe. You could sense and know better.
… ” yuor replies are horryfying … ” …
Well , i could not know about it. Maybe , worrying ? Or troubled ones? Concerned.?
Or just really horryfying , when you think about whole of UN , and their sillent acceptance of bully behaviour of uk and us.
Starting wars whenever they want it , wherever they wanted, bombing whoever they want. And rest of world is zomby silent. No resistance. Like spell bound. Horror ?
… ” you should contemplate on christian story … ” …
Well , my tribe is in christian tradition now , whatever was before , if remembered.
But , concerning of ally , there is an old proverb in my tribe , advising like,translated ” ( trust ) in yourself , and in your horse ” …
Trusting in ally is troublesome concept , slowly step by step leading to dependance.
What about of nik name used , it would be : white eagle , if it have any meaning.
About shia , i know nothing , never met about their toughts.
… ” if you were fanatic … or a neocon … ” …
Like i said , when i start typing , i do not know outcome.
I certainly do not know nothing about thinking of a neocon. Who are they ?
But in rare moments i try to think about situation , i try not to think in relation ,
24 h before , ,24 h today , 24 h tomorrow , but in sence of longer periods ,
and in air above earth , farther away in time and space. Long history of mankind.
One should not think that this tiny peace of sand , called earth , is begining and ending of everything , not that earth is center of universe.
Problems in front mankind comes to be solved in manner our Godfather expects.
I actually began writing a respond, but reaching half a page, I stopped. Faced with a superior intellect, I accept defeat.
I will leave you with an iranian saying, which goes like this: “you can wake up a person, that is sleeping. But you can´t wake up a person, that is pretending to be asleep.
Good luck to you and your tribe. We all need some.
@ Minute by Minute
… ” …we all need some … ” …
,.. ” Let not a wise man boast of his wisdom , and
Let not mighty man boast of his might ,
Let not a rich man boasts of his riches ,
.
But let him who boasts boast of this
That he understands and knows Me … “…
ok – this conversation is going off-topic. Please take any further commentary to the MFC. Mod.
The pleasure is mine!
With regards
During the war with Saddam we had nothing, while everybody including the russians were helping Saddam. One day when one of our commanders was helping a wounded volunteer basiji, Saddams forces did one of their many chemical attacks. As I said, we had nothing, not even enough gasmasks. Those responssible for delivery of gasmasks devided them amongst our fighters. They also gave one to their commander. In a moment of weakness the basiji tells the commander, that the mask is his! Our commander took off his mask and gave it to him! He did not because the basiji was an iranian or because of our population statistics or even because the basiji was a shia. He would have done it for a wounded iraqi soldier, if he had the chance. He became a legend amongst legends of the war.
They can kill us. But they can´t defeat us. We are Shia. Death to us is what water is to its inhabitants.
I don’t know who you are but I salute and admire how you passed the message. Your points put everything into perspective. The practical way in which Russians see what’s going on in Syria.
This is ‘complicated’ because it is bullshit posing as an explanation. The truth itself is simple: Turkey and the United States have invaded Syria and are using Saudi Barbaria terrorists and traitors like the ‘socialist’ Kurds to do the dirty work of their occupations. This is a NATO action in cooperation with Saudi Barbaria and Israel. Israel is kicking Syria while it is down, bombing it hundreds of times. Turkey is ‘dealing’ with the terrorists, all right — by sending convoys of weapon to them. The terrorist a-Qaeda ARE Saudi Barbaria. Both Israel and Turkey have shot down Russian aircraft, in preparation for the USAF to do so. Either Russia stands up for itself and gets the job done in Syria, by kicking the invaders out, or else it accepts NATO’s de-facto dismemberment of Syria. Another Yugoslavia. Yes, the truth is that simple. Really.
“Either Russia stands up for itself and gets the job done in Syria, by kicking the invaders out”
Please do present your proposal on how to “kick out” a nuclear superpower. I think it’s safe to say that even the teaboy in the Kremlin canteen has more experience in international relations than social media tough talkers.
“Please do present your proposal on how to “kick out” a nuclear superpower.”
They certainly aren’t making their job any easier by selling Syrian arch-enemy Saudi Arabia thermobaric MLRS – or maybe the reason for doing that is that they have no intention of kicking anyone out nuclear superpower/otherwise.
Can you name any battle in Syria where the Saudi Army used TOS? Is there even a single Saudi regular troop in Syria? And in Yemen – can you name a single battle where the Saudi Army used TOS? I suppose giving Turkey the S-400 is also bad since, you know, Ankara shot down a Su-24? Does international relations work like children’s cartoons? Rhetorical question.
Ollie, VT has had a few articles about the use of nukes in Iraq and Syria.
If you actually want to know how to kick out a nuclear-powered invader, study how Ho Chi Minh did it successfully in Vietnam, as well as how the Afganis are doing it right now. You could also include how Hezbollah did it to a mid-level nuclear power, the Zionist Entity. There is no lack of successful historical examples to follow. Just look them up, it is easy to do, study their strategies and their tactics, whole books are written on the subject.
Leo, the only socialist thing about the kurds is, that according to Carroll Quigley in his “tragedy and hope”, they were baught and paid for by Stalin to do what they have done ever since, which is destablization of west asia, for whom ever pays them the most being it the russians, the british, the american or the israhelli. Some 15 years ago I used to work with an iraqi kurd, and I kept telling him, that the israhelli were arming and training the kurds. He kept asking, what my evidence was, and I kept telling him LOGIC! He kept denying it until he travelled to Iraq, and when he came back he said, that it was true!
Anybody having any illusions about the barbarity of these socalled socialist fighters with they sexy female front figures, should just take a look at ISIS! They were doing the same tings long before ISIS came to be, even cutting heads with BRIKS. I guess using a knife would have been too merciful! A couple of years ago I actually spend a few weeks travelling in the iranian kurdish areas. At one point trying to secure my bike for the night some old kurd took it personal and actually said: “we are not all headchoppers, you know”! Even today the bastards call the emergency, our 911, from hard to reach country side, where the only help to find is from the military. When the military arrives to help, they shoot and kill them! Some years ago these socalled socialist isis had captured a shia mother and son travelling from village to village. They were told to denounce shia islam and curse Imam Khomeini. When they did not comply, they cut the boy to pieces, tied the mother and spread the body parts of her son infront of her. They told her, that they will not kill her as a means of torturing her for life! Later she was found alive and told the story!
Today these mercenaries of the west are the greatest threat to peace and stability in the entire region. A new israhell in the heart of the muslim world paid and baught with western money, trained and armed by the israhelli to perpetuate constant war, death and destruction in the region. One day the armies of the muslim world my unite to put an end to their treason. They were ISIS long before ISIS!
Wow. I’m impressed. An excellent job explaining an insanely complicated situation. I have to admit that I did not know about Bibi’s role in Ukraine. I thought the Ukro-nazi op was a US/Nato/German project. Any suggestions for further reading on Bibi in Ukraine?
Thank you for your kind words! It is indeed ultra-complicated, but not impossible to decode.
Israeli influence over Ukraine is more about Hasid and Chabad taking root in cities and promoting anti-Russian narratives. Don’t expect a Lubavitch Jew in Uman (for example) to shed any tears for the children of Donbass.
To add to your comment Ollie – and hence the attempt to destroy the Russian Orthodox Church in Ukraine…..the law to ban the speaking of the Russian language…..and look at who is behind the new leader Zelensky too.
“However, in reality Russia wants Syria to become an independent adult, capable of defending itself without requiring Russia’s help.”
I think that I understand what this means, but I do not like at all this (paternalistic) formulation. My brain is probably with Putin, but my heart is clearly with Assad. Remember for example Assad’s very elegant contribution in resolving the mini-crisis In Iran around the foreign minister Zarif in February 2019. Similarly, while I very much appreciate the information and the analysis of “South Front”, I adore the (facebook-)site “Syrian Arab Army”. This is a unique site in the matter of determination, spirit of sobriety, search of truth, and national pride.
One learns from this site that the Syrian army has made themselves plenty of efforts in modernizing the air defence, applying new techniques (independently of the S-300). As a result, Israel’s military jets do not longer risk entering the Syrian airspace; they often (illegally) “use” the airspace of Lebanon. And the Syrian army has won big battles against ISIS, notably in Palmyra, Suknah, Deir ez-Zor, and Abu Kamal. Nasrallah thinks – and he should know the topic – that ISIS was a more redoubtable enemy than the army of Israel, which lacks fighting spirit.
And last, but not least: Syria has a very old culture and I think, they are proud of that.
“My brain is probably with Putin, but my heart is clearly with Assad”
The same Assad who would’ve been liquidated if it weren’t for the Russian Air Force, hence why he made an official request for Moscow’s help?
The Pope says his heart is with God, yet he insists on bulletproof glass when appearing in public…
Hi, Ollie,
Is there something Assad should be doing that he isn’t doing, in your view?
Or should have done to head off the mess the country is now in?
I am just interested in cause and effect, not blaming.
Obviously, there is no justification for regime change in Syria or anywhere else.
Katherine
Hi, the successive Assad governments were handing out too many social payments, which led to many children being born, but not enough workplaces. In fact, this is in general a problem for the entire Middle East, hence why the West can exploit it relatively easily. Of course, if the West did rape and pillage MENA then the economic problems wouldn’t be so bad. But over time the Eurasian bloc will give Middle Eastern countries constructive economic framework, and thus there will be gradual stability.
Here is an interesting update on the situ in Syria, from Peter Ford, a former British ambassador to Syria:
https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5c2f801b9772ae6d89f7eb45/t/5cf63af897a71f00013ca94b/1559640825016/Update_Peter+Ford_4+June+2019.pdf
Russia’s prime motivation was to kill as many takfiris as possible to stop them being unleashed on Russia’s southern flank which would have been an existential threat to Russia’s national security.. Everything else, including the survival of Syria, was secondary.
Turkey was not the main belligerent. That is Israel, aided by its shabbos goys, the US and Saudi Arabia. Turkey itself was destined to be a fall guy, and to be dismembered by pro-Israel Kurds, supported by US. That was until Russia came along and changed the rules of the game.
“However, there is a big problem – Zionism.”
Thanks Ollie for taking the time to identify a big problem.
Let me describe the lie and blasphemy ( Ezek 35:12; Rev 2:9) of those saying they are Yehudi-Jews but lie and blaspheme
Rev 6:4 And there went out another horse that was RED (= EDOM) : and power was given to him that sat thereon to take peace from the earth, and that they should kill one another: and there was given unto him a Great SWORD.
Note that the Red Cross equivalent in Israel is called: Magen David EDOM. Note also the sole beneficiary of the infamous Balfour declaration was lord Red-Shield.
A bit of history is necessary. Yacov and Rebekah conspired to deceive Yitzak to gain the blessings of inheritance in Gen 27.
It is thus fitting that an assertive Esau has now completely deceived the USA Evangelicals / Christian Zionists and political leaders into believing their outrageous fake claim to the inheritance of the holy land of Israel. Esau or Edom as he and his descendants are known pretends to be Israel, Yacov and Yehuda but that he is not.
The prophets of the God of the Bible abundantly denounce the Edomite impostors for their end-time usurpation of the land of Israel.
The historic fact:
Josephus
“Hyrcanus took also Dora and Marissa, cities of Idumea, and subdued all the Idumeans; and permitted them to stay in that country, if they would circumcise their genitals, and make use of the laws of the Jews; and they were so desirous of living in the country of their forefathers, that they submitted to the use of circumcision, 25 and of the rest of the Jewish ways of living; at which time therefore this befell them, that they were hereafter no other than Jews.”
Antiquities of the Jews[Judeans] by Flavius Josephus
Book 13, Chapter 9, Paragraph 1
http://www.gutenberg.org/files/2848/2848-h/2848-h.htm#link132HCH0009
https://archive.is/KUsWN
Therefore the inhabitants of Idumea circumcised and followed Judaism’s laws. Thus, their descendants the Edomite-Jews are indistinguishable from the Yahudi-Jews except for their fruit as per the parable of the Tares and Wheat (Matthew 13:25-30). Also read Rev 2:9 & 3:9 in connection with this subject
If there is still any doubt about the EDOMITE impostors’ usurpation of the Land of Israel, then read it from the prophet Ezekiel
Eze 25:12 Thus saith the Lord GOD; Because that Edom hath dealt against the house of Judah by taking vengeance, and hath greatly offended, and revenged himself upon them;
Eze 25:13 Therefore thus saith the Lord GOD; I will also stretch out mine hand upon Edom, and will cut off man and beast from it; and I will make it desolate from Teman; and they of Dedan shall fall by the sword.
Eze 25:14 And I will lay my vengeance upon Edom by the hand of my people Israel: and they shall do in Edom according to mine anger and according to my fury; and they shall know my vengeance, saith the Lord GOD.
Eze 35:10 Because thou hast said, These two nations and these two countries (Israel and Yehuda) shall be mine, and we will possess it; whereas the LORD was there: KJV
Eze 35:10 Because thou saidst, The two nations and the two countries (Israel and Yehuda) shall be mine, and I shall inherit them; whereas the Lord is there: Brenton’s LXX
Eze 35:12 And thou shalt know that I am the LORD, and that I have heard all thy blasphemies which thou hast spoken against the mountains of Israel, saying, They are laid desolate, they are given us to consume. KJV
Eze 35:12 and thou shalt know that I am the Lord. I have heard the voice of thy blasphemies, whereas thou hast said, The desert mountains of Israel are given to us for food; Brenton’s LXX
Eze 36:5 Therefore thus saith the Lord GOD; Surely in the fire of my jealousy have I spoken against the residue of the heathen, and against all Idumea, which have appointed my land into their possession with the joy of all their heart, with despiteful minds, to cast it out for a prey. KJV
Eze 36:5 therefore, thus saith the Lord; Verily in the fire of my wrath have I spoken against the rest of the nations, and against all Idumea, because they have appropriated my land to themselves for a possession with joy, disregarding the lives of the inhabitants, to destroy it by plunder: Brenton’s LXX
The larger issue is then the prophesied destiny of these Edomite-Jews.
In Psalm 83:6 re End Time Confederacy Land Invasion, it is the Tabernacle of Edom that leads in alliance with the Ishmaelites ( Saudi Arabia) wages war against the true Israelites and thinks of usurping and seizing the city of God.
Psa 83:12 They said, “We will inherit for us The City of God”. Peshitta Tanach
Psa 83:12 who said, let us take to ourselves the altar of God as an inheritance. Brenton LXX
In Malachi 1:4 it is Edom that usurps the Desolated Places of Jerusalem and rebuilds them but God throws down anything they rebuild.
Mal 1:4 Whereas Edom saith, We are impoverished, but we will return and build the desolate places; thus saith the LORD of hosts, They shall build, but I will throw down; and they shall call them, The border of wickedness, and, The people against whom the LORD hath indignation for ever.
This already happened once against the Jewish Temple being rebuilt in 363 AD with Roman Emperor Julian the Apostate’s help.
https://www.fisheaters.com/juliantemple.html
http://bibleprobe.com/rebuildingthetemple.htm
The terrible coming Vengeance of the Lord against end time Babylon is for His Temple. End time Mystery Babylon has made alliance with Edom and Arabia to rebuild the Temple in Jerusalem. All will be destroyed by the Lord using the Medes and Elam ( Persia aka Iran) Isaiah 21 & 22.
Jer 50:28 The voice of them that flee and escape out of the land of Babylon, to declare in Zion the vengeance of the LORD our God, the vengeance of his temple.
Jer 51:11 Make bright the arrows; gather the shields: the LORD hath raised up the spirit of the kings of the Medes: for his device is against Babylon, to destroy it; because it is the vengeance of the LORD, the vengeance of his temple.
Then what about the Holocaust? Isn’t the horror of the holocaust enough validation for the possession of the Land of Israel?
In Genesis 27:40 & 41 It is Esau that gets the curse of “living by the sword” (dying by the sword Rev 13:10) but not Yacov. Yacov is persecuted by Esau’s unrelenting hatred (Ezek 35:5-6), once Esau dumps the yoke that Yacov had previously enforced on Esau (Gen 27:40). This is also known as the trouble of Yacov (Jer 30:7). But it is persecution by his own flesh and blood brother, Esau, not by a 20th Century Aryan European National Socialist.
Finally, the land invasion of Ezekiel 38 known as Gog has already happened pre and post1948 since it required the invasion of UNWALLED VILLAGES by invaders and raiders from the North (European invaders) plus Iranian Jews, plus Ethiopian falasha Jews (Operation Moses) plus Libyan Mitzrahi Jews.
Eze 38:11 And thou shalt say, I will go up to the land of unwalled villages; I will go to them that are at rest, that dwell safely, all of them DWELLING WITHOUT WALLS, and having neither bars nor gates,
Anyone who has visited the land of Israel is aware that it is crisscrossed with massive concrete walls.
Thank you Ollie for your great summation. I would like to particularly highlight this paragraph as I feel those few lines explain so much. And to those who complain about the air strikes on Syria – hopefully they now understand why. Thanks for highlighting the Zionist/Apartied State’s influence in Ukraine too:
“…Another layer of the Israel problem is the fact that America is standing behind it (and thus the diplomatic support of many banana republics) and an illegal nuclear program, so it’s leverage when compared to Syria’s is superior, hence why the air strikes happen in the first place. The incident with the downing of the Russian surveillance plane didn’t really change much, because Moscow knows that apartheid Israel is the main troublemaker in the Middle East (and even more so in Ukraine – those who truly understand Ukrainian history will understand why I say this), and the Syrian war coming to an end (whilst strengthening Israel’s neighbours in parallel) is in itself a blow to Tel Aviv….”
“So what in all honesty does Israel hope to do?”
Be the seat of power in the nazi west. That’s what “greater” israel is all about. They are almost there. Effectively, they are running things now. And transparently, barely bothering with the past covers they used to use to hide their influence.
Your take seems to get support from Alastaire Crooke, “Russia’s Middle East Brinkmanship vs. Acquiescence to Trump’s Greater Israel Plan,”
https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2019/06/04/russias-middle-east-brinkmanship-vs-acquiescence-to-trumps-greater-israel-plan/
Summary:
“The problem here is that all these ‘additional complications’ which Lavrov noted, are not separate and discrete. They are directly linked to the ‘Greater Israel’ project of President Trump.”
Will the Russians throw the Palestinians under the bus?
Another interesting perspective, on the Russian “fifth column” in the JSP (Jewish State in Palestine) is that of Thierry Meyssan, writing about Avigdor Liberman, specifically, his profile as being allied with a large bloc of *secular* Soviet nationalist Jews in the JSP. Meyssan postulates that LIberman is closer to the Kremlin than to Foggy Bottom.
https://www.voltairenet.org/article206658.html
Katherine
Katherine
This is a very good article that pulls together a lot of pieces…and arranges them into a ‘big picture’ that shows us where we are in Syria…and how we got here…
But I think there are a couple of ‘pieces’ that need filling out…
First and foremost is the inescapable conclusion the the western powers [if only their ‘collective deep state’ that seems to have the final say on everything]…is not about to let go of Idlib…and Turkey is still in play here too, because its own ambitions for Syria coincide with those of the western die harders…
We saw what happened last September as the final assault on Idlib was about to get under way…the Russians were surely getting such harsh [private channels] pushback from the west, that Erdogan was quickly summoned to Sochi and a ‘demilitarized’ zone was immediately announced…the invasion was canceled…
The urgency of that U turn speaks to the tremendous pushback from the western powers…and just to underline their determination, the west knocked down that state of the art Russian spy plane, with more than a dozen valuable specialists on board…within hours of that agreement…
There was never any shot from a Syrian S200…anyone with bona fide creds in military aviation will tell you that…and I definitively took apart this cover story on the UNZ forum…with all the technical details…[for those who doubt this, the short answer is that it is physically impossible to ‘mask’ two airplanes into a single target from that relatively short distance from the radar…even with ATC radar this is impossible at distances under about 30 nautical miles…never mind the air defense radars with an order of magnitude finer resolution…]
Almost certainly it was an air to air shot from one of the two British fighter jets in the air at that time…clue…within 48 hours the Russians declared a NOTAM for the Cyprus FIR [flight information region]…encircling the island and its Akrotiri RAF base…with live fire drills from Russian naval ships…basically a no fly zone from surface to 18,000 ft…[notice the neighboring Tel Aviv FIR, near where the Ilyushin actually went down, was excluded from the NOTAM…ONLY CYPRUS…
One look at the NOTAM [notice to airmen] map, makes this plain as day…
https://i.postimg.cc/k4pvCxXF/Cyprus-Notam-markup.jpg
This is entirely in line with the ‘smashmouth’ mentality of the deep state…as is the use of the Brits as their cat’s paw…
The Russians were again in the same position as the Su24 downing by Turkey, three years prior, only worse…sure, they could flatten Akrotiri in an hour…[and start WW3]…fortunately for all, the Israelis happened to be buzzing around at the same time [knowingly or not] and they got the goat horns…the countermove was the immediate delivery of several battalions of Russian domestic grade S300s…notice also that those have never been used against Israel…they are there for somebody else…guess who…?…revenge is a dish best served cold…accidents do happen…
So the situation around Idlib is a very dicey one…the Borg is still not ready to cough up Idlib…and Putin now knows very well that they are ready to escalate wildly…one misstep and the whole thing could go up like a roman candle…
At the same time, Turkey is still lending support and arms to the Idlib rats…as Peter Ford points out in his excellent piece that another reader here linked to…
https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5c2f801b9772ae6d89f7eb45/t/5cf63af897a71f00013ca94b/1559640825016/Update_Peter+Ford_4+June+2019.pdf
‘The only way realistically to limit the fighting is for Turkey to withdraw its support for the jihadis …as part of some grand bargain involving Russia, Turkey, Iran and Syria.’
Are we there yet…?
We do seem to be heading in that direction, as Erdogan is increasingly forced to finally get off the fence and dance with one or the other…at the same time, the Russian strategy is to keep ‘nibbling’ away at Idlib…[eating the elephant one piece at a time]…