Note: after three months away (mostly) from the blog, it is a real pleasure for me to come back. Simply put – I missed you and I missed writing analyses. Thus I am truly delighted to be back and I want to once again thank all those who patiently waited for me to recharge my batteries. Your support means the world to me! Thank you for everything!
Andrei
***
Five months ago, on February 24th, Russia began what she called a “special military operation” (SMO). In very simple terms, this is what Russia has achieved so far: Ukraine has lost about 20% of its territory, about 3 thousand towns and villages, half of the gross national product, and a third of coal production. It completely lost access to the Sea of Azov, and traffic through the Black Sea ports froze due to fighting and mining of waterways. The number of refugees has reached 7 million (source).
But these factoids don’t even begin to tell the full story. There would be many ways that this story could be told, but to begin I want to list a few elements of the official Western narrative which have now faceplanted and nobody sane would take seriously. I will present a few them in no specific order (and I will ignore the most idiotic ones, including that Putin is dying of cancer or very sick (check here for 50 headlines about this!) – he is not, to the great chagrin of the CIA – or that Shoigu wants to overthrow him).
“Russia is losing the war, was defeated by the Ukronazis near Kiev, she is running out of ammunition and supplies and is about to collapse”.
First, if you look at the size of the Russian force which took the Antonov airport near Kiev (one airborne regiment) and the size of the force which moved by land towards that airport, you can easily convince yourself that this force was not intended to attack or invade Kiev. This force did exactly what it was intended to do, it forces the Ukronazis to move forces to protect Kiev and, thereby, it pinned them down just long enough to establish air superiority, attack and cut off the forces near and in the Donbass, destroy the Ukrainian C4I and almost the entire Ukrainian air force. This took just a few days and once that mission was completed, these forces withdrew as they had literally nothing to gain by staying in place. If anything it is the Ukrainian side which is running out of weapons, supplies and soldiers (more about that later). The Russians have all the firepower they need for many years ahead.
“Russia had to change her plans and tactics because of the heavy losses suffered by the Russian military early in the operation”
Actually, there is a grain of truth here, but not the correct explanation. As I have mentioned several times, the special military operation is “special” because it is an operation which is not a regular combined arms operation. The Russians began the SMO with fewer soldiers than the opposing side, and they privileged maneuver and long range strikes over the taking and holding of towns and cities. Most crucially, the Russians very deliberately tried all they could to minimize Ukrainian casualties and to preserve the Ukrainian civilian infrastructure (unlike the “democratic” countries out there who first destroy power plants, bridges, water stations, etc. to inflict the maximum of “shock and awe” on the civilian population!). The Russians could have easily turned, say, Kiev into Baghdad or Belgrade under US/NATO bombs, but they deliberately chose to save as many lives and civilian infrastructure as possible, even at the cost of lives of Russian soldiers).
[Sidebar: a prefect example is the small town of Avdeevka, near Donetsk, which is heavily fortified and from which the Ukronazis shell not only Donetsk, but also other towns such as Makeevka killing people and destroying the civilian infrastructure every day. The Russians could use their TOS-1A “Solntsepyok”, airborne FAE, FAB-3000 bombs, heavy mortars and plenty of other weapons to simply turn all of Avdeevka into a lifeless desert. But here is the problem: Avdeevka is full of civilians, including relatives of LDNR combatants. Furthermore, if Russia used such weapons, it would only feed the Anglo-Zionist propaganda to create a “victastar” city à la Sarajevo or even accuse the Russians of a Srebrenica-like “genocide”. The precedent of Bucha is something which limits the Russians in two major ways: first, it makes it almost impossible to retreat, now that we know that the Ukronazis will massacre all the “collaborators” in the area left by Russian forces and, second, it means that any major strike, no matter how militarily justified, will be turned into a “massacre” just like in Bosnia, Kosovo or Syria.
What apparently did take the Russians by surprise is the willingness of the Ukrainian forces in some towns to attack the Russian columns even though the local authorities seemed to have indicated to the Russians that, like in, say, Kherson, their city would not resist. Simply put, they chose the Mariupol model rather than the Kherson model. This choice was mainly dictated by the very powerful Nazi death squads who would at best arrest anybody negotiating with Russia and, at worst, simply shoot them on the spot. The Russians found plenty of bodies of executed Ukrainian soldiers.
But this does not tell the full story either.
The truth is that by the laws of warfare the Ukraine lost the war in less than a week.
What is my evidence for such an apparently outlandish and over-the-top statement? Simple: since the beginning of the SMO, the Ukrainians failed to execute a single operational level attack or counter-attack. At most they were able to execute small, tactical level attacks, the vast majority of which almost instantly failed, a few were defeated in a few days, and, crucially, not a single one gave the Ukrainian side the operational initiative. Not once.
So what happened?
If Kiev had any agency and if the Ukrainian leadership cared about their country and people, they would have immediately sued for peace. But Kiev never had any agency and the buffoons in power do not give a damn about the Ukrainian people.
Instead, it was the US that told the Ukrainians to never surrender or pull back, even if that meant huge losses in both manpower and firepower. The West, which despises and hates the Ukrainians almost as much as it hates the Russians were delighted to see the hated Ukrainians and the hated Russians killing each other (well, mostly Russians doing the killing). Furthermore, being military incompetent, the leaders of the West apparently believed that supplying weapons, money, instructors, and special forces to the Ukrainians could, if not turn the tide, slow down Russia enough to create fear, uncertainty, and doubts in the Russian public opinion. That plan also spectacularly failed, Putin is as popular as ever, the 5th column and the 6th columns in Russia are in despair (many emigrate) and the SMO has the full support of the Russian nation.
As for the much talked about “Russian plans”, which nobody has seen, they are not like the plan for a building. They are not fixed, but highly flexible and reactive and, in fact, they are constantly adjusted and refined in response to the developments on the ground. So while the Russians did have hopes that much/most of the eastern Ukraine would follow the “Kherson model” they were quick to adapt to the reality that the US and its Nazi agents in the Ukrainian military would force the eastern Ukraine to follow the “Mariupol model”. So yes, operational plans are like water in a stream, depending on the obstacles encountered, they can go left or they can go right to bypass that obstacle, but in either case, they are going down towards the ocean. The fact that armchair strategists declared that Russia “changed plans” simply proves that they don’t understand how operational planning works.
[Sidebar: most people in the West think of military operations as something similar to US football: there are “lines/fronts” which are defended and most forces are facing each other along these lines. This is not so. Modern warfare is much more similar to European soccer, where each player is “attached” to an opposing player and these players constantly maneuver and regularly engage each other. For example, modern warfare does not really have a “front” and a “rear” as we can see from the Russian strikes deep inside the western Ukraine. Finally, modern warfare deeply relies on coordinated actions. That is to say that even if side A has, say, five subunits (say companies) you cannot add them up and count them as a regiment or brigade because they lack the ability for coordinated operations (nevermind joint or combined ones). Think of your hand, it has five fingers, but these five fingers only become a powerful fist if the five fingers act in unison and become one fist. So when somebody write about, say, 60’000 Ukrainian soldiers in the eastern Ukraine, this describes a X number of platoons, companies, regiments or even “brigades” (I put quotation marks because these are not real brigades with a full table of organization and equipment), these subunits are not capable of coordinating their actions like the Russian military does. There is a lot of talk about “network centric warfare” which is nothing but combined arms operations on steroids, where the level of integration includes a full fusion of all C4ISR data into one common real time picture of the battlefield and a full coordination of all military forces/means. By the way, only Russia has fully developed such a capability (though the US has also made some serious progress in this field)].
Now let’s address two smaller but nonetheless crucial lies told by some about Russia:
“There are no Atlantic Integrationists or Eurasian Sovereignists in Russia”
If anything, this war has resulted in a major shakeup of the Russian society where some folks suddenly showed their true feelings. Examples range from Russian journalists standing with an anti-war sign behind a newscaster to those Russians abroad who either agreed to condemn Putin and the SMO or accepted to participate in various events under a neutral or foreign flag, to Dmitri Medvedev now changing his tune 180 degrees and rebranding himself as an ultra-patriot. I listed those examples because they are known in the West, but inside Russia, there are many more such examples, including amongst business executives and elected officials. Finally, even Putin himself mentioned the existence of such internal enemies of Russia. The fact that Russia has now expanded the definition of “treason” means that pro-US agents in Russia now face a major risk for their activities. Some 5th columnists have already been sentenced to jail. As for the 6th columnists, they still hate Putin with a passion and are still chanting their “all is lost” mantra, but (almost) nobody takes them seriously anymore.
The irony is that the US wanted to create a crisis to overthrow Putin but, instead, this crisis gave him yet another boost in popularity, in spite of some very real problems (automotive sector, civilian airliners, etc.).
Next,
“Putin is an Israeli stooge, he works hand in glove with the Israelis”
In reality, it is pretty obvious that the most vociferous Russophobes in the West are overwhelmingly Jews, both inside and outside Israel. Usually, the invoked excuse is that there were anti-Jewish pogroms in Russia. Yet, in reality, all those pogroms happened in what is today the Ukraine, and yet it is pretty clear that Zionist and Jewish organizations are overwhelmingly siding with Kiev (in spite of the regime in power being undeniably Nazi), and only very few individuals side with Russia (but they exist and should never be overlooked). As for the Kremlin, it is getting fed up with the Israeli arrogance in Syria (even if the Israeli airstrikes are ineffective and make no difference for the reality on the ground) and the Russians are now demanding that the Israelis cease their attacks on Syria. The Israelis cannot stop, for internal political and even psychotherapeutic reasons, but one of two things are likely to happen: the Israeli attacks will become even more useless and symbolic, or Russia will shoot down an Israeli aircraft.
But enough about Israel here, this is only a small part of the Anglo-Zionist Empire run by the USA. Now let’s turn to the West’s actions over the past 5 months.
So what about the US/NATO/EU in all this?
First, I want to make it clear that I strongly believe that the Anglo-Zionist Empire died on January 8th, 2020 when it allowed Iran to bomb CENTCOM bases without even a single bullet being fired back. That day the Empire showed the world that it did not even have what it takes to attack Iran. As for the USA, they died on January 6th, 2021.
However, remember my example above contrasting 5 fingers with a fist? While the Empire as we knew it and the USA as we knew it did die, that does not mean that its composing parts all vanished in thin air. Countries and Empires have momentum, just like the Titanic, when they have been mortally wounded. Simply put, the final process of sinking takes time. The Russian Empire died in February of 1917, yet the civil war lasted until 1923 (and I would even argue until WWII).
Second, there are two totally different planes in which the West (well, really the USA) decided to fight Russia:
- First, it declared total proxy war on Russia, but only total short of a direct war military confrontation with Russia
- Second, a total #cancelRussia in the PR/propaganda virtual reality. These infantile actions (latest example here) show how frustrated and powerless the West really is.
For years now I have stated many, many times that Russia and the Empire were locked into an existential war from which only one side would walk away. I usually added that this total war was about 80% informational, 15% economic and only 5% kinetic. I hesitate to provide numbers here, but I would say that after a very strong success in the first 2-3 months of the SMO, the informational war initially won by the West is now fizzling out. The economic war massively grew, as did the kinetic one (albeit still by proxy). I am very reluctant to provide numbers here, but very tentatively I would score the current war as maybe 10% informational, 50% economic and maybe 40% kinetic. Again, please don’t focus on these very tentative figures, the key thing is this: as per President “Biden”, the goal of the USA is to inflict a strategic failure on Russia. The same stuff was also spoken by the EU, UK politicians and pretty much everybody in the West.
As for the demented Poles, one of their former Presidents and Nobel Prize winner declared that he wants to reduce the population of Russia down to 50 million. Then there are the Brits, who still want to be “Great” or, at least, relevant, and who speak about “leading the free world” against Russia with such stellar allies as Poland, the 3B statelets and Banderastan.
And yet, let’s look at the outcomes on three levels:
- Military: the best proxy the USA had in history (the Ukrainian armed forces) is being slowly and inexorably destroyed by about only 8-10 percent of the Russian armed forces.
- Economic: while some sectors in Russia did suffer from the so-called “sanctions” (they are not sanctions, but acts of war and crude robbery, only the UNSC can impose legal sanctions), all in all, Russia did great, and seems to be set on a path for economic success due to the fact that a) most countries have refused to obey Washington’s demands and b) the Russian economy is powerful and real, not virtual like the Western economies. It will take a couple of years for Russia to adapt, but now that this process has begun, it is unstoppable.
- Propaganda: here the image is pretty clear: on one hand we have the USA and its colonies, then a few countries with comprador elites that are hated by most people, and countries that openly defy Washington. This is best expressed by this map from the Chinese foreign ministry:
One key characteristic of the countries shown in red on the bottom (realistic) map is that all these countries have two crucial factors in common: a) they (mostly) lack real resources (since their civilizations were always built on imperialism, colonialism and plain robbery) b) they hate Russia so much that they are willing to take measures which hurt themselves much more than they hurt Russia. This type of hate-saturated insanity reminds me of an old Soviet joke: “in a small village, a local discovers a bottle and when he opens it, a genie comes out and says: since you have liberated me, I will grant you one wish, the only condition is that your next door neighbor will get double of what you will. Then the man thought for a while and replied: please poke one of my eyes out!”. This is the current mental state of Western “leaders”…
That is the core “philosophy” of the USA: fight Russia to the last Ukrainian, prolong the war as long as possible, get as much of the civilian infrastructure of the Ukraine destroyed, subvert the status of the dollar, crash the world economy, let the EU crash and burn economically, socially, and politically, shove the Woke agenda down everyone’s throats, even if that makes them gag and throw up and, last but not least, totally and comprehensively stick your head in the sand and deny reality in all its aspects.
Yes, the West is so soaked in rabid hatred and fear of Russia that it prefers to commit collective suicide rather than accept any type of coexistence with a sovereign Russia.
Hitler’s comparatively vague/ambiguous/oblique slogan of “Drang nach Osten” has now been replaced by a much more candid and unambiguous #cancelRussia slogan. Same idea, just much more “in your face”.
Truth be told, most of the so-called “West” is really run by these three groups, in order of influence:
- The US Neocons
- The Anglo imperialists
- The EU comprador ruling elites
This reminds me very much of an album by Roger Waters called “Animals” in which he separates our modern societies into three archetypes: dogs, pigs and sheep. Needless to say, the dogs and pigs will run the sheep, but as soon as a (Russian) bear shows up, they are powerless against him.
This small image tells the true story about the Ruble “turning into rubble” as “Biden” promised.
This is what we see now and which will probably continue well into 2023. The fact that the economic warfare waged against Russia or the promise of Wunderwaffen has totally failed will never be admitted by these deeply psychopathic and terminally delusional people. And if they cannot double down ad infinitum in their actions, they sure will continue to double down in their rhetoric, just as the orchestra continued to play while the “unsinkable” Titanic was sinking.
Still, at least some of the regular folks in the West are smelling the roses, hence the dismal rating of ALL the Western political leaders. The hostility of many US Americans even results in polls that suggest that many of them would want to secede from the other states, in this case Trump voters. Considering that Trump voters are, as a rule, far more patriotic than Woke-soaked US “liberals”, this is very telling. But also ironic: the USA wants to break up Russia and ends up breaking up itself. Karma?
Not only. Let’s look at the map which shows which countries did and did not impose “sanctions” on Russia:
Notice that pretty much the entire green zone is composed of countries that the West has invaded, robbed, devastated, enslaved, subverted, forcibly converted, bombed, economically “sanctioned” with blockades and blackmail (by means so-called “secondary sanctions” which is a euphemism for blackmail and extortion) and, more recently, upon which the full satanic insanity of Wokeness has been imposed (hence the US embassies flying “homopride” flags). The population of these green countries, which I call “Zone B”, knows the true score and they mostly hate and despise the West. And that places all their comprador ruling elites in a very tricky situation: their US masters want them to declare total war on Russia while their population is mostly sympathetic to Russia. In the past, this would have been a no-brainer, Uncle Shmuel with his CIA-run death squads, aircraft carriers and seemingly infinite money printing capability was much more vital to these comprador elites than their own population. But now that death squads have been largely replaced with woked-out fairies which are only good at shooting unarmed civilians, now that US aircraft carriers don’t really frighten even countries like Iran, the DPRK or Venezuela and now that the entire Western-built international economic and financial system is collapsing, these comprador elites have to become much, much more careful lest they end up like the US stooges in Bolivia: out of power and in jail. Even Colombia seems to be slowly slipping away, as does Brazil. And I won’t even mention the absolute lack of utility of the likes of Guaido, Tikhanovskaia or the “friends of Syria” gang (Maduro, Lukashenko and Assad are all doing great, thank you!).
The writing is on the wall, and only those who deliberately shut their eyes fail to see it.
This leaves us with the issue of the US Neocons.
What about the Western ruling classes, what impact, if any, did the SMO have on them?
First, let’s define our categories. In the EU we don’t really have any real “ruling class”, we only have frontmen (sorry! I meant “frontpersons” of course), puppets, pretend-rulers with no agency whatsoever (Olaf Scholz and Josep Borrell are perfect examples) . There is no European “defense policy” or any other meaningful evidence of agency on any level. The EU is dead, clueless and totally in the control of the US Neocons.
Second, in the USA, Neocons rule supreme, having total control of both major parties in the US. And while the GOP base is very different from the Dem’s base, their leaders are mostly interchangeable. So I will consider them as one.
Their mindset and worldview are pretty clear: they are messianic supremacists and sincerely consider themselves racially superior to the rest of mankind. The fusion of Anglo imperialism and Jewish supremacism has yielded the monster we now know as “Neocons”. These folks excel in the art of accumulating power, by hook or by crook. They like to claim that they have superior intelligence, but in reality, what separates these people is not brainpower, but two key aspects of their worldview: a) tribalism and b) drive. Simply put, most other people do not have this tribal “us against them” mindset, and only a subsection of regular people are truly driven to power and influence. Hence, while being a numerically small minority, the US Neocons are in full control of the USA.
Their psychological profile is narcissistic at best, and fully psychopathic in most cases. That also gives them an advantage, especially when dealing with weak, ignorant and easily influenceable people. But when they meet a determined pushback, be it by Russia, Iran, the DPRK or even Hezbollah, they quickly become clueless and helpless. Check the expression of Blinken on the photo above – that is the face of a coward and a loser. He might have become a decent tailor, instead, he was asked to run the foreign policy of the (now former) superpower. No wonder all he ever produced was disasters and abject failures!
Initially, feeling buoyant from their total control over Eltsin and the Russian liberals, the US Neocons celebrated victory. Then something went very wrong and suddenly they were faced with a radically different kind of leader, one with the massive support of the Russian people. Remember here that Putin was an intelligence officer specializing in the West, thus a man who had a very good understanding of his enemies. Furthermore, Putin was patient enough to realize that in the early years of the confrontation with the West, Russia was in no condition to openly defy the West, let alone fight it militarily. This is why he stopped the LDNR forces from moving any further westwards in 2014-2015 even though the Ukrainian military was in disarray. While he knew that during the time the Ukrainians were in a panic and disorganized, he also knew that Russia could not take on the consolidated West. So between 2014 and 2018 Russia made a gigantic effort to develop the kind of capabilities needed to be able to take on all of NATO and win. By the time of the Russian ultimatum to the West last Fall, Russia was finally ready.
Notice that the Russian ultimatum was not an ultimatum to Kiev as much as it was a direct challenge to the US and NATO. The Neocons, drunk on their bravado and sense of racial superiority, basically told Russia to screw herself and doubled down in their rhetoric. And when Russia moved in, they truly freaked out, hence their suicidal policies towards Russia ever since. These folks mistakenly assumed that while Russia might (maybe!) prevail over the Ukrainian forces, they were confident that Putin would not dare openly defy the consolidated West. And when Putin did just that, they went into full panic mode, hence the nonsense we hear from the Western capitals on a daily basis.
But it got even worse. Far from being deterred by Western promises of fire and brimstone, the Russians then proceeded to methodically destroy the Ukrainian armed forces. In spite of the Ukrainian military being the best proxy force in US history, in spite of BILLIONS given to the Nazi regime each month, in spite of all sorts of super-dooper Wunderwaffen deliveries, in spite of economic warfare, Russia is now pounding the Ukie+Western forces in the Ukraine day after day after day and while the US is ordering the Ukrainians to fight to the end and never withdraw, the many waves of Volkssturm reinforcements have had no impact on Russian warfighting capabilities. The US also ordered its vassal states in eastern Europe to send their large supplies of Soviet era weapons to the Ukraine (over 300 tanks just from Poland!), and Ukrainian-branded Mi-24s, Su-25s and MiG-29s still are seen in the Ukrainian skies almost daily in spite of the fact that almost the entire Ukrainian air force was destroyed in the first 3 days of the war. Helicopters are easy to hide, “Ukrainian” aircraft take off from bases in Poland and Romania, and yet they don’t seem to make a difference: for most of them, it is a one-way mission and they know it. But it is good PR, even if it costs lives (at least that is what Uncle Shmuel thinks). But now that the already low credibility of the legacy corporate media is in freefall, even such PR “victories” yield very little traction:
It is outright comical to hear Western countries (Germany, Italy and even the USA) whining about their weapons stores getting depleted while all these truly huge deliveries have not made any difference at all on the ground since the beginning of combat operations.
[Sidebar: does Russia have air superiority over the Ukraine? Yes, absolutely. A few helicopters or fixed wing aircraft on one way missions make no difference here. In fact, a much bigger threat to the Russian Aerospace Forces are the Ukrainian air defenses which, while old, have often been modernized and have the full support of US C4ISR (Command, Control, Communication, Cyber, Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance) including surveillance drone, AWACS, satellites, SIGNIT, etc. etc. etc. and yet the Russians have adapted: the close air support aircraft fly low, while their SEAD (suppression of enemy air defenses) fly high with long range anti-radiation missiles on the ready. A quick reminder, while the USAF/USN has often achieved air supremacy over countries without a modern air force or any modern air defenses, it failed to knock out the Serbian air defenses during the Anglo-Zionist wars against the Serbian nation. In fact, the USAF/USN *never* operated in an environment as dangerous as the one currently created over the Ukraine, but the comparatively much smaller Russian Aerospace Force did achieve and maintain air superiority over this huge country. As for air supremacy (as opposed to superiority), it is only achievable against a very poorly armed adversary: air superiority is the best one can hope to achieve, even theoretically, over any country with serious air defenses]
And yet, the (comparatively small, but more modern) Russian aerospace forces have achieved and maintained air superiority throughout the past 5 months of combat operations. This is an extremely alarming sign for the US and NATO forces. Just imagine what the full might of the Russian armed forces would do to NATO if it was unleashed!
But it gets even worse (for the Empire, that is): there are all the signs and even clear messages that Putin is not “bluffing” at all and that Russia has full escalation dominance over the West. but it is now becoming quite evident that the Kremlin will not stop under any circumstances short of a total victory, and if that means nuclear war, so be it. And the Russian people are overwhelmingly supportive of this stance.
Why?
Because the Russian people have now FINALLY seen the true face of the West, they now understand that this is nothing else but a continuation of WWII and that the very existence and sovereignty of the Russian people are at stake. Again, Putin said it clearly: “if someone makes a decision to destroy Russia, we have every right to fight back. Yes, it would be a global disaster for humanity and for the world, but being a Russian citizen and head of Russia, I want to ask a question, “What’s the point of the world without Russia?“. If these were just empty words, like what Biden reads (with difficulty) from his teleprompter, that would be one thing, but these words need to be remembered in the context of the deployment of Avangards, Poseidons, S-500 and all the other weapons and tactics developed by Russia while the Neocons, drunk with arrogance, slept at the wheel.
So no, while Putin rarely makes threats, he never bluffs.
Bottom line is this: anybody who sincerely believes that Russia will not wipe out the entire West if she is seriously threatened is terminally delusional, knows nothing about history, and does not understand the Russian mindset. They would do so at their own peril.
If there is one message I want to convey to anybody willing to listen it is this: Putin is not bluffing, the West cannot win, and the only variable here is what price the West is willing to pay for its defeat.
By the way, the Chinese are also getting mighty fed up with the crazies in DC, just check out their latest statements.
Will somebody actually take action against the Neocons? I doubt it. If anything, the entire Trump debacle has proven beyond any reasonable doubt that US anti-Neocons are either fakes, or that they have the willpower of a case of jello (that also goes for Tulsi Gabbard, by the way). Will the Neocons realize that if they persist in doubling down, they will personally and physically die? Maybe. At the end of the day, the US can afford to have a comprehensively destroyed Ukraine and a not less comprehensively destroyed EU. Now that the UK has left the EU, the Anglos couldn’t care less, and triggering wars in Europe is a time-honored British tradition anyway.
The real blowback from the Neocons’ arrogance and ignorance is that far from dealing with Russia first and with China as an end goal, they have greatly contributed to a major strengthening of the Russian, Chinese and Indian alliance.
The Neocons could decide to let Europe burn, while they remain in control of the USA which, unlike the EU, has plenty of natural resources and will remain, if not a world hegemon, then at least a powerful nation. In that case, their plan is simple: to continue to push for a maximum confrontation and war in Europe, but short of involving the USA in a nuclear exchange with Russia. The Brits on their island might have similar plans, just on a smaller scale and with the vital need to fully rely on the support of the USA. In the “best” of cases (for them), the UK would be in charge of managing the chaos in Europe on behalf of the USA.
I don’t think that the Neocons give a damn about Israel and the Israeli people either, by the way. Nor do the Anglo ruling “elites” give a damn about the people of the USA or the UK. If there is one lesson we must take from the horror of 9/11 is that these people won’t hesitate to murder thousands of “their own” because, in reality, for all the patriotic or Zionist flag-waving, they only care about themselves and their power.
NATO is a joke, and sooner or later, Russia will denazify all of the EU, either politically and economically, or, if no other option is left, militarily. First, the Ukraine, then the 3B+P crazies will have to be denazified. Next will be the turn of the EU/NATO beginning with Germany. By then, the US will have suffered a massive economic, social and cultural disaster which will probably reformat the current US polity. Where will the Neocons go next? I don’t know and, frankly, I don’t care. The Neocons are only dangerous just like a parasite that invades the brain of a much larger host. Once the host is down, the parasite might as well leave ditch it and find a new host. By itself, this parasite is weak and universally disliked.
In the meantime, the stupidified Woke-sheep can keep themselves busy wondering if men can give birth or deciding whether a “twerking” senator will solve the USA’s many problems.
So where do we go from here?
Well, at least so far, the leaders of the USA are still in full “double down forever” mode, along with their volunteer slaves in eastern Europe. Their plan for Russia is best visualized with this map: (source)
These wet dreams even include the infamous “Idel Ural” which was denounced by Alexander Solzhenitsyn in his articles against the equally infamous “captive nations law”. In fact, this “law” has its origins from the CIA and Nazi Germany. So we can say that this is nothing but “same old, same old again”. Although not quite, some things have changed.
During WWII the Russian people quickly understood that Hitler was no “liberator”, no more than Napoleon before him, and that he only used that kind of language to try to achieve victory. Then, during the Cold War, it was easy to believe that the enemy of the West was Communism and its idea of universal liberation from the capitalist yoke. Surely, if Russia got rid of the CPSU the West would embrace such a free Russia?
Nope, the exact opposite happened: in spite the “all you can eat” “freedoms” of blue jeans, fast foods, crime and pornography, Russia was plundered and came very very close to totally breaking up (only the 2nd Chechen war with Putin as the Commander in Chief prevented that from happening). Instead of the promised “democratic heaven” Russia got deeply immersed in the worst kind of capitalist hell imaginable.
Furthermore, the combination of a rather inept Soviet propaganda machine and a much more effective Western propaganda gave many Russians the illusion that the West was a group of free and prosperous nations only wanting the best for Russia. The Western-run nightmare of the 90s opened the eyes of some, but not all. As did the apocalypse in the so-called “independent Ukraine”. But the kind of open, direct and absolute hatred for Russia, Putin and everything Russian we all see know has convinced the vast majority of Russians that what the West really wants is a “final solution” to the “Russian problem” not unlike what the Papist regime of Pavelic during WWII wanted for the Serbs: kill ⅓, expel another ⅓ and “convert” the remaining ⅓.
Some things never change, especially not in the West. The Muslims are all spot on when they speak of the “modern Crusaders”!
So far, Russia has only been observing with some amazement, and even amusement, how the EU was committing economic, political and social suicide without even trying to improve its fate. For the people of Europe, there is only one thing more important than their imperialistic and racist mindset: their wallets. And that wallet has been hurting pretty badly since the self-defeating “sanctions” against Russia were implemented. In Russia that attitude is referred to as a “kid freezing his own ears to piss off his granny”: infantile, self-defeating and simply stupid. That being said: how many regimes (by that I mean political systems, as opposed to governments which are specific people; for example, if Truss replaces Johnson in the UK, this will be a government change, but not a regime change) are threatened by popular discontent in the EU?
The sad reality is that none. Oh sure, they are immensely unpopular, just like “Biden” is in the USA, but changing the puppet figureheads will do nothing to change the regimes in power (basically US-controlled colonial occupation regimes).
It is therefore likely that Russia will have to turn up the pain dial quite a few notches up before the sheep in the EU or the US come to their senses. Primarily, I think of economic measures, but if the crazies from the 3B+PU do something really stupid Russia will not hesitate to use military power if/when needed. The bottom line is this: Russia needs to denazify all of the European continent, and the more countries are told to join NATO, the more candidates for denazification Russia will have.
It is impossible to predict the future, there are simply too many variables at this point, but I would offer the following tentative suggested steps towards escalation:
- Russia could gradually either refuse to sell her resources to Europe, not only gas and oil, of course, but everything else which Russia has been selling to the EU in the past for very good prices and which was a key to the wealth of the EU nations. So that would be a full-scale economic counter-attack from Russia against the EU. As an initial step, Russia could also demand to only be paid in Rubles for any and all exports to the EU.
- Russia is already killing scores of Polish, British and other mercenaries (excuse me, “advisors” and “volunteers”) in the Ukraine, but most of these are low-level grunts. Russia could decide to target higher ranks involved in the war against Russia, including targets in Kiev and elsewhere. So far Russia has unleashed only a tiny fraction of her real firepower, but if the US/NATO weapon deliveries and deployment of mercenaries increase, Russia will have little choice but to further turn up the pain dial. And if the Poles, or the Baltic statelets go “full crazy” strikes against targets in these countries will become inevitable (Putin has already warned against that when he mentioned striking the “decision making centers”).
- Finally, if Russia decides that enough is enough, the first targets of a Russian military response to the US/NATO proxy war would be to attack the US/NATO C4ISR capabilities, including AWACS/JSTARS aircraft, SIGINT centers and satellites.
Right now, these US/NATO aircraft are only flying along the Ukrainian airspace and remain based outside the Ukraine. But if, say, the US/NATO does actively participate in a strike against Crimea or the Crimean Bridge, then all bets will be off and S-400s and various standoff weapons will do the talking.
Imagine for a second that Russia shoots down a US AWACS/JSTARS, what will be the West’s reaction? And I don’t mean expressions of outrage and hatred, they are already at max and really have no effect on Russians. Would the US/NATO try to shoot down a Russian aircraft? And what would the Russian response to that be?
The truth is that the US/NATO simply don’t have the means to wage a land war against Russia. They literally lack everything needed to do that. Oh sure, they have many (mostly old and subsonic) cruise missiles which they could fire at Russia, but here again, this would pose a dilemma for the West: if the strikes are unsuccessful (as they were in Syria), what to do next? And if these strikes are successful, what would the Russians do next? Use their own conventional strategic deterrence capabilities to strike at targets all over Europe and possibly even the USA? And then what?
[Sidebar: airpower and cruise missiles are vastly overrated in the US propaganda. One of my teachers in college was a retired USAF Colonel who worked for the YF-23 program and who taught us a very good course in force planning. One day he said in class “what good does it do to you if you bomb all your targets, shoot down enemy aircraft if by the time you get back your officer’s club is filled with enemy soldiers?!” He was joking, of course, but what he knew is that only “boots on the ground” can win a war. And “boots on the ground” is exactly what neither the US, nor NATO (nor Israel or the KSA by the way) can deploy, especially against a military which has the biggest experience of land warfare on the planet, and by a huge margin!]
The truth is that the choice for the Neocons is binary: either accept defeat in Europe and keep the USA as their prize and host, or die in a major nuclear confrontation that will wipe out millions (which they don’t care about at all), including the Neocons themselves (which they care a lot about).
Try to reason with or convince messianic, narcissistic and delusional racist maniacs is a dangerous and mostly futile task. This is why Russia is turning the pain dial up very very slowly. Right now, most of the efforts of the Kremlin are not even directed at the West, but at forging the core of the future multilateral world, the BRICS countries and BRICS candidates (possibly including Iran, Argentina, Egypt, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Afghanistan, Mexico, Lebanon and Indonesia in the near future). Russia is also expanding her ties to Africa and Latin America. Last, but not least, Russia, China and India are constantly expanding their ties and even collaboration, especially with China.
In this respect, I would strongly recommend to the Neocons and their puppet regimes to carefully consider the implications of Putin’s words that “We haven’t really started yet anything in earnest yet” (мы ещё всерьёз и не начинали). That is not a threat, but a statement of fact. Whether the West will continue to pretend that Russia is about to collapse, or that Putin is bluffing, will determine what will happen next.
Right now, and exactly as I predicted would happen, Russia has basically totally given up on any form of dialog with the West, since the West has basically severed all its diplomatic ties with Russia. Put differently, Russia is now acting unilaterally without giving the moaning and threats from the West any consideration whatsoever. In fact, the stark reality is that Russia has no need, or use, for the West, especially a West trying to commit collective suicide by a million cuts. Right now, the West is mostly dialing up the pain dial on itself, with little or no Russian assistance. But that does not mean that Russia won’t proactively turn up that dial if/when needed. And if the sheep in the West prefer athletic events or chess tournaments without Russian participation, by all means, let them do it and, in the process, make these events meaningless. The same goes for all the #cancelRussia insanity out there, including the destruction of statues and monuments or sanctioning of Russian musicians. The putatively proud and freedom-loving East Europeans seem to especially relish their “glorious victories” against old Soviet statues and monuments. I say – let them, it just shown their impotence and utter irrelevance. If they have no respect for themselves, why should anybody else?
As the saying goes, “go woke, go broke”. A fitting epitaph on the West’s gravestone.
As for Russia, her real future lies in the South, East and North. She has no need or use for the West. Almost one thousand years of Western imperialism are coming to a shameful and self-inflicted death, one way or another. As I have written many times, that system was neither viable nor reformable. It will either die of its own internal contradictions, or Russia and China will have to cull it. They most definitely has the means to, but won’t act directly unless provoked.
But that, should it happen, is still further down the road. For the time being, we are entering a long phase (many months probably) of gradual pain dial increase. Russia will continue to grind down the NATO forces in the Ukraine and let the economic realities sink into the awareness of the European sheep.
As many observe in Russia: “now russophobia will come at a steep price”.
I couldn’t agree more.
Andrei
PS: the above was kind of a “bird’s eye view” trying to cover the key developments during the five past months. From now on, I will write shorter, but more frequent, analyses of specific issues. In this context, if you have questions or want me to address a specific topic in my future analyses, please let me know in the comments section below. Thank you!
I’m convinced the situation is much more complicated. So, a few notes from my point of view (EU, Czech Republic):
1.) The WEF/Davos singers agenda seems to running well – nobody will accept stupid “GreatReset” and its GreenDeal without economical and social breakdowns and that’s the reason why there are such idiots in the EU representatives. There were “zillions” of $/€ spent to corrupt EU puppets in the past and to fed up the hate propaganda on Russia. The “Soft Power” still works… (media, NGOs)
Have a look to The Sri Lanka’s case, it’s a kind of the Great Reset laboratory…
2.) Don’t think there are just Neocons as the only problem of this “conflict of civilisations”. It’s not such simple. I’m inclined to V. Pjakin’s (В. Пяакин) view – there are the “Global” predictor/elites and “Local/State” predictor/elites (US Deep State) and their goals are different. It seems that the GP is temporarily on the Russia’s side, but temporarily!!! Their goals and interests are different from Russia. It’s just the question of interests intersection…
3.) Russia (geographically) is still a part of the Europe, ever was and forever will be, doesn’t matter what western propaganda says. The core of the Russia’s nation is still slavic and Christian and is much closer to European culture than to the Asians. That’s why Russians were so patient with stupidity and weakness of EU…
Davos crowd is going nowhere. They have committed serious crimes and played some magic tricks but now, vast amount of people are waking up and can see the hocus-pocus for what it is. Soon their money will turn into dust, and their soulless bodies will vanish into many holes and cracks of our realm.
The EU BLINKED , I wonder what Mr. Blinken will say about this!
Russia’s aggression against Ukraine: EU adopts “maintenance and alignment” package
https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2022/07/21/russia-s-aggression-against-ukraine-eu-adopts-maintenance-and-alignment-package/
A major sanctions turnaround.
It seems wholly plausible that the early advance on Kyiv was premised, in part, on the hope that it would capitulate. But Ukie-trolls forever raise the “60 mile long” supply chain as pointing to a planned conquest of the city.
Welcome back, Andrei. i would only make two comments on your thoughtful essay. While i am also disappointed in Tuisi Gabbard, you seem more down on her and I would like to know why. And my second comment is that I think we need to be more cautious about the multipolar world that is emerging. We civilized humans, and not just those of us in the West, tend to prioritize “leadership” over democratic collaboration – which requires individual effort and, let’s face it, self-esteem, a quality that civilization has discouraged. We are mostly sheeple, not people.
For all her very good talking points, Tulsi Gabbard endorsed Hillary against Trump and then she also endorsed the ultimate fake: Bernie Sanders.
Thus she is just a safety valve for the DNC.
In other words, another pawn of the Neocons.
Kind regards
Andrei
And she is a war criminal by definition.
Major Tulsi Gabbard works in a Medical Unit, so not a “war criminal”.
I saw her on the Joe Rogan show at one point and it soon became clear she was just another player with the same little tyrant just waiting to get out and into a position of power. There are worse options, but not impressed basically.
Podría comentar sobre la incautación /congelación de los fondos del Banco Central? ¿Fue correcta la actuación del gobierno, del gobernador del banco central. ¿Pudieron haber evitado el expolio del Banco Central?
Could you comment on the seizure/freezing of Central Bank funds? Was the action of the government, the governor of the central bank, correct? Could they have prevented the looting of the Central Bank?
It’s good to have you back, Andrei, and even better to have you in good health.
Another very rational and cogent assessment of the situation.
It comes as no surprise whatsoever to see that the Ziocons have resurrected the long defunct General Plan Ost of Barbarossa vintage in their plans to dismember Russia, even if it is unclear at present how the Polacks propose to kill off 100 million Russians.
But I do sometimes wonder if Russia could have conducted operations with a greater sense of urgency. Delays only provide Uncle Sam and his puppets with time to dream up more malicious hare brained schemes like Kaliningrad, Spitzbergen, the Kerch Bridge and the rest. And to pour more miraculous “game changer wonder weapons” into the Ukraine, HIMARS, howitzers, swiss army knives, or whatever. These achieve little of any substance, but they are constantly seeking opportunities to kill more Russian soldiers. It also gives Zelensky and Co. the time to press gang more hapless Ukrainians into his Volkssturm as disposable cannon fodder (having evacuated all his co religionists to Israel at the start of the conflict.) And more opportunities for Bucha style hoaxes and false flags as grist for the western propaganda mill, with attendant atrocities by the Kiev Nazis against their own people. They surely deserve to be liberated in the shortest possible time.
Looking ahead over the next few months into 2023, what are we likely to see? The campaign is likely to continue for some months yet, with most or all of Ukraine being occupied and the process of reconstruction beginning in earnest. The near collapse or actual collapse of the German and European economies, with rampant inflation, a fuel and energy crisis, the shut down of hopelessly uncompetitive industries, mass unemployment, poverty and austerity. Europe becoming a de industrialised irrelevant backwater as the centre of gravity shifts to Asia. Will the EU survive as an institution? Who knows? Who cares? Probably not. Endemic instability and social unrest in EU countries with few regimes surviving very long. This process has clearly already begun. The exposure of NATO for what it is, a pointless and malign anachronism. The replacement of western predatory rent seeking financial parasitism with a more rational and productive economic model in the east. Time will tell, but 24/2/22 will surely rate as a turning point in world history.
Looking ahead ?
It’s unlikely that much more than the DPR will be liberated before the snows fall. That’s Phase 2. Phase 3 (liberation of Odessa) will be prepped by 7.January, but Phase 3 will have to wait until early 2023. This is due to logistics etc.
The implications are that we‘ll see fighting all throughout 2023. One can also expect a NATO attack of some sort in Autumn 2023 or Spring 2024. NATO needs forever to build up, so they can‘t attack for a Long Long Time.
Just my thoughts
What do you mean by denazification? In Germany denazification is the problem as it is used to suppress sovereignty.
In Germany it was fake, the US worked hand in glove with Nazis.
I mean the term literally, as is “getting rid of Nazis and their ideology”.
Besides, neither Germany nor any other EU/NATO country have any sovereignty anyway.
Cheers
Andrei
I mean that any attempt at formulating national interest in behalf of the public or any resistance to NATO objectives is being hysterically hitlerized. Germans are being beaten up constantly with the Nazi club. To be frank: enough is enough. We need nation building and a peace treaty, not more denazification. Who and how do you want to do this?
The fact that the german regim calls everybody that opposes them “nazis” is like when the israeli regim calls their opponents “anti-semites”. This is just using words and labels to shame people into submitting to state propaganda. The same in the Ukraine, where everybody who opposes the regim is called a “Putin-lover” or something like that. (It is a sign of weakness in the “government”.)
This type of propaganda has almost nothing to do with the fact that Nazis are free to torture, kill and persecute people, only because they belong to another group of people that the Nazis hate. Their targets are always people who, if they get to live (and have some influence), will limit the Nazis’ power.
Is that the kind of people you support? Or are you still ignorant of the fact that real, living Nazis not only are free to terrorise innocent people 24/7, but also supported by many “governments” and other powerful players.
Do you really think that stopping them is a less important matter, or that “nation building and peace treaty” is at all possible with the Nazis in power?
Coward warmonger jew blinken (who has never fought in a war), whose grandfather was born in kiev, explains a lot about his hatred for Russians.
The western ‘elite’ are only ‘elite’ in their evilness, allied to their master, lucifer.
There is one big problem with the SMO: nobody, really nobody is scared now by RU military anymore(except nukes, but on this they say they will never use it anyway even after a US first strike).
Even if it is wrong, for them after the Kiev repo, it was a total failure. And their second argument is: if it is so slow it is because RU can not ‘do it faster’, they even say there is no need for so many Nato forces as if RU is not even able to beat kiev in 5 months, we can be sure they will never ever attack us.
The all western narrative, changed after Kiev: butcha false flag, then dozens of billions in money (reaching 100 billions next week as total amount for all countries).
When smo started they were really afraid, never talked about sending so many weapons(except US, but just javelin). Macron and co did not want to send anything at all or purely symbolic, as the war was to be short, kiev taken zelensky ousted).Only sanctions were forseen.
True that 200/300k ukies will be or deads or WIA for life or a long time.
But other will follow, nazi bandera will reemerge quickly of course they have millions of fanatics living in the diaspora.
Same for the sanctions they doubled down(6 times in the EU).
And even if Russia take bigger cities, the problem will remain the same: failed ukropistan will become the biggest Nato base in the World, with plenty of missiles and probably nukes.
Even worse even bigger frontier to manage with Finland in Nato.
They will put trillions in help if needed to show the people of liberated oblasts, that their life in
EU ukraine is far better, not a problem, just printing money or 100 years credit(never repaid like all state credits).
It is not my opinion but as I live in the middle of ‘shapistan’, this is what I’m hearing on a daily basis around me from otanocrats or eurocrats.
Most of the “Normal”, westeners Not even know, that there is a russian self-imposed commitment of Not using nuclear weapons first
THEY DO NOT KNOW.!!! .. even people with a high scool degree and a Doctor of ingeneering and construction of generators at Siemens DO NOT KNOW THIS FACT!
Saker proposes a most optimistic vision of the current operations yet a true Communist must look at the reality of the battlefield with a cold mind.
First, UKR counterattacks – it is true that majority of those either never got to the starting line or ended in disasters, at least one UKR operation succeeded – the push on the axis Nikolaiev-Cherson, which managed to stabilise UKR frontlines at Chersonese outskirts to this day.
Second, air superiority. If RU obviously has it over FEBA, the strategic depth is sadly lacking, ie NATO trucks and trains roll on the axis Lwov-Vinnitsa-Zhytomir-Dniepr nearly completely unimpeded.
Even at the frontlines, RU forces choose to not use mass strategic bomber formations to carpet bomb the fortifications.Also, the operational depth is NOT under control, as UKR uses Western-donated mobile artillery with enough success to be worrying (HIMARS attacks on ammo dumps).
Third, the Gostomel operation. I believe V.V. Putin was badly advised and ordered a political decapitation attempt centered on an airmobile assault and subsequent control of the Gostomel airfield.
The brave paratroopers gave their all as expected, but the rest -chaotic OMON columns getting ambushed, armored push from the North, general state of disorder- precluded that variant.
Also, the fascist regime was much more resilient than planned which should’ve not been a surprise to anyone – German soldiers kept fighting and dying from Warsaw to Berlin, long after any hope of victory faded.
Now, I do not know what are V.V.Putins long term plans for this operation.It might be that its a strategic move with following objectives:
1.Destroy UKR human reserves until NATO has to send their own troops, then defeat them in detail on familiar battlefield.
2.Empty NATO arsenals and destroy them around Donetsk.
3.Study the most modern Western armaments/procedures/tactics/EWAR in combat environment.
4.Force NATO to send its aviation and destroy it over Donetsk frontlines.
5.Cripple NATO puppet states economies, eventually force vast swathes of de-dollarisation.
As I said, I dont know but it seems that the liberation of former Ukrainian SSR territories from fascists is not an immediate purpose, but rather a very long-term one.
Excellent summary of the SMO, and it’s clear Andrei didn’t miss anything important. He stated something I hadn’t really considered, namely that Russia building strong ties with the sovereign nations is the most important project on Russia’s full plate.
One item to dispute: Does it matter what happens to or with the Neocons ? Andrei says it does not, but I fear it very much matters.
Neocons are the worst snakes, ready to hide their identity for years if need be, and then re-emerge to strike. No one, I’m sure not even Andrei, believes the Neocons will fade away without a huge fight, but possibly a covert fight. We need to start thinking about how to shape the battle against the Neocons so that victory is baked in. Two details about Neocons are important, especially the first one. We can only hope they are not suicidal and won’t take the nuclear option. We should not take that for granted. Second, there is little evidence if any, that the Neocons do not care about the Jews in Israel. It’s worth noting that the Zionists themselves have the power to disarm the Neocon snakes for 10-30 years, but I’m not suggesting we should pay the Zionists’ price for disarming them.
Welcome back Andrei, and what a comeback you just wrote.
In the past 5 months I have read numerous analyses of excellent writers and commentators, and yet you have surprised me with some new insights.
You asked for suggestions for new topics. Yes, one ponders my mind.
I wonder what kind of *security situation* would be acceptable for the RF.
Especially, given that:
-written agreements with the west are not worth the paper and ink it’s written upon.
-any negotiation with the west could be on the RF conditions only for quite some time from now.
-with all due respect, ‘denazification’, could that be specified further, I still have some associations with a miss contest whereby the contestant says she wants ‘peace on earth’.
-Isn’t the whole area-reshuffling to say it bluntly, dominated largely by changing chances of first time strikes?
One could suggest, that Ukraine would be split up in a Novorossiya part (quite likely including the coastal line with Odessa -a well known NATO rat line- up to Transnistria), a West Ukraine absorbed by Poland – already underway-, and *some intermediate*.
The first parts are imagineable, what can we imagine of that intermediate part? It puzzles me, imagining a backyard fence dispute with a neighbour who is aggressive, a drug addict and a serial convict. Could this intermediate part end up in kind of a demilitarized zone like in Korea? What would be the odds for the RF, constantly having masses of troops there, having a border with entities that are yearning for guerilla war?
What set of conditions, practically speaking, could be acceptable for the RF? Let’s keep it out of Old Testamentical revenge stuff, I don’t think the RF will turn its back on the west, but the door will not open on any condition of the west.
I’m quite aware that you are not some kind of band with request songs. I’m not asking for a song, but suggesting an idea that might pop up in a new composition. And I’m pretty convinced that such a composition is in excellent hands with you.
(Or my ideas are a littlebit naive, you can tell me – I’m a grown up bloke :-))
Stay safe and healthy, cheers, Rob
Andrei, thanks for your overview of the SMO. As with regards to president Putin’s stature being void of any bluffing I would welcome a deeper analysis from your side. I remember Vladimir Vladimirovich adressing questions from journalists on his personal faith a few years ago. Although good-humoured and full of quips, again one was struck by the fact that Vladimir Putin never ever did pose or frolick, and indeed did not hide that he is a man of Orthodox faith. How does his faith relate to the fact that he is never bluffing?
Since the SMO has started one may notice a truly huge change in the way how the people of the Russian Federation appreciate the Chechen leader Ramzan Kadirov and his Chechen compatriots. But although Ramzan Kadirov and president Putin associate well together, one cannot say that Kadirov is never bluffing… Perhaps Kadirov can afford to play the role of the jester from time to time and Vladimir Putin cannot. Anyhow, Ramzan Kadirov clearly does not belong to the evil clown world of ‘shaitan’ Johnson & ‘shaitan’ Elensky.
this comment has been flagged as of little/no value (possibly troll) by the saker
“The West”: a euphemism for International jewry
Not true, the Anglos and other non-Jews also play a MAJOR role in controlling the West.
Don’t make it about race or ethnicity, it is not.
Cheers
Andrei
If Finland’s history can teach us something that’s the fact that Finnish leaders always tend at the critical moment bet the bad doped horse and lost all money. It is in their genes. The NATO membersip and I can already hear bells ringing for NATO funeral.
It is wonderful to have Andrei back with us, and his “rest” has obviously allowed a lot of thinking, reflecting, collecting thoughts and ideas,deciding and finally, a long screed for all of us to take in and continue our fight for fairness in the world.
US is captured and their is NO LEADERSHIP. Stupid liberals watching TV think they need to back Ukraine . All American patriots back Russia still. I wrote about the invasion 2014 in Ukraine and watched Russia , building of BRICS. Trump had wanted no wars and finally a leader to extend friendship Dusdia well deserved . He has more of the human terrain on his side than even being reported . They will never publish or report that Americans voted more for him than any sitting president . He stays neutral in Speech tight now on public stage . But in No end et if we can manage to take our house abs senate back from DNC and neocons , get out of EU deals as Trump was trying to do . I think Russia snd US still have a chance . Everyone running things tight now is a PSYOP . Trump is rebuilding behind the scenes , painfully watching them shut off our fuel and follow dangerous EU WEF . I hope we survive the mess , we all knew it was bad but their coup just as any others in last history ( Russia knows well ) was desperation at this unipolar world plan . If Americans can gain traction in Nov .. it’s over for neocons in US . US must leave NATO. We were used long enough by the East India British trading Co .. since 1871 we have been trying to disassemble the de facto US /DC gov. It is not our sovereign government . Putin planned long, and well . He will have many allies . It made us sick. All the neocon anti Russia propaganda when WW were allies so long , we had leaders that took it too lightly . Most Americans that know any better would pick Russia over EU in a second . Godspeed . ALL THIS WOKE crap they tried in early 1900s run by zionists , who really are the parasitic bunch we have been writing about for years . Ppl are finally awakening , in US .. large numbers . NATO was never a good idea to begin with . After Russia fought with allies , losing so many of its ppl holding back these European Nazis .. now free under the Russian Federation , NATO is a NAZI run outfit and EU can have it as far as anyone in US , maybe UK is concerned . We need to ally against the WEF going very fast right now bc they lost four years under America rebuilding ( after Obama ) under Trump . Let’s hope US breaks free enough once again to kick these neocons out .. resume her posture as was designed before we became European slaves again . Thank you for writing once again. We in the independent media , and others, in US were sickened by the fact that Russia extended hand of friendship under the neocons only to be shunned until the ppl voted in a leader that cared about that friendship , then they stole an election toon yo stop him . He is someone that does not back down. And I. Relieve Formed some good alliances before he left office . US is just a captured state right now. They are cutting off food to fuel until we break free as well we’re under Trump, from EU policies and treaties . Godspeed once again . Go Russia . We are depending on Putin to stand up to them and he has delivered . We have nothing to do with the puppet government in DC and we do not recognize them as legitimate . Maybe 25-30 % of mind controlled leftists . Putin knows . He has inferred to the problem .. DNC etc.
I am in North Texas now.
The swamp is destorying the value of my retirement savings.
Is there housing available in Orlino?
Is the fishing good.
Leningrad is lovely. Orlino is very small, but I bet the fishing is great.
“Who can retire in Russia?
Although anybody can retire in Russia, the country does not have an open policy for foreigners. Russia does not offer retirement visas. Obtaining a Russian residential permit can take years – even if you have a Russian spouse. As such, start planning your retirement in Russia up to a year or more in advance.
If you have been working in Russia and contributing to the state social security pension, the right to retire in Russia becomes less complex.” So says Expatica…
Generally ( very generally ) if you can sell your Texas house plus have enough savings to buy a house and some little rental property in the country you wish to retire in – you are home free.
Countries are rightfully wary of having some old couple immigrant and 3 years later become a welfare burden.
On the other hand, any old couple with independent income in the country ( real estate ) is seen as safe bet.
Brilliant summing up, covering all (?) relevant aspects. Thank you.
Andrei, so good to have you back! Really missed you!
Please do recap for us the historical role of the Vatican “crusaders” in seeding and cultivating Russophobia in Ukraine and elsewhere. What do you think of the Vatican’s role in the present turmoil and and their future in the restructuring of the multipolar world?
Thanks
In remembrance of the 80th anniversary of the Battle of Stalingrad, I’m doing a film festival. One of the movies that I’m watching is the 1959 West German film “Stalingrad: Hunde, wollt ihr ewig leben?” (Dogs, Do You Want to Live Forever). It’s ironic that 80 years ago today the Red Army was battling the Nazis in the Donbass as they drove toward Stalingrad. Another irony is that in the movie, the Nazis are portrayed as benevolent overlords and the Ukrainians as willing collaborators. Much like how the Western media portrays the NATO neo-Nazis and their Ukrainian stooges. The more things (propaganda) change the more they remain the same.
P.S. The other movies in the film festival include: “Stalingrad” the German 2003 documentary TV mini-series, “The Battle of Stalingrad” the 1949 epic Soviet re-enactment, “Stalingrad” (1993 German film directed by Joseph Vilsmaier), “Enemy at the Gates”(2001) and the Russian 2013 “Stalingrad.”
I never exaggerate or give praise when its not due but this blistering comeback is a superb tour-de-force. Health permitting,a future book would be tremendous.
“Dmitri Medvedev now changing his tune 180 degrees and rebranding himself as an ultra-patriot.”
Is it possible he was just playing (as in acting) a pro-western politician, while keeping his patriotic views for a more private group of friends?
There is a political gossip that is well known in Russia about a total, unshakable loyalty of Medvedev to Putin. Could this be the case? I’m just speculating here, but looking for other views on this subject.
The analysis is top notch and I’m very thankful for the directness and honesty of thinking.
“I don’t think that the neocons give a damn about Israel or the Israeli people either, by the way.”
Does not the fact that many neocons in the upper echelons of the US government have 2 passports, one of them being Israeli, and their reported “tribalism”, have any influence on their behavior?
Israeli’s treat fellow Tribesmen living overseas like dirt.
No easing yourself back slowly, eh Mr Andrei, boom, straight in for the jugular. Masterfully scripted, a joy to read.
Right now Comrade WEST are off balance, scratching around for air like punch drunk retired boxers. Time to stick the boot right in, divide & conquer is key here, reversing their playbook upon them.
America attempted the 3 card monte yesterday, clandestinely slipping in a boatload of HIMAR & Other Missiles to Odessa, navigating their way easily through the remaining mines while all eyes, so they thought, were on the outward bound Grain Ships. No, sorry, you’ll have to get out of bed earlier if you want to catch us sleeping. BOOM!
Easing of Sanctions by the EU, Russian reserves partially released. Squeeze those Western Fiat Supply Lines till they bleed.
this comment has been flagged as of little/no value (possibly troll) by the saker
While there is no reason on the whole doubt Sakers (that is military expert) analysis, and I believe Russia will in due time reach all its goals in Ukraine, I would like to be a little contrarian (risking that I am completely wrong). I have to emphasise that my preliminary views may have been shaped too much by Martyanov, who has done gigantic job in presenting us pinnacles of Russian military technology. However, his views of Ukraine army were far too dismissive whereas he has always avoided discussion of weak points of Russian army (not that West would have learned something new here, opponents probably have few real secrets).
There are certain things in article I just cannnot completely “square” with course of events this far:
– it may be that Russia is using 10 % of its military capability from the teoretical whole, but thing is – it is in fact using much larger share of professsional contract forces that are in fact maybe only ones really “usable” in serious conflict? How would reserve fight in case of even partial mobilization?
– however we want to paint it, Avdiivka is a disgrace for Russians. It is not very large area and Ukrainian artillery shooting from there has killed so much Donbass civilians in Gorlovka, Donetsk…(…), where families of fighters live too, that Russian civilian lives might even be saved overall, even if Avdiivka was actually razed to the ground. If Russians really do not care about Western propaganda, they should not fear massacre allegations. Again, we are talking about five months effort and about army that is supposed to be able to take on whole NATO in conventional war in Russian vicinity. And Avdiivka still not taken? Fortified yes, but so was Maginot line….
– air force superiority could be stronger- as it is, heavy Tupolyev bombers do not even dare to venture over frontline, not to speak of Western Ukraine, and are attacking from great distance with precise guided rockets. Good, but in this way, if you cannot use heavy FAB bombs, damage to strong objects like bridges and tunnels will be only temporary. Also, in this way Russia in fact could not (even if it wanted) change Ukraine into Mosul (save for nuclear option)
– how on Earth can all this Western weaponry and territorial “meat” for soldier rotation be still logistically to some extent quite succesfully transported to Ukrainian positions in Donbass? I mean, even respected Russian analysts like Rybar have problem understanding that. They have long ago published lists of railway substations, bridges. I do know that a lot is being destroyed.
– there are in fact not many succesful “boilers”. Yes, Azov was not able to leave Mariupol. That is big important success, Elsewhere however, Liman, Svyatogorsk, Lisichansk, Severodonetsk, now probably Soledar and Seversk, Ukrainians in very nimble way time after time manage to pull out their elite forces from partially encircled towns. Majority of causalties then fall on territorial defense unfortunates.
– NATO C4ISR capabilities have, according to Russian analysts, already been used for planning of attacks on Russian border areas (day to day occurence) and also battleships, including Moskva, and also Snake Island. I just do not believe, that if they are used to attack Crimea, “decision making centers” or even AWACS planes will be targeted. It seems that Russian are very wary of this step. It looks that, if only for fact of projecting “crazy badass” image, West might have some sort of escalation dominance here. If township in say Arizona was targeted in any conflict, we know what would have swiftly ensued.
– Martyanov has exaggerated capabilities of Russian electronic warfare and reconnaissance. Azov actually had high speed internet up until very end for spreading propaganda, and Ukrainians seem to have very precise counter artillery fire (and are still being smothered for just not having enough artillery). On the other had, unfortunately Russian volunteers have to collect money for drones to give to army.
– yes, Ukros have not had one bigger level succesful counterattack. But Afghanis have not won even one minor battle with US army, and yet they have won the war in only real sense: they have accomplished political ends of the war.
– MAD probably still applies?If so, then power of Russians to turn whole West into glass, is not all that important, because West has that same credible threat against Russia.
I respect Russian military technological genius. But as for modern systems as S-400 and S-500 we all know that in case of big war, they would play small role. Capabilities of Russian industry to quickly ramp up their production is probably limited. So all those thousands of Tomahawks may not be just for joke….
yes, you are right regarding andrei martyanov, who i nevertheless have enormous respect for and follow his “sermons”. he did indeed imply, before the start, that the ukrainians wouldn’t know what hit them…”anything seen, dies….and Russia sees all”…but them as is known,,,,few military plans survive first contact.
the ukrainians have put up a great fight…..better than any western army could have….and it is sad to see obviously brave men, some very old, going to their deaths on behalf of scum like Zelenski and his chums. Or on behalf of cynically manipulating US & Brit politicians.
please do not refer to Martyanov’s videos or articles as “sermons” again.
thank you
Andrei
And your expertise in military matters comes from what kind of education?
You really believe you know better than Martyanov?
Your credentials must be impressive.
Please share them with us!
Andrei
No Doubt , Martyanov is levels above any public figure on Military topics. But he is careful to separate facts from assertions and clearly states his assumptions. What an insult to call his briefings “sermons”
Those same questions have come back to my mind again and again during the last months. I am still looking around for answers but I see only speculation on those questions. I don’t have doubts about the capabilities of the Russian military, of course, but I would like to understand what is really going on.
Good to hear from you again…
this comment has been flagged as of little/no value (possibly troll) by the saker
It is false
Your quote
“Putin was patient enough to realize that in the early years of the confrontation with the West, Russia was in no condition to openly defy the West, let alone fight it militarily. This is why he stopped the LDNR forces from moving any further westwards in 2014-2015 even though the Ukrainian military was in disarray. While he knew that during the time the Ukrainians were in a panic and disorganized, he also knew that Russia could not take on the consolidated West. So between 2014 and 2018 Russia made a gigantic effort to develop the kind of capabilities needed to be able to take on all of NATO and win. By the time of the Russian ultimatum to the West last Fall, Russia was finally ready.”
Lavrov asked putin to let British mercenaries surrounded in enclave of Debaltsov in Feb 2015 when Donbass regiments were in supremacy.
Lavrov and putin betrayed unknowingly or knowingly but betray they did. Or their judgement was wrong and they have done dozens of such blunders in last 8 years alone. All because of inferiority complex from anglo pirates
Not true. Russia by trying to solve the situation in Donbas with the Minsk 1&2 agreements, has shown the value and worth of EUs signature and words. Nill. Which was an important fact to establish for the world to see.
It gave time to adjust and prepare Russia for sanctions gradually, the sanctions imposed lately have been ready to go for some time. If they were introduced back in 2014/15 … they would have hit harder.
Also, it was obvious that the game was on … and the move in 2015 with assistance to Syria would be more difficult with an ongoing Ukrainian war. What would have emerged out of a broken Syrian state would be 100’000s of jihadiis for the Russian underbelly + Chinas Xinjang province + Central Eurasia.
The moves being made now by dumping the west, and creating a new world to the south in the Eurasian space, would not have been possible … as the region would have been in flames.
Sabemos que para gerar convulsão social seja ela favorável a si ou contra outro país soberano, o Ocidente habilmente utiliza-se da ingerência ou manipulação midiática, inclusive bloqueando a influência recíproca advinda dessas nações expurgadas da “ordem” (lógica) estabelecida pelas pretensas democracias liberais ocidentais controladas pelos EUA/OTAN, a exemplo do banimento das transmissões efetivadas pelos canais midiáticos da Federação da Rússia, sobretudo para o continente europeu na sua quase totalidade. Por essa forma, tanto a Rússia quanto a China e o Irã investindo massivamente nesse artíficio, ganhariam bastante terreno na tão propalada “guerra hífrida”, portanto, sendo um potencial a mais a ser creditado em suas invectivas visando contrapor-se ao “modus operandi” cunhado e, exponencialmente, aplicado e colocado em prática pelos estadunidenses, e seus “vassalos” na contemporaneidade.
We know that to generate social upheaval, whether favorable to itself or against another sovereign country, the West skillfully uses media interference or manipulation, including blocking the reciprocal influence arising from these nations purged of the ‘order’ (logic) established by the so-called liberal democracies. Western countries controlled by the USA/NATO, such as the banning of transmissions carried out by the media channels of the Russian Federation, especially for the European continent in almost its entirety. In this way, both Russia, China and Iran, investing massively in this artifice, would gain a lot of ground in the so-called ‘hybrid war’, therefore, being an additional potential to be credited in their invectives aimed at opposing the ‘modus operandi ‘ coined and, exponentially, applied and put into practice by the Americans, and their ‘vassals’ in contemporary times.
“And I won’t even mention the absolute lack of utility of the likes of Guaido, Tikhanovskaia or the “friends of Syria” gang ”
Why don’t the US and their ass kissers just declare Navalny the proper President of Russia and deal exclusively with him to solve their Russia problem?
The west has been on top for so long that they are scared to death of losing that position. They will do everything to maintain it. Initially, they will sacrifice the ukrops, then the EU, then their other vassals, like australia, NZ, Japan. If that doesn’t work they may launch a nuclear war.
A great read….but I must be getting old…I had to do it in three bites….exausted after reading a third of it. Great to have you back, b.
I have to admit that my expectations were pretty high for the Saker’s first day back but I wasn’t ready for a summary like this! This piece exceeded any expectations. If there is a better summary of the SMO anywhere on the net please post it below.
I suppose I have a lot of questions relating to President Putin’s recent visit to Iran. It seems that a small resource war is about to begin off the coast of Lebanon and this has the potential to become an even greater regional conflict. What are the prospects for a negotiated settlement to be conducted quickly? Is there a strong possibility of Iranian intervention? What about Israel and Saudi Arabia?
At this time such a resource war has the potential to all but shut down fossil fuel production in the middle of an already growing energy crisis! This would threaten the economy of the world and would greatly damage the military capabilities of the Empire particularly. Potentially very serious business.
To understand the economic interests involved in the “Agreement for Grain”:
– what are the largest Russian grain and fertilizer producing and exporting companies?
– are these companies public or private?
– if private, who are their owners (or majority shareholders)?
The future of Europe looks bleak. It is now burdened by the sanctions it imposed itself and the resulting spike in commodity prices. The EU wanders in a state of bewilderment.
The self-destruction of the West, a puzzle defying any single causal explanation, continues. Instances of policy pursued with apparent indifference to anything resembling rigorous reflection have become so extreme that a former British military leader (and former head of NATO forces in Afghanistan), Lord Richards, has declared that the the relationship between strategy and any synchronization of goals was hopelessly broken in the West.
The West is pursuing a “let’s see how it goes” kind of “strategy” or, in other words, it has no real strategy at all, Richards argues.
Zugzwang* where the programmed self-destruction of the West
By Alastair Crooke in Africa Asia, July 21, 2022
The ordinary people in America are not Russia’s enemy.
We have no quarrel with the Russia people.
There is however a small percentage (33) who believes everything the MSM spouts for they have lost the ability and desire to reason for themselves.
The quicker Russia turns up the pain dial the sooner all this will begin to change.
Nothing speaks louder than an empty stomach.
Also you wanna get the average fat dull Americans attention make them uncomfortable.
..on your last sentence ….that’s include include empty food shelves for their dogs & cats…..
“two key aspects of their worldview: a) tribalism and b) drive”
I would say god chosenism, and unlimited greed.
Sunset states’ average citizen is so dumbed down, that it will be too late until he, eventually, will grasp reality before demise.
Has anyone seen or heard reports of statements or interviews with those people who were fired/
removed from their positions in the upper echelons of Ukrainian intelligence?
Thanks for the excellent article.
That nuclear mushroom cloud in the picture that accompanies this article unfortunately may be appropriate, as the United States is openly admitting that it is preparing to fight Russia and China in great power war:
“The Army is getting leaders ready for a war unlike any the US has ever seen. The service is moving away from the past and training for future operations against China and Russia.”
TOE As Military Bible.
http://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2022/07/toe-as-military-bible.html?m=0
Good to see you back Andrei. You have covered all the important points of this conflict so far. The things I see on the radar thanks mostly to “Military Summary” and my own views are,
1. The role of the new Ukrainian brigades in the Kherson and Kharkiv areas.
2. Combined saturation missile attacks by the AFU against the Russian logistic assets in areas with weak Russian air defenses.
3. What kind of event will make Russia turn up the pain dial up and start removing Western assets and decision centers related to the war in Ukraine?
4. How much the West will have to suffer before it reaches the bottom of the barrel and start opening her mind?
You depict the Western elites as mostly suffering from some kind of mental illness like obsessive compulsive or manic-depressive disorder. Maybe some bouts of schizophrenia. I had to deal with someone who suffered of those disorders and I acted as a facilitator of support groups for the friends and family and the ill themselves. There are ways to handle the communication under those circumstances. And one of them is to let the person reach the bottom while staying around to provide help when the person becomes capable of dialogue again. That worked in many cases. Maybe that’s the kind of medecine Putin has to use on the West. The resources of the West are huge though and it is not clear the West will feel the pain. So my question is will the West suffer enough pain to open her mind? Or is it just the Ukrainians who will bravely die for their mad masters?
On your point 4 I would say : The west is already standing in the bottom of a barrel on it’s way off Niagara Falls. The west is living in an abstract caste that will not survive the impact with reality. There will be pain alright.
The focus of Russia vs. West seems microscopic in relation to the entirety of the world. Currently the “experiment” of “globalism” is falling on its face. ALL of the Nations have partaken of the fruit of the idealism and delusion that there can be “global” collective cooperation & still maintain individual sovereignty of nation states. This “ideal” is an oxymoron from the gate. The “West” could fall into the sea tomorrow and all the rest of the world would still be spending the next generation or two on how to undo the damage to their nation states that globalism inflicted. Then there are the Nation states that want to pick and choose the globalism that suits them… should there be a UN? what about WHO? And WTO? Its as if there wasn’t this horrible hegemonic US these global institutions would be corruption free and all those little satellite nations would have an actual voice in the world. Relegating “the West” to the dust bin of history is of course the start of an excellent course correction for the world, but it’s hardly a huge win considering none of the bulwark global institutions, including the financial one, appear to be doing a thing but realignment. And the “West” isn’t the only source of corrupt to the core individuals. So, sure, you got rid of the “bully” on the playground, but the playground is still there.
What has God to do with all of this? What are His plans in these regards? What are his reactions in these actions? In what of it are we in fact seeing His Hand?
Related Q: should not a national defense council, a military staff, and a diplomatic and economic staff include a competent theologian? And I mean theologian, not “ethics advisor.”
Nebuchadnezzar, the king of Babylon, (Book of Daniel) learned that God sets up kingdoms and tears them down again. He appoints whomsoever He wants to rule over those kingdoms.
When nations become evil, He gives them time to repent, as Genesis 15:16 indicates. When their cup of iniquity becomes full, meaning that He will no longer tolerate their evil, He brings judgment against them, as Jerusalem learned throughout their history and in Matt 23-24 and the Book of Revelation.
When that happens, our only recourse is to repent and pray to God for mercy.
No one can know specifically what plans God may have regarding any country. He sets them up and tears them down as it pleases Him. He normally gives them time to repent when they become evil. Eventually He brings judgment against them if they refuse.
Why should there be a “theologian” working with any military. A theologian has no spiritual answers or advice that can’t be found in the Bible.
Please stay on topic. Mod.
I only posted the second message because my first was delayed for so long that I thought the moderators had rejected it. So, I tried rewording it in order to be accepted. Now I see that my first message has also now been accepted.
@Rev.Graham.
In Homer’s great epic of war — its inevitability, its heroism, its universality and its futility — most military councils included a competent theologician. Putin’s reply to Obama’s and Biden’s much-vaunted First Strike option certainly has theological implications: “So, we shall be sending them to Hell 2 minutes after they start sending us to Heaven”.
Thank you for this article. One of the best, if not the best, I have ever read on this site.
It is good to find one’s own unconscious and unarticulated thoughts, call them beliefs, clearly written out for them.
God bless Russia – the Russian people and their leaders. Above all, God bless the Russian Armed Forces and their Leader. We are all with the Russian people now.
Hello Saker !
great that you are back !!!
Pepe Casus Belli Slovakia
Dear Andrei,
Very glad to see you back at the helm. Some of your aides at the Vineyard have been doing an admirable job in your absence. Hope you are feeling better both physically and spiritiually. Have missed your articles.
What would i like to see addressed, below the line moderated. I know some of the mods are working and doing the best they can but it has just become another ‘internet hangout’ for some commentators.The blog seems to have exploded in readership and commentary. I’ve pretty much stopped visiting BTL in my Vineyard vistis. Once I could visit BTL and get intelligent and well argued positions on subject matter being addressed. Now the dross and conspiracy theorists have driven me from that area of the website. It’s a shame because I miss the well reasoned arguemnts that would address a myriad of points made in an article in deeper depth.
I in no way want to disparage all the new visitors, some are on dofferent parts of their own journey and like many of us are working our way through the world. But some seem to just be here to argue for arguments sake with no actual facts to back up their points of view. If it could at least be looked at to see if I am out of order or it is a new evolution it would be appreciated.
Again, welcome back and thank you for a wonderful overview assessment.
Kind regards
@ Saker
Welcome back, Mr. Saker.
It looks the months of rest have been fruitful, and you’re back in good form.
Good to have your input again, a point of reference against which we measure our own, meager analysis. Your write up reads like tectonic plates in motion, an insight into a recomposition of the planet’s socioeconomic, political and military landscape, and a reversion of its poles of power at the same time.
Issue is, there is basically nothing else to say after reading such a tour de force.
Five months compressed into a (long) page, explained, analyzed, broke down into intelligible blocks, with their meaning projected into the future. Well, we needed that. Now we are all reading from the same page, and all the difference is in nuances.
This is the reason why they tried with all their might to shut down the Saker’s site, as if they could block the sun with one finger.
Praemonitus, praemunitus
Lone Wolf
https://ria.ru/20220724/lavrov-1804653720.html
Russia will help Ukrainians get rid of the anti-people regime, Lavrov said
Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said at a meeting with permanent representatives of the member countries of the League of Arab States (LAS).
This is the way to go!
Welcome back, dear Andrei, we’ve missed you
Saker,
I would like you to write about mercenary groups in general but especially the Wagner Group. Who pays them, how do they decide where to go; how involved are they with their governments? In ukraine for example, who is paying them to work there? You would think the Russian govt. would not- it would just send more of its own troops if needed instead of paying private armies to assist. So what is the whole picture? I have asked about this on several Telegram channels and no one seems to know.
https://radiosputnik.ria.ru/20220720/polk-1803906445.html
A little bit of research shows the fundamental difference to Halliburton/Academi/Blackwater and the RF policy :
22:06 20.07.2022 (Updated: 22:10 20.07.2022) 3220
Kadyrov spoke about the formation of a regiment ready to perform any task
I do not see what the article you linked to has to do with my questions.
Contrariwise to sundry doom-Sayers here :
The West Is Not Doomed to Self-Destruction
https://larouchepub.com/pr/2022/20220724_lead-editorial.html
Even if Col. MacGregor calls the military shots honestly, this is not basically a military problem, rather a physical economic one.
The necessary action has been known since at least the 2008 crash – do it now!
please don’t quote Larouchian nonsense here (or be banned)
thank you
Andrei
Glad you are back.
Boy , boy , what article , you summed up the whole international issues at hand , thanks many times over and I hope like every one else hope that you are correct about every thing you wrote about .
The question is what the hell is going to happen to the Israeli settlers in Palestine , they will not last in west Asia for three months without the great Satin the USA support .
Both nations are criminal enterprises killing , stealing and butchering every one disagrees with them , have no respect for the international laws except the one suit their purpose and agenda .
I can go on and on , but I am not optimistic about every thing you said , the USA troops still setting in Syria , stealing and blundering the country resources which badly needed for the nation , not to mention Turkish support for the nasty radical Islamist terrorists with their bases and observation post while their sultan Erdogan promise otherwise .
It seems to me , it is hopeless case .
Thanks , keep doing what your doing , I love the article .
Welcome back, Andrei. I’m very happy you are with us again. Thank you very much for insightful and detailed analysis. I couldn’t agree more with what you wrote.
All the best!
People here and all over were very impatient with Russia not winning sooner, they thought time was not on their side. But it obviously time is on Russia’s side, look at how the west is imploding more every day. I am American and still have hope we can possibly recover from our foreign policy disasters. I have seen our military degraded and our nations’ reputation sunk due to lunatics running our government. I hope for a better future with sound diplomacy and sane leadership.
Welcome back, good to see you in high spirit.
In the long run Russia will win the hearts and minds of all people who would count. From the beginning Russia was winning the propaganda war. Some people are slower than others, but in the end all people will see. The crusaders are using and abusing their own people worse than enemies. As a matter of fact, the way I see it, they are trying to subdue their enemies, by choice, so they can use and abuse them like their own people, enslave them, rob their countries resources, then put them in debt and leave them no choice but to work 24/7 to make ends meet. And of course, tell them the sky is the limit. Live the American dream.
Good write up, but… there is one aspect missing in the discussion of the West: The globalist economic oligarchs, bankers and Davos Cabal. This is not a political global schism, it is an economic schism between globalists and nationalists.
The NeoCons in the US, and their vassals in the EU, are in place to serve their economic masters, this is Fascism v2.0, not the other way around, that was Fascism v1.0.
If the globalist economically collapse, the American Wall Street class and Deep State will be short in cash, and if finally the States in the US wake up and we either go into a quick civil war ( it’d be quick because it’d be a fast coup d’etat) or a constitutional convention (slower, but constitutional coup d’etat) the neocons will be completely out.
IMHO, this is the best thing for the World. The USA is indeed exceptional in its Constitution and it is the true third rail of our politics: the fascists dare not shake it up too much because they know that State Governors and County Sheriffs wield a LOT of power. And there are a lot of ex military, state national guards, local cops and millions of people with a closet full of fine firearms all over the place. The Deep State is aware of this…
In many ways, Putin is doing the people of the US and the EU a huge favor, hopefully getting rid of that layer of arrogant SOBs.
I really hope Trump was a harbinger of the future for the US. Main Street over Wall Street. A president of of the US, not the World. We are rich with resources, WTH do we care about Ukraine? Heck, we could be friends with Putin…. China? Now, that’s an interesting problem though. They steal and cheat, not the Russians though.
What do you think, André, of the récents déclarations of Viktor Orban, this “insane shameless racist ” who do not want to play the multi ethnic “democratic ” game of the West. If you please. Thank U as a French for your Remarkable epitaph for France, the future “roquet” (small barkin dog) of europe, and under control of England.
A great piece from M. K. Bhadrakumar on the “Grain Agreement” and its repercussions on Battlefield Ukraine.
I reproduce here only the last section.
https://www.indianpunchline.com/ukraine-grain-deal-is-a-feel-good-event-but-road-to-peace-is-long-and-winding/
JULY 24, 2022 BY M. K. BHADRAKUMAR
Ukraine grain deal is a feel-good event. But road to peace is long and winding
“…‘Why Biden Failed’
On the other hand, the geopolitical reality is that Russia’s diplomatic space to manoeuvre is also expanding and possibly outstripping Washington. For instance, in the critical West Asian theatre which has historically been important for the western Cold War strategy against the former Soviet Union, President Biden tried to convince the nine Arab leaders he met in Jeddah last week that a reviving Cold War is coming to the Middle East and to sign up on the side of the US against Russia (and China), but “found no takers for his message, even when he added Iran to the equation,” to quote David Ottaway at the Wilson Center.
The public silence of those Arab leaders when it came to Biden’s talk of a Cold War or even the US and Israeli confrontation with Iran over its accelerating nuclear program was deafening. Again, on Tuesday, the ringing endorsement of Russia’s war in Ukraine by Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei during his meeting with President Putin went further than the Kremlin’s all other allies in backing Moscow in the Ukraine crisis, signalling a much stronger alliance between Moscow and Tehran in the making.
Meanwhile, in a dramatic display of the reach of Russia’s influence in West Asia, upon his return from Tehran, Putin had a phone conversation with the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud “with an emphasis on the expansion of mutually beneficial trade and economic ties” where they “examined developments on the global oil market”; “focused on the importance of further coordination within OPEC+”; and were “pleased to note that the OPEC+ member countries consistently fulfil their obligations in order to maintain the necessary balance and stability in the global energy market.”
Again, on Thursday, even as the Istanbul agreements on grain exports were signed, Putin signed a decree on the holding of the second Russia-Africa Summit and other events of the Russia-Africa format in Russia in 2023, while on Sunday, Lavrov set out on an Africa tour to follow up, starting with Egypt. No doubt, Russia’s grain supply chains with African countries across the continent being restored now, Lavrov will top up Moscow’s dynamic agenda with African continent with newer areas of cooperation with special attention to the situation around Ukraine.
The contrast between the America’s and Russia’s creativity on the diplomatic plane couldn’t be sharper. Biden promised a foreign policy in the interests of America’s middle class. What happened to it? Hasn’t the Biden presidency lost the plot? The sooner the Ukraine peace talks begin, the better chance for the western card in the long and difficult negotiations ahead.
Wisdom lies in seizing the “feel good” over the grain deal to open negotiations with Russia. Or else, 2022 might be the last year Ukraine would have exported its grain through its own ports on the Black Sea. The non-western world that has its priorities worked out on the development agenda and is struggling with recession and the pandemic has no interest in bandwagoning with the US’ new Cold War against Russia and China.
Surely, there must be some other way to regain America’s leadership role globally? Washington is not realising how much it is in the US interests too to rethink the Ukraine strategy and Russia relations.
What Biden’s recent tours abroad underscore is that “the damage done by decades of misguided US geopolitics cannot be undone,” while on the other hand, “the economic fallout from the war in Ukraine will push weakened institutions of governance to the point of collapse… (and) the pillars of the US’s own liberal regime are under attack.” These are excerpts from a searing piece titled Why Biden Failed authored by Adam Tooze, the well-known British historian who is a professor at Columbia University and Director of the European Institute.
Prof. Tooze wrote last week: “Meanwhile, the economic fallout from the war in Ukraine will push weakened institutions of governance to the point of collapse. And as Washington seeks to cajole “democracies against autocracies” abroad, the pillars of the US’s own liberal regime are under attack. The overturning of Roe vs Wade enables the reactionary denial of reproductive rights across red-state America.
“The (US) Supreme Court is also set on demolishing the legal bases for key environmental regulations… If Biden’s plan was to stabilise US democracy with progressive politics –- an updated New Deal for the 21st century –- the conclusion now is that his presidency has failed.”
————————————————————————————
Lone Wolf
Welcome back Andrei, so good to have you back and excellent over view that is spot on.
There is one issue in this post I would like you to further explain.
Great column, Andrei, thank you for it!
Great News!
Uglegorsk TPP (Thermal Power Plant) is having a concert by the Wagner Orchestra, which was forced to suppress noisy firing points from the UkroWerhmacht and Ukronazis to be able to play.
They are now just finalizing details for the upcoming concert.
A new cauldron is coming up with a “finger” growing up north from Novoluhansk, and the taking up north of Uglegorsk TPP. The troops getting kicked out of Uglegorsk TPP can run to Artemovsk before the cauldron slams shut, but not for long, Artemovsk is now next in line.
Allied forces could not take on fortified Artemovsk without taking Uglegorsk TPP, an open flank southeast. The advance is now even along the line Pokrovske/Klynove/Uglegorsk, E40 in total control of Allied forces. Pokrovske is still in dispute, but with the Wagner Orchestra back in concert tours after a well deserved rest, it will not take long for them to play there.
The Seversk/Soledar/Artemovsk line is cracking, bit by bit.
The Donbass Arc is taking shape.
Let’s hope for the best…
https://readovka.news/news/105575
Assault detachments of the Wagner Group liberated the Uglegorsk thermal power plant
Resistance of AFU and National battalion firing points is suppressed
By the evening of July 24, assault detachments of the Wagner Group, in cooperation with units of the People’s Militia of the LDNR, liberated the Uglegorskaya CHPP. The enemy defense node is being cleared.
The resistance of the AFU and National Battalion firing points has been suppressed.
*the news is being updated
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Lone Wolf
I believe the Russians have just about finished their Special Operations…but not the economic war.
Russia isn’t going to announce to the U.S “we have finished now!” No.
The Russians are going to allow the U.S to believe it is achieving something by the continued supply of arms to Ukraine…thereby slowly draining those arms from other theatres.
As long as Russia controls intelligence and the battle ground then they can continue to degrade American arms and treasury with accurate munitions.
The quagmire the U.S wanted may be the one they are stuck in materially and financially for a long time at the same time as training and hardening a Russian military with live fire.
“The quagmire the U.S wanted may be the one they are stuck in materially and financially for a long time at the same time as training and hardening a Russian military with live fire.”
I agree. Supossedly Ukraine needs to be sponsored by $9 billion pr. month just for the state structure to function. Ukraine is bancrupt and every passing day there is less and less collateral to steal.
To me it looks like the Russians are holding back, this is a fight they are winning … so why hurry ? The magnitude of the western defeat is growing every day.
Tour de force, Andrei. Glad to see you back. Take care!
Andrei,
Really appreciate this “bird’s eye view” of the geopol situation between the West and Russia , including China and India.
That the neocons have absolutely no considération for their own people – 9/11 shows it- indicates how satanic they are. Going to hell means absolutely nothing for them; it’s the people that believe in God they are after. A complete inversion of our belief in God and His Kingdom.
Keep us posted as you have being doing, even during your absence which we understand fully. Take care of your health also. We’re at war man!
I guess I can forget about a trip to Russia considéring my âge.
With the number of casualties being reported in different media that the Ukrainian Army is loosing hundreds of men a day , there seems to be little evidence of where their wounded are being treated .
I would have expected to see pictures or video of MASH type facility’s by now .
Perhaps they did not plan for wounded .
They just leave their wounded behind, dying. And the wounded can only hope that the Russians come and save them before they die.
Good to have you back.
Nice article Andrei, welcome back. :)
Andrei, I have a question. Why do you view Israel as being controlled by the USA, when most conservatives view Israel as controlling the USA?
I guess it is a moot point, since the decisions (and actions) are made by people, not countries, but don’t you think it is the will of Israel that is most directly reflected by US foreign policy, rather than the will of any particular group in America?
It was fake news of the pandemic that caused people in the US to increasingly doubt the mainstream media, as one can clearly observe in the chart shown above. The same (even worse) applies to approval of elected representatives in Washington, as well as most of the other established institutions in the US. Once confidence has been lost, it cannot easily be regained. The power elite have sold out and no longer care about public approval as long as they are getting their election war chests and perks, thus more generally we see the demise of ‘democracy’ and justice in the West.
Welcome back. Superb overview of events.
Only thing I think you need to focus on more is the impact on the neocons of having their tribe also control the media which is tied to the CIA.
They are used to never being challenged in the US and operate in an information bubble. So no matter how stupid and delusional their views, the press runs cover for them. They are also used to working with their tribe members in the media, groups like ADL and financial firms to silence all dissent.
However the rest of the world isn’t in that same bubble and their private, public censorship partnership increasingly can’t control other countries.
The poster child for this might be Blinken bragging that every time he meets with the Saudis, he talks about anal sex. That plays well with the woke western media but likely just makes him come across as a weirdo to sovereign, non white nations. Imagine if you were in a business negotiation and the representative of one side said, “before we get started I want to talk about anal sex.” Say, what?
Why are orbital weapons platforms ignored as a game changer that may turn up the pain dial on Russia? I believe the U.S. may have one or two……….hundred!
Welcome Home, Andrei! Glad you are better.
Tell us what you mean by this cryptic statement, if you would. What is the foundation? Tulsi Gabbard spoke out against the DNC disenfranchising Sanders voters in spring 2016, resigned from the DNC in protest, ran for POTUS in the primaries for 2020, and completely destroyed Kamala harris in the September 2019 debate, Kamala-the-Chosen of the DNC, who was bulletproof until then. Congresswoman Gabbard, still a Major in the Army Reserve, who served 2 combat tours in a combat medical unit in the mideast, then announced that she would not run again for congress, so as to focus upon her presidential campaign (knowing she would be “primaried”, I presume.).
What is the basis of your scorn for the brave and honorable warrior-sister, Sir?
She is pro ‘common sense gun control’. IOW un-electable, and in all likelihood a WEF stooge (although obviously she denies it) just like Dan Crenshaw.
Americans don’t want LAWYERS telling them what guns they can or can’t own, and they certainly don’t want lawyers lecturing them on ‘common sense’!
Not all in the West are as described here. I am frankly surprised at the near total support of the Anti-Russia position in DC however.
At the end of the day, it will come down to one of the 2 potentially civilization ending battles going on here in the US right now. And that is the censorship question (the war on energy being the other). It is one thing for the legacy media to all sing from the Dark Powers (CIA, State, NSA, Rest of the secutiry state) playbook. It is quite stunning to see NO rational thought pretty much anywhere in TV or Print here.
But it is another when the Social Media channels ALSO are censoring everything. That leaves precious few places for real information. If people had even an inkling here of what is going on, they would not approve. There is some of that anyway. Despite the near total information shaping here, a large number of people sense something disastrously wrong, even if they can’t put their finger on it.
It will take a change in government for anything to happen, and as said, even then, most of the incoming, though not all, will be aligned with the Dark Powers. Will there be enough pushback to make a change? I would like to think so. Unfortunately in this case our change of government opportunities come on a predictable and set schedule. And for the Executive Branch, that does not occur for another 2.5 years. Legislative Branch is unlikely to do anything as you will have Noecon Deep State stooges in charge with McConnell and McCarthy.
Dear Saker
Great to have you back and thank you for an excellent analysis.
Let’s see how this circus evolves. It is so shameful how Europe is behaving.
In the meantime, thank God for Russia and Putin and his team. Amazing time to be alive.