In this forum, few of us (Kim, I, and few others) raised the issue of how reliable the proposed Turkish partnership (post-coup attempt) will be for Eurasian resistance movement !
That question is still to be resolved, now that Turkey has created a ‘safe zone’ in North Syria under pretension of fighting Kurdish militia …
From the linked article…”The “US-Backed” July Coup Was Likely Staged”
You are a thinker straight bat. Erdogan is not part of Eurasia. He is not a US pawn. An independent operator. The US would prefer a malleable puppet.
Since the coup, or since Turkey moved into Syria, the US are following Erdogan like groupies after a rock star. The US now want to jump on Erdogans wagon and take over the controls.
He is right on exactly… and the Israelis will be very tempted in the next 6 weeks by hubris and neocon desperation to repeat 2006 on some level as the US neocons summon their assets into action.
Aleppo takes on major significance in their calculations–I hope RT does a Crosstalk on it soon– and so a Israeli-neocon distraction in the Golan or Lebanon but not so much in Gaza although one of their notorious “mow the grass” campaigns every two years or so is due soon.
It will put Trump on the line also….will he “support” Israel? the sacred ally of the US who can do no wrong? If Trump does not demand a national debate on the issue–another war in the mid-East– and a public vote ( no closed doors) in Congress he will be as much history as Blarney Sanders. It is a trap and they know it, but does he?
With Turkey and the USA working together – things don’t look good for Syria.
Mark Sleboda piece is posted at Moon of Alsbama and it is a damning piece about Russia role in Syria.
He states that he believes Russia will sacrifice Syria and leave. As they will not confront Turkey and NATO for WW3.
Beautiful. Thanks. A useful perspective on Syria – not simply a bridge between the players but a crucial player in its own right, with a character as indestructible as diamond. Syria made the missiles that conquered Israel – yes, that would be hard for those craven tyrants to forgive.
And this is still the war of 2006. Fantastic clarity on Daesh, the US, the Gulf states, the whole picture.
Hi James,
Andrew Korybko over at Katehon has a completely different take regarding the latest events.
According to him, the Kurds desire for a federal state is now far more dangerous to the national unity of Syria, than any rebel group. US has been backing up the Kurds and only at the last minute switched sides. According to him, Turkey was used by Russia- Iran to put an end to Kurdistan in Syria.
In your calculation you a hold consider that the Iranian revolution happaned 30 years ago, and they have moved on from that, and have gone back to being a regional power. They seem more interested in shaping their immediate environment than in spreading revolution these days. That’s why they can work with Russia. That’s why the Chinese will talk to them.
The thing is, the Iranians are no longer the crazies. They are quite stable, and are very smart. It’s the KSA and some others that are acting crazy these days.
Hizbollah? Did you know they have a Christian brigade?
Mainstream Shia are Iran and Hezbollah, while Alawites are a Shia sect. Hamas are Sunni palestinians. Radical Sunni is Erdogan and his political movement inside Turkey where secular Turks loath him, plus Saudi Arabia and its extreme barbarian Wahabbi/Takfiri creed, and which is supported by the western political establishment. Get your facts straight.
I think all those expecting Russia to be the new self appointed world police in a white hat as opposed to the self appointed corrupt US world police will be disappointed.
Erdogan is an independent actor. At the moment the US have jumped off the Kurdish wagon hoping to jump on Erdogans wagon and take control.
US warplanes helping the Turkish invasion? What have they hit? What have they bombed? Nothing in any media.
The Syrian government cannot take back control of Idlib and eastern Syria without first cleaning out all remaining inhabitants as well as the fighter otherwise they will simply be occupying hostile territory with on going guerrilla warfare and terrorist attacks.
Erdogan is the only one that can take control of the various islamic terrorists/militants operating in Syria
A defacto partitioning of Syria? Not a US partitioning into US controlled statelets, but a middle east break up of empires Sykes Picot borders?
Neither the Syrian islamists nor the Syrian government want Syria’s current borders to be changed, but this looks like it is heading towards current islamist controlled areas to be controlled by Turkey while still remaining part of Syria in name at least.
I find this very interesting, because Nasrallah – who I view as the smartest guy in the Middle East – precisely describes what I’ve been saying all along – that the Syria war is about taking out Hizballah and then starting a war with Iran.
And yes, this stems entirely from the Israeli defeat in the 2006 July War. Let me recap my position which I posted here many moons ago:
The reason why Israel never attacked Iran (with the intent of dragging a compliant US into the war to do the real heavy lifting) is why the Syrian crisis exists.
Back in 2006 Israel was being pushed by Dick Cheney to attack Iran. He got Israel another $30 billion in foreign aid as a bribe to do so.
However, Israel’s strategists were aware that an attack on Iran could bring in Hizballah in Lebanon with their – at the time – 15,000 rockets and missiles. It could also conceivably bring in Syria with its missiles. While neither was certain, no strategist could ignore the possibility. The effect of both Hizballah and Syria coming into the war would be that Israel’s citizens would be
forced to live in bomb shelters for a good part of every day during the war. This would cause economic dislocations and possibly a bad outcome for the ruling party in the next elections.
So Israel in 2006 decided to take out Hizballah. As we all know, they failed miserably due to lack of commitment of ground troops and the extensive preparations Hizballah had made for such an attack. The reason for lack of ground troops was that Israel wanted a “cheap” war – exactly the same reason they attacked Hizballah – they wanted a “cheap” war with Iran.
Subsequently Hizballah, aided by Iran, built up its missile arsenal until it is now allegedly over 100,000 rockets and longer range missiles that allegedly can hit any part of Israel.
In addition, the 2007 Iran National Intelligence Estimate undercut Bush’s desire to attack Iran.
At the time, Colonel Pat Lang, a retired military expert on the Middle East, pointed out that the only way Israel could possibly successfully attack Hizballah would be through the Bekaa Valley, as this areas is Hizballah’s “defenses in depth.”
However, this would require Israeli forces crossing Syrian territory to make a flanking attack on the Bekaa Valley, rather than going through the heavily defended southern Lebanon. That would require Israeli forces to engage the Syrian military directly, probably resulting in a “two-front” war which is never a good idea, especially if you want a “cheap” military victory.
That’s where things stayed until the Libya crisis. At that point, someone in Israel and/or the US got the bright idea that if a civil war could be started in Syria, with the intent of dethroning Assad, then the US and NATO (and perhaps Israel and Turkey) could engage in an air campaign to destroy Syria’s missiles and degrade its military’s ability to engage Israel in an attack on Hizballah. This would allow Israel a fairly cheap corridor to attack Hizballah while simultaneously removing Syria as an effective actor in an Iran war.
And that’s why the Syria crisis exists. Unfortunately for the plan, Assad’s forces have been more effective than expected in keeping the West’s forces – Al Qaida and ISIS – at bay. In addition, attempts to justify a US/NATO attack on Syria have failed. First they had the insurgents fire at Turkey and Turkey firing back at Syria forces in order to provoke a Syria/Turkey war. That failed
because Assad did not take the bait. Then they tried the same trick with Israel which also failed. Then came the “chemical weapons” false flag – which brought Obama to within 24 hours of attacking Syria. That failed when Russia’s Putin convinced Assad to get rid of his chemical weapons. (Although the US has repeatedly complained about “chlorine barrel bombs” and the like continuously since then.)
The proof that the US wants to attack Syria is that in every one of three UN Resolution drafts promoted by the US there was Chapter 7 language which could be used to authorize such an attack. Each Resolution was vetoed by Russia and China who saw how the same language used in the Libya crisis could be used to justify a war with Syria.
The stalemate in Syria is why there has been no Iran war. The rise of ISIS has been an attempt to break that stalemate.
The story isn’t over despite the Iran deal. Should Syria fall to Al Qaeda and ISIS, you can count on Israel immediately attacking Lebanon again. And after that, the US administration – whoever it may be, Democrat or Republican – will green light an Israeli attack on Iran. And the US will join that war.
And then we will have another decade-long war in the Middle East which will consume Lebanon, Syria, Iran at a cost of millions dead, thousands of US troops dead, and a cost that will be at least four times the cost of the Iraq-Afghanistan war – profits for the military-industrial complex.
Nasrallah in this conversation outlines this entire process, although he doesn’t delve into the military/strategic aspects as I do.
The important thing to realize is that regardless of what Obama might say or do vis-a-vis ISIS, the end goal has not and CANNOT change – the degradation of Syria’s military capability, followed by the degradation of Hizballah’s military capability, followed by a war with Iran. Israel absolutely MUST follow this goal to achieve their long-range goals of fracturing the Middle East countries opposed to them – and the US military-industrial complex and the oil companies also MUST follow this goal if they want to make the same windfall profits they’ve been making since the Iraq War.
So this will remain the goal and all parties involved will continue to pursue it until it is achieved – or until it is definitely rendered impossible. And the ONLY party capable of rendering it impossible is Russia.
Unfortunately I don’t think Putin “gets” this, which is why he has proceeded far too cautiously in his intervention in Syria. He needs to up the ante and achieve a quick, decisive victory against ISIS and AlQaeda BEFORE Hillary Clinton can come in and try to impose a “no-fly” zone or boots on the ground in Syria. By doing so he can stabilize Syria and prevent a confrontation with a Clinton administration over Syria with its even greater attendant risks of armed conflict with the US. He has four or five months in which he can resolve the situation in Russia’s favor. If he waits, he will lose.
I notice you approve of Nasrallah because he, – says the same as you do, if I understand, is that correct?
I wonder if you would mind giving your readers some of your “provenance”, your authority and background. I’m assuming you are a military tactition of some experience, have been responsible for actual “boots on the ground” manoeuvres, and the lives of thousands??
In addition, I wondering what other information you have access to. What Intel, classified material and so forth do you have access to would you mind saying?.
Otherwise I find this “Unfortunately I don’t think Putin “gets” this, which is why he has proceeded far too cautiously in his intervention in Syria” to be unbelievably arrogant – to the point where I am actually lost for words.
Putin doesn’t “get it” – but you do? President Putin has shown us he is what? – Stupid?. But of course, because as we all know, Russians are basically stupid whereas Anglo White men, especially of UK and US stock are the best you can find – exceptional in fac,t this probably is the case. He, after all, doesn’t seem to think like you do.
I dont know whether you are trying to sow the seeds of doubt, of despair, of a lack of faith in a leader with 20 yrs provenance of intelligence and long term strategy or what. Because that is what those who would bring down a country do.
Or do you not “get this”?
You might consider AM’s observations in this piece and contemplate the possibilities, including that the Russians even now have to consider who and what Erdogan really is and what real risk he poses for Russian interests.
“But of course, because as we all know, Russians are basically stupid whereas Anglo White men, especially of UK and US stock are the best you can find – exceptional in fac,t this probably is the case.”
But they are not nearly so exceptional as the loyal zionist Jew, especially those God sent to the internet to inform the rest of us ignorant souls.
Then again, perhaps he really does know more than Putin…as well as these guys recently spotted over Yellowstone, who most certainly do:
UFO Fleet Swarms Over a Super-Volcano Believed to be an ‘Alien Base’ (VIDEO)
It has been clear for some time that Turkey has been working with the Iraqi Kurds to get them onside. When Turkish troops were accused of entering Iraq illegally between December 2015 and January 2016, it was said that Barzani, President of the Iraqi Kurdistan region, gave them refuge in Northern Iraq. Turkey has also long sponsored the flow of black market oil through its own territory, with Barzani himself being one of the main beneficiaries of this process, despite being Kurdish himself.
The Financial Times has reported that sales of oil from Iraqi Kurdistan and Northern Iraq have averaged 450,000 barrels a day since May of last year, raking in some $1.5 billion in revenue from traders in a period of two months alone, according to an article in the Al Monitor on August 1, 2015.
Such proceeds are more than enough to pay civil servants’ and Peshmerga fighters’ salaries. Turkey has also helped to make up any shortfalls, via hefty cash handouts to the tune of over $1 billion.
Barzani theoretically represents the enemy, as Turkey’s Kurds can easily be supplied with personnel and weapons from there. However Turkish military success against its domestic Kurds seems to have persuaded both sides that their ambitions are dovetailing. If they work together, Barzani can have his Kurdish state and Erdogan can resolve his “Kurdish problem.” A compliant Kurdish state with international support would seem as attractive a new home for the Turkish Kurds as Israel is meant to be for global Jewry, or so it is hoped.
. . .
The problem will come when it [Turkey] gains too much, and rejoices in it. Turkey is being used by the US, just as the Syrian Kurds have been so far. If Turkey tries to claim too much of the pie in the exaltation of victory, it will find itself shut out like Italian Prime Minister Orlando was at the end of the First World War: it will only be allowed to profit if suitably grateful, as much a client as the new Kurdish state, but expected to be more self-reliant when trouble comes.
Turkey may forget it has been maneuvered into helping create this new Kurdish state. It is hoping that the Kurds will also forget this, and take Turkish assistance at face value. It appears that history may write that Russia and Syria were set up by Turkey in collaboration with the Kurds from Northern Iraq. Now Barzani and Erdogan get what they want. It is strange, and too bad we were not able to connect all the dots weeks ago, as what is now transpiring in the region. There was confusion among experts in Moscow and the region when the announcement came that Turkey intervened in Syria.
It would appear that Turkey has gone “braindead” in this situation. Are they “really” so foolish as to think that if there is a Kurdish state formed in that region. That in time it will not claim much of Eastern Turkey as well. Have they really not seen the maps the US put out showing Eastern Turkey as part of a new Kurdish state. When your “friends and allies” deliberately plot the dismemberment of your country. Then you need to get “new” friends and allies,and drop the other ones.I can only conclude that Turkey has joined the US in insanity.Unless Russia wants the same fate,they need to stop thinking of Turkey as a “potential” supporter. It just “ain’t happening” under Erdogan .Now that he “showed” the US that color revolutions won’t unseat him (at least for now) he is back to being their loyal “ally”. His bread is buttered with NATO and the US. He is too foolish to see their ideas for Turkey (or thinks he’s smart enough to stop them).The old saying “a bird in the hand…” is the way he seems to see it. He gets money,arms,influence,dealing with NATO and the EU.While Russia and China are an “unknown” for him. Certainly he’ll lie to them…er… I mean,talk to them.But he is the “West’s boy” for now.
You know what, maybe the coup in Turkey was fake. Yes, the USA sponsored the coup but they never intended to kill him. So, they stage the most obvious coup in history and spare no effort in denying their involvement. All the while, their puppet Erdogan can get rid of his enemies and get rid of the smart Turks in the military.
Does that make sense? Is it possible to fool Putin like that? To fake it in a way that even the Kremlin is surprised? Because Erdogan does not behave like I would if someone had actually tried to kill me.
Very good comment. A lot of good time girls commenting on alternative media articles that cheer when they think he kicked a goal and spit on him when they perceive that he has lost ground.
With the Turkish invasion of Syria most amateur analysts are working on the presumption that Erdogan is an erratic madman. He is anything but.
A comment here I just posted over at Mof A….
A lot of analysis round and about based on the false assumption that Erdogan is a delusional eratic madman.
He seems to be anything but. Ruthless, ambitious, nobodies bitch, a political survivor so far.
What’s his vision he is aiming towards? Look to his support base to see where Erdogan is going.
US has no leverage on Erdogan. He can bring out the people to prevent a US backed military coup, so no chance of a colour revolution there.
Erdogan has total leverage over the US as Turkey is essential to NATO.
Erdogan and Russia? Russian policy can affect the Turkish economy so Russia has some leverage over Erdogan. Erdogan can take control of and keep under control the various terrorist organisation and militias that infest Syria so some wheeling and dealing and horse trading happening there.
A lot of good time girls floating around different comment sections that only want to back a winner and think now think Putin is a loser.
Putin ani’t the self appointed world police. He’s a pragmatic geo-politician doing the possible.
What has been constantly served to the “enlightened” audience these last two-three years is that Russia has through good diplomacy prevented the US (obomber) from atacking Syria via a false flag “red line” chemical use. Ergo, the extrapolation (trolling?) “Putin does’nt get it”.
The US did attack (irrespective of it being directly or through its proxy (master?) Israeli ship) by initially launching 2 cruise missiles from a submarine. What shocked the AZ empire was that the Russians shot down the inital attack.
This meant that the AZists crossed the Russian redline (i.e. “Putin” gets it).
Also, what is more worrying is that they had the technology to bring them down.
Russian diplomacy was just the way out at that moment.
So the AZinsts are faced with the dilema, to attack Syria, Iran, Hezbollah, etc. being unsure whether they have the upper hand (technologically, militarily).
“Putin” does get it.
I am very much afraid that at the end they will close their eyes and say “what the heck, lets go on”.
Yes, good to remind us of this Russian intervention.
I recall the face of Obama when he babbled to the public why he was not going to attack Syria despite his red line being crossed. Every inch of him transpired that any further military attack against Syria might burn his ass. Rightfully so.
Agree with everything in your long analysis, starting with Nasr’Allah being the keenest political and military mind in the M.E up to your final para. But I do not agree it is up to Russia to clean house – the locals must do that: Syria, Hezb’Allah, Iraq & Iran must pull together to build an Arch of Stability from the Med to Iran’s border with Afghanistan. Then the other pieces of the Eurasian puzzle – Russia, Turkey and China – will fall into place. Militarily the USA has always been a paper tiger; and if Killery wins, it will be a paper tiger ridden by a near-death old woman.
It is very unfortunate that Richard Steve Hanks has come on this site too with all his know-it-all strategic hullabaloo through which we forced him to leave such relevant site like Going To Tehran run by the America’s former NSAs the Leveretts. Let him continue as he will push himself into a fix like in the past until his real motive is revealed.
It is very unfortunate that Richard Steve Hanks has come on this site too with all his know-it-all strategic hullabaloo through which we forced him to leave such relevant site like Going To Tehran run by the America’s former NSAs the Leveretts. Let him continue as he will push himself into a fix like in the past until his real motive is revealed.
I put forth a completely logical analysis based on military experts like Pat Lang and political experts like Nasrallah – not to mention common sense and logic – and I get attacked by a pack of idiots who have nothing better to do than impugn my motives. The same morons who forced me to leave GoingToTehran site because there was zero comprehension of logic and an infantile need to bait people.
Of course, these idiots have no motives of their own, right? They are simply defending Putin’s honor here – as if he needs these morons to do that. As if he needs a bunch of – as the Internet saying goes – 16-year-old kids living in their parents’ basement – or the adult equivalent – to defend his strategic vision.
The bottom line is: Putin has done well to forestall the no-fly zone once by intervening in Syria, as well as preventing Obama’s war in 2013 by getting Assad to dump his chemical weapons. All I’m asking is that he FINISH THE JOB BEFORE Hillary Clinton gets in and starts World War III over Syria (or Ukraine, another place where he needs to FINISH THE JOB.)
Caution has its place – but not if it puts you in a position to lose.
Isreal has now got herself in to a lose-lose situation and the rats that have been supporting her have abandoned Israel to its inevitable fate…he who lives by the sword dies by the sword.
Prime Minister May contacted Putin and asked to parlez just after Brexit. In London you will find offices for the Muslim Brothered and just about every other Islamic bunch of terrorists that there is.
May wishes to trade with Putin, not just economically, but politically as well, and she has lots of influence to trade with.
Obama has finally chickened out, as all bullies do when faced by strength, despite Clinton’s henchman in east Syria threatening to shoot down Syrian or Russian planes threatening his illegal US special forces embedded with the Kurdish terrorists.
The writing is on the wall and neither Obama nor May need to put on their spectacles to read it. ‘Russia, Syria, Hezbollah, (most of) Iraq and Iran now also backed by China are an irresistable force too tough to be frightened by the USA.’
Israel is on her own now. Oddball Erdogan will erratically wander around bashing various nutters. Israel will not control or order around a disillusioned Turkey. The game is up.
Israel is on her own and even the Wicked Witch of the West in her wonky wobbly malevolence will not change anything…even with her Clintonesque fraud and bluster.
AUG28
Reports have emerged that the Saudi regime have brought 400 mercenaries from Aden and Hadhramaut in Yemen’s south to fight against Houthi forces who are currently advancing in Saudi Arabia’s southern Najran province.
It was reported that the mercenary fighters were brought by fast boat to immediately engage Houthi forces who have reached the outskirts of Najran city and the strategic Najran dam.
So much news, events, threats & such so in looking up the recent Iran threat to S.A. to “GTFO of Yemen, or else”, which was only a week ago, I found this one 6 weeks ago surprisingly very apropos to what is going on in Kurdistan right now!
http://ekurd.net/iran-warn-saudi-iraqi-kurdistan-2016-07-18
Speaking to Iranian state television, the former presidential candidate and ex-chief of elite troops warned if Erbil failed to contain the movements of armed Iranian Kurdish groups in the Kurdistan Region, Tehran would “carry out military actions” against the groups and “the training base” backed by the Saudi Arabia in the area.
“The Saudi consulate in Erbil has set up a training base there and established two offices near our borders,” Rezaei told Iranian state television on a Saturday evening program and warned if officials in the Kurdistan Region did not “take necessary measures”, the Islamic Republic would “soon carry out [military] annihilation actions against them [Iranian Kurdish groups] and Mr. Barzani would be the one to blame,” Rezaei said, referring to Kurdistan Region President Masoud Barzani.
Also, that bizarre event just days ago where the MEK aka MKO 155 were flown out of Camp Liberty Iraq under (ahem) faked passports to Europe of all places (albania) looks like goading Iran on:
Rezaei’s comments came only days after senior Saudi intelligence official Turki al-Faisal attended the annual meeting of the armed Iranian opposition group Mojahedin-e -Khalq in Paris last week, prompting angry remarks from Tehran.
Erdogan is unpredictable rather than erratic, because like Putin because he thinks outside the current politically correct box.
Putin/Russia and Erdogan have different goals. But Erdogan is a player like Putin. There is no trust between Erdogan and Putin. Only leverage and moving chess pieces on the board to gain an advantage.
US? Erdogan gives them diktats.
1. If the Turks attack treacherously and occupy parts of northern Syria then Russia can punish Erdogan heavily.
To understand Turks and Turkish culture you have to realize that (aside from being quite hospitable people if you ever do visit there) they can be quite violent, stubborn and also honour-obsessed.
For a man like Erdogan, who wants to make himself the new Sultan of a new neo-Ottoman state and leader of the world’s 1.6 billion Muslims, who is a Turk in a society where strength is revered to humiliatingly apologize to Putin and then go over on all fours to – wait for it, not even the capital but the 2nd city of Russia – St Petersburg where Putin humiliates him and makes him attend the Greek Byzantine room is a major achievement.
Putin did this WITHOUT attacking a single Turkish military asset inside Turkey (not talking about the various regular Turkish army assets and proxies inside Syria)…POINT?
Putin has huge leverage against Erdogan without having to fire a single bullet.
2. If the Turks do not withdraw from northern Syria later on the various deals agreed with the Turks can be suspended e.g. the nuclear plant that the energy-starved Turks are desperate for the Russians to build, the suspension of Russian tourism etc and many other things.
I am pretty confident Turkey will behave.
3. If Turkey does not withdraw from northern Syria in the future, not now but later on, the Russo-Iranian alliance can always up their support to PKK rebels inside Turkey and get the Turks embroiled in a quagmire in northern Syria by helping the PKK franchise in Syria, the YPG.
In some ways its actually good for the Russians and Iranians that the Turks have moved in to Syria directly as it means they have more leverage over them including helping YPG to target Turkish soldiers and armoury when necessary.
Erdogan has to be careful as his situation is desperate, he survived by the skin of his teeth and the mainly Kemalist army doesn’t really like him and he is in a low-intensity non-violent civil war in Turkey with 100,000 civil servants (0.1 million) losing their jobs.
4. Worst case scenario even if parts of northern Syria were occupied by the Turks temporarily, they contain no industry, no major population centres and are somewhat peripheral.
Golan is occupied by the Israelis but the Syrian state still functioned for decades as the Golan was a peripheral region though Syria has never renounced its sovereignty over it.
Hatay (Antakya) is the same now controlled by Turkey.
Though both Golan and Hatay were occupied by Israel and Turkey for decades the Syrian state functioned and so it can if temporarily some peripheral region of the north-west has a Turkish military presence.
Southern Lebanon was controlled by the Israelis for a decade or so until they were kicked out by Hizbullah.
The main goal is to wipe out the Wahabist rebels in Syria retake major cities and re-establish Syria as a normal functioning unitary state.
The Turks can never annex northern Syria as that would provoke an outcry even from Syria’s fellow Arabs and morally they would look like aggressors and thus it would remove their ability to comment on other similar disputes, not to mention the money it costs to occupy such a place, as well as the aforementioned tensions and divisions within the army (traditional Kemalism believes in a Turkey confined to its current borders, this was a reaction to the pan-Turkist adventurism and expansionism of the Young Turks, CUP etc), as well as the previously mentioned possibility that Turkey’s current Kurdish insurgency in the south-east would then just spill over to northern Syria. In Turkey hundreds of soldiers have died in the past few months.
I believe there is nothing to worry about and the intelligent and prudent Russo-Iranian axis have thought out every move and know the Turks cannot stay in northern Syria and if they do so they will create a mini-Vietnam there as Turkey’s south-east is now.
The evil designs of AngloZionist world order and its IslamoFascist stooges are still unfolding …
http://www.4thmedia.org/2016/08/turkey-invades-northern-syria-truth-of-turkish-coup-revealed/
In this forum, few of us (Kim, I, and few others) raised the issue of how reliable the proposed Turkish partnership (post-coup attempt) will be for Eurasian resistance movement !
That question is still to be resolved, now that Turkey has created a ‘safe zone’ in North Syria under pretension of fighting Kurdish militia …
From the linked article…”The “US-Backed” July Coup Was Likely Staged”
You are a thinker straight bat. Erdogan is not part of Eurasia. He is not a US pawn. An independent operator. The US would prefer a malleable puppet.
Since the coup, or since Turkey moved into Syria, the US are following Erdogan like groupies after a rock star. The US now want to jump on Erdogans wagon and take over the controls.
He is right on exactly… and the Israelis will be very tempted in the next 6 weeks by hubris and neocon desperation to repeat 2006 on some level as the US neocons summon their assets into action.
Aleppo takes on major significance in their calculations–I hope RT does a Crosstalk on it soon– and so a Israeli-neocon distraction in the Golan or Lebanon but not so much in Gaza although one of their notorious “mow the grass” campaigns every two years or so is due soon.
It will put Trump on the line also….will he “support” Israel? the sacred ally of the US who can do no wrong? If Trump does not demand a national debate on the issue–another war in the mid-East– and a public vote ( no closed doors) in Congress he will be as much history as Blarney Sanders. It is a trap and they know it, but does he?
Long live the translators!
Who believes Erdogan?
http://bit.ly/2bsJnqG
With Turkey and the USA working together – things don’t look good for Syria.
Mark Sleboda piece is posted at Moon of Alsbama and it is a damning piece about Russia role in Syria.
He states that he believes Russia will sacrifice Syria and leave. As they will not confront Turkey and NATO for WW3.
It’s not what I want to hear
Russia can’t leave unless it wants to loses everything it took from Persia almost 200 yr ago information Caucuses.
Beautiful. Thanks. A useful perspective on Syria – not simply a bridge between the players but a crucial player in its own right, with a character as indestructible as diamond. Syria made the missiles that conquered Israel – yes, that would be hard for those craven tyrants to forgive.
And this is still the war of 2006. Fantastic clarity on Daesh, the US, the Gulf states, the whole picture.
This was not supposed to appear as a reply to the comment by James lake, it was intended to reference directly the video clip. My mistake.
Hi James,
Andrew Korybko over at Katehon has a completely different take regarding the latest events.
According to him, the Kurds desire for a federal state is now far more dangerous to the national unity of Syria, than any rebel group. US has been backing up the Kurds and only at the last minute switched sides. According to him, Turkey was used by Russia- Iran to put an end to Kurdistan in Syria.
Russia is in a very odd position trying to simultaneously work with:
1) Mainstream Shia (Syrian Alawite)
2) Radical Shia (Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas)
3) Muslim Brotherhood Sunni (Turkey, Saudi Arabia)
4) Judaism (Israel)
At some point they are going to have to chose who to keep and who to dump. The only obvious Keeper is #1 Syria and the base @ Tartus.
I would love to predict further, but I’ve no reliable fact pattern from Putin.
It’s called diplomacy. Something most of the world has forgotten over the last two and a half decades of diktats from the world police.
In your calculation you a hold consider that the Iranian revolution happaned 30 years ago, and they have moved on from that, and have gone back to being a regional power. They seem more interested in shaping their immediate environment than in spreading revolution these days. That’s why they can work with Russia. That’s why the Chinese will talk to them.
The thing is, the Iranians are no longer the crazies. They are quite stable, and are very smart. It’s the KSA and some others that are acting crazy these days.
Hizbollah? Did you know they have a Christian brigade?
Turkey is a wild card.
Why do you call Hezbollah and Iran radical?
Zionists are radical. Nazi’s are radical.
Mainstream Shia are Iran and Hezbollah, while Alawites are a Shia sect. Hamas are Sunni palestinians. Radical Sunni is Erdogan and his political movement inside Turkey where secular Turks loath him, plus Saudi Arabia and its extreme barbarian Wahabbi/Takfiri creed, and which is supported by the western political establishment. Get your facts straight.
Radical Shia, Sunni Brotherhood and Neutral Judaism?
Yeah, right!
I think all those expecting Russia to be the new self appointed world police in a white hat as opposed to the self appointed corrupt US world police will be disappointed.
Erdogan is an independent actor. At the moment the US have jumped off the Kurdish wagon hoping to jump on Erdogans wagon and take control.
US warplanes helping the Turkish invasion? What have they hit? What have they bombed? Nothing in any media.
The Syrian government cannot take back control of Idlib and eastern Syria without first cleaning out all remaining inhabitants as well as the fighter otherwise they will simply be occupying hostile territory with on going guerrilla warfare and terrorist attacks.
Erdogan is the only one that can take control of the various islamic terrorists/militants operating in Syria
A defacto partitioning of Syria? Not a US partitioning into US controlled statelets, but a middle east break up of empires Sykes Picot borders?
Neither the Syrian islamists nor the Syrian government want Syria’s current borders to be changed, but this looks like it is heading towards current islamist controlled areas to be controlled by Turkey while still remaining part of Syria in name at least.
Pat Lang describes the US/Turkey relationship better…
“It does surely seem to be the case that the US is now Erdogan’s bitch.”
http://turcopolier.typepad.com/sic_semper_tyrannis/2016/08/us-politics-and-policy-and-syria.html
I find this very interesting, because Nasrallah – who I view as the smartest guy in the Middle East – precisely describes what I’ve been saying all along – that the Syria war is about taking out Hizballah and then starting a war with Iran.
And yes, this stems entirely from the Israeli defeat in the 2006 July War. Let me recap my position which I posted here many moons ago:
The reason why Israel never attacked Iran (with the intent of dragging a compliant US into the war to do the real heavy lifting) is why the Syrian crisis exists.
Back in 2006 Israel was being pushed by Dick Cheney to attack Iran. He got Israel another $30 billion in foreign aid as a bribe to do so.
However, Israel’s strategists were aware that an attack on Iran could bring in Hizballah in Lebanon with their – at the time – 15,000 rockets and missiles. It could also conceivably bring in Syria with its missiles. While neither was certain, no strategist could ignore the possibility. The effect of both Hizballah and Syria coming into the war would be that Israel’s citizens would be
forced to live in bomb shelters for a good part of every day during the war. This would cause economic dislocations and possibly a bad outcome for the ruling party in the next elections.
So Israel in 2006 decided to take out Hizballah. As we all know, they failed miserably due to lack of commitment of ground troops and the extensive preparations Hizballah had made for such an attack. The reason for lack of ground troops was that Israel wanted a “cheap” war – exactly the same reason they attacked Hizballah – they wanted a “cheap” war with Iran.
Subsequently Hizballah, aided by Iran, built up its missile arsenal until it is now allegedly over 100,000 rockets and longer range missiles that allegedly can hit any part of Israel.
In addition, the 2007 Iran National Intelligence Estimate undercut Bush’s desire to attack Iran.
At the time, Colonel Pat Lang, a retired military expert on the Middle East, pointed out that the only way Israel could possibly successfully attack Hizballah would be through the Bekaa Valley, as this areas is Hizballah’s “defenses in depth.”
However, this would require Israeli forces crossing Syrian territory to make a flanking attack on the Bekaa Valley, rather than going through the heavily defended southern Lebanon. That would require Israeli forces to engage the Syrian military directly, probably resulting in a “two-front” war which is never a good idea, especially if you want a “cheap” military victory.
That’s where things stayed until the Libya crisis. At that point, someone in Israel and/or the US got the bright idea that if a civil war could be started in Syria, with the intent of dethroning Assad, then the US and NATO (and perhaps Israel and Turkey) could engage in an air campaign to destroy Syria’s missiles and degrade its military’s ability to engage Israel in an attack on Hizballah. This would allow Israel a fairly cheap corridor to attack Hizballah while simultaneously removing Syria as an effective actor in an Iran war.
And that’s why the Syria crisis exists. Unfortunately for the plan, Assad’s forces have been more effective than expected in keeping the West’s forces – Al Qaida and ISIS – at bay. In addition, attempts to justify a US/NATO attack on Syria have failed. First they had the insurgents fire at Turkey and Turkey firing back at Syria forces in order to provoke a Syria/Turkey war. That failed
because Assad did not take the bait. Then they tried the same trick with Israel which also failed. Then came the “chemical weapons” false flag – which brought Obama to within 24 hours of attacking Syria. That failed when Russia’s Putin convinced Assad to get rid of his chemical weapons. (Although the US has repeatedly complained about “chlorine barrel bombs” and the like continuously since then.)
The proof that the US wants to attack Syria is that in every one of three UN Resolution drafts promoted by the US there was Chapter 7 language which could be used to authorize such an attack. Each Resolution was vetoed by Russia and China who saw how the same language used in the Libya crisis could be used to justify a war with Syria.
The stalemate in Syria is why there has been no Iran war. The rise of ISIS has been an attempt to break that stalemate.
The story isn’t over despite the Iran deal. Should Syria fall to Al Qaeda and ISIS, you can count on Israel immediately attacking Lebanon again. And after that, the US administration – whoever it may be, Democrat or Republican – will green light an Israeli attack on Iran. And the US will join that war.
And then we will have another decade-long war in the Middle East which will consume Lebanon, Syria, Iran at a cost of millions dead, thousands of US troops dead, and a cost that will be at least four times the cost of the Iraq-Afghanistan war – profits for the military-industrial complex.
Nasrallah in this conversation outlines this entire process, although he doesn’t delve into the military/strategic aspects as I do.
The important thing to realize is that regardless of what Obama might say or do vis-a-vis ISIS, the end goal has not and CANNOT change – the degradation of Syria’s military capability, followed by the degradation of Hizballah’s military capability, followed by a war with Iran. Israel absolutely MUST follow this goal to achieve their long-range goals of fracturing the Middle East countries opposed to them – and the US military-industrial complex and the oil companies also MUST follow this goal if they want to make the same windfall profits they’ve been making since the Iraq War.
So this will remain the goal and all parties involved will continue to pursue it until it is achieved – or until it is definitely rendered impossible. And the ONLY party capable of rendering it impossible is Russia.
Unfortunately I don’t think Putin “gets” this, which is why he has proceeded far too cautiously in his intervention in Syria. He needs to up the ante and achieve a quick, decisive victory against ISIS and AlQaeda BEFORE Hillary Clinton can come in and try to impose a “no-fly” zone or boots on the ground in Syria. By doing so he can stabilize Syria and prevent a confrontation with a Clinton administration over Syria with its even greater attendant risks of armed conflict with the US. He has four or five months in which he can resolve the situation in Russia’s favor. If he waits, he will lose.
I notice you approve of Nasrallah because he, – says the same as you do, if I understand, is that correct?
I wonder if you would mind giving your readers some of your “provenance”, your authority and background. I’m assuming you are a military tactition of some experience, have been responsible for actual “boots on the ground” manoeuvres, and the lives of thousands??
In addition, I wondering what other information you have access to. What Intel, classified material and so forth do you have access to would you mind saying?.
Otherwise I find this “Unfortunately I don’t think Putin “gets” this, which is why he has proceeded far too cautiously in his intervention in Syria” to be unbelievably arrogant – to the point where I am actually lost for words.
Putin doesn’t “get it” – but you do? President Putin has shown us he is what? – Stupid?. But of course, because as we all know, Russians are basically stupid whereas Anglo White men, especially of UK and US stock are the best you can find – exceptional in fac,t this probably is the case. He, after all, doesn’t seem to think like you do.
I dont know whether you are trying to sow the seeds of doubt, of despair, of a lack of faith in a leader with 20 yrs provenance of intelligence and long term strategy or what. Because that is what those who would bring down a country do.
Or do you not “get this”?
Re Putin.
You might consider AM’s observations in this piece and contemplate the possibilities, including that the Russians even now have to consider who and what Erdogan really is and what real risk he poses for Russian interests.
Erdogan Calls Putin as Russia Seethes at Turkey’s Syrian Incursion
http://theduran.com/erdogan-calls-putin-russia-seethes-turkeys-syrian-incursion/
I
“But of course, because as we all know, Russians are basically stupid whereas Anglo White men, especially of UK and US stock are the best you can find – exceptional in fac,t this probably is the case.”
But they are not nearly so exceptional as the loyal zionist Jew, especially those God sent to the internet to inform the rest of us ignorant souls.
Then again, perhaps he really does know more than Putin…as well as these guys recently spotted over Yellowstone, who most certainly do:
UFO Fleet Swarms Over a Super-Volcano Believed to be an ‘Alien Base’ (VIDEO)
http://sputniknews.com/news/20160828/1044720909/yellowstone-volcano-ufo-fleet-aliens.html
;D
:)
Yes, they are a good bunch to hang out with when you need some good intell !!
And here’s another view of this:
Will a Kurdish State be Born Under the “Guise of Fighting ISIL?”
8-28-16
http://journal-neo.org/2016/08/28/will-a-kurdish-state-be-born-under-the-guise-of-fighting-isil/
It has been clear for some time that Turkey has been working with the Iraqi Kurds to get them onside. When Turkish troops were accused of entering Iraq illegally between December 2015 and January 2016, it was said that Barzani, President of the Iraqi Kurdistan region, gave them refuge in Northern Iraq. Turkey has also long sponsored the flow of black market oil through its own territory, with Barzani himself being one of the main beneficiaries of this process, despite being Kurdish himself.
The Financial Times has reported that sales of oil from Iraqi Kurdistan and Northern Iraq have averaged 450,000 barrels a day since May of last year, raking in some $1.5 billion in revenue from traders in a period of two months alone, according to an article in the Al Monitor on August 1, 2015.
Such proceeds are more than enough to pay civil servants’ and Peshmerga fighters’ salaries. Turkey has also helped to make up any shortfalls, via hefty cash handouts to the tune of over $1 billion.
Barzani theoretically represents the enemy, as Turkey’s Kurds can easily be supplied with personnel and weapons from there. However Turkish military success against its domestic Kurds seems to have persuaded both sides that their ambitions are dovetailing. If they work together, Barzani can have his Kurdish state and Erdogan can resolve his “Kurdish problem.” A compliant Kurdish state with international support would seem as attractive a new home for the Turkish Kurds as Israel is meant to be for global Jewry, or so it is hoped.
. . .
The problem will come when it [Turkey] gains too much, and rejoices in it. Turkey is being used by the US, just as the Syrian Kurds have been so far. If Turkey tries to claim too much of the pie in the exaltation of victory, it will find itself shut out like Italian Prime Minister Orlando was at the end of the First World War: it will only be allowed to profit if suitably grateful, as much a client as the new Kurdish state, but expected to be more self-reliant when trouble comes.
Turkey may forget it has been maneuvered into helping create this new Kurdish state. It is hoping that the Kurds will also forget this, and take Turkish assistance at face value. It appears that history may write that Russia and Syria were set up by Turkey in collaboration with the Kurds from Northern Iraq. Now Barzani and Erdogan get what they want. It is strange, and too bad we were not able to connect all the dots weeks ago, as what is now transpiring in the region. There was confusion among experts in Moscow and the region when the announcement came that Turkey intervened in Syria.
It would appear that Turkey has gone “braindead” in this situation. Are they “really” so foolish as to think that if there is a Kurdish state formed in that region. That in time it will not claim much of Eastern Turkey as well. Have they really not seen the maps the US put out showing Eastern Turkey as part of a new Kurdish state. When your “friends and allies” deliberately plot the dismemberment of your country. Then you need to get “new” friends and allies,and drop the other ones.I can only conclude that Turkey has joined the US in insanity.Unless Russia wants the same fate,they need to stop thinking of Turkey as a “potential” supporter. It just “ain’t happening” under Erdogan .Now that he “showed” the US that color revolutions won’t unseat him (at least for now) he is back to being their loyal “ally”. His bread is buttered with NATO and the US. He is too foolish to see their ideas for Turkey (or thinks he’s smart enough to stop them).The old saying “a bird in the hand…” is the way he seems to see it. He gets money,arms,influence,dealing with NATO and the EU.While Russia and China are an “unknown” for him. Certainly he’ll lie to them…er… I mean,talk to them.But he is the “West’s boy” for now.
You know what, maybe the coup in Turkey was fake. Yes, the USA sponsored the coup but they never intended to kill him. So, they stage the most obvious coup in history and spare no effort in denying their involvement. All the while, their puppet Erdogan can get rid of his enemies and get rid of the smart Turks in the military.
Does that make sense? Is it possible to fool Putin like that? To fake it in a way that even the Kremlin is surprised? Because Erdogan does not behave like I would if someone had actually tried to kill me.
Time to look at Erdogan as a player UB1. A smart player in the geo-political field. A worthy sparing partner of Putin.
My money’s still on Putin.
@Isabella
Very good comment. A lot of good time girls commenting on alternative media articles that cheer when they think he kicked a goal and spit on him when they perceive that he has lost ground.
With the Turkish invasion of Syria most amateur analysts are working on the presumption that Erdogan is an erratic madman. He is anything but.
A comment here I just posted over at Mof A….
A lot of analysis round and about based on the false assumption that Erdogan is a delusional eratic madman.
He seems to be anything but. Ruthless, ambitious, nobodies bitch, a political survivor so far.
What’s his vision he is aiming towards? Look to his support base to see where Erdogan is going.
US has no leverage on Erdogan. He can bring out the people to prevent a US backed military coup, so no chance of a colour revolution there.
Erdogan has total leverage over the US as Turkey is essential to NATO.
Erdogan and Russia? Russian policy can affect the Turkish economy so Russia has some leverage over Erdogan. Erdogan can take control of and keep under control the various terrorist organisation and militias that infest Syria so some wheeling and dealing and horse trading happening there.
A lot of good time girls floating around different comment sections that only want to back a winner and think now think Putin is a loser.
Putin ani’t the self appointed world police. He’s a pragmatic geo-politician doing the possible.
Doing it very well too Peter.
Thanks for your comment.
What has been constantly served to the “enlightened” audience these last two-three years is that Russia has through good diplomacy prevented the US (obomber) from atacking Syria via a false flag “red line” chemical use. Ergo, the extrapolation (trolling?) “Putin does’nt get it”.
The US did attack (irrespective of it being directly or through its proxy (master?) Israeli ship) by initially launching 2 cruise missiles from a submarine. What shocked the AZ empire was that the Russians shot down the inital attack.
This meant that the AZists crossed the Russian redline (i.e. “Putin” gets it).
Also, what is more worrying is that they had the technology to bring them down.
Russian diplomacy was just the way out at that moment.
So the AZinsts are faced with the dilema, to attack Syria, Iran, Hezbollah, etc. being unsure whether they have the upper hand (technologically, militarily).
“Putin” does get it.
I am very much afraid that at the end they will close their eyes and say “what the heck, lets go on”.
Perhaps they should heеd Баба Ванга.
Жељко из Крајине
Yes, good to remind us of this Russian intervention.
I recall the face of Obama when he babbled to the public why he was not going to attack Syria despite his red line being crossed. Every inch of him transpired that any further military attack against Syria might burn his ass. Rightfully so.
Agree with everything in your long analysis, starting with Nasr’Allah being the keenest political and military mind in the M.E up to your final para. But I do not agree it is up to Russia to clean house – the locals must do that: Syria, Hezb’Allah, Iraq & Iran must pull together to build an Arch of Stability from the Med to Iran’s border with Afghanistan. Then the other pieces of the Eurasian puzzle – Russia, Turkey and China – will fall into place. Militarily the USA has always been a paper tiger; and if Killery wins, it will be a paper tiger ridden by a near-death old woman.
It is very unfortunate that Richard Steve Hanks has come on this site too with all his know-it-all strategic hullabaloo through which we forced him to leave such relevant site like Going To Tehran run by the America’s former NSAs the Leveretts. Let him continue as he will push himself into a fix like in the past until his real motive is revealed.
It is very unfortunate that Richard Steve Hanks has come on this site too with all his know-it-all strategic hullabaloo through which we forced him to leave such relevant site like Going To Tehran run by the America’s former NSAs the Leveretts. Let him continue as he will push himself into a fix like in the past until his real motive is revealed.
I put forth a completely logical analysis based on military experts like Pat Lang and political experts like Nasrallah – not to mention common sense and logic – and I get attacked by a pack of idiots who have nothing better to do than impugn my motives. The same morons who forced me to leave GoingToTehran site because there was zero comprehension of logic and an infantile need to bait people.
Of course, these idiots have no motives of their own, right? They are simply defending Putin’s honor here – as if he needs these morons to do that. As if he needs a bunch of – as the Internet saying goes – 16-year-old kids living in their parents’ basement – or the adult equivalent – to defend his strategic vision.
The bottom line is: Putin has done well to forestall the no-fly zone once by intervening in Syria, as well as preventing Obama’s war in 2013 by getting Assad to dump his chemical weapons. All I’m asking is that he FINISH THE JOB BEFORE Hillary Clinton gets in and starts World War III over Syria (or Ukraine, another place where he needs to FINISH THE JOB.)
Caution has its place – but not if it puts you in a position to lose.
Isreal has now got herself in to a lose-lose situation and the rats that have been supporting her have abandoned Israel to its inevitable fate…he who lives by the sword dies by the sword.
Prime Minister May contacted Putin and asked to parlez just after Brexit. In London you will find offices for the Muslim Brothered and just about every other Islamic bunch of terrorists that there is.
May wishes to trade with Putin, not just economically, but politically as well, and she has lots of influence to trade with.
Obama has finally chickened out, as all bullies do when faced by strength, despite Clinton’s henchman in east Syria threatening to shoot down Syrian or Russian planes threatening his illegal US special forces embedded with the Kurdish terrorists.
The writing is on the wall and neither Obama nor May need to put on their spectacles to read it. ‘Russia, Syria, Hezbollah, (most of) Iraq and Iran now also backed by China are an irresistable force too tough to be frightened by the USA.’
Israel is on her own now. Oddball Erdogan will erratically wander around bashing various nutters. Israel will not control or order around a disillusioned Turkey. The game is up.
Israel is on her own and even the Wicked Witch of the West in her wonky wobbly malevolence will not change anything…even with her Clintonesque fraud and bluster.
Time’s up Netanyahu!
Desperation setting in for Saud.
AUG28
Reports have emerged that the Saudi regime have brought 400 mercenaries from Aden and Hadhramaut in Yemen’s south to fight against Houthi forces who are currently advancing in Saudi Arabia’s southern Najran province.
It was reported that the mercenary fighters were brought by fast boat to immediately engage Houthi forces who have reached the outskirts of Najran city and the strategic Najran dam.
https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/reports-mercenaries-brought-yemen-fight-houthis-najran-saudi-arabia/
So much news, events, threats & such so in looking up the recent Iran threat to S.A. to “GTFO of Yemen, or else”, which was only a week ago, I found this one 6 weeks ago surprisingly very apropos to what is going on in Kurdistan right now!
http://ekurd.net/iran-warn-saudi-iraqi-kurdistan-2016-07-18
Speaking to Iranian state television, the former presidential candidate and ex-chief of elite troops warned if Erbil failed to contain the movements of armed Iranian Kurdish groups in the Kurdistan Region, Tehran would “carry out military actions” against the groups and “the training base” backed by the Saudi Arabia in the area.
“The Saudi consulate in Erbil has set up a training base there and established two offices near our borders,” Rezaei told Iranian state television on a Saturday evening program and warned if officials in the Kurdistan Region did not “take necessary measures”, the Islamic Republic would “soon carry out [military] annihilation actions against them [Iranian Kurdish groups] and Mr. Barzani would be the one to blame,” Rezaei said, referring to Kurdistan Region President Masoud Barzani.
Also, that bizarre event just days ago where the MEK aka MKO 155 were flown out of Camp Liberty Iraq under (ahem) faked passports to Europe of all places (albania) looks like goading Iran on:
Rezaei’s comments came only days after senior Saudi intelligence official Turki al-Faisal attended the annual meeting of the armed Iranian opposition group Mojahedin-e -Khalq in Paris last week, prompting angry remarks from Tehran.
someone should email this info to Trump –
Erdogan is unpredictable rather than erratic, because like Putin because he thinks outside the current politically correct box.
Putin/Russia and Erdogan have different goals. But Erdogan is a player like Putin. There is no trust between Erdogan and Putin. Only leverage and moving chess pieces on the board to gain an advantage.
US? Erdogan gives them diktats.
This guy is a terrorist, who trying to protect a killer.
Muslim Dude says:
1. If the Turks attack treacherously and occupy parts of northern Syria then Russia can punish Erdogan heavily.
To understand Turks and Turkish culture you have to realize that (aside from being quite hospitable people if you ever do visit there) they can be quite violent, stubborn and also honour-obsessed.
For a man like Erdogan, who wants to make himself the new Sultan of a new neo-Ottoman state and leader of the world’s 1.6 billion Muslims, who is a Turk in a society where strength is revered to humiliatingly apologize to Putin and then go over on all fours to – wait for it, not even the capital but the 2nd city of Russia – St Petersburg where Putin humiliates him and makes him attend the Greek Byzantine room is a major achievement.
Putin did this WITHOUT attacking a single Turkish military asset inside Turkey (not talking about the various regular Turkish army assets and proxies inside Syria)…POINT?
Putin has huge leverage against Erdogan without having to fire a single bullet.
2. If the Turks do not withdraw from northern Syria later on the various deals agreed with the Turks can be suspended e.g. the nuclear plant that the energy-starved Turks are desperate for the Russians to build, the suspension of Russian tourism etc and many other things.
I am pretty confident Turkey will behave.
3. If Turkey does not withdraw from northern Syria in the future, not now but later on, the Russo-Iranian alliance can always up their support to PKK rebels inside Turkey and get the Turks embroiled in a quagmire in northern Syria by helping the PKK franchise in Syria, the YPG.
In some ways its actually good for the Russians and Iranians that the Turks have moved in to Syria directly as it means they have more leverage over them including helping YPG to target Turkish soldiers and armoury when necessary.
Erdogan has to be careful as his situation is desperate, he survived by the skin of his teeth and the mainly Kemalist army doesn’t really like him and he is in a low-intensity non-violent civil war in Turkey with 100,000 civil servants (0.1 million) losing their jobs.
4. Worst case scenario even if parts of northern Syria were occupied by the Turks temporarily, they contain no industry, no major population centres and are somewhat peripheral.
Golan is occupied by the Israelis but the Syrian state still functioned for decades as the Golan was a peripheral region though Syria has never renounced its sovereignty over it.
Hatay (Antakya) is the same now controlled by Turkey.
Though both Golan and Hatay were occupied by Israel and Turkey for decades the Syrian state functioned and so it can if temporarily some peripheral region of the north-west has a Turkish military presence.
Southern Lebanon was controlled by the Israelis for a decade or so until they were kicked out by Hizbullah.
The main goal is to wipe out the Wahabist rebels in Syria retake major cities and re-establish Syria as a normal functioning unitary state.
The Turks can never annex northern Syria as that would provoke an outcry even from Syria’s fellow Arabs and morally they would look like aggressors and thus it would remove their ability to comment on other similar disputes, not to mention the money it costs to occupy such a place, as well as the aforementioned tensions and divisions within the army (traditional Kemalism believes in a Turkey confined to its current borders, this was a reaction to the pan-Turkist adventurism and expansionism of the Young Turks, CUP etc), as well as the previously mentioned possibility that Turkey’s current Kurdish insurgency in the south-east would then just spill over to northern Syria. In Turkey hundreds of soldiers have died in the past few months.
I believe there is nothing to worry about and the intelligent and prudent Russo-Iranian axis have thought out every move and know the Turks cannot stay in northern Syria and if they do so they will create a mini-Vietnam there as Turkey’s south-east is now.
Read more at http://syrianperspective.com/2016/08/daarayyaa-totally-clean-syrian-army-mops-it-up-700-join-militias-to-fight-wahhabism.html#8jJGKIIeaiHDicvp.99
Thank you Muslim Dude for such great post and excellent link.
God speed to you!
Regards,
Carmel by the Sea