Today, Denis Pushilin, the head of the DNR, held a press conference. To my knowledge, there is no English language transcript (so far, if there is one, please send it to me!). I have not yet had the time to listen to the full thing (3 hours long), but the key moment, as reported by the Russian media, is that Pushilin said that in case of Ukronazi attack, the LDNR forces will launch a counter-offensive on the Ukraine and that the Ukraine will face a powerful counter-attack and that the LDNR forces will not stop at the current line of contact.
While it is true that the LDNR forces have dramatically changed since 2014 and that they are now organized into units which, in theory, could execute a combined arms counter-attack into the operational depth of the Ukronazi forces, I do not believe that they could do that without Russian support. I know, some will say that I underestimate the quality and determination of the LDNR forces, to which I would reply that to underestimate the sheer firepower of the Ukronazi forces or the quality and size of their defensive fortifications is also not very smart.
If/when the Ukies attack, their most likely objective will be to pin down DNR forces by an attack on the city of Donetsk, but I don’t believe that their forces will actually try to enter deeply the city. The attack on Donetsk should be seen here as a distracting maneuver. The main objective of the main/real attack will be to cut off the LDNR territory by bypassing cities and rushing to the Russian border (either in the south, or the center or both). They already tried something similar in 2014 (and almost succeeded!). Keep in mind that the LDNR forces have no strategic depth and cannot trade space for time.
The good news, however, is that Russia can, and will, open up on these forces with much of her firepower and simply obliterate them while also attacking all the command and control centers of the Ukie operation. If that happens, then the LDNR forces could, indeed, counter-attack and, at the very least, fully liberate the Donetsk and Lugansk regions. LDNR forces might also attack Mariupol again because, unlike what happened in 2014, the LDNR forces will not be threatened by a Ukie envelopment from the north. I also believe that the urban assault capabilities of the LDNR are much stronger than what they were in 2014 (when the LDNR forces were still mostly a poorly organized militia of volunteers only capable of small, if very effective, engagements).
If that happens, then it will be for the LDNR command, in very close and intensive cooperation with Russian forces, to decide how far to go. The notion of a collapse of the entire Ukrainian front would become a real possibility.
Okay, I am going to listen to Pushilin now and if there is something important said, I will report it here, either later today or, more likely, tomorrow.
Kind regards
The Saker
All the way to Kiev!
DougDigger
Not necessary ! Patience is a virtue. The LDNR forces do not need to take too much territory, only to liberate the Donetsk and Lugansk regions and see the collapse of the Ukrainian front. After that they need to stop and watch the repercussions inside Ukraine. Zelensky would be finished, while the country would be looking into dissipation, breaking up into three parts, as predicted by analysts.
That’s not really necessary! While LDNR forces are more than enough to defend their territory, they lack the manpower, resources and the logistics to go all the way to Kiev without a significant support from Russia. And by support I mean a lot of boots on the ground.
Unfortunately, while LDNR forces are capable to defeat Ukies militarily, it may not be enough – they may have to repeat the exercise two or three times, until the Nazis in Kiev get the picture.
And if those in power in Kiev are the same kind of psychopats like those in Washington D.C. – well, in this case nothing short of complete military defeat of Ukrainian forces would do the job.
LDNR forces are lacking all kinds of equipment, weapons, ammo, armor vests, clothing etc. They live exclusively on donations. And when/if they complain to their superiors, the superiors punish them for creating a “panicking situation”. Typical Soviet mentality.
Nothing much is going to happen ! All this saber rattling from Zelensky is to test NATO’s waters
NATO is not going to take part in the fighting and Ukraine will not be admired to NATO either – All what they will receive is logistical help and Russia will do quit pro quo – It’s all designed to kill Nordstream and relation between Moskau and EU
They will dig up old conflicts in the Middle East and will bring Turkey in line against Russia – It’s already happening !
I’ve been reading that the Turks have been sending drones and jihadists from Libya and Syria into Ukraine. The battlefields of Libya and Syria, and even Armenia are one thing, but am I wrong to think that it’s madness to use them on actual Russians on her border? What’s going on here?
Indeed it’s madness – Once Russia is on the run, nothing is going to stop them – still Russia should be cautious because the West is not going to fight ethically and by convention
“and will, open up on these forces with much of her firepower and simply obliterate them while also attacking all the command and control centers of the Ukie operation.”
Those forces have to know they won’t be long for this world. The morale on the ground has to be at rock bottom.
Ukrainian forces should have very high moral after so many years of hate propaganda.
I do not know.
Maybe there somebody in Ukraine that can say something about that.
I can say that people do not want war. However having said unfortunately, government does not care, same as in the West. Most are against wars, and wars continue. I remember Iraq War. Millions showed up on the streets, and war went ahead anyway. As a Ukrainian, I will say that I am ashamed and deeply saddened by what is happening. I do not support the war, and I am strongly against seeing murder of my fellow Ukrainians. I am against hate and violence. And I also see through the lies of the West. Although one can argue that people of Donbass are not Ukrainians. However one has to remember that Donbass has been part of Ukraine for over 70-80 years. Whole new generation grew up, and they know/knew the country in its present borders.
There is sanity in Ukraine, and there are people who see through lies, it is there if not always visible. Late Andre Vlthcek traveled though Ukraine and met these people. Part of the reason why there was a crackdown on opposition is because people are waking up. And there are nationalists who use violence against people who disagree with them. It is not surprising. US used violent groups in regime changes all over the world. What is happening in Ukraine has been happening for decades in the third world. Europe enabled US regime changes and imperialism. Now Europe got regime change in its own backyard. Anyone who read history will not be surprised. Evil done to others has a tendency to bounce back. What did Westerners expect is going to happen. Commit atrocities in the third world and expect to be untouched? As Athenian historian Thysidities wrote 2500 years ago, when writing about Pelopponian war, between Athens and Sparta: “The tyranny Athens imposed on others, it finally imposed on itself”
I pray that my countrymen simply refuse to fight. You cannot expect us Ukrainians to rise up if Americans and Europeans do not set an example. Millions of Americans showing up infront of the Pentagon day in day out. Mass acts of civil disobedience. We have a common enemy, and I fully understand that empire wants Ukrainians and Russians to fight. And I refuse. I admit however I am lost. I do not know what to do. I live in Canada. Ukrainian diaspora in Canada and US are the most Rusdophobic. Not surprising. In the aftermath of WWII, US and Canada brouht nazi collaborators and also Nazis over. You reap what you saw. And not surprising, since US and Canada commited genocide against original people. Chickens have come home to roost. I do not know what to say without being labelled as a traitor. Western propaganda is indeed very effective, sadly. This is also needs to happen. Wrestle control of the narrative away from Empire. I hope I explained as best as I could. Take care.
@Andalusian Musician
It’s quite possible that there might be nothing that you can do, at least at the current stage. There must be more clarity at some point in the future. For now, hang in there, live a healthy and as peaceful as possible life, and don’t feel obliged to argue with anyone or convince anyone in anything. There’s no such thing as a necessity to win or be right.
Thank you for your understanding. Peaceful life to you also. I wanted to say that there are sane Ukrainians. We are in the same position as in the West. In the US people voted twice for peace. First for Obama, and for Trump, but instead they got more wars. It seems that the ruling elites simply do not listen to the people, and ordinary average people feel demoralized. I spoke with fellow Ukrainians in Ukraine. I know in the months leading up to Maidan there was a lot of anger at the corruption. It seems it is always the case: “Meet the new Boss, same as the old Boss”. My feeling can be summed up in one sentence, which I read many years ago in a newspaper, about conflict in Sudan, which goes something like this: “We hate the system, but we love our country” It is truly sad that things turned our this way. It all goes back over 1000 years, when the princes of Kievan Rus instead of standing united, chose to fight among themselves for power. No interest in common good. We would not have been in this situation. I wonder, where would we be today, if our ancestors thought of common good, instead of selfishness. Once again big thank to you. Take care.
Just a couple of years ago, i took part in a Trade Show for heavy vehicles in Braunschweig Germany …Exhibitors from around the world. I talked to a Russian exhibitor and he made the comment “In Rostov, we are just busy with commercial issues. For us, Moscow is far away but we are aware that Moscow is handling many vital decisions which affect all of us. We trust the Kremlin to take care of our interests.”….I moved on to another exhibitor who had Russian vehicles and a lot of cyrilic display cards. As an opener i pointed out that they should really have taken some time to translate the cards into English and German. I then asked about the Russian vehicles on the stand. The guy on the stand turned out to be a Canadian Ukrainian…. We got talking about politics. He started to rant and rave and swear and wave his arms about, he mentioned all the evils and sins that Russia represented in his eyes. i just replied “fascinating…” he looked at me in disgust as if he was about to hit me. I pointed out “How come, if you are so Russophobic, you have traveled with a Russian truck all the way to Germany, to show the kind of Russian equipment that you yourself are selling in Canada…how come?” The guy just sat down speechless as if my words had punched him in the gut….
He is not the only Canadian-Ukrainian that i have had contact with, with this irrational hatred of Russia…The British did a lot of bad things in the past to my own country of origin but i live in London and do not carry any ill feelings towards the British…although i must admit…after reading about all the evil stuff the Danes did in London 1000 years ago, i wonder if i can look a Dane in the face again….;oD
Anyway i disgress…just to stay on topic, it makes perfect sense to me for the LDNR to have not only secured a defensive perimeter for their own preferred form of government, but to actually be prepared for the moment they can secure the whole of Donetsk and Lugansk Oblasts and if provoked further, to take over Kiev…and secure the former Russia territories all the way to the Dniepr…and if NATO starts being openly active, for Russia to assist the DNLR forces to clean up the whole of the hostile Ukrainan political entities. No need for Russian forces to enter overtly…and no need to use nuclear weapons “in demonstration” or “in anger” …
I see no reason why Russia needs to be kind towards all the NATO-origin mercenaries and infiltrators and opportunists…
But it would be worthwhile to show the British media openly that a Russian submarine is positioned off UK shores…The City of London is where all the malevolence started…
This the problem with Ukrainian Canadians. A sad history. Canada brought such people over, along with US in order to aid in the cold war.
Part of the problem lies in fact that after WW2 significant number of Bandera fascist ended up in Canada and US plus, add to the formula Ukrainian Uniat Church with its history and division … there you have all the necessary ingredients for today’s mess.
Yup,but a lot of Canadians aren’t drinking the coolaid and are fed up with all those war propaganda. Remember, our Prime Minister didn’t follow Bush when the ‘coalition’ invaded Irak… We did participate in Nato bombings during the Bosnian war though :(
Analyst wrote: ” after reading about all the evil stuff the Danes did in London 1000 years ago, i wonder if i can look a Dane in the face again”
Don´t be afraid of Danes, we are kind people.
We only Rape, Kill and Burn when we have eaten little mushrooms and been drinking Snaps.
So if you see a Dane searching the bottom of the woods with a bottle in his hand, get the F out of there.
On the other hand, I read about Germans attacking Denmark twice.
So maybe we should all let bygones bygones.
Btw, I have friends in Braunschweig.
Marko
Ukrainian forces having high moral ? Is this even theoretically possible in an impoverished country ? True, you can never underestimate your opponent. However, i just don’t see Ukrainian conscripts being eager for war.
@Marko
Propaganda is powerful motivator,
but being exposed to real life oppresion is much more durable one.
When battle begin for real,
motivation of those who are driven by false beliefs dissipates very quickly.
Then only captagon helps.
As far as they need to go to discourage the Ukrainian army from further attacks. Anything further is just overstretching and could backfire. Remember, LDNR are the ones defending themselves.
No need to act like an aggressor. There is a greater fight being fought, and it is for the hearts and minds of regular Ukrainians. They are the ones who need to overthrow the Nazi regime in Kiev.
Sometimes attack is the best defense. Besides, the biggest aim of most regular ukrainians seems to be escaping from Ukraine and find a job and a new life abroad, not regime change, neither heroic fight for any sort of ideals.
I understand, but there is nowhere to go anymore. What happens in Ukraine today, can happen anywhere tomorrow.
Sure, and if it happens elsewhere? So? keep running?
There is nowhere else to run. Unless you want to sign up and go to Mars with Elon Musk.
The response from the West in terms of vitreolic propoganda & economic sanctions ( NS 2 scrapped and Russia cut off from swift ) is guarenteed whether LDNR forces advance 5 metres or 500 km West. Therefore, the calculation should be based solely on military / strategic considerations.
head of the NATO Military Committee arrived in Ukraine.
Apparently Z visits ” front line” tomorrow ….
Who in their right mind tell up front what they are gonna do?
«Hey everybody, the president is coming to the frontline»
Watch out for false flag. One dead Ze is good propaganda!
Well it’s is a chance for him to either say onward to the gates of hell….or come to some kind of sense and admission that he really is a commander in chief(as a get out and get some acnowledgement) and publicly announce withdrawal and return to July ceasefire and compliance with Minsk …..a new team of negotiators etc etc…..
How far?
For the best outcome I would suggest – as far as the locals agree.
Those in power in Ukraine are thugs, I do not belive normal people support them.
When they see them fall and flee my guess you will not need Russians stomping on them.
But, I would not go further. Just a lot of fire up their arse.
Oh, and the Black sea coast is a must. All of it.
They should stop at the Dnepr. And let Nazi Western Ukraine starve.
Since years, Russians always surprised me by their reactions in facing a Big problem.
Each time, Georgia 08/08, Crimea, Donbass 2014, Syria 2015, Turkey with the coup, surprise, kind of happy confusion and then a big laugh of approbation and admiration.
There Always a common point:totaly unexpected, incredible speed and total determination.
I Can bet that once more, they will surprise us.
For the Donbass republics fighters, they have a big advantage: motivation.
I can’t imagine that Ukies soldiers are very glad to go dying for US agenda. I don’t think they are stupid and I’m sure that they fully understand what’s happening.
They were severly beaten twice already.
Why will they fight with the bottom of their hart? For Zelensky? For Azov? For Biden?
Donbass soldiers see their families being shelled without pay back. They defend their land and those they love.
They know that they are in the heart of the mother of all battles.
Who will be ready to kill, ready to die?
Where they must go?
Depends on the reactions of inhabitants in KarkhOv, Dniepropetrovsk, Marioupol and…Odessa? :)
I don’t think the contact line will move. Russia is aware this is a distracting provocation in order to definetely block de NS 2 pipeline. The situation will easily be contained on the ground. However, in the propaganda front, Russia can not cope with the empire ubicuitous media (global broadcasting, virtual world press monopoly, virtual world social network monopoly, virtual world film production and distribution monopoly, Hollywood, Netflix, etc) NOR in the NGO civil society front OR the financial money front. So all in all the advantage still goes to the anglozionist slavering fascist empire, which will let the ukronazis bleed dry. When the time comes, the whole Ucraine will collapse at once like a dead horse.
Concerning the twin Donbass republics, I am still suspicious about the deaths of Motorola, Gibi, Mostovoy and other commanders. This can’t be a coincidence. They were all executed with the permission of higher inner powers, which is extremely sad and disheartening
Russia is aware this is a distracting provocation in order to definetely block de NS 2 pipeline.
Oh as soon as Russia openly intervenes, NS2 will be stopped.
Also, if Russia has to chose between money and her own nationals, she should chose the latter.
People keep bringing up NS2 and it’s near completion as some sort of factor in the timing of this crisis.
The gas flow will be regulated by the EU, which means the Eurocrats will have ample opportunity to legally harass the NS2 project through anti-trust laws, environmental non-compliance rules etc. Even after the pipeline has been built.
I’ve written about NS2 in one of my comments in some of the preceding articles from the sequence, and I’ll just repeat a few key points:
– NS2 is an alternative to pipeline through Ukraine, and provides just a fraction of the gas demand in EU (Russian gas is totally covering around 30% of EU gas consumption)
– there is already pipeline in Ukraine that can be used instead, if Russian forces size the control of a large part of the Ukraine the need for NS2 is going to go down anyhow
– Russia is already selling LNG and is investing enormously in the LNG infrastructure so either way it will be able to sell and deliver gas to EU or whoever pays more
If EU force stop NS2 project Russia is going to get compensation in court and at a same time gain control of the pipeline in Ukraine: win-win
NS2 discussion is just smokescreen promoted by the different secret services (MI6, CIS, BND …) meant to scare Russian public in not supporting Ukraine aggression.
Or is it a way for the AZ Empire to start a war in Europe? By using the Polish army and navy to attack NS2, causing Germany to defend…
I agree….
NS has 35 km to go…. They are laying 1.4 km / day….
Will be finished by mid May.
BUT…..
Russia is investing heavily in LNG and petro-chemicals. both of which have higher value and are fungible. That is, they can be delivered anywhere.
Regardless, there is no reason for either Russia or Novorossians to be in a hurry. The fields won’t be firm until mid to late May anyway. Plenty of time to use loitering munitions to degrade the putschist forces….
INDY
Everyone knows NS2 has nothing to do with ‘money’. NS2 is all about much larger geopolitical and geostrategic implications whose significance dwarves even that of ‘dead nationals.’ Yes, believe it or not, NS2 is THAT important. It has geostrategic consequences that can change the world, so no, Russia is not going to choose to save a few nationals’ lives over NS2 because the ramifications of NS2 eventually will be to save millions of lives and prevent globalist take over of the entire world. Millions of lives outweighs a few thousand.
“However, in the propaganda front, Russia can not cope with the empire ubicuitous media (global broadcasting, virtual world press monopoly, virtual world social network monopoly, virtual world film production and distribution monopoly, Hollywood, Netflix, etc)”
Russia doesn`t have to cope with the Empire in the propaganda front. West lost the info-war already – and because of that, West is going to lose also kinetic war. In reality, there`s no unity in the West anymore, it`s fragmenting before our eyes – which make it weak and indecisive.
Hollywood, Netflix etc. are mostly seen as the “the same old shit” – and because of the liberal propaganda content, they have no meaningless function anymore.
Biden is the embodiment of the West. Look at him, and you see the so-called West in it`s naked madness, sinking rapidly to the bottom of the sea.
@Yoni Reinon, about Mozgovoy, back to August 2014 in Yalta:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DduUT0Djc5Y
I am afraid that he saw “too well” the reality around him and that caused his death…
I quote from something published tonight in the Russian army news site:
Russia has good reason to believe that biological weapons are being developed in US-controlled biolabs that are now emerging around the world. This statement was made by the Secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation Nikolai Patrushev in an interview with Kommersant.
At the same time, he drew particular attention to the fact that such laboratories mainly appear at the Russian and Chinese borders.
“They are assured that these are research centers where Americans help local scientists to develop new ways to fight dangerous diseases. True, the authorities of the countries where these objects are located have no real idea of what is happening within their walls, ”explained the Secretary of the Security Council.
Patrushev stressed that in those areas where such laboratories have appeared, doctors register outbreaks of diseases that are not typical for these regions.
In addition, the Secretary of the Security Council expressed the opinion that at the moment relations between Russia and the United States are at their lowest level since the end of the Cold War. At the same time, he added that Moscow expects to establish a dialogue with Washington.
Dialogue with Washington? All that the US wants is to hear is Russia submission. Other than that there is nothing the US will talk about.
The US and Russia have essentially broken off diplomatic relations, see:
Statement from US Ambassador John Sulliivan:
“The United States has informed the Government of the Russian Federation that the U.S. Consulate General in Vladivostok will remain in suspended status. The U.S. ConsulateGeneral in Yekaterinburg will remain open. However, it will suspend visa and Americancitizen services as of April 1, 2021.”
17 MARCH
Russian Embassy comment with regard to the invitation of Ambassador Anatoly Antonov to Moscow for consultations
On March 20, Ambassador of Russia to the United States Anatoly Antonov is leaving for Moscow for consultations. During his meetings in the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and other agencies, it is planned to discuss ways to rectify Russia-U.S. ties that are in crisis.
The current situation is a result of the deliberate policy of Washington that during the past years was making steps to bring — in essence, intentionally — our bilateral interaction into a deadlock. The unconstructive course of the Administration towards our country does not meet the interests of Russia and the United States, while certain ill-considered statements of high-ranking U.S. officials have put the already excessively confrontational relations under the threat of collapse at all.
We stand for dialogue between the two UN Security Council permanent members bearing particular responsibility for international peace and security. We assume that good and pragmatic ties between Russia and the United States meet the aspirations of our countries and the entire international community.
and from RT Russia unlikely to send recalled ambassador back to Washington without clear sign US ready for bilateral relations, Moscow insists
There might be no return to any normal relations between the US and Russia. It’s possible and plausible that President Putin will announce (end of April as scheduled) a further massive separation of Russia from the Western system, particularly the economic/financial side of it and Russia taking her own way separate from the West on a different economic model and system. This is not exactly like the cold war but some enhanced new version of that, in many ways more separated. They are simply detaching from a sinking ship, but will allow those that want to escape to join them.
I doubt it will be an abrupt change but it will be a steep and swift change. Of course, this is only my speculation.
Further distancing away from the Titanic called US Economy, in fact anything US, is a must if any country wants to survive. That being said the one step Russia should do is to declare that the US dollar is no more a means of settlement for Russia-made products, raw materials and services.
Companies such as Yandex, Sber Bank etc. that refuse to do business in Krim should be taxed/nationalised in order to bring them into the fold.
Sportsmen/women that are willing to prostrate themselves in front of the crooks from big international sport bodies which themselves are corrupted to the maximum, should be talked to and given incentives to forget about taking part in sporting shambles where the symbols of their country are banned.
All those oligarchs that are involved in bleeding Russia dry should be visited by troikas and ultimatums should be given: cease and desist or else…
War is coming. Perhaps not now, but it is definitely coming. The demon-possessed politicians from America will not stop. They want Russian/Slavic blood in order to, as Michael Hudson and Pepe conveyed the other day, right ancient wrongs that allegedly were committed by Russian emperors who were just defending their land from this crazy nation that was involved in slavery, wars and subversion ever since they were put on this planet (a topic of its own). The hatred towards Russians their Church and their only ally, the Serb people and their Church, runs very very deep.
Thank you for the interesting perspective, Marko.
We are at the doorstep of a new age/era/period of human experience/history and the life of this word. This is why we have all this crazy tension, since the daemons are super active. Russia is the enemy of choice for those that are scared to look at themselves, see the incoming deserved demise, and repent. Russia either will be a major leading factor (maybe not THE leader since there might not be a single leader at least initially) or not exist. Yes, it is that extreme, without a middle ground (recall how Putin said that he couldn’t accept a world without Russia).
I doubt it will go without a war. However, it is possible to go without an extreme war.
The destruction of Orthodoxy mainly and as a consequence of Russia is a deep desire of the west for a millennium. They have this wrath and enmity that we (all regular people) unavoidably will experience on our backs and we are already experiencing. Great is the fear and the guilt at the same time, because they know that their time is up. In their hearts, they have built this perception/deception that everything would be fine and solved if Russia was not there, they will not be exposed, they will avoid judgement, they will be able to do whatever they want (even change their God-given gender) not bound by some values and tradition, or fundamental principles/truth, or any consequences.
It’s a bit like “Hotel California”: they are building this big luxurious hell, a big massive Hollywood, where everything is an illusion even their being/ontology – ruled by hashtags and twitters, ideologies, movies (and movie empowerment like black/gay/trans empowerment even though they are miserable in reality), stories, fake fiat money, fake news, online rage, amazon shopping, etc., all artificial and not real but ultimately an apostasy leading to nihilism and desolation. They are about to wake up to the reality in a very rude way, but that is so much better for them than living in that hell.
Russia already reduced trading in dollars quite a lot and will probably enter a new stage of dedollarization.
Band Itkoitko:
“It’s a bit like “Hotel California”: they are building this big luxurious hell, a big massive Hollywood, where everything is an illusion even their being/ontology…”
Exactly. Hunger Games and Wizard of Oz in one. But we all know what happens to both the plutocrats and the Wizard.
And yes you are also correct when you say that this is an existential battle. It is us or them.
Yes, these bio-labs will need to be removed at some point. Either through peaceful and controlled measures or via ensured destructive measures, e.g., using thermobaric weapons like FOAB to incinerate all biological material and prevent any possible spread and collateral biological damage.
How Far? To Dnieper and in the south to Odessa which should not be allowed to become a NATO counter base to Sevastopol. And of course Mariupol.
Then offer everyone who wants and qualifies( no fascists or quislings) Russian passports ( no dual citizenship either because that is a big trap for any country).
But, what do I know? Secure all Nuclear reactors and beware of scorched earth type tactics and set-up false flags… I’d be filming it all and releasing video daily to the UN and to the world press.
And let them squeal and scream… As for Germany, there may be a surprise because this whole debacle of having to follow insane US leadership ( Germans prize winning and this fight is an insane loser fight) might create a division in the German ruling class and those with a bit of testosterone left might just say. 1. we will buy cheaper gas 2. we will not buy fracked gas which is environmentally destructive from the get-go. 3. we will not be lemmings or lambs lead to the slaughter. Just say nein and you will be fine, my German friends.
Novorussians! Our hearts are with you!
To the Dniepr! From Belarus to the Black Sea!
At best LDNR forces should free the whole Donbass region, including Mariupol and Slavjansk.
Diplomatic, moderate standing of Kreml just posponed a crisis which is due to explode anyway, having been misinterpreted by Kiev and his masters in Washington as sign of weakness.
If a military move is not to be avoided, it should be so effectively, powerfully brutal to annihilate the ukrainian forces and their NATO advisors in the region, giving them a lesson to be remembered for decades. That won‘t damage diplomatic relations with EU/NATO, because they are already de facto destroyed.
Direct involvement of Russian forces is justified, they have the right and the duty to protect several hundred thousands russian citizens in Donbass from ethnical cleansing.
Terrible times.
The Ukie’s attack on LDNR would be a pretext for Russia to obliterate whatever remains of Ukrainian forces, this would allow the extension of LDNR’s territory right upto the Dnieper river.
This turn of events could well be a feint for the Chinese to subdue Taiwan. In this manner both Russia as well as China could accomplish their objectives.
How much territory can the LDNR hold on to? Also, advancing into enemy territory must serve a purpose. This could range from punitive actions against known ukronazi criminals to try to set up a liberation army.
If advancing deep into western Ukraine is the aim, logistics becomes an issue. Finally, Nato may also have plans regarding occupation of western Ukraine, in part to preclude a deep sally by the LDNR.
Dear Saker, it is fantastic what you have done all these years keeping us up to date. A big thank you! And greetings from Switzerland.
I have changed my mind only the last days and think the time has come, but there are Options 1; 2-min and 2-max. Option 1 is what Russia is currently doing, i.e. trying to deter the war. Though the enemy is fanatic and thirsts for war, Russia has many levers to stop the war, in several dimensions. For example, frighten the Ukies, frighten Western decision-makers, deal with the AZE’s masters (Israel) and so forth.
If the Ukies do attack there is always 2-min, i.e. doing as little as possible with as much plausible deniability as possible to stop the aggressors. The only upside might be to save NS2, but there will be several serious drawbacks such as a risk that NATO occupies Ukraine or that NS2 is stopped by sheer aggression (underwater-mines) afterwards, and of course that US/NATO do not get the message (as PCR say) = more future trouble very soon.
The 2-max option is to go all in to crush Ukraine once and for all. To really ensure the collapse the DLPRs must advance all the way to Kiev if needed. In addition, they must blow up large amounts of bridges, power stations and so on, apart from sending missiles into decison-centres. They can be transported around in helicopters under a Russia-guaranteed no-fly-zone. They must make sure to capture high-ranking officials where-ever they go and they will do that through bribing people (must cheaper than warfare). They will also spread a rumour that they will shoot down private jets just to scare the Oligarchs into negotiations. A few days after the work is done the DLPRs withdraw to their new (old) Oblast + a few more strategic territories (Mariupol, Odessa?). Do a referendum in the Oblasts just to be sure.
When the NATO idiots panick and try to call Putin he should not answer the first days but instead let Shoigu say that any NATO airplanes going to Ukraine have a high risk of being shot down due to the difficult circumstances… Speaking about that, the DLPRs should try to liquidate as many NATO soldiers as possible this time. Also here they should bribe poor Ukies to betray the NATO soldiers.
This is not only a big threat, but a big opportunity with the corrupt & senile Biden in the WH. The time has come for US/NATO to get a message they will never forget. And Russia will do very well without NS2 but Germany will not. So it is now up to Germany to do something…
Hi El Cid,
“Deal with the AZE’s masters (Israel)” seems to be in the pipework, if what Lebanese media is discussing is factual:
RUSSIA AND HEZBOLLAH TO OPEN REPRESENTATIVE OFFICE IN MOSCOW: REPORT
https://southfront.org/russia-and-hezbollah-to-open-representative-office-in-moscow-report/
The blind leading the blind is a circular argument (pure vanity). The average Russian and Ukrainian, or any person born in this world, would live in peace if only they govern their own affairs rather than elect equally flawed people do it for them. Government is antithetical to freedom and the lines on a map are the delusional claims of a mad man who was born into this world with nothing and shall leave it the same way. As there is no respect for any mad mans claim not backed by the threat of violence, there will be egocentric mad men with guns saying they own the land and the cry for war will never be silenced.
The real war is between reality (i.e. God) and human self serving egocentric vanity. I have all my money on almighty reality (so far undefeated).
Saker has said many times that Ukraine is a basket case financially. Is it possible Biden is provoking Russia to attack so as to make Ukraine Russia’s basket case? Solves a lot of differences with the EU and buries many Biden family skeletons.
I think burying the Biden family skeletons in Ukraine is at the top of Biden’s priority list and should be factored into planning by the Russians.
Ukraine is no worse than the US, so called “Richest country in the world”, where millions go hungry, where 4 in 10 people cannot cover $400 emergence, while military wastes fantastic sums of money on weapons, which do not work! Or Europe, whose leaders are leading the continent off the cliff.
“Solves a lot of differences with the EU and buries many Biden family skeletons.”
Truth, reality, and consequences have a tendency of catching up with you, no matter how far you run.
The best war to end war, any war, would be for the Ukies themselves to forcibly remove the Jewish, amerikan aligned oligarchs calling the shots in Kiev. A reverse Maiden if you will, is badly needed right now. That way, the CIA, Mossad, NATO A-holes, I mean elements operating there, can simply be told to pack up and leave. Peacefully if possible, with more direct persuasion if they wont. No need for WWIII.
Funny how uS propaganda bleated endlessly about ‘democracy’ and ‘freedom’ during the run up to overthrow the previous gov’t. Of course, the current uS backed regime was\is far less democratic that the one it overthrew (As in not even remotely).
So, where are all those democracy and freedom fry loving Ukrainians that clogged the Maiden day in day out? I dont see them, or anyone calling for regime-change against the completely corrupt and paid for regime in Kiev, even as it prepares to start a way they cannot possibly win.
Why isnt Victoria handing out freedom cookies and calling for ‘democracy’ and railing against oppression and oligarchy on the streets of Kiev?
Funny that…..
As you say, they have no operational depth. Perhaps this would be the time to acquire some…
Optimal line:
Dnieper plus line up with far north border of Transnistria. Territory need to be defendable, so there needs to be deep in the background of the Black Sea.
The question is people sentiments in the bigger cities like Odesa, Kharkov, Mariupol, Kherson, Poltava, Kharkiv, Mykolaiv, Dnipro.
I would vouch for taking them military (flank them and isolate, negotiate giving up arms/eliminate extremists that wouldn’t) and then after some short time and stabilization organize local referendums asking them to decide if they want to be part of Malorusia or belong to some Ukraine state / other legal entity (maybe exist like city-states).
I believe Ukraine front is going to collapse pretty soon after the few strategic breakthroughs, decapitation of the local headquarters and flanking maneuvers.
Polite green men can do few strategic airdrops in the rear and open for breakthroughs and speed up process.
Agreed re Хау јес ноу’s suggested Optimal line, however I fear it will be stretching the LDNR forces to police the new expanded border. So it will cost to recruit from the population and pay salaries, or to pay some PMC to do it.
A headache that may very quickly come up in the remaining rump Banderastan are NATO ABMs, IRBMs and SRBMs pointing at Moscow, to feed the poor starving sods at Raytheon and BAE Systems.
Like it or not it will require RF to permanently extend more layers of S300+S400 A2/AD all the way to the new border. And lots of multi band radars to track and shoot down pesky stealth craft. And some S500s for when Raytheon actually succeeds in delivering hypersonics to Uncle Schmuel’s LGBTQ+ military.
All of this cost will have to be paid for from a successful agricultural/industrial economic development of LDNR.
How likely is Zelensky to engage in suicidal policies? When he was elected he was described as controlled by Kolomovsky. Does this seem to be the case, and would Kolomovsky, who is Israeli, allow suicidal policies? Or are the Nazis behind threat of war and they really control Zelensky? Or is it the CIA/White House?
I’ve read that Zelensky is trying to break away from Kolomoisky and that the US is trying to bring him up on charges of money laundering. I think Zelensky is fully owned by the US now.
Its interesting that the U.S. is after Kolomoisky. I wonder what they dislike about him?
Time plays in favor of Russia: No debts, no military dependence on other countries, a lot of natural resources. No need to hurry to make any point.
Thus, I’d recommend to exercie the maximum restrain possible, only securing those critical issues that cannot wait. The rest will come naturally. That means protecting DLNR but not extending their territory, and letting the Ukies to “cook themselves in their sauce”.
Russia did exercise maximum restraint for seven years. Besides, liberation from the NATO-Nazis won’t come naturally. On the contrary, the tyranny – and ruining of the Ukraine – will only get worse. They need some help.
In case of a massive Ukronazi attack, the LDNR forces/Russians will rightly counterattack [I find The Saker’s analyses remarkably good] and should, at the very least, create a sparsely populated buffer zone by fully liberating the Donetsk and Lugansk regions.
Might as well (with Russian support) liberate the Ukraine altogether, except Galicia. See (the map): https://www.geopolitica.ru/en/article/there-are-no-valid-arguments-against-liberation-novorossia
Let Poland have that little Ukraine bit, maybe they’ll be nicer to Russia after a meal!
If they are determined to catch all the worst Ukie leaders, they may have to go as far as Israel.
Here’s an excerpt from a comment by ‘oldhippie’ on Moon of Alabama a few days ago:
Arsen Avakov, only constant member of post Maidan governments, Interior Minister, commander of all militias, would be my pick for next US puppet. For about five minutes if he does not run. Hypernationalist neo-nazi for show, he is a Soviet Armenian Jew. Avakian before he relocated to Ukraine.
When all this started a few years ago, I think it was Saker who revealed that it was Jewish oligarchs who recruited and organised and paid the ‘neo-nazi’ groups. A lot of Swastikas may be replaced by Stars of David on the flight to Jerusalem.
Some may be prowling Dubai like this scumbag pal of Obama:
Ukrainian detained in Dubai over raunchy naked balcony photoshoot claimed to be US Democratic Party adviser, local media reports
https://www.rt.com/russia/520346-grechin-ukrainian-dubai-arrest/
Call the bluff. China takes Taiwan. Russia takes Ukraine-No more statehood. Let all the nazis escape to the west. Blow up the gas pipe. Secure Syria. Put sanctions on EU.
As an afterthought, why not to blow up SWIFT. And of course all the command centers.
Perhaps if history repeats itself, Russia will do something none of us predict. After all if we here can guess what Russia will do, so too might the USA/NATO. Therefore expect the unexpected.
Saker, I for one don’t think you necessarily ‘underestimate’ the rebel forces but rather they are outnumbered on a scale of something like 10 to 1. Last I heard Ukrops had 300k total men and rebels about 30k. So no matter how well trained rebels are that’s a tough ladder to climb to do a counter offensive and gain ground against 300k. The reason being is that when you’re on the defensive, we all know the rule of thumb is the attacker sieging you should expect to have 3x more men to succeed, so rebels have some chance if they’re dug in and defending. But on the offensive they technically should need a numerical advantage.
With that said, the 300k figure is total Ukie armed forces in the country and I don’t know how many of those they can realistically bring to bear as they only have a fraction of that currently hear the front lines so who knows, if it turns out that the 300k figure is way too optimistic of a figure then maybe rebels could very well succeed in a counteroffensive.
Neophyte, I wonder if you have heard the old story about the general who was chairing a meeting of his officers in face of an invasion.
Presently a young colonel burst in, warning that “the enemy now has 80,000 men”.
“Oh good,” replied the general. “Then we are certain to win”.
“Why do you say that?” he was asked. “We have only 25,000”.
“Ah,” explained the general, ” I know the enemy commander well. He is quite a deft tactician, and would be dangerous in charge of a regiment or a brigade. With luck, and a good staff, he could perhaps manage a division or two.
“But there is no way he can possibly control 80,000 men. He will get confused, neglect logistics, send contradictory orders, and create complete chaos. We will just walk in and mop up”.
If the Ukrainian forces do attack, and are properly chastised by the Russian Federation then LDNR forces should advance to gain sufficient strategic depth as long as they won’t suffer a partisan uprising.
If possible, all of Luhansk and Donetsk, along with Kharkiv, Zaporizhia and Kherson. That would provide Russia the option of supplying Crimea through regular land routes although it would greatly increase the contact line. LDNR would need a substantial increase in military personnel to guard the perimeter, but these might be drawn from supporting population.
A special thanks to all the mods who must be very busy with so many comments. A special round of applause for a different type of warrior: keeping the forums open from ‘snipers’, ‘subversives’ etc. And yes, it is all part of the Info Wars. I don’t know what kind of ‘incoming’ you have had from any like the idiots in britain called the 77th brigade, but please keep it up. Thanks again.
I recommend when both sides receive the order to attack each other they turn around and shot their commanding officers. The war will be over in one day and the survivors will be home for dinner before the sun goes down. It will be the shortest war in history with the fewest casualties. Supper is ready!
never was a truer word spoken.
I don’t like to be an armchair strategist but since everyone else is doing it I may as well join in the fun.
1. First of all I’m no longer afraid of what Nato will or won’t do. They’re cowards and blowhards and if the Russian military reads them the riot act they will take no action to threaten Russia. I also don’t believe in the Samson Option where the imperialists will destroy the world before they lose their dominance. The elite are all cowards and will all try to save their individual necks before any doctrine. In other words they will never sacrifice their personal lives for a “cause”. Because they’re survivalists they will adapt one by one to the new situation in the world. They just want you to believe that they’re crazy enough to do something stupid. This is also called the crazy doctrine which President Nixon tried to use.
2. Russia will never over extend itself. They will be Novorussia’s air force and missile battery force but will not provide troops because they won’t have to. In the advent of a Nazi aggression it would be great to first destroy the Nazi armed forces and then help Novorussia expand to not only the rest of Lugansk and Donetsk but to take over Mariupol and go as far as they can along the north coast of the Sea of Azov. This will make the Sea of Azov a complete Russian lake and provide extra protection for Crimea. Going all the way to Odessa will probably be too much to chew for the moment. I think Odessa would have to have an insurrection to have Novorussia hook up with them. Novorussia does not want to become occupiers and neither be seen as occupiers so they will also not over extend itself. The question of the moment is if Novorussia can not only expand to Mariupol but to the rest of the Sea of Azov coast all the way up to Crimea. If Novorussia can establish a base on the coast and consolidate with Russia’s help then eventually the liberation of the rest of southern Ukraine will be doable in good time. Can you imagine eventually Novorussia taking over the entire southern coast of Ukraine and thereby depriving the Nazis an outlet to the sea.
I agree completely. If elites wanted Sampson Option, it would have happened already. You never know. Nevertheless having said that, the greatest risk and fear that war can start accidently. Misunderstanding can happen. On more than few occasions, during the old Cold War, USA and USSR almost stumbled into war accidently.
Personally, I think that official Russian and LDNR forces and political leaders should take a worst case scenario position.
It seems to me that only such a scenario can explain the sheer scale of the outrageous fraud to ensure the election of “Biden”, fraud which included the stand down of all restraining institutions in the US, including the Supreme Court. I don’t think that such events can be explained simply by a desire to frustrate NS-2.
Depriving NATO of Odessa would be strategically advantageous, as well as being great for morale.
In 2014 the FSB/SVR made a survey in all eastern Ukraine to evaluate the degree of eventual support for Russia,Odessa was at only 50/50, Mariupol was at near 70/75%.Karkov at 80%, but in… 2014 it is probably lower or much lower after almost 7 years of brainwashing, censorship etc…It was the main reason they did not go further than the actual republics.They also were forced to let Slaviansk go after threats of….yes Biden(see burisma).They also calculated that reunification with Russia would have been loss making for decades, except if they took over everything from Odessa to Karkov.Russia already lost +- 150 billions in NR adventure and mainly sanctions on everything.Syria also costs a lot of money eventhough it is a perfect ‘show room’ for RUS weapons.
Russia is not the USSR, much smaller in terms of population.The demographics changed as well.Young urban generations who did not know the ‘US occupation’ and misery of the 90’s don’t realize it is not granted forever.
Older who have been through these years are slowly dying.It is not so easy to ”sell’ international costly interventions even to save Russians ethnics or rus speaking.Even less in Syria.
This article may be of interest as it relates to Iskander in Kaliningrad; (I note the link to National Interest, which is not completely neo con but close to cia retirees and atlantic council reps.
Maybe, just maybe, someone is paying some attention; author of nat int article, however, is not known to me and does not appear to be a heavyweight within the “blob.” I include a couple of links about nat int below but I am far from getting too optimistic as to whether anyone of any authority can think logically and realistically in the blob. To face facts, the people calling the shots in state, pentagon are neo con Russian haters to the core and are psychopathic by almost every criterion.
https://russtrat.ru/analytics/6-aprelya-2021-0010-3734
MOSCOW, April 6, 2021, RUSSTRAT Institute. On March 30, 2021, the American magazine The National Interest published an article titled “Why Russia’s Kaliningrad naval base presents a deadly dilemma for NATO” and the subtitle “The region is rapidly becoming an armed fortress full of more and more equipped military forces”.
Particular attention in the publication is paid to long-range missiles. First of all, American analysts singled out the Iskander-M operational-tactical missile system (OTRK):
“There is the 152nd Guards Missile Brigade in Kaliningrad, which has a dozen Iskander-M double-charge ballistic missile systems. Counting reloads, the brigade can fire two salvoes of 24 hypersonic ballistic missiles, which will land an average of six meters from the intended target at a distance of up to 310 miles [about 500 kilometers], for example, in northern Berlin. ”
The publication also says that the Russian tactical nuclear weapons stored in Kaliningrad are most likely intended for use with Iskander missiles, which can carry a nuclear warhead with a yield of up to 50 kilotons of TNT, as well as a conventional warhead.
Russtrat article goes on in detail.
—————————————–
https://nationalinterest.org/about-the-national-interest
https://cftni.org/
How do Empires collapse?
Slowly at first, (you are here) then all at once…
Plan accordingly, Russia is
Oh I forgot to add in my previous post that I believe the Nord Stream 2 is dead. I wouldn’t be surprised if Russia also believes this. Germany doesn’t have the gumption to challenge the Anglo-Zionists on this gas pipe line. Aiding Novorussia to expand into the rest of the Donbass and possibly southern Ukraine up to Crimea, pulverizing the Nazi army all throughout eastern Ukraine or wherever it is possible and establishing a cordon sanitaire (no fly zone) up to quite a few kilometers around Lugansk and Donetsk would be well worth the cost at the expense of Nord Stream 2. The strategic position of Russia will be greatly enhanced.
At this point Russia should stop natural gas into Ukraine. Let Germany and Europe get their expensive LNG from the US. If the Russians do this they will be conveying a very important message to Nato. Russian turned its cheek too many times hoping for reciprocity (Lavrov constantly calling the west “partners”). This time I believe Russia will not turn their cheek anymore.
Russia currently has its 2 pipe layers both the Akademik Cherskiy and Fortuna laying the final stretch of pipes for NS2 as we speak which can be tracked daily on public naval tracking sites so I’m not sure that you’re correct in that assessment that “NS2 is dead”
Neophyte, of course NS2 will be dead if there is a war in Ukraine. The EU, Nato and the US want the NS2 dead. Only Germany and only the industrial part of Germany wants and needs NS2. So by hook or by crook the EU, Nato and the US will do whatever they can to sabotage it. Do you really think that the German deep state and Merkel have the gumption to fight to the death the lineup of forces against the NS2. Maybe last year I wouldn’t have said this but my heart tells me that things have changed. This cancellation will be a great lesson to Russia and finally realize how foolish they were for so many years in turning the cheek.
They will finally fulfill the dream: Go East young Man!!
Gary: Did you hear this news? Biden is appointing a special Nord Stream Czar to kill the NS. i.e. a specialist who will know how to press Germany’s specific pressure points
https://www.politico.com/news/2021/04/07/biden-envoy-nord-stream-2-479706
Por mim, eles iriam até Tel Aviv (nadariam um pouco) mas, acabariam com o mal pela raiz.
Google translation,MOD:
For me, they would go to Tel Aviv (swim a little) but, they would end the evil in the bud.
1939 UkSSR line
There will be no war, it is all about NS2 no more.
Biden looks to appoint special envoy to kill Russia-Germany energy pipeline
The administration is vetting Amos Hochstein to negotiate the thorny geopolitics surrounding Nord Stream 2.
Hochstein, who stepped down from the supervisory board of the Ukrainian energy company Naftogaz late last year, declined to comment.
Bribing and blackmailing Merkel. Apparently Biden is so idiot that he does not know that 8 countries are already buying RUS Gas via Turkstream(not via ukrainistan anymore).
https://www.politico.com/news/2021/04/07/biden-envoy-nord-stream-2-479706
Finally someone that sees the truth. Too many people are making this much more complicated than it is. The Navalny poisoning and subsequent Russian riots were all about NS2. This sudden ‘out of the blue’ escalation in Ukraine is all about NS2. Period. NS2 has implications of a global magnitude. It brings Germany/Russia together and one step closer to ending the Anglo-Atlanticist Empire once and for all. It is an all important initiative arguably with greater impact than even the Chinese OBOR initiative. They will do everything within their power to stop NS2 even if it means coming close to WW3
I read the same…
it could SUPER charge the OBOR and all other eastern project
and spell the death of the king overnight…
That Europe pays for Russian gas in Euros and that Russia will accept anything but US dollars may be important. The US sees a major energy source abandoning the US dollar has in the past motivated many ‘regime change’ operations!
The answer is simple: Pro-russian forces should go and establish new lines as much west as possible, the only limitation being a capability to later on adequately resupply and fend-off guerrilla attacks.
Since demonization is already in full swing, Russia should openly join anyway. The stakes here are much larger than some underwater gas pipeline, or PR concerns.
NATO is already present in Ukraine and is only a matter of months before they formally take over Ukraine under its umbrella, the only thing stopping them is uncertainty about Russian response. If that response is anything but decisively military in nature, Ukraine goes to NATO, and soon.
To bomb all key military infrastructure and to take complete Black sea coastline is a must, the ideal solution would be, taking into account a huge teritorry that Ukraine is, to block key border crossings toward NATO countries and sealed them off, together with introducing air blockade.
After that, they can negotiate for as long as they want. Decades, if neccessary.
Hilarious:
“The White House is discussing the possibility of appointing a US special envoy for negotiations on the Nord Stream 2 project in order to close it. This was reported on Wednesday by the Politico newspaper, citing sources in the American administration.”
https://forex-demo-account.info/politico-white-house-may-appoint-a-special-envoy-for-nord-stream/
Joe Biden’s Ukraine Policy: A Repeat of George W. Bush in Georgia?
It is a bad idea for Washington to give its partners the impression that they have a blank check to go to war and expect American forces to come to the rescue if the fighting goes poorly.
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/skeptics/joe-biden%E2%80%99s-ukraine-policy-repeat-george-w-bush-georgia-182036
They can only go as far as the Russian air covers for them.
What they need is a fleet of Chinese drones (they have the most and could supply hundreds of them).
Then, they could clear out the nazis and mop up the broken Ukie military.
Likely, Russia wants Kiev “liberated” and the remnants gone to Lviv.
So, if they have the air cover, take Kiev, clean out everything from the Dneiper and all the south to Odessa.
But that means doing it with only standoff Russian help. A very large North Wind, probably, 10,000-20,000 would be needed.
It all depends on the initial destruction of the Ukies attacking and mounting an offense. The more destructive the first days go, the more Ukies killed and wounded, the more likely the LDNR army can take territory.
I will just tell you a story. A long time ago I was in the us army stationed in germany. I was with a pershing nuclear unit. We had missles aimed at Russia. We knew that Russia knew exactly where we were. First strike would take us out. I never understood the conflict. I grew up duck and cover in the 60’s. As a 19 year old I had no idea what we were doing. Now I am in my 60’s. I hold no anger to Russia. I only have anger to my own country. War after war..it never ends. The political situation in the USA is terrible.. I believe that the world will never be safe until the mafia government of the USA is defeated. How to achieve that I don’t know. The population of the USA is more worried about sexual identity. Sad out come for my country. I recently moved to Mexico to escape the insanity. I am looking to move to Russia in the future. If time allows me I will live in Russia. And if needed I will serve with the forces against the darkness that is enveloping the world.
Do not lose heart my friend. There is a way. Mass acts of civil disobedience. Like at Standing Rock.
Jr – More power to you. Good luck. God Bless!
How far Novorossia should go depends on:
a) How much infantry does Novorossia have, and
b) How much support will the Russian air force provide.
If we assume that Novorossia gets a sufficient combination of volunteers, defectors, new recruits, and fully trained CSTO infantry, AND the Russian air force strikes as thoroughly as they have in Syria, then Novorossia should go as far as Dnieper river.
However, if the Russian military remains as restrained as the last time then Novorossia will be lucky to keep its current territories.
I don’t believe Maripol should be taken. Bypass it. Open multiple axes from the existing line in a westward direction until the Deniepr River is reached, then move N-S with the river on the west flank until those units link up, enveloping what is left of the putschist forces.
Then crush those pockets.
This will leave Maripol inside Novorossian lines, to subdue later.
INDY
Donbass forces are facing an assault by armoured and mechanised forces on terrain suited to armoured warfare. Even if that force is degraded by ~50% — according to some reports — that’s still a fomidable task by itself. RF definitely will get involved in the defence once the UAF decides to attack and that’s when the UAF’s destruction starts.
On its own LDNR can’t do much advancing without RF support even if they have high fighting qualities, which I don’t doubt. Combined with RF, they should probably advance 30-50 km to the west. I think they need be able to hold ground and the further west they get, the thinner spread they’ll be and that’s a limitation. They’ll need to be able to be covered by fire from the east. RF will be able to provide a ‘cordon sanitaire’ by fire further west of the captured ground, from RF territory.
Pashinlin’s counter-offensive ought to be directed with an aim of capturing or investing Mariupol. It is a strategic city, a prestigious prize. Its loss to LDNR forces would play on the minds of UAF higher command — Zelenky’s opinion would probably not matter to the military once the real shooting starts and losses start to mount. A bonus would be the destruction of the rebranded nazi forces headquarted in the city.
Saker wrote about the possibilty of striking at Ukraine’s strategic and operational depths. I don’t know what he has in mind but I do think this time LDNR needs to bring the war to Ukraine, perhaps through irregular warfare (sabotage, blowing ammo dumps, mining, etc) in the Ukrainian rear, the nearer to Kiev, or the main cities, the better. Seven years is more than enough time to train, and indeed blood, such forces.
If this war comes about, then it seems quite clear that Russia will be heavily involved. If Ukraine is not completely subdued, then you can bet that it will become a NATO member state post-haste. I think that is unacceptable to Russia. Simply creating a “buffer zone” will hardly remedy that situation.
Russia has essentially broken off diplomatic relations with both the US and the EU. I would not be at all surprised if this is also the result of Russia knowing in advance what the plans were for a massive attack in Ukraine.
Given all this, it is my opinion that in the event of war, Russia will use its regular military forces and go to Kiev to clear out the scum that run the country. I think the entire Ukrainian navy will be destroyed and if NATO gets in the way, then they will be targeted, too.
I look for all Hell to break loose. Russia has my permission to take out the neocon neoliberal bastards behind this attack. If that can be done without reducing the US to a radioactive wasteland, they would be doing the Red States a big favor lol.
Well, who’s to say your scenario of RF marching to Kiev will not come to pass Perimetr? You may well be correct although that will probably mean general war and nuclear exchange. It all depends what RF’s war aims are. And that of FUKUS/Nato.
We’ll get a good indication of that if Zelensky’s pathetic plea to join Nato gets any traction with Nato states. Stoltenberg, US, UK, will want him in but I’m betting the rest don’t and the Ukraine will be hung out to dry. There’ll be lots of loud and noisy protestations and to-ing and fro-ing from Nato but Zelensky will be left to his own devices. Hope he has a one-way plane ticket to Canada in his pocket.
It is odd that a potential confontation between the two biggest nuclear powers on earth is getting so little attention unlike a punching match between Indian and Chinese soldiers on a godforsaken mountainside not so long ago. Even CGTN is preoccupied with cotton, the Olympics and covid vaccines.
Here in the US, there is essentially no news coverage of the situation in Ukraine/Donbass, except for the usual comments that “Russia is aggressively building up its troops to threaten Ukraine”. Obviously Russia has no right to move its troops around inside Russia, how dare them!! (sarc/:)
But because people do not hear or see any news about this, you cannot find anyone to pay attention to you when you talk about it. This is actually true for people in the “arms control” communities, people who consider themselves activists. I have been posting excerpts from these reports for days and basically am getting no response at this point. I am tuned out, they consider this “Russian propaganda” lol.
Goes to show how incredibly powerful the false narrative created by MSM is. People here in the Red States hate the Federal government and the criminals running it, they know the election was stolen, they see the demcrats passing one bill after another in Congress that will finish off any remaining protections previous provided by the US Constitution. Their jobs have disappeared and most are struggling just to keep a roof over their heads and feed their families. But even if they knew about what is going on in Ukraine, what exactly could they do about it? There is a fence around the US Capitol building with thousands of troops standing by,
They used to say “what if they gave a war and nobody came?” . . . now it is more like “what if they gave a war and no one heard about it”. Only in this case, I expect that if war comes, they may hear about it when their city gets vaporized or EMP takes out the US grid . . .
The entirety of Donetsk and Lugansk Oblasts need to be liberated.
Not only. Everything up to Lviv, Uzhorod, Ivano frankivsk also needs to be liberated.
Just a follow up to my post. I am a American living in Mexico to escape the insanity. I have never in my 64 years of life witnessed such a insane criminal government. That’s my country and I have fled. There is no push back from the people of the USA and I can only say that the majority of the people are totally brainwashed. Sad out come to a once great nation. What to do? I hate to think of the outcome of a war. Maybe the USA needs to have it’s nose broke.
While Novorossia army my content itself to liberating the remaining part of Luhansk and Donetsk Oblast with the support of Russian air cover, I am afraid the geostrategic implication of any large scale warfare in the east Ukraine will force Russian’s hand to intervene and occupy much more than it actually desires to. If you end up with US or NATO troops being station permanently on the right bank of Dniester and Odessa or Nikolayev that would be ominous for Russia.
So the question for Russia’s military leader will become how close do they want the NATO troops close to their border? On the border of the Donetsk oblast? On the Dniester River or somewhere west of Kiev? If Novorossia army recaptures the entire Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts but then that triggers a situation where the rest of Ukraine will become NATO country, I am afraid the Russians will have no choice but to establish the de facto border as far west as possible. How far west, is any one guess at this point? They have the means to capture the territory…. the challenge is how receptive the local population would be in some of these regions to the rule.
We must remember that the putchists quelled any resistance to their coup with unbridled violence.
Not for nothing were the protesters in Odessa literally rounded up and burned alive…
The same happened in Kharkiv.
The trigger for The Crimean Plebiscite was an incident where protesters from there were forcibly taken off their bus enroute home, and beaten severely.
We must remember that the Nazi thugs established road blocks nationwide where they extorted $$ from travelers and truckers, and threatened and killed any who disagreed with them.
So, the Novorossians may find the population friendlier than many here assume.
INDY
It should be resolved now. You can’t have a mad dog barking and biting you on your doorstep all the time: Either you force the dog owner to lock him up and keep him away from you or you liquidate him, but it can’t be an eternal situation, it’s not good for anyone, so much Because it can be a distraction from the dog owner to damage you in other points, or so that you do not focus on your development.
I also believe that the problem must be solved throughout the country (not forgetting that the Ukrainians are Russians who are held hostage), leaving no loose ends, uprooting the puppet government and purging its institutions. It is the opportunity to make it clear to the rest of the world that the nonsense is over and that they must start interacting as adults.
I am afraid it must be resolved, regardless of what the counterpart is thinking of doing, mostly because I think they are not thinking. It seems to me that NATO-USA won’t do much more than whine and curse, as always.
Russia should do what the Ukrainians have been trying to do, that is capture the border, the whole of Ukraine’s border including with the West, but never go deep inside Ukraine, then suffocate Ukraine like a python would do to it’s victim so they accept a peace agreement with permanent Russian troops stationed at the border.
All the intelligent Ukrainians have left the country. Tremendous opportunity for Greater Israel backed by Zelensky, Dimon, Schumer, Schiff, Congress, Raytheon, Roundup……
Speaking of what some think, I think that the masters of the USA are not in Israel (the Jewish people are also hostage to the beast), but in the global financial centers … They are the ones who are pushing the crises because they are staying in evidence for all that his paradigm of looting, usury, pillaging and clearly theft is what has the world in this state
LDNR forces must be brave and have a lot of heart but the chances for an offensive by themselves seem rather slim. They are on favorable defensive terrain that has presumably been well prepared and they are badly out numbered. Offensive action would need the help of terrain, timing plus maneuver and would probably look something like the American battle of Brices cross roads. Also the Ukrainian forces would have to make some seriously bad judgment calls. Of course, if the Russians commit to the ground all bets are off and the Ukrainian forces will be in a tight spot across the entire country. Either way, I don’t see how the Ukrainian armed forces come off the better in this one.
If Europe, Iran, Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, and China all pop off at once and in earnest, the US will find its Empire ruined all at once or will have to make difficult choices. A serious fight in multiple theaters would break an already very stretched military but US sea power would have to be dealt a terrible blow early on for long term success. Classic Behemoth vs. Leviathan battle. I think some Greek guy Thucydides wrote a book about this.
Here we go again…
US may expel Russian diplomats, impose new sanctions – media
Senior officials were expected to meet Wednesday to discuss what steps to take, Bloomberg wrote.
https://tass.com/world/1275421
Speaking of those who care about appearances, the USA, UK, and all who were once powers, have “thrown themselves into their pockets”, and completely ignored “international law” as many times as they have wanted, and the rest of the world. world but look the other way has had to swallow no more …
I was watching the movie “The White Tiger” once again – the movie director did a fantastic job to highlight the millenium old reality of anti-Russian anti-Orthodox (Christianity) posture of West Europe. Other slavic elites and aristocrats especially those from Poland, Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary happily collaborated with the Western germanic elites-aristocrats in lieu of a meagre share of plunder.
Link — https://youtu.be/qiGDJ5-dXaI
IMO, this time the OBJECTIVE IS NOT DIFFERENT. However, plot is a bit different – now Ukrainians (amplified modernised version of historical Kievan Russ) are pitted against Russians. Ukie military is 100% owned by the Anglo-Jewish world order, and they will fight till they get finished (50% of them would join Russian backed forces) – one can’t help such narcissistic sociopath nazi gangs! After the Ukie gang fails to do the job of ‘liberating Donbas’, NATO military may put boots on ground – for them, finally the hour has come for ‘Operation Unthinkable’.
If everything is logically analysed with open mind, the time has come for Novorossia (south-eastern region and south region of current Ukraine). Russian government needs to extend 100% support to LDNR forces to establish Novorossia. Let west and north-east regions of current Ukraine remain as the Ukraine .
Veteran Intelligence Officials Issue Letter To Biden Urging To Avoid War In Ukraine.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/veteran-intelligence-officials-issue-letter-biden-avoiding-war-ukraine?fbclid=IwAR1Z6FDjb0xL086pXZ3MP7bTI9DtCzU-1IOXeugEZpiJ8FijHFD_8aFHSKI
Biden wants to destroy Putin:
Biden Admin Plots Revenge On Russia
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/biden-admin-plots-revenge-russia-alleged-hacking-meddling
How far should the LDNR forces go? For me, the answer must lie within the realm of ethnicity and culture (language, history, religion, literature, music…even jokes). So, for example, if I were to get in a hypothetical car in Donetsk and make a hypothetical trip westward:
. where would I stop meeting predominantly Eastern Slavic people?
. where would I no longer hear much Russian spoken?
. where would I no longer meet too many people who honour the Soviet sacrifices of the Great Patriotic War?
. where would I notice that there are no longer so many Christian Orthodox churches?
. where would I stop meeting people who share my love for the works of, for example, Pushkin, Tolstoy, Babel or Platonov?
. where would I no longer expect to hear the music of Shostakovich?
. and where would I start to hear derogatory jokes about Russians?
Or, where would I meet the last person wholeheartedly willing to become a member of a political entity Novorossiya, and be actively committed to its future defence?
Any of these might be good places to stop. (btw if any of the questions betray my ignorance of Russian and Ukrainian ethnicity or culture please feel free to educate, rather than judge).
Thanks to Saker for these ongoing discussions. They are immensely informative.
It is a mystery to me, that I have gone from admiration to bewilderment, and perhaps to disappointment, as a pioneer Nation in science, arts, technology, philosophy, music, etc., it cedes sovereignty over and over again once the Anglos (like the Spanish), becoming – as someone said – their “poodles”.
And this is not from now, but has been coming for several centuries, and almost always as a spearhead to attack Russia. It seems that they have no paradigm.
The Anglos are so afraid of the Germans that they have done the unspeakable to keep them under their control and in their service, suddenly under threat of destroying their brilliant economy … The number of US military bases in their territory – as if it were a state failed – (I was going to say “banana”, but not even they have so many bases) it is not justified under any political, economic or security point of view: it is an occupying force, especially in light of the true causes of the 1st and 2nd world wars
The more I read on these threads the more I keep going back to root cause failure analysis. Ask why 7 times and it keeps coming back to the malignent influence of those who think they were chosen by god to rule the world.
Time for that first order problem to be focused on and confronted, globally. All others will then fall by the wayside.
How many times does history need to be repeated before humanity learns from it?
Strelkov has nothing good to say about Pushilin. The LDNR forces have been degrading since 2014, while Ukrainian forces have been preparing. That is an unfortunate reality. Just the mere fact that we’re talking about “LDNR” and not about Novorossiya, is a sign that not everything is in order in Donetsk and Lugansk.
Strelkov is a treasonous sellout and 5th columnist traitor
Strelkov is a Russian patriot, he has fought for Russia many times. His word is worth more than your insane drivels.
The Poles should be encouraged to grab their share of the spoils when Ukraine breaks up.
I suggest Russia end this situation for good this time. They need to cause the collapse of the Banderastan regime this time and its replacement with a neutral or even better,pro-Russian government.If Russia just saves Donbass and leaves the ultra-nationalist/fascist regime in power they will surely try to get NATO in Ukraine.And NATO may very well go in .That would be a horrible outcome for Russia.Removing that regime and replacing it won’t allow that to happen.
People will ask,how?By driving the Ukrainian military out of Donbass and calling for the opposition and the military brass to stage a coup.It will then be their job,maybe assisted by Russia.And certainly assisted by the LDPR forces to destroy any neo-nazi holdouts.Not using Russian forces for that dirty job.Russia can officially recognize the new government and warn NATO not to get involved.
If and when the LDNR forces launch an offensive with the Russian support, and the world witnesses a total collapse of the banderistan army, then why not push all the way to Kiev and liberate the entire country from the loath of the ukronazi gang . Most Ukrainians, I am sure, will support such a campaign.
it is a 2 Points Solution:
1.- Delenda est Ukraine!
2.- Grata es Novorossiya!
A troublesome interview from Donbass:
MILITARY SITREP FROM THE MAN HIMSELF – COMMANDER ALEXANDER KHODAKOVSKY
Alexander Khodakovsky: I do not rule out that we will have to act in conditions of being almost completely surrounded.
07.04.2021 19:51
Former Secretary of the Security Council of the DPR on the development and consequences of the possible offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Donbass
The military political situation in Donbass has been balancing on the verge of the resumption of full-scale combat for the last month and a half. The Kiev regime demonstratively withdrew from the Minsk agreements, intensified the shelling of the territory of the DPR and the LPR and the terrorist acts against the civilian population and is openly admitted in the smooth preparation for a decisive throw in order to clean the Donbass from the population. Everything goes to the fact that a great war may become reality in the near future.
Alexander Khodakovsky, the founder of the legendary ′′ Vostok ′′ team, shared his opinion on the possible Ukrainian offensive in Donbass and its consequences in an exclusive interview with News Front of the Security Council of the DPR.
– Do you think that in the near future in Donbass will happen what has been said for not the first year – a full-scale resumption of fighting and a Ukrainian offensive?
– My personal point is that this whole story is gradually moving towards the interchange. If earlier, in the previous aggravation, I was more aware of the moment of manipulation of the situation, now it seems to me that everything is really very serious, and the situation could at any time break the fuse. And we will simply receive a full-scale resumption of hostilities with the hardest consequences, especially for our territory. Because we will become the same killing field field on which two armies will converge. And since it is inhabited by people, and not somewhere there in deserted areas, people will suffer. And this is the hardest consequence that will come from the resumption of hostilities. You have to think about this all the time.
– If this happens, how do you see the development of the situation? Will there be military assistance to the republics from the Russian Federation and in what volumes?
– I can’t say anything affirmatively, but I hope this help will be provided. And the volumes will be enough to break the situation.
As for the situation, I predict, at the first stage we will, of course, suffer a very heavy burden and possibly lose some of our territories among those in operational space. If, as I believe, the enemy’s first task will reach the state border and create a hopeless political situation for Russia, and large cities will be processed in the second after the first task is solved when the resource is released and Russia’s reaction will be clear. Otherwise, the opponent risks tying up and losing a huge amount of living power and equipment in cities, which will then simply be cut off, as happened in 2014
In any case, I believe that those who monitor the situation and plan, I mean the Russian General Staff, understand perfectly what opponent should be dealt with, his potential and, therefore, calculate strength and funds. To overcome and at least have superiority in the potential. We hope that Russia will not leave us alone with the opponent, and the forces, if involved, will be enough to defeat the enemy and throw him to the maximum distance.
– The maximum distance possible, in your understanding, what?
– I can only assume and hope. But in my opinion, it would be optimal not to stop until the Dnieper. This would be a good help for us, a watershed in terms of holding the front line. If now the front line in our DPR and LPR 400 with extra kilometers, then in case of access to the Dnieper river border, the length of the front line will increase almost 3,5 times. Accordingly, you need to borrow somewhere else to form this front line and create a single defense system. And the water border in this sense will be a serious help for us.
And in fact, we are not making decisions there. Because in 2014, as soon as we went into the offensive, we also believed that we would not stop at the current borders of the DPR and LPR and will move on. But the political outlook ordered in its own way. How will happen in case we suddenly have to introduce serious resources and have to overturn the opponent, I definitely can’t speak because we already have experience that contradicts our logic of that time. According to our logic, we should have already been in Mariupol and Slavyansk. But there is a logic of another level that worked then. Maybe it will also work again. Therefore, it is difficult to talk about anything here.
– Zelensky said yesterday that Ukraine should join NATO asap. Is it possible in the most foreseeable future, and what is fraught for our situation?
– It’s impossible. There is no direct threat to collide with NATO for us and for Russia today. Both America and other NATO members will act on us in other ways, strangle us economically, which will possibly be as effective as a military collision. Because a military clash will be ambiguously perceived, given the lessons of the same Vietnam and the lessons of modern conflicts in Afghanistan and Iraq that America has joined. This also didn’t affect the state of affairs in the United States itself in fact. If you look at the statistics, only last year, I think 569 American soldiers committed suicide. That is, even in the US armed forces, there is a rather difficult situation.
Accordingly, America will not be involved in the open conflict. They can provide military technical assistance to Ukraine, advice, intelligence assistance will be provided, they have all the means for that. But they will probably not get involved themselves. And Zelensky is a fool, because this whole story in Ukraine, which turned out to be the loss of Crimea and Donbass for Kiev, began with the fact that Ukraine tried to join NATO and made an appropriate application. And to believe that joining NATO will remove Ukraine from this situation is complete stupidity, it’s like putting out a fire with gasoline.
– Last days NATO military transport aircraft has too much parted to Ukraine. What do you think they are the ones who are moving there? Is it military equipment, instructors or maybe even NATO military contingent?
– Instructors may be, the military contingent is unlikely. Some military equipment, some kind of weapon like ′′ javelins “, is also quite likely. But it should be remembered that before the ′′ javelins ′′ come into action against tanks, first ′′ twister ′′ and ′′ hurricanes ′′ will work, and what will remain of these ′′ javelin ′′ – a huge question. I don’t do cheap bravada, it will work both ways. But as long as it comes to hand-to-hand, a lot can change at the war theater. Therefore, let them drive. All this will go to eat our ′′ twister “, ′′ Grad ′′ and ′′ hurricanes “.
– In order for Russian troops to be guaranteed to help republics, according to various estimates, it takes approximately 12 to 24 hours. Will the forces of the DPR and the LPR be able to hold on to their positions for the necessary time before aid from the north?
– There will certainly be breakthroughs. You shouldn’t be fooled about this. The ratio of forces is not in our favor, and the opponent can reach our inner districts, I have no doubt. The question is, we need to maintain communication between large urban agglomerations such as Donetsk, Makeyevka and Horlovka, and also connect with the border in order to at least provide for some evacuation of civilians. It’s going to be very difficult though. If the opponent turns out to be in our rear areas, there are no guarantees that we will keep in touch with the border. And I don’t rule out that we will have to act for some observation time, I think, from a day or more, in a pretty full environment.
We may not let the enemy into major cities. Especially since I said, in my opinion, this will not be his priority. I think this will become a task after Russia’s reaction to Ukraine’s actions becomes clear. In case of Russian intervention, Ukrainian units better maintain maneuverability, and tie in city battles – it’s practically doomed themselves to a hundred percent environment, as it was near Ilovaisk and Debaltsevo when we created boilers. I mean, they’re unlikely to repeat such experience, but to see how events will develop and then make decisions… I think they have a plan written on how to step by step. But this is my subjective point.
Dmitry Pavlenko, especially for News Front
Alexander Khodakovsky
One wonders if there should be an evacuation of peoples well away from the front line…..for their safety of course but to also show to ukrops we are ready for you.
Troubling indeed Uncle Bob!
“In order for Russian troops to be guaranteed to help republics, according to various estimates, it takes approximately 12 to 24 hours. Will the forces of the DPR and the LPR be able to hold on to their positions for the necessary time before aid from the north?”
Is the above still accurate after all the recent Russian troop movements?
Ukraine is a failed state. It cannot feed itself, and is rapidly depopulating. It survives by courtesy of the IMF and its drip feeding, the latest input consists of a $5 billion ‘loan’. Anyone with any sense who lives in Ukraine wants to leave, especially young people. It has lost 10 million people since 1991, and the downward trajectory shows no sign of abating. And this is the state which is going to take on a military colossus like Russia! This is a rerun of the disastrous Charge of the Light Brigade by the British in the war is Russia in the Crimea in 1853-56
The regime is simply a stalking horse for US hegemonic ambitions, as is more generally the case with Europe.
Re Francis Lee on April 08, 2021 · at 3:54 am EST/EDT
“The regime is simply a stalking horse for US hegemonic ambitions”
A useful facilitator of deception is the popular conflation of an answer with the answer by many humans.
“Ukraine” is an albtross around the neck of “The United States of America” although not perceived to be so by some.
The some others who do perceive this in some assay include but are not restricted to “Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity”.
Investigation of the question “What ever happened to Stepan Bandera ? ” – in illustration of a mafia gambit of don’t do the hit, deliver the albatross to its opponents who can do the hit – may inform some possible options in albatross removal, whilst “Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity” seek to suggest alternative options for albatross removal which in their view will likely minimse blowback, as was the case with the Turkish missile removal after the “Cuban missile crisis”.
Resort to “intelligence” is useful in aiding purpose by increasing the noise/signal ratio, constrained by What are The United States of America and how are they facilitated ?
“There is opportunity as well as risk in the current friction over Ukraine. This crisis offers your administration the opportunity to elevate the moral authority of the United States in the eyes of the international community. ”
“Analysis” ignoring the opportunities of others is always ill informed, although prevalent with others schooled in the exceptionalism of belief in sole/prime agency.
Stop the Empire’s war on Russia?
Why?
“What’s implied is that Washington/Brussels don’t have a clear tactical, much less strategic game plan: only total narrative control.”
Leaving aside that in any interaction total control is never an option, the dispositions you describe afford significant opportunities for others whilst the opponents perceive that the dispositions afford flexible opportunities to them.
It is a failed state, but the little people in Ukraine struggling to survive, reduced to geopolitical pawns, have no time to play Bandera empire attack dogs.
They have a Slavic brother who can help to put bread on the table. RF has a development plan and Putin is about to unveil what some think is an ambitious Eurasian investment project.
Beyond borders, migrant work opportunities must be factored into a hearts and minds info war, and an exciting Novirussiya development plan needs to be articulated and presented.
When people see who actually cares about them, they will be less likely to remain as usury slaves in a failed IMF satrapy and more likely to defect to a new state that offers economic security and social mobility.
https://tass.com/politics/1275561
Russia needs more migrants to implement ambitious plans, Kremlin says
A third cataclysmic European war is just around the corner. Brought to you by your friendly, neighbourhood USA.
The stupidity of germany is unbelievable. After 2 devastating wars the still listen to there traitor- Leaders. Russia cannot accept a Nato-Ukraine. If Russia attacks, and i dont blame them, and if the Military needs to hit strategic targets get ready germany .Your transgender-army will cry. Shoud we send some toiletpaper from Austria? Unbelievable, no antiwar protest no peace-rally Nothing….
Enormous minefields in the DMZ would make it impossible for the LDNR forces to conduct that kind of operation except by breaking through the same corridors the Ukies intend to use.
Russia has the necessary equipment to open more corridors. But that would be time 2 of the war in Donbass.
Due to the minefields along the line of contact, LDNR cannot hope to conduct such an operation on their own. Clearing the minefields requires specialized equipment and the minefields are covered by both artillery and direct fire by heavy weapons.
LDNR has only one job. Stop the Ukrainian offensive from breaking through one of the mine-free corridors, or lure them through the corridor into a new cauldron.
If the war restarts then Russian forces can be expected to cross the border behind the Ukie forces, trapping them in a super cauldron.
The only force with the ability to take additional territory from Ukrainian control is Russia.
If Ukies start such a war, it can be expected that the minimum Russian involvement will be rolling the line forward to the Dneiper. This will not be done by LDNR units.
I don’t believe that Russia would move that far west. To avoid a wider war, I think, if crazy ukies do try to ‘neutralize’ the LDNR, Russia will – as they have stated many times – protect their citizens. I do believe that Russia would move to ‘liberate’ the LDNR, right up to the forward edge of the battle area, but no farther. To move farther would indeed impinge upon a sovereign state – I know, that is laughable – however it would greatly complicate matters.
When a sovereign state violates its signed Minsk agreements and commits atrocities against civilians, and then invades, the gloves come off, and all bets are off. If Russian forces are forced to enter Ukraine they will be demonized the same whether they go 1 mile or 100. So the most logical choice is to go all the way to the Dneiper because that is the most defensible border. Also it might be healthy to scare the crap out of NATO to discourage their warmongering.
Perhaps all the way to the western border since even Frau Merkel refuses to recognise the foolishness of bootlicking vis a vis the last two world wars.
Kozak: the beginning of hostilities in the Donbass from Kiev will be the beginning of the end of Ukraine
https://tass.ru/politika/11098963
https://translate.yandex.com/?lang=ru-en&text=https%3A%2F%2Ftass.ru%2Fpolitika%2F11098963
And here’s the sightly hysterical take on zerohedge:
Merkel Demands Putin Reduce Russian Troops Near Ukraine In Phone Call
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/merkel-demands-putin-reduce-russian-troop-build-near-ukraine
Meanwhile some actual kinetic demonstration of escalation dominance potential:
Russian Navy latest frigate holds artillery firings in Black Sea
https://tass.com/defense/1275687
While so many want this war to happen and take care of the problem once and for all, few are considering the end result. Whatever area of Ukraine remains, even a small area such as Galatia- it will join NATO and become a fortress for future aggressions against Russia. Imagine how many cruise missiles and tanks they could place there, not to mention an air force base complete with spy planes and bombers.
The only way to prevent this is to overtake all of current Ukraine, and completely destroy all its military bases and arms depots.
Russia could annex Zaporizhia, Kherson, Mykolaiv, and Odessa. The other oblasts east of the Dnieper could become part of the new country of DLPR (with a new and simpler name perhaps), and remaining western and central regions could become an autonomous demilitarized zone. Russia could enforce a no-bases, no-military, no-fly zone there for an indefinite time period. (Similar to what was supposed to happen with Japan after WW2, but devolved into what it is now. Hopefully with better success in this case).
Of course this is all just an idyllic scenario and wishful thinking, but short of something like this playing out I am sure a massive NATO base is in Ukraine’s future- somewhere, somehow.
The major force behind this war is not the Anglo-Zionist Empire. It is the Vatican. The Vatican is the hidden controller of the Latinate West. World War I was meant to destroy the German Empire and prevent German-Russian rapprochement. Certainly, England benefitted from this, but one must bear in mind that the City of London and the British monarchy are but tools. The Vatican has always controlled the various Protestant states as fake opposition. The Vatican harbours especial hatred for Germans because the Saxons resisted the Catholic Church’s Frankish puppet, Charlemagne. The Teutonic Knights were treasonous mercenaries acting at the behest of Charlemagne and the Church to sever historical ties between the Germans and Slavs. To do so the Church aimed to destroy Orthodoxy, Arianism, and paganism. The Church committed massive genocide of Germans, on a par with its genocide of Slavs. The Roman Church is the only thing that has prevented world peace for nearly two thousand years.
If Russia were truly serious about destroying this beast, it would have struck Rome and its financial network, particularly the infamous, Vatican-run, Swiss-Venetian (P2-Masonic) banks. These have formed the very base of the West’s globalist agenda since the Crusades. These banks ARE the West, period. The so-called Zionist bankers have always been fronts for the Swiss-Venetian oligarchy that established and controls the Roman Catholic Church. To destroy this oligarchy, and by association the Roman Church—the foundation of the Latinate West—one must destroy its financial basis. No one ever mentions nuking Switzerland or the Holy See, but arguably that should be done before even thinking about London, New York, or Tel Aviv. Actually, Russia should not merely nuke Davos and Rome, but also capture their smoking ruins and raise the Soviet hammer and sickle over their corpses, à la Berlin 1945. So the message should be loud and clear: Russia will not attack the rabid dog, but rather its creator and owner.
As far as the Ukraine is concerned: historically, everything to the east and south of Galicia/Volhynia was and is Russian. Moldova, the Baltic states, and Finland are linked to the Russians by ethnicity. If a nuclear war were to break out Russia, if she were serious about winning, would be readied to attack not just Kiev, but also advance on Scandinavia and Poland. However, Russia needs to understand that only a religious, messianic agenda can provide the impetus for the destruction of Satan’s throne. Mere economic or worldly motive cannot get the job done. Moreover, the enemy is in control of occult forces that go far beyond man’s ken. Yet this-worldly and otherworldly motives cohere in Eternity, the Eternal Now. They are part and parcel of the Whole. Holy Russia can only be sanctified by being Red Russia; Red Russia is Holy Russia: neither is separable. Unsurprisingly, the vast majority of ordinary Russians still harken back to Saints Stalin and Alexander Nevsky. Yes, the Great Patriotic War was and is truly a holy war, a war for Red and Holy Russia, under Saint Stalin’s mantle.