I just got back home for 30 min and I found out that Putin is requested that the referendum scheduled for the 11th be postponed. There seem to be some hints that Merkel and Putin have hammered out some common position including a round-table with all the parties present. Finally, the Russians are claiming that they have withdrawn the forces along the Ukrainian border.
Frankly, I am totally confused by that move but my first impression is that I don’t like it one bit.
But I am a slow thinker and I need to chew on this before coming to a conclusion.
Thanks a lot for all the replies to yesterday’s quiz. I will return to that topic tomorrow morning or possibly later tonight.
Stay tuned.
The Saker
I have big doubts about it too…and doubts about much more when it comes to the conventional analysis and resulting narrative. I’ve been feeling nostalgic as of late. I have
Georgia On My Mind.
Well, it isn’t possible to hold the referendum while military actions are carried out by the junta. People could not participate correctly; and the voting points would be easy targets for nazi violence and mass killings.
So, in the current context the referendum cannot be done correctly anyway.
Just canceling it would show the image of the junta Kiev having, by its actions, canceled it (which is the reality anyway, but perception is sometimes more important than reality), and so give good propaganda to the junta (the junta can claim “we win”) and bad propaganda for the resistance (junta can claim “they lose”).
Now; if Russia asks to cancel (or postpose, because actually it is just a postpose, people won’t abandon the idea of it) as a good will negociation move in favor of peace; then the resistance looks good (“we favour peace and do another goodwill step”).
As several people pointed out; time is ticking and is in big defavour of the junta. The Junta desperately needs war to mobilize its support.
Without a war the junta would not last more than a few months from now.
Remember: there won’t be any more gaz from june 1st unless it is paid in advance!
Luckily the West’s clairvoyants have all the answers;
Four Reasons Why Putin Pulled Back His Troops – http://finance.yahoo.com/news/four-reasons-why-putin-pulled-163900152.html
Russia’s Military Bear Is a Paper Tiger – http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Articles/2014/04/30/Russia-s-Military-Bear-Paper-Tiger
May all those who’re about to die, rest in peace..
*) Что сказал Путин и как это правильно понимать
http://rusvesna.su/news/1399481054
*) Эксклюзивное интервью Олега Царева «Русской Весне» как ответ на сегодняшнее заявление Путина
http://rusvesna.su/news/1399483335
*) Ukraińska straż graniczna: rosyjskie wojska nigdzie się nie wybierają
http://www.tvp.info/15102624/ukrainska-straz-graniczna-rosyjskie-wojska-nigdzie-sie-nie-wybieraja
Quote – “According to Tymczuk 200-kilometer zone of the eastern border of Ukraine’s Russian forces include about 38,000 soldiers.” What means there are no concentration groups along long Ukraine-RF border.
We have to see what the west is going to do, could be it is a move to save lives, or Putin just cave in. Wee will see
N-V
by delaying elections….Putin keeps the pressure on Kiev…he is in control…let things continue to boil….by having the election now….would mean things would rapidly become violent…come to a head and then be on to the next level…..what is the next level i don’t know nor does anyone else…but by allowing kiev to continue it’s crackdown on the population will only bring more support to Russia and to Putin….
Don’t worry, be happy because everything is in professional order.
Big surprise is coming for everyone, I have this feeling. It is the latest European and Euroasian team work.
Confucious is in work.
I have a number of thoughts about it, some of them kind of conflicting.
First thought was that Putin is working in the back channels.
Second, Russian govt. was shaken by the Odessa massacre and is just trying to stop the bloodshed for now, de-escalate.
Third, I’ve seen some comments about how E Ukraine was really not ready to do this referendum vote and it would have gone badly.
Fourth, I wonder if the leaders in E Ukraine will ignore this request from Putin and go ahead with some referendum votes anyway, which will make it very difficult for the West to keep claiming that Putin controls the groups in E Ukraine. There’s also the possibility that Putin is publicly asking them to delay but privately encouraging them to go forward with it (though I don’t think that’s likely).
He plans to pull the plug on the USD first! Nothing better than to fight a foe who can no longer pay their mercenaries …
@ Cold N. Holefield,
Per your link: “Can you imagine what the anti-American pro-Russian comment brigade at Moon of Alabama and The Vineyard of the the Saker would have to say about Saakashvili’s analysis?”
R: I do love art, but do not appreciate persons who use one short-haired brush to paint a complex picture depicting this wobbling world.
I want Peace, not Pieces.
“The activists and leaders of the Donetsk republic will soon have to decide – whether to perish while keeping their eyes fixed on Moscow, or to have a chance of victory through basing themselves on the social interests of their own population. They still have time to make this choice. But as each day passes, this time is running out.”
This is a very good article that sums up the dilemmas facing the south-east revolt:
http://links.org.au/node/3832
What Putin actually said:
“We have been told that our troops by the Ukrainian border are a concern – we have withdrawn them. They are now not near the border, but at locations where they conduct regular drills at ranges,”
Mr Putin is certainly a considerate man, caring for the delicate feelings of the Ukrainian regime and its backers!
In my view, the troops were brought close to the border to attract attention, which they did. What did Putin want to distract attention from? Something that no no longer needs the distraction caused by the troops close to the border? Hmmmm?
May 9 parade of “defeat” for Putin? hard to believe ..
If this is indeed a tactical appeasement of the “West, Inc”, I hope Putin has carefully considered the political consequences of this step. And I really hope he hasn’t simply sold East Ukraine out. That would be “cruel and unusual.”
P.S. I admit I am as clueless as the next guy, of course.
This could have one of several explanations, or a combination of them:
1. Putin is weak, a fraud, and a traitor. After encouraging people to rise up, he is having second thoughts and is ready to throw them under the bus. In such a case, he is toast, and his legacy will be forever tarnished, if not completely destroyed in Russians’ eyes.
2. Russian intelligenece is finding that the support for the “rebels” is not overwhelming, and/or the referendum logistics are far from acceptable level. More time is needed for proper organization, as well as for “educating” convincing the population.
3. Russians don’t want any decisive moves before Putin’s visit to China later this month. Chinese may have concluded that Russia has nowhere else to go and are driving hard bargain on Russia’s energy supplies, and other issues. Therefore by making an overture to the West, Russia is improving its negotiating position.
4. It’s a ruse. Moscow simply wants Kiev to implicitly recognize “rebels” by entering into negotiations with them, and thus transitioning an acute condition into a chronic one, to be sorted out later.
5. Moscow wants to get paid for its gas supplies. Donetsk and Lugansk are major consumers of Russian gas, and if they declare independence, Ukraine may refuse to pay for them.
Who knows what it is, but Putin is clearly running a risk of being too cute. If his newly-found “flexibility” is just a cover for cowardice, he won’t have friends at all. His enemies will hate him as usual, and his followers will condemn him and turn away in disgust.
Him…,when did president Putin encourage Ukrainians to ride up ?
russia is a hopeless case. putin obviosly didnt learned nothing form the sad case of serbia. but, even serbia was living years under heavy sanctions and didnt give up so easily…it seems like how putin understands international politics as some sort of beauty contest. it is a desperate try to be liked by the western countries, to be respected by them, to be treated as equal…here is news flash for you: russia will never be treated as equal nor like country with human beigns. i think most of the western countries would like to see colective suicide by russia, and even then they will not be satisfied. the same thing happened in former yugoslavia: serbian invasion, remove your troops, participate in farsical elections, dont use force, just lay down and expect to be killed, you dont have right for self defence…if russia thinks how “the international community” would retreat sanctions after some elections in ukraine, oh boy, you dont see half of it! it will be followed by stronger and stronger ultimatums and more and more insulting demands…i watched putin’s press conference in belgrade couple of years ago and noticed one big thing, which seems like ordinary and nothing unusual. EVERY member of the russian press entourage, probably a 100 of them, carying apple something, be it ipad, macbook air or iphone…no single windows, android, or anything else. so what, said somebody, it’s a usual journalistic tool. maybe, but for me it shows deep inferiority complex and desire to look as westerners as possible. instead of trying to overcome west in design or technology, russians are just like everybody else, blind westren fashion followers. in short, russia is trying to hard to be liked by the west. it will never happened. russia will be treated as enemy until the end of the world…
Why are you referring to ‘western countries ‘ when you mean western political parties? Not a good sample of your political astuteness !
How is russia ‘a hopeless case’? R u so keen to launch ww5?
Seems odd.
Dear The Saker,
Here is the article in VOR:
http://voiceofrussia.com/news/2014_05_07/OSCE-ready-to-coordinate-settling-of-Ukrainian-crisis-OSCE-chairperson-8781/
and this one:
http://voiceofrussia.com/news/2014_05_07/Putin-backs-Merkels-proposal-on-roundtable-meeting-on-Ukraine-7295/
Putin’s move was based on getting the Kiev and S/E to the table direct and therefore saying to postpone the referendum until those meetings take place.
I think we all know the USG won’t want this but it will expose them….this will also start to ensure cracks in the EU – those who don’t want war and are pushing back etc.
Rgds,
Veritas
Just by judging on Kiev’s reaction to that proposition it shows that Putin has touched a sensitive nerve. Kiev far more prefers a bellicose Putin. A Putin showing that he is open to negotiations in presence of the director of the OSCE plays against Kiev’s expectations.
I think Putin’s move is good.
1) Moving the referendum gives logical consistency and more reason to the demand of postponing the may25 elections. Otherwise people could ask “why did you support may11 elections but not may25 elections?”
2.1) If referendum is not postponed then it shows that Russia is not in control of resistance.
2.2) If referendum is postponed then it shows that resistence are reasonable people (ergo not terrorists) which whom negotiations are possble, and it gives less reason for Kiev to not negotiate with them, and even less reason to just bomb them.
3.1) More talks (EU, Russia, Ukr, USA) will be held and Russia needs to create a solid foundation where they can say “look we did do concrete steps toward de-escalation”.
3.2) We want the resistance to participate in the talks and their participation will become more likely if they make a gesture that looks like de-escalation.
4) Under current circumstances a referendum is impossible anyway. Russia can’t accept the results anyway. If Russia accepts result of may11 referendum then people will ask why they don’t accept results of may25 election. After all the conditions in both may11 and may25 voting are similar.
Putin get through the MSM when he give order of retreat of his forces at the border to Ukraine and the postpone of the election. But what i understand are both fictions. What i understand was there not any build up of forces and Putin has no control of the time for the elections, all are the perception the west have made up. Putin have just started playing along with wests charades. This will make Kerry splash in ketcup.
Putin is not calling for the delay of the Maidan election. Formally, he is putting conditions on it, but he has no more reason to expect them to be adhered to than the Geneva conditions for deescalation.
Possibly Putin hopes that Poroshenko or whoever will be easier to deal with. I don’t think he has any real reason to think so, it’s just wishful thinking.
The oligarchs are not in a position to kick out the neofascist allies, they have wrecked the country so badly and are so incapable of acting with restraint, they no longer have enough support to enforce austerity for the EU. That’s why they had to turn to the neofascists in the first place. Also, Kyiv lost control of Lviv etc. long before it lost control of Donetsk. They just turned a blind eye. Dmytro Yarosh is ensconced in Dnepropetrovsk under Kolomoysky, who knows how much say so they have there. And Odessa? Well, we’ve seen how weak their grasp on Odessa is.
I disagree that time favors the collapse of the neofascist cause. It can only be replaced by forces with a popular program. Confusion about separatism and Russian union and Yanukovych has been fosted by Putin and the Crimean annexation. This insistence on dropping political opposition will finish the resistance.
If Russia now has Germany on side then it will be a monger term strategic move to ensure the Eurasian trade block that excludes the US.
This is the reason Russia will NOT be drawn into intervening militarily in Ukraine. Covert ops, special forces, psyops and whatever else maybe. But there will be no military from Russia without a UN mandate.
The US game is falling apart as it always would.
None of the EU countries can afford to engage Russia through NATO despite the burning intention of the US secret govermment to do so.
The current move may seem odd at this point and self-defeating on a domestic basis but the bigger picture shall soon become clear and it will not include the US in any meaningful way.
To me this another chess move by
a master player…..we shall see
how it evolves..
Just random musings here, but Saker, your unease at what I thought was kind of a brilliant move in Putin’s part has me pretty rattled. Especially since I’ve been seeing him more and more as the little Dutch boy trying to stop the sea from rolling in by putting his fingers in the holes in the seawall. I’ve also wondered for some time now about what Israel will do as we get further into our financial collapse, and have been watching her, well, bifurcated approach to Ukraine with no little concern. So when I read somewhere today about Gen. Jack Weinstein having been put in charge of our nukes, I Googled him. Now maybe I’m unduly paranoid, but wouldn’t you think Wikipedia, if not the official U.S. Air Force site would mention when and where he was born instead of simply starting in 1982?
So now I’m really wondering if we haven’t entered some sort of new era, paradigm, whatever you call it? I’d put rough markers at Yeltsin, then 9/11, and now maybe a new stage where — and I’m choking here — the Zionists aren’t just behind the scenes buying off pols and pulling the strings, but they’re really totally running the show.
It is quite obvious to me from beginning that it won’t be a good idea to take Ukraine at this time for Russia. And Putin doesn’t want it, too much troubles, too big political liability and too big financial burden. Russia will be better off to let the West to take that burden and responsibilities for now.
Pepe Escobar has a great column today about this situation. It seems like a logical explanation of what Russia is up to.
http://rt.com/op-edge/157308-ukrainian-crisis-imf-loans/
the people in the South East do not have to go along with it. If they do not, that proves they are not in Russian control. Whether that is a deliberate calculation on Putin’s part, who knows?
The German government is desperate to distance itself from the US.
German public is fully aware of the US instigation of the crisis in Ukraine and the tipping point in Germany is quickly being reached.
Elections are looming for both the EU and Germany.
Merkel has that firmly in mind.
The Germans (in broad terms) consider themselves closer to Russia than to the spent US empire. They know the sun is setting over the fools in Washington and want no further part of it.
Trade and commerce is vital to Germany – the type that will flow from the Eurasian trade alliance. Germany cannot afford to miss out.
Bild recently published an article about the coup and Ukraine crisis that made reference to the CIA controllers – undoubtedly information leaked by the German government through the security/intelligence services.
This is a sure sign that all is not going to plan for the US controlling elite. Their heads will be spinning as they expected Russian troops in Ukraine by now.
Oh the irony…
Putin is requested that the referendum scheduled for the 11th be postponed.
NATO/EU terrorist state will strike with new sanctions as an answer.
Then today, out of the blue, Putin announced that the troops would retreat.
Russia must pull its troops behind the Urals, otherwise NATO-EU will introduce more sanctions.
Saker, me too.
Look at this photo of him in the (rightist, and follower of the official imperial script) El Mundo newspaper
http://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2014/05/07/536a4abc22601df84d8b457b.html
I don’t like his face a tiny bit. He looks defeated…
and note how this paper announced his move: “Putin says for the first time that he supports the presidential elections in the Ukraine”
I couldn’t believe it, so I checked out the Kremlin’s site and RT. Actually they quote him saying “this is the way to go…” etc., which is slightly different.
However… he asked the federalists to put off the 11th may vote. I hope they won’t
… and he withdrew the troops from the border with the Ukraine.
So, three moves on a row, that I don’t like.
I wonder if Victoria F***k the EU Nuland’s last menaces might have had something to do with that.
Who knows. There must be huge pressures behind the curtains.
China has been most clear today declaring that she opposes US sanctions against Russia “with any pretext” ( http://en.itar-tass.com/world/730753 ) and has called upon the US and Russia to “remain calm and moderate” and start a political dialogue to promptly ease the tension.
What China says really matters, and matters much more than anything the Nulan needs to vomit on a daily basis.
In either case this is not “my” Putin. If I cannot understand this issue better in the next few days, he would have lost some points before my eyes. So, I’ll remain faithful to “my” Fidel, who endured tens of years of sanctions, a few kilometers away from the empire, till he got this one appearing as it is: as much ridiculous as arrogant and inept and brutal, voting every year isolated in the UN, with the sole company of the Marshall Islands and Israel.
((*.*))
Why is it a mistake?
What has Kiev accomplished so far except killing some soldiers and civilians, enraging the Donbass and Odessa populace, and showing its true face?
Do you expect sudden victory by a Ukraine Army unwilling to fight?
“Four Reasons Why Putin Pulled Back His Troops – http://finance.yahoo.com/news/four-reasons-why-putin-pulled-163900152.html“
IF they’ve moved, I doubt if they’ve gone very far.
I have no reason to doubt Putin. I have much faith in him. There is a strategy here for sure. This is not weakness. He will bring about the best possible outcome. I have confidence in this.
Maybe it would be too hypocritical to justify an eastern referendum as legitimate during the current military operations and then it two weeks condemn a general election under the same conditions.
Also probably if the eastern referendum went ahead as scheduled, the Kiev junta and Right Sector thugs would do everything to stop it and there would be more massacres.
Putin has a plan. We have to wait and see…
M.
I just happened to be watching CNN for a few minutes in a public location today when they reported on Russia’s move. The title in bold letters was “Putin Caves“. This was followed by the anchor, Jake Tapper, stating that he had contacted sources in the Pentagon who said that Putin was lying and the troops were still there. The thrust of the bullshit piece was that Putin can’t be trusted.
This reminded me of another piece on the CNN weeks ago in which the headline read: Putin Blinks. This was the day before Crimea seceded and Russian special forces moved in.
Do you know about “hundred of tanks” which are transported across neutral Áustria and Hungary. It was mentioned in some diary (Au)?
Putin is giving Kiev more rope to hang itself.
1. elections take place.
2. pro-kiev gov’t wins.
3. austerity.
4. winter 2014/2015, austerity is unbearable the East declares independence, but now supported by a lot of currently undecided people.
result: independent East with a lot less bloodshed, bankrupt Western Ukrainian rump state that’s teetering on the verge of collapse and threatened by an ultra-nationalist coup.
GGreetings from Singapore:
Withdrawing the Russian troops from the border and asking the Federalists to postpone the referendun, this in conjuction with willingness to have a roundtable ‘arranged’ by Germany & Osce could be a move to isolate US and let ‘Germany/Switzerland’ take the lead. Of course, the Kiev junta will not cooperate (and possibly the U.S will try to sabotage it by placing stricter/higher demands on Russia, they know Russia will reject).
If the outcome of this is:
1. The Kiev junta seen as un-cooperative.
2. U.S seen as un-cooperative
3. Germany comes closer to Russia
4. Time was gained which :
a. Ukraines is closer to economic collapse
b. Federalists gain further support within Ukraine.
I have no doubt that Putin knows what he is doing.
His reason for delaying the referendum in Donbass is because he is worried about what will happen to Russians and Russian speakers in other areas of Ukraine.If Donbass separates then the Russians in northern areas will be massacred. Putin wants to end this crisis with one blow. Maybe this is impossible though. I think May 9th will be most important sign of what will happen. It is entirely possible that Russian WWII veterans will be slaughtered in a city like Odessa and Kiev, then all hell will break loose.
Saker, this is really not surprising. Here’s what we got:
1) Contrary to upbeat reports, the local population of Donbass is NOT turning out in droves to oppose the junta troops;
2) The local militia command is acting either very unprofessionally or is putting up a pretense of fighting (unlike some of its troopers). Same, btw, goes for the junta troops. Moreover, the numbers of militia fighters do not seem to reflect the general population’s willingness to join the fight (see p. 1).
3) The Donetsk Republic administration structure is non-existent. There are no established organized local structures capable of ensuring the proper course of the referendum, should it take place. Results wouldn’t be verifiable and the referendum could therefore be easily called a sham.
4) Even if the results could be verified, given pts. 1 & 2 there is no guarantee that the referendum will produce results reflecting a strong support for federalization. What makes it even worse is that –
5) There is apparently no consensus in Donbass as to its future status. Resisting the junta may be the main unifying factor there.
The Russians have already bluntly stated that in the Crimea, popular sentiment was repeatedly verified before they took action. I do not doubt that they did the same in the Donbass. Seems that the results disappointed.
Like I stated before, the Russians will not stick their neck out for a population that doesn’t seem to know what it really wants and is liable to change its opinions on a whim. At this point, sadly, the majority of people in the Donbass don’t seem to care much at all.
BOPOH
@Saker, here’s another way of looking at Putin’s latest move… see article below.
If you think about it, what he’s said gives him a lot more options, for example; he can now ‘reluctanctly’ offer the newly independent Donetsk assistance on humanitarian grounds if they request it… despite his ‘reservations’ ;-)
The Next Big Catalyst: East Ukraine May Be Officially Indepedent In Seven Days
Update: moments after we posted this, Putin did his best to bring attention to just this matter:
PUTIN CALLS TO POSTPONE MAY 11 REFERENDUM TO EASE UKRAINE TALKS
And naturally, since there will be no delay as Kiev does not even bother to discuss the referendum while Donetsk will push on but certainly aware of Putin’s distance-providing “reservation”, Putin will “sadly” have to accept the referendum results.
* * *
The Geneva de-escalation lasted one day. The latest “Putin de-escalates the OSCE” gambit which served its purpose to send spoos higher by 6 points, lasted minutes. To wit:
PASHYNSKYI SAYS UKRAINE’S ANTI-TERRORIST OP WILL CONTINUE
PASHYNSKYI SAYS FOREIGN EXPERTS INVITED TO ODESSA TO PROBE FIRE
And the most “de-escalatory” statement of all:
PASHYNSKYI: ALL SLOVYANSK MILITANTS WILL BE KILLED OR DETAINED
So much for that particular distraction.
However, focusing on what is actually important and market-moving (or will be with a 4-6 week delay in this rigged, non-discounting, broken market) and what most are ignoring for now, is that as previously reported on several occasions, East Ukraine is about to become the next Crimea, following an indepedence referendum that is set to take place in the self-proclaimed Donetsk people’s republic on Sunday May 11.
What happens then?
Look no further than the Crimea case study:
1. Donetsk declares independence
2. Kiev, the west and NATO condemn the results, sternly refuse to accept the outcome, and issue more sanctions against Russian politicians and oligarchs
3. Newly “independent” Donetsk requests military support from friendly Russia to defend its population, and the Russian tanks roll across the border
And as other regions in east and south Ukraine follow in the Donetsk’ footsteps, assuring Russia a land connection to Crimea and cutting off Kiev from the Donbas industrial zones and the Slavyansk shale gas, Putin wins again.
Link to full article:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-05-07/next-big-catalyst-east-ukraine-may-be-officially-indepedent-seven-days
It looks like what they call in chess a gambit.
What has Putin really given up? Troops can be moved back very quickly if things go sour. The referendum couldn’t really go forward in a war-zone anyway.
I agree with some of the other posters that a back-room deal with Merkel may be behind it.
I have noticed that official US comments have been uniformly negative. They are not conceding an inch. It may come back to bite them.
From the link above provided by Anonymous (Exclusive interview with Tsarev for today’s Putin’s statement http://rusvesna.su/news/1399483335), Tsarev basically says that Putin is the greatest international gamer, and he has much more inputs to make decisions.
Also, he says that too much should be done to postpone the referendum. He said the people are ALREADY dying for referendum, it is all political games while the referendum is a question of “war and piece” for the people of Donbass.
So, apparently this deferring is not going to happen.
I personally think from political standpoint while Putin calls for peaceful way, he technically cannot support the referendum during actual combat actions.
Hi Saker,
Maybe you’ll find an answer in this article?
http://personalliberty.com/false-eastwest-paradigm-hides-rise-global-currency/
M
The other ‘anonymous’ nails it: “Well, it isn’t possible to hold the referendum while military actions are carried out by the junta. People could not participate correctly…”
So this would not have been a good card anyway. Now, once more horrid stuff goes down, the Russians can send tanks instead. These tanks would then protect the referendum.
Anon is right that in the current circumstances a referendum can’t be carried out in a way which is acceptable for other nations. In particular as there won’t be any third parties watching. Right sector might plan some surprises to disturb the event, etc. etc. At the end of the day it would have been a symbol only.
However, in my opinion one thing has been a bit inconsistent lately:
Putin and or Lavrov talking of a federalisation as aim for the future Ukraine.
On the other handside the wording of the referendum which is about state autonomy. All this talk about independency simply didn’t seem to be consistent with the wish for federalisation.
Of course the Southeast might have been encouraged by the ‘Novorossiya’-talk during the annual TV-Show, but then Putin had to find a way to bring them back to the federalization-idea without discouraging them. By asking for a postponement he is killing two birds with one stone. The ball is now with the Ukrainian interim-government …
Maybe even three birds …
since he is taking away a possible pretense for further sanction.
he is playing the ball to kiew, and the call to delay the referendum is of course only valid if the regime in kiew stops the “anti-terror-operation”- and they might accualy have done that, at least in sloviansk from what i have heared.
i personally think that if kiew is now forced to halt the “anti-terror-operation”, its a win for russia. (but i highly doubt that kiew will do that). in my opinion, the regime must eliminate ALL opposition, in all parts of the country, have total controll over all media, all local security forces and the electoral process in order to stay in power in the long term. if they fail to do that, they will eventually fall, sooner than later.
the fact that the press is starting to call it a victory could accually be a sign of capitulation- after the crushing defeat in odessa. yes, odessa was a defeat- it was the stalingrad of the “euromaidan” crowd.
i think that a federal ukraine, just as putin said all along, was the strategic goal. why? because i think it might still be possible to just turn the whole thing around an get ALL of ukraine into the eurasian union, except galicia. if not, the federalized southeastern regions can still declare independence later- which is much easier if there is an elected local body that could do this (instantely, without a referendum- see kosovo, where also just the regional parliament had a vote) – they must have authority over a police force (this would be one of the most essential parts of a federalized structure).
remember 2004? the enthusiasm for any european adventures droped from about 50% to less than 20% after timoschenko came to power. this time, shit already got much worse. the regime needs war to stay in power. if russia is able to deny that war, if the “seperatists” become “federalists” again, the regime will lose.
it seems obvious to me that the campaigns in the south-east were not planned by professionals- it was a real uprising, from local people, without professional support from russia. it was not supported by local oligarchs, they alredy voiced social demands that would accually be highly popular (not among the oligarchs, though) if presented in a professional campaign! if they were able to compete in a fair political environment, they will win.
because of that, i think that kiew might come to the conclusion that hey have to go full genocidal. but the ball is in their court now.
Doubt is usually a pre-requisite for catalysing new thinking. Confusion is normally a precursor of doubt.
Confusion is enhanced by catalysing doubts that others can assuage with their own pre-judgements i.e. prejudices.
Ukraine is unable to pay gas debts or to ignite industrial production, or mining, or jobs, or fulfill pension obligations. No more free gas in the near future. Ukraine is broke even with IMF scheme. The economy will collapse without gas or without political stability. Putin’s pull back of Russian military from Ukraine borders is a strategic move, so the Kiev fascists will drown within their own evil actions for the world to see. Now Ukraine people must meet their fate and stand up to the occasion. Ukrainians turned their back on Russia 20 years ago; now they have to make a choice. Ukrainian must see and feel what it means to live in a fascist environment to realize their obligations. If the Ukrainian military people does not have pride of their country, their culture, their history, why Russia has to take the initiative? I see a surprise around the corner though. The western media is totally confused, so are the neo-cons trying to read a chess move.
Here is one way of looking at it:
The original referendum plan was simply to vote and somehow miraculously become independent of Kiev. Today the referendum is less important. The Donetsk People’s Republic has established itself, taken over much of the local administration and just about won its war for independence. It will not go away simply because a referendum is canceled. On the contrary, the people’s republic will continue strengthening its institutions.
Where the referendum would be needed is for Donetsk to seek international recognition. In the worst case Russia would have to decide whether it will recognize Donbass independence an May 12th! This would be far too early for Russia to make the decision. As I said in a comment here earlier, it may have been the delaying of Slovenian independence by three months that led to the total breakup of Yugoslavia.
Saker
The Russians are working on ways to avoid the two extremes you described in your previous article here.
Very doubtful antimaydana controls nearly enough ground to pull off an independence referendum. So it is kind of a moot point right now. Antimaydana wont be disarming, that is the important thing to realise.
Pulling troops from the border? Doesn’t matter. The zionazis wont invade Russia.
Getting the banderivtsy to the negotiation table with antimaydana buys the latter time. And might help any Ukrainians currently in the Kiev regime establishment who are having doubts the zionazi way is the way to go. Such as the wavering military. If they can get the banderivtsy to pull their “troops” back and lift the sieges, that will be a great help to the locals.
There were probably some backroom deals. The prisoner exchange is a good thing. All in all, I don’t see any real negative side to it. The Russians have been constantly pushing for a negotiated, peaceful settlement in the Ukraine, and for measures designed to stop zionazi violence there. If the independence referendum vote takes place now, it probably wont stop the banderivtsy, and might even make them more determined to terrorise. And since it really wouldn’t apply to more that a few cities and towns, at most, it wouldn’t give the Russians the legal means to help out the way they could in Crimea.
This is a moral and political war first and foremost. One of the keys aims of Russia is to ‘wedge’ Germany from the US. But that takes time.
So you can see this sort of thing (and there will be more) as tactical manoeuvring within the overall strategy.
Things in the Ukraine have to get a lot worse, and have to be seen as being caused by the Ukrainian Govt, to create the right political environment for further action.
I’ll stand by my earlier prediction, things will roll along in this sort of vein for the next couple of months before the real crisis hits.
There can be no backing down now, Hague (UK Foreign Minister) has stated clearly that this is a war to the finish as far as the US and UK are concerned. This will be well understood by the Russian Govt.
Note the major escalation that he announced, planning to ban Russia from the OECD… that’s a big one, a real big one.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/may/07/russia-fomenting-disorder-ukraine-election-william-hague
“The foreign secretary added that the possibility of the permanent presence of larger numbers of Nato forces in eastern Europe should worry Russia. “It is moving forward in a way that should worry Russia in the long term … There will be Nato countries that increase their defence expenditure, that see a revitalised role for Nato. Yes, we will reduce our energy dependence on Russia in western European countries. We will exclude Russia from the G8 and the OECD. Taken over the next decade these events will have a major effect on Russia.”
Russia’s objectives:
1) Secure Crimea: achieved
2) Avoid Ukraine slipping into Nato…..
3) Protect the Russian Ukrainians…..
4) Avoid to get dragged in a new “Afghanistan”……
5) Avoid to take care of Ukrainian financial disaster and of the economically broken Western Ukraine
6) Trigger a pro-Russian self feeding/expanding movement in eastern Ukraine: achieved
7) Force the Eu to squander money in helping a the hopeless Ukraine that they had broken=drag the Eu INSIDE Western Ukraine.
USA (or, better, their puppeteers) objectives:
1) Expel Russian fleet from Crimea: failed
2) push the world from loathing the US/Uk to loathing Russia: in progress, thanks to the MSM’s “one sided view”
3) Herd the Europeans back in submissive status under the US “protection”: in progress
4) Drag Russia inside Ukraine in order to enhance point 2) and 3) and to punish it economically: not achieved
The whole purpose of the Russian Military build up in the east was to either achieve:
Plan A) Cause panic in Kiev and obtain a bloodless federalization of Ukraine: failed
If this would not work:
Plan B) Demoralize Ukriane army, instill fear and force the collapse of the Ukraine Military: mostly achieved (in fact the Kiev “coup” forces are at their third try now, in trying to cleanse the east, and had to purge and reform three times their armed forces, this time bringing mostly right sector elements to fight)
+ give confidence to a pro federalization movement: achieved
If this did not work (but apparently it did)
Plan C) Invade, either partially or completely
So we are now after achieving Plan B).
Kiev was not achieving any easy victory in Sloviansk and was risking to inflame also the South, so Putin grabbed the moment, gave them a way out that also allows the politics to work….and we can go for another round of cards, or another phase in the chess game.
There is currently NO NEED for more blood.
Regards
HG
1.the deal with china is coming this may
2. russians fight wars in november not may
3. watch syria
4. there is nothing to win in ukraine, this conflict is about who is going to loose less..
5. time is working for the party less involved in ukraine.
It seems to me that Russia is the new Carthage.
Do you remember the Punic wars and the Roman’s demands?
Rome asked more and more demands and at the end Rome attacked Carthage.
NATO/EU is a terrorist state and wants to wipe Russia off the map.
It is not necessary to name USA because America is the part of NATO.
A much bigger game is playing out here – Vladimir Putin and Sergei Lavrov are cutting Obama and Kerry out of the loop, while laying the responsibility for Ukraine’s chaos at their door steps. – see yesterday’s “white paper” foe example.
Make no mistake- there are those in the American foreign policy establishment that seek armed conflict with Russia and hoped to provoke it
This is not in Europes interest and nor is sanctioning Russia for what it is not responsible for
What has happened in Ukraine and The USA’s involvement seems almost blasphemous to me.
When Vladimir Putin was in Kiev last year it was to celebrate 1250 years. Since the baptism of the Rus an event that unites us.
When Joe Biden was there a few weeks ago he brings civil war, death and disharmony
Anyway we all seek a quick fix using guns, I suspect a slower fix, led by Russia and the wisdom of people like Sergei Lavrov is under way and that the USA is being cut out of the loop as the resolution is developed in Europe by Europeans under Russian guidance.
Annon Mongoose said:
Dear Saker,
Response to your “I have big doubts about the wisdom of Putin’s latest move:
Enjoyed reading here for only 3 weeks. You are astute in military analysis and geopolitics.
Imho, Mr. Putin remembers the agreements of February and April. Mr. Putin’s latest move is dubbed in legal and economic circles a brilliant legal and economic strategy.
The current Ukraine adventure is a debacle for the underwriters. At the core, it’s all Economic. I posted in the other thread @ 18:35 the article posted at Foreign Policy; “How Putin is Reinventing Warfare. Not too complimentary but some nuggs. Mr. Jim Sinclair’s website, JSMineset.com, linked to the article with the following editorial comment:
” What is happening in the Ukraine is not a short term anomaly, but the first major battle in the new and highly economic method of warfare. This is more serious than most are willing to accept. This is more long term than most can imagine. This is the “Game Changer of the Century.”
I agree.
And another related article available in Deutsch, English, French and Spanish: http://www.leap2020.eu/English_r25.html
GEAB No:84 Public access: http://www.leap2020.eu/GEAB-N-84-is-available-Europe-dragged-into-a-division-of-the-world-between-debtors-and-creditors-the-United-States_a16039.html
Europe dragged into a division of the world between debtors and creditors: the United States’ desperate solutions for not sinking alone
In the present confrontation between Russia and the West over the Ukrainian crisis, the image of the Cold War inevitably comes to mind and the media are obviously fond of it. However, contrary to what it gives us to understand, it’s not Russia that seeks the return of an iron curtain but really the US. An iron curtain separating the old powers and emerging nations; the world before and the world afterwards; debtors and creditors…And this in the crazy hope of preserving the American way of life and the US’ influence over “its” camp in the absence of being able to impose it on the whole world. In other words, go down with as many companions as possible to give the impression of not sinking.
So, who is bluffing who about economic sanctions? Take a read: “The ExxonMobil Russia Rosneft Partnership vs. Obama’s sanctions Regime against Russia.” http://www.globalresearch.ca/the-exxonmobil-russia-rosneft-partnership-vs-obamas-sanctions-regime-against-russia/5373884
Back to Mr. Putin’s and the OSCE press conference: Whatever happened to DC? Mr. Putin’s Western counterparts have made demands of him — that, he should exert “Control over what is happening in east/southeast Ukraine…and move your troops from the border”
Well, (from RT) Mr. Putin requested “postponing” the referendum. [Emphasis mine] And, RT reports:
“We are calling for southeast Ukraine representatives, supporters of federalization of the country, to postpone the May 11 referendum Putin also described Ukraine’s May 25 presidential election as a move “in the right direction”, but stressed the importance of constitutional reforms that would have to precede any nationwide vote in Ukraine. to create the necessary conditions for dialogue,” Putin said at a press conference with OSCE Chairperson-in-Office and Swiss President Didier Burkhalter in Moscow.
Postponing the referendum under the proviso of constitutional reforms before any vote. With fore-knowledge no one will listen. Mr. Putin has also announced the RF troops have withdrawn from the Ukrainian border.
What was the immediate reaction from the underwriters that Russia has withdrawn its troops from the Ukrainian border? Mr. Putin lies.
Conclusion: To know how to wait while others around you are losing their brain cells — is very Good strategy for success. Keep them off balance. Cookies are already burnt beyond edible. As has been noted, the EU-West has lost all credibility and is a sinking ship. In China the future beckons Mr. Putin’s arrival.
President Putin’s statements and Russia’s moves are very well thought over. Leaders of Novorossia liberation movement have understood Putin perfectly. Oleg Tzarev instantly replied back with the list of reasonable demands to Kiev and NATO as the conditions for rescheduling the referendum. If these conditions are not met, the Referendum will take place on May 11th.
The People Republic of Donetsk is independent from Russia. Putin can only ask them to reschedule the referendum, he can’t make them.
The informal way the leaders of PRD address Putin is telling. «При всём уважении и симпатии к Владимиру Владимировичу…» With all our respect and sympathy toward Vladimir Vladimirovich…
We have already established that Putin will not use the regular army in Ukraine. NATO asked Russia to pull back troops, and Russia agreed to do so. Keep in mind, NATO has demanded to move the Russian troops on the territory of Russia. Putin politely agreed.
For Americans, who can only think in the linear terms, dealing with uncle Vova, might be dazzling and exhausting simultaneously.
This analysis written by Alexandr Kazakov might help to get the deeper understanding of the players and the events that are taking place http://rusvesna.su/news/1399481054
Putin is just giving NATO longer and longer rope to hang itself, to do what those members of the Right Sector coming back from Odessa had done.
Cheers
daisy2
I don’t believe for 1 minute that Putin has ‘caved’ in. However, it does seem to be an odd move.
Great assortment of interesting and cogent points! What a beautiful expression of citizens discarding the propaganda, and penetrating to the heart of affairs.
Time for a humor break? The dailykos kossack “kavips” has posted a very clever reimagining of the Ukrainian situation placed in Pennsylvania. Not to be missed!
Understanding Putin; Understanding Ukraine; Understanding Us
Saker, have no worries. In the current situation any referendum would be a useless mess anyway, so to postpone a referendum on federalisation is a very cheap consession to make. It is better to make the political and economic realities make their impact before launching a referendum. If that can make the junta withdraw (or just put them on standstill) their Right Sector troops without them loosing face it is an outright bargain. Especially if it can drive a vedge in between the already obvious split between the junta and their fascist stormtroopers (Yatsenuk has not seemed comfortable with dealing with the Odessa massacre, unlike Timoshenko. After all, outright massacres is not a part of an IMF-bankers´ curriculum, they normally just do i t by austerity). And moving Russian troops just a little bit eastwards -well they can always come back with a vengeance. The important difference Russia can make right now is logistical support and a handfull of Spetznaz with MANPADs and anti-tank-weapons to keep the fascist stormtroopers at bay i Slavoyiansk and Krematorsk. For my part, I am drinking beer and am considering popcorn.
/Hagen
All:
You must keep in mind that self-determination and the right to self-governance proceeds from within the human mind and out the barrel of a gun, not through counting papers in ballot box or referendum. I guess it takes an American to note this truism.
From this perspective, Donbass is already free, and it became free as soon as it decided to resist Kiev and Lviv. What remains is not to vote on something that has already occurred, but to remove the Ukrainian Army.
American History provides the guide – (1) declare independence – (2) remove occupying Army by force – (3) receive international recognition, voting to seal the obvious with the expressed will of the people if neeed.
Donbass is already on step 2, not step 1. The fight in Slavyansk is not to establish independence, but to eject the occupier from the claimed territory.
@ Nora,
Q: … the seawall.
R: I thought we call that a ‘dyke’ [sorry, not meant to offend lesbian forum members].
As to Hitler [other thread], the only thing I want to know is the truth. The truth never hurts me, lies do.
I’m very cautious when it comes to translations, but according to he translator, the instructors told us ‘to be our enemy.’ I always thought they meant ‘to become our won enemy,’ but when I watch all this Machiavellian chess play [with life pawns], I begin to suspect they meant ‘to be your enemy’ in the sense that you have to think like him/her/them. Put yourself jn Putin’s shoes for a moment, and look at what you see.
What would you do?
I’ll give you my answer; I honestly don’t know. I would extremely careful, that’s for sure.
Some good comments here. Troop pullback? PR only – the troops are positioned and waiting.
Agree that the May 11 referendum is premature and difficult to pull off properly especially given Kiev’s ongoing military operations in the region.
Give the Kiev junta some additional time to alienate more of the population and for peaceful Crimea to provide an example. (How long will it take for the bridge to be constructed? Can they do it in less than a year? How is Russia doing with the infrastructure issues presented by separation from the mainland? Haven’t heard any news from Crimea since the vote and annexation except for some plans for various projects and business ventures…)
An endorsement of the May 25 election is more puzzling to me – unless Putin really has some prospect of a deal with the Germans to include leaders from east in talks with Kiev.
A real win for Russia would be to get critical EU states to tell the US to f**k off and work collaboratively with Russia for a solution as I agree that Russia does not want sole responsibility for the failed, divided state that Ukraine is at the moment. Maybe that is possible.
the pessimist (who is not feeling as pessimistic as the Saker atm)
What Putin actually said: http://eng.kremlin.ru/transcripts/7143
If Putin intervenes in eastern Ukraine now the Mighty Wurlitzer will blame him for Ukraine’s eventual outcome.
My guess is that Putin knows from intelligence that the Ukrainian army is deeply divided over the operations in the east and will be more so as civilian casualties mount. That means that if the “national guard” units do lots of brutality it will be a mark on the US and the fascists in Kiev. Meanwhile, Putin keeps asking for negotiations. The IMF sanctions will be put in place soon and things will become intolerable for the population. Repression will have to be increased so that it is obvious to even the western media (they did eventually notice the death squads in El Salvador, for example).
Putin is waiting to see how badly things will get there. He has to do nothing. It means nothing if a division of his military is five miles or five hundred miles from the Ukrainian border. If he does need to use the military, we’re talking minutes or hours difference.
As far as a deal between Russia and Germany, I have long suspected that Snowden was working for Germany’s interests (or German interests within the US intelligence community), and that now that Germany’s business plans are diverging from the US’s, I would not be surprised if Germany keeps getting their natural gas as America is left with the wreckage of Ukraine.
Also, there are plenty of Republicans who are ready to blame Obama for “losing Ukraine”.
Add this to the mystical mix:
“…laws for publicly denying the Holocaust or portraying Nazis as heroes…”
Do forum members dis/agree with the notion that this might be used as a ‘lawful tool’ to counteract against the Ukrainian Wehrmacht Thugs’ lust for more ‘Lebensraum’ to the East?
Link 1 @ http://www.jta.org/2014/05/05/news-opinion/world/russia-makes-holocaust-denial-illegal
Link 2 @ http://voiceofrussia.com/news/2014_05_07/Criminal-responsibility-for-rehabilitation-of-Nazism-is-introduced-in-Russia-8441/
@ 07 May, 2014 22:53
I’d be interested to hear more from Germans and west Euros about the prospect of Germany “distancing” itself (& by extension the rest of Europe, eventually) from the US. This would be a much bigger thing than a Ukrainian civil war, effectively pulling the plug on the great Satan.
The troops on the border had 3 functions:
(1) deter use of heavy weaponry by Ukranian army. that has been a success.
(2) make the neo-nazis nervous and let them reveal how evil they are. success.
(3) as a bargaining chip to be traded for something else.
I think #3 has now taken place, with the other bargaining chip being delay of the referendum.
I don’t think the deal was with the US though, the whole world can now see that we don’t keep our word when it comes to foreign policy matters. Rather I suspect the deal was with Germany.
Meanwhile, every passing day the neo-Nazis are in power in Kiev, the US looks (and sadly, is) more and more evil for supporting these worst kind of criminals. Even the Israelis are saying WTF?
The European institutions of power are still going along with it, but I think Euro heads of state have now stopped wondering whether the neo-cons in the State Dept are evil or merely stupid — and are starting, slowly, to wonder what to do about it.
There might also be an angle having to do with transfer of money from the IMF loan to Gazprom — perhaps this requires Ukraine to be in one piece. (Crimea notwithstanding).
If the folks in Donbas are Russian, is that something that will change in 2 weeks, 6 months, a year, ten years?
No, it won’t ever change in their lifetimes. They need to build the future they want irrespective of outside pressures. Economically, politically, demographically, and spiritually.
The events of the last 6 months were a jolt to the region; and I will include Ukraine proper, Moldova, Transdniester, Donbas and Russia.
Putin is a Big Player and the Big Play is the end of the dollar as world reserve currency; the end of the US as the hyperpower in favor of a multipolar world order; and the harmonization of EU-Russian relations.
If I were the people of the Donbas, I would chin up and realize that while no one is coming to my rescue, the future is in my hands.
No question, Putin is working with Merkel. Merkel wanted the seven OSCE prisoners released, they were released. Merkel wants Russian troops pulled back and it’s done. Merkel wanted the Donetsk referendum stopped, done. Putin is building trust with Angela because Angela is the key to stopping the civil war.
The EU has not signed all of the association agreement with the Ukraine. The most important part, the free trade section which will destroy the industry in eastern Ukraine has not been signed. It’s not scheduled to be signed until after the May 25th election. If it’s signed, civil war is sure to follow and Russia will not let the east lose.
Germany and Russia don’t want civil war, the US does. Germany will find a way for the EU to back away from signing the free trade part of the association agreement. The Ukrainian government will be forced to give Moscow what it wants, a decentralized Ukraine, no possibility of Ukraine joining NATO.
I agree with comments of Veritas and 123abc.
Putin has given up nothing.
There is no Russian army ‘massed’ on the border with Ukraine. He doesn’t have to move a single soldier because of the nature of the Russian deployment.
Putin also has no interest in seeing the May 11th referndums go forward. He is playing for all of Ukraine, not just a few oblasts. As another commentor pointed out, the referendums also lessen his claims against the May 25th election, also regional in nature. This move is a strong net gain coming at no cost whatsoever.
Putin is offering Europe a way out of the continued pattern of escalation favoured by the Ziocons. He is driving a wedge between the US and EU while paying no price except in terms of the perceptions of a few. As I said in a previous comment, this move is a minor stroke of genius.
His offer was quickly pounced on by those who want to de-escalate. Even the BBC seemed confounded by the “mystery of Putin” as one announcer said. Another journalist admitted the move had “wrongfooted” the West. This is brilliant P.R. He is in total control of the narrative on himself despite years and years of anti-Putin propaganda.
This is a strong move towards the negotiating table. Putin wants to move straight to direct negotiations with Europe now. He has them over a barrel because the alternative is escalation to a Syria or Spanish Civil War situation. Such a war would be guaranteed to target pipelines and leave the EU open to unlimited blackmail. European elites are absolutely unwilling to go this route.
I’m actually surprised by the number of people who see this as a mistake or a sign of weakness. This is a brilliant move!
First of all, BOPOH is right: … in the Crimea, popular sentiment was repeatedly verified before Russia took action. No doubt Russia did the same in the Donbass. Seems that the results disappointed…
The self-defense guys in Lugansk & Donetsk deserve respect for their courage, but not for their administrational skills. They are in too much of a hurry to make declarations, with not enough done on the ground.
How, for example are they going to provide security during the referendum outside of Donetsk, while in the city itself their “Defense Minister” has been either kidnapped or killed.
So, Putin does not want to find himself in the situation, when Russian Polite Armed Men in Green have been brought to protect the voters, – only to discover after the referendum that the voters do not want any independence from Kiev.
As of now and due to the latest move of Putin, we seem to have the following situation.
In the course of the recent days, Russia and the South East (Strelkov & Slavyansk) have managed to get several aces up their sleeves.
They have played into the hands of Europe by freeing the European officers, captured by the self-defense guys. And by doing it, they brought the OSCE to the negotiation table.
Strelkov, – thanks to the SBU officers captured earlier – ensured the release of three political prisoners, with Gubarev (the people’s Governor of Donetsk) being the most valuable one for the South East.
It is not for nothing that after the release Gubarev hasn’t left for Donetsk, but stayed in Slavyansk.
First, however strange it might seem, he will be safer in this front-line city, since Strelkov and his fighters have proven their worth and seem to be more reliable then the other guys.
And second, they could form a great fighting couple with Strelkov (dividing among them the political and military posts at the top). Who hasn’t been very happy with the level of cooperation with Donetsk self-defense guys.
Gubarev, imho, can raise Donbass. And – rather fast.
Skeptics could recall the somewhat similar period in Russian history, when Lenin raised people’s masses in a short period of time – “for a last and decisive battle”.
That’s why the time, gained by the move of Putin, shall, most probably, favor SE & Russia.
And Europe, I hope, will give us the time needed. Since its bureaucracy is quite slow: sending the road map of the OSCE to all of the interested parties, discussing it…
That’s why, I hope Russia will have a chance to peacefully celebrate the Victory Day, after which we shall have a greater room for maneuvers.
Gubarev in Slavyansk will have a chance to satisfy the thirst for new information (he said there had been ‘info vacuum’ in the captivity), and to discuss with Strelkov their road map…
Of course, all of the above would be only possible provided the people in Washington are not completely crazy.
Best Regards,
Shed
Daniel Rich,
I was kind of trying to avoid the obvious smirks about fingers and all… ;~) And I totally agree with you about finding the truth, however painful — I’m American, there’s LOTS of ugly here still waiting to be uncovered, and the process is not easy to go through. Mr. Nora and I have been at it our entire lives and keep thinking we can’t be shocked at this point, then learn even more about something and get shocked all over again.
I honestly don’t know what’s what vis-a-vis Ukraine. Sooo much food for thought in the comments on the last thread, and so much to be somehow filed-and-sorted today. But I’m still thinking we’ve entered a new stage here and I don’t like it one bit. I don’t like the way America has been running things, but I like Zionist policies and practices even less. And I’m beginning to wonder if our putative leaders have any control over our country at all.
Q. Have we had a coup too, an invisible one?
R. How the hell can we ever find out?