by Ramin Mazaheri for the Saker Blog (cross-posted by permission with Press TV)
Jimmy Carter’s foolish and feckless opposition to the Iranian Islamic Revolution was perhaps the single-most important reason he was not re-elected in 1980. Nearly 40 years later, Donald Trump is on the brink of allowing Iran to decide yet another US presidential election.
The Pahlavi dynasty was popularly overthrown in February 1979, just as monarchy was deposed in Russia’s “February Revolution” in 1917. Carter’s decision to harbor the royal criminal/US puppet Mohammad Reza Pahlavi was the main spark behind Iran’s incredible occupation of the US embassy in November 1979. That was the “real” Iranian Islamic Revolution, because ending monarchy is a rather common historical occurrence (but certainly not common enough in the Muslim and Western worlds). Iran’s historical pathway thus parallels the “real revolution” in 1917 Russia, which actually occurred later that year and is known as the “October Revolution”: the near-bloodless acceptance of the mantle of leadership by the Bolshevik Party. That also created a system which was wholly unique (revolutionary), and which went beyond the mere ending of monarchy.
Let’s remember why the occupation of the US embassy was so very “incredible” – a similar long-term, popularly-supported occupation seems unthinkable today… and yet Honduras – victimized by a coup orchestrated by Hillary Clinton in 2009 – set fire to the entrance of their US embassy in late May. That incident was hushed up by the Western Mainstream Media, of course, but it was impossible to cover-up the 444-day embassy occupation. It was such a face-losing event for Carter and his team of Iranophobes that the anti-imperialist event was the primary cause of Ronald Reagan’s election.
Reagan proved to be no friend to Iran – even though they helped him get a job – because Iranophobia, Islamophobia, and neo-imperialist doctrines reach across decades in Washington, far outstretching any one- or two-term president. Indeed, this constant policy of opposition to Muslim Democracy is why it is foolish to talk of “Trump pulling out of the JCPOA” – rather, it was “Washington” which broke the law unilaterally… again.
Trump’s belligerence, missteps and fascistic stances now have him looking a lot like Carter.
With their claim of having made an “aborted attack” against Iran last week, the US now has one less card to play – a “near attack” can only be followed a “real attack”, lest Washington look like the weak boy who falsely cried wolf. With their sanctions this week on Leader Ali Khamenei, they also now have one less person who will agree to sit at the card table.
The democratic structures of modern Iranian democracy are not complex but they are two things: unique (revolutionary) and totally under-reported in the West. Because there are checks and balances in Iranian democracy, the post (the branch, really) of the Supreme Leader must agree to major diplomatic talks proposed by legislative or executive branch politicians. Alienate the post of the Leader with laughable sanctions and he certainly laughs last at you: you will never negotiate anything serious with Iran.
But Washington has not alienated just one branch of Iran’s government recently: also sanctioning the Revolutionary Guards, upcoming sanctions on a foreign minister (Iran’s Mohammad Javad Zarif) who had done all he could to further peace and diplomacy for years, an “aborted attack”, illegal drone incursions getting shot down by Iran, $0 in oil sales – and that is just the past two months! Combined with the illegal reneging on the JCPOA, pushing European signatories to essentially renege as well and sanctions on other countries simply for buying an Iranian carpet (which the world desperately needs more of), and it’s clear that the US has alienated all of Iran.
That is not hyperbole from an Iranian commentator on Iranian state media: even The New York Times reported this same widespread sentiment in a (rare non-Iranophobic) article titled, “Iran Greets Latest U.S. Sanctions With Mockery”. They reported, in a surprisingly honest fashion: “An Iranian calling himself K. Jafari wrote in a widely circulated tweet: ‘The only people left to sanction are me, my dad and our neighbor’s kid. The foreign ministry should share Trump’s phone number so we can call him and give him our names.’”
Therefore, Iranian officials recently saying that the path of diplomacy is now permanently closed is not reflecting just one key politician in Iran, but the apparent democratic majority of Iran. Unlike the US or Europe, Iranian policies actually reflect the democratic majority.
Washington has made suspending diplomatic efforts with the US seemingly a democratic necessity for top Iranian politicians, and that could make Trump a one-term president.
The closure of diplomatic talks necessarily implies war – logically, if you reject the former you are only left with the latter. However, all-out war is impossible: Iran refuses it, and after 40 years of good governance, massive redistribution of oil wealth and vast defensive preparations, Iran is impossible to invade and also has scores of millions of willing defenders.
Two adversaries who will never meet toe-to-toe on the field of battle are necessarily limited to skirmishes around it – in places like the Strait of Hormuz. Such skirmishes – which will be regrettable, deadly and solely the fault of Western antagonism – could occur for the next (roughly) 444 days until the US 2020 elections, and will only drive up the price of oil.
That threatens the US economy, and – because the US “recovery” has been limited merely to the creation of new asset bubbles in the stock market, real estate, and other markets frequented by the wealthy – voters could choose to punish Trump by electing a Democrat in 2020.
Iranian politicians will once again play a huge role in an American election: the Principlist Party appears content to watch the JCPOA fail if it helps them retake Parliament in Iran’s May 2020 vote. However, due to Western duplicity, I don’t see what the Principlists could possibly do to get Europe and the US to start honoring their word? On the other side of the aisle, what choice will Reformists have but to also become more anti-US – indeed, Washington is the primary reason for Iran’s economic and diplomatic woes during their watch! Thus, Iranian politicians – after years of attempting détente with the US – appear poised to abandon it until at least May 2020.
So: more lost face for the US as Iran prevails yet again in very limited military skirmishes, more economic pain for the US caused by oil market instability which they provoked, and Iranian domestic politics which are united behind encouraging a change in US leadership.
It’s looking like a repeat of 1980, but with only one hostage – Trump.
Someone in Trump’s circle of fools needs to tell him: even if anti-Iran lobbies are devoted to pushing them no matter how badly they affect the average American, policies aimed at sparking Venezuela-like civil turmoil are doomed to immediate failure in Iran, and will certainly provoke consequences which US voters will remember at election time.
If Trump is foolishly intent on antagonizing Iran even further, I’d advise him to stop until at least 2021 – he can only lose big league (or “bigly”) to use a Trumpian phrase. Or rather, his policies towards Iran can only continue to lose.
Ramin Mazaheri is the chief correspondent in Paris for Press TV and has lived in France since 2009. He has been a daily newspaper reporter in the US, and has reported from Iran, Cuba, Egypt, Tunisia, South Korea and elsewhere. He is the author of “I’ll Ruin Everything You Are: Ending Western Propaganda on Red China”.
Preparing the invasion of Iran: the US empire regroups its proxies in Afghanistan
https://failedevolution.blogspot.com/2019/06/preparing-invasion-of-iran-us-empire.html
Trump says he will obliterate Iran if it attacks anything american…it will be over in minutes….however Congress is trying to say only approval by them can USA go to war…but DT says he does not need their permission …
Amazing how in the slide down this hill, we can look back at Dick Cheney as the Good Ol Days.
Because even Dick Cheney accepted, eventually, that the US Constitution clearly gives the power to declare war to the Congress.
Article I, Section 8
“The Congress shall have Power To …. declare War”
Note: the ellipses are simply because Section 8 is a long list of areas where power is given to the Congress, with declaring war being a bit down the list.
Threats of aggression are Supreme Crimes just like aggression itself, and these are actually threats of genocide as well. But ‘The Rules Based International Order’, that sordid joke, does not apply to the ‘Gods Upon the Earth’, now does it.
Re.: “With their sanctions this week on Leader Ali Khamenei, they also now have one less person who will agree to sit at the card table.”
Interesting… Why would he care? He is pure as a fresh snow on Mount Damavand. No Great Satan’s “sanctions” could hurt him and there are no earthly possession can be denied him because he has none.
The Great Satans cannot comprehend any leader who is not a greedy thief on the make. I bet Khamanei even gives his speeches for nothing. No wonder the Zionazis hate him so much-his is their antithesis.
The real disaster for Carter came from a military debacle, convinced from generals that the hostages could be forcefully taken back, a sand storm wiped out a couple helicopters during the invasion and the attempt was aborted. Then to further embarrass the Carter administration the hostages were released as soon as Reagan took office. It was all U.S. inspired aggression that lead to events of that day, I dont see any public related events occurring today to compare to then, private ones are different matter.
The Reagan/Bush campaign in 1980 had CIA Director George Bush as the VP candidate. In Langley, VA, the offices in CIA HQ offices were decorated with Reagan/Bush campaign poster that had been torn in half, leaving only the part with the former director. Carter had tried to, if not reform the CIA, at least try to pull back on the leash a bit. This was after the famous Church Committee hearings that had provided a small bit of glasnost into the growing deep state. He appointed Admiral Stansfield Turner as CIA Director with this job. The CIA hated both Carter and Turner, and wanted them gone.
The Reagan campaign team used these contacts to negotiate with the Iranians. Carter was of course trying desperately to end the hostage crisis before the election. Reagan wanted the Iranians to hold off. Events show who won that bidding war, when the negotiations were delayed until the hostages were released on Reagan’s inauguration day. But of course Carter probably never knew who he was really bidding against.
A former analyst named Gary Sick wrote a good and well documented book of the evidence he collected pointing to this conspiracy.
Of course, when Reagan and Ollie North wanted to violate American law by selling missile and jet parts to Iran for cash which he then used to send cash and weapons to the Contras, the Reagan White House knew exactly who to call in Iran. They didn’t have to search for people to contact. They already knew them because they been dealing together before the 1980 election.
As I understood it Iran had a balance here in the U.S. that was then frozen upon the 79 revolution, Ollie wanted to use that money to fund the contras( ergo starting the Central America crisis evolving today). Eventually that money was paid back by international decree, and once again on the backs of the U.S. taxpayer, then rumors flew about how this party or that party favored Iran politically. Once again proving that it was politics that ruined the human race.
The US rescue plan relied on much slaughter of Iranians gathered around the US Embassy, or wherever the prisoners were being kept. Same old, same old. Killing is their one true religion.
“If crime fighters fight crime, and fire fighters fight fire, who do Freedom Fighters fight?”
— the late, great philosopher George Carlin
As Ronny Raygun said of the Contra butchers killing teachers, doctors and nurses in Nicaragua-‘The moral equivalent of our Founding Fathers’. And as Chomsky observed, Reagan was correct, although he didn’t realise it, or why.
Trump is already in huge trouble in the next election. He consistently polls at an Approval level of the low 40’s, while his Disapproval level is well over 50%. Those numbers say that the only way Trump can win is in a crooked and rigged election. For Trump, that does mean that all is not completely lost as America has a long tradition and much expertise at crooked and rigged elections.
Trump keeps promising that everything that says Made in China will carry a 25% tarriff. For tarriff, lets use the accurate word Tax. Those taxes are paid by Americans who now face a market where everything that used to be Made in America is now Made in China. Trump and his cabinet of billionaires passed a giant tax cut for billionaires and corporations. Included was a small tax cut for working people, a few crumbs under the table. But now Trump’s Tax Hikes are going to cost those same working people more than they got in crumbs from Trump’s Tax Cut for billionaires.
Trump won because he convinced working class voters in places like Michigan and Wisconsin that he’d change things for the better for them. But the job gains and the tax cuts that Trump bragged so much about were really tiny. And now the job losses and the tax hikes from Trump’s Trade War will far exceed those little PR stunts by the time the next election rolls around.
And a good bit of Trump’s vote was from people who hated Hillary. He won’t be running against Hillary next time, and even Joe Biden isn’t as hated as fiercely as Hillary was.
The last thing Trump needs is a soaring price of gasoline and especially not a soaring price of home heating oil this winter. The American economy is already teetering on the brink of a recession, again at the worst possible time for Trump. Wall St is already betting on lower bond yields, and that’s because they expect a recession to force the Fed to return interest rates to zero or near-zero. A huge jump in the price of oil soon can convert a downturn into a crash.
Trump’s big problem is that more and more he is starting to look weak. Too many people have called his many and loud bluffs, and shown them to be bluffs. Anyone with an abacus can see that Trump is probably down to his last 18 months in office. So, why not make yourself popular at home by publicly telling Trump to go stuff himself, and wait to see who the oligarchs put forward next?
American Presidents….
Teddy “Rough Rider” Roosevelt:
“Speak Softly and Carry a Big Stick”
Donald “Reality TV” Trump
“Speak Loudly and Carry a Toothpick”
If there is an election in 2020, it all depends on Trump’s opponent. If it is a Rightwing, neoliberal, cadaver like Bye-Bye Biden, then the Democrat abstentions will put Trump across the finishing line, second to ‘Did Not Bother’. Trump’s dum-dums in his base (in all possible meanings of the word)will vote for him even if he demands their first-born for his Israeli Masters’ human organ trafficking industry.
Mulga…just in case readers think that your words are mere hyperbole, i want to add a narrative about an incident which is factual and reported by journalists a few years ago>
The Palestinian kids in a village are used to Israeli jeeps scooting though their village…and early in the morning, the Palestinian kids pop their heads up in windows and when a Jeep passes by they throw rocks at the Jeeps…except that this time, the Israeli soldiers are on the lookout for a 12 year old girl…they spot one in a window and then they jump out and grab the girl, kicking and screaming…To silence her, they garrot her…the Palestinian parents respond and grab their daughter – now dead – back. They scream at the Israeli soldiers who beat a hasty retreat… A few hours later, according to Islamic tradition, the parents visit a cemetery to bury their daughter. The Israelis , now in vindictive mode, appear with helicopters and drop stones on the people attending a service in the cemetery.
The Israelis had been given payment to find an organ donor for a sick Israeli kid and had wanted to get a 12 yo Palestinian girl – never mind the issue whether the blood matches…
It is thus factually correct to state that Israeli troops have been paid to look out for potential organ donors amongst Palestinians…
I digress here but these facts also need to be aired>
> Israeli soldiers regularly slammed their rifles into the abdomens of pregnant Palestinian women when they needed to cross the border into Israel to find work…
> As part of the well-known cooperation between Apartheid South Africa and Israel, the South Africans used to invite the Israelis on a Picannini-Shoot…this involved going into the Veldt and when they saw a village in the distance, the South Africans demonstrated their sniper skills to their Israeli guests by killing black kids – and invited their Israeli guests to do likewise…
I remember shortly after the Apartheid regime fell, a group of white South Africans drove their Mercedes to a site, where they wanted to do this “sport” – they were spotted by South African blacks and executed still sitting in their car…I remember the picture well and thinking “good riddance.”
Rather a far fetched assertion, to put it mildly, that Carter should have or could have embraced the Iranian revolution. The Shah was, after all a long time ally of both the United States and Israel. As for admitting the Shah, this was a consensus decision, although ultimately Carter’s responsibility, the Shah had powerful allies such as Henry Kissinger and David Rockefeller. Here is what Walter Mondale had to say about it:
The President was concerned and said so, at least in private, that if we let the Shah into America, it might trigger a reaction in Iran, and I believe there were some American officials in our Iranian office that had communicated their concerns to the State Department.
Carter was very concerned about that… People were encouraging him to allow the Shah in for health care and he asked them all: “If the Iranians react negatively, if they should seize our State Department officials there and make them hostages, then what is your policy?” The room went dead, if not ashen.
Kissinger called me personally, and he called a lot of people personally, saying that not to allow the Shah in was a national disgrace, that America is not a police state, the Iranian radicals are trying to isolate him, but the man is sick and he should be able to come to a hospital that can do something for him. That idea carried the day.
Trump is a certainty. Even if the US economy implodes before 2020, rather than after, the ignorant morons who elected him in 2016 will vote for him, no matter what. Stupidity is a real spur to electoral engagement-the bozos simply hate anyone smarter than themselves, and voting for a narcissistic phony only interested in enriching his rich mates, and who treats them as he does women, would be an act of dumb, self-harming, defiance.
If Iran is seen to be gaining the advantage whatever that means over USA(probably means not surrendering) in these experts opinions….Israel and Saudi should go it alone against Iran…..https://sptnkne.ws/mKMa
“The latest showdown between Washington and Tehran is a lot like the United States’ clash with North Korea two years ago, except for one crucial difference: there is no regional ally capable of restraining the US’ worst tendencies. With barbs traded and sanctions imposed, what can stop the US from sliding into yet another Middle East war? To discuss this, Oksana is joined by David Morrison, co-author of ‘A Dangerous Delusion: Why the West Is Wrong about Nuclear Iran’.
WATCH:
http://rt.com/shows/worlds-apart-oksana-boyko/
http://www.youtube.com/user/WorldsApartRT/videos
It was jolly good……guy used to an inspector of nuclear capabilities……west is creating a big false setup……
It’s not a ‘delusion’. It is a series of villainous lies. Iran did not have a nuclear weapons program, according to US NIEs. Iran has abjured the possession of nuclear weapons as ‘unIslamic’. Israel, in contrast, finds such weapons to be quite Divine, according to Talmudic dogma, where killing civilians is seen as a ‘mitzvah’ or good deed. Iran is a signatory in good standing to the NPT, unlike Israel, or the USA, which simply ignores its requirements that the nuclear powers disarm. And Iran proposed a nuclear-free zone in the Middle East, a proposal that was completely ignored by the USA, Israel, Sordid Barbaria and the Western fakestream presstitute infestation.
Ron Paul calls Saudi Arabia worse than Iran
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L4iuWrjIMm4