It took a lot of zigs and zags, but eventually common sense seemed to have prevailed and the UN has officially announced that Iran will be invited as a full participant to the Geneva 2 conference. The Obama Administration should probably commended for being rational and not gone down the insane road of trying to negotiate something in Syria without inviting Iran. Most of the credit in this case goes to Putin and Lavrov who from the beginning made Iran’s full participation a condicio sine qua non for a Russian participation to the planned conference. Apparently, the USA’s agreement was “bought” by a rather infantile face-saving ploy to “dilute” Iran amongst other wholly irrelevant countries such as Austria, Luxembourg or Mexico. I think of them as “diplomatic plankton”. That’s fine – everybody present understands “who is who” and “what is what” – and most participants will simply wait to be told to sign on the dotted line by the real players. As for the “opposition” – the Saudi backed Takfiris refused to attend, the US-backed “moderates” will show up. This is basically the best possible lineup.
What can we expect now?
Nobody knows and your guess is as good as mine.
Ideally, the best possible outcome for Syria would be a deal between the US and Syria which would leave Assad in power, the organization of a multi-party elections and constitutional reforms to be adopted by means of a referendum. In plain English, this means “Assad remains in power”. This is the logical solution if only because 1) by all estimates Assad has the support of a majority of the Syrian people and 2) his regime has won the war. This is what Russia and Iran would prefer. The Saudis will never accept that. Which leaves the US to decide whether this is an acceptable option or not. Considering that the US Neocons are firmly in control of Congress and the US corporate Ziomedia, it would be politically very very difficult for Obama’s Administration to agree to such a deal. With US elections coming up fairly soon, I really don’t think that the US will accept that.
Second option, is the same as the first one (organization of a multi-party elections and constitutional reforms to be adopted by means of a referendum), but with a clear date for exit foreseen for Assad. That is a much better option for the US which could “declare victory and leave” – an old and honored US tradition. The big problem with this option is that the Syrian people might not like being told that their President and victor of the war must leave “kuz the US says so”. Russia also said many times that “only the Syrian people must decide who is in power” which could indicate a Russian rejection of such an option. Both Iran and Russia might not want to weaken the winning party by agreeing to what can only be called a “US ordered coup via a UN Conference”. Besides, even if Assad agreed to step down, what would the guarantees be that the US will not reignite the war at a latter date? The US will push for that option, but I don’t see the other side accepting either.
Option three is obvious: no agreement is found and all parties depart blaming each other for the failure. This is a bad outcome almost by definition, but I think that time is on Assad’s side and that means that this is a worse outcome for the US than it would be for the Syria-Iran-Russia alliance. It is hard to imagine a mechanism by which the tide of the war could be reversed and, in fact, all the signs on the ground are that the opposition is very close to a military and political collapse. Of course, whether the Ziocrazies in the USA understand that, or even whether they are willing to accept the facts in “realworld” is dubious. They might press on just because they are so out of touch with reality.
Which leaves option four. In very general terms a viable “option four” would probably be based on some kind of alliance between the pro-US opposition and the regime against the Takfiris. I honestly don’t know whether such an option can be adopted in Geneva II. Assuming a fourth option is found, that is the one that, God willing, will be hammered out in detail between Russia, the US, Iran and Syria and, if the relevant parties agree, will be submitted for (automatic) approval to the “diplomatic plankton” representing the so-called “international community”. If that happens, the KSA will be told in no uncertain terms to “give it up or else”, at least for the time being.
What is your take on this situation and what do you think will happen at Geneva II?
Please let us know.
The Saker
UPDATE1: Just as I had finished the above, I saw a news item saying that the Syrian opposition announced that unless Iran is dis-invited, they will not participate. In a tweet, SNC spokesman Louay Safi wrote: “The Syrian Coalition announces that they will withdraw their attendance in G2 unless Ban Ki-moon retracts Iran’s invitation” reports the BBC. For the life of me I cannot image a dumber statement to make: don’t they understand that their only chance of survival is to hammer out some kind of deal with the regime in order to get rid of the Takfiris? This makes me wonder if the SNC is being pushed towards that kind of suicidal stance by Israel and the US Ziocons (a la McCain). Does anybody still remember how the US told Itzebegovich to retract his agreement to a negotiated solution in Bosnia? But this is not Bosnia, but 2014 and if the SNC think that they can repeat the Bosnian tactic they are mistaken. If this is how the “moderate” opposition acts, I am inclined to think that there is only one solution left: a total military victory by the regime.
What is your take on that latest zag by the SNC?
UPDATE2: Now its the US which is “zagging”: according to the BBC, the US is now also telling the UN that Iran must be dis-invited. Such a reversal by the US is infantile, unprofessional and simply utterly ridiculous. The more this kind of nonsense goes on, the more I wonder if Assad and Syria would not be better off simply winning this war without any form of negotiations at all…
If you read this one, you get the feeling Iran is winning on more fronts than one, with Russian help ofcourse
http://blogs.rediff.com/mkbhadrakumar/2014/01/17/us-russia-tensions-frothin-middle-east/
Mindfriedo
@Mindfriedo: thanks a lot for this article, M K Bhadrakumar is a top world class analyst and this article is particularly interesting and well researched. Great stuff!!
@EVERYBODY
I highly recommend the article Mindfriedo is mentioning, way better than my humble musings and with some excellent context setting!!
Thanks and cheers,
The Saker
Interesting article. Will the Iranian/Russian deal be done with dollars?
T1
@Bhadrakumar…
Indeed, the analyses of Bhadrakumar are outstanding. He was never wrong sensing the way things go.
E.g.:
“The Obama administration is going the extra league to act as a spoiler at the forthcoming Winter Olympics at Sochi, which the Kremlin is showcasing. Besides, the US senate foreign relations committee held hearings in Washington on Wednesday regarding Ukraine where criticism was levelled at the Kremlin’s overtures to President Viktor Yanukovich”.
You may add now the infantile tantrums about the “expulsion” of David Satter from Russia.
That may suggest that the US will continue to try to put spokes in the wheels at Geneva 2. It may also indicate that the Russian victory is really substantial.
WizOz
One of the main things to consider in this is that the bulk of the leadership of the ‘Syrian’ opposition are not in Syria at all, & most are long-term exiles.
If the war ends without them in power the vast GCC moneytrain ends, & so does their connection to the centre of power in the region.
The other is the vast network of western NGO’s/thinktanks where enormous sums of money & power are concentrated, which have invested so much in overthrowing Assad by propping up these groups.
—
I really don’t see a real partner in the peace process from the opposition unless the ‘actual’ domestic opposition is willing to stand up for itself & disassociate from the extremists/external opportunists – and this has not happened in a large enough manner.
I think the best option for Russia to push under the circumstance is to keep it simple – monitored elections in a year with limited autonomy on the table for those regions that want it.
Iran rising, and the fallout
http://rt.com/op-edge/turkey-iran-883/
http://rt.com/news/uae-compulsory-military-service-869/
@saker
Some of Bhadrakumar’s articles are verbiose and lack meat(numbers and facts) but this one, as are most, was very well written
mindfriedo
Hi Saker,
I think to understand what is going on with Syria and Iran one needs to consider the bigger picture. In this larger context I believe that what you call the Takfiris were basically used on behalf of the US and Europe, to either contain China’s economic expansion by wrecking havoc in any country that dared to favor Chinese investments over US or EU, or similarly jeopardize the construction of what can be called the New Silk Road (the planed and almost completed network of pipelines and railroads across Asia spearheaded by Russia and China, which would directly compete with the maritime commercial lanes controlled by the US).
Having said that, clearly the Takfiris are directly controlled by the KSA and Qatar. The problem with this is that, as Iraq has been incapacitated, Iran suffocated and now Syria thrown into chaos, and as the US and EU are experiencing a secular economic decline, the Sunni Golf States have seen a corresponding increase in relative power. In the last decade or so, on the foot steps of China, they have become much more ambitious in the global investment scene. Notably but not exhaustively, they have acquired agricultural investments in East Africa in order to achieve food independence; the last mean for the Western world to control them short of bombing them, which is becoming an increasingly expensive proposition, especially since they have been armed so well. The other major problem with waging war at this juncture, is that it would cause an oil shock that would potentially terminally destabilize the current world monetary system.
So for the first time in the past hundred years or so, we now have an Arab force, on top of the Chinese, directly competing for world resources with the Western colonial empires. This is obviously unacceptable to the US and EU, and this is where Iran comes in handy. To put it bluntly, the US (with the blessing of the EU and possibly Russia, but the later for its own personal reasons) have decided to trade the KSA for Iran, the evidence of which is the signing of a new pipeline between Iranian oilfields and Oman (which could only have happened with the explicit blessing of the US).
I believe we will now witness an increasingly deteriorating relationship between the Gulf Oil States and the western world with an increasing media focus on human rights abuses, and gradual implementation of embargo and other economic sanctions as Iranian oil slowly replaces Arab oil on the international market. Evidently the big winner here is Iran, but it does not mean that the sky is all clear now. Everybody understands that a fully rehabilitated Iran is potentially a much more formidable force than some Arab tribes in the middle of nowhere. So it should be expected that the West will try its best (and it shouldn’t be too difficult for the time being) to keep every bordering country in chaos (think Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iraq and of course Syria) in order to keep it on a short leach.
So basically I expect nothing for Syria from the Geneva talks as long as the Western world has any meaningful influence in the region, but Iran should nevertheless be in a somewhat better position.
Obviously there is much more to say about the whole situation and this is only a very succinct summary, but do you think it makes sense?
Thank you,
Tarek
Hi Saker,
I think to understand what is going on with Syria and Iran one needs to consider the bigger picture. In this larger context I believe that what you call the Takfiris were basically used on behalf of the US and Europe, to either contain China’s economic expansion by wrecking havoc in any country that dared to favor Chinese investments over US or EU, or similarly jeopardize the construction of what can be called the New Silk Road (the planed and almost completed network of pipelines and railroads across Asia spearheaded by Russia and China, which would directly compete with the maritime commercial lanes controlled by the US).
Having said that, clearly the Takfiris are directly controlled by the KSA and Qatar. The problem with this is that, as Iraq has been incapacitated, Iran suffocated and now Syria thrown into chaos, and as the US and EU are experiencing a secular economic decline, the Sunni Golf States have seen a corresponding increase in relative power. In the last decade or so, on the foot steps of China, they have become much more ambitious in the global investment scene. Notably but not exhaustively, they have acquired agricultural investments in East Africa in order to achieve food independence; the last mean for the Western world to control them short of bombing them, which is becoming an increasingly expensive proposition, especially since they have been armed so well. The other major problem with waging war at this juncture, is that it would cause an oil shock that would potentially terminally destabilize the current world monetary system.
So for the first time in the past hundred years or so, we now have an Arab force, on top of the Chinese, directly competing for world resources with the Western colonial empires. This is obviously unacceptable to the US and EU, and this is where Iran comes in handy. To put it bluntly, the US (with the blessing of the EU and possibly Russia, but the later for its own personal reasons) have decided to trade the KSA for Iran, the evidence of which is the signing of a new pipeline between Iranian oilfields and Oman (which could only have happened with the explicit blessing of the US).
I believe we will now witness an increasingly deteriorating relationship between the Gulf Oil States and the western world with an increasing media focus on human rights abuses, and gradual implementation of embargo and other economic sanctions as Iranian oil slowly replaces Arab oil on the international market. Evidently the big winner here is Iran, but it does not mean that the sky is all clear now. Everybody understands that a fully rehabilitated Iran is potentially a much more formidable force than some Arab tribes in the middle of nowhere. So it should be expected that the West will try its best (and it shouldn’t be too difficult for the time being) to keep every bordering country in chaos (think Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iraq and of course Syria) in order to keep it on a short leach.
So basically I expect nothing for Syria from the Geneva talks as long as the Western world has any meaningful influence in the region, but Iran should nevertheless be in a somewhat better position.
Obviously there is much more to say about the whole situation and this is only a very succinct summary, but do you think it makes sense?
Thank you,
Tarek
About Ukraine: The riots of yesterday evening. Very violent, but most of all: very organized: It would be interesting to investigate where all the helmets, shields and other militia – like gear came from and who financed it.
I still see many parallels with the Thai situation, where the Sinawatra regime is propped up by ´the west´ for very similar reasons!
Suffice to say that the Syrian/American equivalent of the Miami Cubans, the awakened cell SNC, has shoot themselves badly in the foot on this one with no bargain chip whatsoever in sight. Is it because they know that the SAA are winning on all fronts anyway, that Assad still enjoys 70% popular support and that, if the Americans don´t intend to ride them in and impose them on Damascus on tanks and boots on the ground that is, the first and last thing they will see in Syria and life, probably, after years of exile will be lamp-posts? That´s about how popular these traitors are.
I think the talks are being set up for another humiliating blow to Kerry/Kohn and his israeli patrons.
Mikhas.
This barbaric war brought to the poor Syrian people, is the Khazar Zionist attempt to control the desert religion, and build another khazar empire. Now they have their Jesuit Pope in power, watch what accord he will sign when he visit the Zionist state in May, that will prove you what the Zionist have been doing. This war was forecast by the Mayans, 2014 is the break year for this Edomite “Tribe”. Thanks to the steadfast support of Iran and Hezbollah, their plans have been held up.
As I saw written somewhere else, Geneva 2 will be a fiasco or a farce. I don’t know which either.
Most likely, this will be a can kicking exercise which will suit Assad, Russia and Iran just fine.
Iran being invited will set a precedent. If any rebels attend that will also set a precedent.
WOW. US Foreign Policy is loosing on all fronts. Gives those of us who actually care about America hope that dual-citizen zogs won’t continue to have a stranglehold on US-ME policy forever. OF COURSE Iran should be at the negotiating table. Isn’t that what its for? To bring all the differing sides together? Wonder if Lavrov gets tired of schooling US diplomats? Maybe he should change for training services. It’s embarrassing. Hopefully he knows not all American’s are fools and shills for Zionist interests.
It’s very unclear to me what the SNC can actually deliver on the ground – their influence over those doing the fighting whether Salafist or the supposed ‘moderates’ seems virtually non-existent. This is a major problem for any attempt at a negotiated settlement – who does the current Syrian government negotiate with?
@ T1, concerning “the barter deal of oil-for-good with Iran: Russia might take on board the Iranian crude, simply relabel it as ‘Russian’ and sell it — to, say, India or China … bucking the western sanctions.”
Your question: “Will the Iranian/Russian deal be done with dollars?”
Well, barter deals obviously aren’t done with dollars. But what could serve as a common denominator to offset oil against other goods?
Turkey and Iran, when circumventing the sanctions, used pure gold.
Some pictures here: “Buying gold? Try Istanbul’s Grand Bazaar” http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yG55eWQxMGA
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8u7qnEhViD0
Of course it’s not all jewellery and baubles:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/8987843/Grand-Bazaars-gold-merchants-turn-to-Bloomberg.html
If it can’t go directly, it goes via Dubai.
“Dubai Gold Souk” http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4jqr5wlo300
Here is the complete time-line of the golden deals (sorry it is not in English, but you simply don’t find much correct news on Turkey in English. Same as with news on Russia):
Die Türkei hat den Öl-Import [aus dem Iran] zwar auf ein Minimum reduziert, muss den restlichen Anteil allerdings auch auf irgendeine Weise bezahlen. Auch selbst nutze der Iran offenbar Gold als verlässliches Zahlungsmittel, mit dem die Sanktionen umgangen werden können und weiterhin Geschäfte mit dem Ausland gemacht werden können.
13.07.12 http://www.deutsch-tuerkische-nachrichten.de/2012/07/456706/iran-umgeht-sanktionen-gold-importe-aus-der-tuerkei-verachtfachen-sich/
17.08.12 http://www.deutsch-tuerkische-nachrichten.de/2012/08/458689/trotz-internationaler-sanktionen-tuerkei-versorgt-iran-mit-stahl/
In den Iran exportiert die Türkei derzeit mehr Gold als in jedes andere Land. Da viele Länder keine Finanzgeschäfte mit dem Iran abwickeln können, ist das Land auf die Exporte der Türkei angewiesen (auch Stahl aus der Türkei ist beim Iran beliebt).
01.09.12 http://www.deutsch-tuerkische-nachrichten.de/2012/09/459617/tuerkei-exporte-in-den-iran-bewahren-vor-finanzkrise/
16.10.12 http://www.deutsch-tuerkische-nachrichten.de/2012/10/461745/goldene-zeiten-fuer-die-tuerkei-edelmetall-laesst-leistungsbilanzdefizit-schrumpfen/
Gold im Wert von 1,144 Milliarden Dollar wurde allein in die Vereinigten Arabischen Emirate exportiert. Mitverantwortlich für diesen Anstieg ist die massive Goldnachfrage im Iran. Die Vereinigten Arabischen Emirate dienen dabei als Handelsweg, berichtet die Financial Times.
01.11.12 http://www.deutsch-tuerkische-nachrichten.de/2012/11/462810/tuerkei-exporte-in-die-emirate-plus-450-prozent/
29.11.12 http://www.deutsch-tuerkische-nachrichten.de/2012/11/463943/kein-gold-mehr-fuer-gas-tuerkei-lassen-geplante-iran-sanktion-der-usa-kalt/
02.12.12 http://www.deutsch-tuerkische-nachrichten.de/2012/12/464060/unter-den-augen-der-usa-tuerkisch-iranischer-goldhandel-geht-weiter/
22.01.13 http://www.deutsch-tuerkische-nachrichten.de/2013/01/466524/goldproduktion-auf-rekordhoch-tuerkei-profitiert-von-neuen-investitionen/
02.04.13 http://www.deutsch-tuerkische-nachrichten.de/2013/04/472511/trotz-us-sanktionen-tuerkisch-iranisches-gold-fuer-gas-geschaeft-laeuft-munter-weiter/
26.04.13 http://www.deutsch-tuerkische-nachrichten.de/2013/04/474392/gold-russland-und-die-tuerkei-erhoehen-ihre-reserven/
01.07.13 http://www.deutsch-tuerkische-nachrichten.de/2013/07/479892/rangliste-goldreserv%E2%80%8Ben-tuerkei-legt-weiter-zu-deutschlan%E2%80%8Bd-auf-platz-2/
Die Türkei kaufte fortan iranisches Erdgas mit Gold auf. Gold wurde die wichtigste Handelswährung für Abnehmer von iranischen Energieprodukten. Doch am 1. Juli 2013 haben die USA jegliche Goldlieferungen an den Iran verboten.
09.07.13 http://www.deutsch-tuerkische-nachrichten.de/2013/07/480739/gold-fuer-erdgas-niedriger-goldpreis-und-iran-embargo-bereiten-tuerkei-kopfzerbrechen/
15.08.13 http://www.deutsch-tuerkische-nachrichten.de/2013/08/483955/tuerkei-moechte-iran-embargo-mit-tauschhandel-umgehen/
26.09.13 http://www.deutsch-tuerkische-nachrichten.de/2013/09/490254/goldreserven-im-august-tuerkei-weltweit-groesster-kaeufer/
11.11.13 http://www.deutsch-tuerkische-nachrichten.de/2013/11/493808/tuerkei-wird-goldimporte-um-71-prozent-steigern/
14.12.13 http://www.deutsch-tuerkische-nachrichten.de/2013/12/495890/tuerkei-hortet-mehr-gold-als-europaeische-zentralbank/
Im Zuge der Korruptions-Affäre waren die Amerikaner auch erbost zu erfahren, dass die Türkei offenbar einen regen Gold-Handel mit dem Iran betrieben hätten – trotz des Embargos.
27.12.13 http://www.deutsch-tuerkische-nachrichten.de/2013/12/496371/erdogan-unter-druck-die-tuerkei-versinkt-im-chaos/
As it happens, China is importing a lot of gold… What a coincidence.
Hmm. The US may be strongarming som dudes right now: http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article37419.htm
/Hagen
Hmm. The US may be strongarming som dudes right now: http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article37419.htm
/Hagen
Please debunk todays propaganda for us mr. Saker:
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jan/20/evidence-industrial-scale-killing-syria-war-crimes
Does not seem credible to me! But in W.Europe almost everyone is of course, immediately convinced.
It can be difficult for amateurs to pinpoint the signs of bullshit, although the smell is definitely all around this new accusation!