Moscow is braced for what the opposition claims will be the biggest demonstration in Russia for 20 years. Tens of thousands are expected to gather in a square south of the Kremlin, in the latest show of anger over disputed parliamentary polls. Smaller rallies are due to take place in cities across the country. The protesters allege Sunday’s elections – which gave Prime Minister Vladimir Putin’s ruling United Russia party a small lead – were fraudulent. Hundreds of people have been arrested during anti-Putin protests over the past week, mainly in Moscow and St Petersburg. At least 50,000 police and riot troops have been deployed in Moscow ahead of Saturday’s protests. The opposition says it is hoping for a turnout of 30,000 in the capital in the demonstration dubbed “For Fair Elections”, due to begin at 14:00 (10:00 GMT). The BBC’s Daniel Sandford in Moscow says that if the protests come even close to expectations, they will shake the 12-year-long political domination of Mr Putin.
The top US military commander, Gen Martin Dempsey, says he is concerned about “the potential for civil unrest” as Europe’s financial crisis unfolds. Gen Dempsey said it was unclear the latest steps taken by EU leaders would be enough to hold the eurozone together, adding that a break-up could have consequences for the Pentagon. He suggested that part of his concern was that the US military could be exposed to any unravelling of the eurozone “because of the potential for civil unrest and the break-up of the union”. The US military has more than 80,000 troops and 20,000 civilian workers in Europe, many based in Germany.
I am confident that, just as in Iran, the Empire will fail in its attempts to use the recent elections as a lever to achieve regime change. For one thing not a single major political party in Russia is willing to back any type of “color revolution” in Russia. Sure, various human right organization will call for an election rerun, but what most people in the West fail to realize is that these organizations are mostly deeply despised in Russia. Not only were the vast majority of Cold War era pro-Western “dissident” organizations CIA-sponsored, but they were also unanimously supporters of the Eltsin regime between 1991-2000. During the two wars in Chechnia, one of the most vocal defenders of ‘human rights’ was Sergei Kovalev, whose absolutely disgusting activities in Chechnia earned him the dubious distinction of being one of the most hated persons in the entire country. Bottom line: ‘dissidents’ and ‘human right’ activists have exactly zero traction in Russia.
Thousands of people have attended the biggest anti-government rally in the Russian capital Moscow since the fall of the Soviet Union
As many as 50,000 people gathered on an island near the Kremlin to condemn alleged ballot-rigging in parliamentary elections and demand a re-run.
Prominent figures at the rally included younger opposition activists like Yevgenia Chirikova, as well as former Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov and Boris Nemtsov, a former deputy prime minister under the late Boris Yeltsin.
At least 50,000 police and riot troops were deployed in Moscow ahead of Saturday’s protests and the city began to resemble a police state rather than a democracy, Daniel Sandford says.
There were no immediate reports of protest-related arrests in Moscow but police in Kurgan, on the border with Kazakhstan, dispersed an unapproved rally.
It appears that the (justly) feared OMON (riot police with a deserved reputation for brutality) did not use tasers, pepper-stray, batons, tear gas, water cannons. Nobody was arrested. Not a single political leader with some degree of credibility showed up.
Conclusion: this is what the French call a “storm in a glass of water” or, in Shakespeare’s words “much ado about nothing“. The fact that, unlike in Iran, the demonstrators failed to engage in violence tells me that this entire movement has even less traction than Mousavi’s “Gucci Revolution”. Think about it – when you represent roughly 0,5% of the population nice and clean demonstration are just not going to get you the attention you want. At this point, you need an innocent “Neda” to really fire up the propaganda and rally more people, you need YouTube videos of cops beating up demonstrators, you absolutely need “proof” of the “barbarity” of the regime. Unless the Russian “Guccis” manage to regroup and get some violence going, I call this entire movement a gigantic flop.
And, just in case, let me repeat something here, just to make sure: I am in NO WAY a Medvedev or Putin fanboy. In fact, my view of them is not unlike my view of Ahmadinejad: they are not the type of political leaders I like, but the opposition to them is much, much worse (at least in Iran it was evil and corrupt, but credible; in Russia they are mostly discredited clowns). And just as in the elections in Iran, I am NOT saying that no cheating took place. I am only saying three basic things:
a) the outgoing government won the elections because a plurality of voters supports it
b) the outgoing government had no need for fraud
c) the so-called opposition does not seek new elections, what it wants is “regime change”
That’s it.
Still a 30,000 protest movement in Moscow and possibly thousands more around the country I think would have a significant enough momentum to seriously undermine the government.
With this march on Saturday and the heavy police presence not to mention the fact that they arrested this anti-corruption blogger leader activist that made the situation much worse you will be seeing OWS situation among the protestors and the police will predictably use heavy handed tactics which will totally inflame the situation as predicted.
A smarter move would be to have a minimal police presence and let them operate like Luckachenko does.
Anatole Karlin is no fan of the liberals but even he reckons there was fraud in the Moscow district.
http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/2011/12/08/duma-elections-opinion-polls/
That said chances are that United Russia would still have won more votes than the opposition parties had the election been entirely above reproach.
Maybe in time Fair Russia will develop into a credible social democratic alternative but for now I don’t see Zhirinovsky or Zhuganov as either a credible or desirable alternative to Putin.
As George W. Bush so memorably said after the winter/spring demonstrations of 2003: “I don’t listen to focus groups”. Aptly too when one considers that two thirds of the US population supported the Iraq invasion that year…
This comment about the opposition bloger Aleksei Navalny from zionbist commentary magazine :
http://www.commentarymagazine.com/2011/12/07/slavic-spring-putin-navalny/
“But Navalny also threatens to hold back the Russian opposition with his casual association with, and his movement’s possible co-option by, the country’s vicious nationalists. Navalny’s own nationalism was the subject of his expulsion from the liberal Yabloko party several years ago (though it is surely not the only reason), and he has cooperated with, marched with, and defended ultranationalist leaders. Russia’s ultranationalists are openly racist and have a troubling history with anti-Semitism as well. Navalny himself, at a recent nationalist rally, caught some flak for saying, in reference to Russian oligarchs who also happened to be Jewish, “This is our country, and we have to eradicate the crooks who suck our blood and eat our liver.” The historical weight of those terms with regard to Jewish “outsiders,” combined with the throngs of neo-Nazis cheering him on, made many wonder if Navalny’s opposition movement was taking a dark turn.”
So the whole direction of the anti putin forces is being left to the reader to assume they are pro western and maybe pro Jewish, but maybe not so much.
@Oldman: I watched every single Russian newshow I could get my hands on (Ren-TV, NTV, Rossia, Channel 1) and my sense is that the demonstrators are really a fantastic hodge-podge of everything imaginable including nationalists, communists, monarchists (?), the Pirate Party of Russia (which was denied registration and which I like a lot), Iabloko (of course), lots of non-party folks disgusted by the corruption, and God knows what else.
There is no doubt at all in my mind that lots of folks in Russia are sick and tired of Medvedev, Putin, “United Russia”, the corruption, the arrogance, the window-dressing, the often half-backed or plain dumb “reforms”, the lack of political diversity and a sense that the system is basically rigged. It is. I agree with that. I just don’t think that its rigged by means of ballot stuffing, but by making sure that he opposition is 90% buffoons and 10% fringe-marginals (ex: Limonov and his National-Bolsheviks).
Likewise, I never denied that there is a important minority of folks in Iran who want government change and even regime change.
But none of that means that the elections were rigged or that the regime in power does not have popular support, if not by a majority then at leas by a plurality.
In the case of Russia that means that the government party “United Russia” as MORE THAN TWICE the votes of the Communists. This is not a “thin margin” even if the BBC claims it it.
The opposition in Russia covers the full political spectrum, from the (now twice imprisoned) GRU Colonel Kvachkov, to Boris Nemtsov. But being simultaneously numerically small and politically widespread, it means that it is – by definition – very very *thin* and that is cannot come up with any plan besides “we hate the regime” and “the elections results piss us off, therefore they were rigged.
“my sense is that the demonstrators are really a fantastic hodge-podge of everything imaginable”
Which once more brings to the forefront Russia’s main problem: it is a country without values of any kind. What do Russians believe in? What do they want? Most people have no idea.
Putin was the only one who made a positive proposal: Russia is a strong and sovereign country, a world power which defends the rule of law in international relations. That is surely insufficient, but it is an acceptable project and it is achievable (in fact, it has already been largely achieved). No one in the opposition has ever made any acceptable proposal for Russia, except some tiny minorities of nationalists (the good ones, usually coming from the military or a guy like Rogozin) or religious people. But even these two minorities usually side with Putin, as I guess they really despise the more publicized opposition (liberals, pro-Western, communist, national-bolsheviks, racist nationalists, etc).
@Carlo: you are absolutely correct in every word you write. In particular your reference to folks rather different from Putin (you correctly mention Rogozin here, I would add Stanislav Govorukhin to that list), who while typical “Putinistas” end up supporting the guy EXACTLY for the two reasons you mention:
a) His “minimal” but reasonable program of having Russia as “a strong and sovereign country, a world power which defends the rule of law in international relations”
b) Everybody else is full of s**t and has nothing doable to offer.
It is in this sense that one could say that Russia is not really democratic and that the elections were ‘unfair’: in the sense that there was simply no alternative offered to Mrs Medvedev and Putin.
Robert has correctly pointed at “Fair Russia” as a non-clownish party and I agree. Mironov & Co. did *remarkably well* in these elections and they are most likely a “real opposition” as opposed to the Commies and the LDPR who are just “for show” (everybody in Russia knows that these two will side with the regime each time they are ordered to do so. Mironov himself said so today).
It will be interesting to see how the regime will try to ‘squeeze-out’ Fair Russia and Mironov or, failing, that to co-opt them in one way or another.
Still, I wonder if the Kremlin did not underestimate the potential of Fair Russia and its leader. If so, than the elections have been a loud wake-up call: there is only much time the Kremlin can relax in the knowledge that the main opposition is lead by two obedient clowns (Zhirinovsky and Zuiganov) and, sooner or later. a real opposition might gradually increase its popularity which, somewhere down the road, might lead to some real headaches to the folks in power today.
“It is in this sense that one could say that Russia is not really democratic and that the elections were ‘unfair’: in the sense that there was simply no alternative offered to Mrs Medvedev and Putin.”
Just like Europe and North America, where there is simply no option out of oligarchic, zionist, pro-imperial regimes. At least in Russia the regime in power thinks a little bit in the people, as living conditions improved a lot in the last decade. While in Europe and the US they are at free fall.
“At least in Russia the regime in power thinks a little bit in the people, as living conditions improved a lot in the last decade. While in Europe and the US they are at free fall.”
And this is another reason the Anglosphere foreign policy elite and punditocracy hate Putin so. They view their populations as something to be bamboozled and looted. If Anglosphere populations actually noticed that Putin improved the lives of scores of millions and demanded the same of their governments, the AFPE&P would be slightly less highly renumerated, which would be utterly intolerable!
The other reason the AFPE&P hate Putin is that Putin caught up with the fraudster Khodorkovsky before he could sell the Russian oil sector to the Anglosphere investor class, then used the money to improve Russian public health and living standards. The AFPE&P view this as an intolerable diversion of money from their pockets, so they have their leashed media snarl at Putin.
Fortunately for Russians, Putin cares nothing for what the AFPE&P think of him.
Karlin’s summary of the election. He reckons the result was legitimate overall despite vote rigging in Moscow and the Caucasus.
http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2011/12/2011121165759137131.htm
Sorry, but what is AFPE&P?
AFPE&P = Anglosphere Foreign Policy Elite & Punditocracy