by M.Khazin
translation by “G’ of М.Хазин, “Может ли быть мир на Украине?”
http://worldcrisis.ru/crisis/1646580
The devaluation of the Ruble and the Yevtushenkov affair have so saturated our mass media that it would seem desirable to stand aside and address a more substantial theme. Namely; under what conditions can the Ukraine know peace? Not just any ‘peace’ but a peace without wholesale disintegration of the country into petty fiefdoms, without a bloodstained dictatorship, without ethnic cleansing and without genocide. In order to answer this question, it is necessary, above all, to look at Kiev and Donetsk.
They should be part of one state. However the 10s of thousands killed and the open exhortations to genocide which have been issued by the dominant political forces in Kiev (for example: the phrase ‘Russians, clear off back to Moscovy’, which is directed at people who are not only currently inhabiting Lugansk and Donetsk but who have lived there for centuries, could be considered, formally from the point of view of international legal norms to fit the definition of genocide and, without doubt, that of ethnic cleansing) render such ‘cohabitation’ within the framework of a usual state simply impossible. The people of Donetsk and Lugansk (we include the Odessa massacre, even though it differs, in part from the others ) will never relinquish their right to justice against those who are guilty of the massacre of civilians and, similarly, the Kievan nationalists are unlikely to stop uttering phrases of the sort: ‘ We’ve barbecued that [Colorado Beetle] bitch.’ or other such endearments.
In theory the only way that Kiev can go back to normal would be in the context of sustained economic growth. In that case it might be possible to brush the nationalist slogans back under the carpet and for everyone to benefit from the resultant financial in-flows, but here Kiev has fallen into a trap of its own making. It is a simple fact that economic growth is only possible in collaboration with Russia and the Eurasian Economic Union. There is simply no other option. There is not even any real perspective for the development of agriculture; one would just need look at the example of Bulgaria, where the climate is noticeably more clement than that in Ukraine. Ukraine finds it impossible to compete with Turkey. Once the European Union association agreement comes into force there will be no means of regulating the influx of Turkish agri-business and the only profitable way to engage in agriculture will be in a vegetable garden. It is sufficient to look at the example set in that neighbouring former Soviet state, Moldova.
Insofar as Kiev has adopted a radically anti-Russian model, the chances of growth in that country are precisely zero. The European Union has no money and judging by the way that the crisis is developing the prognosis is not positive, and even if we were to look, more optimistically, into the medium term at the global economic situation, the European Union is most likely to help out the Eastern European Countries and the Baltic States before it bails out Ukraine. Nothing personal, just business.
And this means that Kievan Nationalism is going nowhere. It has no choice as it will be impossible for it to maintain its grip on power otherwise. Moreover it has achieved some success insofar as the United States has enacted sanctions against Russia and coerced its allies in Europe and the wider world to do likewise. There is only one problem: For how long will they be willing to prosecute these sanctions for the sake of Ukraine? Kiev’s issues will continue to mount, insofar as the only way that it can deal with the growth of democratic sentiment in the South East (it is clear that the struggle is for freedom and democracy, regardless of how discordant that sounds from the point of view of the contemporary Western mass media) is by the use of military force. It is far from certain that this particular problem can be resolved by military force.
In summary we can say that, judging by the development of negative economic trends, the intensity of internal confrontation in Kiev will constantly grow. In turn those wishing to live under their guardianship will become fewer and fewer. The cohesion of the Ukrainian state will melt like snow in the heat of the summer sun. As that happens the state will become more and more aggressive So we expect to see a contradiction in answer to the question that we posed. Is it possible to establish peace in the Ukraine?
I intentionally have not referred in general to Ukrainian nationalists, rather specifically to Kievan Nationalists. The fact is that Galician Nationalists and Kievan Nationalists are not the same. The latter always had significant sources of income (be it the budget of the USSR, Ukraine etc.), however the former have been forced to be much more pragmatic. Furthermore they have been unable to understand that they cannot hold Kiev. This is because any government in Kiev, in correspondence to their stability, will in the first instance, fall not upon the Russians in the Donbass, but rather upon the genuine committed nationalists. Today this is what Poroshenko is doing. This was clear earlier and I wrote about this earlier in the year.
Rather than being an idea (which moreover is distinctly un-appealing to the EU), Nationalism for Kiev is an instrument. There is no requirement for committed nationalists. The requirement is for cynics, who are happy to articulate nationalists’ slogans in order to gain control over the budgetary and gas revenue flows. Thus, regarding the situation in recent months, committed nationalists(which for our purposes we shall name ‘Right Sector’) have come to look more and more seriously at breaking away from Kiev. Moreover, Kiev earlier distributed budgetary money to them (received from Donbass and other regions) and now there is no more budgetary money to distribute.
However Galicia by itself cannot breakaway from Kiev. Kiev, for whom the slogan (‘for the unity of the Ukraine’) has become totemic, will never agree to it. This means that, as well as the rebels in the Donbass, there is also appearing a new force, which is also interested in the collapse of the country. In this way, from the above, we can formulate the picture below of the future Ukraine.
Should the Rebels from the South-East reach an agreement with the Galician nationalists, then they will take power in Kiev. In that case, the insurgents, proponents of the former Soviet Union and the slogan ‘friendship of the Peoples’ will, through the creation of a multi-ethnic ethnic state, put an end to nationalism and re-establish peace in the Ukraine. Galicia, as it were, in gratitude for its assistance, would receive either independence, probably as part of a confederation or quite possibly full independence as a separate state. It is clearly difficult to imagine a state where in some schools they teach that Bandera is a fascist criminal and in others – that he is a hero. But that remaining part of the Ukraine will be a peaceful, unified state, entering, one would imagine the European Economic Area.
Should agreement not be reached and the insurgents not achieve victory (either by circumstance or by result of foreign intervention), then the intensifying confrontation in Kiev will inescapably lead to the break-up of the country into petty fiefdoms with a correspondingly low quality of life and norms of governance. At present we enumerate 5 of these; Novorossiya, Hetmanshina (Cossak, with Kiev as its capital), New Khazaria (under the control of the oligarch Kolomoiski) and Galicia. We also consider one more statelet, Transcarpathia which is likely to be dissected and integrated into neighbouring countries.
But nobody has said that the process of disintegration will stop there. Anyone who doubts it should read Bulgakov. The mentality of the people in the Ukraine has not significantly changed since then. It is difficult to even conceive how a normal man can live in these conditions.
If we believe that the best outcome is a united (that is relatively united, without either the Crimea or Galicia) Ukraine, a Ukraine which is peaceful and prosperous, it is essential that the insurgents take control of Kiev. Until this happens, the war will continue. Unfortunately, there is simply no way of stopping the war and preserving Ukraine until Kiev falls to the insurgents.
Maybe we’ll see some financial arm wrestling first. I wonder whether Russia will use the clause to put pressure on Ukraine?
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/09/24/us-ukraine-crisis-eurobonds-analysis-idUSKCN0HJ1E120140924
The biggest problem is that soem Russian banks own Urkanian assets for $ 30 billion. So is it a boomerang that will come back?
Perhaps, there are deals being made from Russia to Galacia to arrange some outcome that topples Kiev.
Never believe that everything that happens is on the military battlefield.
As we saw with the ceasefire, behind the scenes and away from the front lines, much can be accomplished.
I even suspect “surrender” of key units could open the path to Kiev.
For some time now, Ukie military has been set up by the junta as the fall guys for war crimes and failure. Why wouldn’t they turn the tables on the lunatics in Kiev?
Saker,
I sent you an article about Germany, ‘war guilt’ on film and Nazism in Ukraine. Hope you got it at the usual webmail account.
Also think this English subtitled video from Anti-Maidan YouTube about Aidar battalion rape and murders of women at a Lugansk region golf club is worth a post along with the beheaded bodies found northeast of Donetsk after the Donbas battalion and other Ukie Nazis retreated there.
https://twitter.com/antimaidan_en/status/514142447425708032
Repeated from the prior thread.
The Kulak
Superb article and appraisal of the situation. I have said for months that Kiev must be de-Nazified. There is no other way for Ukraine to survive.
Hi Saker !
He says that it would take foreign intervention for the Pro-Russian insurgents to take Kiev, and I can’t imagine that happening… except the way it was until the ceasefire…
The only other way is for the Pro-Russian insurgents to join with the Right Sector…
But why would Pro-Russian insurgents fight along-side the Right Sector when its that group that is so violent ? …especially in Odessa ?
What he’s saying is that the Kiev group are hypocrites by calling on Nationalism yet aren’t Nationalists, but it would be ok for Insurgents to fight with Right Sector.
He also says the better situation may come about through “circumstance”…I guess that means the future that was unfolding in front of our eyes before the ceasefire.
I hope Ukraine, or whatever it should be called, can find peace somehow, but judging from Libya and Iraq, it is a common occurrence now for countries to exist in a destabilized state for years.
Putin may not tolerate such a destabilized situation… to have 5 different little factions right next door… with crime being the common denominator (except for Don Bass) …and crime isn’t necessarily quiet.
I actually think Don Bass needs to be accepted back into Russia…or that Don Bass itself takes Kiev…with the covert help of Russia.
Right Sector may fight Kiev too, but not united with Don Bass.
First question, are there any reliable scientific sources to settle the issue whether the current population in southeastern Ukraine, the so-called Novorussia, is truly of ethnic Russian origin that has lived there “for centuries”?—Also, are there any reliable scientific sources documenting that there really ever has been a genuine plot by USA or NATO to seize the Crimea and put bases and missiles there aimed at Russia? Or that Ukraine was about to join NATO and bring NATO bases right up against Russian border? We think that has all been pure fantasy rubbish from the start.
—But it served to prepare for the plot truly hatched some years ago, by the Putin regime, to annex Crimea and raise the Novorussia rebellion project as a way to strip Ukraine of valuable shale oil, shale gas, offshore mineral deposits, and also foment warfare in eastern Ukraine to deindustrialize Ukraine, so that in the end, the inhabitants of “liberated” Novorussia, whether they be Russian-speaking or Ukrainian-speaking, will live like impoverished serfs in the shadow of destroyed industrial structures, while Crimea and Novorussia will just be banana republics furnishing raw materials for Russian industries, and the “serfs” will be migrating to Russia for jobs, like poor Mexicans migrate to the USA.—Peace between east and west in Ukraine may be perhaps achieved if the eastern rebels realize they have been duped and used for nothing much more than rapacious grab for resources and destruction of Ukrainian industries, while the western nationalists might be advised to demote Bandera and elevate someone like Mykola Skrypnyk, old bolshevik but Ukrainian patriot and martyr and someone like the historian M. Hrushevskyi and the like, as beacons for the Ukrainian national cause. Whatever Bandera allegedly did or did not do, it is clear he has become a “millstone around the neck” of the genuine cause of the Ukrainian people, because once he is mentioned, everyone ignores the current concerns of the Ukrainian people and only starts raving about what Bandera allegedly did or did not do. He is a huge and harmful distraction, of no value today.
The end of western support is nigh?
http://blogs.rediff.com/mkbhadrakumar/2014/09/24/west-beats-retreat-in-ukraine/
“Suffice to say, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin may be pulling off a major diplomatic victory in getting the West to recognize that Moscow has legitimate interests in Ukraine. The West has no option but to accept that Ukraine’s economy is connected to Moscow with an umbilical cord and without whole-heatred Russian cooperation, it cannot be salvaged.
In retrospect, Moscow did well to ignore the EU’s latest round of sanctions announced three weeks ago. The signs are already there that Poroshenko is eyeing Putin as, perhaps, his most consequential interlocutor.”
Good piece. A trial balloon from Moscow to lure Galicia into a deal? Some might read this that way. And it might be a good solution.
Still, this kind of avoids the strategies and goals of the US and Russia. It makes it sounds like the EU is putting up with the Ukraine in terms of sanctions, when the other way of looking at things is that the banksters and other Anglo-American interests are using their power over the EU to harm Russia, which is a strategic goal.
re: “Should agreement not be reached and the insurgents not achieve victory (either by circumstance or by result of foreign intervention), then the intensifying confrontation in Kiev will inescapably lead to the break-up of the country into petty fiefdoms with a correspondingly low quality of life and norms of governance. At present we enumerate 5 of these; Novorossiya, Hetmanshina (Cossak, with Kiev as its capital), New Khazaria (under the control of the oligarch Kolomoiski) and Galicia. We also consider one more statelet, Transcarpathia which is likely to be dissected and integrated into neighbouring countries.”
New Khazaria sounds like an artificial creation based on one oligarch’s wealth and power. That wealth and power could cease to play a part or he could shuffle off this mortal coil. All it would take is a relatively minor investment of Russian money and power to get an area from Kharkov to Odessa if things get bad – assuming the US doesn’t make a fight over Odessa.
Perhaps we will get to see if Russia puts its money where its mouth is. If she puts billions into Novorossiya and offers tens of billions for a non-hostile to friendly regime, a lot of oligarchs and professionals might change from being on the West’s payroll to being on Russia’s. Part of the deal needs to be the textbooks and media change.
Should agreement not be reached and the insurgents not achieve victory (either by circumstance or by result of foreign intervention), then the intensifying confrontation in Kiev will inescapably lead to the break-up of the country into petty fiefdoms with a correspondingly low quality of life
Isn’t this what the US wants? and also isn’t this what the US would like to do to Russia .. make it manageable and somewhat westernised, at the mercy of the oligarchs, so that they can NATOize it in readyness for access to China .. how long before Russia and China just decide to dump all the dollars they have and sink the great federal ship? .. or am I just dreaming?!!
I,ll ask this again,as I couldn’t see it on TV/S.why is this web/blog NOT seen in the Ukrainian language?Not every Ukrainian wants to even look at Russian,with the propaganda fed to him/her so far.Surely this is equally the most important place to be targeting with the truth they so badly need to hear? To me,this situation reeks of disaffection for the truth.
XbNB
Poroshenko’s visit and speech at best was comical and what he got from Uncle Sam was nothing short of chicken feed of just $50 million. Even tiny Burundi gets more than double that amount as aid. Still that insult is a lesson well learnt that neither the likes EF U Nuland and Obama can never be trusted. Better then to have good neighbours! http://tinyurl.com/o9sfo7f
New York Times reports that Kiev has been kidnapping random civilians in order to exchange them as POWs. What it doesn’t say is the reason that Kiev doesn’t have any real prisoners to exchange is that they have killed them all.
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/25/world/europe/ukraine-prisoner-swaps-russian-separatists.html?_r=1
..
the first flaw in this argument is here:
“Insofar as Kiev has adopted a radically anti-Russian model, the chances of growth in that country are precisely zero. The European Union has no money…”
what is money? money is credit, ie, debt. what determines credit? the willingness of institutions- public or private- to make loans. this precisely has been the business of Charles Bausman, the Saker’s new ally, whose specialty has been financing agribusiness. furthermore, if the ECB wants to, it can print money just like the Fed does; it just doesn’t want to.
the “radically anti-Russian model” issue is irrelevant. what’s relevant is whether or not Ukraine is regarded as credit worthy; by whom; and the terms of investment. the essay already concedes that Ukraine is attractive to Turkish capital. the real question is if investment, which has typically taken the form of joint-ventures, will generate sufficiently broad-based economic activity to legitimize power .
the writer doesn’t even approach the issue of “disaster capitalism”, which is parenthetically updated re Ukraine by Nomi Prins below.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SFtUfjFqB50
Bogdan
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The very problem is that the Galicians don’t consider themselves as “Galicians” per say, but as Ukrainians, the purest of Ukrainians, a very sectarian and exclusive definition of ukraine that is absolutely fantasy when you consider the reality of Ukraine’s diversity.
It’s leads logically these petty ethnic cleansing attempts.
Good that Bulgakov is given a reference, hopefully for the Heart of a dog.
Perhaps Mr. Khazin’s vision is somewhat tunnelish, although understandable.
If the opponents have declared war on the biosphere.
If “Ukraine” is part of the biosphere.
If “Ukraine” is included within the opponents.
Then peace in “Ukraine” is not possible.
A link to a summary of Bulgakov’s novel and quick overview of the historical events it concerns. Assuming this is what the author meant.
http://www.masterandmargarita.eu/en/09context/witten.html
American Kulak… 2014 05:11
Look forward very much to reading your article on Germany and also on the Scottish referendum you mentioned.
pb
The main question is which parts of former Ukraine will be able to survive (virtually biologically!) coming winter. No gas, no coal, no money, substantial part of grain sold in order to finance war, the rest is infested with some fungus… EU can’t support 10000 refugees at warm Lampedusa island, let alone 40 000 000 citizens of frozen Ukraine! It’s impossible to predict exact structure of coming chaos, but definitely it’s going out of normal economic models (GDP, exchange rate, rate of employment etc.) There will be other variables in place – such as how many calories has human body…
Just in:
http://amanpour.blogs.cnn.com/2014/09/24/exclusive-to-win-release-of-mh17-bodies-and-black-boxes-malaysia-pm-had-to-act-alone/
Peace will be achieved only after the last oligarch in the world has been hanged with the entrails of the last corrupt politician
Broadcasting is like sex – projecting DNA with the possibility to recombine.
Mr. Khazin’s projection of datastreams are seen by some as useful in that regard.
Mr. Khazin does have other audiences in Russia which include, but are not necessarily limited to, some youngish intellectuals which often see the content of his datastreams as plausable and of value.
Standards at MGU and throughout Russian education have suffered in the last 30 years or so.
Mr. Khazin is an example of this including by not initially defining his terms of reference, such as “peace” or “the Ukraine”.
Fortunately not all in Russia and elsewhere suffer from Mr. Khazin’s predeliction.
Has anyoen noticed how Poroshenko has aged 10 years in the last few months? The guy looks totally beat. BUT he says peace is possible.. Maybe it is.. Once you get rid of the fanatics, the rest will just want peace and prosperity. And we should all wish him the best if that is what he truely desires. Yea we know he is only the point man and not the boss. Still peace is always better than anything else. To most people on the planet anyway.
Colinjames said…25 September, 2014 12:10
“A link to a summary of Bulgakov’s novel and quick overview of the historical events it concerns. Assuming this is what the author meant.
http://www.masterandmargarita.eu/en/09context/witten.html“
As quite often appears to be the case, Mr. Khazin doesn’t follow intellectual standards of rigour and reference.
Perhaps he meant the White Guards which was based in Kiev and less prone to the deism of Master and Margarita.
Then again he may be referencing the Heart of a dog since it is about trying to make another species to be “just like us”, much beloved of the opponents, or even about the rigours of being out in the cold without sustenance, or knickers in the case of the young female comrade.
So now the UAE joined the coalition of the switch and bait. This is the same UAE that banned the brotherhood and jailed 30 of them just for opening a local chapter.. And this country is now bombing the enemies of the syrian brotherhood? Also IS makes advances across the board so we can already guess who the US is bombing. They are also bombing homes used by IS before but left months ago just so people dont wonder.. And a few civilians for good measure because without collateral damager whats the fun in bombing?
Defendants do not have the right to appeal.
http://www.punchng.com/news/uae-jails-30-over-membership-of-muslim-brotherhood/
A Look Inside The Secret Deal With Saudi Arabia That Unleashed The Syrian Bombing
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/25/2014 – 08:17
For those to whom the recent US campaign against Syria seems a deja vu of last summer’s “near-war” attempt to ouster its president Bashar al-Assad, which was stopped in the last minute due to some very forceful Russian intervention and the near breakout of war in the Mediterranean between US and Russian navies, it is because they are. And as a reminder, just like last year, the biggest wildcard in this, and that, direct intervention into sovereign Syrian territory, or as some would call it invasion or even war, was not the US but Saudi Arabia – recall from August of 2013 – “Meet Saudi Arabia’s Bandar bin Sultan: The Puppetmaster Behind The Syrian War.” Bin Sultan was officially let go shortly after the 2013 campaign to replace Syria’s leadership with a more “amenable” regime failed if not unofficially (see below), but Saudi ambitions over Syria remained. That much is revealed by the WSJ today in a piece exposing the backdoor dealings that the US conducted with Saudi Arabia to get the “green light” to launch its airstrikes against ISIS, or rather, parts of Iraq and Syria.”The process gave the Saudis leverage to extract a fresh U.S. commitment to beef up training for rebels fighting Mr. Assad, whose demise the Saudis still see as a top priority.”
The traitors around Putin- you know, the ones that told Putin not to send in the peacekeepers on day one- insist that Ukraine must stay unified. This is why they do so…
A United Ukraine remains a single nation under International Law, and as a member of the UN, Ukraine must have a single government entity with overall power and responsibility for the entire nation. All ‘devolved’ regions, ‘independent’ states and the like must, by Law, be subservient to the powers and wishes of the federal government.
Let me make this clearer. The US stooges in Kiev will have the Right, under every UN recognised Law, to place military and police forces under their direct control in any part of the Ukraine, including Novorussia. No internal ‘treaty’ or ‘understanding’ can override this Right.
It gets worse, much much worse. The stooges in Kiev have the absolute legal Right to seek assistance from any other legally recognised government. So Kiev can form a military alliance with other stooge governments in the region, especially Poland, and legally bring forces from any of these nations into the Ukraine to help establish the rule of Kiev.
What does the UN say about the ‘means’. Look to the Holocaust in Gaza, where the sick racist depravities of Israel are legally entitled to consider the West Bank and Gaza as part of their nation state. The UN fully justified the monstrous Jews of Israel, with the full backing and military support of Germany, France, the UK and USA, using Genocide and mass destruction of Human settlements as a means of ‘pacifying’ Gaza.
So, in the very near future, Novorussia will be attacked by the combined might of Central Europe NATO members (but not as part of an official NATO operation). Gaza will look like a picnic in comparison, as every town and city in Novorussia is flattened.
And Putin- well he will be given the same deal as Assad in the recent US bombings in Syria. In other words, use any aspect of air defence against attacking proxy-NATO forces, and Russia is immediately at war with the West.
Let me ask you all a question. Why do certain people argue strongly that the Czechoslovakia solution- the peaceful division of an ex-Soviet State into new nations along ethnic lines- must never be applied to Ukraine? Why must East Ukraine be kept as an open sore, inflicting maximum damage on Russia day after day?
The statement “East Ukraine is ultimately the business of the people of Ukraine only”- a statement made repeatedly by senior people around Putin, could not be more cancerous. It may make ‘moral’ sense in a decent, fair world, but our current world is anything but this.
Ukraine can never have peace, because the Demons of the West have their fangs sunk so deeply into a part of Ukraine that no action by good people can ever dislodge. The Demons must be allowed to tear off this ‘chunk of meat’ so the rest of the body can heal.
The insanely brave people of Novorussia have won every battle, but they will lose the war if Ukraine remains united. Russia, against all logic, insists on respecting ever aspect of International Law all the time, which means Russia can ultimately do nothing to save a Novorussia that remains part of Ukraine.
This is OT, but Saker, when you get a minute, I ask that you take a look at this article by Brandon Smith at Alt-market.com:
http://www.alt-market.com/articles/2326-when-war-erupts-patriots-will-be-accused-of-aiding-qthe-enemyq
Here’s the paragraphs that caught my eye:
1) First, RT is relentless in its coverage of corruption within Western governments, but rarely if ever reports anything negative on the Russian establishment. I’m sorry, but Russia’s economic policy is dominated by central bankers who are advised directly by Goldman Sachs and who are avid members of the IMF and the BIS. The RDIF (Russian Direct Investment Fund), manages billions in investments in Russia, works closely with Goldman Sachs, and the managing director of this institution is former IMF head and SDR advocate Dominique Strauss-Kahn.
Vladimir Putin has openly called for the IMF’s Special Drawing Rights basket currency to replace the dollar, demanded that Ukraine take loans from the IMF denominated in SDR’s, and has a long time friendship with Mr. NWO himself, Henry Kissinger. The only “conflict” Russia has expressed with the globalists at the IMF is that it wishes to be more fully included in the SDR basket system, which has been the planned intention of the IMF anyway. All of this, and RT doesn’t have any hard questions about the loyalties of its own government?
2) Second, the fact based reporting of RT, at least when it comes to the Western side of the globalist establishment, mimics the alternative journalism growing in popularity in the the U.S. At bottom, RT is a newcomer to the world of independent news analysis, but it is ultimately NOT independent, and most of what they do amounts to little more than regurgitated content from more original and insightful Western independent media sources. The Atlantic article above, very cleverly, makes it sound as if it is we witless writers in America who are getting all our info and inspiration from RT. And this is where we begin to see the true nature of the psy-op…
3) Third, because RT mimics our independent media so well, it appeals greatly to a large percentage of liberty movement activists, who tend to forget or are simply unaware that Russia is as much a part of the problem as our own government. There are many liberty proponents who will angrily defend Russia and RT without question simply because RT “speaks their language”, so Russia must be on their side.
I don’t know enough to know if Smith’s viewpoint on Goldman Sachs in Russia is correct or not.
This article mentions another in the Atlantic, which I haven’t read yet but will.
http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2014/09/russia-putin-revolutionizing-information-warfare/379880/
Maybe you could discuss this at your leisure. Many thanks,
Rasmus
When is the Russian representative scheduled to speak at the UN?
“Unfortunately, there is simply no way of stopping the war and preserving Ukraine until Kiev falls to the insurgents.”
—
Well, excellent. Then why the hell did Russia prevent insurgents from doing just that ???? At least they could have taken Mariupol, Kharkov, Zaporozhye…. Why do insurgents not take Odessa, the key strategic city for Russia? Taking Odessa would mean direct unification with Transdniestria, and complete change of balance in the Balkans! And it is in the Balkans where Russia has her only allies and friends in Europe. I guarantee that Greece, Bulgaria, Serbia, Montenegro, Macedonia and Republika Srpska are supporting Russia (their populations are). Is Russia thinking about that? I hope somebody does.
Greetings from Serbia,
The Wend.
Ukraine is now more than ever a geopolitical battleground between Russia and the West. Reminds me of the Armenian Kingdom unfortunately lodged between the Romans and Parthians for centuries in ancient times, constantly the object of machinations, plots, intirgues and frequently open war. The peoples of the Donbass and Ukraine will see no end of misery due to this situation. Their personal interests, hopes and ambitions have been and will continue to be trampled over mercilessly by the greater powers.
I watched a televised speech by Poroschenko from Kiew this afternoon (25.09). It was translated into English. Unfortunately I missed his opening remarks. So I don’t know whether or not he addressed the problems in the East of the country or not. The only clue was the banner at the bottom of the screen which said something to the effect that the ‘revolution’ was over. I didn’t hear a word about NATO.
He spoke mainly of his ‘2020’ program. That is the program to be followed to get UE into the EU by 2020. He spoke about the ’60 different reform packages’ that must be approved before it would be possible. He spoke about reforming the judiciary, stamping out corruption by creating a ‘Ukie FBI’, stamping out the oligarchs, rebuilding the culture of UE and strengthening the military, making it easier for new businesses to form, opening up UE to external investment among other things. He spoke about ‘UE being very far behind’ the rest of Europe and used Poland as an example of a country that had moved forward from Soviet times into the modern world. He said UE was 200 years behind. (I didn’t know there was a UE 200 yrs ago.) He said there was ‘no going back’ and called on his fellow citizens to make the sacrifices necessary to get the country on track. He spoke of the laws his staff was prepared to be offered to the new parliament in November. He basically said ‘we either do this or it is back to Russia’.
It was all broad brush and vague. There were no specific programs or announcements. For example, he cited an instance where an accused killer of civilians was let free by the judiciary and how he had chided the judiciary for doing that. And told the judiciary they had to clean house. But that is as far as it went.
In the end, I was taking bets with myself on how long it will be before he is found in some trash container or on a flight to some neutral land. It was difficult to determine if he believed any of this stuff that he was reading off of a monitor and I found myself almost feeling sorry for the poor fool. I think, he thinks that he is in charge. There was nothing appealing to anyone in this speech. So who did he make it for? For the EU? For the US? For the IMF?
The situation of abduction, if we are to believe Colonel Cassad quoting Mozgovoi, is now upon both sides, seems as a policy of subjugation of those who refuse to abide to top down impositions of bureaucrats either imposed by Kiev or Moscow. It very much seems that even if we not spouse a Marxian approach in a word of oligarchs, it very much seems that NR is to be handed back in a plate covered by blood to Akhmetov and the Kremlin’s take of eurasianism is that it is a multipolarity to serve the oligarchs,
Excellent post. Keep focused on Syria.
Sleight of hand magic trick muddling things up in Ukraine.
Is the real battle to remove Russia (and Iran) taking place in Syria. Energy via Syria to Europe seems to be Obama’s (KSA’s) checkmate move.
Saker: What’s do you think the US strategy is in Syria and by extension Russia?
What are Russia’s possible counter moves?
There could be People who think that Peace in Ukraine can be helped if Scottish Nationalists try to gain their Independence from a Mob of Murderers in London, who Rigged the Independence Referendum, and who helped Engineer a Coup in Ukraine, and who want to Murder Syrians, and want to overthrow the Legitimate Democratically Elected Syria Government.
They could learn from the Protests as happened in Ukraine, but it must be Peaceful, but they will say Independence From Murderers, and Demand that All British Politicians call an Immediate Elections, and that these Murderers Must Not stand for Reelection.
They want Scotland’s Independence, because there was a Rigged Election, and they want it by means of British Legislation rather than another Referendum, and the Private Scottish Citizens will Fund them with a Daily wage of the before Tax Average British Wages.
Meanwhile more hopeful signs that there is another Germany, resisting the destruction of European-Russian relations by the US:
https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2014/09/25/the-other-germany/
Kind regards,
Dutch
@ wildebeest 25 September, 2014 04:48
Maybe we’ll see some financial arm wrestling first. I wonder whether Russia will use the clause to put pressure on Ukraine?
Not likely. Although the banking sector was expected to take huge losses, Mr. Putin instructed Russian banks operating in Ukraine to stay put ;assist in maintain economic stability.
Putin: Russian Banks Must Stay in Ukraine to Ensure Economic Stability
“Updated 6:36 p.m. Moscow Time
NOVO OGARYOVO (outside Moscow), September 22 (RIA Novosti) – Russian banks should continue working in Ukraine despite current difficulties because their exit from the country would hurt Ukrainian economy, President Vladimir Putin said Monday.
“The work, without doubt, should continue. Primarily, because Russian banks make 30 percent of the Ukrainian banking sector, and if we suspend our work, it would be an additional, serious hit at the Ukrainian economy,” Putin said at a meeting with the head of Russia’s VTB bank, Andrei Kostin.
The president stressed that Russia was interested in having a reliable and stable partner.
“That is why, despite all challenges, the work should continue, especially since, as I understand, we have established partnership with National Bank of Ukraine,” Putin added.”
. . . . .
think long term
Take time to saddle the horse.
Unlike the AZ leaders, Mr. Putin’s actions demonstrate he does not make up ‘Strategy on the run.’
= = = = = = =
On the question of peace in Ukraine? Here is the most profound question: Ukraine was considered the gateway to the neocons’ Russia objectives, but Will the U.S. Middle East Quagmire divert neocon efforts to pressure and isolate Russia? Russia and China, without firing a shot at the AZs, have clearly won.
As I write (12:00 noon EDT): after 2 months of bombs dropped in 3 days over Syria, the Breaking News at Reuters is this:
Pentagon says will take a while to be able to say “winning” against Islamic State [read: we will need more F22s]
Wither Ukraine? Return of the war that never ended, Iraq and with a new penchant for Syria, — the associated costs will put Ukraine on the back burner. The under estimated costs of the Iraq campaign, 2003-2012, placed at over 3 trillion. The resurrection will fail.
2 good reads at Asia Times:
Peter Van Buren, a personal account – he has a good handle on likely outcome: Apocalypse Now
Pepe Escobar: Operation Tomahawk The Caliph
and related
Islamic State drags Obama back into Mideast quagmire
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/09/25/us-syria-crisis-war-insight-idUSKCN0HK1TM20140925
= = = = = =
AM
I have read and re-read and commented and un-commented (to myself) each and every sentence of this piece of whatever-you-want-to-call-it. This guy goes round in circles answering and un-answering his own questions (raising and knocking down his own straw men) and creating a smokescreen of nothing to come to the conclusion that “it is essential that the insurgents take control of Kiev”. I would suggest to this wannabe political strategist that he first propose that the insurgents establish a successful regime in the East before moving West. That the insurgents create a stable – government, military, social structure, employment, infrastructure, manufacturing, trading base and a sense of security in their own part of the country before moving on to Kiew. If you remove Galicia, Donetsk, Luhansk, Crimea (as he suggests) and you might as well remove the southeast portion and say to hell with Kiew then you will have peace. LOL
Paul II,
I think you have touched on something I have suspected for a little while. Putin exercised hard power in Crimea and now it will have to be a soft power battle. The solution perhaps could be leading us to a Dayton style agreement where autonomous republics within ukraine will be able to exercise veto powers over their country’s foreign policy, whilst being able to conduct a very liberal and broad economic policy. This would keep ukraine out of NATO and eu whilst giving Putin an opportunity to develop, trade and invest in pro Russian areas. Even if the eu and USA want to compete on the soft battlefield the ukies will know it was Russia’s lead that improved their lives. If they don’t they will know where to look for a future.
I have been saying all along that what Ukraine needs is a dividing line from Zhitomir to Transnistria, with Ukraine left to the west of the line minus Transcarpathia if they please, and a new state (Novorossiya) to the east of the line including Donbass, Odessa, and Kiev. This would be a division that is economically and linguistically sane.
Thus the rebel imperative “HA KNEB” – “TO KIEV”.
“Feel the love :-)”
-RU considering a law to be to confiscate foreign business assets on RU soil. DAX craters 200 pts.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-09-25/russia-asset-freeze-threat-sends-dax-reeling
-RU tells EU to stop diverting gas to UE or suffer gas shut down.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-09-25/no-more-foreplay-russia-threatens-european-gas-supply-disruptions
looks like the s**it is starting to hit the fan.
Slightly OT. Vaclav Klaus: the EU is at war with liberty. An interview with the former Czech president, possibly the West’s last truly outspoken leader.
” It’s not just on the economy that Europe has got it wrong, says Klaus. He doesn’t agree with the western elite’s current hostility towards Russia, which he believes is based on a false and outdated view of the country. ‘I remember one person in our country who at one moment was minister of foreign affairs, telling me that he hated communism so much that he was not even able to read Dostoevsky. I have remembered that statement for decades and I am afraid that the current propaganda against Russia is based on a similar argument and way of thinking. I spent most of my life in a communist Czechoslovakia under Soviet domination. But I differentiate between the Soviet Union and Russia. Those who are not able to understand the difference are simply not looking with open eyes. I always argue with my American and British friends that although the political system in Russia is different from the system in our countries and we wouldn’t be happy to live in such a system, to compare the current Russia with Leonid Brezhnev’s Soviet Union is stupid.’
He says, with finality: ‘The US/EU propaganda against Russia is really ridiculous and I can’t accept it.’ “
http://www.spectator.co.uk/features/9322652/europe-needs-systemic-change/
There is a surging perception that the Kremlin is in working to keep UKR united as a principle above all contexts of NR and UKR itself as a self-immovilizing posture. Khazin, Mozgovoi, Dugin, etc.and the folks like us who are observing and following this from afar while our guts are revolting, seem to be sharing this perception. On one hand EU is acknowledging that their highly subsided agricultural policies are in shambles following Russia interdictions, and their GDP is decreasing, secessionism growing in assertiveness, and Russia is all too shyly have now come to declare that gas provisions may be reduced if countertransfer to UKR persists, and no assertive policy to protect NR but very much seems that slowly disarming the rebellious. It very much resembles Catalonia 1937, when the CP removed from the front the International Brigades and placed a regular army with no real political support from the locals. Indeed, Putin has to protect Russia, but as a separate issue of NR’s survival, it is a policy of courting defeat, and the unity of UKR seems,as Khazin puts, beyond accomplishment ir not by NR marching over kiev, ifnot Dnipro to start with.
If Churkin comes to give a too soft speech at the General Assembly or Lavrov himself, pls let us know where can be get tickets for another planet, this one has been sold already to a dual logic in Bush-USAIAN mode (or you are friend or you ar3 foe) while simultaneously plays with paradox in a perverse mode. Russia and EUA, wake up!! AND THE WORLD AS WELL!!
Patagonian
The best if that Kulaksland will broak up finally. There are people there who are of diffrent stock. They hate each other.
Ukraina meaning at the end of the country(Poland) is a fiction.
To break it into ethnic parts makes sense: Kozaks, Khazars(Jews), Polaks, etc. will solve the problem. Let each one care for themselves.
Anonymous @ 25 September, 2014 14:20
” Russia, against all logic”.
Its always comforting when an opponent posits omniscience – in this case knowledge of all logic.
There is a News Article on the Forbes Magazine Website, and it deals with what Scotland should do, and I cannot give an opinion, because I am not an Economist at http://www.forbes.com/sites/francescoppola/2014/09/22/what-scotland-should-have-done-and-still-should-do/ .
With regards to English Only Votes for English Laws, the Royal Commission on the Constitution concluded in 1973, that Any issue in Westminster involving expenditure of public money is of concern to all parts of the United Kingdom since it may directly affect the level of taxation and indirectly influence the level of a region’s own expenditure, and there are therefore no specifically English domestic matters involving public expenditure at http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/24/english-votes-english-laws-absurdity-separatist .
I should have written: The Scots could learn from the Protests which happened in Ukraine, but it must be Peaceful at the British Parliament, and they should say they have the Human Right to have their Independence From Cold Blooded Premeditated Murderers, and Demand that All British Politicians call an Immediate Election, and that these Murderers Must Not stand for Reelection, and Americans can make their Own Version of this at http://www.infowars.com/u-s-propaganda-enters-into-insane-irrational-overdrive-in-attempt-to-sell-war-in-syria/ .
I should have written: They want Scotland’s Independence, because there was a Rigged Referendum, and they want it by means of British Legislation rather than another Referendum, and the Private Scottish Citizens will Fund them with their Legitimate Expenses, plus a Daily wage of the before Tax Average British Wages.
basho said…@ 25 September, 2014 15:01
“So who did he make it for? For the EU? For the US? For the IMF?”
Most likely for himself in the hope that others see that a useful fool can be well – useful.
Thanks peter at 06:33 for the link, interesting article speculating that maybe the US is backing away a little in Ukraine:
http://blogs.rediff.com/mkbhadrakumar/2014/09/24/west-beats-retreat-in-ukraine/
I haven’t read enough of Bhadrakumar to know if I trust his perceptions.
I do like Ziad Fadel at Syria Perspective, however. For those following the Syria moves, his article yesterday I found almost breathtaking – literally I was holding my breath as I read my way through it. It’s an explanation of what Damascus is actually doing right now in terms of the US airstrikes. Fadel is very plausible concerning Syria policy I think.
http://www.syrianperspective.com/2014/09/u-s-coordinating-with-syria-on-air-strikes-maybe.html
Both articles suggest a certain restraint coming over US thinking at the moment – obviously if so this comes during a great deal of existing momentum of course. I hardly dare to think that the US could give up any of its current recklessness. Maybe if I could see something similar in Israel. And undoubtedly the US firmly retains its principal weapon of treachery. But even so…
We seem to be in a time either of many things happening in the background, or of an increase in our understanding and access to good reportage on what has always been background movements. It seems right now to be an important time, even more than usual, to see beneath the surface of events.
From Radio Free Europe, “September 25, Ukrainian parliament speaker Oleksandr Turchynov signed a lustration bill that had been adopted by parliament on September 16. Under the law, up to 1 million public servants, including cabinet ministers, will be screened for loyalty ….” Humm … the lustration bill, trash-binning of cabinet members, and the Heroic Great Greek Battles that frequent the Rada, are not encouraging signs. I agree with Shooter, the only way to achieve a modicum of stability in all of Ukraine is to have a lustration of Nazis. Turchynov and his ilk are obviously not willing to negotiate and thus this peace is a sham.
Lustration: [lu.strA.shon] (noun) Related to negative feelings, most notably comprised of contradictory emotions of lust and frustration arising from being incapable of purging ones political opponents from office. However, its slang usage is by far more common. In the vernacular, it is associated with elderly males unable to climax. Physiologically, negative feelings occur during the unsuccessful, but valiant act of attempting to perform fellatio on a flaccid member. The outward appearance of advanced symptoms are noticeable when he accuses her of lacking the required enthusiasm to persevere, “If at first you do not succeed, keep on sucking until you do succeed,” are typical coach like messages of encouragement. It is not uncommon that feeling of inadequacy and frustration also occur in partners when they walk away with lockjaw. General recommendations of avoiding such negative lustrative feelings are the use of Viagra and or the removal of your partner’s dentures. Entomology: Ukrainian. Derived from bastardized Latin.
au contraire, there is lots of money floating around, trillions of USD, in the hands of multinational corporations and their owners. The selling off of Ukraine’s resources by her corrupt trustees in government to the multinationals for a fraction of their worth and in return of directorships is the name of the game. The Ukrainian people of all ethnicities are to be disposed of their birthright if the Kiev junta installed by the multinational interests, in this case called the U.S. State Department and CIA, have their way. Otherwise it is the status quo with the Russian system of oligarchs…. or the people can form a new way of governing themselves, perhaps cooperatively.
The cosmetic IS bombings in Syria are a face saver for the US in exchange for de-escalation with Russia.
Cunning Lavrov has disciplined the spoiled brats for the second time in just a year.
De-escalation signs:
EU contemplates removal of sanctions.
Qatar says their gas is no competition for Russia’s.
Porky expects lasting peace.
Case closed.
(until the next brilliant neocon plan).
Sorry, this made me laugh. I am not laughing at the victims, but find it a good way to get the message across.
“The information war for Ukraine” – Satirical German program “Die Anstalt” (Eng Subs)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jSOfQ7tgTLg#t=481 Not just German MSM, but applies to all official Western Media sites. applies to all MSM.
I can not think of anything more atrocious than New Khazaria led by Kolomoiski.
Ugh
Now I can see, from this article, Putin’s endgame of a unified Ukraine. 5 failed states is no good for Russia on their western border
“The information war for Ukraine” – Satirical German program “Die Anstalt” (Eng Subs)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jSOfQ7tgTLg#t=481 Sorry, it made me laugh and applies to all MSM.
Sorry to repeat comment, but I forgot to initial it.
AM
@wildebeest.
Don’t you think a more likely scenario is for Ukraine to refuse to pay the Eurobond based on the odious debt clause? Yanukovich being the “tar baby” for 2 decades of Uki kleptocracy
No way will or can Ukraine afford 3 billion plus the extra 5.3 those deadbeats owe for Russian gas.
This crew ain’t paying a single ruble
While largely agreeing with the article’s perpsective, particularly on prospects for economic growth within EU-Turkish Customs Zone, I differ on a few points:
1) Kolomoiski-stan, or more offensively “New Khazaria”, is a canard, that in no way is the foundation of a nation-state entity even with only marginal independence ala Bosnia. Odessa and Dnipropetrvosk are part of Novorussia, regional power brokers are a fact of nearly every nation-state, there is nothing special here which would lead to independence of “New Khazaria”, rather than the potential continuance of Kolomoiski’s power being a political fact of life for Kiev or Novorussia (either containing Dnipro and Odessa).
2) “the only way that [Kiev] can deal with the growth of democratic sentiment in the South East …is by the use of military force.” should be understood more broadly (outside of context of ATO in Donbass) as including police-state repression and repression by “unofficial” fascist gangs.
3) I disagree that unity of Ukraine state borders, excluding Galicia and Crimea, remains some important goal, even from Russian state perspective which the article implicitly accepts.
Novorussia was attached to Kiev in a process not ultimately different than how Crimea was, if preceding it by another generation, and with a higher degree of “ethnic Ukrainain influx” during the process of settling Novorussia (following conquest of Khanate/Ottoman territories). Novorussia’s identity is distinctly different than Kievan Ukraine, despite Ukrainian nationalist (during and after USSR) attempts at “nation building”, “Ukrainicizing” place-names of cities which were founded as Russian cities by Russians, etc.
The same factors discussed in the article, which would lead to a Russia/EAU-aligned “Unified Ukraine”, would apply just as well to a “Rump Kievan Ukraine” that excludes all of Novorussia. Thus, TWO independent, more-or-less EAU-aligned states (possibly 3, depending on Galicia’s development) could very well be the end result.
I feel the writer is ultimately acquiescing to a false binary dichotomy between Russian and Ukrainian ethnoses, i.e. that unified Ukraine under Kiev must be maintained because Novorussia as a whole is also majority “ethnic Ukrainian” so there is no sense in two majority ethnic Ukrainian states. That binary opposition is of course a false imposition over a continuous variation of linguistic and cultural patterns, a binary “choice” which Novorussians in particular may feel they don’t need to make, as it doesn’t correspond to their reality.
@American Kulak
If Aidar has MRE’s to eat you know they are getting American weapons to murder with.
New Khazaria sounds like an artificial creation based on one oligarch’s wealth and power. That wealth and power could cease to play a part or he could shuffle off this mortal coil. All it would take is a relatively minor investment of Russian money and power to get an area from Kharkov to Odessa if things get bad – assuming the US doesn’t make a fight over Odessa.
====
1. New Khazaria is Israeli lebensraum as more and more people decide that living in Israel isn’t worth it. Esp. if Iran gets the bomb
2. Don’t see Putin allowing 5 states in Ukraine if he won’t allow 2 (Uki and NR). It needs to stay intact and decentralized
3. America ain’t firing a single bullet against Odessa. Obama has said nyet to Pol Pot Shenko
4. Is it true that Pol Pot Shenko was warned that his significant holdings would be nationalized in Russia if he didn’t change his tune?
I will say it again. The US foreign policy has been, since before WWII, to control the energy of the world. That is why there is so much opposition to renewable energy in the US. It would cut out the big energy companies.
If the US creates enough chaos in Ukraine the gas lines will be shut down. That will give an opportunity for all those LNG export terminals along the US’s Atlantic Coast to ship something somewhere. The US’s biggest goal is controlling the energy in Central Asia. Why do you think that the US has been banging up in Afghanistan for fifteen years? Because Osama bin Laden once lived in a cave there? No, because in the 90s, probably long before that, they wanted the TAPI pipeline (Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan, India) to supply energy to Southern Asia.
If the US is able to put a pliant enough regime in Russia then all that oil and gas is theirs to plunder. Ukraine is only a stepping stone for American oligarchs.
When you try to make heads or tails out of this seemingly incoherent violence that the US keeps creating, remember it’s a tool to make money.
In fact, there is plenty of oil and gas in this world (but not endless air and water). Shutting down Iraq and Iran, and now Russia, keeps prices inflated, as does destroying the alternative energy industry. Remember the plans for a gas pipeline from Iran, through Iraq and Syria, to the Mediterranean? That, too, would have competed with western energy (and that would include America’s allies, the House of Saud, Qatar and the Kuwaiti royal family.
If you don’t think that the “uprisings” in Chechnya and among the Uiyghurs don’t have to do with Russia’s pipeline systems through that region of the world and haven’t been fed and supplied by the CIA, then you don’t understand the nature of greed.
A long time ago, during the Vietnam War, it became painfully obvious that US foreign can be against the interests of most of its citizens.
Can someone answer me this question?
Why are European countries like Slovakia, Poland and the rest willing to risk gas shutoff or slowdowns on behalf of Ukraine with their reverse gas flows?
It seems to me like cutting off your own nose to spite your face.
Maybe you can do that in July or August, but doesn’t winter start in 2 weeks?
Pumping Russian gas into underground storage to prepare your own country for whatever happenes. Why subsidize Ukraine?
How is Fico in Slovakia going to explain to his people they don’t have gas this winter b/c they gave it over to Ukraine who doesn’t pay for gas they already owe
In November, if Ukraine hasn’t defaulted, their currency will be even more worthless
Fascinating but one note. Ukraine didn’t get the U.S. to initiate sanctions. That was hatched in Washington by the advocates of a “new Cold War.” That’s a crucial understanding that I hope the author realizes. Otherwise, this is really intriguing.
So the article seems to be justifying screwing over Novorussia because Russian state interests can be served otherwise…
Bigger picture, consider history of Soviet Ukraine whereby Novorussia was originally attachd to Kiev, and the Ukrainian nationalism that was allowed to flourish… Originally a “tame” Ukrainian nationalism subservient to USSR, but whose legacy imposing “Ukrainian identity” over Novorussian territory, ultimately coinciding with anti-Russian (people) fascist and anti-Russian (state) EU-client agenda.
Let’s nip the problem at the bud: Ukrainian state borders have been an ill-advised sham since created, and have no lasting legitimacy. “Rump Ukraine” Kiev will still face economic reality of needing to cozy up to Moscow, with or without Novorussia.
In illegal fascist-backed coup environment, that has already overthrown the constitutional order, there is no reason for ALL of Novorussia to not pursue independence. Ignoring the rights of these people in the name of “Russia’s Interests” (which consists of thinking small and narrowly) is just another insult on top of the fascist coup itself.
Legitimate President of Ukraine Yanukovych’s request to Russia to pretect Ukrianian citizens from illegal Junta forces and marauding fascists seems to apply just as much to all of Ukrainian territory as it does to Crimea.
I see no reason why Russia should not move to protect citizens of Novorussia and allow them ALL to conduct independence referendums under universal right of self determination, with any Ukrainian state mechanisms of sovereignty which might over-rule that, such as constitutional court, already destroyed by act of illegal coup regime. Judgements of illegal fascist coups do not substitute for LEGITIMATE sovereign Ukrainian government actions in absense of the latter, nor do judgements of NATO.
If you look at current sanctions vs. Russia, I find it hard to believe how they would be significantly worse if Russia had done exactly that from the beginning, i.e. parallel with Crimea.
http://thebutterflyrebellion.org/2014/09/23/the-sabotage-of-scotlands-democracy/
[from Blue] Is there peace in Afghanistan? Iraq? Libya? Palestine? Syria? Yemen? Somalia?
Where has the US brought, or allowed, peace?
Is not the US still, in and running much of, Ukraine?
__Blue
Russia will not allow Crimea to be part of a unified Ukraine. The port at Sevastopol is of essential national interest. It should never have been gifted in the first place. I am not sure it would even be integrated into a pro-Russian Novorossia should such an entity extend that far west, though the favorable land access would be welcome to Russia.
Putin is reported to have started acting against the fifth column. This would be based on the US ‘with us or against us’ approach. The high level individuals will be offered the choice – stay with us, or leave. Those staying will bring their assets back to Russia and accept the restrictions of the current sanctions. This would make their assets immune to confiscation by the West and unify the pro-Russian power base.
A new political party has been established – the Ukrainian Galician Party. This is intended to represent the economic and political interests of the 3 oblasts, Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk and Ternopil, consider to form Galicia. This may be seen as a prototype separatist movement. The leading lights are local intellectuals. It is not clear whether this is an attempt to make it acceptable to the EU by masking potential neo-Nazism that seems particularly strong in this region.
I suspect the US is either hoping for, or actively managing, a coup against Poroshenko as some kind of peace appears to be possible. The coup would be probably Pravi Sektor / Kolomoisky. This would be aimed at providing a long-term destabilsation of relations with Russia, cementing the wedge between Europe and Russia. The Pravi Sektor would be more than happy to provide long-term low level terrorist actions against Russian interests. If this is the case, we would expect the West to continue to ignore the reality of the presence of Nazis and to ignore the evidence for the mass graves being discovered in territory they once held in Donbass.
The MH17 evidence will be withheld until it is necessary to reveal it. It would be used against whichever group stands in the way of US long term goals. The Lockerbie parallel went on for about 11 years, from memory.
I have come across a video showing a comprehensive set of photographs of the site in the early state, similar to to those of Jeroen Akkermanns. The main difference is that these include shots of the victims before the were removed. Most show the gross trauma inevitable when falling from great height. One particular individual shows evidence of possible shrapnel wounds, visible only because the high speed of descent has stripped off his clothes. Should anyone be interested, the imagery is extremely graphic, comparable to that seen in the civilian victims of the attacks by the Nazis against Lugansk, Donetsk and elsewhere.
On a lighter note, I recommend the video showing a German TV program about “The information war for Ukraine”. It has English subtitles. If nothing else, it shows the Germans do have a sense of humor.
Anunnaki 20:55
One possible explanation may be personal blackmail. Another may be more direct – ‘do as we say, or we destabilize your country too’. John Perkins’ ‘Confession of an economic hit man’ offers plenty of possibilities, based on personal experience of being inside.
Hoffnungstirbtzuletzt, fancy Vaclav Klaus, the fanatic anthropogenic climate destabilisation denialist making sense! That certain Czechs so hated ‘Communism’ that they could not read Dostoevsky is, of course, moral insanity. What, after all did ‘Communism’ do to Czechoslovakia that was so infamous? Took away the privileges of rich boys like the world’s worst ‘playwright’ Havel, and kept their beautiful cities ‘grey’ ie unpolluted by advertising shite and crass ‘development’. Meanwhile in the hell-holes of the US Empire from Mexico to Indonesia, real terror reigned, millions were murdered, tortured and ‘disappeared’ and mass, grinding, poverty afflicted billions, while the countries were looted by parasites in Uncle Satan’s employ and the money siphoned off to the
West. To have not been able to join in those parasite games, like compradores to the Empire did elsewhere, was the real reason behind these creatures’ hatred of ‘communism’. Still, Eastern Europe is ‘free’ now, so the looting, the neo-feudal privilege, the wealth, the luxurious display of the capitalist elite is back, as is their groveling subservience to the parasite’s best friend-the USA.
So this guy Khazin mentions Novorussia exactly once before invoking the Kolomoisky controled fiefdom of New Khazaria alongside.
Khan you figure out whose interests he represents? Let me give you a hint with this quote:
Anyone who doubts it should read Bulgakov. The mentality of the people in the Ukraine has not significantly changed since then. It is difficult to even conceive how a normal man can live in these conditions.
This is the voice of a genocidal supremacist Jew. Like every other revolution in modern history, the Bull-sheviks will be stepping in to steal the revolution after which they’ll teach those despicable, low-life, Nationalist Goys a lesson they’ll never forget. The Holomodor was not enough for Mr. Khazin. He thinks Israel #2 on the north shore of the Black Sea will make the world a better place.
Khazin is a rabid genocidalist who intends to distract you fromm the crimes of Jewish oligarchs by blaming stupid, ignorant, worthless, degraded, swine eating Slavs.
I have yet to read the comments but I sincerely hope that I’m not the first one to pick this up. If I am, NONE of you have learned a single goddam thing about the problem of Jewish Spupremacism.
Poroshenko’s visit and speech at best was comical and what he got from Uncle Sam was nothing short of chicken feed of just $50 million. Even tiny Burundi gets more than double that amount as aid. Still that insult is a lesson well learnt that neither the likes EF U Nuland and Obama can never be trusted. Better then to have good neighbours!
—
Obama knows the kleptocrats will just pocket the cash
One possible explanation may be personal blackmail. Another may be more direct – ‘do as we say, or we destabilize your country too’. John Perkins’ ‘Confession of an economic hit man’ offers plenty of possibilities, based on personal experience of being inside.
—–
I interviewed Perkins on his excellent book
1. Start with flattery and bribery
2. When that doesn’t work resort to blackmail
3. Death and destruction and assassination if 2 doesn’t work
http://slavyangrad.org/2014/09/26/the-battles-for-the-donetsk-airport-september-25-26-2014/
Is this the end of the “ceasefire”
Good news bad news?
1. Junta breaking through to airport (bad)
2. Guerrilla attack near Odessa (good)
UPDATE #3: There are reports of a guerrilla attack near Odessa.
Militiamen have attacked a checkpoint of the Ukrainian punitive forces near Odessa. An explosion took place at a checkpoint in the area of the village of Kotovka, in the Belyayevsk district of the Odessa region. According to eyewitnesses, at approximately four o’clock, Russian guerrillas reached their positions and fired on the checkpoint using grenade launchers. As a result of the attack, an APC standing was hit and losses were inflicted on the enemy’s personnel.
If this is confirmed, this would be excellent news. The attack was, in fact, confirmed. According to Odessa News – Timer, in the Odessa region, there are guerrillas with grenade launchers.
UPDATE #4: According to the information received from General Petrovskiy (otherwise known as Bad Soldier and Khmuryi), 250 paratroopers of the 25th Airborne Brigade and approximately 600 militants of the punitive corps commanded by Lyashko broke through to the airport. At this time, our troops are holding their positions. It appears that the situation with the breakthrough to the Lugansk airport in July is repeating.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-09-25/no-more-foreplay-russia-threatens-european-gas-supply-disruptions
—-
Predicted to be colder than average winter
@ Mulga Mumblebrain said @ 25 September, 2014 23:10
I too did a couble-take at that, which is why I thought it might be worth posting it here.
This might also be of interest.
http://motls.blogspot.co.at/2014/09/czech-ex-pm-necas-stop-hostility.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed:+LuboMotlsReferenceFrame+%28Lubos+Motl%27s+reference+frame%29
Novorussia’s natural allies are the people of Ukraine, not the elites, the oligarchs, or the Nazis of course. Novorussians want the same things that the ordinary people of Ukraine want. This is what to emphasize in information warfare. Donbass should state that it will not go to separation, but only to federalization if all its conditions are met: nationalize the oligarchs; de-nazify; repudiate the IMF loan as a pernicious loan made by a coup and not legally binding upon the Ukrainian people; end to censoring Russian media and broadcasting. When Ukrainians see that you want the same things it should lower the number of those who want to fight.