by Zamir Awan for the Saker Blog
Sino-US tension is growing to a dangerous level, what will be the consequences? Who will suffer more? And who will be benefitted? Is there any simple solution? Is anyone willing to rectify things? What will be the role of the UN and International Community, in case of an armed conflict? What will be the future of the World? Etc. Many similar questions are rising in our minds. Hope the serious thinkers and intellectuals may come out with do-able recommendations to avert any big disaster to humanity.
The US was the leader of Western Style Democracy and opposing Communism since the end of World War II. That is why, the US was siding with the ruling party – Guo Ming Dang (Nationalist Party) of China before 1949. But the Communist Party of China (CPC) won the war and gained power in China. The US was opposing the newly established CPC government in China and did every possible thing to harm CPC and end communist rule in China. Either it was sanctions, economic blockade, isolation, media war, or any other form of coercion. But could not succeed.
A U-turn was witnessed in the US policy, from hostile to friendship, since 1971. “Ping-Pong Diplomacy” sign of warming relations between Washington and Beijing, China’s ping-pong team invites members of the U.S. team to China on April 6, 1971. Journalists accompanying the U.S. players are among the first Americans allowed to enter China since 1949. In July of 1971, Secretary of State Henry Kissinger makes a secret trip to China. Shortly thereafter, the United Nations recognizes the People’s Republic of China, endowing it with the permanent Security Council seat that had been held by the Chiang Kai-shek’s (Nationalist Party) Republic of China on Taiwan since 1945.
Followed by President Richard Nixon’s eight-days long visit to China in February 1972, during which he met Chairman Mao Zedong and signs the Shanghai Communiqué with Premier Zhou Enlai.
In 1979, a big development was seen, when U.S. President Jimmy Carter grants China full diplomatic recognition while acknowledging mainland China’s One China principle. Chinese Vice Premier Deng Xiaoping, who leads China through major economic reforms, visits the United States shortly thereafter.
However, President Regan’s era was not so friendly for Sino-US relations as his pro-Taiwan policies. Later President Reagan visited China in April 1984 and as an outcome of his visit, the U.S. government permitted Beijing to make purchases of U.S. Defense equipment.
The unfortunate incident of Tian-an-Men Square happened in 1989, created more complications. Chinese crackdown on dissents was also a negative impact on Sino-US relations. The Pro-Independence President Lee Lee Teng-hui in Taiwan also affected the relations adversely. Mistakenly bombing of the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade in 1999, also set-back in bilateral relation.
Since 2000, the trade was dominating Sin-US relations. President Bill Clinton signed a trade agreement with China, which boosted the trade between two nations from US Dollars 5 Billion to US Dollars 231 Billion. China officially joined WTO in 2001, open avenues of more trade, investment, and cooperation on the economic front. It facilitated the rapid development of China and China surpassed the German Economy in 2006, while the trouble started in 2010, when China became a second-largest economy after surpassing the Japanese economy. It has alerted US policymakers and there was a strong fear that China might surpass the American Economy in 2027.
The sharp rise of the Trade deficit in Chinese favor worried the policymakers in the US. President Barak Obama took few measures to address the trade imbalance but was more polite and soft. However, since President Donald Trump, became President in 2016, a visible change was seen in the US toward Sino-US relations. President Trump initiated Trade war and imposed heavy tariffs on Chinese products, banned Huawei Chinese telecommunication giant, etc. The outbreak of COVID-19 has a catalyst in creating tension to its current height. Where the US is the worst-hit country, with the highest number of infections and the highest death toll in the world.
I was educated in China, and have served in China as Diplomat, I have lived in China for 13 years, but having interaction with China for almost 4 decades. I know the Chinese language, culture, politics, and enjoys deep penetration into Chinese society. Based on my personal assessment, China was never competing in the US or challenging the hegemony of the US as a superpower. Common people in China used to praise America and almost every Chinese especially the youth have a dream to travel to America. The common man loves America and dream to visit or live in America. The number of Chinese traveling to America are out-numbered and kept on increasing gradually. Similarly, a huge number of Americans are living or traveling into China for business, jobs, or study purposes. China was the most favorite destination for Americans for traveling, hunting jobs, business, etc. In a matter of fact, the law and order situation in China was excellent, the job market was huge, business opportunities were unlimited, which were the major reasons to attract Americans. This was vice-versa, Chinese people love to study in America, Tourism in America, Business in America, even migrate or settle down in America. There were no symptoms of anti-America sentiments in China.
China is a very old civilization and has been passing through several ups and downs in history. But in the last two centuries, China has been the victim of the Western world and its aggressive policies and colonization. The Suffering of Chinese during the last two centuries has taught bitter lessons and China has become a mature nation. The Centries old wisdom and bitter lesson of two centuries made China, humble, submissive, hard-working, and united. Even more wise!
China tried its best to avoid confrontation with the US, either it was an economic war, or sanctions, or direct threat, but China acted with maximum constraint and patience. Most of the time, China ignored the American rough attitude and overlooked American behavior. Americans used impolite and non-diplomatic language, but China did not lose temper and never issued any statement below standard. Chinese lenient attitude should not be considered its weakness but should be appreciated as its maturity, responsibility, and greatness.
In fact, It was aligned with the Chinese philosophy of peace, stability, and development. China wanted to improve its economy, eradicate poverty, improve its health care system, improve its technology, modernize its Industry, and defense. China invested heavily in its education sector, the S&T sector, and wanted to focus on Innovation and Hi-tech, which any other country can desire too. China has set its own goals, like zero poverty, etc, and was religiously moving ahead to achieve its goals. There were no visible political objectives in Chinese society, and there was no intention to counter America or replace America. China was not ready for any conflict with America or with any other country. Contrarily, China was ignoring its genuine disputes with others and was focusing only on its own development. In 2017, there was a serious stand-off with India at Doklam, but China compromised and resolved amicably. China has disputes withy many other countries, but was never willing to flare-up or use force to resolve its disputes. Taiwan is a good example, where China can invade conveniently and no one can resist China, but the Chinese opted for peaceful reunification and working hard in this direction – one country two systems. China has the capability to crush the demonstrations in Hong Kong by force, yet, China observes a lot of constraints, patience, and giving unlimited space to the demonstrators to settle down.
It is visible that the US is opting for an aggressive, threatening, and coercive attitude toward China. The US is re-aligning its allies to punish China. Definitely, China will try its best to avert any misadventure, however, if a war is imposed, China deserves the right to self-defense and retaliate reciprocate. This might lead the world to a much bigger disaster. Who ill suffer? It is humankind, irrespective of American or Chinese, irrespective of Christians, Muslims, Jews, atheists, or any other religion, irrespective of race, color, or ethnicity, it is human lives at stake. Can we think at this level, respect human lives, human lives are the most precious thing in this unive5rsrse, all lives matter.
I am sure, many of my readers might differ from my views, but hopefully, it will open debate for policymakers and decision-makers. The scholars, intellectuals, think tanks, and individuals with human consciousness may come up with some kind of recommendations or solutions to avert any big disaster. Please do educate me!
.Author: Prof. Engr. Zamir Ahmed Awan, Sinologist (ex-Diplomat), Editor, Analyst, Non-Resident Fellow of CCG (Center for China and Globalization), National University of Sciences and Technology (NUST), Islamabad, Pakistan.
Of course there is. A war with Iran will diffuse tensions with China just as this new Cold War with China did that with Russia. Who knows, if we get bludgeoned enough by a conflict with Iran, or someone else, we just might lose our appetite to keep lying about the plight of the Uighurs and our new found desire to give Vietnam and S.E. Asian countries new islands at China’s expense.
”The unfortunate incident of Tian-an-Men Square”
Not just an ’unfortunate incident’. It was a crucial, absolute failure. The Tienanmen nonsense, organized just like any other colour revolution stunt, was the last step before a total victory for Western fascist reaction. This certainly has not been forgotten, let alone forgiven, in the minds of Western Oligarchy. Add the recently quelled provocations in HongKong, and the anti-Chinese psychosis is a given.
”Mistakenly bombing of the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade in 1999”
Mistakenly, sure. Possibly correct in case of American pilot/s: ”Sorry — thought it was the Serbian embassy. This is the Serbian capital, right?”.
Wanted to post exactly the same
Excellent personal testimony and analysis of China. Everything rings true.
However, the Hegemon is in deep fear and, as the globe bully, knows only confrontation, threats, and destruction as a means to its end.
There will be a military test of wills, because the US Navy fears it will lose its dominance in the Asian-Pacific. There will be a strong effort to embarrass China among its neighbors of the ASEAN group and the East Asia countries.
This is pure global powers facing off because it may be the last time the US can bloody China’s nose locally.
The buildup of the Chinese Navy (PLAN) and the development of anti-ship missiles (DF-21Ds) and hypersonic weapons (glide and ballistic) by China leaves the US in an ever-worsening defensive position day-after-day.
With the demonization campaign of the last six months the US has prepared the West and its own populace for a serious confrontation and punishment of China.
The US must, in order to continue as #1, suppress China economically. The weapons they have used so far to contain and handicap China’s economy have not worked. Not even the open war in the marketplace against China’s giant Huawei, ZTE, Alibaba, TikTok, WeChat and others has stopped China’s tech sector. In fact, it has stimulated a national response among its brilliant young software and hardware designers to further outpace the US tech sector.
So, while the possibility exists in the war planners’ minds in the Pentagon that a limited conflict can be launched (most likely a false flag to begin it), the US will try to turn the South China Sea into a US lake, or destroy the islands the Chinese have built there.
you make 2 points that are red lines for the respective opponents.
for the usa to embarrass china in front of its next door neighbors will precipitate something far more consequential to chinese culture than losing troops, ships or planes………if china loses FACE and for those in charge of that nation and its civilization this is simply unacceptable at its core.
for the usa to be embarrassed would be just another day in the neighborhood and of no import. what washington can not tolerate or explain to its people would be the loss of capital ships, subs or planes and could easily precipitate the global financial rethinking of the present us dollars role in international finance and trade because at present only 2 things backstop the dollar………. the ‘perceived’ omnipotentence of petangon power to advance washingtons interests anywhere anytime and most importantly…. thus far….. the successful PR campaign in selling that omnipotence to the mostly uniformed larger world. the fact the omnipotence is a myth which both russia and china know full well does not change for everyone else.
if you can sell the world at large that corona virus is actually VERY dangerous to everyone as opposed to 3/10% of 1% of ALREADY compromised individuals how hard can it be to keep the myth of american power alive a little longer…..easy… as long as large public military losses can be avoided.
it is a dangerous no win game of chicken washington is playing considering the stakes
Do you think that the Chinese anti-ship missiles could do any serious damage to American ships that are equipped with laser guns and cutting-edge electronic jamming systems?
The Chinese missiles can hit the US ships 1000 km away. US Aegis Missile Defenses aboard the ships cannot stop them.
As for close naval confrontation assumes the Chinese navy would be conventional. It is just as likely they will use swarms of fishing vessel, freighters, and small craft. They have tens of thousands of boats which could take out ships like the USS Cole was blasted from a speed boat.
Very likely the US will face asymmetrical warfare in the SCS.
in addition the average depth of the south china sea is under 4000 feet and in most places much much less which largely removes the huge advantage the us navy submarine force has in open ocean against all opponents apart from russia.
https://www.britannica.com/place/South-China-Sea
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/a2/Relief_Map_of_South_China_Sea.png
the relatively concentrated by square miles of deep segments greatly hampers us navy submarine free and easy movement rendering the south china sea a bit of a shooting gallery for submarine hunting.
Kishān Chāli
“Admiral Brown’s bluster disguises the reality that missiles such as the DF-21 and DF-26, which are referred to as “anti-access/area denial” weapons (AA/AD), represent a new face of maritime warfare that makes the US carrier battle group obsolete.”
– Scott Ritter Op-ed on RT today.
A visit on Andrei Martyanov`s may enlighten you on naval stuff and weapons, i personally do not think the US laser guns and cutting-edge electronic jamming systems is as powerfull and all-mighty that you are led to believe in western msm. The subject is written about on this blog to, so a quick search here is also highly recommended😀
“Is there any simple solution?”
Yeah sending the likudite trump regime back to the hell that spawned it would go a long way to fix the zio-problem.
Simply put, China is not playing along with the game the U.S. – Israeli geo-strategists have planned out.
The plan is the total takedown of the Islamic world with the emphasis on the Arab world. And they are off to a good start.
China is for the advancment of all off humanity, due to their philosophy about life. The Chinese said they were’nt on board.
And now they must pay, by any means necessary.
Talmudists, Zionists, right- wing Hindu extremists ( as they are so alike Zionists in so many ways, an example would be to look at their policies of inhumanity vis-a-vis Kashmir, where there are 8 million Muslims under total lockdown and total silence. No internet, no phones, no communications whatsoever. God knows what’s happening there) are all in the plot against humanity, to usher in a dark, cold, brutal world order ruled with an iron fist.
If you don’t believe me, go read the Babylonian Talmudic teaching on the end game for humanity to be enslaved, and the Jew first Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin said so himself that now is the time for the Jews to rule, along with their ‘ Master ‘ , the earth, including its inhabitants with an. ‘ iron fist ‘.
And the scary part is that Menachem’s people, Jews fully control the western world, with the emphasis on the U.S.
They have minions of willing, and legions of unwittingly fooled lackey’s doing their bidding.
China is trying to, and will, inshaAllah ( God willing ) save humanity.
Is there any possibility of diffusing Sino-US tension? Yes. In fact, all tension will be completely diffused shortly. The U.S. economy is in a freefall downward spiral with no path to recovery. The U.S. has almost zero industrial capability. The only capability of the U.S. is to print trillions of dollars.
Within the next couple of years the U.S. will be forced to withdraw her military from all parts of the globe as sustaining those military deployments will no longer be possible. The turning point will come very shortly upon futher de-dollarization of the global economy as well as the collapse of the U.S shale hydrocarbon production.
The collapse is now unavoidable regardless of immediate political results. Once the collapse unfolds the U.S. will be in no position to threaten anyone, except maybe Grenada or Puerto Rico.
I hope de world”s greatest defender of democracy , human values & rights , rules based orders will not threaten their own countryman – de native Americans , de original people of America . I heard that dey’re not in good condition .
No American would like to see a war with China. Americans are sick and tired of war and have realized that the wars that have been fought have been for the benefit of the few, at the expense of the many from people and nations all over. China has in fact been demonizing America on one hand, yet has benefitied from America on the other hand, even more than Americans have benefited from America, and China has had veto power at the U.N. and has been silent and therefor totally complicit in the wars that America has participated in, in most cases with NATO.
China would still be totally impoverished if American governments had not betrayed Americans, which has impoverished Americans and has destroyed our country, as well as other countries.
What Chinese people are willing to accept from their government is up to Chinese people to decide. I, as an American am unwilling to accept the tyrannies perpetrated by the corporations, the American governments, and the Chinese government.
China has continuously violated agreements, including the Sino-British agreement which states that Hong Kong would remain independent until 2045. China keeps revising its policies going from two countries to two systems one country, to one system one country, and disputes over man made islands in the south and east china seas have prevented other countries like Viet Nam and Japan to persue their livlihoods in fishing, agressively chasing their fishing boats out of the regions. If any country is simply permitted to expand its borders in international waters simply by creating man made islands in international or national waters, that presents tremendous conflicts in international diplomacy, and it is a profiund legal matter that must be resolved, because the implications of it are enormous. However, as an American, I would not be willing to have my country fight a war over it.
The United States ought to drop the bogus charges against Ms. Meng, Julian Assange, Joshua Schulte, and other whistle blowers. This is not to categorize Ms. Meng as a whistle blower, but there is no legitimate reason for the charges.
No American would like to see a war with China. Americans are sick and tired of war and have realized that the wars that have been fought have been for the benefit of the few, at the expense of the many from people and nations all over.
Hmm… That statement doesn’t seem to be supported at the voting booth. Maybe I’m missing something here? Americans seem to be fine with just about anything the ruling Duopoly comes up with these days.
To wit:
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/14/trump-signed-law-slapping-sanctions-on-china-for-interference-in-hong-kong.html
President Donald Trump said Tuesday that he signed legislation to impose sanctions on China in response to its interference with Hong Kong’s autonomy.
Trump also said that he signed an executive order ending the preferential treatment that Hong Kong has long enjoyed.
“Hong Kong will now be treated the same as mainland China,” Trump said during a lengthy speech in the White House Rose Garden that quickly drifted away from that legislation to touch on a variety of campaign issues.
“No special privileges, no special economic treatment and no export of sensitive technologies. In addition to that, as you know, we are placing massive tariffs and have placed very large tariffs on China.”
The law, dubbed the Hong Kong Autonomy Act, would slap mandatory sanctions on Chinese officials and companies that helped back Beijing’s imposition of a security law that clamps down on dissent in Hong Kong. The sanctions bill passed both houses of Congress earlier this month.
Americans will only get fed up with war when the hideous reality of fire, death, and destruction comes home to mainland US. When that happens, their will to fight will be zapped instantly; maybe with the exception of their culturally sanctioned shooting sprees, this time to get their hands on bare necessities.
No Friend of the Devil…
I believe it is commonly understood that an agreement signed under duress is in fact invalid. Considering the British actions in SE Asia (and China in particular), I would submit that anything the Chinese did to rid themselves of their oppressors would be justified and Hong Kong now fully their’s again.
And, if finger pointing, let’s look at the uninterrupted string of US reneging on signed agreements, treaties and various serious breaches of International law…China still has a lot to learn from the master for that accusation to be valid.
” It is humankind, irrespective of American or Chinese, irrespective of Christians, Muslims, Jews, atheists, or any other religion, irrespective of race, color, or ethnicity, it is human lives at stake. ”
Strangely, in an article about China, you failed to explicitly mention Buddhism , Confucianism, and Taoism. Yet you made a point to mention Judaism ?? and Christianity ?
Not so strange.
The four mentioned in the article are a specific group that can be grouped under the general heading of “religion” or more specifically Abrahamic religions.
Buddhism , Confucianism, and Taoism each are better described as “worldviews” or “cosmic views” and does not fit into the narrow confines of what is understood by religion.
In short, the answer is no as the ((( US ))) requires demands total and complete economic and financial subservience of China and its systems. There is no possible compromise here.
As president of China Xi has said, Pacific Ocean is big enough for China and USA .
China has large amount of people, the life of Chinese has influence not only on China but also the world.
That is the stability of China is important.
A peace and stable China, is as a role of keeping peace in the world.
As president of China XI has said, Pacific Ocean is large enough for China and USA.
Chinese has a large amount of people, a peaceful and stable China is important for world.