[This article was written for the Unz Review]
When I got an email from a friend telling me that a pair of Su-57s was seen landing at the Russian Aerospace Forces base in Kheimim, Syria, I immediately dismissed it as a fake. The list of reasons why this could not be true would run for pages. I knew that, so I simply replied: “that’s a fake” and forgot about it. Over the next couple of days, however, this story was picked up by various websites and bloggers, but it still made no sense. Still, what kept me feeling really puzzled was that the Russian official sources did not dismiss the story, but chose to remain silent. Then another two Su-57s were reported. And then, suddenly, the Russian media was flooded with stories about how the Su-57s were sent to Syria as an act of “revenge” for the killing of Russian PMCs by the US; that the Su-57s had basically flattened eastern Ghouta while killing about “2000 Americans“. This was truly some crazy nonsense so I decided to find out what really happened and, so far, here is what I found out.
First, amazingly enough, the reports of the Su-57 in Syria are true. Some say 2 aircraft, some say 4 (out of a current total of 13). It doesn’t really matter, what matters is that the deployment of a few Su-57s in Syria is a fact and that this represents a dramatic departure from normal Russian (and Soviet) practice.
Introducing the Sukhoi 57 5th generation multi-role fighter
The Su-57 (aka “PAK-FA” aka “T-50”) is the first real 5th generation multi-role aircraft produced by Russia. All the other Russian multi-role and air superiority aircraft previously deployed in Syria (such as the Su-30SM and the Su-35S) are 4++ aircraft, not true 5th generation. One might be forgiven for thinking that 4++ is awfully close to 5, but it really is not. 4++ generation aircraft are really 4th generation aircraft upgraded with a number of systems and capabilities typically associated with a 5th generation, but they all lack several key components of a true 5th generation aircraft such as:
- a low radar cross-section (“stealth”),
- the capability to fly at supersonic speeds without using afterburners,
- the ability to carry weapons inside a special weapons bay (as opposed to outside, under its wings or body)
- an advanced “situational awareness” (network-centric) capability (sensor and external data fusion).
To make a long story short, the difference between 4th and 5th generation aircraft is really huge and requires not one, but several very complex “technological jumps” especially in the integrations of numerous complex systems.
The only country which currently has a deployed real 5th generation fighter is the USA with its F-22. In theory, the USA also has another 5th generation fighter, the F-35, but the latter is such a terrible design and has such immense problems that for our purposes we can pretty much dismiss it. As for now, the F-22 is the only “real deal”: thoroughly tested and fully deployed in substantial numbers. The Russian Su-57 is still years away from being able to make such a claim as it has not been thoroughly tested or deployed in substantial numbers. That is not to say that the Russians are not catching up really fast, they are, but as of right now, the Su-57 has only completed the first phase of testing. The normal Soviet/Russian procedure should have been at this time to send a few aircraft to the Russian Aerospace Forces (RAF) base in Lipetsk to familiarize the military crews with the aircraft and continue the testing while getting the feedback, not from test pilots but from actual air combat instructors. This second phase of testing could easily last 6 months or more and reveal a very large number of “minor” problems many of which could actually have very severe consequences in an actual combat deployment. In other words, the Su-57 is still very “raw” and probably needs a lot of tuning before it can be deployed in combat. How “raw”? Just one example: as of today, only one of the currently existing Su-57 flies with the new supercruise-capable engines, all the others use a 4th generation type engine. This is no big deal, but it goes to show that a lot of work still needs to be done on this aircraft before it becomes fully operational.
The notion that the Russians sent the Su-57 to Syria to somehow compete with the F-22s or otherwise participate in actual combat is ludicrous. While, on paper, the Su-57 is even more advanced and capable than the F-22, in reality, the Su-57 presents no credible threat to the US forces in Syria (if the Russians really wanted to freak out the Americans, they could have, for example, decided to keep a pair of MiG-31BMs on 24/7 combat air patrol over Syria). The Russian reports about these aircraft flattening Ghouta or killing thousands of Americans are nothing more than cheap and inflammatory propaganda from ignorant Russian nationalists who don’t seem to realize that flattening urban centers is not even the theoretical mission of the Su-57. In fact, as soon as these crazy reports surfaced, Russians analysts immediately dismissed them as nonsense.
Utter nonsense is hardly the monopoly of Russian nationalists, however. The folks at the National Interest reposted an article (initially posted on the blog The War is Boring) which basically dismissed the Su-57 as a failed and dead project and its deployment in Syria as a “farce” (I should tip my hat off to the commentators at the National Interest who immediately saw through the total ridiculous nature of this article and wondered if Lockheed had paid for it). On the other hand, in the western insanity spectrum, we have the UK’s Daily Express which wrote about Vladimir Putin sending his “fearsome new state-of-the-art Su-57” into the Syrian war zone. Just like with the Kuznetsov, the Ziomedia can’t decide if the Russian hardware is an antiquated, useless pile of scrap metal or a terrifying threat which ought to keep the entire world up at night. Maybe both at the same time? With paranoid narcissists, you can’t tell. Finally, the notion that Putin (personally?) sent these 4 aircraft to Syria to help him in his re-election campaign (peddled by the Russophobes at Ha’aretz) is also devoid of all truth and makes me wonder if those who write that kind of crap are even aware of Putin’s popularity numbers.
So what is really going on?
Well, frankly, that is hard to say, and Russian officials are being tight-lipped about it. Still, various well informed Russian analysts have offered some educated guesses as to what is taking place. The short version is this: the Su-57s were only sent to Syria to test their avionics in a rich combat-like electromagnetic environment. The more detailed version would be something like this:
The Su-57 features an extremely complex and fully integrated avionics suite which will include three X band active electronically scanned array (AESA) radar (one main, two side-looking), another two L band active electronically scanned array radars in the wing’s leading edge extensions, plus an integrated electro-optical system location system (working in infra-red, visible and ultra-violet frequencies). All these sensors are fused (5 radars, 2 bands, plus passive optics) and they are then combined with the data received by the Su-57’s advanced electronic warfare suite and a high-speed encrypted datalink, connecting the aircraft to other airborne, space, as well as ground-based sensors. This is not unlike what the USA is trying to achieve with the F-35, but on an even more complex level (even in theory, the F-35 is a comparatively simpler, and much less capable, aircraft). One could see how it would be interesting to test all this gear in a radiation-rich environment like the Syrian skies where the Russians have advanced systems (S-400, A-50U, etc.) and where the USA and Israel also provide a lot of very interesting signals (including US and Israeli AWACS, F-22s and F-35s, etc.). To re-create such a radiation-rich environment in Russia would be very hard and maybe even impossible. The question whether this is worth the risk?
The risks of this deployment in Syria are very real and very serious. As far as I know, there are still no bombproof shelters built (yet) and Russia recently lost a number of aircraft (some not totally, some totally) when the “good terrorists” used mortars against the Khmeimim base. So now we have FOUR Su-57s (out of how many total, maybe 12 or 13?!), each worth 50-100 million dollars under an open sky in a war zone?! What about operational security? What about base security?
There is also a political risk. It is well known that the USA has been putting an immense political pressure on India to withdraw from the joint development between Russia and India of the Fifth Generation Fighter Aircraft (FGFA) or Perspective Multi-role Fighter (PMF) program. To make things worse, India currently has too many parallel aircraft programs and there are, reportedly, disagreements between the Russians and the Indians on design features. With the apparently never-ending disaster of the F-35, the very last thing the USA needs is a successful Russian 5th generation competitor showing up anywhere on the planet (especially one which has the clear potential to far outclass both the successful F-22 and the disastrous F-35). One can easily imagine what the AngloZionist propaganda machine will do should even a minor problem happen to the Su-57 while in Syria (just read the National Interest article quoted above to see what the mindset is in the West)!
The Su-57 also has formidable competitors inside Russia: the 4++ generation aircraft mentioned above, especially the Su-35S. Here we have a similar dynamic as with the F-22: while on paper the Su-57 is clearly superior to the Su-35S, in the real world the Su-35S is a well tested and deployed system which, unlike the F-22, also happens to be much cheaper than the Su-57 (the F-22 being at least twice as expensive than the Su-57). This issue is especially relevant for the internal, Russian market. So the real question for the RAF is simple: does Russia really need the Su-57 and, if yes, in what numbers?
This is a very complex question, both technically and politically and to even attempt to answer it, a lot of very debatable assumptions have to be made about what kind of threats the RAF will face in the future and what kind of missions it will be given. The biggest problem for the Russians is that they already have an array of extremely successful combat aircraft, especially the Su-35S and the formidable Su-34. Should Russia deploy more of these or should she place huge resources into a new very complex and advanced aircraft? Most Russian analysts would probably agree that Russia needs to be able to deploy some minimal number of real 5th generation combat aircraft, but they would probably disagree on what exactly that minimal number ought to be. The current 4++ generation aircraft are very successful and more than a match for their western counterparts, with the possible exception of the F-22. But how likely is it that Russians and US Americans will really start a shooting war?
Furthermore, the real outcome from a theoretical Su-35S vs F-22 (which so many bloggers love to speculate about) would most likely depend much more on tactics and engagement scenarios than on the actual capabilities of these aircraft. Besides, should the Su-35s and F-22s even be used in anger against each other, a lot would also depend on what else is actually happening around them and where exactly this engagement would take place. Furthermore, to even look at this issue theoretically, we would need to compare not only the actual aircraft but also their weapons. I submit that the outcome of any Su-35S vs F-22 engagement would be impossible to predict (unless you are a flag-waving patriot, in which case you will, of course, be absolutely certain that “your” side will win). If I am correct, then this means that there is no compelling case to be made that Russia needs to deploy Su-57s in large numbers and that the Su-30SM+Su-35S air superiority combo is more than enough to deter the Americans.
[Sidebar: this is a recurrent problem for Russian weapons and weapon systems: being so good that there is little incentive to produce something new. The best example of that is the famous AK-47 Kalashnikov which was modernized a few times, such as the AKM-74, but which has yet to be replaced with a fundamentally new and truly different assault rifle. There are plenty of good candidates out there, but each time one has to wonder if the difference in price is worth the effort. The original Su-27 (introduced in 1985) was such an immense success that it served as a basis for a long series of immensely successful variants including the ones we now see in Syria, the Su-30SM, the Su-35S and even the amazing Su-34 (which still has no equivalent anywhere in the world). Sometimes a weapon, or weapon system, can be even “too successful” and create a problem for future modernization efforts.]
Whatever may be the case, the future of the Su-57 is far from being secured and this might also, in part, explain the decision to send a few of them to Syria: not only to test its avionics suite, but also to score a PR success by raising the visibility and, especially, the symbolical role of the aircraft. Russian officials admitted that the deployment to Syria was scheduled to coincide with the celebration of the “Defender of the Fatherland” day. This kind of move breaks with normal Soviet/Russian procedures and I have to admit that I am most uncomfortable with this development and while I would not go as far as to call it a “farce” (like the article in the National Interest did), it does look like a PR stunt to me. And I wonder: if the Russians are taking such a risk, what is it that drives such a sense of urgency? I don’t believe that anybody in Russia seriously thinks that the US will be deterred, or even be impressed by this, frankly, hasty deployment. So I suspect that this development is linked to the uncertainty of the future of the Su-57 procurement program. Hopefully, the risks will pay-off and the Su-57 will get all the avionics testing it requires and all the funding and export contracts it needs.
Addendum:
Just as I was writing these words, the Russians have announced (see here and here) that the Israeli satellite images were fakes, that the the Su-57 stayed only two days in Syria and that they have been flown back to Russia. Two days? Frankly, I don’t buy it. What this looks like to me is that what looks like a PR stunt has now backfired, including in the Russian social media, and that Russia decided to bring these aircraft back home. Now *that* sounds like a good idea to me.
The Saker
Head fake?
Or did the Russians draw in US/Israeli electronics by using the two planes as bait?
Or maybe some spy on or near the airbase trying to video or photograph or sabotage the planes.
And maybe, something they wanted to check showed up as a crucial weakness.
Thus, hurry back to Russia.
We will never hear for many years.
SU57 was sent to Syria to test on board electronics, data collection in areas of response time, effectiveness, pilot to avionics response and understanding but most likely of utter importance was catching the search/seek pinging of the opponent radar and detection technology. These would be mapped and recorded to eventually include in the SU57 self defense mechanism. Syria has the fortunate position of being surrounded by enemies, Israel, Jordan, Turkey and naturally the US, the SU57 was used as bait, hence 4 planes, and it would have been irresistible for the enemy to ignore. Russia got their information, frequencies, signal strength, band width right down to which platform, stationary or mobile.
These are things that few will hear about, either here or in Russia, and most of the lumpenproles could not understand if they did.
But that has to be a crucial aspect of these 21st century technology battles. If you can fuzz the other guy’s radar and make his radio go silent, or bend his position coordinates, there’s an advantage. The ultimate triumph would be to penetrate the other guy’s network and take control of his computers. Not a likely occurrence in the heat of an air battle, but to have that sort of capability, automated…
The relative performance of the airframes might not matter.
There has been the most grotesque propaganda war against the su 57 by the western defense media. It wont surprise me if some of the nonsense comes up in the comments here. So I’ll leave this here.
Dear fellow su 57 fans
We should all realize by now that everything that has been said about the Pak Fa’s stealth in the last 10 years , is pure f-ing nonsense. Whether its the uncovered engines (covered now) non serrated tips (almost done) or the famous nonsense about the engine face exposure (YF 23 had engine exposure yet had better stealth than the Raptor. Boeing X 32 had engine exposure too)
These little gimmicks got totally blown out of proportion by the haters that Pak Fa fans started to believe it. There is NOTHING here. This is as bad as Trump-Russia.
The facts are this. The Russian Federation put up a tender for a 5th gen STEALTH aircraft. Sukhoi delivered that stealth aircraft. To believe otherwise is to think that the Pak Fa is a conspiracy. Was it a fake tender and a fake delivery ? NO.
Even a 6 year old can see that there is SOMETHING about the Pak Fa that makes it look very much like the F-22, J-20 or F-35. And something about it doesn’t look like 4th gen aircraft. What is it ? STEALTH designed fuselage. The jet was designed on the computer, to have the right angling to be stealth just like the F-22 was. That makes the Pak Fa stealth. Stealth does NOT mean “achieving invisibility”. Stealth is NOT magic. Stealth is simply the science of making things smaller on radar than they are in real life.
If anything, the Pak Fa with its tiny all moving vertical stabs and ultra low profile design (it is lower profile, by measurement) is MORE stealthy than the F-22. There’s no way that there is more than a 5% difference in stealth between the 2 jets. So don’t let anyone convince you otherwise.
The USA was designing the F-22 when the USSR was still around. It stands to reason that, like always, Russia had spy assets overlooking the program. These spy assets are the only ones who’ve ever put a number on the F-22’s RCS. They say its about .03M2 and the Pak Fa is .05M2. Yet all that is ever said by the US is “its the size of a golf ball” The only reason that came out was for shows like the Discovery Channel to have something to work with. Its not serious. The real number is what the Russians have and they USED this number to make the Pak Fa within range of the F-22. Otherwise whats the point ? why make an inferior product ? The Americans actually have the audacity to claim that the F-22 is the golf ball and the Pak Fa is .05m2. Therefore the Pak Fa is way worse right ? NONSENSE.
One more thing. Its funny when westerners mock the plasma stealth idea that Russia was working on. The irony here of course is that in the first days of the Pak Fa debut , it was the western media who rightly surmised that plasma stealth had failed. Their evidence ? The careful shape of the Pak Fa (their words) was proof that Russia had to do stealth the hard way.
Early days the western defense media said “haha, plasma stealth failed and haha , its a Raptor clone” It was called the Raptorski for a couple years.
Yet now, the Pak Fa “looks nothing like the Raptor” “cant be stealth”
Well said Paulv,
You’ve highlighted points not commonly known. I read the links provided by Saker (especially the Aviation International News, (AIN) article). Saker pointed out that they mentioned that the Indians had too many parallel programs and that there was competing interests within Russia’s military that favored the current generation of generation 4++ jets over the yet to be finalized Su-57. These are valid points (in my opinion) that Saker brought up.
Therein lies the rub: even in Indian military circles, that’s been one of the arguments for hesitating with committing to the su-57 or the Indian FGFA. The irony is that Russian gen 4+++ aircraft, such as the progenitor of the Su-30SM, the jointly designed Indian Su-30MKI, are so capable that they undermine the “business-case” for Gen 5 fighter aircraft. Of course, those are the surface arguments meant to muddle the issue for sincere but shortsighted military men in both India and Russia (the real agenda of many in India making this argument is corruption, greed, and 5th Column influence peddling). As Saker and Vot Tak (and yourself) have correctly pointed out, while the aforementioned gen 4++ aircraft are very capable and will meet most requirements upto 2030, that does not preclude the point that you have to plan for beyond 2030. So the business case for Gen 5 FGFA/Su-57 has not diminished.
One good development that has happened this week that promotes the joint development of the Su-57 with India is that, this week, India canceled one of the ‘parallel programs’ that was sucking funds away from the su-57 project. I’m specifically referring to the following reference in the AIN article:
This time, however, the program would be for 100 or more of a lightweight fighter. Most observers expect this to end up as a contest between the Saab JAS-39E Gripen and a variant of the Lockheed Martin F-16, the latter of which has been referred to as “Block 70.”
The above mentioned $10Billion boondogle program has been canceled. Lockheed Martin and Sweden’s SAAB can pack their bags and….. well let’s keep it polite.
I’d like to point out that one has to be very careful when reading Western Defense trade press as it contains opinion shaping propaganda that usually involves quoting some anonymous Western military analyst or official make nonsense slogans like “but without really letting go of the historical umbilical connection to Moscow.”. The very wording of that carefully inserted quote is pejorative and pure spin. Much to the sour grapes of these self-centered psychopaths, India just added insult to their injury (i.e. cancelling a $10Billion dollar single engine aircraft bid) by issuing a $3Billion contract to Russia for 6 stealth frigates.
Let the sourgrapes torrent form Empire minded sycophants begin now.
Saker,
Some people think it is a stunt trying to keep Indians in the program.
Why are you saying that this backfired ?
I think it was a good PR move for the India deal. The whole world was talking about the su 57. Most realists settled with the idea that it was going there for some testing. And it wasn’t without risk but fighter jets are not airshow princesses. They are built to be used.
Of course there is limited use for these jets. But the power projection is real. It is a big statement to have a fleet of stealth jets.
I don’t know if I am right or wrong but I was thinking about Chinese opposition to the joint development program with India, thought there are no evidences about it, since China and India have fought a war and tensions are running high again along their borders. China wouldn’t want to give an upper hand to India and Russia would not want to cause strains in the Chinese-Russian ties.
But India desperately needs a fighter jet. Its TEJAS project has met the same fate as that of F35, high cost no outcome, still years await from deployment while the Pakistanis have developed their own fighter jet JF-17 in partnership with the Chinese , which has been induced in the pakistani air force. The chinese have their own 5th generation fighters. A two front war of India with Pkistan and China wont have a good outcome for India. India, with its sukhoi fleet, has an upper hand over pakistan, but same cannot be said about China. India should have stuck with the Russians to develop their own 5th gen fighters, but since India is rife with corruption and if rumors are to be believed, their elites probably earned good bucks by buying the french rafales for high cost.
Your speculations and assumptions are out of date: the Tejas program is full on and just received a boost with the Indian MoD (Ministry of Defense) announcing that were increasing the initial order for their indigenous Tejas aircraft from 83 aircraft to over 150 aircraft while simultaneously announcing the cancellation of the competing RFI for a single engine F-16 or SAAB Gripen (a $10Billion boondogle that the West will never see).
In addition, the Indians have announced that they are accelerating the development of their indigenous Kaveri engine (with Snecma of France and their M88 engine) to reduce the numbers of GE F-114 engines slated for the Tejas Mark II.
Finally Pakistani airforce officers that have viewed the Tejas test flights have admitted that the Tejas is a more capable close combat fighter than the 3rd generation Chinese designed JF-17 and that Pakistan Air Force protocol, with respect to tejas, is to not engage it in close combat and to fire at distance and leave (shoot and scoot).
The Tejas (composite airframe) is significant more sophisticated than the JF-17 (aluminum airframe) and is more expensive as well ($40Million/unit as compared to $25Million for the older generation JF-17).
The JF-17 is not considered sophisticated or advanced enough for the needs of the PLA Airforce an is targeted at lower tier “developing countries” such as Burkino Faso, Nigeria, Myanmar. Note that Sri Lanka has cancelled assessment of the JF-17 because they found it lacking.
You are right that India’s corrupt Delhi elite, as well as corrupt elements in their military, have done everything in their power to sabotage domestic programs in order to profit from importing western (and other foreign) hardware. Apparently, with the Tejas program, they seem to have failed (as attested to by the cancellation of the competing foreign single engine combat aircraft bid this week).
I suppose this news is going to cause grief and sour grapes in certain quarters, particularly in the Empire and it’s pretenders.
I think you are making too much of this testing, Saker. They likely stayed 2 days because that’s what was scheduled. They carried out the scheduled tests, including the flying in and out probably, and that was it. The short time there was also probably in order to reduce risks to the aircraft and minimize their particulars being exposed to israeloamerican intelligence gathering.
The faked israeli sat material is of interest. Many view satellite images as proofs without realizing these can be faked. This is something to keep in mind when one sees western regime’s and media trotting out the sacred sat images as proof of whatever bs propaganda line they are vomiting out at that moment. As with all material the israeloamericans disseminate, one should view it as propaganda devoid of fact. The reality is that what comes out of these regime’s and the zio-gay media is literally as full of manure as the ww2 german and japanese propaganda was (and actually, the ww2 american, as well).
These days it is very safe to assume that ANY image, audio or video can be faked.
“…zio-gay media…” Hilarious!!
Regarding:
“If I am correct, then this means that there is no compelling case to be made that Russia needs to deploy Su-57s in large numbers and that the Su-30SM+Su-35S air superiority combo is more than enough to deter the Americans.”
And similar arguments about the Su-57 being not really needed because existing aircraft are so good.
The Su-57 is to handle future developments which current existing aircraft will find themselves too out moded to cope. Progress moves on and 40 year old designs reach the point where upgrades no longer will bring them up to date.
If western aircraft we’re to stay static at the level of the f-22, then Russia could stay with the Su-35, but the west isn’t in stasis, they have their own future design in the works. So if Russia doesn’t want to find themselves left behind and vulnerable, they need to keep producing new cutting edge designs.
BTW, the Su-57, while being a whole new aircraft design, one can see the Su-27 design legacy in it. It looks like Sukhoi used the Su-27 as the basis for the Su-57 design. The Su-57 itself is an interim stage between current state and the not so far future of hyper mach capable aircraft. But then, all aircraft designs are interim stages between the going obsolete previous design and the maybe now possible future developments.
VT,
I heard Russian is developing gen 6 jets. So saker can be very well correct using “Su-30SM+Su-35S” for now, then go directly to gen 6, whatever that is.
Why now?
I think the Russians are thinking of the future. No harm done, and a propaganda victory in every way.
My hope is the Russians pushed it because the war in Syria is almost over.
How did the 57 and accompanying aircraft get to Syria…what route…straight over Turkey.?
It was a combat group…AWACS, fighters, 57 core. What route.? Why send a group.?
What route? Over the South Pole, by way of Middle Earth, of course. Russian aircraft have been using this highly secret transit corridor for 2 years now to get to Syria, but don’t tell anyone. ;-D
Yes vot tak I know usually the route is over Iran but no one confirms it was the case this time. I just thought it would be interesting if the group flew over Turkey given the strains tearing Turkey away from its former masters. But yeah it is unlikely.
They just need a Hobbit special forces op to distract the all-seeing Eye of Mordor.
Ha, Ha! Well played! Maybe one of these days we’ll learn that with miniaturized “black hole” technology (or something) these fighter jets can vanish from an air base deep inside Russia only to rematerialize over Syria mere moments later — you know, this capability could come in mighty handy when you’re being shot at. Where things are going to get crazy is when the enemy pilots realize they are shooting at holograms.
Could someone contact SouthFront and let them know their security certificate expired today and so Firefox and Google will not allow connection to Southfront website.
I checked at https://www.youtube.com/user/crimeanfront and was connected to Southfront
Has aircraft development reached the top of the bell curve so to speak….”presumably” the usa is finding that future development gains are becoming more incremental and toooo expensive taking tooooo long…tooooo complex….a jet engine is a jet engine..a basic diesel engine maybe has reached the end of its technological development but still fundamentally useful on the ground (of course yesterdays news about limitless missiles with different propulsion sysems was amazing)….this is from someone who works with machinery designed in 1813 so please be understanding!
The most obvious gains from testing the Su-57 in Syria are:
1) The opportunity to test Hegemon’s radar.
As Saker stated, it would be difficult or impossible to create a test scenario within Russia. I’m sure some valuable info was obtained.
2) The opportunity to give Hegemon something new to think about.
US military command seems to be promotion based on not screwing up, and the appearance of a new threat must have them tied in nots.(sic)
3) An opportunity for the Su-57 pilots to experience flying over hostile territory.
I wonder about the ingress/egress routes. There were US planes (Orion) in the Black Sea for the past two weeks. Did they see anything? How does the Su-57 transit Iraq? Does Iraq give permission? How about over
East Euphrates? Does the US give permission for Russia to fly over territory the US occupies illegally?
I bet there is a lot about this mission we will never know, including whether the Su-57’s were accompanied. I even wonder if this was not the Su-57’s first mission, or merely the first announced mission.
Perhaps proferring one’s chin to invite an ill-judged right hook ?
S,
Not to argue, but two events come to my mind: Tchernobyl disaster, where 3000 Soviet soldiers died dealing with it. The death of Cosmonaut Komarov.
Komarov was sent in the Soyuz, which was not ready for the prime time.
K. Bogdanos talks about this in one of his TV programs.
He starts off with the heroic sacrifice of Soviet soldiers at Tchernobyl accident. He continues with the first flight of Soyuz capsule. The flight was supposed to be a celebration of the 50th anniversary of the USSR.
Komarov knowing that this was basically a trip of no return, volunteered in order to save Gagarin (his friend and first man in space), who was slated for the flight. At 5:19 he plays Komarov’s communication before he died, he claims that Komarov was swearing at the Communist apparatus, which sent him to his death. He says that Gagarin later on threw a glass of something (water?) in Brezhniev’s face. He ends with the statement, that Gagarin died in accident year later (for those who remember this event, Gagarin was testing some airplane which suffered a failure).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_WWfwdDaMIw
Lifted from article:
“…Two days? Frankly, I don’t buy it. What this looks like to me is that what looks like a PR stunt has now backfired, including in the Russian social media, and …”
Alternative to PR stunt, this could also be advertising – look at the media attention world wide. Or it could also be a data gathering dash, nobody quite knows what the on board equipment is capable of (or what was in the weapons pods), or it could be a very clear statement to the USA, lastly it could be a Glonass Positioning Error rather reminiscent of I-Phone maps driving people into streams – maybe the pilots hooked up an old I-phone into the nav system so they could play ‘Korol’ i Shut’. OK that last one was a bit of humour.
Let’s not overlook the obvious. Putin wrapped up his annual speech with a detailed summary of missile systems. He did not mention the Su-57, but didn’t have to, having already displayed it.
Old western saying that I’m quite sure Trump is familiar with ….
“There is no such thing as bad publicity.”
Honestly, i think this was only for test in the most covered airspace in the world. Eventually, the aircraft crews needed that experience and to get used to an airbase in real combat conditions. It may have been other uses (propaganda, deterrence,etc) but its just another step in this aircraft development.
In my opinion, Su-57 is a necessary aircraft. The advanced flankers are going to serve to at least 2040-50, and Su-57 well beyond. It is the future because of its requirements and, it is the big bet of the russian military aviation industry for years to come.
I love the article and 18 comments so far.
The following struck me:
Considering the benefits and costs/risks:
Benefit 1: PR!?
Yeah maybe, but it still breaks with recent/decade functional professionalism, and as mentioned protocol(s).
Benefit 2: testing in ‘live fire’ environment?!
Yeah… I guess… I could buy this….
But, while acquiring this type of data/signal exposure could theoretically be a huge boon at this, still early stage of a very well forecast/planned development cycle, [no doubt], if you reel it back a couple of weeks to before this supposed (I’m still not actually convinced there ever was a Su-57 in Syria, to be perfectly honest) to have happened, how large would the inherent risks be:
a. very real possibility of Su-57 being targeted by all sorts of ‘plausible deniability’ agents in the …general vicinity, and conceivably damaged/destroyed, not to mention shot down and recovered by the empire’s forces (a worst case scenario)!
b. PR associated with any trouble, phenomenally huge!
So, while not ruling out a ‘GO’ decision on a ‘testing’ deployment in a live combat zone, I must say that the speculative benefits seem pretty meagre, in light of catastrophic, potentially program crippling outcomes with finite probability?!
Non?!
Even if Russia has deployed way more anti-missile capability, somehow secretly, from apparent satellite imagery which could spot the Su-57sin transit?! in such a chaotic, well-armed, proxied out operating theatre, the assets would still be exposed to advanced MANPADS, almost everywhere!
One can only mitigate this risk so far; it cannot be eliminated!
Having got an F-35 damaged, based on historical trends (very strong), I would predict a very, very obsessive effort to damage/destroy an Su-57, an all-out effort for a large score.
Regardless, we come away from the entire (what could be exclusively a media operation; let’s NOT dismiss this as a very real possibility) episode a little uneasy about the break in the Russian military’s significant trend of functional professionalism, whether it be an actual ‘deployment’ or a pure PR operation, of one sort or another.
Thank you Saker. But may I kindly remind you that the abbreviation “RAF” for about a century stands for Royal Air Force. Her Britannic Majesties air force.
I defined what RAF stands in the article. My article, my abbreviation. Her Majesty can cry me a river :-)
or she can write her own article (she can write and think, right?)
cheers,
The Saker
No the sordid old waxworks can’t do either.
A few possible reasons. I draw this simply from the soviet success of including the Su-25 at Afganistan. For one, it should be with India an joint project, witch means, it should be fully tested in adverse conditions and hot weather. Second, there are many design-flaws or things that cant be properly engineered whiteout testing it, witch hot weather and fine sands can show. Its also a composite plane with low radar cross-section due to special materials, that can possibly be not as ideal for those conditions and there is sadly just as much one can do in an artificial environment. Third, its complex radio-electronic equipment. It can simply be used just as an information hub for the other aircraft there flying in safe spaces. It also is a good test of the complex system in the environment of heavily under-resourced Russian systems as compared to the Russian skies. And also probable enemy radar system capabilities towards the machine. Id say they aren’t there to drop any bombs, as those were tested in Russia already and probably wont be using any electronic-warfare jamming simply to keep them secret ( as one could potentially find away to counter them with enough collected data ).
I think there is no doubt that the SU-57 was sent to Syria to be tested. As to what kind of tests were made, we shall probably never know.
US commentators have always made a point that the US has more combat planes than Russia, forgetting to mention that the average age of many of them is between 20 and 30 years. To Russia, on the other hand, combat planes came second in importance, with priority being given to Russian missile systems, as Russian military doctrine is based on defense, holding and protecting what you have.
If you take into account the smaller size of the Russian Defense Budget as compared to the American one, then we have to state that remarkable progress has been made. The new missiles announced by Putin during his speech confirm this. Russia will, ofcourse, continue with the development of the SU-57, as it will with the MIG-41, and will achieve great results, taking into account that the Russian Military Industrial Complex is in Government hands, and huge sums of money are not wasted as in the US. On top of that Russia does not have to worry about financing a huge number of military bases outside Russia, which don’t exist, as compared to the US which does have to finance more than 1.000 bases, this being done at the expense of US infrastructure.
I think that the Russian military doctrine based on defense is paying off, making Russia impossible to defeat in a conventional war, while at the same time saving huge amounts of money. Yes, Russia will continue to build efficient combat planes, but not at the expense of Russian missile systems.
Very good assessment regarding the SU-57 and the need for stealth.
I believe that it will become easier to detect “stealthy aircraft”, and therefore “stealth” will become a less useful attribute for tactical aircraft than other attributes of combat aircraft: speed, maneuverability, range, and weaponry. I think that the Russian defense expenditures should continue to place a higher priority on access denial and air defense capabilities than on stealth penetration capability.
It is still extremely important to acquire a mastery of the stealth technology used in deep penetration and fighter interceptor aircraft. So the SU-57 program should continue; and a squadron of these advanced fight-bomber aircraft should be maintained for that purpose.
Geographic isolation and Globalist ambition impel the United States to place great emphasis on stealth, because 30-hour duration combat missions cannot avoid detection otherwise over the vast distances that must be traversed. (The aerial refueling tankers will need to become “stealthy” as well.) But, when flying over and through a combat zone wherein the detection and targeting systems possess an effective mix of the short-range low-band radars longer-range radars, stealthy aircraft will become visible.
So, the 4++ generation combat aircraft will continue to be more than adequate to deal with threats from stealth both above the tactical battlefield and in strategic air defense.
This may seem really silly but having watched my teenage brothers work on a souped up car putting in fancy carberators etc. etc. … I can say that .the temptation to take it ( forbidden by my father) to the drag strip on Saturday night basically to show it off but also “fine tune” things was mostly too much for them.
Maybe it was psychologically a “boys will be boys” type maneuver with much overlay of this and that
justification.
And why not? The American mentality is “if You’ve got it, flaunt it.” so it probably drove the neocons crazy until Putin’s speech after which they took to their beds sick with envy. Not for long– There goes our Tax refunds for next year
hmmm, two days to fly and collect some data? That doesn’t sound unreasonable to me. Especiallly for aircraft that are in early testing phases. They may and probably did encounter other problems with the craft as well.
The quick turnaround makes a lot of sense in terms of the discussion about the ‘good terrorists’ and their mortar attacks on the base and risk to the planes. A two day turnaround is probably faster than the terrorists can react and organize an op to try to damage the planes.
Been watching the F1 cars do their preseason tests, and for those complex pieces of equipment they get four days, with one of those first four cancelled by the snow in spain. Still, its enough to get some data that the engineers can pour over after the cars are back home.
Thus, specially if the data the Su-57 engineers wanted was measurements of the EM environment over Syria with US, Turkey, Syrian, Russian, Israeli, French, German, etc forces all active, the two good test days up in the air is probably enough to keep the engineers busy for awhile.
One out-of-the-box suggestion for the question of why do this now might be that they’ve gotten a spy into a place where the data from US/NATO/Israeli AWACS-type planes can be stolen.
If you had a window of time when that was true, you might decide to quickly move the planes and fly them around for a couple of days so you could steal that data. Never know if that window is going to stay open, so it might be a take advantage while you can sort of situation.
Regarding the question of the future significance of the Su-57 and the possible continued usefulness of the Su-35 going forward…
1) How much of the Su-35 is in current production? Of course those 4++ aircraft are based on a Su-27 airframe that was developed in Soviet times, but is that airframe still in serial production, putting out new airframes with a 7000 hour life ahead of them, or are we seeing structural upgrades nursing along older airframes with considerable wear & tear? (Obviously the engines, sensors, avionics, and other systems are new, but I am unaware of the status of airframe production.)
If Sukhoi is still producing brand new Su-35s, that platform will most likely still be a viable workhorse for the coming several decades, and by that time it is entirely possible that the nature of warfare would have fundamentally changed qualitatively (perhaps the advent of nuclear propelled aircraft, such as ultra-long endurance bombers, etc., or swarms of small attack drones, or other disruptive technologies) and manned fighter-type aircraft would no longer make sense to build or use in the latter part of the 21st century…?
2) The Su-57 project could be used as a strategic market-denial gambit to undermine sales of the F-35. I understand that the F-35 and Su-57 are very different machines, but for some counties (SK, India, etc.) it would make more sense to buy fleets of the more efficient (operational effect/total operational costs) Sukhoi over the F-35. If Russia could reduce the prospective buyers of the F-35, it would undermine the ability of Lockheed to subsidize development costs and drive up the price of F-35s. This may cause that program to go belly up… it is already looking somewhat feeble.
It seems to me like Russia is hitting two birds with 1 stone:
1. Send in the two planes for testing….active and passive sensors of the planes, measuring non-russian radar backscatter from the planes, etc….The two days is very important. You do not want to keep them vulnerable for too long in a hostile environment. Two days looks like enough to lower the risk and making the risk acceptable, the ministry of defense assumed a risk that they found acceptable.
2. And of course the possible publicity…..I mean come on….Syria is the biggest bill-board for Russian military technology right now. Its a chance of a life-time to show off your new products in an active warzone.
And because the F-35 is doing so poorly, actually its becoming a commercial and marketing disaster, the Russians probably thought the risk was worth showing off and marketing their Su-57. Actually I think it was a brilliant move.
The Russia you are now seeing is not the low key ideologically laden Soviet Union….This Russia looks after its interests and is doing business on a huge scale and the industry can use all the marketing they can get.
Hit the Americans where it hurts the most (corrupt inefficient arms industry, weakened currency) and humiliate them as much as possible while their down (Russian missiles shooting down F-16, disaster F-35 campaign, etc.)……..well done Russia !!
Excellent article, Thank you!
Testing the avionics is the most plausible reason, they’ve impressed enough with rest of the FA fleet.
Multiparty war cabinet being marshalled.
https://www.sott.net/article/378916-Ben-Rhodes-launches-shadow-National-Security-Council-with-Obama-era-officials
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu:
“They really were there. Not for long, just two days. Over this time they conducted a trial program, including a combat trial.”
“I can tell you that the trial was successful; the planes returned home a week ago.”
“There were two jets which were accompanied by laboratory aircraft, and planes which monitored the work of weapon systems.”
“I hope that this year we will complete a full cycle of tests and this will be another surprise for our colleagues.”
“including combat trial” sounds to me like testing all the weapons systems in a combat situation.
IMHO, two days is more than enough, if all systems perform as specified.
But, hey, I am just speculating.
Dance of zaporozhian-cossacks:
https://youtu.be/wg9uPIaHEHw
I wonder what you would make of this Saker?
https://www.rt.com/news/420359-russian-su57-perform-stunts/
Thanks.
Mostly that this is a PR video with nothing new or even anything original
Sorry
cheers,
The Saker
I like the taunt of rt head….”elon musk my arse”. Referring to the totally archaic junkheap 1960’s tech rockets the clown is saucing the world with.
Total junkville
Compared to even Satan 1 let alone Sarmat.
Just dusted off mid 60’s plans to give to the silly little entertainer to have as props to keep everyone amused. Musk has this faded stinking little doll which he dresses up because US can’t roll out anything new, it doesn’t have the engineering potential and bandwidth…it is now decades behind and too embarrassed to try and fail. So arse wipe elon gets to put on a circus with paper tigers and white elephants. A pox on the turd.
Even if the T50 is only Windows Vista, it saves time in technology development getting to Windows7 in the future.
Russia needs a continuous aviation and avionics development program, even if they don’t deploy every iteration in large numbers .
I think that’s the basic point.
– Shyaku
Based on my personal, opinion a 48 hours stay of Su-57, had more risks than benefits. The information how fighter jets target and lock on enemy jets, can be obtained by other means, not necessary to send 2 or 4 Su-57 for 48 hours in Syria.
My personal opinion is that Russian figured out this, and called back the planes in 48 hours.
Putin said from the beginning that the Su57 would go to Syria to test its avionics in a real war environment and he announced pretty much from the beginning that they plane would stay only for two days. There doesn’t appear to be so much mystery around the entire thing. But it is of course possible that the Su57 is plagued by the same problems as the F35: too much innovation and systems that can’t handle it. It makes for research and development maybe more than for a viable plane for the current use. Without a number of impasses and all what didn’t work, it would be difficult to stretch the horizon beyond what exists.
Plot twist: The Russians have pulled off stealth plasma technology. The plane only apes the f-22 to hide the use of stealth plasma technology. The plasma stealth works so well that the aircraft is entirely invisible to radar. Such a success in stealth tech and its incorporation into the Su-57 would mean there is near zero risk to the aircraft while they test their sensors in the Syrian skies.
Under those circumstances, a test flight to Syria doesn’t seem so far fetched as the risk and reward is much more balanced. Its just a thought though,
If Russia knows the normal response by these uSA to aircraft approaching a given sector, flying the Su-57 in a similar pattern may test the stealth capabilities by monitoring expected response. Just that test s worth a lot.
Directed here on John Endeghols? Recommendation. Very impressed, concise, restrained, logical anaksis well written. I applaud Saker and with equal enthusiasm the excellent comments which were a study in intelligent constructive criticism and added so much to the subject in hand. Many thanks.
A very informative article indeed…
However, I was a little confused by the switch in The Saker’s reasoning for the reason(s) the SU-57s were in Syria. At first he details the possibility of a realistic testing environment for the new aircraft’s avionics and then towards the end states that this deployment was a possible PR stunt.
Why couldn’t it be both?
Even from this article, The Saker’s source information is confusing at best, even if most of it may be accurate. So let us then consider Russian culture as a foundation for understanding this newsworthy item.
Russians, despite their own proclivity for public relation endeavors, are for the most part a rather reserved people (However, I have known some very gregarious Russians.). This is especially true regarding Russian military developments. If you look at the majority of reporting that is available on such developments, it is relatively straight-forward with little fanfare. Some of it is obviously there to boost Russian esteem as well as to get the West to take notice that they are quickly falling behind in similar developments.
A lot of military reporting in the West, especially in the States is somewhat more gregarious, promoting the superiority of such systems. A while back, even the “War is Boring” military blog introduced an article that described the author’s gaming of current-day US and Russian aircraft squaring off with each other. The article was presented as “fiat accompli” with the Russian aircraft losing in the scenario.
However, one thing missing from this ridiculous piece was a comparison in the level of training that both US and Russian pilots receive. In this regard, to my knowledge, Russian pilots are trained far more extensively than their American counterparts. If so, and had this been taken into account, it is doubtful that the Russians would have lost to the extent they did in this experiment.
To add some corroboration to this point, US Air Force Air Games with the Indian Air Force have consistently shown since 2005, the Indian Air Force to be far superior to their US counterparts, winning both major reported war game exercises (the latter I believe was done in 2014).
Getting back to my main point. It is quite possible that within the two days noted later in this article, Russian aviation engineers and analysts may have found what they needed to know rather quickly, such as a malfunctioning process or a piece of equipment and subsequently decided to send the aircraft back to Russia for repairs or fine tuning.
The failure of the Su-57s to meet expectations in Syria’s airspace may have induced Russian media then (along with some in the political infrastructure) to take advantage of the SU-57s’ appearance in Syrian airspace as a media event.
No matter which, Russian military sources have been rather tight-lipped from the beginning, as they are normally, so it could have been also that in the short time the SU-57s were in Syria they may have even exceeded expectations for whatever testing was being performed allowing Russian engineers to quickly remove the aircraft from potential danger.
If, as The Saker has noted, current, modern, deployed Russian aircraft are proving more than a match for US aircraft, than I would suggest a Russian squadron of 50 SU-57’s for two reasons…
1…
This is large enough group of such aircraft to act as deterrent if and when needed by the Russian air Force
2…
Even more importantly, such a sized squadron would provide enough of a diverse test-bed to use such aircraft for the testing of refinements on existing avionics and air frame engineering that would allow for the development of less expensive aircraft but with exceedingly superior capabilities…
Meanwhile this is what Murdochs muckery is telling it’s readers in Tasmania, and elsewhere in Australia
https://www.themercury.com.au/news/world/russias-stealthkiller-fighter-project-has-been-abandoned/news-story/03e50ea76d6a5dfb5aaac69b9c75fbd6