The wider scene
“Maritime reconnaissance near Russian territorial waters has intensified by 50 percent.”
Libya
Last week, an unconfirmed report was circulated on social media, announcing a Russian navy missile firing exercise off the Libyan coast, between Benghazi and Tobruk, (08-11 Jan). If indeed there was really a NOTAM released on this, then it suggested activity by the “Admiral Kuznetsov” group, (whose last confirmed AIS location was SW of Crete). *
Coincidentally, the following day, Libyan & Russian media reported on the visit of a Libyan military delegation headed by Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar, the commander of the Libyan National Army (LNA). It took place onboard the “Admiral Kuznetsov” in Libyan waters, and also involved a videoconference with the Russian defence minister, Sergei Shoigu.
Video starts in 3 sec.
Post-Gaddafi Libya rapidly fragmented into different quarrelling factions. Russia has mainly taken an interest in the LNA & the Tobruk-based House of Representatives (HoR) for some time now. This visit has come after both Aguila Saleh – the HoR president and Marshal Haftar has asked for Moscow’s assistance a number of times, (as well as also travelling to Moscow).
Libyan media also reported that Russia’s Chief of General Staff Gerasimov was in Tobruk for a meeting with Gen Haftar on the same day. However, there is absolutely no confirmation of this whatsoever.
Unsurprisingly, Haftar is labeled in the Western media as a “strongman”, as the LNA is not seen by the West in a good light since it is in opposition to the U.N.-backed ‘Unity’ government in Tripoli. Only the Tripoli-based government can import arms, however the LNA has also been battling Islamic terrorists for 2 years. This is due to the fact that Libya is subject to an U.N. arms embargo since 2011.
Libyan head of LNC Gen #Haftar visited Russian aircraft carrier Adm Kuznetsov off the coast of Libya yesterday. (Rus in Summer whites!) pic.twitter.com/ZNjL39OpSz
— LeDahu ن (@LepontDahu) January 12, 2017
Since this is the highest Russian military visit to eastern Libya so far, this direct in-country high-level visit is an unprecedented show of support.
Given the on-going NATO-instigated instability in Libya, still with potential to escalate, this might signal a desire by Moscow for a more participatory role in Libya. This will certainly raise eyebrows in NATO and in Washington too. But at the moment Washington is in a political limbo, (should that be shambles?), due to the Presidential transition and anyway most of it is far too busy with blaming Russia for it electoral & other woes.
On a side note, Tobruk was one of the most prized deep water port for the Allies in World War 2, resulting in the famous siege of Tobruk. It is quite probable that it might have a role in future cooperation with Russia. Intriguingly, rumours state that Haftar offered to refuel the Russian carrier, a possibility since it is a significant oil transhipment terminal.
Interestingly, the Russian auxiliary ships that usually activate their AIS, have them switched off. Likewise, NATO surveillance is somewhat muted. When the carrier group sailed down to Syria, US Navy P-8 air patrols monitored their progress. There is no open source indication that this is taking place this time round. On the other hand, there was plenty of air patrols scrambled for the Chinese carrier in recent days.
Russian Navy Bases
Fitting in with the stated Russian MOD concerns over NATO activity on Russia’s borders, the Russian military is continuing to actively consolidate its border air & sea defences, including many locations that had been simply abandoned in the 90s.
Additionally, The Russian Navy plans to install «Podsolnukh» Over-the-Horizon Radar systems in the Black Sea and the Baltic Sea regions in 2017.
The Kurils
It is reported that the Russian military are looking at establishing a naval base in the area, quite possibly disquieting Japan. It’s not surprising really, considering Japan, along with South Korea are providing elements of the THAAD US missile defence shield, as stated in a Kremlin defence meeting
Since this is already a serious concern to Russia, on the Western border, inevitably its military presence in the Western Pacific is increasing too.
An visual overview of the new NATO “missile concerns”
New interactive from @Missile_Defense maps the Russia-NATO missile stand-off. https://t.co/7FOAttxRxl pic.twitter.com/PoKd3fANOV
— CSIS (@CSIS) January 13, 2017
The Northern Route
The Northern Fleet has just formally inaugurated two more Arctic stations on Kotelny Island (New Siberian Archipelago) and on Alexandra Land (Franz-Josef Land). This is part of the on-going wide expansion of land, sea & air military control in the Arctic region.
For the first time in the history of Arctic navigation, a westward ship convoy transited the Northern Route in late December, early January, led by the icebreaker “50 Let Pobedy“. (50 Years of Victory)
Naval & civil infrastructure & facilities are being put into place along this strategic shipping route. With this first historical voyage, the Northern Route could very well compete in the future with the traditional shipping routes, which are much longer, such as from Europe through the Suez to China and the Cape of Good Hope route.
I will write more extensively on this topic in a future brief.
The Northern Fleet
Last week, a Russian Navy Northern Fleet spokesman Serga said: “The crews of a number of surface ship groups have started preparations for long-haul expeditions to the seas of the Arctic Ocean, to various areas of of the Atlantic and to the Mediterranean basin,” .
Nothing new or spectacular in the Russian Navy’s statement, since it is routine to rotate units and deploy where necessary. Such a case is the “Admiral Kuznetsov”, now returning home. Two new Arctic bases are up and running. Finally, the Neustrashimy-class frigate, the “Yaroslavl Mudry” spent some time on deployment in the Atlantic, so it seems the Baltic Fleet is handing over the Atlantic ‘cruise’ slot to a Northern Fleet ship.
Russian Navy new builds
The commissioning trials for the Grigorovich class frigate “Admiral Makarov“ were temporarily paused for the orthodox New Year and Christmas holidays. It’s entry into service into the Baltic Sea Fleet is now overdue by a couple of months, but when it happens, will make a definite difference in modernising the fleet and boosting the Baltic Sea & air defences.
The Chinese NAVY
As previously reported, the “Liaoning” aircraft carrier has undertaken exercises in the South China Sea. In a situation very similar to how NATO behaves towards Russian military units, predictably, Taiwan & Japan dispatched aircraft & ships to keep a watch on the carrier’s route through the Taiwanese straits. RT’s report encapsulates the situation succinctly:
“Beijing’s naval exercises have unnerved its neighbors in the region – including Taiwan, which China claims as its own – amid long-running territorial wrangles in the South China Sea. ”
Receiving very little attention is the fact that the Chinese Navy is a longstanding active participant
in anti-piracy patrols & escort in the Horn of Africa region. In fact the 25th anti-piracy task group (frigates “Hengyang“ and “Yulin“, and oiler “Honghu“) took over last week from the 24th task group (destroyer “Harbin“, frigate “Handan“, and oiler “Dongpinghu“). The 24th group are now on their way home, but with probably a number of goodwill port visits enroute. It goes without saying that this is the cornerstone of a navy, to assist and protect merchant shipping and China is certainly playing a vital role with safeguarding this extremely strategic international maritime route.
As mentioned in a previous brief, (Number 4), NATO had been also participating in the region, (Op Ocean Shield), until the 2nd week of December, yet the EU is still has a presence and providing an anti-piracy mission. ( I wonder at how much blurring of roles and missions take place between wearing a NATO hat and wearing an EU one).
Lastly- back to the Syrian campaign
Previously, I reported on the departure of the aircraft carrier group, now I will mention the new arrivals to the eastern Mediterranean. The latest Russian Navy ship heading southward is the “Kovrovets”, 913, Natya class minesweeper, this is the 2nd deployment, having returned from 100day mission back in May. (Project 266M )
“Exit the Admiral Kuznetsov group, enter Su-25 aircraft”. (Hmm … Probably late in the season for bird migration). The arrival of 12 Su-25 at Khmeimim airbase in Syria on the 10th Jan, indicates a new phase in the Russian air support for Syrian ground troops. Given that they have upgraded navigational systems, these may be the Su-25SM3 version, back again in Syria, with Vitebsk pods and low visibility flying capabilities. If this is confirmed, then Syria is still well and truly a proving ground for new Russian military equipment & kit.
A group of Su-24 returned home, as part of a rotation of aircraft. I’d be interested in seeing what merits the use of a Su-25, over that of a Su-27.
The last word: despite the departure of the carrier group, Russia ‘can reinforce its task force in the Mediterranean at any time’. I would call this ” a parting shot”.
In other news
Some of the West’s MSM have picked up on the news of the Russian Navy introducing a new officer position of “deputy commander” for ships with more than 100 crew members. However, they are making it out that the role is a copy of a Soviet-time political officer, but actually it is more like staff captain role onboard cruise ships, aka people’ & welfare management
In short, the usual total nonsense from MSM numbskulls with an axe to grind. (In Russian)
NB
Before the announcement of the news of Haftar’s visit I had originally written the following re the NOTAM:
“But why? Maybe because there is a context linked to a certain wish on the part of some Libyans for Russia to help them out with their fight against terrorists in the same way as it is in Syria. “
Your assessments I believe are right on the nose, you would be a fool not to see the Russians taking advantage of Libya. There were strong friends prior to collapse of Soviet Union.
Strategically it makes sense.
This group in Lybia are the smart ones for getting the Russians to be seen as friends, solidifies there position against the Goverment.
Very valuable, hard-to-find data, thank you
LD
Thanks for the update.
“A group of Su-24 returned home, as part of a rotation of aircraft. I’d be interested in seeing what merits the use of a Su-25, over that of a Su-27.”
Did you mean Su-24 instead of Su-27?
I meant to say Su-24 have also been rotated. The Su-27 has apparently left too, but no info on exact numbers. There were plenty to be seen in the Haftar video, along with 4 Mig 29s . Now the question is why are the Su 27 no longer required in Syria, but the su-25 are.
The Russian su-24s are also going home, but that leaves the Syrian Su 24 operating. Sorry if I wasn’t clear about this.
LD
Thanks for the clarification.
“Now the question is why are the Su 27 no longer required in Syria, but the su-25 are.”
I guess that because the Su-27 is primarily for air to air combat and the Su-25 is used for ground attack. Due to the thaw with turkey and the neutering of america/nato in Syria, the Russians probably don’t see a need for as many fighters to defend their ground support air ops now?
North Korea Calls for ‘Fresh Way of Thinking’ Under Trump Administration
https://sputniknews.com/asia/201701141049602659-north-korea-fresh-thinking/
In short, the North Koreans offer an olive branch to an equal. Is trump man enough to accept it, or do the zionazis and nazis who own obama’s bum own trump’s as well?
Will Russia now chase ISIS out of Libya? Oh, this should be fun to watch! NATO will not be amused.
Columbus and other European explorers wanted to bypass the dangerous Middle East and use a short sea route to China. The new route is in the Arctic. Perhaps the Russians will allow the Chinese to use the Northern Route to send goods to Europe.
There was no Suez Canal in the 15th century and the Middle East was far more civilized than Europe at that time.
Columbus wanted to bypass the Cape of Hope (South of Africa)
The many Geo-political implications of Russia’s engagement in Syria start to become partially visible. The rapprochement with Egypt and Libya, via Haftar’s Libyan National Army, have been in the works for quite some time. Other surprises are on the way.
OT
Great summary of 2016 and outlook for 2017 by Andrew Korybko. Quote:
“The New Cold War has set off a worldwide rearrangement of partnerships unseen in scope and scale any time before in history. To list off the most prominent which are concurrently occurring, these are:
* The closest-ever comprehensive partnership between Russia and China;
* The Tripartite between Russia, Iran, and Turkey;
* The US-Indian military-strategic partnership;
* Ukraine being forcibly ‘poached’ by the US from Russia (and starting the New Cold War);
* Russia’s rapprochement with Japan;
* Russia’s rapprochement with Pakistan;
* Egypt moving towards Russia and away from the US and Gulf Kingdoms;
* Mercosur coming under unipolar control while the Pacific Alliance becomes more multipolar;
* China having the potential to connect both South American trade blocs through TORR;
* China and Mexico making inroads in their bilateral relations to prepare for Trump;
* India turning against Nepal and pushing it towards China for the first time ever;
* The US’ Pivot to Asia falling flat due to Chinese gains in Thailand, the Philippines, and Malaysia;
* and Suu Kyi pragmatically turning towards China.
http://katehon.com/article/2017-forecast-global-trends
Big surge in cyberattacks on Russia amid US hacking hysteria – Russian security chief
https://www.rt.com/news/373764-surge-hacking-attacks-russia/
“Obama’s administration accuses Russia of hacking attacks without giving any proof, but deliberately ignores the fact that all major internet servers are located on US territory and are used by Washington for intelligence and other purposes aimed at retaining [US] dominance in the world,” the head of Russia’s Security Council, Nikolay Patrushev, said in an interview with Rossiiskaya Gazeta daily.
He also stressed that Moscow has seen “a growing number of attempts to inflict damage to Russian information systems from abroad.” These attempts include “hacking attacks and unsanctioned collection of personal data” and involve the use of global internet operators and providers, with the methods of these cyberattacks constantly “evolving.”
A very accurate rule of thumb: whatever the zionazis accuse others of is exactly the sort of illicit behaviour they themselves are engaging in.
As with individuals in late-stage psychopathy, who can only be 100% self-referential, so it is with states in late stage mass psychopathy.
Western military people protesting against their countrys’ wars, I have not seen much mentioned of this.
Rebellion in the sky over Syria
http://theduran.com/rebellion-sky-syria/
“It should be recalled that the US-led coalition has repeatedly been criticized by both the international community and NATO for its ‘mistakes’ during air strikes in Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan. Some servicemen from Western countries have even staged protests and organized demonstrations to protest their respective countries’ military interventions.
A recent case in point is a Danish military serviceman serving in the NATO contingent deployed in Afghanistan. He organized a protest near the Danish Parliament on January 10, voicing concern over the real terrorism he witnessed while on duty. He held a cardboard sign in his hand reading, “They ordered us to Afghanistan to fight against terrorism. We were tricked! It was only for the sake of the war. NATO is terrorism! Please forgive us for what happened, Afghans!”
See:
https://i2.wp.com/theduran.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/slavjan13-17z.jpg?resize=300%2C225
“Earlier, a number of photographs appeared in social networks showing American soldiers with protest posters expressing their displeasure with the military campaign against Bashar al-Assad . Their faces are disguised in order to protect them from persecution. They argue that supporting the anti-government forces in Syria is a betrayal of the Syrian people, as by doing so the U.S. provide direct support to Al-Qaeda in Syria.”
See:
https://i1.wp.com/theduran.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/slavjan13-17w1.jpg?resize=300%2C236
(Sign says “I didn’t join the navy to fight for al Qaeda in a Syrian civil war”.)
Damning stuff. I had not been aware of these protests. The american ones are an indication all is not so cozy for the neocon brass there. Sort of like the beginnings of the military rebellion during the Vietnam war crime, which began small, but which blossomed into a low key disorganised mutiny that effectively neutered a substantial amount of the u.s. military and greatly helped to force the pindo regime to cut and run.
F-35 has 276 deficiencies and counting, unfit for combat operations – Pentagon report
https://www.rt.com/usa/373891-f35-report-flaws-delays/
“The F-35 stealth fighter jet suffers from hundreds of problems and won’t be fully combat-capable before 2020, says a scathing report from the Pentagon’s top evaluator. New issues keep cropping up, and fixing them all may cost over $1 billion.
Dr. Michael Gilmore’s damning assessment is part of the massive annual report for fiscal year 2016, and his 62-page dossier devoted to the F-35 paints a grim picture of America’s much touted,futuristic Joint Strike Fighter. The program, which began in 2001, was supposed to deliver a fifth-generation jet serving the needs of the Air Force, the Navy and the Marine Corps, achieving savings through a modular design. Instead, it is 70 percent over initial cost estimates and years behind schedule.”
I think the F-35 is exactly the sort of aircraft and military procurement program the usa needs right now. ;D
Exactly, Vot tak. My impression from reading about the F-35 is that it is a big, overpriced turd that won’t float, no matter how much more money the MIC throws at it. All of America’s warmongering NATO allies should be buying these useless things.