Today I have posted exceptionally many articles. I try to get the to you, the readers, as fast as I can, but some might have been annoyed by the intensity of this deluge. If that is your case, please accept my apologies: there is just so much going on and to cover that waiting just does not seem to make sense to me. In conclusion to this hectic day, I want to add one short but I think most important note: the ceasefire is not holding.
Sure, that is exactly as predicted, but since there is a lot of polarization about the rationale behind this ceasefire, I think that it is important to keep in mind that is is already going down the tubes. It is obvious, really: the UE/NATO gave the Ukies the maximal incentive to break the ceasefire and the Ukies are acting on it. Besides, Poroshenko does not really control the Junta Repression Forces anyway and the local Nazis are ignoring his orders. The Russian side is trying hard “not to notice” the Ukie shelling and even ground attacks, but even Zakharchenko had to admit today that the Ukies are violating the ceasefire. The Novorussian Armed Forces appear to be very really angry at the fact that Mariupol and Debaltsevo have not been taken and the fact that the Ukies are shelling only makes their rage worse.
At this point I don’t see how a full-scale resumption of combat activities could be avoided. I guess that we will find out soon.
Kind regards and good night,
The Saker
to Anon:
“But the real catastrophe was the signature of the Minsk protocol, a document of surrender to the Kiev junta, signed by Zakharchenko & Plotnitskii. Such a document shd _never_ have been signed; it represents Putin’s Munich, s”
nice rant but have you spent any time reading the document or any of the ‘reasonable’ analysis?
“MOSCOW, September 10. /ITAR-TASS/. Operator of gas pipelines in Poland, Gaz-System, has confirmed the suspension of reverse-flow deliveries of natural gas from Poland to Ukraine.
“We’re compelled to suspend gas deliveries to Ukraine for the time being due to a reduction of gas deliveries from the East,” a spokesman for the company told ITAR-TASS.”
What truce? We’ve just moved to a different battlefield for the moment. Why kill each other, if there is another possibility.
Do you think maybe the Poles are going to re-think the mercenaries they are sending into UE or the pilots? maybe.
“BRUSSELS, September 10. /ITAR-TASS/. EU ambassadors on Wednesday for the third time postponed a new round of sanctions against Russia.
The sanctions were approved by the Council of the European Union on September 8, a European diplomatic source told ITAR-TASS.
“
Do you think that w/o the cease-fire, as s*itty as it is, we would have this result? Politics in total disarray.
There were at least 4 countries that said ‘no’. Winning ‘hearts and minds’ is the name of the game.
“BEIJING, September 10. /ITAR-TASS/. Russia and China are discussing an issue of increasing the term of Chinese loans in national currency for Russian businesses from the current period of one year to the period of four or five years, Russian First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov said on Wednesday.
“The loans in yuans are currently permitted for the periods for up to one year only,” Shuvalov said in an interview with ITAR-TASS. “We have discussed today the possibility of increasing the term to four or five years.””
There a lot of ways to fight a war. This is one of them. Where is the $$ and the € in this equation.
We toss around the AngloZionist a lot here. But the AZ’s are not on the battlefield. They’re in the banks in the EU in the USSA in RU in UE. The ‘war’ is now in their court and not in the killing fields.
It’s not over by a long shot and winter is coming. RU armor loves the snow.
You can never post too much. Your posts are so informative with content as well as analysis. And your writing style is very easy to read in a web format.
I make time for everything you submit while scanning most other sites and picking and choosing.
Don’t know about the rest, but I read everything you put forward and all the comments.
I’d like to validate and echo Nora’s request for a ‘primer’ on the major oligarchic players on the scene. With the exception of Kolomoisky and Poroshenko (not himself any longer an oligarch per se, although he was one before taking the Presidency), I have this ‘sense’ that the battlefield resembls that of Europe of the 30 Yeaars’ War where private armies fought (under the Catholic and Protestant rubrics but as private forces).
Along those lines, if there are mercenaries operating, who are they and who are their paymasters? One does not have the sense that the NAF is using many mercenary forces, although I have seen reports of volunteers arriving there in support from the Russian Federation, Europe and even Africa (just yesterday).
Anonymous 16:47,
Any time you see “science” “suggest” anything, a) it’s not because “it” can’t; b) some person is either being misquoted or making a wildly inappropriate claim; and c) run for the hills! ;~)
And strangely Novorussia has become something of the Paris Commune of the age, national liberation writ small, but with a little peace perhaps producing an economy that is healthy pointer to what we all should be doing.
===
And what happened to the Paris Commune:
20,000 dead. Thousands of them taken captive, lined up against the wall and shot
http://en.itar-tass.com/world/748939
Of course the corporate media just ignores this logical insight.
It was obviously NOT Russia nor the NAF.
Nothing to see here, move along. This summer when the NR is destroyed and Pol Pot Shenko takes over the “liberated” east, it will be announced on page 6 that it was the Uki Air Force. but what does it matter a year later.
The ends justify the means
http://en.ria.ru/world/20140910/192802348/Unidentified-Fragments-Found-in-Bodies-of-MH17-Crew-Dutch-Safety.html
“Fragments” found in MH17 bodies
I read Vladimir Suchan piece that you posted and it is a fine rant and that’s about it. He adds nothing to the argument except accusations. But maybe that was his purpose. Keep the pot boiling. Excuse me but it is all BS. Hopefully his digestion is better for it. :)
1. Stretched military lines of supply is something UE is good at. Why does the Novorussian militia want to be in the same place? eg Mari…
2. Strelkov wanted to go to Kiew? Maybe it is a good idea he is where he is right now.
3. You mention the infighting among the brass of the Novorussian forces. Is it a good idea to go on the offensive when the leaders are fighting among themselves? Seems kind of stupid.
This cease fire may have been just what both sides needed to re-assess the situation. Both sides can re-group. Both sides can take a rest. Maybe the Nazis will decide to march on Kiew in the meantime. Anything can happen. Armchair warriors are just that armchair warriors and to get unglued because someone decided to rant is not good for one’s health.
“The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting.”
― Sun Tzu, The Art of War
As far I can see, one of the biggest problems in the Ukraine issue is – what to do about the Nazis? – the other being the oligarchs.
Maybe the article linked to by Alien Tech above, the comments of Anonymous 15:04 and the article mentioned by Larchmonter445 provide a clue?
Get the Kiev regime totally reliant on the Nazis rather than reasonable Ukrainians who aren’t keen to die attempting to kill their countrymen for the benefit of the oligarchs. The Kiev regime than faces the choice of having the Nazis descend on Kiev for regime change mk II or send them off to the front in the hope of a victory to placate them.
Maybe there will be a major focused Ukrainian attack, comprising mostly Nazis (excluding those sequestered in Mariupol) attempting to cauldron the NAF. The mobile Ukrainian troops retrained and re-equipped in Russia would then make mincemeat of the rapidly and poorly trained Nazis, giving no quarter.
“political infighting. I don’t know if this is possible right now, but I would like to see the emergence of an undisputed Novorussian leader who would have the official and full support of Strelkov, Zakharchenko, Borodai, Mozgovoi, Kononov, Khodakovski, Tsarev, Bolotov, Gubarev and all the other political and military leaders. This has to be a truly Novorussian leader, not just a “Putin proconsul”, a person capable of negotiating with Putin for the interests of the people of Novorussia. (…) Until that happens, I will always be worried for the future of the people of Novorussia”
Maybe these people are just the same as the other “Oligarchs” and is the whole situation a kind of “Infighting”.
Regarding MH17, on 29 August the Dutch government quietly released official written answers to formal questions raised about the MH17 incident.
In short, the answers played down Ukrainian involvement, blamed the separatists for allowing limited and incomplete access to the site, implying they had something to hide. It stated there was no Non Disclosure Agreement limiting release of data. However, they will not release data that is confidential and relevant to the criminal investigation. This includes data supplied (or not) from US/NATO AWACS and satellite systems, and the Ukrainian ATC voice traffic records.
It stated there was an urgent need to go back to the crash site but this was not possible because of security concerns.
It stated the filed MH17 flight plan was normal, no different to earlier plans. The decision to reroute the plane to 10 km level rather than 11 km level over the conflict area was taken to avoid another flight already on the 11 km level.
I suspect the plan is to withhold hard information for as long as possible (11 years for Lockerbie incident) in the hope that people will forget about the incident making it easy to rerun a similar frame-up over supposed NAF / Russian responsibility.
The answers also swept over questions relating to Dutch financial support for the Ukrainian TV station that published a program outlining ethnic cleansing of the east of Ukraine.
The Malaysian government is not happy at all about the investigation. They want proper answers and a complete investigation. They have sent ~70 investigators back to the site, arriving 2 September.
Saker I have just been on the Stratfor website where there is an interesting post.
“…Fighting stopped in Donetsk and Luhansk as the cease-fire formally came into effect at 6 p.m. local time on Sept. 5, as well as in the outskirts of nearby Mariupol earlier in the day.
OVER THE PREVIOUS WEEK, KIEV WAS FORCED TO DIVERT FORCES FROM LUHANSK AND DONETSK TO CITIES IN THE COASTAL REGIONS, FURTHER WEAKENING THE CAMPAIGNS AGAINST SEPARATIST MAIN DEFENDED AREAS. MARIUPOL IS A STRATEGIC PORT CITY, AND A SIGNIFICANT OUTLET FOR UKRAINE’S COAL AND STEEL EXPORTS TO REACH WORLD MARKETS. A SIEGE OF MARIUPOL NOT ONLY WOULD HAVE BEEN A TACTICAL CHALLENGE, BUT WOULD FURTHER EXACERBATE UKRAINE’S GROWING ECONOMIC WOES.
MANY UKRAINIAN SOLDIERS ARE ALSO INCREASINGLY FRUSTRATED WITH THE GOVERNMENT’S INABILITY TO PROVIDE THEM WITH ADEQUATE SUPPORT, AND RESENTFUL OF THE ALLEGED MISREPORTING OF THE NUMBER OF ASSOCIATED CASUALTIES IN EASTERN UKRAINE….
My uninformed reading of this short extract from a lengthy report is that as winter approaches Russia and the Novarussian forces want to apply pressure on the Ukrainian population so that the majority rise up against the oligarchs and unelected parliamentarians and basically reinstall the deposed Yanakovich.
Possibly there is a Sun Tzu saying along lines of:
“Why not let your enemy fight your battle for you”
“Maybe there will be a major focused Ukrainian attack, comprising mostly Nazis (excluding those sequestered in Mariupol) attempting to cauldron the NAF. The mobile Ukrainian troops retrained and re-equipped in Russia would then make mincemeat of the rapidly and poorly trained Nazis, giving no quarter.” The Azov Nazis are going to be a whole lot easier to kill en masse if they come out of Mariupol and the protection of the NAF’s unwilligness to shell civilians like they Nazis did to Donetsk and Lugansk. Once the Azov, Aidar and Dnepro Nazis are in the open field kill them with GRADs and arty. Ditto for once the ceasefire is gone Donetsk airport bunker paras can finally be flushed out with flamethrowers after Ukies defending the approaches run low on ammo and are invited to honorably surrender.
@ 10 September, 2014 19:20
http://rt.com/news/186780-war-crimes-ukraine-amnesty/
@Nora
“So here’s my question yet again: what are all these damned oligarchs/warlords doing in response to all this wreckage, and who’s helping them out behind the scenes?”
I don’t think there is a single clear answer to that question.
The oligarchs mostly came to their position during the gangster era after the collapse of the Soviet Union so they will all have similar – and probably not very nice – personalities.
However part of that similarity will be:
– hyper aggressive
– hyper strong-willed
which means they won’t play well with others, which imo means each one – even if they shared the same interests – will all run their own individual game.
Personally Poroshenko doesn’t strike me as a strong man so I assume he’s someone’s puppet, currently probably Yatsenuk and the EU/US/UK.
Of the other oligarchs Kolomoisky is the one that stands out to me as the most significant – with Akhmetov in the wings.
I think the primary concern of the oligarchs will be trying to prevent an honest government coming to any part of Ukraine or NR but if that eventually doesn’t look possible then to at least preserve as much as possible of what they stole from Ukraine since the collapse of the Soviet Union.
Politics as a part of business rather than politics for its own sake.
From the Novorussia website:
“Novorossia’s army keeps on giving decent repulse to Kiev junta and blowing a significant loss. For the time of battles in Donetsk and Lugansk army got the experience of leading battles and successfully acted with opponent that outstrips in numbers. “Troops of Novorossia in time of battle near Telmanovo occupied 9 burial hills which belonged before to national Guardia. This protected with wheel formula 4 ×4 developed by Canadian company Streit Group produced at Kraz. In times of trials held by militias of Novorossia was remarked high mobility of panthers, but their protection was thought by our specialists not reasonable and vulnerable in places where it will be fixed with additional protect leaves, between layers of which are captured body armors. Now the panthers will be got by diversion-scouting groups. Three cars have been got by the group of the militia with a sign call “Abhas”.”
These panthers should provide better mobility for recon units.
COuld the Junta forces be planning a 9/11 offensive?
Has Col. Cassad been hacked?
@Yonatan 10 September, 2014 20:06
“It [the Dutch document] stated the filed MH17 flight plan was normal, no different to earlier plans.”
So I, and hundreds of other people, must have been fantasising when we looked on Flight Aware and saw that for at least the previous fortnight, the flightpath had been much further south, near the Sea of Azov. (Click on my nic above to see my contemporaneous comments on the Guardian website.)
Unfortunately, I was not paranoid enough to take screen-shots, and a few days later Flight Aware and other tracking sites retrospectively changed those flightpaths to fit in with the official lies that the Dutch are now repeating (possibly quite innocently). If you click on the link in my comment, you now see the falsified flightpath for the 16th of July.
Real Ministry of Truth stuff.
I’m reading a lot about what the putschist side can do with this ceasefire, but nothing about what the forces of Novorossiya can do.
We have seen the war turn on a dime when three battalions of well-trained volunteers were added to the NAF. Might there not be a need to buy time to complete the training of more?
I also have doubts that the population is the fulfillment of everybody’s revolutionary fantasies. People learn slowly.
Unless it’s all about Strelkov, I have missed a backstory on Zakharchenko it seems. I am impressed by him. He’s smart, strong, a man to follow, and a canny propagandist. His shtick with the POWs was lovely. It worked very well for Castro. The Batistianos who surrendered got their scratches bandaged by Che, a nice hot cup of Knorr’s, and a kiss goodbye. The army units who came close to the July 26 fighters couldn’t wait to surrender.
Cassandra Says