Putin and Russia are facing a very serious crisis in Belarus

[this analysis was written for the Unz review]

Some of my longtime readers might have noticed that I rarely (if ever!) wrote about Belarus or President Lukashenko. As always with the blog, there always is a reason for why I do mention something and no less a reason why I do not mention something. In the case of Belarus or Lukashenko, my reason for not writing about them was the exact same why I never wrote about the Ukraine before 2013: I was both uninspired and mostly disgusted with what I saw taking place there. And I did not feel strongly enough to write about it. That changed for the Ukraine with the Euromaidan.

Now the events in Belarus force me to address this very unpleasant topic: Belarus is facing a complex and dangerous crisis which might well result in a major crisis inside Belarus and even a loss of sovereignty. But first, before we look into what just happened, let me begin by a quick “mini-primer” about Belarus. Here is what I think everybody ought to know about this country:

Belarus is a completely artificial creation, even more artificial than the Ukraine. At least in the Ukraine there were “westerners” (Galicians) who truly were not Russians at all (you can think of them as the “real Ukrainians” if you want) and whose hatred for everything Russian was every bit as rabid as the one of the Interahamwe of Rwanda. There is no meaningful equivalent to the Banderites in Belarus.
Lukashenko was no more pro-Russian than Ianukovich. This is crucial. Lukashenko was always pro-Lukashenko, not pro-Russia. Both the West and Lukashenko like to say that Belarus is the only real Russian ally. This is false. Technically, Russia and Belarus are supranational union states. However, it is true that Lukashenko tried to use the historical identity between the Russian and Belarusian people to demand that Russia help him out over and over and over again. And until recently, Russia did.
As a country, Belarus is a quasi perfect police state with an extremely competent and feared KGB (yes, in Belarus they kept the name) which controls everything and everybody. This is also crucial for reasons I will explain below.
As for the Kremlin, it always wanted to foster a reunification with Belarus but this process was never fully completed due to regular problems, and even crises, between Moscow and Minsk. Russia poured immense sums of money to keep the Belarusian society from crashing.
Finally, Belarus is really a poor country with very limited resources. For Russia, however, Belarus is a crucial military ally, one which plays a central role in Russian defense plans. If the US and NATO will be successful in taking control of the country, this will be a major strategic threat for the Russian security.

These are just a few pointers to compare and contrast Belarus with the Ukraine.

Now let me summarize what just happened.

The Belarusian authorities have declared that “hundreds” of men (supposedly Russians) have been sent to Belarus with nefarious intentions. Lukashenko has since officially confirmed that he got this info from the Ukrainian SBU. The men themselves were described as terrorists, insurgents, members of the “Wagner” PMC, subversives, etc. and their goals were described as killing Lukashenko, triggering a new “maidan” in Belarus, create chaos, etc.

Frankly, the Belarusian authorities never got their story straight and, frankly again, this really makes no difference at all. Here are two things which I consider as indisputable:

Russia would never even consider using force or illegal covert operations against Lukashenko and/or Belarus
The Belarusian KGB knows everything of any importance taking place in Belarus

I would even argue that argument #2 very much supports argument #1.

Whatever may be the case, it appeared that a group of Russian security guards had been recruited by a Belarusian firm to provide security in various countries (Sudan and Venezuela is often named). They traveled to Belarus and planned to fly out of Minsk for their final destinations. They were delayed, apparently deliberately, then they missed their flight and were told to go and rest at a hotel which happened to be located not far from the residence of Lukashenko. In the middle of the night, a KGB swat team moved in with flash-bang grenades and guns drawn and brutally arrested everybody in spite of the fact that none of the sleepy Russians offered any kind of resistance. No weapons of any kind were found, no evidence of any covert plans either, but the authorities declared that since these men were not drinking or harassing waitresses and since they kept to themselves, this was a clear proof that they were on a secret mission (I am not joking!).

All of the above is absolute and utter nonsense and we should not get distracted by the minutia of this clearly fabricated pretext.

Here is what really happened.

It now appears that the Ukrainian secret service SBU (which does nothing without Uncle Sam’s approval) mounted a complex covert operation to try to get Belarus and Russia into a confrontation. The entire operation, including recruitment, purchase of airline tickets, etc was, in fact, run from the Ukraine. This was also the biggest mistake the Ukies did: they did not hide their actions well enough and it took the Russians special services less than 24 hours to figure out the entire plan and leak it to the media (in Russian). The fine details are still being ascertained, but the bottom line is this: the Ukrainians pretended to be a security firm looking for men with proven combat experience, especially those who fought in the Donbass against the Ukronazi forces. Once recruited for some pretty typical guard duties, these men were to be flown to Minsk where they would miss their plane and be left waiting for the next opportunity to leave Belarus. At this point, the SBU seems to have contacted the Belarusian KGB and “warned” them about Russian “mercenaries” sent by Russia to kill Lukashenko or, at least, overthrow him.

It is also obvious now that the SBU specially wanted Russians which had combat experience in the Donbass to then ask Belarus to hand them over to Kiev. Such a demand was made almost immediately for most of the men in this group.

So far so “good” (not really, but you know what I mean), but here is when the Belarusians and Lukashenko himself started to act really strangely.

The first logical step for the Belarusian authorities should have been Lukashenko calling Putin and asking for an explanation. Alternatively, the head of the Belarusian KGB could have called the head of the FSB and ask him for clarifications. But, instead of doing that, the Belarusian KGB organized this ridiculous “seizure” of the Russian “mercenaries” while the latter were asleep in their hotel and had no idea whatsoever what was going on.

Next, instead of working with the Russians, Lukashenko just gave a long interview to one of the most talented and most morally repugnant Ukie journalist, Dmitrii Gordon (who proudly proclaims that he is an SBU agent).

But then it only got worse.

Lukashenko pounced on the opportunity to, yet again, engage in his typically long-winded rants against Russia. He even went as far as to suggest that Belarus might extradite some of these Russian men to the Ukraine (which, as we now know, had provided a list of wanted men to the Belarusian KGB). From these actions it became immediately clear to the Russians that Lukashenko was playing some kind of dirty game in the last days before the Presidential election which took place on Sunday.

So what could explain the outright bizarre behavior of the Belarusians?

Reason one: Simply put – Lukashenko’s popularity is declining as fast as the disposable income of the Belarusians.

Reason two: The US is clearly engaged in major strategic PSYOP to seize control of Belarus.

Reason three: The Belarusian state in its current condition is simply not viable and never was.

Let’s take these one by one.

While nobody doubts the outcome of any election in Belarus, it is also pretty uncontroversial that most Belarusians do support Lukashenko. The point is not whether Lukashenko would win, but only by how much he would win? The elections yesterday yielded the lowest possible and acceptable result for Lukashenko: 80%. This figure is really meaningless, all it shows is how good the Lukashenko regime is at winning elections. This time, however, there appear to be more protests than in the past and, unlike what happened in the past, the protests are not limited to Minsk and they have now spread to other cities. So while Lukashenko was never at risk of officially losing the election, a maidan-like protest remains a clear concern for him.

Pompeo in Belarus: only a coincidence, of course

But there is much more to this story.

Following a meeting between Lukashenko and Pompeo, the US will now open a (very big) embassy in Minsk. For years the West has been calling Lukashenko all sorts of names, and now it is suddenly “all smiles”.

Is that really a coincidence?

I very much doubt it.

But it even gets much worse than that: the US is sending one of its most capable and dangerous officials to subvert Belarus: I am referring to Jeffrey Giauque, a State Department intelligence official with a long track of successive destabilization missions.

Listen to him introduce himself to the Belarusian people:

In fact, it is now pretty obvious that the entire provocation with the Russian “terrorists” was carefully crafted and implemented by a joint US-Ukrainian. Had the Ukie SBU not been so sloppy with how they organized it all (it took the FSB less than 24 hours to get a full and accurate picture of what had happened) this plan might have succeeded. In fact, it still might.

But blaming it all on the US, the SBU and Lukashenko really does not tell the full story.

The truth is that Belarus is a completely artificial state, much more artificial even than the Ukraine, and it is a state which simply cannot survive by itself. Neither can it hope to survive forever on Russian aid. And while looking at the roots of Ukrainian nationalism is important and interesting, such an exercise is useless in the case of Belarus since Belarusian nationalism is something truly a-historical and artificial and which really has no foundation outside western ideological dogmas.

While the Soviet Union’s Marxist and generally russophobic ideology regime always fostered the emergence of local nationalisms (and even created previously non-existing “nationalities”), Belarusian nationalism was something which never got much traction, which is hardly surprising since any distinction between a Russian and a Belarusian is much smaller than the differences amongst Russians who now live in a very diverse and truly multi-ethnic society. Still, from the point of view of the Party Nomenklatura and their western curators, not splitting away Belarus from Russia while such countries as the Ukraine or Kazakhstan declared their independence was unthinkable, thus a kind of weird compromise was reached which was supposed to reassure both the people of Russia and those of Belarus. Some agreements were made, others were endlessly negotiated about (especially any energy deals!) and what eventually resulted from this all is this weird and artificial statelet of only 10 million people. As for its leader, he declared that Belarus will follow a “multi-vector” foreign policy which I would summarize as follows: pump as much money out of Russia as possible, while at the same time seeking support from the AngloZionist Empire.

[Sidebar: yes, I know, Lukashenko is called the “last dictator of Europe” and he is not popular in the West. My point is that his lack of popularity is to be credited to the West, and not to him. Over and over again, Lukashenko tried to get support (meaning “money”) from the West and now Pompeo & Co. have apparently decided to make “their” son of a bitch “our” son of a bitch. What I mean by that Lukashenko was the textbook case of the “our son of a bitch” phenomenon, but not for the West – for Russia. I furthermore believe that like all “sons of bitches” (including “theirs” and “ours”) – Lukashenko has now turned into a liability for Russia.]

There is another very worrisome development taking place now: in this entire business the Belarusian KGB was either hopelessly incompetent (which it ain’t!) or penetrated by western agents. I find the second explanation much more likely.

If we now assume that the Belarusian KGB has been penetrated and compromised, then this is very bad news for Lukashenko who might find himself in the same situation as, say, Nicolae Ceaușescu, who was betrayed by his own secret services (we can also remember how many US/Israeli agents were in high position around Bashar Assad until the war in Syria forced them to pick a side).

Frankly, while the CIA and the rest of them are not very good at some things, they are truly world-class masters in the art of corrupting officials and this might have already happened in Belarus.

Right now, there are riots in Minsk and in other cities and while in the capital the riot police has things mostly under control, there have already been cases of riot cops running for their lives to avoid being lynched by the mob. As of the time of writing this (Monday 21:50 UTC) the Belarusian KGB has declared that they are hunting down the worst agitators and rioters, but considering how easy it has been for the Ukrainian SBU to trick (or, worse, infiltrate) the Belarusian KGB, I am not feeling very reassured by this verbiage: special services are here to take care of dangerous problems, not to make big statements.

Right now, the latest we hear from the Belarusian KGB is that they prevented the assassination of the main opposition figure Svetlana Tikhanovskaya. Heck, this might even be true, considering that the (clueless) Tikhanovskaya would make a perfect “sacrificial lamb” (and an terrible politician, should she ever be elected). But this also looks like some interests inside the Belarusian KGB are courting Tikhanovskaya. Both versions are equally bad, I think.

How serious is all this?

Very!

There are already (false) rumors spread by Polish media about Lukashenko having fled Belarus in his aircraft. This rumor is clearly designed to create the (wrong) impression that Lukashenko is the next Ianukovich: while I equally dislike both of these men, Lukashenko is a much tougher man than Ianukovich ever was.

Furthermore, the kind of media-campaign waged now by the western, Polish and Ukie media is unprecedented in its magnitude and it will be very hard for the regime to regain control of the country.

As for Lukashenko, he now seems to have reversed his tune somehow: after accusing Russia of treating Belarus not as a brother, but as a partner, now he says that he spoke to Putin and got a 5 page document explaining it all, and now he says that Russia and Belarus will be brothers after all.

Not very convincing, to say the least.

This is what Lukashenko’s “multivector” policy looks like…

Quite logically, Lukashenko’s popularity in Russia, which was never that high to begin with, is now rapidly degrading and many analysts who, in the past, praised Lukashenko for his (supposedly) “firm” policy towards the West are now openly voicing their disgust. An increasing number of Russians are now openly wondering with this entire “supranational union state” concept. As for Lukashenko’s much vaunted “multi-vector policies” they look like a banal case of trying to sit between two chairs.

It now appears pretty obvious that the leaders of the Empire stopped hating Lukashenko only long enough to give a short lived and semi-credible appearance of benevolence; now they are already talking about reintroducing sanctions on Belarus and on Lukashenko personally.

This is all extremely dangerous for Russia for the following reasons:

Lukashenko is an absolutely terrible “our son of a bitch” (they always are!) to back and his latest antics have shown the Kremlin that Lukashenko is very much part of the problem, not of the solution.
If Lukashenko remains in power, it will be only thanks to his (mostly very effective) repressive apparatus which might be enough to silence the opposition, but not enough to make Lukashenko truly popular.
Lukashenko himself is clearly both dishonest and unprincipled. He does not care one bit about Russia (or Belarus for that matter), he cares only about himself. In other words, as long as he remains in power, Belarus will be a major concern for Russia.
If Lukashenko is overthrown, be it by a KGB plot or a Maidan-like violent insurrection, we can be pretty darn sure that whoever comes to power will be 1) vetted by the USA and 2) rabidly anti-Russian.
Belarus does not have much of an economic significance for Russia, but for security and, even more so, military reasons Belarus is absolutely vital to the Russian security

This last point needs to be further clarified. Not only is Belarus located in a strategically crucial location, the Belarussian armed forces are very well trained and equipped (no comparison to the Ukie forces) and they represent a major military asset for the Kremlin. There are also Russian forces deployed in Belarus. Finally, the contacts between the Belarusian and Russian military are very friendly and very deep. To have NATO take over Belarus would truly be a major problem for Russia (one that she can deal with, but it would require a major re-thinking of the threat from the West).

So where do we go from here?

It seems to me that if Putin does “more of the same” Russia risks seriously losing Belarus which, at a time when the Ukrainian Banderastan is falling apart, would really be a crying shame. Right now, Russia needs to contain the “Ukrainian infection” while, at the same time, preparing an after-Lukashenko (before it is too late). Obviously, Lukashenko will not gracefully resign, so Russia needs to find a tool in her toolkit to force him to do so.

Personally, I have always believed that fully reincorporating Belarus into Russia would not only solve the “Belarusian problem” but that it would also solve the “Lukashenko problem”. I am confident that Russia has more than enough influence and resources in Belarus to force a change. Yes, that would be both difficult and dangerous, but not doing so could result in a much worse outcome. Russia needs to act. Quickly and resolutely.

The Saker

pavlo on August 11, 2020 · at 12:23 pm EST/EDT

Criticizing is easy, but still, I think some comments about Lukashenko/Belarus are too harsh and lack context.

In particular equating with Yanukovich/Ukraine is too far reached.

Unlike Ukraine, and even unlike Russia, Belarus was able to resist to the economic, cultural and psychologic rape imposed by the West.
Belarus was able to keep a lot of the good things from the USSR, either mmaterial or immaterial (like the shared memorie and pride of the common history and glory), at a time when Russia was ruled men like Medved or even Eltsin.
For several years Belarus was more successful resisting than Russia, and that despite not having the same strenght (no nuclear deterrance, no sea access, no UN veto power, etc).

That must not be forgoten, and denying the belarusians their deserved pride for their achievements, and painting them as non existing entities only able to life as parasites of Russia is not only grossly unfair, but it is a political stupidity (which is the worst political crime of all). Do you believe that spiting and denigring the people of White Russia helps to achieve the much needed convergence and union of the people’s ?

Yes, for several years the position of Belarus was quite ambiguos; but remember that it remained and still remain firm on the most important principles (despite all the efforts of the West Belarus is not flirting with NATO, for example), and also that, until quite recently in terms of years, the future of Russia itself was not bright at all (Russia was much more under the West yoke than Belarus). It makes sense that Belarus (a landlocked country) didn’t put all its eggs on the russian basket.
Think about it for a while, what if the current russian president was Medved and Belarus had fully sided with Russia; do you think that a Russia leaded by Medved won’t have collaborated with NATO in the destruction of their neighbour ?
Have you forgotten what happened to Yugoslavia ?

Yes, the current world sitaution has changed, the situation in Russia has changed, and so Belarus tiself has to changed and realign itself.
There is a lot of inertia in politics, so it is no wonder that changes get some time to happen. However, thanks to the stupidity of the West, things will get faster now (because it is truly a big stupidity, for the West, to turn a rather neutral country into a clear opponent; because that were the only possible outcomes, either continued status-quo, or realignement closer to Russia; dreaming of an Ukrainia-like scenario is just a gross lack of knowledge.
Actually the real strong support Lukashenko has comes from the simple fact that the majority of the people there appreciates the stability he gives (and they had a lot of horrible counter exampels all around them to see what the “pro-West reforms” can lead to, economically, culturally, psychologically, and even wars…. should I be a belarussian citizen, I would of course vote for Lukashenko; I wouldn’t like the economic mayhem of the neighboring baltic states, nor the political and war chaos of neighboring Ukraine)

Belarus is NOT like Crimea.

Crimea was russian (not “small” nor “white” nor “new” Russia, just plain Russia), ruled for years by a hostile government that denied Crimea its autonomy, culture and pride. Then there was a coup made by nazi-lovers that dreamed to kill all of its inhabitants.

Belarus has, unlike Crimea, several reasons to keep distinct from Russia (one more voice at the UN, as someone recalled, is also a reason); and it is not ruled by a hostile ethos wanting to culturally erase it;
and if there is a coup attempt, it won’t succeed (and, also unlike Crimea, Belarus has the means to crush the coup attempt by itself).

There is no need for direct intervention, the local security forces are good enough, and the State has the resolve to do wat is needed.

I want a greater conjunction between Russia and Belarus to happen; and there are for sure a lot of things to criticize and change on the bilateral relations.
But that has to be handled in a respectful and brotherly way.
And now is not the moment.

Right now Belarus is under attack by forces of Evil; no matter what the wrongs or even sins of Lukashenko may be, there is a clear difference between the current president and plain Evil (it is not like “Biden vs Trump”, both are evil and we know the policies against the rest of the world will be more or less the same regardless of who will be the next SShA president).
So, the right position at the current moment in time regarding Belarus can only be of complete support for the legitimate government and State. Discrepancies should be kept for later, once the national traitors fully crushed.

119 Comments

Bro 93 on August 10, 2020 · at 11:10 pm EST/EDT

Sounds like Crimea, Take Two.

The crucial question there, besides the little green men………. was the resolutely clear inhabitants there in Crimea.

How does the Belorussian population compare to the Crimean population??……the Donbass Population.???……and….on the more problematic end of the spectrum…..to the Ukrainian population west of Donbass???
- B.F. on August 11, 2020 · at 2:24 am EST/EDT
  
  Bro 93
  In the name of Belarus you will see the word ‘Rus’, which means Russian. And Belarus is indeed an artificial creation. I don’t know of one reason why it should be outside Russia, always finding it strange that it was an independent country. This “independence” will need to change. However, the West will do everything to incorporate Belarus into NATO, due to it’s geopolitical position. This will indeed lead to a conflict with Russia. However, I am confident that Russia will prevail.
  
  As for Lukashenko’s political rival, Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, I have read that she has fled to Lithuania. If true, then it say’s plenty about her and her handlers.
  - Tom Welsh on August 11, 2020 · at 12:19 pm EST/EDT
    
    “I don’t know of one reason why it should be outside Russia…”
    
    The Saker’s explanation looks correct to me. Under the USSR, the government wanted to appease local and nationalist sentiments, so encouraged the segmentation of the USSR into “significant” provinces – such as Georgia, Armenia, Ukraine and Belarus.
    
    Then in 1991 when it all came apart, local politicians everywhere seized as much autonomy as they could get – which was generally everything as Moscow had gone numb.
    
    The politicians preferred to run a country than to be mere apparatchiks in a virtual empire. What would Lukashenko be doing today if Belarus had not declared independence?
    - Aheinousanus on August 14, 2020 · at 11:14 pm EST/EDT
      
      That “segmentation” was Stalin’s idea. Trotsky wanted to blend everything into one Soviet state and erase national identities.
      In this Stalin was correct.
      The interesting thing about the Soviet Union is that there was no landlocked republics. Every one of them had an external border.
      Also the Soviet constitution actually had a clause that made it possible for a republic to break away from the USSR. Of course that was on paper. Reality was much different…until 1991.
  - teranam13 on August 11, 2020 · at 1:21 pm EST/EDT
    
    re: Bro 93 8/11/2020. RT had a clip of her Tikhanovskaya making a statement and she looked absolutely terrified–her statement was totally self referential.
- Curious on August 11, 2020 · at 7:47 pm EST/EDT
  
  Most young Belarusians leave for poland to find work. Where do you their sympathies lie by now? Have you heard od the lublijn triangle?
  
  Lukashenko himself has been nurturing nationalists for at least 15 years.
  Sashka’s domestic policy wrt Russia goes something like this: in the 90’s the limitrophs including Belarus wanted a new patron, for this it was enough to publicly curse Russia (which in their minds was weak and dying anyway).
  In the noughties batska/sashka would say” at least we live better than all our neighbours. ”
  Then Russians started visiting Belarus. Locals saw how well these “poor” tourists looked and cognitive dissonance started setting in. Official explanation was that these were the thieves looting Russia.
  Then belarusians started going to Russia for work. The official explanation shifted to ” it is only Moscow and St Petersburg. When that stopped working the backup plan (nurturing nationalists became the main direction. In 2012? Rostislav Ishchenko remarked that batska had already been nurturing nationalists for 10 years. Russians new all this was going on all that time. Whatever contingency plan they have, we can only hope it works.
  It’s fair to say the damage has been done already.
Larchmonter445 on August 11, 2020 · at 12:01 am EST/EDT

Saker, in 2015, when Lukashenko refused to allow the Russian military to build an air force base, I warned that this was going to become a huge problem.

It has become a huge problem.

The oligarchs-business elites are the only hope for Russia to make a deal with.

This country must be integrated into the Russian Federation.
- grrr on August 11, 2020 · at 1:07 pm EST/EDT
  
  ASAP. To avoid rapid deterioration into very bad conflict. And not with former republics.
- joey_n on August 11, 2020 · at 2:01 pm EST/EDT
  
  Can’t say I object to that. But just one question – and I apologize if it’s a stupid one – should Belarus become integrated with Russia, will its currency go the way of the East German mark, or can it still operate independently in the same way the Hong Kong dollar is independent from the Chinese RMB?
- Conjecture on August 11, 2020 · at 2:30 pm EST/EDT
  
  What are the implications of a response from the West? An extended border of Russia with Ukraine and only 80 kms from Kiev, a border now with Latvia and Lithuania in addition to the current Estonia one and the most dangerous one, a border with Poland.
  It would surely cause immediate apoplexy in high places.
- Auslander on August 11, 2020 · at 3:00 pm EST/EDT
  
  Actually, my friend and comrade, reading the tea leaves says this is pretty much a tempest in a teacup, a west media event to a great extent.
  
  I’ve watched quite some vids of the ‘unrest’ in Minsk and it’s chapter and verse exactly like Maidan, Syria and US, the same training, the same tactics, the same west media coverage. The problem for the ‘peaceful demonstrators’ is Lukashenko is no Yanukovich or lib fop mayor of Portland.
  
  What else? Just a small and little known agreement between Byelorus and Mat Rossiya. Two or three years ago some moron asked President Lukashenko if he would ever send tanks across the border to Orcland. His reply was ‘Never! Never, never never!’ And he was not lying. Problem is the tanks crossing the border to Orcland if needed will be Russian tanks, not Byelorus tanks. Methinks VVP will not let Byelorus become Kiev and the land of orcs.
  
  Auslander
TRM on August 11, 2020 · at 12:02 am EST/EDT

What are the possibility of a “Crimean” solution? Where the majority of the Belarus armed forces accept Russian citizenship and that’s pretty much the end of it.
- Tom Welsh on August 11, 2020 · at 12:41 pm EST/EDT
  
  In Crimea there was virtually no civil authority at the time of the plebiscite. In Belarus the armed forces are an important factor, as is the KGB.
  
  If both of those align themselves with Russia, it should be possible to conduct a rapid referendum and petition Moscow for membership of the RF.
Greifenberg on August 11, 2020 · at 12:27 am EST/EDT

This seems to be a very serious provocation indeed. How much more of this is Russia going to take? Are the Russians going to let Moscow be occupied and then burn the city to the ground?
J. Figueiredo on August 11, 2020 · at 12:44 am EST/EDT

Warning: Belarus have a seat at United Nations in quality of independent country.
This is a problem if Belarus in incorporated in Russia.
- Tom Welsh on August 11, 2020 · at 12:20 pm EST/EDT
  
  In that event, Russia would have two seats! Ho ho.
  - kampfbeobachter on August 11, 2020 · at 1:23 pm EST/EDT
    
    After the end of WWII Ukraine and Belarus were allowed to declare “independence” within the Warsaw pact. That gave the UDSSR 3 voices in the UN.
- Campos on August 12, 2020 · at 3:42 pm EST/EDT
  
  Belarus has a seat since the very beginning of the UN! The Ukraine too. It was a strange situation, that the USSR had in fact 3 seats. And for decades it was not “a problem being incorporated” in the Soviet Union. Why should it be now?
Anonymous on August 11, 2020 · at 12:44 am EST/EDT

Excellent outline.

Re: “I furthermore believe that like all “sons of bitches” (including “theirs” and “ours”) – Lukashenko has now turned into a liability for Russia.”

It looks like the Nord Stream 2 pipeline to Germany is the lynch-pin in many strategic state projects — and once it is operational then Ukrainian transit leverage will reduce significantly (and rapidly) for Russia and Europe.

However, although Putin has historically ‘administered’ the Russian emergence from post-soviet dissolution hell extremely effectively, has his time come? This seemingly ‘dovish’ appeasement to USA/Nato aggressive expansionism eastward comes at a great price. A Trump regime is clearly a slightly better option than a Biden regime for Russian security but the US MIC madness is systemic and will grow like a cancer without treatment.

But what is the best treatment? Based on your description this situation potentially has many complex dimensions — including a live ‘dry run’ exhibition/demonstration of just how close Lukashenko himself is at risk whichever way. If what you write is accurate then Putin may just have a small Mona Lisa smile on his dial as he pens his letter to Lukashenko. A lot of people playing with fire atm. The only omission from your report is the dynamics between the KGB and the military — it would seem to be Grand Canyons apart. So if military systems and cultures are aligned between Russia and Belarus then how does this ‘trump’ (or not) the political/security domain circling around Lukashenko? It looks like chaos is almost certain, but from it what? A military coup?
- Curious on August 11, 2020 · at 7:57 pm EST/EDT
  
  Lukashenko should worry first of all about makei and his team. It would not suprise me if they are at the center of this operation. They have in fact been western assets ( I admit I use this term loosely here)for years.
katerina on August 11, 2020 · at 1:04 am EST/EDT

As a Russian (born in St Petersburg), I had lived (and studied) for many years in Minsk. I can tell you right away the difference between Russia and Belarus is nil. NONE. In fact the name itself, Belarus means “Belaya Rossia”, which is in translation – White Russia. It has never been anything else than integral part of Russia and should always remain so. As Saker rightly said, it will never survive without Russia. The problem with Lukashenko is quite simple – someone who came from very rural, agricultural and not very well educated background to gain Presidency of a small country and who has been there for TOO LONG! And when they are there for that long they start to imagine themselves as being exceptionally smart and clever, also become very corrupt and at the same time totally disconnected from reality, and then they (unfortunately for them) decide to try their hand at being some sort of major players on the global chessboard. Often to their demise. We have seen that happen over and over again – things get way over their heads and they still cannot comprehend it. Unfortunately for Lukashenco he did not learn any lessons from his southern neighbours, Ukraine, and will end up same as Yanukovitch – running for his life. And where else – to Russia! Absolute and utter self promoting moron who stayed in power ONLY because the whole economy of Belarus was supported by Russia. That reminds me of someone else who is another self promoting moron, with illusions of grandeur..
- larry, dfh on August 11, 2020 · at 3:31 pm EST/EDT
  
  truimp? biden? macron? bolsonaro? johnson? What passes for western leaders today is truly a very sad lot.
  My father’s mother was from Belarus. We referred to her as White Russian. My mother’s father was from Ukraine. We referred to him as Russian. I believe that is how they considered themselves.
  My mother’s mother was from “what you would now call Poland”. They fought in Russian.
  My father’s father was from Lithuania. I don’t know in what language they quarreled, but I assume it was also Russian. In my family, Russian is the language of unhappy marriages!
- Brahim on August 11, 2020 · at 6:51 pm EST/EDT
  
  Who knows, perhaps Lukashenko will soon develop a taste for neck ties.
- Analyst on August 12, 2020 · at 10:54 pm EST/EDT
  
  Katerina
  
  Your description of the situation in Belarus and Lukashenkos attitude is the most succinct and accurate analysis i have read. The various forces are already starting to show – there is the Lithuanian Foreign Ministry acting on behalf of the USA and EU to try to flirt with the Belarus population and weave Belarus into the western European spiders web, to gain another ex USSR territory for the Anglo-Zionist world…There are the loyal troops and police, keen to keep their country from flying apart and hopefully able to prevent another Maidan Style Coup. There is the politically naive population, feeling comfortable with the commercial links they have developed towards Western Europe and thinking it is the Land of Milk and Honey. This all does not look good…i hope the Polite Green Men appear, to keep out the malevolent westerners.
Band Itko on August 11, 2020 · at 1:07 am EST/EDT

This seems like a projection of the US instability and the West as a whole, while the approaching elections and bad economy in the US add fuel to the fire.

Russia should have some prepared plans for this and cannot be completely surprised. They know all the risks around Lukashenko and Belarus for years and the approaches of the US and their current status.

One way to go is a military coup in Belarus and from there all the pertaining things. But if confidence is high in the pro-Russian moods in the Belarusian population, then Russia can afford to wait much longer. However, I don’t think they will allow any US-vetted rule in Belarus, while Lukashenko being outed has its positive sides.
Bro 93 on August 11, 2020 · at 1:30 am EST/EDT

Tore Says it pretty much the way Saker Says it………….with lots of video …….Byelorussian political and Antifa (Soros) Riot footage:

https://youtu.be/JuyemreZAc0?t=6927
Josep on August 11, 2020 · at 2:36 am EST/EDT

Well, that stinks. I didn’t think it’d end up like this.
I could remember that months ago a site like anti-empire.com did articles praising Lukashenko, and Belarus in general, for not imposing lockdowns nationwide and bashing Putin for doing the same throughout Russia. IIRC one such article even wished that Lukashenko would annex the entirety of Russia. While it didn’t compromise my faith in Putin, it did pique a brief interest in Belarus and its differences from Russia, such as the currency system. Now that I’ve read this, I’m not so sure now.
- SteveK9 on August 11, 2020 · at 6:17 pm EST/EDT
  
  Not imposing lockdown was an unalloyed ‘good thing’. I also think the Victory Day Parade in Minsk, shamed Putin into re-instating the parade in Moscow. I also think Putin wised up to the lockdown nonsense reasonably quickly, and did not allow Russia to be fully infected with the ‘mind virus’, the disgusting irrational fear that has swallowed up the US. I don’t know anything about Lukashenko or Belarus, but as someone suffering under this mass hysteria, I was happy to see any country not lose its mind.
RE. on August 11, 2020 · at 3:06 am EST/EDT

For making us the “wonderfulest”, Lukashenko made that mistake that Machiavelli enunciated in ‘The Prince’: the one that you have to take a side with one of two sides in dispute because, otherwise, the loser cannot be your ally and the winner will have the slightest confidence in you. Told as a Christian, Lukashenko will be a drag on any of the two projects that tower over Belarus (especially from a military point of view): “pro-Russia project” (in Putin phase) and “pro NATO project”.

Imperative for Tsar Putin to contain the NATO advance; from Estonia to Ukraine, passing through Lithuania and Poland, the defense line would recede through the center, coming from the west, endangering russian security.

We continue reading Saker and observing the happenings in the lands of the magnificent Vitali Shcherbo and the ignominious Szymon Perski (AKA Shimon Peres).
- Tom Welsh on August 11, 2020 · at 12:27 pm EST/EDT
  
  It instructive to observe the geographic extent of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth in 1648. (The time of the Second English Civil War and the trial of King Charles I for treason).
  
  Those who are ignorant of history are doomed to take a deeply superficial and biased view of the present (and the future).
  
  https://enacademic.com/pictures/enwiki/80/Polish-Lithuanian_Commonwealth_in_1648.PNG
  - Vladimir on August 11, 2020 · at 3:50 pm EST/EDT
    
    And the ”Intermarium” and ”Pormethean” projects of the Vatican and Pilsudski of Poland between the two world wars intended to resurrect that Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth. In my opinion, the Vatican still does to this day.
    - basileus on August 13, 2020 · at 2:43 am EST/EDT
      
      Exactly. the Vatican exerting a very powerfull power on western elites is creating all this mess in Eastern Europe, because it has convinced those elites that no Nato and EU power will be able to consolidate on the long run without a changing of the cultural code of the orthodox populations.
      Paul Goble of the Jameson institute and luminaries of Chatham House have promoted for years the resurrection of the Prometean strategy and the Intermarium. The two main strategists for this were archiduke Otto von Habsburg and Zbinjiew Bzezinski.
  - RE. on August 11, 2020 · at 7:28 pm EST/EDT
    
    Very true. The historical-geopolitical aspect must always be taken in any multidimensional analysis that seeks -apart from philias and phobias- to find the truth.
    
    Here it can be seen that there is something valid in the idea of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth ↓
    
    https://www.thefirstnews.com/article/polish-lithuanian-parliamentary-heads-mark-historic-union-6580
    
    Now, the cake called “Planet Earth” is only able to be distributed to three hands: NATO bloc (USA), Eurasia (Russia) and the Asia-Pacific hegemony, through the new three silk routes (China). Wherever you see, move and accommodate, without the support of the three mentioned actors, almost nothing can happen (spontaneous skirmishes perhaps).
    
    Multipolarity is today.
djole on August 11, 2020 · at 3:13 am EST/EDT

Putin is not doing anything he should and is passively watching what is happening in Belarus. He is there to amortize the situation. He is a puppet filter like Vucic is in Serbia. Draw parallels between the destruction of the Russian state and the Serbian state.Lets see……
Among the Russians the Belarus communists are blocking the creation of a single state, among the Serbs, the communists in Montenegro. Nazis in Ukraine, in Croatia too. Krajina was reintegrated at the request of Milosevic into the system of Ukraine, Putin speculates that Donbas will be reintegrated into Ukraine. After the arrival of the Croatian forces, the Serbs moved out, and the same will happen with the Russians from Donbas. In Croatia, people are being assimilated into political Croats, same is happening in Ukraine with the Russians. The DB(yugoslav communist service) of Serbia removed the leaders of the rebel battalion in Krajina in cooperation with the Croats, the same happened in Donbas. Gas flows were by war deliberately halted, followed by two more new gas flows from the north and south filling the pockets of shareholders. When the two new streams are completed, the Ukrainian one will also be reopen. They will probably agree with the bosses not to interfere in the assimilation of Russians into Ukrainians. Integration with the Germans and Austrians is also being forced, and they are also preparing a new union for Serbs with former murderers. How much corruption is there today, can you imagine what will it be like in the Union from Lisbon to Vladivostok? Furthermore, in Central Asia, the Turkish identity of the Scythian Polovci in Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan was forced and is still allowed, leaving the assimilation of these people into the Mongoloid population. Although the history of Kumania, Sogdiana, Margiana, Kusania speaks differently. Instead of Turkestan state creation under influence of Russia being made from Alma Ata to Samarkand (behind the Karakum and Kizilkum deserts), the whole of Central Asia is indulging in Turkification. Why? Afterwards, they will be able to throw those people at the Russians again. It is the same with the Bosniaks in Bosnia, to whom the Yugoslav communists were the first to give a political nation (together with the Macedonians and Montenegrins – draw a parallel with Ukraine, Belarus). First they were Muslims with a capital M, and 93 ‘UN agreed to call themselves Bosniaks. Bosniaks are already fighting today to make Orthodox Serbs…..Bosniaks of the Orthodox faith.They invoke the Ottoman mentality. At the beginning of the 20th century, Vienna and London formed a nation of Albanians, from northern Serbs and southern Greeks with some other mixed ethnicities. The Communists support the communist leader of Albania, Enver Hodzha, in separating the serbian tribes from the Serbs, supporting creation of an Albanian identity that did not exist until the 20th century. Draw parallels with the Russia. In Slovenia- former Yugoslav country, the Serbs received the papers only after twenty years, draw a parallel with the Baltic states. Russians are being humiliated and killed across borders and in Russia (hockey country), the world mafia is laundering money and football stadiums are being built. Today, Serbs after they have been expelled from Croatia, Kosovo, Bosnia,(they want to evict them from Montenegro as well) … Vucic and globalist puppets plans to build stadiums in order to run a joint European Football Championship with children nations who killed Serbs??? We are acting like incompetent parents and uneducated adolescents.
- djole on August 11, 2020 · at 6:03 am EST/EDT
  
  Sakeru, you had the same coup attempt staged in Montenegro a year ago by the communists regime together with the passive rulers and DB service in Serbia. The Serbian red fascists bourgeoisie was silent, pretending to be a clumsy, while the non-governmental organizations managed to blame the Serbian hegemonism for the non-existent coup. The elections are yet to be held in Montenegro. It’s the same pattern. Black-red international against Serbs and Russian unification.
  In Poland, both communists and atheists worked on the Polishization of the Pomeranians, Slunjans and Prussians. Among the Russians, the Soviets broke up the Russians into small pieces. It is the same with the Croats who were one province in the north of today’s Croatia, and received first from the Yugoslav king Karadjordjevic (the first Yugoslav non-Serbian king) Slavonia and Dubrovnik, later from the communists (by expelling the Italians) Dalmatia and Istria. Today, the Yugoslav Patriarch of Ecumenism(not Serbian) tells us to invite the Red Pope to Serbia after genocide in Jasenovac by his priesthood. Dacic, a socialist in the government of Vucic (otherwise Lavrov’s henchman), openly called on the cardinal from Vienna to make a concordat with the Catholic Church.
- Distiller on August 12, 2020 · at 9:05 am EST/EDT
  
  Truth is most people will give away their identity for a slice of bred. Because the statistically relevant majority does not understand and does not care. That’s why there is mostly no resistance to the “elites” grand plans – whatever they might be.
  
  One thing is true: VVP is too slow. And he (and his group) is still unwilling? / unable? to go full steam ahead against the Empire. That’s why in the end, however good job he has done stabilizing Russia after the chaos of the 2000’s, he only slows Russia’s decline but does not lead it into a sovereign future. I never figured out why the pro-Empire forces in the Russian government have an almost free hand in wrecking (as they would have called it earlier) the Russian state. Industry, banking, trade – everywhere you find characters in leading positons whose loyality is questionable.
jiri on August 11, 2020 · at 3:40 am EST/EDT

Send in the little green men.
- JJ on August 11, 2020 · at 5:38 am EST/EDT
  
  Perhaps this is a scenario being made to kind of tempt Russia to take action within Belarus ….so further demonisation against Putin can be made….justifying their previous actions sanctions etc over Crimea…..Donbass is not settled yet either.. . Kiev again messing around trying to buy time with a ceasefire trying to prove they are the good guys…. even though itself seems to a sort of festering sore . Russia has resisted the temptation into Ukraine…. but a smaller temptation is being set now to see how Russia might deal with it and expose their methodology so USA can learn from this.
  
  Interstingly enough Lukashenko claimed UK Poland (probably feeling emboldened and successful as a lead supporter of Nato policy against Russia and maybe EU)Ukraine and Czechslovakia Rep.were orchestrating the troubles….Czech Rep has expelled they claim 2 Russian intelligence officers….Russia has responded…..maybe the Russ.officers were getting too near the truth….maybe Lukashenko is correct.
Commentator Mike on August 11, 2020 · at 3:50 am EST/EDT

To be a democrat now simply means to be pro-Western even going against the wishes of the majority as expressed in democratic elections.
- Tom Welsh on August 11, 2020 · at 12:31 pm EST/EDT
  
  Decades ago Noam Chomsky explained the difference between what Washington calls “democratic” and “communist” governments.
  
  A “democratic” government (according to Washington) is one that obeys all orders from Washington, thereby enriching American plutocrats and their corporations while impoverishing its own people.
  
  A “communist government (according to Washington) is one that acts in the interests of its nation and its people.
  
  Needless to say, ever since 1776 the USA has had a “democratic” government.
JJ on August 11, 2020 · at 4:57 am EST/EDT

Thank you.
I can imagine USA claiming they are serving peoples by going to investigate and publish anything they can find or invent to bring down Belarus claiming they are behaving to expose corruption….protect democracy etc etc. Sounds like they have in place now a similar methodology to the Turkish attempt to unseat Erdogan …but are more likely to succeed.
Lukashenko pointed out that IMF terms and conditions to assist the economy and re the virus were totally onerous .
No coincidence that Esper( thanks Eric Zuesse for recent article ) said USA wants to move missiles right up to the Russian border to deter it..this is happening. Lebanon political crisis could now be exposed via the unfortunate events in a similar way to confront Hezbollah…Syria…Iran and of course Russia in that region?
Both situations extremely serious.
Belarus opposition leader has fled to a Baltic country….surely to be looked after as a symbol of young peoples mistaken hopes and beliefs carefully nurtured by the ideology of western idealisms .

https://greatgameindia.com/belarus-world-bank-coronavirus-conditions/
- JJ on August 11, 2020 · at 7:41 am EST/EDT
  
  “Poland
  
  The Polish Foreign Minister, Jacek Czaputovich, stated during a press conference that the EU may consider to introduce new sanctions against Belarus. According to him — «everything depends on the development of the situation, and the actions of the authorities in Minsk. The sanctions will be one of the options for consideration» — the minister explained. He expressed his hope that such scenario won’t happen. Earlier, the Prime Minister of Poland, Mateusz Morawiecki, came up with an initiative to hold an extraordinary EU summit, dedicated to the situation in Belarus after the presidential elections in the country. «Poland is responsible for the closest neighbors. Thus, the Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki, in his letter to the head of the European Council, Charles Michel, and to the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, called for an extraordinary EU summit due to the events in Belarus» — said the statement on the official website of the Polish government.”
  
  Extract annanews eng
  https://anna-news.info/elections-in-belarus-protests-in-beirut/
  Ahah……a Polish agenda confirmed after Lukashenko said it was one of the countries behind events.
Craig Mouldey on August 11, 2020 · at 5:25 am EST/EDT

Mr. Putin is a very well educated man historically. I hope he is not somehow blind to what is going on and how threatening it is. When the likes of a smiling Pompeo and any of their ‘diplomats’ show up with sweet words, then know evil is knocking on the door. There is no interest in peace and cooperation. Mark Esper recently let slip out of his mouth that they must ‘prevent peace in Europe’. Likewise, the empire of evil never ‘brings their troops home’ when they say they are pulling troops out of any of the many locations they are found. They are withdrawing some thousands from Germany only to place them, more provocatively and dangerously in Poland and the Baltic states. There is a reason to keep moving equipment and troops closer and closer to the Russian border. The U.S. has long had the intent to launch a first strike against Russia and end it quickly. They are willing to sacrifice if need be some U.S. cities. This intention is not new. Perhaps the U.S. believes Europe will take most of the Russian response, leaving North America mostly not scorched.
Such a war may be nearer than we want to admit.
- Tom Welsh on August 11, 2020 · at 12:37 pm EST/EDT
  
  Of course this potential uproar in Belarus makes sense of Washington’s troop movements towards the front line in Poland and the Baltics (and, presumably, Ukraine – though less publicised).
  
  Should there be a revolution in Belarus – a “Maidan” – US troops and weapons would be positioned to cross the borders and take an active hand. In the conditions of a revolution, Belarusian politicians could easily be found to award themselves authority and thus make the invasion appear legitimate. (The whole Guaido episode could be nothing more than a rehearsal of such events).
  
  Moscow should make sure it has absolutely clear contingency plans for everything that might happen, and that it communicates those with unmistakeable clarity to Western governments. Belarus is an ally of Russia, so any attempt by Western forces to enter Belarus – with or without a political pretext – should be treated as an invasion of Russia itself.
  
  There would then arise practical questions, such as how to exterminate Western forces without harming Polish/Baltic/Ukrainian civilians and their property.
  
  Of course, if Belarus really is deeply, fundamentally Russian, one would hope that its people themselves would utterly reject any Western invasion.
Nachtigall on August 11, 2020 · at 6:32 am EST/EDT

The core of all of this nonsense, was and is, Russia’s un-sovereign state. First the almost complete destruction of Russia’s statehood in the 90s and early 2000s. Than Putin’s emergency rescue of the Russian state from 99 till approx. 2014. Than partial re-sovereignization till today. Russia as a society still has largely no clue where to go, only rough slogans like “be more independent, patriotic and import substitution”. It still has the same economic mantras, controlled by a “liberal” elite, which center of life – esp. ideologically – is located in the West. The Orthodox Christian belief is very much only nominal for most of Russia’s society (closing churches in Corona times is the best proof of that), most don’t belief in anything, esp. the youth which is marveling in Western cultural depravity (rap, sexual degeneracy, materialism…). The elites offspring takes this to the stratosphere; much, much worse than in the West.

Therefore, Russia has no good approach towards ex-Soviet states. It wants integration, but tells others to stay sovereign, while its enemies use every trick and tool to subvert and pit its neighbors against it. Look at Ukraine, Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, the Baltic states and increasingly Central Asian states, now Belorussia, it’s one big f* up and disaster. I would argue that Russia also sits on many chairs and pretends to be a “normal country”. What normal country? How can a state be normal if it is effectively ruling over approx. 1/3 of the earths resources and potentially ruling the biggest continent on earth? Its success originates from its shared beliefs, common goals, culture and unique ability to form political entities, which for the most part have satisfied its people and survived centuries. Even the existence of the Soviet empire was a kind of freak reverse empire by building up its periphery. Russia trying to imitate others will be the end of it. Not committing to a shared, valuable goal will lead to nowhere and its people will legitimately ask themselves: “Why even stay together in a state?”. Millions already made the decision to emigrate, millions would if they had the opportunity. The only reason, even with the appearance of Putin, that Russia still exists are the Russians who still recognize themselves as such and won’t betray their history, culture and beliefs…

To sum it up, in the 21.Century the core of the Russian state is rotten much like in the West, maybe not as bad. Those countries, which have 1000s of years of a rich cultural background like India, China (even if the CCP destroyed much of the material evidence of it), do have more of a stable foundation to fall back onto.

Atomized, clueless, ignorant, stingy and self-centered are the maxims of our times.
- JJ on August 11, 2020 · at 7:45 am EST/EDT
  
  I think there maybe a return of peoples to the idea of Russia as a safe haven of stability with prospective future when they see the chaos elsewheres .
- Anomalous on August 11, 2020 · at 8:00 am EST/EDT
  
  Russia does not have a rich cultural background? After Constantinople was conquered by the Ottomans the Byzantine culture lived on in Russia.
  https://www.thebyzantinelegacy.com/kiev
- Edgar Palacio on August 11, 2020 · at 2:07 pm EST/EDT
  
  Oiga Natchigall, creo que usted da en el clavo. Rusia es el país territorialmente mas grande del mundo y políticamente el mas cercano a la “democracia” que “pregonan” nuestras elites occidentales y sin embargo se muestra como un niño en asuntos relativos al manejo mundial. Pero yo le achaco esa posición o actuación al hecho de que tienen una vision mucho mas humanista del mundo y saben a lo que enfrentan a la civilización si actuaran tal como muchos de nosotros quisieramos. Creo que los dos grandes líderes del mundo del Este, Putin y Xi Jinping están dando un manejo adecuado al problema a nivel global pero seguramente a niveles locales algunas veces se les escapa de las manos la situación debido precisamente a que no quieren disparar la chispa de la guerra global. También es cierto que estos problemitas a niveles locales pueden encender un gran fuego que nos abrase a todos.
  ——————-
  Google-translate from the mod:
  “Hey Natchigall, I think you hit the nail on the head. Russia is the territorially largest country in the world and politically the closest to the “democracy” that our western elites “proclaim” and yet it shows itself as a child in matters related to world management. But I attribute that position or performance to the fact that they have a much more humanistic vision of the world and they know what they face civilization if they act as many of us would like. I believe that the two great leaders of the Eastern world, Putin and Xi Jinping, are handling the problem adequately at the global level, but surely at the local level, the situation sometimes gets out of hand precisely because they do not want to fire the spark of the global war. It is also true that these little problems at the local level can ignite a great fire that embraces us all.”
- SteveK9 on August 11, 2020 · at 6:36 pm EST/EDT
  
  Please suggest a ‘shared, valuable goal’. Putin’s last ‘State of the Union Address’ had plenty of ‘shared goals’. Did you read it? How about some comments on the speech? You could go point by point, and judge them as nonsense, good, whatever.
  - Nachtigall on August 12, 2020 · at 1:59 am EST/EDT
    
    Tell that to his ministers and other state apparatchiks. They are regularly caught red handed by not completing or flat out ignoring his national program’s. Almost none of his national programs, except for defense or infrastructure, which he personally oversees, were completed. Siluanov, Nabiulina, Kudrin etc. are all living in the Washington consensus type world and perpetuate the looting of Russia with free flow of (looted) capital. Have you even noticed dozens of Russian banks had to be rescued by the state or completely closed in recent years, because of their outright criminal lending practices i.e. lend and escape (to Londongrad)? The de facto prohibition of the Rubel to become an investment vehicle? The mythical foreign investments? The absence of any coherent large scale development of connected industries from raw materials to finished goods? The pathetic goal to become a Chinese pipeline for export goods to Europe? Major figures in economic and political life are brazenly russophobic and are systematically undermining the Russian state. One small example is Gref, who openly criticized Russia’s education system to be to good in producing free thinking individuals, which are hard to control. State sponsored (Gazprom media) media like Dohzd, theatres, movies and political education are pro West (Yeltsin center, MSE f.e.). NGO’s are still at large in Russia. Education, media, health, transportation, economic (and more state) policy is firmly in the hands of liberal elites. There is no pro-Russian coherent system of ideas aka ideology. There are islands of sanity in a sea of liberal chaos, which makes a coherent state policy impossible. If your ideology is pro-Russia: than you will never accept an economic policy, which relies on foreign investments instead of internal vehicles, you will not accept foreign educational principles like the Bologna system of degradation, you will not accept any political interference in internal affairs, you will not accept an on globalism based concept of free flow of goods, services and people, you will not accept a disastrous foreign policy towards your neighbors, which turns them into enemies – this is not an exhaustive list, but you might get the idea when I talk of a systematic approach culminating in an ideology. It must not be rigid, fluid, as in effective and based on reality. It has to be constantly adapted to serve the Russian people some times as armor, sometimes as a weapon and other times as perimeter to guard spiritual development.
    
    For Russian speakers I recommend the youtube channel: “радиостанция аврора” and particularly videos with Dugin, Khazin and Delyagin. I don’t agree with all of their criticism, but in principle.
    
    It’s like Putin says all the right words, but the state apparatus is stocked with swamp creatures, which sabotage pro Russian policies every step of the way. This is in no way to run a country, this is a path straight to agonizing degradation and to hell, if there is no suitable successor and a Medvedev or Yeltsin type takes over.
  - Nachtigall on August 12, 2020 · at 4:41 am EST/EDT
    
    One concrete example, concerning Belarus, is the creation of a ministry of reintegration of ex-Soviet states, call it Eurasia ministry. This ministry should receive executive rights (even supersede the foreign ministry in matters of SNG matters) and all the necessary resources to execute its job. I’m not for an another bureaucracy per se, it should be founded with the explicit goal of reintegrating the former republics into an Eurasian entity call it Russia, call it Eurasian Union and after the goal is achieved it should be dissolved. Agitprop for the masses, covert ops (against enemy entities in those republics), NGOs – (I know, I know, all of this a grey area, but just look at the sentiment in the Ukrland in 90s and now it was brotherly to now enemy) if you don’t offer something someone else will and you won’t be happy with it. It should be run through a member of the security council.
    
    Also this democracy circus should be abolished, a system which is based on consensus with a much more expert executive, albeit a topic for a different discussion.
subhuti37 on August 11, 2020 · at 6:34 am EST/EDT

For what it’s worth, every young Belarusan I have met hates Russia and is a Belarusan nationalist or even a fan of 5th Column Russian liberal, don’t want to be part of Russia.

My impression is that they also don’t like Lukashenko, who (like Putin, according to them) is a dictator who wants to stay in power forever.

Of course these are only about 5 that I have met. One lives in Thailand and runs her little import export business. Another, spends time in Thailand but lives in Belarus. The other three were simply travelers. So maybe it’s not a representative sample.

However, it seems symptomatic of young people who are ‘anti establishment’ and quite cynical. Western brainwashing has worked, at least in Eastern Europe.

I have yet to meet anyone from Eastern Europe who is proRussia.
- Anonymous on August 11, 2020 · at 9:59 am EST/EDT
  
  I agree that most eastern europeans in the west are loudly anti-Russian, but this is also because theis attitude is welcomed by people in the west and europeans know that russiaphobia will be rewarded socially. They also wish to distance themselves from the west’s hatred of Russia., they
  And yes, just send in t e polite men in green as soon as possible – the west already paints Russia as bad and expansionist for defending Crimea, adding Belarus will make no difference in western propaganda.
- Tom Welsh on August 11, 2020 · at 12:46 pm EST/EDT
  
  “However, it seems symptomatic of young people who are ‘anti establishment’ and quite cynical”.
  
  It’s quite a trick that they project such beliefs, and yet always immediately obey orders from Western governments.
  
  Edward Bernays is smiling somewhere. Yes, as he always maintained, you CAN have “democracy” without democracy. Or even rational thought.
- Corto on August 11, 2020 · at 5:24 pm EST/EDT
  
  “… I have yet to meet anyone from Eastern Europe who is proRussia … ”
  
  You should go to Serbia then. Huuuge majority there is pro Russian. V. Putin is most popular politician. If Serbs could elect him as a president of Serbia, he would win by a landslide.
Aldino Graef on August 11, 2020 · at 7:00 am EST/EDT

In fact, Russia cannot allow Minsk to be governed by NATO. National security issue. Any risk in this regard should put the option of attachment on the table. There is no other way out. And, the risk appears to be imminent.
- JJ on August 11, 2020 · at 2:41 pm EST/EDT
  
  Strange that Lukashenko has 80%…..yet Babich says people have been upset with his attitudes behaviours to Russia….yet the protestors want…not Russia?
  Crimeans proceeded with a referendum to determine their own direction. But if Belarussans do the same but decide to go westwards metaphorically….that is their particular self determination? Sauce for the goose….etc
  - Nachtigall on August 13, 2020 · at 10:02 am EST/EDT
    
    Saker often refers to politrussia, let me refer to them in this case:
    
    https://youtu.be/k60ll9Vzusk
Rancid on August 11, 2020 · at 7:36 am EST/EDT

I do find it interesting that there is an actual coup in Ukraine and now trouble brewing in Belarus, and yet Russian intelligence seemed oblivious to it all? If you can’t see what is happening in your own backyard then how do you ever intend operate on a global scale and play with the big boys? Presumably if China for whatever reason in the future decided it wanted some territory returned would they see that coming either?
Straight-Bat on August 11, 2020 · at 7:40 am EST/EDT

Wonderfully presented perspectives, Saker !
“Russia needs to act. Quickly and resolutely”.

Suggesting a new union, 3 months back I wrote “This year will go down in history either as the era of Russ civilizational turnaround or as the era when such opportunity was turned down”…
Link –
/towards-a-new-dawn-of-collective-community-in-a-new-union/

Russian leaders need to act – artificial regions created for administrative purposes can’t be nation-states. Beylorussia , Malorussia, Novorussia were such administrative regions created by Tsarist Russia and reinforced by Communist Russia … This is high time to stich the union together afresh – start with core Russ, Russia will find other societies also.

Leaders like Lukashenko always live for their own benefits, not for the long-term benefits of the society they, apparently, represent.
Biswapriya Purkayastha on August 11, 2020 · at 8:06 am EST/EDT

I fail to understand the reference to the Interahamwe. After all anyone who’s done any independent reading knows perfectly well that there was no Hutu on Tutsi genocide in Rwanda, but the exact opposite; Ugandan armed, trained, and financed Tutsi forces who invaded Rwanda and massacred Hutu and Twa civilians. The Interahamwe (and Impuzamugambi, another outfit that nobody talks of for some reason) were militia that tried to protect Hutu civilians and fight back when the weak Rwandan military and gendarmerie, crippled by a weapons embargo, were overwhelmed. By the way, Tutsis in the Rwandan armed forces overwhelmingly remained loyal and fought alongside their Hutu comrades against the Ugandan Tutsi invasion. The “Rwanda genocide” is as much a myth as “Saddam’s WMDs”, “Gaddafi’s Viagra rape gangs”, “Putin’s 2016 election interference”, or “Saddam’s gas attacks.” The Interahamwe, therefore, was not motivated by hatred, but by self defence.

Now coming to Belarus. I will say right away that my only knowledge of Belarus comes from the film “Idi I Smotri”, so it’s not as though I have any independent information on it. I do however know that there is a language called Belarusian which is separate from Russian; therefore, logically, there is a Belarusian people who are separate from Russians, and in turn a people and a language argue that a state of those people and language, viable or otherwise, is not artificial.

I’m in any case wondering exactly what the Saker wants Russia to do about Belarus. Assuming the country is really the basket case the Saker says, how exactly is Russia supposed to pay to integrate and assimilate it even if an annexation was possible? Have Belarusians asked for integration with Russia? The Donbass people have, and yet Russia has not annexed the Donbass. Russia has not annexed Transnistria, South Ossetia, or Abkhazia either, no matter how advantageous they would be strategically. So what exactly is so different that Russia would want to annex Belarus, given that the people haven’t even asked for annexation?

How is this annexation to take place anyway? Are the Belarusian armed forces – well trained and armed, the Saker says – going to surrender without a shot? Will they be bribed with money and/or promotional opportunities to accede to Russia? How would the Russian army feel about Belarusian troops being paid more than and promoted over the heads of Russians? If the KGB is so efficient, how are they supposed to be stopped from learning of the plan and exposing it at the earliest? What if the Belarusian army and people resist integration? What will Russia do then? Fight an aggressive war, like it did not do in Ukraine?

Then there is the fact that Russian foreign policy under Putin has always been reactive, not proactive. In other words Putin only acts when his hand is forced. He could have easily sent forces into Ukraine to stop the Maidan; he could have overtly packed South Ossetia with troops to avert the Georgian invasion (Medvedev was only a front for Putin); he could have sent troops into Syria before Assad’s government was on the brink of collapse at the hand of Obama’s jihadi headchoppers. Putin either waits till he has no other option before acting, or does not act at all (Libya, the zionist entity’s bombing of Syria). What makes the Saker think he’ll change this time around?

Then, do the Russian people want to integrate with Belarus? Remember the excuse still occasionally put forward by Russians excusing the murder of the Soviet Union: “Russia cannot feed the other republics”. Later, those who wanted Chechnya to be allowed to secede said “Russia cannot feed the Caucasus”. Will those people agree to “feed” Belarus? What happens when Russians are asked if they want Belarus? It’s not like historically Russian Crimea.

I suggest that Putin demand an official military alliance with Belarus, no matter who is in power in either country, an alliance of at least fifty years. Since security is the only reason put forward by the Saker as a reason to annex Belarus, and since Belarus can’t be annexed without, let’s say, complications, that should do it.
- Biswapriya Purkayastha on August 11, 2020 · at 8:33 am EST/EDT
  
  That should be “Assad’s gas attacks”, not Saddam’s. Sorry about that.
- GoraKoshka on August 11, 2020 · at 10:03 am EST/EDT
  
  There is a Belorussian language – it sounds like a lot of Russian, mixed in with bits of Polish. I once asked a Belorussian what is the difference between B and Russia. His response was that the region was never invaded/occupied by the Mongols. They see themselves as somehow “purer” Russians (the belo – white – refers to the genes). (Not sure about either point and he and his daughter turned out to be two-faced backstabbers, fwiw).
  I do agree that integration would be problematic – even under the best of circumstances, much more today. Western powers would raise a major stink.
  After 2014, there would have been no doubt that a colour revolution is also planned for B, too. The Kremlin must have been aware. For all those who complain that VVP is not doing anything – hold your horses. Just because it is not publicly known, does not mean that things are not happening. (I hope!)
  Thanks, Saker, for the analysis, and yes, it is a major mess. (When L shook Pompous hand – did he realise he was shaking the hand of one, who will devour him?)
  - Tom Welsh on August 11, 2020 · at 12:54 pm EST/EDT
    
    “His response was that the region was never invaded/occupied by the Mongols. They see themselves as somehow “purer” Russians (the belo – white – refers to the genes)”.
    
    I really don’t buy any of that. “White” racism is far more recent than the name “Belarus” – by many centuries.
    
    Incidentally, I am reminded of Nazi propaganda that kept egging on the troops to defend “Western culture” against “the Asiatic hordes”.
    
    Nowadays I don’t think many people outside the USA would accept such blatant racism. In the USA, having been forced to give up their favourite anti-Black racism, they are now hugging themselves in pride and being twice as racist towards everyone except Blacks. In particular, Americans have a long and ghastly history of racism towards Asians. Here’s a very mild sample:
    
    https://dxczjjuegupb.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/These_evilChinese.jpg
    
    Ironic, really, since apparently IQ tests show that Eastern Asians at least are significantly more intelligent than Whites. (On average, as always).
Dr Livci on August 11, 2020 · at 8:18 am EST/EDT

After what happened in Ukraine it would be criminally negligent if Russian security services didn’t have plans to deal with this exact situation. And while I have no doubt that Globohomo intelligence agents have been courting Belorussian KGB agents that are for sale how in the world could FSB have not been aware of this? Russian FSB should also know exactly what’s happening in Belorussia or else they are utterly incompetent, I mean this is their whole job and after maiden they have no excuse for being blind sided in Belarus.

It seems like like the Anglo/Zio oligarchy is going all out right now to re-establish their dominance abroad which has taken a major beating lately, Lebanon, Belarus, and the pro Oligarchy riots in Hong Kong have also become more violent lately. I don’t think the Chinese and Hezbollah are going to blink but lately Putin has not seemed like the man he was 6 years ago much less 20 when he triumphed against even worse odds. I pray I’m wrong and he comes through again.
- Tom Welsh on August 11, 2020 · at 1:01 pm EST/EDT
  
  Chess players will know what I mean when I say that Mr Putin rather reminds me of Mikhail Moiseyevich Botvinnik.
  
  Many players of the White pieces thought they had Botvinnik on the ropes when he played (for example) the Winawer Variation of the French Defence, in which Black often seems passive while White goes on the rampage.
  
  But Botvinnik usually won. The art of counterattack is very sophisticated. You retreat, and you retreat, and you retreat – and then WHAM.
Dmitry on August 11, 2020 · at 9:12 am EST/EDT

‘There is no meaningful equivalent to the Banderites in Belarus.’
Wrong. They call themselves ‘Litvins’ (Lithuanians) and they trace their political ancestry to the Grand Duchy of Lithuania, which, they correctly acclaim, was always “pro-european” (compared to Muscovy) and mostly Russian (at least until the union with Poland). For example, its official language was Russian (now called by historians and linguists ‘Western Russian’ or ‘Old Belorussian’). And, no need to mention, the Grand Duchy was always rabidly anti-Moscow, and both states engaged in countless mutual wars.
- Anonymous on August 11, 2020 · at 11:18 am EST/EDT
  
  And the female opposition candidate has now gone into exile in….Lithuania!
Michael 0 on August 11, 2020 · at 9:15 am EST/EDT

As for the Ukraine crisis, there are two cases: either Russia is not so efficient in its defense as it wants to be believed, or Russia wants exactly what is happening. Since in Russia the pro-Western and pro-liberal globalist forces are relevant also within the government structure and that it’s pretty hard to believe that they didn’t notice anything, the second hypothesis is not sure but certainly much more likely.
In any case please Mr. Brezhnev, Gromyko, Mr. Marshal Grechko jump out and come back soon …
Michael on August 11, 2020 · at 9:37 am EST/EDT

My limited understanding of the history of “Byelorussia” is that it was known as “White Russia”, similar to the Ukraine being known as “Ruthenia” or “Little Russia”; and wasn’t the phrase “Tsar of all the Russias” used? Which appears to indicate some kind of distinction among them, as regions if not nations.

And just how much of what constitutes Belarus and the Ukraine is only there because of what was reallocated from Poland post-WWII? Poland got Silesia, Pomerania, and most of Prussia after kicking out the Germans; kind of a consolation prize for its eastern border being shifted westward by quite a bit.

All of this instability makes the Kaliningrad (old East Prussia) exclave even more valuable/isolated. I’m former USN, but I am aghast at NATO’s drang nach Osten. It is suicidal and pointless.
Pamela on August 11, 2020 · at 9:41 am EST/EDT

I’m somewhat confused as to who is supposedly at the base of this new “uprising”.

I read this: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/aug/10/belarus-alexander-lukashenko-presidential-elections?fbclid=IwAR1cwdqW2dOmef9QyP2_p6D42xtesbOI71Mt087kU1n1nXOkmj_DWR-kgFg written by a Minsk resident and student of Belorusia, but publishsed in the Guardian, a site of ill – repute if ever there was one.

Then I read Saker – and it seems that while there is much genuine discontent, I’m not sure how much Empire meddling is involved. Do we really have another Ukraine, with it’s Cookie Monster and clear CIA and Embassy direction on the Maiden?

Is US attempting to establish a beach head in a part of true Russia, again?

Are they going to keep pushing Russia, until they finally get what many of the Regime want – WWIII?

Or is this just another “Gilets Jaunes” moment?
- Tom Welsh on August 11, 2020 · at 12:57 pm EST/EDT
  
  “I’m not sure how much Empire meddling is involved”.
  
  There will be as much as they can possibly manage. Those people are a lot like viruses or army ants – or maybe fire. They don’t know anything about moderation or subtlety or mercy.
  
  They just keep hammering away everywhere until they make a hole. Then they keep hammering away to enlrage it.
  
  Rather like the Red Army at war, in fact.
Taras 77 on August 11, 2020 · at 10:48 am EST/EDT

I’m certainly not up to speed on developments in Belyrus but this article by babich seems to make some sense; certainly not as detailed as Saker’s but useful for me: (imo, seemed to take a less optimistic approach on ukie/pompass efforts on subversion of Russian interests, i.e. not as successful as pompie would have liked notwithstanding soros efforts)

https://www.rt.com/op-ed/497697-belarus-lukashenko-election-protests/
- unimperator on August 11, 2020 · at 11:36 am EST/EDT
  
  Lukashenko now states that the rioters in Belarus are controlled from UK, Poland and the Czech Republic. How does this fit into potential further developments? And what is the KGB going to do then? Belarus is developing into a real hot bed of conflicting forces.
  
  https://vz.ru/news/2020/8/10/1054184.html
Francis Lee on August 11, 2020 · at 11:27 am EST/EDT

So it’s come to this. The moment of truth. Belarus must not be allowed to join the Anglo-Zionist camp. Period. It is impossible to allow NATO to station its short-range missiles slap-bang in the middle of the Russian frontier. This would be a massive provocation; it would be like Russia being allowed to set up a nuclear base on Long Island. If Belarus wants to go its own way as an independent nation state – fine, may I wish it well. But as an American launch pad for a nuclear strike on Russia – totally and unequivocally unacceptable. This moment had to come and has to be faced. Otherwise the US authorities will summon Putin to Washington to sign Russia’s surrender documents.
Srbalj on August 11, 2020 · at 11:50 am EST/EDT

The reason why this destabilization operation has taken off in Belarus is entirely due to the fact that Lukashenko has been playing a double game all along, & he has done a classic Erdogan type manoeuvre, totally overestimated himself, whilst underestimating his opponents. In shot, Lukashenko has been cultivating Russophobic sentiment in Belarus for years, whilst exploiting Russia’s weakness & need to keep Belarus on side, by en large due to Belarus’ proximity to Kaliningrad. So, as the Saker says, the Kremlin/Putin were prepared to tolerate Lukashenko as long as he didn’t overstep the red line in his dealings with the West. Because the West deals in absolutes, & demands total obedience, they were not prepared to accept Lukashenko as he was – hence the “last dictator in Europe” nonsense – for that see Milo Djukanovic in Montenegro. But ever since the Maidan in Kiev, Russia’s return of Crimea, Russia’s stunning intervention in Syria, Lukashenko has been increasingly hostile towards Moscow – he quite openly is not at all comfortable with Russia’s newly found ascent in power on the world stage. He feels undermined by it, despite the fact, like a spoilt child, Russia has treated him exceptionally well, & he knows it – but again, as Saker says, he doesn’t care. He wants more, like Erdogan. So he has begun courting the West even more than usual – now here’s the rub, people who undertake security service/intel agency training will be familiar with the old counter subversion rule book – there are a list of things to look out for in any interaction with any person(s) because, the one carrying out the subversion can become the victim of subversion – basically, in work that involves interactions, you have to open yourself to risk, & then operational security depends on risk management & risk reduction technique. And here is where our lovely Lukashenko has been outplayed, he has opened himself up to the West, & they have run a multi-faceted subversion operation on him which he now will not be able to gain control of – that includes, once again in accord with the Saker, compromising the Belarus KGB. So Lukashenko could be in very serious trouble, the idiot played around with Ukie SBU which is CIA/MI6 controlled & thought he would come out on top.
ChrisGG on August 11, 2020 · at 11:55 am EST/EDT

Super Duper serious for Russia,

The Empire does not slacken the rope – but on the other hand: depending on the outcome of this crisis it can be said this will be the last crisis Russia has to manage on its own borders for the coming years – when the answer to it comes fast and firm and convincing.

The final battle, the final test for Russia before the Empire decides to go for (more) war. Or backtracks.

Sanctions should be of no concern for Russia anymore …. for example the new vaccine may be sold to India and China and other Asian nations – but NordStream2 is an issue ….. it will become hard for Russia to make the right decisions and reach her aims.

These are: economical growth and trade with Europe, military security at its western boarder.

The right solutions to these challenges will define Russias standing for the next decades – it is of utmost importance. Again.

We are living in interesting times …..

Regards

Chris
Oū Sī / 區司/ Usman on August 11, 2020 · at 12:13 pm EST/EDT

One of my mentors in linguistics here in Scandinavia was a major figure in the study of Kaukasus and Georigian related languages and proficient in Russian and Maltic idioms. He often stated that the lack of studying the sociopolitics of the White Russsian (Bielorus) language would lead to many a mis-understanding of politiical and social developpements in Eastern Europe. This he told us in the late 1980ies and repeated it much later on.
Marko on August 11, 2020 · at 12:15 pm EST/EDT

While it is somewhat on some level somehow understandable that the now puppet-states and pretty much by now failed states of Ukraine, Georgia, Serbia (the only one forced into NATO through savage bombing and genocide of its people), Armenia, Montenigeria, Bosnia Herzegovina, North Macedonia, Bulgaria, Romania, Poland, Baltic statelets… at some stage years ago sold their people and territory for shiny promise of prosperity on the easy backed by the printing presses of pornography and fiat currency – to want now have anything with the pedo-friendly West is downright moronic.

I say carve out what you can and leave the rest of cretins to their owns device. The revolution in military that happened with the advent of hypersonic weapons allowed for shorter buffer zones which all those countries in a nutshell are anyway.

The Hegemon is going to burn come November anyway regardless who wins. They will be busy with a civil war there. What is happening in Belorussia is inertia and Lukashenko’s utter stupidity (never liked the guy and his exploits stating with having an illegitimate son and being polygamous which is cute but also unchristian and not gentleman-like). He was asking for trouble.
Larchmonter445 on August 11, 2020 · at 12:18 pm EST/EDT

Ruslan Ishchenko’s take on Belarus, Maidan, Russia’s plan, and the dictator’s only path to stay alive:

https://ukraina.ru/opinion/20200811/1028508313.html

(Use Yandex Browser for translation or check Stalkerzone. Ollie usually translates Ishchenko’s articles, though I haven’t seen this yet over there.)

Basically, Russia is giving him backing, congratulating on the election, obvious special services Intel to blunt the Poles, Lithuanians, Estonians, NATO, UK and US actions.

Ishchenko warns that Luka will wind up very dead very soon if he doesn’t move to join the Union State, CSTO, and the EAEU.

He risks his death, probably his sons, and loss of all his wealth. He’s far out on the limb and the West is sawing with multiple blades.

Russia cannot merely rush in and save his ass. He has to save Belarus and in that process he will be saved.

Must read, because Ishchenko always is on the right track with his analytics.
- Larchmonter445 on August 11, 2020 · at 12:20 pm EST/EDT
  
  My error: Rostislav is his first name. Not Ruslan.
  - Serbian girl on August 11, 2020 · at 4:15 pm EST/EDT
    
    Thanks for the article Larchmonter!
    
    So what the author (Ischenko) is saying is: in order for Lukashenko to save himself, he must dismantle the European integrationists that Lukashenko installed within his state apparatus… Question is, does he still have the power of executing such a purge? How many people are we talking about? Time is short. It would be need to be done quickly…
- V on August 11, 2020 · at 7:26 pm EST/EDT
  
  If one reads what VVP stated to Lukashenko after the election results – it all ties in with your piece Larch445
  
  https://tass.com/politics/1187635
  
  “”I expect that your statesmanship will facilitate the further development of mutually beneficial Russian-Belarusian relations in all spheres, as well as the further enhancement of cooperation within the Union State, the strengthening of integration processes within the Eurasian Economic Union and the CIS and of military-political ties within the Collective Security Treaty Organization,” the telegram published by the Kremlin press service says…….”
pavlo on August 11, 2020 · at 12:23 pm EST/EDT

Criticizing is easy, but still, I think some comments about Lukashenko/Belarus are too harsh and lack context.

In particular equating with Yanukovich/Ukraine is too far reached.

Unlike Ukraine, and even unlike Russia, Belarus was able to resist to the economic, cultural and psychologic rape imposed by the West.
Belarus was able to keep a lot of the good things from the USSR, either mmaterial or immaterial (like the shared memorie and pride of the common history and glory), at a time when Russia was ruled men like Medved or even Eltsin.
For several years Belarus was more successful resisting than Russia, and that despite not having the same strenght (no nuclear deterrance, no sea access, no UN veto power, etc).

That must not be forgoten, and denying the belarusians their deserved pride for their achievements, and painting them as non existing entities only able to life as parasites of Russia is not only grossly unfair, but it is a political stupidity (which is the worst political crime of all). Do you believe that spiting and denigring the people of White Russia helps to achieve the much needed convergence and union of the people’s ?

Yes, for several years the position of Belarus was quite ambiguos; but remember that it remained and still remain firm on the most important principles (despite all the efforts of the West Belarus is not flirting with NATO, for example), and also that, until quite recently in terms of years, the future of Russia itself was not bright at all (Russia was much more under the West yoke than Belarus). It makes sense that Belarus (a landlocked country) didn’t put all its eggs on the russian basket.
Think about it for a while, what if the current russian president was Medved and Belarus had fully sided with Russia; do you think that a Russia leaded by Medved won’t have collaborated with NATO in the destruction of their neighbour ?
Have you forgotten what happened to Yugoslavia ?

Yes, the current world sitaution has changed, the situation in Russia has changed, and so Belarus tiself has to changed and realign itself.
There is a lot of inertia in politics, so it is no wonder that changes get some time to happen. However, thanks to the stupidity of the West, things will get faster now (because it is truly a big stupidity, for the West, to turn a rather neutral country into a clear opponent; because that were the only possible outcomes, either continued status-quo, or realignement closer to Russia; dreaming of an Ukrainia-like scenario is just a gross lack of knowledge.
Actually the real strong support Lukashenko has comes from the simple fact that the majority of the people there appreciates the stability he gives (and they had a lot of horrible counter exampels all around them to see what the “pro-West reforms” can lead to, economically, culturally, psychologically, and even wars…. should I be a belarussian citizen, I would of course vote for Lukashenko; I wouldn’t like the economic mayhem of the neighboring baltic states, nor the political and war chaos of neighboring Ukraine)

Belarus is NOT like Crimea.

Crimea was russian (not “small” nor “white” nor “new” Russia, just plain Russia), ruled for years by a hostile government that denied Crimea its autonomy, culture and pride. Then there was a coup made by nazi-lovers that dreamed to kill all of its inhabitants.

Belarus has, unlike Crimea, several reasons to keep distinct from Russia (one more voice at the UN, as someone recalled, is also a reason); and it is not ruled by a hostile ethos wanting to culturally erase it;
and if there is a coup attempt, it won’t succeed (and, also unlike Crimea, Belarus has the means to crush the coup attempt by itself).

There is no need for direct intervention, the local security forces are good enough, and the State has the resolve to do wat is needed.

I want a greater conjunction between Russia and Belarus to happen; and there are for sure a lot of things to criticize and change on the bilateral relations.
But that has to be handled in a respectful and brotherly way.
And now is not the moment.

Right now Belarus is under attack by forces of Evil; no matter what the wrongs or even sins of Lukashenko may be, there is a clear difference between the current president and plain Evil (it is not like “Biden vs Trump”, both are evil and we know the policies against the rest of the world will be more or less the same regardless of who will be the next SShA president).
So, the right position at the current moment in time regarding Belarus can only be of complete support for the legitimate government and State. Discrepancies should be kept for later, once the national traitors fully crushed.
- Grieved on August 11, 2020 · at 10:18 pm EST/EDT
  
  Thank you, pavlo – this is good wisdom. There is time to play with here, and room for changes.
  
  A new accommodation can be made between Russia and Belarus. And as you state, and as Saker points out, Belarus is fairly safe because its security force is strong.
  
  We have learned, from many examples in the world, that it is the security state that, in the end, must secure the state.
  
  And as the commentary at StalkerZone from Sergey Kolyasnikov concluded on August 10:
  
  “Yanukovych in 2014 betrayed “Berkut“. But Lukashenko did not betray his security forces in 2020. The difference is obvious.”
  - Fog of War on August 12, 2020 · at 11:37 am EST/EDT
    
    ” “Yanukovych in 2014 betrayed “Berkut“. But Lukashenko did not betray his security forces in 2020. The difference is obvious.” ”
    
    Wasnt he advised by Russia to take a non violent passive attitude to the maidan however ?
    - Grieved on August 12, 2020 · at 5:32 pm EST/EDT
      
      @Fog of War
      
      No. He told Putin he wanted out and Putin advised him to stay and deal with the situation. As we know, he fled.
      
      Watch the documentary, “Crimea: The Way Home” for the sequence of messaging.
      
      My impression is that Russia somewhat expected to be dealing with the Maidan through its various stages, until Yanukovych fled the scene, and that paralyzed Russian options to prevent what happened. This is just my surmise – I’ve never seen any commentary one way or the other on this point.
      
      The Russian analyst at StalkerZone is correct in the statement you quoted, and it’s worth saying again because it is the pivotal heart of the Belarus event, as subsequent analysis here and everywhere is showing:
      
      “Yanukovych in 2014 betrayed “Berkut“. But Lukashenko did not betray his security forces in 2020. The difference is obvious.”
- Alieu on August 14, 2020 · at 2:40 pm EST/EDT
  
  I think Pavlo is right and don’t agree with a lot of the points in this article. Lukashenko overall has done a good job running Belarus and if he is overthrown, will almost certainly be replaced by someone worse. It will be Ukraine Mark 2. My only criticism would be that he should retire after this term – having the same person in charge for so long makes it easier for the “West” aka Anglozionists to portray the government as a “dictatorship”. I’m still waiting for Angela Merkel or Benjamin Netanyahu to be called a “dictator”. Mind you, Yanukovych was only in charge for 4 years and they still called him a dictator anyway.
Oū Sī / 區司/ Usman on August 11, 2020 · at 12:38 pm EST/EDT

One of my mentors in linguistics here in Scandinavia was a major figure in the study of Kaukasus and Georgian and Kashwili related languages and proficient in Russian and Maltic idioms. He often stated that the lack of studying the sociopolitics of the White Russsian (Bielorus) language would lead to many a mis-understanding of politiical and social developpements in Eastern Europe. This he told us in the late 1980ies and repeated it much later on.
grrr on August 11, 2020 · at 12:49 pm EST/EDT

Yes, “Russia needs to act. Quickly and resolutely.” But will it? I do not see how without sharp elevation of tensions by giving Ukes a pretext (not reason, just a pretext) to double their efforts to dump their non-compliance with Minsk2 on Putin.
teranam13 on August 11, 2020 · at 1:38 pm EST/EDT

It does come a a touchy moment in history as everyone has been reviewing their 2014 Uki-Maidan game plan–dusting it off, tweaking it here and there. If the Belarus elite can be bought by one side, then why not by another? especially as they must know in the depths of their reptilian brain, since they slept through history class, that by siding with the West they have doomed themselves.

Times have changed and most telling, as the US stalls on signing ballistic missile renewals, it places more US troops in Poland. Next? I predict placement of nasty nukes there or nuke like weapons with a thumbing of the nose at Russia or they might try to slip them in unannounced during some diversionary event on the world stage.

Russia 2014 is not Russia 2020. Belarus is not Bulgaria
Edgar Palacio on August 11, 2020 · at 2:15 pm EST/EDT

Rusia necesita con urgencia un Kadyrov (Chechenia) en Bielorrusia y cuando lo encuentre tiene que cuidarlo para el bien de la humanidad.No puede ser que deje que los asesinen tal como sucedió con Aleksandr Zakharchenko en el Donbass ucraniano
—————–
Google-translate from the mod.
“Russia urgently needs a Kadyrov (Chechnya) in Belarus and when it finds him it has to take care of him for the good of humanity, it cannot be that it will let them kill them as happened with Aleksandr Zakharchenko in the Ukrainian Donbass”
demodok on August 11, 2020 · at 2:21 pm EST/EDT

I think Russia will not act neither quickly nor resolutely. But Russia , will stay firm on the Strategy of defense in this aggressive hybrid war of USA and West . Strategy is : “Invincibility is matter of defense – vulnerability is a matter of attack “ Sun Tzu And Russia is becoming immune to “Ukrainian infection “. As time goes on Ukrainian (and other traitors) infection as boomerang is coming back to USA an West.
luka on August 11, 2020 · at 3:49 pm EST/EDT

Putin has a plan. When the enemy enters Moscow he will retreat behind Urals and wait for the Russian winter to defeat the invaders. It worked before.
- Larchmonter445 on August 11, 2020 · at 5:15 pm EST/EDT
  
  @luka (avatar for a cyber bot trolling the Vineyard)
  
  1. 08-08-08
  
  2. Crimea 2014
  
  3. Syria 2015
  
  Didn’t retreat in Georgia, Krim or Syria.
  
  You are so full of shi*t, little boy. If this is all you got, go away. The blog is a mountain you cannot climb.
Laurent on August 11, 2020 · at 5:01 pm EST/EDT

I am surprised by the fact that the empire is still able to try in minsk what it did in Kiev in 2014. I read many (many!) articles saying the empire was in decline. Well after 6 years of so called decline the empire is keeping its ability to create chaos everywhere in the world.
Are we sure the empire is weakening and declining as fast as we think?
- Corto on August 11, 2020 · at 6:20 pm EST/EDT
  
  They still have a lot of dollars. With money you can by some people …
- Serbian girl on August 11, 2020 · at 6:21 pm EST/EDT
  
  They are in decline Laurent, but unfortunately Belarus seems to have been low-hanging fruit..
  
  Saker is right about Jeffrey Giauque being bad news (although I don’t know which successful previous missions he is referring to. Maybe he could share more info.)
  
  Giauque was part of the US Embassy apparatus in both Serbia and Croatia. He is linked to a NGO group in Utah (Giauque is a native from that state) that calls itself “Utah Council for Citizen Diplomacy”.
  
  https://www.deseret.com/2003/10/10/19789293/utah-native-helps-croatians-as-diplomat-in-zagreb
  
  Utahdiplomacy.org
  Twitter: @utahdipmomacy
  
  Most of the diplomatic staff at the Croatian Embassy in the US are involved with this group either through its “scholarship programs”, Mormon Church of Latter Day Saints (LDS) or BYU university which is owned by the Church..
  
  Kresimir Cosic, (basketball star who was the founding diplomat of the Croatian Embassy in US), Pjer Simunovic (current ambassador), Kolinda Grabar-Kitarovic.(previous ambassador), just to name a few. Kolinda eventually became President of Croatia.
  
  If Saker is right about Belarus’ KGB being a infiltrated, with the arrival of Giauque, I would be screening the KGB management for any links to Utah NGO, Mormon Church of LDS, and BYU. The usual suspects will scream about religious persecution just like they did when Russia banned Jehovah’s Witness, but the problem is that these religious groups are used as cover for subversive political groups.
- demodok on August 11, 2020 · at 6:35 pm EST/EDT
  
  To create the chaos you don’t need to be very powerful. Probably just the opposite :
  creating chaos is sign of weakness, not of a strength .
- Tom Welsh on August 12, 2020 · at 5:49 am EST/EDT
  
  “I am surprised by the fact that the empire is still able to try in minsk what it did in Kiev in 2014”.
  
  As I said before, they don’t stop any more than a virus does. In due course, though, the immune system adapts and can throw off the virus more easily.
  
  In a society where money is the only value, goal, purpose or merit, how can the rich and powerful stop themselves from seeking more money and power?
  
  It’s not as if they had any other interests.
John4Truth on August 11, 2020 · at 5:31 pm EST/EDT

I would say that according to international law, which is defined as treaties between nations, Belarus can never join NATO. Neither can Ukraine. Because both signed the Alma Ata Protocol for CIS that created their independence status in the first place. If not they would be part of Russia today.;
It is also clear that the Belovezha accords did not create the CIS. Belarus, Ukraine and Russia agreed to create CIS and dissolve the Soviet Union by the Belovezha accords. So for international law to take place Alma Ata Protocol is the treaty doing so. Those states that thus gained independence agreed on the protocol, and that protocol makes it clear that they cannot ever claim anything but a neutral military status should they even want to become such a neutral country. Accordingly NATO is out of the question according to their founding document, the international law regarding their independence. Otherwise they were part to be part of Russia today.
- John4Truth on August 12, 2020 · at 5:29 am EST/EDT
  
  On thing that were accepted by the Soviet Union (pres. Gorbachev, Supreme Soviet) prior to the Alma Ata Protocol, the actual creation and treaty of CIS, was the dissolution of the Soviet Union Treaty, the treaty that created the Soviet Union. This is important since Ukraine later politically claim not to be part of CIS. So there is the alternative, either a small Ukraine without Novorussia, a Ukraine was briefly established during the Bolshevik wars, never generally recognized but by UK and USA the conspirators behind the Bolshevik revolution by the Rothschild syndicate that practically ran those two countries. The other real alternative that correspontds to international law of the time, Malorussia is part of Russia as recognized by all countries.
Corto on August 11, 2020 · at 7:24 pm EST/EDT

I’m very sad to see this quarels between Bealrus and Russia.

As of president Lukashenko, as a Serb, I can never forget his courage during our war with NATO. He flew to Belgrade in the middle of the NATO bombing campaign, to show his solidarity with Serbs and trying to help. I admire him for that.

Also for his refusal of neoliberal shock-therapies during the 90’s and his condemnation of NATO destruction of Yugoslavia, Iraq, Lybia, Syria …

I hope Belarus will get to it’s sence and eventualy unite with Russia.

I wish them all well.
- Петар on August 11, 2020 · at 9:16 pm EST/EDT
  
  @ Corto
  
  Thank you for the reminder!
  
  It is more than likely that any Lukashenko’s insinuated shortcomings are in entirety the propaganda work of the western scavengers.
  
  Moreover, when it comes to some recent difficulties in negotiating the integration of Belorussia and Russia, the problem is by no means Lukashenko’s position, but the crude financial interests (greed) of Russian oligarchs (which Putin is obliged to represent and defend by virtue of his post, based on the internal power structure).
Anonymous on August 11, 2020 · at 9:01 pm EST/EDT

A Military coup would seem to fit the bill. Military take over supported by loyal security service personnel, create stability and allow a referendum on rejoining Russia after some period of a military approved govt. Much better than allowing the filthy Yanquees any further inside. Putin can’t afford to drop the ball on this. Having NATO in Belarus is just unacceptable in any way. It’s hardball time.
Anonymous on August 12, 2020 · at 1:09 am EST/EDT

So the same American Evil Empire that incessantly cries like a little bitch about Russia or other nations allegedly trying to “influence US democracy” is now trying to overthrow the government of yet another nation–this time, Belarus.

And it would be crying shame if Mr. Jeffrey Giauque met the same fate as another American CIA cretin, Michael D’Andrea, who has suddenly gone “incommunicado” after America murdered revered Iranian general Qassem Soleimani earlier this year.

America will learn the hard way that if you live by the drone strike, you die by the drone strike. If you live by the assassination, you die by the assassination. And if you live by the regime change, you deserve to die by the regime change.
- Tom Welsh on August 12, 2020 · at 5:50 am EST/EDT
  
  The difficulty with imagining regime change in Washington is that any conceivable change would be for the better.
Distiller on August 12, 2020 · at 8:40 am EST/EDT

A Russian offer for Lukashenko and his family, untouchable status and enough money until the end of their days. But it will not work w/o some convincing arguments of some pro-Russian KGB and Army parts. All hush-hush and fast. Next a new pro-Russian strongman (maybe some General) and a rapid Russian occupation of Belorus. All has to be done FAST. Forget about referendums or some other phantasies. Would only give the Empire time to scheme and create chaos.

Actually this is something that should already be in motion now. Every single day lost is dangerous and brings the situation closer to open war. Because one thing is sure: There is no way in hell Russia can allow Belorus to become part of the Empire.

But another thing I also say: If war then Russia should not only go to Belorus but also Ukraine. If war is necessary then the relations between Russia and the Empire will be so kaputt that it retaking Ukraine wouldnt cause any additional damage.
ChrisGG on August 12, 2020 · at 10:50 am EST/EDT

BTW ….. we are talking here not at least about asymmetrical warfare, isn‘t it?

That said Russia currently faces a HUGE success on the international theatre – Sputnik V will -hopefully- become a hefty thorn in the side of the Empire that relies in parts on its pharmaceutical Industrie ….. if you want to call it that way. I would have different names for this kind of industry as well.

Russia expects to have a share of 25% of the international CoVid19 vaccine market. That is something around 20bn Dollar value.

– Money the empire does not raise
– Money Russia urgently needs
– Excellent success in terms of international reputation
– Excellent news for all the third world states around – the empire loses the possibility to exploit their weakness, Russia gets the chance to improve and deepen the relations.

Putins daughter volunteering (at least I hope so) for a 2nd phase trial – my full and warm respect. That is leadership – supported even from within his family.

That is the way to win the hearts of mankind. And the heads as well….

That may be true even for Belarus ;-)

Kind Regards

Chris
JJ on August 12, 2020 · at 11:45 am EST/EDT

Extract

https://sputniknews.com/world/202008121080143946-us-stirs-sharp-divisions-between-old-and-new-europe-in-cynical-strategy/

“Washington believes Beijing and Moscow are expanding political, military and commercial influence in this region. It is taking advantage of the asymmetrical interdependence between the US and Central and Eastern European countries to force the latter to compete with countries that have challenged Washington’s interests.

In other words, if countries want to get help or guarantees from the US, they must bear a corresponding price. Behind this lies the logic of American hegemonism and unilateralism. Nevertheless, some Central and Eastern European countries welcome US strategic adjustments because they provide a strategic option for them.

The US aims to weaken Europe’s strategic autonomy. Washington has become the most uncertain factor that is challenging European integration as the continent struggles to maintain solidarity and political consensus. A new regional formation of public good supply is very likely to be formed in Europe. Although EU leaders are appealing for strategic autonomy, the bloc’s member states actually have different stances in this regard.

Central and Eastern European countries are becoming the main leverage of the US to balance the leadership of France and Germany.

As Washington increases its influence in Central and Eastern Europe, differences between new Europe and old Europe are widening. Such fragmentation will weaken Europe’s execution capability….”
JJ on August 12, 2020 · at 12:28 pm EST/EDT

Extraccs from TASS

“Belarusian opposition candidate Svetlana Tikhanovskaya left the country for Lithuania on Tuesday. Meanwhile, mass protests in the cities of Belarus are not letting down, as many enterprises in the country received information about possible strikes.

According to Kommersant, the Belarusian opposition is de facto starting to create a government in exile, and could also seek a repetition of the Venezuelan scenario at home – that is, recognizing Svetlana Tikhanovskaya by the world community as the legitimate president of Belarus. Belarusian politician Valery Tsepkalo, who had previously unsuccessfully tried to register in the elections as a candidate, told Kommersant that Tikhanovskaya could even lead the process from Lithuania.”

Plus Latvia Lithuania and Poland offer a plan to Belarus ie release detainees start civil dialogue no police brutality…etc etc..after a democratic election…..! EU Foreign Ministers to meet…..

….maybe that might push Belarus more to Russia?
dave on August 12, 2020 · at 3:35 pm EST/EDT

Question to Saker: I have read somewhere russophobe “Ukrainian” Yulia Tymoshenko having Belorussian roots. If true doesn’t that mean there could be a “western” Belorus within Belorus like there is a “western” Ukraine (Galicia) in Ukraine?
- The Saker on August 12, 2020 · at 3:40 pm EST/EDT
  
  I heard all sorts of stuff about her. Depending on whom you ask, she has Russian, Jewish, Armenian and Belarusian roots. But, really, her real nationality is her ideology, not her blood.
  As for western Belarus, yes, sure, having Poland right next door means that there will always be problems. The Pole’s hated for all things Russian is almost religious in its fervor and, of course, they will try to create a Belarusian Galicia in Western Belarus. But this will never work unless Lukashenko is overthrown and replaced by some Belarusian Turchinov or something equally toxic.
  Again, the solution is a quick return to Russia.
  Cheers
  The Saker
basileus on August 13, 2020 · at 2:02 am EST/EDT

All this Belarus Maidan is a pure and simple blackmail : It claims that with 7% of the votes, we, the pro-western catholic minority we have to be impowered. Same situation as in Ukraine, were greco-catholic Galicians occupied the center of Kiev and decided on the Streets who will be me masters of the country.
Simbolically, the archibishop of Belarus, declared the 4th of august that people must be ready for a “tempest that will bring peace”. It was precisely at this date that Croatia launched his operation “Tempest” 25 years ago to clean Krajina region of its orthodox serbs.
It is less a political confrontation, than a religious one.
Alina on August 13, 2020 · at 3:58 am EST/EDT

HOW LATVIANS, ESTONIANS, AND LITHUANIANS APPEARED
August 18, 2018

Now, the Baltic states consist of three countries – Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia, which received sovereignty in the course of the disintegration of the Soviet Union. Each of these states position themselves, respectively, as the national states of Latvians, Lithuanians, and Estonians. Nationalism in the Baltic countries was raised to the level of a state policy, which explains the numerous examples of the discrimination of the Russian and Russian-speaking population. Meanwhile, if to figure this out, it becomes clear that the Baltic countries are typical “replica states” with the absence of their own political history and tradition. Of course not, the states in the Baltic region existed before, but it’s not at all Latvians or Estonians that created them.

What did the Baltic region represent before its lands were included in the structure of the Russian Empire? Before the 13th century, when the German knights/crusaders started conquering the Baltic region, it was a complete and utter “zone of tribes”. Here lived the Baltic and Finno-Ugric tribes, which didn’t have their own statehood and professed paganism. Thus, modern Latvians as a people appeared as a result of a merger of the Baltic region (Latgalians, Semigallians, Selonians, Curonians) and Finno-Ugric (Livonians) tribes. At the same time it should be taken into account that Baltic tribes themselves weren’t the indigenous people of the Baltic region – they migrated from the South and pushed aside the local Finno-Ugric population to the north of modern Latvia. It is especially the absence of their own statehood that became one of the main reasons for the conquest of the Baltic and the Finno-Ugric people of the Baltic region by more powerful neighbors……..

The main part of the population of Baltic cities up to the 19th century consisted of ethnic Germans, and also Poles and Jews, but not at all Baltic people. In fact, the “old” (pre-revolutionary) Baltic region was completely built by Germans. Baltic cities were German cities – with German architecture, culture, and system of municipal management. In knighthood states, in the Duchy of Courland, and in the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth the Baltic people would never become equal with title Germans, Poles or Litvins. For the German nobility dominating in the Baltic region, Latvians and Estonians were people of the second grade, almost “barbarians”, there couldn’t even be talk of equal rights. The nobility and merchants of the Duchy of Courland completely consisted of East Sea Germans. The German minority for centuries dominated Latvian peasants making up the main part of the population of the duchy. Latvian peasants were enslaved and in terms of their social status they were equated to ancient Roman slaves by the Courland statute.

Freedom came to Latvian peasants almost half a century earlier than to Russian serfs – the decree on the cancellation of serfdom in Courland was signed by the emperor Alexander I in 1817. On August 30th in Mitava the release of peasants was solemnly declared. Two years later, in 1819, Livonia’s peasants were also released. Thus Latvians received long-awaited freedom, with which the gradual formation of a class of free Latvian farmers started. If it wasn’t for the will of the Russian emperor, who knows how many more decades Latvians would’ve remained in the condition of being the serfs of German sirs. The incredible mercy shown by Alexander I in relation to the peasants of Courland and Livonia had an enormous impact on the further economic development of these lands. By the way, it’s not a coincidence that Latgale turned into the most economically backward part of Latvia – liberation from serfdom came to Latgale peasants much later, and this circumstance affected the development of agriculture, trade, and crafts in the region.
Tom Payne on August 14, 2020 · at 10:33 am EST/EDT

“In the middle of the night, a KGB swat team moved in with flash-bang grenades and guns drawn and brutally arrested everybody in spite of the fact that none of the sleepy Russians offered any kind of resistance. No weapons of any kind were found, no evidence of any covert plans either, but the authorities declared that since these men were not drinking or harassing waitresses and since they kept to themselves, this was a clear proof that they were on a secret mission (I am not joking!).”

In other words, a standard, American-style, police action. (I am not joking!)
Look up the case of Beonna Taylor in Louisville, KY, USA. The American KGB-style police executed a ‘no-knock warrant’ in the middle of the night and broke into a house with guns drawn with the intent of brutally arresting everybody in sight. Someone in the house, drew a gun in response to this unannounced home-invasion, and then the police killed Beonna Taylor, who was sleeping between shifts working as a paramedic trying to save lives and thus normally a “heroic first responder” in American nomenclature.

Also, in recent American history, you will find a long list of very similar raids on the real political opposition. These usually occur just before major events like the major political conventions or a big protest march weekend. A place where the real political opposition is gathering is raided in the same violent, KGB-style, night-time raid, with the prosecutors and police talking about the violent criminals who were plotting violence before the coming event. Except, the Americans are more competent at finding ‘weapons’, in that they declare the common household cleaning products found in most homes are now suddenly components for chemical weapons and explosives. OMG, those terrorists had Bleach!!!!! And they even bought Generic and not Branded!!!!! That proves they are anti-American terrorists! And they had a Tourist map showing all the key spots in town! Check the dates of the big political conventions of this century, and the big anti-war and anti-globilization protests of this century, and you will likely find the above story just before the event.
Vinager Joe on August 14, 2020 · at 11:04 am EST/EDT

Fascinating.

I’ve just been reading Barbara Tuchman’s “Stillwell and the American Experience in China”. An interesting case study of a rising superpower (America in WW2) trying to deal with a completely corrupt and incompetent client state in Chiang Kai-Shek and the Kuomintang government that was supposedly fighting the Japanese.

Its a very risky and dangerous position. In WW2, FDR was dreaming of a post-war world where a Chinese democracy, as promoted by the American missionaries in China, would be a world power in Asia. He got caught in the trap of supporting Chiang Kai-Shek, with the end result being Mao-Tse-Tung and the Chinese Communist Party controlling China instead.
Aheinousanus on August 14, 2020 · at 11:06 pm EST/EDT

“Ukraine” not “the Ukraine”.
Well most of current day Belarus was part of the Polish -Lithuanian Commonwealth until that nation got partitioned by Russia, Austria-Hungary and Germany (I will not call the Prussia because they are not the real ethnic Prussians).
Before then that territory was under Lithuania.
Interesting trivia – at the turn of 20th century when Belarusian nationalism started in earnest the underground resistance was using the Latin alphabet for their publications because of their hatred of Russia and the czar.
Czarist Russia had a policy of Russofying those whom they conquered and punishment for holding secret meetings or schools was punished with a relocation to Siberia.
Current Belarusian language was “reconstructed” from language spoken in the most western villages as it was reasoned, that unlike the cities, the villages did not experience Russification.
Flash on August 17, 2020 · at 12:01 am EST/EDT

The only thing that is of concern is Kaliningrad.
It can be easily protected from Belarus territory. But it can be protected from the Sea and Air as well.
Now, if Belarus sides with the west, Russia will be richer. There will be no need to sell Nat Gaz for cheap.
The whole country will face a huge economic crisis.