I have to admit that today’s move by Putin caught me completely off-guard. My first impression was that by asking the folks in the Donbass to postpone the referendum, Putin was basically tossing aside a valuable bargaining chip. Even more disturbing was his apparent backing for the upcoming May 25th presidential election.
Let me also say, however, that the notion of Putin “caving in” never even crossed my mind if only because categories such as “caving in” are simply not applicable in the real world of international politics – they are only good for the taking heads on the Idiot Tube and their zombified audience.
But if Putin was not “caving in” – what in the world was he doing? I submit that what Putin did is give us his reply to yesterday’s quiz. Remember what I wrote?
Let us assume that Russia does not intervene and that, with time and effort, the nationalists regain control of most of the eastern and southern Ukraine. Let is further assume that the referendum wanted by the Russian-speakers is either not held or ignored, while the Presidential election goes ahead and that Poroshenko or Tymoshenko get’s “kind of elected” in a farcical election which, however, the USA and its EU protectorate will immediately recognize as “legitimate”.
This is *exactly* the option chosen by Putin today. To see why, we have to look at this not from Moscow’s perspective, but from Kiev’s perspective. From the point of view of the junta this outcome looks something like this:
“So we have managed to get most of the East and South more or less under control. We have stopped the “terrorist’s” referendum and we got our leader Oligarchenko elected President in an election fully backed the US and Europe. What do we do next?”
This is when things get really interesting for a number of reasons. For one thing, the economy is completely dead and nobody, really nobody, has any idea as to what to do about it. Second the degree of hatred between the western Banderastan and the eastern Donbass is at an all-time high and nobody has any idea as to how to make all these people coexist together. Third, and there are a lot of signs in Kiev and elsewhere that this is already beginning to happen, social unrest triggered by the economic collapse is going to go from bad to worse with each passing week. Fourth, now that the neo-Nazi thugs do not have a “patriotic” job to do anymore – what kind of “activities” will keep them busy next?
There is a well-known experiment in psychology: you put two rats into a cage and you start giving them electrical shocks (though a grid in the cage floor). You know what they do? They immediately attack each other. Pain makes them do that – they strike out at the only enemy they see.
So just imagine the utter chaos which will take place this summer all over the Ukraine.
Now add to that the fact that the Ukraine will desperately need Russian energy for which it is both unable and unwilling to pay.
To me, this picture does not look only bleak, it look apocalyptic.
Now consider the very same picture from the US and EU’s point of view.
First, it is pretty darn obvious that they, the US & EU, “own” the Ukraine (not Russia). They overthrew Yanukovich, they backed the neo-Nazis, they promised wealth and freedom to the Ukrainians if they sign the agreement with the EU and they put their full political weight behind President Oligarchenko and his government. Frankly, their best hope was to blame any and all problems on Russia, its “agents” in the Donbass and Moscow’s support for the “terrorists”. But now that this pretext is gone – whom shall they blame next?
Maybe each other?
I can already hear the outraged comments about how all this is just a cynical rationalization for the fact that “Russia has betrayed the Russian-speakers in the southeast”. So let’s talk about them.
I don’t know about you – but I am personally unimpressed to say the least about the numbers of men who turned up to fight against the junta. Yes, some did and they are fighting hard but, again, this is not South Ossetia by a long shot. I did see small groups of determined men fighting back, but I did not see large hordes of infuriated miners organizing a mass demonstration or, even less so, attacking the junta’s forces. Did you?
So where the hell is everybody? Sitting at home and waiting for the outcome?
Furthermore, and several commentators have pointed this out, it is rather dubious that the resistance leaders have the organizational skills to simultaneously fight the junta and organize a referendum.
Add to this a very real possibility that a non-trivial part of the population is rather lukewarm, undecided or otherwise wishy washy about staying in the Ukraine or not – and you have all the ingredients of an embarrassing PR disaster.
My personal (and highly subjective) feeling is that most folks in the Donbass would prefer to live without a neo-Nazi regime and get their pay in Rubles. But they also want some “Polite Armed Men in Green” to make that happen for them. And that is something Putin has no reason at all to agree to.
When I though about submitting a quiz to you yesterday I had already firmly decided for myself that non-intervention was a much better option for both Russia and the Donbass. But when this evening I heard Putin I was totally caught off-guard and disturbed. It appeared to me that he was giving up important things for nothing and my instinctive knee-jerk reaction was, as always, to suspect the worst. But now that I had time to really think it over, what Putin is doing makes sense. Not only is he choosing the “no intervention” option (which I had expected him to do) – he is pro-actively contributing to that outcome (which I did not expect him to do at all). I had expected Russia to look “firm and stern” and not to yield on anything in order to maximize the uncertainty and anxiety of the US, EU and the freaks in power in Kiev. Also, I had not expected Putin to give the western propaganda machine such an fantastic opportunity to gloat, declare Russia a “paper tiger” and declare victory for Obama. But now that I think about that I find that a very sneaky move: let them gloat today – it will just make their inevitable fall tomorrow even much more painful to cope with.
In chess, this is called a “gambit”. You accept the loss of a piece to win a positional advantage. Except that in chess your opponent has the option to decline the gambit whereas in this case the Empire has to accept it.
I should have known better since Putin had already done exactly that when the USA was about to attack Syria: he “gave up” the entire Syrian chemical weapons arsenal in exchange for a disruption in the AngloZionist Empire’s momentum towards an attack on Syria. At the time his gambit was also greeted by a chorus of “the Russians caved in! they betrayed Assad!” and yet eight months later nobody can deny that Syria is winning the war.
I will tell you honestly that I hate gambits. In chess and in life. And when offered a gambit in chess I usually decline it. To me this is a profoundly counter-intuitive move.
I suspect that Putin must be a much better chess player then I am.
The Saker
I would point out two other things which you yourself brought to our attention on your blog. 1.) Putin said that Russia had somehow gauged the support for Crimea rejoining Russia before they made their move. In other words, they knew that people would vote yes. I think you might have even wondered if the Russians were doing the same thing right now in the Southeast. Maybe here’s our answer. 2.) You said a little while ago that Russia had no need to hurry, that unless there were really catastrophic losses in the southeast, Russia was better off waiting and letting the regime fall apart. I think in light of that piece of advice we should keep the current losses in perspective, at least compared to what is possible with military escalation.
Basically, I am surprised that you were surprised by Putin’s move at first. It seems to me that he is doing exactly what you had predicted! The other side is trying desperately to provoke a military response. As much as it might feel satisfying to contemplate one from over here, it would be a trap of one kind or another. What Putin has done is the one and only thing that the junta and their backers do not want. Congratulations are in order.
Well, the question is, if Oleg Tsarev has asked for too much in his reply to Putins ‘gambit’:
http://rusvesna.su/news/1399483335
– Military retreat
– Release of political prisoners
– Break-up of illegal Groups
2 days time for fulfillment
I agree with that. And this pulls even deeper the wedge between US and EU.
FMG
Yeah, but when the Banderas smash Sloviansk on victory day tomorrow(they have enough to do so from what the rebels are saying) it will be such a dickslap in the face for Russia that unless they react, there will be a HUGE shot in the arm for the various Islamic movements in Russia.
Plus Syria is not winning, yes they’ve made good progress in some areas, but lost in others and the US is finally bold enough to start pumping in advanced weapon systems.
I largely agree with this, except the enmity between the alleged sides is not total, and that allows for diplomatic creativity, which war takes away.
There are segments within the West (EU & US) that are innately hostile to Putin: Jews, homosexuals and other Cultural Marxists, unipolarist “New World Order” types.
There are factions that are neutral, and who would not mind Russia finding a reasonable position in the world order: these would be the realists, certain business interests, and the average apolitical person.
And then there are the pro-Putin folks: paleo-conservatives, segments of the German and Italian power structure and various other Europeans that want to rebalance the EU-US relationship and chart a more independent course for Europe, and anti-“New World Order” types.
I would place Obama and certain key members of his inner circle in the neutral category (Hagel, Dempsey); Biden and Kerry are questionable but that is likely by design as Biden is Irish Catholic and not an innate war monger, while Kerry is a Brahmin at heart, despite his partial Jewish heritage, and like Hagel, has a personal experience with war that lives near the center of their beings.
These realists have no problem with building a stable and rational world order that departs sharply from the neocon “New World Order”, and were probably caught off guard by the Deep State antics of Victoria Nuland et al.
Putin owes the Russian people a chance at a decent life which will not be found in direct conflict with the West, but in building bridges to the West and catching up economically and militarily.
The people of Donbas will break away from Kiev; the only question is timing and the sequence of events. The people of the region, especially the young, have a chance to build the future; why should they embrace the divisions imposed by outsiders? Even an independent Donbas will want good relations with the people of the Ukraine and vice versa; this is where Putin needs to deploy his cultural warriors to heal the divisions and to paint a clear vision of mutual prosperity. This is something he has not done enough of, if one were to criticize.
metatron: Assad is winning hands down; note also the Iraqi government getting tough with their mutual enemy, and the sacking of Bandar, the Saudi architect of the civil war in Iraq and Syria.
Greetings from Singapore:
A move to bring Germany on board.
(Giving them a mission-impossible)
Letting Ukraine self-destruct.
(Time works for Russia here)
Makes sense.
I repeat:
There is no ‘endorsement’ of the May 25th election.
From Putin’s website:
We must do everything possible to ensure that people in southeast Ukraine understand, feel and believe that after the Ukrainian presidential election on May 24 or 25 their lawful rights will be reliably guaranteed.
Please read it again if you have to.
By definition, east Ukrainians can’t have their lawful rights reliably guaranteed if they can’t vote and they have no candidate. Putin is heading into negotiations with the EU in the strongest possible position to reject the validity of the May 25th election. He is holding out the possibility that a legitimate process can be negotiated for a free and fair election. By asking for referendums in the Donbas to be stopped he is further strengthening his position concerning the need for any election to be legitimate.
I would not call this a gambit. Nothing has changed militarily in the last 24 hours. Anti-fascist forces still need as much time as possible to further mobilize while the Ukrainian forces in the east will now pay a much higher price for aggressive actions.
If there is one message east Ukrainians need to take it is that they need to get their arses in gear because Russia will not ride to their rescue. Putin will not let the Ziocon controlled Ukrainian military drive his actions. In fact he has completely isolated them ahead of direct negotiations with the EU.
The more I think about today’s moves by Putin the more I am impressed. He is in the drivers seat like never before.
Take a harder look. Putin, in one brief attacking move, having stated almost nothing except the existing position, has seized the Odessa moment at the height of US/EU weakness, taking account of the Donbass reality on the ground and is attempting to save Novorossiya ‘without firing a shot’ while simultaneously repelling the fascists and allowing Obama and Merkel to save face.
Covert military intelligence support will continue and humanitarian aid may be announced on Friday.
The latest illegal coup (in Kiev) was planned, paid for by neo-con leaders in USA and NATO and executed by proxy neo-nazis. In response Putin let Crimea and its overwhelmingly pro-Russian population fall into his waiting and welcoming arms thanks to the coup. Pretty simple and straightforward. Does anyone think Russia was unaware of the western intentions over the past decade or so?
Recently, most commentators on this and other blogs have written about whether Putin would invade or not. Damned if he would and damned if he wouldn’t. Many felt Putin was in a trap set by the west. I think he was and is in the driver’s seat.
What really matters is the will of the Ukrainian people themselves. Those in the Crimea expressed their will quickly and unequivocally. Those in the western anti-Russian sections have expressed (by their silence) their agreement to the continued rape of their country. Those in the southern and eastern regions are generally (but not necessarily overwhelmingly) supportive of Russia, but why should Putin go out of his way to incorporate them with Russia. Although the region has a large industrial capacity (run down by years of oligarch robbery), Russia does not need the bother. Let the new bosses try and sort out the mess that they have inherited (in the name of freedom). When the people finally realise how they are being merely used by the neo-cons as pawns in their eternal battle and hatred of Russia, they will determine their own fate.
That’s when Putin will be waiting patiently and the defeat of the west will be obvious to all
.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1n3f8NeUm-k
@afterthought:
The Donbass breaking away? Doubt it. There is still room for a solution à la Libanon, if East and West succeed to find some kind of agreement to share powers. E.g. one side providing the president, the other the prime minister.
or:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VYiNZXVKENY
Who is Putin facing in this conflict? Obama and Kerry are profoundly cynical front men for a faction that has little support in the U.S. – AIPAC and interventionist Republicans. Neither is too bright and both are without any moral compass at this point. The revolting nature of the Ukraine government is a reflection of the decrepit ruling faction. Putin needs all the room he can get to outmaneuver with these folks. He just has to wait until they totally screw up or get bored.
Here’s some original reporting from the Ukraine, latest in a series of fine reports.
Odessa– the First Pogrom– The Obama Genocide By George Eliason
OpEdNews Op Eds 5/7/2014 at 11:23:51
http://www.opednews.com/articles/Odessa–the-First-Pogrom-by-George-Eliason-Activism-Anti-War_Civil-Disobedience_Class-War_Obama-Warmonger-140507-595.html
The photos and video speak for themselves. The massacre in Odessa, Ukraine was a pre-planned attack.
Before people were herded into the Trade Union House, Pravy Sektor was already setting up in the building for what can only be described as a crime against humanity.
[btw, the captcha is nearly impossible to read or hear]
Dear Saker,
great analysis!
It looks like that in Germany somebody smells the rat, they are not amused. Headlines 3 hours after Putin’s announcement:
DIE ZEIT (rabidly neo-con): “Putins versöhnlicher Ton ist Kalkül“
however
FAZ (not so much, conservative): “Ukraine-Konflikt Putin geht auf den Westen zu”
and 4 hours later:
Der Spiegel: Präsident Putin hat die Separatisten in der Ostukraine aufgerufen, ihr Referendum zu verschieben. Den USA reicht das nicht: Sie fordern, dass die Milizen ganz auf die Abstimmung verzichten. Den Truppenabzug der Russen bestätigt Washington nicht.
Greetings
Angelika
This has nothing to do with Ukraine but the undermining of Russian power and influence.
Ukraine can go to hell as far as NATO and the US are concerned.Also its a matter of principal. Russia should feel ashamed if it let’s these mobsters set up military bases unchallenged on their border.
What’s Putin going to do after the election if the winner invites the US to put military base(s) there?
Obama is itching, so Putin’s gambit seems not to be so bad after all.
Obama’s regime says two things:
1. U.S. Administration has “no evidence” of a pullback of Russian troops from the Russian-Ukrainian border
2. Washington’s demands that the referendum scheduled for May 11, should be called off altogether and not put off to a later date – something that Putin asked the leaders the antifascist protest movement to do.
see: http://en.itar-tass.com/world/730819
((*.*))
As you may know, Fuchedzhi, the Odessa deputy police chief, has fled abroad. Let me put forward a theory regarding Fuchedzhi. First of all, we agree he managed the false flag “red armband” group. He ordered his police to let them through to attack the football supporters, then to let them back out when the football supporters chased them, then to close lines so that the football supporters would head for the trade union building and the peace camp in front of it, blaming “pro-Russians” in general, and trash everything, while the red armbands (now no longer pretending to be “pro-Russian” but instead looking like Right Sector again) went ahead with the wet work. OK? Now, Fuchedzi must have thought he was going to get a nice promotion, and there were rumours in the immediate aftermath that he would. But instead his masters in Kiev double-crossed him. They told him, now you have to take the rap for letting the “pro-Russians” attack the football crowd. You have to go into court, admit your dereliction of duty, and confess that you were bribed or seduced by Russian agents. You have to reinforce the public myth that the “red armbands” were real “pro-Russians.” Then, and only then, we will quietly spirit you away to a dacha somewhere and you can enjoy a modestly affluent retirement. At this point, Fuchedzi realises that he should never have gotten into bed with these serpents, and he does a runner, just like in the movies.
Some good analysis, but one point which shouldn’t be overlooked:
From Russia’s perspective a split of the Ukraine really isn’t in their interests. The more Russian areas that split off the more reactionary the remaining rump state will be.
This is bad both in terms of the geopolitical orientation of that country and the treatment of the remaining Russian speakers.
There’s also the fact that there’s not any clear line to draw as the border – so there’d always be the issue of leaving a lot of Russian speakers behind in the fascist rump state and/or having quite a few resentful Ukrainian speakers annexed into Russia. Both are a recipe for a big mess.
Partitions tend to be quite messy – see for example what happened with India and Pakistan.
A much better outcome is to keep some state called “Ukraine” within its current borders (without Crimea) but use whatever combination of rebellion, military coup, or direct intervention to effect a “regime change” for the entire territory.
Saker:
“Moscow unilaterally suspended an agreement on May 5, under which had agreed to provide information for the former Rep.Sovietica of Lithuania on Russian arms and armed forces in the Kaliningrad region.”
This mess is an important stone in the tray.
Poles should be with your ass in hand (excuse the foul language).
Another thing: camouflage (hot weapons may be hidden in any garage) can be sent inflated with hot air over railroad.
No, I do not believe that a screw has left the border.
I read somewhere a instagran, a guy in Austria talking about NATO tanks in east direction.
Putin said he pulled troops as political, as I believe strategist who did not.
Oh, I liked the songs!
Alexandre.
While I don’t claim to have serious background in the region, this fits quite closely with my hunch about how things might turn out.
I thought, as the events were unfolding, the difference between Crimea and Donbass was that while majority of the population in the former are actual Russian, majority of the latter in the latter are merely pro-Russian Ukrainians. The former want to be in Russia, but the latter do not, even if they want to maintain close relations with Russia. The Kiev government has not yet offended the latter enough for them to rise up so far. It makes every sense for the government of Russia to wait rather than take a precipitous step.
To append the previous comment, I’d like to believe that the Russian special ops men, if they have been present in Eastern Ukraine, were more likely to have been taking polls (figuratively or possibly literally) rather than inciting crowds, gauging potential support for a direct Russian intervention and for armed groups resisting Kiev. Now, that would be a clever use of political science…as actual science rather than fodder for nonsensical sloganeering.
@afterthought “There are segments within the West (EU & US) that are innately hostile to Putin: Jews, homosexuals and other Cultural Marxists”
Being a homosexual fan of Putin, there is at least one not innately hostile.
Hi Saker,
Like to share Australians’s bias on Russia and support the Ukraine, and the Ukraine are recruiting more young Ukrainians volunteer to defend their country. Sickening!
Risk of civil war looms in Ukraine
http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/content/2014/s4000071.htm
JC
@ Afterthought,
Don’t forget our candle in the box with light bulbs, maverick John ‘Russia is a gas station run by a mafia that is masquerading as a country’ McCain. He sang like a canary back in day but can’t seem to find a war he doesn’t like.
As is and has been shown in Iraq and Afghanistan, no military can fight and win a guerrilla war. They can inflict huge losses, but look at FUKUS and how they’re heading home with no solid victory I can think of.
The way Putin/Russia dealt with the Crimea crisis, was an eyeopener to me [I didn’t see it coming], but @ PA 1400 the Roze-tinted blinkers didn’t come off.
FUKUS wants the bear to come charging down the hills, but this ain’t no trained monkey. There’s a slew of things Putin does I completely disagree with, however, I’m elated that finally someone stands up to FUKUS and says, “Enough is enough.”
I sincerely hope Yats and cohorts haven’t installed a special unit, filled with Right wing hooligans to do some more killing. I also hope the army won’t fire those GRADs.
Overall I’m glad Putin shows this much restraint.
Action in Donetsk?Interesting stuff.
https://news.vice.com/video/russian-roulette-dispatch-thirty-five
On Tuesday morning the Ukrainian government announced it had ordered the halting of flights at Donetsk airport and the closure of the airspace across the region. The airport was almost completely empty, except for a few stranded travelers.
Later in the day, VICE News visited a Ukrainian regional military college where pro-Russia rebels had set up a perimeter surrounding the entrance to the building, blocking the road of any traffic. A Donetsk People’s Republic spokesperson said they heard that the Ukrainian ultra-nationalist group Right Sector was going to seize the academy and use it as a base.
In a sign of increased escalation, the militia in Donetsk was well equipped with AK-47s, RPGs, and even anti-tank missile launchers.
Syrian gambit: Putin bravely and quite unneccessary gave up the only deterrent another people had against the zionists. Very smart move. Actually, Putin (and the Syrians) had already won to deter Western aggression. The best answer would’ve been to Kerry’s empty bullshiting: ‘ok, as soon as the zionists get rid of their nukes’. Remember, the whole disarming was the anwer to Kerry’s demands: ‘do it, or else’. And they did it. Even the DoS admitted that it was empty improvising on the part of Kerry.
I try to translate to plain English what you’ve just said: ‘Putin could’ve solved the whole thing by force overnight but he’s choosen not to because he may look nasty in the Westen press and anyway he resulting long chaos in the U. will prove him ok, while causing long pain and misery to the people involved. But Putin bravely chose other people’s pain over an easy solution’.
You should know the basic axiom of Wester press: whatever a designated enemy does (be that reasonable or not) he/she will be ridiculed and denigrated. If it turns out that he was completely right afterwards, he never gets the credit. So appeasing the West is useless, and Im sure Putin knows it.
Im sure Putin is still wants to avoid direct confrontation with the West and that’s why he’s trying to deescalate. This is futile. Whenever he steps back, the West tries to step forward immediately. The West is actually deterred in the Ukraine. If Putin -say- declared a ‘no fly zone’ over the south and the east, they would throw temper trantums, and accept.
Does Putin’s gambit result in Ukraine not becoming a NATO base? If not, it is a terrible decision. If yes, it may work.
I think US/EU/NATO are not going to back down, and Russia loses if it is not willing to fight to protect its security interests, which are vast, in Ukraine.
Putin has decided no war for Ukraine after the West indicated it was willing to wage nuclear war-not risk it but wage it. Wage it on the soil of the Ukraine and if necessary Russia. Putin is a hero.
So what will ZATO do? Bring the Ukraine into ZATO quickly? Orchestrate an Odessa massacre every day?
Paul
Do not underestimate PA 1400 & DS 10’s Overlords’ willingness to go ‘the extra mile.’ @ http://news.yahoo.com/us-ukraine-dismiss-change-tack-putin-031421785.html
Have you noticed how mean, shrill, and unrelentingly hostile the US is being toward Russia?
Russia moves its troops back from the border, when they were already within their own country, and calls for postponing elections in Donbass, and the US replies that the Russians are lying and that their troops did not pull back from protecting their own border.
“I should have known better since Putin had already done exactly that when the USA was about to attack Syria: he “gave up” the entire Syrian chemical weapons arsenal in exchange for a disruption in the AngloZionist Empire’s momentum towards an attack on Syria. At the time his gambit was also greeted by a chorus of “the Russians caved in! they betrayed Assad!” and yet eight months later nobody can deny that Syria is winning the war.”
False; there was no such chorus. Everybody knew perfectly well that Syria’s chemical weapons were worth nothing and the cancellation of the US attack was a great victory for Syria. Go check; you won’t find anyone in the whole world who sympathised with Syria and thought it was a cave-in. Now on the other hand, the great majority of Russia’s friends (except those whose job is to say otherwise) think what Putin did yesterday was shameful.
Sheer speculations, Dr. Watson, what if no idea of yours would be fulfilled? What would be probable plan B for Mr. Putin?
What if the US will conjure up Ukrainian Marshall Plan in exchange for NATO bases? They print money by tons, 100 tons more is nothing for them.
Odessa with US Navy boys raping “Ukrainian” girls from time to time like in Okinawa? Two Big Navies in one puddle?
Saker, sleep it over once more.
Saker,
What about the 17 billion IMF deal supposedly offered to Ukraine? This deal should keep the regime afloat at least for a bit, should it not?
I understand that it is a band-aid, but keeping the patient on life-support can be effective for quite a bit of time – years, in fact.
Is it possible that Putin would not mind seeing Ukraine go further into debt and stick it to the west by making THEM (the Empire) fund the gas bills? If so, we’ll soon see the anti-Russian propaganda machine kick in at full gear again.
Or, is there something I’m missing?
Respectfully,
DT
When with Perestroika and Glasnost and the Berlin Wall fall some people shook their heads and said that this was a gambit. Everybody laughed, all have read the book of Andrei Amalrik, Will the USSR survive until 1984?
If there is a chance to avoid a war, Putin will not miss this chance. Russians do not want the war. If not, Russians and not only Russians will fight, at least one thing that we can really do very well))
Tomorrow is a Victory Day in Russia. My grandfathers fought for my country during WWII. One burned in a tank defending Leningrad, the other was heavily wounded near Warsaw and died after the war. Possibly, they are flying in crane flocks…
Let’s listen to the famous Russian song “Ballads of the Cranes” performed by Mark Bernes
http://youtu.be/QsWqr_9Px48
Lyrics:
It seems to me sometimes that all the soldiers,
Who never came from battles of the war,
Were not just only laid into the dirt, but
Were turned into the cranes, as white as snow.
So they are flying ever since those ages.
They call for us and maybe that is why
Their voices are so full of burning sadness,
And we keep silence looking into sky.
The flock of cranes is flying slow and sadly
Through colors of a sundown. I can see
That there is a small gap between them, maybe
It is a spot that’s meant, my friend, for me.
There will be day and I will fly right there,
There will be day and may be it is close.
And from the skies above I will be sending
My voice for those I loved and left on earth.
Like you, Saker, I was shocked at first when I read about Putin’s announcement yesterday evening.
After a brief reflection however, I saw what he’s done there: Putin has now put the USA and EU on the spot. They now must restrict the Kiev thugs – but will they be able to?
He has shown with this move that the USA/EU own kiev, that everything happening is down to them – and the best is that Putin announced this after his talk with the OSCE head, who at the moment is the President of Switzerland, a country known for her neutrality.
I think Putin has totally out-played the USA, EU, and Kiev. Never mind the outcries and outrageous demands already coming from Kerry: they are now standing there without their clothes …
About being Slav:
You may have Slavic surname like me here in Brazil;
You might like to be but Slavic;
You must SHOW that is Slavic.
Without this statement believe that Russia will do nothing.
Alexandre.
It happened before, for 550 years ago. France, a weakened state with hostile countries from all directions. The french king Luis the XI used hard diplomacy and psy ops. France back then was a very weak state and much smaller but the genius king left France much bigger and much more powerful and not because he was fighting with armies but thru manipulations and hard diplomacy. He invented modern diplomacy. Russia is in much much better shape than France back then. Putin makes similar moves and he’s trying to antagonize EU against USA, The best part is; they don’t even realize it. He looks maybe weak for naive Europeans and, sorry, stupid gringos but he’s far from weak. My five cents in bad English. :)
From the negotiating perspective, Putin is just brilliant. You cannot negotiate without compromises from both parties. This is exactly what he did. He is asking to postpone the referendum which would not be recognized anyway, so no real value to anyone if it happens this weekend. He is bringing both parties in return to one table which Russia has wanted to do all along but Kiew was refusing. If I read correctly, Kiew has accepted this now. He is also saying that the elections in May are “a step in the right direction” but only if all parties will participate – so he still has all possibilities not to recognize it in the end if not all parties can express their will. In return, Russia is showing itself as a partner who is ready for discussions, bringing both parties together and, hopefully, avoiding further blood shed.
Here is an article on this as well:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/05/07/us-ukraine-crisis-putin-idUSBREA460WI20140507
and the full speech from yesterday: http://eng.kremlin.ru/transcripts/7143
There is, perhaps, the great unknown of tomorrow in this quantum politics of strange and anti-strange quarks.
I just recently watced the Russian TV version of “War and Peace,” and learned about how Moscow was vacated by its populatiom whwn confronted by Napoleon’s French army. Although the city was burned and looted, the French army was decimated by the forces of nature when they withdrew. So, there is a heritage of people willing to sustain a loss knowing how such a loss will play out further down the road, when it’s frigid, and there’s no oil to burn for warmth.
Plus, how much further can this charade go on in the view of the educated portion of the global poulation before the eyes of the world begin to truly see the corruption of a failing empire in a flagrant attempt at over reach?
I wouldn’t dare offer a prediction on the outcome of events, because life is too unexpected. Great analysis though, Saker!
An article on just who Putin is.
http://www.russiaotherpointsofview.com/2014/04/russia-report-putin-.html
Stivan
Here’s what I wrote elsewhere in an economic/financial context:
quote
Interesting news today. “Putin blinked” is all over the MSM. Juvenile analysts, shallow notions, and OK corral analysis.
In the first place, there’s SunTzu:
“When you are strong, appear weak. When you are weak, appear strong.
When you are at rest, appear to be moving. When you are moving, appear to stand still.”
Less philosophically, my first thought was that Merkel/OSCE & Putin have made a deal.
In plain English: “Both of us know which way the river is running. You make a show of backing off, and I’ll twist arms in EU/EC/EZ councils to back off. Neither of us want a malfunctioning Ukraine. Both of us need to keep the Eurasian Project moving forward.”
Putin’s move places 100 little wedges into EU-NATO’s fault lines. The big boys in the EU know it’s them that will suffer the consequences of US megalomania and Putin has just given them the space they need to drive their point. Big boys like Siemens, BASF, Daimler, Volkswagen etc have Merkel’s ear, just as ABB, Nestle, Peugeot-Citroen, etc have the ear of their capitals. And not just their Capitals, but the entire EUR structure is dependent on their continued success. Follow the money. Their investment trends say that they look at America like it’s yesterday’s news.
Note that the politicians screaming the loudest are the ones whose “big boys” missed the Eurasian Bandwagen :-).
Putin gains a great deal if the gambit works, and loses very little if it doesn’t. Pulling back the troops a few kilometers can be reversed in 48hrs (they were there for show/distraction anyway). The SE Ukraine, even Donbass, didn’t seem into it. The miners stayed quiet. In any case, it certainly couldn’t hold a valid referendum while people were being publicly immolated.
This puts the junta on the spot. Either they say “Fuck the EU” or “Fuck the USA”. Nuland just got turned on her head.
/quote
The missing narrative is that while Putin, Xi and some ‘Stan’s Presidents are driving the political bus for Eurasian cooperation, they are doing it in partnership with the big Chinese, European, and Russian industrial conglomerates that are building the roads, railways, power stations, airports, pipelines, etc that will physically integrate Eurasia. A staggering amount of planning, money and effort has gone into the project to date. These are long term developments that will mature in the decades to come. Long term doesn’t scare these people. EG: Siemens has been continuously active in Russia for 160 yrs and they aren’t going to walk away from their investments so a bunch of wild-eyed, inside-the-Beltway neo-nuts can have a passing fling with ideological insanity.
I am convinced they had a hand in presenting an opening to Putin. A little discussion between men who understand “how things work” and an agreement can almost always be reached.
In the end, another disaster will be hung around the neocons’ collective neck. Aside from the cessation of UA bloodshed, the whole world wins should this prove to be their final failure.
Erebus
I feel the reason for the pro Russians not coming out in force may also be a conflict of interests. Sure they may hate the current government in Kiev, but may not be so sure of the future. They may be averse to independence or seceding. They may want to send their children to the land of milk and honey in the west. They may consider their fellow Ukrainians as rash and imprudent; but in the end their fellow countrymen. I also feel that Putin’s current move will, in their minds, corroborate their line of thinking. Putin is Russia’s president, not theirs. He is acting first in Russia’s geopolitical interests. Crimea was needed by Russia, the south and the east are an unwanted headache.
The comparison with Syria’s chemical stockpile is a bit askew. The Americans were ready to bomb Syria, that would have led to the end of Assad. There is a lot of manoeuvring space yet in the Ukraine. And a lot of other details differ.
Maybe Putin is not drawing his red lines yet. There is still time to take on the Empire.
Mindfriedo
It’s a good article.
Does America Have Ukraine’s Back?
Why Kiev should be worried.
Nikolas K. Gvosdev
Especially I like the following:
..I am not privy to the private conversations, but I hope that U.S. emissaries have been clear and unambiguous in their statements to Ukrainian officials as to what they can and cannot expect from the United States. My concern is that while many members of the Ukrainian government may have an excellent grasp of the English language, they may not be able to translate accurately American political speech. “You will not walk this road alone” is not code for a security guarantee, the provision of effective military assistance or even a guarantee that Russia’s ties to Western economies will be severed, and in fact may not mean much more than we “will feel your pain.” An effective translation matrix would be to add to any open-ended, broad, or vague public commitment of support the proviso “as long as it doesn’t cost much” or to indicate that “support” may mean a rousing speech in the United Nations but not the imminent arrival of the 101st Airborne in Kyiv. The translation matrix should also contain reference to the peculiar American system of separation of powers—that members of Congress can make promises to their heart’s content that are absolutely not binding to the United States one whit—a mistake Georgians learned to their regret.
http://nationalinterest.org/feature/does-america-have-ukraines-back-10329?page=show
What if Putin thinks that Novorossia is strong enough to win? The early referendum does not give much in the actual situation anyway, so Putin does not loose much not supporting it. The elections will fail even if Putin supports them.
Some political distance between Russia and Novorossia may be helpful – it can increase local support for Novorossia among those who do not want it as part of Rossia. It may be better, in the long run, to have an independent state of Novorossia or a federational Ukraine, instead of a Greater Rossia.
People of Ukraine are starting to blame Russia for Ukraine’s economic problems. They’re saying that Russia is disrupting the economy. Putin playing nice will eliminate that argument. The people will point their fingers at Kiev by this summer.
(Have not read you text yet.)
When I woke up this morning, I realized why Putin’s proposal was a winner.
So far Kiev and the West have not allowed to have any say in Ukrainian affairs. I they accept it, that will have to accept that from now on Putin calls the shots in the South and East.
Okay, let us admit that it is better to abandon the idea of referendums on the May 11th, that it is better to let make the presidential election on May 25th. But this future president must have no slightest legitimacy, at least on the scale of the whole country.
Then,
1) That it have not a single candidate other than those of the junta : an oligarch, a Nazi, a Pravii Sektor one. Two candidates have already withdrew some weeks ago (having been assaulted). The others who would stupidly be tempted by the presidency, they will have the intelligence to hold on?
And 2) that it have a massive abstention, that is of 80 or 90 % of east people and of the South, in this election there. Especially that they do not imagine to vote for ” the most less bad “. Will they be rather clear-sighted to understand it and hold on?
Just came to mind: in a way, Putin’s playing a political version of the elastic defence strategy used against the Nazis in WW2 by both the USSR and US. As in, you retreat slowly and carefully when the enemy advances, you let him capture this or that objective, you let him celebrate his “great victories”. And then you cut his supply lines off, encircle and destroy him.
Putin’s basically giving the Banderists more and more rope to hang themselves, and by proxy, he’s driving a wedge between the US and Germany (as the rest of EU has either no power at all or is controlled by unpopular US puppets, i.e. France, UK, Italy).
We Westerners are unfamiliar with long-term thinking, which is precisely what Putin is doing.
Or, as a friend of mine once said, we (Italians) think of the next week, Americans of the next semester, Germans of the next five years, and the Chinese of the next century.
Dear Saker,
My position from day one has NOT changed, that both Obama and Putin are in cahoot. Both are ensuring that the Empire slowly, slowly adjust itself towards downward decline, rather than collapse. The collapse of Empire will automatically trigger WW3, which we will definitely destroy the Mother Earth.
For Putin’s cooperation, I have the following same position from day one:
1. Crimea was given to Putin on a silver platter.
2. The rest of the Ukraine will become a Federal Country as per Putin’s wishes.
One has to pull back to see what is happening in rest of the world between USA and Russia, than concentrate just only on Ukraine.
Best regards,
Mohamed.
Okay, let us admit that it is better to abandon the idea of referendums on the May 11th, that it is better to let make the presidential election on May 25th. But this future president must have no slightest legitimacy, at least on the scale of the whole country.
Then,
1) That it have not a single candidate other than those of the junta : an oligarch, a Nazi, a Pravii Sektor one. Two candidates have already withdrew some weeks ago (having been assaulted). The others who would stupidly be tempted by the presidency, they will have the intelligence to hold on?
And 2) that it have a massive abstention, that is of 80 or 90 % of east people and of the South, in this election there. Especially that they do not imagine to vote for ” the most less bad “. Will they be rather clear-sighted to understand it and hold on?
I was impressed by what Dmitry said from @ 3:58 on that Vice News interview outside a Donetsk military barracks
We have taken control of the exits. We believe that part of the Right Sector is going to attack the (Ulrainian) military or that they are already inside there. So we have to check the military; we have to check the information. And as well, we also have an order concerning all military institutions located with Donetsk. There was a resolution made that all military structures will be reassigned and we are doing our best to secure all these institutions. As you know, this is now a war and the Ukrainian troops are using aviation and armoured vehicles against civilians. We have to avoid the possibility of attacks on our bases.
I have to say that, after Odessa, there is no more neutrality; every military base must annouce if it is with or against its own people
The DPR guys also appear to be well-disciplined and have anti-tank weapons – maybe Saker could comment.
One small remark about yesterday’s Putin request to postpone referendum. Not long ago Putin made reference to Novorussia (Новороссия) in one of his speeches. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Novorossiya)
You have to take the Novorussia idea in your mind and begin your analysis from this point again. May 11 is too early date for the referendum.
Chess player? I don’t know. I just checked it on Wikipedia: Yes, Putin’s favourite sport is judo.
So. Any more questions?
(As is well known, judo is the art of letting the adversary fall by his own dynamics by giving way.)
Mevedev likes chess, at least Wikipedia says so.
Chess is a linear game whilst life is lateral through interactivity.
Always remember the US excels and winning battles and losing wars. I suspect Putin is more than happy to do the opposite.
Espina said
As they would say in Scotland…..
‘Vlad’s a canny lad’
Patience grasshoppers
Espina Scotland
The Odessa massacre
Having now studied dozens of videos, pictures and Google Russian-language translated accounts of events, I have begun to flesh-out the Wikispooks Ukraine coup 2014 and Odessa massacre pages
I have not pulled any punches on the Odessa massacre. Evidence that it was a carefully planned and executed false-flag operation really is overwhelming, so no OTOH – OTO obfuscations; I’m calling a spade a spade as the saying goes.
The fact that Colonel Dmitry Fuchedzhe, the Odessa Deputy Police chief i/c that day, and clearly visible briefing the ‘red arm-bands’ on many videos, has fled the country is pretty conclusive confirmation of his role. I just hope the Russians find him before the Junta does.
I could really use some informed help to develop these pages. I am aiming to make them solid quality easy-to-find reference material. The site and its content are FULLY open-source in that full site backups are available to anyone and are auto-updated every week so, in the event of a sudden site disappearance, your work can easily be reconstituted anywhere.
For those intimidated by wikitext authoring, all I need is well authored and referenced text content. I and other volunteers can look after the presentation and formatting
Vineyard Saker, I wonder if you or any of your readers can help me. James Petras in a recent article “The Kiev Putsch: Rebel Workers Take Power in the East” claims the following of the new Kiev government:
“They purged all elected opposition office holders in the West and East and appointed local governors by fiat – essentially creating a martial law regime.”
Would you or any of your readers have any links or evidence they can point me to about this?
With thanks. D
Very interesting
http://rt.com/news/157496-russia-iran-space-satellite/
Mindfriedo
This is also a judo-inspired move. You allow your ‘dynamic opponent’ to destroy himself by his own mis-directed dynamics.
Regards,
VS
@Mohamed
Salamunalaikum
It took me some time to find this:
With the passage of an hour, out of four thousand people, only nine survived and the rest were killed. Out of those nine men, two fled to Sistan. The Khawarij in Sistan are the progeny of these two men. Two others went to Oman. Abaziah are their progeny. The other two went to Yemen where they produced the generation of Abaziah. The other two fled to Bawazij and the last one of them took refuge to Mozan hills.[226]
Here’s the link:
http://www.duas.org/battles.htm
I had read somewhere else of the Khwarji influence on Ibadhi thought. Will post it for you when I find it.
Mindfriedo
A comment by John of April 23 bears repeating:
‘Received a quote in my mail yesterday supposedly from Putin: “Negotiating with Obama is like playing chess with a pigeon. The pigeon knocks over all the pieces, shits on the board and then struts around as if it won the game.”‘
Thank God for Putin’s knowledge of chess strategy and tactics.
My take on the Ukrainian situation and its possible consequences is this:
1. Putin wants a Donbass independent of Kiev, but not necessarily part of Russia. Therefore he persuaded the E. Ukrainians to postpone their May 11 referendum, and presumably is or will be providing all assistance possible for the E. Ukrainians to hold off the Ukrainian military, the SBU and the murderous Right Sector thugs.
2. Putin has no interest in preventing the May 25 presidential election (or what will pass for that), since to do so would just give the lying Western MSM another excuse to demonize him as ‘an enemy of democracy’.
3. That ‘election’ will be held and rump Ukraine will get ‘an elected President’, Tymoshenko or some other oligarch willing to follow orders from the West. Whoever it is will immediately either invite NATO forces in (to defend against ‘Russian aggression’) or will apply to join NATO (which application would, of course, be fast-tracked, and be followed quickly by NATO forces entering rump Ukraine).
4. It would be unwise (politically and militarily) for Russia to allow NATO to occupy rump Ukraine, especially as this would probably mean missile bases close to the Russian border. Remembering the Russian occupation of Pristina airport in June 1999, and of Simferopol airport at the end of February 2014, Russia could and should (as soon as possible after the presidential invitation to NATO) secure all airports and roads in rump Ukraine which could be used by NATO to occupy the rump Ukraine, and declare a no-fly zone over the whole area to prevent NATO bombing raids. This might mean a few US planes being shot down (I doubt the Luftwaffe would volunteer to test Russian sincerity), with resultant hysteria in the West, but that’s better than missile bases being established on the Russian border.
5. With NATO and Russia at a very intense and dangerous standoff, or preferably before this, Russia should ensure the support of China and the other BRICs in the event that the US (insanely) decides to launch a full-scale war against Russia (a nuclear war, of course). As mata h ari pointed out yesterday, “Russia is perhaps not strong enough to confront NATO (ie US) and may become cannon fodder. However, with China and Iran and Brazil allied to Russia, Putin/Moscow has a good chance of neutralizing Washington’s aggressive and hostile moves. … It is therefore imperative that Russia MUST NOT be isolated. It must have ALLIES. It MUST NOT be made to stand alone against an aggressive, hostile global power.”
6. While Russia is ensuring the support of China et al. in the possible event of a full-scale war, the allies can be setting up the global financial mechanisms which will result in the rapid demise of the US dollar with as little harm as possible to their economies.
7. At some point in all this the populations of the EU member states will have come to understand the imminent threat to their lives by their cowardly US-sycophant governments, and will either have voted them out of office (preferably) or will have eliminated them ‘by other means’, permanently removing the post-WWII US hegemony over Europe and hopefully bringing about the demise of the EU itself.
In this way Earth can at last be rid of the evil Anglo-Zionist Empire with minimal destruction and harm to the inhabitants of this planet, who have long suffered under its callous and immoral predation. And hopefully Obama will be the last U.S. President.
“Afterthought on 08 May, 2014 02:52 said…
I largely agree with this, except the enmity between the alleged sides is not total, and that allows for diplomatic creativity, which war takes away.”
Dear Afterthought,
As usual very excellent and thoughtful summary of the events.
Best regards,
Mohamed.
I would not put my money on Russia not being blamed for any future economic collapse in the Ukraine. The so called government in Kiev have already shown themselves to be like a pathetic spoilt brat of a child,i.e, running to the USA/EU at every opportunity e.g.”It’s not fair that we have to live in the grown up world and pay the market price for gas – please daddy USA/EU punish that nasty Russia” – From a UK citizen who is sick of his own poodle of a government
“Anonymous Anonymous on 08 May, 2014 05:00 said…
Being a homosexual fan of Putin, there is at least one not innately hostile.”
Dearest Anonymous,
Excellent! Blessed are those who are good and honest. What people do behind closed doors, it is between them and God. What people do outside the closed doors in public, then it becomes the societies’ business. The heterosexual have no right what they do in public and then deny the same rights to the homosexuals.
Sex and affection of sex are intimate thingies and should be kept behind closed doors. But the heterosexual don’t abide by this rule and then they turn around and blame the homosexuals.
This is the Islamic position on everything.
Best regards,
Mohamed.
Putin chose the best option. He is a very clever man.
Not police, P, but CIA-SBU. The core Maidan apparat was moved en masse into Odessa, & many key players remain in situ there. Will post links later showing them engaged in a stage-managed bifurcation.
Your friend in the North
As well as being a competent chess player, Putin is also a much more skilled Judo player.With the correct stance and position, the full weight of ones aggressive opponent can be utilised in order to throw him onto his back, thereby defeating him. The force of US and EU propaganda is being quickly dismantled by the the plain unvarnished truth presented in the observed footage of the Banderstans and right wing Ukrainian Nationalist Thugs harassing, beating and murdering innocents, whilst chanting vile murderous slogans. US and European countries Prosecuting hate crime at home but legitimising it in Ukraine will buckle under the force of the many cognitive dissonances they are attempting to defend. Judo Master Putin and Russia can absorb the forces placed against it and then strategically move into position and watch those forces collapse in on themselves
Time is on russia’s side, I guess…
Escalation towards a referendum and a definite separation of the eastern regions would leave the western rest of ukraine to a junta that would almost certainly associate with NATO and maybe even have NATO troops stationed within its borders.
On the other hand, let those puppets and fanatics rule the country for half a year, and everyone will be dissatisifed, probably even the right-wingers that even nowadays are still holding camp on the maidan (against oligarch corruption!).
Let them have their way and all the while try to organize a truly political resistance and in the mid-term you can roll back the fascist NATO puppets and have influence over the whole of ukraine, not only half of it.
I was initially equally baffled about Mr. Putin’s proposal, then realized, it was a smart move.
Thank you for another brilliant analysis.
Today, however, the Kiev Hunta National Security Advisor Parubi said, that the “Anti Terror Operation” will continue regardless of the peace initiative.
As a result, both Lugansk and Donesk Republic Deputies have just decided not to move the Referendum date,
but to carry on with the planned date of May 11th.
Another note – the NATO Staff drill is being carried out in Spain – the goal – defense of Estonia against a Russian attack. Nato Secretary General, Rasmussen, will arrive in Tallinn, Estonia today and stay for two days.
Peace is not an option for Nato, it seems…
In response, Russia just passed a Nuclear Forces Military drill, overseen by the president himself. It was to deter a rocket attack on Russia and to respond accordingly.