If anything the past 24 hours have proved, once again, that the US and NATO are opposed to any form of negotiations, confidence-building measures or any other type of negotiations with the Donbass and with Russia. Even though Putin tried really hard to sound accommodating and available for a negotiated solution, the US/NATO policy is clearly to provoke and confront Russia and its allies in every imaginable way. The same goes, of course, for the junta freaks whose forces have acted with special brutality during repressive operations in the city of Mariupol. As for the AngloZionist Empire, it is organizing all sorts of military maneuvers in Poland, the Baltic states and elsewhere. Logically, many of you are coming to the conclusion that a war is becoming a very real possibility and I therefore want to repeat a few things yet again.
First, there is no military option for the AngloZionists in the Ukraine, at least not against Russia. This is primarily due to three fact things: geography, US overreach and politics. Geography, it is much easier for Russia to move a ground forces to the Ukraine than it is for the US/NATO, especially for heavy (mechanized, motor-rifle, armored, tank) units. Second, simply too many US forces are committed elsewhere for the US to have a major war in against Russia in eastern Europe. Third, for the time being the western public is being deceived by the corporate media’s reports about the “Russian paper tiger”, but as soon as the real fighting starts both Europeans and Americans will suddenly wonder if it is worth dying for the Ukraine. Because if a shooting war between the USA and Russia really begins, we will all be at risk (see below).
Remember how the very same media promised that the poorly equipped, poorly trained, poorly commanded and poorly motivated Russian military could not crack the “tough nut” represented by the NATO-trained Georgian military?
Second, we have to remember that it is never possible to oppose to forces on paper and say that “A” is stronger than “B”. Afghanistan and Iraq are perfect examples of the kind of misguided conclusions a self-deluding political leadership can reach when it begins to believe its own lies. So without committing the political “crime of crimes” and suggesting that the invincible US military is anything but invincible, let me suggest the following: if the Russian conventional forces were to be defeated you can be absolutely sure that Russia would have to engage its tactical nuclear capabilities at which point the situation would escalate into a well-known Cold War conundrum. The theory of deterrence suggests that you should reply at the same level, but not above, then your adversary’s first move. So, a Russian tactical nuclear strike in, say, Poland or even the Ukraine would have to be met by a similar US strike. But where? Where is the Russian equivalent of Poland for the USA? Belarus? But that is much more like a Russian strike on Canada – really close to home. Kazakhstan? Ridiculous – too far. Obviously not Armenia. So where would the US retaliate? Against Russian forces in the Donbass, but that is right across the border. Maybe in Russia itself? But that would mean striking at the Russian territory proper. What will Russia do in this case – strike at Poland? Germany? The ‘equivalent’ response would be to strike at the US mainland, of course, but that would be inviting a full-scale US retaliation, which would inevitably be followed by a Russian one. And since neither side can disarm the other in a counter-force disarming strike, we are talking about a nuclear world war a la Dr Strangelove, with nuclear winter and all.
Some might find this kind of reasoning ridiculous, but anybody who has participated in the Cold War will tell you that the best minds in the USA and USSR were busy full time grappling with these issues. Can you guess what they concluded? That a nuclear won cannot be won. But that, in turn, means that no war opposing the USA to Russia can be won because any war of this kind will inevitably turn nuclear before the weaker sides surrenders. Let me put it to you in a somewhat silly but truthful way: the survival of the USA depends on Russia not losing a war. Yes, that’s right. And the converse is also true: Russia’s survival is contingent on the USA not being defeated either.
This is why Foreign Minister Lavrov has been repeating over and over again that no one side can achieve security at the expense of the other and that security has to be collective and even mutual. But was anybody listening to him across the Atlantic?
Of course, for the time being and for the foreseeable future, this will only be true for a war directly opposing Russian and US military forces. Proxy wars are okay, as are covert operations and wars against third parties. But for the time being, only Russia and the USA have the kind of full-spectrum nuclear capabilities to be able to completely destroy the other side “no matter what”. Let me explain.
It has often been said that the Russian and US nuclear forces have to be on high alert and that to avoid being destroyed in a counter-force (counter military) first strike they would have to launch on warning i.e., to launch while the other side’s missiles are incoming and before they hit their targets. The fact is that both countries practice what is called “launched under attack” which is launching while some enemy missiles have already hit. But the truth is that both the USA and Russia could afford what is called “riding out the attack” completely and still have enough strategic nuclear weapons to destroy all the key population centers of the other side. This is due to their highly redundant strategic nuclear forces. The fact is that even if, say, the USA managed to destroy every single Russian bomber and every single Russia nuclear silo, and every single Russian strategic nuclear missile carrying submarine, even those in port (who can launch right from there if needed), Russia would still have enough road-mobile ICBMs to wipe off the USA a a country. The exact same can be said of a Russian first strike on the USA which, even if unrealistically successful would still expose Russia to a massive retaliation by USN strategic nuclear missile carrying submarines. And in the real world no first strike is 100% successful. Even 95% successful is not enough if the remaining 5% can still be shot back at you.
Civilians often complain that Russia and the USA have enough nuclear weapons to destroy the planet many times over as it that was a sign of insanity. In reality, it is exactly the opposite: it is because both Russia and the USA have the peacetime ability to destroy the planet several times over that in wartime neither side can have any hopes of achieving a first strike successful enough to avoid a massive retaliation. Yes, in the world of nukes, more is better, at least from the point of view of what is called “first strike stability”.
This what sets Russia and the USA really apart: no other nuclear power has a nuclear force whose first strike survivability is as high as Russia and the USA” for the foreseeable future all other nuclear-weapons possessing powers are susceptible to a disarming first strike.
Let me give one more example of how nuclear warfare is counter-intuitive in many ways. We often hear of alert levels (DEFCONs in the USA) and the assumption is that a lower level of defense alert is better. It is not. In fact, a higher alert level is better from the point of view of first strike stability. Here is why:
In complete peacetime (DEFCON 5), most bombers are sitting on the tarmac, most crews doing their training, most subs are moored in port and most critical personnel busy with normal daily tasks. This is exactly when these forces are the most vulnerable to a disarming first strike. At higher levels of alert, the crews will be recalled to their bases, at even higher levels they will be sitting in their planes with engines running and at the highest threat level the bombers will be airborne in prepared holding positions, submarines will be flushed out to sea, all personnel in wartime command posts and, in the USA, the President has his key aides either in the air in Air Force 1 or deep inside a bunker. In other words, a higher degree of alert means much less vulnerability to a first strike and that, in turns, means more time to negotiate, find out what is really going on, more time to avoid a war.
What I am trying to illustrate here is that both Russia and the USA have developed a very sophisticated system to make it impossible for the other side to “win” a war. That system is still there today, in fact Putin has just invited the other heads of state of the CSTO to be present during a large-scale test of the Russian strategic deterrence forces (not because of the Ukraine, this exercise was scheduled over a year ago).
In other words, this means that the US/NATO know that they cannot “win” a war against Russia, not a conventional one and not a nuclear one either. Those who claim otherwise have simply no idea what they are talking about.
Which leaves two possible explanations for the current behavior of the West, and neither of them is encouraging.
First, Obama, Merkel & Co. are lunatics, and they are hell-bent into starting WWIII. I frankly cannot imagine that this is true.
Second, Obama, Merkel & Co are playing a reckless game of chicken with Putin hoping that he is bluffing and that Russia will accept a neo-Nazi run Banderastan which would be hysterically russophobic, a member of NATO and generally become an AngloZionist puppet state like Poland or Latvia.
That, my friends, is not going to happen. This is why on March 1st of this year I wrote an article warning that Russia was ready for war. And it has nothing to do with Putin, Russian imperialism or the kind of nonsense the western corporate media is spewing and everything to do with the fact that the US wants to turn the Ukraine into an existential threat to Russia while keeping together by brute violence and terror a fictional country invented by the deranged minds of western Popes and Jesuits which has no existence in reality and which would implode in less than 24 hours if left by itself.
What makes me believe that we are in a crisis potentially much more dangerous than the Cuban Missile Crisis is that at that time both the US and the USSR fully understood how serious the situation was and that the world had to be brought back from the brink of nuclear war. Today, when I listen to idiots like Obama, Kerry, Psaki & Co. I am struck by how truly stupid and self-deluded these people are. Here they are playing not only with our existence, but even with theirs, and they still are acting as if Putin was some Somali war lord who needed to be frightened into submission. But if that tactic did not work with Somali warlords, why would they think that it will work with Putin?
I will want to force myself to believe that behind all these crazy and ignorant lunatics there are men in uniform who have been educated and trained during the Cold War and who still remember the many hours spent running all kinds of computer models which all came back with the same result over and over again: a victory is impossible and war was simply not an option.
It is also possible that the Empire wants to escalate the situation in the Ukraine enough to force a Russian intervention but not enough to have a shooting war. If so, that is a very risky strategy. I would even call it criminally reckless. It is one thing to engage in all sorts of macho sabre rattling with the DPRK, but quite another to try the same trick on a nuclear superpower. The scary fact is that the bloody Democrats already have such a record of utter recklessness. Do you remember when in 1995 Clinton sent in two US aircraft carriers into the Strait of Taiwan in a cowboy-like show of macho force? At that time the Chinese wisely decided against responding to a stupid action by a equally stupid reaction, but what if this time around Obama decides to show how tough he really is and what if Putin feels that he is cornered and cannot back down?
It is scary to think that the fact that Russian and Chinese leaders are acting in a responsible way actually entices the US to act even more irresponsibly and recklessly but this does seems to be the case, especially when a Democrat is in the White House.
When is the last time you remember a US President taking upon himself to make a constructive proposal to avoid military action or a way? I honestly cannot recall such an instance.
In conclusion I can only repeat what I said so many times: there is no military option for the US/NATO against Russia. As for whether the AngloZionist plutocracy of the 1% who rule over us has gone completely crazy – your guess is as good as mine.
The Saker
Good analysis if you think the ones calling the shots in the US are loyal to the US. But if that’s not true, then a limited nuclear war could be engineered to cripple both the US and Russia.
This could be accomplished by letting Russia get in the last nuclear licks, and then calling for a ceasefire. That could work since I’m assuming the ones in control of US military policy aren’t loyal to the US, so they wouldn’t care if Russia “won”.
Dear brother Saker,
Peace, Shalom, Salam.
I am glad that you are coming to the same conclusion or you have been at it from the onset that both Obama and Putin are in cahoot from saving the Empire from a massive downfall, which will result in WW3.
Blessed are those who are Peace Makers.
Amen Rabbi,
Mohamed.
@Mohammed:both Obama and Putin are in cahoot
I never said such a thing, not do I believe it. Obama is trying to save the Empire, Putin is trying to bring it down without triggering WWIII. You are clearly completely misunderstanding me. Sorry for being so unclear.
Kind regards,
The Saker
At last…
The best of the Saker. :)
He explained issue looking into it from high ground, not blinded by details on the ground.
Although he explained nothing about “(geo) earthly forces creating the surface of Ukraine” he named few things which pushed him to write why he DID NOT understand what was going on in Ukraine in previous post.
1) Ludicrous behavior of the West
2) Dramatic lack of diplomats on the US side.
3) Deep amok which touched Western leaders together with corrupted media
4) Imbibe of own “success” of winning Cold War
5) Oncoming Big Economic Implosion when the World showed it had enough of US hypocrisy and hubris
Having seen the Globe as a whole maybe The Saker will see the string heavily strained which keep the Ukraine running yet as a state.
For the Ukraine is an artificial state just as Ukrainian nation we all already.
Metaphysical Doubts Concerning the Existence of Modern Ukraine, a 1918 Creation of the German General Staff
http://tarpley.net/metaphysical-doubts-concerning-the-existence-of-modern-ukraine-a-1918-creation-of-the-german-general-staff/
Hi Saker,
the name of the game is “low intencity conflict,” aka “Balkanization”. Purpose? To exhaust Russia as much / long as possible while not suffering any consequences. To me, Putin more & more looks like Milosevich: he reacts, doesn’t act, he hesitates with ever-worse starting position in the next round of violence, his picture of a “butcher” gains more vivid in the ziomedia, and at the end, he, being the “key evil guy,” gets completely isolated. Meanwhile, the fifth column in Russia plays on ever-worsening situation in the country do to economic downfall, & willingly participates in “removing the dictator” from the power in order “to live as the rest of the normal world.”
Look at Serbia today! It is the picture of Russia down the line, because Serbia was the testing case succeeding beyond all expectations of the zionazis. But, they worked on it hard, & it paied off.
There is no need to justify Putin for ignoring this threat all along. I can’t find it in English, but one university professor from Kharkov gave an interview in Serbian. He mentioned that, once he asked the Russian ambasador to Ukraine, the odious Chernomirdin: “why Russia is not investing in media / school programs / PR / etc. in Ukraine –like the Americans are doing–, the reply was: “We give you oil & gass at a big discount. What else do you want?” I think this idiotic responce explains the essence of the crisis in the Ukraine today.
And finally, it is the job of the Russian millitary / spec forces to defend its people — no matter where they live — which includes planning ahead in case of this or that situation. To my horror, it seems Russia was caught off guard in Ukraine. The superb response in Crimea was the matter of favorable circumstances rather than anything else, but letting unarmed civilians to fight a trained mass-murderers, & getting them into worse & worse situation at every move of the anglo-zionazis, is not a policy, it is a failure.
Ergo, Russia didn’t learn a lot from the war against Serbia–if anything.
There was an article on Zerohedge yesterday that, among other things, made the claim that “they [Russia and US or East and West] are both working toward the same goal; and both ultimately benefit from an engineered and theatrical display of international brinksmanship.”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-05-07/guest-post-false-eastwest-paradigm-hides-rise-global-currency
Reading through the comments, I was surprised at the number of people who actually believe that.
The zionazis want to isolate Russia diplomatically. Then economically. To do that, they need a Russia seen as universally evil. This is why they are continuously raising the provocation level in the Ukraine. If they can draw the Russians into the Ukraine, then they will have the “evil Russia” they need to spin the diplomatic and economic isolation. Or at least they think they will. The west is on “Israeli time” now, using Israeli tactics and strategy, acting with a fanatical Israeli mindset. Zionazis don’t believe in sharing power, they are obsessed with wanting total control.
The question is how far will the zionazis take these provocations in the Ukraine? Will they go to the Falluja level where they start leveling cities and killing 1000s of people at a time? I don’t see the zionazis using NATO openly, though, but I think they will completely trash the Ukraine to try and get at Russia.
The zionazis are also running the same provocative strategy against China, though at a much lower tempo.
I don’t think the US want war, and there will be no war between the west and Russia. But the US don’t want to take the burden of Ukraine, they also don’t want to look weak. So their response is quite understandable. At current situation, the west clearly is on the losing side, they have to gain something back. They don’t want Ukraine to be their political liability and economic burden. So they keep pushing the situation in hope that Russia will intervene, they shift the burden to Russia.
“Whom the gods would destroy, they first make mad” — “Quem deus vult perdere, dementat prius”. (Samuel Johnson, 1783).
First of all, I would like to thank you Saker, for your work, time and effort you put into your superb blog.
I really appreciate it, because even though this blog is not the only place I search for information, it’s definitely the best. Sometimes I feel like everything that is happening is going to end really bad, but your analysis often calm me down and let me go through my day.
I mean, I still do think that at least minor confrontation is unavoidable, because those in charge of US politics are SICK and I’m starting to belive they actually cold be REALLY out of there minds! But still I do believe in Putin and his companions.
I’m Czech and even though a lot of people (majority)around me don’t like Russians because of historical reasons or the sh*t they are being fed by MSM or whatever, I truly admire those great things which Russians did for us in the past (WW2 etc.) and what are they doing today.
I wish I could live under such a strong leadership and even more, defend it by myself if the worse should happen.
Anyway I would like to ask you if it’s okey, if I could continuously translate your great analysis presented at this blog in Czech and post it to some sites (including my facebook page).
Many of my friends are aware of that a lot of things in tv is just pure bullsh*t, and there are actually few good websites in Czech, but the best ones are in english so I would love to share your wisdom by translating it.
Have a good life and keep up good work !
The Anglo oligarchs are intelligent but mentally ill.
They have created 2 world wars to prevent Eurasian coop – and you think that Russia will get away with it now.
Think again.
The triple entente has deliberately plunged a peaceful world into unspeakable disasters.
And you think Russia is different now.
We are a little naive arent we?
Few points:
1. Russia doesn’t have allies. As Russians are fond of saying, “Russia has only two friends – its Army and its Navy”. It’s an old proverb, and today it would list two more pals – Air Force and Strategic Command.
America has no allies either, btw. It has clients, dependents, satellites, fellow travelers, but no friends. Geopolitics (as well as any other politics) and true friendship are incompatible. “Countries don’t have friends, only interests” is the basis on which highly nuanced Russian diplomacy operates. Russia is far more comfortable in acting alone, rarely seeks support of other parties, and usually is not terribly rattled by its relative isolation.
2. “Zionazis” are not crazy. They are rational actors. With regards to Russia, their bluster is a natural reflex aimed at avoiding confrontation. And the more they are afraid, the louder are their screams and the more unhinged are their threats. Today’s rule of the thumb – Do not take what they say too seriously, if it’s not all bluff, then it’s mostly lies.
3. West is much, much weaker than it looks. It’s in demographic death spiral, as well as in terminal phase of moral decomposition, and in financial/economic ruin. All of the countries comprising it are running on fumes and none of them can afford real war. They are self-liquidating even in these peaceful times.
4. Far from actually wanting Russia to invade Ukraine (as many seem to believe), the US is mortified by any display of Russian assertiveness. Ukraine has all but disappeared from front pages of American media. It’s an escapism of the ostrich variety. “If I pretend not to see it, maybe it will disappear”. Russian defiance drastically worsens West’s global positioning, and outright collapses America’s standing. I am sure Washington’s best strategists are brainstorming 24/7 not on how to destroy Russia, but on how to co-opt Putin and make Russia a part of the cabal.
The Anglo oligarchs are intelligent but mentally ill.
They have created 2 world wars to prevent Eurasian coop – and you think that Russia will get away with it now.
Think again.
The triple entente has deliberately plunged a peaceful world into unspeakable disasters.
And you think Russia is different now.
We are a little naive arent we?
Excellent article Saker… thank you for all your time and effort wrt this blog. As so many others have stated, where would we be without it?
I grew up during the first ‘Cold War’ – those of us who did know its history and the concept of ‘MAD’ – Mutually Assured Destruction –
My concern is that the Neocons in the US State Department (Nuland et al) are not receptive to the concept… they appear to be bent on their own agenda. I hope that I am wrong.
Namaste
if we’re going to talk about paper tigers, the real paper tiger is the US Air Force.
America hasn’t fought against a real enemy air force/air defense system since 1973.
Look how much chaos a handful of Vietnamese pilots and SAM batteries caused.
Cruise missiles are ineffective against Russian electronic countermeasures and in the first 24 hours of an air campaign against Russian targets, the US would probably see a minimum of $1 billion worth of aircraft shot down.
reportedly one of the real reasons the US attacks on Syria were called off was because of the high loss rates projected by the Pentagon.
Canadian says:
Your analysis has been undertaken at the level of the state. What if this is no longer the operative level of international engagement? What if the operative level is on a corporatist / oligarchic basis?
Under such an analysis we have a group of western “leaders” who are members of a rent seeking corporate class. Examine the US congress and tell me how many millionaires you see. How can this be at all representative of the US polity? It clearly is not the least bit representative.
Ask yourself how it was that America voted for Hope and Change and instead got Bush II? To what degree are Bush and Obama the same person, titular figureheads for the same corporatist interests?
You can ask the same questions about the U.K. and you find the same class of people in power. Under U.K. austerity spending on defence is going up (they are building two large deck aircraft carriers and have committed to a large purchase of F-35 aircraft).
Ask yourself what precipitated the global crash of 2008? That was not sparked by an Asian crisis or a Slavic crisis. It derived directly from the actions of US and UK banks and extremely lax banking regulation designed expressly to generate large profits for one social class at the considerable expense of all other social classes.
I do not believe that the problems of 2008 have ever been truly addressed. Swept under the carpet – Yes. Ignored by the mainstream media – Yes. Poorly understood by the man in the street who feels the effects – Yes. The leading countries of the West, the US and U.K. are sick. If they can gin up a conflict to preserve their failing global status they will do so. I believe that they are doing exactly that in regards to Ukraine.
The real question is the response from the other nations of the world, the BRICS and the non-aligned who are forced to watch as their IMF contributions are used as bait to encourage the Ukrainian putschists to use military force against their own citizens, exactly the same action that lead to Western military intervention in Libya.
Ask yourself why it is that in the entire West there are no alternate voices speaking out about this conflict? Why is it that there is so little public debate? How can it be that the US spends $5 billion to destabilize a sovereign foreign state with so little public outcry? Ask yourself do we truly enjoy what we like to call “democratic” rule? Or are we simply along for the ride, being driven into a conflict by persons who care not a whit for our interests as they are so closely focused on their own.
VINEYARDSAKER: on 08 May, 2014 20:30 said…
I never said such a thing, not do I believe it. Obama is trying to save the Empire, Putin is trying to bring it down without triggering WWIII. You are clearly completely misunderstanding me. Sorry for being so unclear.
Salam brother,
Sorry, to completely misunderstand you. My bad and I apologize. In life being very optimistic person, I usually miss the clues.
I just saw an interview of Ehud Barak Ex-Prime Minister and Ex-Defense Minister of Israel on BBC on the TV. I don’t have the link for this interview. I will keep an eye and if it is posted on the internet, I will post the link.
You should see his views both on current affairs of Ukraine and Obama/Kerry effort on the Peace Process between Israel and Palestinians.
Peace and best regards,
Mohamed.
Greetings from Singapore:
Jakob Augstein in Der Spiegel:
Der Westen und die Ukraine: Die Kriegsgewinnler
http://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/augstein-kolumne-ueber-ukraine-krise-und-ihre-profiteure-a-968216.html
==> “Warum mischen wir uns in den inneren Zwist eines zerrissenen Landes ein?”
(Why do we get involved in the internal fight of a torn apart country?)
Media in Germany is starting to ask the right questions.
I still cannot buy into the notion that Obama Kerry etc. are running the show. US polity is dominated by ‘special interests’, the bankster oligarchs, the Deep State Oligarchy or whatever you want to call it. I cannot prove this of course. But assuming it is true and that they have some sort of agenda, I just don’t get what baiting Russia is about because I agree M.A.D. is in place, and a military take-over of Ukraine by the West, or ground war over it, is highly unlikely.
So what are they doing?
Also, given Russia is part of the same bankster system, I remain leary of Putin, even though in speech and behaviour he strikes me as more authentic than any other leader of this generation. If he is deep agent (like most of the Roosevelt adminstration was, for example, so such stuff happens in the real world), then maybe they just want a mini-war to drop some ordinance in Ukraine so that they are ready for more orders.
I will never forget a Russian general on CNN in the first Gulf crisis predicting, as it happened, almost to the day how long the bombardment would last. Based on what? Average sorties per day and the amount of ordinance they had to go through.
Military Industrial Complex shenanigans?
I really appreciate your analysis and site here, btw, even though am still baffled by the West in all this.
I still cannot buy into the notion that Obama Kerry etc. are running the show. US polity is dominated by ‘special interests’, the bankster oligarchs, the Deep State Oligarchy or whatever you want to call it. I cannot prove this of course. But assuming it is true and that they have some sort of agenda, I just don’t get what baiting Russia is about because I agree M.A.D. is in place, and a military take-over of Ukraine by the West, or ground war over it, is highly unlikely.
So what are they doing?
Also, given Russia is part of the same bankster system, I remain leary of Putin, even though in speech and behaviour he strikes me as more authentic than any other leader of this generation. If he is deep agent (like most of the Roosevelt adminstration was, for example, so such stuff happens in the real world), then maybe they just want a mini-war to drop some ordinance in Ukraine so that they are ready for more orders.
I will never forget a Russian general on CNN in the first Gulf crisis predicting, as it happened, almost to the day how long the bombardment would last. Based on what? Average sorties per day and the amount of ordinance they had to go through.
Military Industrial Complex shenanigans?
I really appreciate your analysis and site here, btw, even though am still baffled by the West in all this.
Dear Saker,
According to this BBC interview, Ehud Barak said, that Putin is not Hitler, but Bismark.
He even confirms that Ukraine will become a Federal Country.
He seems to be batting to become the next Prime Minster of Israel. Batting for another Camp David like accord, which he refused in the end. I hope Americans are not that naive.
Best regards,
Mohamed.
http://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2014/05/05/obama-prepares-smash-brics-during-his-last-few-years-office.html
Acc to Wayne Madsen, allegedly ex-spook:
“The buildup of NATO air and ground forces along the borders of Russia in eastern Europe and President Barack Obama’s American power-influencing trip to Asia have a single purpose. The seen and unseen forces who dictate policy to their political puppets in Washington, London, Paris, Brussels, Berlin, and other vassal capital cities have decided to smash BRICS – the emergent financial power bloc encompassing Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa.”
No matter what, odds are Eurasia is the central issue, aka ‘The Great Game’between the central island (Eurasia) and the maritime islands (US/Americas, UK, Australia, Japan).
jc,
Or this could simply be “let’s you and him fight” with the assumption that whatever happened, that third party would be around to pick up the (non-glowing) pieces.
I’m rather convinced at the point that none of our “leaders” are doing anything more than following orders, which may not help us in the long run (we’ll get what we so richly deserve) but may bode somewhat better for Russia. If I’m right though, at least certain capitalists, and certain types of capital, will do quite well.
I’m also very struck by the Sharon Tennison piece on Putin that Stivan recommended,
http://www.russiaotherpointsofview.com/2014/04/russia-report-putin-.html
Can you even imagine what it must be like to be him: the survival of the entire world is on his shoulders right now and he’s forced to deal with the psychopaths we’ve got in charge?
Saker,
I think you sometimes focus too much on the military and NATO eastward expansion perspective. I think there are much bigger stakes at the play here.
First of all, for the US, there is image issue. They can be a stupid bully to the world (like the Iraq war) but can’t afford to look weak, so they can’t back off. How this crisis turn out will affect elsewhere in the world, like Asia.
Second, this is not only a battle for Ukraine, but also for Europe Both the US and Russia want to use this crisis to put a wedge between the other party and Europe.
Third, this thing could mark as the real decline of the US. Obama can’t let this happen in his administration. No American president would. So they will play all the way.
As for Putin, it is better for him to play cautiously and play right for the long haul.
This thing change the power balance of the world. Russia has potential to gain big with little to lose. The US could lose big with little to gain.
Dear Saker, You mention the Georgian war. I had barely learned about it when friends–who ought to have known
better–to predict that the “decrepit Russian military was “bogged down in another Chechnyia”. Knowing that the Ossetians and Ankhasians had spirited militias and that the Russians would have full control of the air, I said “Four days.” The cease fire came on day five.
Afterward one friend said “Well, if they had just blown the Roki tunnel!” If they had, of course, the Russians would have simply swung round from the coast and “sacked up” Georgian forces still in Ossetia.
But even if the could have blown the tunnel, the Georgian strategy–must have involved leaving it open. I never thought their American advisers were dumb enough to counsel attacking, but i could just hear the Israeli involved saying “Look, if you hit them once with absolute ruthlessness, like we did in Palestine at places like Dier Yassan, the rest will be absolutely terrified and flee en masse and you will be free of them.”
The massacre in Odessa suggests to me that Kiev (just now bringing 4000 western fanatics to Odessa) intends to terrify would be resisters by making examples, most imminently, of Slavyansk to demonstrate what happens to those who dare.
Russian restraint will be interpreted by the Americans as evidence that Putin has been faced down and embolden them to push further. I expect them, among other things, to try to reignite the Nagorno-Karabash war.
Hello Dear Saker,
Hello Dear Bloggers,
thanks again for your amazing, moving and highly formative thoughts.
It’s a pivot time indeed, I deeply hope heart, reason and humanity will find a way out.
Warm Blessings and Regards
M.
вот так
We’re not just on “Israeli time” now — they’re running the show. And not just via AIPAC, either. Obama’s never been much more than a Stepin Fetchit-type decoy for the Left, while Kerry looks like he knows precisely what will happen to him, and where, should he not jump extra-high whenever he’s told.
It’s a whole new world, and the real question we’re heading towards already presumes America’s (hopefully non-catastrophic) demise: will the BRICS co-exist or also end up ruled by Israel.
Crossvader,
1. Your first point is chilling. But, wow.
2. Yes, the zionazis really are pretty crazy, and also not nearly as bright as they think they are. Their bluster is hot air but they don’t particularly care about confrontation because if they don’t fight themselves, they can always find someone else to do the dirty work. Yeah, they’re almost always lying but never ignore their bluster — They. Don’t. Care. What. Happens. To. Anyone. Except. Themselves.
3. Yes. There are still people desperate enough to want to emigrate here so we really haven’t a demographic death spiral, but that’s about the only indicator of decay we don’t have at this point.
4. Ukraine doesn’t exist as a topic here because Americans are stupid, self-centered and pleasure-seeking, and totally manipulated by our Zionist-owned media — and right now when it comes to foreign policy Washington’s best strategists are either dual-citizens (guess where) or sufficiently Neo-con that the sad accident of their having been born here, perhaps even of the wrong faith, has been forgiven.
“Some might find this kind of reasoning ridiculous,”
What?! The mere mental act of looking beyond the next move is ridiculous? The very concept of strategy is ridiculous?
If one is going to engage in a war of ideas, one needs to fight a war instead of playing badminton. Remove their ability to act or the shills will keep shilling, backed by the sort of institutional support very few of the rest of us have. If “transpersonal strategies of exclusion” (pace Husting) are the only legal weapon we have left, perhaps we’d better use it.
“Some” need to be d0xed, then forcefully and disproportionately ejected from the conversation as saboteurs, their IP addresses and identities published for all to see. Make them ineffective. Make them unemployable. Return their disinterest in others’ well-being threefold. Make them regret their days more than they already will.
The Democrat-Republican division is an idiotic one, making any mention Republican and Democratic presidents in a way that suggestes that their political affiliation makes a difference, utterly pointless and laughable within serious discussion. This is a political charade that does nothing but create the appearance of there being a real choice for the voters, and thus, some semblance of democracy within the American political system.
The American foreign policy – president after president, government after government – has been nothing’s but a constantly reckless, idiotic, amoral and violent freak show, that is destroying the foundations of this world. There is absolutely no difference whether it is Clinton, George Bush or Obama who is in power, because the policy does not change. There may be some differences in the actions of the successive governments, but that is as a result of the changing circumstances, and not as a result of political affiliation.
I think Russia’s latest set of moves may proove more clever than we perhaps appreciate. By asking for a deferral of the referendum, publicly, knowing full well that the anti-Nazi freedom fighters would refuse to agree – perhaps even at Russia’s behind the scenes insistence – Russia has provided irrefutable proof of these fighters not being ‘Putin’s puppets’ (not that I would find it at all morally objectionable if they were under direct control of Moscow). It has also shown to all who care to see that the West has NO interet in any form of discussion. It Is absolutely set on continuing with this reckless, violent and confrontational approach of forcing others to yield to its absolutely unacceptable demands. It cares for nothing in the remote vicinity of what is moral and rational, and its continued domination is an existential threat to all of mankind, and is is threatening the collective moral, social and civilisational fabric of the world society.
@ Saker,
Q: … Obama is trying to save the Empire, Putin is trying to bring it down…
R: I have to disagree. Obombi rains down [extra-judicial] death upon the heads of those who haven’t been convicted in a court of justice and is a tool for those who truly govern the US. Putin, imo, wants Russia to be Russia [sans empirical cravings] .
I wrote the following a while ago, and it exposes human beings’ idiocy of projecting our emotions onto everything we haven’t got a ff-ing clue about.
*******
Dolphins protect swimmer from shark @ http://www.examiner.com/article/dolphins-protect-swimmer-from-shark
Below is the actual conversation between the mammals, as picked up by a nearby, sonic buoy:
Lead Dolphin: “You guys see that great white down below?”
Rest of the pack/pod, “Uh-huh…”
Lead Dolphin: “See that dude above us?”
Rest of the pack/pod, “Uh-huh…”
Lead Dolphin, “Let’s stick with him, in case the shark comes after us…”
My view is that it will not come to the use of tactical nuclear weaponry, and the use of strategic warheads? Total impossibility, the US is crazy, not insane.
But I also see a consistent craziness there. It would rather create a hot cold war, where the attacked state hopefully gets bogged down in internal conflict, with the assistance of inside toadies.
But Russia is not Syria, and will wait to see the results of the referendum. Clearly the right sector groups want to suck Russia in the quagmire, and so far Putin has resisted the provocations.
However, if there are further massacres of civilians after May 18, I fully expect Russian tanks to roll all the way to the Dnieper, maybe even to Odessa, to create a link to other Russian speaking territories.
May should indeed, be a very interesting month.
@ Nora,
‘Small’ men like to use ‘Big’ men to do the fighting for them. Find those ‘small’ men and you’ll know why this world is so f-ed up.
Btw, where do I go to, to live in peace?
You say it yourself. There is no way NATO thinks they can suddenly win a nuclear war with Russia, and they know that a conventional war will go nuclear. The reason behind the NATO provocations must thus be found elsewhere.
The more I look into it, the more I’m sure the reason NATO made the CIA/EU coup in Ukraine, into the confrontation with Russia that it has become, the more I am sure that one of the reasons was to get the NATO members unwilling to bomb Libya, commit to joining NATO in countering the Chinese in Africa.
The eastern European states joined NATO, because they were scared of Russia, but not in order to fight colonial wars.
They thus needed to be scared back in line with the big evil bear, as they are needed on the front line, so that the coming interventions will look less like the repeat of the colonial wars of France, UK, Spain, etc.
As for Russia, the last thing the west needs, is Russia making problems by arming or supporting those NATO will be fighting.
The new NATO general secretary, the Norwegian Jens Stoltenberg, is known as a fan of “humanitarian” interventions, and Norway have no colonial history. He is also such a good friend with the Russians, that many in Norway have charged him with being a Russian spy/asset.
Mr Stoltenberg’s first task as general secretary, will thus be to make friends with Russia again, and to get the now scared E. Europeans to send troops to NATO’s new “partnership for peace” with the African Union.
At the time, I did not understand why NATO needed chaos in Libya, but once you understand that NATO is going to Africa to fight the increasing Chinese influence, it makes perfectly sense. It would be very costly to have Quadaffy arming and training African anti-western troops.
I know NATO’s general secretary is little more than a spokesperson for the generals, and that the US generals call the shots, so when Mr Rasmussen is provoking the Russians, you can be sure that no attack is being contemplated. If NATO really wanted to attack Russia, there would probably be no warning.
If you bothered to read my link yesterday, there is no way that Norway would publish in a Norwegian newspaper, that Russian nuclear subs were free to exit Murmansk undetected, if NATO really wanted ww3 with Russia. The Russians have over the horizon radar, and can see for themselves if it is true or not, that Norwegian AWACS planes are not flying.
Under the same perspective, some real economic sanctions, might be what it takes to teach both European and Russian politicians, that Russia and Europe is now so economically dependent of each other, that even a strictly economic war, means mutual assured destruction.
One more point about Stoltenberg, is that he is an economist, and although I can’t stand him personally, he did a good job with the Norwegian economy. As the dollar is dying, it is also worth noting that he is a spokesman for IMF drawing rights, that I am sure will replace the petro-dollar system, something I think he agrees with Putin on.
end part 1.
continued from part 1. Sorry if some text are repeated, as I did not remember where I cut it.
If you bothered to read my link yesterday, there is no way that Norway would publish in a Norwegian newspaper, that Russian nuclear subs were free to exit Murmansk undetected, if NATO really wanted ww3 with Russia. The Russians have over the horizon radar, and can see for themselves if it is true or not, that Norwegian AWACS planes are not flying.
Under the same perspective, some real economic sanctions, might be what it takes to teach both European and Russian politicians, that Russia and Europe is now so economically dependent of each other, that even a strictly economic war, means mutual assured destruction.
One more point about Stoltenberg, is that he is an economist, and although I can’t stand him personally, he did a good job with the Norwegian economy. As the dollar is dying, it is also worth noting that he is a spokesman for IMF drawing rights, that I am sure will replace the petro-dollar system, something I think he agrees with Putin on.
Worth noting, is that the US army is on record saying that the US deficit is the biggest danger to America, so I am pretty sure they are trying to do something with it. The problem is that the politicians are in power, and the voters in the USA don’t want to lose their dollar, nor will they do what is needed to cut the deficit. My guess is that explaining to politicians in both Europe and the USA, that IMF rights is necessary, will be Mr Stoltenberg’s second mission.
PS. I also think that the main reason the Ukraine was so corrupt, was because the different ethnic groups hated each other so much, so that they were easy prey for corrupt oligarchs.
PPS. If you really want conspiranoia, Putin might become the first leader of the North Pole Alliance, as he is the man white Americans will trust, to take down the western oligarchs and their political whores, that is hurting Europe and the USA so much. Why should Russia and the USA fight over Europe, when you could have all three cooperating?
http://www.mgaqua.net/AquaDoc/Projections/img/Polar%20Stereographic.jpg
To Sokenekos: You underestimate the “quickening” that’s happening worldwide (via non-traditional news and analysis — evidenced by THIS site and others) versus the total monopoly over news and opinion at the time of Serbia conflict. Human consciousness is waking-up to the pre-packaged MSM-fueled ZATO hedgemony. Blaming Russia for not spending its money on “PR” in Ukraine — when it’s contributed energy at a HUGE discount keeping Ukraine viable — is sort-a silly. Russia doesn’t need the Kardashians developing foreign policy over there. Let the US do that. American’s are waking-up. Much more so now than during the Serbian crisis. My 2-cents. AGS
Saker
Par excellence for this post.
This calibre of analysis is the many of us come here – it is simply not available anywhere else in such plain language.
It is information for the masses that should be known to the masses.
Thank you
Dear Saker,Zato empire doesn’t contemplate a war against Russia they are much more devious than that!What they want is to drag Russia in the quagmire of Ukraine and then destabilize her from inside.Time is pressing and in their criminal and short sighted view that is the only way out of their decline.Remember the BRICS desire to use a common currency(announced in their meeting in 2013 )and all the talk of money exchange in a currency basket that DOES NOT include the dollar or the euro?Remember the siding with Iran mainly from China-Russia?Remember the pipelines war and the threat to the zionist entity ,two things that coalesced in Syria?Remember that Iran-China-Russia took the decision back in 2006 (if I remember well) to expel Zato from Afghanistan and the date of exiting for Zusa is approaching fast(next August).Ultimately remember that the West is desperate to revive a corpse- its own- and that no one ever came back from death,except Our Lord.Because the empire is a criminal entity and has always been just that ,criminal since its inception on the genocide of the native americans,it cannot absolutely contemplate or rather digest that others as seen with Russia have build their power on the honest approach of International Law,the UN Charter and the building of a strong country based on solid relations with ROW that contemplate the interest of all sides but no war machine to goose march ROW into submission using the bs of human rights and democracy?Furthermore the empire cannot tolerate the successful economical model of Russia which assure to all at least a modicum level of life if not more.
Having said all that the danger lies in the non comprehension of the west of the Russian approach and it mistakes it for weakness and therein lies the biggest danger.In the view of ziocons and R2P ideologues to survive and resuscitate they need to destroy Russia from within a la bloody arab spring using Ukraine as a dashboard to launch a series of destabilizing attacks from the vast russian territories using “rebels”,”civil society”,and soon to be “islamist separatists”.That is their plan.
@ Another Norwegian:
WOW, I had not looked at that projection of the North Pole before. Russia OWNS up there.
I can now see why they want to prove their continental shelf includes those islands.
There’s nothing going to happen up there without the assent of Russia. Now I understand why they have been so keen on a navigable passage up there as well. A much shorter route across the top of the world than through the Med and Suez and presumably no issues with ship size.
Excellent analysis. War between Russia and the USA is crazy, no matter what the level. The end point is world anihilation.
You said “the western public is being deceived by the corporate media’s reports about the Russian paper tiger.” The media is trying but the people are, in the majority, disgusted with this administration for it’s waste of time. The next step is some awareness of the immense risks by the same numbers that oppose this insanity.
Here’s the good news. Associated Press headline:
East Ukraine’s pro-Russia insurgents will ignore Putin, hold referendum Sunday 05/08/2014 12:38:57 PM PDT0 http://tinyurl.com/pv4wufp
That’s the “out” for Putin in the corporate media (AP). There’s room to deal now that Putin is “not in control.”
Putin’s gambit may have paid off. Let’s look for a deal.
@Sokenekos
“And finally, it is the job of the Russian millitary / spec forces to defend its people — no matter where they live — which includes planning ahead in case of this or that situation.”
No matter where they live??? Excusez-moi, but propaganda like this only helps further demonize Russia and Putin. As a Russian Canadian I don’t expect or look forward to Russian protection. The last thing we need here is to be looked at as some kind of 5th column. I am a part of this society and am tied to my local community. My kids grew up here and will one day get married and have their own kids. Just because as an intelligent person I have done years of studying and research on how the world operates does not mean that I am waiting for some liberation army to save me. I understand what Putin and Russia stand for today and I truly hope they win this civilizational battle. When I criticize my government and our foreign policy I do it as a Canadian and not as a Russian. So please don’t bundle us up with Russia. It’s too bad we don’t have a leader like Putin but instead a raging red neck lunatic but this is our battle to fight as a society.
Я
Anonymous at 08 May, 2014 22:02
I have to agree. At least to the extent that what is motivating the US now is that bigger picture and the US is in serious danger of losing influence throughout the world. So far in the 21st century the US lost the war in Iraq (Iran was the winner without firing a shot), are in the process of losing in Afghanistan, made a total mess in Libya and was forced to back down in Syria. After the 2008 Georgia war, NATO gave up trying to lure in Georgia.
All of these setbacks are recognized by the rest of the world. If now, Obama and Kerry do the rational thing and allow diplomacy to solve the crisis in Ukraine the result would be require federalization and neutrality for Ukraine. That would again be seen as another defeat for the US and NATO. Russia would be perceived successfully thwarting US efforts to expand NATO, yet again.
It is very difficult to imagine any of the Western Pacific island nations feeling confident joining the US in its pivot to Asia alliance. Who in their right minds would trust US’s judgement.
That perhaps can explain why the US appears so irrational right now. This is not a position that Obama and Kerry wanted but it what circumstances have delivered to them. I doubt that right now they have any idea how to get out of this mess other than trying to not look like losers.
I like your final words: Russia has potential to gain big with little to lose. The US could lose big with little to gain.
Will Norwegian NATO honcho, Jens Stoltenberg, do a ‘Palestine’ on the Ukraine?
“Anti-Semitism means opposing us more than we deserve. The meaning of his words is that he believes that Jews deserve some of the accusations, but thinks that only Jews can say that“ @ http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/155307
The only way the yahoos in Kieve can keep themselves in power is to agree to elections/referendum and “make nice:”
Since they will not do this, Putin wins. He just has to wait for the Ukraine to implode economically under the IMF “rescue” (check out the book by Naomi Klein called Disaster Capitalism to see how the IMF operates in Latin America). Or if the Kiev folks are really, really stupid they will commit an even more horrendous massacre than the undercover one they did in Odessa last week. “`
@ Another Norwegian,
NATO is our lap dancing poodle. We wanted AFRICOM so bad, but that ff-ing ‘towel head Muammar Gaddafi kept harping on about ‘one African nation’ and that ff-ing ‘Gold Dinar’ to replace ‘our’ ff-ing $$$, so…, we brought ‘freedom’ to his country… and now we’re working our way into that continent [sideways].
‘We’ [the Western world] can’t just shed that colonial ‘Massa’ skin in a jiffy. The commonwealth rules the world [for now], but by the time BRICS start flying, we’re all f-ed.
RIA Novosti in Russian reports that today a group of men in black uniforms without insignia but with St. George ribbons torched a customs office at Ivarino, on the Russian-Ukrainian border, then fled toward the Ukraine ( http://ria.ru/world/20140508/1007049162.html ). We may have just seen a new Gleiwitz incident, where a group of Nazi soldiers in Polish uniforms on August 31, 1939, attacked the German radio station at Gleiwitz, serving as the casus belli for the Nazi attack on Poland the next day, initiating Words War II (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gleiwitz_incident). It’s been predicted for some time. Ivarino is on the border of Lugansk Olast’ and Russia, at 48 17’23” North, 39 53’24” East ( http://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/Изварино_(Луганская_область) ).
From RT:
19:47 GMT:
An initiative to organise “round tables of the national unity” has been announced by the coup-installed Kiev officials. According to Itar-Tass, the acting president Aleksandr Turchinov and the interim Prime Minister Arseny Yatsenyuk want to use the OSCE experience in the dialogue. Such issues as decentralization of political power, reforms in local government, court system and law enforcement, as well as protection of minorities are planned to be raised. Turchinov and Yatsenyuk say they invite all political forces from all regions to join their initiative. At the same time, they say there are no plans to stop the military operation in the south-east of Ukraine.
16:18 GMT:
2,000 police officers will patrol the streets of Odessa on May 9. The civil forces will do their best to prevent any incidents on Victory Day, its representative in the Odessa region has told Interfax-Ukraine agency. On May 2, dozens of people were killed and hundreds injured in mass clashes in Odessa. Several people including senior officials of Odessa’s militia have been arrested as part of the investigation.
Betcha (a big) part of the reason Kiev won’t stop operations in the South-East and sent Pravy Sektor to Odessa is that they’re scared of these guys too and wanat to keep them as divided up and far away as possible. Those who live by the sword…
Daniel Rich,
“where do I go to, to live in peace?” Damned if I know. Iceland maybe?
To: Nora
I thought, since you are an avid reader, that I would suggest some books that–if you haven’t read– you might find of interest as background. One is “Zionism in the Time of Dictators”. I learned a good deal from it, including much on the great Polish strike of 1937 against the “Colonels” after the death of Pilsudski. The strike came agonizingly close to forcing them out; had it done so(or had Pilsudski lived a few more years) the history of Europe would have been quite different. You also get a look, in reasonable depth,of the political movements– sush as “Sons of the Iron Wolf”flourishing in the Baltics. They remind me, not a little, of the upsurge in the western Ukraine.
Perhaps, the best of all the (often brain sickening) books I have read about World War One, though it concerns the Western rather than Eastern front, is “In Flanders Fields” by Leon Wolff. In some respects the most revealing content is found in the forwards by the two chief developers and theorists of armored warfare, General BFC Fuller and BH Lidell Hart.Of all who were exposed to their ideas the only people–to Fullers immense disgust–who really “got” them were the Germans and one British officer, Hobart,exiled to Palestine,. There, however, he found a protege,O’Connel. Hence the stunning and–as war goes–not very bloody rout of the Italian Army in the first phase of the North African campaigne. Churchill, with his usual stupidity, prevented O’Connel from capturing Tripoli and finishing the Italians before Rommel could get there. I mention this because Ukraine is congenial terrain to armored (blitzkreig) tactics.
Well,Dog wants her 4 mile walk.Must carry on like a good butler.
Nora said…08 May, 2014 22:26
“will the BRICS co-exist or also end up ruled by Israel.”
China remains independent of the zionazis. They have not made much progress usurping that establishment. Doubtful zionazis run Russia, at least not like they’d like to, or they wouldn’t be so anal about trying to drive Russia into the ground. The rest of BRICS I don’t know.
In my opinion, in finance, zionazi power is dependent of the dollar or the euro being the dominant currency, so a multipolar economic situation, without dollar/euro dominance is not acceptable to them, and they bring all their quislings and assets to fight it. This, I think, explains why the USA and EU are desperately trying to bring Russia down now. Russia provides the much of the resources, tech and defense that China and the rest of BRICS/multipolars need. Without Russia, the independent will be too weak to fight off the zionazi’s quislings.
Tom Garrett,
Thank you. My list is getting soooo long, but I’ll get there eventually! And I certainly understand the importance of doggie-walking! One of ours snarfed down 10 oz. (!) of raisins (major-league killer of canine kidneys — let me warn everyone on that!) two days ago and we’re just hoping we’ll be able to walk him again. (so far, so good, kinda).
Another Norwegian said…
As the dollar is dying, it is also worth noting that he is a spokesman for IMF drawing rights, that I am sure will replace the petro-dollar system, something I think he agrees with Putin on.
This deserves much more attention than it’s getting. The article below gives a good overview of SDRs (special drawing rights) and their likely role as the new global fiat.
This is a much bigger game than we commonly acknowledge. We might be witnessing the final round of negotiations for the NWO. The conflicts in Ukraine, Syria, Africa and elsewhere are part of a scramble for influence within the new global currency system.
As Another Norweigian describes it, the Anglo-Zionists want to keep Europe tied down militarily and politically as their economic influence continues it’s rapid decline. A new Cold War serves this objective.
Maybe the Empire has no plan ‘b’ because they don’t really need one. Maybe everything is going exactly according to plan with the primary difference between Russia and the West being that of conflicting priorities between producer economies led by Russia and rent seeking economies like that of the US, an argument I’ve made before.
In which case Obama and Putin are indeed in cahoots, as Mohamed likes to say.
IMF Bailout for Ukraine and a New World Currency
http://www.thenewamerican.com/economy/item/18207-imf-bailout-for-ukraine-and-a-new-world-currency
@crossvader”Russia is far more comfortable in acting alone, rarely seeks support of other parties, and usually is not terribly rattled by its relative isolation.”
That’s foolish, Russia must cling to China and vice versa. Otherwise they will be separated and picked off. At the very least. And encourage relationships with S. America, as well, who are fed up with the Monroe Doctrine.
The first I’ve a question to yall since I’ve got informations that the radar shutdown in LA wasn’t from the U2 but instead of that it was Russia technology which did the work, so does anybody have more infos about this? It looks like that the Russians have the ability to turn of the american radar systems whenever they want.
And Saker one point to mention please, if any conflict between USA and Russia will start, maybe this could be a good chance for Northkorea to test if there missis are able to reach american soil…
@As for whether the AngloZionist plutocracy of the 1% who rule over us has gone completely crazy – your guess is as good as mine.
We should give more thought to this possibility. It appears that the Anglo-Zionist plutocracy is thoroughly imbued, nay, intoxicated with what was called “Zion theology” and Apocalyptic Ideology. A few quoatations from an excelent study would explain better this point (Ancient Israelite Zion Theology, Judeo-Christian Apocalypticism,
And Biblical (Mis) Interpretation: Potential Implications for the
Stability of the Modern Middle East, by Taylor Halverson):
“What were the causes that led to the catastrophic defeat and destruction (of the Kigdom of Judah first and of the second destruction of the Temple by the Romans)?…(It) had to do with the misinterpretation and
misapplication of a popular theological notion, Zion theology, which led many of the leaders and people of Judah to believe that they were impervious to Babylonian
threats. God was on their side; not even the Babylonians could assail such an awesome power. This misinterpretation of a theological concept contributed to Judeans severely misreading the political and military situation of their day and thus helped to precipitate the very crisis Zion theology ostensibly promised to avert…. In essence, Zion theology comprised three core, though originally independent but mutually
reinforcing, beliefs. First, God had made eternal promises regarding the perpetuity of
the Davidic dynasty. Davidic kings were God’s anointed earthly representatives. Though relevant to Zion theology, not least because the idea of eternal kingship of the Davidic line was related to the eternal kingship of God at his temple, this paper will
primarily focus on the next two aspects of Zion theology. Second, God had chosen Zion (i.e., Jerusalem) as his earthly abode and that evidence was visibly manifest through the physical structure of the Jerusalem temple, the symbol of God’s enduring presence. As long as the temple stood, God’s glory was undeniably there. Third,God was a divine warrior who provided unassailable protection against all antagonistic forces natural or human. This protection was believed to extend from the
temple to encompass the entire city of Jerusalem and by extension all her citizens…. In a nutshell, apocalyptic thinking in the Christian theological tradition assumes that
the end of the world is soon to happen when in the midst of terrible suffering and
chaos God will come, destroy evil and suffering, and lift up the oppressed and the righteous to live in peace. This Christian idea derives in part from Israelite
theological Zion traditions…. There is a long historical trajectory of apocalyptic theology among biblical interpreters, much of it misguided”.
But there is also a long trajectory among politicians. Both Reagan and Bush jr, were fond of apocalyptical quotations. We are talking here of severely deranged people. They believe that Gog-Magog from the land of Rosh (Russia) must and can be destroyed, because they are really just “paper tigers”!
It seems like the nuclear option, which was what your article was about, is being avoided by most of the commenters here. I once heard a speech by the late US Senator Edmund Muskie, where he said that Sven the explosion of a single nuclear bomb would be the worst possible disaster for any modern political leaders. I don’t want to believe that either Obama or Putin would ever fight a nuclear war.
A few observations.
The Georgian army was not NATO trained in any meaningful way. The units that served in Iraq had communications training so that they could work with other forces.
Russia did not give Ukraine a huge discount on gas in any meaningful way. Ukraine was already paying the highest prices in Europe for Russian gas. There was a huge discount from the pricing formula. The pricing formule is based on the market price of crude oil, as there is no functioning market in gas. This is what Lavrov and others mean by “market pricing”. It is a fabrication.
The US has already won. It has separated most of Ukraine from Russia. It has separated the EU from Russia which is even more important strategically. The EU28 is the world’s biggest economy without adding the EEA and Turkey. The US will shortly fall to third place. The US needs an unstable Ukraine/East Europe to keep NATO alive (the US pays 73% of the combined NATO budgets). The US has not further interest in Ukraine. The EU on the other hand will do better with a peaceful prosperous Ukriane. However, all future senarios leave the oligarchs in place to continue playing the differing nationalisms against each other. The oilgarchs gain in almost any likely scenario. Default and or partition will drive the prices of remaining Ukranian state assets even further down.
Poland doubled its GDP with shock therapy. Ukraine can probably do teh same. However, the post EU frowth in Poland;s econamy cost €150m to add about as much GDP again. Poland’s GDP/haed is now 62% of the EU average. No one is interested in supporting Ukraine like that and the most expensive part will be the Donbass. Add to the financial burden that any external power taking over some part of the Ukraine will inherit an Ulster on a giant scale. Even in the Donbass, there are supporters of Parliament. In the Centre and the Carpathians there are seperatists and federalists, now radicalized.
Russias military is now a decade + into its upgrade programs
and new gen roll out.
Numerous weapon systems which are designed for the home game
as US NATO will have to play this one on the road
like ww 2 germany….both are to dependent on max sophisticated
weapon systems….the kind which faint….as attrition cycle of war
knocks them out.
Russia knows its opponents will be challenged on the logistic side
the attrition ratio set highly favors Russia
Notice how Russian techs put upgrade to 2 types of Syrian aircraft with
capability to go out into the med and zap the US or NATO ships
with stand off strike package…..which would rip the headlines and
make the Argentine airforce hold a Syria kicked their ass…..party!
Obama blinked……cuz the fist was very real…
The US wants the cold war….military industrial complex diversion
as they must rotate their military……and keep the sheeple back home
in the usual MK Ultra.
If war does occur….say late 2020’s…..2030’s…….Russia will
win it….with the epic fail empire of the Venetian trash exhuasted
and hopefully….the end of the f’ng trash and their zionist insanity
Russia will calmly position what it needs vs the nato frontier
knowing it can erase their chess pieces…..
US NATO aircraft will not run around over Russia like some novel
They will not escape the box…..
The future war will be fast turns with high attrition ratios
US NATO at least have their media clean up in isle#5 ready
back home….silent wonder…..for the many missing in action
@AGS
Oh, I only wish you’re right. But, ouch! The key word is “majority” of the western public. What you’re proposing might be true in some near future, but for the moment I doubt it. No discussion how valuable this blog is and the similar ones, but their impact isn’t as great as we dream of.
For a crime of this proportion to succeed, besides the psychopaths at the top & at the bottom of the social strata, you need a passive middle which does . . . nothing. Is there a better example than the “I don’t care” zombified US population under narcosis of the ziomedia / zioacademia / ziolobbies? Europe is different, but powerless & occupied by it’s former colony.
Sorry for using the odious “PR” term. I meant, if Russia only invested in disputing the zionazi propaganda in Ukraine, e.g., making people over there believing they deserve oil & gass from Russia for free – due to all the “evil” done to the “nation” in the past, etc., today the fight would have been in Kiev, or better, in Galicia. Believe me, I know what I’m talking about. In Serbia, literally all media is under zionazi control, & it does more damage then the zato bombing did. Yet, Russia doesn’t have a single one! Hoping that the public in the West will understand who is doing what in Ukraine & why, is wrong, me thinks.
But we can speculate like this here for a week of Sundays knowing only a portion of what Putin & his advisers know, & given what he has done so far, we can only pray he does what’s right asap! Relying on the consciousness of the average western guy, however, gives no hope.
Respect!
@ Daniel Rich
“NATO is our lap dancing poodle. We wanted AFRICOM so bad, but that ff-ing ‘towel head Muammar Gaddafi “
As long as it is peace, NATO does what the USA wants, but if any NATO member come under non-NATO influence, is threatened by civil war, or becomes totalitarian, NATO is obliged to take over.
If the generals are as racist as many think they are, an alliance of white people in the North Pole Alliance would be something they want happen.
I don’t buy this though, but I have NO access to classified information, so I really have no idea of what is true. I do however now that the best way to hide something, is out in the open, and that the NATO-members are mutually obliged to help NATO take over, if it becomes totalitarian, subverted or threatened by civil war.
I told a Norwegian officer about this, expecting that he would be surprised, and got the answer that this is some of the first thing they learn at the war academy, as it is public information.
Any form of communism or nazism is by definition totalitarian, but I bet the Privy Sector in the Ukraine don’t know, that while they might have the support of the CIA before a NATO membership, they will be brought down with extra judicial means, if they become NATO members.
As for Breivik, I don’t think he was working for anyone. He understood correctly that all forms of nationalism was taken down in Norway, but he thought it was because the Labor Party decided it, and not because ethno-nationalism was defined as nazism, and thus something totalitarian that Norway were obliged to strangle, before they became a threat.
That Norway chose to strangle them completely, to the degree that not a single ethno-nationalist org was left for Breivik to join, is FMPOV the reason the government had no idea he existed.
When it comes to the pro-zionist stuff, it was his way to damage the zio-run muslim haters, as he really is an ethno-nationalist. This part worked quite well, since every public persona, except Kevin McDonald, fell for it.
@Anonimous from Canada
I do apologize for a hasty formulation, I meant anywhere on the territory of the former USSR – especially if Russians are exposed to this kind of violence. After all, I view this mayhem in the Ukraine as a Russia’s internal problem for, it was Russia proper for almost a milenium.
Good luck in influencing any Canada’s decisions apropos Russia! Yet, I think your chances are exactly zero. We all know who runs the show over there: the “chosen ones.”
WizOz said…
It appears that the Anglo-Zionist plutocracy is thoroughly imbued, nay, intoxicated with what was called “Zion theology” and Apocalyptic Ideology.
This is absolutely correct. ‘Zion’ theology, as you call it, is the religion of the Anglo-Zionist plutocracy. It is an apocalyptic belief system grounded in the Abrahamic tradition. Over centuries our religious values have been programmed according to the needs and values of the most powerful people. I think this is critical to understanding what lies behind the curtain.
For example, in Catholicism, any crime will be forgiven so long as it is confessed. Who benefits from that belief system?!
No significant time will ever be spent discussing the so-called losers of history including their modern day equivalents in Palestine or CAR, with one significant exception: victims of the holocaust.
The plutocrats have adopted or maintained the religious notion of ‘chosen-ness’ for themselves. The holocaust represents their greatest fear. They believe their own ‘superiority’ is a genetically encoded birthright. This, they believe, excuses them from moral responsibility for crimes against lesser, genetically inferior beings.
We need to learn to recognize this if we are to defend ourselves from the hyper technologically enabled ideology of top-down social parasitism. We are being programmed, as we have been since the time of the first pictographs, to be slaves. Only now the technology of social control is incomprehensibly more sophisticated than it was when most of our knowledge was contained in books.
Your every dream of liberation, as it is taught to you, is another path to enslavement — and always to the same people.
The Zion theology is engrained into every aspect of our thinking and it perpetuates the wilfull exploitation and destruction of history’s so-called losers.
So then let’s think of what Putin represents, as the consummate anti-Anglo-Zionist.
On the surface, it is true, Obama and Putin are in cahoots. They both seek to a transit to the new global currency system without destroying their own economies. Basically they are ‘freinds’ out of pure self interest. In the end both prefer a stable transition.
This does not mean they are actually working together or preclude them from representing diametrically opposed value systems, as they do. Obama favours the values of the Anglo-Zionist rent collectors. Putin represents the values of the producers, including their religious values.
This, to me, is the over arching context in which we all modern politics must be placed. The Anglo-Zionists prefer you do not understand that you are a slave. Putin appears to favour overturning this.
I want to add one more idea to this regarding the Russian soul. Few people in the West understand the psychological differences between Russians and themselves. 90% of modern Russians are decendants of people who were ‘serfs’ barely more than a century ago. Obviously this affects how they interact with the rest of the world and especially the hyper individualistic West. I believe it is the source of their strength.
Putin sees the threat of Judaic hyper-individualism and is prepared to confront it. This makes him a friend to all of those who oppose exploitation without regard to cost, human or otherwise.
@ Another Norwegian,
Q: ….but I have NO access to classified information, so I really have no idea of what is true.
R: You’re not alone. Fortunately I have something called HUMINT [ppl in various countries and on various continents], so, occasionally I get info that flies in the face of what is sold as reality/truth at that particular moment in time. But that’s mostly what they see themselves out in the open, whatever is brewed behind closed doors…, no clue.
The good thing about this site is that I get a host of links I would normally not have seen/found. So, the extra info’s great.
side note: When I was in Thailand, I saw this almost visible animosity between Swedes and Norwegians. Do you know why that is [provided it happens back home too]?
“Good luck in influencing any Canada’s decisions apropos Russia! Yet, I think your chances are exactly zero. We all know who runs the show over there: the “chosen ones.” “
Somebody is going to become the scapegoat for the fall of the dollar, the fall of the white middle class, 911, the holohoax, the holodomor, genocidal immigration to white nations, the Russian revolution and the more modern rape of Russia, etc, and that is going to be somebody that is guilty as hell.
That the “chosen ones” don’t see this, but continue to push for more wealth and power, just boggles my mind. The Jews used to have another place to escape, where the people were not Jew aware yet, but where are they going to go now?
Israel, surrounded as it is by one billion angry Muslims?
This might be of interest:
“Russia And The Ukraine – The Worrisome Connection To World Oil And Gas Problems” –
@ http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-05-08/russia-and-ukraine-%E2%80%93-worrisome-connection-world-oil-and-gas-problems
Saker, if Kiev was supplied with a few tactical nuclear devices would they use them to keep power?
I have read lots of your post here. You have all talked about money, and war.
I like to look at it this way, America can not fight Russia, Russia can not fight America.
So how do you keep this war from happing on the world.
You show the People of Russia what it is to be free.
Ukraine is a puppet. They have seen freedom and now want it.
If Ukraine becomes free, then they will know freedom, and it will spread into Russia.
Russia can not use nukes on it own people. If the people of Russia one day rise up and fight for there own freedom.
How do you win world war three, only the people of Russia can even stop it.
Putin understands what is happing in Ukraine, and he knows if he dose not stop it in Ukraine. Then the people of Russia will one day taste freedom.
Russia now has to fight, or face a future where the people will be free.
This is why Russia must use force in Ukraine, and why the United States, and the UE, can not let them.
There is only two outcomes for the world, we live in peace as one people, or we all die in war.
Do you think the United States would go down, and not take every enemy on this world with them?
The United States has lots of nukes, they are not all pointed at Russia.
So Russia now has to make a choice, do you kill the world, or do you move with the rest of it into the future.
Putin is backed into a wall, if tries try to take over Ukraine, the United States can break Russia, and let his own people rise up.
So now he faces only three options. Go Broke, start a war, or move toward freedom.
The world in time will see his answer.
If he starts a war, then he will be seen on the worlds stage as a killer of the world.
If he shifts his country toward being a free people, then his rich will take care of him.
The only real move I can see, is if he stays in his country and waits, in hopes that in the future, freedom dose not find his people. But with a free country next door, it would only be a matter of time.
Freedom is what will win world war three.
Not a country.
For a good laugh – Russians dress up their cars to celebrate for Victory Day:
http://www.autoevolution.com/news/russian-cars-dressed-as-tanks-for-victory-day-photo-gallery-81008.html
Regards,
CS
I suggest reading this guy:
http://yurasumy.livejournal.com/
So far, he has been amazingly insightful…
Mr. Where_Wolf @09 May, 2014 04:15
Maybe I’d add some “colour”, but otherwise I would like to have written that myself.
Mr. Another Norwegian @09 May, 2014 04:26
Ditto.
Erebus
I posted my last long comment before reading the comments posted after about midnight.
Some cracking and thought-provoking stuff there from Sokenekos, Where-wolf and others.
Thanks
Thanks Saker, for the effort and intelligent analysis you offer in this blog.
May I raise two questions:
1. Does the Anglozionist cabal controlling western politics and media want to neutralise Russian ability to thwart aggressive pro-Israel wars in the Middle East, particularly Syria, by demonising Putin and by bringing an insoluble problem to his doorstep?
2. Has Putin got an economic weapon against the Anglozionist cabal by undermining the petrodollar, or could protection of the petrodollar be the even the main reason to initiate the attempted fragmentation of Russia?
Grateful for your perspective and that of the community.
Gerry M
Good points you raised in your post and I too think has a lot to do with the way the americans and their satellites are now throwing the world into instability. The american national debt is now too great for them to ever pay off and the only way for their economy to remain afloat is by the federal reserve printing dollars like there is no tomorrow, and they can only carry on doing this as long as the $ remains the world reserve currency.
Saddam Hussein wanted to start trading his countrys oil in euros instead of the dollar and Iraq was swiftly invaded. Likewise Ghaddafi in Libya wanted to start trading his countries oil in gold and the hounds of hell were let lose on him. Now both China and Russia are moving more and more of their international trade away from the american dollar and I strongly feel we are going to see the same reaction from the americans that we have been seeing in Iraq and Libya with the big difference being that these two countries can actually defend themselves and are nuclear powers. It doesnt bode well for the future of mankind. Are the americans crazy enough to escalate this to open warfare ? Only time will tell, but maybe they feel they have nothing to lose and everything to gain by doing so, and never mind the millions of people in Europe and Russia who will lose their lives by doing so.
Dear Saker, I think that your latest post is genuinely brilliant. Your arguments as to why enhanced alert and multiple capacity make things safer rather than more dangerous are compelling.
There is, however, one use of nuclear that might be used without triggering mutual destruction. This is through resort to the Compton effect or EMP. What if Russia, hard pressed economically, taking the worst of it in non-nuclear engagements said:”Back off! If you don’t we will detonate a nuclear bomb of x capacity, over the Arabian peninsula at height and position for the pulse to strike the major Saudi oil fields and the adjacent Emirates. The button need only be pushed.”
What if this was actually done? Would the response be in kind? Have you thought much about this scenario?
We are now, with the permafrost beginning to emit methane– the clathrate stored on continental shelves will soon begin emit as well–facing a now inescapable planetary calamity. The drought now bringing multiple fires to the Urals and much of Siberia, huge dust clouds to Iran, dessication to Syria and the Becaa valley are one comparatively early manifestation.
A nuclear exchange poisoning the earth’s surface is to be feared above all else. Conventional War leading to meltdown of nuclear installations, such as Zaporozhe or the one on the Dneister, could poison huge areas. But is it possible that a high altitude exchange might impose a brake on industrial civilization’s destruction of the living planet? Something to wonder about.
At least, after two years drought and fires, it’s raining here. Good night.
Quoting myself:
> assuming I’m right that they tried NOT to get Russia involved
There goes my assumption, which I admittedly shared with only few people, except for the blind pro-NATO pro-putsch crowd.
> On Wednesday, a source within the Ukrainian security services, warned RIA about the planned provocations by members of the Right Sector reportedly coordinated by Ukraine’s Security Services. According to the source a special body guard unit of Dnepropetrovsk governor Igor Kolomoysky was sent from Kiev to Donetsk to help the Right Sector stage attacks on the border crossings disguised as the Russian military. Furthermore, the staged attacks were to be taped, as to provide false evidence of Russian involvement. The group of about 20 men reportedly transported a cargo of about 200 sets of Russian military uniforms as well as about 70 blank Russian military IDs, according to the source.
Well, it might not have gotten Russia involved, but it might have “forced” the EU to sever ties with Russia – the same effect a Russian military intervention would probably produce, only cheaper.
Honk
On ground level, the smart political moves by President Putin is exactly what he is doing now : Patient and peaceful in the yes of the world .. letting Ukrainians in the East decide for themselves if they want to secede and become a sovereign state. Afterall, there is currently no legitimate government in Kiev and therefore no Constitutional Government in place. Ukrainians are therefore free to decide for themselves what they want.
Thus if the referendum in the Donbass is that the Ukrainians there want to become an independent state, President Putin and the Duma will recognize it. Afterall, all political legitimacy comes from the will of the people. Who can truly be against that?
Secondly, if the Republic of Donesk request military assistance from Russia, it is again a legitimate request. There is NOTHING the illegal terroristic government in Kiev can do.
Smart savy politics suggest that the Republic of Donesk and Russia, let it stay this way until things cools down and the international spotlight moves away from Ukraine. Then, the ROD votes for merger with mother Russia with reciprocal acceptance by Russia’s Duma.
Patience is THE key. 2 years? 5 years, … it does not matter. The spotlight will not hover over Ukraine forever.
Meantime, the rest of East Ukraine and Odessa, do the same. Referendums are more powerful than brute force insofar as international acceptance and recognition is concerned.
The key strategic questions have always been how to drown a drowning man with the minimum of blowback, or whether a drowning man suits the purpose.
Within therse strategic options the questions are if so, how and when.
It is an interactive process neither restricted to the now nor the where.
Now is the proper day to say to all citizens of countries formerly included in the Soviet Union
С День Победы !
Greetings to all from this French citizen.