According to
information published in the Russian press, it has now appeared that the union of Professional Navy Officers has written to President Medvedev no less than 4 (four!) times to demand the dismissal of Defense Minister Serdiukov.
“It would be wrong to say that we supported the paratroopers. Even before the incident with the Airborne Forces, 14 September, we sent a fourth letter to Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, to draw his attention to the distressing situation of retired military personnel and the situation in the army in general “, – said Navy Captain A. Krasik. He noted that the sailors are not interested in conflict Serdyukov with Colonel Krasov. “This is a mundane issue, it is of no interest to us, we are more interested in what Serdyukov has turned the armed forces into his joint-stock company”, – said chairman of the Union of Professional Navy Officers. “We do not demand the resignation of a Serdyukov, the people are demanding this, and we are simply supporting their demands. People like Serdyukov come and go, but for the fact that he had disarmed state and destroyed the military infrastructure, Serdyukov should be subjected to criminal prosecution “, – concluded A. Krasik.
Wow! And the totally useless press in the so-called “West” is totally missing these amazing events…
Let’s sum things up so far:
1) The military inteligence (GRU) hates Serdiukov
2) The Spetsnaz hate Serdiukov
3) The Airborne Forces hate Serdiukov
4) The Navy hates Serdiukov
Well, something tells the rest of the armed forces are not exactly in love with that overweight swine either.
I can tell you who is quite happy with Serdiukov: the Ministry of Internal Affairs (MVD) forces since they get all the money which is taken away from the Military. (The MVDshniki have been spent on lavishly since Putin and Medvedev came to power). Them, and the FSB (ex-KGB) of course, the alma mater of Putin.
Amusingly, the street cops are also pissed too since they are increasingly put under pressure by the regime for their corruption, abuses of power, drunken accidents, abuse of suspects, etc. The MVD+FSB duo has been cracking down on them pretty strongly in the recent months.
Anyway, I wonder who in the armed forces will be next to openly speak up against Serdiuko?
Make no mistake – the Kremlin has enough resources and power in the MVD+FSB structures not to have to fear a real open rebellion military. If they want, they can crack down on it and organize a grandiose purge in 24 hours. But Russia is not the Soviet Union any more, and there is a real risk of political backlash. The public opinion cannot be simply ignored as it was in the Soviet era and, just like in the USA, the military represents a (potentially) formidable *political* force which can make things very bad for the current regime. This is why I believe that Serdiukov’s days as Minister of Defense are numbered. He will be probably “promoted” to some cozy (and well paid) position way from the military.
I will try to keep you posted.
The Saker
While Putin and Medvedev put someone universally hated by the military as Defense Minister, they are also making unprecedented (since the fall of the USSR) expenditures for the Armed Forces: Russia plans to spend 19 trillion rubles till 2020 to get new weapons, that is more than 630 billion dollars to be spent in 10 years, a lot of money for Russia. And this is just for procurement of new weapons. If their purpose is to weaken the military, why spend such a huge amount of resources?
I think Serdyukov was hired to make deep reforms in the military, to create truely post-Soviet armed forces for Russia, and that is why they chose someone who didn’t have a military background: he has no prejudices, no relations, and it would be easier to make deep (and sometimes painful) changes.
But surely, the plan backfired, and Serdyukov largely screwed up things. Earlier today there were rumours that he had resigned or that Putin ordered him fired, but these were soon dismissed.
@Russia plans to spend 19 trillion rubles till 2020 to get new weapons, that is more than 630 billion dollars to be spent in 10 years, a lot of money for Russia
True, but God only knows *why* the money is really being spent. I mean, I agree that all branches of the armed forces need modernization and reorganization, no argument here, but I would argue that the Airborne Forces or the Spetsnaz are not the place to mess with since they are the ones who perform the best. I actually find many of the suggested reforms very good, going to a Brigade system (except for the Airborne Forces) makes sense, reducing the levels of commands, procuring new aircraft makes sense, reducing the number of Military Districts makes sense, converting Air Regiments into Bases makes sense, etc. I don’t have a beef with the reforms as such, but going after the Airborne and Special Forces is a really bad idea since THEY are the ones who will make the main contribution BY FAR in any realistically foreseeable military conflict. The fact is that there is no country out there which can seriously think of waging a conventional or, even much less so, nuclear war on Russia. So the kind of conflicts the Russians need to concern themselves with are local in the Caucasus and, to a lesser degree, Central Asia. That is where the Airborne Troops and Spetsnaz are most needed. Mind you, the total size Airborne Forces under Serdiukov and Shamanov has actually *INCREASED*, and they are getting new equipment (BMD-4, UAVs, Sprut-SD, night vision gear, etc. etc.). I don’t know how the Spetsnaz are doing (they are way too secret for that). So, again, not all that is going on is wrong, but what is also happening is that Serdiukov is trying to abolish the “special status”, uniqueness, of the Airborne Forces to turn them more into a part of the regular Ground Forces and that is a crucial mistake. The “desantniki” are not only a separate branch of the armed forces, they are very much a different *culture*, with a totally different and separate ethos and “esprit de corps” which simply cannot be messed with. They are, in fact, much closer to the Spetsnaz than they are to the Ground Forces or Air Force and they should be allowed to be kept separate. ALL they are asking for is to be left with their own identity and for that they are willing to accomplish feats which I believe no Paratroopers on the planet would be capable, or willing, to accomplish. The “desantniki” take the their motto “никто кроме нас” (nobody but us) quite seriously and the Kremlin has always called upon them when the shit hit the fan. But to mess with their most sacred values AND ask them to the ultimate sacrifice is just impossible. That is a fundamental “strategic” decision which the Kremlin will have to make.
And, mind you, don’t expect the various cops (OMON or the various so-called “Spetsnaz MVD”) to do the Paratroopers job. When things turn ugly, its also “nobody but them” and they know that.
This is why the nomination of Serdiukov was a grievous mistake: as a civilian, he simply does not understand any of this. No real military man in Russia would have treated this very delicate issue the way that moron did.
Whatever his initial intentions were, he needs to go before the next conflict starts, be it in Georgia, Latvia, Kyrgyzstan or Tadjikistan.