Revisiting Russian objectives in the Ukraine

Check out this list of headlines, all from one source only, RT and all from the past week or so:

Some are only “more of the same” (like the Ukronazis making the Aussies ban Russian flags at the Open), some are rather disgusting (like the Ukronazi blogger who wants to exterminate the Russian people), some are revolting (like the French warning 5000 Russian graves that “their concession is expiring”!), some are hilarious (like the idea of bust of “Ze” at the Capitol building), some are outright crazy (like the idea of a “Ukraine peace summit” without Russian participation). Some are weird but encouraging (like the Kentucky gubernatorial candidate, a Democrat, calling for an impeachment of Biden for war crimes). But some are very, very serious indeed (like the increase of the size of the Russian military to 1.5M or the fact that both the General Milley and Defense Minister Shoigu visiting their troops at the same time.

One could certainly say that these headlines are “signs of the time” (“but can ye not discern the signs of the times?” Matt 16:2-3), but what does this all mean?

First, these headlines are like a snapshot of the West’s collective insanity. Please keep in mind that the past week was no more and no less rich in crazy ideas and statements than previous weeks. This snapshot is what one could call the “West’s homeostasis” or, in other words, that is the norm, the stable mental condition in which the West operates. Future historians, assuming the AngloZionists freaks in power allow us to have a future other than a nuclear apocalypse, will marvel at the collective insanity which overcame an entire continent.

Second, both the rabid #CancelRussia mass phenomenon and the discussions about sending NATO weapons, including MBTs, fighter aircraft, SAMs and the like are an expression of the same impotent rage felt by the leaders of the West. And headlines like this one “Russian economy doing much better than expected (…)” The financial results for 2022 have exceeded many forecasts, the president [Putin] says” certainly do not help.

The obvious danger here is that frustrated, hate-filled people are typically not capable of rational decision-making. Let’s, for example, take the “clever” idea of sending the Ukronazis (well, NATO, really) more tanks or aircraft. If you look at the numbers discussed, they are so small as to make no difference. But once you sent them to the Ukraine and they get destroyed by Russian missiles, what do you do next? Send more?

It took the Russians about one month to basically destroy the (original) Ukrainian armed forces.

Then it has taken Russia about 9 months to destroy most hardware of the former Warsaw Treaty Organization (no, it is *not* called a “Pact” – that is pure propaganda and why not call NATO the Atlantic Pact by the same logic?). The sad part here is that in the process of destroying all that WTO kit, Russia had no choice but to inflict horrendous casualties with Ukrainian KIA/MIA going well into the several hundred of thousands. “Ze” sent wave after wave after wave of mobilized men straight into the Russian meat-grinder with no chance of prevail and very little chance of survival.

It might take Russia a year or more to fully destroy all the hardware (and “volunteers”) sent by NATO. Russia is certainly making plans for a long and major war, hence the re-creation of the Moscow and Leningrad Military Districts (you can think of them as “fronts” once a war starts) or the massive increase in weapons procurement up to and including strategic deterrence forces (nuclear and conventional).

Right now, Russia seems to be focusing on destroying the (comparatively) better trained units of the mixed NATO-Ukronazi forces in the eastern Ukraine. The Russian strategy is very simple: Russia can kill NATO soldiers and hardware faster than NATO can provide reinforcements. Obviously, this is only a temporary situation, and there are three groupings of Russian forces (North, East, South) all along the frontlines which can intervene at any time and give Russia something she never had since the initiation of the SMO: a full combined arms offensive and a numerical superiority over the other side.

Most knowledgeable observers, such as Col Maggregor, believe that a Russian offensive is all but certain. Wars can be very unpredictable, and Putin does have a genius ability to act in unpredictable ways, so I would not say that this offensive is absolutely certain, but I agree that it is highly likely. However, such an offensive is not risk free.

In purely military terms, there is no force on the European continent which could take on the Russian forces currently aligned along the Ukrainian border. In political terms, there is a major issue for Russia: any terrain that she liberates will have to be protected.

During the first phase of the SMO, the Russians sent in a comparatively small force, which did great in combat against the Ukronazis, but which did not hold ground (which you never do in economy of force and maneuver warfare), resulting into absolutely awful optics including:

The perception that Russia promises to come and protect the people she liberated only to then abandon them.
The perception that the Russians retreated because of Ukronazi military successes.

The fact that neither of these statements is quite true does not help as they are “close enough” to the truth to sound convincing. As a result, the Russian side completely lost control of the narrative, for a while even inside Russia! It took the appointment of Surovikin to reassure the Russian public that while mistakes were made (including in the early phase of the war or during the mobilization), those mistakes would be addressed and corrected. Now with the Russian Chief of General Staff in final and personal control of the war, nobody doubts that the Kremlin does mean business.

There is also a small, but noticeable change, in the Western propaganda with more and more voices dissenting from the official AngloZionist party line. Of course, the economic disaster facing the EU is most helpful in sobering up the Europeans: now that more and more EU citizens have to say “bye bye” to the comforts and jobs they used to enjoy (including first and foremost, dirt cheap energy costs), we can count on an increasingly loud rumble of protests. Maybe not “pro-Russian” ones, no – most Europeans, especially northern Europeans, *do* hate Russia – but at least anti-Establishment ones. Having silenced your conscience does not keep you warm or, for that matter, employed. The EU will now discover the very real costs of rabid russophobia. And sending tanks to the Ukraine obviously won’t help. Hence the current strikes and protests in several EU countries.

So when the promised offensive materializes, there will be only two options left: ditch the Ukronazi regime “Kabul style” or fully commit NATO (or a subset of NATO states) to invade the western Ukraine. My money is on the latter option.

Actually, this is not one option, but two very different ones.

In the first case, NATO (or a subset) will move in unilaterally hoping that Russia will not strike the occupation force.
In the second case, the US and Russia could strike a deal and jointly agree to partition the rump-Ukraine.

Obviously, the second solution is infinitely safer and preferable, but just like Hitler and his goons did not want to negotiate with Russian subhumans, neither do the AngloZionists.

Still, here is a truism which must be always kept in mind:

==>>There is nothing in the Ukraine Russia wants or needs<<==

This was true of the Ukraine before the SMO, and it is even more true today. Country 404 is basically deindustrialized and a prototypical failed state, while the population has been so brainwashed that it will take years to deprogram them. Russia only wants two things:

Protect the Russian speaking population from genocide
Deny NATO the use the Ukraine territory to attack Russia

Notice that neither of these options necessarily requires making major territorial gains. I would even argue that, with one exception (see below), it would be ideal for Russia to achieve these objectives by liberating as little as possible of the currently Nazi occupied land. As I have said it many times, the Ukrainians need to clear their own house and not expect Russia to do it for them. Alas, it will take another generation of Ukrainians to do that, assuming they ever will. But as long as country 404 is sufficiently demilitarized, Russia can wait for the denazification to seep into the minds of millions of brainwashed Ukrainians.

The first consequence of this, is that the Russians are more than happy not to move forward and have the US push NATO forces into the Russian meat grinder. True, it is unlikely that Russia will be able to demilitarize and denazify the Ukraine without a major offensive to finish up the Nazi forces. However, the seizure of land is not the Russian goal, only the means to achieve it.

Then there is the issue of the Nikolaev-Odessa-PMR (Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic).

While the Kremlin might have other plans, I personally don’t see any other option than to open a land corridor to PMR. This would also have the immense benefit of cutting the rump-Banderastan from the Black Sea. For NATO, however, the loss of Odessa and the Black Sea Coast would be a major setback, both politically and militarily. There were some really dumb ideas circulated about this in the West, including sending in the 101st as a “tripwire” force. Why is that dumb? Simply because *IF* the Russians have concluded that the liberation of the entire Ukrainian coast is vital to the security of Russia, then no “tripwire” force will stop them. And what will the US do if that tripwire force is attacked? Launch a full-scale nuclear attack on Russia?

Are the US Neocons willing to lose Washington DC, New York, Miami or Los Angeles over Odessa? I don’t know, but if they are the typical self-worshiping Nazis (which they are), then a nuclear holocaust might seem preferable to these hate-filled freaks. Can somebody sane stop them? I don’t know that either.

The headlines above suggest to me that no real decision has been made and that right now there is a tug of war inside the Western ruling elites about what to do when the (almost certainly) inevitable Russian offensive happens. By the way, this fact by itself might be a good reason for the Russians not to move in too soon. Yes, it is unlikely that saner voices will prevail, but being a nuclear superpower Russian must act with utmost caution and not listen to the Russian turbopatriots and the Western “friends of Russia” would have been advocating for total war for months, if not years.

Maybe the “Georgian model” is what might save the day?

Remember how during the three day war in 08.08.08 Russian forces were closing on Tbilissi with nobody left to defend the Georgian capital? The Russians decided to call back their forces (no, Russia has no need for either the land or the people of Georgia. Sounds familiar?) but Saakashvili reinterpreted this withdrawal as “our heroic and invincible forces stopped the Russians”. And two years before that, Dubya who declared with a straight face that Israel defeated Hezbollah in the “Divine Victory” war. So maybe the AngloZionists can save face by declaring that they “prevented Russians from seizing Lvov or Ivano-Frankovsk”? And if the Russians decide not to try to liberate Kiev, then NATO will be able to declared that “we stopped Russia from seizing Kiev”. Yes, that would be a rather transparent lie, at least for those few still capable of critical thought, but I personally much prefer a lie, however, silly, to a full-scale war.

So maybe Russia needs to have a third, unspoken, objective: give the crazies in the West a face-saving “out”, no matter how thin or ridiculous. In fact, I am pretty confident that there are folks in Russia working on this right now.

Andrei

PokeTheTruth on January 17, 2023 · at 5:14 pm EST/EDT

Firstly Saker, did you receive my greeting card and donation by U.S. mail?

This summary made me think about a possible way to twist Washington’s arm to get it to the negotiation table in earnest. I offer an anecdote that may have some application.

“There lives an honorable man and his family in a neighborhood. He owns a large property and has lived there for generations. He has gone through many tribulations with the elders of the local neighbors to keep his family safe by using diplomacy as well as necessary physical confrontation from time to time.

The honorable man has a friend in a far away place who has the same concern with his own local neighbors as does the honorable man. The two are cordial with each other, sharing ideas to protect their respect homes and property as well as to help their families prosper economically.

There is a powerful man who lives in a different, far away place. His power is so great it allows him to influence the honorable man’s neighbors by offering them material wealth and security in exchange for allowing the powerful man to build encampments on their property. This powerful man is envious of the honorable man’s property and wants to claim it for his own.

The honorable man has tried to be polite and considerate to the powerful man in the past but that has not been appreciated. Instead, the powerful man has repeatedly deceived the honorable man and threatened him by giving “measures of security” to the elders of the local neighbors to embolden them.

Relatives of the honorable man live on the property of the local neighbors and the powerful man has encouraged the elders to cause harm to the relatives using the security measures gifted to them. This they did with great malice under false pretenses for many years. The honorable man tried to address those issues with the elders but to no avail.

The honorable man knows the elders are cognitively malleable and easily swayed by the powerful man. After exhausting all means to settle the disputes, the honorable man could not allow his relatives to be harmed any longer and crossed the property line to defend them. The powerful man rubbed his hands together with affirmation that his plan is working to ultimately exhaust the honorable man’s resources to defend not only his relatives but also the survival of his own property.

The honorable man with few losses has consistently repelled the neighbor’s attempts and has established a foothold on the neighbor’s property to discourage them from continuing the harm. The local neighbors own relatives are perishing in this conflict as the powerful man’s security measures are rapidly being depleted.

Still, the powerful man has not relented and continues to send more and more security assets including paid mercenaries into the fight. It is a vicious cycle of death and destruction of the local neighbors’ property and economic wealth yet the elders cannot not stop due to the overt control exercised over them by the powerful man.

The friend of the honorable man observes how well the honorable man is performing but wonders if he might offer some help to bring and end to the powerful man’s plan and stop the carnage. So he suggests he joins his friend for two are stronger than one, even though the honorable man is more than capable to defeat the elders and the powerful man who lives far, far away.”

Who is the honorable man and who is his friend who lives in a far away place? What would be gained if the friend makes his presence known to the powerful man as a visible ally of the honorable man?

We have seen how poorly Russia uses the media to explain its position on the SMO verses the overwhelming superiority of the U.S.A. propaganda machine, even Saker acknowledged that fact.

So what I propose is General Valery Gerasimov be seen with a high ranking Chinese military officer such as General He Weidong, Vice chairman of the CMC (Central Military Commission) second rank or even General Zhang Youxia Vice chairman of the CMC (Central Military Command) first rank.

See: https://www.cna.org/our-media/indepth/2022/11/chinas-new-miliatry-leadership-possible-strengths-and-weaknesses .

A barrage of photo ops that show Russian and Chinese military leadership talking strategy with a map of eastern Ukraine in the background. Perhaps a small contingent of Chinese special operations military personnel or equipment in Crimea for example, may make the Pentagon think that China will be part of a larger force that General Gerasimov is laying out.

As I wrote in the little story, ” for two are stronger than one,” the idea that China entering the conflict even as a feint, would change the calculus of the U.S. and may push them to realize they have lost in Ukraine.

88 Comments

zemafe on January 17, 2023 · at 2:11 pm EST/EDT

I think that the issue of the Nikolaev-Odessa-PMR (Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic) will be solved because if not the future repercussions are not peaciful.

Nazi access to the Black Sea must be neutralized!

Zemafe – Portugal
Larchmonter445 on January 17, 2023 · at 3:21 pm EST/EDT

Saker,
You lost me at the end. It is evident from watching Kiev for a decade that they are not going to self-heal.
They are a sick society that must be terminated from a land base. No west, no Polish occupation. Empty ground all the way to NATO’s line west of Lvov.
Nothing that can carry a blue and yellow flag. Not a tree or clump of ground.

Russia can do this with standoff weapons.

As for a NATO interjection, Russia already has targeted for obliteration all the NATO bases used to supply Ukraine. If they push Poles and Liths and Romanians into the SMO, Russia will cancel NATO’s logistical objects.

As for nuclear war, the interview last week with Colonel Trukhan (who Andrei Martyanov regards very highly) indicated that the GS is preparing, and has been for years, to deal with tactical and strategic weapons from the Triad as needed. It has been war gamed recently, Trukhan stated.

The only thing that keeps us safe from an apocalypse is Russias variety of weapon platforms to deliver tactical and strategic warheads. Russia is up, escalation-wise. The US cannot stop what Russia can deliver. That is the cold hard pill the combined West (insane as they are, diseased as they are, impotent as they are).

I think the “offensive” will be a use of technologies not yet employed. It will not be some grand land maneuver of overpowering forces. The GS will continue to prevent Russian losses and do it with much greater air power.

Trukhan’s interview: https://mpsh.ru/15112-cinichnyj-imperskij-polkovnik-o-vagnere-svo-nato-jadernom-udare-po-partneram-i-mnogom-drugom.html
- Webej on January 17, 2023 · at 3:54 pm EST/EDT
  
  Your are perhaps not properly discounting the possible backlash in Ukraine when they lose their army and the DonBas, count up the war dead sacrificed in vain by the death cult in Kyiv, the deplorable state of the country and abandonment by the West.
  
  I have already seen several video’s with Ukrainian soldiers saying that Zelenskiy has much more to fear from them storming Kyiv than from the Russians or the Nazis. Backlashes can be severe. Turning the churches inside out will not help, and all the other foundational lies of the Nazi Ukraine’s ethnogenesis may still feature in some sort of karma.
  
  When I think of all those boys abandoned in the mud, I pray for some such outcome.
  - Moses on January 17, 2023 · at 6:20 pm EST/EDT
    
    Webej – there is logic in what you say. An analogy is that it is only possible to evaluate the full scale of damage after the hurricane ends and the flood waters recede. While the SMO is on, the Uko-narrative is directed at the “heroic resistance” and not the destruction and devastation set in motion by the coup of 2014.
    
    In the end, Russia needs to remain clear on her objectives and not be drawn into bear traps. These objectives as articulated by Putin are threefold: demilitarization, denazification, and ending the “rules-based order” of US hegemony. All three of these are unfolding at their own pace. The first two are not limited to the Ukraine but to all of NATO, and to de-Nazify requires the Nazis to first expose themselves as Nazis to the rest of the world.
    
    While it may look like nothing or little is happening with respect territorial gains, in fact everything is happening. As Andrei points out, capturing vast swathes of Ukraine inhabited by virulent Russophobes would be very problematic and a bear-trap.
    
    The real threat to US hegemony is China. Russia was perceived as the intermediate step towards destroying China – the lesson the West took away from Syria. The US Empire is running out of time. RAND described the window to stop China to be approximately five years.
    
    Let the decaying West destroy itself over Ukraine. Garland Nixon, I believe, described it as a giant trash compactor for US arms and money.
    
    ‘Never stop your enemy from making a mistake.’
- Amerikanski on January 17, 2023 · at 9:41 pm EST/EDT
  
  L445,
  
  I am inclined to agree — this is not like Georgia 08.08.08. As long as there is a hectare within the ‘border’ not occupied by Russia, the ‘free world’ will be cramming it with weapons and troops for propaganda stories.
  
  It will be a management problem for Russia, and Galicia may be allowed a small amount of autonomy, but Russia must be assured that NATO and the Banderite remnants of WWII are nowhere inside the ‘border’.
  - A. Dane on January 19, 2023 · at 9:53 am EST/EDT
    
    The only way for letting the Anglo Zionist save face is if the most high profile Agent for the Globalist war against Russia steppes down from office.
    That includes Joe Biden, Antony Blinken, General Milley, Justine Trudeau, Mélanie Joly, Jens Stoltenberg, Ursulan Von der Layen, Olaf Scholz, Analena Baebrock, Emmanuel Macron, Rishi Sunak, Andrzej Duda, Mariusz Błaszczak, Ingrida Šimonytė, Mette Fredriksen, Jacob Elleman, Sanna Marin etc.
    
    Thus it is nececary for Russia to continue its grinding down of NATO-Ukro forces until Russia reaches the Dneipr River and the Bridges to Kiev. By then reality will set in for the European population, and we may finally see House cleaning in NATO Nations.
    
    Russia has no need to hurry, However NATO does, because the political Agent of the Globalist Empire has now been exposed for the Fascists they really are, and are now staying in office on borowed time.
- Friend on January 17, 2023 · at 10:54 pm EST/EDT
  
  Fully agree. No face-saving back door, no mercy to fascists. Complete house cleaning is required. They have missed too many offers to negotiate in a civilized manner. Saving them would only allow them to backstab again.
- james1 on January 17, 2023 · at 11:21 pm EST/EDT
  
  What a shame that more Russians News outlets haven’t got the option to translate to English. LIke the link on your post which I would have liked to read.
  - Larchmonter445 on January 18, 2023 · at 10:34 am EST/EDT
    
    Download Yandex Browser. Use it for Russian or any language websites. It will automatically translate to English if you Set the Settings to do that.
    
    Flawless. I have used it for many years.
- NATO Blues on January 19, 2023 · at 11:07 pm EST/EDT
  
  Concur 100% re: 1st paragraph (the rest of your comment is beyond my knowledge base), no disrespect to Saker. Demilitarize and denazify to the last square inch of 404. Plus, as I understand, there is major western investment capital in 404’s arable land which I believe will be used to cultivate filthy GMO crops. Russia is world-renowned for it’s organic crops and doesn’t need potential contamination from land abused by GMO cultivation which it could use for its own benefit, so there’s that too.
Niccos on January 17, 2023 · at 3:22 pm EST/EDT

I hope Russia does the full work of destroying all western colonizers and their plans. The Neocons, the WEF, the WHO, the MIC and so on are a danger to the whole world and must be stopped. By letting them go halfway, the threat will eventually be returned. The best way to do this is to thoroughly demolish their economies. Not abruptly, because then they start the war. But slowly as it already goes in this chess game. The West is already destroying itself, so there is no need to rush things. China must eventually also enter the arena with actions towards Western economies, for example with disrupting global transport. This is possible if Russia and China have sufficiently separated themselves from western financial institutions. The sacrifice made by Russia is great, but they are the last gatekeeper who can prevent the Western hellhounds from getting their way.
- Rusty on January 18, 2023 · at 1:26 am EST/EDT
  
  Two thoughts.
  
  The peoples of the US and Europe who allowed themselves to be enslaved by those you named have a large responsibility to bear for this. What would be best for all of us is for we slaves to revolt.
  
  Russia and China separating themselves from western financial institutions is less important as a defensive measure than as a strategic offensive weapon. It’s a dagger to the heart.
  - Niccos on January 18, 2023 · at 5:23 am EST/EDT
    
    Revolution is always a temporary solution. The French did it a few hundred years ago and look at where they are now. Revolution does not make conscious people, it only remove the top to replace it with more of the same. Of course it’s the question if people are already evolved enough to get conscious. In fact as stated on this website before this is all about spirituality and if man are or are not ready to break the cyclus.
    
    Yes, a dagger to the heart.
AleaJactaEst on January 17, 2023 · at 3:22 pm EST/EDT

Sun Tzu – A surrounded army must be given a way out. The ancient rule of the charioteers says,

“Surround them on three sides, leaving one side open, to show them a way to life. Show them a way to life so that they will not be in the mood to fight to the death, and then you can take advantage of this to strike them.”
- Friend on January 17, 2023 · at 10:56 pm EST/EDT
  
  Sun Tzu did not count on Nazis shooting at their own, preventing their retreat.
maskazer2022 on January 17, 2023 · at 3:23 pm EST/EDT

Russia has only one choice, that’s to firmly defeat the NATO/West, hopefully without the use of H bombs. Russia’s very limited option is also shared by both China and Iran. They will be together in this until the final victory for the establishment of a New World Order based on a multi-polar structure that replaces the current finance casino capitalism. We don’t know how long it’s going to take to defeat the Anglozionists, may be several years. It could go on as long as the western nations can still import cheap energy from PG, North Africa…etc. which enables them to conduct their monkey business as usual i.e. continue with lies and send more weapons to country 404.
Leser on January 17, 2023 · at 3:36 pm EST/EDT

“And what will the US do if that tripwire force is attacked? Launch a fullscale nuclear attack on Russia?”

If I may add a thought, it seems to me that the West, to satisfy propaganda needs, keeps escalating in salami slices. So having the 101st there as a “trip wire” probably not in a binary sense of stepping from (relative) quiet to all hell breaking loose. The brainwashed majority in the West is still under the impression that it’s the Ukrainians that successfully beat back the Russians, helped by just “aid” from the West.

With a view to using the 101st, for Western propaganda more desirable might be a picture such as “now the Russians have attacked our very own US boys while they were peacefully sitting in Romania praying for the Ukrainian boys, can you believe it!”. And this way get tacit consent for – incrementally – inserting regular NATO troops onto the scene.
- tonyE on January 18, 2023 · at 2:34 am EST/EDT
  
  That “trip line” is actually an “Obama Line in The Sand”.
  
  No Pizarro he.
Webej on January 17, 2023 · at 3:47 pm EST/EDT

Remember Putin’s speech in which he mentioned Odesa as an apple of discord or the key to peace, referring to Greek mythology’s μῆλον τῆς Ἔριδος, Eris’ apple? I am not sure if the fate of the Black Sea littoral is already cast or whether Putin still considers it to be a possible bridge to compromise and the rebirth of Ukraine.
Ozark Grandpa on January 17, 2023 · at 3:48 pm EST/EDT

There’s a lot going on as regards the politics of this engagement, but the boys in the trenches see things from a whole different perspective:
https://folkpotpourri.com/despair-on-the-steppes-of-death/
Cid on January 17, 2023 · at 4:00 pm EST/EDT

There is indeed several things that Russia need in Ukraine.

1 – Future defendable geographic line in the Dnieper
2 – Control the frontier with Hungary. To have direct connection with Hungary means direct connection with Serbia what means a direct way to gain influence in the Balkans, disrupting the EU there.
Russia MUST defeat at the EU and bring it to the collapse, that means to compete and win in the Balkans.
3 – Connected with previous point the control of Odessa is crucial.
4 – Ukriane should be split bureaucratically also. Becoming a myriad of different Oblast without connection with each other.

5 – You have a point that Russia maybe don’t want to invest money or care about Lvov. Ok don’t do, but control it territory. You don’t need to invest anything. You just leave a destroy land, with second class citizens during at least a couple of generations.
Same with any other “rebel” district.

Russia has to apply the same way that the Union apply to the Confederacy
Ivan on January 17, 2023 · at 4:07 pm EST/EDT

Why do you think Ukrainians (both politicians and regular people) are interested or capable in changing?
- The Saker on January 17, 2023 · at 6:14 pm EST/EDT
  
  Because I take the nationalist propaganda which the people of the Ukraine have been subjected to since 1917 very seriously, I see how effective it is. You can’t undo such a massive brainwashing in a few years or even a generation.
  The issue is not ideas/politics but *identity*.
  There was a “Small Russian” or “Ukrainian” identity before 1917 and it was original, it had positive content.
  Since 1917 the only “Ukrainian identity” is being “anti-Russia”. That’s over 100 years of anti-Russian propaganda. First from the Bolsheviks, then from the consolidated and united West, then from the Zapadentsy since 1991 and now even more strident since 2014.
  That is a reality we all have to live with (thank you to the Papacy and the West for creating these conditions!)
  - Pamela St on January 17, 2023 · at 7:14 pm EST/EDT
    
    Really really appreciate seeing the issue of identity highlighted here. It’s so important, and there is an ocean of evidence to support it, but it’s one huge huge way that the majority of the people of the Old anachronistic West have been attacked, as few now know who they are, why they should know, and the damage done to them because they dont know.
    
    It’s one thing we Celts of Cymru are solid on, and most of us fight all attempts to take it away. We feel it in our bones, as the saying goes, we know it’s there, and we know the emptiness that loss of it would entail. As a saying on one of our national sites goes “Where ever you go in the world, never forget you are Welsh – Cymraeg”
    As if we could.
  - Ivan on January 18, 2023 · at 5:09 am EST/EDT
    
    Yes. But you can’t just conjure up some national identity in a short amount of time, at least not
    something that is robust, enduring and won’t be used as another tool of manipulation.
    The national identity can be built bottom up (slow process taking decades or centuries) or top-down (faster, but it needs lots of coersion like we saw in the case of Yugoslavia where national identities of Serbs, Croats were suppressed and artificial identity of “Yugoslavs” forced upon people).
    
    And like you said, if the only thing that binds people together is hate towards somebody, that doesn’t
    bode well for the future. Hence, my question whether the Ukrainians have the will and interest to change.
    - The Saker on January 18, 2023 · at 10:46 am EST/EDT
      
      Well, as the Russian saying goes, “the fridge will defeat the TV” meaning that poverty kills the propaganda on TV. That is most likely what will happen with most Ukrainians (that is, those who did not flee abroad)
      - Davi on January 18, 2023 · at 6:04 pm EST/EDT
        
        However, it seems that it is exactly the ones who have fled, Canada being the most blatant one that is stirring the ‘pot’ the most. I have a neighbor who is currently in the Ukraine (somewhere near the Romanian border) selling her property there. She is so virulently anti Russian that is very difficult to engage her in a civil conversation without it turning to her bias in that regard.
Greifenberg on January 17, 2023 · at 4:43 pm EST/EDT

I don’t think those responsible for NATO can declare victory and leave at this point. This would create the conditions for an irreversible collapse of all of their plans forever.

I was thinking of an old Chinese text called “Thirty-Six Stratagems” the other day in relation to the war in Ukraine. The NATO position looks a little like this to me…
Kill with a borrowed knife (借刀殺).

“Attack using the strength of another when in a situation where using one’s own strength is not favourable. For example, trick an ally into attacking them or use the enemy’s own strength against them. The idea is to cause damage to the enemy via a third party.”

Russia looks more like this to me….

Wait at leisure while the enemy labors (以逸待勞),
“It is advantageous to choose the time and place for battle while the enemy does not. Encourage the enemy to expend their energy in futile quests while one conserves their strength. When the enemy is exhausted and confused, attack with energy and purpose”.

Loot a burning house (趁火打劫),
“When a country is beset by internal problems, such as disease, famine, corruption, and crime, it is poorly-equipped to deal with an outside threat. Keep gathering internal information about an enemy. If the enemy is in its weakest state, attack them without mercy and annihilate them to prevent future troubles”.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thirty-Six_Stratagems

It is true that Russia will have to take some decisive action at some point but really there is no rush.
- Virgil on January 17, 2023 · at 5:22 pm EST/EDT
  
  Thanks for that link!
PokeTheTruth on January 17, 2023 · at 5:14 pm EST/EDT

Firstly Saker, did you receive my greeting card and donation by U.S. mail?

This summary made me think about a possible way to twist Washington’s arm to get it to the negotiation table in earnest. I offer an anecdote that may have some application.

“There lives an honorable man and his family in a neighborhood. He owns a large property and has lived there for generations. He has gone through many tribulations with the elders of the local neighbors to keep his family safe by using diplomacy as well as necessary physical confrontation from time to time.

The honorable man has a friend in a far away place who has the same concern with his own local neighbors as does the honorable man. The two are cordial with each other, sharing ideas to protect their respect homes and property as well as to help their families prosper economically.

There is a powerful man who lives in a different, far away place. His power is so great it allows him to influence the honorable man’s neighbors by offering them material wealth and security in exchange for allowing the powerful man to build encampments on their property. This powerful man is envious of the honorable man’s property and wants to claim it for his own.

The honorable man has tried to be polite and considerate to the powerful man in the past but that has not been appreciated. Instead, the powerful man has repeatedly deceived the honorable man and threatened him by giving “measures of security” to the elders of the local neighbors to embolden them.

Relatives of the honorable man live on the property of the local neighbors and the powerful man has encouraged the elders to cause harm to the relatives using the security measures gifted to them. This they did with great malice under false pretenses for many years. The honorable man tried to address those issues with the elders but to no avail.

The honorable man knows the elders are cognitively malleable and easily swayed by the powerful man. After exhausting all means to settle the disputes, the honorable man could not allow his relatives to be harmed any longer and crossed the property line to defend them. The powerful man rubbed his hands together with affirmation that his plan is working to ultimately exhaust the honorable man’s resources to defend not only his relatives but also the survival of his own property.

The honorable man with few losses has consistently repelled the neighbor’s attempts and has established a foothold on the neighbor’s property to discourage them from continuing the harm. The local neighbors own relatives are perishing in this conflict as the powerful man’s security measures are rapidly being depleted.

Still, the powerful man has not relented and continues to send more and more security assets including paid mercenaries into the fight. It is a vicious cycle of death and destruction of the local neighbors’ property and economic wealth yet the elders cannot not stop due to the overt control exercised over them by the powerful man.

The friend of the honorable man observes how well the honorable man is performing but wonders if he might offer some help to bring and end to the powerful man’s plan and stop the carnage. So he suggests he joins his friend for two are stronger than one, even though the honorable man is more than capable to defeat the elders and the powerful man who lives far, far away.”

Who is the honorable man and who is his friend who lives in a far away place? What would be gained if the friend makes his presence known to the powerful man as a visible ally of the honorable man?

We have seen how poorly Russia uses the media to explain its position on the SMO verses the overwhelming superiority of the U.S.A. propaganda machine, even Saker acknowledged that fact.

So what I propose is General Valery Gerasimov be seen with a high ranking Chinese military officer such as General He Weidong, Vice chairman of the CMC (Central Military Commission) second rank or even General Zhang Youxia Vice chairman of the CMC (Central Military Command) first rank.

See: https://www.cna.org/our-media/indepth/2022/11/chinas-new-miliatry-leadership-possible-strengths-and-weaknesses .

A barrage of photo ops that show Russian and Chinese military leadership talking strategy with a map of eastern Ukraine in the background. Perhaps a small contingent of Chinese special operations military personnel or equipment in Crimea for example, may make the Pentagon think that China will be part of a larger force that General Gerasimov is laying out.

As I wrote in the little story, ” for two are stronger than one,” the idea that China entering the conflict even as a feint, would change the calculus of the U.S. and may push them to realize they have lost in Ukraine.
- The Saker on January 17, 2023 · at 6:18 pm EST/EDT
  
  Firstly Saker, did you receive my greeting card and donation by U.S. mail?
  
  Yes I did, thank you very much!!
  
  the idea that China entering the conflict even as a feint, would change the calculus of the U.S. and may push them to realize they have lost in Ukraine.
  
  China is supporting Russia, but not by military means since, frankly, Russia does not need military help. But politically and economically, the Chinese are helping, they just have to be very careful about timing as they still hold huge dollar reserves and their economy is tightly integrated into the US one. So what they will always favor would be a slow, gradual, change which is also what Putin prefers. Except that the West gave Putin no choice. We shall see if Uncle Shmuel forces China to liberate Taiwan or not.
Morgoth on January 17, 2023 · at 5:43 pm EST/EDT

The irony of all this is that the Saker lives in the USA.

Imagine if he wrote this crap about the Russian Government, in Russia.

Hilarious double standards on display. West ain’t perfect but it lets people still have a degree of free speech that Russia and China (to name two) would never allow.

Hey, dummy, you must have missed this: /why-do-i-live-in-the-usa
Well, tough luck. You are banned :-)
Bye bye
Andrei
PS: you also show your crass ignorance: there is MUCH MORE freedom of speech in Russia and even China that in the various Anglo colonies of Zone A
- Moses on January 17, 2023 · at 6:57 pm EST/EDT
  
  It is worth noting that the ‘Blank Paper’ protests in China made the Chinese Government revise their entire pandemic policy. Contrast this with the ‘Trucker Protest’ in Canada, where Trudeau declared martial law.
  
  I take no pleasure in saying this but the Collective West and all the values of the Enlightenment I admired as a youth such as freedom of thought and expression and truthfulness have been slowly eroded and are now a sham. The lies and double standards in Zone A (Palestine anyone?) are endless and anyone speaking out requires to understand the risks they expose themselves to. Look no further than the plights of Julian Assange and Edward Snowden.
  
  Hats off to Andrei and others who have the courage to speak their truths and create these platforms for all of us.
  
  I would also gently point Morgoth to a superb article re-posted by Larry Johnson on why an increasing number of Americans, who love their country, want to see Russia resoundingly defeat the US neocon MIC.
  
  https://sonar21.com/destroying-monsters-by-helmholtz-smith/
  - Surferket on January 17, 2023 · at 8:37 pm EST/EDT
    
    No, you are mistaking the cart before the horse. There have always been small scale protests in China over the past 3 years because of the strict lockdowns. But the so-called “paper” protest didn’t cause Beijing to move to a new policy. In fact, MOA had an article on this clearly stating the timeframe of the 20 Optimised Measures policy commencement and then the larger protests.
    The larger protests were because local municipal govts refuses to lift the harsh and unnecessary lockdowns despite Beijing actually demanding an end to them.
    Why do I know?
    Because I live in China and experienced directly the incredibly harsh and unnecessary lockdowns that took place in many Chinese cities back in November. I supported the earlier lockdowns because China was dealing with the more deadly Alpha, Gamma, and Delta. But municipal govts became very powerful with the authority to impose lockdowns and control movements. Power hungry and corrupt at the end. Even Beijing saw what was happening.
    The mutation of BA strain from the original Omicron is much more like a bad flu. That’s when Beijing decided that the time is right to open up.
  - Surferket on January 17, 2023 · at 8:44 pm EST/EDT
    
    Btw, Chinese do NOT protest waving pieces of white paper. They hold long banners if they do hold anything.
    The white paper is a US propaganda photo just as the fake photo of Iranian schoolgirls in a photo shown flipping the bird.
    These are NOT cultural in their societies’ context.
    
    And yes, Chinese have much more freedom of speech than most people in the so-called “democractic” countries that have multi parties “elections”. In my own home country protests are illegal and get you arrested. We can only protest in a small corner of an isolated small public park, and 24 hours advance approval from the nearby police post with topic declared and approved. Go figure. Literally talking to the birds.
    - Rob on January 18, 2023 · at 12:32 am EST/EDT
      
      Good point. At the quadrennial Republican and Democratic Party National Conventions, demonstrators are kept behind fences in locations where they will never be seen by those attending the proceedings. That is what has become of the once sacred Constitutional right of assembly.
- Greifenberg on January 17, 2023 · at 8:55 pm EST/EDT
  
  I live in the U.S. and I can’t count the number of times I’ve been banned from making comments on the internet or apps. The excuse was that they were private businesses and weren’t required to uphold the constitutional freedom of speech. It turns out many of these companies took public funds to start their private business and organizations like the FBI or CIA were meeting their executives and telling these companies who to ban and what kind of content was acceptable. I don’t really know what kind of freedoms Russians or Chinese have but I can tell you here in the U.S. this is largely an illusion. You have freedom of speech but you had better watch what you say.
  
  The saker has very clear terms that I follow. I’ve written some controversial things here and I haven’t been banned yet.
  /moderation-policy/
  - The Saker on January 18, 2023 · at 11:09 am EST/EDT
    
    Well, thank you for reading the moderation policy :-)
    Many never bother…
    Kind regards
- iR.47 on January 18, 2023 · at 2:32 am EST/EDT
  
  Free speach ? Where ? Twitter ?
joey_n on January 17, 2023 · at 5:46 pm EST/EDT

OT re:
https://www.rt.com/news/569959-russia-france-orthodox-cemetery/

Even with a pro-Russian bent, the presumably, but not surprisingly, Anglophone readership is not immune to throwing the ‘cheese-eating surrender monkeys’ meme, feeding into the Anglo-American narrative which involves portraying the French as poor fighters, as if the British didn’t quickly collapse when faced with an adversary that could fight back.
- The Saker on January 17, 2023 · at 6:19 pm EST/EDT
  
  The notion that the French are lesser soldiers than the Anglos is simply false.
  Ditto for the Italians.
  That is just Anglo racism, not historical analysis.
  - Robert M. Peters on January 17, 2023 · at 8:52 pm EST/EDT
    
    As a civilian specialist working liaison for a U.S. unit in Germany, I coordinated the units visit’s to the French Commando School in Colmar, France. I attended the school as an observer and as a translator. I was impressed with the soldiering skills of the French and with their esprit de corps. My uncle who fought in both WWI and WWII was in a WWI unit with the French on the right flank. He was thoroughly impressed and appreciated their fighting skills and their courage.
    - The Saker on January 18, 2023 · at 11:13 am EST/EDT
      
      Exactly,
      How about Italian special operation divers, they are nothing short of formidable.
Hajduk on January 17, 2023 · at 6:02 pm EST/EDT

The Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic is where NATO will most likely attack in my opinion, perhaps starting with a nationalist colour revolution in Moldova that spills over into the PMR, requiring Romania to take unilateral action.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wgFGIEdFGCQ
Although I can’t understand a word I love this video because everyone in it has such kind human faces. I noticed that about a quarter of the students are ethnic Romanian, but culturally Russian, which must be a source of constant aggravation to Romanian/Moldovan extremists. The PMR has a tiny military and the Russian monitors are isolated and few in number so it’s probably the easiest place to vindictively inflict harm on Russian people.

As for the collective West, an old friend who’s a priest pointed me to Romans 1:16-35…

‘For this cause God gave them up unto vile affections: for even their women changed the natural use into that which is against nature. And likewise also the men, leaving the natural use of the woman, burned in their lust one toward another, men with men, working that which is unseemly, and receiving in themselves that recompense for their error which was meet.

And even as they did not like to retain God in their knowledge, God gave them over to a reprobate mind to do those things which are not fitting, being filled with all unrighteousness, fornication, wickedness, covetousness, maliciousness, full of envy, murder, strife, deceit, malignity. They are whisperers, backbiters, haters of God, spiteful, proud, boasters, inventors of evil things, disobedient to parents, without understanding, covenantbreakers, without natural affections, implacable, unmerciful.

And knowing the judgment of God, that those who commit such things are worthy of death, they not only do the same, but have pleasure in those who do them.’
Pamela St on January 17, 2023 · at 6:14 pm EST/EDT

I have been a little reluctant to bring this observation – which I think an important one – to discussion here, because I suspect Saker dislikes the person I would be citing. However, I think its very relevant to this issue, so I will simply state the facts without naming names, out of respect.

There is a well known commentator on the Ukraine issue with a background in weapons systems control, destruction and Arms Limitation. He has frequently commented on the fact that Arms limitation is in his opinion, essential to try and bring some control to this Ukraine situation. He has reported recently as follows.

What this commentator says is that,” at the moment, there is absolutely no diplomacy in existence between Russia and America”. He stated he had recently had lunch with Anatoly Antonov who is the Russian ambassador to the US — And incidentally the only ambassador anywhere who is under international sanctions.
” He negotiated the new Start Treaty, which is the best armed control treaty remaining in existence.
According of the commentator, “He has accomplished far more than anyone in the US State Department now; not a single one of them has accomplished what Anatoly Antonov has, and yet he sits in a gilded cage.
He is not allowed to interact with anybody and nobody wants to interact with him. Nothing is happening except this; [And this is something that has been spoken of by senior staff at the State Department of America]; at a recent big anniversary and reunion event a senior staff member of State Department spoke off the record and so he cannot be named nor the content of his presentation made clear.

The commentator said he can however make the following note; that there is a widespread recognition of everyone present that State Department now no longer has any say whatsoever in the nuclear posture of the USA.

When it comes to nuclear issues and matters related the Department of Defense – more accurately of war – reigns supreme and is totally responsible for every aspect of the nuclear enterprise, to include any notion of arms control negotiations.

The commentator then said “when I brought this up with Antonov he said; “well sadly, because nothing exists in a vacuum, you can’t expect Russians to retain their expertise in arms control negotiations if it is not being exercised; and so also the Russian Ministry of Defence is stepping in

“Thus we now have the world’s two largest nuclear arsenals and the people responsible for coming up with mechanisms to control those arsenals and hopefully diminish them are the same people who are responsible for making nuclear arsenals modern and highly relevant to their national security postures”.

The commentator added “this is insanity – literally the definition of insanity”.

Nobody is discussing disarmament, only an arms race, and Russia has lapped the US Twice over in this.

There is no way the US Can catch up with Russia’s expertise – yet US Leaders are refusing to see and accept this truth.

We can only hope that they accept the need to retreat and accept defeat — Because if they refuse and try to fight back then it’s all over for all of us.”

This is the commentators opinion – whether it could be sidelined by finding a face saving mechanism and taking i, I don’t know. I guess none of us know whether they whether they would accept a face saving out.

Whether they would accept a new Iron curtain across Europe from the northern nation of Russia we’ll have to wait and see. But if they are insane enough to believe that they really can launch a nuclear “Limited Nuclear War” and win – which most of them seem to think they can – then from what we know of the Russian response it will be an all out total response and the results of that are beyond thinking.

Given that we also know from Daniel Ellsberg that it doesnt just take the president off the United States to launch nuclear weapons; There are senior Pentagon Admirals and Generals who believe they have the right to do so; so there seem to be multiple factors contributing to an incredibly unstable and very frightening situation
- The Saker on January 17, 2023 · at 6:27 pm EST/EDT
  
  Look, the fact that I think that Scott Ritter is trying to use this war to regain the reputation lost after his legal problems does not mean that I “dislike” him. I don’t like OR dislike him. I simply don’t trust his “analyses” because he changes his tune to get maximal visibility and because I think that his actual expertise is VASTLY over-rated. However, if you look at the blog’s philosophy page it includes the quote from Malcolm X “I am for truth, no matter who tells it.”
  So, please, next time around don’t allude to some mysterious person I don’t like, but if he says something you agree with, just bring the argument, not need to back it up by an argument from authority, especially if that authority is not much of an authority.
  Thank you
  - Pamela St on January 17, 2023 · at 7:08 pm EST/EDT
    
    I read a comment you made to someone who had quoted Ritter saying “please dont mention that name here. It’s not a rule, just a request”
    
    so I tried to comply with your request. Apologies if I misunderstood.
    
    I’d really rather discuss the issues he raised, frankly.
    - Pamela St on January 17, 2023 · at 7:15 pm EST/EDT
      
      Should anyone be interested in hearing Ritters’ comments, this is the link.
      
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6AQdvZ6x1hA&t=617s
      - ram on January 17, 2023 · at 9:23 pm EST/EDT
        
        I’d be very surprised if there were not side channels of communications between the American NSA/CIA and their Russian counterparts. So in that sense, I think Ritter is partially wrong.
        
        Pamela St on January 17, 2023 · at 10:56 pm EST/EDT
        
        Well he is quoting Senior staff from State and the Russian Ambassador, so I would think he may be on point this time anyway.
    - The Saker on January 18, 2023 · at 11:17 am EST/EDT
      
      Yeah, you are right, that comment of mine was misleading, sorry!
      Anyway, bottom line is this: if you find good arguments from Ritter, by all means, post them!
      I personally don’t consider him a source I would use, but others clearly otherwise and that’s fine by me.
      Anyway, sorry for the confusion :-)
      Kind regards
WTFUD on January 17, 2023 · at 6:15 pm EST/EDT

With the frequent power cuts across Ukraine the fodder deemed unfit for Russian consumption are queueing at the heavily discounted frozen food sections in Supermarkets.

Unfortunately Poroshenko’s chocolate iced lollies and ice-cream products could not be saved, however, his funeral service businesses are witnessing record profits.

When asked for comment, Poroshenko stated, in business you win some and you lose some. He later further ventured that while each Russian missile strike brought in new clients, it was nowhere near the amounts US Defence companies were banking.
- the punisher on January 17, 2023 · at 8:45 pm EST/EDT
  
  Too bad for Poroshenko’s funeral business losses and US wet dreams of more mayhem. Terribly tragic.
  
  If he was smarter he’d have invested in Russia’s TOS-1A and gone ‘all in’ on a wise investment opportunity.
  
  It’s worked well for RF’s so far, making their smaller problems simply disappear. Obviously.
amorf on January 17, 2023 · at 6:24 pm EST/EDT

“Russian nuclear command structure
The President of Russia (the Supreme Commander-in-Chief) has a cheget on hand at all times. It is one of three, with the other two held by the Minister of Defence and the Chief of the General Staff. It may be that affirmations from two of the three are needed to trigger an actual launch.”

Could one of the motivating factors to make Gerasimov the theatre commander be, that he is one of these three that has a nuke briefcase?

By which I mean: it is possible Western (US) officials have threatened to use tactical nuclear weapons, when faced with a major Russian victory or a major (decisive) Ukrainian defeat.

To be able to counter such a situation in any upcoming major Russian offensive, you need a theatre commander who as it were “has his hands on the button”.
- The Saker on January 17, 2023 · at 6:29 pm EST/EDT
  
  No, this has nothing to do with the authority to launch nukes.
  Having Gerasimov at the very top, with Surovikin and two other generals as his deputies, simply insures that no bureaucratic issues will prevent the Russian military to get everything it needs. Putin said so much himself – the armed forces will get *everything* they need.
RockTime on January 17, 2023 · at 6:45 pm EST/EDT

Andrei,

I agree with many of the points you talk about, but am afraid you forget about a couple of extremely important objectives Russia has in this fight.

As we all know:

1) this war is NOT between Russia and Ukraine. Ukraine is just a patsy (very much in sync with the “borrowed knife” Strategem that Greifenberg has shared below)

2) any “unfinished” territory (as small as it can be) of the Ukraine will metastasize into a threat to Russia within 3-5 years. NATO and the AngloZionists will never stop arming it, unless

3) the Russia’s December 2021 ultimatum about NATO crawling back behind the 1997 line and respecting Russia’s security demands gets implemented AND unless NATO is completely defanged.

Given these 3 key objectives Russia (as much as it does not need and does not care about “territories”) has no choice but to control whatever rump (if any) that will remain of the Ukraine.

I also think Russia NEEDS Poland (and Romania) to get involved in the war militarily. Only then, once their armies are demolished and capitulate can Russia push the NATO line back behind the 1997 line (the midgets, called the Baltic states, will simply be a free add-on, “or else”). And I suspect the new dummies – Sweden and Finland – are dragged into this mess simply to be new bargaining chips for AngloZionists during the future negotiations with Russia on the new geopolitical configuration and security arrangements.

So, I am afraid we are still at the beginning stages of the overall Big War. Ukraine is losing its cannon fodder fast. Hopefully by the summer there won’t be many alive Uki-Nazi soldiers left. And then it will be the Polish and Romanian cannon fodder’s turn. I am pretty sure at this point Russia won’t stop until the genocidal AngloZionists are completely defeated and crawl under the rock for good.
- ram on January 17, 2023 · at 9:31 pm EST/EDT
  
  There is no way the Romanians will fight the Russians on behalf of the Americans. They are far more likely to mutiny against the American occupation.
  
  Similarly, there is a reason many, if not most, Americans refer to their “government” as the ZOG or Zionist Occupation Government. They are not exactly keen to fight for it either. When the USD goes to its intrinsic value, i.e. zero, then the USA loses its mercenary forces and any leverage it still has on foreign forces.
  
  Time is on the side of the BRICS.
  - Rob on January 18, 2023 · at 12:46 am EST/EDT
    
    I hope you are joking, but the US dollar will never be worth zero, not even close.
    - Amerikanski on January 18, 2023 · at 6:11 pm EST/EDT
      
      The dollar’s significance as a global currency is already impaired — we can’t spend dollars in Russia due to sanctions. It’s almost as if the American policy makers want to make Russia great again!
    - Winder31 on January 20, 2023 · at 7:22 pm EST/EDT
      
      All fiat currencies eventually go to their intrinsic value which is zero. No exceptions. Saudis just lit the fuse walking away from the “ petrodollar.”
Fred on January 17, 2023 · at 7:25 pm EST/EDT

I hope Russia take none of the advice given so far in this comment section. Pursuing a win-lose strategy always degenerates into lose-lose outcomes. Cooler heads must prevail. Instead, once Ukraine is defeated, demilitarized and the ethnic Russians safeguarded, Russia should pull out. Long term energy contracts with Russia should be signed by Ukraine. Western Europe will have lost the war, committed economic suicide for nothing. This will free Russia to pursue the third demand made just before the SMO was launched, namely a new security structure within Europe where NATO retreats to their 1991 borders. No oil, gas, uranium, fertiliser or any other commodity to Western Europe until this happens.
- Moses on January 17, 2023 · at 7:57 pm EST/EDT
  
  I agree with what you say about the risk the outcome degenerating to lose-lose.
  
  However, I am curious what this would look like: “once Ukraine is defeated, demilitarized and the ethnic Russians safeguarded, Russia should pull out”, since with NATO almost all in at this point, either NATO needs to be demilitarized in the Russian trash compactor, or the US needs to pull a Kabul withdrawal.
karlof1 on January 17, 2023 · at 8:11 pm EST/EDT

I recall Putin’s vow restated on several occasions to defeat the hegemony, which was said well after the SMO commenced. So, there’s a much broader overall strategic goal at play, not just the demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine. I’m on the record for stating NATO has no weapons capable of defeating Russia, not even nukes. But NATO politicos have dug themselves so deep a hole that they can only see one way out, the result being establishing the people of Europe as the major Wild Card in this struggle. Today RT reported on a poll by Euroskopia that reveals the fracturing of the EU/NATO public that will only deepen as Winter moves forward, signs of which have been visible for awhile. The German Defense Minister–despite media spin–resigned over the issue of sending tanks, which the obedient poodle Scholtz will approve–and that will split Germany even more. Even the Poles aren’t as gung-ho as their government. IMO, Russia will continue its general push forward all along the FEBA forcing Ukies to use their rapidly dwindling reserves to plug the potential breakthroughs,

I agree Kiev doesn’t need to be captured, nor Galicia–Putin has said it’s not worth the trouble. But Odessa was/is an Imperial City and the coast all the way to Transnistria ought to be liberated and the Moldovans allowed to figure out where their future lies. As I wrote at MoA, the only way for NATO to win is to try and gain control of Ukie airspace so its ground formations are provided a chance. And that means direct NATO involvement with its air forces. IMO, they’ll be defeated and thus there’ll be no mistake as to which side won. If NATO shirks from committing its air forces, Russia will have carte blanch in Ukraine.

In the near future, if an offensive is launched, IMO its objective will be Odessa. Otherwise, we can only wait and watch.
Guy from US on January 17, 2023 · at 8:11 pm EST/EDT

Good analysis, but it seems that:

“In the second case, the US and Russia could strike a deal and jointly agree to partition the rump-Ukraine.”

and

“Deny NATO the use the Ukraine territory to attack Russia”

are in conflict, yes?
Nate on January 17, 2023 · at 8:58 pm EST/EDT

Some videos for today.

Another RT exclusive showing Soledar:
https://odysee.com/@RT:fd/gazdiev_soledar_17:e

Our assault was destined to succeed – Wagner fighter on Soledar offensive:
https://odysee.com/@RT:fd/Soledar_Wagner_1601:b

‘Houses destroyed on daily basis’: Kiev regime shells Donetsk Republic indiscriminately:
https://odysee.com/@RT:fd/KOSAREV-GORLOVKA:8

Pro-Kiev regime internet warriors call for German Bild journalist’s execution:
https://odysee.com/@RT:fd/call_for_execution_1601:e

Russian howitzer works on enemy position:
https://rutube.ru/video/8d39ba84f6baa8cfd1dd7f7b5b83e1f0/

Kiev regime tanks destroyed in duel:
https://odysee.com/@RT:fd/tanks-duel:c

Russian Lancet drone destroys another US-supplied M777 howitzer:
https://www.bitchute.com/video/NowNEoDh4TRM/

Russian Lancet drone destroys Kiev regime Osa system:
https://www.bitchute.com/video/N3oBxZBcNs8A/

Russian Ka-52 helicopter strikes enemy position:
https://rutube.ru/video/ed1258b4075bc556a9148f1b829dd065/

New Yorkers protest against Washington’s anti-Russia proxy war and NATO:
https://odysee.com/@RT:fd/NY-PROTEST:5
- Robert Shule on January 17, 2023 · at 11:12 pm EST/EDT
  
  Re: your last video. However small, it is good to see some organized protesters out against the Ukraine war. I thought the anti-war movement was pretty much killed in the U.S.A. Positive to see that it is not. Need to see more of this.
Robert Shule on January 17, 2023 · at 9:23 pm EST/EDT

I think there is something possibly missing in this analysis; I’m not so sure the U.S.A. is really looking for an “out”. There is no cost benefit to do so. The U.S. leaders are more interested in keeping the mess going. First there is a money laundering operation going on where monies are being reshuffled back to the Democratic party and elsewhere which would grind to a hault should the war actually stop. Second, there is a great business going on with U.S. weapon suppliers who can endlessly send over weapons (not really, but rather collect monies with the intent to send over weapons) so long as the war goes on. With Russia willing and able to blow up whatever is being sent, this means an endless demand for goods from military contractors. (imagine the sounds of Ching, Ching at the military contractor accounting offices) Third, its a way get Europeans to stop buying Russian fuel, and to get the Europeans to crash thier own economies. The Ukraine war also works as a great cover to pump money into the stock market every six months or so to keep that sick poodle afloat. In summary, as long as the Ukraine war grinds on, U.S money making operations keep going. From the U.S. perspective there is no concern about all them dead people and suffering. It doesn’t even matter if a few U.S. citizens eventually get sucked in, and get whacked. The elites are making money, and that is all that counts.
- Jonabark on January 18, 2023 · at 11:07 am EST/EDT
  
  Agree with Robert S
  This militarized money game seems to be the driving force. The US and global capitalist elites seem untroubled as the US loses wars but keeps the war profits flowing and destroys economic threats like Libya’s African bank or Iraq and Iran turning from dollar, or Venezuelan independence. It is primarily a police state, and control of the “free press” is the illusionist’s greatest asset for blinding citizens to the fact that they are being robbed to enrich the plantation owners who hire them to police themselves. By the way, the idea that Trump represented change is a farce. The empire does not care who they are buying off politically . Corporations give to both parties. Politics is a pressure release valve that directs anger into a black hole and keeps the masses hoping the new boss will be different.
Edward Q on January 17, 2023 · at 9:54 pm EST/EDT

I think what makes the situation now so dangerous is that 1) the U.S. side is so delusional, and 2) careers are on the line with the outcome of this war. At least during the Cuban missile crisis there was a certain level of realism on the U.S. side. While those officials may or may not have been moral, you could at least expect them to move their head out of the way of a gun.

I think the shape of any Russian offensive is going to be designed with a political settlement in Ukraine in mind. I have no idea what this will be. It is going to depend on the politics in Ukraine about which I know little. There are probably different scenarios, depending on what can be expected from the people in east Ukraine. Complicating all this will be the larger conflict with the West.
frankly on January 17, 2023 · at 10:32 pm EST/EDT

Read that civilian deaths in the SMO have been quite low in comparison to US history. The Russian pace belays a certain hesitancy. Every opportunity to come to our senses has been given.

Yet in our haste to win the propaganda war, we seal our fate. How many decision makers know what is actually going on? Who remembers the Maidan details, the daily shelling for 8 years of civilians in the Donbass? Even if we were winning, what are we fighting for?

Seems to me Putin has started a truth war and unconditionally surrendered the propaganda one. Yes you win, you lie infinitely better than we do!

Is that preeminent proof that should have every sovereign individual get down on their knees and thank the Empire for letting us live. Yes psycho-liars deserve to rule the world! They need no other qualification.

Said it when Syria was hot and it still applies. Every day this goes on the US gets weaker and Russia gets stronger. The moral decay is exacting as big a toll as the loss of reputation.

Obviously NAKO could give a damn about the cannon fodder, there is after all a pretty serious call to reduce world population, just ask Gates. Just look at the product we are moving, business is good, for the chosen few.

” I personally much prefer a lie, however, silly, to a full-scale war.” Yup sooner or later the truth will come out and we will have to concede, Putin was right. Take your time bud, drives them nuts just thinking what you got up your sleeve next.
Faizaan on January 17, 2023 · at 10:45 pm EST/EDT

On the second point on striking a deal.. I don’t think Putin is having any deals with west anymore.. It’s never going to happen I feel.. Most likely scenario of cutting of through west Ukraine will most probably get the NATO troops officially on ground in Ukraine and I think it’s most likely to happen..Ukraine has been a master plan for the Zionists and they r lusting for a war on Russia with Ukraine as the battleground
Gilles Turcotte on January 17, 2023 · at 11:26 pm EST/EDT

« maybe Russia needs a third objective : give the crazies a face-saving “out” »

Except this doesn’t address why they attacked Russia.

Emperor (the Davosian bankers) is dying ; it’s a vampire in need of blood , and RussoChina is in its way.
It’s existential for both side ; one has to give for the other to live.
The only way out is for the masses to get rid of the Davosian vampires.

Russian strategy is to give the masses time and incentives to get rid of the vampires.
Melotte22 on January 18, 2023 · at 12:34 am EST/EDT

Bottom line is, Ukraine in any shape or form must cease to exist, its military forces completely demilitirized, denazified , basically dismantled. That is the only guarantor for Russia’s security. Anything short of this will be an accute problem for Russia.
Rusty on January 18, 2023 · at 1:10 am EST/EDT

“Alas, it will take another generation of Ukrainians to [clear their own house], assuming they ever will.”

It might take two generations. I suggest the process requires (at least) two stages, each needing about a generation. The first stage is for a sufficient number of citizens to become normalized and acquire the courage and will to remove the firebrands from power and teach against that poison already taught to adults. The second stage is for the emergence of a next adult generation that has forgotten, or was never taught, both the old poisons and the sting of defeat. Each stage requires generational gestation.

A calculus might be developed that lets the process be estimated.
- iR.47 on January 18, 2023 · at 3:12 am EST/EDT
  
  I think the rule of tumb is, it takes 3 generations, for a society to overcome a civil war.
tonyE on January 18, 2023 · at 2:30 am EST/EDT

I think that many people out here in the US would be happy to push the button to take out DC… and perhaps Davos, the IMF, Oligarchs like Soros, you name it….
iR.47 on January 18, 2023 · at 3:07 am EST/EDT

I also don’t envisage a massive offensive to capture all of Ukraine. I think this may become a decade long drawn out affair. Russia has erected a wall of death in the East, and all enemies are welcome to crash into it.

I think Empires hope is that Russia will take over all Ukraine land, and they will wear out over time the ‘occupation’ with ‘freedom’ NAZI fighters. With the comming economic downturn in Europe, there will be fertile ground for recruitment. Not to mention among the exiled diaspora growing up in the west.

I believe, and as also Putin har instructed, force will be spent on cleaning up novorussia of Nazi remnants.

Nobody wants the burden of the blackhole Ukraine, not even the West. With the economic downturn, the extra human resources will only be a drag for the EU. Until the West accepts the new Russian territories as part of Russia, there can be no Nato membership. Without Nato membership, there can be no EU membership.

Ukraine is screwed, it will be the poorhouse of Europe. Looking East they will become green with envy, having a relative in Russia will be a lifeline.
gary on January 18, 2023 · at 3:14 am EST/EDT

I have no idea what the GS is planning to do. One thing for sure is that Putin again will surprise us all. He does have a genius for that. I’m on record on your comment section for years that Russia will take Novorussia, all the way to the Dnieper (which is very defendable), include Kharkov and go all the way to Odessa/Transistria. Straight line from Russian border, taking Kharkov Oblast all the way to the Dnieper, going south of course incorporating Zapo and Kherson Oblasts and then taking a western turn incorporating Nikolaev, Odessa and then Transnistria. So the shape of the new Russian lands will be a hockey stick. I have been proven right so far regarding the four official new oblasts of Russia. I will be proven right for the rest. The very wide Dnieper will be a natural dividing line. You can take that to the bank. Unless a political settlement is made Russia will go all the way to Lvov with one goal only, to destroy the Nazis and destroy the Ukrainian military. Once the job is finished they will withdraw to the “hockey stick” to defend it and restore it. There will be new military bases in all the new Russian oblasts with with their two missions to defend the new Russia and to regularly inflict pain on the rump Ukraine if they ever decide to begin to militarize again.
gary on January 18, 2023 · at 3:17 am EST/EDT

By the way it’s not that easy for crazy neocons to just order the joint chiefs of staff to begin to start a nuclear war with Russia. It’s just not that easy. The top brass have a lot of say in the matter. The top brass may be imperialists and jingoists but they’re not suicidal. I think they’re not as ideological as the neocons and they know what a nuclear bomb can do.
Stephen Galvin on January 18, 2023 · at 4:50 am EST/EDT

I think I must have a different type of mind to most people.
I ask myself, ‘If Russia wanted to invade the USA, how would it do it?’ Trying to think of how this would be accomplished illustrates the USA’s difficulty in Europe.
Yes it has occupied countries as mustering points, but there is no way Russia is going to allow the massing of forces sufficient to threaten the Motherland in those countries. And those countries, with the exception perhaps of Poland, are not stupid enough to draw Russian attention and fire, in this way.
I believe this is a corporate war, with the aim being to grab Russia’s resources, and from that perspective, there will come a time when everyone will weigh up the gains so far against the future risk, and compromises will be sought. People seem to to think the American government answers to the American people, when it has been obvious for years that the corporations buy the politicians. This means that the neocons are either bought and paid for, or they are useful idiots. Either way, when the corporations interests are seriously threatened, all of this will change tack.
Russia, under the incomparable VV Putin, has been preparing for years. He said years ago that he knows no matter who is in the White House, the USA’s strategic posture will not change. So all that, ‘ our Western Colleagues’ BS was just to buy time, though I believe he would have accepted an honourable detente.
He knew perfectly well that Merkel was also buying time, as to think he did not, means he watched events in Donbas for eight years hoping like a child that things would turn out all right, and that is not how an FSB Colonel thinks.
Moscow is holding back it’s most modern armaments, and the bulk of its forces, to prevent escalation. Not because an attack would force Nato’s hand, but because this uncommitted force is acting as a massive holding exercise.
The nuclear posturing at sea is also cooling NATO’s ardour. Who would be the first nation to risk a serious kinetic launch at one of its military bases?
Everyone in EU leadership circles knows exactly what Ukraines’ eventual fate will be. They also know that not one penny of the money they lend to Ukraine will ever be paid back. They know that the USA cannot help in a major war with Russia.
Personally, I am quite happy for Europe to be de-USAed. It might take ten more years of nonsense, but the writing is on the wall. The Anglo-American corporations will eventually have drained what they can from Europe, and they will simply go away when the money dries up. In the meantime, Europeans are being butchered on an industrial scale, and again we have the childish label of Neo Nazi being used to justify it. There are Nazis in there for sure, but most of the people being killed are just patriots, or conscripts, or the bewildered, and the poor. Same as always.
As the man with only one t-shirt hides in Kiev, young female conscripts are being killed. Mothers of young children, for Gods sake! I think that is disgusting, criminal action on behalf of the Kiev crime syndicate, along with starting this war in the first place. Zelensky is a war criminal, as is Biden, the EU leadership, and my own clown, Boris the psycopath, Johnson.
Please stop labelling the Ukranian people in this dehumanising way. Yes they have to be beaten, but share Peskov’s and VV Putin’s thought, ‘It is a tragedy.’
If you doubt my credentials, look at what I said on YTube in March of this year, and remember that I am in the belly of the beast
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PWOr4LXpMk0
Do not give in to hate. Recognise the real perpetrators, and insist that eventually, when the war is won, that they be held to account.
Jonabark on January 18, 2023 · at 11:23 am EST/EDT

My own thoughts have been similar to Andrei’s on the choices facing Russia. One aspect that is not addressed in the discussion about Odessa is the difficulty of liberating it without a level of destruction that would solidify and increase European and US levels of aggression and bring in fresh cannon fodder. Would Odessans see it as liberation from a future of debt peonage and oligarch corruption under Kiev or just as destruction leading to more war with costs outweighing benefits?
Rightiswrong on January 18, 2023 · at 2:54 pm EST/EDT

Any face saving measure offered by Russia will immediately be taken as a sign of weakness and desperation by the Western MSM and the Russophobic speech writers they employ.
It’s not called the Empire of Lies for nothing.
Robert Lindsay on January 18, 2023 · at 7:43 pm EST/EDT

Hi folks. Remember the Ukrainians being executed in Kupyansk by Nazis for “collaboration?” There was a video showing that a while back. I have now learned that all four of those killed were women (you can see that just by looking at them), and they were young women, at that. I have now learned that those were schoolteachers. So the video shows four young woman schoolteachers from Kupyansk being executed by shots to the head at the top of a hill, whereupon their bodies roll into the pit below. In Izyum, 2,000 people were hauled away on collaboration charges, including 93 schoolteachers. None have been seen since. All of them, including the 93 teachers, are probably dead. The Rada passed a bill mandating 15 years in prison for teachers teaching school while a city is controlled by Russia.

This is what the rainbow haired woke shitlib Globohomo decadent West is supporting in Ukraine. Nazis marching lady teachers up hillsides and shooting them in the head to roll down into a pit, exactly how their Nazi heroes used to execute people long ago.

https://beyondhighbrow.com/2023/01/17/video-shows-ukrainians-executing-four-schoolteachers-in-kupyansk-for-collaborating-with-russia/
John Gardner on January 18, 2023 · at 10:11 pm EST/EDT

What evidence is there in support of the view that Russia may be better of if delaying military action in Ukraine (as opposed to striking hard so to paralyse Ukranian military action)? How could it be beneficial to Russian war goals if NATO is given time to fill up Ukraine with more and more NATO fighters and hardware? Why did Russia not use its air superiority to strike hard enough to end the war within a short period of time? How can the residents in, e.g., Donetsk feel good about lukewarm military support by Russia if Ukranian bombardment of Donetsk 11 months of start of the Russian operation is worse than before 2022?
Jamie on January 19, 2023 · at 3:25 am EST/EDT

If giving NATO a faux victory in Ukraine can temporarily postpone WWIII it might be worth it. But if it is a fake peace like the Minsk Accords that just buys NATO time for it’s next move against Russia then why give them an inch? Take it all because where this war ends is where the new iron curtain will fall. Warn them if they attack Russia from any current NATO territory then just like in WWII that territory will become Russia as well (i.e. the Baltics and Eastern Poland.). I for one do not believe the Western Globalist Elite are suicidal. This war in Ukraine (and a new Cold War) seems to be exactly what they’ve wanted all along.
biro on January 19, 2023 · at 5:21 am EST/EDT

The financial system in the collective west entered a new phase of instability following the 2019 REPO crisis, and still no reset. Access to energy and resources is now contested and USD dominance becoming a thing of the past with a better trade/development model shaping up, things look grim for neoliberals/neocons whose talkfests seem to trail off to nowhere. Davos is attended by clowns, and mostly it’s a matter for existing leaderships to stay home to deal with the political fires breaking out across all fronts. It’s plain to see that the casino economies can’t compete with real economies that produce real goods. Putin says that Russia can balance the guns and butter; the west cannot. Who has more choices, options? The US seems to consistently pick the worst.
Srbalj on January 20, 2023 · at 6:22 am EST/EDT

I feel very strongly that much of the territory of present day Ukraine/404 is in fact of great importance to Russia for an entire range of reasons – from historical, ancestral, cultural, to geo-strategic, economic & security related. It was absolutely crucial for Russia to secure a land bridge to Crimea & secure its water supply. It is of great importance that Russia control the entirety of the Black Sea coastal area that falls within present Ukraine’s territorial boundary, & although one may argue Russia does not need additional farm land & chernozem (black soil), if solely for environmental protection from foreign plunder, I would say this is important to Russia. This is a territory where the original Russian state & nation were born, & it is critical that the bulk of this territory return to the mother country where it belongs. I would even include Galicia in that, because this territory is historically ethnically Russian also, those people that do not wish to live within a Russian state will leave, many already have in anticipation of that eventuality – those opportunistically pro-western will use this situation to move to the west now.
Woke American on January 22, 2023 · at 6:11 pm EST/EDT

My view on it is: take territory from Ukraine as fast as Russia can rebuild it economically.

This sends a VERY powerful message. And Russian propaganda would then be sending out pictures and articles about the rebuilt cities and towns and rural areas in every language.

This to me would emphasize the difference between the US being the number 1 arms seller, and Russia being in the top 2 (with China) in building civilizations and making things nice for people.

It would speed up the process of changing Western Ukraine from anti-Russia to neutral or even pro-Russia.