With the eyes of most people locked on the debate between Trump and Biden, the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh (NK) has received relatively little attention in the West. Yet, this is a potentially very dangerous situation. Just think about this: the Armenians are accusing the Turks of shooting down an Armenian Su-25 over Armenia (not NK!). If that is true, then some would say that this is huge news because this would mean that a NATO member state has committed an act of aggression against the member of the CSTO.
Does that mean that war between two biggest military alliances on the planet is inevitable?
Hardly.
In fact, it seems to me that neither the CSTO nor NATO have much enthusiasm for getting involved.
Let’s take a step back and mention a few basic things.
- Armenia has followed an anti-Russian course ever since the Soros-backed revolution of 2018.
- Azerbaijan is clearly allied with, and supported by, Turkey – a country currently in one form of political crisis or another with pretty much everybody else. Erdogan is clearly a loose cannon and he cannot be trusted under any circumstances.
- Under international law, Nagorno-Karabakh is part of Azerbaijan. For this reason, Armenia cannot appeal to the CSTO (just as Erdogan’s plea for NATO support against Russia when the Turks shot down a Russian Su-24M over Syria was rejected by the alliance).
- Militarily speaking, Azerbaijan has the quantitative and even the qualitative edge over Armenia, even if the latter does have some modern equipment. Yet, because neither side has a modern air force, it is not impossible that Turkey did send some F-16 to help the mostly outdated Azeri air force deal with Armenian Su-25s.
Check out the huge US Embassy compound in Erevan and ask yourself: what are all these guys doing all day long?
One would have imagined that Russia would immediately side with the Christian Armenia against the Muslim Azeris, but this time around there is some evidence that Russians have (finally!) learned some painful lessons from history, especially about Russia’s putatively “Orthodox” putative “brothers”. The sad truth is that, not unlike Belarus under Lukashenko, Armenia has, since at least 2018 been following the same type of “multi-vector” political course as Belarus. I would sum up this policy like this: “holding an anti-Russian political course while demanding the support of Russia”. The Russians did not like this any more in Armenia than they did in Belarus. But the big difference is this: while Russia cannot afford to “lose” Belarus, she has no real need of Armenia at all, especially an Armenia hostile to Russia.
That is not to say that Russians ought to back Azerbaijan. Why? Well, this has nothing to do with language or religion and everything to do with the fact that modern Azerbaijan is a political protégé of Erdogan’s Turkey, which is truly one of the most dangerous countries and political regimes out there, which Russia ought to deal with the caution of a snake-handler dealing with a particularly nasty and unpredictable pit viper. Yes, Russia has to engage with both Turkey and Azerbaijan, if only because these two are powerful countries (at least in a regional sense) and because they are almost always up to no good, especially Turkey.
Then there is the issue of the US role in all this. We can be pretty sure that the US is talking to both sides telling them that as long as they maintain an anti-Russian course they will get the support of Uncle Shmuel. There are two problems with this:
- Both sides know that the US is talking to both sides
- When push comes to shove, the support of the USA really matters very little
I would even argue that any major escalation of the conflict will prove to both parties that the US is long on promises and short on actually delivering on them. In sharp contrast, Turkey does deliver. Yes, recklessly and, yes, in violation of international law, but still – Turkey does deliver and they are not shy about confirming this.
Just like in the case of Belarus or the Ukraine, Russia could stop this conflict, especially if the Kremlin decides to use military force, but this would be terrible in political terms and I am confident that Russia will not intervene overtly. For one thing, this war is a clear case of a zero-sum game in which a negotiated compromise is almost impossible to achieve.
Furthermore, both sides appear to be determined to flight this one to the end, so why should Russia intervene?
Seems to be that remaining a neutral intermediary is the best and only thing Russia ought to do for the time being. Once the dust settles and once either side fully realizes that Uncle Shmuel is more about words than action, then maybe Russia can, once again, try to offer a regional solution, possibly involving Iran and excluding the USA for sure. But that can only happen later.
Right now both sides have painted themselves into a corner and both sides seem to be equally committed to a total military victory.
Conclusion: in this conflict, Russia has no allies and no friends. Right now the Azeris seem to be winning, but if Armenia engages its Iskander missiles or recognizes the independence of NK (both of which the Armenians are now threatening to do), this will get ugly and a Turkish intervention will become possible. Let’s see how (and even if) the USA will do something to help Erevan. If not, it will be interesting to see what will happen once the Armenians re-discover a well-known historical truth: Armenia cannot survive without Russia. And even if the Armenians come to this conclusion, I still would recommend that Russia be very careful in placing her weight behind either side of the conflict (especially since the Azeris have international law on their side).
In other words, I recommend that Russia act only and exclusively in her own geostrategic interest and let the entire region discover how much help Uncle Shmuel can really deliver. Specifically, I submit that it is in Russia’s national security interest to make sure that:
- Turkey remains as weak as possible for as long as possible
- The USA remains as weak as possible in the entire region
Right now the Pax Americana is as bad in the Caucasus as it is in the Middle-East. This is good for Russia and she ought to do nothing which would help Uncle Shmuel. Only once the US is out of the picture, including in Armenia, should Russia offer aid and support to a peace settlement between the two belligerents.
The Saker
Russia and Armenia are part of the CTSO, which means if any country attacks Armenia proper, Russia has to come defend her, or risk losing credibility.
After letting the zionist entity bomb Syria at will Russia doesn’t have any credibility.
Violence is often the only way to reduce historical ethnic tensions. Several hundred thousand dead on the armenian and azeri sides will definitely either cool hotheads or lead to millions of cold, dead hotheads.
Russia has nothing to gain from this conflict. There are too many fake or unworthy christians already among roman catholics, germanic protestants, and american evangelicals. To say that armenian christians are worthy of full support from other christians might be too much.
Anyway, politicians in armenia like georgia, ukraine and the baltics would rather side with the american empire and its crass european vassal countries.
The thing is russia does not benefit from armenia, armenia never voluntarily goes the extra mile to help or support russia, and armenian politicians, like lukashenko of belarus, would rather play to all sides which can give them the most money.
The saker’s analysis is correct: it is best for russia to talk to whatever remains of armenia and azerbaijan after they kill enough of each other, or wait for the american empire’s oligarchs to dictate on them, then loot them dry.
Becmi, unfortunately I do not agree with your suggestion: “Violence is often the only way to reduce historical ethnic tensions ….” as what you suggest is genocide. Yes, Azeris just like Kazakhstanis are Turkmen therefore they have always been supported by Turkey. Also, the indication is that Turkey was preparing this conflict since mid June? I believe, that Turkey, having extremely big problem with its economy and their Lira dropping down to practically nothing, feels it must divert internal attention away from its problems. Turks behavior in shooting down Su-25 is quite classic, as it knows that Armenia is not going to engage on two fronts.
For your entertainment, this is how they always behaved:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9q4rHwXWHVE
I want to say that in Georgia, Ukraine, and the Baltics not all people are Russophobic. However I agree with Saker, Russia should not interfere. The reason is the Empire wants to lure Russia into a costly war, which will drain Russia morally and economically. Like back in the 1980’s, when United States lured Soviet Union into Afghanistan to give USSR it own “Vietnam”. And the consequences are still with us today. As religious scholar, Karen Armstrong once remarked: “we live in the world, where there are no easy answers”
https://www.globalresearch.ca/afghanistan-forgotten-proxy-war/5676045
There are people who see what is happening, do not like it, and have no love for the Empire. I hope and I believe that people are slowly waking, and will realize just how deceived they were. Life is not easy there, and also unfortunately, the Empire has one advantage over Russia and China: Power of propaganda and narrative. Wrestling narrative away from the Empire will go a long way.
I will leave with a thought provoking article from late Andre Vltchek:
https://www.globalresearch.ca/in-countries-destroyed-by-the-west-people-should-stop-admiring-the-u-s-and-europe/5668956
The opening: “It may sound incredible, but it is true: in countries that have been damaged, even totally robbed and destroyed by the West, many people are still enamored with Europe and North America.”
@https://www.globalresearch.ca/in-countries-destroyed-by-the-west-people-should-stop-admiring-the-u-s-and-europe/5668956
The US military calls that “our cultural assault” and “ultimate biological warfare”. In 2014 after his Nazi coup Obama openly bragged about it: “Our ability to shape world opinion helped isolate Russia right away.”
The most effective PSYOP in history is Hollywood:
“Operation Hollywood: How The Pentagon Shapes And Censors The Movies”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FPZL5WTilRE
“First published From Parameters, Summer 1997, pp. 4-14: US Army War College
…
There will be no peace. At any given moment for the rest of our lifetimes, there will be multiple conflicts in mutating forms around the globe. Violent conflict will dominate the headlines, but cultural and economic struggles will be steadier and ultimately more decisive. The de facto role of the US armed forces will be to keep the world safe for our economy and open to our cultural assault. To those ends, we will do a fair amount of killing.”
https://web.archive.org/web/20070527092859/http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article3011.htm
“Chaos Theory and Strategic Thought
…
With this ideological virus as our weapon, the United States should move to the ultimate biological warfare and decide, as its basic national security strategy, to infect target populations with the ideologies of democratic pluralism and respect for individual human rights. With a strong American commitment, enhanced by advances in communications and increasing ease of global travel, the virus will be self-replicating and will spread in nicely chaotic ways. Our national security, therefore, will be best assured if we devote our efforts to winning the minds of countries and cultures that are at variance with ours. This is the sole way to build a world order that is of long duration (though, as we have seen, it can never achieve absolute permanence) and globally beneficial. If we do not achieve this ideological change throughout the world, we will be left with only sporadic periods of calm between catastrophic reorderings.
A tangible implication of this analysis is a sharp increase in support for the United States Information Agency, the National Endowment for Democracy, and the numerous private-sector exchange and educational programs. This programs lie at heart of an aggressive national security strategy.”
https://web.archive.org/web/20170117010919/http://strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pubs/parameters/Articles/1992/1992%20mann.pdf
“United States Policy Toward Eastern Europe
…
I have determined that the primary long-term U.S. goal in Eastern Europe is to facilitate its eventual reintegration into the European community of nations.
…
Reinforcing the pro-Western orientation of thier peoples.
…
Encouraging more private market-oriented development of thier economies, free trade union activity, etc.
…
Cultural and Educational Exchange and Informational Programs. Such programs will be employed to reinforce the pro-Western orientation of the populace in Eastern Europe, and communicate U.S. views to audiences there.”
https://web.archive.org/web/20120412183950/http://www.fas.org/irp/offdocs/nsdd/nsdd-54.pdf
Not if they attack Azer first. its a defensive treaty. Any base that fires at Azer from Armenia can be attacked by Azer. The treaty won’t allow a ground invasion or unprovoked attacks on Armenia that all.
Russia will not do anything. This fight has nothing to do with Russia.
Israel is the one selling arms to Azerbaijan and stoking this conflict. Today a fourth missile landed on Iranian soil.
This conflict is about destabilizing the Iranian border, just like the Afghan and Iraq wars.
More missiles will “accidentally” land in Iran, until one hits a village and kills some Iranians. Then Iran will have to open up yet another battle front.
Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Afghanistan, and soon Gharabagh.
They want to see how thin they can spread Iran’s resources. Russia will help the empire, just like they’ve been helping Israel in Syria.
CSTO has no article 5 like NATO does, so an attack on 1 does that mean an attack on all. CSTO is a political organization, it has no NATO like headquarters, military hierarchy and structure.
Andrei My Orthodox Brother,
Why would “Orthodox” Russia save Assad’s Syria under the guise of defending Russian interests, fighting the Wahhabis “Over There” and yes protecting the Syrian Christian minority from the head choppers and then turn around a half decade later and leave ethnic Armenian Christians in Nagorno Karabakh (Russia’s backyard) to the mercy of their enemies (including not only Azerbaijan but Turks and Wahhabis from the battlefields of Syria)? Maybe that would make sense in a realpolitik sense to teach Yerevan a lesson, but it does not seem just or Christian to abandon Armenian Christians to the real possibility of a 1915 genocide scenario once again engineered by the Turks. That is like saying my brother made some bad choices so I will allow my enemies to kill my nephews and nieces to teach him a lesson. If the Russia abandons the Armenian people in such a scenario the Armenian people will never forget it. They will be as anti-Russian as the Georgians are for generations if not forever. Does that mean Russia should invade Azerbaijan or Turkey? Of course not, but they should make clear to Azerbaijan and Turkey that they will not allow a repeat of 1915 in Nagorno Karabakh.
Russia is not the world’s policeman and show owes both Armenia and Azerbaijan exactly *absolutely nothing*. In the case of Armenia, they not only closed down all Russian schools, they also banned Russian TV stations and they basically prostituted themselves to Uncle Shmuel.
The fact that Russia is big, powerful, rich and with a world class military does absolutely NOT entail that she has to use any of these assets to help anybody else. Russia is most emphatically NOT the “protector of Orthodox world” or the “Gendarme of the Caucasus”. Been there, done that, and we call came to regret it.
Next, if you look at South Ossetia, or Crimea, or Syria – you will see that in all these cases these were friendly nations to Russia even BEFORE Saakashvili attacked. Even in the Donbass, Russia did help those who took up arms to defend themselves.
But the Armenians? What did they EVER do to deserve Russia’s help? Why should Russia spend a single kopek or, worse, a single life for Armenians who do not even realize that they exist as a nation only because Russia made that possible?
Finally, you say Russia might “lose” Armenia the way she “lost” Georgia.
They way I see it is this: Armenia and Georgia lost Russia. Now face the music.
The Saker
“They way I see it is this: Armenia and Georgia lost Russia. Now face the music.”
Love it. Thanks Saker.
But you say thanks to Saker just because you think that this war was provoked by Nagorno Karabakh and Russia’s doing nothing will favor Turk’s interests, right?
(Removed insult,MOD)
So you are saying that if ethnic Armenian Christian civilians are slaughtered in Nagorno Karabakh like their ancestors were over 100 years ago by the Turks it is not Russia’s problem or concern? That as someone who sees you as an Orthodox brother and looks up to you as such is a heartbreaking response and I hope there is not such a consensus in the Kremlin today. I understand Machiavelli and Realpolitik but I had hoped that there was at least one Christian Power left on earth that held itself to a higher standard both out of the love for God and for a love and duty for fellow man. I see that pure love and humanity in the Iranians and even a perverted supremacist version of it practiced by Israel (for fellow Jews) and Turkey (for Muslims and Turkic speaking peoples) but there seems not to be the same amongst us Christians. We will watch another Christian suffer and die and say, “it’s not my problem, it’s his own damn fault”. That my brother is why Christianity is fading because the love of Christians even for fellow Christians is growing cold. I used to comment under a different name. I have followed your blog for years now. I hope you see where I am coming from (even if it does not change your sentiments). God bless you and yours
my Orthodox Brother.
I believe you’re mistaken to think of Russia as a “Christian power”. It was true to a large extent of the Russian Empire, which intervened a lot on behalf of other Orthodox nations. But today’s Russia is not an Orthodox Empire, nor does it have an Orthodox Tzar… Think what you may of Putin; he’s Orthodox but he’s no intention to be a Tzar or “protector of Christianity”. Russia is majority Orthodox in name only (as you would imagine after all these communist years), and Orthodoxy doesn’t dictate its policy, internal or foreign, in any way.
My friend I am under no illusions that the Russian Orthodox Christian Empire of Tsar Nikolai died with Tsar Nikolai and the Royal Family when they were martyred by the Bolsheviks in 1918. I understand that the secular power that is modern Russia has no such mandate to be the be the protector of Armenia or any other nation or people solely on the basis of a historical bond based on a shared ancient Christian faith. However after Russia’s recent heroic deeds in helping save Syria from a terrible fate that seemed inescapable I was maybe under the false hope that Russia would never allow such a cruel fate befall Armenian Christian “people” (regardless of the foolishness and corruption in Yerevan) especially on Russia’s own doorstep. After Turkish aggression towards Russia and it’s protectorate in Damascus, I cannot believe that Russia would allow Erdogan’s Turkish horde to threaten a commonwealth nation (like Armenia) and provide Azerbaijan with not only military hardware and intelligence but air support and bands of head chopper Syrian Jihadis to wage war on the Armenian Christian people of Nagorno Karabakh. After Russia’s brave defense of Syria (and Putin saving Erdogan’s ass from a US backed coup) I did not believe such a thing was possible. I was wrong. Maybe I was wrong about Russia’s reasons for taking a stand against the Anglo-Zionist Empire in Syria. Maybe it was all just real politik and had nothing to do with what is ethical, right, just, humanitarian (and yes Christian). Forgive me for believing such noble reasons to go to war still exist. Forgive me for believing and hoping that the secular power that is Russia is tilting in the direction of being that noble, just, Christian Power once again. Despite the foolishness and corruption of their political leaders in Yerevan I have no doubts that the average Armenian family in the conflict zone is hoping and praying that if everything goes wrong and their military defenses fall and they face a situation not unlike the one they faced a century ago that a noble people would come to their defense. That noble people historically had always been the Russian People and the Russian Nation. The modern world is run by ruthless, merciless people. I am an American I know my country is run by ruthless, merciless people who care about nothing but money and power and view every policy decision as a means to that end. Forgive me for hoping and praying that maybe Russia is different not ruling by the code of Machiavelli or solely it’s own national interests (or that of it’s ruling class) but to a higher standard of ethics and humanitarianism grounded in a 1000 years of Christian Civilization. Forgive me for hoping and praying in these ever darkening times there would be a power on Earth to stand against the tide for those things that are higher in principle than just real politik.
God save Russia and Armenia. God save my beloved American Motherland. Holy Mother of God gather your Christian Children under your blue cloak (whether they be Russian or Armenian or Arab or Ethiopian) and dash the head of the serpent who seeks to devour them. Amen.
Well what can I say brother… I think the Constantine Era of Christian empires is in the past… But invisibly, I believe, the Mother of God still looks after Russia as Her lot (you would know the story of “Derzhavnaya” icon, right? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Our_Lady_Derzhavnaya).
And you may be consoled by the prophesy of St. Paisios of Mount Athos about Hagia Sophia – he even mentioned Armenians and Kurds as the reason for the war and eventual demise of Turkey – it looks like these historic events unfold before our very eyes looking at the last few years…
I thought so too, but the bitter truth is that it’s pure self-interest.
Don’t worry friend, even though we have yet to see the worst of the current conflicts, there is light at the end of the tunnel. The Armenians will be one of the few nations that will see some benefit.
Peace be with you.
Why did the “orthodox brother” stab Russia in the back by inviting the Americans to use Armenia as a tool against Russia. What possible justification do the Americans have to build such a huge embassy in Yerevan – other than to stir up trouble for Russia?
Armenian politicians, Belarusian politicians and others need a good lesson. The people in these countries have to wake up. The alternative is to become like Ukraine – with Jewish presidents and prime ministers in series.
Did the average Armenian stab Russia in the back or did a clique of politicians in Yerevan stab Russia in the back? I am an American am I personally responsible for every damn transgression of the creatures in Washington? As we know there are many peoples around Russia who still hold Russia and Russians responsible for the crimes of the Communist authorities during the Soviet Era and I believe that too unjust.
Yes they did, just as average Bulgarian, Serb and many others (Georgians, Ukrainians, Belorussians, Romanians…) did just buy supporting governments who are hostile to Russia.
Armenia didn’t close Russian schools or TV channels. That is just a half truth. Back in early 1990’s when the Soviet Union collapsed the newly independent Armenia just chose not to fund the Russian language schools. Before that it was the Soviet Union that was funding those schools. If Russia desired then they could fund it themselves but they never did (Russians could hardly afford to buy their own bread in those days). Why was Armenia obligated to fund Russian language schools ?
And Russian TV’s back in early 1990’s were pretty backward and monotonous and uninteresting. Russians and generally speaking everyone else back then tried to make sense of life. And up to this day Russia mostly copies American TV programs and games and even songs.
Russia and Armenia only have a strategic win win relationship by which Armenia’s security is assured from a Turkish attack from the West and Russia gets to keep Turkey in check in the South Caucasus.
Sure, it’s that simple, you don’t need russian schools – don’t pay for it. You don’t need russian TV – don’t pay for it. You don’t need russian (fill in what you want) – do. not. pay.
So if you DO need russian help… obviously, pay, beg, and pay once more. Nothing personal, just business, as you wanted.
But what if Armenia begs for Russia’s help with the right concessions? Would Russia then intervene and help Armenia including warding off Erdogan?
While Arménia needs Russia more than it needs Arménia, Armenians should not underestimate Armenia’s importance to Russia. If Turkey occupies Armenia, Ankara will cut off Russia from Iran and succeed in his dream of building a Turkic wall (from Istanbul to China) on Russia’s southern tier… thought this was an interesting angle .. too many angles to this conflict ..
Just talking to my Armenian Friend,he claim,that Armenia lost 100 thousands ,fighting with Russians, in WW2.so Russia is obligated to help them, also Stalin gave Baku the territory, where 95% Armenians live,but that was then,I believe that Armenians overstepped the boundaries of friendship with Russia,by their very aggressive anti Russian Actions
Armenia then should throw the US out of their country, if they realise now that the USA will not fight for them. Why did they invite the war crazy Yanks into their nation, if not to hurt Russia?
Russia shouldn’t care a bit for Armenian security, if the Armenians themselves don’t care for Russia.
Syria invited Russia and asked for help. Let’s talk when Armenia does it.
Why didn’t they join the Russia-Belarus Union?
“80 percent of the Armenian population would like to join the Union.”
http://web.archive.org/web/20040423145117/http://oag.ru/news/news000421.html
Yes, Russia doesn’t need to try to be a US-style policeman that directly involves itself in every conflict. Doing as they’re doing in terms of seeking to mediate is the right course IMO.
…I recommend that Russia act only and exclusively in her own geostrategic interest and let the entire region discover how much help Uncle Shmuel can really deliver. Specifically, I submit that it is in Russia’s national security interest to make sure that:
1) Turkey remains as weak as possible for as long as possible
2) The USA remains as weak as possible in the entire region
Selling and delivering S-400s to Turkey does NOT weaken Turkey, but greatly strengthens it! Offering MiG-35s, Su-35s, or Su-57s for sale to Turkey also does not weaken Turkey, rather it encourages Erdogan to continue to act arrogantly. I also read somewhere that Russia has offered to remove any programming “kill switch” from the S-400’s software, thus allowing the S-400s to be used against Russian aircraft, and worst of all, allow NATO to reverse engineer it. Put simply, selling Russia’s best weapons to Turkey goes against your advice.
That being said, I agree the current Armenian government deserves to suffer a bit for its insulting behaviour towards Moscow. I also believe this current small scale war is meant to distract Moscow from NATO attempts to integrate the Republic of Georgia into NATO, and thus threaten Moscow with a NATO conquest of Abkhazia & South Ossetia.
False. Perhaps it’s Russia’s way of STOPPING Georgia from joining NATO. Imagine the war getting wider and Russia intervenes, steam rolling Georgia as well.
And let’s imagine Russia uses the opportunity to finally get rid of the millions Georgians and Armenians (and please kick out also the Ukrainian свидомые заробитчане too) who migrated to the Russian Federation. They are a social and criminal problem for a long time already. No reason to wait until they will become a national security problem overhelming FSB capacity!
These two communities are creative and productive members of the Russian society.
What is false, the fact Georgia continues to claim that Abkhazia & South Ossetia as their territories? Is it false that NATO head Jens Stoltenberg is publicly pushing Georgia to join NATO? Is it false the Rand Corporation has published a report encouraging NATO to provoke Russia in the Caucasus, in order to force Moscow to waste resources? Given the above facts, it is quite logical to assume Georgia would demand NATO forces to help reconquer Abkhazia & South Ossetia, pushing the “Russian aggression” narrative.
And yes, I agree with you that Georgia + NATO would be crushed by a determined Russian attack!
Sometimes I think Erdogan has blackmail material on the Greatest Geopolitical Grandmaster Genius the Universe Has Ever Seen.
Wow didn’t expect this, I have to completely disagree here sorry. First of all in geopolitics no one should rely on “allies” it’s al about maximizing self-interests and so does Russia. Russia would be absolutely naive and foolish not to support Armenia here. If Armenia to lose just Karabakh and forced to live with loss of that province then there is nothing that would stop Armenia from fully turning away from Russian orbit and maybe even hold Russia responsible for its loss as it was Russia that in 1994 didn’t allow Armenia to further force Baku to sign the recognition of NKR. That would be really bad for Russia because they already lost Georgia (soon to be added to NATO according to NATO chief himself). Armenia might follow and form a formidable block against Russian interests in the Caucasus and the middle east. So that’s a shitty scenario for Russia. Another scenario let’s say Armenia is screwed entirely by Turkey and Azerbaijan then no doubt Turkic alliance will grow in that region and push out any influence Russia has in the Caucasus heck even in Syria. What’s to say they won’t further reignite the Chechen rebellion? Maybe unite with the Tatars eventually? Google for pan-Turkic plans you’ll see what they want. Turks after all sponsored the Chechen wars against Russia in the 90ies. Turkey has always, since its conception been the regional adversely of Russia (the spiritual successor of the Byzantine empire) and that won’t change anytime soon. The only reason why Turkey exists is because the west wants Russia to have a serious adversary. Stalin wanted to attack Turkey after the 2nd WW but the “allies” denied. They like a strong (but not too strong) adversary for Russia. Giving the Turks more power by abandoning your perhaps last allies in the region is the dumbest thing Russia should do. And I’m not even talking about the many advantages Russia could have by using the large Armenian diaspora to gain favours in many western countries if Russia to fully support Armenia. Or the central geographic position that would enable Russia to maximize its influence in the middle east. The only reason Armenians are recently growing cold towards Russia is becaue they feel betrayed. Russia didn’t care about international law recognizing Abkhazia, South Ossetia and even Crimea. But when it comes to Karabakh Russia is afraid of international law? Give me a break. Azerbaijan is only a power because of their oil. How long before it’ll become obsolete? Armenia is ritch by its peoples intellect, creativity and inventivenes. That’s a resource that’ll never deplete. With most of the former Soviet republics turning away from Russia, Armenia even after a revolution remained a strong regional partner. They remained in the EEU and in the CSTO. Unlike Ukraine, Georgia and the rest. The advantages Russia could have by supporting Armenia are countless. Russia already abandoned Armenains once in the 1st WW, don’t be a fool don’t make the same mistake again. Armenia is loyal if you support it. Turks inherently hate the Russians, don’t be naive Ivan!!
“Russia would be absolutely naive and foolish not to support Armenia here.”
Sorry Hans but for the following reasons that would be fatal to Russia:
– Armenia is militarily occupying internationally recognized Azeri territory in violation of UNSC Resolutions 822, 853, 874, and 884
– Armenia officially acknowledges N-K and the surrounds which it occupies as Azeri territory since it hasnt recognized its independence
– Russia knows full well that Armenia is the aggressor in this instance
– So far Armenia has been attacked *not on its own soil but in territory it occupies
– Russia would be acting against international law if it were to do so
Given the 2018 Armenian color revolution which turned the country to towards the US if Russia was to do as you suggest it risks Armenia playing the US and Russia off against each other – risking a confrontation between NATI & CSTO in a worse case scenario
My suggestion is: just as Russia did with China and India (after the June border skirmish) recently brought their FMs to Moscow to get them to agree on no further border skirmishes, Russia should bring the FMs of both Azeri & Armenia to Moscow and get them to do the same (to cut the US out of the picture) then rally the international community to recognize N-K as Azeri territory (which would also enhance Russia-Turkey cooperation)
None of the reasons you mention would be fatal for Russia. They weren’t fatal for Russia in Abkhazia, they weren’t fatal in South Ossetia, they weren’t even fatal in Crimea. Of all these mentioned regions Kabarakh has more legitimacy to be recognized as independent, both historically and politically. There are several UN articles also on self determination and resolution of the conflict without military aggression, all of which Azerbaijan has violated. Including attacking the territory of the Republic of Armenia. Thus Russia has more than enough right to intervene internationally. Not to mention the fact that Turkey is actually meddling and sending in terrorists from the Middle-East. Saying Armenia is the aggressor is absolute nonsense and show of your poor understanding of the full history of the conflict. Russia itself ignored Soviet established borders, why should it abide by them in Karabakh? If Azerbaijan has the right to part from the Soviet Union, so has Karabakh the right to self determination from Azerbaijan.
The question isn’t really “could Russia intervene?” but more so “should Russia intervene?”. I say definitely yes, for it’s own sake! Nothing good will result from the increase of Turkic influence over the Caucasus and the Middle East for Russia. How quickly are people forgetting the outright Turkish aggression towards Russia? Have you forgotten who sponsored the Chechen jihadists in the 90ies? Have you forgotten who sponsores anti-Russian terrorists in Syria? Have you forgotten who shot down Russian fighter pilot? Have you forgotten who together with Azerbaijan created an alternative to Russian gas-flow into Europe? Have you forgotten how Erdogan outright claims Crimea is Turkish? Have you forgotten who murdered Russian ambassador? Have you forgotten the anti-Russian government Turkey supports in Lybia? Have you forgotten who is in the way of the Pan-Turkic dream? If Turks were in the position to harm Russia for good they would. The best thing Russia can do for itself is to supports its allies, secure its last bastion in the Southern Caucasus, contain the growth of Turkey and show other former republics that alliance with Russia means something more than a last resort survival tactic.
As for the Color revolution, again read my comment, I don’t think you understand the Armenian color revolution. Armenians are loyal to Russia, Armenia is loyal to Russia, all it needs is Russia to support it to maximize its advantages. Armenia should be to Russia what Israel is to US. While US fully supports Israel, Russia unfortunately fails in this department and it only contributes to the further strengthening of Russia’s historic rivals the Turks, which is exactly what west wants. Why do the dirty job, if you can let the mad erDog out. And this time with much stronger Turkey it would be a much bigger threat to Russia than even during the cold war when Turkey hosted US nukes directed at the Soviet Union.
The pieces will come together once a broad war takes shape. Remember, at the onset of WW2, Germany experienced gain after gain all to lose everything toward the end.
Good reply. I agree I dont understand his short sightedness. I hope the russian leadership sees things the way he does.
Russia will protect Armenia of course. But cannot protect NK at least cannot do that openly.
Also Armenians have to change their attitude toward Russia and abandon their ilussions about West.
Personally, I think it is good from Saker side to allow debate in this way, Provocative article and than reactions. Leaving the Russian services an opportunity to see people’s answers. After their politics in Donbas, he no longer has to convince them of anything. The fans in the comments are different.
So, for russian fans to cover their weakness is easiest to say that others betrayed them. Instead of saying, today we think pragmatically. Like Westerners, like Chinese. We will no longer die for others. One can see, that here on the site are more Russia supporters living abroad. And that is fine, but then stop talking about some Orthodox and holly Russia. Because one denies the other. Strange isn’t it or is it the fear? But then they would have deny their character, and that doesn’t go with Russian soul. One thing is the geostrategy of relationships, the other are emotions. Thus, the Russian policy of pipes and life on trade with raw materials does not change. Some people are slaves of the habit if the job brings a nice income. Forgetting that while cheering for Russia, they are cheering for the business shareholders, for whose interests they have been left without almost all the allies in the neighborhood. According to Saker, the Belarusians are also to blame, but because of the ground line of breakthrough that NATO would get by taking Belarus (between 900-1200 km of maneuver space), it is good for the Russians to react there. Strange proactive politics but should be respected. For me it looks like they are permanently defending themselves, and that is not how the world power should react. Moreover, to forget the whole history and to say how in 2018 the Armenians left Russia and went to Soros the Liberal (along all other verticals of power in the West) is also superficial from my point of view. It looks like Armenians are not smart enough to see what Soros policy has brought to other countries before them. For example, Serbia. No one asks for the opinion of the people (what the allies should do), but looks at what the ruling class is doing, elements thrown in by the west, result of rigged elections. Why, maybe situation suits them. How it is even possible for this to happen in the Russian zone of interest, no one asks. To blame the people for incompetence of responsibles after flirting with autocrats and corrupt leadership. Or it is completly different, russian leadership are capable people, but the policy of the Russia has changed and the old rules do not apply anymore. Pragmatism is nurtured. However, they are not telling that to people directly yet. Only indirectly in political protocols that regular people don’t understand, and their government skillfully hides. They sad to Serbs fe, that Yeltsin was in power and that they should not ask why things happend. As if the security policy was not determined by the services that were still alive. They are trying to explain that russian services disappeared for a while when the CIA was writing the Constitution. No, this is not the answer. The answer is….the Russian elite wanted new system, the Russian services, and so they agreed to the new system. Pragmatism. How much the people od Russia support it is another matter. There are no more allies today. Just interest. Look at the relationship between Turkey and America or other EU countries in NATO. Russia has other priorities today.
Agreed.
And this will be Russia’s Doom. You can have all the fancy weapons, but if you have no soul you will end up like the US is today. Eventually.
For a long time, people convinced themselves of something that not does not exist. At least not in this Russia. I remember that they were one of the first to recognize Croatia. There was no word about Krajina for so many years. So it will be the same with Nagorno-Karabakh. Life goes on. They have excellent connections with the Croats when they settle Agrokor’s debts of a few billion. It is not the fault of the Russians, but kids who believe in fantasies.
On the other hand, Turkey has made enough enemies in the environment that Russia is not important in the future war. It is easier to trigger one for its interests. BUT it would be nice to give others the opportunity to buy good weapons, which they gave to Turkey. The money will be found, but to give what is asked for, AND not to drag away buying a time as before. They are not in position to take care about other people souls anymore.
“It is not the fault of the Russians, but kids who believe in fantasies.”
Are you saying all those articles about Russia, Iran and China being the good guys are just fantasies we believe in?
Yes, I belive that they are just fighting for their place in the global system created by same bosses. Maybe there is a authentic line in russian army and church that everybody dream about, but I dont have to much knowledge to write about it. There is a red line for serious nation, however there is no one for the international union. Russia is one of them. The nation-state is driven by the interests of people but the international one by international elites. You can’t expect help from it, if those elites has no interest. What can Armenia offer the Russian business elite? Russian people are irrelevant here. That’s what it’s about. The same goes for China.
Furthermore…All these stories about a so-called reconciliation are pure nonsense, since crime is remembered by serious nations. It only benefits big powers when they need in/stability. We know that very well in the Balkans. I don’t know what the reletionship is between the Armenians and Turkey today, but I think that Azerbaijan is used here as a proxy soldier of someone else..Someone who supports NATO activity on Iran’s borders who is in moment completly surrounded, and everybody keep quiet about that.
Djole,
The Russians did a debt-for-equity swap with Agrokor/ Fortenova Group (the new name). This is not debt forgiveness! Fortenova is now divesting itself various business units (like their frozen food business) in order to raise cash for their new owners. No such thing as a free lunch.
Re Krajina and the events in the 1990s, that was the Yeltsin/ Kozyrev clique…why mix this up with Putin’s current policy?
Sorry, no pasaran for trivialisation. None serious intelectual can say….. in the place of such a powerful country with a powerful service was this man at that time….we couldn’t do anything. I’m sorry … that can’t pass. Otherwise we can say that it was Clinton or someone else in the history of some other countries. I will not remind you about history. The services ran everything, not the puppets. They knew who they were appointing and why. The service is the deep state of every state.
What about the military attack helicopters repair for the Croats? Let us hear……but please without subjective bias.
The service made an (accurate) assessment that it was a wrong time for direct confrontation with The Empire.
What about the military attack helicopters repair for the Croats?
Things are changing but you don’t see it or the speed of change is not good for you.
This is English site, most of Russians, or Serbs, on this site are leaving in some western countries, they are here because they read and speak English, not because they like western way of life and don’t care about Slavic, orthodox Union. Because I do and personally think that we all need to go back to Serbia, Srpska …. sooner or later. You do overestimatе role and power of Russia (population, economy) , there is several countries in Europe alone withe stronger economy and comparable population, and yet you are expecting Russia acts without thinking twice when it comes protecting their interests in other cuntries.
Two decades ago Russia was still fighting wars within own border. Today Russia is in Ukraine, Syria, Georgia protecting either Russian people or Russian interests. Russia is back-stabbed by Bulgaria, Montenegro, Armenia..even Serbia, don’t forget that. Navalny happened just days ago, did you see how many enemies Russia has just in Europe. Take it easy, things are getting better, Russia is getting sronger, enemies weaker…
You are contradict yourself, how Turkey can be weak after helping Azerbaijan to win this war? And US weak? Armenia would seek NATO protection right away after this, Georgia and Armenia would be part of NATO and rightly so, Russia would be surrounded and again, rightly so!!!
Turkey is getting stronger and more influential with every victory that it wins for its proxies.
I don’t think that Turkey is gaining anything from the wars it is intervening in: Libya, Syria, Iraq and now Nagorno Karabak. The only thing it is getting is problems and I think it will be defeated from all sides with its tail between its legs when the Erdogan government comes to an end.
Saker, here you would have LOTS of these who will be “pushing their boats” without any understanding or ability to see the actual situation on the ground. What you have described here is absolutely spot on, unfortunately not many of them could understand it or even comprehend that. I think it takes a Russian! Russia IS supporting Armenia (not that they deserve it) for purely geopolitical reasons. Have you seen the last of these Azeris “cauldrums” that it got from the Armenian side? It should tell one everything one needs to know and who is behind it. Turkey has been previously told to remove it’s head-choppers from Libya immediately, so where else could they relocate that ghastly lot – to Azerbaijan of course! The loose cannonball, aka Erdogan, will be once again brought to hell by, who else, RUSSIA!
Dear Katerina,
in plain Russian: здесь всё расставлено по полочкам (conclusions incl. Georgia from 11:00 time stamp)
https://youtu.be/uSm3_u-7Mvg
Please bring it also to Saker’s attention – that fresh new video is worth of translation and publishing on his blog. As Mikheev is always a more realistic person than Starikov for sure.
You are welcome.
the master
Yes, I watch and listen what both of them have to say, both very good political analysts (politologs) and I often wish the rest of the world could hear them. That could give them a “Russian perspective” on the events that they don’t get otherwise. Nikolai Starikov books are translated in few languages I believe, as for Sergei Mikheev, even as a russian speaker, one needs to have full concentration as his speaking manner is like a machine-gun. Both cover very important issues and say very intelligent and needed to be said things. Although I have noticed that lately, Mikheev has developed a bit of the PGR syndrome. That meant Paul Graig Roberts. “Russia should response immediately and that response should be strong! Otherwise it just invites more attacks against it”. We have heard that before.
I just wish some people here would stop being this “all knowing armchair experts” and think a bit harder. As I have said already, Russia is dealing with deranged imbecills, who want to start a war, so OK, Russia responds in kind – where is that going to lead? It’s like trying to deal with an agressive drunk in a pub looking for a fight – do you engage with him and fight or you just wait until he finish staggering around the place and collapses in drunken heap under some table. What would you do? I think Russia and her President doing everything absolutely right. Only not many people around here can fully comprehend that and appreciate that self-control. The alternative is unthinkable.
I’ve been reading most of the comments here and thinking how a good deal of commentators gives off an impression of being rather gloomy and pessimistic about Russia and its role in international politics. Some are driven by emotions such as disappointment by Russian policy.
Well, I can’t pretend that this view ‘Russia has to act forcefully to send a clear signal to its foes and allies alike’ doesn’t have some merit. Especially because Russia is often perceived (and perceptions are extremely important) as doing little of helping its allies or those friendly to her or at least the enemies or her enemies.
I also don’t doubt that you’re right and many commentators lack the understanding of the Russian mindset and the way Russia acts. It’s true even for the countries which share a lot with Russia and whose people are friendly to Russia (such as Serbia) – in essence a lot of stereotypes about Russia and little real knowledge that would help shed light on why does Russia act the way it does.
As for the subject at hand, I said in another comment that Russia has quite a few means on its disposal to help Armenia (without getting into the debate of how and why and whether it should or should not help Armenia), in short – there will be a lot going on behind the scenes. Intervening directly is a measure of last resort when everything else has failed but I don’t think that the situation now warrants a Russian intervention and by thus I mean getting involved in the conflict on the side of the Armenians. It would be foolish and contrary to Russian policy in the region. Azerbaijan, we should remember, is an important country for Russia in this region which is why any sort of overt support for Armenia by Russia would only serve to push Azerbaijan straight into Turkish embrace.
What is imperative for Russia is to rein in Erdogan, and Russia has the means to do it.
Which country does Russia back on the issue of Nagorno Karabakh?
What is Russia’s position on how to resolve the Nagorno issue? or a preferred outcome?
What is the US offering to the Azeris and the Armenians to keep them on the US side?
What advantages/benefits do these countries offer the US and Russia?
What are Turkey’s interests/ambitions in backing one side in this conflict?
Did Russia know or suspect that this would happen and let it be or did it come as a total surprise to Russia?
What If US mediates an armistice and sends troops to enforce it?
Finally a clever remark. All the conflict is orchestrated if not staged. POTUS is busy with elections but not the US deep state. Americans are flexible enough to use anyone in their interests, be it by bribing or threathening. They will cordially back up Erdogan to let him do the dirty job and then stab him in the back. They will make promises to Armenian minions and then show them the middle finger when arranging the settlement with Azerbaidjan. Of course Baku will have to pay back for this services – do not forget there is a lot of oil in the Caspian…
And on top of this all the region will be taught a lesson not to screw with the USA, so not only Georgia will be attracted (forced to join) to NATO.
Somehow Kremlin has to learn from the US win-win strategy.
How? Not to play the “international law” tune finally. Nobody cares! Is Russia an empire? Then make your own rules and do not play the game set up by the US crooks! It is never too late to bomb Lvov or Tiflis. Follow purely Russian interests for once, not the ones of Washington (i.e. Tel Aviv’s). Or soon you will get a head ache with Kazakhstan and Japan….but probably that is the “clever plan of Putin”?
To master
The ” US win-win strategy”?! What exactly have they won?! And it is not an Empire. Perhaps in their wet dreams.
Russia does not need to escalate any situation in this world as that can lead to the DESTRUCTION of this world. Why you people CANNOT understand that simple thing?!
Katerina you are spot on about Russia’s calculated restraint being a key factor in stopping world destruction. However, load sharing/balancing is a critical safety measure, hence Russia must learn shed some load to it’s enemies , for they too will perish in a nuclear war. Sometimes it takes a quick timely slap like Iran did to the US in Iraq to get the other guy in line. Edorgan needs such a wake up call before it is too late.
”Russia does not need to escalate any situation in this world as that can lead to the DESTRUCTION of this world. Why you people CANNOT understand that simple thing?!”
The funny thing here is that these folks are 100% unperturbed in their doom and gloom even as they face utter setbacks and defeats of the ’invincible’ West. Lukashenko was a ”dead man walking”, Putin was a ”sell-out”, and Tikhanovskaya the latest ”success story”. I guess you could call it another variety of ’masturbatory fantasies’ about reliving the glorious 1990s when Russia supposedly was down and out. Russia is perceived as an enemy and/or fraud, depending on whatever contrived relationship with Western supremacist dogma that’s guiding these second-guessing specimina.
So they continue their noises — very much in accordance with the ”full spectrum impotence” of Trotskyism and Anarchism, where Stalin forever plays the same role as Putin does according to the capitulationists in our midst.
Equally telling is how they keep silent about the state of the West. The West’s 99% are being unceremoniously ditched by the 1% and those who are too dense to connect the dots believe that’s a sign of strength. The West is on its last legs, and Russia won’t save it — sorry.
The win win strategy is creating and maintaining chaos at your enemies door step. Winning not good, costs money. The chaos is the ultimate goal. Russia must prevent chaos. How? I just told you!
I agree with Saker on this topic, why should Russia fight for people who have forgotten her sacrifices few years after.
Monuments of fallen Russian sons demolished by primitive western cunts..Poland, Ukraine, same in Bosnia&Croatia where monuments of partizans were smashed for wrong surname(Srbian).
In Ljubljana cemetery we have Zhuravli monument, on Vršič Russian chapel, in Murska Sobota monument of Slovene partizan and Red army soldier with Ppsh,field guns possing on main sqare…forever-navsegda!
I bow to mother Russia for their help, spasibo from Slovenia!
No bombing recalcitrant countries like the Ukies & Tbilisi in Georgia is completely against Russia (and China’s) longterm strategic & security interests which is to unify and economically integrate all (or as much as practicable) Eurasia (i.e. Asia and the peninsula called Europe – as much as the Indian subcontinent is a peninsular. IOW if India is referred to as a ‘subcontinent’ then also political – not geographic Europe which extends to the Urals – should also be considered a subcontinent)
(PS that wisecrack about Europe being a peninsular is for Katerina – I hope she finds it mildly amusing)
Regards
Thank you Saker for this sound analysis. I probably missed something with regard to Belarus. In which way did Belarus hold an anti Russian political course? Did you write anything about that?
Lukashenko was trying to cozy up to Europe with hopes of being seen as a democratic ruler, not a dictator, and prevent a color revolution. It obviously didn’t work.
“Turkey remains as weak as possible for as long as possible”
How is that achieved by making turkey and majority gas transit hub – turkstream, and selling them the newest weapons – s400, su57???
To keep turkey weak wouldnt you want them paying top dollars for useless patriot missiles and the f35 flying brick???
It’s a legitimate question. For a dangerous and unpredictable country, Turkey indeed has considerable power projection capabilities which should worry everyone.
Then again, I believe Erdogan is playing fast and loose, he has overextended himself and Turkey’s resources. It seems more like a gambit on his part rather than a grand plan, but the moment is still opportune for him. In the words of one analyst: ‘The power to create events can back like a bumerang.’ Only the great powers have the luxury of creating events and absorbing the negative consequences of failure.
1. If Armenia has not even recognised “Artsakh” (the self proclaimed Nagorno Karabakh) it it has no right to defend it.
2. Sultan Erdogan may have crashed the lira but under him the Ottoman-jihadi alliance has not weakened itself, quite the contrary. The slave trading so called GNA of Libya is fully beholden to him, so are the Azeris, not less the Muhaysinic Emirate of Idlibistan. And despite all the whining the Ottomans still have the largest and in terms of results the best military in NATO – far surpassing the vaunted Amerikastani Empire – and NATO isn’t about to kick it out.
3. Trying to “teach a lesson” to Armenia won’t get it to run back to Russia, but instead sign up with NATO. Russia can do without either a NATO state on its southern underbelly or a jihadi headchopper ministate under Ottoman protection. Or both.
3. Trying to “teach a lesson” to Armenia won’t get it to run back to Russia, but instead sign up with NATO
Agreed. In fact a friend of mine just emailed a copy of this memo by Gen V Gerasimov, Chief of General Staff Russian Federation, to Putin regarding the immediate course of action that Russia should take:
“Begin
1. Caspian Flotilla to immediately despatch a squadron of Kaliber-carrying ships and troop transports to stand off Baku, latest at sun up tomorrow (local time).
2. Brigade already in Armenia to move to Armenia-Azerbaijian (henceforth Ar-Az) border ASAP. On the way through Yerevan, troops — to be commanded by an English-speaking officer — to be despatched to surround the US embassy, staffers to be held as guests of the Russian Federation.
3. Reinforcements including S-400 and fighter aurcraft to be sent to Armenia forthwith from Southern Military District by overflying Georgia if necessary. If the Georgians resist, that will be enough pretext for us to take Tblisi. Units around Georgia put on stand-by for move south.
4. The speed of execution will take everyone by surprise including, we predict, some members of your cabinet.
5. To paraphrase US General George Armstrong Custer, ‘There are not enough Azeris in the world to defeat the Russian Army’, including Azeris in that rump Azerbaijan territory at the south-west corner of Armenia.
6. Do not worry about response of Nato or Turkey. We’ll think of something. Iran will remain neutral as far as Azerbaijan is concerned.
End”
Good thing my wife roused me from my nap.
That ‘Ferocious Bear’ scenario will probably provoke nuclear war but hey, at least the Armenians will love Russia to bits till the Day of Judgment which unfortunately for the rest of us will just inch that much closer.
Should Armenia even attempt this, the threat of Russia closing their borders for Armenian worker in Russia should suffice.
There are several things in this article that need correction.
Armenia already knows that at this time they can’t survive without Russia.
Russia has not stayed neutral in this conflict. The Russian heavy cargo planes had been transferring hundreds of tons of weapons to Armenia for several weeks before this conflict began.
Armenians and Russians were not caught off guard by the Azeri attack.
Armenians had placed dummy S-300 and other anti aircraft systems and even tanks in dugout positions so that most of the stationary targets that Azeris hit were not real weapons systems.
Thousands of radical Muslims fighters (if) transferred to Azerbaijan are not going to make any difference. These are not the Kurds or the demoralized Syrian army. This is the professional highly organized and well armed Armenian army that has won many victories against this adversary before. And back then Armenians had less weapons.
If Azerbaijan is winning why is there a total blackout of social media in Azerbaijan and no blackout of any social media in Armenia ? What are they trying to hide if they are winning ?
Azeris have “international law” on their side? What is that ? And when did that ever apply to countries who don’t give a d*** about the so called international law ?
Both Armenia and Azerbaijan finally have come to realize that this conflict doesn’t have diplomatic solutions. That is why the military is at play.
If Russia didn’t need Armenia then they would dump Armenia in 5 seconds. This has already happened in 1914, when Russians realized they don’t need Armenians and they left western Armenia and Turks entered armenian towns and slaughtered everyone.
This is very good text.
Of course Russians will not abandon Armenians. They cannot do that but Russians do not make to much noise about it like Turks do.
And of course they knew about this coming offensive.
I will say again what I said before, maybe problem can be temporary solved by peacekeeping troups form Russia, Belorussia and Kazakhstan in Nagorno Karabakh.
Maybe this would be acceptable to both sides in conflict.
Of course, Turks to be removed from this region.
There is not any solution otherwise except bloodshed forever
I agree with you on this and Galust’s comment makes sense. There are reports of Russian intelligence support to Armenia, so there’s no way to think that they wouldn’t provide military aid at this juncture.
However, Armenia has to make sure that they’ll stay pro-Russian in the future and not backstabbing like they’ve been doing since 2018.
Stationing Russian peacekeepers would be a good move, but I’m afraid now Azerbaijan wouldn’t agree with such a solution. However, everything depends on the outcome of the conflict. If Armenia gains the upper hand, Russia can pressure Azerbaijan and the turks for that solution. Otherwise, the turks would definitely establish a permanent garrison in the region in the name of peacekeeping but actually to reduce Russia’s influence in the region.
If you are not joking, you just astonished me because it is the first time in these few days that I read something that no one had dared to write: That the Russians already knew about the imminent attack of the Azeris backed by the Turks. If the news he gives is true, then there is no need to worry about a new massacre of Armenians, everything is under control.
As an Orthodox Serb, I can only brace myself and suggest the same for all of my kin, because if this is the opinion Kremlin will follow, we are about to face situation our ancestors hardly survived as a nation. We are surrounded by enemies, with all of them having powerful allies which already proved themselves ready not only to support them, but to attack us directly. The difference seems to be that, unlike on dawn of WW I, Russia will not risk anything to help us survive. Especially because our political establishment is hijacked from peoples’ will by the West and leads us from one treason against Serbian people and homeland into another.
Knowing what I know now, I must wonder, do our authorities in Serbia do this knowing that we can expect no help in our grave geopolitical situation? If they do, I hope they are aware of the fact that our enemies take a dead Serb as only good Serb, and will not change that stance whatever we do or say.
If this stance towards its allies proves to be the one Russia will act upon, they will hit a decisive blow to themselves.
Russia must not forget who and how delayed and slowed operation “Barbarossa” and what those crucial weeks meant in the great picture. It was not any government, it was the people of Serbian nation who made the sacrifice, against their own authorities and all odds of survival. For this we payed an ultimate price. And we still are paying it.
The key fact I am trying to send over is that governments need to be separated from people of the nation. It is the people that will take the lion share of all the suffering and fighting, not the leaders (who often flee once things get serious). Governments are changeable, people… much harder.
Dear Russian brothers, please consider the message you are sending to all your enemies, friends and brethren all over the world.
Take care,
Serb
“The key fact I am trying to send over is that governments need to be separated from people of the nation. It is the people that will take the lion share of all the suffering and fighting, not the leaders (who often flee once things get serious). Governments are changeable, people… much harder.
Dear Russian brothers, please consider the message you are sending to all your enemies, friends and brethren all over the world.”
Amen my Serbian Brother. The reason I converted to Orthodoxy (from Roman Catholicism) was my admiration for the Serbian (and Russian) people.
How about Serbs (I’m also Serb) do something to organize themselves to oppose the Vucic regime which has done more to destroy Serbia than most of its enemies?
Appealing to a foreign country for help, no matter how friendly, can’t be the solution. Our problems must be solved right here and using our strength, an outside party cannot save us if we don’t want to help ourselves.
No allies saved Serbia in WWI, it was the incredible willingness of the Serbian people to resist and pay the heaviest price possible to remain free that won. It was our brightest moment.
The West has done much to nurture a neocolonial mindset amongst the Serbs, that’s what we must work to undo.
Mairon, you should know that since 1918 until now we survived what most of others in our place would not. Considering all the pressure constantly mounting on Serbian people, the fact that we are still here and alive to put up a fight before we perish is something we should be proud of. More than a century of ideological, cultural, economical, moral and religious occupation, paused only for wars, genocide and genocide attempts by allied neighbors supported with collective West, soft occupation with systemic negative selection on all levels is something we live in and we can truly overthrow only if ready to start the civil and regional war stacked against us… We simply do not have enough people do demographically survive another war like we faced during WW2. Sure there is a percent of population that succumbed to these pressures, but you can rest assured that we will go out kicking 110%, once we are forced to make a choice of disappearing in shame or with honor. There is enough of us left for that, however silent we appear to be.
Serbian people do not hope for anyone’s help to fight our fight, but we could decide to go out and fight easier if we knew that we would not be alone to the bitter end. Fighting a fight you have hope winning is a lot different thing than fighting a fight to leave the face of the world and enter history with honor. Somewhere there is an answer to your and questions of many of us Serbs.
The situation regarding Russia’s vital interests is far more complex that this article allows, the Azeri-Armenian conflict falls within the context of a Turkish/neo-Osmanist expansionist project that the West has been supporting for decades, for its own Atlanticist reasons. The greater Turkestan/neo-Osmanist project is a major threat to Russia – yes, the threat has receded in recent years because of Turkey’s own disasters in foreign policy & the misdeeds of Erdogan, but it remains a threat nonetheless. Turkey’s regional aspirations are very deeply rooted with Turkish society & its ruling establishment, they will not disappear with Erdogan’s eventual departure. For Russia, this means that irrespective of Armenia’s conduct as a state & government towards Russia -which should never be confused with the attitudes & sentiments of a population (look at Russia under Yeltsin in the 1990’s), Russia essentially has to ensure that Armenia’s territorial interests are supported. And this does not mean that Russia go to wat for Armenia, there are a myriad of ways & means a powerful state like Russia can support Armenia without shedding blood or even spending large sums of money, it just takes some skilled strategic thinking & planning, & utilising resources to their maximum potential. In short, Russia must protect its southern flank, & Armenia – like it or not – comprises part of that defence. It is not for nothing that the West, in general terms, the Anglo-American & German establishments supported the genocide of Armenians & Greeks in what is now northern Turkey, the Black Sea rim has been cleared of its Christian populations to the south, & this is hugely to the detriment of Russia. Re-establishing Christianity in the Middle East, & eventually around the southern Black Sea rim, has to be a long term goal of Russia foreign policy. Turkish expansionism, & its Western support, will not go away & it is set on an eventual – in my view inevitable – armed confrontation with Russia.
Complex yes. But one aspect everybody is missing.
The effects on the little man, the ordinary person.
It’s been almost 7 years since maidan in Kiev.
7 years are people of Donbass living in war. And no end in sight.For the Syrians almost 10.
People’s lives are wasted forever.
All the Kremlin excuses they feed us hold no water.
ad hominem removed .. mod – the fate of the “little man” depends on large scale geopolitical developments, that is what is relevant here, not pseudo Marxian references to a non-existant proletariat.
And what do you think is the driver of those “large scale geopolitical developments”?????
Once again, I cannot find a fault in your reasoning Saker. You are totally right on this issue.
The trouble I think is that this is a clear example of our instinctive reaction clashing with logical thinking. I readily admit that even myself would like to see Russia dealing Azerbaijan a crushing defeat, prickling the wannabe sultan in the process.
But this is just teenager’s fantasy, because then so what ? Let’s imagine Russia destroys the Azeri military potential, what then ? Azerbaijan will take its stuff and go home, and Erdogan will dedicate himself to internal politics ? Most likely they will just double down, with the US happy to bankroll the revanche.
Politically I see no practical gain from an explicit Russian intervention. The only logical course of action for Russia is to limit herself to the terms of the CSTO and come to Armenia’s help if Armenian territory proper is attacked. For the rest, Armenia is on its own. If it wants extra, then it has to deal and to offer Russia something meaningful in return. Sick of these little countries thinking they can piss at will at the Russian bear and assume that Russia will come to their help in times of need. I’m talking to you Armenian liberals, intellectuals, startuppers – time to pack up the kalachnikov and go to the front, and don’t count too much on your Western heroes…
The greatest danger, it seems to me, is the establishment of a new jihadist hotbed in Nagorny Karabakh. See Idleb in Syria. Not easy to reduce. Imagine a new one in Stepanakert? For this reason a support to Armenia under the guise of plausible denial seems to me necessary for Russia.
We will see in the next few days if the Azeris make a breakthrough or not. The pace of operations seems to be very high. It seems that the Azeris are planning rapid gains. If the Armenians manage to hold out and inflict severe losses, the Azeris may agree to a ceasefire before they loose face. Russian diplomacy can be trusted not to spoil this eventuality should it arise.
The situation will remain rotten, and not only around Armenia, as long as Uncle Shmuel remains influential. Betting on his disappearance could be very risky if it lasts a long time. Big, big game on the scale of the whole planet. Very dangerous times. Where is the climax of the hybrid warfare that is taking place worldwide? Is it a rearguard war? Or does Uncle Schmuel still have the strategic initiative? In any case, he’s making a big mess at low cost.
As Saker said recently, the world has got absolutely insane.
As far as the international law is concerned, there is no difference between the case of Crimea and Nagorno Karabakh. Nagorno Karabakh became part of Armenia in the late 80-s, based on USSR constitution, but in 91 they conducted a referendum and declared independence based on the result.
There is also another headache. The Russian goal has been to take care of head choppers abroad so that they don’t do mischief inside Russia. Now that it has been confirmed the head choppers are fighting alongside the Azerbaijani troops, there is ample opportunity to take care of the situation. Azerbaijan is far closer to Daghestan or Chechnia than Syria or Libya are.
Thank you for mentioning Chechnia. Someone is thinking here! Do you people really think that Kadurov’s boys will sitting and watching this from the sidelines? These Erdogan’s headchoppers that he had re-located first from Syria to Lybia and now to Azerbaijan WILL NOT have much longevity in that part of Russian underbelly. Chechens do not take prisoners. These guys have been spetznaz trained and have been just waiting for that wahabiist garbage to show up there. Do you really think Russia didn’t see all the praparations, and was suddenly caught up, not being ready? That was the main reason they went to Syria – to destroy as much of that garbage as possible THERE, before it had a chance to spread closer to Russia’s borders. Another stupid move by wannabe Sultan!
And, once again, he will pay for it.
Curious on your thoughts for:
1) What are the chances of Kadurov entering Russian federal politics, or even becoming a minister in Putin’s government?
2) How likely are Chechen units to be reinforcing Armenian forces as “volunteers?”
To Dick Lenning
To answer your questions: Kadurov will be leading Chechnia for as long as he is alive.
As for the Chechen “volunteers”, these are already there, on the ground, operating, and have been doing that even before the start of the hostilities. They were prepared and were expecting such developments. As I have said before – Russian intelligence service is second to none. (For those reading here who are ignorant – Chechnia is PART of the Russian Federation).
And I will also repeat – another very stupid move by Erdogan that will cost him dearly. That man never learns.
There is also an argument which says that the current hot conflict is meant to produce a smokescreen by generating additional headaches for Russia in the southern Caucasus whilst the main objective is to inject hordes of captagon-addicted orks on Iran’s northern doorstep, thereby replicating the conditions observed in southern Turkey in 2011.
It’s probably part of the “slowly tightening the bolts” strategy.
One the main objectives of the Russian military operation in Syria was to prevent the spread of militants active in Syria. Erdogan is sending these militants in Libya and now in the Caucasus. This is exactly what russia did not want to happen for obvious security concerns. Partnership with turkey like selling them S400 etc was a mistake. Erdogan and Russia agree on nothing and erdogan is being more and more reckless. Sending militants from Syria to the Caucasus is a slap in the face for Russia. I Don t see how all of this could end well. Erdogan should stop the mess now while he still can.
Armenians in Georgia blocked Turkish convoys restocking up Azer..do they have much of an influence one wonders what the gossip and reality is …is Georgia tacitly or largely complicit in cahoots with Turkey re these events….nothing from Iran yet I have seen though it has borders there……
Russians should start paying attention at what Azeris are chanting during their portests. “Rus, Fars, Erməni Azərbaycan Düşməni”. Russians, Persians, Armenians, the enemies of Azerbaijan!
The nagorno Karabakh conflict is similar to Crimea or transistria or Kosovo conflict.
As USSR imploded, the unitary Soviet state came to an end. Minority populations ended up in newly independent republics and felt alienated or discriminated.
Karabakh may be recognised internationally as part of Azerbaijan but that doesn’t mean that Armenians are on the wrong side or that they don’t deserve to control & rule this area.
After all, the population of Karabakh is Armenian. There is no way that Armenians will accept Azerbaijani rule. There is so much hatred and racism on both sides. Armenians will be forced to exile or ethnically cleansed ( if Azerbaijan gain control of Karabakh)
Borders were determined during Soviet era.
Many areas with ethnic populations were given to Soviet republics with different majority nationality (north Kazakhstan was majority russian, Eastern Ukraine majority Russian), the only solution is the independence of Karabakh
Soviet Union doesn’t exist any more & there are many border conflicts in the post Soviet space.
Transistria (in Moldova), crimea & Donbass (Ukraine), Abkhazia & Ossetia (Georgia)
xcvv
I would like to explain something about those borders that you have mentioned. In days of Imperial Russia these borders did nor exist, it was just “Gubernias” i.e. Governance, with Governors. It was Bolsheviks that have split these areas along some vaguely nationalistic lines with very arbitrory borders. What was the idea behind that, no-one knows, but ever since the collapse of USSR that has become the constant source of tensions and conflicts. Although one can perhaps guess the reason, I believe the good old-fashioned “divide and rule” doctrine has been applied here. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, those republics were left drifting all by themselves and pretty quickly got “taken care” of by western interests and of course, with introduction of necessary Russophobia that had to be displayed. This is the result. But as Saker very astutely has pointed out, Russia did not “lose” these, it is they that lost Russia. And all paying the price now.
it is all about belarus
It is a (Russian) bear trap. First Syria, then Libya, possibly Belarus and now Nagorno Karakbakh. Russian is being lured into several quagmires that are no good for her future as a Federation.
I have always admired the intelligence of Russia. But intelligence must always be wedded to wisdom or a high price will have to be paid for slighting Madam Wisdom. Hell has no fury like Wisdom scorned.
Russia must find ways to pacify all those conflicts. Focus on the bigger picture – the future of Russia. And get out of those quagmires while still can.
According to international law, Karabakh is Azerbaijani land but we have many cases of violation of this international law
1) Crimea was part of Ukraine & was united with Russia (or occupied by Russia according to international law & Ukraine)
* Crimean people supported the integration to Russia as they are mostly ethnically russian
2) Russia intervened in 2008 and established “independent” states in Abkhazia & Ossetia, provinces of Georgia.
* Georgia and international law does not recognise these states. But Abkhazian and Ossetian people do not want to be part of Georgia.
3) Kosovo, a majority Albanian province of Serbia was declared independent and recognized by the actions of NATO / western powers (an action against international law). Serbia does not recognise as well as Russia and many more countries.
* Kosovars do not want to be part of Serbia & Serbian population of Kosovo do not want to be under Albanian rule
4) Turkey invaded Cyprus and created a new state in Northern Cyprus for the Turkish Cypriot minority (recognized only by Turkey).
Turkey blockades & condemns Armenia for Karabakh “occupation” but what about the Turkish occupation of Cyprus ?
Also Turkey illegally invaded northern Syria, and is trying to organise there areas to be integrated with Turkey ..
————
So there are many double standards and international law does not mean much.
It’s all about power politics & interests
Which international law exactly applies to Ukraine or Georgia to the extend of Serbia and Kosovo? Everyone repeats that mantra, but no-one could build a proper argument or explanation because such argument does not exist. There’s no way you can defend such claims in front of an unbiased international tribunal that actually cares about law and not about ideologies, gossip, politics, and random opinions.
It’s hard to compare the case of Russia getting involved in the countries that fall under the Common Wealth of Russia with the US essentially taking over territory from a far-away foreign sovereign state and redistributing it — the case with Kosovo.
What borders of Ukraine are recognized under what international law? Only the western borders.
In reality, the reunion of Crimea to Russia is legally sound. At the moment Abkhazia and Ossetia were recognized as independent by Russia, they legally became independent. The rest is politics, where the problem lies. The legal side is actually in much better shape. When Russia recognizes the independence of the eastern separatist republics in Ukraine, then they will de jure become independent. Other countries’ recognitions are not legally relevant but they do have a political value.
Azerbaijan does not have international law on its side, and Azerbaijan and Tirkey will lose the conflict with the Armenians.
Azerbaijan SSR was a multicultural society, with 75 percent of Nagorno-Karabagh ethnically Armenian, and 25 percent Azeri. Azerbaijan’s stated goal is not to abolish the Artsakh Republic and replace it with rule from Baku.
This conflict is not political, Baku’s goal is to ethically cleanse Armenian from Nagorno-Karabagh.
is not a proper goal under international law. The ethnic Armenian majority of Artsakh aka Nagorno Karabagh have a right to self-determination under international law. The UN charter states that people, based on respect for the principle of equal rights and fair equality of opportunity, have the right to freely choose their sovereignty and international political status with no interference. Artsakh, aka Nagorno-Karabagh is no different than Bangladesh, South Sudan, Palestine or any other entity where a people or nation do not want to be governed by a foreign or alien power.
Azerbaijan SSR was originally a deeply multi-ethnic society, and now the Aliyevs want to re-invent the country as a place without Armenians. Azerbaijan has literally banned Armenians from the non Artsakh portion of the country. No one of Armenian heritage can enter Azerbaijan. In contrast, Milosovic’s Serbia never banned Albanians or Kosovar Albanians from coming and going in to Serbia. Azerbaijan’s policy of excluding all Armenians of former Azerbaijani citizenship from Azerbaijan is akin to Nazi Germany stripping Jews of citizenship.
How can the Aliyev regime claim that it is the legitimate government of Artsakh when Baku has de facto stripped people in Artsakh of Azerbaijani citizenship? Moreover, the present revanchists attack by Baku has no plans on how Baku will deal with the 100,000 Armenians of Artsakh/Azerbaijani/for USSR citizenship who are now in Artsakh. The answer is simple: Baku wants to terrorize the Armenian civilian population into leaving Artsakh. This is illegal under international law.
Consent of the governed: The Aliyev regime is an unelected, hereditary kleptocracy. In contrast, Artsakh is a functional democracy with full freedom of religion, and every liberty available to its population. There are a large number of Yezidi Kurds who are not Christian and who thrive in Artsakh. No one in Artsakh would want Baku to govern them.
Lastly, Russia will support Armenia against Turkey because she must. Georgia is joining NATO, and Russia will lose control of the Caucasus unless she shores up support for old allies like the Armenians.
When Russia experimented with detente with Turkey via the sale of the S-400s, Armenia had no choice but to look to the West, India, China and even Mars for support against its Genocidal adversary, unrepentant Erdogan’s Turkey.
This Saker analysis is too colored by the resentment towards the Occident-loving new government, a temporary and ephemeral phenomenon.
Only viable solutions are the following
1) independence of Karabakh (with limited or no international recognition)
2) union with Armenia (with limited or no international recognition)
3) or continuation of the status quo (Armenian control of Karabakh with no international recognition)
There is no way that the Armenian population of Karabakh will live and prosper under Azeri rule.
Ethic cleansing & forced exile is their future under Azeri rule. That’s the official policy of Azeri government.
There is so much racist hatred and propaganda by the Azeri regime that the Armenian population will be in grave danger
What Turks did to Greek Cypriots in 1974 with the invasion of Cyprus is a possible outcome if Azerbaijan wins the conflict….
Or what Turks did to the Greeks of Istanbul when they forced them to exile in 1955 with various pogroms
100,000 Armenians will end up as refugees in Armenia if Karabakh will be controlled by Azerbaijan
I agree. Mass rapes, lootings and killings will take place, as basically in every instance of “kaffir” territory being overrun by Moslems.
According to flightradar24 there was one Russian an-124 transport to Yerevan at the beginning of the “conflict” with, what later turned out to be, Tor AD’s.
While Pashinyan is Armenia’s pro-western Random Guy, the military seems to be Russian-aligned, if not only because of their role in weapons supply. Pashinyan may learn the hard way about the fickle nature of US support, which is little more than “let’s you and him fight”. Turkey also has issues – the large number of ISIS head-choppers who found life opposing Russia in Syria not exactly ideal. Erdogan has managed to dispose of some in Libya, and seems to be trying the same in support of the Azerbaijan regime. The removal of the ISIS goons en masse will be a good thing, but civilian losses would not form not a price worth paying.
The tensions against the Iranian border also seem to be part of a plan to force Iran to divide its military assets, weakening defense in the south, in preparation for a US or Israeli attack. The buying off of the corrupt leaderships of ME countries as part of the Israel-Arab ‘peace’ plan also tie in. Israel is preparing for an attack against Iran and the Adelson/Saban oligarchs are encouraging the US politicos to outdo each other in terms of support. Once Iran has been attacked and weakened, then the US economy will be pulled and the shell can blow away as dust (Mielekowski’s Grand Plan).
Thanks for this write-up Saker, I was looking out for it.
I understand that Russia is fed up with games Armenia is playing. I do believe Russia has interests in both Armenia and Azerbaijan, and must therefore tread carefully in this conflict.
I disagree with you that the region has no strategic interest for Russia. Russia and Iran were supposed to coordinate and combine their power grids via Azerbaijan and/ or Armenia.
This was announced early September 2020:
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Iran-To-Link-Its-Power-Grid-To-Russia-Azerbaijan.html
Next thing we know, a war breaks out in exactly the region where this grid harmonisation is supposed to take place. ..
Not only that, but the main instigator of this war is Turkey who is also massively financed by Gulf, EU and Israeli banks.
(I have to say I don’t understand the EU banks. Turkey owes them more than USD 100 billion. This poses a real systemic risk to their banking system and the Euro itself and yet they continue to funnel money to Erdogan: https://wolfstreet.com/2020/08/15/as-turkeys-2nd-financial-currency-crisis-in-2-years-blossoms-heavily-invested-european-banks-look-for-exit-but-not-the-most-exposed-bank/)
Both Iran and Russia must work together to diffuse the situation in the Caucuses and continue with their energy cooperation and harmonisation of their power grids. This will make it harder for the US (and others) to launch cyber attacks on their grids.
So international bankers are financing Erdogan and his quest for an Ottoman Empire? Perhaps bankers want to push Erdogan into a war with his neighbors (regional/global war) and trigger a systemic reset (The Great Reset)?!
The bank that has the greatest exposure to Turkish debt is BBVA which is not a GSIB- Globally Systemic Important Bank.. .The others exposed to Turkish debt are GSIBS, but they are trying to reduce their exposure. If a systemic crisis arises it seems to me it would be an unwanted consequences not a desired outcome for these bankers…
A systemic reset is a desired outcome, a systemic reset is needed to get rid of all the debt in the world and an opportunity to reach globalist goals, have a look at “The Great Reset” promotional youtube video by the World Economic Forum, they see any crisis as an opportunity, it is called disaster capitalism (see also Naomi Klein’s youtube documentary about disaster capitalism: “The Shock Doctrine”).
Why do you think bankers financed Hitler? They knew very well what that would lead to; a desired systemic reset, global finance, and putting a stop to communism.
A regional/global war provoked by Erdogan and his sponsors would trigger a systemic reset.
The Saker is correct to say that Russia has no interest in the N-G situation. It has supported a peaceful resolution consistently. It does however have an interest in the presense of ISIS close to its southern borders. Preventing that was the primary reason for its action in Syria – supported by Assad’s steadfast position and Syria’s historical position as an ally. The dumping of ISIS into this area may provide a similar reason for Russian intervention, especially as the ISIS stooges are likely to be re-direct against Iran by Israel assets in their company.
It would be an interesting move if the Iranian government, a Russian ally (of a sort), were to ask for the presense of Russian advisors to assist with ISIS eradication. It could complicate any USIS plans against Iran (which would be A Good Thing in itself).
It is probably not a coincidence that Shoigu has recently announced that the Russians eliminated 133,000 ISIS goons in Syria.
Only if the president of Azerbaijan invites Russia to interfere in their country, which never will happen.
Your analysis is quite bitter and sad.
While I concede that Armenia has been arrogant towards Russia specially in the last years, if Russia hasn’t got any obligations regarding Armenia’s borders they better pack up and leave the bases in Armenian soil for good. But if Russia has some pretensions of being a regional leader, they should be up to the task or be content with just being a diminished regional player.
If the war goes on, Russia will have to choose sides or leave the scenario.
That is what NATO wants for Russia to go to war with Turkey, which is not going to happen.
Forget those games NATO – Russia. This has nothing to do with that.
This is different game altogether.
Turkey is a Nato country and it is Turkey that is stirring the pot.
The blanket assertion that Azerbaijan has international law on its side is at best disputable. In December 1991 the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Republic approved independence by referendum by over almost 100 percent of those voting (Azeris boycotted the vote). Thus, while once part of the AzSSR it was arguably never legally part of independent Azerbaijan. Baku didn’t recognize the referendum but under the 1990 USSR law on secession then in force, they had no say in the matter. They’re arguing against the same law by which the AzSSR itself left the USSR. If they claim it’s not valid, neither is Azerbaijan’s secession. Hair-splitting? Sure. That’s what claims of legality are made of.
I have to respectfully disagree with the idea that Russia is not concerned by what is going on in the South Caucasus right now. Here’s my perspective of what’s at stake for Russia :
This dangerous situation is unfolding right on Russia’s doorstep. Russia shares a land border with Azerbaijan, where Turkey’s “mad sultan” Erdogan sent hundreds of wahabbi mercenary terrorists from Syria (the same maniacs whose goals at least partially played a role in Russia’s decision to intervene in Syria, to prevent them from turning back to destabilise Russia’s southern muslim regions again) to Azerbaijan. An easy victory in Armenia, so near to Russia’s borders, could encourage them to turn their eyes to the North Caucasus next.
Apart from that potential nightmare, there is the fact that Armenia is still, whether some like it or not, a member Russia’s political and economic alliance. Yes, this is not a military alliance we are talking about here, but Armenia is still, on paper at least, part of Russia’s sphere of influence. Armenia is also one of the few nations that hosts a foreign russian military base. Around 3000 russian servicemen are located there, if I’m correct. Turkey, a regional rival of Russia, is now openly threatening to attack Armenia. My question is : What do you think would happen to Russian international credibility, if a member state of Russia’s political-economic sphere were to be crushed militarily, with the real danger of the people of that country suffering a (new) genocide, right under the nose of the russian servicemen hosted there ?
Is the russian base in Armennia so worthless that it’s ok for Russia to lose it ? Because that seems at stake here. I was under the impression that the russian military base in Armenia had a purpose…
From what I understan here, it seems that many people here hold a grudge against all of Armenia, because the armenian political leadership said some mean things about Russia for the last… 2 years. This is a result of illegal US meddling inside that country, like it’s the case in so many places acroos our world. Do you mean to tell me that all the US crumbling empire needs to do is create political instability within the borders of one of Russia’s allies, in order to make Russia turn tail and abandon her position there ? That does not sound serious to me.
Last but not least, you are mistaken to say that international law is on the side of Azerbaijan here. International law clearly states the right of self determination of the peoples of the world. This is the only way Russia can have any kind of legal defense in the cases of Crimea, Donbass, Abkhazia and South Ossetia. This also applies to Nagorno-Karabakh. Are you really saying that Russia’s sole legal argument for its actions defending its geostrategic interests close to home, is now null and void ? I would advise against it.
We all know many of the internal borders in the USSR only made sense from an administrative point of view. They should have never been the basis for the border division of sovereign nation states. These borders create instability and ethnic tensions. Let’s not pretend otherwise.
They say at Colonel Cassad that S-300 started working.
Qoute:
Сообщается, что в районе Еревана ведут огонь комплексы ПВО С-300.
По заявлению Пашиняна, в районе Котайка и Гегаркюника силами узла ПВО Еревана сбиты 3 из 4 дронов вторгшихся в воздушное пространство Армении.
Отмечается, что это первое боевое применение С-300 в условиях полномасштабной войны, хотя высказываются предложения, что отрабатывали другие средства ПВО.
( Свернуть )
End Quote
10 Oct 23:17, I assume Moscow time.
Translation.Mod:
It is reported that S-300 air defence systems are firing in the area of Yerevan.
According to Pashinyan, in the area of Kotayk and Gegharkunik, the forces of the Yerevan air defence hub shot down 3 out of 4 drones that invaded Armenian airspace.
It is noted that this is the first combat use of the S-300 in a full-scale war, although there are suggestions that other air defence systems were practised.
( Roll up )
Well I think it’s safe to assume that this is just one amongst many inflammatory situations highlighted in the mossad run CIA playbook to try to provoke some kind of retaliation from Russia. I think the Russians have made huge mistakes by allowing the Belarussian situation to develop. They should have pre empted that one and been on top of it. I also think they handled the Nalalny affair abysmally and should not have allowed him to leave the country.The Brits wrote the unsubstantiated novichok script hgighlighting just how stupid the Russians surely are because who would have thought it would ever lead back to Russia…? But I digress, one wonders how many oither ex soviet statelets have been primed with Soros NGO’s to cause more damage to Ivan and why the Russians haven’t stamped this out proactively in order to save themselves a headache further down the line.
In the words the of Boney M song, Rasputin, “Oh, those Russians”
My sincere hope is that VVP has a better insight into all this as I truly believe Russia (although not China) can be the saviour of the people (not the zio leaders) of the west.
Footnote – I say not China because I really don’t like the look of the way they control their country with their social point scoring system which allows/denies feedom of movement – just like the fake covid rules in the west.
That s what I say.
Until the very day where China and russia obtain the rental, of a new full fledged naval base in the mouth of the Persian Gulf for 30 years, or in the Venezuelan shores for the same time span , the empire will not understand the real size of the menace they must face.
Then the MIIMC (military industrial intelligence & media complex) will get a 1,5 trillion defense budget which can be the end. The end of empire or of human race.
Is that why they do nt?
I wish to add my voice to those who see wisdom in Saker’s analysis. Russia and China (and others, including Iran and the wider axis of resistance) have, for some time now, been demonstrating a new and different way for nations to engage with each other. By their actions, and not just by their words, they advocate: adherence to international law via the forum of the UN; respect for the equal sovereignty of all nations; and cooperation (economic, political, social and cultural) where this is mutually beneficial. In other words, an end to hegemonic states and an end to client states. This places a responsibility on all nations, large and small, to decide for themselves what it is they stand for, what they want for their future and how they will get along with other nations in seeking to achieve that future. Russia has demonstrated time and again that it will stand by those who take responsibility for standing for themselves and who wish to engage sincerely and cooperatively with Russia. This is the multi-polar future. In this future, nations that have no soul will be lost.
I hope you are correct. I pray that you are correct. May God Almighty bless Russia with the necessary wisdom and leaders with such wisdom to navigate Russia in the new multi-polar world which has its own (and new) political mine-fields.
The future I want for Russia is a healthy, peaceful, spiritually prosperous and materially prosperous (not too prosperous because of environmental issues that come with over prosperity). A nation of at least 200 million heterosexual people under God Almighty Jesus Christ of the Bible.
The future you want sounds good to me. I hope that it comes to pass and that you, your children and your grand-children can enjoy it together. Best wishes.
Simon
“Russia has demonstrated time and time again that it will stand by those who take responsibility for standing for themselves and who wish to engage sincerely and cooperatively with Russia. This is the multi-polar future. In this future, nations that have no soul will be lost”.
Are you hearing this, bitter serbs and others? Do not expect anything from Russia if you are not prepared to stand up for yourselves. End of story.
Simon, I couldn’t have said better myself, with this your post! Thank you!
“Are you hearing this, bitter serbs and others? Do not expect anything from Russia if you are not prepared to stand up for yourselves. End of story.”
In 1999. Serbia stood up against 19 NATO countries ALL ALONE, (Removed ,insulting,MOD) The only one bitter is you.
@ Anon
Yes, I agree. You are right on both points.
Unfortunately, at times we come across a Serb defamer or two. But when we do, let us keep in mind what the great George Bernard Shaw once said:
“I learned long ago, never to wrestle with a pig. You get dirty, and besides, the pig likes it.”
.
https://volyn.com.ua/content/thumbs/750×500/t/vv/l3w2hk-u4baprdvvqu4k7xj3hufmsetpb7lnvvt.jpg
.
The Serbs stood for themselves, remember? And they were left standing on their own after enduring 3 months of bombardment by Nato satan. No help from anywhere (not even Rusia). And don’t tell me Rusia couldn’t. It could raise it’s voice liitle louder than it did.
Most people in this kind of sites think that Armenia should either do business with Russia or USA/EU. It can’t be both. It is either East or West. Putin himself wisely has said that whether it’s Armenia or Belarus or Ukraine, these countries should be given freedom to do business with whoever they want. Ironically when people in these anti western websites say Armenia or other countries should only be friendly to Russia they are showing they have the same dualistic bipolar mentality that they are accusing their opponents of.
And regarding this current clash, people assume that Armenia is scared and wants peace and is about to pee in her pants. From many people that I talked to last several days whether in the Karabakh war zone front lines or the civilians in Yerevan or Los Angeles, NO ONE wants this war to end anytime soon. There were 5,000 private cars of volunteers heading to Karabakh from Armenia in 1 day. That is about 15,000 angry Armenian males who already had military training and many of them already have fighting experience. And there are 2,000 of Greek and Cypriot Armenian males heading to Armenia. Many from USA and tens of thousands of them from Russia. One of our 21 year old relatives from Moscow went there 2 days ago to join the Armenian army and the army didn’t accept him because he doesn’t speak Armenian. We are Armenians and we have been thanking God every day for giving us this golden opportunity to slaughter our enemies once and for all.
In short, these armchair analysts have got things backwards.
Reading many of the comments here is surreal. Completely blind to their own black or white thinking. Reminds me of this famous quote:
Do we really care about the sovereignty of nations, or do we demand obedience to our tribe?
God be with the Armenians
Your argument is wrong for many reasons. Azerbaijan has expanded its military and armed it with modern weaponry from turkey and israel. It also has a numerical advantage. That is adding to the turkish military support and the thousands of Islamic fighters that turkey is pouring into the region.
Armenia can’t act as if they can do it alone. I saw in some reports that Russia is supporting the Armenian military with intelligence and weapons supplies. They’re doing it obviously for their own security concerns.
The US-EU block has turned the whole world into an unofficial battleground with its regime-change campaigns and warmongering.
A country like Armenia can’t stand on its own in this context and it has to align with the side that would do the least harm to its national interests.
I hate to say it, but this forum is becoming — not by courtesy of the authors whose submissions are excellent in most cases — an anti-Russian/anti-Putin cackling site thanks to the commentariat. People who have ”grown tired of”, ”seen through”, or ”lost faith in” Putin and Russia displaying an irrepressible need of slandering and mocking Russia, hence producing a cacophony of inanities. What they forget is that Western ”successes” are vulgar braggadocio magnified to the N:th degree by Western media pundits. As they get used to this agit-prop, they end up firmly addicted to it refusing to believe or even listen to any other narratives. Russia is continuously gathering strength by industrialization, innovation, and re-armament. The West is descending into utter chaos, total corruption, and violence. But, hey, the imbecilic Russians let Navalny escape to Germany to stir up trouble with NS-2. Whether that means the end of NS-2 remains to be seen, but it certainly doesn’t signify the end of Russia and her prosperous times under Putin. It’s Russia’s alliance with China and the BRI project which is really crucial, considering the magnitude and the scope pertaining to it. Of course the dying West is hell-bent on sabotaging it, but I don’t think the arrogant pessimists here will be of much help.
To put this in historical perspective, it should be pointed out that the West — its reactionaries and ’progressives’ alike — has always committed itself to spreading doom and gloom about Russia. As the USSR under Stalin began industrializing in the late 1920s, this was ”rewarded” by Western prejudice as utterly hopeless, stillborn, despotic, and what-have-you. Every little setback, fake or real, was accompanied by excessive gloating. Stalin then, like Putin now, was ”incompetent” as well as a ”traitor”. Well. Stalin and Russia prevailed over European fascism and US nuclear blackmail. This is what Stalin’s and Putin’s popularity in Russia is about, arrogant Western media consumers be damned.
To Nussiminen
Dear friend, I have come to realise a while ago that some people coming to this site have nothing to offer except those very attitudes that I have mentioned in my first essay. They believe that they are showing some knowledge and therefore, an opinion, but what they do not realise is that they fail to separate what they want to say from their ATTITUDES! That comes through again and again. No matter how much one tries to point that out, the minds are firmly closed. The attutudes that have been shaped will not be examined and when necessary, jettisoned, no no, absolutely not – these will be hanged on to for dear life and as far as they are concerned, nothing will change that! Really sad..
Dear Katerina,
That observation of yours is a most perceptive one. I can’t help my own mocking of this behavior by calling it attitudes-by-platitudes. It doesn’t contribute anything of substance; it only serves the purpose of boosting their tiny egos at Russia’s (imagined) expense. As I wrote in my first comment in this thread:
Well, surely, anyone is welcome to enjoy this toxic, testosterone-boosting mix of chauvinism, militarism, religious bigotry and violence-worship. If this improves anyone’s biochemistry, that’s fine.
But, I strongly object to pretending it to be some kind of “standing for freedom” or “defending international law”. Enough of that, the lie deserves to be demasked for the benefit of humanity.
What do freedom-loving people of the world have to do with Russia then ? If Russia does not aim to be “city on the hill”, if it does stand for its carbohydrate exports rather than freedom (as used to be proclaimed by Putin enthusiasts six years ago), then Russia is of no use and will not be really missed.
Yes, Turkey alignment to Russia has much to offer in terms of gas pipelines and breaking the NATO’s cohesion. Little Armenia has only its millennia old culture to preserve.
Well, our sympathies are of no use to Kremlin guys anymore.
Dear Saker, I agree with your analysis in general. However I would say that Ankara has become far too much of a threat for Moscow to ignore at this point. The Turks are as you say involved in a political crisis with almost all their neighbours. They are using “Syrian” Jihadists as their mercenaries in two other conflicts outside of Syria and clearly like you mentioned, Erdogan is a loose cannon ready to explode. One of the reasons given by Moscow for fighting in Syria was to prevent jihadists to return to the Caucasus and commit acts of terrorism in Russia. If those Jihadists gain a foothold in the southern Caucasus, that would spell trouble for both Moscow and Tehran.
The view in Iran is that the Jewish State in the Levant is involved in this conflict in many ways. This was also mentioned by the President of the self-proclaimed Karabakh Republic, Araik Harutyunyan.
https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/this-war-against-our-republic-is-also-a-war-against-iran-karabakh-president/
Azerbaijan has very close ties to the Zionist state. The Zionists have access to Azeri airbases for example. Already the Iranian military has been forced to shoot down several drones entering from Azerbaijan and violating Iranian airspace. The fake news reports on Iran “transferring Russian arms to Armenia” are also attempts at disrupting Azeri-Iranian relations.
There are more Azeris in Iran than in Azerbaijan itself. They make up about 18% of Iran’s population, and attempts have been made before to “reunite” the country of Azerbaijan and “south Azerbaijan” – the Azeri populated region of northwestern Iran, the for example Soviets did it after WWII when they created the secessionist state of Azerbaijan People’s Government.
As a Shia majority state, Iran is expected to support Azerbaijan, however the Azeris under the Aliyev regime have been staunchly pro-Israel and have worked directly against the Islamic Republic’s interests. Iran also has close ties to Armenia for historical reasons. As many already know, Iran and Armenia share thousands of years of historical and cultural relations. There are many Armenians living in Iran, so Iran has a duty to keep close ties with Armenia as well.
This conflict can escalate into a scenario where both Iran’s and Russia’s borders are threatened by Jihadists and Zionist activity.
What Russia should do while Erdo is occupied in Azerbaijan is launch an adventure of their own in Idlib. They need to take out as much of the head choppas in Syria as they can.
“holding an anti-Russian political course while demanding the support of Russia”
Saker, you seem to be losing from sight entirely that it is the Armenian people that are now in dire need and deserving of full Russian support – the Christian Orthodox Armenian people in Nagorno-Karabakh – regardless of any muddled & opportunistic policies of the momentary regime in Yerevan (not the only regime whose policies deserve exactly these attributes).
With the poignant memory that the Christian Orthodox Armenians suffered the biggest documented genocide of XX century at the hands of Muslim Turks and their other Muslim allies, the current events do ring a mighty loud alarm bell.
To claim that “the Azeris have international law on their side” is completely arbitrary, to put it mildly.
Believe it or not, Armenians are not “putatively” Orthodox.
Question to author : “Russia has no interests in Armenia?” Really? À little bit of amnesia of your part…
You have forgotten the enormous russian military base in Gumri City, Armenia. The only one that stays in this region of Caucase, 2 others were expelled from Georgia and Azerbaïdjan.
To Doc
Removed – everyone is allowed to express a view whether right or wrong as long as it adheres to the site rules. Mod.
“The enormous” Russian military base in Armenia is the last one in the region? Really?? Well, for a start is not an “enormous” one, just a base, as for the other two that you have mentioned (and here your word “expelled” shows that “we are Russophobic” much?), well, the one from Georgia was re-located Just a Few km along the coast to Abkhazia and the one from Azerbaijan very likely got moved Just a Few km across the border to be on Russian soil. So, NO great strategic loss to Russia here whatsoever, as things stand. Please, in future Get your Facts right. Thank you.
Doc., simply don’t pay attention to the uninformed. You are of course right: the Russian military base in Gyumri, Armenia, is truly large by any measure!
It is officially called “The Order of Alexander Nevsky 102nd Russian Military Base of the Group of Russian Forces in Transcaucasia” (102-я ордена Александра Невского военная база Группы российских войск в Закавказье), located 126 km north of Yerevan, and is manned by over 4000 Russian servicemen!
The current agreement between Russia and Armenia is in effect until year 2044. As Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov explained, under the purview of the base’s military is to consider any external threat to Armenia as an external threat to Russia! ( https://www.vesti.ru/article/2036475 )
Many more details can be found through Яандекс web search about this base – as well as about the quite unfortunate loss of the two Russian bases in Georgia and Azerbaïdjan, which you correctly mentioned.
No mention of israel in this “analysis”. Both armenia azerbaijan are heavily influenced by zionazi connections. I think what is going on here is very obvious. The zpc/nwo is using their influence in both countries to generate a conflict between them for several purposes. First so they can introduce their terrorist mercs into that region and use it as a stepping stone to further attack Russia later from the south, as the sods use afghanistan to infiltrate their terror mercs into Western China.
Second, the destabilization creates the same sort of security and international relations headaches for Russia the zpc/nwo has been creating in any Russia bordering state the buggers have been able to gain control of.
Third, it is another attempt to drive a wedge between Russia and turkey. Much like zionazi geostrategy in Syria.
Dear vot tak – good to see you.
Another angle is also Iran – whose country borders both Armenia & Azerbaijan. Israel is selling weapons/drones to Azerbaijan too – they would be ecstatic to cause problems for Iran – which also has a large Azeri population. Iran has good relations with Armenia too – so the plan is to stoke unrest in Iran via their Azeri population.
It is an attack on both Russia and Iran (plus ruin ties with Turkey).
Cheers, and thanks. Agree with your analysis of the anti-Iranian vector.
The Armenian people of Nagorno-Karabakh have every right to self-defence and self-determination, to live in peace in an independent and sovereign homeland. This is a matter of human rights and of national survival
If Azerbaijan takes control of Karabakh, then there will an ethnic cleansing and mass exodus of Armenian population. Armenians of Karabakh have no future in dictatorial and islamic Azerbaijan, a country that discriminates against Armenian people.
This is a defensive war for national liberation and independence for Armenian people in their historic homeland.
As for the “legality” of Nagorno-Karabakh independence, this is a long discussion.
How legal was Azerbaijani independence? How legal was USSR dissolution?
And there is the issue of how and by whom the borders were drafted in Soviet times…
Provinces and territories with significant minority populations were included or excluded in various republics with arbitrary decisions (such as the transfer of Crimea to Soviet Ukraine, northern Kazakhstan inclusion to Kazakhstan, Ossetia and Abkhazia inclusion to Georgia, Russian speaking Eastern Ukraine inclusion to Soviet Ukraine etc)
So, Nagorno-Karabakh has every right to be an independent homeland for the local Armenian population
https://pronedra.ru/komu-prinadlezhit-nagornyj-karabax-i-chim-on-byl-iznachalno-511242.html
Who owns Nagorno-Karabakh and whose was it originally?
https://www.pravda.ru/world/1326353-karabah/Nagorno-Karabakh
Russia – Iran – Turkey – USA – France ! Solutions??!!
It is quite clear that any formal recognition of NKR-Artsakh will lead to a radical change in the structure of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and, consequently, to the breakdown of the existing international mechanism for its settlement. If the NKR receives state status, it will turn into a side of conflict.
First, it should be explained that the “Republic of Artsakh” is the unofficial name of the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic (NKR), an unrecognized international entity in the former Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Region (NKAO), which was part of Azerbaijan during the Soviet era. Many historians and analysts are of the opinion that it was with the conflict around the NCAO-NKR that the process of the collapse of the Soviet Union began. This needs to be understood in order to properly consider the destructive potential that lies within this problem.
The second key point is the fact that the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, which declared its independence in September 1991, managed not only to survive and actually take place as a state, but also to achieve outstanding military successes in the armed conflict with Azerbaijan. The Armenians of Karabakh (or Artsakh, as they call this region in Armenia) were able to establish full control over the territory of their former autonomy, and moreover – to seize seven districts of the Azerbaijani territory around it.
The seizure of these areas has allowed the formation of a security belt, as well as direct ground communication with the territory of Armenia.
The third factor to be taken into account is that the NCR is not recognized either as a State or as a party to the conflict. Officially, the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict exists between Armenia and Azerbaijan. There is no NCR or the Republic of Artsakh here. Including for Armenia: Yerevan itself still (for more than 25 years) does not recognize nkr.
Finally, for the purposes of our analysis, we should mention the existing international format for resolving the conflict. Within the FRAMEWORK of the OSCE, the so-called Minsk Group was established, co-chairing which is engaged in practical work. This is Russia, the United States and France.
So what can Mr. Nalbandian’s words mean against this background?
It is immediately puzzling that if Armenia really wants to achieve international recognition of the NKR, why won’t it start the process with itself? Why does Yerevan refrain from recognizing Artsakh, expecting that some “one state” will take this step?
It is fair to say that just under a year ago, the Armenian government and parliament took some actions that could be regarded as the beginning of the procedure of recognition of the People’s Republic of NKR.
Nothing decisive has been done, however; At the same time, there was a warning that recognition would follow if Azerbaijan unleashes aggression against Artsakh.
Anyway, the fact remains that the NKR has no official recognition even from its closest and natural ally, Armenia.
Who, which state in the world in such a situation will agree to declare recognition? And on what terms?
In the experience of international recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, which until recently had a status similar to that of the unrecognized NKR, it can be assumed that it is most likely some small island nation.
What will change if such recognition is made?
It seems that almost nothing is for the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic itself, which has actually taken place without it. NCR has indeed proven its vitality, its ability to provide its own security. The economy functions here, the social sphere works, and there is a regular political process. Of course, it is difficult to assume that all this would have been possible without constant support from Armenia. And yet, Artsakh , recognized or unrecognized – is a political, military, socio-economic reality, which is unlikely to change in one direction or another, if somewhere on a distant island it is officially recognized by the state.
If the NKR receives state status, it will turn into a side of conflict. How will Armenia behave then? Also will remain a participant and (which would be logical) will create some kind of military-political bloc with NKR, opposing Azerbaijan? Or will he try to distance himself from the situation by washing his hands and shifting responsibility for the future to the authorities of the now recognized Artsakh? But Baku has already firmly stated that in this case Azerbaijan will stop considering Armenia as a side of the conflict.
In these circumstances, it is equally clear that the Minsk Group (MG) and its co-chairs will be effectively erased, and a new settlement mechanism will be required. There are no words, I’m no way to brag: in 25 years it has not made any progress towards peace. But the ceasefire, the absence or at least the suppression of large-scale hostilities, it poorly provides. If it is not there, no one will be able to vouch for the fact that the war will not blaze again. Given the possibility of creating a unified Armenian-Karabakh bloc at a time when Armenia is a member of the CSTO and a Russian military base is stationed on its territory, a new war in Karabakh could pose a great danger to Russia. Do we need it?
Another fundamental question arises: in what borders does a certain state recognize NKR-Artsakh? In the borders of the Soviet NCAO or together with the captured areas of Azerbaijan? But in any case, it is clear how they will react to this in Azerbaijan: Baku will be forced to respond very sharply and harshly.
All of this is enough to make it clear that the recognition of NKR-Artsakh will create a completely new situation in the conflict and in the region as a whole. It’s like a new card change at the playing table. It doesn’t just happen out of nowhere. So there are forces interested in such a radical change in the format of the whole problem.
It is hardly to be assumed that we can talk about the biggest players: Russia and the United States. For Moscow, a new explosion in Karabakh is not needed at all: there are already enough worries. Washington, too, is not directly interested in large-scale destabilization in the Caucasus. Although, of course, it cannot be ruled out that someone may try to involve the new owner of the White House in a gamble. Moreover, it is difficult to suspect him of a close acquaintance with the situation in the Caucasus.
However, at the same time it is difficult to assume that Yerevan decided to make statements about the supposedly forthcoming recognition of the NKR without having at least gained understanding, if not support, from friendly forces. In this regard, it is curious that Iran’s defense minister visited Armenia shortly before.
In general, the impact of the Iranian factor on the situation around Karabakh and in the Caucasus in general is not too actively covered in the press. It is understandable: until relatively recently, Iran had different priorities. But now, against the background of the lifting of sanctions from Iran as part of the “nuclear deal”, it is impossible to deny Tehran’s steady build-up of foreign policy activity on almost all fronts. And it would be strange if Iranian strategists did not turn their eyes to Karabakh.
There is no denying that Iran has the capacity to try to play a leading role in resolving this conflict. The territories of modern Armenia, parts of Azerbaijan, including Karabakh, were once part of the Persian Empire. Iran’s ties with both Armenians and Azerbaijanis are of a long-standing historical nature: there are many Armenians in Iran, and they are part of the country’s business and administrative elite. The position of Azerbaijanis, who, by the way, profess Shia Islam, is also strong in Iranian society.
All these advantages of Iran, potential levers of its influence on the situation in the Caucasus and, in particular, around Karabakh have so far disappeared into the country: the Minsk format of the settlement did not leave the slightest opportunity for Iran to intervene. Therefore, it would not be surprising if it turns out that Tehran has decided to replace this format with a new one, which will have a place for it.
Azerbaijan, Nagorno-Karabakh, Armenia – is the problem solvable?
https://www.pravda.ru/world/1318239-gadjiev/
I found interesting and short Greek video, released few hours ago. The video talks about heavy battles. Armenia accusing Azeris of using not only jihadis from Lybia but Turkish soldiers as well. On the other hand Azeris accuse Armenians of using volunteers from all over the world, some of them being Greeks.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5SBu5o1ZzDw
It looks like there is no political solution at the moment.
Video from few days ago shows destruction of Turkish aircraft. They also present Russian request to Turkey to stay out of the conflict. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bzUhurJ_gcs
I had very high regard to your analysis for years. On this one I am really disappointed, I will not go into details and I am subjective because I am Armenian, but your article is more than subjective and chauvinistic. Here is link to retired GRU colonel’s analysis, which I find to be very objective Russian view. Will check see how your analysis holds up in near future…
Check it out:
https://www.facebook.com/kniaz13/videos/10159291917373606/UzpfSTEwMDAwMDM5NTkxNzU3NDozNTIwOTU2NTk3OTI3NTAz/?sk=wall¬if_id=1601757165180763¬if_t=wall
There are a few inaccuracies in the article, in my opinion.
1. We all know, that Nagorno Kharabagh was an INDEPENDENT OBLAST until Stalin arbitrarily and illegally transferred the oblast to Azerbaijan. Armenians have lived in that oblast tens of thousands of years. They are the indigenous people of the region. Whereas, Azerbaijan is a state that was formed in 1918. Armenians of Nagorno Karabagh, under the INTERNATIONAL LAW have the RIGHT TO SELF DETERMINATION.
2. When you say, the velvet revolution of 2018, in Armenia was Soros backed?…makes me laugh….Who the f gives a damn about Soros, when the people of Armenia decided to get rid of their corrupt, dictatorial regime? Just consider, Azerbajan, on the other hand, where journalists are being persecuted, the political opposition is in jail, or non existent. No free and fair political elections. From father to the son, Aliev’s have pillaged Azerbaijan in trillions and is known as the laundromat of the world… This is a country where they make a hero out of a man who kills a sleeping Armenian general in the same room during NATO convention, in Europe.
3. As far as Russia interfering in this war, as of yet, Armenia, has NOT officially asked for military help and intervention, although has a full right to do so, under their agreement in force for decades….Russia is the main supplier of arms to Armenia.
4. As far as NATO AND RUSSIA coming head to head against each other in Armenia…that is not going to happen, because, they did not do so in Ukraine, or any other part of the world where their interests collided.
5. Finally, at all times, prior and after the Velvet Revolution in Armenia, the country remains loyal to all of its obligations to Customs Union, and European Union…all obligations and rights in force for as long as the fall of the Soviet Union.
6. Unlike the war in Syria, where Bashar Assad’s rule was in question, where Bashar Assad requested Russia’s military intervention in order to stay in power, in Armenia, prime Minister, Nikol Pashinian’s rule is NOT in question, rather, it is a geopolitical war, where Recheptai Erdogan is trying to become Middle East’s Sultan of the Ottoman Empire and is using Azerbaijan, to wipe out Armenia and Nagorno Karabagh , and create a new Ottoman Empire, uniting Muslim Azerbaijan to Muslim Turkey… Turkey and Azerbaijan have united, have engaged thousands of Syrian mercenaries in the war in Nagorno Karabagh, and are shamelessly spreading lies and then more lies…The fact to the matter is , both, Aliev and Erdogan are KNOWN to be ruthless dictators, cheats, and thieves. In comparison, you may read all facts and appraisals of Nikol Pashinian’s reputation as a fresh air of democracy that has swept the region of Armenia and Nagorno Karabagh.
Angela, in the first video (actually from 2017) I posted, Armenians actually talked about what you said about Stalin as well as they pointed out the fact that the name Nagorno-Kharabakh (is Russo-Turk) was cooked up by Stalin and Azeris, while the actual Armenian name is/was different.
A sure sign Turkey is losing it’s war in Ngorno Karabakh is the recent press conference with NATO. A sure sign this is a globalist empire’s war, the scenario also happened vs. Syria. Azerbaijan has had serious defeats political and military. France’s president Macron accused pres. Erdogan of recruiting Syrian mercenaries in Turkish occupied areas of Syria and sending them to attack Karabakh. This has been reported widely. The losses of Azerbaijani forces were reported in the thousands, while many of these Syrians islamists have been killed. Material losses of Azerbaijan were quite large. I am of course aware that both sides are overemphasizing their wins and losses accordingly, but Erdogan bringing in the NATO alliance is a good indication, and also tells that the globalist world government with the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative Plan of loosening the Belt from Russia in effect the plan is that Russia is left with the ass bared, and that plan is in full swing in Armenia’s ancient Karabakh Region who was lifted to Azerbaijan by the western built Bolshevik Revolution creation of Soviet Union.
But it is not going so well in this case
https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/hundreds-of-syrian-mercenaries-head-to-azerbaijan-to-replace-lost-fighters-report/
https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/armenia-claims-17-azerbaijani-aircraft-14-helicopters-shot-down-in-one-week/
And the propaganda from pres. Erdogan is becoming absurd:
It is quite obvious that Turkey with NATO are building terrorist outposts in Syria.
I am sorry, here is a missing link : “Turkey accuses Armenia of ‘war crimes’, demands immediate end of ‘occuptation’” and Pres. Erdogan :
https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/turkey-accuses-armenia-of-war-crimes-demands-immediate-end-of-occuptation/
The stated goal of Turkey is to destroy people’s right to self determination wherever they may be, an ideology developed from their own destruction of Kurdish people’s rights in their own country, and historically the genocide against Armenians in Turkey. This is a dangerous ideology and crimes against humanity. Armenians are now targeted in the break away Nagorno Karabak that is historically Armenian by attacking the break away Armenian region. Turkey is supported by NATO.
Turkey claim to support the integrity of Syria, Georgia and Azerbaijan by targeting nationalities they dislike and wage war against such as Armenians and Kurds. NATO is also fighting against orthodox chiristians in Ukraine and supporting the Vatican catholic war against Serbia and supporting Sunni islamic jihadist forces in the Middle East creating their own armies of al Qaeda and IS. NATO is in effect behind enourmous crimes against humanity and other warcrimes and Turkey is a NATO country that is engaged in dangerous ideoligies, racism and crimes against humanity.
https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/turkey-protects-azerbaijans-sovereignty-like-syria-iraq-georgia-fm/
For the Saker’s attention. (s)
—————–
This is a question for The Saker I hope he’ll get to read quickly.
During the Q&A portion of Lavrov’s meeting with the Association of European Businesses in Russia on the 5th, he mentions a new documentary film called “The Wall.” Here’s the relevant section:
“By the way, there have been many reports, analysis pieces and articles recently marking the anniversary of the German reunification. Russian television filmed a two-hour documentary, The Wall, which came to a rather sad conclusion: the Berlin Wall was never destroyed; it simply became virtual and moved to the East very close to the Russian border, despite all the promises and assurances. I will not comment on this film right now. I hope you watched it. If you did not, I recommend it because you will understand a lot about the current conditions for the Russia-Europe relations, how the Russian leadership and Russian people remember the times when – and we all know this very well – Russia played the decisive role in the German reunification, by making a huge sacrifice.”
My question involves your being willing and able to find that film and post it to your website so we can see the Russian POV on that topic and how it relates to current relations. Significantly, Lavrov implies that the EU is becoming like the Outlaw US Empire–it’s not agreement capable.
Thanks for your attention to this. Others are looking, but IMO you have better resources for this task!
It is here. 47.5 minutes long and in Russian as one would expect. Microsoft Edge will translate the page’s text for you, but alas not the film. From what I read, it’s a somewhat critical film given today’s state of affairs. I imagine it was watched by a large portion of Russia’s citizenry, and it may even have had an effect on today’s Putin interview by the film’s broadcaster, Rossiya 1 TV wherein at its end Putin professes having identified with the “Liberal values” within Communism and that might be a point where he and the D-Party candidate might agree upon:
” As for the Democratic candidate, what can I say? We can hear rather sharp anti-Russian rhetoric as well. Regrettably, we have become used to this. But some things are worth mentioning. First, the Democratic Party is traditionally closer to the so-called liberal values, closer to Social Democratic ideas, if compared to Europe. And it was from the Social Democratic environment that the Communist Party evolved.
“After all, I was a member of the Soviet Communist Party for nearly 20 years, or more precisely 18 years. I was a rank-and-file member, but it can be said that I believed in the party’s ideas. I still like many of these left-wing values. Equality and fraternity. What is bad about them? In fact, they are akin to Christian values. Yes, they are difficult to implement, but they are very attractive, nevertheless. In other words, this can be seen as an ideological basis for developing contacts with the Democratic representative.”
I can see Putin’s words being twisted already in support of either side.
I was alerted to another version at Rossiya 24’s You Tube Channel that appears to be 1 hour 24 minutes in length. The comments I translated are heavily negative toward Gorbachev and Yeltsin; one even made the case for both being agents of the West. IMO, the downing of the wall and the ensuing 15 years will be as contentious for Russians and the US Civil War remains within the Outlaw US Empire. But there must be more to it, or Lavrov wouldn’t have made his remarks.
OH,
As far as I can guess, Putin before he was allowed to run for the office of Prime Minister (under Yeltsin) had to promise not to pursue and prosecute Yeltsin and Gorby for treason. Basically had to give them immunity.
My favored argument is the release of Gorby’s memoirs (bio?) for which, accordingly to what I read at the time, he allegedly got paid $8mln. The key word is allegedly.
Because the syrians located the training camps from where the terrorists are coming in Nagorno Karabach and the exact location is 2km from Idlib and they are from the newly equipped and trained Tahrir AlSham divisions … Probably Russia will show some pictures and data to the both Armenian and Azerbaijan leaders today in Moscow …. US backed in my opinion . US and their Hasaka backed terrorists are on the turkish border building tunnels and trenches , US bring so many military vehicles, trucks, technical equipment, weapons and refrigerators there that can both fuel the Nagorno Karabach distraction and secure the Hasaka Mosul Erbil road for the trucks with oil .back to Iraq . US Black Sea and Leviathan idiotic geopolitical plan plus Iran Iraq Syria destabilisation … So much crap in one …
Erdogan is not stupid . By the way our government is full with whores as the Armenian one , imagine , they will build surveillance coordination center here to spy on Russia . Don’t mix the government debilic decisions with the nation opinion . Bulgaria in here . Rand have interesting article about US , Russia and the Black Sea …. Totally delusional but that is known only from the citizens that living on the Black Sea …. US are psychopaths
Andrey,
Just this morning I read an article at FRN reporting on Putin’s TV talk, and I quote FRN:
“… FRN
Speaking to the Rossiya TV network, Putin noted that two million Azerbaijanis and over two million Armenians live in Russia, and that a huge number of Russian citizens maintain “close, friendly and even familial relations with both republics”.
“This is a tragedy,” the president said, adding, “We are very worried, because Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Nagorno-Karabakh are all territories inhabited by people who are not strangers to us.”
Although Russia acts in an official capacity as a meditator of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict, Yerevan and Moscow are officially allied as part of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), along with Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. According to the organization’s agreement, aggression against one CSTO member is perceived as aggression against all.
Therefore, if Azerbaijan attacks Armenia territory, Russia is legally obliged to help Armenia.
“As you know, Armenia is a member of the CSTO, and we have certain obligations to Armenia under this agreement,” Putin explained, stating, “To our great regret, the fighting is still going on, but it is not being conducted on the territory of Armenia.” …”
So, this confirms my thoughts that Russia basically is between the proverbial “Hummer and the Anvil”.
He is also clear about “Armenia’s territory”, which means he will sit on it as long as the conflict is in Nagorno-Karabakh.
Also, I believe, Putin does not want to sever his weak connection to Turkey as far as Syria is concerned.
But it might come to that if Turkey continues its involvement in the conflict.
Also, SF has a blurb about Turkey getting bogged down:
“… Armenian forces have reclaimed the tactical initiative in the battle for the Nagorno-Karabakh region and conducted several counter-attacks taking back positions earlier captured by Azerbaijan on the Jabrayil front on the evening of October 7. Later, on the morning of October 8, the Armenian Defense Ministry announced that Azerbaijani forces had launched a military offensive in the area, which had been repelled.
“Early in the morning, at 08:30, the enemy attempted an attack in the southern direction, but after losing 3 units of military equipment and about 20 soldiers, the enemy escaped from the battlefield near Jabrayil,” the representative of the Armenian Ministry of Defense Artsrun Hovhannisyan said.
“Fighting continues. our troops are performing their tasks brilliantly. We have some good luck, but heavy fighting continues,” he said.
It should be noted that, according to the Armenian side, Jabrayil remains a contested area despite Azerbaijani claims that it had been captured. In their turn, Baku says that all Armenian reports are fake news and their statements about retaking some positions just confirm that they have lost them. …”
The world powerful countries have no human respect. They have only their regional political goals they do not care about human lives. Just profit and political influence.
Check the history: even start from 1920s. Do not go even before that time,
How many times the big countries, I do not want to use their shameless names, shared the Armenian lands for their political achievements in that region like their own.
Shame and shame to all powerful countries. There will be a day when all these big countries will clops like Soviet Union, God will punish them