Dear friends,
First, a quick announcement – I have agreed with a Russian speaking reader to have a SITREP about the Russian Special Military Operation (SMO) every 2nd day.
Here is the first one: http://10.16.86.131/sitrep-operation-z/ (make sure to check it out!!!)
Please drop by and give us your feedback, suggestions, criticisms, etc.!
Second, there is a true panic going through the Russian society. It is due to the talk happening in Turkey between Russians and the Ukronazis. This is a sore point with most Russians because in Russian history there have been plenty of examples of Russian diplomats literally wasting away what was acquired by the blood of Russian soldiers. And just to make it worse, Russians remember the infamous Khasaviurt agreements and the two Minsk Agreements. The notion of a “Minsk 3.0” absolutely horrifies many Russians, including myself. So this begs the question – are these fears founded, yes or no?
I think that they both are and are not founded, let me explain. Here are some of the reasons why these negotiations are creating fear, uncertainty and doubts:
- First, if you want to denazify the Ukraine, why negotiate with Nazis in the first place? Does the concept of “denazification” not imply regime change in Kiev?
- Second, what is the notion of dramatically reducing the combat activities around Kiev and Chernigov??? Does that mean that Russia has given up on the notion of liberating these towns?
- Some of the delegates sent by Russia are rather pathetic looking, like the head of the delegation, Vladimir Medinsky.
- What in the world is Abramovich doing anywhere near these negotiations???
I can try to offer a few answers:
- Always remember that Russians always talk to everybody, including their enemies, even in case of war. So by itself the fact that they are sitting and talking is neither good nor bad, at least in the Russian mindset. Furthermore, if negotiating with Nazis can bring about a desirable outcome at a lower price in human lives and destruction of the civilian infrastructure, then to talk to these Nazis does make sense.
- The one aspect which freaked out the most people is this “reduction in military activities around Kiev and Chernigov” and that fear makes no sense whatsoever. The reality on the ground is simple: the Russians are close enough to both cities to keep them under control and nobody on the Russian side has ever claimed that the Russians intended to occupy these cities. In fact, lowering down the force levels around Kiev and Chernogov would free up some very needed forces to finally finish off the operational cauldron in Donbass. Finally, as with any unilateral gesture of goodwill, the side which said “yes” cannot say “no” 30 seconds later, that is the key characteristic of a unilateral “sign of goodwill” and any well trained negotiator will immediately recognize that kind of “gestures of goodwill” as a negotiating technique aimed at creating a specific mental dynamic in which both sides are pushed towards a specific outcome.
- If you think Medinsky is uninspiring, there is even worse. One member of the Russian delegation specifically is a total imbecile and a loudmouth who likes to proffer inanities with a very loud voice. This is Russian State Duma’s Foreign Affairs Committee Leonid Slutsky. To show you how stupid (and probably corrupt) this guy is, read this article where he calls the Houthis “terrorists”! There are some very sharp guys in that delegation too, I think of Boris Gryzlov for example. As for what in the world Abramovich is doing in Turkey, I am as baffled by this as everybody else, especially since the claim that he was kinda poisoned about a month ago, and it must have been by the Russians, since Abramovich survived, like all the other putative previsions victims of Russian poisoning attempts (and, considering that Abramovich survived, this MUST have been “Novichok”, right?!)
So? Is it time to freak out?
Nope, but it is time to make sure to convey to the Kremlin that we are all tense and that the Russian public opinion would be overwhelmingly against any type of Minsk 3.0, Abramovich or not.
Personally, I don’t like any of those talks, I tend to distrust Russian diplomats and I am quite aware that there are plenty of Atlantic Integrationists in the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Duma and Presidential Administration. And, as I have mentioned, the history of Russia is full of examples of civilian diplomats pissing away what was conquered at a great price in blood.
That being said,
It is way, waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay too early to start freaking out. First, if you listened, like I did, to the short statement of the Russian negotiators you will notice that the Russians only repeated the Ukrainian position, they did not say a word about what Russia would or would not do. They presented “reduction in military activity” as a “sign of good will”, but these are empty words, the military activity that really matters today is the one in Mariupol and in the Donbass, and about that the Russians did not say a word.
I also remind you that Russia uses the following technique quite often: appear to make concessions to your enemy knowing full well that your concessions are never going to be acceptable to that enemy, and when that enemy shows that he will not accept your concession, take unilateral actions and blame it on your enemy. That is *exactly* what Russia did, it turns out very successfully, with the two Minsk Agreements.
So this is what the French called a “storm in a glass of water” – lots of rumors and armchair strategists proclaiming with great gravitas that “Putin is about the betray the Donbass”, which has been their mantra for 7 years and which they keep chanting while the Russians liberate town after town in the Ukraine. Frankly, I am personally sick and tired of these second-guessing 6th columnists who are oh-so-certain that if THEY were in the Kremlin they would do so much better than Putin. I wish they would learn to shut up, wait for the facts on the ground to be parsed in sufficient number and care, and then only made conclusions. But I know that this is a vain hope, those who have been saying that “all is lost” for 8 years now won’t shut up no matter what is really going on.
Which brings me to the latest news of the day: Mariupol.
There is some pretty good evidence that Mariupol is basically in Russian hands. Yes, there are still a few scattered Nazis in the city, but they are mostly hiding in basements and in various well-protected locations inside the Azovstal industrial complex. Also, the much-announced Ukronazi counter-offensive from Nikolaev to deblock Mariupol has totally failed, the units were immediately detected by the Russian intelligence service, so they were first hit with missile strikes and then finished off with Russian close air support. Yesterday, a Mi-8 helicopter was seen probably trying to evacuate the commanders of the Nazi force in Mariupol, but it was shot down.
This brings all points to the same reality: Mariupol has fallen and the defenses of Nikolaev have been severely degraded.
One last comment: all this “storm in a glass of water” proves again how primitive and misguided the Russian public information remains. I mean, seriously, how stupid are the folks in the Kremlin not to realize that ambiguous statements from Russian negotiators will immediately result in 6th column hysterics and a tsunami of rumors, some of them incredibly stupid and some of them very damaging to the Russian side.
Frankly, I would give the Russian PR/PSYOP/Information operations people a “F” for totally mismanaging the CRUCIAL aspect of public communications, especially during a war.
As for negotiating with the Nazis, I totally support such talks, but only if Russia is represented by one civilian, say Boris Gryzlov, and one military or ex-military man, like General Vladimir Shamanov. Second, I would demand a total embargo on the progress of talks until the Russians decide that a major goal has been achieved or until the Russian side gets fed up and leaves (General Shamanov has a short temper and no appreciation for crooks or their bullshit).
As a blogger, I spend way too much time in that frustrating sequence:
- The Russians say something really asinine
- The 6th column freaks out and goes “AHA! Told ‘ya!”
- Then I have to explain that while the comment is, indeed, asinine, it carries no weight at all until and unless the Russians put ink to paper on the top level. Until then, all these declarations and statements are just hot air.
Every time a blogger needs to do that, it is proof that somebody on the Russian side screwed-up (again!) and is not taking his/her job seriously.
Please tell me that over time, and with more of these PR faceplants happening with a steady regularity somebody in Moscow will finally wake up, fire all the clowns who have no idea of what an effective information campaign should have looked like, and replace them with folks who actually understand both the nature and importance of their tasks.
But I am not holding my breath: being appallingly inept at information operations seems to be a Russian specialty.
But if that is really so, they the Russians have to 1) admit it to themselves and to the Russian people and 2) completely rebuilt the public information strategy and hire real professionals to execute it.
But that is wishful thinking: when I look at the faces of Medinsky or Abramovich I feel what many US Americans feel with they look at, say, Blinken or Musk – one is a born loser the other one a born crook. A very uninspiring and depressing sight…
Anyway, that’s from me for today.
“See you” soon
Andrei
PS: and if you wonder what the Nazi crazies are up to, here is a good one: they want to ban the letter “Z”. This tells you that the Ukies MUST be winning, right? If they are down to fighting letters of the alphabet, the war must be going so well for them that I can’t even put it in words, right? :-)
Have a look at this (thanks to Voltaire Net, Thierry Meyssan ):
DeGaulle in Moscow, in French and Russian :
https://youtu.be/QnB4Ybz3L7A?t=882
Make no Oracle-at-Delphi hallucinogenic babbling about what will happen next.
Meanwhile : /russian-special-military-operation-smo-day-33/
I think Moscow is aware of this…
Correct link :
https://www.voltairenet.org/article216301.html#nb3-1
CIA preparing targeted assassinations in Ukraine
Those Afghans will blend in nicely with the ethnic Ukrainian population.
Cheers M
They could be easily mistaken for Russian Tajiks, though…
putin is just PART of a system. Russia like all mankind has good people and a minority of bad people. Putin is doing his best. As Putin said in the Oliver Stone documentary, he doesn’t run the government, he’s just a servant of the system. If there’s someone here on the blog who still doesn’t love Putin, it’s because he still doesn’t know human nature. If you’ve read all the books in the world, but you still don’t know human nature, you’re not cultured!!!
There are other people besides Putin who are wonderful people, but Putin is doing his best for humanity and for his team that is Russia. Sorry friends, I’m tired of humanity. All my studies, books, knowledge show me that most of humanity is simply petty materialists. Putin also fights pettiness in Russia. But he’s a good soldier and he’s doing his best. All my family members are making materialistic and petty plans for the future, and I pray to God that humanity does not have the 3rd world war, because there are still righteous people on the planet. If the war stops now, maybe Putin is also preventing World War 3. God help us friends!
Completely agree. That’s why worrying about human opinion is a total waste of time.
God willing as long as there are a few of the righteous humanity won’t be destroyed.
What can be distinguished in the bottom line after reading and listening to everything said.
FIRST. All that was said was the opinion of the negotiators. What they really tried to agree on there would become clear after reading the documents, but no one has yet been given the opportunity to read them.
SECOND. All that has been voiced is not yet a solution. Decisions will be made by Putin in Moscow and Zelensky in Kyiv (or wherever he is now, the Turks said they met him in Lvov). Each of the parties may not be satisfied with some points and no documents will be signed as a result.
THIRD. Russia’s special operation in Ukraine does not stop. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu on the same day stressed that the liberation of Donbass would continue. And the decrease in combat activity in the Kiev and Chernihiv directions does not at all mean the cessation or even intensification of hostilities in southern Ukraine or in the east. Excuse me, Russia has not taken on such obligations.
FOURTH. Ukraine is now doing everything to delay the situation. Under the pretext of the need to hold a referendum, Kiev will now in every possible way activate the topic of a complete ceasefire, the withdrawal of Russian troops, and so on.
FIFTH. Even if some decisions are reached, there are no guarantees that the Ukrainian side will be able to implement them. The Minsk agreements are an example of this. In this case, even if a peace treaty is signed, Ukraine’s failure to implement it will release Russia from its obligations.
SIXTH. Something suggests that the Ukrainian side is again, as it almost always happens to them, wishful thinking. Vladimir Vladimirovich, long before the start of the special operation, and then during it, repeatedly informed the world and Vladimir Alexandrovich that “the topic of Crimea is closed and is not discussed.” And Kyiv’s proposal to discuss the issue of Crimea will obviously not find even the slightest understanding in Moscow.
Note that Medinsky summed up his briefing with the following words: “These are not provisions of the treaty, these are Ukrainian proposals, which we consider a constructive step.”
In any case, this is just one of the rounds of negotiations in which they do not make decisions, but discuss options.
P.S. And yet questions remain, many questions. And what will happen to the Nazis in Ukraine? For example, with those who tortured Russian prisoners – do they really go unpunished?
It can be said that the same Medinsky, who, during a short break during the negotiations, came out and told reporters that “Ukraine promised to take the most severe measures against the criminals who tortured Russian military personnel” partly answered this question. And after a pause, he added: “If ours don’t manage to find them before then.”
—Komsomolskaya Pravda
Why would the Russian’s give a cat’s ass about the negotiations when the “demilitarization” facet of the SMO is basically finished in Russia’s favour. There is really nothing to negotiate, so why not use the “negotiations” to confuse the enemy?
Negotiations serve all sorts of useful purposes. Mainly to emotionally reinforce the notion amongst Zone B nations that Russia is not to be feared like the U.S., that Russia is “reasonable” and like them truly interested in peace. Also to exacerbate the emerging split amongst Nato countries. And tactically to spread disinformation and to trace it as it wends its way via Western structures.
I concur
I do not.
These “negotiations” lead to bad PR for Russia, the western press always spins them that way. They are only for the Ukraine puppet side to goad and aggravate Russia. Russia shouldn’t be doing them so frequently. They can still look “reasonable” if they wait several weeks longer between them.
The less time “negotiating” with U.S.’s evil puppets the better. It can once every 1-3 months go through these stupid shams to show it is trying to be reasonable with the unreasonable.
I don’t think Russia cares about what western mass media tell about them.
They are obviously winning and negotiations are always good if you manage them. They help you to mislead the enemy, to induce them to errors and finally to create a kind of official document that give you rights in the future.
People should stop worrying about leaders of Russia betraying Russia. At this point all leaders of Russia knows that if they loose they end like Gadaffi.
Russians leaders are fighting for their survival as much as Russian people, this is indeed a very big political triumph of Putin. Traitors always come from elites, if elites are in the same ship like the people things are easier.
Being fair statements form US help him to make this cristal clear..
You can see that Russia is serious in this point of gas supply to Europe. Europe reject to pay and Yamal is going to be close on Thursday .
As we can see from the storm of bullshit flying, and we know most of it by the CIA and the US dept of state and amplified and disseminated by the western corporate bureau’s of state approved publicity, as well as the known traitors within the Russian ruling class, hostile negotiations are used for lots of things, including intelligence gathering. The its been explained to me by someone i believe, is that, now Mauriupol invaders have been reduced, Russian troops will increase their fire cover of Kiev, move forces , including new reinforcements into western Donbas and destroy the highly degraded, but still largest part of the Hohol army – about 60,000 troops – out in the open. The US who planned Ukraines war turned the cities of the DPR,LPR into heavily fortified hostage zones, and expected Russian forces to charge right into them. The whole purpose of the “cavalry charge” -first stage- was to run through and around those defenses, divide and sequester Ukop army into segments, then clean out the rats nests in the east.- stage 2..now stage 3 will be wholesale destruction of (highly degraded) ukrop army (out in the open) where massive air power can be engaged against it.Then kiev, Lviv, and wherever else they want to go will be a stroll.Ive been told they will probably partion the country from just west of Kiev to Moldova, and allow a (demillitarized) Banderastan to the west.
I’m right there with you. If one looked at the begging of the SMO that it was an offensive that broke up, due to airpower, stand-off weapons, and artillery and tanks. Basically, soften up the Ukrainians and isolate them with the use of tactical double envelopment maneuvers
In other words, now that the AFU is desperate and have, if not have fallen apart, except for the hardcore zealots being managed by American and Israeli advisors, the hair-splitting, mopping-up nasty work starts.
So, as the old Guard of the AFU has been driven away from the battlefield, Russia must get her ‘ hardware ‘ out, lest it becomes the target of a low-intensity insurgency.
Once the heavy ground forces are effectively and safely doubled back to phase one position, the work of Special Forces, Naval Marines go in, ala Kadyrov’s Men, and Spetznaz units on the hunt. Match terror with terror. Start hanging these marauding Nazi terrorists from lampposts. And wherever there is even a small, to medium gathering still, send in Kalibr sub-sonic, and hypersonic missiles.
Not hard to guess about Abramovich and co. Traditionally, they are pulling the strings after all.
I don’t believe that he has so much power. There has to be someone in the military branch. The military holds the keys (force) to power, after all.
he is rumoured to be buying a football club in Turkey, maybe he’s just eyes and ears on the ground and a little bit of confusion for the opposition. If these were really serious ‘high level’ talks he wouldn’t be there. It is perhaps a sign of the degree of seriousness with which the kremlin is not taking these talks, plus maybe Abramovich wanted to be seen in public after the ‘novichok’ rumours. I read nothing into these talks at all, Kiev is having the crap bombed out of it again tonite so …
It has been known that Abramovitch and other oligarch are now persona non grata in the UK.
Oligarchs are looking for some nice place where they can still run some business and encounter a decent life standing.
It seems that some chose to go to the Emirates, while Abramovitch has some views on Turkey (where he will be able to continue to run a football club).
My guess is that Abramovitch was blackmailed by the british: either you play this stupid poisoning rumor and you will be able to sell Chelsea FC before leanving, either you lose all you have in the UK.
I was at another site, noticing all the usual ‘Russia is going to lose’ comments and it struck me that such an overlay of delusional thought may be very beneficial. It tends to reduce reaction or care about the outcome by opponents.
I think we may see a notion emerging in which Ukraine “won” somehow, regardless of facts. They drove off the invaders, “we showed them!” Nevermind that most of their equipment is gone, along with the Neo Nazis and their economy and millions of their population and a big chunk of Donbass. It might be useful to hold back laughter, when the time comes. Let them believe.
If this sounds crazy, then I must point out that Western culture zealously claims that a human with male genitalia is a woman or that prosperity can result from printing more money. Or that tribalism offers a greater freedom than being united and principled. The famous pianist Liberace used to answer his critics that “he wept all the way to the bank”. Perhaps this applies.
I am also kind of irritated about the bs in the West, it gets more and more insane. Still many people believe all the Nonsense, I am kind of shocked after 2 years of lies with Covid there are still that many people believing all the made up stories. They are living in an absolute fantasy now, Russia will win this war decisively and will win in the economic war also, but those morons will spin it, as if they won it.
Jo, I had probably already supposed here, that it will again be up to the Russians, to help the now collective West in a face-saving way out of the impasse, into which it has maneuvered itself .
A “grandiose, humiliating victory” is a benefactor only for the victor – the other side secretly swears revenge …
It’s both “buy time” and “stress test” I believe. “Buy time” before crazies do some horrendous false flag around Kiev and stress test for the 5-th and 6-th column, stress test for the Russian public about either they support some de-escalation or not, stress test for the “international community”. Who knows what’s Putin up to. Chess and Judo combined are interesting. Actually I think the false flag doesn’t even need to be executed in Ukraine. They can produce it in some Hollywood studio. [Wag the Dog] style is enough for the sheeple to buy it (given that I am Albanian)
Yet I don’t see a de-escalation, I see troops being redeployed to different areas. Did any troops leave Ukraine, no. Was any major weaponry withdrawn from the field, no. Is there any decrease in overall effort, no. There is no de-escalation, there is a redeployment that is all.
This talk is just Ukraine spin IMO.
I didn’t say that there is an actual de-escalation. I am speculating about “stress test” on Russian public. God knows what’s in play, but the fog of war is getting thicker. Dementia, combined with evil deeds are recipe for disaster. Let’s hope the best.
While the last two or three days have told us that the Ukrainian Armed Forces have effectively collapsed, except for some hardcore zealots ala SS style, mysteriously, one of America’s A-Listing actors slapped one of America’s A-Listing comedians on the stage of America’s most-watched show, the Hollywood-Judaic-Party scene, the dripping, nasty, drenched with corruption, the Oscar’s.
If that is not wag-the-dog i don’t know what is.
Macron called Putin and wanted to evacuate Mariupol. Can there be any significant French among the Nazis from AZOV? Does Macron have a problem now?
I am sure a lot of Special Forces and Intelligence Agents from the US, France, UK and a couple of other NATO-Nations are all over Ukraine, so maybe he is doing it because of that. But he must be a utter tool to believe anyone in Russia is considering this.
In France near the presidential election, Macron must be nervous :-)
The upcoming election explains Macron’s actions.
Russia has been know to release trapped ” Western agents ” many times in the past.
Any foreign forces of any type that are captured should be eliminated immediately. There is no respect given for mercy so make an example & just kill them -it’s the only lesson needed.
It’s a no brainer, Leo : no need to secret agents, Macron loves and wants to be part of the biggest show around : good for ensuring his (very likely) reelection. And that’s it.
A lot of Israeli military advisors. Of various kinds.
The call came in, now Macron has to jump.
This Article- Removed. Mod. has Vids of Russian POW’s being Tortured. This needs a Declaration that no Azov ‘nazi’ or Ukrop Troops should be “Taken Prisoner”. Kill them in their Positions, Kill them if they try to Surrender.
The Bear has tried Awfully Hard to be “Nice” and avoid Civilian Casualties, but it is coming to where some Cities need to be Burned to Rubble, to Make a Point. I’m sure that the President, and the General Staff may have Hoped that this Operation would have led to a Rapid Collapse of ‘country 404’ but now it seems that the (((controllers))) are Determined to Fight to the last goyim.
I rather Doubt that anything short of the Tanks rolling to within Sight of the Polish Border is going to have any effect on the anglo-zionists of FUSSA and “the” UK.
“Kill them if they try to Surrender.”
No, I don’t agree. Dostoyevsky, through Prince Mishkin (in The Idiot) tries to describe the horrendous state of mind and spirit of an prisoner waiting his death sentence being executed. Killing someone in action is a matter of adrenaline. One can kill or being killed, but here is always hope that one can somehow escape the fighting without being killed. On the other hand waiting the sure death causes tremendous suffer. And yes, there should be reconstituted the death penalty. At least for war crimes.
No.
A man of honour does not lower himself to the level of his dishonourable opponent for to do so demeans himself.
Reacting to dishonour with dishonour is the equivilent of arguing with stupid people… they drag you down to their level and beat you with experience.
You, gentlemen, don’t understand Nazism nor Rabbinical Talmudic Judaism. Killing on masse is totally permissible.
I don’t know the Russians involved…but I wouldn’t be surprised if they sent Columbo and Mr Bean, just to deek out the Orcs. If Russia sends negotiators say like Lavrov…..well, where would Ukraine find negotiators of that Kalibar? Like a Professor negotiating with a four year old…..anyway, for me, besides retaking the entire LDPR back to pre Maiden days, removing Ukraine access to the Black Sea is very important. A rat-route to resupply terrorists, unless Russia can stand up (I’d bet they’ve got contacts in the works) a Ukrainian security force to self police the country. Drawing down is a nice gesture, but sometimes one’s generosity can be mistaken for stupidity.
Also on the ground intel as to where the merc holes are, they should be plugged. May require several treatments.
Ban the letter Z….elinski…..sounds like a cross dressing comic……
Cheers M
Nothing that has happened today is of great consequence. Placing together entities who wield no power is for Showbiz.
What’s important though, indeed vital, is that Russia/Putin go ahead with the Rouble Plan on 31/3/2022.
It’s possible this indignity has forced the EU tae think again.
Remember, a focused Russia is dealing with a very much fragmented failed state and its suitors.
Very well spoken. Much of what is happening this week is related to the rouble plan. If he is really to humiliate the West on Thursday, Putin is unlikely to “front-load” that humiliation with petty acts on Tuesday and Wednesday. It will be very interesting to see if the G7 statement was merely face-saving for public consumption.
Bingo!
After more than four weeks of death & destruction, suddenly Zelenskyy’s handlers are motivated to negotiate.
Why now?
Perhaps the battle turmoil is no longer contained within the Ukraine border.
Maybe the fall out is spreading and threatens contamination elsewhere.
I expect the Rouble Plan is the guerilla tactic getting all the attention behind the scenes.
Consider that NATO vassals needing gas right now (or their citizens riot tomorrow), dutifully paying Euros for it into ‘frozen accounts’, are told it’s a breach of contract as the seller is denied access to their funds.
Behind the scenes, EU leaders are running around with their tits in a tangle, pleading with their Anglo masters in Brussels to change course before all is irreparably lost.
High stakes indeed.
Just today, I saw RT sharing an info from the Financial Times – the same “newspaper” that has been continuously slandering Russia for ages. I sometimes think Russians only speak an European language by chance, as though it simply weren’t internalized on them. Only that can explain the lack of communication-informational abilities of the Russian government.
Didn’t Tsoy sing: “Я полцарства отдам за коня… А когда приходит время вставать, мы сидим, мы ждем…”
(I’d give half a kingdom for a horse… And when the time comes to stand up, we sit, we wait.)
Why in the world would Russia conduct “negotiations” with the Bandera Nazis in TURKEY of all places, Erdog is literally selling TB2 drones to Zelensky which have already killed and maimed countless Russian soldiers thus far??
I read somewhere today (sorry don’t remember the source): He who mediates between two brothers will end up having two enemies. And Russians and Ukrainians are brothers.
But please tell me: where do you think the negotiations should take place? It should be a neutral place, acceptable to both parties in the conflict. A place that can guarantee the safety of both delegations. It should be reachable by both delegations without travelling across half the world. The sanctions & air space closures add additional problems.
Russia and Ukraine are obviously out. EU / UK / US have taken the side of Ukraine, and are waging a sanctions war on Russia. Switzerland has forsaken its neutrality, therefore cannot host the negotiations. Belarus has hosted such negotiations in the past. But if Russians freak out at the idea of a Minsk III accord, what do you think Ukrainians will feel about that possibility?
Turkey managed to keep good – or at least functional – relations to both Ukraine and Russia.
The Ukrainian initial offer appears to be a indication that Moscow has essentially achieved its goals. If this is the Ukie initial offer, then the final result will be much pleasing to everyone.
Anyone who is worried about Russian diplomats messing up better close read the entire Lavrov interview posted today on Saker.
Finally – thank you Saker for giving nightvision the SITREP spot. Nightvision is a solid first rate analyst and backs ups his presentation with beaucoup links. You are going to be very happy you have Nightvision the platform.
“appears to be a indication that Moscow has essentially achieved its goals.”
“then the final result will be much pleasing to everyone.”
The level of delusion is amounting to a religion.
I think an agreement between Russia and Ukraine is very far away. I don’t know what the final agreement will be, but I’m sure it will be exactly what Russia decided it would be prior to the beginning of the military operation.
Oh I agree, but the point is not the negotiations, its the PR disaster in how the Russians explain what they are doing to their own people and the world.
This is NOT a negotiation disaster
ONLY a PR disaster :-)
IMHO the Russians can’t always spell out exactly what the plan is and what they mean when they say this or that – to keep the enemy guessing. Granted, it keeps the people of Russia guessing too, but one has to have a modicum of trust in Putin and Shoigu, and Lavrov for that matter…
I also think that the grey mouse Medinsky is perfect for the negotiation job, you’d have to be of a certain temperament and level headed to put up with the BS of the baseball cap wearing, gum chewing contemptuous ukies. Any normal hot blooded person would lose patience with them in an instant.
My 2 cents… :-)
I would add that judging the situation in Ukraine goes back 150 years, in examining the history of the US Civil War.
There was debate about how to defeat the South. Some thought it was important to seize the capital of the Confederacy. Sherman thought burning down the plantations and destroying everything in sight was important. Grant added, the surrender of the Confederate Army.
They were right. You can always move a capital. Laying waste to everything tends to be definitive.
Sherman, the Burning of Atlanta, the March to the Sea.
Watch the Yankees in the early stages of learning the art of War Crimes.
There is a reason Americans refer to their first civil war as “The First Civil War”: everybody expects a second one. That is the problem with war crimes, people never forget nor forgive.
A very Zio-Anglo mode of thinking, Burn, Loot and Murder in order to revel in the destruction…
I think it´s shown that the Russians ARE a Christian nation while the US(and their Vassals) obviously more resemble the Talmudic ideal, don´t worry though, the Sanctions will give us all a taste of destruction. Hunger riots where the West unleash BLM/Antifa on their own population in order to then proclaim Martial Law and move in the Army seems a likely play in our future, the rest of the world will probably follow.
“Frankly, I am personally sick and tired of these second-guessing 6th columnist who are oh-so-certain that if THEY were in the Kremlin they would do so much better than Putin. I wish they would learn to shut up, wait for the facts no the grounds to parsed in sufficient number and care, and then only made conclusions.”
I completely agree. The statement of the Swedish diplomat Lagerbilke, expressed by him to the emperor against Alexander, is quite applicable to Putin – “In politics, Alexander is thin, like the tip of a pin, sharp, like a razor, and fake, like sea foam.”
My take is that 99% of the 6th columnists deeply yearn for Russia’s ultimate defeat, humiliation, and surrender. Essentially, a 6th columnist is a 5th columnist with messiah complex. An ordinäry 5th columnist is just fine with greed, possibly spiced with evil.
Shadow fighting with 6th columnists 5th columnists or whatever columinists don’t save all those dead Russian soldiers from death.
according to the Nightvision report, the Ukrainians are saying there is a build up of Russian armour just across the border from Kiev. Just as Russia, in a show of good will, moves its forces from Kiev to Donbas. Will the Orcs take the bait? Come out of their entrenchments in Kiev to attempt an attack on the rear of the Russian forces? Sounds like a set up…..
Cheers M
I wish people will spare the time to read Machiavelli’s “Prince” for clear discussion of how to secure a result; and Clausewitz “On War” to remind themselves that after any war, the parties do have to return to the negotiating table.
Somebody who thinks that making a settlement is a betrayal of the blood of the fallen has forgotten that to continue without a conclusion will only ensure that more blood is shed.
Russia has chosen a good negotiator who is driving the process on a straight line towards the terms that Russia wants. Russians might prefer a cocky, smug, arrogant person, but such a one would not get the required result. There is a long way to go. Part of the process is allowing enough time for the victors to get over their pride and get resigned to the limitations of war. As I recall, Clausewitz is good on that, too.
Banning the letter “Z”, respelling city names, coming unglued at “the” in front of Ukraine…. their focus on trivialities has taken their eye off the ball.
Zurich Insurance changes its logo. It doesn’t want anyone to think that it supports Russia because it had the “Z” as a logo. Germany has started banning the letter Z, too – Lower Saxony and Bavaria were first to threaten legal action.
At least they should follow through and replace “Z” with “TS” in writing everywhere. Written German will look even more retarded than the gendering makes it look.
Question: if I see a T-Shirt with “TS” printed on it, will that count as supporting Russia, or will that count as supporting Ukraine?
I think Zelensky/Ukraine is getting his answer to those arrogant “peace terms” of his —– right now.
Frankly, or maybe not, I am surprised by the panicky tone of Saker in today’s post. I get it, it is stressful to be immersed in a toxic media bubble for long, it gets under your skin and affects your thinking.
And I am also surprised, and disappointed if true, that Russia doesn’t manage to send diplomats with clear, airtight instructions to the negotiations. That is 101 in negotiations. Freelancing amateurs or emotionally driven persons do not belong in these talks. Maybe just maskirovka. Because Lavrov clearly stated some days ago in an extensive transcription that “lessons have been learnt”. I really wish to think so. That lessons have been learnt. Dillydallying diplomats are not lessons learnt. Keeping my fingers crossed.
I conclude that Russia has all the time in the world to send halfwits and losers. Let the Ukies fish an eel from a bucket of snot.
Next time, Russia should just send a whole set of new people, just to confuse their counterparts. Meanwhile the clock is ticking, and the Special Operation proceeding……
Panicky?
Did you even bother reading what I wrote?
Probably not…
Andrei, thank you for reading my comments. I do read your stuff carefully 🙂, and your posts since 2014, when I discovered your blog resonates well with my own extensive ongoing and past experience with Russia and international affairs, not as a bystander, but as a family man, business person, practitioner, up to my elbows in grease, and more so.
Perhaps the choice of the word “panicky” was inaccurate, but I read between the lines in your post uneasiness/doubt about diplomatic performance when you reported about the history and current state of negotiations. I hope I didn’t come across as disrespectful, as that was not my intention.
Maybe you are right to criticize past and present diplomatic efforts of Russia at the negotiation table. I however do believe outcome of negotiations is a function of perception of negotiation power by each party. And in that light, I believe Russia has been factually weak, ie not being able to put muscle behind demands in previous rounds of negotiations in the space following the Maidan. And therefore “yielded” in many aspects. RF has been painfully aware of it, and addressed those issues accordingly ever since. That’s just what it is.
Fast forwarding, Russia’s position since late autumn of 2021 have been crystal clear, at least to myself, and also to yourself I deduct, given your excellent and extensive reporting on that matter. No, I am not saying I knew or imagined or even predicted about what steps or measures RF would take on the unfriendlies as a consequence having ignoring relevant, reasonable and legitimate requests of RF. I am saying that the steely resolve and seriousness, from someone knowing well it’s strengths and weaknesses, that’s what I finally see in Russia’s decisions and policy change as of late. Let’s hope that resolve is also reflected in those that carry out the negotiations on behalf of Russia going forward Keep up the excellent and important work with your site. Be safe, stay strong. NP
What I think is a likely outcome:
Within the next 4 weeks there will be a cease fire.
Russia will have defeated the Ukrainian forces east of Dnjepr and will be able to prevent fresh forces from entering the area.
Ukrainian forces operationability is drastically reduced. They are out of fuel, ammo, transportation. Major weapons systems to sustain offensive Manouvers Are destroyed to about 70%. Artillery support can be picked up by Russian Air Force on the Spot.
East of Dnjepr is thus under complete Russian military Control – albeit not administrative control. Charkow and Dnjepopetrowsk will not be taken!
Ukraine will acknowledge indipendence or autonomy of Donbas region. I assume with added territory: Complete „Oblasts“ of Donezk and Luhansk and Russia will also press for getting a land-bridge / corridor from Russia to Crimea. Now with Mariupol destroyed, Ukraine has not much left to lose here. I also assume area around Mariupol will be the last for Russian combat units to leave.
Ukraine will renounce NATO-ambitions but will demand (and get) strong security guarantees – made sure by neighbouring countries like Poland and mediating countries like Israel. Maybe Turkey. Maybe even France since she seems to have best ties left to Russia.
I can even see Poland be allowed to establishing garrisons in western Ukraine.
Hopefully, for all sides Ukraine will renounce NATO-ambitions for good, not only temporarily. A viable arrangement could look like this: polish forces in the west. Ukrainian armed forces to be rebuilt and restructured. East of Ukraine either:
Completely demilitarized (unlikely and too harsh a concession)
Temporarily demilitarized but Israeli, Turkish and other forces functioning as kind of „Blue helmets“ to keep the Russians at bay there and react to any Russian provocation.
Hopefully and probably: no more nationalistic or fascist militias east of Dnjepr. This would be a major „save face“ for Russia: „denazification“ achieved. This would do wonders for peace in the Donbas and fulfill the defunct Minsk-treaty.
Hopefully no NATO tactical mid and long-range Misslies ever in Ukraine. Again. This would bring so much stability to Eurasia.
Some sanctions will surely be lifted but not many. NATO won’t waste the opportunity of prolonged economic warfare when they can no longer threaten Russia’s Ural region ballisticaly.
An expensive but still a victory for Russia.
But Ukraine will need a victory price too. And that will be EU-membership within 5-10 years. Russia will need to give up any resistance to that here
Those ideas would be an almost total victory for Ukraine.And allow them to complete their anti-Russian national project.
You still didn’t get it!
What you’re proposing is exactly, what people misunderstood, from the statement of the negotiator and what lead to the confusion in our discussion.
There can’t be EU light, EU means NATO or a future EU-force.
Also, to mention way to much “hopefully”. There can’t be a “hopefully” no NATO, a “hopefully” no missiles, a “hopefully” the Nazis calm down and stop hating.
Hope requires faith and trust. Neither Kiev nor the empire has any credit left in those departments.You just don’t leave the weapons in the hands of your enemies, in the hope, they won’t use them.
Then you really haven’t learned anything from bad experiences.
“being appallingly inept at information operations seems to be a Russian specialty.”
Maybe. The Russians may actually be in a very strong PR position in the long run. The West is telling the usual wholesale lies. Meanwhile, the Russians are truthful and being careful to avoid war crimes. In the short term the lies work, but much of the truth should eventually come out. At that point, who is winning the PR war? The U.S. is always about the short term. In fact, by not waging an aggressive PR campaign, the Russians may be luring Washington into telling more lies then it would otherwise. In a variety of ways– militarily, financially, politically, Western credibility is being torn to shreds, comprehensively.
5 minutes after 9/11 the majority knew it was Bin Laden. 10 years later most believe it was a false flag.
5 minutes before the second invasion of Iraq the majority knew Iraq had WMDs. A year later everyone knew they didn’t.
5 minutes before Russia’s special operation everyone knew that Putin was trying to resurrect the USSR …
I continue to be amazed at how people still believe the s#!t shoveled by the US and EU media.
Agree with one edit, ” 5 minutes after 9/11 the majority were TOLD it was Bin Laden.”
I have been surprised too. A day or two before the invasion, a blog I read tried to argue that a math conference should be relocated from St. Petersburg. I was disappointed by the credulity of that blogger, who was accepting the Zone A narrative hook, line, and sinker. I tried to make two comments arguing against this. My second comment made it through moderation as an example of “Russian propaganda”:
https://www.math.columbia.edu/~woit/wordpress/?p=12717&cpage=1#comments
Well said and agreed.
To offer something more positive to our host here: Saker, consider that by far the most effective media element thus far has been the true kill shot uttered by Putin: ‘the Empire of Lies.’
Long after this is over, that phrase will remain.
Indeed, I believe the current strategy is as much dedicated to exposing and toppling the Empire of Lies as it is in pacifying the situation in Ukraine on the ground.
Because that situation is a result of geopolitical games played by the Empire and Russia (and Eurasian allies) have decided that a red line has been crossed and it is time to hit back.
The big thing right now is not negotiations in Turkey but what happens on April Fool’s Day when the USD is no longer accepted for Russian gas purchases by European nations. This will prove to be an economic kill shot.
Will European gas consumers hold to their American master’s diktats and go without the needed fuel? Or will they submit to Russian demands and pay for their energy in rubles thereby hastening the end of USD hegemony. This is a HUGE thing far bigger than anything happening on the ground in Ukraine.
Russia looks like it has an answer for every AngloZionist axis move.
Gradually this strength will be generally perceived and as the Bear emerges through the fog of disinformation and her strength is appreciated finally, so also will the Empire of Lies be revealed as such, hollow, vapid, unprincipled, dishonorable, mean-spirited and no longer worthy of being followed.
Russia should hire you as their public relations chief or consultant.
If any Russian official is reading this, please suggest this to the Russian government.
Wir sind hier eingesperrt in einem Gefängnis, das von Nazis und Verrückten beherrscht wird. Beim letzten Einkauf habe ich fast nichts bekommen von dem, was ich haben wollte – vieles war völlig ausverkauft, oder es war rationiert – „nur ein Stück pro Haushalt“.
Yandex-Übersetzung:
We are locked up here in a prison ruled by Nazis and madmen. At the last purchase I got almost nothing of what I wanted – a lot was completely sold out, or it was rationed – “only one piece per household”.
– Andrei
… and if you wonder what the Nazi crazies are up to, here is a good one: they want to ban the letter “Z”.
– Indian Express
16:41 (IST)
28 MAR 2022
Displaying ‘Z’ symbol could be criminal act in Germany, ministry says
Individuals who display the letter “Z” in Germany to symbolise support for Russia’s war in Ukraine could be liable to prosecution, an Interior Ministry spokesperson said on Monday.
The interior minister for the state of Berlin said earlier that city authorities would jump on cases of the Z symbol being used to endorse Russia’s aggression, following announcements by Bavaria and Lower Saxony that they too would punish such acts.
15:31 (IST)
28 MAR 2022
Last EU train out of Russia arrives in Helsinki
Just after 7pm on Sunday, the Allegro express train from St Petersburg pulled into the Finnish capital, marking the closure of the last rail link between Russia and the EU.
https://indianexpress.com/article/world/russia-ukraine-war-live-updates-putin-nato-zelenskyy-biden-lviv-mariupol-kyiv-7838090/
– Op India
NOT satire: Russia gets banned in tree competition, Poland wins ‘European Tree of the Year’ award
Earlier Russian cats were banned from international competitions as well.
Poland won the European Tree of the year competition this year after Russia was disqualified over its invasion of Ukraine. Russian tree is not the first strange thing to get banned from competitions, earlier Russian cats were banned from international competitions as well.
In a largely symbolic effort against the Russian invasion of Ukraine, a group in Brussels disqualified Russia’s candidate, an oak tree planted by novelist Ivan Turgenev 198 years ago from the competition.
https://www.opindia.com/2022/03/poland-wins-european-tree-of-the-year-award-tree-russia-banned/
They are not happy until every single trace of Russian life, culture and history is erased from the collective mind of the borg, sorry western world. This is akin to Pol Pot’s attempt to cleanse society from certain elements some decades ago. Interesting that the enlightened, freedom and peace loving, indispensable and exceptional west has adopted similar tactics. I am impressed we are going full circle, full retard. Guts and glory. Towards the cliff, lemmings.
Es hat verschiedene Aspekte.
a) Wo ich wohne, gibt es viele Russen. Was sollen die von uns denken? Vom Rest der Welt ganz abgesehen.
b) Unsere Russen sind auch Russlanddeutsche, Ukrainer, aus Belarus, Kasachstan. Hier sind sie alle „Russen“. Im „reichen, freien Deutschland“ statt in „Putins Despotie“. Und doch sind sie bei Operation Z fast alle auf der Seite Rußlands. Auch Deutsche, die beide Seiten kennen, sind oft auf der Seite Rußlands. Das spricht nicht für die Sache unseres Regimes.
c) „Jeder hat das Recht, seine Meinung in Wort, Schrift und Bild frei zu äußern und zu verbreiten und sich aus allgemein zugänglichen Quellen ungehindert zu unterrichten.“ Artikel 5, Grundgesetz. Was unser Regime treibt, ist Rechtsnihilismus, Annulierung der Grundrechte, nicht erst seit Z. Es ist viel mehr als das, seit Jahren, und es ist alarmierend.
d) Dieser neue Rassismus, der auf Überlegenheitsdünkel westlicher Ideologien basiert, ist nicht besser als die früheren Varianten von Rassismus, hat aber das Ausmaß von Raserei angenommen.
e) Die EU hat den Zugverkehr nach Rußland eingestellt. Das hatten wir nicht bei Lenin, Stalin, Chruschtschov, Breshnev. Nicht mal bei Hitler, bis zum Ostfeldzug jedenfalls. Das ist vollständig irre. Den Flugverkehr hat die EU auch gesperrt.
Das ist bei weitem nicht alles. Es ist ein Wahn von unvorstellbarem Ausmaß.
Yandex-Übersetzung:
It has different aspects.
a) Where I live, there are a lot of Russians. What should they think of us? Apart from the rest of the world.
b) Our Russians are also Russian Germans, Ukrainians, from Belarus, Kazakhstan. Here they are all “Russians”. In “rich, free Germany” instead of “Putin’s despotism”. And yet, in Operation Z, they are almost all on the side of Russia. Even Germans who know both sides are often on the side of Russia. This does not speak for the cause of our regime.
c) “Everyone has the right to express and disseminate his opinion freely in speech, writing and image and to inform himself freely from generally accessible sources.” Article 5, Grundgesetz, Basic Law. What drives our regime is legal nihilism, cancellation of fundamental rights, not only since Z. It is much more than that, for years, and it is alarming.
d) This new racism, which is based on the supremacy of Western ideologies, is no better than the previous variants of racism, but has assumed the scale of frenzy.
e) The EU has stopped the train service to Russia. We didn’t have that with Lenin, Stalin, Khrushchev, Breshnev. Not even with Hitler, at least until the Ostfeldzug. This is completely insane. The EU has also blocked air traffic.
This is far from all. It is a delusion of unimaginable proportions.
This is, all of it, a sign of the most feeble impotence. If it weren’t for the risk that the dark side of human nature might take over in these countries and cause harm to innocent people of Russian descent, this reaction would be the stuff of tragic comedy.
If ever there was an indirect sign that the Russians are winning big, it is the unprecedented hysteria of western media.
Interesting perspective. I am of the opinion that Moscow appears incompetent as a matter of expediency. It is my opinion that Moscow understands that they are in a war with the Western neo-fascists and is executing a plan that has been in the making for some time. This plan is the destruction of Western fascism and may well lead to global war which Moscow will win.
In the Donbass they are fighting for the Russian world which includes the Ukraine, once people understand this geo-political view then all the the media hype is just useful idiots (Stalin reference) playing into Moscow’s hands.
Moscow has been very clear on the stated aims of the Special Operation. Disarm and de-banderise Ukraine. Mariupol and the Donbass is just the beginning. Why de-banderise Ukraine only? I would suggest that Poland is next, time will tell, but why else did Biden go to Poland?
I think a good analogy for western media in all of this is to think of them as elevator music.
Ever present, annoying, but soon the time spent in its presence ends. It is also important to focus on what is real and what is false, the more you try to address lies, the more of them there are.
Best to ignore lies and liars and let facts, such as winning your objectives, shut them down.
Good idea to ban letter “z”. Let’s ban letters a, i, r, s, u too, as they are used to spell a certain country. Also, let’s ban yoghurt, vodka, colours red and white, but not blue, and let’s also ban the vegetable, or is it fruit, onion, as it reminds of the top shape of orthodox churches. Let’s also ban bears, balalaikas, wooden dolls, kefir, caviar, smetana, kvas, Russian literature, russian music, russian movies…….
Wait….it was just sarcasm on my side. Western world actually went ahead and banned most of the stuff above, so it’s merely a matter of time before they actually butcher the alphabet. Wouldn’t surprise me a bit, the western world is truly unhinged. Or just revealing it’s true, psychopathic nature. Have a good evening.
Thanks for providing clarity on the situation, Saker. Unfortunately if you’re not savvy to these things it’s very easy for the average person to get caught up in the whirlwind of emotions everytime there is a public freakout like this and assume the worst.
Let us hope that the Russian military will achieve their objectives completely and that the people of Ukraine will not have to live under *any* form of Nazi occupation at all post-operation after a deal is reached.
Andrei,
So talks are good in principle, and, therefore, talk, you say.
The Russian talk team is very weak, in words and presentation. But talk, you say.
The Russian control of the messaging is an F, but, talk, you say.
The Ukies control the messaging, but, talk, you say.
What is there to talk about? You didn’t say. You disregarded the content of the talks.
So, we look at the SMO and say, it cannot be about allowing some military to exist.
We look at the SMO and say, it cannot be about allowing some nazification to exist.
So, what the hell are the talks about?
Allowing a war criminal to stay in power in Kiev?
Allowing Ukraine a second life as a Western Neutral? After all, EU membership is not Neutral.
What are they discussing in these very polite talks?
“15 years,” they leak, and then “they can try to take Crimea and Donbass.” This in the talks.
The price laid down so far is significant. Close to 2000 200s and 5000 or so 300s.
How do you talk over those costs?
What could you possibly be talking about when the SMO is about destroying Ukraine as is and preventing it forever from being as is?
Zelensky belongs hanging on the gallows.
The entire government of Kiev belongs in prison with many executed.
Talks should be about surrender. Nothing more. Surrender or we will continue the SMO.
The SMO was in answer to three existential threats. So it has to be a fight to the finish of Ukraine and the fracture of NATO for Russia to remove those threats.
Missiles too close to Russia.
Dirty or regular nuclear warhead for Ukraine.
Biological weapons designed for use against Russians.
All atop the ethnic cleansing and genocide of the population of Donbass.
That requires Total Destruction of Ukraine, its government, its military and the nazification of its population.
Talk about?
No. No talks. Ask for their surrender. Meanwhile, destroy the military, the government and all the nazis.
I think the notion of talks is a dead end.
The other side (US is the other side. Ukraine is a front, a proxy.) wants the destruction of Russia and millions of dead Russians.
What is there to talk about? At least, have the talks with author of the war being waged against Russia.
Talk to the US. Tell the US, the Ukraine is going to disappear, NATO is going to move the missiles, and the war will not stop before its goals are accomplished. Tell them to surrender now. That’s what talks should be about.
Appear weak when you are strong.
At the very least these “talks” shouldn’t be held so frequently. Some say it is so Russia shows itself ready to negotiate, but it doesn’t have to do this every several days. Wait a month or more between these “negotiations” which are just jokes anyway.
Zelensky is now talking about how NATO should intervene in the next conflict. Plus they won’t uphold anything they agree to – at least not in the medium and long term. That is their track record.
“Ukraine demands from Russia an agreement under which NATO countries will come out with us in the next military conflict on its side. Another important clarification following the results of the talks in Istanbul. Behind the veneer of consent to peace, there are insidious plans for preparing for a new war with Russia right now. So, in addition to refusing to recognize Crimea and Donbass as Russian, Kyiv is imposing an agreement on Moscow, according to which NATO countries can enter into a war with us in any next armed conflict (does anyone doubt that it will be?) on the side of Ukraine.”
Russia and Ukraine/ USA can talk about how Ukraine/ USA can save face.
Russia can’t even save its own soldiers and generals, own people.
What is there to talk about? You didn’t say. You disregarded the content of the talks.
Because I am not privy to them.
YMMV of course
Cheers
I take that as you agree with my argument.
Agreed. Drive the stake into the vampires heart. Kill the beast once and for all.
Precisely.
The ONLY reason for any “talk” whatsoever is to fool and confound the enemy as to gain time. If Putin is really contemplating any real negotiations with the nazis/west (which I don’t believe – yet) then he is not prepared to do what must be done to safeguard Russia’s future.
Let’s all focus on one simple fact: This war, invasion, “SMO”, call-what-you-want, which caused an abrupt and irreversible rupture with the west, will cause a massive arms-race and the west *WILL* quickly close the gap to whichever military advantages Russia still has today (like hypersonic missiles). There’s is already credible analysis from before this war estimating this technological catch up by the west to take about 3 years. So the window of opportunity for Russia to take the initiative against NATO is closing – fast.
Russia could literally abort the whole Ukraine thing and recall all soldiers tomorrow – as long as it takes the war directly to the instigators – NATO itself – and stop this proxy war crap. Putin is still playing on the defensive and any attempt of “negotiating with the devil” will seal his and Russia’s future in a not positive manner. I still believe that Ukraine is the first step in what will inevitably be a direct confrontation with NATO very soon, BUT if this doesn’t happen and instead Putin attempt any lame-deal that will only provide short-term stability for him at the expense of Russia’s strategic/existencial future, then things will be made much worse in the future as the west will smell blood and WILL come with full-force in the future, but by then Russia will NO LONG have any advantage as it has today, and will have, yet again, to play in the defensive but in far worst position than today.
Tic-tac.
the russians are polite. the forms must be obeyed and now that the som is well underway i doubt anything happens short of unconditional surrender to stop it until it reaches its goal.
i see nothing at this point to even suggest the russian side cares one way or the other about PR or who and how the narrative is shaped in public meda space. things are way past that so all the talk about negotiations is irrelevant until the end goal has been reached.
anyone getting caught up in the talks is being fooled into thinking the russian side is doing anything other than the forms must be obeyed.
the west has lived in a world of bullshit so long they have come to believe that saying it is real is the same thing as actually being real. the kremlin no longer bothers with such delusions.
Talks, especially since Russian objectives are largely fulfilled and the caravan moves on, is mainly for the protocol and they’re just talks. That’s very Russian. Nothing has come out of these talks, the Nazi’s are even shooting their own negotiators dead and they’re all simple thugs performing one humiliating self goal after another. Abramovic was ukie request wasn’t it? Let them have it. He’s not going to change anything.
So why not, let the show go on while real progress is being made on the battle field.
Right on Larchmonter445, it could not be more transparent than what you have stated. Finish the mission.
I concur ‘Tell them to surrender now. That’s what talks should be about.’
Russia has the momentum and has incurred high cost in lives and assets. To again freeze the Ukraine conflict (Russia hasn’t said this at all. This is a perspective not a fact. Mod.) without a complete victory, will damage Russia’s credibility as a multipolar power. Hopefully, Russia will be resolute in achieving higher goals and ending its sanctions. The Financial Empire has encircled Russia with sanctions to damage its economy.
Russia’s key battle against the Financial Empire happens on April 1st: Will G7 buy gas in RUBLES or Russia will stop the gas supply if not paid in Rubles?
One possibility in the negotiation announcements is also to feel out the US, since it stopped talking to Russia on 2/15. We all know that it is the US making decisions. After the presentation of the Ukrainian side’s position which was misinterpreted as the basis of an agreement, western leaders couldn’t keep their mouths shut. Johnson said the sanctions would remain, Blinken said the negotiations don’t matter (effectively) and so did Biden. Now Russia knows – though it realistically could predict this before – that the negotiations are just for show.
I still agree that the public statements from the Russian side were painfully inept and counterproductive. But the good faith negotiating and being open is important information war behavior for the non-aligned world to see. Even if Russia had no intention of doing anything but setting up defensive positions outside Kiev for the time being, presenting it as they did plays well in the rest of the world.
“Now Russia knows – though it realistically could predict this before – that the negotiations are just for show.
I still agree that the public statements from the Russian side were painfully inept and counterproductive. But the good faith negotiating and being open is important information war behavior for the non-aligned world to see.”
Even so, Russia should not be doing them so frequently. They tend to lead to nothing but aggravation and goading towards the Russian side and a source of PR. Russia should wait closer to a month, at least, between these joke “negotiations”.
Many observers and analysts seem to be missing the obvious – the Russians are not fighting “Gulf War 3”, nor “Cold War 2”. We should therefore look beyond coloums of tanks and ground occupied.
As Putin is a Judo master, let us consider this war as a Judo match.
In Judo does it matter how hard you can punch?, or how high and fast you can kick?, or how many blows to the head you can take before being knocked out?
No, it is a different method of fighting – it relies on capturing the oponents momentum and redirecting it against them, effectively causing the oponents own weight to be used against them.
This is what the Russians are doing with the collective “West”.
Against an oponent such as Russia the real power of the west comes not from their tanks and planes but from thier economic might.
At every turn the Russians are using the Wests economic power and momentum against them. Every time they have trown a punch or tried a high kick they have had thier collective weight used against them and they have been thrown to the ground.
If you watch the West and thier “sanctions from hell” throwing attacks at Russia and then getting flipped over and thrown to the ground (whilst complaining it was not a fair move or didnt follow the rules) it is hillarious.
The economic warfare of this really should be viewed as a Judo match.
In terms of the military aspect, to anyone concentrating on the macro (and I do not diminish the sacrifices made on the micro level by individual soldiers and civillians) will see that Russia has already dominated the entire battlespace – to the point that the Worlds most powerful military machine – NATO – fears direct entry into this battlespace.
There is a much bigger “game” being played in Ukraine than military occupation – this is a war to decide who controls the much mentioned “New World Order” – the West and thier “Make the rules up” based order, or the East and the “International Law” based order. Ukraine is literally and metaphorically caught in the middle of a struggle between great powers, with the World order being the prize, not a castle, not a kingdom, not a country, but the runnng and control of the entire planet.
The main battle is being fought in the economic realm (the most important as all wars are bankers wars), with the second tier being faught in the information space, the third tier fought in the political, and finally the fifth tier being fought the old fashioned way on the battle field.
From my analysis, Russia is winning in all spaces but the information sphere – but they are learning and adapting fast and victory in this space will come soon.
The Anglo-Americans will not go quietly however, and they will destroy thier own economies, thier own peoples, and as many other nations economies and peoples as they fight to retain control of as much as they can before thier enevitable defeat. This is my greatest concern – that they will rather see everything burned down before they concede defeat. In fact I believe they will never concede defeat, they will have to be crushed economically, militarily, and politically to make them stop, and that at some point will involve some form of nuclear exchange.
“…the real power of the west comes not from their tanks and planes but from thier economic might.”
Their power also roots in their willingness to cast aside integrity.
Earthquake; An excellent and intelligent overview. You are describing what I call Judo mastery, in the form of a an internationally coordinated revolutionary form of insurgent world changing political-economy. Judo, to rupture a world and in its place create a new global world order.
It does not escape my notice that this operation ties together three great civilizations that have each been through great socialist anti capitalist anti imperialist revolutionary struggles.
Putin goes to China and the Iranians go to China. This whole operation suggests to me that there is some very heavyweight yet subtle Chinese Communist intelligence sitting quietly in the background inspiring and coordinating this whole global movement, of which the Russian military is but one visible component.
As always China is more subtle and far cleverer than Westerners know how to recognize. It is so interesting to me that through all this storm and fury China is just sitting quietly back like the cat that swallowed the canary.
And saying; “who me?” I am not a part of this. Now please tell me that this is not a global version of the subtlety Mao Ze Dong employed in China 70 years ago.
Re your:
The irony is delicious: Brzezinski: The Ukraine crisis or the revival of the Grand Chessboard’s geopolitics: Euro-Atlantic response to Russia’s assault
The Ukraine is the literally and figuratively–metaphorically–the battleground on which the existential issue of the world’s future is being fought.
The leader in the fight is Russia. So Brzezinski is “right:” The Ukraine is a “key Eurasian geopolitical pivot(s).” The “special operation” is the information war per se.
How ironic, eh?!
The last paragraph reminds one of the horrendously ugly concept of “scorched earth”. Imagine how that concept would sound to the many who worship Mother Earth, the bestower of life. It is tragic that “scorched economies” will very likely be an unintended consequence of what the foolish, distracted west is doing — and that will include economies of the west. In fact, in terms of relative hits taken, economies of the west will rank higher. Give an unstable teenager a machine gun … !!!
“storm in a glass of water” is a Dutch expression as well.
Other than that — thank you for a very astute and informative article.
The English version is “tempest in a teapot” or “storm in a teacup”. Obviously from the English of the Barbarians (British).
The “negotiations” are a joke and Russia is foolish to agree to them so frequently. Zelensky is talking about how NATO will intervene in the “next” war. And you know the Ukrainian government will not honor any agreements in the first place. Russia needs to further destroy the evil the west has built up in Ukraine.
https://t.me/s/voenkorKotenok
Ukraine demands from Russia an agreement under which NATO countries will come out with us in the next military conflict on its side.
Another important clarification following the results of the talks in Istanbul. Behind the veneer of consent to peace, there are insidious plans for preparing for a new war with Russia right now. So, in addition to refusing to recognize Crimea and Donbass as Russian, Kyiv is imposing an agreement on Moscow, according to which NATO countries can enter into a war with us in any next armed conflict (does anyone doubt that it will be?) on the side of Ukraine.
And here, even before the collapse of the Russian Federation, it will be within easy reach, apparently, they think in Zelensky’s office.
The “negotiations” are a joke and Russia is foolish to agree to them so frequently.
You need to apply to the position of Foreign Minister.
If only you were there, we would be swimming in milk and honey
thank for for such truly smart people!
Dang, Andrei, I feel called out! lol.
I was one of those types that after hearing what the Russian MoD said regarding the pull back of Russian forces around Kiev my mind immediately went to: “was the mainstream right? Why would Russia pull back after gaining so much momentum?”
After reading your article and Nightvision’s sitrep I have much relief and a clear picture regarding these recent statements by Russia.
I feel ashamed for being so easily fooled and I thank you for clarifying the situation for me!
I feel ashamed for being so easily fooled
Don’t.
You were mislead until you came across a different info.
Look at the number of comments which come from folks who, presumably, read the same article and it had ZERO effect on them.
They all are way, waaaaay smarter than Putin and Lavrov
and they would fix it all in a few days, if given a chance.
It’s just SO UNFAIR that nobody cares about what they think they think
and that their doom and gloom mantras have been proven wrong for years.
Remember
They are the ones who said that “Putin will sellout the LDNR to the Nazis”.
Now, I suppose, they stuck their tongues up their rear ends and rather forget about such “predictions”.
So, please don’t feel bad: people like you motivate me to write and continue on
(the nay sayers always make me feel like I am wasting my time)
So, thank you!
Maybe the Kremlin should put a military general in charge of the Ukraine theater of operations and give him full authority to negotiate the surrender of the Ukrainian government, impose a new constitution and act as military governor. This is grossly how MacArthur managed the end of WW II with Japan. He also printed new school books.
MacArthur tried to keep the State Department out of the process if I understand correctly. A military person would have a more direct and practical approach to end the war than career diplomats would.
In political, geopolitical, military, social and economic terms, Russia is a sleeping giant. Put them in the safe hands of Goldman Sachs and Russia has a GDP in 6 months 3 times existing. Russians will enjoy the Party for 20-30 years and upon sobering up will find herself paying 75% of its revenue from Energy Sales in Interest Payments every month for a century.
America is like an ageing hooker who’s been earning a good income from her heyday, but no more painting/papering over the cracks is possible to hide her sagging fortunes. The hooker to her good sense stuck away a good proportion of her hard-earned, a nest-egg, unlike America who’ve sold everything that hasn’t been nailed down. The 8000 tonnes of gold-plated tungsten in Fort Knox ain’t fool no one.
There’s overwhelming developing country support to work with Russia. People see an opportunity to rid themselves of the one-way, one-benefit western relations. They will shape their Governments accordingly. When countries see neighbours enjoying the fruits of a relationship with China, Russia and Iran, the rush to exit IMF Anus Horribilis.
Thank you.
I do greatly appreciate these.
Take care of yourself, all the parts, mind, body and soul. :)
A few random thoughts.
1) Sending a loud-mouthed imbecile as your negotiator may not be a ‘mistake’. Putin may have laughed and said, “I know, we’ll make them spend hour after hour in the room with …..”. It would not surprise me if it was meant as a sign of disrespect. It could be handy in a case where your course is set and you don’t give the negotiators the authority to arrange the seats on their own. Zelensky wants negotiations for show, who better to send?
2) I noticed that they apparently shot the helicopter down before it could pick up the Nazi under-fuhrers from Mariopol. Do they prefer to try to capture them alive than to watch burning wreckage tumble to the ground? The latter didn’t seem like a bad way to make a couple of Good Nazis. But, I can understand wanting to capture them alive.
3). There could be an advantage to Putin’s techniques within Russia. Let the 6th-columnist make fools of themselves publicly and loudly. When Putin’s holding a peaceful, televised victory celebration at Donetz Airport, he won’t care and they’ll look like idiots. They don’t seem to be much of a threat today to Putin and his 80% approval ratings, so perhaps this is a strategy to take a small risk and possibly rid himself of a nuisance for good? And I seem to recall a previous Russian ex-pat who had a saying about giving people enough rope to hang themselves.
4) If any Russians think that a deal with the Nazis will mean the sanctions are lifted, then think again. The Americans don’t do that. Ask the Iranians. At this point, it appears that getting those sanctions into place was likely the reason behind this for the Americans. It is Economic War. The Iranians even got a UNSC resolution on their deal, and still the Americans reneged, first during Biden/Obama when they got very legalistic and claimed that most sanctions were not precisely related to nukes so they had to remain. Even now in Vienna, the Iranians are still trying to get those sanctions lifted and the Americans keep saying no.
O presidente Putin não quer levantar sua bunda braca da cadeira e trabalhar sério. A verdade é que ele morre de amor pelo Ocidente e não quer irritar os Estados Unidos e seus vassalos. Este nó que é a guerra da Ucrânia só está acontecendo porque ele não sabe agir.
I took the time to translate your crap & found it distasteful. I hope others noticed .
This information about looming peace is a psychological operation in support of the rouble ultimatum and nothing more. The news cycle from Thursday-Monday will be dominated by “Russian blackmail” of Europe as
LNG sales are suspended, then on Monday or Tuesday of next week Russia will respond. Keep your eye on the long game, people.
I agree with Turley. On March 24 Rosaviatsiya extended a ban for airlines operating flights to and out of 11 airports: Anapa (AAQ), Belgorod (EGO), Bryansk (BZK), Voronezh (VOZ), Gelendzhik (GDZ), Krasnodar (KRR), Kursk (URS), Lipetsk (LPK), Rostov-on-Don (RVI), Simferopol (SIP) and Elista (ESL). Originally the airports listed were to remain closed until April 1…
we keep our eyes already since one month on the long game. very long game with lots of kinder überraschung
Russia is fighting an all-aspect war. Not against Ukraine, but against the US. Putin has basically said so himself, early on in the intervention.
Understandably, we are primarily focused on the kinetic aspect of the conflict, and this is playing out on the battlefields in the Ukraine. While what is happening there is of course important, it is but one front in a much, much bigger war that is already being fought. The main current battlefield against the US is not in the Ukraine however. I fact, it isn’t even kinetic (as in armies against armies).
Ideally, from Russia’s perspective, it never will be. The best outcome for Russia will be if they defeat the US decisively without any military engagement with them (or with the rest of NATO) whatsoever. The main battlefield of this war is financial/economical where the west is now extremely vulnerable.
I believe that everything else, including the pace of operations in Ukraine and the appearance of flip-flopping in these negotiations, is determined by how it serves this greater, financial, war against the US. Russia needs time to defeat the US here, and it is buying it in the Ukraine.
The war and the west’s near-hysterical reaction to it forces the west to take action against Russia. They only way they can, is by issuing economic and financial sanctions. They believe they can bring Russia on its knees that way because they actually believe that Russia’s economy is the size of Italy/Spain/Texas (take your pick). They sincerely believe that Russia needs to sell its commodities to the west to keep its economy afloat.
They couldn’t be more wrong.
Russia doesn’t need anything from the west that it can’t replace itself or get from one of its many friends and allies. The west however, and especially Europe, desperately needs its commodities (gas, oil, wheat, fertilizers, rare metals, and many others). Without those, its economies, fragile as they already are, will collapse.
So how is Russia fighting that economic and financial war?
Firstly, they’re applying the general wisdom of ‘not interrupting your adversary when they are digging themselves into a hole’. I am of course referring to the economic sanctions. They were supposed to bring Russia to its knees. Today, the ruble ended at R85 to $1. It’s almost back to the level it was before the intervention. And we haven’t even reached the deadline (march 31st) of the ‘gas for rubles’ trade ultimatum.
It is commonly believed that gas is just the first of the commodities this will apply to (Peskov has all but confirmed this with his remarks). If (or when) that happens, the ruble will become a de-facto reserve currency, backed by commodities.
But that’s not all. They also declared that friendly nations can now pay with bitcoin. Bam! Another blow to the (petro)dollar and the euro. And a big one too.
But the killer blow may well turn out to be another one. The Russian Central Bank has declared it will be buying gold at a fixed rate of R5000 per 1 gram up until June 30th.
That they will be buying is in itself is a big blow to the west. Part of their plan has been to force Russia to sell (instead of buy) gold to compensate for their ‘missed’ income due to the sanctions. This statement from the Central Bank signals that the west’s strongest financial weapon, which they employed right from the start, has completely misfired. In fact, it has turned out to be a dud.
But by fixing the rate at which they will buy, they are disrupting the speculative (and massively manipulated) commodities market, especially that of gold certificates (not to be confused with physical gold). Tom Luongo explains it much better than I ever could:
https://tomluongo.me/2022/03/28/got-gold-rubles-russia-just-broke-the-back-of-the-west/
This will not happen overnight though. As I said, it will take time. As long as the conflict in Ukraine continues, the west is forced to take economic and financial action against Russia (as a result of their own rhetoric and the frenzy they whipped their own people into). And these work counterproductive. As long as they do, they keep digging that hole they’re already in, deeper and deeper.
Russia doesn’t need (some degree of) economic reconciliation with the west, but the west does! But they can’t get it while the Ukraine conflict continues, because of their own rhetoric! And the longer it goes on, the worse the economic situation gets for the west and the more it shifts into Russia’s favor (and China’s too btw, and pretty much for most of Zone B).
I believe that everything else that is happening and that Russia is doing (or not doing) serves this greater purpose, of bringing the west’s financial dominance of the world and especially the world’s trade to an end. If that happens, the US, and perhaps some other western countries too, can look forward to experiencing similar conditions as Russia did in the 90s.
As the Rouble gets stronger and stronger the equivalent value of gold will soon rise above the Wests price and Gold would then start flowing strongly towards Russia as they will then be offering the best price per gram in the world and the world will need Roubles to buy Russian goods so it is a double benefit for Russia, more and more gold and a strengthening currency which becomes self reinforcing.
Mientras el sr.Lavrov siga siendo canciller hay que temerse lo peor de cualquier negociación que se ponga en sus manos.
Another spammer: Again read the translation:
“As long as Mr. Lavrov remains foreign minister, the worst must be feared from any negotiations that are put into his hands.”
Obviously a troll – as Lavrov is acknowledged as being the very best in the business.
LOL. Why negotiate?
Well, if you don’t negotiate, you have to fight in cities, install your own puppet government and pay for reconstruction while fighting an insurgency.
Negotiate and you can simply leave and let others (US, EU) pay the bill. While trying to get back all those weapons they freely distributed to anyone that asked.
Lets hope that the bill is not in rubles :P
The ukronazis and the west will take advantage of every second and every inch of ukro territory to their war against Russia. And now they are burning in hate.
mostly, they are just burning…
haha – good comment Saker – I hope yer right
Like small children who, to punish the big ones, take full advantage of the means they have:
– Op India
NOT satire: Russia gets banned in tree competition, Poland wins ‘European Tree of the Year’ award
Earlier Russian cats were banned from international competitions as well.
Poland won the European Tree of the year competition this year after Russia was disqualified over its invasion of Ukraine. Russian tree is not the first strange thing to get banned from competitions, earlier Russian cats were banned from international competitions as well.
In a largely symbolic effort against the Russian invasion of Ukraine, a group in Brussels disqualified Russia’s candidate, an oak tree planted by novelist Ivan Turgenev 198 years ago from the competition.
https://www.opindia.com/2022/03/poland-wins-european-tree-of-the-year-award-tree-russia-banned/
“But if that is really so, they the Russians have to 1) admit it to themselves and to the Russian people and 2) completely rebuilt the public information strategy and hire real professionals to execute it.”
It would be a lot better for them if they hired a bunch of the bloggers on the pro-Russian Telegram channels. They seem to be a much better job for Russia. In particular I’d suggest Colonel Cassad as one of them to hire.
I really hope you are right in your post. I’m one of those that understand what you mean about the diplomats undoing the military’s hard work. And my heart almost stops every time I hear they are going to another negotiation with the Kiev nazis.I’d really like to see the two you mentioned lead the Russian team there as. And while it mean cause heart failure among the Ukrainian delegates (maybe a good thing),I wouldn’t mind seeing Kadyrov go along too. He might stiffen a few spines among the Russian delegates.
Dear fellow russian readers.
I have to admit : in 2014, I standED for Ukraine.
Why ? Because I believed the ukro propaganda which said you were, Russian people, a bunch of neobolchevik communist.
when this war started, I tried to understand the Russian POV (because I thought it would be crazy for my country, France, to risk a nuclear war for a land, Ukraine, which have nothing in common, nor interest, with us.
Then, I started to read about the nazi politics against slavic peope.
You’ll probably says : “it’s well know, you stupid”. Yes, yes… But in western Europe, “antifa” politics had become such crazy that, by reaction, I had became more sympathetic to german WW2 side.
But I prefer honesty to ideology, and my dream of fraternal union of european white nations against bolchevism was a lie, and nazism was just a crazy bloody racist german politics, which was made only in the interest of Greater Germany, and not for all european people from west to east, so not for russian people opressed by those communists.
It’s certainly ridiculous, but it was sad for me… I can’t be easy with the idea than WW2 was bad side (nazis) vs another bad side (west liberals and east communists).
Whatever, and even if we are a minority in France, I want you to know than millions of french people stand with Putin army and russian people. This is a crusade, and my heart is broken to know my country is on the bad side. Hope that will change, but propaganda is so strong…
Communism and the Bolsheviks were started in or heavily supported by the west as a weapon against Russia. The communist propagandists and criminals, such as Trotsky and Lenin, were harbored in western countries (Switzerland, Germany, etc.) before the Russian Revolution and western countries (Germany, U.S., Britain) financed them and helped set up their newspapers and writings. The Bolsheviks targeted Russians and their church.
“My heart is broken to know my country is on the bad side”
Not your country, only your government of clowns.
https://en.news-front.info/2022/03/27/most-french-people-trust-russias-words-about-the-reasons-for-the-special-operation-in-ukraine/
Ban the letter Z. It would be funny if it weren’t tragic.
I remember the radical recommendations for reforming German spelling in the ’70s. Among other proposals, z was to be replaced by ts.
They may get their wish after all these years. Then you can read your Tseitung sitting in your Tsimmer.
The news out of Turkey was puzzling. That’s all I have to really say about it. I cannot think that Russia endured all the expense and cost in terms of their military and soldier’s live to settle for anything less than total surrender from the Ukrainian government. That said, I always prefer peace over war. But the key here is does what has been put on the table ensure peace? Little has been said about how Russia plans to verify, for example, the statement that no foreign soldiers will be permitted on Ukrainian soil. Until these are made clear, I’m highly skeptical of the statements about the negotiation.
I also, like Saker, am puzzled by the statements related to a pullback around Kiev and Chernigov. It seems that the purpose of the siege of the cities was to cut off reinforcements to the Donbass. I’m not a military expert, not even an armchair one, but if that was the purpose, it seems its a bit early on in the negotiation process to reduce Russia’s footprint around these cities.
However, I am happy to see that the negotiations appear to be heading to a potential agreement and the war could be brought to an early conclusion. I also look forward to seeing what happens when the spigots are turned off on Russian gas – April 1 is just three days away.
Perhaps, just throwing this out there, the oligarchs are getting restless? Could the Kremlin delegates possibly want to appear to be humble? I don’t know. I’ve been quite disturbed myself. As far as Abramovich..I agree…WTH? They love to pull out “celebrities”. I’m at a loss.
I’ve just been doing the wait and see thing. The Germans have a saying which basically translates to ” Don’t eat the food when it’s too hot. Let it cool first.”
Let’s see what happens. I do hate to hear the Russian people are concerned. The Federation better not screw this up.
This gesture of good will form Russia is already seen in The West as weakness.
After few hours, USA and UK are setting new “conditions” for removal of sanctions.
It is not nice to give lectures to others, considering the pain of families whose dearest would die and suffer, but Russia has to fight or die.
Let’ face it. The victory of Russia is close and Ukrainians & co knows it well. The worst can happen now (for Russia and for the rest of the insane world) is to have a false flag event which will justify intervention of third parties and, practically, WWWIII.
And where is the most susceptible to have such a false flag event? Obviously in a surrounded city which “cannot be concurred” with classic means and necessary to use some chemical out of law weapons. Both Kyiv and Chernigov are perfect for a staged drama.
And today ……. booooooom! The entire world find out in prime-time that Russia is not going further in those two cities and, consequently, is a non-sense to even consider possible a chemical attack from its side. Brilliant! Absolutely brilliant.
A false flag is only effective if there is intent to act on it and it is needed to justify the otherwise unjustifiable. NATO could have justified intervention to its brainwashed citizenry weeks ago. Russia “invaded” after all.
It is clear that NATO is not ready to intervene now or in the near future, especially after seeing what the Russians have put on display.
@ Saker
PS: and if you wonder what the Nazi crazies are up to, here is a good one: they want to ban the letter “Z”. This tells you that the Ukies MUST be winning, right? If they are down to fighting letters of the alphabet, the war must be going so well for them that I can’t even put it in words, right? :-)
———————————–
Not in words that have the letter “Z” at least, no. :-)
Spot on, again, Saker.
Thanks for the clarification, and the naming of the idiots in that delegation. First of all, they made it sound as if it was a done deal, Russia was retreating from Kiev and whatever else; second, it appeared as if Putin was begging to meet that clown Zec, a prisoner of the CIA/MI6/Mossad et al, who has no independence whatsoever, none, to negotiate anything at all.
————————————
“…Frankly, I would give the Russian PR/PSYOP/Information operations people a “F” for totally mismanaging the CRUCIAL aspect of public communications, especially during a war…”
————————————-
Agree with you 100%. Thanks.
Lone Wolf
PS: On another note, this is my last post before I retreat from the world for Ramadan. You will all be in my prayers, inshallah the conditions will be better in a month or so when I return.
Salaam to all.
I don’t know what the correct wish is for you Lone Wolf, so all I can say is blessings and I hope this Ramadan offers everything that you hope for it to be.
@ Amarynth
Thanks!!
Ramadan is for all of us, for the entire planet.
With almost 2 billion people praying at one time or another, there is no way it doesn’t have an effect on everyone, whether they perceive it or not.
May the blessings of our prayers fall upon you, dear Amarynth.
Lone Wolf
PS: BTW, I left a post for you back in the “SitRep: Russia – Ukraine Negotiations” thread.
Let me go and check then. It was a very fast day today :-)
Thank you for observing Ramadan, Lone Wolf. Following Ramadan is not only a sacrifice that purifies the one who follows it. The sacrifice has a ripple effect on the rest of the world. I hope that many, many muslims will observe Ramadan this year, including many who haven’t tried it yet.
I am not a muslim, I follow another faith, but I regularly do dry fasts, even extended. Combined with prayer and meditation, it really changes you!
Best wishes
(By the way, does anybody know if the Chechen warriors observe Ramadan?)
Great move to add Nightvision’s sitreps to the front page. I have been following this commenter for some time and find him both astute in judgements and precise in assessing military objectives and hardware. not many can do that and clearly, following the Russian language sites is a huge assets not many of us can access.
Today’s sitrep is chok-full of useful information I did not see combined in one place elsewhere. highlighting the failure of the much touted Javlins and the US military’s turning away from the F-22 s, especially important. What that shows is, that after stress testing in real battle situations, many of the US weapons, be they anti-tank, or anti-aircraft, or even EW’s and planes (all of which were tested to one extent or another) were shown to be inferior to what the Russians had, big time. Even those man-pads performed relatively poorly, to judge by how few aviation casualties there were on the Russian side.
Above and beyond all, I’d say the Russian humint capabilities have no par, obviously not on the ukie side but definitely not ion the US/Nato side. This is a classic example of the enemy 9the combined west) being taken by its own hubris. They simply do not understand the modern Russian military tactics, which is something martyanov keeps pointing out. As for strategy or Russian mind frame – that appears to be alien territory for our not-so-capble but oh-so-diverse military minds.
many other useful points to make regarding the sitrep and i’ll make them under that column. I do however urge one and all to go and read what a military “feint” is and appreciate just how well it’s been executed so far. Now the Russians can present the planned redirection from kiev as a “concession” when really that was always the plan. lets ukraine have some minimal modicum of face saving too, which then gets a space for more ground operations as well as downstream successes on the diplomatic front.
BTW, I think sending the ‘B’ team to the negotiations is part of the ploy. No need yet to tax the A team and lavrov is busy on other fronts, right?
As an American, it looks to me like Russia’s territorial and political gains in this war are very impressive, even if they are less than what people in Russia expected.
In America and the West, whatever the outcome, it will be spun as a great victory for the West. But the reality on the ground will say otherwise. And there will likely no longer be a sole alive who won’t know that NATO will have promised not to expand into Ukraine. That is a major accomplishment.
Overall, I’d say getting the West to agree to give Russia the Donbas and Crimea and the connection between the two is nothing to sneeze at. And considering that a western victory is laughable.
Shocking! Reduce military activities??? I hope this is a Russian ploy to dupe the Ukronazis!
Russia needs to not stop the SMO and certainly not stop until all tasks are accomplished. Then when peace has broken out in the Ukraine, annex the entire territory, giving the Donbas the option of remaining separate if desired. Any surviving Nazis go to war tribunal. All war criminals get tried, too. Then Russia of course maintains the peace and keeps the West out of its territory while removing the NATO threats on its borders.
There can be no peace treaty between Russia and the Ukraine. Ukraine needs to cease existing. Zelensky needs to hang with his Nazi buddies.
Patrick
In my view we should also sanction Y because for being Z-adjacent. X also for good measure – can’t be too careful!
I think your suggestion “sanction X also for good measure” is somewhat mysogynist and could trigger feminist groups; banning ‘Y’ should be acceptable.
It’s been a month or so now, and what can we see?
There is no longer a Ukrainian air force.
There is no longer a Ukrainian navy.
There is no longer a unified military command structure within Ukraine.
There are no longer intact fuel and ammunition depots within Ukraine.
The certified Nazis in Mariupol have been annihilated.
The Ukrainian army in Donbass is surrounded and no longer getting any reinforcements, whether food, fuel or war material.
The Yankee bio-labs are being secured by the Russian forces.
There has not been widespread destruction of Ukrainian civil infrastructure.
There has not been indiscriminate loss of civilian life.
World opinion is largely supportive of Russia.
The whole gold/ruble dynamic is coming into play, as is the new system of global exchange being created across the Eurasian landmass with buy-ins from most of Zone B.
What part of this does not speak of deep thought and prior planning?
Have I missed anything? Please feel free to show me where I am wrong.
Drastically cut military activity around Kiev and Chernigov? What does that mean exactly? Has anybody who would know for certain explained?
It seems many Russians want it to mean drastically cutting Kiev’s military and ending the Ukrainian state as if lancing a boil. Fair enough too. We may not know for quite some time what Russia really plans to do. They will want to keep the West guessing, so any explanation intended for calming Russia down will be vague but reassuring.
The only quote from the Russian diplomats that I see is them saying they will reduce activity on the approaches to those cities by several times, but they do not elaborate. Has anybody seen them say they will withdraw their lines, i.e., relinquish the territory they now control? I have not. I would be surprised if they do, but this entire situation has been full of surprises.
I think it may be a feint, because I have read about forces already being withdrawn from those fronts, i.e., thinning out the lines and going on the defensive. If the Ukrainians see an apparent weakening of Russian forces around Kiev, I expect they may not be able to resist the urge to attack and attempt to defeat the Russian forces that remain, especially if it is the brain dead Ukro-Nazis who actually call the shots in the country (the never can win a war brain dead and full of hot air Americans too).
Russia has been building up massive forces to enter from the north in Belarus and near Belgorod, so the spin in media that Russia is a spent force is obviously false. If Ukraine tries to roll back the Russians around Kiev Russia can simply move in hard and point to how Ukraine initiated the new phase of combat.
It could also be to reposition forces ready for phase two. I really doubt phase two means Minsk III.
Russia began with less than 200K troops plus decisive force multipliers to do the things Russia stated it set out to do. It does not seem enough to me, because they were outnumbered at least by 2:1 by the Ukrainians. Russia said it wanted to demilitarize and de-nazify Ukraine, while also explaining that the liberation of Donbas required moving into regions far beyond Donbas (to deny supply to that front etc). Russia surely would need far more troops to achieve those goals by force.
Why try to do all that with such a small force? My guess is it is to regulate the rate of escalation with the West and the level of risk. If Russia had initiated the offensives using a force of 750k or more like it is more than capable of doing, the hysteria in the West would have been even more rampant. The hordes from the east are coming etc. It could have tipped the scales towards direct NATO intervention, e.g., no fly zone etc. Escalation into war with NATO would be one of their primary considerations, because all modelling of such as war sees nukes used quite quickly (in a full scale war you must destroy the enemy’s greatest threats to yourself, which in a Russia vs NATO war is the nukes — a task that the planners think requires the use of nuclear weapons).
Another option for explaining the small force could be about simply doing the minimum required for placing Ukraine in a position of having to accept Russia’s demands. This option keeps much of Ukraine intact and requires less force forcing a complete surrender. Plausible?
I do get the impression that Russia doesn’t really mind making the West think it’s going in half-cocked and not knowing what the heck it’s doing.
And as for “horrible” Russian info operations… the U.S. President’s scandal-ridden son has been all over the news here in the last few weeks, and some of what’s being talked about is due to evidence provided by Russia.
I agree with the points you have outlined. There is simply not enough troops in the field for Russia to accomplish its goals. I am glad to see the build up Kursk/Belgorod but am wondering when they will be deployed. Ukraine has put anywhere from 500,000 to 600,000 under arms. The LPR/DNR can’t do it on their own in the Donbas. For about a week now there has been little to no progress.
What does the partial withdrawal around Kiev mean? Hard to know, but who ever heard of announcing your military plans publicly? The small amounts they have withdrawn wouldn’t be enough to make much of difference in the Donbas in any event. I guess we wait for events to unfold.
You know so much of this campaign reminds me of the Ukrainian Civil War 2014-2015 where Russia would only commit enough force to let Kiev know it was never going to win. Did anyone follow this conflict closely? Doesn’t if feel like a synchronistic event like it is being replayed all over again albeit on a larger scale?
I don’t buy the argument that Russia risks western condemnation if it goes all in. I mean short of going to war which quickly becomes nuclear, what more could they possibly do?
卍elensky criminalizes use of Z and V
Russia demands that the Latin alphabet recognize the independence of the letters Z and V. It is assumed that after a Popular Referendum the letters would join the Cyrillic alphabet.
Meanwhile, facts on paper have overtaken the developments on the ground. Z and V have already started to be integrated into the Cyrillic alphabet, and appear in words like Zаписки, Vоенкор and VоZмеZдие.
The use of Z and V in Latin text has already been banned and criminalized. As compensation for the lost letters, the Latin alphabet may demand that Kanji turn over the characters 卍 and 卐.
V used to be in the Russian alphabet during Imperial times… it was called “izhitsa”, and the Russian analog of the Greek upsilon.
This blog is a highlight of my time on computer. Thank you for it. And thank you to Nightvision as well.
My view of what is happening in Russia/Ukraine mirrors both of yours.
My prediction about how this will go relates to the US/Nato, though. Not about the War itself. I’ll leave that to you all on the ground or with military know how.
It is my strong belief that the USA needs to find a way to declare that it has won. Yes, even as the USA has lost every war it has been in for decades, what has happened to some extent is that defeat comes after public interest in the War in question has dwindled into nothing.
To that end, the NYC newspapers have been focusing less and less on the War than they had been. That is sign # 1. Yesterday, the NY Daily news had no mention of conflict in Russia and Ukraine other than a cartoon which cited the conflict as a joke that had something to do with US’s southern border problems. (I’ll bring that here if I can)
The NY Times ceased publishing maps of the War which were useful on March 3, resorting to crude confusing sketches and today the Times provided an actual map highlighting what the Times called “Ukrainian Army is Pushing Back” with battle sites shown.
This tells me something is up. If people are interested, I will document the NYC view regularly.
All of my family came from Russia generations ago. Even though the cities and countries we came from are no longer part of Russia on any map. Warsaw, Kiev, Latvia.
The Russian newspapers spread across my grandmothers kitchen table had me trying to decipher what they said as if it were a code. Which has been a real help reading the maps provided here.
Mid term election campaigning kicks off soon in the USA. Crazy season. I lived there for two years and also in Canada. The US population lives in an echo chamber bubble where the world hardly exists beyond US borders.
On cable news in the USA there is almost no news about other countries, unlike what I grew up with in the UK and NZ where the TV news usually has a world news segment. When elections are on in the USA there is nothing but election spin, or news that can be reported in a way to gain political advantage. The war and therefore overseas news might actually get a look in this time though, but only in a partisan political way. That will result in two diverged and mutually hostile narratives on Ukraine, just like every other issue they fight over endlessly getting nowhere.
However, my bet is that the war will get sidelined and they will get back to fighting over the same old political tropes in their dysfunctional domestic politics, while signalling their political tribal loyalties on social media etc. I hope so. The less the USA pays attention to the rest of the world the better (although the spooks and NGOs et cetera are always focused on overseas).
That is partly what I was getting at.
Interest in Russia is already being overtaken by gossip and petty partisan political bickering. as you said, Elections!
Additionally, If Ukraine were actually winning in this conflict, the news would be splashed over every front page in America.
The USA will never concede publicly that the side they are backing with all of our tax dollars is losing badly and that we will leave all that military hardware in the field as we withdraw from wherever we are. That is what we did in Afghanistan after a decade long fight.
Either way, The cost of living is going to keep going up in North America and Europe. Here in NZ too. My groceries are now about 10% more expensive on average lately. Covid affecting supply chains and now this, plus I suspect there is price gouging going on. As usual it is ordinary people who pay.
What amazed me about my time in the USA is how perfectly divided and ruled so much of the population is. All the wedge issues they constantly fight over while the billionaires who probably do not care much about wedge issues control political outcomes in a way that allows them to get even richer.
If you support one side you believe this and if you support the other you believe that. They are like two conflicting sets of canned positions that supporters of each side adhere to like it is gospel. NZ is not like that. People are not so politically charged and you can say and believe whatever you want within reason. I learned fast in the USA I could not do that. I had to be very diplomatic and careful or people would go off at me, i.e., I could not speak freely and speak my mind around people who are into all the politics — unless I could be bothered dealing with a hostile response (especially if I reminded them of the things the USA gets up to around the world, or pointed out the world leading US incarceration rate etc).
That said, I noticed about half of America does not even bother to vote, perhaps because they think it is all BS and does not make a difference. I do not know how Americans will change things domestically and also change how the USA behaves in the world thinking it is the world’s boss. It is only Americans that can do it though.
I saw some studies showing how political outcomes almost always go the way the billionaires want and what they want is usually very different to what regular income people want. They called it a plutocracy and democracy in name only (Princeton and Stanford). Not much will change unless that does. It needs to though, because these politicians who represent corporations instead of the public are leading the country downhill.
can anyone tell me what has happened to auslander?
Knock knock. Who’s there?
Talk, talk, talk… Blah blah blah’
Please Russia stop this nonsense, sending a delegation with 5/6th column individuals in it, lead by a Russian hating / mother-slapper billionaire, in Turkey of all places ?
Must be a joke or prelude of a play for pre-intoxicated patients of the Asylum from hell ?
What about ‘le sang versé’ the blood given from countless Russians life-giving patriots, some murdered ‘a bout-portant’ (point range) from pre-paid and free-loaded Nazis in tandem with the Empire of Lies ?
Let me tell you about street fighting, or what I can remember from the streets of Paris where I grew up as a street-kid, longtime ago… First try never to start a pointless fight (walk away before, without losing face, be the fastest around the block, if need be, when the odds are totally against you) but if you start a fight, be sure you throw the first punch, your best shot, there is no point of niceties in a fight, you aim to finish the fight before it gets too costly to yourself or whatever you fight for. Never turn your back before you know for certain your opponent is disabled, unable to strike, don’t be cocky or too soft, you didn’t want to fight, but once you do, do it right to the end. Talking doesn’t help until the fight is over, if it ever does. Keep calm (le calme plat) remember all you’ve learned from countless encounters, the good the bad and the ugly, it’s all in the fight as well. Trust no-one except your brothers from the streets of no hope, do not talk, brag or fear the next fight, it’s all normal to you, a deja vu, a fait accompli, you didn’t choose your fate but you will embrace it…
Please brother Russians do not let this opportunity slip away from the rumblings of poly-whatever, people of no concern to your sacrifice, the blood given must repaid with honor and fortitude, do not let down those who gave their lives to the Motherland.
I’m not sure why anyone puts any stock whatsoever in talks between Ukraine and Russia. Everyone should know they are for show.
The only meaningful negotiations happen between Russia and the US and whatever creatures are controlling the combined West. That means the only thing that counts is (maybe) Lavrov and Blinken (maybe being if we can even consider the empire agreement capable, which we can’t). Some low-level flunky from the Russian team is not empowered to make any decisions and probably isn’t even privy to Shiogu et al.’s plans. So why anyone is Russia is freaking out about this is somewhat mystifying. Non-entities talking in a 2nd tier country means exactly nothing. Facts on the ground determine outcome. And everyone is deluding themselves if they think this ends without a massive NATO retreat. Russia not taking this to the end means Russia ceases to exist, that simple. Calling a truce and pulling back to some agreed upon territorial concessions? We all know NATOstan won’t abide by any agreement not won by actual defeat on the battlefield, and so they’ll roll their missiles right up to the Dnieper and the new border and begin the process anew. So why even address a non-event?
And besides, seeing as there was reports of missile strikes in Kiev tonight after that announcement of a so-called redeployment away from Kiev, this should be more proof that non-entities from Russia talking to some random nazis who can’t be bothered to wear a suit to a formal event is a nothingburger. There ain’t no fire and there ain’t even any smoke. But the talking does allow the West to show it’s hand some more, so I’m sure it is strategically useful to keep the nobodies talking.
And I again challenge you on the psyop warfare thing Andrei. You can already see that for the last month you’re continually answering zombies stupid questions and nothing ever sinks in. As I have said before, there is no psyop operation that counters decades of massive mind control. This is a cult. Cultists need reprogramming. That can’t be done on Twitter and in sound bites. And the attention span of cultists is zero, so none of them are going to listen to Putin’s long speeches, read any sort of history books, or do anything that involves more than a few seconds of attention. It is a waste of energy to try. Much in the same way when a troll shows up here or Bernard’s site, or Smoothie, etc. and they say dumb shit and we all tune them out because we’re inoculated against their mind virus. Likewise, they’re inoculated against our truth. I mean if you spend a few minutes on Twitter looking at responses from these zombies to true facts that are easily proved you see there is no hope. Cults are broken when their leaders are humiliated and taken off their godlike pedestal and then once they have spent sufficient time being deprogrammed.
The Russians know as well as any of us that American intelligence services merged or absorbed Nazi intelligence services. And they also know said intelligence services began in the 50s conducted all manner of mind control experiments on Americans (and everyone else) using any and all means and they have developed this technology over the decades, boosted exponentially with social media, to the point where they have cult like control of a large swath of the population. To undo that you need….years of re-education, removal of social media and all other technology used in a transhumanist as opposed to humanist way, getting rid of all the environmental poisons and toxins making everyone stupider (probably including the JAB), and then, oh, controlling the entire media sphere. It’s just not happening and there’s no point in it happening. We have a senile POTUS with idiot style flashcards. We just watched an amazingly bizarre scene in Congress today as the FBI was grilled about senile POTUS’s meth-head son’s laptop that has no chain of custody apparently. I mean I can stop right there, right? Senile POTUS and meth-head son–that’s where we’re at and these people think this state of affairs is normal. The sky is green and under your feet, the Earth is rainbow colored and above us, boys are girls and girls are boys, and nothing is real—please tell me how you have an information campaign against such mental illness. I don’t try to explain to any of the rotted brain homeless addicts littering America’s streets about anything–they’re too far gone. That is the condition here. You know it. I know it. Most everyone who comes to your site knows it, and for damn sure Russian intelligence knows it.
These are not merely non-agreement capable people, we’re talking non-reality accepting people. The time for talking will maybe be after Europe goes without heat and lights and gasoline for a few months and when the US devolves into riots over food and gas prices. When they have no choice but to accept reality is a real thing and your beliefs do not keep you warm or fed or with electricity then, sure, that is the time for introducing the fundamentals of reality. Until then? Literally zero point in wasting your breath.
This is an astute and very well-articulated assessment. Thanks.
The actor Zelensky continues to read his lines, written by the playwright–his “progressive New World Order/WEF” bosses in the West.
“Ukraine President Zelenskyy Demands Europe Transition to “Green Energy” Quickly”
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2022/03/29/ukraine-president-zelenskyy-demands-europe-transition-to-green-energy-quickly/
This gives me PTSD.
Remembering how many times Trump started a fight, talked the talk, spent the blood of his supporters and then cucked unbelievably hard.
Showing the letter Z in the wrong” context has been outlawed by some german states now. Seriously! You can be fined and if you can’t pay, you go to jail. The good news is, there still 25 letters left
So you’re saying Russia can get the entire Latin alphabet system banned by her activities….
There are still the letters V & O.
Requiring payment for oil/gas in rubles stuck a dagger in the heart of the existing petro-dollar system. Who knows, maybe they’ll give you Odessa too if you stop the pain.
The information war in the west is to shape public opinion in the west, for what purpose remains to be seen,but most likely to justify the scope of sanctions against Russia.
It wouldn’t matter if the Russians had the best PR on the planet,most in the west are not going to listen to it and less will be influenced by it, so Russia should have known this before entering Ukraine.It should be no surprise.
The stated objective of demilitarising and denazifying is absurd and meaningless
It’s the a coherent objective
Putting all of donbass under Russian control and creating a land bridge and buffer Crimea together with degrading the ability of Ukraine to wage war seems more logical, but it doesn’t stop the rest of ukraine becoming a defacto Nato state anyway, an extension of Poland
The Ukraine operation makes no sense and is exactly why the US wanted Russia to do it since 2014
Pooland can be next cab of the rank. They need a good close haircut at the least. Any missiles in Pooland should be destroyed. That should shut them up – NATO would just do SFA or risk Nuclear.
A big question is who or how any deal is guaranteed? Minsk shows that Germany and France can’t be trusted, they broke all agreements. Could China act as some sort of middle man to ensure any deal done is kept? In return, it would get a share of the rebuilding and redevelopment in some way with the belt and road. It’s a horrible situation that the EU or US can in public offer any deal or concession knowing in private that they will break it as suits. How can Russia trust any treat to be kept after so many were blatantly broken?
Russia pulling back from Kiev the day after war crimes circulate showing russian soldiers massacred is an unmitigated disaster.
If they keep this up they will achieve Biden’s plan over overthrow without him even having to put his teeth back in.
This has been a blow to the morale of everyone supporting Russia.
Strong massive blows are needed.
Don’t worry too much about the negotiations.
1. The Ukrainian prez. has already stated “no-deal, only suggestions” and put up the reservation that any struck deal must be ratified by the Ukrainian people in a referendum (and such cannot take place during a war, seriously).
2. The Ukrainian prez. needs to create an image that he works for the people. Either he must bring gifts to Ukraine or do diplomacy for Ukraine. He is a comedian-PR person and not a “warlord”. He must show that he works hard for Ukraine and delivers something every day. He represents 0,5% of the people and carries the favor of 25% in some kind of election.
3. The Ukrainian prez. doesn’t need the Azov Nazis. They are collateral damage or trade goods, it could even be in his interest to have them eliminated as a competitive faction or power structure of a former government (which he already has put behind bars until the “Russian operation”. It is likely in the interest of the Ukrainian prez. to have the “banderites” replaced with a force of his own, like the “foreign legion” or the prez. own “mercenary division” that was discussed earlier in media.
4. Russia likely needs the talk too, someone must sign the documents, it is important to appear open for negotiations, it is important to know what the different Ukrainian factions want or need. The talks also remind Russians who is in charge.
5. Night time.
Do I detect a creeping in of FUD (fear, uncertainty, doubt) in the Vineyard?
Russia is correct in negotiating with the Ukrainians; in fact I think RF is actually following Clausewitz’s dictum, ‘War is merely a continuation of politics/policy,’ to the hilt in the sense that politics doesn’t stop when hostilities start. The stupidity of not talking to the enemy only came out from the US with Dubya’s misnamed ‘war on terror.’
The way I see it, RF is merely keeping to the form: meeting the Ukrainians, no matter how unsavoury the government they represent, while — perhaps more importantly — at the same time giving tacit support to Turkey’s policy of breaking with Euro Nato consensus. Having said that, it is not entirely a waste of time — it will give RF a further opportunity to understand the Ukraine’s attitudes towards a settlement and the constraints it faces in reaching a settlement. As RF is merely keeping to form in the formal talks, Abramovich’s presence is not terribly significant although he may be playing a useful role behind the scenes as a conduit to other Jewish oligarchs backing Zelensky and the Ukronazis.
I’ve said it before: the problem with the Ukraine will end when the US and RF decide it will end. It is not up to the Europeans (effectively dismissed by Sergei Lavrov as having no agency in the matter), Nato, and certainly not the Ukraine to decide the ‘final solution.’ Does anybody seriously think that RF and the US are not talking to each other still — negotiating, if you like — despite all the uncomplimentary words said about each other?
As for Kiev, ‘reduction in military activities around Kiev and Chernigov’ may simply mean just that. It doesn’t follow that there’ll be a significant reduction in strength of forces. To my mind Kiev is an important symbol — mainly to the Ukrainians, not Russians who have lived with Kiev (with memories of Kievan Rus) being under non-Russian rule, ie ‘not being Russian’, for centuries — and RF has, for all intents and purposes, put it under siege with the aim of putting pressure on the Ukrainian government (potential loss of its main national symbol) and in the process tying down a significant part of Ukrainian forces in the effort to defend it.
I don’t think RF is going to storm Kiev for several reasons — Kiev has no real strategic value in the present SMO, RF is not at war with the Ukraine; it’s going to take a lot of men and materiel, much more than currently employed; it’ll exact a high cost in civilian lives; it’ll entail widespread destruction of physical structures; is going to take a long time; it’ll detract from the aims of the SMO.
There will be no betrayal of RF fighting forces by the diplomats — Putin will not allow it. He has a keen analytical mind, knows who is who in his administration — the eurasianists, the atlanticists, the nationalists, the liberals, and the tall grass who bend with the wind — and he knows that the Ukraine is only the first (or second if we count Syria) duel with the West. There are many more duels to be won and blunting his sabre by betraying the achievements and sacrifices of RF armed forces in the Ukraine is a sure way of losing those duels.
Many have said that Russia is facing an existential threat. I agree with that assessment. Indeed in response to the threat, I see Russia as having embarked on a path to reshape the world order — politically and economically/financially — that gave rise to the threat. RF has taken it upon itself to challenge the Hegemon militarily, this time much closer to home, in the Ukraine. There is no turning back for Russia, I think, and there is no way that the Russian national leadership will allow Russia to disappear from the map. No way.
Thanks, good summary.
I am amazed at how big is the similarity between Russians and the Serbs. Our elites are the same. Our famous field marshal Zivojinovic from WW1 once said: There is no war that Serbs cannot win, and there is no peace that Serb politicians cannot lose.
s+s+s+serbia
I presume you are talking about Field Marshal Živojin Mišić.The was no Field Marshal Živojinović.
I suspect that, along with having “political officers” embedded, Ukrainian forces and civilians are afraid to surrender or at least to stop resisting in case that if they do, they will later be punished when or if Russia withdraws. This will also prevent witnesses to depravity from giving public testimony as they already fear reprisals as it is. There will have to be population redistribution in some form yet.
“PS: and if you wonder what the Nazi crazies are up to, here is a good one: they want to ban the letter “Z”. ”
When my two girls were very little one of their favorite videos was a little story called “The Letter Z Runs Away”, where the last letter of the alphabet does a runner and a bunch of English teachers have to go find it.
My girls were four and five at the time.
That’s the level of political discourse in “the west” right now. Pathetic.
Negotiations are misdirection while the military redeploys.
It’s rather clever of the Russian Chiefs of Staff. The way they started this Special Military Operation was to go in with your big earth tearing, pulverizing equipment, decimate the Ukrainian Armed Forces in a series of ‘ double-envelopment ‘ maneuvers ( pincer tactic). After the Armed Forces of Ukraine fell apart, it was up to the young crazed (when the truth comes they were p1robably on crystal meth)to either fight or go home. These guys were rotten to the core as humans can get.
This is the result of mostly what the Chechen Special Forces and the Russian Naval Marines in Mariupol have been adhering to the de–Nazification of Mariupol. Sad really, how they fell victim, in fact both sides have fallen victims to the evil machinations of the Chosen.
https://southfront.org/pile-of-azov-fighters-corpses-amid-appeal-of-dpr-marine-video-18/